COLD WAR 2.0

Danish military says it’s monitoring Chinese ship closely after undersea cables severed


Denmark's navy said Wednesday that it was shadowing Chinese cargo vessel Yi Peng 3, which is anchored off the Danish coast. While the navy has not given any reason for its presence near the idle ship, the announcement comes a day after Finland and Sweden opened investigations into the suspected sabotage of two undersea fibre-optic cables.


Issued on: 20/11/2024 -
By: NEWS WIRES
Video by: Camille KNIGHT

01:33

Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 sails under the Great Belt bridge, in Korsor, Denmark, November 19, 2024. © Yoruk Isik, Reuters


The Danish military said on Wednesday that it was staying close to a Chinese ship currently sitting idle in Danish waters, days after two fibre-optic data telecommunication cables in the Baltic Sea were severed.

Chinese bulk carrier Yi Peng 3 was anchored in the Kattegat strait between Denmark and Sweden on Wednesday, with a Danish navy patrol ship at anchor nearby, MarineTraffic vessel tracking data showed.

"The Danish Defence can confirm that we are present in the area near the Chinese ship Yi Peng 3," the military said in a post on social media X, adding it had no further comments.

It is quite rare for Denmark's military to comment publicly on individual vessels travelling in Danish waters. It did not mention the cable breaches or say why it was staying with the ship.

Swedish police later told news agency TT they were also interested in the Yi Peng 3, adding there might be other vessels of interest to Sweden's investigation.

The Chinese ship left the Russian port of Ust-Luga on Nov.

15 and was in the areas where the cable damages occurred, according to traffic data, which showed other ships to have been in the areas too.

One cable running between Sweden and Lithuania was cut on Sunday and another one between Finland and Germany was severed less than 24 hours later on Monday.

The breaches happened in Sweden's exclusive economic zone and Swedish prosecutors started a preliminary investigation on Tuesday on suspicion of possible sabotage.

Swedish Civil Defence Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin told Reuters on Tuesday that the country's armed forces and coastguard had picked up ship movements that corresponded with the interruption of two telecoms cables in the Baltic Sea.

A Chinese government spokesperson told a daily news briefing on Wednesday that it always required its vessels to abide by relevant laws and regulations.

"We also attach great importance to the protection of seabed infrastructure and, together with the international community, we are actively promoting the construction and protection of submarine cables and other global information infrastructures," the spokesperson said.

European governments accused Russia on Tuesday of escalating hybrid attacks on Ukraine's Western allies, but stopped short of directly accusing Russia of destroying the cables.

Asked about the matter on Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told a regular news briefing: "It is quite absurd to continue to blame Russia for everything without any reason."

(Reuters)

Danish PM ‘Not Surprised’ If Sabotage Caused Subsea Cable Damage

By Sanne Wass

November 20, 2024

Mette Frederiksen (Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg)

(Bloomberg) -- Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said she would not be taken aback if the severing of two data cables in the Baltic Sea a few days ago was found to be intentional.

“If the immediate assessment is that this is sabotage, and that it comes from outside, then it is obviously serious. I am not surprised that it could happen,” Frederiksen according to a report by news agency Ritzau on Wednesday.

A high-speed data cable connecting Finland and Germany was cut early Monday by what was likely an external impact, according to Finnish authorities. That incident and damage to a nearby link between Lithuania and Sweden, uncovered Sunday, are being probed by Swedish police as possible sabotage, and German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Tuesday said the events have to be investigated as such an act.

There’s a high likelihood that a 1,200-kilometer (750-mile) high-speed fiber optic Helsinki-Rostock link serving data centers is completely cut as all of its fiber connections are down, its owner Cinia Oy has said. A repair ship expected to reach the site next week is due to try and identify what caused the breakage.

All four nations affected by cable breaches are also members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Just over a year ago, the anchor of a passing ship severed two data cables and a gas pipeline on the seabed of the Gulf of Finland, and the military bloc pledged to respond if the damage proved to be intentional.

In his remarks, Pistorius pointed to Russia as posing a hybrid and military threat to the European Union. Russia has denied involvement in any of the incidents.

