Showing posts sorted by relevance for query ARMENIA. Sort by date Show all posts
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Sunday, June 25, 2023

Armenia at a crossroads: will the country leave Russia's sphere of influence

Arthur KhachatryanYerevan

Crisis in relations between Armenia and Russia

“If Armenia de jure decides to withdraw from the CSTO, then this will happen after Yerevan records that the CSTO has left Armenia.” Similar statements by Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan have been heard since May 2021, when Armenia turned to Russia with a request to protect the borders of Armenia and received no assistance.

The situation is aggravated by the fact that the Armenian authorities did not wait not only for military assistance to protect their territory, but also for a political statement from Russia and the CSTO allies. They still did not state that the Azerbaijani Armed Forces had invaded the sovereign territory of the country. Moreover, they refused to assist allied Armenia under the pretext that the delimitation and demarcation of the border had not been carried out.

“Over the past two years, Armenia has been subjected to aggression by Azerbaijan at least three times. It is depressing that Armenia’s membership in the CSTO did not deter Azerbaijan from aggressive actions and that, in fact, until today we have not been able to reach a decision on the CSTO’s reaction to this aggression. These facts cause great damage to the image of the CSTO both inside and outside our country,” Pashinyan said.

The prime minister does not rule out that Armenia may leave the military bloc operating under the leadership of Russia. If this really happens, Yerevan will actually break allied relations with Moscow and take a course towards integration with the West. At the same time, the rating of Armenia’s strategic ally is already at the lowest positions in the last 30 years.


Withdrawal from CSTO not on the agenda of Yerevan: What is the danger?


What started the crisis?

The fact that relations between Armenia and Russia are going through hard times, to put it mildly, is already openly stated. The Armenian authorities have never directly criticized Moscow and the CSTO in this way. People in Armenia are watching with surprise Pashinyan’s string of statements critical of Russia, including the inaction of Russian peacekeepers stationed in Nagorno-Karabakh.

In particular, the Prime Minister of Armenia criticized RMK, commenting on the blockade of the Lachin corridor, the only road linking the unrecognized republic with Armenia:

“Of course, this is due to the actions of Azerbaijan, but this does not change the meaning. This is the key meaning of the presence of Russian peacekeepers – not to allow illegal actions and to keep the Lachin corridor under control.”

Yerevan’s dissatisfaction with the position of Moscow and the countries belonging to the Collective Security Treaty Organization grew like a snowball. It all started with incidents on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border after the 2020 war in Nagorno-Karabakh.

The country’s authorities say that over the past two years, Azerbaijan has several times launched large-scale military operations, simultaneously conducting creeping expansion and deepening deep into the territory of Armenia. Weakened after the defeat in the second Karabakh war, Armenia counted heavily on the support of the allies.

“The aggression against the sovereign territory of Armenia from May 2021 to September 13, 2022 was doubly painful because our security allies left us alone, preferring to remain in the status of a passive observer or offering the status of an active observer as an alternative,” Pashinyan said.
Instead of military assistance, the CSTO sent a mission to Armenia to study “the situation in certain areas on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan.” In the photo – the meeting of the members of the mission with the Minister of Defense of Armenia following the results of the work. 
Photo from the CSTO website

Russian and Western platforms for Baku-Yerevan negotiations: Similarities and differences

The Armenian authorities say that the same issues are being discussed on all platforms, but experts say that the approaches and emphasis on them are different. Commentary by political scientist Stepan Grigoryan


Was this the only reason for the crisis?

Talk that pro-European forces might come to power in Armenia intensified during the 2018 Velvet Revolution. Then everyone remembered that the leader of the movement, opposition politician Pashinyan, made statements about the need to leave the Eurasian Economic Union, operating under the auspices of Russia.

But when he got to power, Pashinyan changed his rhetoric and first of all declared that Yerevan was not going to leave any integration structures, and even more so, he was not striving for a political reverse. But these were only words, the political observer Arman Abovyan believes:

“It is enough just to study the composition of the so-called youth wing of the revolutionaries in 2018. They were quite active in the public arena. These are the same people who once organized anti-Russian actions in front of the Russian embassy. Even in the current government there are such people.”

In the top leadership of the country, there are indeed so-called “pronounced Westerners” who, until 2018, harshly criticized Moscow’s policy towards Armenia. The most prominent figure among them is Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan.Pashinyan and his team on the main square of Yerevan after the victory of the revolution. Photo JAMnews

At the same time, having come to power, Nikol Pashinyan and the team constantly declared their desire to bring relations with Moscow to a qualitatively new level. The leaders of the two countries met regularly, and it seemed that Armenia and Russia were satisfied with each other’s relations.

At the initial stage of his premiership, Pashinyan really did not think about changing his foreign policy course, political scientist Ruben Mehrabyan is sure:

“In 2018, there was an illusion that there was even an opportunity to build qualitatively new relations, to deepen ties with Russia. And the new democratic authorities of Armenia are able to do this. But life has shown that it was not only an illusion. It was a dangerous illusion. And now there is no stone left unturned from this illusion.”

An interview with the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia on relations with Russia

Novaya Gazeta Europe published Armen Grigoryan’s opinion on issues of acute public concern


Is Armenia really taking a direction to the West?

After the 2020 war, Russia appeared to have established “one-man hegemony in the South Caucasus region” that was only marginally disturbed by Turkey’s presence. But after the Ukrainian events, Moscow began to rapidly lose ground.

On September 13, 2022, the largest escalation since the war took place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. A few days later, Speaker of the US House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi arrived in Armenia, and world media reported that it was thanks to Washington that the September clashes were stopped. This, perhaps, was a turning point in the post-war cycle of the Karabakh settlement.

The situation worsened every time Armenia and Azerbaijan clashed at the border, and Russia remained silent. All this has led to Washington and Brussels becoming the main moderators in the negotiation process.Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan in Washington, during talks mediated by US Secretary of State Blinken

“At the behest of circumstances, Armenia is still reconsidering its relations with Russia. This is first. Secondly, Armenia has fixed its commonality with the interests, values and goals of the European Union and considers the EU as a promising partner. However, Armenia does not have a final solution to generalize this picture. Because Armenia continues to be a member of structures that are contrary to the state interests and security of Armenia,” political scientist Ruben Mehrabyan describes the current state of affairs.

In parallel with this, the realities were changing in Nagorno-Karabakh. Last December, Azerbaijanis who called themselves environmental activists blocked the Lachin corridor. And Russia actually did not take any effective measures to unblock it. Then Baku went further and, with the tacit consent of the Russian peacekeepers, established a checkpoint in the Lachin corridor. Thus, the road is now effectively not controlled by Russia, as the 2020 tripartite statement suggests.

“Armenia is not Russia’s ally in the war with Ukraine” – Pashinyan interview with CNN

Frank answers from the Prime Minister of Armenia in the Prima News program about the geographical and geopolitical problems of the country, relations with neighbors and even personal questions


Rejection of Karabakh

The further Azerbaijan went and the longer Moscow was silent, the weaker became Yerevan’s negotiating positions. Military escalations on the border have become a way of putting pressure on the Armenian authorities. All this led to the fact that Nikol Pashinyan publicly stated and then confirmed Yerevan’s official position in the negotiations – Armenia is ready to recognize Nagorno-Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan:

“A peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan will become real if both countries clearly, without ambiguity, recognize each other’s territorial integrity and undertake not to present territorial claims to each other today and ever. Now I want to confirm that the Republic of Armenia fully recognizes the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan, and we expect Azerbaijan to do the same by recognizing the entire territory of the Armenian SSR as the Republic of Armenia.”

A superficial analysis of the situation may give the impression that Armenia is forced to take such a step. But this is a more thoughtful and long-term policy, Arman Abovyan believes. Its goal is to change the vector in foreign policy:

“This government is the executor for those geopolitical centers whose main goal is to oust the eastern vector from the region of the South Caucasus: Russia, Iran and partly China.”

Experts voice the version that the end result of this process should be the opening of the border with Turkey through concessions on the Karabakh issue. If this happens, Armenia will receive the shortest communication to Europe, which can significantly expand the possibilities for cooperation between Yerevan and Brussels.

Is Washington threatening a counter-terrorist operation in Karabakh? Comments from Yerevan and Baku

Russian media, citing a “diplomatic source”, reported that Washington is forcing representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh to agree to a meeting with the Azerbaijani side.



Does this correspond to the national interests of Armenia?

In what direction should Armenia move in foreign policy. This is perhaps one of the most significant discourses on the Armenian political agenda. If a few years ago the vast majority of the country’s population approved of the policy of the authorities to deepen cooperation with Moscow, the war of 2020 and subsequent events have changed the opinion of society. Now only 35 percent of the population considers Russia a friendly country, while before the war this figure was over 50 percent. For comparison, France is considered friendly by 45 percent.

Another important question that the Armenian analytical community is trying to answer is why Russia is pursuing such a policy towards Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. And experts associate the main answer to this question with the Ukrainian crisis.

After the closure of borders with European countries and Western sanctions, Russia became heavily dependent on Turkey and even Azerbaijan for communications and hydrocarbon exports. It is Türkiye that is now the main and main route of export and import for Russia. In such a situation, Moscow simply cannot afford to “offend” Ankara and Baku and not yield to them on the issues of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia.

