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Thursday, March 05, 2026

RAGOZIN: The unholy alliance between Ukraine’s far right and the Western defence industry

RAGOZIN: The unholy alliance between Ukraine’s far right and the Western defence industry
Battle-hardened commander Mykola “Makar” Zynkevich appears at a large event organised on the sides of the Munich Security Conference. / Snake Island Institute via Facebook
By Leonid Ragozin in Riga March 4, 2026

A look at Ukrainian units dealing with cutting-edge unmanned technology reveals an unholy alliance between far-right extremism and the Western defence industry. It came into the limelight during the latest Munich Security Conference, the world’s most prestigious gathering of global security practitioners and military industry bosses. 

Here is the backstory. At the end of May 2017, a group of far-right activists stormed Lviv region’s legislature and briefly detained its deputies inside the occupied building. They demanded amnesty for the veterans of the Russo-Ukrainian war who had been jailed for violent crimes inside and outside the war zone.

Only one of the attackers was charged at the end of the day — Mykola “Makar” Zynkevich of the National Corps, the political wing of the Azov Movement, as its members themselves call their vast network of large military units and paramilitary groups. 

Fast-forward seven years and the battle-hardened commander Zynkevich appears at a large event organised on the sides of the Munich Security Conference. Zynkevich's unit deals with cutting edge war technology, namely terrestrial robotic systems which aid — and may one day replace — soldiers on the battlefield.

The unit is called NC13, in which NC likely stands for Zynkevich’s political alma mater, National Corps. Number 13 is defined by the Anti-Defamation League as a white supremacist symbol Aryan Circle (A being the first and C being the third letter in the alphabet).

NC13 is part of the 3rd Detached Assault Brigade which currently makes up the core of Ukrainian army’s 3rd Corps. The brigade was founded by the political leadership of Azov Movement, which grew out of Patriot of Ukraine, a white supremacist group at the core of Azov battalion formed in 2014. Its leader, Andriy Biletsky, is now 3rd Corps commander and gets regularly listed among presidential hopefuls in the polls. 

The event on the sides of the Munich conference was organised by Snake Island Institute, a Ukrainian think-tank set up by Vladyslav Sobolevsky, formerly the chief of staff at Azov Regiment and deputy chief of staff at the National Corps, the political party. 

War beneficiaries

Back in his days as National Corps official, Sobolevsky helped to organise various protests aimed at disrupting the Paris agreements between presidents Volodymyr Zelenskiy and Vladimir Putin that led to a near-full ceasefire throughout 2020 and 2021. These protests were a part of the “No to Capitulation” campaign, announced by Azov Movement leader Andriy Biletsky in October 2019 in response to Ukraine and Russia agreeing upon the Steinmeier formula — an algorithm for the implementation of Minsk agreements proposed by German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

On March 12, 2020 Sobolevsky led National Corps activists who violently attacked Zelenskiy’s ally and Security Council deputy head, Serhiy Syvokho, when he attempted to present a pro-peace political platform. Two days later, Sobolevsky led a march of Azov veterans to the Russian embassy. The participants tore up a Russian flag and shot at the embassy from flare pistols in a show which helped to convince the Kremlin that Zelenskiy is helpless against far-right thugs and hence of little value as a negotiator.

The campaign against “capitulation” has succeeded in swaying Zelenskiy who effectively rejected peace on conditions that look infinitely better than what Ukraine can hope for now, after four years of Russia’s brutal all-out invasion. Under the Minsk agreements, Ukraine would have retained full sovereignty over most of its Donbas region as well as formal sovereignty over the smaller part, then de-facto controlled by Russia.

Zelenskiy made a U-turn on relations with Putin at the beginning of 2021 (it coincided with Joe Biden moving into the White House). He embarked on crossing Putin’s key red lines, clamping down on his previously untouchable Ukrainian ally Viktor Medvedchuk and launching a loud campaign to join Nato. Putin responded by starting to deploy troops on the Ukrainian border in March that year.

Despite the president succumbing to the pressure, relations between the Azov Movement and Zelensky’s administration remained tense during the buildup to the all-out invasion in 2021. That year, Sobolevsky led protests against Ukraine’s Security Service arresting a large group of Azov Movement activists in Kharkiv on charges of racketeering and extortion — a pointed attack at the movement’s fledgling business empire. The arrested activists were released at the start of the all-out invasion and went on to form the Kraken special unit under the auspices of Ukraine’s military intelligence (the HUR).

When the 3rd Detached Assault Brigade was reorganised into 3rd Corps in 2025, Kraken joined the corps. Its commanders — one of whom, Serhiy Velychko previously languished in prison in the SBU crackdown — were put in charge of the corps’ drone unit. Another Kraken commander set a drone pilot school called Killhouse Academy which ran a live FPV drone simulator show at the Munich conference event, with no one voicing objections to the propaganda of murder in its very name. 

The war in Ukraine allowed people from the far-right fringe jump on a social lift they could have never dreamed about, which makes them key beneficiaries of this conflict — along with Putin’s regime in Russia — and explains their interest in this war running for as long as possible, at best forever.

With Gopniks on board

Times have changed in a big way since 2011, when the BBC Panorama exposed neo-nazi ultras from Metallist Kharkiv accused of violence against people of colour at football matches. At the end of the programme, famous British player Rio Ferdinand called for the boycott of Euro-2012 held in Ukraine. These days, people from this very milieu are warmly welcome at major international events platforms, like the Munich conference. 

Coopting far-right extremists and football ultras as a potent street force that could either protect a political regime or help overthrow it is an old political technology. One may recall Arkan’s Tigers, a Serbian paramilitary group that threatened ethnic cleansing in Kosovo back in the 1990s. It was at least partly comprised of the Grobari (Gravediggers), the fans of Partisan Belgrade. 

Putin’s regime has been eager to engage both football fans and neo-nazi thugs since the early 2000s — just look at his administration’s dealings with BORN, a neo-nazi group responsible for assassinations of migrants and antifa activists. However many of these former Kremlin allies and FSB volunteer helpers, including people related to BORN, ended up in Ukraine in the heady days of the Maidan revolution. They deemed Ukraine to be closer to their far-right political ideals, while Putin launched a purge of the far right in Russia exactly because of their role in the Maidan revolution.

