It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Monday, September 20, 2021
'MAYBE' TECH
JAPAN
2 PM hopefuls favor nuclear fusion, small modular reactors
TOKYO
Two of the four contenders in the race to become Japan's next prime minister called Sunday for introducing small modular reactors and nuclear fusion reactors as part of efforts to achieve the goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050.
Former Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida and former communications minister Sanae Takaichi also said Japan should in the meantime restart its currently idled nuclear reactors in order to maintain a stable and feasible power supply source.
Small modular reactors are said to be cheaper to produce and safer to run than conventional reactors, while nuclear fusion reactors do not emit high-level radioactive waste.
"I will eventually seek technologies such as SMRs or nuclear fusion," Kishida said in an NHK program joined by the three other candidates in the Sept. 29 presidential election of the governing Liberal Democratic Party.
Takaichi said she would seek to introduce domestically built SMRs underground and nuclear fusion reactors as a safer and more efficient source of energy.
Most of Japan's nuclear reactors have been offline since the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster.
The LDP vote will effectively decide the successor of outgoing Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as the LDP currently controls the House of Representatives, the powerful lower chamber of parliament.
Vaccination minister Taro Kono pushed for a significant increase in the use of renewable energy, saying the government needs to invest in port building for offshore wind power generation and development of storage cells.
Seiko Noda, the party's executive acting secretary general, said the government needs to present its view on the best energy mix to the public and vowed to utilize geothermal power generation, which uses heat from deep within the earth to create steam and generate power.
Japan is set to revise its basic energy plan and increase the percentage of renewables in electricity generation to 36 to 38 percent in fiscal 2030, more than double the fiscal 2019 level, while retaining the current target for nuclear power at 20 to 22 percent.
The plan, however, could change depending on the new prime minister's energy policy.
In a separate TV program also involving the four candidates, Kono expressed a cautious stance about acquiring strike capabilities against foreign bases while Kishida and Takaichi expressed eagerness to do so.
Talking about deterrence against an increasingly assertive China, Kono told Fuji TV, "When we think about how we should convey the message of Japan's capability to China, we should not just cry out brave slogans."
He added that strike capabilities could be a destabilizing factor and suggested that deterrence could be achieved by making China and North Korea more aware of the strength of the Japan-U.S. alliance.
In contrast, Kishida said Japan should think about preparing such capabilities, while Takaichi called for introducing precision-guided missiles to "disable enemy bases as quickly as possible."
Noda said Japan must step up its information gathering capabilities in coordination with the United States, South Korea and other countries.
Hydrogen Demand: And Now The Contentious Disappointments
The global LNG is holding up for now, but Uniper's plans for a new green ammonia and green hydrogen hub in Germany could shake things up. Photo courtesy of Uniper.
In the first part of this series, I projected and explained the plummeting hydrogen demand from petroleum refining and fertilizer, the biggest sources of demand today, through 2100. In the second part, I explored the flat demand segments, and the single source of significant demand increase I see for hydrogen in the next 20 years. In this final assessment, I look at the great but false hopes for a hydrogen economy: transportation, long-term storage, and heat.
Hydrogen demand through 2100, by author.
Transportation — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons H2
This is one of the great hopes of the current fossil fuel industry, and a couple of car companies which have managed to capture their governments in Korea and Japan. However, there’s no significant place for hydrogen or synthetic fuels made from it in ground transportation. Electrification is simply too easy, prevalent, cheap, and effective. Hydrogen can’t compete outside of tiny niches like vintage vehicles. For short- and medium-haul aviation, and short- and medium-haul water freight shipping, the clear path is battery electric as well.
That only leaves long-haul shipping and long-haul aviation as areas where hydrogen might have a play. Mark Z. Jacobson and I discussed this on CleanTech Talk a year and a half ago. His perspective was that in order to get to a zero-carbon world, hydrogen would have to be used for long-haul shipping and aviation.
His perspective on shipping was that we needed to eliminate black carbon, with its 100-year global warming potential of 1,055–2,240. Subsequently, I spent a couple of hours talking with Hadi Akbari, a PhD of mechanical engineering who has spent the last several years of his fascinating career spanning two continents building scrubbers for heavy marine vessels. Just as particulates are scrubbed from coal plant emissions, they can be scrubbed from marine emissions, and so biofuels with their lower black carbon emissions will be fit for purpose in my opinion. (Note: this is my opinion after talking with Hadi and researching further, not Hadi’s expressed opinion.) Biofuels use nature to do most of the heavy lifting and have advanced substantially over the past decade. There is no value in using them in ground transportation, they no longer consume food sources and there is little real concern about them competing with agriculture, although there is a lot of expressed concern nonetheless.
On aviation, Jacobson rightly points out that we have to solve emissions, but it’s a hard problem, with CO2 emissions, nitrous oxide emissions (anything burned in our atmosphere combines the nitrogen and oxygen into nitrous oxides), and the water vapor which creates contrails. In discussion with Paul Martin, it’s clear that both hydrogen storage and fuel cells would have to be in the fuselage, leaving a lot less room for passengers and luggage or making the fuselage bigger with attendant efficiency losses, and creating a heavy burden of excess heat from the fuel cells that makes them deeply unlikely. In his perspective, hydrogen would be burned directly in jet engines in this model, and that wouldn’t eliminate nitrous oxides or water vapor hence contrails.
Once again, low-carbon biofuels are likely to be the solution here. Certified versions have existed since 2011, after all, while there are exactly zero certified hydrogen drive train planes in the world. And contrails require fairly minimal operational changes, as a regular CleanTechnica reader who holds my feet the fire pointed out (and thank you for doing so, Hazel). Those operational changes still have to be mandated for the airlines, but it’s not as significant a problem as I had originally assumed.
Biofuels are enhanced with some hydrogen in some cases, and there are always going to be edge cases where hydrogen persists, but my projection for all modes of transportation including biofuel use is still only an increase from effectively 0 tons today to a million tons a year by 2100. Long-term storage — 0 rising to 1 (one) million tons
Hydrogen is also projected as a solution for the dunkelflaute, long dreary periods when there is little wind or sunshine. However, it only makes into the also-ran categories of my projections for grid storage, not into the three major technologies.
