OPINION | On COVID-19, what would Lougheed have do

 CBC Thu., December 10, 2020, 

This column is an opinion from political scientist Duane Bratt, of Mount Royal University.

It is an intriguing parlour game to make historical comparisons with current events and speculate how historical figures would handle a current problem. The magnitude of COVID-19 invites such comparisons.

Preston Manning recently compared how Albertans responded to the Great Depression and World War II with our response to COVID-19. Ken Boessenkool wondered how premier Ralph Klein would have responded to the coronavirus pandemic.

While these comparisons are insightful, so far nobody has asked what premier Peter Lougheed would do if it were his government that was confronted with the health and economic challenges of COVID-19.

Lougheed remains Alberta's most revered former premier, so it is important to speculate about how he would have responded. These historical comparisons may be a "what if" game, but they also provide important insights into how different political leadership approaches respond to crises.

It is a way to apply counterfactual analysis to policy decisions. For example, comparing former Premier Alison Redford's response to the Calgary/High River flood in 2013 with Premier Rachel Notley's response to the 2016 Fort McMurray fire.

Lougheed would have handled it better

I argue that Lougheed, because of a combination of his individual qualities and the structural conditions of his time in office, would have handled COVID-19 in a much better fashion than Premier Jason Kenney.

For example, I can imagine Lougheed instituting a provincewide mask mandate, utilizing the federal tracing app and, if cases spiked, imposing an economic lockdown (but with financial compensation for business owners and workers to supplement federal programs).

Kenney's approach, as Lisa Young and I previously argued, has been marked by too much emphasis on political and partisan calculations. In contrast, I believe that Lougheed would have responded with a focus on mitigating the disastrous health impact, while at the same time taking steps to protect the economy, business owners and workers.

Lougheed could rely on his strong personal qualities.

Before becoming premier, he had built up a set of accomplishments in a variety of fields: athletics, academics, business and law.

He took over a moribund Progressive Conservative party in 1965 and within two elections was premier of Alberta. He was also highly charismatic and empathetic.

Lougheed, like Kenney, would have emphasized personal responsibility, but his persuasion powers were greater. Albertans, who nicknamed him Saint Peter, would have trusted him more, listened and followed his lead.

And for those not inclined to be influenced, like anti-maskers, Lougheed would have responded more quickly and assertively in condemning their behaviour.

Relationship with health sector better under Lougheed

Lougheed would also have had a better relationship with the Alberta health sector.

Kenney, unlike most other Canadian political leaders, never received a COVID-19 bump, due in large part to the fact his government continued to fight doctors, nurses and support workers in the midst of a health pandemic.

Lougheed greatly increased spending in the health-care sector as premier. Hospitals were built, medical schools expanded and additional doctors and nurses hired with increasing wages.

It is difficult to imagine the sorts of damaging leaks and rumours of a strained relationship with Dr. Deena Hinshaw, the chief medical officer of health, and Alberta Health Services occurring in a Lougheed government.

It's likely that Lougheed would be more receptive to the advice of medical professionals; although, like Kenney, he wouldn't allow them to dictate policy.

I would also anticipate more co-operation with the Trudeau government.

Lougheed was certainly not afraid to confront former prime minister Pierre Trudeau, as he did with the National Energy Program and the initial negotiations around the repatriation of the Constitution. He set a template for Kenney's fight with Justin Trudeau over energy policy and equalization.

Sean Kilpatrick/The Canadian Press

However, Lougheed, to a much stronger degree than Kenney, also knew when it was time to co-operate. Lougheed-Trudeau reached an accord on the NEP, and Lougheed eventually signed on to the 1982 Constitution.

To be fair, there have been moments, especially in spring 2020, when Kenney dialled down the anti-Trudeau rhetoric. The Kenney government is also working with the Trudeau government on vaccine rollout and field hospitals.

Unfortunately, the personal animus that Kenney and some members of his government feel toward Justin Trudeau periodically reappears — for instance, when members of his cabinet derisively referred to the federal COVID-19 tracing app as the "Trudeau app."

Structural factors benefit Lougheed

To be sure, Lougheed benefited from structural factors that gave him greater freedom of movement than the Kenney government.

One of the reasons that Kenney's approach has been so partisan is that Alberta is now a competitive two-party system. Kenney needs to worry about the NDP in the 2023 election.

We are also only a few years removed from the PC-Wildrose battles that contributed to the NDP's surprising election victory in 2015. Therefore, Kenney needs to be concerned about splinter movements on his right flank that could allow another NDP victory.

In contrast, Lougheed essentially vanquished Social Credit in the 1971 election (although remnants of the farther right would continue to exist throughout most of Lougheed's tenure).

Following his 1971 election, Lougheed would win over 90 per cent of seats and typically exceed 60 per cent in the popular vote in subsequent elections.

Lougheed, who put just as much emphasis on the "progressive" as the "conservative" in the Progressive Conservative party, was a true centrist. He could afford to respond to COVID-19 with less attention to partisanship than Kenney.

