DRONE WAR

Russia attacked Ukraine with more than 2,000 drones in October, Kyiv says

Reuters
Fri, November 1, 2024 

Aftermath of a Russian drone strike in Kyiv

KYIV (Reuters) - Russia launched more than 2,000 attack drones at civilian and military targets across Ukraine last month, Kyiv's military said on Friday, as Kremlin forces press a grinding offensive on the front line of their February 2022 invasion.

Moscow has carried out regular air strikes on Ukrainian towns and cities, with the capital Kyiv coming under attack 20 times in October alone, according to city officials.

Ukraine's General Staff said in a statement it had intercepted 1,185 of the 2,023 drones launched last month and that another 738 were "locationally lost".

"In total, since the beginning of 2024, the enemy has launched 6,987 attack UAVs on the territory of Ukraine. Enemy drones mostly targeted civilian and critical infrastructure," it said.

Ukraine said on Friday it had destroyed 31 drones and one missile in Russia's latest overnight strike, which damaged residential buildings in at least two regions and a fire station in the southern Odesa region.

Russia has denied aiming at civilians and said power facilities are legitimate targets when they are part of Ukrainian military infrastructure.

Ukraine is girding for another season of power cuts amid the threat of new Russian attacks on the country's energy system, which had already been weakened by a series of strikes earlier this year.

(Reporting by Dan Peleschuk; Editing by Angus MacSwan)


Russia targets Kyiv in hours-long drone attack

Reuters
Updated Sat, November 2, 2024 

Russian drone strike in Kyiv

Russian drone strike in Kyiv

Russian drone strike in Kyiv

Russian drone strike in Kyiv

Aftermath of a Russian drone attack in Kyiv

KYIV (Reuters) -Russia unleashed its latest overnight drone strike on Ukraine, targeting the capital Kyiv in an attack that lasted into midday and wounded at least one person, city officials said on Saturday.

Debris from downed drones struck six city districts, wounding a police officer, damaging residential buildings and starting fires, according to city military administrator Serhiy Popko.

"Another night. Another air-raid alert. Another drone attack. The armed forces of the Russian Federation attacked Kyiv again according to their old and familiar tactics," Popko wrote on social media.

All the drones aimed at Kyiv had been shot down, he said.

Ukrainian energy provider DTEK said a high-voltage line powering the capital and two distribution networks in the Kyiv region had been damaged.

DTEK said in a statement that electricity had mostly been restored and that repairs were underway.

Reuters correspondents reported hearing explosions in and around the city during an air-raid alert that lasted more than five hours. One drone was seen flying low over the city amid the din of automatic-weapons fire.

Ukraine's military reported on Saturday that air defences had destroyed 39 out of 71 Russian drones that had been launched, and that another 21 had been "locationally lost".

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said strikes were also reported in the central Poltava and northeastern Sumy and Kharkiv regions.

"This year, we have faced the threat of 'Shahed' drones almost every night — sometimes in the morning, and even during the day," he wrote on social media, referring to the Iranian-made attack drones used by Russia.

Russian forces have carried out regular airstrikes on Ukrainian towns and cities behind the front lines of the war which began when Russia invaded its neighbour in February 2022.

Kyiv's military said on Friday that Moscow's forces had launched more than 2,000 drones at civilian and military targets across Ukraine in October alone.

Russia has denied aiming at civilians and said power facilities are legitimate targets when they are part of Ukrainian military infrastructure.

(Reporting by Dan Peleschuk; Additional reporting by Gleb Garanich and Pavel Polityuk; Editing by Angus MacSwan)


People injured in hours-long Russian drone attack on Kyiv

Reuters Videos
Updated Sat, November 2, 2024 


STORY: :: Russia unleashes an overnight

drone attack on Ukraine's capital

:: Kyiv, Ukraine

:: November 2, 2024

:: Injuries were reported after downed drones struck

a number of city districts, according to an official

Debris from downed drones struck six city districts, wounding a police officer, damaging residential buildings and starting fires, according to city military administrator Serhiy Popko.

"Another night. Another air-raid alert. Another drone attack. The armed forces of the Russian Federation attacked Kyiv again according to their old and familiar tactics," Popko wrote on social media.

All the drones aimed at Kyiv had been shot down, he said.

 In Ukraine, hopes of war breakthrough slim whoever wins US election

Anastasiia Malenko and Tom Balmforth
Fri, November 1, 2024 


FILE PHOTO: Aftermath of a Russian air strike in Kharkiv

By Anastasiia Malenko and Tom Balmforth

KYIV (Reuters) - For many Ukrainians, the outcome of the U.S. election next week and its impact on the war with Russia feels less likely to be pivotal than it once did.

Even with the Democrats' unprecedented military and financial aid, battlefield losses have accelerated in the east and Ukraine has grown impatient with President Joe Biden's reluctance to let it unleash Western weapons on targets deep inside Russia.

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, meanwhile, has criticised the level of U.S. support for Kyiv, refused to say he wants Ukraine to win the war and promised, if elected, to end the conflict before he takes office in January, without explaining how.

That has led some ordinary Ukrainians and officials to be less categorical about who they want to win the White House - Trump or Democratic contender Kamala Harris.

"If Harris wins, it will be a continuation of the sham assistance to Ukraine, which means that they will talk and do nothing," said Viktor Tupilka, 70, a former coal miner from the eastern region of Donetsk.

"If Trump wins, he will most likely push for an end to the war and give away a share of Ukraine's territory," Tupilka added, speaking in Kyiv.


"In either case, Ukraine loses (something). All our hopes are not to look at the election, but to think about how to provide for ourselves both through internal resources and otherwise."

The United States has given Ukraine tens of billions of dollars in military and financial assistance - more than any other ally - since Russia launched its full-scale war on Ukraine in February 2022.

That assistance has provided Ukraine with a lifeline for its much smaller army, but President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said throughout the conflict that U.S. and Western support has been too little, too late to turn the tide in Ukraine's favour.

A senior European diplomat based in Kyiv said Ukrainian officials were less worried about a Trump victory than some might expect, in part because Ukraine was losing territory even with the military and economic support it receives.

"At least Trump might shake things up a bit," the diplomat told Reuters.

Trump's stated intention to try to force an end to the war in Ukraine before taking office would almost certainly require Washington to say or give something to Kyiv that is threatening to Russia, the diplomat added.

But the uncertainty over what Trump would do to try to end the war is causing considerable unease.

Volodymyr Fesenko, a Kyiv-based political analyst, said that while Trump could increase aid to Ukraine and use economic leverage to force Russia to the negotiating table, he could also threaten to cut off aid to Ukraine.

"The main problem is that Trump promises to initiate negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine immediately after his victory, but we do not know on what terms," Fesenko said.

COURTING BOTH CAMPS

Zelenskiy and his government have been careful to avoid publicly siding with one candidate over the other, wary of alienating the eventual winner. Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said on Thursday Ukraine was confident of continued U.S. support regardless of who wins the election.

