Friday, October 23, 2020

Knowing the model you can trust - the key to better decision-making

CRANFIELD UNIVERSITY

Research News

As much of Europe is engulfed by a second wave of Covid-19, and track and trace struggles to meet demand, modelling support tools are being increasingly used by policymakers to make key decisions. Most notably, models have been used to predict the Covid-19 R0 rate - the average rate of secondary infections from a single infection, which has formed the basis for many lockdown decisions across the UK.

Models can represent the most effective tool for identifying interventions that can balance the risks of widespread infection and help assess socio-economic disruption until an effective treatment is established. However, not all models are equal, and differences in model predictions during the Covid-19 pandemic have caused confusion and suspicion.

A recent paper 'Three questions to ask before using model outputs for decision support' published in Nature Communications aims to help decision makers choose the best available model for the problem at hand. The paper proposes three screening questions that can help critically evaluate models with respect to their purpose, organisation, and evidence, and enable more secure use of models for key decisions by policy makers.

One of the authors of the paper, Dr Alice Johnston, Lecturer in Environmental Data Science at Cranfield University, said: "From Covid-19 to the stock market, models are increasingly used by policymakers to support their decisions.

"However, different models are based on different assumptions and so can produce conflicting results, even when they represent the same system. Models used early on in the Covid-19 pandemic were a prime example of this, which led to confusion over which models to trust to support the decision-making process. This really highlights the need for clear communication of a model's context, so that policymakers have confidence in which models to trust.

"We propose that before engaging with a model, policymakers ask themselves three screening questions focusing on the model's purpose, organisation and evidence base, with the aim of bringing greater clarity to the decision-making process."


 

Residents of U.S. counties with more connections to China or Italy were more likely to follow early pandemic restrictions

Social connections with COVID-19-affected areas increase compliance with mobility restrictions

AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE

Research News

Residents of U.S. counties with more social connections (measured as Facebook friends) to China or Italy - the first countries to report major COVID-19 outbreaks - were more likely to adhere to social distancing restrictions at the onset of the pandemic, according to a new study. The findings suggest that social networks supplied pandemic-related information that significantly influenced individual behavior. However, social ties also could have negative effects on pandemic-related behavior. For instance, areas within the U.S. with more connections to counties with low education levels, high proportions of 2016 Trump voters, and high fractions of people who deny the existence of climate change experienced less adherence to mobility restrictions during the early pandemic. Previous research suggests online social connections may act as warning systems during natural disasters and can impact personal health decisions by spreading both facts and misinformation. To explore the role of these connections in the context of COVID-19-era social distancing, Ben Charoenwong and colleagues measured social connectedness between U.S. counties and foreign countries using aggregated, anonymized data from Facebook's Social Connectedness Index. The researchers combined this data with anonymized, county-level mobile phone location data that served as a proxy for adherence to social distancing measures between February 1 and March 30, 2020. They found that a one-standard-deviation increase in social connections with China or Italy correlated with a nearly 50% increase in the effectiveness of mobility restrictions. The authors also conclude that differences in how effectively Democrats and Republicans adhere to social distancing arise from discrepancies in the information they receive (facilitated by their social connections) rather than due to biases in how they interpret that information. "This finding has important policy implications, as it suggests changes in the information environment can boost the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions," the authors write.

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Study helps explain declines in death rates from COVID-19

NYU LANGONE HEALTH / NYU SCHOOL OF MEDICINE

Research News

Fewer New Yorkers are dying from the coronavirus than health experts had anticipated, a new study shows. Regional death rates have dropped from the highs seen at the start of the outbreak, partially due to a shift in the population contracting the disease toward those who are more resilient.

After New York became the epicenter for the pandemic in early March, with tens of thousands dying from COVID-19, experts had expected that the infection would remain as deadly in the following months.

Instead, a new investigation showed that by mid-August the death rate in those hospitalized with coronavirus-related illness had dropped from 27 percentage points to about 3 percentage points. Led by researchers at NYU Grossman School of Medicine, the study showed that a younger, healthier group of people were getting infected and were arriving at the hospital with less-severe symptoms than those infected in the spring.