Lougheed also benefited from a strong economy throughout his time in office.

The oil shocks of the early 1970s flooded money into the provincial treasury. Even in the immediate aftermath of the NEP, Alberta was generating budget surpluses and could set some money aside in the Heritage Savings Fund.

Financial situation much worse today

In contrast, when Kenney was elected in 2019, he inherited a budget deficit of over $6 billion and $60 billion in accumulated debt.

Because of COVID, Alberta is now projecting a $21-billion deficit and almost $100 billion in debt.

While Alberta is still in a relatively strong fiscal position compared with other provinces, it is in a substantially worse position than at any time in the Lougheed years.

Thus, while Lougheed would have been able to provide stronger economic support programs for businesses and workers if he brought in more restrictive lockdown measures, Kenney has to be much more sensitive regarding the economic effects of his COVID-19 response because of the continuous downturn in Alberta's economy since 2014.

Historical comparisons are a useful exercise to show what other policy pathways could occur.

If Peter Lougheed had been confronted with COVID-19, he would have likely responded with calls for personal responsibility (but with more success because of his higher level of trust among Albertans), co-operation with the federal government, co-operation with the health-care sector and likely more restrictive provisions (but with financial compensation). This is a very different response than what we are currently seeing.

But despite the obvious differences in approach, that doesn't mean Jason Kenney wouldn't benefit, when struggling with policy responses to the COVID crisis, to ask himself, what would Lougheed do?

This column is an opinion. For more information about our commentary section, please readour FAQ.

Lougheed Spanks Klein

Klein's lack of planning leaves oil development in 'a mess'
Former Alberta premier Peter Lougheed has sharply criticized the government of departing Premier Ralph Klein for failing to properly plan oilsands growth, creating a "mess" that is depriving the province of royalty revenues. The Klein government's strategy to encourage unparalleled investment in the oilsands sparked an overheated economy due to several concurrent projects in the Fort McMurray area, Lougheed said during an interview with The Herald.

Planning was never Ralphs strong suit. Flying by the seat of his pants was.

Klein's legacy: for richer, for poorer
For a politician who many credit with building the most successful economy on the continent, Alberta Premier Ralph Klein is spending his final days in office looking glum. His speeches, once powerful, have been defensive. He is under attack for creating so much of a good thing the province is reeling from labour shortages, inflation and a lack of infrastructure. Even Ralphbucks, a $1.4-billion giveaway to Albertans last year that was supposed to bolster his legacy, was derided in the province as irresponsible.

Klein had only one plan ever, to cut budgets, cut public services etc. in order to slay the momentary fiscal dragon of debt and deficit. A creation of his own government which he inherited from Don Getty.

It was a moment in history that saw provincial governments and the federal government face the same downturn in the economy. Between 1993-1995 the temporary down turn allowed the Neo-Cons to gain strength as 'the new' political ideology of capitalist governments and the ruling parties in Canada. Nowhere moreso than in Alberta under Ralph. It even got coined the Ralph Revolution, though it was more a Reformation.

Ironic since the Lougheed Progressive Conservatives actually were progressive in their day. They saw the Socreds as incapable of dealing with Alberta's need to expand and take advantage of its petro wealth. Thus the Lougheed Party was a creation of classical liberals, Calgary Liberals, Edmonton Liberals, economic liberals, liberals liberals liberals everywhere. The self destruction of the Socreds was hastened with the departure of Prestons daddy; Ernest and his annointment of Lougheed in the backrooms of Calgary.

Lougheed, Edgar Peter from TCE Standard

Lougheed, Edgar Peter, businessman, lawyer, premier of Alberta (b at Calgary 26 July 1928). Born to power, Lougheed came from the fourth generation of Lougheeds in Alberta. Sir James LOUGHEED, his grandfather, was the only Albertan to be knighted and the first Conservative to serve in a federal cabinet. He was instrumental in the creation of Alberta as a province in 1905. His grandson, who would be credited with lifting the province out of political and economic obscurity, shared his passionate concern over provincial control of natural resources and made it a touchstone of his policies when he became premier. Lougheed studied at the University of Alberta, receiving a BA (1951) and LLB (1952). A noted athlete, he played football at university for the Golden Bears and briefly for the Edmonton Eskimos. In 1954 he earned an MBA from Harvard University and was called to the bar the following year. He practised law in Calgary before joining the Mannix Corporation (1956), one of Canada's largest construction firms, rising swiftly up the ranks to vice-president (1959) and then director (1962).

State Capitalism has always been the economic engine of growth in Alberta. Despite all the rhetoric about free trade and free markets. The Socreds were state capitalists and so were the Lougheed PC's. The Wheat Board was founded here in Socred Alberta in cooperation with CCF Saskatchewan. The Socreds and CCF shared a common belief in the economics of distributism and the ideals of a producers cooperative economy.