©2024 Bloomberg L.P.

After Subsea Cable Damage, Five Nations Warn of Russian Hybrid Warfare

Comms cables on the seabed (USN file image)

Published Nov 19, 2024 11:26 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

 

On Tuesday, just days after two Baltic subsea cables were severed in a suspected intentional attack, five European countries issued a condemnation of Russian espionage activities within the EU. The message addressed a broad, ongoing campaign of Russian sabotage operations against Ukraine's allies. 

"Russia is systematically attacking European security architecture. Moscow’s escalating hybrid activities against NATO and EU countries are also unprecedented in their variety and scale, creating significant security risks," the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Britain said in a statement after a meeting in Warsaw. "We are determined to stand united with our European and transatlantic partners to think and act big on European security."

The two subsea cables were cut last weekend in back-to-back incidents. On Sunday morning at 0800, a subsea fiber connection between Lithuania and the strategic island of Gotland, Sweden went out of service due to physical damage. Overnight, the C-Lion1 cable between Finland and Germany was also severed.  According to Finland's state telecom company, Cinia, the line may have been cut by an "outside force." 

Carl-Oskar Bohlin, Sweden's civil defense minister, said Tuesday that there were notable ship movements in the vicinity of the cable damage sites at the time of the outages. Without identifying the vessels, he said that "we of course take this very seriously against the background of the serious security situation."

Open source intelligence analysts have identified a possible suspect vessel, the bulker Yi Peng 3, which displayed unusual course and speed changes while on an outbound voyage from St. Petersburg at the time of the outages. The ship was intercepted by the Danish Navy, and as of Tuesday it was anchored in the Kattegat. 

European security officials suspect that the cable breaks were acts of sabotage, and though they have not identified a culprit, Russia ranks high on the list: it has a strong motive due to European support for Ukraine, a recent history of covert attacks on EU targets, and well-developed technical capabilities for seabed warfare. 

"No one believes that these cables were accidentally damaged. And I don't want to believe in the versions that anchors are to blame," said German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius on Tuesday. "So we have to conclude, without knowing who did that, that this is a hybrid action. And we also have to assume, without knowing, of course, that this is sabotage."

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans edged closer to naming Russia as a primary suspect. "We see increasing activity of especially Russia on our seas, aimed at espionage and possibly even sabotage of our vital infrastructure," he noted in comments to the Dutch press on Tuesday. 

The last major subsea infrastructure incident in the Baltic occurred in October 2023, and it was attributed to a Chinese container ship, the NewNew Polar Bear. As the vessel transited across the northeastern Baltic Sea towards St. Petersburg, it trailed an anchor along the bottom for hundreds of nautical miles, rupturing the Baltic connector gas pipeline and severing two fiber-optic cables. 

A far larger attack on the Nord Stream pipeline system in 2022 has not been formally solved, but multiple investigations point towards Ukrainian actors, potentially with government backing. 

Two Baltic Subsea Cables Likely Severed by "Outside Forces"

C-Lion1's route (Openstreetmap / CC-BY-SA 2.0)

Published Nov 18, 2024 5:48 PM by The Maritime Executive

 

Two Baltic subsea cables connecting four different NATO nations have likely been severed, according to officials in Finland and Sweden.

The first fiber-optic line in question is the C-Lion1 cable, which runs about 750 miles from Helsinki, Finland to Rostock, Germany. According to Finland's state telecom company, Cinia, the line may have been cut by an "outside force." A cable ship is preparing to get under way to make repairs, but fixing the damage could take up to two weeks. 

At about 0800 GMT on Sunday, a subsea fiber connection between Lithuania and the strategic island of Gotland, Sweden also went out of service, according to Swedish telco Telia. By the nature of the failure, the company believes that the cause was physical damage to the cable, a spokesperson told CNN. 

Suspicion immediately turned to "intentional damage," and to Russia. "Our European security is not only under threat from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine, but also from hybrid warfare by malicious actors," the Finnish and German foreign ministers said Monday in a joint statement. "Safeguarding our shared critical infrastructure is vital to our security and the resilience of our societies."

