Damage from Trump's trade wars won't heal quickly: analysts

MONOPOLY CAPITALISM VS STATE CAPITALISM

Issued on: 19/10/2020 - 

The trade war with China is just one way that US President Donald Trump disrupted the global economy STR AFP/File


Paris (AFP)

After four years in office, Donald Trump has failed to achieve his promise to eliminate the US trade deficit, and dealt a lasting blow to the multilateral economic system that global trade is based upon, analysts say.

But even if Democrat Joe Biden wins the presidential election as most opinion polls currently show, US trade policy is likely to maintain a protectionist streak and the confrontation with China to persist.

One of Trump's main 2016 campaign themes was that the United States -- the world's biggest economy -- had been taken advantage of by its trade partners and he pledged to shake up global trade arrangements and eliminate the nation's trade deficit.

Trump has indeed shaken up the global trading system but the US trade deficit has grown under his presidency, and analysts say he has little to show for his efforts.

"Trump's trade policies have delivered few tangible benefits to the US economy while undercutting the multilateral trading system, disrupting long-standing alliances with US trading partners, and fomenting uncertainty," said Cornell University professor Eswar Prasad.

While the US trade deficit with China -- which was Trump's main target -- has indeed shrunk, imports from Canada and Mexico have jumped, deepening the overall deficit.

The import tariff increases that Washington has imposed on many products have "protected American manufacturers", according to Gianluca Orefice, an economics professor at the University of Paris-Dauphine.

But those tariffs also "raised production costs" for US industry and demonstrated the extent of the reliance on Chinese suppliers.

- 'Breaking not building' -

The global economic infrastructure is now in a deep state of flux.

"Obviously his policy has been deeply damaging with respect to Europe, to the WTO, which will be hard to repair," said Edward Alden, a journalist and author who specialises on US trade policy and who is currently a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank.

Trump's refusal to appoint new judges has paralysed the World Trade Organization's dispute resolution system, hobbling the arbitrator of the world's multilateral trading system.

"Donald Trump has shown he is capable of breaking, but incapable of building," said Sebastien Jean, director of CEPII, the main French institute for research into international economics.

"When one looks at what he got from China one is tempted to say: All that for that?" he added.

The truce in the US-China trade war reached in January left unsolved major points of contention such as intellectual property theft and forced technology transfers.

Meanwhile, "the Trump administration's erratic statements and policy decisions have resulted in the US being perceived as an unreliable and untrustworthy trading partner," said Cornell's Prasad.

This has led certain countries to go around the US and conclude bilateral or multilateral trade pacts, such as when Pacific nations went ahead with a deal after Trump pulled his country out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Trump had vaunted his deal-making prowess as a businessman before his election, but he has shown little taste for intricate and intense multilateral trade negotiations.

Instead he prefers to air grievances against German cars and a French tax on the big tech giants.

- Changing the dynamic -

Trump's four years in office have resulted in "the weakening of the rules-based multilateral trading system, embodied by the WTO, that the US was instrumental in setting up," said Prasad.

That could make it more difficult to achieve much in the way of cooperation to support and sustain a recovery in the global economy from the novel coronavirus crisis.

US journalist Alden does credit Trump with successfully renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico, an effort that was supported by both Democrats and Republicans.

CEPII's Jean also credits Trump with changing the dynamic concerning China, which helped the EU change its policy towards Beijing, including several European countries joining the US in banning 5G mobile equipment from Chinese manufacturer Huawei.

The Brussels-based European think tank Bruegel said it believes that a Biden victory would mean a return to more courteous US style of diplomacy.

But the content may not change that much.

"The differences between Trump and Biden on trade are smaller than on many other issues," said Alden.

The positions of both Democrats and Republicans have hardened in recent years towards China, which is now viewed as a rival that needs to be contained as it has not evolved into a liberal market economy as had been hoped.

"Under either candidate, the trade war is likely to spread," said Vicky Redwood at Capital Economics.

"The trade war was basically inevitable given China's economic rise and persistence with high levels of state intervention rather than adoption of market forces," she said.

© 2020 AFP

French health workers ‘traumatised’ as Covid-19 resurges


Issued on: 10/10/2020 - 16:07

A medical worker prepares to enter the room of a patient suffering from the coronavirus disease in the Intensive Care Unit at the Clinique Bouchard-ELSAN private hospital in Marseille, France, September 21, 2020. © Eric Gaillard, REUTERS
Text by:Bahar MAKOOI
5 min

After having battled the first spike of Covid-19 infections last spring, nurses in intensive care wards in and near Paris tell FRANCE 24 that exhausted health workers are frightened by the virus’s resurgence.

Five months since the lifting of the almost two-month-long lockdown that helped suppress France’s Covid-19 caseload, the coronavirus has resurged as more people return to circulation. The country recorded more than 20,000 new cases on Friday, a record daily tally.

This comes after Paris and three neighbouring regions were put on the top coronavirus alert level on Tuesday, shutting the City of Lights’ iconic cafés and bars for at least 15 days. That same day, 40 percent of beds in the intensive care units of the Paris region were occupied by Covid-19 patients.

Nurses in the region’s hospitals are anxious once more; they remember all too well the panic in March, at the peak of the Covid-19 crisis. “We’re going to be there for whoever needs us. We don’t ask ourselves any questions, we just do what we’ve got to do and get on it with it,” said Isabelle*, a night nurse at Melun Hospital southeast of Paris.

“How could a country like ours have faced a shortage of equipment?” she asked. “I’ll never forget having to wear the same surgical mask for 12 hours straight, having to wear a bin bag as a gown, the risks for my family. I had Covid-19 symptoms, but I had to go to work anyway.”


‘A lot of them will never get over it’

Isabelle was one of the first nurses at her hospital to deal with serious coronavirus cases. She worked six days a week, more than 50 hours in total. She said she herself is all right, but expressed concern about her “traumatised” colleagues. “On more than one occasion we had pits in our stomachs because there was no more room in intensive care. We had to make choices as soon as space opened up. Many patients died on the floor [outside the intensive care ward]. Placing the deceased in bags and seeing them leave for the mortuary without even being washed – that was hard.”

Student nurses were called in as reinforcements. One of the students Isabelle worked with has since dropped out, too upset by the experience to continue. “We didn’t even have time to train them,” she said. “They really went through the wringer. You shouldn’t have to go through something like that when you’re 20. A lot of them will never get over it. How could the government let something like that happen?”

Several health workers’ unions criticised the decision to bring in student nurses in the early days of the pandemic. It was the use of “cheap labour who were asked to put aside their studies”, said Christophe Prudhomme, the left-wing CGT union’s spokesman for emergency medical workers.

“It’s like the hospital system itself is on a ventilator machine,” he told FRANCE 24. “Following budget cuts after budget cuts, things have to be done at the last minute – and it’s exhausting.”

The desire to volunteer is flagging amid the exhaustion – in contrast to the situation in March, when volunteers swelled the ranks of staff combatting Covid-19 in intensive care wards.