Pashinyan interrupts Putin: what was his objection? Analyst comments

Yerevan is discussing the visit of the Armenian Prime Minister to Moscow, in particular, the moment when the Armenian Prime Minister interrupted the Russian President to react to Aliyev’s speech



Understanding these realities should lead to a renewal of Armenia’s foreign policy, political scientist Gurgen Simonyan is sure:

“It is time to express a clear position and leave the military-political union of the CSTO. As a result of the military aggression in 2020, the expectations that we had from Russia in the context of bilateral agreements, and not only from Russia, but also from the CSTO, to put it mildly, did not satisfy us. If not to say that they dealt a serious blow to our national security.”

Armenia is also dissatisfied with the fact that Russia does not supply weapons purchased from it earlier, for which, by the way, it was paid. In this situation, Yerevan significantly intensified contacts with India, as well as France. That is, the country intends to change, at least diversify, the vector of military-technical cooperation.

Will Yerevan be able to build a new security architecture in conditions of severe turbulence? And, most importantly, what are the consequences of this process? Questions that are still open. One thing is clear – Yerevan has already begun to review relations with Moscow for the first time since independence.

Another meeting between Pashinyan and Putin. 
Photo by the press service of the Armenian government

With the support of Russian language news exchange “Mediaset”

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

Fears of a Second War in Europe as Azerbaijan Launches Military Attack

Allison Quinn
Tue, September 19, 2023 

Reuters


Azerbaijan carried out strikes on the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday as it announced the launch of an “anti-terror” operation, a move that threatens to trigger another war in the region.

The country’s Defense Ministry said it was using “high-precision weapons” to “incapacitate” Armenian-backed forces and target Armenian military positions in a push to force out “formations of Armenia’s armed forces.”

Footage purportedly filmed in Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, which is called Khankendi by Azerbaijan, captured the sounds of loud shelling and artillery fire.

The Gravedigger Who Fears Digging His Own Son’s Grave in Nagorno-Karabakh

“At this moment, the capital Stepanakert and other cities and villages are under intensive fire,” an Armenia-based separatist group warned on social media, calling it a “large-scale military offensive.”

Officials in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, said civilians were free to leave the area via humanitarian corridors and insisted that “the civilian population and civilian infrastructure are not targets.”

Azerbaijan and Armenia have feuded for decades over Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population.

Attack Drones Dominating Tanks as Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Showcases the Future of War

A bloody 2020 war between the two former Soviet rivals ended with Azerbaijan recapturing land of historical significance to Armenians. A Russian-brokered ceasefire deal to end that war did little to ease tensions in the region, with the two sides continuing to hurl allegations and periodic reports of shelling.

Armenia has said it does not have any armed forces in Karabakh, and on Tuesday said the “situation on the borders of the Republic of #Armenia is relatively stable.”

Azerbaijan launches military action in Karabakh 'to disarm' Armenians

Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 



Gunfire and explosions heard in Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh

BAKU (Reuters) -Azerbaijan launched military action in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a step that could presage a new war in the volatile area but which Baku said was necessary to restore constitutional order and drive out Armenian military formations.

Karabakh is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory but part of it is run by breakaway ethnic Armenian authorities who say the area is their ancestral homeland. It has been at the centre of two wars - the latest in 2020 - since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.

It was not clear whether Baku's actions would trigger a full-scale conflict dragging in neighbouring Armenia or be a more limited military operation. But there were already signs of political fallout in Yerevan where Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke of calls for a coup against him.

The fighting could alter the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus region, which is crisscrossed with oil and gas pipelines, and where Russia - distracted by its own war in Ukraine - is seeking to preserve its influence in the face of greater interest from Turkey, which backs Azerbaijan.

Loud and repeated shelling was audible from social media footage filmed in Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, called Khankendi by Azerbaijan, on Tuesday.

The Karabakh separatist human rights ombudsman, Gegham Stepanyan, said that two civilians had been killed and 11 people injured as a result of strikes by Azerbaijan's military. Reuters could not immediately verify his assertion.

In a statement announcing its operation, Azerbaijan's defence ministry spoke of its intention to "disarm and secure the withdrawal of formations of Armenia’s armed forces from our territories, (and) neutralise their military infrastructure".

It said it was only targeting legitimate military targets using "high-precision weapons" and not civilians as part of what it called a drive to "restore the constitutional order of the Republic of Azerbaijan".

Civilians were free to leave by humanitarian corridors, it added, including one to Armenia, whose prime minister, Pashinyan, said the offer looked like another attempt by Baku to get ethnic Armenians to leave Karabakh as part of a campaign of what he called "ethnic cleansing", an accusation Baku denies.

Ethnic Armenian forces in Karabakh said Azerbaijani forces were trying to break through their defences after heavy shelling, but that they were holding the line for now.

Armenia, which had been holding peace talks with Azerbaijan, including on questions about Karabakh's future, condemned what it called Baku's "full-scale aggression" against the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and accused Azerbaijan of shelling towns and villages.

"Driven by a sense of impunity, Azerbaijan has openly claimed responsibility for the aggression," Armenia's foreign ministry said in a statement.

Reuters could not immediately verify battlefield assertions from either side.

APPEAL FOR HELP

Armenia, which says its armed forces are not in Karabakh and that the situation on its own border with Azerbaijan is stable, called on members of the U.N. Security Council to help and for Russian peacekeepers on the ground to intervene.

Russia, which brokered a fragile ceasefire after the war in 2020 which saw Azerbaijan recapture swathes of land in and around Karabakh that it had lost in an earlier conflict in the 1990s, called for all sides to stop fighting.

Russia is in touch with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and has urged negotiations to resolve the Karabakh conflict, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, adding that Moscow considered ensuring civilian safety the most important issue.

Armenia has accused Moscow of being too distracted by its own war in Ukraine to protect its own security and has accused Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh of failing to do their job.

Speaking inside Karabakh with artillery rumbling in the background, Ruben Vardanyan, a banker who was a top official in Karabakh's ethnic Armenian administration until February, appealed for Armenia to recognise Karabakh's self-declared independence from Azerbaijan.

He also called on the international community to impose sanctions on Baku.

"A really serious situation has unfolded here," Vardanyan said on Telegram. "Azerbaijan has started a full-scale military operation against 120,000 inhabitants, of which 30,000 are children, pregnant women and old people," he said.

The Armenian government held a security council meeting to discuss the situation as people gathered in the government district in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, to demand the authorities take action.

Baku announced its operation after complaining that six of its citizens had been killed by land mines in two separate incidents, something it blamed on "illegal Armenian armed groups." Armenia said the claims were false.

The escalation occurred a day after badly needed food and medicine was delivered to Karabakh along two roads simultaneously, a step that looked like it could help defuse mounting tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Until the last few days, Baku had imposed sweeping restrictions on the Lachin corridor - the only road linking Armenia with Karabakh - and had blocked aid on the grounds that the route was purportedly being used for arms smuggling.

Yerevan had said that Baku's actions had caused a humanitarian catastrophe, something Azerbaijan denied, and were illegal.

Armenia's foreign ministry had said on Monday that Azerbaijan's diplomatic stance looked like it was preparing the ground for some kind of military action.

(Reporting by ReutersWriting by Andrew OsbornEditing by)
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Azerbaijan strikes targets in Nagorno-Karabakh, launches military operation
Elsa Court
Tue, September 19, 2023 



Azerbaijan has launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh with the claimed "goal of restoring the constitutional order," the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan announced on Sept. 19.

Azerbaijan has called it "local anti-terrorist measures." Baku also claimed that Yerevan has been attacking Azerbaijan's soldiers and building additional fortifications in the region.

The news comes after Azerbaijan claimed on Sept. 18 that Armenian forces fired on Azerbaijani outposts on the border between the two countries.

There's no evidence backing these claims at this time.

Armenian Defense Ministry said that the claims do not correspond to reality.

In Stepanakert or Khankendi, the de-facto capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, air raid sounded and there are reports of gunfire and explosions.

Attacks on communications infrastructure have led to a lack of internet and telephone connectivity in the territory, Andranik Shirinyan, Armenia Representative to Freedom House, said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as Azerbaijan's territory under international law, but its population of 120,000 is predominantly Armenian.

The territory declared independence in 1991 with Yerevan's military support. Until 2020, Armenia de facto controlled Nagorno-Karabakh together with the surrounding regions.

In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a military operation establishing control over parts of Nagorno Karabakh.

In November 2020, Russia brokered an armistice between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow sent forces to patrol the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.

In 2022, Yerevan accused Russia of failing its peacekeeping mission when Moscow began withdrawing its troops in 2022 and allowed Azerbaijan blockade Nagorno-Karabakh, preventing basic supplies from reaching the population.

The U.S. and EU have called on Azerbaijan to end the blockade.

In February 2023, he International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in favor of Yerevan's appeal to lift the blockade Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku denied imposing a blockade.

Commenting on the issue, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said that "Armenians living in the Karabakh must either accept Azerbaijani citizenship or look for another place to live."

