World’s 1.5C climate target ‘deader than a doornail’, experts say

Scientists say goal to keep world’s temperature rise below 1.5C is not going to happen despite talks at Cop29 in Baku

Oliver Milman

Mon 18 Nov 2024

THE GUARDIAN

The internationally agreed goal to keep the world’s temperature rise below 1.5C is now “deader than a doornail”, with 2024 almost certain to be the first individual year above this threshold, climate scientists have gloomily concluded – even as world leaders gather for climate talks on how to remain within this boundary.

Three of the five leading research groups monitoring global temperatures consider 2024 on track to be at least 1.5C (2.7F) hotter than pre-industrial times, underlining it as the warmest year on record, beating a mark set just last year. The past 10 consecutive years have already been the hottest 10 years ever recorded.


Although a single year above 1.5C does not itself spell climate doom or break the 2015 Paris agreement, in which countries agreed to strive to keep the long-term temperature rise below this point, scientists have warned this aspiration has in effect been snuffed out despite the exhortations of leaders currently gathered at a United Nations climate summit in Azerbaijan.

“The goal to avoid exceeding 1.5C is deader than a doornail. It’s almost impossible to avoid at this point because we’ve just waited too long to act,” said Zeke Hausfather, climate research lead at Stripe and a research scientist at Berkeley Earth. “We are speeding past the 1.5C line an accelerating way and that will continue until global emissions stop climbing.”

Last year was so surprisingly hot, even in the context of the climate crisis, that it caused “some soul-searching” among climate scientists, Hausfather said. In recent months there has also been persistent heat despite the fading of El Niño, a periodic climate event that exacerbated temperatures already elevated by the burning of fossil fuels.

“It’s going to be the hottest year by an unexpectedly large margin. If it continues to be this warm it’s a worrying sign,” he said. “Going past 1.5C this year is very symbolic, and it’s a sign that we are getting ever closer to going past that target.”

Climate scientists broadly expect it will become apparent the 1.5C target, agreed upon by governments after pleas from vulnerable island states that they risk being wiped out if temperatures rise further than this, has been exceeded within the coming decade.

Despite countries agreeing to shift away from fossil fuels, this year is set to hit a new record for planet-heating emissions, and even if current national pledges are met the world is on track for 2.7C (4.8F) warming, risking disastrous heatwaves, floods, famines and unrest. “We are clearly failing to bend the curve,” said Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga, an analyst at Climate Analytics, which helped produce the Climate Action Tracker (Cat) temperature estimate.


However, the Cop29 talks in Baku have maintained calls for action to stay under 1.5C. “Only you can beat the clock on 1.5C,” António Guterres, secretary general of the UN, urged world leaders on Tuesday, while also acknowledging the planet was undergoing a “masterclass in climate destruction”.

Yet the 1.5C target now appears to be simply a rhetorical, rather than scientifically achievable, one, bar massive amounts of future carbon removal from as-yet unproven technologies. “I never thought 1.5C was a conceivable goal. I thought it was a pointless thing,” said Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at Nasa. “I’m totally unsurprised, like almost all climate scientists, that we are shooting past it at a rapid clip.
You shouldn’t ask scientists how to galvanize the world because clearly we don’t have a fucking clueGavin Schmidt

“But it was extremely galvanizing, so I was wrong about that. Maybe it is useful; maybe people do need impossible targets. You shouldn’t ask scientists how to galvanize the world because clearly we don’t have a fucking clue. People haven’t got a magic set of words to keep us to 1.5C, but we have got to keep trying.

“What matters is we have to reduce emissions. Once we stop warming the planet, the better it will be for the people and ecosystems that live here.”

The world’s decision-makers who are collectively failing to stem dangerous global heating will soon be joined by Donald Trump, who is expected to tear down climate policies and thereby, the Cat report estimates, add at least a further 0.04C to the world temperature.

Despite this bleak outlook, some do point out that the picture still looks far rosier than it did before the Paris deal, when a catastrophic temperature rise of 4C or more was foreseeable. Cheap and abundant clean energy is growing at a rapid pace, with peak oil demand expected by the end of this decade.

“Meetings like these are often perceived as talking shops,” said Alexander De Croo, the Belgian prime minister, at the Cop29 summit. “And yes, these strenuous negotiations are far from perfect. But if you compare climate policy now to a decade ago, we are in a different world.”

Still, as the world barrels past 1.5C there lie alarming uncertainties in the form of runaway climate “tipping points”, which once set off cannot be halted on human timescales, such as the Amazon turning into a savanna, the collapse of the great polar ice sheets, and huge pulses of carbon released from melting permafrost.

“1.5C is not a cliff edge, but the further we warm up the closer we get to unwittingly setting off tipping points that will bring dramatic climate consequences,” said Grahame Madge, a climate spokesman at the UK Met Office, who added that it would now be “unexpected” for 2024 to not be above 1.5C.

“We are edging ever closer to tipping points in the climate system that we won’t be able to come back from; it’s uncertain when they will arrive, they are almost like monsters in the darkness,” Madge said.

“We don’t want to encounter them so every fraction of a degree is worth fighting for. If we can’t achieve 1.5C, it will be better to get 1.6C than 1.7C, which will be better than getting 2C or more.”

