Georgians continue fight for democracy after almost 500 days of protest

THE COUNTRY NOT THE STATE

/ bne IntelliNews

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By bne IntelliNews March 20, 2026

It's Saturday night in Tbilisi. A crowd is gathering outside the city's State Concert Hall, chatting among themselves. For some, the gathering offers a brief respite from the exhaustion of prolonged demonstration. For others, it is an act of defiance against a government that opposition figures, Western observers and many Georgians say is illegitimate.

A marching band strikes up, signalling the march to begin. The crowd steps off the pavement and onto the road, bringing traffic to a halt. Several women move to the front, each carrying a photograph. The faces in the images belong to some of Georgia's more than 118 political prisoners, people convicted on charges ranging from protest activity to drug offences to espionage since Georgian Dream came to power in elections that have been widely disputed. The women carrying the photographs are their mothers, a group that has come to be known as the Mothers of Conscience.

The crowd slowly marches down Rustaveli Avenue, growing in size as it does. By the time we are outside parliament, the numbers have reached 800 or so. Tonight is a technical violation of new laws that prohibit blocking the road and pavement. The only way to get around it is to request police permission – which puts protestors in an awkward spot: to ask permission from an authority they don't recognise.

"This is a resistance," 36-year-old Guram Chukhrukidze told bne IntelliNews. "We are not complying with the stupid laws they adopt."

After more than a year of continuous protests, sparked by a disputed election in which Georgian Dream claimed victory despite widespread allegations of fraud, many faces in the crowd have grown familiar.

Sustaining hope

But beneath the conversational mood lies a real paradox: how to sustain hope as new authoritarian legislation is continuously pushed through. Georgian Dream has severely cracked down on the right to protest, freedom of speech and political pluralism. Opposition leaders and protesters have faced new charges ranging from drug offences to espionage. So far, the impact of international sanctions has remained limited; Georgia still has one of the region's fastest-growing economies.

As of March 20, Georgians are on their 478th consecutive day of pro-European protest. Many demonstrators say these protests are the last thing preventing Georgian Dream from presenting itself as a democracy.

"The main source of the government's illegitimacy is this," said Chukhrukidze gesturing toward the crowd gathered outside parliament on March 7.

"They adopted this new law which says that we are obliged to ask to protest. Whenever we want to go and protest, we have to apply first to the police. But actually… this law is against the constitution of Georgia."

Since Georgian Dream was elected, newly introduced laws mean that first-time offences including concealing your face to evade facial recognition, or blocking the road or pavement, can be punished with up to 15 days of immediate detention.

Protests have also adapted in response to these laws. Numbers are smaller and actions are less disruptive; there is no longer tear gas, the use of lasers or a heavy police presence.

"We want to avoid escalation," said Chukhrukidze. "One of the main values of our protest is that we are fully peaceful."

Political legacy 

But for some, continuing to show up is becoming harder as hope grows scarcer. Weekday protests are noticeably smaller than Saturdays as the energy required to continuously show up wanes.

What motivates those who continue to show up is not only the desire for a democratic Georgia, but also the memory of everything they have already endured in its name.

"I personally don't have hope and I don't live in illusions," said 51-year-old Ioska Jandieri, a former political prisoner under ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili. Jandieri was sentenced to eight years for burning his state documents outside parliament in 2007, in protest against a prior election widely suspected of being rigged. The protests that followed contributed to one of the most significant democratic upheavals in the country's history, the Rose Revolution.

"Still, I might be wrong. I'm an ordinary mortal person," said Jandieri. "Maybe today I feel no hope and yet tomorrow the regime could collapse on its own, like what happened with [former Venezuelan president Nicolás] Maduro, for example," he said.

In spite of his fading hope, Jandieri can easily count the number of days he has missed the protests: seven when he was arrested, and four when he had a virus.

"I am a patriot of my country, and I feel obliged to stand on the right side of history every day and to come out and fight for the democracy of my country," he said.

Mothers of Conscience

Tsaro Oshmakashvili, 62, is another dedicated protester who comes to Rustaveli each night. She has taken it upon herself to campaign on behalf of one of over a hundred Georgians imprisoned for political reasons since 2024.

Oshmakashvili met Archil Museliantsi, 30, a political prisoner who has been an orphan since childhood, on Rustaveli Avenue at the height of the protests. At the time, Museliantsi told Oshmakashvili he was ready to die for his country.

He was later arrested and sentenced to four years in prison for setting fire to one of the CCTV cameras the government uses to identify protesters through facial recognition. The video used to convict him does not clearly show his face, and the footage is widely believed to have been spliced together.

Since his arrest, Oshmakashvili has dedicated herself to campaigning for his release alongside the Mothers of Conscience, a group representing the mothers of Georgia's political prisoners, bringing him supplies in Gldani prison, and keeping his name in the public eye.

Despite her near-nightly presence outside parliament, Oshmakashvili also finds herself struggling with hopelessness.

"Lately my mood has been a bit heavy. To say it directly, I feel tired and not in a very good emotional state," she told bne IntelliNews on March 11.

"First, Archil and the boys are in prison, and they absolutely must be released. That gives me the motivation to keep fighting… [but] sometimes a sense of hopelessness comes over me, thinking that it may take a very, very long time."

Camping out 

Darejan Tskhvitaria, 68, has sacrificed a great deal to sustain the protests. When bne IntelliNews visited her on March 11, she had been living in a makeshift tent set up outside parliament for the past 13 months, sleeping on a mattress placed on wooden crates beneath a tarpaulin roof.

"Every day, I go over to the Gallery-Museum to use the toilet and tidy myself up. I bring a bottle of water and wash there. Three times a week, I leave for an hour to go to my cousin's house to bathe, and then I come straight back here."

"This sacrifice is worth it to ensure the protest on Rustaveli never stops. It's worth it for that. Girls used to tell me, 'Darejan, it's so cold, I can't go out,' but then they would say, 'I remembered you, a woman sitting there 24 hours a day, and I told myself I had no right to stay home.'"