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Why Armenia may be the next target for Russian aggression

Team Mighty
Mon, September 18, 2023 

Armenian opposition supporters march with torches during an anti-Russian rally against Russia's policy in the Karabakh conflict and its military action in Ukraine, in Yerevan on November 9, 2022. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN/AFP via Getty Images)

The small but mighty nation of Armenia is in an interesting geopolitical neighborhood. On its western border is Turkey, a NATO ally but longtime enemy. To its east is another enemy, Azerbaijan, with which Armenia just fought over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, claimed by both countries.

In the north is Georgia which is in a never ending war of words and spies (and sometimes actual wars) with Russia. Both Georgia and Armenia were part of the Soviet Union, but even when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, support for Russia in Armenia was high.

To Armenia south is Iran, which, for the moment, is friendly to Russia-aligned Armenia. But in late September 2023, Armenia will host the United States for a joint military exercise. The move is far more threatening to Russia, which hosts Russian military forces as part of its Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) membership. The exercises are the latest in a split between Russia and Armenia, which could permanently break their relations – or worse.

Armenia and Russia have retained close relations since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Armenia joined Russia in the Commonwealth of Independent States, and joined the economic military and mutual aid collaboration of the CSTO in 1997. But since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was elected to lead Armenia in 2018, the country has been slowly breaking away from Russia’s sphere of influence.

When fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out over the Nagorno-Karabakh region once again in 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t immediately intervene, cooling relations between the two even more. Pashinyan went further in September 2023.

“Moscow has been unable to deliver and is in the process of winding down its role in the wider South Caucasus region," Pashinyan said. "The Russian Federation cannot meet Armenia's security needs. This example should demonstrate to us that dependence on just one partner in security matters is a strategic mistake."

The Prime Minister’s words come after Armenia announced it sent the first lady of the country to deliver humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It has also begun to further distance itself from the Russia-led CSTO. The military drills are just Armenia’s latest effort at realigning itself with the West.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the drills are “cause for concern” and Moscow will “monitor the situation.”

Armenia now finds itself in a Ukraine-like situation. Tired of dealing with Russian hegemony, which has caused a lot of economic hardships in Armenia, the Armenian government is beginning to look further and further West toward the U.S. and EU.

But Russia has built up a lot of armed forces inside Armenia. Even worse, Russians fleeing the war in Ukraine have moved to Armenia in droves, meaning Moscow has the ability to hide its own people among the refugees there, a potential hidden “fifth column” like the tactic used to seize Crimea.

Enemies on three borders, a country potentially filled with pro-Russian sympathizers and an ever-worsening lack of external will to keep Armenia independent could mean Armenia loses its independence entirely. It could be one more former Soviet republic absorbed by Putin’s dream of rebuilding the USSR.

Blinken likely to get involved in Armenia-Azerbaijan diplomatic engagement -US official

Humeyra Pamuk
Tue, September 19, 2023

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken chairs U.N. Security Council meeting on famine, food insecurity

By Humeyra Pamuk

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The United States is engaging in diplomatic outreach after Azerbaijan launched "anti-terrorist activities" in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, adding that the incident was particularly dangerous.

A senior U.S. State Department official said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was likely to get involved in the next 24 hours in the diplomatic engagement already under way on the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Blinken discussed the situation and stated the need for de-escalation, Interfax reported, citing the Armenian government.

Azerbaijan launched military action in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a step that could presage a new war in the volatile area but which Baku said was necessary to restore constitutional order and drive out Armenian military formations.

A second senior State Department official said the incident overnight was "particularly egregious and particularly dangerous, so we'll obviously be in touch with all sides."

Karabakh is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory but part of it is run by breakaway ethnic Armenian authorities who say the area is their ancestral homeland. It has been at the center of two wars - the latest in 2020 - since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.

This week, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was able to make simultaneous aid deliveries via the Lachin corridor and a separate road linking Karabakh to the Azerbaijani city of Aghdam.

Despite that, tensions have risen sharply this month, with Armenia and Azerbaijan accusing each other of building up troops.

"It's concerning that this happened overnight, especially because we did see some progress yesterday with shipments moving through the Lachin corridor," the first official said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have already fought two wars over Karabakh in the three decades since the Soviet Union collapsed. Both had been part of the Soviet Union.

Analysts say successive rounds of talks, mediated variously by the European Union, the United States and Russia, have brought the two sides closer to a permanent peace treaty than they have been for years, but a final settlement remains elusive.

(Reporting by Doina Chiacu and Humeyra Pamuk; Writing by Daphne Psaledakis; Editing by Howard Goller)

Key Democrat chafes at US response to Armenia-Azerbaijan crisis

Lydia McFarlane
Fri, September 15, 2023



Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) expressed frustration Thursday with the Biden administration’s lack of urgency in addressing what the United States has described as a “rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation” in Nagorno-Karabakh, a hotly disputed region at the center of rising tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Menendez, while chairing of a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the crisis, said he was “amazed” by the responses from Yuri Kim, the acting assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs.

“I have been doing this for 31 years. I am amazed sometimes at what the department comes before this committee and says,” he said at the end of the hearing.

The senator’s frustration centered on the administration’s application of Section 907 of the United States Freedom Support Act, which bans direct support to the Azerbaijani government. However, Kim listed various reasons that ban has been waived, mainly to bolster Azerbaijan’s anti-terror efforts and secure its border with Iran.

Menendez argued that the U.S. was only helping the regime of Azerbaijan’s authoritarian President Ilham Aliyev, whom the senator blamed for a blockade that has cut off Karabakh in apparent violation of a 2020 truce between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“I have repeatedly expressed my deep opposition about waiving Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, allowing the United States to send assistance to his regime,” he said. “This clearly alters the balance of military power between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Aliyev’s favor. I think Azerbaijan’s actions over the past three years have vindicated my skepticism.”

Earlier this year, Azerbaijani troops began a blockade of the Lachin corridor, which has reportedly led to the starvation of indigenous Armenians in the semi-autonomous Nagorno-Karabakh.

The U.S. State Department released a statement Sept. 10 warning of the “urgent need” for humanitarian supplies in the region, but it avoided assigning direct blame.

“The United States is deeply concerned about the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh,” the statement reads. “We note that humanitarian supplies are positioned near both the Lachin and Aghdam routes, and we repeat our call for the immediate and simultaneous opening of both corridors to allow passage of desperately needed humanitarian supplies to the men, women, and children in Nagorno-Karabakh. We also urge leaders against taking any actions that raise tensions or distract from this goal. The use of force to resolve disputes is unacceptable.”

When Menendez asked Kim why Aliyev refused to open to corridor despite numerous promises to do so, Kim responded, “We can have that conversation in a different setting, sir.”

Menendez shook his head before saying, “What would be classified?”

“I’ll give you an unclassified answer: He won’t open the corridor because he is trying to subjugate these people by starvation or by the threat of starvation and subject them to his will,” the senator continued.

In renewing the Section 907 waiver, the Biden administration has argued that targeted U.S. assistance is not undermining broader efforts to broker lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who fought a 44-day war over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.

Yet the Armenian American community sees the extension of the waiver as a betrayal following Biden’s historic decision in 2021 to recognize, for the first time, the Armenian Genocide.

Menendez has been a consistent opponent of the waiver, and while the waiver is up for renewal, Menendez said he is doubtful the administration will change its stance.

Menendez delivered remarks on the Senate floor Tuesday urging the Biden administration to take immediate action in holding Aliyev accountable for the blockade, which has the characteristics of genocide, according to Article II of the U.N. Genocide Convention.

So far, there is one reported death amid severe food shortages in Nagorno-Karabakh, with many more expected to follow without immediate assistance. Kim noted that with U.S. pressure, one truck has made it through the blockade with humanitarian aid.

“One truck is not mercy,” Menendez said.

That truck was also Russian, which was cause for concern for members of the committee. Moscow mediated the 2020 ceasefire, but Kim said it was proving to be an unreliable broker.

Russia is Armenia’s sole provider of energy and has a military presence in the country. Kim said the crisis offered the U.S. an opportunity to rebalance Armenia’s geopolitical relationships in America’s favor, as Armenians become disillusioned with Russia as an ally amid the Ukraine war.

“[Armenians] are beginning to have second thoughts about having invited Russian troops onto their territory, relying on Russia as their sole source of energy, [and] hosting Russian military installations in their lands,” Kim said.

While Kim repeatedly reassured the committee that the State Department is working hard to reopen the corridor and avoid impending genocide, Menendez was unconvinced.

“I just hope you’ll tell the secretary [of State] on my behalf: I would hate to see this administration stand by and allow ethnic cleansing to take place on their watch and under their eye,” Menendez said.

Azerbaijani forces using Russian-style symbols are massing on the border of Armenia

James Kilner
Fri, September 15, 2023 

The ∀ symbol on military vehicle of the Azerbaijani army, which is moving to the border with Armenia

Azerbaijan’s military is building up its forces near Armenia and has painted its vehicles with “war markings” similar to ones used by the Russian army before it invaded Ukraine.

Open-source intelligence shared with the Telegraph by The Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) appears to back up Armenian claims that Azerbaijan is preparing for war.

Alongside intensified activity at Azerbaijani bases, CIR said that it had also detected an increase in flights between Azerbaijan and a military airfield in Israel, one of its allies, and opposing military manoeuvres by Iran, which is allied to Armenia.