Following a visit to the U.S. in September, during which he met Harris and Trump, Zelenskiy said the Nov. 5 election would be likely to have an impact on Russia's readiness for negotiations even before the winning candidate assumed office.

"The United States will demonstrate the policy very quickly, after the elections, in my opinion. And from this information that I have received from the candidates, this is a positive from my meetings with them," he said.

Moscow says it wants peace, but has set conditions Kyiv regards as unacceptable. Zelenskiy has also underlined the need for a fair resolution to the war and talked of a summit later this year that could include a representative from Moscow.

Fesenko saw promises of continued support from Harris' camp as good news for Ukraine, but warned that were she to win the election the future shape of U.S. support was unclear.

"Almost no one doubts that she will continue Biden's policy of supporting Ukraine, but will this policy be more decisive or will Kamala Harris, for example, also be inclined to initiate negotiations to end the war?"

In addition to pushing for permission to use Western missiles against targets inside Russia, Ukrainian officials have publicly pointed to problems with prompt delivery of approved American aid and urged allies to deliver more air defences.

Vitaliy Novak, 53, a commercial director in the media industry, felt the significance of the outcome of the U.S. election was more clear-cut than some other Ukrainians.

"Our future depends on what happens on Nov. 5, no more, no less," he said. "This will be a pivotal moment in how events unfold - whether they will continue along the same path or we will see radical change."

But amid the debate, many Ukrainians agree it is hard to see a quick fix to the war after territorial losses in the past year, heavy military and civilian casualties, and relentless Russian attacks on energy infrastructure before winter.

"On the one hand, a horrible end is better than a horror without an end," said 20-year-old Hlib Astahov, referring to Trump's promise of a swift end to hostilities.

"On the other hand, I would not want this ongoing war - with so much effort and the lives of the best of us already spent - to simply end in some kind of fudged peace because of our Western partners."

(Tom Balmforth reported from London; additional reporting by Olena Harmash; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Timothy Heritage)

Moldova pro-EU leader Sandu wins re-election despite Russian meddling allegations

NEWS WIRES
Sun 3 November 2024 

Moldova's incumbent President and presidential candidate (C) celebrates with staff and supporters following preliminary results of the second round of the presidential election, in Chisinau November 3, 2024.

Moldova's pro-Western President Maia Sandu has secured a second term, defeating a Russia-aligned rival amid allegations of Russian interference, voter fraud, and intimidation. The win bolsters the pro-Western government’s EU integration agenda.

Moldova's pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu on Sunday won a tense presidential runoff, beating her rival backed by a pro-Russian party in what she described as a "lesson in democracy".

The election in the ex-Soviet republic that lies sandwiched between war-torn Ukraine and the European Union has been overshadowed by allegations of meddling by Moscow.


The key vote took place just two weeks after a referendum backed joining the EU by a razor-thin margin.

Sandu stood at 54.94 percent of the vote against 45.06 percent for Alexandr Stoianoglo, who is supported by the pro-Russian Socialists and whom Sandu fired as prosecutor general last year, according to near-complete results published by the election commission.

"Today, dear Moldovans, you have given a lesson in democracy, worthy of being written in history books.... Freedom, truth, and justice have prevailed," Sandu declared.
'Honest vote'

Earlier, the 52-year-old former World Bank economist thanked jubilant supporters for "their honest vote".

Her rival Stoianoglo, 57, urged people "to remain calm, regardless of the figures".

Moldovan authorities reported "attacks, provocations and attempts at destabilisation" on Sunday.

Pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu re-elected to second term as president of Moldova

Euronews
Sun 3 November 2024 

Pro-EU incumbent Maia Sandu re-elected to second term as president of Moldova

Moldova's pro-Western incumbent president Maia Sandu has won a second term in a pivotal presidential runoff against a Russia-friendly opponent, in a race overshadowed by claims of Russian interference, voter fraud and intimidation.

With almost 99% of votes counted in the second round, Sandu had 55.03% of the vote, according to the Central Electoral Commission.

Her competitor, the former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, was polling at just under 45%.

Speaking at the headquarters of her Action and Solidarity party in the capital Chișinău, Sandu struck a conciliatory tone and said she had listened to those who had voted both for and against her, adding that her priority in the coming years would be to be a president for all Moldovans.

But she went on to claim that her country's vote had faced an "unprecedented attack" through alleged schemes including dirty money, vote-buying and electoral interference "by hostile forces from outside the country."

"You have shown that nothing can stand in the way of the people's power when they choose to speak through their vote," she said.

When polls closed locally at 9pm local time, turnout stood at more than 1.68 million people, around 54% of eligible voters, according to the Central Election Commission.

Moldova's large diaspora, which cast ballots in record numbers of more than 325,000, voted heavily in favour of Sandu.

In the first round, which was held on 20 October, Sandu took 42% of the vote but failed to win an outright majority over second place Stoianoglo.

Moldova's presidential role carries significant powers in areas such as foreign policy and national security and has a four-year term.

Allegations of interference

On Sunday, Moldovan police said they had "reasonable evidence" of organised transportation of voters, illegal under the country's electoral code, to polling stations from within the country and from overseas and are "investigating and registering evidence in connection with air transport activities from Russia to Belarus, Azerbaijan and Turkey."

"Such measures are taken to protect the integrity of the electoral process and to ensure that every citizen’s vote is cast freely without undue pressure or influence," police said.

Moldova's foreign ministry said on Sunday afternoon that polling stations in Frankfurt, Germany, and Liverpool and Northampton in the UK had been targeted by false bomb threats, which "intended only to stop the voting process."


Maia Sandu's main competitor was former prosecutor general, Alexandr Stoianoglo, 3 November, 2024 - Vadim Ghirda/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.

Stanislav Secrieru, the president's national security adviser, wrote on X: "We are seeing massive interference by Russia in our electoral process,” which he warned had a “high potential to distort the outcome" of the vote.

Secrieru later added that the national voter record systems were being targeted by "ongoing coordinated cyberattacks" to disrupt links between domestic polling stations and those abroad, and that cybersecurity teams were "working to counter these threats and ensure system continuity."

Moldova's Prime Minister Dorin Recean said that people throughout the country had received “anonymous death threats via phone calls” in what he called "an extreme attack" to scare voters in the former Soviet republic, which has a population of about 2.5 million people.

Vote-buying scheme

Moldovans voted twice on 20 October; first for the president and second in a referendum on whether to enshrine the aim of EU membership in the country’s constitution.

That passed with a razor-thin majority of 50.35%, given a boost in the final hours of ballot counting by overseas voters.

In the wake of those October votes, Moldovan law enforcement said that a vote-buying scheme was orchestrated by Ilan Shor, an exiled oligarch who lives in Russia and was convicted in absentia last year of fraud and money laundering.

Shor denies any wrongdoing.

Prosecutors allege that $39 million (€35 million) was paid to more than 130,000 recipients through an internationally sanctioned Russian bank to voters between September and October.

Anti-corruption authorities have conducted hundreds of searches and seized over $2.7 million (€2.5 million) in cash as they attempt to crack down.