In social terms, secret services and presidential office operatives engaging with the far right are tapping into the social strata typically described in post-Soviet space as “gopniki”, the nearest English-language equivalent being chavs — low-class young men prone to gang-like behaviour and  criminal culture.

A predominantly Russian-speaking city, Kharkiv has its own word for gopniki — syavy. Two opposite paramilitary camps emerged in that city from this social strata — Patriot of Ukraine which grew into Azov movement and Oplot, a pro-Russian group that was instrumental in staging coup attempts in various Ukrainian regions in the spring of 2014. In a pattern characteristic of both Ukraine and Russia, both groups emerged at the conjunction of secret services, organised crime and far right activism.

People like Kraken founder Velychko (he coined the famous ‘Putin khuylo’ or ‘Putin is a dick’ chant when he was a leader of Metallist Kharkiv ultras), couldn’t possibly imagine that he would command a large, Nato-equipped military unit and the Western military-industrial complex would be keen to tap into his unit’s experience. 

At the Munich conference, the Snake Island Institute event was opened by former CIA chief David Petraeus. Among the event’s partners, the institute listed Alta Ares which describes itself as “a leading Nato-backed project to reshape the defence of Europe’s eastern flank”, deals with AI-powered drones and takes part in Nato drills. Danish anti-drone equipment manufacturer MyDefence and Rasmussen Global, the PR agency run by former Nato secretary-general Andres Fogh Rasmussen, were on the same list.

The war in Ukraine saw many former far-right activists turn into operators of unmanned fighting systems, primarily drones. Some of these are absolutely open about their political leanings — a fact which the Ukrainian government and its Western funders seem to be entirely okay with. For example, the 422nd drone regiment of the Ukrainian armed forces is called Luftwaffe and displays the Prussian/Nazi Iron Cross symbol on its logo.

Snake Island Institute people are also not the only ones who get hosted by major Western expert platforms like Munich conference. Take Yevhen Karas, the founder of C14 group which has “Fourteen Words” (a neo-nazi slogan) in its name and whose members were accused of conducting political assassinations after the Maidan revolution, including that of the journalist Oles Buzyna. Now a drone regiment commander, Karas was hosted by Chatham House, a leading British think-tank, last November. 

Members of the pro-Ukrainian commentariat tend to dismiss the very existence of a nazi problem in Ukraine, even as Kyiv landmark WWII Museum is currently hosting an exhibition dedicated to Russian Volunteer Corps, a far-right unit fighting on Ukraine’s side which draws inspiration from Hitler’s Russian allies of Gen. Vlasov’s Russian Liberation Army and uses the fascist Spayka symbol as its logo. The curator of the exhibition, Aleksey Lyovkin, is a frontman of M8L8TH (Hitler’s Hammer), in which 88 is a neo-nazi slogan which stands for Heil Hitler.

But none of that seems to bother the members of Western security establishment when people from this milieu appear at their prestigious event in Munich, a century after the Beer Hall Putch.

UKRAINIAN NATIONALIST ARMY OUN–UPA AND THE NAZI GENOCIDE




Portugal sells twice as many drones to Ukraine than it ever did to Russia

The military prepares an interception drone from the company "General Cherry" before a flight in the polygon in Ukraine on 4 December 2025.
Copyright AP Photo

By João Azevedo
Published on 

From €4 million in 2022, the year the war began, revenues have soared to €87.3 million in 2025. Portuguese exports to Ukraine, five to ten times lower before the conflict, now represent double the sales to Russia.

Portugal's drone exports to Ukraine have risen sharply since the start of the full-scale invasion of the country by Russia. Portugal is now selling more drones to Ukraine than it ever sold to Russia — and the gap is widening fast.

According to Jornal Económico, revenues from drone sales to Ukraine totalled €4 million in 2022, the year the conflict broke out, rising to €23 million in 2023 and €33 million in 2024.

Growth accelerated sharply in 2025, with revenues reaching €87.3 million. The largest Portuguese drone exporter to Ukraine is Tekever, a company based in Caldas da Rainha.

The surge has reshaped Portugal's broader trade relationships.

Ukraine climbed from 75th to 36th in the ranking of Portugal's export destinations between 2019 and 2025, while Russia fell from 34th to 50th over the same period — a decline surpassed among the top 100 destinations only by Cuba, which dropped 20 places, and Syria, which fell 19.

Before the war, Portuguese exports to Ukraine were five to ten times lower than sales to Russia.

By 2023 and 2024 that gap had narrowed to around 10%, and by 2025 Ukrainian purchases had pulled ahead to double those to Russia.

Overall, Ukrainian purchases from Portugal have jumped 110%, making Ukraine one of very few countries in the top 100 export destinations to record double- or triple-digit growth.

The trend may be further boosted by a deal signed in December between Portugal and Ukraine for the joint production of underwater drones.



Tuesday, January 06, 2026

 

Along the U.S. Gulf Coast, Dive Contractors Predict a Busy Year

Two commercial divers place rigging during an Army Corps of Engineers construction project (USACE file image)
Two commercial divers place crane rigging during an Army Corps of Engineers construction project (USACE file image)

Published Jan 6, 2026 8:58 PM by Pat Zeitler


 

All along the rebranded Gulf of America, U.S. waterfront infrastructure is getting attention after decades of deferred maintenance, and the businesses of marine salvage and ship’s husbandry are on the uptick.

Industry leaders like Brady Teasely, the HSE Manager for Leviathan Offshore LLC, are looking forward to an upcycle for diving contractors. His presentation at Underwater Intervention 2025 emphasized projected growth through 2033.

Leviathan Offshore is diving into 2026 expecting a year of full asset and labor utilization. Leviathan had a busy year in 2025 and is fully vested in meeting the demand for turnkey offshore dive services by adding two new dive support vessels to their fleet.  The first is the US-flagged MPSV Kraken. The Kraken is a diesel-electric-powered, DP2  dynamic positioning system with a below-deck Drager 14-person saturation system. The second is a US-flagged 4-point anchor boat, the DSV Proteus. The 200’ long DSV Proteus boasts a 40-ton crane and below deck systems for jetting and hydraulic packages, as well as storage for dive gases.  The DSV Proteus completed sea trials late 2025 and completed her initial projects free of incidents or mechanical delays.  The MPSV Kraken will be gearing up for work as a saturation vessel and is expected to begin her maiden project during the spring of 2026.