“It is possible these are routine movements but analysis of other open-source data available may further indicate military build-up,” said Kyle Glen, a CIR investigator.

The Azerbaijani military symbols are an inverted “A” and stylised “F” and have been painted mainly on army infantry trucks and armoured personnel carriers.

Azerbaijan has not explained the symbols but the Russian military used “V” and “Z” symbols as battle group identifiers before it invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and, as in Russia, Azerbaijani nationalists have also adopted these military markings as avatars and logos.

For the Armenian government, Azerbaijan’s intentions are clear.

“We are concerned that a new war could start, or at least a large-scale build-up of aggression,” said Vahan Kostanyan, Armenia’s deputy foreign minister.

Azerbaijan has previously denied this. Its foreign ministry did not respond to the Telegraph’s requests for comment.

Armenia claims it is possible that Azerbaijan is preparing for an invasion

The focus of the force build-up is the border area around Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous parcel of land roughly the size of Somerset that Azerbaijan and Armenia have disputed and fought over since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In a five-week war in 2020, roughly 7,000 people were killed. Azerbaijan defeated Armenia in the war, using Turkish drones for the first time, before the Kremlin stepped in to impose a ceasefire.

But analysts said that with the Kremlin distracted by its invasion of Ukraine and Western influence limited in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev is now looking to finish his lifetime ambition of driving all ethnic Armenians out of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

“We’re at a dangerous point and we are only a couple of steps away from a new conflict,” said Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.

The war in Ukraine has also ripped up traditional alliances, fracturing the inherently unstable South Caucasus.

Armenia’s most important ally and business partner has been Russia and the Kremlin had been seen as a guarantor of Armenian independence. Under the 2020 peace deal that stopped the war, Russian soldiers were given a peacekeeping role and the Kremlin keeps one of its biggest overseas military bases outside Gyumri, Armenia’s second city.

But Armenia has accused the Kremlin of ignoring Azerbaijani aggression because it didn’t back its invasion of Ukraine and it has shifted its diplomatic focus towards the West. Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian prime minister, sent his wife to Kyiv this month with humanitarian aid and has hosted American soldiers for a military exercise, infuriating the Kremlin.

Mr de Waal said that Armenia’s diplomatic shift was understandable. “If Russia doesn’t protect you, what is the utility of the relationship?” he said.

If the war in Ukraine has been a disaster for Armenia’s relations with Russia, it has been a major boon for Azerbaijan, which has increased its gas supplies to Europe.

EU leaders have flown to Baku to shake hands with Mr Aliyev and have welcomed Azerbaijani diplomats in Brussels, making it far harder for them to constrain him. Azerbaijan has also rebuilt its damaged links with Russia, buying extra Russian gas to supplement its supplies to the EU.

Another major headache, analysts have said, is that any potential new war around Nagorno-Karabakh could have wider implications and make it more explosive than the 2020 war. As well as Israel, Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan and Pakistan is an arms supplier. Armenia has developed an alliance with Iran, although it has insisted that this is not a military alliance, and it buys weapons from India.

Azerbaijan’s has painted its vehicles with 'war markings' similar to ones used by the Russian army

Pressure has been building around Nagorno-Karabakh over the past couple of years. There are regular deadly skirmishes along the border, but it is now firmly focused on a single stretch of road 20 miles long called the Lachin Corridor that links mainland Armenia with a mountain plateau.

Since December, Azerbaijan has blocked the Lachin corridor, first using civilian environmental protesters and then installing a blockade that stops even aid convoys from reaching the city of Stepanakert, all overseen by watching and impassive Russian soldiers.

Roughly 120,000 ethnic Armenians live on this mountain plateau, in and around Stepanakert, which is now cut off.

Luisine, who lives in Stepanakert, said that bread, meat and medical supplies are tightly rationed and that people have reverted to a form of mediaeval subsistence existence.

“There hasn’t been bread for three days,” she said by telephone. “When I walk through the streets I hear children begging their mothers for food and their mothers crying because they have no answers.”

Stepanakert’s stores are bare and there is no coffee, tea or tobacco. Farmers carry basic produce to market on foot or by donkey and cart.

When Luisine visited the town’s main market this week, she said that only fresh mulberries and mulberry juice were on sale. “It’s terrifying right now,” she said.

The Armenian government has accused Azerbaijan of “genocide”. Azerbaijan has said that it installed the roadblock to stop arms smuggling and has offered an alternative route to reach the town.

For Anjelika it is clear that another war is imminent. She said that Azerbaijan wants to drive her from her village, a few miles from Stepanakert, and her son has been drafted into the local ethnic Armenian army.

“Things are terrible. Very bad,” she said, insisting that she won’t leave. “There is nothing left, no butter, salt, cereals, vegetables or hygiene products. Nothing.”

Saturday, February 24, 2024

WW3.0 THE BALKANS
Azerbaijan Preparing New Attack on Armenia: PM Pashinyan Tells France 24



MassisPost

YEREVAN — Azerbaijan is preparing a new attack on Armenia. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in a Thursday interview with France 24.

“Analyzing … statements made from official Baku, we come to the conclusion that yes, an attack on Armenia is very likely,” he told the TV channel.

Pashinyan complained that the Azerbaijani leadership is still reluctant to recognize Armenia’s border “without ambiguity” and continues to refer to much of Armenian territory as “Western Azerbaijan.”

He said Azerbaijan and Armenia had agreed in Prague and Brussels (with the suport of EU) that the peace treaty between them is to be based on three major principles – Armenia and Azerbaijan recognize each other’s territorial integrity within 29.800 and 86.600 square kilometers respectively, the delimitation and demarcation of their borders, are to be carried out on the basis of the Alma-Ata Declaration and all regional transport links are to be reopened.

He said Baku is not honoring understandings on the key parameters of an Armenian-Azerbaijani peace treaty reached by him and Aliyev during their meetings in 2022 and 2023 mediated by the European Union.

‘Our problem is to reflect these principles in the peace treaty. If they are observed, we will achieve peace. But if we look into the latest statements coming from Baku, we can assume that it is actually preparing a new attack on Armenia,” Pashinyan aid.

As an example, Pashinyan referred to Azerbaijani statements about ‘Western Azerbaijan.’ He said by these statements Azerbaijan makes claims to a significant part of Armenia’s territory.

“If the principles of territorial integrity and inviolability of borders are not recognized by Azerbaijan, it means that the


France Ready to Supply Short to Long-Range Missiles to Armenia



Published on 23 February 2024
MassisPost


YEREVAN — France will provide more weapons and other military assistance to Armenia to help the country defend its territory, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said during a first-ever visit to Yerevan on Friday.

“Threats hanging over Armenia force us to move forward faster,” he told Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. “It is very important for us to react and take necessary steps quickly.”

Speaking after talks with his Armenian counterpart Suren Papikyan held earlier in the day, Lecornu confirmed that Armenia took delivery the previous night of the first batch of French night-vision devices commissioned by it last year. The Armenian military will also receive soon air-defense radar systems and more armored personnel carriers from French manufacturers, he said.

The French defense group Thales signed with the Armenian Defense Ministry a contract for the supply of three GM200 radars during Papikyan’s visit to Paris last October. Papikyan and Lecornu signed at the time a “letter of intent” on Armenia’s future acquisition of short-range surface-to-air missiles manufactured by another French company.





Lecornu indicated that the supply of the Mistral air-defense systems is a matter of time. What is more, he expressed France’s readiness to also sell more long-range systems to Armenia. He further announced that a French military adviser specializing in air defense will be deployed in Armenia to help it neutralize “possible strikes by potential aggressors.”

“Nobody can reproach the Armenian army for boosting its defense capacity,” Lecornu told a joint news conference with Papikyan, clearly alluding to Azerbaijan’s strong criticism of French-Armenian military cooperation.

The Armenian minister emphasized, for his part, that Yerevan is acquiring these and other weapons for solely defensive purposes. In an apparent reference to Azerbaijan, he spoke of a “visible threat” to Armenia’s territorial integrity.

Neither minister shed light on a number of documents that were signed by them after their talks. The AFP news agency reported that the Armenian side also signed on Friday a supply contract with the French company PGM manufacturing sniper rifles. It said no details of the deal were made public.

The defense cooperation is part of a broader deepening of French-Armenian relations cemented by the existence of an influential Armenian community in France. It comes amid Armenia’s mounting tensions with Russia, its longtime ally. Neighboring Iran has also signaled unease over the pro-Western tilt in Armenian foreign policy.

“Our Iranian partners respect our cooperation with other partners, and I think our Russian and other partners should do the same because Armenia has no taboos when it comes to cooperation to the benefit of Armenia,” Papikian said in this regard.

Armenia is “turning to partners that are truly providers of security,” Lecornu said when asked to comment on the tensions between Yerevan and Moscow.

French Defense Minister visits Armenian Genocide Memorial


On February 23, the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Armenia Suren Papikyan, and the Minister for the Armed Forces of the French Republic, Sébastien Lecornu visited the Armenian Genocide Memorial and paid tribute to the memory of the victims.

The Ministers laid a wreath at the memorial and flowers at the Eternal Flame in memory of the innocent martyrs of the Armenian Genocide.