In one case in Gagauzia, an autonomous part of Moldova where only 5% voted in favour of joining the EU, a physician was detained after allegedly coercing 25 residents of a home for older adults to vote for a candidate they did not choose.

Police said they obtained "conclusive evidence", including financial transfers from the same Russian bank.

Moldova's EU future

A pro-Western government has been in power in Moldova since 2021 and parliamentary elections are set to take place next year.

Moldova watchers warn that the 2025 vote could be Moscow's main target.



A man casts his ballot at a polling station in the capital Chișinău, 3 November, 2024 - Vadim Ghirda/Copyright 2024 The AP. All rights reserved.

In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moldova applied to join the EU. It was granted candidate status in June of that year, and in summer 2024, Brussels agreed to start membership negotiations.

The sharp westward shift irked Moscow and significantly soured relations with Chișinău.

Since then, Moldovan authorities have repeatedly accused Russia of waging a vast "hybrid war", from sprawling disinformation campaigns to protests by pro-Russia parties to vote-buying schemes that undermine countrywide elections.

Russia has denied any meddling.

Resisting Russia, Moldova’s President Fights to Keep Power

Andra Timu, Lina Grau and Irina Vilcu
Sat 2 November 2024 



(Bloomberg) -- The several hundred people gathered inside a hall in the Moldovan village of Pirlita wore winter clothes to keep out the chill. Heating is a luxury the local mayor can’t afford, even when the president visits.

The scene was a sharp reminder of the economic backdrop for Maia Sandu, the country’s leader the past four years, as she seeks re-election in a runoff vote on Sunday that has geopolitical implications beyond the tiny nation.

Moldova is one of the poorest places in Europe, sandwiched between the relative riches of Romania and war-torn Ukraine. Sandu is determined to persuade her country the path toward European Union integration is the right one, but it’s also one Russia is keen to derail. A referendum two weeks ago on future membership unexpectedly saw Moldova split down the middle.

Sandu, 52, faces Alexandr Stoianoglo, 57, a former general prosecutor who favors closer ties with Moscow, with everything to play for. Sandu secured 42% of the vote in the first round held the same day as the EU referendum versus 26% for her opponent. The gap is expected to have significantly narrowed as Stoianoglo picks up ballots from other pro-Russian candidates.

While Sandu has enjoyed the support of EU leaders passing through the country in recent months, her opponent has benefited from what Western governments have called a disinformation campaign led by pro-Russian politicians. Moldovan authorities also accused Russia of bribing voters, which Moscow denies.

The vote comes a week after Georgia, another former Soviet state with ambitions for Western integration, backed a Kremlin-friendly leader in an election disputed by international observers and some European leaders. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Moldova could be next.

“The fact that the referendum passed is essential for Moldova’s future, but looking at what happened in Georgia we’re in a totally different paradigm,” said Iulian Chifu, chairman of the Bucharest-based Center for Conflict Prevention and Early Warning. “Maia Sandu seems to have understood that and took some good steps, but she still needs to secure more votes.”

Sandu is counting on the villages where she placed second and third in the first round of voting. In the cold hall in Pirlita, she was mobbed by people with bouquets of yellow chrysanthemums, a ubiquitous flower in autumn and the color of her Action and Solidarity Party.

Also hailing from a village, Sandu pointed to the importance of European money in building new roads, schools and sewage systems. If a pro-Russian candidate wins the presidency, she said, this support will stop.

She told the elderly audience that for young people to return to the country — one of the most quickly depopulating in the world — Moldova needs to grow its economy and that’s only possible with the support of the West. She acknowledged mistakes, asking them to give her more time to push through much-needed reforms, especially in the judiciary.

“I know that we have many problems, but we should not set fire to the country because we got angry,” said Sandu.

But the scale of her challenge was also evident. Many locals say they still don’t feel the positive impacts of European funds. They’re concerned about rising prices, scarce jobs and basics like a lack of drinking water. The pro-Russia message is that the EU is to blame.

Some villagers asked whether Christian Orthodox church celebrations would be banned if Moldova joins the EU. They said they read on social media platform Telegram that the EU will take away their land, bring war, and even forbid keeping chickens in backyards. They applauded when Sandu reassured them.

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One younger man in the audience, Anatol, said he was waiting for the result of the election to decide whether or not to stay in Moldova. He said incomes are low and prices are high and the country needs the prospect of EU integration or there’s no point in staying.

“We don’t want us young people to have to leave,” he said. “But for that, you in government should have done more, and those who contributed to corrupting the votes should go on trial.”

Sandu’s struggle was most apparent during a debate with her opponent on Oct. 27. While she stressed her stance against Russia, Stoianoglo advocated “good ties with all partners — the EU, the US, Russia and China” and stopped short of condemning Moscow’s aggression against Ukraine.

While Sandu branded him as Moscow’s “Trojan horse,” Stoianoglo has struck a more cautious tone than previous pro-Russian politicians in Moldova. He said he wasn’t against EU integration but dismissed the referendum as a move by Sandu to boost her support. He accused her of incompetence, mismanaging the economy and leading the country into deeper divides.

QuickTake: Why Russia and the West Are Sparring Over Moldova

How Sandu arrived at this critical juncture goes back a decade to when she was serving as Moldova’s minister of education. A Harvard-educated economist, Sandu had left the World Bank in Washington to take up the role.

Her reforms merging small schools in depopulating villages were so unpopular that colleagues openly betted on how long she would last, she said. But another event that put Moldova on the map turned out to be more of a defining moment.

In 2014, $1 billion was siphoned out of three state-owned banks, costing Moldova the equivalent of 12% of its gross domestic product. The crisis turned her into a prominent pro-European figure opposed to the oligarchs that controlled swathes of the economy.

Two years later, she narrowly lost to pro-Russian President Igor Dodon, whose campaign derided her as an unmarried woman, before beating him in 2020 by promising to tackle corruption. Stoianoglo is the candidate backed by Dodon’s party this time around.

Sandu’s four years in power have been turbulent as Russia’s war next door in Ukraine escalated the tension within Moldova while whacking the already fragile economy. Gross domestic product per capita is still less than half that of Bulgaria, the EU’s poorest member.

If she retains power, it will be a prelude to another fight between pro-Western and pro-Russian political forces next year when the country holds parliamentary elections. The Russia-based Pravda newspaper called the presidential vote simply a “rehearsal for the main political battle.”

Yet Sandu is popular among Moldova’s large diaspora, which bolstered her support in the first round and ensured the EU referendum on enshrining membership in the constitution ended up passing by a whisker, 50.4%. Those people may again swing the vote on Sunday.

Winning over voters at home remains the key challenge, especially given their disillusionment with the country’s future and their susceptibility to disinformation. Polls had shown support for the EU at 60% before the vote.

One story Sandu uses is how her mother confronted two women on a trolleybus in the capital, Chisinau, who claimed the president had sent her to the US.