That same night, Tskhvitaria was forcibly evicted from her tent after a fire broke out in a neighbouring protester's tent, which was quickly extinguished. Police arrived at the scene, confiscated her phone, and took her to the station.

After four hours, Tskhvitaria was released and her phone was returned, but she found that all her contacts had been deleted. When she arrived back at parliament, her possessions and tent had been removed.

Tskhvitaria says she plans to continue her protest regardless.

"They will probably allow me to set up a tent again, I don't know. But with or without it, I am going to stay here. Last winter I didn't have a tent, but I spent nights here on the concrete. I will continue being here," she told OC Media.

Tskhvitaria also has a personal reason to keep going: her seven-year-old son was poisoned on April 9, 1989, and died seven months later. 

"I've been fighting and involved in activism my entire life. I've fought injustice forever; this is nothing new to me," she told bne IntelliNews.

"If I didn't have hope, I certainly couldn't stay here like this. Hope for the future and faith are what keep me here; they give me the will to fight, because we are right."

"No state has granted legitimacy to this 'pseudo-government' that has seized power. That is a huge trump card for us. We will fight, Europe will help, and we will send them packing."

"A government that supports the Iranian dictatorship and kills its own people has no future. I want to say a huge thank you to Britain for sanctioning these propaganda media outlets, Imedi and POSTV. Their resources will slowly dry up because they won't be able to run ads, and the propaganda will decrease," she said.

Absent youth

Another new feature of the protests is the noticeable absence of young people, many of whom previously endured arrest, severe police brutality, tear gas, and the onslaught of police water cannons during the immediate fallout of the contentious election in November and December 2024. The BBC later reported that these cannons were laced with toxic chemicals.

"Most of the students who were previously active have decided to step back," 22-year-old Sergey Kacheli told bne IntelliNews. "Students are avoiding the protests and withholding their solidarity because of the sheer scale of the crackdown, the ongoing oppression, and the harsh new laws regarding custody."

A report published on March 12 under the OSCE's Moscow Mechanism found clear evidence of democratic backsliding in Georgia, pointing to a pattern of violence and abuse against protesters, journalists, and opposition figures, alongside near-total impunity for those responsible. It warned that efforts to ban the main opposition parties pose a direct threat to political pluralism, and highlighted repressive protest laws, worsening press freedom, and a legislative "chilling effect" driving journalists toward self-censorship.

The report called for the release of political prisoners, new elections under international observation, an end to attempts to outlaw opposition parties, and sanctions against Georgian officials. The government, however, dismissed the findings as politically biased and factually flawed, leaving those on the streets to continue their protests in a standoff over the country's democratic future.

Tbilisi Now Home To A ‘Press Freedom Predator’

November 12, 2025 
By Eurasianet

(Eurasianet) — In a sign that Georgia has completed its authoritarian makeover, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) has added the ruling Georgian Dream party’s founder, billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, to its list of global “press freedom predators,” citing his decisive influence over national politics and media outlets.

“[Ivanishvili] continues to be the center around which power gravitates in Georgia despite his official withdrawal from political life. His business empire guarantees him decisive influence,” RSF writes, placing him among figures who “ruin media financially.”

He joins a list of 34 press freedom predators worldwide, including Azerbaijan leader Ilham Aliyev, Russia’s Vladimir Putin and US tech titan Elon Musk.

The designation comes at the same time the European Union Commission released its annual enlargement assessment, in which Georgia is described as “a candidate country in name only.” Out of the 10 countries covered, Georgia received the most severe criticism; Serbia lagged far behind in the criticism department.

The Commission noted that the situation in Georgia has “significantly further deteriorated” since December of last year, when Tbilisi decided to suspend its accession process until 2028, a decision party leaders announced after disputed parliamentary elections, blaming the EU for “blackmailing.”

“In Georgia, the adopted and enforced restrictive laws targeting activists, civil society and independent media threaten the survival of democratic foundations and are unprecedented among candidate countries,” the assessment stated.

Asked about potential action, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos said that later in November the Commission “will hopefully get the new visa-suspension mechanism, which will enable us to take some further steps”.

The EU has long threatened to suspend visa-free travel privileges for Georgians if Georgian Dream didn’t take fast action to reverse course. Despite the Georgian government’s outright rejection of an EU ultimatum, Brussels continues to hesitate on following through on its threat. The suspension of visa-free travel could spark mass protests against Georgian Dream, given that a sizable majority of the population supports EU accession.

In response to the EU assessment, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze repeated the government’s longstanding narrative that the problem lies not with Georgia, but rather with the EU. “We want to become a member of the European Union by 2030, and I hope that by then the situation in the EU will have changed significantly,” Kobakhidze said. “Today, the behavior of the European bureaucracy has fallen to almost Soviet standards.”

The report’s release coincided with Kobakhidze’s visit to China. Speaking to TRT World, he said: “We share common values, that’s why it is particularly valuable for us to deepen cooperation with China.”

Amid Georgia’s descent into authoritarianism, the EU is finding a new favorite in the South Caucasus. The day after the enlargement report’s publication, the EU handed Armenia a Visa Liberalization Action Plan.

Meanwhile, the domestic crackdown in Georgia is ongoing. Prosecutors announced on November 6 a fresh batch of criminal charges against eight of the country’s most prominent opposition figures, six of whom are already behind bars.

Those facing new prosecutions for supposed “crimes against the state” include former president Mikheil Saakashvili, Giorgi Vashadze, Nika Gvaramia, Nika Melia, Zurab Japaridze, Elene Khoshtaria, Mamuka Khazaradze, and Badri Japaridze. The government is prosecuting those who worked with international partners over the past year, paving the way for the imposition of Western sanctions on government officials, observers in Brussels believe.

The announcement came one week after Georgian Dream asked the country’s rubber-stamp Constitutional Court to ban three of the country’s major opposition parties, citing a lengthy report from the disputed parliament’s investigative commission, set up by GD to rewrite the country’s post-Soviet history and justify its crackdown.