Saturday, October 31, 2020

Armenia asks Moscow for help amid Nagorno-Karabakh fighting

YEREVAN, Armenia — Armenia’s leader urged Russia on Saturday to consider providing security assistance to end more than a month of fighting over Nagorno-Karabakh, and both sides in the hostilities accused each other of breaking a mutual pledge not to target residential areas hours after it was mad.
© Provided by The Canadian Press

The fighting represents the biggest escalation in decades in a long conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the separatist territory. As Azerbaijani troops pushed farther into Nagorno-Karabakh, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to quickly discuss possible security aid to Armenia.

There was no immediate response from the Kremlin.

Russia, which has a military base in Armenia and has signed a pact obliging it to protect its ally in case of foreign aggression, faces a delicate balancing act, of trying to also maintain good ties with Azerbaijan and avoid a showdown with Turkey.

Pashinian’s request puts Russia in a precarious position: joining the fighting would be fraught with unpredictable consequences and risk an open conflict with Turkey, while refusing to offer protection to its ally Armenia would dent Moscow’s prestige.

Nagorno-Karabakh lies within Azerbaijan but has been under the control of ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia since a war there ended in 1994. The latest outburst of hostilities began Sept. 27 and left hundreds — perhaps thousands — dead, marking the worst escalation of fighting since the war’s end.

The foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met Friday in Geneva for a day of talks brokered by Russia, the United States and France, co-chairs of the so-called Minsk Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe that tries to mediate the decades-long conflict.

The talks concluded close to midnight with the two sides agreeing they “will not deliberately target civilian populations or non-military objects in accordance with international humanitarian law.”

But shortly after the mutual pledge was announced by the Minsk Group co-chairs, Nagorno-Karabakh authorities accused Azerbaijani forces of firing rockets at a street market and a residential building in the separatist region's capital, Stepanakert. They said that residential areas in the town of Shushi also came under Azerbaijani shelling.

In Stepanakert, shop owners came to their stalls to collect their merchandise and clear the debris after the shelling.

“It seems they reached these agreements, but there is no truce at all,” said Karen Markaryan, a shop owner. "People don’t believe these empty words. And what will happen next is only known to God.”

Azerbaijan's defence ministry denied targeting civilian areas, and in turn accused Armenian forces of shelling several regions of Azerbaijan.

The rapid failure of the latest attempt to contain the fighting follows the collapse of three successive cease-fires. A U.S.-brokered truce frayed immediately after it took effect Monday, just like two previous cease-fires negotiated by Russia. The warring sides have repeatedly blamed each other for violations.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has insisted that Azerbaijan has the right to reclaim its territory by force after three decades of fruitless international mediation. He said that Armenia must pledge to withdraw from Nagorno-Karabakh as a condition for a lasting truce.

Azerbaijani troops, which have relied on strike drones and long-range rocket systems supplied by Turkey, have reclaimed control of several regions on the fringes of Nagorno-Karabakh and pressed their offensive into the separatist territory from the south.

On Thursday, Nagorno-Karabakh’s separatist leader said Azerbaijani troops had advanced to within 5 kilometres (about 3 miles) of the strategically located town of Shushi just south of the region’s capital, Stepanakert, which sits on the main road linking Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.

With Azerbaijani troops moving deeper into Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia’s prime minister made his first public plea for Russia's assistance since the latest fighting started.

While Pashinian stopped short of directly asking Moscow to intervene militarily, he asked Putin to conduct “urgent consultations” on the “type and amount” of assistance that Russia could offer to ensure the security of Armenia. The Armenian leader argued that the fighting is raging increasingly close to the border of Armenia and pointed at alleged attacks on the Armenian territory.

During more than a month of fighting, Armenia and Azerbaijan have repeatedly accused each other of taking the fighting beyond Nagorno-Karabakh. Each side has denied the opposite claims.

Retired Lt. Gen. Yevgeny Buzhisnky, the former chief of the Russian Defence Ministry's international co-operation department, said Moscow would stay away from the conflict.

“I exclude the Russian military's involvement,” Buzhinsky was quoted as saying by the Interfax news agency. “Azerbaijan is far too important for Russia to wage a war against it and Turkey.”

He noted that Azerbaijan has tried to avoid hitting Armenian territory, so “there is no reason for the Russian military intervention.”

According to Nagorno-Karabakh officials, 1,166 of their troops and 39 civilians have been killed. Azerbaijani authorities haven’t disclosed their military losses, but say the fighting has killed at least 91 civilians and wounded 400. Putin said last week that, according to Moscow’s information, the actual death toll was significantly higher and nearing 5,000.

___

Associated Press writers Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.

Avet Demourian, The Associated Press

Russia to 'assist' Armenia if conflict with Azerbaijan spreads beyond Nagorno-Karabakh


Russia has pledged Armenia "all necessary assistance" if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict expands to Armenian territory. Shelling has broken a fourth internationally mediated ceasefire bid.


Russia would be prepared to render "all necessary assistance" to treaty partner Armenia if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict expanded to Armenian territory, Russia's Foreign Ministry declared Saturday.

Overnight, Armenia and Azerbaijan had again accused each other of shelling residential areas of the separatist Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh — internationally recognized as lying within Azerbaijan.

That followed a fourth ceasefire bid, negotiated Friday in Geneva via the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE).

At those six-hour talks, involving both countries' foreign ministers, the countries pledged not to target civilians and to provide lists of soldiers detained for potential exchanges.



Watch video 03:29
Fighting continues in Nagorno-Karabakh despite truce

Read more: Civilians suffer amid Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Armenia requests assistance

Early on Saturday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan had formally asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for "urgent consultations" on security assistance, reiterating that Turkey was backing Azerbaijan.

Russia and Armenia have a 1997 mutual assistance treaty, with Russia maintaining a base in Armenia's second-largest city of Gyumri.



Weeks of fighting have claimed hundreds of lives in the Nagorno-Karabakh region

Read more: Fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh: Ethnic Armenians in limbo

Shelling asserted by both sides

Nagorno-Karabakh authorities said Saturday shelling had struck the central market in Stepanakert, the enclave's largest city. Armenia's Defense Ministry said several civilians had been wounded in Shushi in the enclave's south.

Azerbaijan's Defense Ministry denied both accusations and said Azeri regions of Terter, Aghdam and Aghjabedi had come under artillery fire.

The monthlong conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh has officially claimed more than 1,200 lives but the actual death toll on all sides is thought to be substantially higher.

ipj/sms (AFP, dpa, Reuters)


DW RECOMMENDS

Germany under pressure to take sides in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Both Armenia and Azerbaijan have called on Germany to take a more active role in condemning the other over the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. But Berlin insists the two should come back to the negotiating table. 



Date 31.10.2020
Related Subjects Vladimir PutinArmeniaRussiaTurkeyAzerbaijanDmitry Medvedev
Keywords Nagorno-KarabakhArmeniaAzerbaijanRussiaTurkey

Permalink https://p.dw.com/p/3kgwY





Friday, October 06, 2023

Nagorno-Karabakh: Azerbaijan's energy wealth gives it de facto impunity for ethnic cleansing


Sossie Kasbarian, Senior Lecturer in Politics, University of Stirling
THE CONVERSATION
Fri, October 6, 2023 

A United Nations mission finally arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh on October 1 to find its towns and villages almost completely deserted. Two weeks after Azerbaijan launched an all-out military assault on the disputed territory in the south Caucasus, the Armenian government has said there are now almost no ethnic Armenians left in an area they have lived in for more than two millennia.

The only people left are reportedly either too old, too poor, too remote or too infirm to flee to safety along the Lachin corridor to Armenia.

Before the military assault, Armenians living in the enclave had been trapped and living under siege since December 12, 2022. Azerbaijan established an illegal blockade of the narrow land bridge connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia, blocking supplies, including food and medicine.

After more than nine months, having reduced the population of 120,000 to near starvation, Azerbaijan launched a military assault on September 19. The attack killed an estimated 200 Armenian troops and seized control of strategic high ground around the enclave.

Under the terms of the ceasefire that followed, both Armenian troops and the 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were required to disarm and disband. Armenians were given the “choice” of “reintegration” into Azerbaijan.

These sanitised terms mask a violence and dispossession that the pictures in the media last week can only hint at. The queues of desperate Armenians fleeing were so long that they could be viewed from space.


Map of Armenia and Azerbaijan showing Nagorno Karabakh


Dehumanisation of Armenians


It was always highly unlikely that any Armenians would “choose” to stay under Azeri control of Nagorno-Karabakh. The regime of President Ilham Aliyev does not tolerate criticism or plurality of voice among its own citizens.

So Azerbaijan’s pledge “to protect the rights and safety of ethnic Armenians” has a hollow ring. Azerbaijan is rated as a “consolidated authoritarian regime” by US-based democracy think tank Freedom House, which rates it at a paltry nine out of a possible freedom score of 100 and judges it as “not free”.

For decades, the Aliyev regime has promoted ethnic hatred of Armenians. Azerbaijan has actively worked for the eradication and appropriation of its Armenian religious and cultural heritage. This was referred to in a recent report as “the worst cultural genocide of the 21st century”.