However, the researchers' analysis showed that these factors accounted for only part of the improvement in survival. The rest, they suspect, resulted from health care providers' growing experience with the coronavirus. For example, physicians learned that resting COVID-19 patients on their stomachs rather than their backs and delaying the use of ventilators as long as possible were more effective practices, say the study authors. Drugs likely helped as well. In addition, other factors such as decreasing hospital volumes, less exposure to infection, and earlier testing and treatment, may have played a role.

"Our findings suggest that while COVID-19 remains a terrible disease, our efforts to improve treatment are probably working," says study lead author Leora Horwitz, MD, an associate professor in the Department of Population Health at NYU Langone Health. "Even in the absence of a silver-bullet treatment or vaccine, we are protecting more of our patients through a host of small changes," says Horwitz, who is also director of the Center for Healthcare Innovation and Delivery Science at NYU Langone.

New York was among the first states to grapple with a severe outbreak of COVID-19. By contrast, death rates in more recent waves in southern and western regions of the country, which also had younger, healthier coronavirus patients, have been lower, says Horwitz. However, it had remained unclear whether the virus was less deadly due to the different patient demographics or improved care.

Horwitz says the new study, publishing online next week in the Journal of Hospital Medicine, is the most detailed analysis to date of coronavirus death rates over time. By accounting for age, obesity, and other key factors, the researchers were able to eliminate some explanations from the analysis.

For the investigation, the research team analyzed 5,263 patient records of people treated for COVID-19 at NYU Langone hospitals in New York City and Long Island between March 1 and Aug. 8. Using a range of risk factors for the disease as well as indicators of the severity of the illness upon hospitalization, the study authors developed a model that predicted likelihood of death for each patient.

According to the findings, the likelihood of death was on average 22 percentage points lower in August than in March for most critically ill patients.

The average age of hospitalized COVID-19 patients also dropped from 63 to 47. In March, while 73 percent had chronic conditions like lung disease and diabetes, by mid-June only about 65 percent had such risk factors.

"Other pandemic hotspots should take hope from the lessons learned here in New York," says study senior author Christopher Petrilli, MD, an assistant professor in the Department of Medicine at NYU Langone. "If we can do better at managing the disease, they can too."

Still, he adds that the research team next plans to expand the investigation to hospitals outside of New York.

Petrilli also cautions that while death rates are improving, COVID-19 still causes symptoms in some people that continue long after hospital patients are sent home, including fatigue, blood clots, and lung damage.

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NYU Grossman School of Medicine provided all the necessary funding for the study.

In addition to Horwitz and Petrilli, other NYU Langone researchers include Simon Jones, PhD; Robert Cerfolio, MD; Fritz Francois, MD; Joseph Greco, MD; and Bret Rudy, MD.


 

SARS-CoV-2 antibodies detectable up to seven months post COVID-19 onset, shows new Portuguese study

INSTITUTO DE MEDICINA MOLECULAR

Research News

A new study led by Marc Veldhoen, principal investigator at Instituto de Medicina Molecular João Lobo Antunes (iMM; Portugal) with an interdisciplinary team of clinicians and researchers from Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Lisboa (FMUL) and Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte (CHLN) and collaborators at Instituto Português do Sangue e Transplantação (IPST), shows that 90% of subjects have detectable antibodies 40 days up to 7 months post contracting COVID-19. These results, now published in the scientific journal European Journal of Immunology, also show that age is not a confounding factor in levels of antibodies produced, but disease severity is.

This comprehensive and cross-sectional study was thought off in the early days of the pandemic, back in March 2020. The researchers Patrícia Figueiredo-Campos and Birte Blankenhaus, first authors of this study, setup an in-house sensitive specific and versatile COVID-19 serology test. The optimization and validation of the assay was performed as part of Serology4COVID, a consortium of 5 research institutes of Lisbon and Oeiras. Collaborating with physicians in the campus of the Santa Maria Hospital, the research team started to monitor the antibody levels of over 300 COVID-19 hospital patients and healthcare workers, and over 200 post-COVID-19 volunteers.

"Our immune system recognizes the virus SARS-CoV-2 as harmful and produces antibodies in response to it, which helps to fight the virus." "The results of this 6 months cross-sectional study show a classic pattern with a rapid increase of antibody levels within the first three weeks after COVID-19 symptoms and, as expected, a reduction to intermediate levels thereafter", explains Marc Veldhoen, adding that "in this early response phase, on average men produce more antibodies than women, but levels equilibrate during the resolution phase and are similar between the sexes in the months after SARS-CoV-2 infection". In the acute phase of the immune response, the team observed higher antibody levels in subjects with more severe disease. Also, the results show that age is not a confounding factor for the production of antibodies, as no significant differences were observed between age groups. Globally, 90% of subjects have detectable antibodies up to 7 months post contracting COVID-19.