Projection of grid storage capacity through 2060 by major categories by author
Even there, it’s not going to be a big player in the also ran category, fighting for scraps with all the other contenders a long way back in the pack. Some of the reasons are the same as always. It’s ineffective, it’s inefficient and it will be vastly more expensive. But more than that, the need just isn’t there unless you assume a whole bunch of other solutions aren’t already occurring.
High-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission has been around since the 1950s, but in 2012 they finally solved a major technical inhibitor to its wide scale use. Despite the presence of multiple grids on continents already sharing electricity with HVDC asynchronous connections between high-voltage alternative current (HVAC) synchronized grids, despite massive HVDC construction projects under way, planned and proposed, despite electricity already being transmitted long-distances today with much more lossy HVAC, many people seem to think that electricity won’t be transmitted from renewables between opposing ends of continents and even across continents.
Electricity already flows from Africa to Europe across the Bosphorus Strait. Expanding that with big HVDC pipes from solar installations and wind farms in northern Africa is trivial, just as getting more HVDC pipes to ease the logjam from North Sea offshore wind into the population centers of Europe is straightforward and being constructed.
Renewables are cheap to build, and just as with every other form of electrical generation except nuclear, will be overbuilt and run under capacity part of the year.
Demand management strategies vs V2g projection by author
The assumption of the need for long-term storage assumes narrow geographical boundaries, an archaic concept of energy independence in a world of global trade, and actively hostile neighbors. Liebreich and I have started this conversation online, with his opening salvo being a question of whether Japan would ever accept the proposed HVDC links with China, to which I respond now that China is already 20% of Japan’s annual trade, so why is electricity different?
Germany will likely be the one outlier in this space. They have underground salt deposits that they can turn into caverns, they have a weird love affair with hydrogen too, and dunkelflaute being a German word isn’t a coincidence. If anybody builds significant hydrogen storage, it will probably be them.
As a result, my projection for global demand for hydrogen for electricity storage rises from effectively zero tons today to a million tons in 2100. Someone will waste the money, but very few.
Heating — 0 tons rising to … 0 (zero) tons
And finally, heating, the beloved hope of natural gas utilities globally, all of whom are lobbying hard to convince governments to let them ship hydrogen into homes and buildings to replace natural gas, and to allow them to inject tiny amounts of hydrogen into existing natural gas lines to produce close to zero emissions reductions. There are no certified hydrogen home furnaces or stoves today. The existing natural gas distribution network would have to be completely replaced to handle hydrogen. Current challenges with leaking natural gas would be multiplied vastly by leaking hydrogen due to the tiny size of the molecule. SGN in Scotland is trying to retrofit 300 homes in Fife with hydrogen appliances for free, one of the many efforts going on around the world by utilities whose life is rapidly ending.
No, what will happen is that all of that natural gas distribution infrastructure will be shoved into electrical minimills to create steel for useful things, and the world will convert to heat pumps and induction stoves.
My projection for global demand for hydrogen for heating is effectively zero tons today, and remaining at so far under a million tons through 2100 that it rounds down to zero.
And so, that’s the projection. It’s flawed, of course, but not fatally in my opinion. It’s my first iteration of the projection, and it’s withstood me writing 4,000 words over three articles explaining it, so there’s that. But as with my projections on grid storage and vehicle-to-grid, I offer it to create a useful discussion about what the world will become, and welcome challenges to it.
Hydrogen demand today is two-thirds for petroleum refining and fertilizer manufacturing. Both of those uses are going to drop precipitously in the coming decades. The one growth area, steel, will not replace them, in my opinion. Green hydrogen only has to replace the useful two-thirds of hydrogen demand seen today, and grow to 75% of 2021 demand by 2100 to fulfill all needs.
INDIA
Planning to Study, Work in Canada? Here's Why Election Could Amend Immigration Rules
Canada's Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau speaks during an election campaign stop in Richmond Hill, Ontario Canada September 18, 2021.
REUTERS/Carlos Osorio Immigrants also accounted for more than 80 percent of Canada’s population growth in 2019 and it was the highest population growth among the G7 nations.
Canada will head to vote on September 20, according to a new poll on Saturday as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his Conservative rival will campaign to wrestle for power. According to latest Sondage Lager poll conducted for the Journal de Montreal and the National Post newspapers, the Conservatives led by Erin O’Toole have been given 33 percent vote, one percent ahead of 32 percent given to Trudeau’s Liberals.
In the 2019 elections, the Liberals did not performs well and their seat tally went down from the 170 mark, required to form a majority government, to reach 157 seats. It had got 184 seats in the last 2015 elections. The Liberals have governed largely with the support of the New Democratic Party (NDP), headed by Jagmeet Singh, a report in The Quint said.
Singh, a practicing Sikh, is the first visible minority leader to head a major federal political party in Canada. It is believed that in this election too, a minority government will come to power like the last four out of the six elections. In this case, smaller parties will determine who will be prime minister.
The Liberal party under Justin Trudeau has expanded immigration into Canada since 2015, primarily through its Express Entry program, the report said. Data showed that in 2019, Canada granted permanent residency status to 3.4 lakh people. India remained the largest source country for these immigrants accounting for 25 percent, followed by China (9 percent) and Philippines (8 percent).
Immigrants also accounted for more than 80 percent of Canada’s population growth in 2019 and it was the highest population growth among the G7 nations.
IMMIGRATION RISE AFTER PANDEMIC
In 2020, when Covid-19 pandemic hit the world, the immigration in Canada dipped 50 percent in comparison to 2019. 1.8 lakh people immigrated in 2020. During the Covid-19 pandemic, it prioritised in-Canada Express Entry candidates and also eased travel restrictions to allow approved permanent residents to enter the country.
However, in 2021, the immigration bounced back as 70,500 individuals granted permanent residency in the first quarter of 2021.
It added that with the widespread support for immigration in Canada, immigration isn’t a major political issue in this election. The top issues remain housing affordability, pandemic recovery, healthcare, and climate change.