Meanwhile, atrocities committed by Azeri troops during the previous Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020 have been well documented. The so-called “Military Trophies Park” in the Azeri capital of Baku, built as a memorial of the war, is filled with grotesque mannequins representing Armenians.

Ethnic hatred of Armenians is normalised by the government. A postage stamp issued in 2021 depicted the fumigation of Nagorno-Karabakh, implying that ethnic Armenians were a virus that needed to be eradicated (the stamp was not registered by the Universal Postal Union).

While Nagorno-Karabakh was being emptied, Azerbaijan reissued a map of Stepanakert, the capital city, with Azeri street names. One street has been renamed Enver Pasha, after one of the three Turkish architects of the Armenian genocide of 1915.

Caviar and energy diplomacy

Reporting of the conflict has largely overlooked the complex history and forces involved – as well as wider regional power struggles.

Instead, the global media has been lending credence to Azerbaijan’s script, referring to “anti-terrorist operations” against “separatists” and “ethnic Armenian rebels” to describe the Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians. This language obfuscates the expulsion of 120,000 Armenians from their ancestral homeland by a clear aggressor.

But Azerbaijan wields significant international influence thanks to its immense oil and gas wealth and the unqualified support of its “big brother” Turkey.

In addition, Azerbaijan uses all the propaganda weapons at its disposal. The Aliyev regime has become adept at courting political influence in the west through what has been dubbed “caviar diplomacy”. Events such as the Formula 1 Grand Prix also function as high-profile projections of soft power, effectively “sportwashing” Azerbajan’s corruption and human rights record.

A statement of solidarity with Nagorno Karabakh signed by more than 100 UK academics on September 26 singled out the UK’s close relationship with Azerbaijan and the Aliyev regime as providing “a useful veneer of ‘respectability’ to the laundering of funds and history”.

Azeri impunity

Experts in international law have described the forced exodus of Armenians from their homes as a “war crime”. And former UN independent expert Alfred de Zayas has called for recent events to be investigated by the International Criminal Court.

But since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Azerbaijan has become an essential source for western energy. The country now seems to have a protected status as what EU commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, calls a “crucial energy partner”.

The question of sanctions against Azerbaijan has been raised in the EU parliament and expressions of concern have been made by the Council of Europe and the US government. But any concrete action from the west is thought unlikely.

While Armenians were fleeing their homes, an advertisement from the UK’s Department for Business and Trade in The Telegraph of September 29 enthused about the 450 UK companies already doing business in Azerbaijan. It noted that the UK is the country’s largest foreign investor. On the same day, the government announced it would give one million pounds to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) as a response to “events” in Nagorno Karabakh.

The international spotlight now has understandably shifted to the plight of 120,000 refugees. But the focus on the humanitarian crisis risks overlooking the ethnic cleansing carried out by Azerbaijan and the web of complicity that enabled it.

The fate of Nagorno-Karabakh offers us a glimpse into the casualties of the so-called “rules-based order”, where economic and geopolitical interests and whitewashing campaigns converge to a point where ethnic cleansing is of little note and apparently no consequence.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.


The Conversation




Azerbaijan's capture of Nagorno-Karabakh opens up challenges for India in the South Caucasus

As India refigures its foreign policy to a region now changed by Armenia’s defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, it almost certainly will have to seek out other, more stable avenues for its infrastructure ties given the potential of the INSTC project

Maj Gen Jagatbir SinghOctober 06, 2023   FIRSTPOST.IN

(File) Ethnic Armenians gather in hope to leave Nagorno-Karabakh region for Armenia in the center of Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh on 25 September, 2023. AP

    Wile the latest round of the conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, the long-disputed Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, seems to have been over within hours of it having started ending with the Armenian population leaving their homeland, the reverberations will continue to resound. They had earlier faced a humanitarian catastrophe with the blocking of the Lachin Corridor.

    The quick end can be attributed to a large degree by the unwillingness of Russia to get involved as it seems totally preoccupied by its commitments in Ukraine. However, the next fault line that seems to be emerging is Nakchivan, an enclave of Azerbaijan between Iran, Armenia and Turkey. Azerbaijan is demanding that Yerevan agree to the establishment of a corridor through Armenian territory that would connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan.

    The South Caucasus region which lies between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea comprising of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan has been the region which has been the crossroads of the Persian, Ottoman and Tsarist empires as also the intersection between the Christianity and Islam.


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    This land connects Asia to Eurasia apart from its significant natural resources. The conflict and emerging outcomes have both global and regional implications. Countries such as Russia, Iran, Turkey and Israel also have deep interests in this region, but it is also significant as far as India is concerned.

    India’s broad engagement in the region

    India does not have a publicly articulated policy for the South Caucasus — unlike “Neighbourhood First”, “Act East” or “Central Asia Connect”. However, since establishing diplomatic relations in 1992, India’s ties with Armenia have steadily grown. India has a Friendship and Cooperation Treaty with Armenia which was signed in 1995 further, the signing of a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement in 2019 has resulted in increased cooperation in trade, investment, defence and culture. Though, India’s provision of military assistance to Armenia has strained its relationship with Azerbaijan, Armenia extends its unequivocal support to India on Kashmir issue whereas Azerbaijan not only opposes but also promotes Pakistan’s narrative.

    In the case of Azerbaijan, ONGC/OVL has made investments in an oilfield project in Azerbaijan and GAIL is exploring the possibilities of cooperation in LNG. Azerbaijan also falls on the International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC) route, connecting India with Russia through Central Asia. It can also connect India with Turkey and beyond through the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars passenger and freight rail link.

    The conflict is essentially a conflict between two international principles viz., the principle of territorial integrity advocated by Azerbaijan and the principle of the right to self-determination invoked by Nagorno-Karabakh and supported by Armenia. When it comes to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, though India had talked of a mediated settlement between the two sides, However, it supported Armenia through arms sales and by condemning Azerbaijan’s aggression in the region. This was not without reason as Azerbaijan’s long-time association with Pakistan had turned the conflict into one of the world’s more obscure proxy wars.

    Lately, India’s has enhanced its strategic partnership with Greece which was viewed as a direct challenge to Azerbaijan as Armenia is a traditional ally of Russia and Greece and strain in relations between Turkey and Greece over Cyprus dominate their relationship though both are part of NATO. The recent visit of the prime minister to Greece was part of a broader strategy to diversify its partnerships in the region. India’s strengthening ties with Armenia and Greece are aimed at countering the alliance formed by Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan by no longer relying solely on its traditional allies like Russia and Iran, instead seeking new alliances with countries that share its interests, such as Greece and Armenia.

    India’s strategic approach of steadily building ties with Armenia, Greece and Iran reflect India’s increasing strategic interests in the Mediterranean region, which holds significant importance for its energy security due to its abundant oil and gas resources. Additionally, India aims to enhance its trade and investment relations with this region. This also serves as countering China’s expanding influence in the region.

    India’s strengthening ties with Armenia and Greece have caused concern for Turkey, Azerbaijan and Pakistan, who have been working together to counter India’s influence in the Middle East and Central Asia

    Region is crucial for India’s trade corridor

    The South Caucasus region has also become key for India’s ambitions to build a transportation corridor linking it to Europe through the Iranian plateau, the International North-South Transportation Corridor, or INSTC.

    As regards the INSTC, India needs a rail link to go from North Western Iran across the Southern Caucasus to either Russia or the Black Sea. In this regard, India (and Iran) have two options: one via Armenia’s Southern Syunik Province, and the other via the Caspian coast through Azerbaijan.

    A key advantage of the INSTC is that it effectively outflanks Pakistan while accessing overland routes to Europe and Central Asia otherwise blocked. It also results in a closer relationship with Iran thereby countering Iran’s relationship with China and their Belt Road Initiative in the region.

    In January 2023, at the Voice of the South Virtual Summit, Armenia’s Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan mentioned that Armenia is interested in “advancing cooperation within the framework of North-South connectivity, as well as the Persian Gulf-Black Sea international transport corridor,” adding that “Armenia considers India’s potential and prospective role for these projects as quite significant.”

    In April 2023, Armenia hosted the first trilateral meeting with Indian and Iranian officials, to facilitate a Black Sea-Persian Gulf trade route that would allow Indian goods to be exported to the West through Georgian ports

    Yet the developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict threaten the viability of the Zangezur including Turkey and Pakistan as well as Ankara’s expansionist pan-Turkic ambitions. corridor, an important corridor linking Azerbaijan to its Enclave, Nakhchivan. Recent comments by President Ilham Aliyev, of Azerbaijan, as well as Turkish President Erdogan’s speech at the UNGA, now suggest that the territorial viability of this corridor might be in question. Iran seems to have taken the threat to Syunik seriously enough to both reiterate Armenia’s control over the province which is internationally recognized and strengthen its troops in its northwestern border in response to the recent fighting.

    Irrespective of whether conflict actually breaks out over the corridor, the fact remains that building a railway through a region that has the potential for conflict between Iran and Turkey, two of the largest militaries in the region, does not bode well for political stability in the long term.