Inland dive contractors are also forecasting 2026 to be a robust year. In the past, it was not common to have both the inland and offshore industry segments in full swing at the same time. In past years when the offshore oil and gas segment was booming, the inland segment consisting of waterfront facilities and civil infrastructure would often be in a state of lull and vice versa.  That was then. Looking ahead, the foreseeable new normal is expected to be something different.

Tim Wakefield founded Dead Calm Seas Marine Services LLC in 2019 with an intent and purpose of improving the industry. Since its inception, the Dead Calm Seas team seem to be busy doing just that. In the field, on and below the water, Tim and his team are all about setting the standard for safety, diver pay and quality of work.

“Standards, enforcement, accountability, every diver home” are key goals of diver turned businessman Tim Wakefield.  Dead Calm Seas LLC have achieved this by undergoing a near constant process of auditing from organizations like IMCA, ADCI, IOGP as well as current and potential customers. Wakefield says that “it is important to understand what customers are the right fit for your company, and it is very achievable to work for the majors if you make the sacrifice.”  This model of doing business is working: Dead Calm Seas has grown exponentially every year, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026.

Part of the trick for growth for Dead Calm Seas is to develop and hire divers with a diverse range of talent. Their team’s skillset includes salvage, marine firefighting, rope access and non-destructive testing. A group of Dead Calm Seas Divers are currently outfitting a portable IMCA-compliant saturation system. Working with surface supplied mixed gas and saturation diving is not unheard of for inland divers, but it is rare that an inland dive company or any dive contractor has such well-rounded skillsets. Maybe this too will become the new normal.

Companies like Leviathan Offshore LLC and Dead Calm Seas LLC are prepared for a period of growth during this new uptick, but this does not come without challenges. The biggest and most obvious is the shortage of qualified labor. The skill deficit is industry-wide, and is not limited to the diving crews. Support staff such as project management teams and HSE support are also in a deficit of experienced personnel. “We must find a way to get the next generation ready. This is an issue that needs to be addressed,” Wakefield says.

His sentiments are echoed by many in the industry. The expectation is that 2026 is going to be a busy year, and the art of crew management is going to be put to the test.

Monday, January 05, 2026


Why does Ottawa want to regulate Canadian stablecoins?

By Joshua Santos
January 05, 2026 

Adam Garetson, leader of Blockchain & Digital Assets Group at Gowling WLG, joins BNN Bloomberg to provide a lookahead to crypto in Canada heading into 2026.

Stablecoins have become increasingly popular over the years, drawing the attention of the federal government to regulate them in Canada.

Cryptocurrency groups called on the government to simplify the rules to make it easier to launch Canadian dollar-linked stablecoins in the New Year.

Proposed stablecoin rules, expected in the Spring 2026 session, will introduce asset management requirements intended to bolster domestic financial sovereignty and counter foreign digital currency influence.
What is a stablecoin?

Stablecoins are a type of cryptocurrency token built on a blockchain network, designed to maintain a steady value redeemable for a pegged flat currency, such as a Canadian or American dollar, on a 1:1 basis. The backing of a dollar ensures their stable value.

The Circle website arranged on a smartphone in New York, US, on Wednesday, Feb. 12, 2025. Circle Internet Financial Ltd.'s USDC stablecoin has gained back all of the market value it lost after the collapse in crypto prices following the failure of FTX. Photographer: Gabby Jones/Bloomberg (Gabby Jones/Bloomberg)

Ottawa said it aims to foster a domestic, Canadian dollar-backed stablecoin ecosystem to counter the import of foreign currencies.


“It really is designed to be the equivalent of holding cash at the end of the day, just digitally, on a blockchain, on the computer,” Adam Garetson, partner of blockchain and fintech at Gowling WLG told BNN Bloomberg.

Unlike volatile assets like Bitcoin, stablecoins are centralized, issued and managed by companies or issuers like Tether and Circle and designed for everyday transactions.
Why do stablecoins matter?

Stablecoins bridge the gap between traditional and digital finance. They act as primary on-ramps and off-ramps for the crypto ecosystem, according to a report from Mastercard.

International transfers can be settled within minutes at minimal costs, 24/7, offering an efficient alternative to slow, expensive traditional wire transfers, according to TD Economics.Latest updates on crypto news here

Mastercard said efficiency and accessibility promote financial inclusion for the world’s unbanked populations, requiring only an internet connection and a digital wallet to access global financial services.
Why is regulation being called for?

The Bank of Canada and cryptocurrency industry groups say the main concern for Ottawa is the potential impact on Canadian monetary sovereignty and financial stability, particularly as financial markets see an increase of U.S. backed digital currencies.


“Large firms like Shopify moved quickly to accept USDC,” Vass Bednar, managing director of the Canadian SHIELD Institute for Public Policy told BNN Bloomberg in an interview. “When our most valuable company is transacting through stablecoin, the policy environment here needs to recognize that innovation.”

The cryptocurrency groups warn if U.S. backed stablecoins become common in Canadian transactions, Canada could lose influence over it’s own currency and monetary policy.

A significant driver for the push of Canadian backed stablecoins is international development and corporate action, Bednar said. The U.S. introduced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act, a law designed to enforce the use and support of the U.S. dollar as a stablecoin.

“I think the biggest prompt to our expedited policy response was the general threat to monetary sovereignty through the GENIUS Act,” said Bednar.
Proposed rules for stablecoins issuers

Budget 2025 will bring legislation to establish rules for stablecoin issuers with Bill C-15. The rules will require genuine support of the digital assets and deal with issues of risk management, information privacy and national security.

“The Stablecoin Act governs issuers,” said Gareston. “It governs the issuance, creation and redemption of stable coins. So effectively an investor could go to an issuer, an actual creator of the stablecoin, and give them cash for stable coins.”