‘We’re not superheroes’

Another nurse, Audrey, volunteered at Kremlin-Bicêtre Hospital in Paris’s southern suburbs because she had worked in intensive care there a few years previously. “To start with, I didn’t really think about it,” she said. “But it was too difficult for my children, and I’m worried about my in-laws, with whom we live – they’re categorised as vulnerable.”

“Every evening I’d have to go in through the cellar, shower and wash all my clothes,” Audrey continued. “At the end of a shift my head would be spinning; I’d feel nauseous from wearing a FFP2 mask for hours on end without a break.” After a few difficult days, she resolved to take more breaks and take her mask off more often.

The sense of fatigue from the acute stage of the pandemic has still not gone away – despite the nightly round of applause in support of health workers and the influx of donations during that period. “We’re not superheroes,” Audrey said. “People are tired of the psychological burden caused by the pandemic – and there’s another dimension to it when you’re on the coronavirus front line. My colleagues and I didn’t have a peaceful summer; we were too worried about the rising number of cases.”

Nevertheless, there have been some positive changes over the past few months, Isabelle noted: “We now know a lot more about the disease and how to stop it from spreading.”

A doctor at the same hospital, Arnaid Mori, agreed: “We’ve got better at detecting it and managing it,” he said.

“Last time, we had to close the surgical wards,” said Mori, a surgeon specialising in the digestive system who was drafted onto the Covid-19 front line. “But this time we’re asking to be able to continue performing other operations; at the very least, we should be able to operate on some patients such as those suffering from cancer, because a few months’ delay could have a life-threatening impact,” he said.

Delays in cancer diagnosis and treatment during the initial stage of the pandemic could result in excess mortality of two to five percent, according to a study by the Gustave Roussy Institute, a cancer research centre near Paris.

One potential pitfall in the weeks to come, Prudhomme said, is a lack of ventilators to go with intensive-care beds. “We think at least 12,000 machines are needed. France has a lot more ventilators than before – but only 5,500 on hospital beds.”

France has enough ventilators in storage for 29,000 patients, Health Minister Olivier Véran announced at the end of September. However, in order to free up 12,000 beds, “if necessary on any given day”, operating theatres and recovery wards would have to be dedicated to treating Covid-19 patients.

This would force surgical operations to be postponed once again.

*Name has been changed.

This article has been translated from the original in French.

Tower of London ravens re-adapt to life after lockdown

CORVIDS VS COVID
Issued on: 19/10/2020 - 

The ravens at the Tower of Raven are some of the world's most famous birds

 TOLGA AKMEN AFP


London (AFP)

Chris Skaife has one of the most important jobs in Britain. As Yeoman Warder Ravenmaster at the Tower of London, he is responsible for the country's most famous birds.

According to legend firmly rooted in Britain's collective imagination, if all the ravens were to leave the Tower, the kingdom would collapse and the country be plunged into chaos.

Coronavirus lockdown restrictions saw tourist attractions across the country close their doors, including the imposing 1,000-year-old royal fortress on the banks of the River Thames.

That left Skaife with an unprecedented challenge of how to entertain the celebrated avian residents, who suddenly found themselves with no one to play with -- or rob food from.

It also raised fears the birds -- known as the guardians of the Tower -- would fly away to try to find tasty morsels elsewhere, and worse still, risk the legend coming to pass.

- Royal decree -

There are eight ravens in captivity in the Tower of London: Merlina, Poppy, Erin, Jubilee, Rocky, Harris, Gripp and George.

A royal decree, purportedly issued in the 17th century, stated there must be six on site at any one time but Skaife said he keeps two as "spares", "just in case".

They are free to roam the grounds but to prevent them from flying too far, their wings are trimmed back slightly.

Back in March when lockdown began, Skaife -- who is in his 50s and a retired staff sergeant and former drum major in the Princess of Wales's Royal Regiment -- was furloughed.

But he still came to work to look after his majestic feathered charges, rotating feeding and caring duties with his three assistants.

"During that period of time, the ravens didn't actually see anybody," he told AFP.

"There were slight changes that I noticed. For instance, I had to keep them occupied without the public being there (and) there were less things for them to do.

"So I gave them enrichment toys that would help them enjoy their day."

With no people around, he put balloons, ladders and even mirrors in their cages to keep them entertained, and hid food around the Tower grounds for them to find.

- Slim pickings -

Breakfast time involves Skaife, in the distinctive black and red uniform of the "Beefeaters", distributing a meal of chicks and mice, which the ravens cheerfully devour.

Skaife's favourite is Merlina, he reveals with a smile.

She has become an internet favourite from his frequent posts and videos of her on his Instagram and Twitter accounts, which have more than 120,000 followers.

Once feeding time is over, he opens the cages on the south lawn to allow them to stretch their wings.

The Tower reopened its doors on July 10 but the pandemic has had a devastating effect on visitor numbers.

Some 60,000 people visited the Tower every week in October 2019 but it is now only 6,000, according to Historic Royal Palaces, which manages the site.

During the three-month national lockdown, Skaife said the ravens were given more freedom to explore other parts of the Tower.

But to be doubly sure they didn't fly off completely, their wings were clipped back further.

- Caged confinement -

The birds are now kept in their cages more often to make sure they eat enough, as there are slim pickings from the Tower's rubbish bins because of the reduced footfall.

"I don't particularly like doing it," said Skaife.

He says the ravens may be kept in cages but the Tower is their real home.

"So, I would never want to keep a raven in an enclosure."

Now, as life returns to a semblance of normality, the ravens are re-adapting to seeing more humans again and their old routine.

"Of course, we don't want the legend to come true," he said.

video-phz/kjm/dl/rbu

© 2020 AFP

Thousands of indigenous Colombians march on Bogota demanding end to violence


Issued on: 19/10/2020 - 

Thousands of indigenous activists arrived in Bogota on Sunday, calling for an end to violence and greater territorial rights Raul ARBOLEDA AFP

Bogota (AFP)

Thousands of indigenous Colombians arrived in the country's capital on Sunday, demanding a meeting with President Ivan Duque and an end to growing violence in their territories.

The demonstrators are also asking that they be consulted on major development projects and for the full implementation of a 2016 peace plan that ended a half century of insurgency by the rebel Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC).

"We demand guarantees for life, the right to land and that they comply with the peace agreements with the FARC rebels," Hermes Pete, senior advisor to the Regional Indigenous Council of Cauca, told AFP.

Protests began on October 10 in southwestern Colombia and gradually advanced to the capital.

The approximately 7,500 who traveled to Bogota demanded a face-to-face meeting with the president to discuss the rise in violence from guerrillas and other groups financed by drug trafficking.

But presidential advisor Miguel Ceballos insisted that there was no possibility of meeting with Duque, instead offering a meeting with a federal delegation and the ombudsman -- an offer protestors rejected.

Ceballos also stressed his concerns about the risks of the pandemic, saying the government had distributed 1,000 Covid-19 tests among the demonstrators.

But protest spokesperson Noelia Campo insisted the minga, or indigenous meeting, "does not come sick, the minga comes healthy," and asked that the movement not be stigmatized.

Bogota mayor Claudia Lopez welcomed the protest movement and urged Duque to listen to its demands.

The group will march Monday to the Plaza de Bolivar, next to the presidential palace.

On Wednesday, they will join the "national strike," an anti-government movement that began in late 2019.