    Defence relationship

    India’s support for Armenia shifted gears in 2022 with the provision of $250 million worth of arms and ammunition. The deal included significant export orders of Pinaka Multi-Barrel Rocket Launchers (MBRL), anti-tank missiles, rockets and ammunition to Armenia. In 2020, India also got a $43 million order to supply four Swathi weapon-locating radars to Armenia.

    It was reported that this was the first time India has decided to export the Pinaka system to another country. Azerbaijan’s use of drones was a key reason why Armenia wanted the Pinaka system, since its “shoot and scoot” capability enables it to escape counter-battery fire.

    India feels it can benefit from being an arms supplier to Armenia, filling a gap left by Russia’s strategic downsizing in the Caucasus due to its commitment in Ukraine.

    In October 2022, Armenia’s Minister of Defence Suren Papikyan’s visited India and met the Defence Minister Rajnath Singh during the Defence Expo 2022.

    In May this year, Armenia announced it was posting a military attaché to its embassy in New Delhi, tasked with deepening bilateral military cooperation. On 26 July Azerbaijan, summoned the Indian Ambassador and lodged a protest about India’s defence ties with Armenia saying that arming Armenia “at a time when Azerbaijan is negotiating a peace treaty with Armenia, the supply of deadly weapons by India opens the way to the militarization of Armenia and aggravates the situation, hindering the establishment of sustainable peace and security in the South Caucasus region.” The irony is that Baku continues to arm itself with Turkish and Israeli weapons for offensive purposes, but protests when Armenia takes a similar step to defend its borders.

    Iran has played a crucial role. While Armenia is unable to purchase Iranian weapons due to fears of US and Western reactions, Tehran is facilitating the transit of weapons from India to Armenia.

    On 23 September Armenia appointed a new Ambassador to India despite the ongoing chaos in Nagorno-Karabakh. The ambassador’s credentials, as both an Iran expert and as a regional diplomat in the South Caucasus, suggests the particular direction that Armenia wants to take bilateral relations.

    An analysis from the Observer Research Foundation said; “India has overtly positioned itself on Armenia’s side in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and has consequently opted to resist Azerbaijan and its backers including Turkey and Pakistan as well as Ankara’s expansionist pan-Turkic ambitions.”

    Pakistan support for Azerbaijan

    While Pakistan has been siding with Azerbaijan since the outbreak of the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s, India entered the picture as an arms provider to Armenia only after Yerevan’s defeat in the Second Karabakh War in 2020 with both now supplying arms to the principal combatants.

    Pakistani support for Azerbaijan is intertwined with Islamabad’s close strategic relationship with Turkey, Baku’s primary patron. The Pakistani government was second after Turkey in recognising Azerbaijan’s independence following the Soviet collapse in 1991 and Islamabad has never acknowledged Armenia’s independence.

    The Pakistani and Azerbaijani militaries have reportedly been conducting joint exercises since 2016 and maintain extensive strategic security contacts. According to some unconfirmed reports, Pakistani military advisers reportedly participated in the Second Karabakh War, providing tactical advice. Some observers also believe Islamabad may sell the JF-17 fighter jets to Azerbaijan. There are also reports that Pakistan may soon join Azerbaijan as a partner in a Turkish-led effort to develop a new-generation stealth fighter, dubbed Kaan.

    Pakistan’s involvement is helping cement an Ankara-Baku-Islamabad alliance, informally dubbed the “Three Brothers”. The three countries all supposed democracies are predominantly Islamic. The fact that all three are engaged in territorial and ethnic conflicts also acts as a binding agent, encouraging them to assist each other strategically and diplomatically.

    By supporting Azerbaijan militarily and diplomatically Pakistan has played a decisive role in stymying India’s policies in the South Caucasus. The strategy has its drawbacks as Pakistan is now linked with a country that is being condemned internationally due to its aggression.

    Conclusion

    While it seems difficult for India to publicly endorse Nagorno-Karabakh’s right for self-determination in view of the possible repercussions it can have for India as Pakistan may twist the support by making erroneous connections with Kashmir. India has done little to indicate support for Armenia, or even condemnation for Azerbaijan’s actions with the exception of the meeting of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar with the Foreign Minister of Armenia, Ararat Mirzoyan in the UN General Assembly.

    As India refigures its foreign policy to a region now changed by Armenia’s defeat in Nagorno-Karabakh, it almost certainly will have to seek out other, more stable avenues for its infrastructure ties given the potential of the INSTC project. It is not as if India lacks alternative options and maybe the IMEC could be a viable option. The world now needs to focus on the Zangezur corridor and Nakhchivan the two-time bombs that are now likely to get activated.

    The author is a retired Major General of the Indian Army. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.


    Opinion | Distraction of the Ukrainian War

     Has Enabled Azerbaijan Achieving a Brutal

     Outcome


    Written By: Maj Gen Jagatbir Singh
    News18.com
    OCTOBER 03, 2023, 
    New Delhi, India

    Refugees from the Nagorno-Karabakh region ride in a truck upon their arrival at the border village of Kornidzor, Armenia. (Image: Reuters)

    While the focus of the West continues to remain on Ukraine, there is a bigger long-term failure here, in their inability to prevent the violence and get the Armenians and Azerbaijanis to agree on an equitable resolution to this bitterly contested conflict

    The third war over Nagorno-Karabakh, the long-disputed Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan, ended almost as soon as it began. The Azerbaijani ‘anti-terror operations’ began on the afternoon of September 19 with artillery and drones and within 24 hours, the Karabakh Armenians, a population that has been pushed to the brink of starvation by a months-long economic blockade, capitulated, leaving Azerbaijan in effective control of the territory.

    In scenes reminiscent of the Balkans in the 1990s, images of convoys of cars filling the mountain road from Karabakh to Armenia carrying thousands of ethnic Armenians leaving their homeland with as much as they can carry are flooding cyberspace. A region that has witnessed many such upheavals over the years faces yet another round of de facto ethnic cleansing.

    While the focus of the West continues to remain on Ukraine, there is a bigger long-term failure here, in their inability to prevent the violence and get the Armenians and Azerbaijanis to agree on an equitable resolution to this bitterly contested conflict.

    For the local population, the pendulum has swung since the collapse of the Soviet Union from euphoria, siege, victory, defeat and this outcome marks a bitter end and the complete destruction of a project that began in 1988 when the Armenians of Karabakh first tried to split away from Soviet Azerbaijan. The present loss of this territory and the consequent eviction of its people with centuries-old Armenian history and heritage is no doubt a brutal outcome.

    The Azerbaijanis have called for the dissolution of all political structures in the territory — the local Presidency, Parliament, and elected Mayor — and are not offering any kind of political autonomy. In contrast, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan told the Karabakh Armenians that an earlier offer of status had “gone to hell” and what was left on the table were as yet undefined “educational rights, cultural rights, religious rights, and municipal electoral rights.”

    Under those terms, some older people might choose to stay in Nagorno-Karabakh, and thousands of Azerbaijanis who lived there up until 1991 might return. But little or nothing will remain of all the local institutions built there over three decades.

    Although the enclave had in theory been under the protection of Russian peacekeepers, Russian guarantees ended up being worthless. Russia has instead brokered a deal whereby the local population agreed to a full disarmament of their own “defence forces,” numbering several thousand men and to begin talks over their full “reintegration” into Azerbaijan. It has intervened to broker a ceasefire, the price for which is that Russia gets to keep its peacekeeping force on the ground and thereby a foothold in Azerbaijan; and to push Western mediators — the EU and US — further to the margins.

    CROSS ROADS OF HISTORY & GEOGRAPHY

    The modern maps of the South Caucasus were drawn between 1918 and 1921, during and after World War I. Then, Armenians and Azerbaijanis fought over the disputed territories of Karabakh, Nakhchivan, and Zangezur, and Turkish and Russian armies marched in and out. In 1923, the Soviet Union established the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast—home to a 95 per cent ethnically Armenian population within the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Nagorno-Karabakh’s regional legislature passed a resolution in 1988 declaring its intention to join the Republic of Armenia, despite its official location within Azerbaijan.

    The South Caucasus region which lies between the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea comprises Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan apart from Southern Russia. This region has been the crossroads of the Persian, Ottoman and Tsarist Empires as also the intersection between Christianity and Islam. Armenia is mainly Christian, with 97 per cent of the population belonging to the Armenian Apostolic faith, one of the oldest Christian churches founded in the first century CE. Azerbaijan is 96 per cent Muslim, with 65 per cent of the people adhering to Shia Islam and the rest to the Sunni faith. Four-fifths of Georgia is Orthodox Christian.

    During the Soviet era, the roughly 1,700-square-mile region of Nagorno-Karabakh, whose population has been predominantly Armenian, was an autonomous Oblast of the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. After the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, it was internationally recognised as part of the Republic of Azerbaijan, which completely surrounded it. However, fighting erupted between Azerbaijan and local Armenian forces supported by Russia. Internationally sponsored negotiations tried to balance Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and its viability as a state with the aspirations of the Karabakh Armenians.

    Back in 1992, when the first war expanded to full-scale fighting, the Foreign Ministers of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe met in Helsinki and called for a conference to be held in Minsk to resolve the conflict. It was to be attended by all parties, including “elected representatives of Nagorno-Karabakh and others”—in other words, both Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijanis. But in the end, the conference never happened.

