Trump Targets California Again In SpaceX Feud

By Alex Kimani - Jul 01, 2026,

• Trump administration launches a federal investigation into California’s Coastal Commission, escalating battles over offshore oil, wind power, and SpaceX launch approvals.
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• California is fighting back with multiple lawsuits as Washington pushes to revive offshore drilling, cancel wind projects, and redirect billions toward fossil fuel investments.
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• The growing legal showdown could reshape U.S. energy policy, state environmental authority, and the future of California’s clean energy ambitions.

For years, U.S. President Donald Trump has loomed large over California's energy and environmental sectors as he tries to promote fossil fuels and roll back the state’s climate initiatives, with varying degrees of success. Back in 2019, the Trump administration effectively revoked California's federal waiver under the Clean Air Act that allowed the state to set its own stringent greenhouse gas emissions standards. The president has been even more aggressive during his second term. Last year, Trump utilized federal agencies to mandate the reopening of the Sable Offshore platform near Santa Barbara which had been shut down following a major 2015 spill. This directive bypassed state-level environmental blocks, allowing the facility to resume pumping ~50,000 barrels of oil per day. The administration has also allocated well above $2 billion to buy out and terminate offshore wind leases off California's central coast, pivoting investments away from the green initiatives supported by state leadership to fossil fuel production.

And, he’s at it again:  the Trump administration has launched a formal federal investigation into the California Coastal Commission, significantly escalating ongoing battles over offshore energy production, commercial space launches and environmental oversight along the Pacific coastline. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is executing a comprehensive performance evaluation of California’s coastal management program under the federal Coastal Zone Management Act. The federal Commerce Department has cited the Coastal Commission's "unfounded objections" to U.S. Air Force proposals which have threatened to delay or restrict increased commercial space launches by Elon Musk's SpaceX out of Vandenberg Space Force Base, impeding federal space and national security priorities.

Tensions stem from the commission's previous denials of SpaceX's requests to significantly increase Falcon 9 rocket launches at Vandenberg. While SpaceX subsequently filed a federal lawsuit alleging political bias against CEO Elon Musk--which the commission ultimately settled by issuing a formal apology--the Trump administration's current regulatory review seeks to permanently address the state's environmental oversight of space launches. The administration's defense of SpaceX comes despite a highly volatile history between Trump and Musk. The two men engaged in a fierce public feud over a federal spending bill, leading Trump to threaten the cancellation of SpaceX's multi-billion dollar government contracts and Musk to threaten to pull the Dragon spacecraft from NASA missions.

The federal probe follows critical court setbacks for oil interests. A California Appeals Court recently upheld a state injunction blocking Sable Offshore Corp. from repairing and restarting the Santa Ynez pipeline network along the Gaviota Coast. The pipeline has been out of service since the infamous Refugio Beach oil spill in 2015 after ~450,000 gallons of crude oil spilled onto the Gaviota Coast, heavily contaminating coastal ecosystems and forcing beach closures. While the Trump administration previously invoked the Defense Production Act to bypass state authority and restart production, California Attorney General Rob Bonta has so far successfully countered with lawsuits to defend state sovereignty.

In a separate but parallel clash, California is preparing to sue the federal government over its systematic unwinding of renewable energy. Last month, California sent a 60-day notice of intent to sue over Interior Department deals that canceled offshore wind projects and redirected developers to Gulf Coast fossil fuel investments. The state has already issued subpoenas to leaseholders, including Golden State Wind and Invenergy, to investigate the buyouts.

Previously, the Trump administration agreed to pay developer Invenergy $765 million to voluntarily terminate four offshore wind leases. This deal includes one project off the Central Coast of California (Morro Bay), two in the Gulf of Maine, and one in the New York Bight. Under the terms of the deal, Invenergy will redirect the funds toward building natural gas plants in Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Kansas, and Missouri, as well as geothermal energy projects in the Western United States. Back in April, the Golden State Wind project, a 2-gigawatt floating offshore wind farm in California's Morro Bay Wind Energy Area, was officially terminated in April 2026 when developers voluntarily agreed to relinquish their leases. The U.S. Interior Department and Golden State Wind (a joint venture by Ocean Winds and Reventus Power) settled for a payout of approximately $120 million in refunded lease fees. Similar to the Invenergy deal, the reimbursement is strictly conditional, with Golden State Wind required to invest an equal amount in U.S. oil and gas assets, energy infrastructure or LNG projects along the Gulf Coast. Golden State Wind also agreed to abandon any future offshore wind development in the United States.