Eurasianet

Originally published at Eurasianet. Eurasianet is an independent news organization that covers news from and about the South Caucasus and Central Asia, providing on-the-ground reporting and critical perspectives on the most important developments in the region. A tax-exempt [501(c)3] organization, Eurasianet is based at Columbia University’s Harriman Institute, one of the leading centers in North America of scholarship on Eurasia. Read more at eurasianet.org

Georgian government announces plan to outlaw political opposition

While Moldova celebrates pro-EU victory, Georgia shuns Europe

.Irakli Machaidze 

Oct 21, 2025

A rally in Tbilisi against Georgian Dream authoritarian ways and in support of EU membership. (Photo: facebook.com/zourabichvilisalome)

Just over four years ago, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine were known as the “Association Trio,” coming together to sign a memorandum that expressed their joint commitment to “cooperate to enhance their political association and economic integration with the EU.”

Today, the three states are moving in very different directions.

Moldova is on the clearest path toward EU accession following parliamentary elections in which President Maia Sandu’s pro-European Action and Solidarity Party scored a decisive win. Ukraine, of course, still aspires to EU membership, but finds itself embroiled in a war not of its choosing, facing an enemy intent on snuffing out Kyiv’s EU desires.

And then there is Georgia.

The country’s ruling party, Georgian Dream, has defied the country’s constitution to make a geopolitical u-turn, shunning EU membership in favor of an authoritarian system designed to cement its leadership in place for the foreseeable future.

In recent days, Georgian Dream has doubled down on its authoritarian drift, unveiling plans to ban nearly the entire spectrum of opposition parties. On September 27, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the imminent filing of a lawsuit “to declare all parties under the umbrella of the ‘collective national movement’ unconstitutional.”

The move targets opposition parties of all kinds, labeling them as ‘satellites’ of Georgian Dream’s bête noire and erstwhile governing party, the United National Movement (UNM). The pending ban confirms what critics long suspected; a parliamentary investigative commission launched in early 2025 was always intended to lay the groundwork for outlawing the opposition.

The commission’s 470-page report reframes recent Georgian history to justify the crackdown. It pins blame for the 2008 Russo-Georgian War squarely on former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s UNM administration, and claims that all major opposition parties “emerging from the National Movement” are obstructing the creation of a “healthy political system in Georgia.”

With the judiciary already firmly under Georgian Dream’s influence, the Constitutional Court is widely expected to uphold the government’s pending ban.

The government’s priorities were equally clear on the international stage. Addressing the 80th session of the UN General Assembly, Mikheil Kavelashvili, the nominal president installed by Georgian Dream’s rubber stamp parliament, avoided mentioning Russia while only briefly touching on Georgia’s occupation issues. Instead, he spoke at length about “ultimatums from the West” and the need for a “multipolar international order,” echoing a message that comes from Moscow and Beijing.

From the podium, he declared: “We are open to dialogue and cooperation, but we also demand respect and fair, dignified treatment. What the Georgian people will not tolerate is the language of ultimatums, blackmail, or intimidation.” The remarks were consistent with years of Georgian Dream rhetoric that the West has wanted to use Georgia to open a ‘second front’ against Russia in the Ukraine conflict – a widely discredited claim.

Kavelashvili did not miss the chance to pose for pictures with US President Donald Trump, telling him at a UN dinner that “it was time to start our relations from a clean slate.” He said Trump replied, “Yes, I will look into this matter.”

By contrast, pro-European Georgians celebrated on September 29 as Sandu’s party secured victory in Moldova, despite what some EU member states described as “unprecedented interference by Russia, including with vote-buying schemes and disinformation.”

From across Europe, officials congratulated Sandu on the party’s victory. No such congratulatory message was offered by Tbilisi.

Asked by reporters why Georgia had remained silent, Kobakhidze quipped: “As long as Moldova remains a member of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States), it will be difficult for us to offer congratulations. Once Moldova leaves, we will revisit the issue.” The CIS, a relic of the post-Soviet space, is effectively defunct. Georgia itself quit in 2009 after its war with Russia.

Salome Zourabichvili – who claims to be Georgia’s legitimately elected president, and is now a prominent opposition leader – hailed the Moldovan result: “It is a signal of hope as we continue our common European path with Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia.”

Speaking at a Warsaw security conference, she pushed back on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s claim that Europe has lost Georgia. Zourabichvili insisted that the Georgian opposition has not “lost yet, we are still fighting, we are still on the streets, I am on the streets.” She went on to call for more effective support from the EU.

Meanwhile Georgia also holds municipal elections on October 4, but with most opposition parties boycotting the process and large parts of the pro-European electorate refusing to recognize the vote’s legitimacy, turnout is expected to hit historic lows. In practice, Georgian Dream faces virtually no competition.


Irakli Machaidze is a contributing writer covering the South Caucasus.

Georgia PM vows sweeping crackdown after 'foiled coup'

Tbilisi (AFP) – Georgia's Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze vowed opposition arrests Sunday after police used force against opposition protesters who tried to enter the presidential palace in what he termed was a coup bid during a controversial election.


Issued on: 05/10/2025 - RFI

Saturday saw protesters burn barricades and clash with police during an opposition rally on the day of local elections © GIORGI ARJEVANIDZE / AFP


Saturday's local polls were the ruling populist Georgian Dream party's first electoral test since a disputed parliamentary vote a year ago plunged the Black Sea nation into turmoil and prompted Brussels to effectively freeze the EU-candidate country's accession bid.

The central election commission said Georgian Dream had secured municipal council majorities in every municipality and that its candidates scored landslide wins in mayoral races in all cities.

The normally low-key local elections have acquired high stakes after months of raids on independent media, restrictions on civil society and the jailing of dozens of opponents and activists.

On Saturday, tens of thousands of anti-government demonstrators flooded Tbilisi's Freedom Square after the opposition urged a "last-chance" election-day protest to save democracy.

A group of protesters later tried to enter the presidential palace, prompting riot police to use tear gas and water cannons to repel the crowd.