SUPER VISA PROGRAMME
With the liberals already achieving immigration goals, the Conservative party manifesto does not include immigration targets. Instead, it has proposed to expand the ‘Super Visa’ programme, which allows family members of new Canadians to come to Canada. The move is seen to benefit international students and temporary foreign workers.
INDIA-CANADA TIES
India is currently the largest source country for migrants to Canada, and it is likely to remain so in the foreseeable future. India has around 2.5 million people migrating abroad every year, which is the highest in the world.
Migration from India is expected to increase likely due to ‘weak’ economy and climate change, the report adds.
Since Canada hasn’t proposed any country-based quota for migration, Indians are likely to continue to be welcomed to Canada in the coming years, regardless of whichever party comes to power.
ELECTION REMAINS TIGHT
When Trudeau pulled the plug on his government at the beginning of August in order to force snap elections, he was riding high in the polls. Canadians were strongly supportive of his pandemic response, which saw hundreds of billions of dollars doled out to support workers and businesses through the crisis.
And the nation’s Covid vaccine rollout was going well, despite initial missteps. It seemed a good time to try to regain a majority in a third term.
Trudeau remains Canadians’ top choice for prime minister, but scandals and ethics lapses have tarnished his golden boy image, while his administration is showing signs of wear after six years in office.
Election 2021: Alberta spends much of campaign on the sidelines
Author of the article: Jason Herring Publishing date:Sep 18, 2021 •
FILE - Storm clouds move in over walkers in Edworthy Park and the downtown Calgary skyline on Tuesday, May 4, 2021.
PHOTO BY GAVIN YOUNG/POSTMEDIA
Canada’s five-week federal election campaign is drawing to a close, with major parties declining to devote significant time to Alberta on the campaign trail.
Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau and Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole have each spent only a few hours in the province, during the first week of the campaign, with Trudeau stopping in Calgary and O’Toole making an Edmonton pit stop. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has visited Edmonton twice, including on Saturday.
The province barely came up when leaders shared the stage for the English-language debate, either. Alberta was mentioned only during the two-hour debate when Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said the Trans Mountain Pipeline project shouldn’t have been approved. Alberta votes fairly predictably in federal elections, with Conservative MPs winning 33 of the province’s 34 seats in 2019. The NDP won a lone seat in Edmonton.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was in town to rally with candidate George Chahal at the Whitehorn Community Centre in Calgary on Thursday, August 19, 2021.
Darren Makowichuk/Postmedia
Still, Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt said he was surprised to see Alberta passed over in this election because several seats are in play in the province, something that wasn’t the case in 2019.
He said though some election issues including child care and carbon pricing will have a differential impact on Alberta, parties aren’t offering anything to the province. “We know there are maybe six competitive ridings in Alberta: three in Calgary, three in Edmonton. You would think that would lead to a bit more contention, but it hasn’t,” Bratt said. He said leaders’ early-campaign visits to Alberta seemed to be them just ticking the province off their list. “Calgary is the fourth-largest city (in Canada). Edmonton is the fifth-largest city. Calgary has the second-most corporate head offices. Surely that’s worth more than a drop-in.”
Those six ridings are Calgary Centre, Calgary Confederation and Calgary Skyview, and Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Griesbach and Edmonton Mill Woods. A Conservative running for re-election is fending off a Liberal or NDP challenger in each of those ridings.
Leger polling released Saturday found 50 per cent of decided Alberta voters intend to cast their ballot for the Conservatives, which would be down from the 69 per cent of votes the party received in Alberta in 2019. The NDP and the Liberals are attracting 25 per cent and 17 per cent of voter intention in Alberta respectively, the poll indicates.
It’s usually considered a foregone conclusion Conservatives will win the vast majority of seats in Alberta, said Leger executive vice-president Andrew Enns. He suggested even if the Grits had initially hoped to turn some urban Alberta ridings red, poor polling numbers early in the campaign may have led them to direct their efforts towards some regions in which they hope to retain seats.
“It’s also the case that the national news that’s been emanating out of Alberta hasn’t been linked as much to the campaigns as to the other big issue, which is COVID-19,” Enns said.
Both the Liberals and the NDP seized on Alberta’s pandemic response earlier this week, drawing comparisons between O’Toole and Alberta Premier Jason Kenney. Trudeau criticized O’Toole for previously praising Alberta’s COVID-19 approach, while Singh slammed Kenney while also throwing barbs at Trudeau for calling an election in the midst of the pandemic’s fourth wave.
O’Toole sidestepped questions on Alberta’s COVID-19 situation this week, saying all provinces have tried to balance their public health restrictions with economic needs.
Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole speaks at an election campaign visit to Canada Place in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada September 5, 2021.
PHOTO BY REUTERS/JENNIFER GAUTHIER
Though Conservatives still hold a comfortable lead in Alberta, Enns said some previous Tories have likely jumped to the NDP, while others have thrown their support behind Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada and Jay Hill’s Maverick Party. The Leger poll found six per cent and two per cent of Albertans intend to cast their ballots for those parties, respectively.
It’s unlikely these two parties, which are each campaigning towards disaffected Conservative voters in Alberta, will have much of an impact on election results, Bratt said.
“Even if you were to combine the Maverick Party and the PPC, they’re still not a danger of winning a seat,” he said, adding the parties also aren’t likely to sap even support from the Conservatives to flip any of their seats.
Kenney’s unpopularity in Alberta is also not expected to have a significant impact on votes for his federal counterpart, Enns said, with most voters separating their views of the federal and provincial parties.
“I’m not going to say there’s no downside of Premier Kenney’s troubles for the federal Tories, but I don’t think it’s a situation where we’ll see a real upheaval of the political landscape in Alberta as a result.”
Canada's opposition Conservative Party leader Erin O'Toole speaks during his election campaign tour in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada, Sept. 18, 2021.
VANCOUVER, CANADA —
A leading party in Monday’s Canadian election has caught the attention of authorities in Beijing with pledges to take a much tougher line on China if elected.
The platform of the opposition Conservative Party, whose leader Erin O’Toole is contending to become prime minister in the Sept. 20 election, mentions the Chinese government 31 times -- none of them favorably.