Finally, California, alongside a coalition of 12 other states, has also filed an ongoing lawsuit in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California against the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Office of Management and Budget. The coalition argues that the termination of $2.7 billion in clean energy and infrastructure awards--including $1.2 billion for California's ARCHES (Alliance for Renewable Clean Hydrogen Energy Systems) clean hydrogen hub--is an unconstitutional violation of the separation of powers and the Administrative Procedure Act. The states assert that because Congress holds the power of the purse and previously appropriated these funds, the executive branch cannot unilaterally terminate the congressionally mandated programs.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

SK and KKR Form $1.3 Billion Renewable Energy Platform in South Korea

By Charles Kennedy - Jul 01, 2026

SK Inc. and private equity firm KKR have agreed to establish what the companies describe as South Korea's largest renewable energy platform, combining solar, wind, and fuel cell assets into a KRW 2 trillion ($1.3 billion) business aimed at supplying clean electricity to the country's rapidly growing industrial sector.

Under definitive agreements announced Tuesday, funds managed by KKR and SK will consolidate renewable energy assets previously owned by several SK affiliates, including SK Innovation, SK ecoplant, and SK eternix, into a single integrated platform. KKR will initially hold management control, while SK will remain an equity investor with the option to pursue control rights in the future.

The platform will launch with approximately 1.7 gigawatts of operating renewable energy capacity and a development pipeline that could expand total capacity to 10 GW. According to the companies, that level of generation would be sufficient to continuously power around 100 large-scale data centers with 100-megawatt capacity each.

The portfolio spans solar, onshore wind, offshore wind and fuel cell projects, excluding hydrogen, and is intended to integrate the full renewable energy value chain from project development and construction to operations and maintenance.

The investment comes as South Korea faces rising electricity demand driven by the expansion of AI data centers, semiconductor fabrication plants and other energy-intensive industries. Growing corporate demand for clean power has also increased interest in renewable generation as companies seek to meet decarbonization targets while securing reliable electricity supplies.

KKR said the investment will be funded primarily through its Asia Pacific infrastructure strategy. The firm has invested more than $31 billion in energy transition and renewable infrastructure globally since 2011 and has backed similar industrial clean energy platforms across the Asia-Pacific region, including India's Serentica Renewables and Australia's CleanPeak Energy and Zenith Energy.

For SK, the transaction forms part of a broader portfolio restructuring designed to improve capital efficiency while strengthening its renewable energy business. The company said combining its renewable assets with KKR's capital and infrastructure expertise would help position the platform to meet long-term demand for clean electricity in South Korea's industrial sector.

The deal also deepens an existing relationship between SK and KKR, which have previously collaborated on multiple investments. Financial terms beyond the platform's overall valuation were not disclosed.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

CU

Codelco debt and high costs hurt competitiveness, document says

Reuters | July 2, 2026 | 

Photo by Codelco

Chile’s state-run copper giant Codelco sees soaring costs, which are over one-and-a-half times above its global rivals, and heavy debt are the main challenges to the struggling company’s competitiveness, according to an internal document seen by Reuters.

The document said that, compared with industry rivals, Codelco has “significantly higher” costs, with a direct cost (C1) 57% higher than major international mining companies and 72% higher than the main national operations.

“The main competitive gap identified by the comparison is concentrated in operational costs, which remain significantly above international and national benchmarks,” the report said.

The analysis also highlighted that the company’s net debt to EBITDA is 3.8x, compared to 0.7x for global mining and 0.5x for the industry in Chile.

Despite losing its spot as world’s largest copper producer in 2025, the report showed that the quality of its mining resources weren’t the main detriment compared to competitors.

The document showed that Codelco’s average ore grade was 0.62% compared to 0.59% at its global counterparts, despite being below the 0.80% of other miners in Chile.

“Codelco’s main challenges are focused on increasing operational competitiveness, improving profitability and increasing the return on the significant investments made, rather than on its production scale or the quality of its resource base,” the report said.

It added that comparisons showed that there are “significant room for improvement in productivity, operational efficiency, and economic performance.”