“The stakes are much higher now because the first round of the presidential elections and the referendum showed that fighting Russian disinformation isn’t easy,” said Chifu, who expects her to win. “If before, everyone was expecting a landslide victory from her part and to crush any opponent, now we’ll probably see a much tighter result.”

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

Ukrainian official says full Russian withdrawal needed to establish peace

THE BOTTOM LINE

Reuters
Fri, October 25, 2024 

Copenhagen Democracy Summit

(Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's chief of staff said on Friday that a full withdrawal of Russian troops, and not just peace talks, were essential to ending his country's more than 2-1/2-year-old war against Moscow.

The chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, was addressing an international meeting devoted to implementing a peace plan, one of several gatherings staged as a follow-up to last June's world "peace summit" hosted by Switzerland.

"Don't expect this war to end when the warring sides begin to talk to each other," Yermak told the gathering, according to the president's website. "Don't be deceived. This war will end when the last soldier of the occupying army returns home."



The gathering was attended in person in Kyiv and online by representatives of 56 countries and organisations.

Yermak told the meeting that concerted international pressure on Russia should set a precedent.

"This will prove to the entire world that the pursuit of international conquests in the 21st century is immoral and senseless. Whatever has been seized will have to be returned to the rightful owners," he was quoted as saying.

The international community, he said, had to prove stronger than any aggressor, "however strong that aggressor might be".

The conference has been devoted to the points of Zelenskiy's "peace formula" first presented in late 2022, which also include restoration of Ukraine's 1991 post-Soviet borders and a means to bring Russia to account for its invasion.

In his nightly video address, Zelenskiy restated his determination to hold a second summit to help bring a "just end" to the war. He has called for a meeting to be held by the end of 2024.

Russia, uninvited to the June summit, has said it will attend no similar meetings, though Zelenskiy has said he wants Moscow to be present at the next gathering.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking prior to the June summit, said Russia was willing to hold talks but Ukraine must first recognise as Moscow's territory the four Ukrainian regions it annexed months after the February 2022 invasion.

Moscow has since ruled out any talks while Ukrainian troops remain in Russia's southern Kursk region, where it launched an incursion in August.

(Reporting by Ron Popeski and Oleksandr Kozhukhar; Editing by Leslie Adler)

PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

More US and European defense companies are setting up operations in Ukraine as the war rages on

Sinéad Baker
Thu, October 3, 2024

Western defense companies are increasingly setting up operations on Ukrainian soil.


Two companies announced this week that they are starting new projects based in Ukraine.


They add to a growing Western defense presence in the country.

US and European defense companies are increasingly setting up operations in Ukraine, with the brutal war raging on and presenting plenty of opportunities.

Two companies said this week that they will work more on key weapons in Ukraine, adding to what has been a growing presence of Western defense manufacturers in the country since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022.

KNDS, a French-German defense group, announced on Tuesday that it had opened a subsidiary in Kyiv, Ukraine's capital, where one of its aims is to "carry out maintenance, repair and overhaul work" on some of its systems that Ukraine's military is using.

This includes the Leopard 1 and 2 main battle tanks, the CAESAR artillery gun, the AMX10 RC armored fighting vehicle, the PzH 2000 armored howitzer, and the Gepard self-propelled antiaircraft gun.

The company said in a press statement that the new subsidiary "will support the cooperation between Ukrainian government institutions, the Ukrainian armaments industry and KNDS."

Meanwhile, AeroVironment, an American defense contractor headquartered in Virginia, signed an agreement with an undisclosed Ukrainian company to make the Switchblade 600, a loitering munition, in Ukraine, the Kyiv Independent reported.

The moves build on a growing Western defense industry presence in Ukraine.

Ukraine's defense minister, Rustem Umerov, said in December that his country had signed "dozens of new contracts" that included joint production agreements with Western partners.

German arms maker Rheinmetall has opened a plant in Ukraine and its CEO said in May that the company will open a new air defense facility in the country.

It also said that it would produce Lynx armored vehicles in Ukraine.

BAE, a major British defense firm, meanwhile, announced last year that it was opening a new base in Ukraine to "ramp up" its support for the country's armed forces.

And an unnamed US State Department official told Defense One that more American defense companies seem interested in establishing themselves in Ukraine.

But the official also warned of the dangers involved, saying no company wants their facilities targeted or employees hurt.

The efforts are part of a wider push to integrate Western and Ukrainian defense efforts, including by sharing technologies, Ukrainian weapons specialists working in the West, and Western countries repairing and storing Ukrainian weaponry.

These efforts will "allow Ukraine to become self-sufficient over time and integrate Ukraine into the broader Western security network," Washington DC-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War said in January.

Most of Ukraine's weaponry comes from its allies, but it has also dramatically increased its own production. This includes making its own howitzers, glide bombs, and drones.

Russia is also ramping up its own production, sparking concerns in the West.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a major boost for Western defense companies, with many nations increasing their defense spending.

Countries have increased their orders, and many companies have increased their production, including equipment that had stopped being made — not only to aid Ukraine but to prepare for any future Russian conflict with the West.

The benefit has been huge for US companies: Of the $113 billion pledged by Congress up until April 2024 in relation to the war, as much as $68 billion was destined to be invested in domestic companies, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.


Ukraine ramps up arms production, can produce 4 million drones a year, Zelenskiy says

Olena Harmash
Wed, October 2, 2024 

FILE PHOTO: Ukrainian service members attend military drills near a frontline in Donetsk region


By Olena Harmash

KYIV (Reuters) - Ukraine can produce four million drones annually and is quickly ramping up its production of other weapons, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in comments authorised for publication on Wednesday.

Speaking on Tuesday to executives from dozens of foreign arms manufacturers in Kyiv, Zelenskiy said Ukraine had already contracted to produce 1.5 million drones this year.


Drone production was virtually non-existent in Ukraine before Russia's invasion in February 2022.

"In extremely difficult conditions of the full-scale war under constant Russian strikes, Ukrainians were able to build a virtually new defence industry," said Zelenskiy.

Ukraine tripled its overall domestic weapons production in 2023 and then doubled that volume again in just the first eight months of this year, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told the same gathering. Ukrainian officials gave no absolute figures.

More than 31 months into its war with invading Russian forces, and with no end in sight, Ukraine now spends roughly half of its state budget - or about $40 billion - on defence.

Ukraine also receives large amounts of military as well as financial support from its Western allies.

Russia, which is much larger and richer than its southern neighbour, is expected to hike its own military spending by 25% next year from its 2024 level, to about $145 billion.

INCREASE IN DOMESTIC PRODUCTION

Ukrainian officials say they expect foreign funding to steadily diminish while its defence needs continue to balloon. Kyiv is increasingly focused on producing as much as possible domestically.

Shmyhal said the government plans to increase spending to help bolster growth in domestic weapon production in 2025.

"Next year's budget envisages a 65% increase in funds for weapon purchases. This is an increase of almost $7 billion," Shmyhal told the forum.

He said Ukraine's strategic task was to increase its domestic long-range capabilities and create conditions to have a technological advantage over Russian forces.

