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Monday, November 04, 2024

PAKISTAN

SITUATIONER: LEFT GASPING FOR AIR


Lahore was once known for its gardens. 
Now, its claim to fame is topping the pollution charts.
Published November 4, 2024 
DAWN


• Hazardous environment forcing Lahoris to alter their lifestyles

• Experts say dearth of accurate data means govt actions fail to adequately address issue


A MORNING walk in Model Town Park is part of Hassan Ali’s daily routine. It includes three laps of the park’s 2.5km jogging track.

His body has become acc­ustomed to this, and he never used to “face any difficulty” during the walk.

Then, toxic smog started enveloping Lahore, and air pollution started rising beyond hazardous levels.

Now, his doctor has advised him to cut short his walk, a suggestion Mr Ali is only too happy to follow.






He is one of Lahore’s more than 13 million citizens forced to alter their lifestyles due to smog, which has become a recurring issue in the city.

As winter approaches, the air quality starts deteriorating as denser cold air traps pollutants from vehicle and factory emissions.

On Saturday, the air pollution in the city soared, with the Air Quality Index (AQI) briefly reaching an “unprecedented” level of over 1,000.

The reading of 1,067 between 8am and 9am was 71.1 times above the World Health Organisation standard.


AQI levels in Lahore for past two days, as on November 4. — iqair.com


‘Life-altering’ impact

The smog has reportedly affected millions, leaving them with symptoms such as cough, difficulties in breathing, eye irritation and headaches.

Arif Hussain, a human rights activist, says two of his children, aged between seven and 10, have developed skin conditions and are on medication to cope with the adverse effects of smog.

Similar complaints were made by Sufiyan Asif, a teenager, who says he and his younger brother have developed sore throat and eye irritation due to smog.

His family is staying indoors and keeping windows and doors shut to avoid exposure to smog.

Experts have raised alarm over the deteriorating air quality in the city, which they claim leads to life-altering problems like depression and impacts the growth of the children.

Renowned physician Dr Javed Akram agrees that smog is resulting in serious health issues among children and the elderly.

Choking in the city of gardens

Lahore was once known for its gardens. Now, its claim to fame is topping the pollution charts.

The causes of this are well-known and amply documented. The mushroom growth of housing societies is eating up green spaces in and around the city; industries and brick kilns whose emissions violate every environmental protection law; stubble burning and increasing numbers of vehicles on the roads, all contribute to the toxic air.

But the tragedy is that accurate data on these phenomena is found nowhere.

The government claims similar issues in neighbouring Indian Punjab also contribute to the choking air quality.


Punjab Environment Protection and Climate Change Department (EPCCD) Secretary Raja Jahangir Anwar says there are 4.5m motorcycles, 1.3m cars and trucks in Lahore.

In addition, there are 6,800 factories and 1,200 brick kilns operating in and around the city, and farmers are burning stubble in the adjoining Kasur, Sheikhupura, Nankana and Gujranwala districts, he tells Dawn, blaming their emissions for the hazardous air quality.

Successive governments have tried everything to counter smog — from spraying water on roads to artificial rain and, most recently, imposing a ‘green lockdown’.

However, in the absence of accurate data, these actions are based more on hunches than any goal-oriented strategy.

The first step towards fixing this issue is accurately reporting the air quality.

A report by IQAir in January stated that Lahore has 15 air quality monitors at various sites across the city, and only one installed at the US Consulate is government-owned.

Mr Anwar, the EPCCD secretary, claims his department has three functional air quality monitors in the city.

The Environment Protection Department publishes daily air quality reports on its website. This report, based on the data from the previous day, is of little use for people checking air quality to plan future activities.

The data about the total number of vehicles and their emission is also skewed.

The Punjab State of the Environment Report 2023 identifies transport as a major source of air pollution in Punjab.

This observation is based on a study conducted by the UN Food & Agricultural Organization in 2019. It concluded that the sector is responsible for 43pc of air pollution in Punjab.

The five-year-old study had put the number of registered vehicles in Punjab at 14.5m, which increased to 21m in 2021.

However, the exact number of vehicles plying on the city roads is still not known.

Further, the methodology to calculate vehicular emission ignores some related factors such as combustion, control technology, fuel type, operating conditions, equipment age, and maintenance.

‘Inadequate’ measures

Pakistan Air Quality Experts, a collective of leading environmentalists, researchers, doctors and scientists, says the government’s measures like ‘green lockdown’ are inadequate, and won’t have any considerable impact on air pollution.

Dawar Hameed Butt, a researcher with the group, tells Dawn the government banned rickshaws and heavy vehicles in some areas, but they are still operating in other localities. “How would it bring about any relief?”

He points out that due to gas shortages, people in and around Lahore use firewood for cooking and heating, while factories in northern Lahore burn tyres, raising PM2.5 levels.

He suggests closing down those factories for tangible relief.

The government is calling farmers “anti-state” for burning stubble but it hasn’t provided them with any technology to get rid of their residue, Mr Butt says.

He also suggests community-led efforts, including local clean-air initiatives, tree-plantation drives and youth awareness campaigns to combat smog.

Published in Dawn, November 4th, 2024





Comment

‘Ecological apocalypse’ — Lahoris are breathless and angry as smog casts heavy veil over the city

There is just no winning for Lahore, unless it's topping the charts for the worst air quality EVER.



Images Staff
04 Nov, 2024

Lahore is number one! — at having the worst air quality in the world. Jokes aside, the smog situation in Pakistan’s second-largest city is not only deteriorating the air quality but also severely impacting people’s health.

For days, Lahore’s 14 million people have been enveloped by smog — a mix of fog and pollutants caused by low-grade diesel fumes, smoke from seasonal agricultural burning, and winter cooling. Primary schools have been shut down for a week, travelling is dangerous, and the very act of breathing is hazardous.

According to Dawn, the air quality index (AQI), which measures a range of pollutants, exceeded 1,000 on Saturday — well above the level of 300 which is considered “dangerous” — according to data from IQAir.

The Punjab government also recorded peaks of over 1,000 on Sunday, which it considered “unprecedented”.

Photographer and content creator Mohammad Wasif flew his drone over Lahore one morning, and the outcome was bleak, to say the least — the entire city was submerged in a thick blanket of grey haze, the bright red of the Badshahi Mosque barely visible.

“How can we breathe in such air quality?” Wasif questioned in his caption.


RIP Lungs

Needless to say, Lahoris aren’t too happy about the situation. Content creator Nadir Shah posted a video about returning to Lahore and breathing it all in. The video cuts to him splayed out on the ground.

Abdul Rehman Kashmiri pretends to beat up a Lahori after they say the iconic “Lahore Lahore ayy” (Lahore is Lahore) despite the terrible air quality.


Many X (formerly Twitter) users highlighted the adverse impact of the smog on their health, with one very eloquently stating that the people of Lahore were “so cooked”. (For those who aren’t chronically online, this means they’re doomed).











“Sore throat, burning eyes and stifling air — Lahore’s air quality has plummeted to some of the worst levels globally. The thick, smoky haze hangs over the city, making it feel increasingly unlivable.”






Another netizen highlighted that her lingering headache was returning, “Hello, Lahore smog. Just when we hoped we might get a little more time without you.” Meanwhile, another X user reached Lahore from Islamabad and “immediately felt an assault of gross smoke” that was more severe than the usual smog.











Worsening health conditions caused by smog aren’t new for Lahoris. A tweet from 2021 read, “Once again a rich vein of pristine phlegm at the back of my throat heralds the arrival of smog season.”






Even former cricketer Mohammad Hafeez chimed in about the plethora of health concerns faced by the city, like viral infections, smog and dengue fever.





What’s the govt doing?

Several people criticised the Maryam Nawaz-led Punjab government for failing to take action against the smog, while others called for tangible action to combat the issue. One user questioned why the government could not take any “practical step[s] like limiting vehicle usage at certain times, making air purifier zones and cloud seeding or artificial rain?”