In its latest earnings, the company said it faced rising costs across several of its mines for varying reasons, including the fatal accident in El Teniente, poor ore grade in Ministro Hales and maintenance costs in Chuquicamata, El Salvador and Gabriela mistral.

The results said costs also rose due to currency appreciation, the rising cost of materials and lower production.

After a scandal involving inflated production figures, Codelco’s new chairman, Bernardo Fontaine, has said he’s reviewing all the company’s operations and projects to restructure its investment and production plans.

Codelco, by law, must return all its profits to the state and debt has become its main source of financing. That debt has also ballooned due to its multi-billion mine expansion projects that were intended to counteract declining ore grades but have been plagued by missteps, cost overruns and accidents.

(By Fabian Cambero; Editing by Alexander Villegas and Nick Zieminski)

BHP seeks to restart Cerro Colorado mine with $1.5B investment

Staff Writer | July 2, 2026 | 

Cerro Colorado mine in Chile. (Image by Zwansaurio | Flickr Commons)

BHP (ASX: BHP) has begun the process to reopen the Cerro Colorado copper mine in Chile, targeting an investment of $1.5 billion to keep the operation running for 20 years.

On Wednesday, the Australian miner said it has applied for a new environmental permit for Cerro Colorado. Located in the Atacama Desert, the mine is part of BHP’s Pampa Norte division in northern Chile that also includes the Spence operation.

The copper mine has been closed since late 2023 after it was denied its water permit following protests by local communities.

In an attempt to restart the operation, BHP said it would explore the use of leaching technologies and desalinated water. Under its application, it laid out plans to use treated wastewater transported through a pipeline of more than 100 km from the municipality of Alto Hospicio to the mine site.

This initiative, according to the company, would enable the mine to run for 20 years. Its total cost is estimated at $1.5 billion.

BHP had previously planned to reboot the Cerro Colorado operation by the end of this decade. The mine represents a small part of its Chilean portfolio, in comparison to the giant Escondida mine and the nearby Spence growth project.

 

Antofagasta agrees spot-indexed copper ore sales with some Chinese smelters

Reuters | July 1, 2026 | 

Centinela copper mine. (Image courtesy of Minera Centinela.)

Chilean miner Antofagasta has agreed to sell term copper concentrate supplies to some Chinese smelters at spot-indexed prices with a guaranteed floor, industry information provider SMM reported on Wednesday.

The reported deal would mark a break with a decades-old practice under which miners sell term supplies at fixed treatment and refining charges (TC/RC) that serve as a global benchmark.

Antofagasta said its negotiations were confidential and it did not discuss them with third parties.

Miners typically pay TC/RCs to smelters to process copper concentrate into refined metal, but charges on the spot market have been deeply negative in recent months due to a shortage of ore.

That has left smelters paying to process material and increased pressure on the benchmark, which was set at zero for 2026 and has already been abandoned by some miners.

Chinese smelters had resisted Antofagasta’s proposal to switch to spot-indexed pricing in mid-year negotiations over term supply, arguing it would reduce pricing certainty.

However, after Antofagasta insisted on the change, the two sides reached an “innovative compromise” under which TC/RCs would be linked to an index while also being subject to a guaranteed floor, SMM said.

The arrangement means Antofagasta cannot sell term concentrate to smelters at TC/RCs below a specified level.

Spot TCs were around minus $126.80 a metric ton at the end of last week, according to Argus.

The SMM report did not say at what level the floor would be set.

(By Tom Daly, Lewis Jackson and Amy Lv; Editing by Mark Potter)

Chile’s copper output, manufacturing production plummet in May

Reuters | June 30, 2026 | 

Chuquicamata smelter. (Image courtesy of Codelco | Flickr.)

Manufacturing production in Chile posted its largest decline in over three years in May, weighed down by weak data from the fishing industry, data from the statistics agency INE agency showed on Tuesday.

The country’s manufacturing output was down 7.2% in the month on a yearly basis, the sharpest decline since November 2022. The data also declined more than expected, economists polled by Reuters anticipated a 2.5% decrease.

The decline was largely driven by a 10.9% year-over-year drop in food manufacturing due to lower fish production, INE said in a statement.

The fishing industry has faced “adverse weather conditions that reduced the availability of biomass in the usual fishing areas,” the agency added.

