Wednesday, March 18, 2020

BLACK SWAN COVID-19

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A “black swan” is the term of art for something that is highly improbable, even unimaginable. ... And the facile willingness to see crises as black swans has provided policymakers cover for failing to act in the face of clear and present dangers from climate change to health care to economic insecurity.

No, the coronavirus pandemic wasn't an 'unforseen problem' - The Washington Post


https://www.washingtonpost.com › outlook › 2020/03/17 › no-coronavirus-...

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Black Swan Definition - Investopedia


https://www.investopedia.com › Investing › Markets


Mar 11, 2020 - Black swan events can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they cannot be predicted, can only be prepared for by ...

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Black swan theory - Wikipedia


https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Black_swan_theory


The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often ...
‎Background · ‎Coping with · ‎Epistemological approach · ‎See also


Black Swans Started The Selloff, Now Economic Gravity Will ...


https://www.forbes.com › sites › michaelcannivet › 2020/03/11 › black-sw...


6 days ago - Nicholas Nassim Taleb wrote a book on this subject titled, The Black Swan. ... Pandemics have always been a potential ‘black swan’ risk to markets. ... With COVID-19 causing an unprecedented disruption in global travel, the energy industry faces its biggest demand shock since the financial ...

Is coronavirus really a black swan event? - The Week


https://theweek.com › articles › coronavirus-really-black-swan-event


Mar 8, 2020 - Both the long economic expansion and 2020 presidential race seem ... Politico reports, "Trump faces 'black swan' threat to the economy and ...

Black Swan Definition from Financial Times Lexicon


markets.ft.com › research › Lexicon › Term › term=black-swan


A black swan in markets is an event that has not occurred in the past, thus rendering useless risk management models based on historic data. Such a risk model ...

Black Swan Event - Guide to Unpredictable Catastrophic Events


https://corporatefinanceinstitute.com › Resources › Knowledge › Finance


A black swan event, a phrase commonly used in the world of finance, is an extremely negative event or occurrence that is impossibly difficult to predict. In other ...

What does coronavirus 'Black Swan' mean for markets?


https://euobserver.com › opinion
2 hours ago - ... and raised concerns that the economy is moving towards a sharp slowdown. The Black Swan of the coronavirus infection epidemic launched ..
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Roubini warns on 'severe' coronavirus recession, says everyone needs $1K payment


Famed economist Nouriel Roubini predicted that a recession from the worldwide coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak will be “more severe” than the global financial crisis, but fiscal pump-priming is critical to mitigating the impact.

With governments around the world resorting to extreme measures to keep citizens indoors and away from large gatherings, many on Wall Street are now expecting a global recession. Known as “Dr. Doom” for his gloomy economic predictions, Roubini added to those voices by telling Yahoo Finance on Tuesday that markets have reasons to be downbeat.

“For now, there is not much to be optimistic [about], and what we can hope is if there’s going to be the right stimulus — and it has to be something of at least 3% of GDP — this is going to be a very severe, but short recession,” Roubini told “On The Move” in an interview.

In order to counteract the widening effects of social distancing, President Donald Trump and his top advisors are currently debating a massive stimulus — including cutting every American a check.

Roubini agreed, suggesting that Congress give $1,000 to “every single U.S. resident” before it’s too late.

“It doesn’t matter if you’re young, old, employed, unemployed, student, formerly employed, partially employed, hourly worker, contractor, gig, or small business,” the New York University economist said.

“Everybody needs at $1,000 or otherwise we’ll end up in the Great Depression at this point.”
Reality will bite soon

Retail and manufacturing data this week offered investors a small hint of the ugliness the pandemic has in store for the economy — and neither figure was pretty.

With that in mind, Roubini expects the recession will start during the current quarter, as the pandemic spurs mass closures of businesses and lost wages for many hourly and service sector workers. He forecasted a contraction in economic growth through the second quarter, and “most likely” in Q3.

“But if we have the monetary easing we have right now, if we control the pandemics by doing systematic quarantines, maybe by June-July the pandemic is stopped, and maybe by the fourth quarter of this year we are going to have an economic recovery,” he said.

The economist added that the U.S. needs “fiscal stimulus,” since the Federal Reserve has done “everything under the sun.” Within the space of a week, the Fed has cut rates to zero, and thrown trillions at the market in an effort to backstop financial institutions, non-bank corporations and lending markets overall.

Yet Roubini pointed out that what the economy actually needs is fiscal stimulus to backstop falling private demand — especially as exports, consumption, residential investment, and capital expenditures collapse.
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THOSE WHO OPPOSE MEDICARE FOR ALL AS TOO COSTLY  ARE THOSE WHO APPROVED THE WAR IN IRAQ WITH NO BUDGET OR FUNDING REQUIREMENTS OR LIMITS COSTING AMERICANS TRILLIONS IN DEBT FINANCING.
THE WAR WAS SO CORRUPT THAT THE USA LOST BILLIONS TO THE LIKES OF HALLIBURTON IN CONTRACTING OUT COST OVERRUNS ACCORDING TO THE INSPECTOR GENERAL 
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