Hausfather added: “We aren’t in for a good outcome either way. It’s challenging. But every tenth of a degree matters. All we know is that the more we push the climate system away from where it has been for the last few million years, there be dragons.”

As planet heads toward 2.7°C rise, tracker warns global climate action has 'flatlined'

Olivia Rosane, Common Dreams
November 14, 2024 

Earth melting (Shutterstock)

Existing policies and actions taken by world governments put the world on track for a median estimate of 2.7°C of warming by the end of the century, Climate Action Tracker revealed on Thursday at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Baku, Azerbaijan.

If global leaders make no further effort to reduce emissions, temperatures have a 33% chance of spiking past 3°C of warming by 2100 and a 10% chance of overtaking 3.6°C, which report lead author Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga called "an absolutely catastrophic level of warming."

"The combined global effect of government action on climate change has flatlined over the last three years, underscoring a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the lack of urgency on policies to cut emissions," Climate Action Tracker (CAT) announced during its annual update at 

The report attributes the lack of progress to the fact that few governments announced new climate targets in 2024 while they continued to facilitate the increased burning of fossil fuels, despite the pledge made at last year's COP28 to transition away from oil, gas, and coal.

It comes on the heels of a series of reports released ahead of or during COP29 that paint a consistent picture of escalating greenhouse gas emissions and climate extremes paired with government inaction. The U.N. Emissions Gap Report, published in late October, projected that the world was on track for 3.1°C of warming based on current policies. The World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, also published last month, found that all three main greenhouse gases reached record atmospheric levels in 2023.

"The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked."

2023 was also the hottest year on record, but the WMO's State of the Climate 2024 update for COP29 warned that 2024 was likely to surpass it. Further, global temperatures from January to September averaged 1.54°C above preindustrial levels, temporarily surpassing the 1.5°C warming limit enshrined in the Paris agreement.

"The record-breaking rainfall and flooding, rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones, deadly heat, relentless drought, and raging wildfires that we have seen in different parts of the world this year are unfortunately our new reality and a foretaste of our future," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. "We urgently need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen our monitoring and understanding of our changing climate."

Yet this is precisely what is not happening: Another study from the Global Carbon Budget released on Wednesday projected that carbon dioxide emissions from the burning of fossil fuels would increase by 0.8% from 2023 to reach 37.4 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent, a record high.

"The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked," study leader Pierre Friedlingstein, a professor at Exeter's Global Systems Institute, said in a statement. "Time is running out to meet the Paris agreement goals—and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above preindustrial levels."

The Climate Action Tracker report adds to these findings, concluding that while renewables have surged in recent years, continued reliance on fossil fuels have undermined that progress. While clean energy like wind and solar and clean transit like electric vehicles now receive double the investments of oil, gas, and coal, funding for the latter still ballooned by a factor of four between 2021 and 2022 while fossil fuel subsidies are at a record high.




"We are clearly failing to bend the curve," Gonzales-Zuniga said. "As the world edges closer to these dangerous climate thresholds, the need for immediate, stronger action to reverse this trend becomes ever more urgent."

CAT called on the world's largest emitters to lead the way. It recommended 1.5°C-aligned 2035 targets for the world's seven biggest climate polluters—China, the U.S., India, the E.U., Indonesia, Japan, and Australia—as well as the "troika" countries of Brazil, UAE, and Azerbaijan. To bring its policies in line with the 1.5°C goal, the U.S. would have to cut its total emissions (including from land-use and forests) by 65% of 2005 levels by 2030 and 80% by 2035.

This is unlikely to happen under the administration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has promised to "drill, baby, drill" as soon as he retakes the White House in January. CAT concluded that Trump's promised energy policies would raise its projection for 2100 temperatures based on current actions by 0.04°C. However, if the U.S. permanently axes its net-zero goals, and if other countries decide to follow Trump's lead, that temperature increase could be higher.

"Clearly, we won't know the full impact of the U.S. elections until President-elect Trump takes office, but there is a clean energy momentum in the U.S. now that will be difficult to stop," Bill Hare, the CEO of Climate Analytics, said in a statement. "While the Trump administration will undoubtedly do its best to throw a wrecking ball into climate action, the clean energy momentum created by President [Joe] Biden, being actioned across the country, is likely to continue at significant scale."

"The key issue is whether countries stick together and continue to move forward with action," Hare concluded. "A Trump rollback of U.S. policies, as damaging as it is, can be overcome."

Methane, a climate time bomb: On the trail of leaks in Romania

REPORTERS © FRANCE 24
Issued on: 15/11/2024 - 

Nearly three years after more than 100 countries promised to tame methane emissions, the indiscriminate leakage of this powerful greenhouse gas is still rampant. As world leaders convene in Azerbaijan for the COP29 climate summit, FRANCE 24's reporters follow the trail of methane leaks in Romania, home to one of Europe's largest oil reserves.

When we think of the climate crisis, carbon dioxide usually comes to mind. However, methane is not only the second-largest contributor to global warming, it's also 84 times more potent than CO2.

At the COP26 summit in 2021, nearly 100 countries signed on to the Global Methane Pledge, promising to limit emissions by 30 percent by 2030 compared to 2020 levels. Nearly 160 countries have since joined the movement, but have they kept their promise?