Moreover, copper output in the Andean nation , the world’s largest producer of the metal, fell 12.9% year-on-year in May to 423,623 metric tons.

(By Natailia Ramos and Aida Pelaez-Fernandez; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)

Why Germany is turning to Algeria for Europe's hydrogen future

Germany is strengthening its energy partnership with Algeria, as Europe searches for new long-term energy supplies and invests in renewable hydrogen to help cut emissions.

Issued on: 28/06/2026 - 

Algeria is emerging as an important partner in Europe's renewable hydrogen plans, with Germany and Algeria this month signing two new energy agreements. AFP - LUDOVIC MARIN

Two agreements signed in Algiers last week mark the latest step in a relationship that has grown steadily in recent years.

One will help modernise Algeria's electricity grid so it can integrate more renewable energy. The other aims to develop green hydrogen projects and reduce methane emissions.

Together, they reflect Germany's search for future low-emission energy supplies and Algeria's ambition to diversify its energy production.

The first deal launched DigiEnR, a German-funded project to modernise Algeria's electricity grid as the country expands renewable energy. The project will digitalise the network and make it easier to connect new energy systems.

"The industrial and technical partnership between Algiers and Berlin has entered a new era," Algeria's Energy Ministry said in a statement after the agreement was signed on 15 June.

The second deal brought together Algeria's state-owned energy company Sonatrach and German energy company VNG AG.

It expands an earlier partnership on green hydrogen and broadens it to include efforts to reduce methane emissions and explore future hydrogen supplies to Europe.

Beyond natural gas

One goal is to find out whether Algeria could become a future supplier of green hydrogen to Europe, particularly Germany. The companies will study how the fuel could be produced, delivered and eventually carried through parts of Algeria's existing gas infrastructure.

For VNG, Algeria's potential makes it an important long-term partner.

"The demand for low-emission energy sources in Germany and Europe is steadily increasing," VNG board member Hans-Joachim Polk said. "Europe will continue to rely heavily on imports. Algeria offers significant long-term potential."

Sonatrach said the renewed partnership reflected both companies' shared commitment to addressing the challenges facing the energy sector.

"We intend to build upon our previous successes and explore new synergies in the production and transportation of green hydrogen and its derivatives, as well as in reducing methane emissions."

Why hydrogen matters

Hydrogen has become a central part of Europe's plan to reduce emissions from industries that are difficult to run on electricity alone, including steel and chemicals.

Green hydrogen is made using electricity from renewable sources to separate hydrogen from water. European governments hope it can help industries lower emissions while supporting the shift away from fossil fuels.

The EU also sees renewable hydrogen as one way to reduce dependence on imported fossil fuels. In May, the European Commission approved a €1.3 billion German support scheme to boost renewable hydrogen production through the European Hydrogen Bank.

The programme forms part of the EU's Hydrogen Strategy and its REPowerEU plan, which aims to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels while strengthening Europe's energy security.

Algeria is also expected to play a role beyond its partnership with Germany. Since 2024, it has worked with several European countries on the SoutH2 Corridor, a planned 3,300-kilometre pipeline designed to transport green hydrogen from North Africa to Europe.

The hydrogen industry has expanded across Europe in 2026, with new projects announced in several countries. But many projects still face high costs, uncertain demand and the need for new infrastructure.

Germany and Algeria have steadily expanded their cooperation in recent years. Last year's first German-Algerian investment summit produced agreements covering industry and digital technology.

The two countries are expected to deepen those ties further during Algerian President Abdelmajid Tebboune's first state visit to Germany in mid-July.

NASA’s New Horizons Research Team Extends Key Observations Of Interstellar Material Slowing The Solar Wind

June 30, 2026 
By Eurasia Review

A new Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) study based on data from NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft has uncovered fascinating insights into why the solar wind gradually slows as it moves toward the edge of the solar system and the boundary with interstellar space.

New Horizons is currently roughly 66 AU from the Sun. One AU, the distance from the Earth to the Sun, is roughly 93 million miles. The researchers, led by SwRI’s Dr. Heather Elliott, studied how the solar wind’s speed, measured by the Solar Wind Around Pluto (SWAP) instrument on New Horizons, changed between 21 and 58 AU compared to measurements taken nearer the Sun.