That contrast with the platform of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s ruling Liberal Party, which mentions China only once in spite of simmering tensions over the detention of a high-profile Chinese executive in Vancouver and China’s arrests of two Canadians.
The Conservatives are promising to withdraw from the Beijing-led Asian Infrastructure Bank, reduce any of Canada’s dependence on China, and ban Chinese technology company Huawei from having anything to do with Canadian 5G networks.
Promising to stand up to the Communist government of China, the Conservative platform also levels criticism at Chinese policy on matters of trade, the environment, territorial Arctic claims and relations with Taiwan.
China’s ambassador to Canada has been quoted as saying Beijing is opposed to the “smearing” of China. Chinese state media have said if the Conservatives were to form a government, implementing the platform would “invite counterstrikes.”
Lynette Ong, a political scientist who specializes in China at the Munk School of Global Affairs at the University of Toronto, said the Conservatives – popularly known as Tories – are attempting to capitalize on the current hostile opinion toward China.
However, she said, the reaction from the Chinese government is miscalculated.
“I think the purpose is trying to appeal to a certain segment of Canadian voters trying to get them to not vote for the Tories,” she said. “But I'm not sure whether Canadian voters will actually buy into that sort of rhetoric.”
Stewart Prest of Simon Fraser University.
(Photo Courtesy Simon Fraser University)
Stewart Prest, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, said the Conservatives took the same approach years ago, but when they actually formed a government after a previous election, they watered down their criticisms of China.
He expects the Conservatives, if elected this time, to do the same thing.
“These kinds of messages are, are meant to project a kind of strength into to show that the perhaps they would be more principled in their approach to foreign policy than the Liberals that they're trying to draw contrast with,” he said.
Paul Evans, of the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs at the University of British Columbia, said this is a way for the Conservatives to put Canada’s relations with China into the election. He believes if elected, they would try to implement their platform.
“So this is not just wishful thinking out there,” he said. “There's a there's a lot of thought that has gone into it. And a lot of calculation about the right way to approach a more repressive and assertive China.”
Evans said the obvious preference for the Chinese government would be for the Liberals and Trudeau to be reelected. He echoed Ong’s thoughts that comments against the Conservatives may not work in their favor.
Supporters of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor take part in a 5km walk in Ottawa, Ontario on Sept. 5, 2021, as the walk marks 1,000 days for for the pair in Chinese prison after Spavor and Kovrig were charged with espionage.
Meng Wanzhou, Huawei’s chief financial officer, has been forced for almost two years to stay in Vancouver while Canadian courts consider a U.S. request for her extradition to the United States. Shortly after her arrest at Vancouver International Airport on Dec. 1, 2018, two Canadians were arrested in China on allegations of spying. Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, known as “the two Michaels,” are still in Chinese custody.
The Canadian election is Monday, although with many people casting votes in advance and by mail, the final result might not be immediately known.
Trudeau faces criticism from political rivals over Canada’s exclusion from the #Aukus pact
Moving forward on the campaign trail. Source - Justin Trudeau @JustinTrudeau Officiel du gouvernement - Canada.
Justin Trudeau is facing harsh criticism from political rivals after Canada was excluded from a new international defense pact – just days before Monday’s federal election. Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States on Wednesday announced an agreement called Aukus.
The Aukus pact will see Australia being given the technology to build nuclear-powered submarines in an effort to counter China’s influence in the contested South China Sea. According to The BBC, France was informed of the alliance just a few hours before the public announcement was made.
And while the pact was “not intended to be adversarial” to China, according to the UK’s Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, the public outcry in Britain and in particular, France, a NATO ally, was not lost on Trudeau’s political rivals.
While Canada already shares intelligence with Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States, and New Zealand – an agreement called the Five Eyes – leaders of both the Conservative and New Democratic parties quickly criticized Trudeau for Canada’s exclusion from the pact, reports The Guardian.
“This is another example that Mr. Trudeau is not taken seriously by our friends and allies around the world,” the Conservative leader, Erin O’Toole, told reporters Thursday. “Canada is becoming more irrelevant under Mr. Trudeau.”
O’Toole said he would seek to join the new Indo-Pacific security arrangement if the Conservatives are elected
Andrew Sheer talks with Erin O’Toole about the ongoing NAFTA negotiations and how Canada’s Conservatives will stand up for Canadian workers in 2017. Source – Andrew Scheer
The New Democratic leader, Jagmeet Singh, also criticized Canada’s absence from the pact, claiming Trudeau was too distracted by the upcoming election to engage with Canada’s allies. Singh said that if Canada had become a member of Aukus, it could have put pressure on China to free the two jailed Canadians, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig.
“The pact seems like a potential avenue to add more pressure [on China]. Canada was absent. Another reason why this election should not have been called,” said Singh.
During the English language debate on September 9, while debating the two Michaels, O’Toole said, “Canada’s voice has been absent Mr. Trudeau. We should be leaders for our values, sir. You’ve let the Michaels down and we have to get serious with China.”
Trudeau fired back: “If you want to get the Michaels home, you do not simply lob tomatoes across the Pacific.”
Trudeau has downplayed the significance of Canada being left out of the pact, saying, “This is a deal for nuclear submarines, which Canada is not currently or any time soon in the market for. Australia is.”
The nuclear-powered attack submarine, USS Albany (SSN 753) transits the Chesapeake Bay as it returns from a scheduled six-month deployment in 2004. Source – U.S. Navy photo by Photographer’s Mate 2nd Class Steven J. Weber, Public Domain The Aukus agreement disagreement
France was left out of the agreement and ended up losing out on a deal worth $37 billion (£27bn) that France had signed with Australia in 2016 to build 12 conventional diesel-powered submarines. And for France – this alleged snub is a very big deal.
This is why President Emmanuel Macron ordered the recall of the country’s ambassadors from the U.S. and Australia. Interestingly, Macron did not recall the ambassador from London.
As for Canada, it appears the country has been dragged into a disagreement it really has no interest in being involved in, especially when it comes to its allies.
