It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, July 14, 2026
Wall Street needles Trump with bitter new joke as Hormuz debacle returns with a vengeance
Donald Trump attends a cabinet meeting at the White House. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst
Energy traders and Wall Street analysts are resorting to dark humor to cope with Donald Trump's foreign policy catastrophe in the Persian Gulf, where his aggressive posturing toward Iranhas backfired spectacularly and destabilized one of the world's most critical shipping routes. The situation has become so dire that financial markets have developed a bitter joke about it. Traders have coined a new term for what they now expect: the "NACHO trade" — shorthand for "Not a Chance Hormuz Opens," according to a report from the Wall Street Journal.
That acronym joins other Trump-themed market jargon, including "TACO," which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out," revealing the contempt Trump critics have for his erratic decision-making.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 percent of the world's oil passes, has become the focal point of Trump's unraveling Middle East strategy. After renewed fighting over the weekend and Trump's announcement that he was reimposing a U.S. blockade on Iranian shipping, oil prices surged more than 10 percent, erasing an entire month of price declines.
"The chance of the region and Hormuz going back to the old normal is effectively zero," said Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, told the Journal. "If anything this reinforces the impetus to invest in other pathways as quickly as possible."
The core problem, according to Wall Street Journal reporting, is that Iran and neighboring countries have discovered they can easily manipulate U.S. politics by threatening to choke off shipping through the strait. That realization has fundamentally altered market calculations.
"Oil markets and Middle East producers appear to be aligning around a new reality: The Strait of Hormuz is no longer expected to return to a prewar norm," the Journal reported.
According to the Journal, "The idea behind the NACHO trade is that the shipping route through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil had passed will remain virtually shut, with only a trickle of traffic slipping through clandestine routes, until the economic costs of its closure, such as high oil prices and accelerating inflation, become untenable."
Trump rage-quits press gaggle after CNN's Kaitlan Collins questions new war strikes
CNN anchor and correspondent Kaitlan Collins asked President Donald Trump to discuss the Iran war when he turned the conversation to attacking CNN during a White House press conference on Monday. (CNN/Screenshot)
Trump was speaking at the Oval Office to a group of reporters when he cut the questions short and lashed out against the network. The president had told reporters that the United States had plans to ramp up attacks on Iran, as Trump had ordered a new blockade against Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.
"The US is bombing Iran again. You've been bombing Iran for months now. Is this just the new normal for the American people?" Collins asked.
Trump started to complain about CNN and its coverage of the Iran war.
"All they have is fake news because the fake news would rather see us lose the war," Trump said.
Collins responded to Trump.
"You argued Iran couldn't have ballistic missiles," Collins said.
But Trump kept talking about CNN and "fake news."
"Which is really treasonous in a certain way. So we're doing another very major attack tonight," Trump said.
Trump abruptly ended the press conference after his rant to Collins, and aides hurriedly shuffled reporters out of the room.
President Donald Trump's motorcade drives near Sterling en route to Trump National Golf Club, in Virginia, on June 27, 2026. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno
Health officials uncovered a serious pest control problem at the Trump National Golf Club Washington D.C., where President Donald Trump was seen last weekend, according to reports on Tuesday. The latest discovery of flies was among several reported health violations plaguing Trump properties, NOTUS reported.
"Observed a large quantity of small flies in the storage room near the employee restrooms," a Loudoun County health inspector wrote June 30 in a report published by NOTUS.
"In another part of Trump National Golf Club Washington D.C., the health inspector flagged the property for using and storing pest control products not designed for use in a food establishment, health records indicate," NOTUS reported.
Trump National Golf Club Washington D.C. denied any wrongdoing in a statement to the outlet.
“We operate our properties to the highest health and safety standards. These so-called ‘violations’ are fabricated, politically motivated and completely without merit. We stand firmly behind the integrity of our operations and reject these baseless claims,” the golf course statement said.
Other Trump properties have had various health code violations, including Trump National Golf Club Hudson Valley in Hopewell Junction, New York, which was slapped with a "critical" violation.
Health officials, according to records obtained by NOTUS in November 2025, reported they found insects, rodents and dirty surfaces at Trump National Golf Club Westchester.
The Trump International Hotel and Tower in Chicago also violated city health codes, according to NOTUS. Last December, Chicago health inspectors reported flies, faulty dishwashers, and wastewater flooding around three prep sinks in the main kitchen.
In a lawsuit filed in December 2025, a former employee who was fired from the Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club reported finding maggots and mold in the club's soft serve machine. Trump was even apparently revolted by the discoveries at the facility.