But they were in power for 35 years and by the end they were stale, old, cranky, incapable of dealing with the boom that was emerging in Alberta in 1971. And so like the Ralph regime, which also is now 35 years old, they were turfed by the young turks around Peter Lougheed.

The Lougheed government saw the growth in government services, expanding the public services, infrastructure, creating State Capitalist enterprizes for Tar Sands development. The Alberta Government eliminated small airlines, buying them up to create their own airline- Pacific Western Airlines, expanding airfields across the province to provide a base for PWA, all needed to get folks up north to the Tar Sands.

Hosptials, schools, universities, seniors homes, subsidies to farmers, cash for cities, roads, etc. all were provided by the paternalistic party of Lougheed. Construction boomed. Diversification was its hope, and its downfall. As the state attempted to fund secondary and tertiary businesses, the economy went into a tail spin. The golden days of Peter Lougheed ended and the province was put on auto-pilot durning the economic crash under lame duck Premier Don Getty.

And though Getty was an oil man, he was the ultimate back room boy. More akin to former lame duck Socred Premier Harry Strom than Lougheed. And he was from Edmonton, though his favorite watering hole was the Petroleum Club in Calgary. His was a remote regime, and though the PC's had no real opposition in the house, his lack of attention and gaffs made the media, the fourth estate, the new opposition. He became a joke.

When in doubt or facing crticism the Getty government tried and true method of gaining votes was to build another hospital, school or seniors home in rural Alberta. And the party reacted, especially those in Calgary, who feard that like the Socreds before them their scandal ridden regime would fall. Enter Ralph Klein.

The Klein government transformed Lougheeds paternalistic state capitalism for the good of the province to a state capitalism that was good for business, in particular the Petro Gang in Calgary. It sold off all its investments in business and ended Lougheeds tradition of diversification . Ideologically it adopted the neo con agenda of the influential University of Calgary Reform Party Think Tank, the NCC and the Fraser Institute.

It was as night and day to the Lougheed utilitarian liberal party. The social and economic conservatives took over under Klein and his role was to mediate between them.

They never had a plan for the province, they had an ideology, and while they share with Lougheed an interest in Free Trade that was as far as it went. Because Lougheed viewed free trade as an issue between states, much like Mulroney did.
The Klein reformists viewed free trade as privatization of the state. Thus any form of state planning or state capitalism was anathema.

It is this reason, this divide between Lougheed the Harvard trained lawyer scion of the Mannix Family corporation, and Klein the media creation, former weatherman and drunk.

In a sense this critique of Klein is personal as much as it a warning to the party whose choices for Leadership post Klein are very much right wing neo-con social conservatives. Not Lougheeds kind of folks.

His view of Klein is also coloured by the fact he is a life long teetotaler. Much to his shame his father lost the family estate, as a drunk. Klein has done the same.


Also See:

Ralph Klein

Alberta

Social Credit

Manning

Lougheed



Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
Alberta, Lougheed, Klein, Oil, Planning, History, Politics, Economics, TarSands

OPINION | If you're going to evoke the legacy of Peter Lougheed, get it right

 CBC 23 hours ago

This column is an opinion from Sara Hastings-Simon, a research fellow at the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary.

Last week, the Government of Alberta announced a new policy in the Throne Speech that was not detailed in the budget.

Evoking the legacy of Peter Lougheed, there was a promise that "Alberta is prepared to invest directly and support companies and Indigenous groups, when necessary, to assure the future of responsible resource development."

But, if we truly want to be "like the government of the late premier Lougheed," we can't simply invest public money to grow production of oil from the oilsands as he did.

Context matters, and much has changed in the decades since.

Instead, we should apply the same thinking to the different situation we face today.

In doing so, the history of Lougheed's approach can guide us in making public investments that open up access to more of Alberta's natural resources, from hydrogen to lithium to agri-food and more, just as his investments in the oilsands was critical in unlocking that industry.

The Alberta context

The global context in both periods is complex, with the oil embargoes and restructuring of the international industry in the 1970s, and the energy transition today, but there is a clear difference in the Alberta context.

While today the oil industry in Alberta is dominated by oilsands production, when Lougheed came to power in 1971, the oil industry in the province was one of conventional oil. So much so that there were limits in place to oilsands production to protect the conventional industry.

The Conservation Board, the government entity responsible for approving new oilsands facilities, had even rejected new oilsands projects on the grounds that they threatened the existing conventional industry. 

A shift in government policy to allow for more oilsands production was possible in part because of the decline in conventional reserves that became clear in the early 1970s, as production outpaced the finding of new reserves.

Lougheed acknowledged this threat to the incumbent industry head on. He spoke of the need to make good use of the remaining revenues in light of what he called an eight-to-12 year horizon for conventional industry growth. He even raised royalty rates to increase the government's ability to do so.
Moreover, he did not heed the call of many in the conventional industry at the time who wanted a primary focus on enhanced oil recovery to increase production from this existing industry.