Don't split the vote by voting PPC,' O'Toole tells supporters on final campaign day
The Canadian Press - Sep 19, 2021 / 6:14 pm | Story: 346230
Photo: The Canadian Press
Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole, centre, and his family wave from a staircase during a Party campaign rally in Toronto, Sunday, Sept. 19, 2021. Canadians go to the polls on Monday in a federal election. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
TORONTO - Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole delivered his starkest plea yet for people not to split the vote on the right by picking the People's Party of Canada Sunday, on what was his last day before polls open.
Conservatives have been ramping up their warnings in recent days against voters going over to Maxime Bernier's more populist party, in a campaign marked by a close race between the Tories and Liberals.
In polls and on the ground, the PPC, which finished a far from winning any seat in the 2019 election, appears to be gaining steam over its fiery opposition to mandatory vaccinations, provincial vaccine passports and Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, in general.
The first two issues prove to be a delicate balance for the Conservatives, as the party believes in protecting personal freedoms, but also encourages people to get vaccinated.
A Leger poll released last week in collaboration with The Canadian Press showed the Liberals and Conservatives tied with the support of 32 per cent of decided voters, with the PPC at at five per cent.
O'Toole had been reluctant to say the party's name and in earlier messages only cautioned voters against turning to "smaller parties," saying he didn't want to provide them with free advertising.
But that changed Sunday evening as he rallied supporters in Toronto after a day spent campaigning in the 905 region, one of his most critical paths to victory.
"Justin Trudeau wants you to spilt the vote by voting PPC," he told the crowd of his last in-person rally.
"There's only one way to get change. There's only one way to show Justin Trudeau the door tomorrow, and that's to vote Conservative."
Earlier on Sunday, he stopped in at different campaigns, urging volunteers to pound the pavement and get out the vote because results were going to come down to ground game.
"In this final stretch, talk to your neighbours, go to the Tim Hortons, talk to the person in line with you, distanced of course," he told the crowd of about 30 supporters and volunteers in Oakville, Ont.
"Talk to everyone about our positive vision, Canada's Recovery Plan. Canada's Conservatives — we're not your grandfather's Conservative Party anymore. We're reaching out to everyone, we're a big, blue, positive tent that believes in this great country."
O'Toole has campaigned in a style that is anything but normal, often trading face-to-face interactions with Canadians for a virtual format that relies on people picking up the phone and tuning into online townhalls.
It's a strategy the party hopes delivers them new voters on Monday.
The same goes for his efforts to put a more moderate stamp on the party, which he says needs to grow if hopes to form government and in the past has done a lousy job of convincing people it stands for environmental protection and social issues, including LGBT rights and abortion services.
Even on his last full afternoon on the hustings, O'Toole chose to keep his events restricted to campaign spaces with a small group of volunteers, rather than open himself to inviting crowds of locals.
He made one of his last pitches for Canadians to vote Conservative in a Facebook video from the Toronto suburb of North York, asking residents not to reward Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau for plunging the country into an election during a fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. He also released a mini television documentary the same day in hopes those who still don't know who he is to find out.
O'Toole has refused to say whether he knows how many of his candidates are not double vaccinated, nor will he say if all new MPs would need to get both COVID-19 shots.
O'Toole ducked out without taking questions Sunday, but Kerry Colborne, who's running against Liberal candidate and the minister responsible for vaccine procurement Anita Anand in Oakville, Ont., told reporters she is double-vaccinated and believes it's important to be, but says she can't speak for whether other candidates decide to say whether they are, too.
At another event, Joel Yakov Etienne, the party's candidate for York Centre sported a Conservative Party button that said: "I am double vaxxed."
"It speaks volumes for my current situation," he said.
Questions about the vaccination status of Conservative candidates have followed O'Toole throughout the campaign, in part because he's the only major party leader to not require full immunization. The stance reflects the party's position to respect personal choice.
The Liberals have hammered on the issue in an effort to set themselves apart from the Conservatives. The frequent Liberal broadsides have led O'Toole to say the party leader is dividing Canadians, while Trudeau has countered by comparing O'Toole's leadership to that of premiers in Western Canada, where COVID-19 cases have been spiking.
From Oakville, O'Toole travelled to Markham, Ont., where the party hopes to defeat Liberal candidate and trade minister Mary Ng. He brought a small group of volunteers coffee and doughnuts, and told them Conservatives will fight for more economic opportunities in the region.
The Conservative leader ignored a man holding a sign, who was protesting about the need for public health care to cover autism services.
O'Toole's fate as party leader will be determined by the election outcome and members' thoughts on his campaign. Former prime minister Stephen Harper stepped down after his election defeat in 2015, and Andrew Scheer resigned following the party's 2019 loss, despite trying to hold on.
Asked whether he will stay on as party leader if Conservatives lose Monday's vote, O'Toole simply said in French that "We will win."
Mandryk: Prairie COVID-19 surge may be
bad news for O'Toole elsewhere
This explains why Kenney and Moe have kept a low profile
in his 2021 election. Neither are assets for the federal
Conservative campaign.
Author of the article:Murray Mandryk Publishing date:Sep 18, 2021 •
Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole flips a pancake at a pancake breakfast
at the Calgary Stampede on July 10, 2021.
PHOTO BY TODD KOROL /REUTERS Conservative Party of Canada Leader Erin O’Toole balked when asked what he thinks about the way Alberta Premier Jason Kenney has handled the COVID-19 pandemic.
After Thursday’s debacle, one can only imagine O’Toole’s reaction to the same question about Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe.
In a nutshell, this explains why Kenney and Moe have kept a low profile in this 2021 election. Neither are assets for the federal Conservative campaign … although there are a few nuanced differences in the situation for each prairie premier.
In Alberta, where federal conservatives (be they old Progressive Conservatives, Reform Party, Canadian Alliance or the Conservative Party of Canada) have consistently run ahead of the provincial conservatives. And for Jason Kenney, these are not the best of times. Kenney now lingers near the bottom of Angus Reid polling on premiers’ popularity and again faces what appears to be a legitimate challenge from the NDP and Leader Rachel Notley — something inconceivable after Kenney drew together Alberta’s coalition on the right into one seemingly indestructible political force.