Duque, a conservative, has faced numerous protests during his two years in office, prompted by abuses by the armed forces, controversial economic and education policies, and a marked increase in violence against human rights activists.

"We have come to tell the country to respect our lives, to respect our territory... because today the pandemic is not killing us, we are being killed by the murderous bullets and the spread of the different armed groups," protest spokesperson Campo said.

Dozens of armed groups remain active in Colombia, fighting over the lucrative drug-trafficking trade in the world's largest producer of cocaine.

Representing 4.4 percent of Colombia's 50 million population, indigenous groups have for decades fought for their territorial rights, using methods such as roadblocks to gain attention.

© 2020 AFP

Bolivian election exit polls show socialist candidate ahead

Early exit polls suggest Luis Arce, an ally of former President Evo Morales, may have enough support to avoid a runoff vote. Sunday's poll was a repeat of the 2019 election, which led to Morales fleeing the country.


An exit poll in Bolivia's high stakes presidential election has given socialist candidate Luis Arce the lead he needs to avoid a runoff election. The quick-count Ciesmori polls were released late on Sunday by Bolivian media, and showed Arce with 52.4% of the votes and Carlos Mesa in second place with 31.5%. 

Arce, a former economy minister, is an ally of former President Evo Morales, while Mesa is a centrist who served as president in the early 2000s. To avoid a runoff, the winning candidate needed to secure more than 50% of the vote, or 40% with a lead of at least 10% over the second-place candidate.

Read more: Bolivia's presidential election could spark further instability

Without claiming victory, Arce thanked supporters and had a confident tone in a press conference shortly after midnight in the Bolivian capital, La Paz. 

"We are going to work, and we will resume the process of change without hate," Arce told reporters. "We will learn and we will overcome the mistakes we've made [before] as the Movement Toward Socialism party."
An election redo 

Bolivia erupted in violence in October 2019 as Morales was seeking a fourth term — despite the fact he was not technically eligible to do so.

The country's high court gave Morales the green light to run, even though he lost a referendum asking Bolivians if the constitution could be amended to add a fourth term. Early results announced on election night were reversed two days later, handing a narrow victory to Morales. The delay in results triggered violence nationwide that cost at least 30 lives, caused food shortages and led police and military leaders to force the former president into exile.

Prior to Sunday's vote, Bolivia's Supreme Electoral Court unanimously ruled against reporting preliminary vote totals as ballots are counted, advising that only the final tally should be reported. The counting process could take up to five days. 

Conservative Senator Jeanne Anez, the interim president who did not take part in the election, asked voters to stay calm until final results were announced.

"Patience, we must all be patient waiting for the results without generating any type of violence," she said. "I assure you we will have credible results."

Still cautioning that the results weren't yet official, Anez later congratulated Arce on his "apparent win" on Twitter. 

In Morales' shadow 

If Arce's victory is confirmed, it would be a triumph for the leftist movement Evo Morales built. But as his successor, Arce will likely have to govern under the long shadow of the man who was his former boss and the country's first Indigenous president. 

Despite overseeing a long period of stability in one of Latin America's most volatile countries and an export-led economic surge, Morales remains a polarizing figure in Bolivian politics. In particular, his quest for a fourth term upset large chunks of the population.

The staunch support he still holds, however, likely contributed to Arce's success. Arce will face the question of whether Morales can return from exile and how he should face a series of corruption scandals.

All of this is happening as the coronavirus pandemic has struck Bolivia harder than almost any other country on a per capita basis — nearly 8,400 of its 11.6 million people have died of COVID-19.

Landlocked Bolivia remains one of the poorest countries in the region, despite being rich in resources. The election also comes amid severe economic turmoil, with GDP expected to contract by 6.2% in 2020. 

jcg/msh (AFP, AP, dpa)

VIDEO
Indigenous Bolivians pray to Pachamama to end pandemic

https://www.dw.com/en/bolivian-election-exit-polls-show-socialist-candidate-ahead/a-55319676

Churches burnt as thousands mark Chile protest movement anniversary
BURNING IS NOT VIOLENT IT IS VANDALISM

Issued on: 19/10/2020
Santiago (AFP)

The spire of a church set on fire topples during a protest against Chile's government, on the one-year anniversary of the protests and riots that rocked the capital in 2019, in Santiago, Chile, October 18, 2020. © REUTERS - Ivan Alvarado

Two churches were torched as tens of thousands of demonstrators gathered Sunday in a central Santiago square to mark the anniversary of a protest movement that broke out last year demanding greater equality in Chile.

The demonstration comes just a week before Chileans vote in a referendum on whether to replace the dictatorship-era constitution -- one of the key demands when the protest movement began on October 18, 2019.

While the morning brought a largely festive atmosphere to the protests at Plaza Italia, there were several incidents of violence, looting and vandalism in the afternoon.

One church close to Plaza Italia was burnt to the ground as hooded protesters cheered, while a second place of worship was looted and also suffered fire damage.

Firefighters managed to get that blaze under control, though.

The small Church of the Assumption that was totally destroyed is known as the "artists' parish," according to local press.

There were clashes between groups of football hooligans in one Santiago neighborhood, while protesters in Plaza Italia doused a statue with red paint.

The communist mayor of a neighborhood near the central square, Daniel Jadue, was hounded out of Plaza Italia by protesters.

Yet it was a different feeling in the morning when demonstrators, many wearing masks to protect against the coronavirus pandemic, held up banners, sang and danced. Police even gradually pulled back from the Plaza Italia.

"It's great, very good and positive. They're pure good things for Chile in everything from here," demonstrator Viviana Donoso, 43, told AFP as she and a group of people danced to drums.

"The people of Chile need to unite, and we have to believe that we can do things."

Some even turned up to the demonstration in fancy dress.

- Hopes of a 'fairer Chile' -

For Victor Hugo de la Fuente, a journalist and manager at the Chilean edition of Le Monde Diplomatique, happiness reigned amongst protesters "due to the possibility of progressing and achieving a fairer and more democratic Chile."

Demonstrators also called for their countrymen to vote to "approve" the proposed constitutional change.

"This is the opportunity to say enough! We're here and we're going to vote for 'Approve,'" Paulina Villarroel, a 29-year-old psychologist, told AFP.

The government of President Sebastian Pinera -- one of the protesters' main targets -- called on demonstrators to be peaceful and to respect coronavirus restrictions.

The deadly outbreak has left 13,600 Chileans dead with more than 490,000 infected.

Protests broke out a year ago initially as a response to a hike in metro fares, before mushrooming into a general demonstration against inequality and the government.

On one night of unrest, a dozen metro stations were set ablaze, bus stops were smashed, supermarkets looted, buildings vandalized and protesters clashed with riot police who fired tear gas and used water cannons.