Moscow forces have been steadily advancing in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region and on Wednesday claimed complete control of the small mining town of Vuhledar.

The ability to strike deep inside Russia is a priority for Ukraine. Zelenskiy has been seeking permission to use Western long-range missiles for strikes inside Russia, so far without any agreement.

"Among our strategic tasks is to strengthen the long-range capability of Ukrainian weapons, so that there is no safe place in the European part of Russia where the "debris" of our drones and missiles could not reach," Shmyhal said.

During Tuesday's event, several agreements were signed between Ukrainian and foreign companies to produce ammunition, different types of drones and also to repair Western equipment in Ukraine.

Franco-German defence group KNDS, which produces heavily armoured wheeled and tracked vehicles, announced it had opened a subsidiary in Kyiv.

(Reporting by Olena Harmash; Editing by Gareth Jones)

KURSK FIENT FAILED

The fall of Vuhledar is a microcosm of Ukraine's wartime predicament

SAMYA KULLAB and VOLODYMYR YURCHUK
Updated Wed, October 2, 2024 






 An aerial view of Vuhledar, the site of heavy battles with the Russian troops in the Donetsk region, Ukraine, Feb. 10, 2023. (AP Photo/Libkos, File)

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The fall of a front-line town nestled atop a tactically significant hill is unlikely to change the course of Ukraine’s war against Russia. But the loss underscores Kyiv’s worsening position, in part the result of firm Western red lines, military officials and analysts said.

Vuhledar, a town Ukrainian forces fought tooth and nail to keep for two years, is the latest urban settlement to fall to the Russians. It follows a vicious summer campaign along the eastern front that saw Kyiv cede several thousand square kilometers (miles) of territory.

Ukraine’s military said they were withdrawing their troops from Vuhledar to “protect the military personnel and equipment" in a statement on Wednesday.


Vuhledar's fall is a microcosm of Ukraine’s predicament in this chapter of the nearly three-year war. It reflects the U.S.'s refusal to grant Ukraine permission to strike targets deep inside Russian territory, preventing Kyiv from degrading Moscow’s capabilities. Meanwhile, Russia's dominance of the skies allows it to develop and advance devastating aerial glide bombs for which Ukraine has no effective response, while a controversial mobilization drive has failed to produce a new class of Ukrainian fighters capable of holding the line.

The Ukrainians' retreat from the town comes after a much-anticipated visit by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the U.S. last week. The Biden administration so far has refused Kyiv’s request to use Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, to strike Russian airfields and other key targets, and Zelenskyy’s “victory plan,” was dismissed by some as more of a wish list than a plan of action.

In the meantime, Russian fighter jets continued to drop aerial bombs on Vuhledar, which precipitated the retreat, soldiers there said.

“(The Russians') main tactic was to encircle us from the flanks, and they did this constantly for six to seven months with constant aerial attacks — due to this tactic they managed to exhaust our resources, because we don’t have as much as they have,” said Arsenii Prylipka, the head of the press office of the 72nd Brigade, which had been defending Vuhledar since August 2022.

The fight for Vuhledar

After two years of failed attempts to capture Vuhledar, Russian forces switched tactics earlier this year. The town’s pre-war population of 14,000 dwindled to less than 100 during the heat of the fighting.

Russian soldiers began mounting sophisticated attacks from the north and southern flanks, powered by superior electronic warfare capabilities and an array of infantrymen on motorcycles, artillery fire, drones and aerial glide bombs. Moscow suffered heavy causalities.

Ukrainians have been pressuring the U.S. to relax restrictions on the use of Western weapons to strike targets deep inside Russia. Lawmakers said they expected a green light from the U.S. months ago, but it didn’t come: The Biden administration refused to waver on this red line.

It has meant that Russian command and control centers, logistics hubs and airfields from which Russian fighter jets carry deadly aerial glide bombs, are out of reach of Ukrainian forces.

Russia fires nearly 120 aerial bombs a day on average, about 3,000 a month. The bombs are Soviet-era weapons refitted with navigational technology.

“We cannot change the dynamics, and the Russians are pushing,” said Pavel Narozhnyi, founder of the non-profit Reactive Post, which sources spare parts for artillery.

Month after month of constant attacks eventually eroded Ukrainian defenses.

After two years of intense fighting, the 72nd Brigade — which never rotated out due to the intensity of the fight and the lack of a demobilization strategy from Ukrainian military leaders — withdrew from the patch of land many of their comrades died to defend.

Prylipka had said the brigade would stay until the very last moment when defending Vuhledar became impossible. That scenario unfolded this week.

“The Russians searched for weak spots in our defenses, a constant probe to find routes to penetrate the town and as they advanced they tried to destroy the entire town. All the time we are under fire,” said Prylipka.

Vuhledar served as a defensive stronghold, a fortress town atop a hill surrounded by open fields and near two major roads. From there, Ukrainian soldiers were able to observe approaching Russian forces at a distance. From that vantage point, it was easy to coordinate counter-attacks. That advantage now falls to Russian forces.

While tactically significant, Vuhledar isn’t a crucial logistics hub for Kyiv, and Russian forces already controlled most of the main roads through the town before capturing it, the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War said. Ukraine’s access to other critical supply lines remains intact.

The road to Pokrovsk

The capture of Vuhledar is part of Moscow’s pursuit of the strategic logistics hub of Pokrovsk, just 30 kilometers (19 miles) north. Its fall would severely compromise Ukrainian defenses.

The next step for Russian forces will be to drive Ukrainian forces out of the nearby city of Kurakhove.

“This line is interconnected and the enemy will not be able to enter Pokrovsk and come close to Pokrovsk unless it can drive our troops out of Kurakhove," said Ivan Tymochko, chairman of the Council of Reservists of Ukraine’s ground forces. "Otherwise, (the Russians) would have exposed their fronts to the flanks and would have received a serious blow to the side.”

“On the other hand, the enemy understands that if it does not take Kurakhove, it will not be able to seriously influence the course of events around Vuhledar," he added.

The fall of Vuhledar: Ukrainian forces withdraw after two and a half years of fighting

Sasha Vakulina

EURONEWS
Wed, October 2, 2024 

Kyiv forces have withdrawn from the town of Vuhledar in the Donetsk region, Ukrainian military command confirmed on Wednesday.

According to the crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState, Russian soldiers entered the coal-mining city in the Donbas on Tuesday, advancing from the West and South.

The US-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported earlier that Moscow's forces have also been advancing northeast of the town.

Geolocated footage published on Monday and Tuesday shows Russian forces planting Russian flags and freely operating in various parts of Vuhledar, and Russian military bloggers claimed on Tuesday that Russian forces seized the settlement.

Donetsk regional governor Vadym Filashkin said the situation on Tuesday was "very difficult". “The enemy is already nearly in the centre of the city," he told Ukrainian TV.

By Wednesday, the Khortytsia army group officially announced that Ukrainian forces had withdrawn.

"The higher command authorized a manoeuvre to withdraw units from Vuhledar in order to save personnel and military equipment and take up a position for further operations," the group said.