Activist Ammar Ali Jan called the situation an “ecological apocalypse”, adding that cities in Pakistan only worked for “land mafias, car/oil companies and corrupt bureaucrats”.

“Only those who can afford air-purifiers can survive. Privatisation of clean air! Absolutely criminal and insane,” he wrote.






Another netizen questioned what Maryam and the deputy commissioner of Lahore were doing, highlighting that it was increasingly difficult for citizens to breathe.

“Citizens are looking at you. When will you take any action to lessen the intensity?”






People called on the provincial government to do more than “lip service, dashboards and TV advertisements”, while others called for an immediate “smart lockdown” to save people from the “biohazard” caused by the smog.











A non-Lahori, in town to attend a family wedding, described how horrendous it was to deal with smog for the first time — “everyone has a bad throat, eyes are burning and breathing problem”.

They maintained that the government did not have a plan to combat the issue, “while Lahoris’ average lifespan is shortening with each year”.





Keep calm and meme on

However, as with any calamity in Pakistan, internet users were on point with their meme game, not letting the lack of fresh air in Lahore stop them in any way.

One user highlighted that after the smog, Lahore would make a good zombie apocalypse movie, while another questioned if something could “suck the smog out of Lahore” because they didn’t feel very “Lahore Lahore ayy”.











Another X user said smog in Karachi was cleared by the sea breeze and smog in Islamabad by the rain, while Lahoris were left at a loss, using an iconic gif of racer Lewis Hamilton looking immensely confused to depict what we’re sure all Lahoris feel.





Precautions, precautions, precautions

The smog has reportedly affected millions, leaving them with symptoms such as cough, difficulties in breathing, eye irritation and headaches. Experts have raised alarm over the deteriorating air quality in the city, which they claim leads to life-altering problems like depression and impacts the growth of the children.

It, therefore, becomes extremely important for the people living in and around Lahore to take adequate precautionary measures.

It’s important for those living in smoggy conditions to wear a proper N95 mask that covers their mouth and nose when stepping outside. You should avoid smoking altogether — please don’t contribute more to the smog and worsen your lungs — and instead opt for hot drinks and lots of water. Wash your hands and face after you return indoors, and limit excessive time outdoors.

Be a good citizen and try to carpool or use public transport to travel, avoid burning wood and trash — obviously — and seal the vents of your home with masking tape or place moist towels under doors and windows. Lastly, if you can afford to, use air purifiers in your homes.

Stay safe, and don’t forget — smog or no smog, Lahore Lahore ayy.

Saturday, November 16, 2024

Stricter lockdown in big cities as Punjab declares smog emergency

Zulqernain Tahir 
November 16, 2024
DAWN

A street is shrouded in smog amid air pollution, during a morning in Multan on November 15. — Reuters

LAHORE: Hundreds of people offer Namaz-i-Istisqa (prayers for rain) for some respite from the smog afflicting the Punjab province, at Badshahi Mosque on Friday. A spokesperson for the provincial environment department attributed this year’s severe pollution to a lack of rain in September and October.—PPI


• Schools closed for another 10 days across the province
• Marriyum says arrangements made in hospitals to treat patients
• Govt holds ‘successful’ cloud seeding trial in Jhelum, Gujar Khan



LAHORE: The Punjab government has declared an emergency in Lahore and Multan, where a “complete lockdown” will be imposed from Fridays to Sundays due to the intensity of smog.

Dense smog, caused by toxic pollutants, has engulfed several cities in Punjab over the past few weeks, with Lahore and Multan being the worst hit. The AQI reading in Multan has already crossed 2,000 twice, setting a new record for air pollution.

“We are declaring a health emergency in Lahore and Multan,” provincial minister Marriyum Aurangzeb told a press conference on Friday.

The minister said a complete lockdown will be enforced on Fridays, Saturdays, and Sundays in both cities.

Construction activities in Lahore and Multan have also been suspended for 10 days, and vehicles carrying construction materials will be stopped at the entry points of the cities.

Ms Aurangzeb said the closure of schools has been extended while colleges and universities will hold online classes in Lahore and Multan.

Private and government offices would operate with 50 per cent of staff working from home, while restaurants would operate till 4pm with takeaway services allowed till 8pm.

“We are not imposing restrictions on weddings during this smog season but are preparing for next year,” she said, adding that citizens have been advised to avoid outdoor events.

Late, on Friday, the provincial Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) notified these restrictions.

It said the smog situation is “likely to prevail for a few weeks”; hence, there was a need to “reduce the number of vehicles on roads and restrict construction activities”.

Schools across Punjab, which are already closed, would remain shut till Nov 24, according to the EPA notification.

There will be a complete ban on the entry of heavy transport vehicles in Lahore and Multan.

The vehicles carrying fuel, medicines and food supplies; buses with official certification; ambulances; fire brigades; and vehicles of Rescue 1122 and police will be exempt from the ban.

The lockdown restrictions will not apply to pharmacies, medical facilities, petrol pumps, oil depots, tandoors, flour mills, dairy shops, call centres, postal services and utility companies.

Health crisis

The minister admitted that smog has resulted in a sharp uptick in the number of patients with respiratory illnesses.

The timing of the outpatient department (OPD) has been extended till 8pm in hospitals where essential medicines for respiratory illnesses have also been supplied, the minister said.

Ambulances have been equipped with breathing apparatus and hospital staff leaves have been cancelled. Citizens are advised to wear masks and avoid unnecessary travel on motorcycles.

According to the EPA notification, special counters for smog-related diseases will be established in all government and private hospitals.

Rescue 1122 will “prioritise the calls related to smog diseases” while the health department will ensure an adequate supply of medicines to treat respiratory and other smog-related diseases

10-year policy

While calling smog a “health crisis”, she said the pollution is now affecting other districts in Punjab.

The minister claimed that a 10-year policy had been formulated and government departments have been given specific targets to combat this crisis.

“Twelve AQI calculators have been installed in Lahore, and 50 more will be deployed across Punjab this year,” she added.

The minister lamented Lahore has only 3pc green cover compared to the required 36pc. “The government plans to launch a citywide green plantation drive.”

She said smog would not disappear in six months or a year, and the government is using both short- and long-term strategies to address the issue.

The minister, once again, reiterated that smog was cross-border and urged Pakistan and India jointly “address this environmental crisis, which concerns lives and health”.

The minister said she would like to brief the Lahore High Court on the policy to curb smog, which, she said, was caused by “transport, agriculture, energy, our habits, our behaviour and our actions towards nature”.

She said a number of measures have already been taken to curb smog.

For the first time, the agriculture department has provided 1,000 super seeders to farmers to dispose of their stubble instead of burning it.

Around 800 brick kilns have been demolished, and efforts to expand Lahore’s forest cover are ongoing, she added.

Three vehicle fitness certification stations have been established at Kala Shah Kaku and Thokar Niaz Baig, and smoke detectors have been provided to traffic police to identify vehicles with high emissions.

Cloud seeding

On Friday, the Punjab government also held a successful trial of artificial rain using local technology.

“The cloud seeding experiment conducted in Jhelum, Chakwal, Talagang, and Gujar Khan resulted in rainfall in Jhelum and Gujar Khan on Friday,” the Meteorological Department confirmed.

The experiment was conducted at 2pm, and “within hours, it [rained] in Jhelum and Gujar Khan”.

“There is also a strong likelihood of rainfall in Lahore after this experiment. The artificial rainfall will significantly help reduce smog,” the Met Department said.