AMERIKA SHIT HOLE COUNTRY
Trump cuts blamed as 'explosive diarrhea' outbreak spreads unchecked
FILE PHOTO: U.S. Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. delivers remarks while U.S. President Donald Trump listens during a press conference to announce a link between autism and childhood vaccines and the use of popular pain medication Tylenol for pregnant women and children, claims which are not backed by decades of science, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., September 22, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo
The Trump administration is coming under fire for its response to the outbreak of cyclosporiasis, a foodborne illness that causes explosive diarrhea and has so far been documented in more than two dozen states.
Public health officials still have not identified the source of the outbreak, which typically spreads via contaminated produce.
In an interview with Axios published Saturday, David Freedman, professor emeritus of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, suggested that the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has not been on top of tracking the outbreak the same way it has been in the past.
“Right now it’s individual state health departments that are having to speak up,” remarked Freedman, “because the CDC is really not following it on a day-to-day basis.”
Omer Awan, vice chair and associate program director for the diagnostic radiology residency at the University of Maryland School of Medicine in Baltimore, toldPBS in an interview published Monday that infections will likely only grow if the government doesn’t track down the source of the outbreak quickly.
“Because we haven’t pinned it down, that means that these cases are likely to disseminate,” said Awan. “People are still eating the contaminated food that’s leading to so many cases.”
Awan added that mass firings at the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), under the leadership of anti-vaccine conspiracy theorist Robert F. Kennedy Jr., were hindering CDC’s ability to track the disease.
“The HHS and the federal government laid off a lot of CDC employees,” said Awan. “Many of them were the very employees that would track these particular outbreaks. And the other is that, from July of 2025 last year, the CDC has no longer required reporting cyclosporiasis. It’s become optional to report this to the CDC’s Foodborne Disease Active Surveillance Network.”
Brad Woodhouse, president of Protect Our Care, pointed to the CDC decision to stop monitoring the cyclospora parasite as an example of the Trump administration putting Americans “in another shitty situation after laying waste to our public health infrastructure and gutting emergency preparedness.”
“Because RFK Jr.'s CDC turned a blind eye to dangerous foodborne pathogens,” Woodhouse added, “this outbreak spread quickly and states are now scrambling to do their own detective work on what’s causing it. The catastrophic cuts Trump and RFK Jr. made to disease surveillance and research keep coming back to haunt us, yet they want to cut even deeper to make up for their tax breaks for billionaires.”
The Washington Post on Tuesday reported that both federal and state officials have launched an investigation into whether fast food chain Taco Bell “played a role” in the cyclosporiasis outbreak.
According to the Post’s sources, some people who got sick from the disease said they had eaten at Taco Bell shortly becoming symptomatic, although others who were infected by the parasite said they had not eaten at the fast food chain before growing ill.
“Public health officials have said this season’s unusually high number of illnesses, now reported in more than 30 states,” reported the Post, “means more information and more patients to help identify shared foods, shopping habits and restaurant visits among those sickened to help determine the source.”
'Sadistic savagery': Stephen Miller linked to 'vigilante force' in new court filing
White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller speaks to reporters at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., May 21, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque
A civil rights lawsuit filed on Tuesday accuses White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller of orchestrating a deportation conspiracy with a group its own spokesperson allegedly called "a vigilante force."
The suit was filed in federal court in New York under the Ku Klux Klan Act of 1871 — a Reconstruction-era law designed to give federal courts power over conspiracies to strip people of their constitutional rights through terror and intimidation.
The plaintiff is Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian permanent resident and former Columbia University student.
He was arrested by plainclothes U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in March 2025 and held for 104 days in a Louisiana detention facility more than 1,300 miles from his pregnant wife.
The defendants include Miller, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and a constellation of private organizations — among them Betar, a nationalist group the lawsuit says bragged about running "a vigilante force."
In January 2025, according to the court filing, a representative of the Betar "vigilante" group admitted to communications directly with Miller and Rubio to hand over a pre-selected list of Palestinian activists it wanted the Trump administration to arrest and deport.
The day after Khalil's March 2025 arrest, Betar posted on X to boast about its role in the arrest.
"As we said 5 weeks ago, Khalil is on our deport list... We have provided information on many others who will shortly as well be detained and deported," the post stated, according to the filing.
That same day, Miller warned on X that those "who sympathize with terrorism are unwelcome on our shores" and "will be denied entry or sent home."