Growing something new

Instead, his investment in the future of resource development was primarily directed toward growing something new in the oilsands, through direct investment in both technology development and construction of the industry.

In doing so, he acknowledged the critical role of the incumbent industry in the economy, both historically and in funding future economic growth, while simultaneously acknowledging the larger opportunity beyond.

While the factors underpinning the threat are different, the oilsands industry today more closely resembles that of the conventional industry in Lougheed's time. Therefore, following the lessons from Lougheed's actions requires more than simply repeating the same investments he made.

Lougheed's public investment in the oilsands was far from support for an existing industry. Rather, it was a strategy that used the public wealth generated by the existing industry to unlock new and different resources in the province.

In doing so, he walked a difficult line in industrial policy, working with existing strengths and competencies within the province but applying them to new challenges that were adjacent to the core activities of the incumbents of the day.

Alberta's natural resource wealth provides an opportunity to make similar investments in today's context. For example, unlocking production of the hydrogen that is abundant in the oilsands resource, or the critical metals and minerals found within the province like the lithium required for batteries, are both new ways to use our natural resources to power the world.

Building on the province's core competencies, including engineering and technical skills, we can responsibly develop these resources. The same is true for the natural resources that support our agricultural system and the potential for significant growth in the agri-food industry.

PETER LOUGHEED WAS A PROGRESSIVE (CONSERVATIVE) AKA A LIBERAL
1984 NEP AND PETROCAN CREATED JOINTLY BY ALBERTA AND OTTAWA

Well respected across the political spectrum in Alberta, Lougheed's government provides important lessons we can use today about the need for direct government investment in developing our resources, but we must get the lessons right.

Lougheed did not shy away from the difficult truth of the future that Alberta faced at the time. He spoke of his despair of short-term thinking, and the need to ensure long-term prosperity for Alberta.

And he understood that investing the wealth that came from the public's ownership in the existing resource industry was critical in realizing this prosperity in new ways.

I believe we would indeed be wise to follow his legacy today in our investments in Alberta's resources.

---30---

SEE 
https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=LOUGHEED
https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=PETROCAN
https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=NEP
https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/search?q=OILSANDS

Who Said It First

The echo chamber of the Blogging Tories, the National Post and the New Canadian Government, having all the Alberta MP's , have now gotten through to their pals in the Media Room of Premier Ed Stelmachs office. Which prompted his latest Klein like outburst.

But before Mark Holland of the Liberals said anything about the need to slow down tarsands development this guy said it first, and not a peep, nary a word, not a comment from the BT's or the Harpocrites, heck not a word from Fast Eddie either.......


Former premier, Peter Lougheed criticizes oil sands development

CALGARY, Jan. 24 /CNW/ -The next episode of Energy-TV includes a candid
interview with former premier, Peter Lougheed following his keynote address at
the Oil Sands Supply & Infrastructure conference in Calgary. Lougheed
delivered a speech that was critical of both the petroleum industry and the
provincial government's management of oil sands development.
In an exclusive Energy-TV interview, Lougheed bluntly discusses his
concerns about the rapid oil sands development including a call for a review
of the capital expenditure aspect of oil sands projects and how the rising
cost overruns are impacting the royalties collected from oil sands reserves.
He also examines alternatives for cleaner oil sands development, such as not
using natural gas for bitumen production, alternative energy sources and his
views on fresh water use.

Former premier says bitumen should stay in Alberta

Tuesday, January 16, 2007

Lougheed told delegates at an energy conference in Calgary on Tuesday that the provincial government should firmly link the licensing of new projects to the processing of bitumen at home.

"I just find it completely unacceptable that our resource involves shipping jobs down the pipeline with bitumen to the United States."

Lougheed, the keynote speaker at the two-day Oilsands Supply and Infrastructure conference at the Hyatt Regency, said shipping bitumen south is a temporary solution in an overheating economy, but it shouldn't be part of the long-term plan.

Note the dates, and this is not the first time Lougheed has said this......

See

Stelmach

NEP

TarSands

Alberta

Environment



Find blog posts, photos, events and more off-site about:
Ed Stelmach,, Premier,, NEP,, PeterLougheed,,Alberta,, tarsands,, environment,, poltics,, Green,, Conservatives,, Government,, Baird,, Tories,, green house gas,, climate change,, global warming,, petroleum,, oil,, oil sands,, Liberals,

Rachel Notley is Alberta’s real progressive conservative

'I disagree with him completely': Rachel Notley says of Jagmeet Singh's oilsands stance

08:10
CTV QP: Notley against cutting oilsands production

Spencer Van Dyk
CTV News Parliamentary Bureau 

Writer, Producer
Updated May 13, 2023 6:12 p.m. MDT

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley says she completely disagrees with federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s stance on oil and gas industry subsidies, because she thinks the economy driving sector needs investment to stay competitive internationally and find innovative ways to reduce emissions.