'Attempted coup'

The interior ministry said on Saturday it had opened an investigation into "calls to violently alter Georgia's constitutional order or overthrow state authority" and arrested five protest leaders who face up to nine years in prison.

Riot police disperse protesters © Giorgi ARJEVANIDZE / AFP


Among those arrested was a world-renowned opera singer and activist Paata Burchuladze who read out at the rally -- to loud applause -- a declaration claiming "power returns to the people," branding the government "illegitimate" and announcing a transition.

The pro-opposition Pirveli TV reported that the 70-year-old, was detained in the intensive care unit of a Tbilisi hospital, where he was being treated for a heart attack.

"Several people have already been arrested -- first and foremost the organisers of the attempted overthrow," Prime Minister Kobakhidze told journalists.

"No one will go unpunished... many more must expect sentences for the violence they carried out against the state and law-enforcement."

The government has "foiled an attempted coup planned by foreign intelligence services," he said earlier without giving details.
'Severe reprisals'

"This political force -- the foreign agents' network -- will be completely neutralised and will no longer be allowed to be active in Georgian politics," he said, referring to Georgia's main opposition force, jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement.

Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze vowed a strong response 

© Ludovic MARIN / AFP/File


Saakashvili had urged supporters to stage a "last-chance" election-day protest to "save Georgian democracy."

Georgian Dream has vowed to ban all major opposition parties.

Rights groups say some 60 people -- among them key opposition figures, journalists and activists -- have been jailed over the past year.

Amnesty International said the elections were "taking place amid severe political reprisals against opposition figures and civil society".

In power since 2012, the party has faced accusations of democratic backsliding, drifting towards Russia and derailing Georgia's EU-membership bid enshrined in the country's constitution.

Georgian Dream rejects the allegations, saying it is safeguarding "stability" in the country of four million while a Western "deep state" seeks to drag the country into the war in Ukraine with the help of opposition parties.

Analysts say its blunt pitch -- claiming that the opposition wants war, but it wants peace -- resonates in rural areas and is amplified by disinformation.

A recent survey by the Institute of Social Studies and Analysis put the party's approval rating at about 36 percent, against 54 percent for opposition groups.

Georgian PM vows crackdown on opposition after protests, accuses EU of meddling

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said that up to 7,000 people attended a rally on Saturday, in a failed "attempt to overthrow the constitutional order" which he alleged was supported by the European Union. Kobakhidze vowed opposition arrests on Sunday, adding that they "will no longer be allowed to be active in Georgian politics".


Issued on: 05/10/2025 
By: FRANCE 24

Protesters attempt to break into the presidential palace grounds during an opposition rally on the day of local elections in Tbilisi, Georgia on October 4, 2025. 

© Irakli Gedenidze, Reuters

Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said on Sunday that protesters who sought to force entry to the presidential palace had been trying to topple the government and accused the European Union of meddling in Georgian politics.

Kobakhidze vowed opposition arrests Sunday after the ruling party won local elections and police used force against protesters.

"Several people have already been arrested – first and foremost the organisers of the attempted overthrow," he told journalists, saying the country's main opposition force "will no longer be allowed to be active in Georgian politics".

Georgian riot police used pepper spray and water cannons to drive demonstrators away from the presidential palace and detained five activists on Saturday, as the opposition staged a large demonstration on a day of local elections.


Kobakhidze said that up to 7,000 people attended the rally but their "attempt to overthrow the constitutional order" had failed despite what he said was support from the EU.

"They moved to action, began the overthrow attempt, it failed, and then they started distancing themselves from it," Georgian news agency Interpress cited the prime minister.

"No one will escape responsibility. This includes political responsibility."

He accused EU Ambassador Paweł Herczynski of meddling in Georgian politics and urged him to condemn the protests.

"You know that specific people from abroad have even expressed direct support for all this, for the announced attempt to overthrow the constitutional order," Kobakhidze said.

"In this context, the European Union ambassador to Georgia bears special responsibility. He should come out, distance himself and strictly condemn everything that is happening on the streets of Tbilisi."

There was no immediate comment from the EU on the claims, but in July the EU's diplomatic service rejected what it said was the "disinformation and baseless accusations" by the Georgian authorities about the EU's alleged role in Georgia.

"Recent statements falsely claiming that the EU seeks to destabilize Georgia, drag it into war or impose so-called 'non-traditional values,' constitute a deliberate attempt to mislead the public," it said in July.

The governing Georgian Dream party said on Saturday it had clinched victory in every municipality across the South Caucasus country of 3.7 million people in an election boycotted by the two largest opposition blocs.

Georgia's pro-Western opposition has been staging protests since October last year, when GD won a parliamentary election that its critics say was fraudulent. The party has rejected accusations of vote-rigging.

Once one of the most pro-Western nations to emerge from the ashes of the Soviet Union, Georgia has had frayed relations with the West since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.

(FRANCE 24 with Reuters and AFP)

 

COMMENT: Billionaire Ivanishvili’s shadow rule pushes Georgia toward autocracy

Bidzina Ivanishvili resigned as prime minister of Georgia in 2013, but never relinquished control.

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By bne IntelliNews September 19, 2025

Georgia, once celebrated as a post-Soviet democratic success story, has quietly slipped into authoritarianism under the stewardship of its elusive billionaire puppet master, Bidzina Ivanishvili.

In their recent report published by the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute, Bidzina Ivanishvili: Governing from the Shadows, scholars Gabriel Chubinidze and Stephen F. Jones argue that Ivanishvili has engineered a regime in Georgia that now bears more resemblance to President Alexander Lukashenko’s Belarus than Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Hungary.

The ruling Georgian Dream (GD) party, which Ivanishvili founded in 2011 and led to power in 2012, has undergone a transformation from democratic coalition at its formation, to vehicle for personal rule, the authors state.

The current situation in the Caucasus country can be likened to what Chubinidze and Jones call a “quasi-dictatorship”, where formal institutions are little more than façades and civil society is under siege.