Of course, this was before his handling of COVID-19 that saw Kenney retreating Wednesday to a policy change and an apology to Albertans.
And after Kenney’s pronouncement, he may be driving anti-vaccination, anti-mask, anti-passport Alberta conservatives toward Maxime Bernier’s People’s Party of Canada or the Maverick Party (running 17 Alberta candidates). That is the kind of help that O’Toole and his Alberta candidates surely don’t want. Best not to wake some of those resting in that big conservative tent.
Again, Alberta Conservative candidates can afford to shed a few thousand voters here and there.
But where Kenney’s handling of the pandemic may be a bigger issue for O’Toole is in ridings elsewhere in the country where races are tight and votes lost to the PPC might make a difference.
Asked 11 times on Thursday to comment on Kenney’s plan and handling of the pandemic, O’Toole danced around it.
And now Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are running advertisements of O’Toole saying earlier in the pandemic that maybe other Canadians have something to learn from the UCP and praising Kenney for Alberta’s early reopening. (In no small irony, the NDP has countered with ads of Kenney and Trudeau sitting together as Trudeau congratulates the Alberta premier for reopening in time for the Calgary Stampede.) Moe hasn’t been quite as caught up in the 2021 federal campaign wash and has gone out of his way to avoid becoming embroiled in election issues.
And what is different is that the Saskatchewan Party runs at least even with — or perhaps ahead of — the federal Conservatives in this province and that Moe has remained among the most popular premiers in Canada (or at least he was, before his bungling of the fourth wave). It It will be interesting to watch Moe’s popularity in the months ahead.
But like in Alberta, Conservative candidates here don’t really need the premier’s support. And where Moe might be needed — in the north or a couple city seats — he wasn’t all that popular even before Thursday.
As for the national scene, while Canadians elsewhere know Kenney and have a vague idea of what’s going on with the COVID-19 numbers in Alberta, they don’t pay attention to Saskatchewan and its COVID-19 problem and don’t even really know who Scott Moe is. Given this, it’s best for O’Toole if Moe simply stays home and keeps Bernier’s Purple People at bay. Given how much time Bernier has spent in this province and that he plans to spend election night in Saskatoon, it will be be curious to see whether Moe has accomplished that.
But what’s even more curious is whether big COVID-19 problems on the Prairies are going to register with voters in the waning days of this campaign.
It seems something near impossible to measure. We likely won’t even know on election night.
Suspicions are, however, what’s going on here can’t be good for O’Toole.
Murray Mandryk is the political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post and Saskatoon StarPhoenix.
Why the Canadian election matters to Europe
If Justin Trudeau falls to his conservative opponent, it could change Canada’s relationship with Europe on trade and climate. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau could lose the snap election he called in August | Dave Chan/AFP via Getty Images
Europe has been so busy saying goodbye to its favorite German leader that it hasn’t even noticed that its liberal friend in Canada could be on the verge of taking his own bow.
Monday’s parliamentary election has turned into a much tougher race than Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau expected, and he could lose his job after almost six years in office.
The Canadian leader, who had been leading a minority government, called a snap election in mid-August, backed by favorable polls that indicated he might be able to win a majority in parliament. But his gamble soon turned sour as Canadians unexpectedly started looking to his relatively unknown Conservative opponent, Erin O’Toole.
The Liberals and the Conservatives are now in a dead heat, each polling at around 30 percent. Thanks to the vagaries of Canada’s electoral system, most predictions call for Trudeau to scrape in with another minority government. However, there is also a chance that Europe will have to deal with a new Conservative Party prime minister in Ottawa whose agenda is very different from Trudeau’s.
Any change in Ottawa could cause tremors in Europe, which has enjoyed a steady relationship with Trudeau’s government, giving the bloc a predictable partner on climate issues, human rights, technology, migration and defense as it navigated rocky relationships with other key allies like the U.S. under Donald Trump. Here are a few key areas that could be affected.
CANZUK dreams
Four years after Brussels cinched a major trade agreement with Canada, several European capitals such as Berlin and Amsterdam have yet to greenlight the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, or CETA — leaving billions of euros in goods and services at stake. Several European consumer advocacy groups have filed lawsuits challenging the deal.
O’Toole, 48, does not see Europe as an immediate priority for trade. His policy platform contains very few references to trade with the EU, instead proposing to boost Canada’s relations and exchanges with the U.K., Commonwealth countries and the U.S., where he aims to harmonize farm product regulations.
He has pledged to launch a new trade deal with Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the U.K. — a grouping called CANZUK that’s supported by many Brexit advocates.
The Conservative Party said it would also pursue a trade deal and investment treaty with India.
Separately, O’Toole has promised to enlarge the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, creating more trade links between Canada and several countries in South and Central America and Asia.
For all of O’Toole’s plans, it would be hard for him to dismiss Europe, which is Canada’s third-largest trading partner behind the U.S. and China, with over €79 billion of goods and services exchanged in 2020.
Go slow on climate change
The Conservative leader has signaled he would do a near U-turn from Trudeau on climate change policy.
As one of the world’s highest polluting countries per capita, Canada under Trudeau began implementing climate-friendly policies to limit the footprint of its powerful oil and gas industry, despite considerable pushback in parts of the country. In April, he announced an increase in the pledge Canada made in the 2015 Paris Agreement — aiming to cut emissions by 40 percent to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
O’Toole would return to Canada’s previous objective of slashing emissions by 30 percent by 2030. At a climate summit, O’Toole accused the Liberal government of promoting climate ambitions just to impress the international community, while letting Canada’s oil industry decline.
While O’Toole did lay out a climate action plan — a change from his party’s past approach — he also said a Conservative government would revive dead pipeline projects and build new ones.
“We should make sure that democratic countries use Canadian resources, not resources from Saudi Arabia or Venezuela or Russia,” he said.
The Conservative Party, which wants to protect the country’s oil and gas industry, has pledged to crack down on pipeline protester blockades, lift bans on oil tankers in protected natural areas and pour more money into offshore oil drilling and natural gas exports.