Notley told CTV’s Question Period host Vassy Kapelos, in an interview airing Sunday, she thinks the oil and gas sector needs to be “at the table” in conversations about how to reduce carbon emissions.

She added that while the oil and gas industry saw record profits last year, she still believes it needs investment, especially if Canada is going to compete with the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which offers billions of dollars in energy incentives south of the border.

Meanwhile Singh, Notley’s federal counterpart, has long been calling on the Liberal government to “stop giving billions of dollars of public money to oil and gas companies.”

The oil and gas sector made record profits last year — reaching more than $34 billion — and Singh has said he wants to see the Liberals cancel all subsidies to the industry, including the Carbon Capture Tax Credit.

Notley, however, said she “disagree(s) with him completely on this issue.”

She said while oil and gas profits “are spectacular right now,” the sector also “suffered significant losses during (the pandemic),” and there’s a pressing need to stay competitive with the Inflation Reduction Act.

“So there are a lot of different factors that play at it,” she said. “But I do disagree with this idea that there should be no partnerships with oil and gas when we are in a position of it playing still such an important role in our economy.”

She added she disagrees with “this idea that we can just simply walk away from something that contributes such a large amount to our economy, not just in Alberta, but across Canada, on a point of principle.”

With little more than two weeks until Albertans head to the polls, both Notley and UCP Leader Danielle Smith have also pushed back against the federal government’s emissions reduction targets.

Last March, the federal government proposed targets to reduce overall emissions to 40 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, with the oil and gas sector having the goal of cutting emissions by 42 per cent in the next seven years.

Notley has called the targets “unrealistic.”

She said while an emissions cap is “part of the tools necessary” to achieving the goals of reducing emissions, ensuring products are sustainable, and expanding access to international markets, she doesn’t believe the federal government’s target is reasonable.

“But to do that, it has to be practical and it has to be achievable,” Notley said. “Aspirational goals can sometimes serve to be less effective than no goals, although I'm not in favor of either of those things.”

“What I want to see is practical goals, and then a very practical plan,” she also said, adding she wants to see an emissions reduction, not a production reduction.

“The emissions output must be cut, but we don't want to see actual production cuts as an effort to achieve emissions reduction,” she said. “So let's be very clear: we're not going to be endorsing production cuts. We think that we can reach emissions reductions through other means.”

SEE

THE ALBERTA NDP THE PARTY OF OIL WORKERS

THE COINCIDENTAL BIRTH OF THE NEW DEMOCRATS 

AND THE OIL INDUSTRY IN ALBERTA

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for OIL NDP 

Rachel Notley is Alberta’s real progressive conservative
By Max Fawcett | Opinion, Politics | May 4th 2023

Rachel Notley's embrace of Alberta's oil and gas industry is all part of her value proposition to former Progressive Conservative voters. 

Photo via Rachel Notley / Twitter

Peter Lougheed was Alberta’s 10th premier, the creator of its Heritage Savings Trust Fund, and the architect of a four-decade political dynasty that would see his Alberta Progressive Conservatives win 12 consecutive elections, most of them in a walk. He went to war with Pierre Trudeau, helped defeat the National Energy Program, and fought effectively for Alberta’s place in Confederation. And if he was alive today, he’d probably be voting for Rachel Notley’s NDP.

Just ask Danielle Smith — yes, that Danielle Smith — who wrote back in 2019 that “Notley is, without question, the inheritor of the Lougheed tradition. That’s not to say he was a full-on socialist, but Notley isn’t either. I think most Albertans have been shocked to see how pragmatic she has governed, particularly as it concerns natural resources.”

Smith would probably like to take back that endorsement, but Notley’s NDP continues to attract the support of prominent former members of Lougheed’s government, from MLAs like Allan Warrack and Ron Ghitter to Lougheed’s chief of staff (and later federal MP) Lee Richardson.

Notley’s appeal to former Progressive Conservatives is a product of her party’s deliberate shift to the political centre, along with her Lougheed-esque stewardship of Alberta’s resources. The federal purchase and construction of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion project, which will be completed sometime this year and in service by the first quarter of 2024, speaks to the success of those efforts.

But Notley’s appeal among more progressive conservatives is also a reflection of just how toxic Smith’s brand of conservatism is to many otherwise conservative Albertans. Her recent admission that she looks to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as role models for Alberta says everything about her politics, and how prominently the COVID-19 pandemic still figures in them.

Before he was known for banning books and getting sued by Disney, DeSantis made his name in Republican circles by making Florida the most COVID-friendly state in the union. Noem made her own bid for that title back in 2021, when she proclaimed: “If @joebiden illegally mandates vaccines, I will take every action available under the law to protect South Dakotans from the federal government.”

If Smith had been in power during the pandemic, it’s easy to imagine her saying something similar. This sort of live-and-let-die attitude is at odds with the more compassionate (and informed) brand of conservatism that Lougheed is remembered for.