© 2020 AFP

Churches burnt as Chile anniversary rallies turn violent

Issued on: 19/10/2020 - 

Text by:NEWS WIRES

Demonstrators set a police vehicle on fire during clashes between security forces and protesters marking the first anniversary of Chile's social unrest over inequality 

Martin BERNETTI AFP

Tens of thousands of Chileans gathered in the central square of Santiago to mark the one-year anniversary of mass protests that left over 30 dead and thousands injured, with peaceful rallies on Sunday devolving by nightfall into riots and looting

People gathered early in the day in demonstrations downtown and in cities throughout Chile that gained size and fervor through the evening. Many touted signs and rainbow colored homemade banners calling for a "yes" vote next Sunday in a referendum over whether to scrap the country's dictatorship-era Constitution, a key demand of the 2019 protests.

The demonstrations, while largely peaceful early on, were marred by increasing incidents of violence, looting of supermarkets and clashes with police across the capital later in the day. Fire truck sirens, burning barricades on roadways and fireworks on downtown streets added to a sense of chaos in some neighborhoods.

Interior Minister Victor Perez spoke late in the evening, praising the early, peaceful rallies while blasting the late-night mayhem. He called on Chileans to settle their differences by voting in the upcoming Oct. 25 constitutional referendum.

"Those who carry out these acts of violence do not want Chileans to solve our problems through democratic means," Perez told reporters, vowing to punish those who crossed the line Sunday.

Early in the day, an angry mob jeered and threatened a Communist Party mayor. Later, masked individuals firebombed a police headquarters and church. Vandals attacked another Santiago church in the early evening, setting its spire aflame and choking side streets with smoke.

More than 15 metro stations were temporarily closed amid the unrest. Police fired tear gas and water cannons in skirmishes with sometimes violent, hooded and masked people.

Last year's protests, which began Oct. 18, raged until mid-December as Chileans gathered nationwide to call for reforms to the pension, healthcare and education systems.

Rioting and looting resulted in billions of dollars in damage and losses to the country's businesses and infrastructure. The unrest saw the military take to the streets for the first time since the rule of dictator Augusto Pinochet.

Police estimated that Sunday's rally in Santiago attracted around 25,000 people by 6 p.m., far smaller than the largest protests of 2019.

In the past few days, small-scale demonstrations and isolated incidents of violence have nonetheless resurfaced in Chile, as the capital's 6 million citizens emerge from months of confinement following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Most demonstrators on Sunday wore masks, but many could be seen in tight groups, raising concerns about a potential health risk.

(REUTERS)

Thousands take to Chile streets to mark protest movement anniversary

Issued on: 18/10/2020 - 

Santiago (AFP)

Thousands of demonstrators gathered Sunday in a central Santiago square to mark the anniversary of a protest movement that broke out last year demanding greater equality in Chile.

The demonstration comes just a week before Chileans vote in a referendum on whether to replace the dictatorship-era constitution -- one of the key demands when the protest movement began on October 18, 2019.

There was a festive atmosphere on the Plaza Italia as demonstrators, many wearing masks to protect against the coronavirus pandemic, held up banners, sang and danced.
There were isolated clashes with police, who gradually pulled back from the central square.

"It's great, very good and positive. They're pure good things for Chile in everything from here," demonstrator Viviana Donoso, 43, told AFP as she and a group of people danced to drums.

"The people of Chile need to unite, and we have to believe that we can do things."

For Victor Hugo de la Fuente, a journalist and manager at the Chilean edition of Le Monde Diplomatique, happiness reigned amongst protesters "due to the possibility of progressing and achieving a fairer and more democratic Chile."

Demonstrators also called for their countrymen to vote to "approve" the proposed constitutional change.

"This is the opportunity to say enough! We're here and we're going to vote for 'Approve,'" Paulina Villarroel, a 29-year-old psychologist, told AFP.

The government of President Sebastian Pinera -- one of the protesters' main targets -- called on demonstrators to be peaceful and to respect coronavirus restrictions.

The deadly outbreak has left 13,600 Chileans dead with more than 490,000 infected.

Policing without consent: Why French police are ill-equipped to ‘reconquer’ Paris suburbs

Issued on: 13/10/2020 -

French police hold paper shooting targets following an attack on the police station in Champigny-sur-Marne, east of Paris, on October 12, 2020. 

© Lucien Libert, REUTERS

Text by:Sarah LEDUC|Benjamin DODMANFollow

Brazen attacks on French police have highlighted the divide between law enforcement and youths in France’s most deprived suburbs. Analysts say bridging the chasm requires changing the entrenched culture of a police force that is answerable to the state, not the people.

With its fresh coat of paint, refurbished offices and supplementary cells, the revamped police station in Champigny-sur-Marne, east of Paris, was hailed as a “showcase” of the government’s suburban policing strategy when it reopened earlier this year following a €4.4 million facelift.

Surrounded by the shabby concrete blocks typical of the French capital’s poorer suburbs, Champigny’s commissariat de police lay at the heart of a newly designated “territory of Republican reconquest”, one of 30 run-down districts across the nation to receive extra police and investment in a highly publicised campaign to drive out street gangs and drug dealers.

The extensive renovation included the construction of a bullet-proof sally port at the front of the building – a crucial addition that may have saved two officers from being lynched in the early hours of Sunday when several dozen youths suddenly attacked the precinct with fireworks and metal bars, smashing windows and damaging police cars parked outside.

Hours after the audacious assault, senior officials were on the spot voicing outrage and vowing to crack down harder on the perpetrators, who were yet to be identified. Valérie Pécresse, the right-wing head of the Île-de-France region, which encompasses Paris, spoke of “scenes of war” at the police station in Champigny, urging the government to deploy more reinforcements in “neighbourhoods hit hardest by organised crime”.

“The little bosses impress no one and won’t discourage us in our fight against drugs,” added Gérald Darmanin, France’s new get-tough interior minister, linking the attack, without evidence, to his crackdown on drug trafficking. “The police are the Republic and the Republic is the police,” the minister sentenced – a choice of words that says a lot about France’s intractable policing problem.

‘Great savageness’

The spectacular assault in Champigny, which rattled officers but caused no injuries, was the latest in a string of attacks against police, and sometimes firefighters, that Darmanin says are a sign of the “great savageness” undermining French values. It came just days after two police officers in civilian clothes were pulled from their vehicle in another Paris suburb and shot multiple times with their own guns. One officer remains in serious condition.

On Monday, scores of police officers staged protests outside the station in Champigny, calling for respect, reinforcements and exemplary punishments. Police are the “last bulwark of the Republic” in France’s roughest suburbs, said one union representative; the Champigny attack proves that officers “are at risk of attack even on their doorstep”, raged another. Darmanin, who met with union leaders in Paris on Tuesday, promised new measures to protect officers in talks with President Emmanuel Macron later this week.
'Savage' attack on police station near Paris sparks calls for government action

French statistics on crime and delinquency are notoriously a subject of dispute, with talk of “rampant insecurity” often overshadowing the hard numbers. This leaves ample scope for tough-talking politicians and union representatives to shape the narrative.

According to the most recent study by the National Observatory of Delinquency (ONDRP), the number of police officers killed or injured in action rose sharply in 2018 after ebbing in previous years – an upsurge analysts attribute in large part to the fierce clashes with Yellow Vest protesters that peaked late that year. Judging by the number of complaints filed by police, assaults on officers continued to rise throughout 2019, a year also marked by civil unrest.

