Saturday, March 19, 2022

With surging inflation, how do current prices compare to Alberta's last oil boom?


Adam Lachacz
CTVNewsEdmonton.ca 
Digital Producer
Published March 18, 2022 

As the price of transportation, groceries, and housing continues to pressure Albertans' budgets, one economist says our cost of living for some expenses is actually less than it was back during the last oil boom in 2007.

Alexander Gainer, an associate lecturer with the University of Alberta economics department, says most prices now are cheaper than 15 years ago once you adjust for inflation.

"When we calculate real price, it's just a way to adjust for inflation so that we can compare prices between different years to make it more of an apples-to-apples comparison," Gainer told CTV News Edmonton.

When it comes to housing, the average price in Edmonton 15 years ago was $382,000. When adjusted to the real cost, that figure is just below $516,000. In 2022, the average single-family home in Edmonton is approximately $494,000.

"On top of this, interest rates are really low now, so people's monthly mortgage rate would be much lower than it was in 2007," Gainer said.

While the cost of living in Alberta still remains one of the lowest in Canada, inflation is really affecting the price of groceries.

The cost of one kilogram of prime rib was around $19 in 2007. Adjusted for inflation would be closer to $26 today, but we pay $43.

"Meat prices are one of the biggest drivers of inflation and cost of living right now," Gainer added.

Gainer says that gas prices are also higher now than they were in 2007. Today, the cost of regular in Alberta hovered around $1.66. Fifteen years ago, the price of gas was 97 cents a litre, with an adjusted price of $1.33.

The average hourly wage in 2007 was around $21. Adjusted for inflation, that would be $29. In Alberta today, that would be slightly less than $33 per hour.

USED TO STABLE INFLATION

According to a Leger poll released this week, 82 per cent of respondents in Alberta indicated that inflation represents either a "very serious" or "somewhat serious" problem. Only one per cent said inflation was not a serious problem to them at all.

"Inflation in Alberta and Canada has been between one and three per cent for most months for the last few decades," Gainer told CTV News. "But, starting around last summer it really started accelerating. It's a lot higher. We are around five per cent by the latest data."

Sixty-two per cent of Albertans that took part in the national poll rated the state of their household finances as "very good," while 35 and 25 per cent said it was "poor" or "very poor," respectively.

Of those that responded to the poll, Leger says more than 90 per cent of respondents indicated the worst impacts of inflation were felt by Albertans when paying for groceries, gas, and household utilities.

As inflation rises, the poll asked what steps Albertans were already or planning to take. According to the survey, 85 per cent of respondents said they were reducing food waste to make their money spent on groceries go further and that 81 per cent were buying less expensive food items.

Latest figures peg inflation at more than 5.5 per cent in Alberta, Gainer said. That is not expected to slow down until this summer, when most economists predict it will gradually decrease to around 3 per cent, which is considered within the normal range.

RELIEF LIKELY TO COME LATER THIS YEAR

Gainer says the major drivers of inflation are supply chain lingering supply chain challenges, labour shortages, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

"We've seen it drive up oil prices and therefore gas prices right away, that's visible. In a few months, pretty soon, we are going to see that drive up the cost of food as well," Gainer said.

While many people point to government aid provided during the pandemic as another driver of inflation, Gainer says those factors aren't the largest culprit.

"The stimulus that the different levels of government have undertaken and the low-interest rate the Bank of Canada has likely caused a bit of this inflation, but they are not the main culprit here," Gainer said.

"It's really tough to make predictions right now," Gainer said.

"The Bank of Canada and most economists, this was before Russia invaded Ukraine, expect prices to be high through the first half of 2022, and then they expect prices to ease later this year," he added.

The Leger poll, conducted by web survey, had a sample of 1,515 people in Canada, including 195 respondents in Alberta. Data was collected from March 11 and 13.

According to Leger, a margin of error cannot be associated with a non-probability sample. For comparison services, Leger says a sample of similar size would have a plus-minus 2.5 per cent margin of error, 19 times out of 20.