    The security organisation’s mediation was supposed to be based on the principles of the Helsinki Accords, the 1975 agreement between the West and the Soviet Union that formally established territorial integrity, self-determination, and the non-use of force as essential to preserving European peace. In practice, none of these principles were honoured. In fact, international commitment to this conflict was always under-resourced because the South Caucasus was considered too marginal.

    In 1994, Russia brokered a ceasefire, and for the next 25 years or so, a stalemate was held in which forces backed by Armenia and Russia effectively controlled the territory. After 1998, the Karabakh Armenians were no longer represented in the talks, as the then President of Armenia, Robert Kocharyan, was a Karabakh Armenian who said he could negotiate on behalf of his people. Diplomacy was reduced to secret talks between Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders.

    In 2017, the Karabakh Armenians, encouraged by Armenian nationalists in the region and the Armenian diaspora, formally renamed their region Artsakh, an Armenian name dating back to ancient times. The implication was that Azerbaijan should give up on not just Nagorno-Karabakh but also surrounding regions under Armenian control.

    Azerbaijan also showed little interest in substantial negotiations focusing instead on reconquest. For more than thirty years, no Azerbaijani leader negotiated directly with the Karabakh Armenians or put down any formal proposals for their future within Azerbaijan. Western mediators came up with peace formulas but were never able to offer the “boots on the ground” to enforce them. All this gave Russia the strongest leverage, and at the end of the 2020 war, it duly became the only outside power to intervene directly and put boots on the ground in the form of peacekeepers.

    In 2020, however, the momentum in the conflict, which seemed to have been frozen, shifted decidedly toward Azerbaijan, which won a clear-cut military victory over Armenia during a short but consequential war over the territory which is widely remembered in military circles for the devastating role played by the Turkish Bayraktar drones against the Armenian tanks. That outcome heightened the latent tensions among the countries in the region at a time when Russia, which has traditionally been the most important outside actor in the conflict, was distracted by its commitment in Ukraine.

    UNUSUAL ALLIANCES AT PLAY

    The long-running conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh has created partnerships in the South Caucasus that cut across religious, ethnic, and geopolitical lines in surprising ways. Iran, which is ruled by Shiite clerics, has provided an economic lifeline to Christian-majority Armenia, whose primary backer has for long been Russia. Meanwhile, Israel and Sunni-majority Turkey have formed a strategic alliance with predominantly Shiite Azerbaijan. And the two Shiite-majority countries in the mix — Iran and Azerbaijan — remain locked in a bitter, decades-long dispute over territory and identity.

    As Israel’s ties to Azerbaijan deepened, since 2016, Azerbaijan has received nearly 70 per cent of its arms imports from Israel, which in turn purchases 40 per cent of its oil from Baku. Iran became concerned that Israel is turning Azerbaijan into its proxy and using it as a launchpad for operations against it including the 2018 theft of information regarding its nuclear archive.

    In recent years, the growing proximity of Israel and the Persian Gulf Arab monarchies has also been of concern to it. The Iranians now fear that a similar dynamic is taking shape between Israel and two countries with predominantly Turkic populations, Turkey and Azerbaijan. The perceived threat of being sandwiched between an Israeli-Gulf Arab bloc to the South and an Israeli-Turkic bloc to the North, combined with domestic unrest in Iran, led to Iranian support for the Armenians. They also feared the instigation of separatism among the Iranian Azeri population.

    FALLOUTS OF THE WAR OF 2020

    The War of 2020 led to 7,000 deaths in just six weeks of fighting. It also re-shifted the ethnic balance in the region. On one hand, by recapturing the area of Azerbaijan surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh, which had been devastated and occupied by Armenian forces for two and a half decades, Baku’s victory allowed hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees to return to their homes. For the remaining 12,000 Karabakh Armenians, the situation was ever more precarious. The three-mile Lachin Corridor — their only supply route to Armenia — a slender and vulnerable lifeline was entirely dependent on the small Russian peacekeeping force, and by extension, Russia’s relations with Azerbaijan to keep the road open.

    Once the war in Ukraine began in February 2022, Russia was distracted and its priorities in the Caucasus shifted. Azerbaijan, Russia’s main land route to the South, became a more important partner than Armenia, its traditional Christian ally in the region. This resulted in Azerbaijan sealing off the Lachin Corridor in December last year.

    Having effectively lost control of Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan started saying publicly that Armenia renounced its territorial claims on the region. Instead, the formula he adopted in talks with Azerbaijan facilitated by the EU was that the issue was now “the rights and security” of the Karabakh Armenians. In turn, President Aliyev frequently used the words “territorial integrity” and used the war in Ukraine as cover. Western officials told him that the territory would return to Azerbaijani jurisdiction but that patience was needed. As recently as mid-September, he received calls from the US and other Western officials warning him against resorting to military force.

    Domestic logic also dictated Aliyev’s actions. For two decades, he has been the leader of an authoritarian state. Hence why should he agree to Western demands for a model of conflict resolution that compels him to offer autonomy to a national minority community, weakening his hold on power?

    Moreover, analysts feel that Aliyev believes that Turkey and Russia, not the West, are the only powers he needs to take seriously. In the present case, both Turkey and Russia see the utility of limiting Western engagement in the South Caucasus, a region where they have traditionally wielded influence.

    Turkey, Aliyev felt, would support his effort to take full control of Nagorno-Karabakh, Russia would not prevent it, and the West, with very little leverage in the region, would be a bystander.

    FLURRY OF DIPLOMATIC ACTIVITY

    In a flurry of diplomacy in May 2023, the US, EU, and Russia all hosted peace talks. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted four days of talks with the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan and said they made steps toward normalisation and peace. Shortly after, European Council President Charles Michel mediated discussions in Brussels between Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, describing them as “productive” talks.

    Then, in late May, Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted a trilateral meeting with the two leaders to discuss the reopening of transportation links between Armenia and Azerbaijan, though no agreement was reached. After three days of US-held talks on Nagorno-Karabakh in late June, Blinken applauded “further progress” toward a peace agreement and said both sides showed a willingness to negotiate seriously.

    On September 14, a senior Biden administration official said, “The United States will not countenance any action or effort—short-term or long-term—to ethnically cleanse or commit other atrocities against the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.” Five days later, Azerbaijan launched its military operation. On September 21 at the UN, the German Foreign Minister said, “The displacement and forced exodus of ethnic Armenians from Karabakh are not acceptable,” while the US Ambassador called for an international mission on the ground.

    But the fight for the rights of Karabakh Armenians seems to be over before it began. Presently it is difficult to imagine an outcome that would protect their historic legacy and assure the survival of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. The cost of their defeat will reverberate for decades to come.

    NAKHCHIVAN: THE NEXT BOILING POINT

    A potential outcome of Azerbaijan’s victory is the future of Nakchivan, an enclave of Azerbaijan between Iran, Armenia, and Turkey. Azerbaijan is demanding that Yerevan agree to the establishment of a corridor through Armenian territory that would connect Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan. President Ilham Aliyev called this passage “a historical necessity . . . [that] would happen whether Armenia wants it or not.”

    Such a corridor would cut Iran’s access to Armenia as the two countries would no longer share a border. Iran, which views Armenia as a critical link with Eurasia, had threatened to use military force against any changes to the internationally recognised borders of the region. During a meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last July, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned against creating a barrier between Iran and Armenia by blocking what “has been a communication route for thousands of years.”

    Even though most of its provisions lie in tatters, the trilateral Ceasefire brokered by Russia in November 2020, and co-signed by Aliyev, Pashinyan, and President Vladimir Putin has as one of its provisions, Border Guards from Russia’s FSB to protect the transport corridor across Armenia to Nakhchivan, a region being referred to as Western Azerbaijan.

    This is where the next battleground lies. It is felt by some that the UN backing should put this under a broader international umbrella but Azerbaijan and Russia may resist thisThe crisis in the South Caucasus has the potential to spiral out of control and also draw Iran and Russia closer.

    CONCLUSION

    The Karabakh conflict has been central to the modern national identities of both the Armenians and the Azerbaijanis. Both sides still use language that excludes the other: for example, the Armenians call Karabakh by the old Armenian name Artsakh, implying a region without Azerbaijanis, and the Azerbaijanis call the Armenian-populated town of Stepanakert by an Azerbaijani name, Khankendi.

    The return to violence is also a reminder of the failure to establish a European security and rights framework for the South Caucasus. Western diplomats have for decades backed an approach to Nagorno-Karabakh built on international legal principles and modelled on resolving the Balkan conflicts. In theory, such a settlement would involve international peacekeepers, war crimes tribunals, political autonomy, and the eventual peaceful coexistence of Karabakh Armenians and Azerbaijanis. Russian commitments in Ukraine have also limited its capacity to project power in its neighbourhood.

    To quote Lenin, “Having gone a full circle we are back to square one”. Once again violence, not diplomacy, has played a role in determining key outcomes. Unfortunately, the importance of history and geography in geopolitics cannot be ignored and small players take full advantage of settling lingering disputes when major players are distracted. The pulsating ripples of the Ukrainian conflict have undoubtedly exposed yet another faultline.

    The author is an Army veteran. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect News18’s views.