It also wants to cap the price on carbon, a key tool to curb emissions. The Conservatives want to go no higher than 50 Canadian dollars (€33.40) per ton — up from the current 40 Canadian dollars. Trudeau’s government has planned yearly increases up to 170 Canadian dollars a ton by 2030.
“Having a market-based approach means that we cannot ignore the fact that our integrated North American partner — the United States — does not yet have a national carbon pricing system,” the conservative platform reads.
Pivot to Asia
Pitching Canada as a Pacific nation, O’Toole’s election platform argues: “It is in Canada’s interest to join our allies in securing the future of a peaceful Indo-Pacific.”
The Montreal native has taken a hawkish stance on China, promising to ban Huawei equipment from 5G network infrastructure to protect national security and doubling down on rhetoric about “China’s aggression.”
The approach contrasts with Trudeau, who has been more careful dealing with the Asian powerhouse, mirroring the approach taken in much of Europe.
On Thursday, O’Toole said a Conservative government would push to join the U.S., U.K., and Australia in their recently unveiled defense-and-technology-sharing pact. He also said he would seek to join the Quad alliance, which comprises the U.S., Japan, Australia and India.
“Canada is becoming irrelevant under Mr. Trudeau,” O’Toole said at a campaign stop Thursday. “We’re becoming more divided at home, less prosperous and the world is a serious place with challenges.”
An unstable outcome
Even if Trudeau’s Liberal Party wins enough seats to form a minority government, he would face a divided and unstable parliament as he would need to seek support from other parties, such as the left-wing New Democratic Party, the separatist Bloc Québécois and the Green Party.
That could make him a more difficult partner for Brussels, and the turmoil caused by such an outcome could continue to destabilize Canadian politics.
“We may not have a clear outcome, in which case we may be going back to the polls in the spring,” said Michael Wernick, a former senior Canadian government official.
The Irish Times view on elections in Canada: Justin Trudeau’s gamble
Even if Conservatives beat Liberals in popular vote their path to power is far from clear
In August, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau obtained a dissolution of parliament two years before the end of its natural term. The resulting general election will take place today.
Trudeau’s Liberal Party lost its previous overall majority in 2019 and has since depended on support from parties outside the government, principally the left-wing National Democrats.
An opinion poll released just before the dissolution put the Liberals five points ahead of their Conservative rivals. But that lead soon evaporated and several subsequent polls have shown the Conservatives pulling ahead. In the last days before the election the lead has seemed to switch almost every day between the two big parties.
Trudeau has campaigned on his management of the Covid crisis, generally seen as successful. In response to growing concern over the cost of housing he has also promised a temporary ban on foreign investment in residential property. The Conservatives’ Erin O’Toole has had a good campaign.
His advocacy of a more moderate brand of conservatism seems to have gone down well, even if it may puzzle some in the CPC’s traditionally hard-line support base. O’Toole’s repositioning has opened up space on his right for the populist People’s Party, campaigning on an anti-vax, climate-change-sceptic, pro-gun, pro-oil-industry platform.
Populist activists have also broken with the normally civil conduct of Canadian politics, though their rowdy disruption of Liberal rallies may have been counter-productive.
Even if the Conservatives beat the Liberals today in the popular vote their path to power is far from clear. Conservative support is concentrated in western Canada, but most of the seats are in the east, particularly in Ontario and Quebec, where Liberals and the Bloc Québécois are strong.
Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system can also deliver a disproportional result. The Conservatives could break through, with a greater surge than the polls have suggested, but an equally possible scenario is for Trudeau’s Liberals to win more seats than their rivals yet end up back where they started, dependent on the left to govern.
The Election Falls On A Full Moon & An Astrologer Has Predicted What's Going To Go Down
"[Trudeau] probably should have consulted an astrologer!"
The 2021 Canadian federal election falls on a full moon this year and it could have an effect on the results, according to a Canadian astrologer. "When I looked at Justin Trudeau's chart and I looked at Erin O'Toole's chart — his main rival — it was really hard to see a clear winner," said Laurien Rueger, writer and astrologer at Astrology, Eh?.
"They both are facing a lot of challenges," she said. "So it was very difficult to pick one or the other. And I came to the conclusion that it's going to be very tight, and it's going to be a minority government."
Rueger believes that the phase of the moon will have an impact on the election.
"There's a full moon on election night, which usually suggests a time when we're going to be fully aware of a situation. Things culminate on full moons," she said. "But at the same time, we've got a very Neptunian influence, which casts a light of uncertainty."
Based on a factor of celestial movements, Rueger thinks O'Toole has a shot at winning.
"I'm thinking either he's going to win the election and he's going to struggle to build confidence to stay in power because he's going to be outnumbered by the Liberals and the NDP and the Greens, or he's not going to win and he's going to have to fight to retain his leadership of the Conservative Party," Rueger explained.
As for the election being called in the first place, Rueger said that Trudeau should have reached out for some advice.
"It wasn't the best time for him to make this kind of a gamble," she said. "He probably should have consulted an astrologer."
This interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.
The Election Falls On A Full Moon & An Astrologer Has Predicted What's Going To Go Down
Poll: Liberals and Conservatives in "statistical tie" ahead of Election Day
Sarah Anderson Sep 19 2021, 10:43 am Marc Bruxelle/Shutterstock
New findings from the Angus Reid Institute shows that both the Liberals and the Conservatives are leading but they’re essentially “tied” ahead of Election Day.
On Monday, September 20, Canada is headed to the polls to vote in its 44th federal elections.
“The Liberals and the Conservatives are separated by very little daylight,” said the institute in a release.
They say both parties are “fighting for advantage in a race that may now depend on factors not entirely in their control: voter turnout, and the performance of other parties.”
The “statistical tie” has the CPC at 32% and the Liberals at 30% of voter support.
According to Angus Reid, the CPC as usual has strong support in the Praries, but it’s gaining support in BC.
The Liberals appear to have the upper hand in Ontario, however, they have dropped from 36% of voter support at the start of their campaign.
But Angus Reid says both parties are “feeling the squeeze” as support for the New Democratic Party surges and the People’s Party of Canada emerges.