At the heart of this transformation is Ivanishvili himself, a man who, the report states, “has created an illiberal and anti-European system which leaves no political space for either party opponents or civil society activists.”

Though he resigned as prime minister of Georgia in 2013, Ivanishvili never relinquished control. Instead, he opted for shadow rule — “a dark box, a camera obscura”, as Chubinidze and Jones put it — governing invisibly and with no official position, yet with total authority.

New levels of authoritarianism

Though Georgia has long suffered from democratic weaknesses and strongman politics, Chubinidze and Jones argue Ivanishvili has taken authoritarianism to new levels.

The country’s three post-Soviet leaders — Eduard Shevardnadze, Mikheil Saakashvili and Ivanishvili himself when he entered politics in 2011 — each began their rule by promising democratic, pro-European reform.

Yet, as Chubinidze and Jones point out, “none of these leaders left democracy any stronger than when they arrived.”

While Shevardnadze brought post-independence stability and Saakashvili launched bold anti-corruption reforms, both men ultimately centralised power.

Ivanishvili, the authors argue, has gone further, hollowing out formal institutions and replacing them with an opaque, loyalty-based structure that functions without democratic oversight.

As the report notes, “there is no public accountability to the citizenry, nor to the goals of democracy or liberal pressures from abroad.”

It is not his authoritarianism, Chubinidze and Jones point out, that sets Ivanishvili apart from his predecessors, but his “ideological transformation from pro-Western reformer to anti-European strongman”, a pivot the authors say has brought Georgia to a new political juncture.

“Neither Shevardnadze nor Saakashvili imprisoned the entirety of the political opposition or condemned the European Union as harmful. Ivanishvili has done both. He has established an authoritarian system in his own image,” state Chubinidze and Jones.

The billionaire behind the veil

“Political personalities play an outsized role in Georgian politics,” write Chubinidze and Jones; “to understand the system, you need to know the personalities who run it, their psychology, where they came from, and who their associates are”.

Yet Ivanishvili’s power is not rooted in public presence or charisma. Chubinidze and Jones describe him as “a difficult case” who, unlike Shevardnadze or Saakashvili, “has little charisma and shuns interviews”. “His power comes from his wealth,” the report declares.

Born in 1956 in the small mining town Chorvila in western Georgia and educated in Moscow, Ivanishvili made his fortune amid the lawless capitalism of 1990s Russia, where he amassed a fortune through ventures like Rossiyskiy Kredit and shares in Gazprom and Rusal.

“Protectionism, patronage, extortion and murder were instruments of survival and the skills required for success,” Chubinidze and Jones note, drawing a connection between Ivanishvili’s formative experiences in the world of Russian business in the 90s and what came to be his style of governance.

A Soviet-formed, Russia-fortified worldview still shapes his politics, the authors argue. According to the report, “for the genus homo sovieticus, to which Ivanishvili belongs, political and economic power are indivisible.”

His fortune, Chubinidze and Jones note, is equivalent to 25% of Georgia’s GDP, and “his money underwrites his political power”.

Further, Ivanishvili’s “own moral concerns and financial needs are interwoven into Georgian state policy,” the report states.

A prolonged legal dispute with Credit Suisse in 2020, which resulted in hundreds of millions in frozen assets, hardened the billionaire’s deep distrust of Europe and, more broadly, the West, and spawned his allegations of “a Western conspiracy aimed at blackmailing him, undermining his political position and his financial interests”.

Former GD prime minister turned opposition leader Giorgi Gakharia argues it is these two interrelated concerns – money and power – that drive much of Ivanishvili’s anti-Western stance and prompt what analysts describe as his paranoid governing style.

This paranoia extends to his daily life: Ivanishvili is selective about his drinking water, fears poisoning and rarely appears in public. He is also eccentric, an owner of pet sharks, importer of fine art and collector of rare trees.

Behind closed doors, Ivanishvili sees NGOs and opposition figures not as rivals in a democratic contest but as existential threats to his own grip on power and position as puppeteer.

As Chubinidze and Jones put it, “he believes in conspiracy theories. He is paranoid about his security and is in a pathological pursuit of the [former-ruling United National Movement] UNM as an enemy of the state.”

This obsession with the UNM, the party of ex-president Saakashvili, has become a defining feature of GD’s system of rule.

The entire “collective National Movement” – as the ruling party refers to Georgia’s pro-Western opposition – is now framed as treasonous, with many high-profile leaders in jail, and state resources are mobilised to suppress dissent both on and off the streets.

Loyalists, not leaders

Chubinidze and Jones argue that, through “artfully planned philanthropy”, and rooted in his innate need for self-preservation, Ivanishvili has created a “stratum of officials, journalists, and lawyers privately indebted to him”.

Within the GD party, real leadership is non-existent. According to Chubinidze and Jones “Ivanishvili is the linchpin of the Georgian political system.”

Those who hold power around him serve not as political actors but as loyal executors — often former employees, bodyguards or personal acquaintances. One of his dentists and a former security detail have held senior political positions in the past.

Chubinidze and Jones employ the term “patrimonialism”, writing: “in the absence of established state institutions, a ruler controls government through personal loyalties, patron-client relations, business allegiances, and kinship.”

GD’s anti-European turn

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 simultaneously gave Ivanishvili justification and cover for both a complete break with the West and authoritarian consolidation at home, the authors state.

GD’s two-strand offensive, employing both domestic and foreign policy, has successfully sabotaged Georgia’s prospective membership in the European Union, an aspiration polls consistently show is supported by the majority of the population.

Ivanishvili – who once insisted that a businessman cannot be successful “if he is not liberal and if he runs his business autocratically” – has, since his re-entry into public life as GD chair in 2018, become central to Georgia’s anti-Western, anti-democratic realignment.

A swathe of pro-European, progressive reforms, endorsed by Ivanishvili during his early years in power, have now been reversed, state Chubinidze and Jones.

In November 2024, GD suspended Georgia's EU accession negotiations, drawing hundreds of thousands of pro-European Georgians out onto the street in protest.