The experiment was done in collaboration with Army Aviation, Punjab EPA and Suparco, as per the officials.Ms Aurangzeb and CM Sharif have congratulated all institutions and scientific experts involved in the cloud seeding experiment.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024


Breathless Punjab

DAWN
Editorial 
Published November 16, 2024 

PUNJAB’s smog crisis has effectively spiralled out of control, with air quality readings shattering all past records: Multan’s AQI surpassed 2,000 recently and Lahore’s is consistently exceeding the 1,100 mark. While the two cities have now been put under a nine-day lockdown, such high levels of air pollution have taken a terrible toll on the population. Nearly 2m citizens sought medical attention for respiratory ailments in just 30 days. Hospitals are reporting patients of asthma, conjunctivitis and heart disease in overwhelming numbers. While the provincial government is running helter-skelter closing schools, banning recreational activities and demolishing non-compliant brick kilns, these steps amount to little more than crisis management. The distribution of super-seeders and installation of emission control systems, though welcome, cannot mask the absence of deep reform. It is not with seasonal firefighting that Punjab can deal with this recurrent problem. It must address primary pollution sources: a rickety transport infrastructure, industrial emissions and urban sprawl.

Across the border, Delhi faces a similar crisis, with schools shutting down and flights disrupted. In Pakistan, the Punjab information minister says that while 70pc of Lahore’s smog is generated locally, around 30pc wafts in from India. This makes bilateral cooperation essential. In addition, the Lahore High Court’s call for a decade-long policy framework merits attention. With 70-80pc of environmental pollution stemming from transport emissions, particularly substandard fuel, any meaningful solution must prioritise public transport and stricter emission standards. The government’s plan to introduce electric buses by June 2025 is promising but insufficient. The path forward requires painful but necessary reforms: relocating industries outside urban centres, enforcing Euro-V fuel standards, expanding green coverage beyond the current 3pc in Lahore, and creating air quality monitoring networks. While these may seem economically burdensome, the cost pales in comparison to the rapidly rising healthcare costs and the undeniable loss of productivity. For citizens caught between unaffordable air purifiers and deteriorating health, the government must provide relief through subsidised protective gear, such as N95 masks, and expanded healthcare access. However, the public too must recognise their role in this crisis. It must adopt greener lifestyles and reduce personal emissions. Ultimately, tackling smog requires unwavering political will, regional diplomacy, public participation, and a rethink of our urban development.

Published in Dawn, November 16th, 2024

Pakistan’s policies hazy as it fights smog


By AFP
November 14, 2024


Pakistan's Punjab region is bearing the brunt of the country's struggles with record-breaking smog - Copyright AFP Arif ALI

Muhammed SOHAIL ABBAS with Shrouq TARIQ in Islamabad

From banning tuk-tuks and barbecues to demolishing old brick kilns, Pakistan’s government is pushing a series of measures to fight record-breaking smog.

But environmental activists and experts warn that the efforts hardly begin to fix a problem that leaves the country choking every winter, with Punjab, a region of almost 130 million people bordering India, bearing the brunt of it.

A mix of low-grade fuel emissions from factories and vehicles, exacerbated by agricultural stubble burning, blanket the city each winter, trapped by cooler temperatures and slow-moving winds.

The UN food agency FAO pinpoints transport as the main source of air pollutant emissions, followed by industry and agriculture.

Punjab minister Marriyum Aurangzeb, who has declared a “war against smog”, has deployed police to fine farmers who use the slash-and-burn technique.

Officials are also targeting companies that fail to comply with orders to modernise their infrastructure.

“It is a good starting point”, the Pakistan Air Quality Experts (PAQx) group, a coalition of 27 professionals spanning public health, environmental science, law, and economics, wrote in a letter to the government.

But more urgent action was necessary against the worst polluters, the group said, suggesting immediate curbs on heavy vehicles circulating at certain hours or a nation-wide shutdown of all brick kilns, old and new.

Ahmad Rafay Alam, one of Pakistan’s leading environment lawyers, said the government has “not understood the problem completely”.

“It should (improve the quality of) petrol, move to renewables, improve the industry, otherwise, we’re just showing something for the sake of showing it,” he said.



– Cost hurdle –



More than 24 million vehicles ply the streets in Punjab, a province served by a weak public transportation infrastructure.

“We need to upgrade the vehicle fleet,” Alam said.

But many Pakistanis are also unable to afford more modern and less-polluting options in a country where the World Bank reports 40 percent of the population lives below the poverty line.

In the brick-making industry, one of Pakistan’s biggest sectors, employers and employees have shown incomprehension at the government’s actions.

Officials have shut down 700 of the country’s 25,000 brick kilns because they have not switched to more energy-efficient versions touted to reduce air particle output.

Employer Sajid Ali Shah told AFP that the government “replaced the old technology that we worked with for over 50 years with a new one, but many do not even know how to use the new technology”.

Worker Muhammad Imran, 40, said the old kilns “used to cost us almost $1000, the new one is almost $6000”.

A similar picture emerged in the farming sector.

Officials want the agriculture sector to switch to fertilisers instead of the slash-and-burn technique, but farmers say that is too costly.

“We plough, burn and then water (the fields) for good results. There’s no other way,” Fida Hussain, a 35-year-old farmer told AFP, after he finished burning his rice fields.

Deforestation also continues to gather pace to make way for new bridges and roads.

Every year, Pakistan loses almost 27,000 hectares (270 square kilometres) of natural forest area, according to the World Bank.



– Children paying price –



With the smog far from lifting, doctors are reporting a health emergency.

Air pollution can trigger strokes, heart disease, lung cancer and other respiratory diseases, according to the World Health Organisation (WHO).

More than 35,000 patients have been reported in the five major public hospitals of Lahore during the past week, Pakistan’s official news agency APP reported.

Children are often hardest hit, with UNICEF noting that “prior to these record-breaking levels of air pollution, about 12 percent of deaths in children under five in Pakistan were due to air pollution”.

To limit the damage, the provincial government shut down schools and public spaces in Punjab’s major cities till 17 November, disrupting the learning of almost 16 million children.

“It’s unfortunate that the children are paying the price when it should be industry, energy production and automobile use that should be upgraded or shut down,” Alam said.

But Aurangzeb warned: “Even if we enforce our smog mitigation plan… it will not bring an overnight change”.


Primary schools empty as smog persists in Indian capital


By AFP
November 15, 2024


Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area, home to more than 30 million people, consistently tops world rankings for air pollution in winter - Copyright AFP Arun SANKAR

Residents in India’s capital New Delhi again woke under a blanket of choking smog on Friday, a day after authorities closed primary schools and imposed measures aimed at alleviating the annual crisis.

Delhi and the surrounding metropolitan area, home to more than 30 million people, consistently tops world rankings for air pollution in winter.

The smog is blamed for thousands of premature deaths each year and is an annual source of misery for residents, with various piecemeal government initiatives failing to measurably address the problem.

All primary schools were shut by government order on Thursday night with young pupils — particularly vulnerable to smog-related ailments due to their age — instead moving to online lessons.

“I have an eight-year-old kid and he has been suffering from a cough the past couple of days,” Delhi resident Satraj, who did not give his surname, told AFP on the streets of the capital.

“The government did the right thing by shutting down schools.”

Thursday’s edict also banned construction work, ordered drivers of older diesel-powered vehicles to stay off the streets and directed water trucks to spray roads in a bid to clear dust particles from the air.

Delhi’s air quality nonetheless deteriorated to “hazardous” levels for the fourth consecutive day this week, according to monitoring firm IQAir.

Levels of PM2.5 pollutants — dangerous cancer-causing microparticles that enter the bloodstream through the lungs — were recorded more than 26 times above the World Health Organization’s recommended daily maximum shortly after dawn on Friday.

– Thousands of fires –

Critics have consistently said that authorities have fallen short in their duty to tackle a crisis that blights the city each year.

“We haven’t responded to the emergency with the same intensity with which we are facing this crisis,” Sunil Dahiya of New Delhi-based advocacy group Envirocatalysts told AFP.

The acrid smog over New Delhi each year is primarily blamed on stubble burning by farmers in nearby states to clear their fields for ploughing.

A report by broadcaster NDTV on Friday said that more than 7,000 individual farm fires had been recorded in Punjab state, to the capital’s north.

Emissions from industry and numerous coal-fired power stations ringing the city, along with vehicle exhaust and the burning of household waste, also play a part.