Clean Air Task Force was one of the first non-profits to put the spotlight on a common yet devastating practice: methane deliberately vented from fossil fuel facilities. FRANCE 24's reporters joined a team of so-called “methane hunters” on a mission in Romania, where the NGO has reported high emissions escaping from oil fields.

Thanks to a new EU regulation set to come into force in May 2025, it will soon be harder for leaks to go unpunished. Companies will be forced to monitor and limit their emissions or face penalties. So far, industry initiatives in Romania remain limited – the country is home to ageing infrastructure prone to leaks – but the work of activists is beginning to pay off.

12:42

Is Argentina’s Milei on brink of leaving Paris climate accord?


By AFP
November 15, 2024

A CONFEDERACY OF DUNCES

Argentine President Javier Milei (C) attended a gala put on by US President-elect Donald Trump (2nd from right), alongside Elon Musk (2nd from left) - Copyright Argentinian Presidency/AFP Handout

Sonia AVALOS

Argentina’s abrupt snub of COP29 climate talks in Azerbaijan has raised alarm that President Javier Milei — an ally to US President-elect Donald Trump — could be looking at pulling out of the Paris accord.

Such a move would align Milei’s climate change skepticism with the position held by Trump — and deal a blow to the 2015 international agreement that aims to curb global warming.

“If Milei’s government decides to exit the Paris Agreement, we would be faced with huge legal and constitutional implications,” said Maximiliano Ferraro, an Argentine lawmaker with the opposition Civic Coalition.

Already, Milei — a populist who has taken radical measures to cut inflation at home — has downgraded his environment ministry to a sub-secretariat and eliminated a fund for the protection of native forests.

Argentina’s delegation expected at the COP29, the UN climate talks happening in Azerbaijan this week, suddenly pulled out, an environment ministry source confirmed, without giving details behind the decision.

Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein told The Washington Post that “we are reevaluating our strategy on all climate-change-related issues” but added that Buenos Aires had not made a decision at this time to leave the Paris accord.

On Thursday, Milei attended a gala at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida, alongside the world’s richest man Elon Musk. At the event, Milei hailed Trump’s “greatest political comeback in history.”

Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement in 2017, during his first time as president.

Current US President Joe Biden brought his country back into it in 2021, but Trump has vowed to reverse that order when he takes over the White House in January.

On Monday and Tuesday, Biden and Milei will attend a G20 summit in Brazil that will discuss international efforts to limit climate change, but the US leader is seen as a lame duck leader at the gathering.



– ‘Bad signal’ –



Greenpeace Argentina said the country’s withdrawal from the Azerbaijan talks was a “bad signal.”

Ferraro, the opposition lawmaker, said if an exit from the Paris Agreement followed, “we would be entering a foggy path of isolation.”

Milei has a record of putting environmental considerations well below economic ones.

In June, he stated: “Nature must serve humans and their wellbeing, not the other way around.”

He added that “the main environmental problem we have is extreme poverty, and that is only solved if we use our resources.”

Oscar Soria, head of The Common Initiative, a New York-based group campaigning for financial reform to promote biodiversity, told AFP “there is a growing concern about the possibility that Argentina exits the Paris Agreement.”

But he pointed out that such a move “cannot be done by a simple decree” — it would require approval by the Argentine Congress.

Argentina ratified the Paris accord in 2016, meaning any change would enter constitutional territory.

It would also run counter to “solid legislation on climate action” in the country, Soria said.

“If he goes there, we are ready for a legal battle.”

Soria added that “with or without Argentina, global climate action will continue. That was shown in the United States when Donald Trump took the decision to withdraw from the Paris Agreement in 2017. A lot of extreme-right leaders have underestimated the Paris Agreement.”

Guillermo Folguera, a biologist at Argentina’s National Scientific and Technical Research Council, said there was hope that NGOs could curb government policies that look at the environment “only as a way to generate assets and not as a space for life.”

Ferraro suggested that Milei’s moves could be a way to ingratiate himself with Trump.

“I wonder if it’s just a show put on by President Milei to offer this up as a sacrificial ritual in his get-together with US President-elect Donald Trump?”

Trump’s climate impact ‘recoverable’: researchers


By AFP
November 14, 2024

Donald Trump is expected to retreat from international efforts to limit global warming - Copyright AFP/File Brendan Smialowski

Kelly MACNAMARA

US president-elect Donald Trump’s expected climate rollbacks will likely have a “small” impact on global warming, as long as other countries resist the temptation to slacken their own carbon-cutting efforts, new research found Thursday.

Trump, who will return to the White House in January, has pledged to reverse the green policies of President Joe Biden and could pull the United States out of international efforts to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial times.

This year is almost certain to be the hottest on record, with rising temperatures unleashing a deadly torrent of floods, heatwaves and storms across the world.

In a new analysis of countries’ climate plans, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) project said Trump’s potential retreat from the green transition could increase global temperatures by around 0.04C by the end of the century.

Bill Hare of Climate Analytics, one of the groups behind the tracker, said the effect could be “really quite small”.

“The damage it would do emission-wise to global climate action, if just confined to the United States and over four to five years, is probably recoverable,” he said.

But he said the impact could be significantly greater if other countries use shrinking ambitions from the US, the world’s second biggest emitter, as an excuse to slow walk their own climate actions.

That will become clear in the coming weeks and months, with nations expected to submit new and improved emissions-reduction commitments to the United Nations by February.