Related

No running water, no electricity, no armed forces: Vuhledar in Donetsk region broken by ongoing war


The storm of Vuhledar: Russian forces threaten from three sides

Ukraine's 72nd Mechanised Brigade has defended the town for nearly two years.

The scale of Ukrainian casualties is unknown at this time, however, an orderly withdrawal likely helped avoid greater casualties.
What is next for Russian forces?

Russian troops have been attempting to capture the town since the start of the full-scale invasion in early 2022. Vuhledar withstood numerous attacks in recent months and weeks as Moscow's forces tried to encircle the town.

The ISW said it is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future.

Now, they will have to first completely clear the town "to make it a useable position from which they can launch future assaults," ISW added, with Ukrainian defensive positions situated northeast of Vuhledar.

ISW previously assessed that Moscow's seizure of Vuhledar is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of offensive operations in western parts of the Donetsk region, mainly because Vuhledar is not a particularly crucial logistics node, and Russian forces controlled most of the main roads running into Vuhledar even before Tuesday.

This means that Russian forces already could interdict Ukrainian logistics in this part of the front to some extent.
Why is Vuhledar important?

Vuhledar's strategic importance lies in its location. The town sits on higher ground between the two fronts: eastern and southern.

To the south, Vuhledar was the last fortified town before the village of Velyka Novosilka and the entire southern part of the Donetsk region that Ukraine controls.

The town is roughly 40 kilometres east of the administrative border with the Zaporizhzhia region. Controlling Vuhledar would also help Russian forces improve their railway logistics, which might help them advance further.

Moscow's primary target remains the town of Pokrovsk, some 50 kilometres north of Vuhledar. Although threatening Pokrovsk's southern flank, Russian forces would need to manoeuvre across open terrain to meaningfully support offensive operations southeast of Pokrovsk.

Advancing across an open field area during the upcoming mud season would complicate matters for Russian forces. It is possible that the Ukrainian military command factored the weather aspect into the decision to withdraw its forces from Vuhledar.

And while it won't be an issue for Russian forces to take full control of the town now, the muddy roads and fields would be almost unusable for mechanised assaults should Russian forces decide to advance further.

They might decide to wait for the ground to freeze before considering the next steps, which would happen in about a month in southern part of Ukraine's Donetsk region.

Russia appears to have seized a Ukrainian town after almost 2 years of trying

Mia Jankowicz
Updated Wed, October 2, 2024

Russia appears to have seized a Ukrainian town after almost 2 years of trying


Russia appears to have finally seized Vuhledar, a key frontline town in eastern Ukraine.


The town has been under attack since early in the war, with intense fighting from January 2023.


The town's strategic location may provide a boost to Russia — after at least 18 months of fighting.

Russia appears to have gained control over a key Ukrainian frontline town, military experts said, as the town's governor described a difficult situation for Ukraine there.

Citing open sources and pro-Russian military bloggers, the Institute for the Study of War said that as of Tuesday, "Russian forces likely seized Vuhledar."

Russian forces have been seen moving freely about the town and planting flags there, the ISW reported.

Vuhledar's governor, Vadym Filashkin, told Ukrainian television on Tuesday that the situation in the town was "extremely difficult" and that "the enemy has already almost reached the center of the town," the Kyiv Post reported.

One hundred and seven of the town's civilians — out of a pre-war population of about 14,000 — remained, Filashkin said.

Russia has been fighting to seize Vuhledar — a small coal mining town in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region — in earnest since at least January 2023.

On Wednesday, the Ukrainian Armed Forces' general staff did not mention the town in its daily update of locations where fighting was taking place.

Crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState showed Vuhledar surrounded by Russian forces on three sides as of Monday.

By Tuesday, its map shows the town as completely under Russian control.

Unable to easily resupply from any direction, Ukrainian soldiers were likely trapped before being bombarded with glide bombs, Reuters reported.

Vuhledar has been targeted by aerial bombardments from the very outset of the war, being struck by Russian cluster munition on February 24, 2022, according to Human Rights Watch.

Since then, Russia has made multiple sustained attempts to take the town. A major assault began in January 2023, at a cost of thousands of soldiers, Politico reported Ukraine's military as saying last year.

The fighting tore apart much of Russia's elite 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, considered one of the country's best.

A further assault came in June, with Russia securing a number of advances in nearby towns last month.

How strategically important Vuhledar's capture will turn out to be remains to be seen.

As a long-fought-over hotspot, Vuhledar has gained a reputation as a "fortress" in the Ukrainian military, and its loss is likely a morale blow, the Kyiv Independent reported.

The ensuing morale boost to Russia will likely come at a welcome moment in Moscow — a rare win as President Vladimir Putin increases the country's defense and security spending to 40% of the country's overall budget, the highest on record.

According to draft budget documents published earlier this week, Russia has earmarked the equivalent of $145 billion for defense spending next year, up from about $114 billion.

Some economists say the war is the only thing keeping Russia from entering an immediate recession.

Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War on Tuesday cited its own earlier assessment that the seizure of Vuhledar "is unlikely to fundamentally alter the course of offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast, largely because Vuhledar is not a particularly crucial logistics node."

"It is unclear if Russian forces will make rapid gains beyond Vuhledar in the immediate future," the think tank added.

However, the town's high ground and its position at the intersection of the eastern and southern war fronts still make it a valuable target for Russia, per Reuters.

And its loss has the potential to threaten the security of all of the unoccupied southwest of the Donetsk region, Federico Borsari, a fellow in defense and security at the Center for European Policy Analysis, told the Kyiv Independent.

The town also sits about 35 miles south of Pokrovsk, a key Ukrainian logistics hub that Russia has kept under intense pressure throughout the summer — and whose southern flank is now even more vulnerable.


Russian troops reach centre of Ukrainian bastion Vuhledar

Updated Tue, October 1, 2024 
By Olena Harmash and Gleb Garanich

KYIV (Reuters) -Russian troops have reached the centre of Vuhledar, a bastion on strategic high ground in eastern Ukraine's industrial Donbas region that had resisted Russian assaults since Moscow's full-scale invasion, a regional Ukrainian official said on Tuesday.

Footage posted to social media showed Russian soldiers waving a flag from atop a bombed-out multi-storey building and unfurling another flag on a metal spire on a roof. Reuters determined the footage matched street patterns of Vuhledar.

Other images showed smoke rising over the ruins of the once small mining town, now a deserted and devastated battlefield where Ukrainian units had held off previous armoured Russian assaults through 2-1/2 years of war.

"The enemy is already nearly in the centre of the city," Vadym Filashkin, governor of the Donetsk region that makes up part of the broader Donbas historical area, told Ukrainian TV, describing the situation as very difficult.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Ukrainian military did not comment on Tuesday on the situation in Vuhledar. It was unclear whether Russian forces controlled the whole town.

"Vuhledar... the city we all fought for, the city where soldiers from different units laid down their lives, the city where I met the war with a weapon in hand," Stanislav Buniatov, a Ukrainian military blogger and a volunteer soldier said on the Telegram messaging app.