Georgia’s ideological transformation under Ivanishvili has taken the form of repressive legislation targeting civil society, consolidation of political power over state institutions, regression on social issues such as LGBT, erosion of democratic structures, smearing of Western leaders and government opponents at home and – crucially – an anti-Western narrative to match.

Since the full-scale war in Ukraine began, Ivanishvili has led the charge against what GD calls a subversive “deep state” network or “Global War Party”, which it alleges are plotting to open a second front of the Ukraine conflict in Georgia, an assertion the report dismisses as baseless fearmongering.

Further, Ivanishvili smeared the domestic opposition with the same brush, claiming the former ruling UNM was not a democratically elected government, but “an externally appointed revolutionary committee, a foreign agency” under the instruction of foreign “masters”.

In a rare, televised interview in October 2024, Ivanishvili declared: “You have to ban that which is the people's enemy and the country's enemy.”

It was upon this premise that GD moved to totally ban all opposition earlier this year, using the findings of its controversial commission as a basis of evidence upon which to “issue a strict political and legal condemnation to the collective UNM”, as Ivanishvili put it. The power – essentially – to outlaw all his opponents from politics.

“Ivanishvili has reached a new apogee of power and has the ability to end all opposition in Georgia, whether it is political parties, NGOs, the media, or external Western leverage,” declare Chubinidze and Jones.

“This resembles the Lukashenko school of authoritarianism,” the authors continue, “It surpasses Viktor Orbán’s authoritarian strategy, which controls the judiciary and monopolises the media, but permits an (admittedly severely constrained) opposition to exist.”

Chubinidze and Jones also note Ivanishvili’s rhetoric in relation to his party’s political opponents. “Using the language of homo sovieticus, Ivanishvili demonizes his rivals as enemies,” state the scholars.

By denouncing the domestic opposition and NGOs as “alien” to Georgian traditional values and “agents serving foreign forces”, Ivanishvili is able to engineer public consent around the measures GD is taking to eliminate them.

In line with its Eurosceptic rhetoric, GD has also introduced the hugely controversial “foreign agents” law targeting NGOs and independent media, branding them as “a pseudo-elite nurtured by a foreign country”.

Many in Georgia dub this bill the “Russian law”, likening it to similar legislation the Kremlin passed in 2013. Ivanishvili's critics accuse him of steering Georgia away from the liberal West and towards authoritarian Russia, using the GD party as the instrument to do so.

“Ivanishvili has consistently promoted normalisation of relations with Russia,” state Chubinidze and Jones, adding that “a significant portion” of the billionaire’s financial assets remain in Russia. Here again the authors draw attention to how Ivanishvili’s personal interests act as a key determiner of Georgia’s geopolitical fate.

Chubinidze and Jones highlight Moscow’s “powerful role” in Georgia’s social media, combined with the outsized influence of the Georgian Orthodox church, the emergence of populist allies in Europe, the EU's policy failures in Georgia and the election and re-election of US President Donald Trump as factors which, alongside Ivanishvili, explain the country’s “turn to political illiberalism”.

Georgia is heading into a local election on October 4 – a vote already mired in controversy amid a partial opposition boycott and mounting state repression.

Chubinidze and Jones warn that, amid GD’s “monopoly of political and economic power”, elections have lost all meaning.

The authors argue GD now operates not within a democratic framework but under a set of guiding principles dictated solely by Ivanishvili: “There is no law, only ‘the general line’—the only source of legitimacy is the will of the leader.”

The West reacts, tentatively

“Ivanishvili is unpopular with all manner of European and US leaders,” argue Chubinidze and Jones.

In response to Georgia’s democratic decline under GD, Brussels froze the country’s EU candidacy negotiations in late 2024.

The European Parliament passed multiple resolutions condemning democratic backsliding and the Georgian government’s “anti-European course”, with some MEPs calling for sanctions against Ivanishvili personally.

But the EU remains divided. Hungary and Slovakia have shielded Tbilisi from harsher measures, while other member states fear pushing Georgia closer to Russia.

The US, however, has taken a firmer stance. In December 2024, the Treasury Department imposed financial sanctions on Ivanishvili and several Georgian officials, accusing them of “undermining Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic trajectory”.

In May 2025, the House passed the MEGOBARI Act, which could mandate expanded sanctions pending a decision by the new US administration.

Despite these measures, Chubinidze and Jones warn the Ivanishvili regime is now doubling down — not retreating.

Inevitable collapse?

For all its control, the scholars suggest the system Ivanishvili has built may be inherently unstable.

“The Ivanishvili system has no social base, and in a crisis when it comes (and it will), the Ivanishvili system will quickly crumble,” they argue.

Georgia’s formal institutions — courts, parliament, electoral commissions — function only to serve the regime, offering the appearance of democracy without the substance. “Democracy needs citizens, accountable state structures, independent public servants, and honest elections. Ivanishvili has made sure Georgia has none of them,” Chubinidze and Jones state.

Ivanishvili’s grip on Georgia may appear unshakeable, but the authors believe that, “ultimately, the separation of Georgia from the West will not only damage the Georgian economy – the regime’s greatest weakness – but will alienate the regime from citizens who hold the deep conviction that Europe is their natural home.”

Further, the ruling elite stands increasingly isolated from the society it claims to represent, amid ongoing anti-government protests in Tbilisi.

While Chubinidze and Jones do not predict when or how the GD regime will collapse, they are clear about the stakes. “Creeping authoritarianism, not democratic backsliding, is a better description of Georgia’s political tradition over the last three decades,” the report declares.

With Ivanishvili now dismantling the last remnants of that tradition, Georgia’s Western allies may soon face a reckoning of their own: accept the country’s descent into full autocracy, or finally call time on the quiet, Ivanishvili-led coup that has brought it there.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Agreement: Experts Offer Analysis

 Russia To Look Into Details Of ‘Trump Route’

Moscow will examine the details of a proposed transport corridor project between Armenia and Azerbaijan, a senior Russian diplomat has said.