Circle said in January it filed a draft registration statement to go public with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Photographer: Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Getty Images (Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto/Photographer:Jakub Porzycki/NurP)

An investor could then use the currency on digital financial markets such as Kraken or Coinbase and trade on the market. Issuers of the coin, however, cannot generate interest on supported dollars.

Garetson helps public and private businesses navigate a complex legal and commercial environment around finance and tech sectors. He does not have a timeline for when the act will be enforced but advises businesses to begin preparing now by aligning with governance, compliance and operational systems.

Bednar meanwhile expects it will pass early next year as opposing parties back it.

“It is anticipated that the Conservative party is supportive of this legislation, meaning it could be passed in the Spring 2026 session,” said Bednar.

The draft law includes a strict ban on issuers paying interest or yield on stablecoins. Further, federal, provincial securities laws still apply.

“Canadians expect regulatory environments to reflect and anticipate the realities of today, and not be in constant catch-up mode,” said Bednar. “Trump’s GENIUS Act was the kick in the pants we needed.”

The Act mandates stablecoin issuers use qualified custodians to hold reserves, ensuring assets are backed, separate from the issuer’s own funds, and protected from bankruptcy. Custodians are typically regulated financial institutions that safeguard reserve assets reporting to the central bank or regulator. Bednar wonders who can qualify as a custodian.

“Legislation is silent about who can act as a qualified custodian, and where, geographically, reserve assets must be held,” said Bednar.

Joshua Santos

Journalist, BNNBloomberg.ca

Sunday, December 21, 2025

Morgan Stanley seen as front-runner for SpaceX IPO, sources say


Echo Wang, Joey Roulette and Milana Vinn
Fri, December 19, 2025 

NEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley is emerging as a leading contender for a key role in SpaceX's blockbuster initial public offering, as the bank's close ties to CEO Elon Musk give it an edge in his decision, according to three people familiar with the matter.



How large could SpaceX's IPO potentially be?



What are SpaceX's plans for the IPO proceeds?



Why is Morgan Stanley favored for SpaceX IPO?



What changed Musk's thinking about going public?


A selection process, ​or "bake-off," for the IPO is still underway, with a select group of banks, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, vying for roles, four people familiar with the matter said, ‌adding that there is no certainty Morgan Stanley will secure the coveted "lead left" underwriting position, the sources said.

Musk's ties to Morgan Stanley run deep, dating back at least 15 years, leaving it widely viewed as the leading contender to run the syndicate ‌of underwriters, three of the people said, though no banks have been selected yet and the discussions remain fluid.

The sources spoke on condition of anonymity because the discussions are confidential. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan declined to comment, while SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment.


SpaceX is one of the world’s largest private companies and its potential IPO would be highly complex.

While Musk has not yet picked the lead banks, a decision could come before the end of the year, with the full syndicate likely to be finalized afterward, two of the people added.

The people cautioned that while plans are progressing, the IPO ⁠remains contingent on market conditions, and SpaceX could choose to delay ‌or abandon the offering altogether.

LINKS TO TESLA'S IPO

Morgan Stanley, which has advised Musk for years, was among the banks that took Tesla public in 2010, alongside Goldman Sachs, the lead left, JPMorgan and Deutsche Bank. Morgan Stanley later advised Musk and led the financing for his 2022 acquisition of Twitter, now X.

Musk ‍recently tapped one of his Morgan Stanley bankers on that deal, Anthony Armstrong, to become chief financial officer of his artificial intelligence venture xAI.


The connection runs even deeper through Musk’s family office in Austin, Texas. Another former Morgan Stanley banker who advised Musk on various Wall Street dealings over the years, Jared Birchall, built and runs Excession, which manages his personal assets, Reuters previously reported.

STAFF MEMO

In a staff memo sent last week, SpaceX Chief Financial ​Officer Bret Johnsen informed staff that the company was preparing for a public offering in 2026.

"Whether it actually happens, when it happens, and at what valuation are still highly uncertain, but the ‌thinking is that if we execute brilliantly and the markets cooperate, a public offering could raise a significant amount of capital," Johnsen wrote.


Reuters has previously reported that SpaceX is seeking to raise more than $25 billion in an IPO that could come next year, a sum that would make it one of the biggest public listings ever globally.

The decision to go public caught some by surprise, given SpaceX's status as one of the world's largest private companies.


While Musk has long expressed a preference for keeping SpaceX private, people familiar with his thinking indicated that the company’s growing valuation and the success of its Starlink satellite-internet service have prompted a shift in strategy.

SpaceX, long known for its dominant rocket launch business, has become the world's largest satellite operator through Starlink, a network of nearly 10,000 satellites beaming ⁠broadband internet to consumers, governments and enterprise customers.

While there had been previous speculation about Starlink going public on ​its own, these people say the IPO could include both businesses, though the plans remain subject to change.

AI FUELS NEED ​FOR CAPITAL

SpaceX, Johnsen wrote in his email, would use the capital raised from an IPO to increase the flight rate of its next-generation Starship rocket under development and deploy AI data centers in space, an effort complementary to its Starlink business that would more closely tie the company to the AI boom.


The company would ‍also build "Moonbase Alpha," a base on the lunar surface ⁠that Musk has mentioned. SpaceX is a core contractor in NASA's Artemis moon program with a $4 billion contract to land astronauts on the lunar surface using Starship.

Sending humans and robots to Mars has been Musk's long-held vision for SpaceX, with revenues from Starlink contributing to development of Starship, which is also envisioned to serve as a Mars transportation system.

Musk, during ⁠his stint as a government efficiency czar with U.S. President Donald Trump, had pushed for a greater American focus on Mars and advocated for a former associate, Jared Isaacman, to lead NASA. Isaacman became NASA chief on Tuesday.

Starlink remains SpaceX's ‌top revenue-generating business. The company is expanding the satellite network into the wireless market with Starlink Mobile, which it trademarked in October.

(Reporting by Echo Wang and Milana Vinn ‌in New York and Joey Roulette in Washington; Editing by Dawn Kopecki, Jamie Freed and Nick Zieminski)




Elon Musk's SpaceX Could Be Preparing for a Huge IPO. Here's What to Know.