Next, the research team, evaluated the function of these antibodies, i.e. their neutralizing activity against the virus SARS-CoV-2. In collaboration with Instituto Português do Sangue e Transplantação (IPST), the research team analysed the neutralizing capacity of the antibodies produced by the patients and volunteers. "Although we observed a reduction in the levels of antibodies over time, the results of our neutralizing assays have shown a robust neutralisation activity for up to the seventh month post-infection in a large proportion of previously virus-positive screened subjects", explains Marc Veldhoen.

On the importance of this study, Marc Veldhoen states: "Our work provides detailed information for the assays used, facilitating further and longitudinal analysis of protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Importantly, it highlights a continued level of circulating neutralising antibodies in most people with confirmed SARS-CoV-2. The next months will be critical to evaluate the robustness of the immune response to SARS-CoV-2 infection, and to find clues for some open questions, such as the duration of circulating antibodies and the impact of reinfection."

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This study was conducted at iMM in collaboration with the Biobank-IMM, Lisbon Academic Medical Centre, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de Lisboa (FMUL), Centro Hospitalar Lisboa Norte (CHLN) and Instituto Português do Sangue e Transplantação (IPST). The SARS-CoV-2 protein used in the serology testing was produced at Instituto de Biologia Experimental e Tecnológica (iBET) as part of the Serology4COVID consortium. This work was funded by the European Union H2020 ERA project EXCELLtoINNOV (No 667824), the Fundação para a Ciência a Tecnologia and Sociedade Francisco Manuel dos Santos.

 New data on increasing cloth mask effectiveness

Widespread use of masks remains the primary tool for combating COVID-19 and economic shutdowns, cost benefit analysis suggests government subsidies for masks bear great returns

SOCIETY FOR RISK ANALYSIS

Research News

Recent FDA chief Dr. Scott Gottlieb argued that he'd "rather try to get everyone in masks" and "try to get them in high-quality masks because we know it's going to slow down the transmission."

Against this backdrop, a new study published in Risk Analysis, "Reinventing cloth masks in the face of pandemics," by Stephen Salter, P.Eng., describes how Effective Fiber Mask Programs (EFMPs) can help communities find a balance between the economy and curbing community spread.

A separate study by Stadnytskyi, et al. estimates that one minute of loud speaking generates at least 1,000 virion-containing droplets that remain airborne for more than eight minutes. If everyone uses effective masks, the benefit is compounded because each person's mask reduces the number of particles they transmit, and also the number of particles they inhale.

The new study in Risk Analysis suggests that the effectiveness of cloth masks can be improved by using a non-woven material such as cotton batting. Increasing the surface area of fibers exposed to moving air improves filtering efficiency because the smaller particles are absorbed onto the fibers. In May and June of 2020, 17 handmade cotton batting masks underwent 35 tests using commercial quantitative fit testing equipment to determine their filtering effectiveness. The results showed average filtering effectiveness of 76 to 90 percent against aerosol particles.

If an Effective Fiber Mask (EFM) costs $6 and can be used 30 times for four hours each, the cost per hour of use would be $0.05. Another study, by Abaluck et al., estimated the value of cloth masks during the COVID-19 pandemic, and concluded, "...the benefits of each additional cloth mask worn by the public are conservatively in the $3,000-$6,000 range due to their impact in slowing the spread of the virus." This cost-benefit ratio suggests governments should consider subsidizing the cost of EFMs for the public.

Governments can take a leadership role by rapidly implementing EFMPs to help reduce transmission of COVID-19, according to Salter. To implement an EFMP, a government would set performance standards for cloth masks, invite manufacturers to submit their mask designs for testing, allow manufacturers to label their approved designs, ask or require the public to wear only approved cloth masks, educate the public to use face masks correctly, and encourage manufacturers to continuously improve their designs.

"I am confident Effective Fiber Masks can play an important role in reducing the risk of transmission of COVID-19," states Salter. "Every country can rapidly implement an Effective Fiber Mask Program, and I hope leaders will act quickly to reduce suffering in this way."