The poll represents the findings of an online survey from September 15 to 18 from a randomized sample of 2,042 Canadian members of Angus Reid Forum.
Election Day in Canada is on Monday, September 20, and you can go to Elections Canada to find out more and how you can vote. Also, thanks to the Canada Elections Act, you are entitled to three hours off work to go vote, without losing pay.
Infographic: All you need to know about the Canadian election
Canadians go to the polls on Monday. Here’s what you need to know about the parties, leaders, and key election issues.
More than 27 million people are eligible to vote as Canadians on September 20 will elect the country's next parliament [Al Jazeera] By Alia Chughtai 19 Sep 2021
Canadians will vote on Monday to elect the country’s 44th Parliament after a campaign that has seen Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s Liberal Party in a tight race against the opposition Conservatives.
More than 27 million people are eligible to vote, according to Elections Canada, which reported this week that approximately 5.78 million ballots have been cast in advance polls.
On election day, the polls open and close at staggered times across Canada, which stretches across several time zones. The last polls close on the country’s west coast at 7pm local time (02:00 GMT).
Election officials say the final results could be delayed in some close races as mail-in ballots, expected to number in the hundreds of thousands, are counted.
Here’s all you need to know about the Canadian electoral system, the key issues at the heart of this year’s campaign, who Canada’s main party leaders are, and what they have promised.
The system
Canada is a parliamentary democracy.
Monday’s vote will decide the 338 seats in the House of Commons, the lower house of parliament.
To achieve a majority government, a party needs to secure 170 seats.
To win a majority, a party must get 170 seats in the House of Commons [Alia Chughtai/Al Jazeera]
Key issues
The federal election campaign comes amid the COVID-19 pandemic.
Canada has reported more than 1.56 million cases and more than 27,300 coronavirus-related deaths to date, according to Johns Hopkins University data.
In addition to the pandemic, the economy, housing, the climate crisis and health care are some of the critical issues on the minds of Canadians ahead of Monday’s vote.
COVID-19, the economy, housing, the climate crisis and health care are some of the critical issues on the minds of Canadians [Alia Chughtai/Al Jazeera] Poll numbers
The Liberals, headed by Trudeau, and the Conservative Party, led by Erin O’Toole, have been neck-and-neck throughout the campaign, each polling at about the 31 to 32-percent mark. But the Liberals are projected to secure more seats in parliament than the Conservatives.
Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party has come in third with about 20-percent support.
Here’s how the parties stacked up as of September 19:
The Liberals and Conservatives have been in a tight race
[Alia Chughtai/Al Jazeera]
Liberal Party
Trudeau has faced criticism for calling an election two years ahead of schedule, but he defended the decision by saying he wanted Canadians to have a say in how the country recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic.
But the Liberal leader has been met by angry protesters on the campaign trail, with demonstrators denouncing mandatory vaccines and other public health measures.
Last week, after groups of anti-vaxxers organised protests outside Canadian hospitals, Trudeau announced that if re-elected, his party would make it an offence to block access to healthcare facilities or to harass healthcare workers and patients seeking care.
Justin Trudeau represents the electoral district of Papineau in Montreal, Quebec [Al Jazeera]
Conservative Party
The Conservative Party has made gains since the start of the election campaign, getting into a close race against the Liberals.
O’Toole, the party leader, has promised billions in new investments if elected and says the Conservatives would balance the budget in 10 years “without cuts” through its economic stimulus and growth plan.
Earlier in the campaign, the Conservatives faced public backlash for saying they would roll back some gun control measures that Trudeau’s government enacted last year. O’Toole later went back on that pledge, saying he would keep the curbs in place.
Erin O’Toole won the Conservative Party leadership in 2020 [Al Jazeera]
New Democratic Party
Singh, the first person of colour to lead a federal party in Canada, and his left-leaning New Democratic Party are proposing a $20 minimum wage and 10 days of paid sick leave for all federally regulated workplaces which include, amongst others, airlines, banks and most Crown corporations.
The NDP also has pledged to reduce carbon emissions to 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030.
Late last month, Singh emerged as the most likeable federal party leader in an Ipsos poll; 45 percent of respondents viewed him favourably, compared with 41 percent for Trudeau, who finished second.
Jagmeet Singh in 2017 became the first visible minority leader of a federal party in Canada [Al Jazeera]
Bloc Quebecois
Yves-Francois Blanchet is the leader of the Bloc Quebecois, a party that only runs candidates in the French-speaking province of Quebec.
Under Blanchet, who represents Beloeil-Chambly, a riding (electoral district) south of Montreal, the party increased its seats in Parliament from 10 to 32 in the last federal election in 2019.
The party says it will introduce a bill making sufficient French-language knowledge a condition for granting Canadian citizenship to immigrants in Quebec, and it has also called for no interference from Ottawa on Quebec laws. That demand comes in light of a controversial provincial law known as Bill 21 that bars some public servants from wearing religious symbols – such as the hijab – while on the job.
The Bloc Quebec bills itself as the only party to defend Quebec’s interests at the federal level [Al Jazeera]
Green Party The Green Party won three seats in the last federal election.
Annamie Paul won the party leadership last year but, along with Maxime Bernier, she is one of two federal party leaders who are not members of parliament after she lost a by-election in Toronto Centre in October 2020. She is campaigning for that same seat in this election.
The Greens’ platform primarily focuses on the environment, and the party has pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.
The Green Party has promised to cancel all new pipeline projects in Canada [Al Jazeera] People’s Party
The far-right People’s Party has no representative in Parliament and got only 1.6 percent of the vote in 2019.
Leader Maxime Bernier formed the party in 2018 after he narrowly lost the Conservative leadership race. Under the PPC banner, Bernier lost his seat in Quebec’s rural Beauce riding, which he had held since 2006, in the last federal election.
The PPC is running on an anti-coronavirus vaccine and anti-immigration platform.
Bernier, a former Conservative MP and cabinet member, formed the PPC after losing the Conservative leadership race in 2017 [Al Jazeera] SOURCE: AL JAZEERA