Subsea fiber optic infrastructure is an attractive target: it can be attacked covertly with deniable methods, it is hard to defend, and - if enough damage is done all at once - an interruption could have a major impact on Western economies. 

In September, U.S. officials warned that Russia has increased its military activity near strategic subsea cables. The Russian military has been actively mapping NATO members' subsea infrastructure, maintains extensive capabilities for covert subsea interference, and has a motive for gray-zone retribution due to ongoing European support for Ukraine. It would not be a first: Russian intelligence agencies like the GRU are believed to be behind a series of recent sabotage attacks across Europe, likely connected to the EU's backing for Kyiv. "We've seen arson, sabotage and more," UK intelligence chief Ken McCallum said in October. "Dangerous actions, conducted with increasing recklessness."

 

Can sown wildflowers compensate for cities’ lack of natural meadows to support pollinating insects?

Wiley

In a study published in Ecological Entomology, a journal from the Royal Entomological Society, researchers assessed whether a shortage of natural meadows in urban spaces for pollinating insects might be addressed by creating meadows where wildflowers are planted or sown among grasses.

The research, which was conducted in Warsaw, Poland, showed no difference in the composition of insect-pollinated plants between these two meadow types. There was also no difference between the meadow types concerning the species richness of butterflies, bees, and hoverflies. The number of butterflies was twice as high in natural meadows than it was in sown floral meadows, however. No such differences were found for wild bees and hoverflies.

“The proper management of urban greenery involves combining the well-being of city residents and the protection of habitats. In this way, we can alleviate the hostile environment of urban space for wildlife,” the authors wrote. “Our research has shown that sowing flower meadows may be such a method.”

URL upon publication: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/een.13396

 

Additional Information
NOTE: The information contained in this release is protected by copyright. Please include journal attribution in all coverage. For more information or to obtain a PDF of any study, please contact: Sara Henning-Stout, newsroom@wiley.com.

About the Journal
Ecological Entomology is a leading journal focusing on original research concerning insects and related invertebrates' ecology. Aimed at ecologists driven by ecological or evolutionary theory, we prioritize innovative contributions testing specific hypotheses. Our journal publishes full-length Original Articles, Reviews, Short Communications, and Methods papers, all intended to advance the field of ecological entomology.

About Wiley      
Wiley is one of the world’s largest publishers and a trusted leader in research and learning. Our industry-leading content, services, platforms, and knowledge networks are tailored to meet the evolving needs of our customers and partners, including researchers, students, instructors, professionals, institutions, and corporations. We empower knowledge-seekers to transform today’s biggest obstacles into tomorrow’s brightest opportunities. For more than two centuries, Wiley has been delivering on its timeless mission to unlock human potential. Visit us at Wiley.com. Follow us on Facebook, X, LinkedIn and Instagram.

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Journal

Ecological Entomology

DOI

10.1111/een.13396 

Article Title

Sown wildflower meadows: Can they replace natural meadows in urban spaces for bees, butterflies, and hoverflies?

Article Publication Date

20-Nov-2024

 

Climate change and air pollution could risk 30 million lives annually by 2100

New study projects a sharp rise in temperature- and pollution-related mortality, with the impact of temperature surpassing that of pollution for a fifth of the global population.

Max Planck Institute for Chemistry

The researchers base their calculations on projections from 2000 to 2090, analyzed in ten-year intervals. “In 2000, around 1.6 million people died each year due to extreme temperatures, both cold and heat. By the end of the century, in the most probable scenario, this figure climbs to 10.8 million, roughly a seven-fold increase. For air pollution, annual deaths in 2000 were about 4.1 million. By the century's close, this number rises to 19.5 million, a five-fold increase,” explains Dr. Andrea Pozzer, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and adjunct associate professor at The Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus.