Colin Laidley
Mon, December 15, 2025 


Paul Hennessy / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images


Musk’s SpaceX is reportedly hearing pitches from investment banks interested in advising on an IPO.

Key Takeaways

Elon Musk's SpaceX is reportedly hearing pitches from investment banks this week as the space exploration company considers going public in what could be the largest IPO to date.


Next year could be a big one for IPOs: AI startups OpenAI and Anthropic are among the other private companies reportedly exploring going public next year.


Wall Street may be headed for a year of blockbuster IPOs in 2026. And a company led by Elon Musk could be leading the way.


Musk’s SpaceX is reportedly hearing pitches this week from investment banks interested in advising on what could be the largest initial public offering in history, The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday. That news advanced reports that the space exploration company was considering going public from last week, when Bloomberg said SpaceX is targeting a mid-to-late 2026 IPO that would raise $30 billion and value the company at about $1.5 trillion, among the biggest companies in the S&P 500.

If SpaceX hits its IPO targets, it would surpass Saudi Aramco, the Saudi state-owned oil company, as the largest debut in history. Aramco raised about $29 billion when it went public in 2019. (SpaceX is reportedly in the process of buying insider shares at a price that values it at $800 billion, double its valuation from this summer.) The company didn't respond to Investopedia's request for comment in time for publication.

Why This Is Important

IPO activity often reflects the prevailing mood on Wall Street, with listings rising when optimism is high and vice versa. The IPO market began to return to normal in 2025 after years of being pressured by high interest rates.

SpaceX stock can't be traded yet, but some market watchers are already betting on a big response from investors when it can. Saudi Aramco debuted with a market capitalization of nearly $1.9 trillion; users of online prediction market Polymarket on Monday put the chance of SpaceX's market cap finishing its first day of trading above $2 trillion at about 14%.


A listing of that size would make SpaceX founder and CEO Elon Musk, already the world's richest person, even wealthier. Musk's SpaceX stake accounts for more than a quarter of his $470 billion fortune, according to Bloomberg, which estimates that he owns about 42% of the company. Holding a stake anywhere close to that size when SpaceX goes public could make Musk the world's first trillionaire far earlier than some thought possible.

Musk has for years said he has no interest in taking SpaceX public, which he worried would derail his plans to facilitate the colonization of Mars. But he and others have lately discussed the notion that insufficient electricity is restraining the AI boom, and that sending data centers into space, where they can draw on solar energy, could help.


Musk last week called “accurate” a report that SpaceX was considering going public to fund efforts to develop orbital data center technology. SpaceX has reportedly floated the idea of using Starlink satellites to host AI workloads as part of its recent pitch to investors.

SpaceX is one of several massive companies considering a public offering next year. ChatGPT maker OpenAI, valued at $500 billion in October, has reportedly discussed a public offering with bankers. Competitor Anthropic is reportedly preparing for an IPO, according to the Financial Times, which also reported the company was targeting a $300 billion valuation in a funding round. Data software company Databricks, TikTok parent ByteDance and fintech Stripe are also rumored to be exploring IPOs next year.

Investors have been waiting years for the return of IPOs. Hundreds of companies went public via IPO or SPAC merger in 2021, spurred by post-pandemic liquidity and rock-bottom interest rates. Activity fell off a cliff in 2022 when the Federal Reserve began raising rates to address soaring inflation. The IPO market stayed cold until this year, when activity has finally picked back up, albeit at a more modest pace than during the pandemic bonanza



SpaceX’s Lofty IPO Valuation Hinges on Big Bet on Outsize Growth


Bailey Lipschultz, Sana Pashankar and Loren Grush
December 11, 2025

(Bloomberg) -- To buy into SpaceX’s audacious $1.5 trillion valuation in a listing next year, investors will need to have faith in Elon Musk’s equally galactic vision for his rocket and satellite maker, from orbital data centers to lunar factories to human settlements on Mars.

SpaceX is planning an initial public offering that may be the world’s biggest ever. Its revenue is forecast to be between $22 billion to $24 billion in 2026, largely fueled by its Starlink satellite-internet unit, according to people familiar with the matter.

Photographer: Joe Raedle/Getty Images

At that level, the proposed IPO valuation would clock in at an eye-popping 62.5 times sales. Of listed firms with similar characteristics, only Palantir Technologies Inc. comes close, at about 70 times.

The near-term investment case is that Starlink and a nascent mobile phone service fueled by its acquisition of spectrum from EchoStar Corp. provide the foundation for the outsize growth that IPO buyers will demand.


Musk’s plan, and the driving force behind his decision to pursue a faster-than-expected IPO, is much grander: orbital artificial intelligence data centers forming a distributed network in space. Musk appeared to endorse this vision, as well as Starship rockets bringing humans to settlements on Mars, and the futuristic notion of satellite factories on the moon, in a post on X late on Wednesday.

SpaceX’s IPO, then, is a bet on owning vast swaths of the space economy through the convergence of AI, robots and travel.



Will investors buy it? Skeptics aren’t hard to find. But to a number of observers, the combination of the near-term potential and Musk’s long-term outlook is irresistible and will catapult SpaceX into the realm of the “Magnificent Seven” companies like Nvidia Corp. and Microsoft Corp.

“This is an N of 1 company with limited to no real competition from the Mag 7 and it will likely have the biggest retail bid of all time,” said Jeremy Abelson, founder and portfolio manager at Irving Investors, whose firm is an investor in SpaceX. “The valuation will not, and does not need to, make sense when it comes public.”


Crown Jewel

A critical aspect of pitching a valuation north of $1 trillion in 2026 is the company’s current crown jewel: Starlink.

There could be more than one billion Starlink subscribers in 2040, Morgan Stanley’s analysts estimated in October, with the unit potentially accounting for nearly three-quarters of SpaceX’s roughly $122 billion in projected sales by that time.


The fast-growing unit makes up the majority of SpaceX’s current sales, and its potential as a mobile network provider is already setting it up to take on a legacy industry similar to how Musk’s Tesla Inc. tackled the auto business.

The company has a partnership with T-Mobile US Inc. to provide satellite service to cell phone users in remote areas. It is set to increase its direct-to-mobile capacity by more than 100 times thanks in part to spectrum deals struck with EchoStar earlier this year, enabling full 5G cellular connectivity, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Jonas, a long-time Musk bull, wrote in September.