Combat footage by the popular war blog DeepState showed Russian forces throughout Vuhledar. Ukraine's public broadcaster Suspilne quoted soldiers fighting there as saying they had not received an order to leave.

Kremlin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Monday that President Vladimir Putin "regularly receives direct information from the military" including on Vuhledar, but there was no official comment from Moscow that the town was taken.

Russian military bloggers, including a group of military analysts who ran the prominent Rybar Telegram channel, touted the capture of the city, which could speed up the advance of Russian forces in Donbas.

Vuhledar has strategic significance because of its high ground and its location near the junction of the two main fronts, in eastern and southern Ukraine. Russian forces reached the outskirts last week and have since intensified their push.

Earlier, Andriy Nazarenko, commander of a drone battalion of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, said they were outgunned and outmanned in Vuhledar.

"The situation in Vuhledar is very difficult, it is the hardest because assaults have been going on for more than six months and the enemy is constantly rotating its ranks with fresh, trained forces," Nazarenko told Reuters.

Speaking from an undisclosed location during a Zoom interview, Nazarenko said his unit was doing everything possible to maintain "a window" for the infantry to be able to retreat from the town.

RUSSIA'S FAST ADVANCE

Since August, Moscow's troops have advanced at their fastest rate for more than two years in eastern Ukraine, despite Ukrainian forces mounting a surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk region.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, said that about 2,000 to 3,000 Russian troops were in the town, attacking from three different directions.

"We will not be able to hold on in Vuhledar in these conditions," Kovalenko told Reuters, saying the decision to retreat from Vuhledar should be taken quickly.

Full control over Vuhledar would help Moscow's troops to improve their logistics by using railways more actively, easing their further advance in the region and giving them positions on heights from which to fire artillery.

Filashkin, urging people to leave, said that about 350,000 people remained in government-held parts of the region, down from about 1.9 million before the war. Only 107 civilians remained in Vuhledar, which had a pre-war population of about 14,000, he said.

The Donetsk region, where Russian proxy forces launched a revolt in 2014, is one of four Ukrainian provinces that Moscow claimed to have annexed in late 2022. Moscow says capturing the rest of the province is one of its principal war aims.

Ukraine drove back Russian forces from the outskirts of Kyiv and recaptured territory in a counter-offensive in 2022. But another Ukrainian counter-offensive last year was a failure and Russian forces have mostly had the battlefield initiative since.

(Reporting by Olena Harmash, Gleb Garanich, Oleksandr Kozhukhar; Writing by Olena Harmash, Ron Popeski and Lidia Kelly; Editing by Peter Graff, Alexandra Hudson, Jonathan Oatis and Deepa Babington)


Russia captures Vuhledar after two years of Ukrainian resistance

A satellite view of Vuhledar

By Guy Faulconbridge
Updated Wed, October 2, 2024 

MOSCOW (Reuters) -Russian troops on Wednesday took charge of the eastern Ukrainian town of Vuhledar, a bastion that had resisted intense attacks since Russia launched its full-scale assault in 2022.

The advance of Moscow's forces, which control just under a fifth of Ukraine, has underlined Russia's vast superiority in men and materiel as Ukraine pleads for more weapons from the Western allies that have been supporting it.

Ukraine's eastern military command said it had ordered a pullback from the hilltop coal mining town to avoid encirclement by Russian troops and "preserve personnel and military equipment".

The Russian defence ministry did not mention Vuhledar in its daily battlefield report.

Russian Telegram channels, however, published video of troops waving the Russian tricolour flag over shattered buildings.

The town, which had a population of over 14,000 before the war, has been devastated, with Soviet-era apartment buildings smashed apart and scarred.

The Moskovsky Komsomolets newspaper said the last Ukrainian forces from the 72nd Mechanised Brigade, a unit famous for its resistance, had abandoned the town late on Tuesday.

President Vladimir Putin has said Russia's primary tactical goal is to take the whole of the Donbas region - the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk - in southeastern Ukraine.

Russia controls about 80% of the Donbas, a heavy industry hub where the conflict began in 2014 when Moscow supported pro-Russian separatist forces after a pro-Russian president was toppled in Kyiv and Moscow seized Crimea from Ukraine.

VUHLEDAR TAKEN IN RAPID RUSSIAN ADVANCE

Since Russia sent its army into Ukraine in February 2022, the war has largely been a story of grinding artillery and drone strikes along a heavily fortified 1,000-km (620-mile) front involving hundreds of thousands of soldiers.

But in August the battlefield became much more dynamic: Ukraine smashed through the border in Russia's Kursk region in a bid to divert Russian forces, and Russian troops began advancing faster than before in eastern Ukraine.

Russian forces have been pushing westwards at key points along some 150 km (95 miles) of the front in the Donetsk region, with the logistics hub of Pokrovsk also a key target.

They captured Ukrainsk on Sept. 17 and then began encircling Vuhledar, about 80 km (50 miles) south of Pokrovsk.

Russia has been using pincer tactics to trap and then constrict Ukrainian strongholds. Images from the area showed intense bombardment of the town with artillery and aerial glide bombs.

Neither side discloses losses, and each said the other had paid a high human price for the town.

Control of Vuhledar, which lies at the intersection of the eastern and southern battlefields, is significant because it will ease Russia's advance as it tries to pierce deeper behind the Ukrainian defensive lines.

Russian bloggers said Russia could now try to push towards Velyka Novosilka, just over 30 km (20 miles) to the west.

Vuhledar also sits close to a railway line connecting Crimea to the Donbas region.

Russian forces currently control 98.5% of the Luhansk region and 60% of the Donetsk region.

(Editing by Mark Trevelyan and Kevin Liffey)

 

Zelenskiy's U.S. Visit Sparks Political Firestorm

By RFE/RL staff - Sep 30, 2024

• Zelenskiy's visit to a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, sparked controversy among Republicans, who viewed it as a partisan campaign event.
• 
  
• Trump and other Republicans have criticized US aid to Ukraine and suggested that Kyiv should negotiate with Russia.
• 
  
• The future of US support for Ukraine remains uncertain, with the outcome of the presidential election potentially having a significant impact on the war's trajectory.
• 
  

In 2020, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was dragged into the U.S. presidential election campaign. This time, just weeks before a vote that could have a massive influence on Kyiv's defense against the Russian invasion, he walked right into it.

On September 22, Zelenskiy toured a munitions factory in Scranton, Pennsylvania, that makes ammunition for his armed forces, thanking workers and signing one of the 155 mm shells that are crucial for Kyiv's war effort. He was joined by Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and two members of the House of Representatives, all Democrats.

Had Zelenskiy visited the plant during any of his four previous trips to the United States since Russia launched the full-scale invasion in February 2022, it might have been long forgotten by now.

Instead, it has turned into a flashpoint for Republicans, creating controversy that marred his the nearly weeklong visit to the United States, Ukraine's biggest backer, at a time when Russia is making gains on the battlefield, decimating Ukraine's energy infrastructure as winter approaches, and counting on Western support for Kyiv to wither.