Hare said that a “fundamental” question will be the reaction of China, the biggest greenhouse gas emitter.



– ‘Flat-lined’ –



The CAT project calculated that the current crop of climate promises would see the world warm 2.6C by century’s end, with very little change in the outlook in the past three years suggesting that government action has “flat-lined”.

In a separate report released Thursday, CAT looked at the plans of the biggest greenhouse gas polluters.

The US, which accounts for the largest share of historical greenhouse gas pollution, has said it will cut emissions from all sectors in half by 2030 from 2005 levels.

CAT said US emissions would need to drop 65 percent this decade and 80 percent by 2035 to align with the 1.5C limit.

China, which has yet to outline a pledge covering emissions from all sectors, would need to slash carbon pollution 66 percent by 2030 from 2023 levels and 78 percent by 2035.

“If one looks at the rapid drop in emissions needed, it is reasonable to ask: How could this be possible?” Hare said of the China projections.

“The short answer is it’s mainly because we can decarbonise the power sector nearly everywhere, quite quickly. And the first thing to do is to get out of coal.”

The report comes after research published on Wednesday found that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels rose again this year to a new record, meaning the cuts needed in the future are even sharper if the world is to meet its warming target.

Emissions of CO2 from coal, which account for 41 percent of the global total from fossil fuels, ticked up 0.2 percent this year, according to the projections by the Global Carbon Project, with decreases in the US and European Union and increases in China, India and the rest of the world.

 

Mountain lions coexist with outdoor recreationists by taking the night shift

How mountain lions in Los Angeles are adjusting to avoid human interactions

University of California - Davis

 

image: 

P65 walks with her kittens. In a UC Davis study, female mountain lions were generally more active during the day and closer to sunrise, perhaps because they are constrained by avoiding male mountain lions and not able to respond as strongly to recreation.

view more 

Credit: National Park Service

Mountain lions in greater Los Angeles are proactively shifting their activity to avoid interacting with cyclists, hikers, joggers and other recreationists, finds a study from the University of California, Davis, Cal Poly Pomona and the National Park Service. 

The study, published Nov. 15 in the journal Biological Conservation, found that mountain lions living in areas with higher levels of human recreation were more nocturnal than lions in more remote regions who were more active at dawn and dusk. The authors said their findings offer a hopeful example of human-wildlife coexistence amid a large, dense human population.

“People are increasingly enjoying recreating in nature, which is fantastic,” said lead author Ellie Bolas, a Ph.D. candidate in the UC Davis Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology. “This flexibility we see in mountain lion activity is what allows us to share these natural areas together. Mountain lions are doing the work so that coexistence can happen.” 

Mountain lions prefer to avoid people, but in a metro area of more than 18 million people, natural areas inhabited by mountain lions and other wildlife are also heavily used by recreationists. To learn whether and how lions were adjusting their activity in response to recreationists, the study authors monitored the movements of 22 mountain lions living in the Santa Monica Mountains and the surrounding region between 2011 and 2018.

The lions were captured and fitted with global positioning system (GPS) and accelerometer collars as part of a long-term study conducted by biologists at Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area, a unit of the National Park Service. The authors analyzed the collar data and quantified human recreation in the area using a global database of GPS-tracked activities that users opted to make public.

“These results are really important in that they show how humans may be affecting wildlife in less obvious ways than killing them with vehicles,” said Seth Riley, branch chief for wildlife at the park. “The study also continues to drive home the amazing fact that a population of a large felid predator persists in one of the largest urban areas in the world. That would not be possible if mountain lions weren’t able to adjust to human activity in ways like this.”

How mountain lions respond to more humans

The study showed that Griffith Park hosted the highest levels of recreational activity, while the Santa Susana Mountains and Los Padres National Forest were least active. How did mountain lions respond? 

The least nocturnal mountain lion was female P13 in the central and western Santa Monica Mountains. Females, in general, were found to be more active closer to sunrise and during daylight hours as compared to males. The authors say this may be so they can avoid overlapping with male lions, who pose a threat to them and their kittens.

 The most nocturnal were two male mountain lions living in small, isolated natural areas with many trails, high levels of recreation, and surrounded by intense development and freeways. Both individuals occupied two of the smallest home ranges ever recorded for adult males. P41, the study’s most nocturnal lion, lived in the Verdugo Mountains, a small mountain range spanning several cities.

The famous “Hollywood Cat,” P22, preferred to stay out of the limelight. P22, who managed to cross two busy freeways as a young lion to earn fame, hearts and a home in active Griffith Park, was the second most nocturnal lion studied. He died in 2022 when he was roughly 12 years old — one of the oldest cats in the study.

The authors said the urban experiences of P41, P22 and others in the study illustrate how, when faced with increased human activity, mountain lions actively seek to avoid people rather than becoming habituated to them. 

How people can help

Still, the authors note, this doesn’t mean mountain lions should do all the work. People can help protect themselves and mountain lions by being aware that dawn or dusk is prime time for mountain lion activity. They can also be extra cautious when driving at night, when mountain lions in populated areas are more likely to be active. 

Mountain lions in the Los Angeles area deal with many challenges — busy roadways where they’re often killed, wildfires, rodenticide exposure, low genetic diversity and fragmented habitat. 