The amount of spectrum in the EchoStar transaction wouldn’t be enough to provide a disruptive, competitive mobile service, Citigroup Inc. analyst Michael Rollins said in September.

For now, Starlink’s ambition to cross-sell existing carriers would offer lucrative sales opportunities without the investment burden of competing with them directly, according to Morgan Stanley.

Eventually, Starlink could “theoretically beam into every cell phone on planet Earth,” resulting in an “almost an unlimited total addressable market,” said Ali Javaheri, an emerging technology analyst at PitchBook, in an interview.

Investors are similarly bullish on the company’s near-monopoly on the business of sending things to space, counting NASA and the US Department of Defense among its customers. Even AST SpaceMobile Inc., an upstart rival to Starlink, relies on SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rockets to get its satellites in orbit.



Despite that dominance, Morgan Stanley believes launch will account for less revenue in the coming decades. The company’s developmental Starship rocket will eventually take the baton for launches from the Falcon 9. Musk promises it will do everything from launching satellites to shuttling people to the moon — which NASA has awarded SpaceX contracts worth roughly $4 billion to do.


SpaceX’s current dominance of internet from low-Earth orbit and the launch business, paired with dreams of data centers in space and frequent trips to Mars, could make the timing of an IPO “as good as it gets,” according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst George Ferguson.

That’s not necessarily an endorsement.

Frothy Market

Ferguson expects competition to grow, and pointed to Blue Origin LLC, the company founded and bankrolled by Amazon.com Inc. founder Jeff Bezos, among the companies that could see success in the coming years to close the gap.

By that logic, there’s no time like the present for a public listing.

“The more you sit on it, the more other companies can build, have success launching into space, and the less people will value you as if you’re a one of a kind company,” Ferguson said in an interview.


SpaceX’s leadership in space, in an environment where “valuation sensitivity is not high,” means the company will have “a significant amount of latitude” to live up to expectations as a publicly listed company, said Evelyn Chow, portfolio manager of Neuberger Berman’s Next-Gen Space Economy strategy.

It would need a lot.

A massive IPO is designed to fund the development of Musk’s plan for space-based data centers, as Bloomberg reported. That wouldn’t assuage practical concerns raised by Morgan Stanley analysts, who caveated the list of potential benefits such as the low temperatures in space and abundant solar power, with challenges that include maintenance in orbit and radiation requiring specialized hardware.

Market timing could also work against a listing, especially if institutional investor concern around potential overspending on AI gets more serious.


Aviation analyst Rob Stallard sees SpaceX’s IPO calculation as a “sure sign that the equity market is frothy.” With its expected $15 billion in sales this year, a $1.5 trillion valuation would add up to “a mere” 100 times revenue, Stallard said.

Even at the $800 billion valuation being weighed in SpaceX’s latest insider share sale, the company would be larger than the combined market caps of the six largest US defense firms, and would trail just 12 members of the S&P 500 Index, Morgan Stanley said.

“Valuation is subjective, unless you’ve got a voting public that determines your price,” said Chris Quilty, co-CEO and president of Quilty Space, a space research firm. While SpaceX’s board is nominally choosing the target, “In essence, one person, Elon Musk, could set that valuation.”

Indeed, as with all of his ventures, valuation discussions ultimately lead back to the founder himself. Some see it as the ultimate key man risk; PitchBook’s Javaheri called Musk’s track record of building successful companies the “Elon premium”.

Regardless of the sum-of-the-parts model analysts use to estimate the fair value for SpaceX, the lack of direct rivals — and the Elon factor — will make any valuation “hard for investors to wrap their heads around,” according to Irving Investors’ Abelson. That ambiguity can work to the company’s advantage.

“What better time to go to market with this, at a time when you don’t know if data centers in space work, you don’t know if you can mine the moon, a trip to Mars seems possible?” said Bloomberg Intelligence’s Ferguson.

“There’s no better time than now, when there are all of these possibilities.”

--With assistance from Ed Ludlow.

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.




Elon Musk's SpaceX to raise over $25 billion in blockbuster 2026 IPO, source says




REUTERS
December 10, 2025
By Echo Wang, Manya Saini and Juby Babu

Dec 10 (Reuters) - Elon Musk's SpaceX is looking to raise more than $25 billion through an initial public offering in 2026, a move that could boost the rocket-maker's valuation to over $1 trillion, a person familiar with ​the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The company's move towards a public listing, which could rank among the largest global IPOs, has been ‌largely driven by the rapid expansion of its Starlink satellite internet business, including plans for direct-to-mobile service and progress in its Starship rocket program for moon and Mars missions.

SpaceX has ‌started discussions with banks about launching the offering around June or July, the person said, requesting anonymity to discuss confidential information.

The company did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.

Talks over a listing plan are unfolding against the backdrop of a resurgence in the IPO market in 2025 after a three-year dry spell.

Wall Street's top executives expect the momentum to carry into 2026, turbocharged by a pipeline of high-profile companies preparing to test investor demand.


"SpaceX represents one ⁠of the most exciting opportunities in the global IPO ‌market and has been on the dream-list of several investors for years," Samuel Kerr, head of equity capital markets at Mergermarket told Reuters.

"It is a genuine growth industry, with space technology seen as a key frontier in both defense, ‍satellite proliferation and in tech infrastructure in general the growth of orbital data centers."

BLOCKBUSTER LISTING

Several big startups have stayed private for longer and continued to raise capital in private markets, and a listing from a company like SpaceX could prompt more of them to move toward public offerings.

SpaceX ranks as the world's second most-valuable private startup ​after ChatGPT maker OpenAI, according to data from Crunchbase. OpenAI and rival Anthropic are also reportedly in talks for an IPO next year.

"If all ‌these deals come through the U.S. IPO market will experience a genuine revival, the green shoots of which have already been seen this year," Kerr said.

The news of the potential IPO comes days after a media report that said SpaceX is kicking off a secondary share sale that would value the rocket-maker at $800 billion. However, Musk dismissed the report, calling it inaccurate.