“As the solar wind travels away from the Sun at supersonic speeds, roughly 1 million miles per hour, eventually it encounters incoming interstellar neutral gas particles entering the heliosphere,” Elliott said. “These neutral interstellar atoms become ionized via charge exchange with solar wind ions, adding mass to the solar wind by picking up interstellar material that slows the solar wind down.”

Previously, New Horizons and Voyager 2 measurements between 30 and 43 AU indicated the solar wind was 5 to 10% slower than at 1 AU near Earth. Now, New Horizons researchers found at 58 AU that the solar wind is 13 to 15% slower than the wind at 1 AU. This gradual slowdown aligns with previous models of how interstellar material enters the heliosphere and affects the solar wind. It also demonstrates how the Sun’s influence decreases over long distances.


This gradual decrease in speed pales in comparison with the sharp drop in speed expected when New Horizons eventually reaches the heliosphere’s Termination Shock (TS), which is where solar particles rapidly drop in speed to less than the local plasma (solar wind and interstellar pickup ions combined) speed of sound. The termination shock is a stark indication that the incoming interstellar material heavily affects the properties of the solar wind as it nears the outer boundary of the heliosphere. Voyager 2 measured a sharp 46% drop in speed at the termination shock at a distance of 84 AU.

“Eventually, the solar wind reaches the outer boundaries of the heliosphere — the sphere of influence where the solar wind affects the space environment — where it interacts with incoming interstellar material. The shape and properties of these heliospheric boundaries control the amount of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) that can enter our solar system and reach Earth,” Elliott said. “Therefore, the data from New Horizons combined with observations from other missions, such as IBEX, IMAP and Voyager will enhance our understanding of the edge of the solar system.”

This is important for astronauts working outside of Earth’s protective atmosphere on the Moon, and eventually on humanity’s journey to Mars, because GCRs pose one of the most severe risks to long-term space travel. They can increase cancer risk in travelers and negatively impact technology.


“This new data could be highly beneficial in predicting the outer boundaries of the heliosphere and solar system and ultimately the amount of GCR radiation exposure of astronauts, satellites and spacecraft to harmful cosmic radiation, especially as we look toward more ambitious deeper-space exploration,” Elliott said.

These findings also provide insights into astrospheres, the protective heliosphere-like bubbles generated by other stars in the galaxy. Astrospheres share many similarities with the Sun’s heliosphere and could help us understand how other stars interact with the interstellar material surrounding their systems.

“Studying the heliosphere is like solving a cosmic puzzle,” said Elliott. “Not only do we learn more about how the Sun’s influence ends, but we also gain a deeper understanding of the boundary between our solar system and interstellar space — a critical step toward planning future interstellar travel.”

“NASA’s New Horizons continues to be the only spacecraft in the Sun’s outer heliosphere and yielding important new insights to build on what the venerable Voyager probes discovered,” said SwRI Associate Vice President Dr. Alan Stern, the Principal Investigator of the New Horizons mission. “Our studies of the heliosphere, like this one, are virtually continuous and provide crucial new datasets to better understand the Sun’s outer heliosphere and its termination region far beyond Pluto’s orbit.”

The Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory in Laurel, Maryland, designed, built and operates the New Horizons spacecraft and leads the mission for NASA’s Science Mission Directorate. The Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) Planetary Management Office in Huntsville, Alabama provides NASA oversight for New Horizons. Southwest Research Institute, based in San Antonio, directs the mission via Principal Investigator Dr. Alan Stern, who leads the science team, payload operations and science planning. New Horizons is part of the New Frontiers Program managed by NASA’s MSFC.

SwRI built, calibrated and operates the New Horizons solar wind instrument Solar Wind Around Pluto (SWAP). This research is part of the NASA Solar wind with Hydrogen Ion charge Exchange and Large-Scale Dynamics Heliophysics Drive Center (SHIELD) led by Boston University, which models the outer boundaries of the heliosphere to understand how Galactic Cosmic Rays enter our heliosphere.

Will the Germans or South Koreans emerge as Canada’s sub deal winner?

By

Judy Trinh

Opens in new window

Updated: June 29, 2026 

OTTAWA -- Choosing the winning bid for Canada’s next generation submarine fleet is coming down to the wire. Analysts say the race between the two contenders, German-Norwegian consortium ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS) and South Korea’s Hanwha, is too close to call.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has previously said that a decision would be made before the end of June, but sources tell CTV News that the announcement will be delayed a few days. It will likely come before Carney leaves for the July 7 NATO leaders’ summit in Ankara, Türkiye.