“Since we haven’t yet carried out any systemic long-term changes, like the way we commute, generate power, or manage our waste, even the curtailed emissions will be high,” Dahiya said.

Cooler temperatures and slow-moving winds worsen the situation by trapping deadly pollutants each winter.

A study in The Lancet medical journal attributed 1.67 million premature deaths to air pollution in the world’s most populous country in 2019.


Saturday, November 30, 2024






Lahore’s smog: the sun may be out but a sustainable solution remains out of sight

As Punjab eases restrictions, the lingering health crisis and calls for real environmental action expose a battle far from over.
Published November 29, 2024
  PRISM/DAWN

Atif Manzoor, 45, the owner of a blue pottery business in Multan, had every reason to feel cheerful last week when the sun finally came out. For a good three weeks, the city of Sufi shrines had been shrouded in an envelope of thick smog.

For over three weeks, he said, business had been terrible, with “several orders cancelled” and advance payments refunded. He also had to bear the transport costs he had already paid after the government imposed restrictions on heavy traffic and closed the motorways due to poor visibility.

Thick smog had blanketed cities across Punjab province, home to 127 million people, since the last week of October. Multan, with a population of 2.2 million, recorded an air quality index (AQI) above 2,000, surpassing Lahore, the provincial capital, where the AQI exceeded 1,000.

While Lahore’s AQI has improved, it still fluctuates between 250 (very unhealthy) and 350 (hazardous) on the Swiss company’s scale, keeping it among the top cities in the world with the poorest air quality. As this article went into publication, it was 477, or “very unhealthy.”

Terming the AQI levels in Punjab, in particular Lahore and Multan, “unprecedented”, Punjab’s Environment Secretary, Raja Jahangir Anwar, blamed the “lax construction regulations, poor fuel quality, and allowing old smoke-emitting vehicles plying on the roads, residue burning of rice crops to prepare the fields for wheat sowing” as some of the factors contributing to the smog in winter when the air near the ground becomes colder and drier.

Manzoor was not alone in his predicament. Smog had disrupted everyone’s life in the province, including students, office workers, and those who owned or worked in or owned smoke-emitting businesses like kilns, restaurants, construction, factories, or transport, after authorities put restrictions on them.

Even farmers in rural settings were not spared. Hasan Khan, 60, a farmer from Kasur, said that the lack of sunlight, poor air quality, transport delays preventing labourers from reaching farms, and low visibility were all hindering farm work and stunting crop growth.

“The smog hampered plant growth by blocking sunlight and slowing photosynthesis, and since we do flood irrigation, the fields stay drenched longer, causing crop stress, and the trees began shedding their leaves due to poor air quality,” he said.


A screenshot of the IQAir airquality index for Thursday, November 28, 2024, showing the top 10 most polluted cities. Credit: IQAir


Divine intervention or blueskying


After weeks of relentless smog, residents of Punjab had been calling for artificial rain, similar to what was done last year. This process involves releasing chemicals like silver iodide from airplanes to induce rainfall.

However, Anwar explained that artificial rain requires specific weather conditions, including the right humidity levels, cloud formations, and wind patterns. “We only carry out cloud seeding when there is at least a 50 per cent chance of precipitation,” he said.

On November 15, favourable weather conditions allowed for cloud seeding over several cities and towns in Punjab’s Potohar Plateau, leading to natural rainfall in Islamabad and surrounding areas. The forecast also predicted that this would trigger rain in Lahore.

On November 23, Lahore received its first winter rain, which helped clear the thick, toxic smog that had been causing eye irritation and throat discomfort, revealing the sun and a clear blue sky. However, some believe the downpour was the result of the collective rain prayer, Namaz-i-Istisqa, held at mosques across the province, seeking divine intervention.

But cloud seeding has its critics. Dr Ghulam Rasul, adviser at the China-Pakistan Joint Research Centre and former head of the Pakistan Meteorological Department, cautioned that cloud seeding might reduce smog temporarily, but it was not a sustainable solution. Instead, it could create dry conditions that worsen fog and smog. He also warned that an overdose could trigger hailstorms or heavy rainfall.

Once the smog thinned and the air quality improved, the government eased its restrictions, allowing shops and restaurants (with barbecues if smoke is controlled) to remain open till 8pm and 10pm, respectively; schools and colleges have also opened, and the ban placed on construction work, brick kiln operations, and heavy transport vehicles (carrying passengers, fuels, medicines, and foods), including ambulances, rescue, fire brigades, prison, and police vehicles, has also been lifted. In addition, the government has installed 30 air quality monitors around Lahore and other cities of the province.

While the air may have cleared, health issues left in its wake are expected to persist, according to medical practitioners. Over the past 30 days, the official score of people seeking medical treatment for respiratory problems in the smog-affected districts of the province reached over 1.8 million people. In Lahore, the state-owned news agency, the Associated Press of Pakistan, reported 5,000 cases of asthma.

“Frankly, this figure seems rather underreported,” said Dr Ashraf Nizami, president of the Pakistan Medical Association’s Lahore chapter.

“This is just the beginning,” warned Dr Salman Kazmi, an internist in Lahore. “Expect more cases of respiratory infections and heart diseases ahead,” he said.

Unicef had also warned that 1.1 million children under five in the province were at risk due to air pollution. “Young children are more vulnerable because of smaller lungs, weaker immunity, and faster breathing,” the agency stated.


While the government has put several measures in place, a long-term, measurable plan is needed, say experts. Credit: Hasan Khan


Ineffective band-aid solutions

Although the government took several measures to manage the smog, few were impressed. Climate governance expert Imran Khalid, blaming the “environmental misgovernance for degradation of an already poor air quality across Pakistan,” found the anti-smog plan a “hodgepodge of general policy measures” with no long-term measurable plan.

He argued that the plan only targets seasonal smog instead of taking a year-round “regional, collective approach” to fighting air pollution across the entire Indus-Gangetic plains, not just in Lahore or Multan.

“I will take this seriously when I see a complete action plan in one place, preceded by a diagnostic of the causes and followed by a prioritisation of actions with a timeline for implementation monitored by a committee with representation of civil society,” said Dr. Anjum Altaf, an educationist specialising in several fields along with environmental sciences. “Till such time, it is just words!” he added.

Khalid said plans and policies can only succeed if they are evidence-based, inclusive, bottom-up, and “and implemented by well-trained authorities, supported by political will and resources, flexible in response to challenges, and focused on the health of the people.”

Others argue that the slow response to the decade-long smog crisis, despite a clear understanding of its causes, reflects a matter of misplaced priorities.

“It’s all about priority,” said Aarish Sardar, a design educator, curator, and writer based in Lahore. “Many years ago, when the government wanted to nip the dengue epidemic, it was able to,” he said.

“Mosquitoes were eliminated once they reached officials’ residences,” said farmer Khan, agreeing that when there is political will, remarkable changes can occur.



Header image: Farmer Hasan Khan took photos of his farm in Kasur during the smog. Credit: Hasan Khan

This article was originally published in Inter Press Service and has been reproduced here with permission.


Zofeen T. Ebrahim is an independent journalist based in Karachi.
She tweets at @zofeen28.



Clean-up needed

 November 29, 2024


A POPULAR saying I have been hearing since childhood is: “Safaai nisf iman hai” (cleanliness is half the faith). Today, the ‘Queen of the East’, as Karachi was once dubbed by Sir Charles Napier, has lost its faith. It needs a good scrub.

When it comes to rankings, the city certainly flies high or trails far behind, whichever way you prefer to put it. Not too long ago, the Economist’s Intelligence Unit evaluated 173 cities in the world in terms of their livability. Environment and infrastructure were two factors among others that were taken into account. Karachi ranked 169th.