“Even something as innocuous as recreation can add to these other stressors we’re bringing into their lives, potentially by altering the amount of energy they have to expend for hunting and other needs,” Bolas said. “But we can feel a sense of optimism that they are flexible in the timing of their activity. Coexistence is happening, and it’s in large part because of what mountain lions are doing.” 

The study’s additional co-authors include Adam Pingatore and Daniel Blumstein of UCLA, Maya Mathur of Harvard Westlake High School, Jeff Sikich of the National Park Service, Justine Smith of UC Davis, John Benson of University of Nebraska and Rachel Blakey of California State Polytechnic University, Pomona, and UCLA.

The study was supported through funding from the National Science Foundation, National Park Service, La Kretz Center for California Conservation at UCLA, and the UC Davis Graduate Group in Ecology Fellowship.

  

Ellie Bolas, a PhD Candidate at UC Davis, uses radio telemetry to locate research animals in Santa Monica Mountains National Recreation Area.

One of P13's kittens enjoys a sunrise meal in the Santa Monica Mountains near Los Angeles, California in 2014. P13 was among the least nocturnal lions studied.

P41, the most nocturnal mountain lion in the study, lived in the Verdugo Mountains near Los Angeles, an area with high levels of human recreation.

P22, the well-known "Hollywood Cat," was among the mountain lions of Los Angeles who shifted his activities to be more nocturnal in response to humans.

Journal

Biological Conservation

DOI

10.1016/j.biocon.2024.110812 

Method of Research

Observational study

Subject of Research

Animals

Article Title

Human recreation influences activity of a large carnivore in an urban landscape

Article Publication Date

15-Nov-2024

 

Thawing Russia-US Relations?

Whether Trump spoke with Putin or not, it’s high time that the U.S. and Russian leaders communicate to resolve the existential crisis over Ukraine.

by Ray McGovern Posted onNovember 14, 2024

This originally appeared at Consortium News.

A former and future U.S. president talked with Vladimir Putin last Thursday! At least that is what The Washington Post reported today.

In a highly detailed account, the Post wrote:

“During the call, which Trump took from his resort in Florida, he advised the Russian president not to escalate the war in Ukraine and reminded him of Washington’s sizable military presence in Europe, said a person familiar with the call, who, like others interviewed for this story, spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter.

The two men discussed the goal of peace on the European continent and Trump expressed an interest in follow-up conversations to discuss ‘the resolution of Ukraine’s war soon,’ one of the people said.”

Except on Monday, Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, denied it ever happened.

As a follow-up, the Post was forced to report:

“Peskov called the story ‘completely untrue’ … ‘This is the most obvious example of the quality of the information that is now published, sometimes even in fairly respected publications. This is completely untrue. This is pure fiction, this is simply false information,’ he told the Russian news agency Interfax.”

Someone is lying here. The Post said it had five unnamed sources confirming the call and providing extensive detail of what was supposedly discussed.  Trump has said nothing so far about whether such a call took place. But on Monday he posted a short Fox video on his Truth Social account showing the world leaders he has spoken to so far and Putin is not among them. Volodymyr Zelenksy of Ukraine is.

A Long- Time Coming

It has been two and a half years since a conversation between U.S. and Russian presidents.

That last conversation was held on Feb. 12, 2022. It ended badly – the readout showing there was no room for compromise, no room for a “deal” to stave off war in Ukraine.

The U.S. would not reverse its stance on inviting Ukraine into NATO; and went back on an earlier undertaking not to put offensive missiles in Ukraine. The Russians saw their core national security interests at stake, just as the U.S. had core interests in preventing Cuba from installing offensive missiles in 1962.

According to the Russian readout, Putin made clear that Joe Biden “did not really address non-expansion of NATO, or non-deployment of strike weapons systems on Ukrainian territory.” Twelve days later, the Russians launched what they call their Special Military Operation.

The Biden administration knew this would happen. None other than NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg let that cat out of the bag (no doubt inadvertently) in a speech to the EU Parliament on Sept. 7, 2023:

“Putin’s precondition for not invading Ukraine was: No Ukraine in NATO. We rejected that. So he went to war to prevent more NATO.”

Context: Reading the Readout

The Kremlin placed the readout of the Feb. 12, 2022 summit-call squarely in the context of a key Putin-Biden telephone conversation nine weeks earlier on Dec. 7, 2021. That virtual summit had been arranged abruptly, at Putin’s urgent request.

And so it came to pass that Biden was at home on holiday in Delaware – without his minders. As things turned out, he apparently reasoned that agreeing not to put offensive missiles in Ukraine made sense, given the threat Putin saw in that (and the fact that the US already had such emplacements in Romania and Poland).

The Russian readout from that Dec. 30, 2021 telephone call stated: “Joseph Biden emphasized that Washington had no intention of deploying offensive strike missiles in Ukraine.” [Emphasis added.]

Biden administration officials, with the full cooperation of Establishment media, were able to obfuscate and suppress this key undertaking made by Biden when he was ‘home alone’, so to speak.

There was virtually no public reporting or comment. The only exception was former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine, John Herbst, an ardent Ukraine fan, who quickly and quietly dismissed the readout as nothing new.

Dec. 7, 2021: U.S. President Joe Biden, on screen during video call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. (Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)

Signs of Thaw 

A lot of water has flowed down the Dnieper River since February 2022. Much of it will be frozen thick on Jan. 20 when Donald Trump takes office. There are, however, already some tentative signs of a coming thaw in relations between the U.S. and Russia.