In another indicator of the strain on France’s police force, deaths by suicide among officers have risen steadily in recent years, to the point they now outnumber deaths in the line of duty. A parliamentary inquiry, made public last year, has listed a multitude of reasons, including overwork since a series of terrorist attacks that started in January 2015. Other sources have pointed at the entrenched hostility that has driven a wedge between police and segments of the public, and the government’s inability – or unwillingness – to address a negative spiral of hatred and violence that hurts the police as much as the public.

Warring mentality

Touching on the subject on the eve of his election to the French presidency, back in May 2017, Macron promised to “change the culture, the management and the recruitment of French police” once in office. “When there is manifestly a problem, the police hierarchy must be challenged,” the future president told news website Mediapart. But three years on, the only tangible change is the widened gulf between French police and swathes of the public.

While surveys suggest a broad majority of the French have confidence in the police, months of fierce clashes between riot police and Yellow Vest protesters shed light on the fearsome weaponry and tactics used by law enforcement in France, alienating segments of the public that previously bore no grudge against the police. More recently, the focus has shifted back to the festering issue of police racism and brutality in the immigrant-rich suburbs of France’s largest cities, on the heels of the global protest movement triggered by the George Floyd killing in the US.

>> Racism, sex abuse and impunity: French police’s toxic legacy in the suburbs

At the height of those protests, Jacques Toubon, France's human rights ombudsman, raised the alarm over a "crisis of public confidence in the security forces" in a wide-ranging report that made for grim reading. He urged a reversal of what he described as a "warring mentality" in law enforcement.

That warring mentality is reflected in the language used by both government and police officials when referring to Champigny and other “territories of reconquest”, says Mathieu Zagrodzki, a researcher at the Centre for Sociological Studies on Penal Institutions (CESDIP). Violent incidents like the one in Champigny are “a consequence of decades of hostility and negative stereotyping on both sides”, Zagrodzki told FRANCE 24. “The police see youths in the rougher suburbs as uniformly hostile, while on the other side officers are seen as the enemy. In both cases, the enmity is nurtured early on.”

‘As a kid, I dreamt of being a cop. Who would play the cop now?’

Zouhair Ech-Chetouani, a social worker and spokesperson for the Collectif Banlieues Respect, based in the northern Paris suburb of Asnières, says police have every right to be angry and feel abandoned by a state that “asks them to make up for its own failings”. He argues that both officers and the public are victims of politicians’ misguided view of policing and their preference for repression over crime prevention.

“We must stop considering poor districts as enemies of the Republic, as territories that need to be reconquered,” he said. “The police should serve the public, not political interests. How can they work against the population when they are supposed to protect the population?”

Analysts say the antagonism between French police and youths in deprived areas reflects a structural reluctance to engage with local communities. The establishment of community policing, at the turn of the century, marked a short-lived attempt to bridge the gulf with residents of the banlieues. But the so-called police de proximité (proximity police) jarred with the tough “law and order” rhetoric of conservative firebrand Nicolas Sarkozy, who disbanded the unit after becoming France’s interior minister in 2002.

“You’re not a social worker,” Sarkozy famously told an officer who had helped organise a football tournament for youths in a poor suburb of Toulouse.

Ever since, left-wing politicians have regularly floated the idea of reintroducing some form of police de proximité. But former President François Hollande’s Socialist government made no such attempt. Instead, to the dismay of minority youths singled out by police, Hollande’s administration reneged on a campaign promise to introduce a form of written receipt for all identity checks carried out by officers – a measure long advocated by campaigners against racial profiling.

“When I was younger, the cops and I knew each other, there was a measure of respect,” said Ech-Chetouani. “As a kid, I dreamt of becoming a policeman. That’s unthinkable now. Who would dream of playing the cop here?”

The community worker says the heart of the problem is a lack of police training and the practice of deploying rookie officers from faraway regions in some of the toughest neighbourhoods. “The young officers who get sent here have no knowledge of the banlieues, they often don’t know people from [racial] minorities,” he explained. “They’re sent here like it’s some kind of war zone, with 40 kilos of military hardware. But they simply don’t have the skillset to deal with situations they cannot understand.”

Beholden to the state, not the people

Though police unions generally plead for more hardware, some also point the finger at misguided recruitment policies and a lack of training.

Flavien Bénazet, of the SNUITAM-FSU union, called for “more comprehensive training, which brings in relational skills, psychology and sociology”. He added: “We need more officers, because at present we simply don’t have the time and manpower to build relationships with communities.”

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin meets police officers outside the police station in Champigny-sur-Marne on Sunday, hours after they they were attacked with fireworks and metal bars. © Thomas Samson, AFP

Like many analysts and community workers, Bénazet also called for the reinstatement of the police de proximité, arguing that Sarkozy’s decision to scrap community policing did great damage to relations between the force and the public. “We need officers out on the street, not in their cars. And we need a permanent contact and presence,” he added. “People say this costs a lot of money, but so do other public services that are useful to society.”

While referring to police as a public service is a no-brainer in much of the West, some analysts say the notion is debatable in France, where there is no equivalent of the Anglo-Saxon principle of “policing by consent”.

In France, “the state designed the police force to surveil and control its citizens. It’s a different concept from the Anglo-Saxon idea of a police that is drawn from civil society,” said Zagrodzki. “This is still reflected in different policing cultures today. In France, we have a focus on repression, whereas in Germany and Britain the police forces are designed to solve conflicts.”

Solving conflicts requires specific skills and training, says Sébastian Roché, a research director at the National Center for Scientific Research who specialises in police systems. In the French case, it would also require a radical change of thinking, he adds, noting that French recruits undergo an eight-month training – enough to practise chokeholds but not to learn mediation – against two to three years of instruction in northern European countries.

“French police are beholden to the state, not the people. They need the trust of the government, not the public,” he said, describing this as the “fundamental flaw” that poisons relations between law enforcement and segments of the public, and impedes meaningful reform. “Over the past four decades we’ve seen many reports identifying the structural problems with French policing,” Roché added. “But finding solutions is necessarily a long and complex process – and politicians have no time for this.”

Lebanon marks first year of uprising, sees long road to change

Protesters throw stones at riot police during clashes in central Beirut, Lebanon, on December 15. The uprising has been going on for a year, with no government reform in sight. File Photo by Nabil Mounzer/EPA-EFE

BEIRUT, Lebanon, Oct. 16 (UPI) -- A year after protests broke out against the government in Lebanon, activists have raised hope for change and shaken the political leadership -- but not enough to bring down the ruling elite.

"This is a long road, which will not succeed only by going to the streets once or twice or even for a year," Makram Rabah, an activist and lecturer of history at the American University of Beirut, told UPI.

The demonstrations were triggered by a government decision to impose a new tax on WhatsApp calls and soon turned into an unprecedented popular uprising before being slowed by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Anger, frustration and despair over the country's deterioration and the leaders' failure to address the acute economic crisis and financial collapse deepened after the Aug. 4 blast at the Beirut port, which killed nearly 200 people and left 300,000 homeless.

"After everything we have seen, including the port explosion massacre, it is a matter of life and death for us. Throwing rocks and wishing the politicians sickness or death... this is a simple act of resistance," Nizar Hassan, a political activist, told UPI. "When all channels of change are blocked, you just wish your oppressor would vanish from existence."