The suit also names Victoria Coates, a Heritage Foundation official who co-authored "Project Esther" — the blueprint the complaint says Miller helped develop for the deportation campaign.
The filing quotes her book, published the year before the arrests began, as saying Palestinians' "default mechanism is sadistic savagery."
The filing alleges Miller worked collectively with Coates to build that blueprint, shared her anti-Palestinian views, and was "public about his work with the Heritage Foundation" before returning to the White House.
In an April 2025 Fox News interview, Miller was asked directly whether Khalil would be deported.
"Yes, he will," Miller said. "As will anyone who preaches hate for America."
A federal judge in a related Massachusetts case had already described the broader operation in starker terms — agents "snatching" people off the street using tactics "akin to the despised Ku Klux Klan," designed to "terrorize Americans into quiescence."
Vaping or smoking found to reduce fitness in young people by 15%
Young people who vape or smoke cigarettes have reduced blood vessel functionality, breathing efficiency and exercise capacity compared to those who have never smoked or vaped, according to a study published today in ERJ Open Research.
Dr Azmy Faisal, the lead author of the study from the Manchester Metropolitan University, United Kingdom, explains: “In active, healthy young adults with normal lungs, both vapes and tobacco smoking led to worsened exercise capacity, shortness of breath, and intense leg fatigue.
“Like smoking, our research indicates that vaping can lead to harmful changes to the blood vessels, lung efficiency during exercise and approximately a 15% reduction in fitness compared to those who have never smoked or vaped.”
The study examined 75 people aged 18-30, a third had never smoked or vaped, a third were smokers but had never used vapes, and a third were vapers for approximately 3 years but had never smoked. All participants had normal resting lung function and similar lifestyles, including caffeine and alcohol consumption, and physical activity levels.
Each volunteer took part in an incremental cycle exercise test whilst having their heart, breathing and blood lactate responses measured at increasing difficulty until they reached their maximum. Ultrasound scans and blood tests were also done to look how well their arteries were functioning. Test results found that at their peak exercise ability, the vaping and smoking groups had significantly lower exercise capacity and oxygen uptake by approximately 15%. The lungs ability to blow out carbon dioxide was diminished and lactic acid built up quicker in vapers and smokers at all levels of exercise before they reached their maximum, resulting in increased breathlessness and leg discomfort compared to the group who had never smoked or vaped. Ultrasounds scans and blood samples showed signs of inflammation in the blood vessels. Researchers say these results suggest similar effects of vaping and smoking in young people.
Dr Faisal added: “These findings provide critical information for the general public, healthcare providers, and regulatory authorities regarding potential early risks associated with vape use, particularly for the growing number of young adults who have never smoked but choose to use these products. Additionally, our study supports the UK’s Tobacco and Vapes Act 2026, which prohibits vaping for individuals under 18 and aims to reduce vaping among young adults in the future.”
The team are now planning to conduct a series of MRI studies to better understand the changes within the heart, lungs and skeletal muscles associated with vaping, particularly the underlying mechanisms which lead to lower levels of fitness.
Dr Stamatoula Tsikrika from the European Respiratory Society’s expert group on tobacco, smoking control and health education, based at Sotiria Hospital, Athens, Greece, who was not involved in the research, said: “More and more young people who have never smoked are using vapes. As the popularity of vaping continues to rise, so too do concerns that it is becoming normalised behaviour, functioning as a gateway to nicotine addiction and introducing serious health risks.
“Vapes may contain lower levels of cancer-causing substances, but they can still trigger genetic changes such as DNA damage and inflammation, which are linked to increased lung cancer risk. For people who have never smoked, and are therefore not using vapes as a cessation method, the health consequences of vaping are becoming harder for policymakers and the tobacco industry to justify.”
Dr Tsikrika also commented on the Tobacco and Vapes Bill, passed in the United Kingdom earlier this year: “Ninety-four per cent of smokers start before they are 25 and 22% of 15-16 year olds in Europe are reported to use vapes, by establishing a generational sales ban on nicotine products, the UK has taken a monumental leap towards protecting the health of young people.”
At Archbold Biological Station, decades of field observations are helping scientists better understand one of nature’s oldest relationship strategies: long-term monogamy.
A new study in Animal Behaviour found that Florida Scrub-Jays that remain with the same partner for longer periods produce more offspring, while pairing with significantly older mates may reduce survival for the younger bird in the pair.