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Abaluck, J., Chevalier, J. A., Christakis, N. A., Forman, H. P., Kaplan, E. H., Ko, A., & Vermund, S. H. (2020). The case for universal cloth mask adoption and policies to increase supply of medical masks for health workers. SSRN Electronic Journalhttps://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3567438

Stadnytskyi, V., Bax, C. E., Bax, A., & Anfinrud, P. (2020). The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS?CoV?2 transmission. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117(22), 11875- 11877. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006874117

About SRA

The Society for Risk Analysis is a multidisciplinary, interdisciplinary, scholarly, international society that provides an open forum for all those interested in risk analysis. SRA was established in 1980 and has published Risk Analysis: An International Journal, the leading scholarly journal in the field, continuously since 1981. For more information, visit http://www.sra.org.

 

Study reveals bat-winged dinosaurs had short-lived gliding abilities

THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG

Research News

IMAGE

IMAGE: FIGURE 1. LASER-STIMULATED FLUORESCENCE (LSF) IMAGE OF THE FOSSIL OF YI QI, A BAT-WINGED DINOSAUR FROM THE LATE JURASSIC OF NORTHERN CHINA. view more 

CREDIT: DECECCHI ET AL. 2020.

Research Assistant Professor Dr Michael PITTMAN (Vertebrate Palaeontology Laboratory, Division of Earth and Planetary Science & Department of Earth Sciences) at The University of Hong Kong (HKU), recently showed that powered flight potential evolved at least three times and that many ancestors of close bird relatives neared the thresholds of powered flight potential, suggesting broad experimentation with wing-assisted locomotion before flight evolved (see Notes). In a new study, Dr Pittman and Dr Thomas DECECCHI, Assistant Professor of Biology at Mount Marty University, broadened their collaboration on flight origins research to the scansoriopterygids, a rare group of theropod dinosaurs believed to glide using strange bat-like wings. Living around 160 million years ago in what is now northern China, they weighed about 1kg and probably feed on insects, seeds, and other plants. For the first time, Dr Dececchi, Dr Pittman and the rest of the international team tested this gliding hypothesis through quantitatively reconstructions of scansoriopterygid flight capabilities. If confirmed, this bat-winged gliding lifestyle will be unique to scansoriopterygids as it is not found in any other dinosaurs. It would also make scansoriopterygids the most distantly related theropod dinosaurs to birds that could glide. Thus, testing this gliding hypothesis is important for understanding how flight evolved among theropod dinosaurs.



Scansoriopterygids were an evolutionary dead-end

To do this, fossils were scanned using Laser-Stimulated Fluorescence (LSF), a laser-based imaging technique co-developed at HKU, which can reveal bone and soft tissue details that can't be seen under standard white light. The team then used mathematical models to predict how scansoriopterygids might have flown, testing many different variables, including weight, wingspan, and muscle placement. They found that scansoriopterygids did not have powered flight potential but were capable of clumsy gliding. "They could glide, but they weren't very good at it. If I were them I would have been particularly worried about predators!" says Dr Pittman. Scansoriopterygids were not part of the independent originations of powered flight in dinosaurs, which happened at least three times: once in birds and twice in dromaeosaurid 'raptors'. Their poor gliding capabilities and existence in a short interval of time suggests that they were an evolutionary dead-end. But what exactly doomed this strange experiment? "The two scansoriopterygid species we studied were so poorly capable of being in the air that they just got squeezed out," says Dr Thomas Dececchi. "Maybe you can survive a few million years underperforming, but with birds, pterosaurs, gliding mammals all around, scansoriopterygids were simply squeezed out until they disappeared."

Gliding is not an efficient form of flight as it can only be done if the scansoriopterygids are already at a high point. However, it did help keep them out of danger. "If an animal needs to travel long distances, gliding costs a bit more energy at the start, but it's faster. It can also be used as an escape hatch. It's not a great thing to do, but sometimes it's a choice between losing a bit of energy and being eaten," says Dececchi. "Once scansoriopterygids were put under pressure, they just lost their space. They couldn't win on the ground. They couldn't win in the air. They were done." The new findings support the emerging picture that dinosaurs evolved flight in several different ways before modern birds evolved. Asked about future plans, Pittman added, "Our team continues to uncover a greater sense of the breadth of experimentation involved in getting dinosaurs into the air. We plan to reveal even more details moving forward, particularly the different routes taken by dinosaurs to occupy the skies."