But as Jared Wesley and Ken Boessenkool argued in a piece for The Line, Smith is really a conservative in name only. “Smith is not a temperamental conservative. Indeed, she is rarely an ideological conservative. Instead, her politics amount to libertarian-laced populism, directly opposed to the sort of principled, incrementalist politics Albertans have appreciated from conservative governments in the past.”

Smith is certainly no fiscal conservative, although that’s a much rarer breed than most Albertans have been led to believe. After passing the biggest spending budget in Alberta history, Smith opened the campaign by offering up a 20 per cent tax cut on incomes up to $60,000 that would cost the Treasury as much as $760 per adult. In order to pay for it, Smith plans to rely on a continuation of the recent gusher in oil and gas royalties — one that may already be in the process of evaporating, as oil prices crashed below $70 a barrel this week.

And when it comes to law and order, Smith has a track record of siding with the people trying to upend it. There’s her fawning phone call with far-right preacher (and Coutts blockade supporter) Artur Pawlowski, who was found guilty of mischief and breaching his bail conditions on Tuesday. And as Press Progress reported that same day, her support for the blockade apparently ran even deeper than that. In a February 2022 livestream with the Western Standard, Smith says, “We want to see it win in Coutts.”

The Coutts blockade, remember, included a group of heavily armed men making threats against law enforcement that included conspiracy to commit murder. But even before those charges were laid, it was clear the blockaders were interfering with the movement of goods and people across the border. That doesn’t seem to have bothered Smith, though. “This whole phrase of ‘peace, order and good government’, I think it’s become a shorthand to the federal government can do whatever the heck it wants and we just have to be peaceful and orderly about it,” Smith said.

Smith, then, is not any kind of conservative that Peter Lougheed would identify with. If anything, she and the “Take Back Alberta” group that helped elect her as party leader have more in common with the Alberta Social Credit party that Lougheed defeated in 1971. The real question for conservatives in this election is whether they still identify with Peter Lougheed or not. If enough of them do, Notley will make history as the first former premier to get returned to power — and join Lougheed as one of the most important political leaders in Alberta history.

This column is featured in my new newsletter, which you can get delivered to your inbox once a week. If you want to stay up to date on my signature, no-nonsense opinion writing, subscribe here

Who's the true conservative in Alberta's provincial election? The answer is more complicated than you might think — and it holds the key to victory for Rachel Notley. @maxfawcett writes for @NatObserver

May 4th 2023

Max Fawcett
Lead Columnist, Podcast Host
@maxfawcett

Calgary·Analysis

No, Jagmeet Singh isn't Rachel Notley's boss. But their 'union' remains rivals' target

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As UCP ratchets up scrutiny, Alberta NDP less reliant on 

federal or labour support

Jason Markusoff · CBC News · Posted: May 14, 2023 

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley lays out her jobs plan at a campaign event. Don't expect to see federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh campaign in Alberta with her, a reality that perfectly suits Notley's team. (Jason Franson/The Canadian Press)

There was a time, a rather long time, when the Alberta NDP was little more than the labour unions' partisan mouthpiece, and the largely inconsequential cousins of the federal New Democrats.

With a more diverse — read: less union-centric — candidate roster and political positions that shuck much of what Jagmeet Singh's party stands for, the provincial NDP has arguably never been as independent from influence of its longstanding organizational partners as it is now.

And yet never before has the Alberta NDP faced such a torrent of rival accusations it's in thrall with organized labour, and had its relationship with the federal branch depicted as not cousin-cousin, but parent-child or master-slave.

Danielle Smith declares Singh is Rachel Notley's "boss" nearly every chance she gets: "I question whether she works for Albertans or whether she works for her federal leader," the UCP leader said at one campaign event. 

Marks against them

The jabs are rooted in some long-standing truths and technicalities. The Alberta NDP constitution does declare the party a branch of the Canadian party, and membership in one equals membership in the other.

And unions and the Alberta Federation of Labour have roles specified in the party's structure. Plus, there's the inescapable reality that Notley's husband Lou Arab worked with the Alberta division of the Canadian Union of Public Employees throughout her premiership, and continues to.

But these have been structural realities of the provincial NDP for decades. Ties with unions and the federal party have always come with benefits on the organizational and support side, along with headaches when big labour or Ottawa drags down the provincial party's reputation.

What's new in 2023 is the UCP leader's public focus on it. Jason Kenney and other past  Alberta conservatives loved to pin this or that left-of-Alberta federal remark on Notley's party — but the "boss" stuff is new.

Theoretically, yes, the constitutional structure of the Alberta NDP and other provincial counterparts holds that the federal branch is supreme. But there is no modern history of Singh or past leaders wielding the club to enforce obedience on a disagreeable faction of this pan-Canadian orange network.

Orange rebellion

More than four decades ago, Saskatchewan NDP premier Allan Blakeney clashed with then-federal leader Ed Broadbent. Ottawa abided by restiveness in the colonies.