The study shows significant regional differences in future mortality rates. South and East Asia are expected to face the strongest increases, driven by aging of the population, with air pollution still playing a major role. In contrast, in high-income regions—such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia, and Asia Pacific—deaths related to extreme temperatures are expected to surpass those caused by air pollution. In some countries within these regions, such as the United States, England, France, Japan and New Zealand, this shift is already occurring. The disparity is likely to grow, with extreme temperatures becoming a more significant health risk than air pollution also in countries of Central and Eastern Europe (e.g., Poland and Romania) and parts of South America (e.g., Argentina and Chile).

By the end of the century, temperature-related health risks are expected to outweigh those linked to air pollution for a fifth of the world’s population, underscoring the urgent need for comprehensive actions to mitigate this growing public health risk.

“Climate change is not just an environmental issue; it is a direct threat to public health,” says Andrea Pozzer. “These findings highlight the critical importance of implementing decisive  mitigation measures now to prevent future loss of life”, adds Jean Sciare, director of the Climate and Atmosphere Research Center (CARE-C) of The Cyprus Institute, key contributor to the study.

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Journal

Nature Communications

DOI

10.1038/s41467-024-53649-9 

Article Title

Atmospheric health burden across the century and the accelerating impact of temperature compared to pollution

 

Teenage truancy rates rise in English-speaking countries

University College London

Working paper | Quantitative data analysis | People

Truancy rates have risen faster in developed English-speaking countries since the Covid-19 pandemic than in non-English-speaking countries, according to a new working paper by UCL researchers.

Teenage girls are also increasingly more likely to skip school than boys across Anglophone countries.

In 2022, 26% of all Year 11 pupils in England reported playing truant at least once in the last fortnight. This represented an increase from 2012 and 2018, the previous data capture points, when the figure was at 18% each time.

In the same year (2022), 29% of Year 11 girls in England reported skipping school in the past two weeks, compared to 23% of boys. This gender gap was widest in England, the USA, Ireland, New Zealand and Wales.

Teenagers from lower socio-economic backgrounds were more likely to skip school in England. Pre-pandemic, a fifth (21%) admitted to skipping school, compared to 13% for the most advantaged group. This increased in both groups post-pandemic, as nearly a third (29%) of disadvantaged teenagers admitted playing truant in 2022, compared to just over a fifth (22%) of advantaged teenagers.  

The findings, published by UCL’s Social Research Institute, mean the nine Anglophone countries in the developed world have the highest truancy rates for 15-year-olds – and experienced the sharpest rise in rates – out of all OECD countries. The results could have significant policy implications for schools in these countries.

Lead author Professor John Jerrim (UCL Social Research Institute) said: “The increase in Anglophone countries’ truancy rates shows that schools face a huge challenge in re-engaging students and addressing the underlying issues contributing to absences.

“We can attribute the rise largely to girls skipping school more often since the pandemic. It is therefore crucial that we develop and implement targeted interventions to support students and help them stay engaged in their education.”

Wales had the highest gender gap in 2022, with over 40% of girls admitting to truancy, compared to a third of boys.

The researchers also found there was no correlation between the length of school closures during the pandemic and truancy rates. Schools across OECD countries were typically closed for an average of five months, but the authors found no evidence of a direct link between this and the increase in proportion of students skipping school.

For the study, the researchers used data from the OECD Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), which assesses the academic achievement of 15-year-olds in around 80 countries.

In addition to this, over 200 schools were randomly selected in each country, with around 40 students selected in each school, who were sent a questionnaire about their attendance.

The nine English-speaking countries in the study were England, Ireland, Scotland, Wales, the USA, Australia, Northern Ireland, Canada and New Zealand. The only non-Anglophone OECD countries that experienced a similar increase in truancy since the pandemic are Poland and Italy. The academics say that more research is needed to determine why these two countries have a similar rate to the Anglophone nations.

The researchers speculate that the increase in the proportion of girls skipping schools could be due to rising rates of poor mental health, partly as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Professor Jerrim added: “It is as yet unproven, but possible, that teenage girls could be disproportionately affected by mental health challenges arising in the aftermath of the pandemic, meaning they are more likely to skip school on days when they’re experiencing heightened anxiety.”

The researchers stress that more work is needed to investigate the underlying reasons behind the gender gap in truancy rates.