The paper 'Aerodynamics show membranous-winged theropods were a poor gliding dead-end' is published in iScience and can be accessed here: https://www.cell.com/iscience/fulltext/S2589-0042(20)30766-5

Images download and captions:

https://www.scifac.hku.hk/press

Notes:

1. Bird beak revealed by HKU-codeveloped laser imaging informs early beak form, function, and development (Sept 2020):
https://www.hku.hk/press/news_detail_21574.html

2. Landmark HKU-led volume on past progress and new frontiers in the study of early birds and their close relatives (August 2020):
https://hku.hk/press/press-releases/detail/21459.html

3. Most close relatives of birds neared the potential for powered flight but few crossed its thresholds (August 2020):
https://www.hku.hk/press/press-releases/detail/21405.html

4. Ancient birds out of the egg running(March 2019):
https://www.hku.hk/press/press-releases/detail/19256.html

5. HKU imaging technology shows first discovered fossil feather did not belong to iconic bird Archaeopteryx (Feb 2019):
https://www.hku.hk/press/press-releases/detail/19063.html

6. HKU palaeontologist discovers new bird-like dinosaur with flight associated feathers - Jianianhualong tengi (May 2017):
https://www.hku.hk/press/news_detail_16295.html

7. Major breakthrough in knowledge of dinosaur appearance HKU palaeontologist reconstructs feathered dinosaurs in the flesh with new technology (March 2017):
https://www.hku.hk/press/press-releases/detail/15989.html

8. Scientists reveal how dinosaurs became able to shake their tail feathers (May 2013):
https://www.hku.hk/press/press-releases/detail/9693.html

 

Metal deposits from Chinese coal plants end up in the Pacific Ocean, USC research shows

UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

Research News


Emissions from coal-fired power plants in China are fertilizing the North Pacific Ocean with a metal nutrient important for marine life, according to new findings from a USC-led research team.

The researchers believe these metals could change the ocean ecosystem, though it's unclear whether it would be for better or worse.

The study shows that smoke from power plants carries iron and other metals to the surface waters of the North Pacific Ocean as westerly winds blow emissions from Asia to North America. Peak measurements show that up to nearly 60% of the iron in one vast swath of the northern part of the ocean emanates from smokestacks.

"It has long been understood that burning fossil fuels alters Earth's climate and ocean ecosystems by releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere," said Seth John, lead author of the study and an assistant professor of Earth sciences at the USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences. "This work shows fossil fuel burning has a side effect: the release of iron and metals into the atmosphere that carry thousands of miles and deposit in the ocean where they can impact marine ecosystems."

"Certain metal deposits could help some marine life thrive while harming other life,'' he added. "There are inevitable tradeoffs when the ocean water's chemistry changes."

The study was published on Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Researchers from USC, Columbia University, University of Washington, MIT and the University of Hawaii, among others, collaborated.

USC-led team confirms that ocean metals stem from China

While wind-blown mineral dust from deserts has long been considered an important source of iron to open ocean waters, the new study shows how manmade sources contribute important micronutrients that plankton and algae need. Moreover, the study shows how fossil fuel burning affects not only global warming but marine environments, too.

Previous studies have shown widely divergent estimates about how much iron is carried from various land-based sources to the ocean, especially from anthropogenic sources. Iron is a key limiting factor for marine productivity for about one-third of the world's oceans.

Instead, the USC-led research team measured metals in surface seawater. They focused on a remote part of the Pacific Ocean, hundreds of miles north of Hawaii and about midway between Japan and California. The region is downwind of industrial emissions in east Asia.

In May 2017, they boarded a research vessel and took water samples along a north-south transect at latitudes between 25 degrees and 42 degrees north. They found peak iron concentrations in about the middle, which corresponded with a big wind event over east Asia one month before. The peak iron concentrations are about three times greater than background ocean measurements, the study shows.

In addition, the scientists found elevated lead concentrations coincided with the iron hot spots. Other research has shown that most of the lead at the ocean surface comes from manmade sources, including cement plants, coal-fired power plants and metal smelters.

Moreover, the metals in the seawater samples bear telltale traces of Chinese industrial sources, the study says.