Although the uprising attracted people from all sectarian backgrounds, breaking the confessional system in place and foiling the leaders' counterrevolution attempts to revive sectarianism will take more.

Hassan noted that the pressures exerted by the protesters in the streets, including the disruption of institutions and economic activity, were temporary.

"We are dealing with an extremely stubborn ruling class who prioritizes its continuity over the survival of Lebanon and its people," Hassan said. "It is clear that the political leaders have no problem in accelerating the country's crises and financial meltdown by hanging to the status quo and refusing to pass the urgently needed laws and reforms."

Adopting reforms is the only way out for the bankrupt country. Without them, donor countries and the International Monetary Fund will not provide financial aid.

"It is true that the ruling establishment still holds all links to power. However, something really important has been achieved, which is basically destroying the idea that the system is too big to fail or that there is an invisible safety net that can always catch the economy of this country," Rabah said.
RELATED Lebanon's acting prime minister resigns, endangering reform



The uprising, which some still prefer to call a revolution, has created a strong desire for change, according to many activists.

Pierre Issa, Secretary-General of the National Bloc Party, referred to a recent study, which revealed that 74% of the Lebanese population oppose the ruling elite and support change; a percentage that has increased after the Beirut explosion.

However, creating an organized political opposition front that would challenge the well-established traditional ruling parties, headed by former warlords of the 1975-90 civil war, is no easy task.

"They have been in power for 45 years, abused everything and prevented any opposition," Issa told UPI. "Would it be possible to have an opposition and create a credible and trustworthy alternative [to the ruling power] in just one year?"
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Some groups within the uprising have been active and organizing their ranks; others need more time, he said.

"We want an effective democracy, a new social-economic system that secures social justice and creates job opportunities, a fair distribution of wealth, a new foreign policy that guarantees sovereignty and stability as well as a supervised early parliamentary elections," Issa said.

To Hassan, the infrastructure of political opposition is still in its infancy, and a lot of groups remain informal or based around a few individuals. "With only a handful of serious political organizations, creating a clear political alternative is hard," he said.

But the country is running out of time to avoid total collapse and another cycle of violence that would push the people again to seek protection from their own sectarian leaders.

"We are not heading to a civil war because Lebanon is no longer as important as it was in 1975," Rabah said. "Certainly, there is always such a risk because simply the political parties will get a kind of a bailout if a civil war breaks out. They are very much versed in using sectarian identities and collective memories to mobilize their own community. At the moment, the only people who can actually benefit from a civil war is Iran and Hezbollah."

Feeding a population of 2.7 million poor Lebanese and more than 1.7 million Syrian and Palestinian refugees will be a challenge to those who are still in power.

"They don't have the luxury of time. Wait and see how they will provide food for all those people," Issa said.

Amy Coney Barrett And The Cult Of Conservative White Womanhood

White Christian mothers have historically succeeded in carrying out the work of white supremacist patriarchy by dressing it in a prettier, more feminine package.

Shannon Keating Senior Culture Writer & Editor
Posted on October 16, 2020

Pool / Getty Images
Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett

This week’s Senate confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett, Donald Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, feel very different from the Kavanaugh spectacle of 2018.

The biggest distinction, of course, is that Brett Kavanaugh, the first of Trump’s nominees to make his senatorial case for a seat on the bench, was credibly accused of sexual assault. Those hearings were extraordinary. Raw. Kavanaugh, red-faced and raging, remains “indelible in the hippocampus” to so many assault survivors who watched the vile pageantry unfold before us those few days, we who have grown up in a society in which boys’ feelings and ambitions are so often prioritized at girls’ expense.

Judiciary Committee Republicans were eager for a more “civil” process this time around. In his opening statement earlier this week, Sen. John Kennedy described 2018 as a “freak show,” choosing a head-scratching metaphor: “It looked like the cantina bar scene out of Star Wars.” Not only were emotions then running sky-high on both sides of the aisle, but protesters had flooded the hallways surrounding the hearing room, some of them wearing the red robes of handmaidens; others sought out senators in other halls of government and pleaded with them to consider their experiences, going viral as a result.

This year, the coronavirus pandemic has left those halls silent. What’s more, as Intelligencer’s Ed Kilgore points out, “this time the nominee’s character and personal background are assets, not handicaps.” While both nominees were Roman Catholics and Federalist Society members, Kilgore writes, “Barrett’s background has served as both shield and sword for her proponents in a way that Kavanaugh’s did not.” Though Republicans tried defending Kavanaugh as a family man, a “father of daughters” — referencing his time as a girls basketball coach — it wasn’t to nearly the same effect.

Conservatives have long accused Democrats of harboring anti-Catholic bias against Barrett, as they claimed was the case during her 2017 hearings for a spot on the 7th Circuit. It’s a clever move for Republicans, who can cry religious bias should any Democratic senators try to investigate any possible connections between Barrett’s ardent faith and her views on, say, abortion and marriage equality. (The faith group with which she’s associated, People of Praise, opposes abortion and expels members for gay sex; Barrett also gave talks to anti-abortion groups in 2013, which she initially failed to disclose to the Senate ahead of her hearing.) The other, perhaps more significant part of her personal background that works quite nicely as both sword and shield: Barrett is a mother. And not just any mother, but a mother who works, returning at the end of the day to a house of seven children, two of whom were adopted from Haiti.

Nearly every Republican senator during the hearings mentioned Barrett’s large brood in an awe-inspired way. She is “remarkable,” the senators told her — a “superstar.” Barrett, for her part, has embraced the supermom narrative. She brought most of her large family to watch the hearings and made clear on the day of her nomination that while she’s a judge at work, she’s “better known back home as a room parent, carpool driver, and birthday party planner.”


Conservative pundits and columnists have crowed that the hysterical, naggy Democrats weren’t able to "Kavanaugh" a superwoman. The glorified, even fetishized ideal of conservative, religious white womanhood made Barrett an ideal candidate, even before she was memed for not taking any hearing notes, supposedly evidence of her brilliance.

The two Republican women on the committee went so far as to insinuate that Barrett’s Democratic critics were, in fact, being anti-feminist in daring to oppose her nomination. Sen. Joni Ernst of Iowa told Barrett that the Dems were “attacking you as a mom and a woman of faith” with accusations that are “demeaning to women … that you, a working mother of seven with a strong record of professional and academic accomplishment, couldn’t possibly respect the goals and desires of today’s women.”

Slate’s Christina Cauterucci captures the narrative’s “insidious sexism”:


Ernst’s implication, that being a mom with a job makes Barrett a friend to women, regardless of how her jurisprudence affects their lives, is exactly the kind of narrow reading of feminism anti-feminists would like to promote: one that encourages prolific motherhood for some while stigmatizing it for others; one that would force women into unwanted childbirth, then abandon them and their children once they’ve left the womb; one that disregards the unearned privileges and social forces that allow some women to thrive while keeping others in a state of precarious struggle; and one that points to the advancement of certain individual women as evidence that gender discrimination does not exist.