The study, titled “Breeding experience and pair-bond duration influence reproductive success but have less impact on survival in an avian cooperative breeder,” (DOI: 10.1016/j.anbehav.2026.123646) draws on 35 years of data from Archbold’s internationally recognized Florida Scrub-Jay research program.
Florida Scrub-Jays are one of the few bird species known for forming long-term monogamous pair bonds. Some pairs remain together for more than a decade, and unlike many bird species, extra-pair offspring are very rare.
One challenge in studying long-term monogamy is separating the effects of age, breeding experience, and pair-bond duration, all of which can influence reproductive success. Because Archbold researchers have followed individual Florida Scrub-Jays throughout their lives for decades, the dataset includes birds of different ages, breeding histories, and pair-bond durations. Some birds began breeding later in life, some entered new pair bonds after years of breeding experience, and others remained with the same mate for many years. This variation allowed researchers to disentangle factors that are often difficult to separate in studies of long-term monogamy.
The researchers found that both breeding experience and longer pair-bond duration independently improved reproductive success, even after accounting for factors such as territory size, population density, food availability, and group composition. Pairs breeding for the third time produced 44% more young than pairs breeding together for the first time. Likewise, pairs in which both birds had at least one year of breeding experience produced 50% more young than pairs composed of first-time breeders.
In other words, experienced birds produced more offspring, but birds that remained with the same partner for longer periods also had greater reproductive success.
The study also uncovered an unexpected pattern: younger birds paired with substantially older mates had lower odds of surviving the non-breeding season.
This finding may help explain why mate switching and divorce remains relatively uncommon in Florida Scrub-Jays despite opportunities to form new pair bonds. While changing partners may sometimes be possible, doing so could carry costs if a bird pairs with an inexperienced or substantially older mate.
The work highlights the scientific value of Archbold’s long-term Florida Scrub-Jay dataset, one of the longest continuous studies of an individually marked bird population in the world. Researchers have tracked generations of birds across the Lake Wales Ridge, allowing scientists to study behavioral and ecological questions that would be difficult or impossible to answer through shorter-term projects.
Most previous studies of pair-bonding and monogamy have focused on laboratory animals or primates. This research provides rare evidence from a wild bird population that long-term pair bonds can independently contribute to reproductive success, helping scientists better understand how monogamy evolves and persists in long-lived species.
The study was authored by Guy Beauchamp, Tori D. Bakley, John W. Fitzpatrick, and Sahas Barve. Funding supporting the long-term dataset included grants from the National Science Foundation, along with support from Archbold Biological Station, the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, and the Field Museum of Natural History.
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Archbold is a world-class laboratory located on over 20,000 acres in the Headwaters of the Everglades. Archbold’s mission is to build and share the scientific knowledge needed to protect the life, lands, and waters of the heart of Florida and beyond. With seven ecological research programs, Archbold science is deeply trusted and critical for conservation of species and natural systems in Florida. Archbold is a 501 (c)(3) non-profit organization founded in 1941, dedicated to science, conservation, and education.
Passive acoustic monitoring revealed the occurrence patterns and whistle characteristics of small odontocetes in Wakasa Bay and Aso Bay, two coastal regions on the Sea of Japan.
Kyoto, Japan -- When locals of two coastal communities along the Sea of Japan reported observations of dolphins in nearby waters, it caught the attention of some scientists. The marine environment has been changing rapidly in the Sea of Japan, which is partially enclosed by the Japanese archipelago and the Eurasian continent and connected to the ocean through shallow straits. Though sightings and bycatch records of dolphins have been reported along the coast, basic ecological information on small odontocetes, such as dolphins and porpoises, has remained limited.
Once they heard about dolphin sightings in both Obama City on Wakasa Bay and Tsushima City on Aso Bay, a team of researchers at Kyoto University headed there to investigate. They wanted to know how these upper-level predators use areas like Wakasa Bay and Aso Bay, and what kinds of sounds they produce.
"This study began through local connections: we heard from acquaintances and local fishers that dolphins might be visiting nearby waters," says first author Satoko S Kimura.
The team conducted passive acoustic monitoring from January 2022 until November 2024 in Wakasa Bay, and from March 2023 through October 2024 in Aso Bay, recording echolocation clicks, whistles, and ambient sounds produced by small odontocetes, as well as sighting information from local fishers. Locals helped the scientists deploy and retrieve recording devices and took photographs when possible.