On Thursday, Putin publicly congratulated Trump on his victory, praising his “manly” response to the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania. On Sunday, Kremlin spokesman Peskov told an interviewer there were “positive” signs for improved relations under a Trump presidency.

“Trump talked during his campaign about how he sees everything through deals, that he can make a deal that will lead everyone to peace. At least he talks about peace, not about confrontation and the desire to inflict a strategic defeat on Russia,” Peskov said.

Tempering expectations, Putin responded cautiously to a question at the Valdai conference in Sochi on Nov. 7. Asked what he expects from a second Trump administration, Putin replied, “I don’t know what will happen now. I have no idea.”

On Ukraine, nothing good will happen until Biden/Blinken/Sullivan can admit that what they have been saying for a year and a half is not true. Putin has not “already lost.” It is just the opposite. And his terms are correspondingly tough. On that basis, and only on that basis, will he be prepared “to deal.”

US ‘Exceptionalism’

Biden was fond of quoting former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright’s oft-stated belief that the U.S. was not only “exceptional” but also “indispensable.” It seems Biden and his acolytes, particularly Secretary of State Antony Blinken, may actually believe that.

What most observers have long since forgotten is that Putin called out Barack Obama on that very issue – precisely at a time when there was hope for increasing mutual trust. Putin placed a revealing op-ed about all this in The New York Times on Sept. 12, 2013.

In short, Putin persuaded Syria to let its chemical weapons be destroyed under U.N. inspection, and thus pulled Obama’s chestnuts out of the fire when Obama agreed.

Obama later admitted that all of his advisers insisted he had to wage war on Syria because of a chemical attack near Damascus during the civil war there. It was a false-flag attack, and he sensed that. Obama was reluctant to start yet another overt war – this one on Syria. He told a lot of this story to Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic.

Syria’s chemical weapons were destroyed and war was avoided. And not only that. The possibilities had increased perceptively for growing trust, only to be dashed when Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland and friends mounted a coup d’etat in Kyiv just six months later.

Here’s the last paragraph of the NYT op-ed by Putin on Sept 12, 2013. As we shall see, there are clear echoes of this in Putin’s talk on Friday at Valdai, 11 years later:

“My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States’ policy is ‘what makes America different. It’s what makes us exceptional.’ It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord’s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.”

The Valdai Message 

Putin addressing the Valdai Club on Friday. (President of Russia)

Is there a chance for resuscitation of this “growing trust” from 11 years ago? In his Valdai presentation Friday, Putin made abundantly clear what the new international situation – the new balance of power – will now require, especially as a very large part of the world is already in BRICS and arrayed against a lily white, Western minority.

Putin’s words on Friday are as interesting now as his New York Times op-ed was 11 years ago:

“The Western-centric world has embraced certain clichés and stereotypes concerning the global hierarchy. There is supposedly a developed world, progressive society and some universal civilization that everyone should strive to join – while at the other end, there are backward, uncivilized nations, barbarians. Their job is to listen unquestioningly to what they are told from the outside, and to act on the instructions issued by those who are allegedly superior to them in this civilizational hierarchy.

It is clear that this concept works for a crude colonial approach, for the exploitation of the global majority. The problem is that this essentially racist ideology has taken root in the minds of many, creating a serious mental obstacle to general harmonious growth. [Emphasis added.]

The modern world tolerates neither arrogance nor wanton disregard for others being different. To build normal relationships, above all, one needs to listen to the other party and try to understand their logic and cultural background, rather than expecting them to think and act the way you think they should based on your beliefs about them. Otherwise, communication turns into an exchange of clichés and flinging labels, and politics devolves into a conversation of the deaf.”

It is possible to hope that, on Ukraine at least, U.S.-Russian talks can quickly move beyond cliches and labels, to stop the killing. Mutual trust is also possible, but it will take some time to rebuild it.

Perhaps it helps to recall that it almost happened just 13 years ago.

— Joe Lauria contributed to this report.

Ray McGovern works with Tell the Word, a publishing arm of the ecumenical Church of the Saviour in inner-city Washington. His 27 years as a C.I.A. analyst included leading the Soviet Foreign Policy Branch and conducting the morning briefings of the President’s Daily Brief. In retirement he co-founded Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS).

Climate Action Tracker: Global warming projections flatline with no improvement since 2021


Climate Action Tracker said Thursday there has been a three-year standstill in global warming projections, with no improvement since 2021. based on the aggregate effect of current climate policies, the world is on a path toward 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

Nov. 14 (UPI) -- Climate Action Tracker said Thursday there has been a three-year standstill in global warming projections, with no improvement since 2021.

Based on the aggregate effect of current climate policies, the world is on a path toward 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming, the report said.

"Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, our annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021," Climate Action Tracker said in a statement.

CAT said 2024 has been marked by minimal overall progress on the global warming climate crisis.

"This three-year standstill underscores a critical disconnect between the reality of climate change and the urgency that governments are giving to the policies needed to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions, driving global warming at a rate of close to 0.3 degrees Celsius per decade," the group said.

CAT's annual climate report said while Donald Trump's election will impact projected temperature levels due to expected rollbacks of climate change policies, it's uncertain to what extent.