"When we collected samples in the ocean, we found that the iron isotope and lead isotope 'fingerprints' from seawater matched those of anthropogenic pollution from Asia," said Paulina Pinedo-Gonzalez, a USC post-doctoral scientist and study author who is now at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University.

Finally, the scientists also ruled out upwelling from the deep ocean as a source of the metals by testing water samples at depth.

What does the abundance of metals mean for marine life?

The study has important implications for marine life in the ocean. The North Pacific notably lacks iron, a key micronutrient, so an influx of metals and other substances can help build the foundation for a new ecosystem -- a 'good news, bad news' outcome for Earth.

"Microscopic iron-containing particles released during coal burning impacts algae growth in the ocean, and therefore the entire ecosystem for which algae form the base of the food chain," John explained. "In the short term, we might think that iron in pollution is beneficial because it stimulates the growth of phytoplankton, which then take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere as they grow to offset some of the carbon dioxide released during the initial burning process.

"However, it's totally unsustainable as a long-term geoengineering solution because of the deleterious effects of pollution on human health. Thus, the take-home message is perhaps a better understanding of an unintended side effect of coal burning and the ways in which that can impact ocean ecosystems thousands of miles away."

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The study authors are Paulina Pinedo-Gonzalez, a former post-doctoral scholar at USC, now affiliated with the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Seth John and Nicholas J. Hawco of USC; Randelle M. Bundy and E. Virginia Armbrust of the University of Washington; Michael J. Follows of MIT; B.B. Cael of National Oceanography Center of the United Kingdom; and Angelicque E. White, Sara Ferron and David M. Karl of the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

The research was supported by the Simons Foundation (award #4265705SP).

 

Texas A&M expert: New clues revealed about Clovis people

A study by professor Michael Waters shows that tools made by some of North America's earliest inhabitants were made only during a 300-year period.

TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

Research News

IMAGE

IMAGE: CLOVIS SPEAR POINTS FROM THE GAULT SITE IN TEXAS. view more 

CREDIT: CENTER FOR THE STUDY OF THE FIRST AMERICANS, TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

There is much debate surrounding the age of the Clovis -- a prehistoric culture named for stone tools found near Clovis, New Mexico in the early 1930s -- who once occupied North America during the end of the last Ice Age. New testing of bones and artifacts show that Clovis tools were made only during a brief, 300-year period from 13,050 to 12,750 years ago.

Michael Waters, distinguished professor of anthropology and director of the Center for the Study of the First Americans, along with Texas A&M anthropologist David Carlson and Thomas Stafford of Stafford Research in Colorado, have had their new work published in the current issue of Science Advances.

The team used the radiocarbon method to date bone, charcoal and carbonized plant remains from 10 known Clovis sites in South Dakota, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, Montana and two sites in Oklahoma and Wyoming. An analysis of the dates showed that people made and used the iconic Clovis spear-point and other distinctive tools for only 300 years.

"We still do not know how or why Clovis technology emerged and why it disappeared so quickly," Waters said.

"It is intriguing to note that Clovis people first appears 300 years before the demise of the last of the megafauna that once roamed North America during a time of great climatic and environmental change," he said. "The disappearance of Clovis from the archaeological record at 12,750 years ago is coincident with the extinction of mammoth and mastodon, the last of the megafauna. Perhaps Clovis weaponry was developed to hunt the last of these large beasts."

Waters said that until recently, Clovis was thought to represent the initial group of indigenous people to enter the Americas and that people carrying Clovis weapons and tools spread quickly across the continent and then moved swiftly all the way to the southern tip of South America. However, a short age range for Clovis does not provide sufficient time for people to colonize both North and South America. Furthermore, strong archaeological evidence "amassed over the last few decades shows that people were in the Americas thousands of years before Clovis, but Clovis still remains important because it is so distinctive and widespread across North America," he said.

Waters said the revised age for Clovis tools reveals that, "Clovis with its distinctive fluted lanceolate spear point, typically found in the Plains and eastern United States, is contemporaneous with stemmed point-making people in the Western United States and the earliest spear points, called Fishtail points, in South America.

"Having an accurate age for Clovis shows that people using different toolkits were well settled into multiple areas of North and South America by 13,000 years ago and had developed their own adaptation to these various environments."