In terms of pollution by solid waste, the city has the worst record in the country. Solid waste makes the city unliveable and also has a negative aesthetic dimension. Karachi generates 16,500 tons of solid waste every day, but barely two-thirds of it is collected to be sent to the handful of landfill sites on the outskirts of the city. The remaining waste adorns street corners and open plots and can also be seen in the middle of the road. The Sindh Solid Waste Management Board set up in 2014 has failed to do its job. Its poor performance is on public display.

Not enough has been written about the impact of urban pollution on human heal­­th. Even the Pakistan Medical Asso­ciation seems to have resigned itself to people learning to live with urban waste in their vicinity. So focused is the medical profession on the curative approach that most of its practitioners fail to mention that a cleaner city would mean fewer illnesses and less out-of-pocket expenditure for patients.


They should also sort out the waste they generate in their homes.

One point of view is that the solid waste problem is a class issue. In his South Asian Idea (a web-based periodical) Anjum Altaf writes about the future of the city in South Asia. He does not hold out much hope for our cities: “…each South Asian city has split into two — the rich enclaves and the poor slums. At the same time, the discovery that disease is spread by germs not polluted air has shifted the focus from collective sanitation reforms to protection of the individual through immunisation. The rich have thus also isolated themselves from the diseases of the poor. As a result, there is no powerful lobby of influential citizens behind urban reform that benefits the entire city.”

He asks: “Is the South Asian city doom­­ed to a schizophrenic and split future?”

However, Karachi does not exactly fit this description. The metropolis is certainly divided into localities inhabited by people from different income groups. But these areas are not totally detached from one another. In fact, the more affluent among them are often ringed by squatters’ settlements that supply menial labour to serve rich households. Hence our society may be schizophrenic but not the city.

Defence Housing Authority, the most affluent and ostentatious of all residential areas, also has its share of solid waste heaps and dilapidated roads. The residents’ problems are no different from those of their kin in Nazimabad and Gulshan in this respect. The problems of the rich, however, are much smaller in size and complexity. Moreover, money solves a number of them. Still, the problems exist, testifying to the parity that marks Pakistanis’ temperament vis-à-vis ‘rubbish’.

From where do we begin Operation Clean-up? While the removal of primary waste from public collection points and transporting the solid waste to the dump is obviously the duty of the municipal authorities, the people also have a role to play. Our disregard for cleanliness in public places knows no class barriers. I have seen the richest of rich lower the window of their air-conditioned Pajero and hurl a bagful of kit­­­ch­­en waste towards a garbage can on the road corner. Needless to say, the aim was not perfect.

On their part, the people should help by not littering public places. They should also sort out the waste they generate in their homes into three categories: organic kitchen waste for composting, paper and glass for recycling, and plastic waste that is given a decent burial. The local government should take over at this point, and provide practical collection points from where the waste, sorted out, is carried to the correct destination.

Once I was told by my host in a Southeast Asian country that children taught the virtues of cleanliness in school learn fast. This practice teaches the child the dignity of labour as well. The only school in Karachi I know that does this is The Garage School that celebrated its silver jubilee last week. Its premises are spick and span as the students sweep their classrooms themselves. Other schools should be doing the same to create a vested interest in cleanliness in those who spend their time there.

www.zubeida-mustafa.com

Published in Dawn, November 29th, 2024

Tuesday, November 12, 2024

Toxic smog in Pakistan is so bad you can see it from space
 
By Helen Regan and Sophia Saifi
CNN
 Mon November 11, 2024

A cyclist rides along a street engulfed in thick smog, in Lahore on November 10, 2024. Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images
CNN —

Record-breaking levels of thick, toxic smog that have shrouded eastern Pakistan and northern India since last month can be seen in striking satellite imagery.

A huge cloud of gray smog blankets Pakistan’s Punjab province and stretches out east into India, over the capital New Delhi and beyond, satellite imagery from NASA Worldview shows.

The pollution has forced authorities in Pakistan to close schools and public spaces as the acrid smog threatens the health of tens of millions of people.

Images from the Pakistani cities of Lahore and Multan this weekend show the dark haze engulfing streets and blocking buildings from view.

Pollution in the region ramps up each winter, when an ominous yellow haze blankets the skies due to a combination of farmers burning agricultural waste, coal-fired power plants, traffic and windless days. Air quality worsens in the winter because colder and drier air traps pollution, rather than lifting it away, as warm air does when it rises.



Satellite imagery from NASA Worldview shows heavy smog over Pakistan’s Punjab province and parts of northwest India on November 10, 2024, compared to the same region on August 31, 2024. NASA Worldview/CNN


Though major South Asian cities suffer with poisonous smog each year, officials in Pakistan’s second biggest city Lahore have characterized this season as unprecedented.

On Monday, the city’s air quality index was above 1,200, a level considered “hazardous,” according to IQAir, which tracks global air quality. A reading above 300 is considered hazardous to a person’s health.

The air quality index in parts of Punjab, Pakistan’s most populous province of 127 million people, has exceeded 1,000 multiple times in the past week, according to IQAir.

In the Punjab city of Multan on Monday, the reading for the tiniest and most dangerous pollutant, PM2.5, was more than 110 times higher than safe levels set by the World Health Organization.

When inhaled, PM2.5 travels deep into lung tissue where it can enter the bloodstream. It comes from sources like the combustion of fossil fuels, dust storms and wildfires, and has been linked to asthmaheart and lung disease, cancer, and other respiratory illnesses, as well as cognitive impairment in children.

Hospitals and clinics in Pakistan have become inundated with patients suffering from the effects of pollution, with Punjab health officials saying more than 30,000 people have been treated for respiratory ailments in smog-hit districts, according to the Associated Press.

A vendor carries a basket of radishes across a railway track engulfed in smog in Lahore on November 8, 2024. Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images

Patients are treated at a hospital due to poor air quality in Lahore, Pakistan, on November 8, 2024 Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images

Traders and customers at a wholesale fruit market engulfed in smog in Lahore on November 8, 2024. Arif Ali/AFP/Getty Images

Pakistan’s Environmental Protection Agency said Sunday there was “an unprecedented rise in the number of patients with lung and respiratory diseases, allergies, eye and throat irritation” in the districts of Faisalabad, Multan and Gujranwala, where average air quality levels were “alarmingly hazardous.”

Schools and government offices had already been ordered to close until November 17, including in the provincial capital Lahore. On Friday, Punjab authorities shuttered all parks, playgrounds, museums, zoos and historical sites in 18 districts for 10 days.

New restrictions on Monday extended the ban to all outdoor activities including outdoor sports events, exhibitions, festivals, and outdoor dining at restaurants, in four districts including Lahore. Markets, shops and malls are to close by 8 p.m. local time, with exceptions for pharmacies, gas stations and essential food and medical stores, according to the EPA.

The fresh restrictions are designed to keep people at home and avoid unnecessary travel that could put their health at risk, Sajid Bashir, EPA spokesperson told AP.

Of particular concern are children who are among the most vulnerable because their bodies, organs and immune systems are still not fully developed.

The UN children’s agency, UNICEF, warned that more than 11 million children under the age of 5 are exposed to smog in the worst-affected districts.

“As smog continues to persist in Punjab province, I am extremely concerned about the well-being of young children who are forced to breathe polluted, toxic air,” UNICEF’s representative in Pakistan Abdullah Fadil said. “Young children are most affected by air pollution because they have smaller lungs and lack the immunities that come with age.”

Khuram Gondal, Save the Children Pakistan’s country director said as well as disrupting their education, “air pollution and hotter temperatures are leading to life-threatening dangers for children, including difficulty breathing and higher risk of infectious diseases.”


‘We have no other option.’ Women take dip in holy river filled with toxic foam


He urged the government to “urgently address air pollution” and find long-term solutions to the annual problem.

Last week, officials in Punjab drafted a letter to the Indian government to open a dialogue on the issue.

Punjabi Secretary for Environment and Climate Change Raja Jahangir Anwar told CNN there was a need for “climate diplomacy, as a regional and global issue.”