 

Notes to Editors

For more information or to speak to the researchers involved, please contact:

Kate Corry, UCL Media Relations. T: +44 (0)20 3108 6995 / +44 (0)7539 410 389, E: k.corry@ucl.ac.uk

Professor John Jerrim, UCL Social Research Institute. T: 07590 761 755. E: j.jerrim@ucl.ac.uk

Jake Anders, John Jerrim, Maria Ladrón de Guevara Rodriguez, Oscar David Marcenaro-Gutierrez; ‘The rise in teenagers skipping school across English-speaking countries. Evidence from PISA’ will be published on Tuesday 19th November, 00:01 UK time / Monday 18th November, 19:01 US Eastern time

Paper will be available here once published: http://bit.ly/40K5O6X

Additional material

More work by Professor John Jerrim

About UCL – London’s Global University

UCL is a diverse global community of world-class academics, students, industry links, external partners, and alumni. Our powerful collective of individuals and institutions work together to explore new possibilities.

Since 1826, we have championed independent thought by attracting and nurturing the world's best minds. Our community of more than 50,000 students from 150 countries and over 16,000 staff pursues academic excellence, breaks boundaries and makes a positive impact on real world problems.

We are consistently ranked among the top 10 universities in the world and are one of only a handful of institutions rated as having the strongest academic reputation and the broadest research impact.

We have a progressive and integrated approach to our teaching and research – championing innovation, creativity and cross-disciplinary working. We teach our students how to think, not what to think, and see them as partners, collaborators and contributors.  

For almost 200 years, we are proud to have opened higher education to students from a wide range of backgrounds and to change the way we create and share knowledge.

We were the first in England to welcome women to university education and that courageous attitude and disruptive spirit is still alive today. We are UCL.

www.ucl.ac.uk | Follow @uclnews on Twitter | Read news at www.ucl.ac.uk/news/ | Listen to UCL podcasts on SoundCloud | Find out what’s on at UCL Minds

 

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Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

 

Plastic bag bans have lingering impacts, even after repeals

Banning free plastic bags for groceries in Texas resulted in customers purchasing more plastic bags, study finds

University of California - Riverside

 

image: 

Hai Che

view more 

Credit: UC Riverside

Regulations imposed to protect the environment may continue to have impacts even after they are repealed. And those lingering impacts include some that run contrary to the goals of the policies.

Such are te findings of a study published in the Journal of Marketing Research co-authored by UC Riverside marketing professor Hai Che that examined policies to curtail the use of single-use plastic bags in grocery stores and other retail outlets in Austin and Dallas, Texas—policies that were later repealed.

Significantly, the behaviors spurred by the plastic bag rules continued after the rules were no longer in place. And some impacts were not beneficial to the environment.

Che and his coauthors found an increase in sales of plastic bags after the cities prohibited stores from giving away free plastic bags for carrying home groceries. They quantified plastic bag sales by analyzing barcode scanner data on consumer purchases.

“We were hoping for positive spillover effects, like customers will be more environmentally conscious and consume less one-time use plastic or paper products,” said Che, an associate professor at UCR’s School of Business. “But that’s not what happened in the data. People wound up buying more plastic.”

Che added store customer had been repurposing the free grocery bags al as liners for household trash bins.”

The bag rules, however,  most likely changed consumer behavior in positive ways as well, such as people getting in the habit of using reusable canvas or burlap bags for everyday shopping, although such data wasn’t available to the researchers, Che said.

The study found that the longer a policy is in place, the longer the behaviors spurred by the policy lingered on.

The Dallas City Council had imposed a 5-cent fee for single-use bags for five months in 2015 before repealing the fee when the city faced lawsuits from plastic bag manufacturers. When free bags became available again, plastic bag sales initially declined sharply and returned to pre-policy levels after 13 months.