Waters noted that a new accurate and precise age for Clovis and their tools provides a baseline to try to understand the mystery surrounding the origin and demise of these people.

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Bronze Age herders were less mobile than previously thought

UNIVERSITY OF BASEL

Research News

IMAGE

IMAGE: GRAZING ANIMALS ON CAUCASUS MOUNTAIN PASTURES. view more 

CREDIT: SABINE REINHOLD

Bronze Age pastoralists in what is now southern Russia apparently covered shorter distances than previously thought. It is believed that the Indo-European languages may have originated from this region, and these findings raise new questions about how technical and agricultural innovations spread to Europe. An international research team, with the participation of the University of Basel, has published a paper on this topic.

During the Bronze Age (ca. 3900 - 1000 BCE), herders and their families moved across the slopes of the Caucasus and the steppes to the north, taking their sheep, goats and cattle with them. It is believed that the Indo-Germanic groups, who brought the Indo-European languages and technical innovations such as wagons, domestic horses and metal weapons to Europe, may have originated from this region.

Until now, experts assumed that this transfer of technology was based on the long-distance migrations and trade contacts of these mobile pastoral communities, and that this mobility connected the Middle East with Europe. An international research team, with the participation of the University of Basel, has now questioned whether these communities did actually travel over such long distances. They published their study in the journal Plos One.

Nutrition reveals low levels of mobility

The researchers reconstructed the diet of the Bronze Age pastoral societies in order to draw conclusions about their migration. Their analysis was based on skeletal remains from burial mounds and flat grave cemeteries on the plateaus of the Caucasus and the steppes bordering to the north. "These human bones and teeth are archaeological treasures," says the study's author Professor Kurt Alt, visiting professor at the University of Basel and professor at Danube Private University in Krems. "They are fundamental resources for gaining a deeper understanding of economic strategies, the mobility patterns associated with them and social differentiation."

The research team analyzed the isotopic composition of carbon and nitrogen in bone collagen from the skeletal remains of 150 people, taken from eight sites. The finds date back to a period from about 5000 to about 500 BCE. In addition, the scientists compared this data with the isotope ratios in the bone collagen of 50 animals, as well as with the local vegetation of that time. The isotope ratios in bone collagen reflect the isotope ratios in the main foodstuffs that a person eats.

As it turns out, the diets of these groups were mainly based on the foodstuffs within the landscapes where their remains were found. "The communities apparently remained within their respective ecological areas and did not switch between the steppes, forest steppes or higher regions," explains Sandra Pichler from the Department of Environmental Sciences at the University of Basel, co-author of the study. According to the isotope analysis, meat, milk and dairy products formed a large part of these individuals' basic diets, but they were supplemented by wild plants, too. It was not until the end of the Bronze Age that their diets began to be based more on cultivated cereals, with millet presumably the main crop in this regard.

Technology transfer by word of mouth

"This study's findings imply that Caucasian communities were not highly mobile and did not undertake large-scale migrations, suggesting that the revolutionary technical innovations of the 4th and 3rd millennium BCE, such as wagons or metal weapons, were transmitted in other ways."

If the pastoral communities of the time only moved across shorter distances, technologies could have been passed on from one group to the next transmitting the knowledge of metal weapons, the processing of bronze and the domestication of horses into Europe by word of mouth.

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For the study, researchers from the University of Basel and the Berlin German Archaeological Institute (DAI) collaborated with scientists from the Curt Engelhorn Centre Archaeometry in Mannheim (Germany), the Nasledie heritage organization in Stavropol (Russia) and the Universities of Moscow (Russia) and Krems (Austria).

French NGOs take Twitter to court for failing to moderate hate speech

CIVIL SOCIETY NOT THE STATE


Issued on: 19/10/2020 - 

Twitter's logo displayed on a mobile phone on May 27, 2020, in Arlington, Virginia, USA.
 © Olivier Douliery, AFP

Text by:
Sophie GORMAN


French NGOs took Twitter to court in Paris on Monday morning, accusing the social media giant of not doing enough to tackle hate speech online.

Four French NGOs – SOS Racisme, SOS Homophobie, the Union of Jewish Students of France and J'accuse – filed suit against Twitter on May 11. A Paris court began hearing the case on Monday before postponing further hearings until December 1; Twitter and the NGOs have agreed to take part in mediation ahead of the next session.