The more recent examples of a Provincial Orange freely standing up to Big Orange belong to Notley. After fighting for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, she openly slammed Singh's opposition to the project, saying that he was thumbing his nose at the working people who relied on the energy economy. 

Federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh at a 2021 federal election event in Edmonton. The party has two seats in Alberta's capital, but rivals the Trudeau Liberals for popularity in the rest of the province (and that's no sign of strength). (Paul Chiasson/The Canadian Press)

"To forget that and to throw them under the bus as collateral damage in pursuit of some other high level policy objective is a recipe for failure and it's also very elitist," she told the Edmonton Journal in 2018.

Notley swiped at Singh again Sunday on CTV's Question Period. She said she completely disagrees with the federal leader on ending support for oil and gas companies, and "this idea that we can just simply walk away from something that contributes such a large amount to our economy, not just in Alberta, but across Canada, on a point of principle."

There aren't too many disses outside of the energy file. Dismissiveness, more so.

Earlier this month, Notley said she last spoke with Singh six to 12 months ago — a long time to go without talking to one's supposed boss — and cannot remember what they spoke about. "Whether I am talking to the leader of the federal NDP, whether I am advocating in Ottawa, whether I am talking to New Democrats in B.C., Albertans know that I have always been quite ready to do whatever is necessary to stand up for the best interests of Albertans," she told reporters.

During elections, there's a perennial air drop of activists from the federal and other provincial NDP wings to lend campaign support — including Nathan Rotman, flown in from Ontario to be Notley's campaign manager. (Similarly, federal Conservative veteran Steve Outhouse temporarily moved from Ottawa to run Smith's campaign.)

• AUDIO
  Small towns with big city problems

Sure, there's plenty of points of commonality, the shared crusades in Alberta and Ottawa for a higher minimum wage and lower child-care fees. But look up and down Singh's support agreement with the Liberals and Justin Trudeau, and there's not a ton that checks both sides' boxes.

The provincial NDP isn't gung-ho on many of the federal party's priorities in its agreement with Trudeau, like pharma-care and dental care or an end to fossil-fuel subsidies. And when the two party factions speak of just transition alongside climate action, they seem to make different points.

In fact, the biggest bit of federal platform borrowing by Notley wasn't from Singh. Her promise to give families a tax credit for children's sports or arts activities was a page ripped from those reliable buddies, the Stephen Harper Conservatives.

Protesters disrupted a United Conservative Party media availability held on Thursday. Conservatives eagerly identified one participant as a past federal NDP candidate. (CBC News)

But it's little surprise that Smith's team spotted a former federal NDP candidate in the disruptive protest at a UCP event and branded him a Notleyite. Despite intra-party differences, federal candidates still run provincially and vice versa, including candidates in this race in Maskwacis, Chestermere and Calgary–North East.

It used to be more routine for the Alberta NDP's candidate roster to be filled with local union stewards or labour leaders, especially to fill slates in low-hope ridings. Many surprise 2015 election winners came from those ranks.

But with the party's hopes ascendent in 2023, they've gotten more candidate recruits from outside their labour base. Even if Gil McGowan's AFL and major unions remain active players within the party, the diversified influences mean those are less likely to be the only voices Notley and her brain trust hear.

Again, Smith has raised concerns over long-standing relationships, including Notley's husband and the AFL's former role within her rival's party. "We should be very, very concerned about the influence on the NDP, not only of the unions that are embedded in their decision making process and their delegate status and choose their leader," Smith said recently, when deflecting a question about the unclear degrees of influence the group Take Back Alberta has on her party.

The Alberta NDP had to wean itself off of its heavy reliance on union donations eight years ago when Notley banned union and corporate contributions to parties. But both types of entities retained their power to spend heavily on elections with the third-party advertiser system.

Labour pains

Controversial reforms that Kenney passed have restrained the way union groups can participate in elections, but the UCP has lately raised alarms about the extent to which big labour is assisting Notley. Smith's party wants Elections Alberta to use those Kenney reforms as a cudgel against the AFL and unions, alleging they're breaking the new rules.

McGowan and others insist they're following the law, even if he brands what United Conservatives want to do with it as unconstitutional. "They're indignant that we found a way to legally exercise our free speech rights, despite their best efforts to shut us up and shut us down," the AFL leader said in a statement this week.

• ANALYSIS
  Donations from wealthy individuals more important under new Alberta election ad rules

There are no doubt moments when some in Notley's inner circle wish their union affiliates and federal cousins would pipe down, and not occasionally force Alberta NDP to have to distance themselves from erstwhile allies.

But as long as Notley's party resists any formal dissolving of the ties that bind them to organized labour and every other politician in Canada attached to the NDP, it will have to take the good and bad of this solidarity forever.