Millions of people die each year from air pollution-related health issues. Air pollution from fossil fuels is killing 5.1 million people worldwide every year, according to a study published in the BMJ in November, 2023. Meanwhile, WHO says 6.7 million people die annually from the combined effects of ambient and household air pollution.

The climate crisis will only make pollution worse as extreme heat becomes more severe and frequent, scientists say. Climate change is altering weather patterns, leading to changes in wind and rainfall, which also affect the dispersion of pollutants.

A report published earlier this year found that the world consumed record amounts of oil, coal and gas last year, pushing planet-heating carbon pollution to a new high.


UN warns that toxic smog in Pakistan’s Punjab province is endangering children

By The Associated Press

ISLAMABAD (AP) — The U.N. children’s agency on Monday warned that the health of 11 million children in Pakistan’s eastern Punjab province is in danger because of air pollution that experts say has become a fifth season in recent years.

Toxic smog has shrouded Pakistan’s cultural capital of Lahore and 17 other districts in Punjab since last month. Health officials say more than 40,000 people have been treated for respiratory ailments.


UNICEF’s representative in Pakistan, Abdullah Fadil, in a statement urged the government to make urgent and greater efforts to reduce air pollution for the 11 million affected children under the age of 5 and others.

“Prior to these record-breaking levels of air pollution, about 12% of deaths in children under 5 in Pakistan were due to air pollution,” Fadil said. “The impact of this year’s extraordinary smog will take time to assess, but we know that doubling and tripling the amount of pollution in the air will have devastating effects, particularly on children and pregnant women.”

Pakistan has shut schools until Nov. 17 in parts of Punjab as part of measures aimed at protecting children’s health. Authorities on Friday ordered the closure of all parks and museums for 10 days, and they have been urging people to avoid unnecessary travel.

According to the Environmental Protection Department in Punjab, Multan remained the most polluted city on Monday, with air quality index readings of about 800. Anything over 300 is considered hazardous to health.

Though the government has ordered the mandatory wearing of face masks, that has been widely disregarded. The government has also said it was looking into methods to induce artificial rainfall to combat the pollution.

The Associated Press

Tuesday, September 26, 2023

Phillippines urges residents to mask up as volcanic smog blankets capital

Resident told to mask up in affected areas as schools forced to close

The Manila skyline is seen shrouded in smog
(AFP via Getty Images)

Volcanic smog has blanketed the Philippine capital Manila and nearby provinces, with residents urged to stay indoors and schools forced to close.

Taal, a small but restive volcano near the capital, spewed above-average sulfur dioxide and volcanic smog on Friday, prompting authorities to issue a health warning and urge residents in affected areas to mask up.


The state volcanology and seismology institute said it observed upwelling of hot volcanic fluids in the Taal volcano‘s crater lake, resulting in the emission of volcanic gases.


The health alert sits at level 1 on a five-level scale, denoting a “slight increase in volcanic earthquake, and steam or gas activity”.


An airplane flies on a sky shrouded with smog in Taguig city, Philippines
(EPA)

Located in a scenic lake in Batangas province near Manila, the 311-metre (1,020-foot) Taal is among the most active of 24 volcanoes in the Philippines.

In January 2020, it spewed a column of ash and steam 9.32 miles high, forcing more than 100,000 people to evacuate and dozens of flight cancellations as heavy ash fell as far away as Manila.

“We have reports of respiratory illnesses in Batangas province due to intoxication from the volcanic smog,” Randy Dela Paz, operations section chief at the civil defence’s southern Manila office, told DWPM radio.


The Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology director Teresito Bacolcol told The Manila Times the current smog should not be a cause for residents to panic as the alert level is low, but said people in affected areas to be vigilant and wear masks when they smell the smog.


Smog covers Metro Manila and nearby provinces
(EPA)

Volcanic smog, or vog, consists of fine droplets containing volcanic gas like sulfur that can cause irritation of the eyes, throat and respiratory tract.

Authorities suspended Friday classes in dozens of towns and cities in the Cavite, Laguna, and Batangas provinces adjacent to Taal volcano, and in five cities in the capital region.

The aviation authority on Friday told pilots to avoid flying close to the volcano‘s summit “as airborne ash and ballistic fragments from sudden explosions may pose hazards to aircrafts”.

The Philippines is in the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” where volcanic activity and earthquakes are common.

Taal Volcano’s smog blanket southwest Philippines province, with possibility of acid rain

Satellite detects large cloud of SO2 over and expanding west of Taal Lake, near volcano in Batanga province, Science Ministry says, advising people to limit their exposure to gas


Esra Tekin |22.09.2023 
Smoke rise from Taal volcano in Batangas, Philippines on July 05, 2021. 
( Dante Dennis Diosina Jr. - Anadolu Agency )

ISTANBUL

The sulfur dioxide level at the Philippines' Taal Volcano has increased, causing constant volcanic smog and the possibility of acid rain, the country's Science and Technology Ministry said on Friday.

“A total of 4,569 tons/day of volcanic sulfur dioxide or SO2 gas emission from the Taal Main Crater was also measured today, 21 September 2023,” said the ministry in a statement.

Satellite monitors detected a large cloud of SO2 over and expanding west of Taal Lake, which is near the volcano in the Philippines' Batanga province, the ministry said, advising people to limit their exposure to the gas and protect themselves.

Taal Volcano is currently on Alert Level 1, indicating an abnormal state, the statement said.

Acid rain may form when there is rainfall concurrent with the release of volcanic gases in regions where the plume spreads, which can harm crops and cause corrosion of metal roofs on homes and structures.

This status should not be interpreted as a cessation of unrest or the removal of the threat of eruptive activity, the statement said.

“As a reminder, vog consists of fine droplets containing volcanic gas such as SO2, which is acidic and can cause irritation of the eyes, throat, and respiratory tract with severities depending on the gas concentrations and durations of exposure,” it added.

Monday, February 10, 2025

WELCOME TO SMOGISTAN

This season has made it abundantly clear that smog will continue to get worse.


EOS/DAWN

Smog season is here to stay.

For four long months, from October to January, a heavy pall shrouds the hills and plains, from Peshawar in the north all the way down to Larkana in the south, choking the life and spirit out of millions of hapless souls. Social media is abuzz. News articles describe the air as “methane-laden.” A WhatsApp message from Lahore reads: “It’s like inhaling directly from a car exhaust.”

In terms of scope, we have utterly shattered all records. The Air Quality Index (AQI) level — a measure of the concentration of fine-grained particulate matter in the atmosphere — deems a value of 50 or less as “good” and 300 or more as “hazardous” to health. This season we have registered AQI levels in excess of 1,000 as a matter of routine. Hospital admittances have skyrocketed. Multan even jumped the 2,000 mark.

In the visuals, the affliction is apocalyptic. In November, drone footage of Lahore went viral, the once-renowned “City of Gardens” resembling a dark Hollywood dystopia, a setting right out of Blade Runner. International media reported that the smog over Punjab was viewable from space. The satellite images captured an unnatural alien white patch, like factory chemical discharge in water, a seething living presence.

Smog has become a global phenomenon over the last few years, pervading the world silently, affecting billions, but it is most concentrated here now — a narrow strip stretching from Dhaka in the east to Islamabad and Peshawar in the west, with the epicentre concentrated in Delhi and Lahore.

“The world has turned the corner on tobacco,” warned the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Director General, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, in 2018. “Now it must do the same for the ‘new tobacco’ — the toxic air that billions breathe every day…No one, rich or poor, can escape air pollution. It is a silent public health emergency.”

At our end, there is a flurry of activity, which is now all too predictable. There are prompt bans on burning crop stubble, fines on vehicles, mass school closures, work-from-home policies, and curbs on socialising. Think-tanks and NGOs are cycling through a crowded calendar of events, sessions and seminars on the topic.

Everyone has a statement ready. Our politicians tussle on social media. When Bilawal Bhutto shared AQI readings for various cities on X with a tongue-in-cheek invitation to Pakistanis to move to Karachi, PTI responded with the famed Marie Antoinette quote, “Let them eat cake.” Some users dragged up images of Karachi wrecked after rains.