The Austin City Council banned single-use carryout bags in 2013, and the policy remained in place for five years until 2018 when the Texas Supreme Court struck down such bans statewide when it ruled on a case about a similar bag ban in Lerado. After the repeal, the carryover effect of plastic bag purchases declined gradually and did not revert to the pre-policy baseline after 18 months, which was the end of the researchers’ analysis time frame. In fact, the carryover effect remained 38.6% above the baseline even at the end of the analysis

To assess the net environmental impact, the research team conducted a “break-even analysis” to determine if the plastic bag policy, despite the negative spillover effects, ultimately reduced plastic waste. They calculated how many fewer single-use grocery bags consumers would need to use to offset the additional trash bags purchased due to the policy. In Dallas, consumers would need to use one less grocery bag every seven trips, while in Austin, it would be one less bag every five trips to break even in terms of environmental impact.

burlap bag
Bans on free plastic bags for groceries are designed to encourage use of  reusable canvas or burlap bags which reduce plastic waste in the environment.  (Photo by Fiona Goodall/Getty Images)
“Interestingly, even a slight reduction in grocery bag use can offset the increased plastic consumption from trash bags,” Che said. “This suggests that these policies might still benefit the environment overall, even when repealed.”

The study’s title is “Are We Worse Off After Policy Repeals? Evidence from Two Green Policies.” In addition to Che, the authors are Dinesh Puranam of the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, Sungjin Kim of Rutgers Business School at Rutgers University, and Jihoon Hong at W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University.

The study contributes to a growing body of knowledge on the unintended consequences of environmental policies and offers insights applicable beyond plastic bag usage, Che said.

“While our study focused on plastic bags, similar spillover effects have been documented in policies targeting sugary drinks, energy efficiency, and health incentives,” Che said. “In each case, behaviors that weren’t directly targeted by the policy—like purchasing more sugary snacks when soda is taxed—can offset or even undermine the policy’s primary goals.”

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Journal

Journal of Marketing Research

DOI

10.1177/00222437241290157 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Are We Worse off after Policy Repeals? Evidence from Two Green Policies

Which EU country is the biggest consumer of lightweight plastic bags?

The number of lightweight plastic bags purchased across the EU is staggering – nearly 30 billion in 2022 alone. However, their usage rate is declining rapidly. Which countries use the most, and which are the most eco-friendly?

EU member states have taken progressive steps over the past decade to reduce the use of lightweight plastic bags, including imposing additional charges or levies and promoting the adoption of compostable and biodegradable alternatives.

Although these measures have not fully resolved the issue, they have proven effective: Today, EU citizens purchase about 30% fewer lightweight plastic bags compared to 2018, according to a Eurostat report published on Tuesday.

However, the overall consumption remains significantly high.

In 2022 alone, nearly 30 billion lightweight plastic bags were bought across the EU, averaging more than 66 bags per person.

Lithuanians buy nearly a bag a day, Belgians almost none in a year

Lithuania recorded the highest use per capita, with 249, followed by Latvia (193) and the Czech Republic (185).

With only four bags per capita, Belgium reported the lowest consumption rate, followed by Poland (7) and Portugal (13).

Consumption of lighweight plastic carrier bags, 2022Eurostat

What are lightweight plastic bags, and what impact do they have?

Lightweight plastic bags are less than 50 microns thick and are normally used for carrying small amounts of groceries.

They have a devastating impact on the environment.

Not only do they take centuries to decompose, but they also break up into microplastics, ending up in the human and animal food chain.

 

American soil losing more nutrients for crops due to heavier rainstorms, study shows

Loss of phosphorus from agricultural lands is increasing due to heavier storms, potentially threatening crop growth, according to team led by researchers at Penn State

Penn State

 

image: 

A Penn State-led study analyzed data from 430 rivers across the U.S. and found that phosphorus loss from agricultural lands has increased over the past four decades, despite efforts to reduce it. This loss of phosphorus can potentially lead to decreased crop yields, which can possibly drive up the cost of food, the researchers explained.

view more 

Credit: Tyler Groh/Penn State

UNIVERSITY PARK, Pa. — Phosphorus, a nutrient in soil essential for sustaining most forms of life, is increasingly disappearing from land as it is washed into waterways throughout the United States, according to a new study led by researchers at Penn State.