This is the conservative savvy of a pick like Barrett: “She is the perfect combination of brilliant jurist and a woman who brings the argument to the court that is potentially the contrary to the views of the sitting women justices,” Marjorie Dannenfelser, the president of the Susan B. Anthony List, an anti-abortion political group, told the New York Times last month. Even though, by 2020, we should know better than to assume that a single representative of a demographic will always best represent that demographic, Democrats would have to tread carefully were they to so much as insinuate that Barrett, a woman, might not ensure the best futures for most (nonwhite, non-Christian, not straight or cis, not financially comfortable) women, a majority of whom want to keep abortion legal.

So too were Barrett defenders able to wield her motherhood status when it came to where she stands on racial justice. Earlier this week, when Sen. Cory Booker asked her if she condemns white supremacy — noting that the president who appointed her has failed to do so in a straightforward way — he was slammed on the conservative internet for what was apparently a deeply offensive question, given that, as the Blaze and many other conservative outlets pointed out, Barrett is the mother of two Black children. (She answered Booker in the affirmative.)

Though the grown children of transracial adoption will readily tell you that being the adoptive parents of kids of color doesn’t magically make white people not racist (and can even help mask their racism), it’s automatically assumed of white, partnered, religious mothers — in the way it isn’t for Black mothers, or single mothers, or poor mothers, many of whom tend to be vilified rather than lionized — that they can do little wrong.


Samuel Corum / Getty Images
The daughters of Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett look on as she testifies during her confirmation hearing before the Senate Judiciary Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on October 13, 2020.

To be clear, I don’t know anything about what kind of mother Barrett is, and in all likelihood she’s a good and loving parent. But she’s given the benefit of the doubt in the way that I can’t at all imagine a single Black mother of seven children would have. What’s more: It’s assumed that her particular brand of motherhood would actually make her a better justice. To deflect Democratic worries that Barrett’s confirmation could threaten the status of the Affordable Care Act, which has occupied a large chunk of the hearings, Sen. Charles Grassley suggested that “as a mother of a seven, Judge Barrett clearly understands the importance of healthcare.”

Meghan Daum, who’s written extensively about the stereotypes leveled against childless women, wrote in her column for GEN this week that both Barrett and vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris, who’s frequently emphasized her role as a stepmother and aunt, or “Momala,” on the campaign trail, are evidence of an “assumption ... that female leaders can’t really be trusted unless they’re mothers. Or, at the very least, they can’t be trusted by campaign strategists to be relatable to the public at large.”

“It’s that tightrope that women have to walk that men don’t,” Christine Matthews, a Republican pollster who focuses on female voters, told the New York Times in a story this week about the “freighted expectations for women” holding public office. Men typically aren’t subjected, as Barrett and so many other working mothers have been, to questions about how they can possibly do it all. (Barrett has mentioned that her husband does “more than” his fair share of work at home, and that they have “friends and fearless babysitters” helping out. While we don’t know her specific arrangements, other families of means tend to employ other women, often women of color, to do a lot of the gruntwork of childrearing behind the scenes, and they’re typically overworked, underpaid, and subjected to a constant state of precarity.) Still, Matthews noted, Barrett seems well primed to walk that rope. “The Republican members of the judiciary are introducing her as a legal titan who drives a minivan. They are in some ways daring Democrats to step all over a minivan mom.”

Now that the hearings have ended, all signs point to the minivan mom emerging triumphant. The national outrage that swelled during the 2018 hearings is more or less absent now. To be fair, it’s 2020; everybody’s exhausted and pretty much confined to their homes. And we don’t have a figure like Christine Blasey Ford, whose testimony about the sexual assault she experienced as a teenager gave a sense of real, human gravity to Kavanaugh’s confirmation.


During the Barrett hearings, Democrats have trotted out anecdotes and photos of constituents who are terrified that they’ll lose their healthcare — the Supreme Court will be hearing a case about the Affordable Care Act a week after Election Day — but the most powerful image to have emerged from this week has been that of Barrett herself, brandishing her empty notepad or else simply sitting there, withstanding hours of questioning, so very close to becoming the youngest justice on the bench. At 48, she has the power to shape American law for decades.

While the mood of these hearings might be a lot more “civil” than 2018’s, the stakes couldn’t possibly be higher. If confirmed, Barrett will cement a 6–3 conservative majority on the court, making it, according to one Washington Post analysis, the most conservative SCOTUS since 1950. Not to mention that Republicans have, in classic fashion, violated their own precedent against ramming an appointment through during an election year; meanwhile, millions of Americans are desperate for immediate relief during a catastrophic period in American history, and unlike Amy Coney Barrett, they’re just going to have to wait for whatever cruelly underbaked stimulus package manages to eke by in the Senate.

Booker was among the more passionate Democratic members of the Judiciary Committee, making clear that he didn’t see all this as another business-as-usual hearing in which the Dems play by the rules that Republicans set and, when it suits them, are all too happy to break. During his opening statement, Booker condemned the “charade,” repeating that “none of this is normal and we cannot normalize it.”

But sounding the alarms over what a great existential threat Amy Coney Barrett’s confirmation would be to healthcare, abortion rights, and LGBTQ rights (to name a few) isn’t easy when besmirching the purity and goodness of Christian white womanhood is treated as a grievous sin in this country — far greater a sin, according to conservatives, at least, than leaving millions uninsured, or condemning pregnant people to illness or deepening poverty if they’re forced to give birth against their will, or denying trans children the right to lives free of harassment and violence.


The supposed moral purity and goodness of white motherhood has consistently enabled conservatives who’ve combined large families with high-profile careers, like Sarah Palin and anti-ERA activist Phyllis Schlafly, to carry out the extraordinarily damaging work of white supremacist patriarchy in a prettier, more feminine package. Barrett, with her “near-perfect performance” at this week’s hearings, is only the latest in a long, long line of white women whose pleasant, down-home family values have successfully masked her ability — and her will — to do extraordinary damage to families that don’t look like hers.

And it’s terrifying. ●

Shannon Keating is a senior culture writer and editor for BuzzFeed News and is based in New York.

USA

Why Does The Electoral College Still Exist?

The founders laid out a system for electing the president in the Constitution. But today, it means some voters are much more powerful than others.

Addy Baird BuzzFeed News Reporter
Reporting From Washington, DC
Posted on October 16, 2020

Jonathan Drake / Reuters
North Carolina's Electoral College representatives give a thumbs-up after they all affirmed their votes for Donald Trump, Dec. 19, 2016.

WASHINGTON — More than 14 million Americans have already voted in the presidential election — but none of them actually voted directly for the president.

Because of the Electoral College system in the United States, you’re not actually voting for former vice president Joe Biden or President Donald Trump; voters cast their votes for electors, who in turn cast their votes for president.

The Electoral College system is laid out in the Constitution and was envisioned by the founders as a system of voting in a time when there was little mass media, when many Americans would not have access to much information about the candidates. But on five occasions, the winner of the popular vote and the winner of the Electoral College have not been the same: It happened in 2000, it happened in 2016, and it could easily happen again in 2020.

Polls have consistently found that a majority of Americans dislike the Electoral College and would prefer to elect the president by popular vote.