The HMCS Chicoutimi seen departing Thursday, March 2, 2017, during then-prime minister Justin Trudeau's visit to CFB Esquimalt in Esquimalt, B.C. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

The members of the alliance are under pressure from the United States to map out how they will reach the new defence spending target of five per cent of their gross domestic product by 2035. Earlier in June, U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said NATO partners must show a “credible plan” at the summit of how they will spend at least 3.5 per cent of GDP on core defence such as troops, weapons and equipment.

Only one of the Royal Canadian Navy’s existing four Victoria class submarine is operational. The others are under maintenance.

Canada’s patrol submarine project involves procuring up to 12 submarines and paying for 30-50 years of maintenance. The contract over its entire lifespan has an estimated value of more than $100 billion. The submarines are expected to be a primary example of how Canada plans to increase its spending to reach the new NATO target.

Last week, Defence Minister David McGuinty said it’s unlikely that the submarine contract will be split between the two competitors because it would make it more expensive and harder to manage.

“If you split a fleet of any kind, you end up in many ways with compounding costs. You need to service, you need to maintain, you need to sustain two different fleets. That’s a more complicated matter for any country,” McGuinty said from Tokyo, where he was participating in a trade mission. “But we’re evaluating all these things, and we’ll see when we get there.”

Dan Kerry, a defence analyst with Deloitte, calls this a “procurement with purpose.”

“We’re looking not just to purchase a submarine, but we’re entering into a long-term economic and military engagement,” Kerry said in a Zoom interview.

“I would say that the reason we haven’t had a winner yet is because it’s incredibly close. Both are incredibly capable submarines, and both companies have put on very strong economic and political offers to Canada.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney climbs out of a 212A class submarine under maintenance as he tours ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems (TKMS), a submarine building facility in Kiel, Germany, on Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

How will they be judged?

The Defence Investment Agency, a newly created body, is responsible for evaluating the two bids.

Doug Guzman is the agency’s CEO. He was appointed by the prime minister and has three decades of experience in the global banking and financial sectors but does not have procurement experience.

The federal government’s evaluation criteria is divided into four sections:

• Submarine platform, weighted 20 per cent. This would pertain to the technical aspects of the vessel.
• Sustainment, weighted 50 per cent and includes the maintenance plans over the submarine’s lifespan.
• Financial, weighted 15 per cent and includes how much it would cost to build the submarine.
• Strategic and Economic Partnerships, weighted 15 per cent.

Guzman has said that the two foreign competitors need to put as many Canadian elements in their bids as possible if they want to win.

TKMS and Hanwha submitted their bids on March 2. The two suppliers were then given an extension until April 29 to sweeten their bids.

“We’re starting at the pointy end of the spear, which is the folks that are trying to sell us stuff, and we’re looking them in the eye and saying ‘you need to make that as Canadian as you can if you want to be favoured in the process,’” Guzman said during his April appearance before the House Standing Committee on National Defence.

Prime Minister Mark Carney smiles as he climbs down a ladder into a submarine during a tour of the Hanwha Ocean Shipyard in Geoje Island, South Korea, on Thursday, Oct. 30, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Who can deliver the subs faster?

The Royal Canadian Navy plans to retire its aging fleet of submarines in 2035. A submarine takes about six years to build.

The South Koreans have already sailed the KSS-III across the Pacific to show it off, while the Type 212-CD has yet to roll off a German assembly line.

Hanwha says it can deliver Canada its first replacement submarine by 2032, and three more by 2035. The company says that each submarine will cost around $2 billion to build, and that early replacement of its aging Victoria class fleet will save taxpayers approximately $1 billion in maintenance costs.

TKMS has not provided CTV News a cost estimate for its vessels but has said it is willing to speed up delivery of the submarines by moving up Canadian orders in its production queue.

The German shipbuilder says it can deliver four submarines to the Canadian navy by 2036.

The Germans and Norwegians are offering to “sail together” on their boats as one NATO allied unit and give Canada access to TKMS facilities in Europe, India and Singapore.

“We make clear this is not only about economic benefits, that this is about strategic advantages,” German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said during a visit to Ottawa earlier in June.