Corrections

• An earlier version of this analysis incorrectly stated that Lou Arab, the husband of Rachel Notley, has an executive role with a union group.
  May 15, 2023 

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Jason Markusoff

Producer and writer

Jason Markusoff analyzes what's happening — and what isn't happening, but probably should be — in Calgary and sometimes farther afield. He's written in Alberta for nearly two decades with Maclean's magazine, the Calgary Herald and Edmonton Journal. He appears regularly on Power and Politics' Power Panel and various other CBC current affairs shows. Reach him at jason.markusoff@cbc.ca

Trudeau’s oil and gas policies too harsh for 

Rachel Notley

Centre-left contender looking to reclaim power as premier of Alberta in upcoming election

Bloomberg News
Brian Platt and Robert Tuttle

Last updated May 11, 2012

Rachel Notley is running to be premier of Alberta again. The province goes to the polls on May 29. PHOTO BY BEN NELMS/BLOOMBERG
Article content

The woman who’s looking to reclaim power in Canada’s energy heartland is pushing back against Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s targets for cleaning up the oil and gas industry.

Rachel Notley, who was the centre-left premier of Alberta from 2015 to 2019 and is running for the job again, said Trudeau’s plan for cutting the sector’s emissions by more than 40 per cent by the end of the decade is too onerous. Her stance mirrors that of the country’s largest crude producers — and it’s also one that may be a political necessity as her New Democratic Party battles for votes in a province where oil is king and the prime minister is deeply unpopular.

“I don’t believe that the current drafted emissions caps that we’ve seen are realistic,” Notley said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “If we don’t get down to work and come up with a more practical cap, we are not going to be successful in mapping out a process that will get us there.

Trudeau’s government has promised to limit emissions in the energy sector to ensure Canada meets its climate targets, but hasn’t yet chosen a mechanism for doing so. His government published a plan last year that modelled a 42 per cent cut in oil and gas sector emissions by 2030, which oil executives have said isn’t possible without slashing output. More draft regulations are expected to be released within weeks.

Relations between the federal government and Alberta — whose nearly four million barrels of daily oil output makes Canada the world’s fourth-largest crude producer — are a perennial flashpoint in local politics. Notley’s 2015 victory was a rare win in a traditionally conservative province. She’s looking to defeat the United Conservative Party, currently led by Danielle Smith, in an election set for May 29.

Although Notley is generally much more aligned with Trudeau’s environmental agenda than Smith, she said the federal government is trying to move too fast on cutting oil-sector emissions. The vast majority of these emissions in Canada come from Alberta’s oilsands, which is among the world’s most carbon-intensive crude sources.

Race for premier is tight

“Using aspirational numbers to drive practical policy is not a recipe for success,” Notley said. “The key is making sure that what we put in place is practical and achievable, and it doesn’t become so oppressive that we find ourselves shutting in production.”

Notley said she doesn’t oppose a cap in principle, but she declined to provide her own emissions target, saying she’d consult with experts and industry on the matter.

“We’re not going to be unambitious,” she said. “But we are going to be realistic, and we’re going to make sure that the industry is able to continue to flourish.”

Polls suggest the race between Notley and Smith is very tight. A recent Leger survey found the New Democrats had a two-point lead over the United Conservatives, while another poll by Ipsos found Smith’s party was up by four points.

Notley is expected to sweep much of Alberta’s capital city of Edmonton, while Smith is dominant in the smaller population centres and rural areas. The election will likely come down to who wins the most districts in Calgary — where many of Canada’s energy companies are headquartered.

Notley argued that in the bigger picture, Canada’s environmental policy needs input from Alberta, and that has been prevented by the hostility between Smith’s United Conservatives and Trudeau’s Liberal Party.

“Both Alberta and Canada do best when energy policy is crafted, quite frankly, by Alberta,” she said. “So we want to be at the table, we want to be driving the conversation, and we want to be coming up with solutions that ultimately drive investment and grow our markets.”

Another of Trudeau’s signature environmental policies is a carbon tax on consumer fuels, which kicks in if a province doesn’t have an equivalent carbon price of its own. Notley said she would leave that as a federal tax, instead of replacing it with a made-in-Alberta version.

‘More money’ from Ottawa

To help push the oil sector to decarbonize, Trudeau has also introduced tax credits to defray the capital costs of building carbon capture systems. The credits are worth up to $12.4 billion over the next 10 years, federal officials estimate.

Even more public money for carbon capture might be necessary to compete with the lucrative production tax credits in the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, Notley said. She declined to say if she would commit the provincial government to providing the funds.

“It really is a matter still for negotiations,” she said. “My first goal will be to get more money out of the federal government.”

Yet another federal policy that’s been the source of controversy in Alberta is an impending requirement that electricity grids be made net-zero emissions by 2035.


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Notley said Alberta can achieve the milestone at a reasonable cost if she’s elected premier and that trillions of dollars of global investment in renewable energy projects are coming over the next decade.

“It would be utterly ridiculous for Alberta to not be at the table trying to attract some of that,” she said. “So that is going to require some smart government policy, that’s going to require some incentives.”

Bloomberg.com