The recordings revealed dolphin sounds coming from both Wakasa Bay and Aso Bay. However, the detection rate was low in both, occurring only about once every ten days. The whistle characteristics in Aso Bay, where background noise levels were higher, differed from those in the quieter Wakasa Bay. The team could not determine whether these differences came from sound environments or the animals themselves, but based on the acoustic characteristics, sightings, and photographic evidence, the visiting odontocetes are most likely Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins.
These findings provide baseline information on the spatiotemporal occurrence and acoustic characteristics of small odontocetes along the Sea of Japan coast. This study also demonstrates that passive acoustic monitoring is an effective method for studying animals in coastal areas where infrequent sightings make them difficult to observe directly.
These methods may also help detect future changes in marine environments and identify the species visiting these coastal waters more accurately. By further developing long-term monitoring, the researchers aim to provide scientific evidence that helps support both marine conservation and the sustainable use of coastal waters by local communities.
"With the help of local fishing communities, we were able to listen to the sea over long periods and begin revealing the lives of dolphins in familiar coastal waters," says Kimura. "We hope to continue working with local communities to better understand and conserve the marine life that shares the sea with us."
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The paper "Occurrence and Whistle Characteristics of Small Odontocetes in Two Coastal Regions of the Sea of Japan" appeared on 25 May 2026 in Marine Mammal Science, with doi: 10.1111/mms.70200
About Kyoto University
Kyoto University is one of Japan and Asia's premier research institutions, founded in 1897 and responsible for producing numerous Nobel laureates and winners of other prestigious international prizes. A broad curriculum across the arts and sciences at undergraduate and graduate levels complements several research centers, facilities, and offices around Japan and the world. For more information, please see: http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/en
Occurrence and Whistle Characteristics of Small Odontocetes in Two Coastal Regions of the Sea of Japan
NTU Singapore study shows major earthquakes can affect current sea-level projections in Southeast Asia
A weak, slowly flowing mantle layer beneath the region deforms after major tremors, causing the ground above to continue moving and sinking for decades
Earth scientists from Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) have published an international study showing that major earthquakes in Southeast Asia can affect regional relative sea-level projections.
The findings show that large tremors can trigger long-term sinking of the land. If this post-earthquake ground movement is not accounted for in sea level modelling, coastal flood risks in low-lying areas could be underestimated.
The team found that a weak layer of hot rock in the upper mantle beneath the Sumatran backarc – the region behind Sumatra’s chain of volcanoes – deforms after major earthquakes.
Although this layer is solid, it can move slowly over time. This allows the ground above to keep shifting and sinking years after a major tremor.
The study, published in Communications Earth & Environment, a Nature Portfolio journal, was led by NTU’s Earth Observatory of Singapore (EOS) Research Fellow Dr Grace Ng, Asian School of the Environment (ASE) Asst Prof Lujia Feng, and Chair of ASE, Professor Emma Hill, who is also the Interim Director of EOS.
Sinking land affects sea-level estimates
While global sea-level rise is driven by climate factors like melting ice sheets and ocean warming, relative sea level is determined by how the local land moves. When the land sinks, local relative sea levels rise faster.
This study shows that major earthquakes do not just cause temporary shaking but also initiate decades-long land sinking – known as land subsidence – across Southeast Asia.
As these long-term ground movements have become better understood only in the past decade, they may not be fully included in existing sea-level estimates. This means future coastal flood risks for low-lying regions could be underestimated.
This phenomenon could also occur in other subduction zones, where one tectonic plate is forced beneath another, in other parts of the world.
Senior author of the paper, Prof Emma Hill, who is the AXA-Nanyang Professor in Earth and Environmental Science, said: "Most current sea-level projections focus primarily on climate factors like ice-sheet melting and ocean warming, but we must also look at how the Earth moves beneath our feet.
“Our new study shows that post-earthquake land sinking is an important factor in regional relative sea-level change. Incorporating these deep geological movements into our models will help us improve coastal planning for low-lying cities."
What happens beneath Sumatra after major earthquakes
The NTU-led team studied up to two decades of ground movement data from Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand to understand how the region continued to move after major earthquakes.
These included the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 2012 Wharton Basin earthquakes.
The data showed that the ground continued to move even in places more than 600 kilometres from where the earthquakes occurred.
This long-distance movement suggests that a weak layer deep below the region is allowing the Earth’s surface to keep adjusting after major earthquakes.
Lead author Dr Grace Ng said, “When massive earthquakes strike, they do not just shake the ground for a few minutes. They set off a slow adjustment deep within the Earth that can continue for years.