The mainstream discourse is a litany of complaints, excuses and explanations. The official version tends to vary. Currently, as per Punjab information minister Azma Bokhari, “[T]he wind direction brings air from India into Pakistan, yet India does not seem to be taking this problem as seriously as it should.” Multiple policies and guidelines have been issued over the years but serious structural change still seems distant.


The air quality and pollution measurement scale | All diagrams and visualisations courtesy the writers


There is cacophonous noise and activity in these four months of smog, doom and gloom, recriminations aplenty, but things are very quick to die down when the skies clear. Wash, rinse and repeat. And every winter season the smog returns, more intense and more lethal. It has been almost a decade of this menace and we have yet to even get a sense of what confronts us.

What would a serious conversation on smog look like? In this piece, we try to ground the discourse in facts and data — the precious little that we have of it — to try to get a handle on this new normal.

KILLING US SOFTLY

The cold hard numbers on air pollution are eye-opening: the WHO reports that around 99 percent of the world’s population inhales polluted air, which exceeds their prescribed safety limits. Middle- and low-income countries are worst-hit.

A robust body of evidence now exists for the heavy toll air pollution exacts on our health, a wide spectrum with a multitude of respiratory problems, heart disease, stroke, asthma and cancer. Prenatal and early exposure has been linked to IQ loss in children. Air pollution is dangerous even at low concentrations. And it is unique compared to other killers — it can amplify the harmful effects of other pollutants and health risk factors.

The leading authority on this topic is the landmark ‘Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study’, which has been running for 30 plus years now, tracking 88 health risk factors in over 200 countries and territories. According to their latest edition, which presents results up to 2021, the global impact of disease stands at a staggering 2.88 billion disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) — where each DALY equates to a year of healthy life lost to disability or premature death.






Of this colossal tally, an estimated eight percent — some 230 million DALYs — are due to particulate matter air pollution. This count outpaces well-known killers such as smoking, high blood pressure, and birthing complications. It has now become official: air pollution is the world’s “leading contributor to the global disease burden.”

The University of Chicago Energy Policy Institute, the leading air pollution tracking unit in the world, estimates that air pollution now cuts lifespans globally by 2.3 years, surpassing cigarettes and tobacco, which clock in at 2.2 years. Air pollution kills more than HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria combined. It may even be worse than war.

We lack high quality data for Pakistan but, if the pollution problem were somehow magically fixed overnight, the average Karachiite would gain an estimated 2.6 years of life expectancy, Islamabad residents 4.6 years, and residents in Lahore 5.3 years.

With numbers like these, our current mainstream discourse on smog seems outright tame. Why is there no grand awakening? Where is the mass mobilisation, the national emergency?

“Air pollution is the greatest external threat to human health on the planet,” says Professor Michael Greenstone, renowned economist and director of the Energy Policy Institute, “and that is not widely recognised, or not recognised with the force and vigour that one might expect.”

There are several reasons for this. Unlike traditional health threats, such as smoke from cigarettes, lead in paints, or mercury in fish, it can be hard to connect the dots with air pollution. Particulate matter air pollution is largely invisible. It is hard to quantify. It is ubiquitous, it disperses rapidly. It is a slow and patient killer. The effect is disproportionate and the poor are hit hardest.

There is also the question of geography, of infrastructure and agency: air pollution can easily travel large distances, it does not care for borders, and it can be very difficult to police.

And there is no easy fix.






IT STARTS WITH DATA

The very first thing one notices in this conversation is that we seem to be flying blind. A decade of smog and we still do not have reliable air monitoring networks, dedicated research groups, or policy frameworks. Our mainstream discourse is reminiscent of a famous quip from US management theorist Edwards Deming: “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.”

The conversation is an ongoing struggle. What are the real numbers for health impact in Pakistan? What is the economic cost of air pollution? How does air pollution vary across our cities and larger regions? What are the different solutions open to us? How do these solutions compare with each other? Without solid data, we cannot answer the simplest of questions with any degree of confidence.

To give readers a flavour of what a data-driven exercise looks like, we pick apart a local air pollution dataset and tease out the insights buried within. We use publicly available air pollution data from US embassies and consulates. The US government has deployed high quality sensors at embassy locations worldwide to inform overseas citizens about air pollution conditions, and to assist local authorities and residents. To the best of our knowledge, this is the only publicly available, long-term, detailed air quality dataset for major Pakistani cities.

The embassy sensors log hourly particulate matter concentrations, specifically PM2.5 (ie particles 2.5 microns or less in diameter). An algorithm is used to convert these readings into AQI values that can help inform health-related decisions. The index is calculated based on data over a 3-to-12-hour period, depending on the variability of particulate concentration.

We examined data for Karachi, Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar — these are the only locations in Pakistan for which US sensor data is available. We specifically focused on data for the last three years (2022-2024).

This experiment has some very obvious limitations: the embassies only log PM2.5 readings and do not track other contaminants, such as coarse dust particles, ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide etc. The data is also highly localised to the embassy region and should not be considered representative of an entire city. Pollution levels can differ dramatically over large spaces. Moreover, we worked directly with AQI values. This is relatively quick and easy, but for rigour and accuracy, computations should be done on the PM concentration values.

However, the biggest challenge was the data itself. There were over 95,000 data points and over 10,000 missing values. There were periods in the dataset where entire days — even weeks — were missing from the record, ostensibly due to sensor malfunction or replacement. Likewise, there were over 2,000 invalid readings (zero values or abnormally low AQI readings). For our purposes, we interpolated missing values using a filtering technique for gaps which had 6 hours or less missing. Even then, significant gaps persist.

A team of three undergraduate students collaborated over some 80 hours to sanitise this data. This was a significant exercise. Most AQI reporting portals (such as aqicn.org) report results using the incomplete and defective data.

On the plus side, this effort makes a good starting point for a data-driven discussion. Numbers can help structure our thinking about pollution and smog in a way that simple visuals cannot. The results confirm our intuition in several instances. They also broadly agree with findings reported in the research literature from India. We also encounter some interesting insights, particularly for day-night cycles and rainfall.






A TALE OF FOUR CITIES


We start with visualisations of average daily AQI readings for the period spanning January 1, 2022 - November 30, 2024. We aim for a monthly breakdown. The different colours on the horizontal lines indicate the number of good, moderate, unhealthy and hazardous days, as per the standard AQI scale for every month. The light grey represents the amount of missing days in every month.

Some trends spring right off the charts: the smog season can be clearly discerned in the crimson-purple concentrations spanning October-February in all four cities. Air pollution builds up in the winter months, with colder temperatures resulting in atmospheric inversions that trap air near to the ground. Coal, wood and biomass fuel are used to heat homes and buildings, crop stubble is burnt in the fields. These combustion emissions, together with the lack of air circulation, allow pollutants to accumulate, giving rise to the phenomenon of winter smog. Lahore is the worst hit, followed by Peshawar. Karachi is better off, likely due to the coastal geography and the sea winds.

Smog season is also progressively getting worse and more intense with every season, in all cities except Karachi. There is also a common perception that the brunt of the smog season is borne in November and December. But January fares almost as bad as December in Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar. 2024 is the first year that Islamabad experienced significant smog. The results for January 2024 in Islamabad and Peshawar are a revelation — a dramatically worse January than the two preceding years. It remains to be seen what this January brings.

Some trends are less evident but equally disturbing: smog may be a seasonal four month phenomenon but elevated AQI levels are a year-long problem. Air pollution — unhealthy levels of it — is perennial. The green patches — the ‘good’ days — are concentrated in the summer and monsoon months and seem to be getting scarce with every year. But even here — in cities such as Lahore and Peshawar — red and purple patches (denoting ‘unhealthy’ and ‘very unhealthy’ days) are showing up in increasing numbers over the years.

There are no really healthy periods in our cities anymore — there is bad AQI and then there’s worse AQI.