"It could add 0.04 degrees Celsius of warming by 2100 to our current policy estimate of 2.7 degrees Celsius (assuming the rollback of policies is limited to the United States) to a few tenths of a degree to our optimistic scenario of 1.9 degrees Celsius (assuming the U.S. net zero target is permanently removed)," CAT's statement said. "This would be very damaging to the prospects of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius"

Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare said the full impact of Trump's election won't be known until he takes office, but added there is a "clear energy momentum in the U.S. now that will be difficult to stop."

"Clearly, we won't know the full impact of the US elections until President-elect Trump takes office, but there is a clean energy momentum in the US now that will be difficult to stop," Hare said. "While the Trump administration will undoubtedly do its best to throw a wrecking ball into climate action, the clean energy momentum created by President [Joe] Biden, being actioned across the country, is likely to continue at significant scale."

The CAT global climate crisis update said while clean energy investments are now double those for fossil fuels, fossil fuel subsidies "remain at an all-time high and funding for fossil fuel-prolonging projects quadrupled between 2021 and 2022."

CAT said a peak of global warming emissions is expected by the end of the decade, but projections lack the steep decline necessary to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals.

That emissions peak is also expected to be at a much higher level than three years ago, according to the CAT report.

"We are clearly failing to bend the curve. As the world edges closer to these dangerous climate thresholds, the need for immediate, stronger action to reverse this trend becomes ever more urgent," said CAT report lead author Sofia Gonzales-Zuniga of Climate Analytics in a statement.

The report focused on climate polices in the seven largest sources of global warming emissions plus the UAE, Azerbaijan and Brazil.

China, the United States, India, the European Union, Indonesia, Japan and Australia are the largest sources of emissions.

British consumer group launches $3.8B 'abuse of dominance' class action against Apple over iCloud

Nov. 14, 2024 / UPI

A British consumer advocacy group launched a $3.8 billion anti-trust class action against Apple on behalf of its 40 million United Kingdom customers alleging the U.S. tech giant is fleecing them by locking them in to its cloud storage ecosystem which comes with "rip off" charges. File Photo by Keizo Mori/UPI | License Photo

Nov. 14 (UPI) -- A British consumer advocacy group launched a $3.8 billion antitrust class action against Apple on behalf of its 40 million United Kingdom customers alleging the U.S. tech giant is fleecing them by locking them into its cloud storage ecosystem which comes with "rip off" charges.

The not-for-profit Which? said in a news release Wednesday it was seeking compensation for consumers from Apple for abusing the dominant position of its so-called "iCloud" data storage solution built into every one of its mobile-connected devices.

"We believe that Apple breached competition law and it has cost U.K. consumers millions of pounds, so we are taking legal action against Apple to recover the overpayments made on iCloud services obtained on or after Oct. 1, 2015," said Which? chief executive Anabel Hoult.

"By bringing this claim, Which? is showing big corporations like Apple that they cannot rip off U.K. consumers without facing repercussions. Taking this legal action means we can help consumers to get the redress that they are owed, deter similar behavior in the future and create a better, more competitive market."

Which? said its "opt-out" claim would argue that Apple violated British competition law by steering customers towards its proprietary iCloud service and by not clearly informing them of alternatives, or how to use them on its iOS devices.

"Which? believes that Apple iPhone and iPad iOS users have had little choice but to use Apple's own iCloud service, and therefore Apple can charge users more than if it had to compete with rival cloud storage services," it said.

The group added that the monthly charges for the service embedded into every Apple device, which range from $1.25 for 50GB of space to $69.46 for 12TB, are unfair because users aren't offered alternatives.

"iPhone users are tied to iCloud because they cannot store or back up all of their phone's data with a third-party provider, as Apple doesn't allow certain data to be stored other than on iCloud," said Which?

"The convenience of being 'locked-in' to this service over time could come at a significant cost -- in terms of price, quality and choice. With Apple being such a dominant player in the phone and tablet market, this behavior also creates a barrier for any new cloud service providers."

Which? said the ever-increasing volume of data generated by mobile and tablet users meant it was imperative that consumers were able to access competitive cloud storage alternatives on their devices.

Eligible Apple customers, who would be automatically "opted in" unless they ask to be excluded, include any U.K. resident who "obtained iCloud services" on any device running iOS -- iPhone, iPad, iPod Touch or any other Apple-supplied iOS-powered mobile device -- since the Consumer Rights Act became law in fall 2015.

A specialist judicial body called the Competition Appeal Tribunal will have to give the green light for the case to proceed, however, Which? said it would drop its claim at any time if Apple "did the right thing" and refunded customers and opened up iCloud to allow users a real choice.

Apple said the allegations were untrue and that it would fight the suit.

"We reject any suggestion that our iCloud practices are anti-competitive and will vigorously defend against any legal claim otherwise," the company said in a statement.

"Our users are not required to use iCloud, and many rely on a wide range of third-party alternatives for data storage. In addition, we work hard to make data transfer as easy as possible -- whether it's to iCloud or another service.

Apple also pointed out that prices of the other cloud storage providers used by many of its customers were broadly comparable to iCloud and that almost half of Apple customers did not subscribe to the paid-for option because they did not require additional storage, or did not want the additional cost.