“Our study shows that a weak layer of hot rock beneath the Sumatran backarc can slowly deform after major earthquakes. This helps explain why the land above can continue to shift and sink across areas hundreds of kilometres away from the earthquake.”
To test what was happening below the surface, the researchers used computer models of the Earth’s layers and compared them with ground movement recorded by GPS stations.
They found that the observed movement could be explained only if the upper mantle beneath the Sumatran backarc was weak enough to flow slowly over time.
This gives scientists a clearer picture of how major earthquakes can continue to affect land height long after the shaking has stopped.
Co-author Asst Prof Lujia Feng, an expert in using satellite positioning data to study the Earth’s crustal motions and natural hazards, added: “This study would not have been possible without more than a decade of continuous observations from ground-based GPS networks across the region. Such long-term geodetic records are vital for revealing how the solid Earth responds to great earthquakes, and how these processes evolve over time.”
Improving coastal planning
The study highlights why sea-level projections in Southeast Asia should account for both rising seas and moving land.
For coastal planners, relative sea level matters most. This refers to how high the sea is compared with the land at a specific location.
If land is sinking, water levels can rise faster relative to the coast, increasing flood risks for low-lying areas.
By showing how post-earthquake land movement can affect relative sea levels, the NTU study provides data to improve future coastal risk models, which can then inform and support longer-term planning for flood defences, drainage systems and coastal infrastructure in Southeast Asia.
Spatial distribution of b-values around Japan and the locations of magnitude (M) 6 and larger earthquakes. Colors indicate the spatial distribution of b-values. The results suggest that large earthquakes tend to occur in regions with relatively low b-values. The b-value map was estimated from earthquake data after excluding the specific earthquake sequences analyzed in the study.
Kyoto, Japan -- Japan is well known for its large earthquakes, but not all regions show the same patterns of earthquake activity. One way to understand which places tend to experience large or small earthquakes is the b-value, a key statistical measure long used by researchers for understanding seismicity and assessing earthquake occurrence patterns.
The b-value describes the relative numbers of small and large earthquakes in a given area. A high b-value means that small earthquakes are comparatively more frequent, whereas a low b-value indicates a relative increase in the proportion of larger earthquakes.
Many previous studies have suggested that b-values may decrease before -- or increase after -- large earthquakes, possibly reflecting changes in stress before and after rupture. Other studies have proposed that large earthquakes tend to occur in areas where b-values are low. Until now, however, it has remained unclear whether time-dependent changes or spatial differences are more important when comparing many large earthquake sequences.
To address this question, a team of researchers from Kyoto University and ETH Zurich set out to analyze the Japanese earthquake catalog, examining how b-values vary before, after, and around large earthquakes. The study was led by Aron Mirwald, formerly a short-term visiting student at Kyoto University and a doctoral student at ETH Zurich, together with Bogdan Enescu of Kyoto University and Leila Mizrahi and Stefan Wiemer of the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich.
The research team examined large earthquake sequences in Japan using the Japan Meteorological Agency earthquake catalog from January 2000 to July 2025. They carefully restricted the data by depth, distance from the coast, and space-time windows in order to reduce catalog incompleteness and possible contamination from other large earthquakes.
Their results revealed no clear evidence for a systematic decrease in b-values before large earthquakes, or for a systematic increase afterward. Instead, the team found that large earthquakes tend to occur in regions where b-values are slightly lower than in the surrounding areas. Moreover, differences in b-values among earthquake sequences could be explained mainly by the location of the mainshock.
"Our results suggest that, at broad spatial scales, b-values are controlled more by where a large earthquake occurs than by systematic changes before or after the event," says Enescu. "This highlights the importance of local geological and stress conditions in shaping earthquake size distributions."
These findings suggest that b-values may reflect local geological and physical conditions, such as rock properties and stress state. Although this conclusion does not imply that individual earthquakes can be predicted, it provides a stronger statistical basis for interpreting b-values around large earthquakes and may contribute to future studies of long-term earthquake hazard.
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The paper "b-values of large earthquake sequences depend on their mainshock location" appeared on 12 July 2026 in Geophysical Research Letters, with doi: 10.1029/2025GL121450
About Kyoto University
Kyoto University is one of Japan and Asia's premier research institutions, founded in 1897 and responsible for producing numerous Nobel laureates and winners of other prestigious international prizes. A broad curriculum across the arts and sciences at undergraduate and graduate levels complements several research centers, facilities, and offices around Japan and the world. For more information, please see: http://www.kyoto-u.ac.jp/en