Aleksey Fadeyev, Deputy Director of the Information and Press Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, told reporters at a news briefing in Moscow on Tuesday that the specifics of the project, named the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP), have not yet been made public.

“As we have already stated, the involvement of non-regional powers in the South Caucasus should promote a peace agenda rather than create new problems and new dividing lines,” he said, as quoted by Russia’s TASS news agency.

Fadeyev reiterated Russia’s position that any connectivity initiative must take into account Armenia’s membership in the Moscow-led Eurasian Economic Union as well as the presence of Russian border guards in Armenia’s Syunik province.

“These factors should be considered when working out decisions on unblocking transport communications in the region,” he added.

During a meeting in Washington on August 8, the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the United States signed a joint declaration that, among other provisions, establishes a U.S. role in overseeing a transit route through Armenia, which Azerbaijan has demanded as a link to its Nakhichevan exclave.

The Washington accords received broad international support, including endorsements from Western and regional leaders, but Russia as well as Iran immediately expressed concern over the U.S. involvement in the proposed project.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on Monday held phone calls with the presidents of Iran and Russia, Masoud Pezeshkian and Vladimir Putin, to brief them on the outcome of the Washington meetings. He assured both leaders that regional communication channels will operate under the principles of territorial integrity, sovereignty, and jurisdiction of countries, and on the basis of reciprocity. Pashinian also highlighted opportunities for broader regional cooperation.

The Armenia-Azerbaijan Agreement: Experts Offer Analysis

13.08.2025 (Caucasian Journal) The recent breakthrough agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered with the assistance of the U.S. President, which establishes the "Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)"—also known unofficially as the Zangezur Corridor— has prompted a range of mixed reactions. 

In Georgia, the deal has caused a particular divide. While political rivals like current Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and former President Salome Zourabichvili have found a rare moment of unity in welcoming the development, former President Mikheil Saakashvili has called it "the most serious geopolitical catastrophe for Georgia."

Today, the Caucasian Journal is presenting the opinions of international experts. We reached out to them to answer the following two questions:

▶ What are the likely long-term political and economic consequences of this agreement for Georgia?

▶ With a renewed and visible U.S. diplomatic presence in the region, do you believe the South Caucasus will ultimately benefit from this changed geopolitical situation both in the region and beyond?

Fady ASLY, Chairman, International Chamber of Commerce in Georgia (ICC Georgia):

Already several years ago I posted on Facebook saying that this would be a terrible threat for Georgia, because already when Azerbaijan recovered the territories and started speaking of a corridor that will go from Azerbaijan directly through the border with Armenia to Turkey. So, this was obviously terrible economic news for Georgia, because the only competitive advantage Georgia has is that it serves as an entry gate to the Caucasus and Central Asia. Whether it is the Poti port, the Batumi port, or the Anaklia port, all were developed with this idea in mind.  Now this new corridor from Azerbaijan to Turkey being in the pipeline deprives Georgia of a very strong economic and transit card in its hand and will weaken the position of any Georgian government in any negotiation regarding any issue, because Georgia would be losing. 

So, this is a catastrophe, definitely - not a catastrophe per se, but it's very bad news and it will weaken Georgia greatly, economically and geopolitically. 

Regarding the second question, it's very difficult to anticipate what could happen because the Caucasus is pretty small and Russia can strangle any transit that would go to Armenia from Georgia and from Armenia to Russia as well. So I don't think that this can be considered a victory of the West geopolitically because Russia still has a lot of power of destabilization. It is easier to destabilize than to stabilize, and the Russians will do everything in their power to keep their influence in the Caucasus.

"This new corridor from Azerbaijan to Turkey deprives Georgia of a very strong economic and transit card in its hand... So, this is a catastrophe, very bad news, and it will weaken Georgia greatly, economically and geopolitically.

But definitely, having two countries of the Caucasus aligning with the United States gives Azerbaijan and Armenia some more leverage, since they are two countries, unlike when Georgia was alone opening its doors to the West and extending its arm to the West.  Azerbaijan and Armenia were at that time really playing in Russia's backyard. So it is difficult to forecast what can happen, and I believe that it is very much linked to a solution in Ukraine, and how the solution will happen. Will there be a trade-off where Russia will let Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia go, against keeping the occupied territories in Ukraine, or not? 

Definitely, Russia will play the Caucasus card in the negotiations regarding a settlement in Ukraine. But the situation is pretty dangerous because it's very volatile, and we still don't know how it can turn. And also let's keep in mind that this agreement in Washington between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not a peace deal - it is a kind of peace roadmap. It's not cast in iron, and we will have to wait and see what can happen.

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Lukas BEGLINGER, former Ambassador of Switzerland to Georgia:

A lasting peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan and a subsequent normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations would clearly reduce Russia‘s political and economic influence in the South Caucasus and offer new opportunities for trade and economic development in the region and beyond. Whilst such a major stimulus towards diversified political and economic ties is fundamentally also in Georgia‘s interest, the latter’s geopolitical position as a critical corridor between East and West might be weakened - depending on its future strategic orientation and policies.

Both the US and Europe have an interest to support the political and economic emancipation of post-Soviet countries in the region; without doubt, such emancipation will be even more beneficial for the countries concerned.

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Alkis Vryenios DRAKINOS, Director and Regional Head of the Caucasus for the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD):

I warmly welcome the prospect of a lasting, resilient, and permanent peace settlement among Armenia and Azerbaijan. Once achieved—bearing in mind that several important milestones remain before a fully signed peace deal and the establishment of a trusting relationship among the two countries—the populations of Armenia and Azerbaijan will benefit from the opening of regional trade opportunities, as well as new transport and energy routes that reflect the potential of the Caucasus region, including its role as a bridge linking Europe with Central and East Asia.

In this context, I also see opportunities for Georgia. The post-peace deal potential growth in trade between Europe and Central & East Asia via the Caucasus, along with improved intraregional exchanges, could be a decisive catalyst—boosting the bankability of major energy and transport infrastructure projects across all three Caucasus countries. The EBRD has long expressed readiness to consider Middle Corridor projects in support of Caucasus countries energy, transport and digital connectivity, and private sector development.