With files from CTV News Edmonton's Jessica Robb

 

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Jasper warns of 'severe' labour shortage
Fairmont Jasper Park Lodge. (CTV News Edmonton)

Joanne McQuarrie
Jasper Fitzhugh
The Local Journalism Initiative
Contact
Published March 17, 2022 

Jasper's labour shortage has become more acute in recent months ahead of a tourist season that is expected to be busy due to loosening health restrictions.

Ginette Marcoux, executive director of the Jasper Employment and Education Centre (JEEC), warned that COVID-19 vaccination requirements may exacerbate the labour shortage.

She noted how a balance needed to be struck between keeping people safe and making sure those seeking jobs feel welcome, vaccinations or not.

“With the lifting of mandatory vaccinations for Alberta Health Services (AHS) and Government of Alberta employees this week, I wonder if employers in Jasper are considering walking back their own vaccination requirements,” she said.

Marcoux said tight labour markets are expected to continue this year, and with that, employers may start lifting their vaccination policies in order to secure more workers.

“We understand that some employers have corporate directives and that it may take time to change policy,” she said.

“JEEC has recently lifted their own mandatory vaccination requirement for new hires in order to consider all skilled candidates when hiring.”

Marcoux spoke with a regional occupational H&S consultant for the Yellowhead area and said they confirmed that many employers east of Jasper-Hinton and Edson-have not implemented any vaccine requirements.

“Finding a way to keep people safe is something we all care about, and ensuring that jobseekers feel welcome to work in Jasper regardless of vaccination may be in our best interest,” Marcoux said.

“Recently, our centre has seen an influx of jobseekers that have either quit or been laid off because they're not vaccinated. Some of these workers are leaving our community at a time when we need workers the most. Can we afford that?”

In its February Job Trends newsletter, JEEC reported how the ski hill was at capacity on the weekends, hotels were reporting low vacancies and restaurants had waitlists.

As of March, there were 310 employers postings and 647 job vacancies.

The destination is now expected to experience a busy summer season as restrictions continue to ease and people begin to travel more freely.

“This is a very confusing time for people,” said Pattie Pavlov, executive director of the Jasper Park Chamber of Commerce.

“We're asking people to be kind, respect people for what works best for them. Most people I've talked to have their staff still wearing masks, but not all.”

Pavlov said she will be meeting with provincial and federal staff in the next three-to-four weeks about the “severe” shortage of workers in Jasper.

“That is one of our top priorities. They need to realize there is a crisis here. The worker shortage, it's been bad and it's getting worse.”

In addition to the shortage of workers, Pavlov said the Chamber is advocating for housing in Jasper.

“You can't have one without the other,” she said.

“You want people to come here and work and enjoy the environment. Where are they going to sleep?”

She said it is not that employers don't want to offer housing to their staff, but rather there are no places to buy.

“Finding a place where you can sign a lease for your staff is near to impossible.”

James Jackson, president and CEO at Tourism Jasper, said the labour shortage in Jasper was “serious.”

“It's something we've known about for some time now. We saw this coming in 2020.”

In 2021, the Tourism Jasper board allocated over $100,000 for its labour attraction campaign.

“The focus is on people in large urban centres who are underemployed, not getting the hours,” Jackson said.

Another focus is high school graduates.

“We want them to stay until the end of October or longer,” Jackson said.

“The third focus is post-secondary graduates, who graduate in April and aren't returning to their studies.”

Jackson said there are a couple of ways to look at local accommodations.

The first is an “acute” perspective, or what's happening today.

“We acknowledge there's a housing shortage. That won't change this year.”

Another way is a long-term approach, working collaboratively with partners in the community and beyond.

Jackson said Tourism Jasper is hosting a round table with Randy Boissonnault, Minister of Tourism and Associate Minister of Finance, who will be in Jasper on March 18 and 19.