But because the system is laid out in the Constitution, it’s pretty difficult to change. Doing so would require a constitutional amendment, approved by two-thirds of both the House and the Senate as well as three-quarters of the states. (Another option for amending the Constitution is having two-thirds of state legislatures call for a constitutional convention and then get three-quarters of the states to sign off on the amendment, but that’s never happened in US history.)

Since the Bill of Rights was ratified in 1791, there have been 17 amendments added to the Constitution. The most recent addition was the 27th Amendment, passed in 1992. Because of the extremely high threshold for passing an amendment, it’s unlikely that abolishing the Electoral College would be successful in Congress at all, especially given that the system has tended to benefit Republicans in recent decades.

The Electoral College has meant that voters in rural areas — usually white people — and smaller states have significantly more influence at the ballot box than voters in big cities, where more people of color live and vote. For example, as the Washington Post has reported, about 586,000 people live in Wyoming, and the state has three electoral votes. More than 39 million people live in California, but the state has just 55 electoral votes, meaning that one voter in Wyoming has about 3.6 times more power than one voter in California.

The issue became a hot topic during the Democratic primary — though Biden broke from many of his fellow Democrats and said he did not support abolishing the Electoral College.

Some states are trying a new tactic to end its use: So far, 15 states and the District of Columbia have entered into an agreement called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC).

The idea is that, rather than awarding their electoral votes to the winner of the state’s popular vote, the group of states will give them to the winner of the national popular vote. (The agreement is currently suspended in Colorado, however, and there’s an initiative on the ballot in the state to decide whether it will stay in the coalition.)

According to the NPVIC, including Colorado’s Electoral College votes, the coalition currently represents 196 electoral votes. If enough states joined — representing more than 270 votes, the number needed to win the Electoral College — the group could essentially guarantee the winner of the presidency is the winner of the popular vote.

How The Electoral College Favors White Voters

Non-white voters are more likely to live in "safe" states, sapping their electoral power.

John Templon  BuzzFeed News Reporter

Posted on November 7, 2016

The Electoral College system gives more voting power to some races over others.

The average white non-Hispanic voter could have nearly two times the influence on this election than the average Asian voter, according to a BuzzFeed News analysis. Why? Geography. The high concentration of Asian voters in certain “safe” states, ones that are almost certain to break for one party or another, means that they have less influence on the ultimate outcome of the election.


John Templon/BuzzFeed News

Note: Some demographic groups in this analysis overlap.

We conducted an analysis of the relative strength of each registered voter by race by combining data from the U.S. Census’s Voting and Registration data by state and race with FiveThirtyEight’s “Voter Power Index.”

It’s important to note that this analysis does not account for who actually voted, only who was registered in 2012. Also, the demographics of each state have likely shifted in the four years since. Still, this analysis shows the outsized influence that certain demographics have on the electoral process.

BuzzFeed News also analyzed other dimensions, such as gender, education, and income, but the differences were not as significant as just looking at race alone. Even though much has been made about Donald Trump’s white, non–college educated base, this analysis suggests that those voters will not have any more of an impact on the election than the typical white voter.

According to FiveThirtyEight, “The ‘Voter Power Index’ is the relative likelihood that an individual voter in a state will determine the Electoral College winner.” Swing states that could potentially tip the election (such as New Hampshire, Nevada, Colorado, North Carolina, and Michigan) have high “Voter Power Index” scores, whereas states with large Democratic or Republican majorities (such as Wyoming, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Maryland and Massachusetts), are at the other end of the scale.

Our analysis found that every registered white non-Hispanic voter in 2012 has the influence of about 1.05 registered voters. For registered Asian voters it was just 0.58, and for Hispanics it was 0.87.

In 2012 registered Asian voters were concentrated in “safe” states such as New York, California, Texas, New Jersey, and Illinois, all of which are not projected to have a big influence on the 2016 election.

But the system does present problems: If, for example, a Republican wins the popular vote, Democratic strongholds like California and New York (both of which have entered into the coalition) would have to award their votes to someone whom the majority of the state voted against.

Carter Center details its first-ever monitoring of an American election
By
David Hawkings, The Fulcrum

Former President Jimmy Carter's Carter Center has monitored 111 elections in 39 countries since the 1980s and decided after the party conventions in August that the presidential contest merited similar treatment, citing a "backsliding" of American democracy. File Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

Oct. 16 (UPI) -- The Carter Center, which Jimmy Carter started after his presidency in part to assure fair elections in the developing world, is making explicit its plan for watchdogging an American contest for the first time.

The organization has unveiled one video explaining the basics of voting rights and balloting logistics, and another video encouraging patience if the presidential result is not known soon after the voting stops Nov. 3 because millions of mailed ballots will still need to be counted. It's also finalizing arrangements for unprecedented on-the-ground observation by volunteers in places with histories of voter suppression, in neighborhoods surrounding the center's Atlanta headquarters and in other mostly Southern states.

The details underscore the degree of concern by human rights organizations about the adequacy of months of preparation for a safe and comprehensive Election Day that yields trustworthy results.

The Carter Center has monitored 111 elections in 39 countries since the 1980s and decided after the party conventions in August that the presidential contest merited similar treatment, citing a "backsliding" of American democracy that started a decade ago and has accelerated during the Trump administration.

"We've focused on places where democracy is either poised to take a step forward or in danger of taking a step backward," the head of the nonprofit's democracy program, David Carroll, wrote last week in sketching some of the coming efforts on the center's website. He said the nations where election observers have gone before almost all have domestic stresses similar to those in the United States now: "Countries characterized by political polarization, ethnic or racial divisions and fears that election results won't be accepted or seen as credible."

Since the center made the decision only six weeks ago, it decided it would be too ambitious to deploy volunteer observers nationwide -- in part because that would require getting permission from as many as 10,000 election administering jurisdictions, many of which would likely resist on the grounds that the monitors would have partisan bias because the former president is a Democrat.

President Donald Trump, who is trailing in the polls to former Vice President Joe Biden, has repeatedly questioned the integrity of the election and refused to commit to a peaceful transfer of power if he's defeated -- mainly by alleging, without evidence, that an unprecedented use of absentee ballots in response to the coronavirus pandemic will assure widespread fraud

Carter co-chaired a bipartisan commission that in 2005 described mail-in ballots as the easiest way to commit election fraud. But in May he announced he had changed his mind because the steady expansion in remote voting, and improved ballot security, had proved the process almost immune to cheating.

The former president reiterated that view last month after both Attorney General William Barr and the White House cited the 15-year-old report in efforts to discredit the practice. "I approve the use of absentee ballots and have been using them for more than five years," Carter said.

Part of the Carter Center's work this fall has been collaborating with the National Vote at Home Institute on a report on how local election officials can make the absentee ballot process more transparent -- and with the National Conference of State Legislatures on a report explaining election observer rules in all 50 states.

The other nations where Carter elections teams are working this fall are Côte d'Ivoire, Myanmar and Bolivia.

Carter turned 96 two weeks ago and is the oldest person ever to have been president. He was defeated by Ronald Reagan after a single term in 1980 and he and his wife, Rosalynn, started the humanitarian, peacekeeping and global democracy promotion organization two years later.

This article originally appeared at The Fulcrum.