Saudi Aramco is the only completed IPO to achieve a more than $1 trillion valuation. The state-owned petroleum and natural gas giant debuted in December 2019 with an estimated market capitalization of $1.7 trillion.

SpaceX expects to use funds from the public listing ⁠to develop space-based data centers, including purchasing the chips required to run them, according to ​Bloomberg News, which was first to report the potential terms of the offering.

SPACE RACE

Several billionaires ​and private firms are fueling a new space race in the U.S., pouring money into rockets, satellites and lunar missions, including SpaceX and Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin.

With NASA relying more on commercial partnerships and defense spending rising, the space industry ‍is becoming a high-stakes arena for technological ⁠dominance, national security and economic opportunity.

Still, questions about Musk's ability to run multiple listed companies valued at more than $1 trillion could keep investors cautious, analysts said.

"SpaceX could be one of the most divisive stocks to join the market in years," Dan Coatsworth, head of markets at ⁠AJ Bell told Reuters.

"If SpaceX did float, expect growing pressure on Musk to commit to only one of his listed entities – Tesla or SpaceX. It's hard to see how one ‌individual could run two $1 trillion+ companies at the same time."

(Reporting by Echo Wang in New York, Juby Babu in Mexico ‌City and Manya Saini in Bengaluru; Editing by Maju Samuel and Arun Koyyur)


Elon Musk reportedly plans massive IPO for SpaceX. Here’s what that means

Chris Isidore, Jackie Wattles, CNN
December 10, 2025

Elon Musk is reportedly considering a public offering for SpaceX. - Evelyn Hockstein/Reuters

Elon Musk, already the world’s richest man, could soon be much richer. Bloomberg reports he’s planning one of the largest initial public offerings in history for SpaceX.

Musk’s space company plans to raise $30 billion next year, Bloomberg reported, and an IPO could value the company at up to $1.5 trillion. SpaceX did not respond to a request for comment on the report.

SpaceX has not had any trouble raising money despite being privately-held. But the ability to sell public shares could increase the cash flow into a company with ambitious, and exorbitantly expensive, plans.

A Wall Street debut would give Musk the added benefit of increasing his already massive wealth. However, it would also bring outside scrutiny to how SpaceX conducts business, something that has rankled Musk during his time running Tesla.
What does Elon Musk stand to gain?

The money raised would go to the company, not to Musk. But given that he reportedly owns nearly half the company’s shares, it would significantly increase his net worth.

A publicly-traded SpaceX means Musk could more easily borrow against the value of his stake in the company, as he has with his Tesla holdings. That frees up tax-free cash for his various endeavors.

According to Bloomberg’s Billionaire Tracker, Musk currently has a net worth of $461 billion with most of that due to his Tesla shares and options. If SpaceX is worth $1.5 trillion, that net worth could more than double, according to Bloomberg.
Why does it need to go public?

SpaceX is at an inflection point. It has cornered most of the market for astronaut and satellite launches. And its constellation of Starlink microsatellites has turned the company into a major internet service provider.

SpaceX's heavy Starship rocket makes a test flight in October. - Eric Gay/AP

More capital could help the company reach its more ambitious goals. (Even if its ultimate goal, a colony on Mars, proves to be technologically and economically prohibitive.)

SpaceX’s next generation of heavy rocket, dubbed “Starship” by the company, is a radical new approach to reaching outer space. But its still in development – and the rocket has suffered a number of mishaps and explosions during testing that have cast doubt on Musk’s ambitious timelines.

Going public would also allow current investors to cash out their stake in the company at a profit.

Who is invested in SpaceX?

SpaceX’s business has drawn a wide spectrum of major investors, including Google parent Alphabet, financial giants such as Fidelity Investments, and prominent venture capital firms such as the Founders Fund, Sequoia Capital, Valor Equity Partners, and Andreessen Horowitz.


The company has raised $10 billion in funding already, according to Pitchbook. And any time it’s raised funds, it’s had more people clamoring to give it money than it needs.
Why is SpaceX believed to be so valuable?

Unlike most other space companies, SpaceX has a positive cash flow, according to the most recent tweets from Musk.

Musk said the Starlink business provides most of the company’s current revenue. But it also has multibillion-dollar contracts to service the International Space Station as well as carry astronauts to the moon under NASA’s program.

Starship has suffered several explosive setbacks during uncrewed test flights in 2025. However, if successful, Starship is expected to underpin SpaceX’s Mars ambitions, which include establishing a permanent settlement on the planet. Starship could also slash the price of carrying a kilogram of cargo to space by orders of magnitude.
Are there drawbacks to going public?

Yes. And no one has been more focused on those downsides than Musk.

Going public could put investor pressure on the company’s capital-intensive plans, which might not produce a return on any investment for years to come, if at all.

It also means greater oversight from the public, and scrutiny from regulators such as the Security and Exchange Commission, which Musk has battled with in the past. This is evident in how he’s responded to scrutiny of Tesla. In 2018, Musk proposed taking Tesla private once again, a move he eventually abandoned.

Musk has also regularly battled some investor groups. That includes analysts and short sellers (who make money by betting a stock will decline) as well with firms that advise institutional shareholders. He recently called such research firms “corporate terrorists.”




Musk Confirms SpaceX Is Preparing for an IPO


Moz Farooque ACCA


December 11, 2025 

This article first appeared on GuruFocus.

Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla (TSLA, Financials) and SpaceX, has confirmed what many investors have been wondering about for months: SpaceX is indeed moving toward an IPO. The acknowledgement came casually on X, where Musk replied to a post from Ars Technica's Eric Berger with, As usual, Eric is accurate. With that short comment, he essentially gave the strongest signal yet that the company is laying the groundwork to go public.

Is TSLA fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator.

Musk didn't commit to a date, but the consensus view points to 2026. SpaceX's momentum from Starlink's expanding subscriber base to ongoing Starship development has only fueled expectations that the company could debut with a massive valuation. Some analysts think it could eventually reach the trillion-dollar mark, thanks to recurring revenue from satellite broadband and the growing demand for space infrastructure.

Musk also said that he is looking at options for Tesla stockholders to buy SpaceX shares when it goes public. The details aren't apparent yet, but the statement makes it seem like he's thinking about ways to thank long-time investors who have backed him in a number of businesses.