Battleground

Scranton is President Joe Biden's hometown. Pennsylvania is a crucial battleground state whose voters could end up deciding the November 5 election between Republican former President Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.

For Zelenskiy, the factory tour was meant "to demonstrate and show…that the assistance to Ukraine is beneficial to the United States itself, because this assistance makes it possible to create new jobs," Alyona Getmanchuk, director of the Ukrainian think tank New Europe Center and a nonresident senior fellow at the U.S.-based Atlantic Council Eurasia Center, told RFE/RL in Kyiv.

Trump, she said, apparently "perceived this as an attempt to…influence the electoral balance, which is very fragile in the state of Pennsylvania. That is, he saw it exclusively in the context of the election."

As Zelenskiy's U.S. trip continued with speeches at the United Nations and meetings with Biden and Harris at the White House, Republicans lashed out over the factory tour. The speaker of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson, called it "a partisan campaign event" and demanded Zelenskiy "immediately fire" his ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova.

Charles Kupchan, an analyst at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, said the munitions plant visit "backfired."

"It's more an indication of the polarized debate between Democrats and Republicans than it is about any missteps taken by Zelenskiy," he told RFE/RL.

'Much More Difficult'

Mykola Byelyeskov, an analyst at the Ukrainian government-backed National Institute for Strategic Studies in Kyiv, suggested the U.S. election campaign makes navigating ties with Kyiv's most crucial backer particularly tricky.

"Zelenskiy is doing his best" on the U.S. trip, Byelyeskov told RFE/RL. "We see some results. I'm sure that we'll see more results. And we need to deal with every single faction in U.S. politics. And we are trying to do this. And it's much more difficult during the election season."

For Biden, it's also "very difficult to take radical steps that in his mind might bring the issue of escalation closer. Because all the surveys in the U.S., domestic ones, they say that the American population is indeed concerned with hypothetical nuclear escalation," he said. "That's why it makes it more difficult for Ukraine to argue for various things that we need."

During the visit, Zelenskiy did not secure a public promise that the United States would permit Kyiv to strike deeper into Russia with U.S. long-range missiles.

A group of Republicans in the House held up $61 billion in mostly military aid for Ukraine for six months, leading to a deficit of ammunition on the battlefield, in part on the grounds that the money could be better spent at home. The United States spends the majority of the aid money at home on restocking arms and equipment sent to Ukraine, and the trip to Scranton highlighted that fact.

Johnson had been instrumental in eventually getting the package through; his public ire over the plant visit signaled goodwill over that development is gone.

Kurt Volker, a Pennsylvania native who served as a special envoy to Ukraine under Trump in 2017-2019, called the timing of the factory tour "a huge mistake."

"It is a very sensitive time, a sensitive issue, a sensitive state -- like, the key swing state. It is just playing with fire, and Ukraine should do everything possible to avoid being a political subject in our election," said Volker, who is now an analyst at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington.

Way Back When

Lucian Kim, senior Ukraine analyst for the Crisis Group, called the visit a "misstep" on Zelenskiy's part that opened him up for criticism from opponents of aid for Ukraine within the Republican Party faction known as MAGA Republicans for their unyielding support for Trump and his policies.

"Bilateral U.S. support has been one of the foundations of Ukrainian foreign policy," Kim said. "That level of bipartisan support now seems to be in question. The MAGA wing, which is unsympathetic to Ukraine, is increasingly defining the Republican party."

The Pennsylvania plant visit was at last one factor raising doubts about an expected meeting between Zelenskiy and Trump -- whose relationship has been colored for years by a phone call in 2019, just months after the Ukrainian leader's election, that led to Trump's impeachment -- would take place.

Trump was impeached by the then-Democratic-controlled House of Representatives in December 2019 over the phone call in which he was accused of pressuring Zelenskiy to dig up dirt on the Biden family's activities in Ukraine. He was acquitted by the Senate, then controlled by the Republicans, in February 2020.

Trump took aim at Zelenskiy several times. At a campaign stop on September 25, he repeated his description of the Ukrainian president as "the greatest salesman in the world" -- a reference to the tens of billions of dollars in aid lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have approved since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion.

'Proposals For Surrender'

He also repeated his argument that Kyiv should have reached an agreement with Russia to stave off or end the invasion. "Any deal -- the worst deal -- would've been better than what we have now," he asserted. "If they made a bad deal, it would've been much better. They would've given up a little bit and everybody would be living."

Trump has said he would bring an end to Russia's war against Ukraine quickly if he is elected, several times saying it would happen even before the inauguration in January -- a claim he made again when he and Zelenskiy met in New York on September 27. He has not said how he would accomplish this, but his comments have raised concerns his efforts would involve exhorting Ukraine to hand territory to Russia.

On the main purposes of Zelenskiy's U.S. trip was to present Biden and others with a "victory plan" for the war against the Russian invasion, though details have not been released. Trump, in his debate against Harris on September 10, declined to answer directly when asked whether he wants Ukraine to win, saying, "I want the war to stop."

On September 26, Harris said suggestions that Kyiv should cede territory for the sake of peace are "dangerous and unacceptable." Such calls are "proposals for surrender," she said.

A Meeting In New York

In an interview with The New Yorker ahead of his U.S. visit, Zelenskiy said, "Trump doesn't really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how." He also said JD Vance, Trump's running mate, is "too radical" and has suggested he wants Ukraine "to give up our territories."

The atmosphere seemed warmer when Zelenskiy and Trump held talks at the Trump Tower in New York, with Trump praising Zelenskiy for his conduct during the impeachment process -- "he was a piece of steel" -- but there was no sign of a change in Trump's attitude toward the Russian invasion.

Trump again offered no details on how he would seek an end to the war, saying he believes that "we're going to get it resolved very quickly" if he wins the presidency. "If we have a win, I think long before January 20…we can work out something that's good for both sides this time," Trump said before the two sat down for the meeting.

"It's a shame but this is a war that should have never happened, and we'll get it solved," Trump said after the meeting. "It is a complicated puzzle.... Too many people dead."

In a Telegram post after what he called a “very meaningful meeting,” Zelenskiy said that he had presented his “victory plan” to Trump and that they “discussed used many details.”

"We have a common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. The Ukrainians must win," he said.

Whether Zelenskiy's visit will affect the outcome of the U.S. election is an open question.

"Foreign policy issues in general don't determine [U.S.] electoral outcomes. People vote on the economy, on immigration, on crime, what's on their radar screen on a day-to-day basis," Kupchan said.

And exactly how a win for Trump or for Harris might change the course of the war is also unclear.

Kupchan said that despite Trump's rhetoric, he will struggle to cut a deal with Putin if elected and likely end up approving aid for Ukraine.

"Trump would not want to be the American president who lost Ukraine. And so even if he gets elected and tries to negotiate an end game, he too is going to end up having to send support to Ukraine," he said.

By RFE/RL