Sheinbaum takes the helm of a disoriented Mexico after AMLO’s populist era
Claudia Sheinbaum has made history as Mexico’s first female president, stepping into a role shaped by her mentor, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), who founded the Morena party on a leftist platform in 2012. While her election in June marked a pivotal moment for gender equality in the country, the position comes with overwhelming challenges that her predecessor left unresolved. AMLO's ambitious social reforms and policies won him widespread popularity, but they also left the country facing major issues that Sheinbaum must now urgently address.
The 61-year-old climate scientist and former Mexico City mayor, set to take office on October 1, inherits a nation plagued by rampant violence, an economy showing signs of strain, and a controversial judicial reform that has shaken investor confidence. While AMLO leaves office with an 80% approval rating, his tenure was not without flaws. His approach to security, which often involved avoiding direct confrontation with Mexico’s powerful drug cartels, has left regions like Sinaloa and Chiapas in a state of ongoing conflict. With over 30,000 murders recorded annually, Sheinbaum’s task of restoring safety will be daunting. Even if her appointment of former Mexico City police chief Omar García Harfuch as Security Minister may indicate a reinforced focus on intelligence and investigation, the extent of the country's cartel problem demands a far more comprehensive solution.
Economically, Mexico has also been left in a precarious position. The country’s fiscal deficit has doubled to 6% of GDP, with Pemex, the state-owned oil giant, holding nearly $100bn in debt. AMLO's decision to pour resources into Pemex, coupled with his refusal to implement fiscal reforms or raise taxes, has narrowed Sheinbaum's room for manoeuvre. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reduced Mexico’s growth outlook to 2.2%, and the new president will face immense pressure to stabilise the economy while managing the burden of AMLO’s legacy, characterised by generous social benefits. Her government’s first budget, due in November, will be a critical moment for setting the tone of her economic policy.
One of the most controversial reforms Sheinbaum must deal with is the judicial overhaul pushed through by AMLO in his final months in office. This reform, which requires all judges to be elected by popular vote, has been widely criticised for undermining judicial independence and has contributed to the peso's significant decline since the election. Investors are waiting for Sheinbaum to clarify her stance on these thorny issues, and her approach will shape the country's economic future and international standing.
While Sheinbaum’s victory is a monumental event for Mexico, her presidency begins with high expectations and significant hurdles. As she steps out from AMLO’s cumbersome shadow, she must balance the promise of continuity with the need to address the deep-rooted problems left by her predecessor’s administration. Despite the pair being described as "politically close," observers point out stark differences in attitude between the reserved, US-educated academic and the outspoken populist leader who came to power in 2018, presiding over five turbulent years. Therefore, as the stage is set for a change of course, Sheinbaum's succession may look less seamless than many fear.
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