Now that Musk has publicly confirmed the plan, the attention switches to time and structure. Will SpaceX's public debut change the space sector in the same way that Tesla's debut changed the electric vehicle market.



SpaceX May Launch IPO Market To The Moon

Photo via SpaceX


Brian Boyle
December 10, 2025 

Elon Musk once promised that SpaceX wouldn’t go public until it delivered humans to Mars (lest pesky shareholders prioritize short-term profits over the long-term project of Martian colonization). The Red Planet must be within shouting distance, judging by the financial buzz. No, turns out it’s a lot easier to land on the S&P 500 these days than on Mars, so why wait?

On Wednesday, Bloomberg reported that Musk’s aerospace company is moving ahead with plans to raise $30 billion for an initial public offering at an out-of-this-world valuation of $1.5 trillion, with a countdown clock set for mid- to late 2026. And while it may not be on course for Mars, the SpaceX rocket ship might yet deliver next year’s IPO market to a whole new stratosphere.

Reach For The Stars

SpaceX’s potential monster IPO would come after what has been a remarkable rebound year for public listings. Per another Bloomberg analysis published Wednesday, US IPO volume (not including SPACs and closed-end funds) is set to surpass $40 billion this year once medical supply company MedLine prices its IPO next week, easily besting last year’s total. Dealmakers on Wall Street are already preparing for an even bigger 2026. “The velocity of IPO pitch activity is overwhelming, in a good way, across every industry,” Jim Cooney, Bank of America’s head of Americas equity capital markets, told Bloomberg.

Already likely on deck for next year are names such as defense contractor York Space Systems and insurance firm Ethos Technologies, as well as crypto exchange Kraken and construction rental company EquipmentShare. But those names would be easily eclipsed by SpaceX, officially the world’s most valuable private company once again after a recent secondary share sale that valued the company at $800 million. And it may be one of a handful of shooting stars to go public next year:

Joining SpaceX, of course, might be the world’s second-most-valuable private company, OpenAI, which is similarly eying a $1 trillion valuation. (The difference between SpaceX and OpenAI? SpaceX claims to have been cash flow positive for several years now.)

Other “centicorns,” or private companies valued at $100 billion or more, possibly making public market debuts next year include Anthropic, ByteDance, DataBricks and Stripe; for reference, the median market cap of an S&P 500 company is about $40 billion. Per Bloomberg calculations, Wall Street could soon usher some $2.9 trillion worth of private companies into public markets.

Two Tickets to Paradise: While Musk may not have a ticket to Mars yet, a SpaceX IPO would be a second ticket to becoming the world’s first trillionaire. The first, of course, is Musk’s recently secured and first-of-its-kind 12-figure pay package at Tesla, which requires the company to reach some moonshot sales goals. Take it as a valuable lesson: Shoot for the moon, twice if you can, for even if you miss, you’ll land atop the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.

This post first appeared on The Daily Upside




Elon Musk's SpaceX chases a $1.5 trillion IPO

Quartz · Photo by Paul Hennesy/Anadolu via Getty Images


Shannon Carroll
December 10, 2025

Elon Musk is getting ready to see how much public investors will pay for his literal moonshots.

SpaceX is working toward a mid- to late-2026 IPO that, according to Bloomberg, could raise significantly more than $30 billion at a valuation of about $1.5 trillion. If bankers hit those numbers, it would be the biggest stock-market debut on record, leapfrogging Saudi Aramco’s roughly $29 billion listing in 2019 and dropping a rocket company straight into the same valuation airspace as Meta or Amazon.


The deal would bring the entire SpaceX machine — rockets, Starlink satellites, a growing defense business, plus a slate of off-world infrastructure projects — onto public markets in one shot, not just the Starlink unit Musk once dangled as a standalone IPO after its cash flow turned “predictable.” Analysts and bankers are modeling revenue of around $15 billion in 2025 and $22 billion to $24 billion in 2026, with Starlink doing most of the work, which means investors would be paying something like 60 to 70 times next year’s sales for a company that still blows up prototypes on livestreams.

SpaceX’s pitch is that this is no ordinary industrial listing. A chunk of the IPO cash is reportedly earmarked for space-based data centers and the chips to run them — essentially turning low-Earth orbit into a cloud region — on top of funding Starship, more Starlink launches, and presumably some classified work that keeps the Pentagon on speed dial. All of that makes for a seductive growth story if you believe in off-planet infrastructure... and a very expensive science project if you don’t.

In 2013, Musk told his social media followers there were “no near term plans” to IPO SpaceX and that any listing was “only possible in [the] very long term when Mars Colonial Transporter is flying regularly.” Five years later, company president Gwynne Shotwell was still saying, “We can’t go public until we’re flying regularly to Mars.” Well, then.

Private markets have been rehearsing this moment for a while. A tender offer in late 2023 valued SpaceX at about $175 billion; by the end of 2024, an insider share sale had pushed that figure to roughly $350 billion, making it — at the time — the world’s most valuable startup on paper. (OpenAI briefly leapfrogged SpaceX.) The Wall Street Journal then reported talks around a secondary sale at an $800 billion valuation, which would have made SpaceX the most richly priced private company in the U.S.; Musk fired back on X that those fundraising reports were “not accurate” and pointed instead to years of positive cash flow and regular buybacks to give employees liquidity. And now: over $1 trillion.

Public investors would be buying into a company that already launches more than 80% of global payload weight, runs a fast-growing satellite internet service, and sits at the center of U.S. space and defense strategy — and whose CEO is simultaneously running Tesla, X, xAI, and a live feed of his own impulses. A blockbuster IPO at this scale wouldn’t just raise capital for rockets and data centers; it would lock in another gigantic public-market currency that Musk can use as a lever against everything else he touches. Oh, and a successful listing at a $1.5 trillion marker would more than double Musk’s already staggering net worth and hand him a second mega-cap stock to wield alongside Tesla.

If SpaceX does ring the bell in 2026, the story investors are buying is a record-scale space-and-infrastructure bet valued somewhere north of $1 trillion — plus a fresh test of how much volatility they’re still willing to underwrite from Musk.