“It’s all about unity of the fleet – about interoperability.”

Meanwhile, the Republic of Korea Navy has offered to provide 200 Canadian submariners with a training facility equipped with a tactical simulator on its navy base in Jinhae.

Prime Minister Mark Carney, right, and ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems CEO Oliver Burkhardt, centre, speak with Captain Jeremy in front of a 212A class submarine under maintenance as they tour the submarine building facility in Kiel, Germany on Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christinne Muschi

Economic impact

Both defence corporations are promising thousands of jobs and billions in economic spinoffs but are using different calculations.

Hanwha says it has signed more than 80 partnerships, which according to accounting firm KPMG could turn into more than $70 billion in economic opportunities, with 430,000 jobs projected to be created from 2026 to 2044.

Over those 18 years, Hanwha’s investments could contribute $96.3 billion to Canada’s gross domestic product.

TKMS also put out its economic projections this week. It has inked 19 memorandums of understanding and says there are more partnerships that it has signed but has yet to make public.

There are several instances of Canadian partners playing both sides and signing MOUs with the South Koreans and the Germans.

TKMS is pledging $160 billion in economic activity, $86 billion in GDP and more than 650,000 jobs over the entire project. However, it did not provide a time frame for its calculations. The lifespan of one submarine can range between 30 and 50 years.

National Defence Minister David McGuinty, back left to right, South Korea Prime Minister Kim Min-seok, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Hahnwa Group Vice-Chariman Kim Dong Kwan speak amongst themselves after touring a submarine at the Hanwha Ocean Shipyard in Geoje Island, South Korea, Thursday Oct. 30, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld

Industrial benefits for key sectors

The federal government has been clear that it wants to see economic benefits in the bids that can help the industries hurt most by the U.S. tariff war such as steel, aluminum, autos and forestry.

Industry Minister Melanie Joly has signed similar agreements with both South Korea and Germany to increase collaboration in the auto sector, which includes advancing hydrogen-powered and electric vehicle manufacturing opportunities and battery production.

Sources previously told CTV News that TKMS did not have a vehicle component to its initial bid. It’s unclear if the proposal was revised to include autos after the deadline extension.

Meanwhile, Hanwha has two auto sector lifelines incorporated into its bid.

The South Koreans have offered to build hydrogen trucks and infrastructure in Canada as part of its Project Beaver proposal. The Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association (APMA) also entered into a partnership with Hanwha to build armoured vehicles. The agreement gives the APMA 51 per cent ownership and would use materials from Algoma steel in constructing the howitzers.

Both the Germans and the Koreans are proposing to manufacture torpedoes in Canada and buy billions in liquified natural gas.

According to CBC News, the German government is backing major investments in the Port of Churchill in Manitoba to help get critical minerals and LNG to market. It also wants to invest in a carbon capture facility in Alberta.

The Royal Canadian Navy hosts the Republic of Korea Navy KSS-III submarine, known as Dosan Ahn Chang-ho, and the ROKS Daejeon frigate during a welcome ceremony at CFB Esquimalt in Esquimalt, B.C., on Monday, May 25, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito

NATO and Europe vs. Indo-Pacific

While the focus of the federal government during this trade war has been on economic benefits, analysts say Carney may make his final decision based on a political calculation. Does he go with what is tried and true, or does he chart a new course?

David Perry, president of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute, says that the German-Norwegian proposal has the advantage of “familiarity from the NATO context and of what Canada works with in terms of that operational interoperability framework.”

Perry says the German-Norwegian consortium provides an opportunity to have more ready access towards northern operations, which is important to Canada’s arctic defence strategy.

However, Perry points out that if the government were to select Hanwha, it would be a “tangible expression of a really concrete defence linkage across the Pacific.”

“If we were to get a major source of supply from Korea, that would really go a long way to putting some significant teeth into our Indo-Pacific strategy.”

Perry said choosing the Korean bid would also provide greater access to Asia-Pacific region where the economy is expanding at  faster rates.

The International Monetary Fund projects growth across the Indo-Pacific region between four and six per cent compared to the sluggish EU at 1.3 per cent.

Regardless of which company is chosen, whether TKMS or Hanwha, Perry says Canadians will benefitOpens in new window

Judy Trinh

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Senior Correspondent, CTV National News