The Which? action comes alongside a similar $1.9 billion "abuse of dominance" claim dating back to 2021 alleging 19.6 million Brits were overcharged for app purchases with a one-day pre-trial review due to be held in London on Friday after the CAT ruled last week that the case against Apple Inc. and Apple Distribution International could proceed.

The trial itself is scheduled to open Jan. 13 and last for seven weeks.

Brought by King's College academic Rachael Kent under the 1998 Competition Act prohibiting abuse of a dominant position, the proposed collective proceedings combine standalone claims against Apple Inc. and Apple Distribution International for loss and damage caused by alleged breaches of statutory duty by infringing the Functioning of the European Union Treaty.

The CAT also has cases pending against Facebook, Google, Steam and major British cell phone service providers.

Commercial law specialist Toby Starr of Humphries Kerstetter told the BBC that the Which? suit was yet another case among a "growing tide of large class actions against Big Tech" which he said had until now "operated without sufficient constraint."

"Although most of these claims are in their infancy and take a long time to resolve, there will be more decisions coming out over the next couple of years and there will be settlements -- these will start to affect the tech giants' businesses," said Starr.

 

China's bullish pet economy shines at import expo

Xinhua | Updated: 2024-11-11

A Japanese pet products booth attracts visitors at the 7th China International Import Expo consumer goods exhibition area, in Shanghai, Nov 7, 2024. [Photo/VCG]

SHANGHAI - At the exhibition area of the seventh China International Import Expo (CIIE), a large Japanese-style pavilion featuring two eye-catching giant cartoon mascots has drawn the attention of many curious onlookers.

A black-and-white "cow cat" and a gray-and-white "cheese-colored cat" with glasses lounge atop the structure, playfully sticking out their tongues. Beneath them is a 400-square-meter display space.

The huge "cat's home" is the pet pavilion set up by the Japan External Trade Organization (JETRO).

Aiming to tap into China's growing pet market, 54 Japanese companies and organizations related to the pet industry are showcasing 850 products and services here, covering all aspects of pet care -- from clothing and food to housing and travel for cats, dogs and more.

For many of these businesses and products, the CIIE marks their first appearance outside Japan.

Leading the pack is Buddy Cloud Inc, a Japanese startup that views China as a crucial "incubation hub" for innovation. The company introduced a pet urine-test-strip paired with an online consultation service, which was launched in Japan in August and is now making its international debut at the expo.

Priced at around 80 yuan ($11.2) per at-home test, it allows users to upload photos of the results to a mobile application to receive readings on protein levels, white blood cells, glucose and pH.

"Chinese consumers are highly adept at using online services, and at-home pet testing could see faster adoption in the Chinese market," said Shun Fujii, CEO of the company.

Celebrating its seventh consecutive year at the CIIE, JETRO has observed closely the evolution of the Chinese consumer market.

"We noticed that the average age of pet cats and dogs in China is between three and four years old, while in Japan, it's between six and seven years," said Hiroshi Takayama, deputy president of JETRO Shanghai. This suggests that many people in China are just beginning to adopt pets, and the pet market is still in its growth phase.

According to the organization, Chinese customers' interest has expanded from products like sake, plum wine, shochu and specialty soy sauces for various cuisines, to outdoor gear for activities like skiing and camping, and now to pet products and services -- all reflecting Chinese consumers' growing pursuit of wellness and an enhanced quality of life.

According to an industry report, the number of pet dogs in China reached 51.75 million in 2023, while pet cats numbered 69.8 million. The urban pet (dogs and cats) consumption market grew to 279.3 billion yuan in 2023, up 3.2 percent from 2022, and is projected to climb to 361.3 billion yuan by 2026.

Zhou Ting, a visitor from Shanghai, who bought a pet toothbrush at last year's CIIE, was once again amazed by this year's diverse array of products.

Her 3-year-old son and their 7-year-old corgi are best friends, celebrating birthdays, camping and traveling together -- even wearing matching coats. "I hope my dog can stay healthy and happy, and keep my child company for as long as possible," Zhou said.

Like Zhou, a growing number of Chinese people are embracing the companionship of pets, treating them like "children" and wanting them to enjoy a similar lifestyle.

Korean company Young In Bio is sniffing out opportunities in the promising market of pet food resembling human food.

During this year's CIIE, the company debuted specialized instant ramen for pet dogs in the Chinese market, catering to pet owners who want their pets to enjoy the same types of food they do.

"We've brought five flavors of ramen, including chicken, vegan, seafood, cheese and black bean sauce, which have been incredibly popular," said a staff member surnamed Yin. "Today is the last day of the expo, and we're down to just these last few packs in only two of the flavors."

"Since the Republic of Korea is known for its ramen culture, we thought this would add a sense of ritual for pet owners' daily lives and be effective for online marketing, especially on platforms like Instagram," said Choi In Jeong, the company's representative director.

"Last year, we entered the US market, exporting over a dozen containers of products within a year," Choi said. "And we dream bigger in the Chinese market."

The company is expected to formally enter the Chinese market early next year and establish a production line in China, which will further reduce product prices.

Amano Shinya, the president of JETRO Shanghai, believes that Chinese consumer demand is becoming increasingly diverse, with growth across niche sectors. For companies, accurately capturing market demand is essential.

This, he added, underscores the significance of China's commitment to holding the CIIE and continually expanding its opening up.