The study, published today (Nov. 18) in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed data from 430 rivers across the U.S. and found that phosphorus loss from agricultural lands has increased over the past four decades, despite efforts to reduce it. This loss of phosphorus can potentially lead to decreased crop yields, which could drive up the cost of food, the researchers explained.

“We’ve seen from recent weather events that water quantity, the amount of water that storms and waterways carry, can lead to dangerous flooding and mudslides,” said Li Li, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Penn State and corresponding author on the study. “What we wanted to understand is what happens to the land when these storms pull the subsurface of the soil into rivers and streams. What we found is an alarming loss of this finite element that lets soil sustain life.”

Phosphorus plays an essential role in various biological processes, like creating DNA structure and facilitating the energy transfer between cells, Li explained. But unlike nitrogen, another critical soil nutrient, phosphorus is a non-renewable resource with limited geological deposits, meaning that once it moves from land to water, it can’t get back into the land.

“This is a problem for many reasons,” Li said. “When it's lost from farmland, it can reduce crop yields, potentially leading to higher food prices. Then, when phosphorus enters our waterways, it can cause harmful algal blooms that can make water unsafe for swimming and fishing — and can even reduce oxygen levels in water and kill fish and other aquatic life. It also makes it more expensive to treat drinking water, which means higher water bills for all of us.”

The study used a sophisticated deep learning model to analyze four decades of data, from 1980 to 2019, from 430 rivers throughout the contiguous United States. It revealed that while 60% of the rivers studied showed declining levels of phosphorus, the overall amount of phosphorus flowing into rivers has increased. Agricultural areas are the biggest contributors to the problem, with phosphorus levels increasing in most rivers near agricultural areas, even as they decline in rivers near urban areas.

“This suggests that efforts to control phosphorus pollution from sources like agricultural runoff are not as effective as we thought,” Li said. “But declining levels of phosphorus, particularly in rivers flowing through urban areas, suggests that efforts to control phosphorus pollution from point sources such as wastewater treatment plants are working.”

Despite these targeted efforts, Li said the overall increased amount of phosphorus flowing into rivers is due to the increased frequency of extreme weather events that lead to heavier rainfall and higher river flows — with that increased flow comes more phosphorus.

“This means that even though we're doing a better job at limiting phosphorus pollution from urban areas, the problem is getting worse overall, due to factors largely beyond the control of just one region,” Li said. “This is a problem that is tied to climate change.”

Going forward, the study's authors said phosphorus pollution from agriculture needs better prevention and mitigation, which will be a challenge, especially as wetter storms drive increased rainfall and river flows. They said that this will likely require a combination of new technologies and changes to farming practices.

One such technology was invented at Penn State and is currently garnering support from the agricultural technology sector to address the problem at scale. Hunter Swisher, a 2016 Penn State alumnus, is the founder and chief executive officer of Phospholutions, a fertilizer formulated to increase phosphorus efficiency in the soil.

He developed the company’s technology during his undergraduate studies in plant sciences at Penn State. The company recently announced the results of a study proving that the product reduces runoff potential by 78% compared to conventional phosphorus fertilizers. Phospholutions is actively commercializing throughout the Americas, Europe and India.

“We are advocating for more innovation, more creativity and more urgency,” Li said. “The connection between water and land is essential and that balance is growing increasingly fragile.”

Other Penn State authors are Wei Zhi, former assistant research professor of civil and environmental engineering at Penn State and currently a professor in Hohai University in China; Jiangtao Liu, a doctoral student in civil and environmental engineering; Elizabeth Boyer, professor of environmental science; Chaopeng Shen, professor of water resources engineering; and Xiaofeng Liu, associate professor of civil engineering. Other authors are Hubert Baniecki of University of Warsaw in Poland and Gary Shenk of the United States Geological Survey.

This work was supported by the Barry and Shirley Isett Professorship at Penn State, the High Performance Computing Platform of Hohai University, the U.S. National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy and the Polish Ministry of Education and Science.

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Journal

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

DOI

10.1073/pnas.2402028121 

Method of Research

Computational simulation/modeling

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Increasing phosphorus loss despite widespread concentration decline in US rivers

Article Publication Date

18-Nov-2024