At the heart of the case is Twitter’s refusal to provide information on its moderation processes. The four NGOs have filed to obtain this data.

Social network platforms are required by the new French Avia Law combatting online hate speech (May 2020) to make public how they limit the dissemination of such content and how they respond to reports. For example, they need to reveal the number of moderators, where they work and the training they have received. Twitter does not share this information.

Social media networks have come under renewed fire in France in recent days after the decapitation of a teacher was posted on Twitter. A photograph of the teacher's body, accompanied by a message claiming responsibility, was posted on the social network. It was also discovered on the assailant's phone, found near his body. France’s anti-terrorism prosecutor, Jean-François Ricard, confirmed on Saturday that the Twitter account belonged to the attacker.

The post was swiftly removed by Twitter, which also said it had suspended the account for violating its company policies.

Twitter’s low removal policy

In the European Commission’s 5th code of conduct on countering hate speech online, published in June 2020, Twitter came bottom of the league when it came to removing hate speech. The review covered a period of six weeks at the end of 2019. Facebook removed 87.6 percent of the content, YouTube removed 79.7 percent, but Twitter only took down 35.9 percent.

So is Twitter the worst offender when it comes to content moderation? “Yes, if you only consider the top four (Instagram, Twitter, Facebook and YouTube) – but there are hundreds of other social media platforms,” said lawyer Philippe Coen, who founded the Respect Zone NGO to target cyber violence. “Twitter has, in fact, made many efforts to improve its moderation in recent months. It just needs to make a lot more.”

“Interestingly, the CEOs of all the main social media platforms are themselves asking for more defined regulations in terms of hate content. They cannot act without the supporting legislation. And there are many ways to fight cyber bulling other than just in court. You need to start with schools and companies and societies. We don’t want to work against the social media platforms, we want to work with them.”

Twitter refused to comment on the case.

Is Twitter responsible for bullying?

As cyber violence has risen exponentially in recent years, there has also been a move to increase the obligation of host providers to moderate content. However, it is still not clearly regulated.

Social networks are not currently legally responsible for their content. They have the legal status of a host, which limits their legal responsibility for content published on their networks. They are only required to delete content after a report has been made and if it clearly breaches the law.

The question at issue in the courts is whether Twitter has neglected its legal responsibility to moderate content.

“The term negligence legally refers to a fault of imprudence, a breach of the duty of care or a lack of diligence,” said French information technology and data privacy lawyer Olivia Luzi, speaking with FRANCE 24. “Given the legal obligations currently imposed on platforms and, in reality, the enormous task of monitoring all content at the exact moment it appears online rather than from the moment it is reported, it is difficult to qualify what constitutes negligence.”

“Twitter currently has in place reporting and removal measures which are within the European Commission's recommendations. They must review the majority of reports within 24 hours and, if necessary, block access to them,” explains Luzi.

“This case against Twitter will affect all hosting providers and therefore all social media, particularly online journals and their comment sections,” says Luzi. “They can no longer systematically hide behind the great and beautiful principles of freedom of expression to tolerate that social media tools are hijacked from their purpose and used as a vector of hatred. It is up to these organisations to take initiatives to moderate without necessarily being accused of censorship, and to collaborate in building a digital world that reflects the values they advocate.”

Defining hate speech

In September, the World Federation of Advertisers announced it had reached an agreement with Facebook, Twitter and YouTube. For the first time, they agreed on common definitions of content such as hate speech and aggression, established harmonised reporting standards across platforms and empowered external auditors to oversee the system, which will launch in the second half of 2021.

In July, an independent audit conducted by Facebook itself accused the social network of failing to tackle hate speech and fake news. Auditors, who included the Anti-Defamation League, denounced it for putting free speech above all else.

A week ago, Facebook explicitly banned Holocaust denial for the first time.

The social network said its new policy prohibits "any content that denies or distorts the Holocaust". Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg wrote that he had "struggled with the tension" between free speech and banning such posts, but that "this is the right balance".

“This move by Facebook is a revolution, it surprised everyone,” said Coen. “It’s a long, long battle for all the social media platforms, though, and we are only at the beginning of it. We are working now to try to convince digital companies to include in their digital design the ideas of human dignity and respect, which has been completely forgotten by the architects of these platforms. These sites are designed to catch your money and your data, but not your decency.”