FOLLOWING THE WIND

Wind patterns play a huge role in diffusing air pollution and dispersing it across great distances. Multiple studies have shown, for instance, that air pollution from Chinese factories contribute significantly to smog in US cities, traversing the Pacific Ocean in as little as six days.

We discern the effect of wind when we look at monthly AQI averages for all four cities over 13 months, November 1, 2023-November 30, 2024.

Lahore, Islamabad and Peshawar exhibit common patterns — strong evidence for wind currents at play — where AQI peaks over the December-February period, then dips in the summer (April) and monsoon months (August) and then climbs again September onwards. Levels in Lahore in particular ascend right into the stratosphere after October.

Things get interesting when we overlay Lahore AQI levels with those of New Delhi. The dips and the peaks synchronise almost perfectly. New Delhi lies across the border from Lahore, at a distance of 265 miles, and is often implicated in our discourse on smog. The two cities share a common geography, they are sister cities on the grand Indo-Gangetic plain, and one of the most densely populated regions in the world, along with cities such as Multan, Kolkata and Dhaka.

Scientists call this the ‘valley effect.’ The plain acts as a kind of low-lying bowl – it runs parallel to the Himalaya mountains. Pollutants get sucked in from multiple directions. Particulate matter from vehicles and industries, along with construction debris in the cities, mixes with dust blowing in from the Thar Desert and stubble and wood burning in winters. Cold air descends from the Himalayas, effectively trapping the polluted air near the ground, a deadly hazy cocktail, a layer of smog almost a kilometre in height.

On the other hand, in Karachi, pollution is easily dispersed due to winds from the sea. Karachi’s AQI levels closely resemble those of Mumbai, another coastal city, with significant dips into healthy territory over the monsoon period.


Farmers put crop stubble on fire in a field in Shahdara: the burning of crop stubble has been banned by the government in an attempt to curb the rise in smog | White Star


THE DAY NIGHT CYCLES

We find a similar pattern when we look at the day-night AQI cycles over a month, say November, 2024. If we average out the hourly changes in AQI for the month, we see that Lahore and New Delhi are again in good synchronicity: AQI levels peak in the early morning hours, likely when the weather is coldest (around 4-5am) and then again during morning rush hour (9-10 am).

The big dip is in the late afternoon, around 4-6pm. A 2021 research study of Indian cities attributes this fall to “higher PBLH allowing for vertical mixing and dilution of the surface pollutants.” PBLH refers to the height of the planet boundary layer, the lowest layer of the Earth’s atmosphere, home to most types of clouds and weather events. Air pollution concentrates in this layer. The height of this layer tends to vary (from a hundred meters to several kilometres), depending on the time of day and location, and therefore impacts the dispersal of air pollution upwards into the atmosphere.

Karachi and Mumbai again correspond in terms of dramatically lower levels than the other cities, a flat line for the most part, with a more pronounced dip in the case of Karachi.






RAIN TO THE RESCUE

When things get dreary, we look forward to a shower of rain to clear the skies. And the aftereffects of rain during smog is often very marked, with a clear change in visibility and the emergence of blue skies.

We investigate a few instances to see how the change manifests in AQI values. Results are mixed: for instance, on November 23-24, 2024, when it rained in Islamabad, AQI dropped significantly, as depicted in Figure X. The day-night peaks persist clearly, but the average AQI (the white line) drops one entire category from red to orange (from ‘unhealthy’ to ‘unhealthy for sensitive groups’). But it takes only about four to six days for the average to ascend to the older pre-rainfall levels. Again, this makes intuitive sense. The pollution has not stopped.

Moreover, this mitigating effect of rain may be limited to smog season. We investigated the case of monsoon rainfall in Lahore on August 1, 2024 — these were torrential rains that broke a 44-year record for the city — and we did not find a significant change reflecting in AQI levels.




DATA TO ACTION

These results above are preliminary and not suitable for policy recommendations — but hopefully they give a bit more substance to our intuitions about smog. We hope they also provide readers a snapshot of what kind of insights we may be able to derive if we had actual high quality, real-time data from multiple sources, ie a proper monitoring network. In advanced countries, real-time monitoring is the bedrock of national policy to combat air pollution and smog.

With a proper network of distributed sensors, we could understand and track actual sources of air pollution. We could undertake targeted interventions. As an example, China routinely halts cement production in regions when AQI levels cross a certain threshold, with significant success. China has also implemented numerous industrial relocation policies for pollution-intensive industries. Several European cities have used monitoring data to plan new roads and demarcate car-free zones.





Day-night data can be used to stagger office timings, reducing traffic congestion and transport emissions. Rainfall data can feed into cost-benefit analyses for very costly and controversial solutions like artificial rain. We can use AQI data to provision our hospitals accordingly. Data-backed ad campaigns can encourage behavioural change. Citizens around the world often use hourly readings to schedule outdoor activities, when the air quality is better.

Data can also give us deeper and more fundamental — and even illuminating — insights.


The average hourly changes in AQI during the month of November, 2024 in Islamabad, Lahore, New Delhi and Peshawar

For instance, when the Covid-19 pandemic hit in late 2019, Stanford University Professor Marshall Burke investigated the impact of the lockdown on air pollution levels in Wuhan, the epicentre of the pandemic and the first city to shut down. He used US embassy readings over a two month period — the same type of data we use here — and found dramatic declines in PM2.5 concentrations.

He then drew on the health research literature and calculated, using conservative estimates, that the lockdown likely saved the lives of 1,400 children and 51,700 elderly people across China. To put these numbers in context — the lockdown likely saved 20 times more lives than those lost to the Covid-19 virus.

This is a staggering result. We locked down the world and put our lives on hold for Covid-19. But air pollution is much more deadly, yet everything continues as business as usual.

Burke takes pains to emphasise that he does not advocate endless lockdown, but only to emphasise the startling contradiction: “…the often-hidden health consequences of the status quo… the substantial costs that our current way of doing things exacts on our health and livelihoods.”

The average hourly changes in AQI during the month of November, 2024 in Karachi and Mumbai

OSTRICHES AND OWLS

If there is ever to be a serious effort to combat smog and air pollution, monitoring would be the critical first step. It is impossible to come up with an informed and intelligent response without good data.

The absence of data at this point in time is a lapse that simply fails to compute: Pakistan is the fifth most populated country in the world, a bona fide nuclear power, the menace of smog has been building up in our biggest cities for almost a decade now, we have an official Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination — this list could go on and on.

Perhaps, this is the real tragedy here. We are faced with a life and death situation that necessitates a serious and sustained long-term strategy, but our institutions and policymakers are not capable of much beyond short-term band-aid solutions. A letter-to-the-editor in Dawn from last year dubs this the “famed ostrich approach” — let’s stick our heads in the sand and hope the problem goes away on its own.


The hourly AQI and daily average AQI in Islamabad from November 22-30, 2024. After November 23-24, when it rained in Islamabad, the AQI dropped significantly for a period of time

Our citizens have no clear pathways for activism. A few months ago, when Abid Omar, founder of the Pakistan Air Quality Initiative, sought out air pollution activists in Lahore for a collaborative art project to highlight the issue of smog, he was unable to find even a single one.


This season has made it abundantly clear that smog will continue to get worse. This crisis is, in a sense, also perhaps symbolic of our overall predicament as a country, with respect to our politics, our culture, our very identity as a nation. All have been severely tested in recent times. It is tempting to view smog as the physical embodiment of our darkest demons, the ones we ignore at our peril.

Unfortunately, smog season is here to stay.


Taha Ali is an associate professor at the NUST School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science in Islamabad. X: @agrammaton

Abeha Hussain, Noor Fatima and Rida Tayyab are second-year undergrad students at the NUST School of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science.

Umair Shahid is a concerned citizen residing in Islamabad. He is working on setting up a low-cost community monitoring network in Islamabad
He can be reached at umair.shahid@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, EOS, January 19th, 2025