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Tedo JAPARIDZE, former Secretary of the National Security Council, Minister of Foreign Affairs and chairman of the parliamentary Committee for Foreign Affairs of Georgia:

Any agreement that will strengthen peace, stability, security, and perspectives of economic cooperation is supposed to be beneficial for Georgia if Georgia itself is stable and predictable for its partners in the immediate neighborhood and far beyond it.

I cannot believe but just only hope that the South Caucasus, Georgia as its essential component, will benefit from a renewed and refreshed engagement of the United States in the region. Again, Georgia will benefit if it overcomes its internal squabbles and imbalances.

"Georgia will benefit if it overcomes its internal squabbles and imbalances".

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Tracey GERMAN, Professor in Conflict and Security, King’s College London | Defence Academy

An increased US influence and presence in the South Caucasus, particularly if the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity comes off, raises the danger of further isolation for Georgia. Tbilisi has increasingly aligned itself with Moscow and Ankara (as well as Beijing), isolating itself from the political West.  It has been hoping to benefit from the Middle Corridor – Georgian President Mikheil Kavelashvili has been in Türkiye in recent days reaffirming the strategic partnership between the two and emphasising the importance of the Middle Corridor and key infrastructure projects for regional cooperation (timing of this coincidence?). If the agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan leads to genuine change (and it is a big if, as the agreement signed last week contains more aspiration than substantive change), it could lead to a significant reconfiguration of geopolitics in the Caucasus, which would influence the trajectory of Georgia’s domestic and foreign policy developments for the foreseeable future.

"An increased US influence and presence in the South Caucasus, particularly if the so-called Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity comes off, raises the danger of further isolation for Georgia".

If US presence and influence increase, this will upset the regional powers of Russia and Iran. It could be a significant benefit if it leads to long-term, sustainable peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, ending Armenia’s regional isolation. However, if it triggers increased geopolitical competition between the US, Russia, and Iran for influence, this could ultimately undermine security across the wider region. Shifting geopolitical realities across the region have already been intensified by Russia’s war in Ukraine, leading to a rise in the influence and engagement of Türkiye, China and Iran, as well as the EU, threatening Russia’s hitherto dominant position.

 

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Dr. Ekaterine METREVELI, President of Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies (Rondeli Foundation)

The joint declaration signed in Washington, D.C., between President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan of Armenia — facilitated by President Donald Trump — marks a turning point in the region’s history. It not only sets the stage for a peace agreement but also signals deeper U.S. involvement in developing transit routes, including a corridor connecting Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan. Calling this event “historic” is no exaggeration.

This agreement opens a new chapter for the South Caucasus, one that could reshape both its immediate security environment and long-term geopolitical trajectory. In the short run, it reduces the risk of renewed conflict. In the long run, it strengthens the U.S. role in a region where Russia has traditionally held sway.

The most consequential outcome is the shift in the guarantor role for security and economic cooperation between Azerbaijan and Armenia — from Russia to the United States. For decades, Moscow was the primary mediator in post-Soviet conflicts, often using them as leverage over both sides. Now, with Russia’s influence waning, the U.S. has stepped into the vacuum. The planned Zangezur Corridor — already dubbed the “Trump Corridor” — will be controlled by American authorities, not Russia’s FSB, signaling a major geopolitical change. 

This shift also sidelines Iran, another former imperial player in the region. Tehran benefited from the previous status quo, acting as a transit route for Azerbaijan and an economic partner for Armenia. The new arrangement, which opens direct links between Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Turkey, bypasses Iran entirely. Moreover, increased Western — and especially U.S. — presence in the region runs counter to Iranian strategic interests.

Over time, Armenia’s membership in Russian-led structures like the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union may lose relevance, potentially paving the way for a gradual withdrawal. While Russia still has tools to destabilize both Armenia and Azerbaijan, its capacity to dictate the regional agenda is shrinking. Attempts to strike Azerbaijani-linked infrastructure, even in far-off theatres like Ukraine, reflect the desperation of a weakening power.

A Strategic Opening for Georgia

For Georgia, the agreement brings clear advantages. A stronger U.S. role in the South Caucasus serves its national security interests far more than relying solely on its current position as the main transit route in the region. Since regaining independence, Georgia’s greatest national security threat has been Russian aggression and interference impeding its sovereignty. Any development that weakens Moscow’s influence — especially in its immediate neighborhood — is a strategic gain for Tbilisi.

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Dr. Nestan TSITSISHVILI, Dean, School of Social Sciences,  Georgian Institute of Public Affairs (GIPA)

The historic deal signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan in DC with the active participation of the US President, Donald Trump, is extremely important in terms of peace, stability, security, economic, and infrastructure cooperation in the South Caucasus region. 

What are the political and economic consequences of this agreement for Georgia - no doubt that peace and security in the region are crucial for Georgia and its development.

On the other hand, according to the US administration's arguments (based on the complicated relations between the Georgian government and the US), it's necessary to create a new political base in the South Caucasus, and this agreement is one of the proofs of this. Politically, in my view, it’s decreasing Georgia's presence in the region. Hope Georgia will be able to regain its political position in the near future. 

Regarding economic issues - at a glance it seems that Georgia may lose its transit revenues, but in case of Will, and if managed smartly, Georgia can benefit from the new corridor by turning it into a complementary route. In addition to this, Azerbaijan's oil and gas have been passing through Georgia to the world markets for years; huge amounts of money have been invested in Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and  Baku–Tbilisi–Erzurum, and this route will continue. 

In my view US diplomatic presence in the South Caucasus region will be extremely important in many cases: peace, security, and stability; economic and infrastructure investments;

On the other hand, it will be crucial for the US to take into account the national interests of the South Caucasus countries alongside their characteristics and peculiarities.

The best scenario for me - South Caucasus countries working with the US and EU to keep peace and stability, develop economic corridors, increase revenues, support democratic reforms, etc.