“We have to continue to advocate for affordable housing in Jasper,” Jackson said.

“Labour and accommodation will be at the top of the agenda.”

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Rich dinosaur history makes Coates Conservation Lands a find in the Edmonton area

'An exciting place for paleontologists and it's a cool place to

go walking,' says dino hunter Philip Currie


Adrienne Lamb, Rick Bremness · CBC News · 
Edmonton and Area Land Trust staffer Nikki Paskar spends time at Coates Conservation Lands southwest of Edmonton. (Adrienne Lamb/CBC)

Nikki Paskar carefully navigates the hiking trail at Coates Conservation Lands, one hour southwest of Edmonton.

"This place is so special to me," says Paskar, conservation coordinator with the Edmonton and Area Land Trust. "You can sit in the serenity of the forest and just relax and think." 

This 32-hectare space features a 1.3-kilometre trail, which meanders through the forest to the bottom of Willow Creek connecting with the North Saskatchewan River a few kilometres away. 

This land is a wildlife corridor for fox, coyote, moose, snowshoe hare and is also home to a variety of birds, Paskar says. 

Tag along on a tour of Coates Conservation Lands, a natural area with a rich dinosaur history, an hour southwest of Edmonton. 1:39

You can see more from Coates Conservation Lands and 55 other green space gems in the capital region on this map.

Open to the public in 2016, the land was donated to the land trust by Ethel Coates who wanted to see the spot "conserved in perpetuity." 

A natural legacy

Born in 1922 to a farming family in Carbon, Alta., Coates spent 45 years working for Imperial Oil and traveled the world. 

Her niece Cheryl Bissell says Coates taught her family about birds, how to ski and canoe.

"She made you pay attention to nature and all of its offerings, all the while relishing in it herself," Bissell says.

Adventure and nature lover Ethel Coates donated the land to the trust. (Submitted by Edmonton and Area Land Trust)
 

Coates decided to retire in the Calmar area and found "her little piece of heaven" in Willow Creek.

For close to 30 years she gardened, kept bees, walked the hills and valleys and skated on the creek. 

"She loved her land with a passion and never ever wanted to leave it," Bissell says.

Coates died in 2014 at the age of 92. 

In addition to her zeal for nature there was another reason to protect the space — dinosaurs.

A dinosaur bone identified in Willow Creek in the summer of 2015 at Coates Conservation Lands. (Submitted by Edmonton and Area Land Trust)

Dinosaur discoveries

"In the early 1990s Hadrosaur footprints were extracted from the area via helicopter and brought to the Royal Tyrrell Museum," Paskar says.

"Shortly after that they found Albertosaurus skin impressions as well as a number of dinosaur bones."

Philip Currie remembers it well.

"It's a pretty cool story," says the paleontology professor at the University of Alberta.

The world-renowned dinosaur hunter was called to the area in 1994 to investigate a find by 12-year-old Tess Owen and her father Tom Owen. 

The skin impression of an Albertosaurus, a type of tyrannosaur, was found at the bottom of the creek. The fossil may have fallen from the cliff above although, Currie says, they weren't able to pinpoint the exact spot. 

It's now in the back collections of the Royal Tyrell Museum in Drumheller, where researchers are still studying it.

"In fact, it has attracted a lot of attention over the years because skin impressions of tyrannosaurs are pretty rare," Currie says.

Philip Currie leads a team of University of Alberta students unearthing dinosaur bones at a quarry in south Edmonton in 2017. (Jane Robertson/CBC)

Alberta is rich with specimens and the Edmonton area is no exception. 

"Even people who dig sewers hit dinosaur bones periodically," Currie says.

Protected areas like Coates, where people can wander and observe, are fantastic.

"I think it's an exciting place for paleontologists and it's a cool place to go walking."

Coates and 10 other natural areas are open to the public under the stewardship of the Edmonton and Area Land Trust.

The day-use area has interpretive signs along the trail and a small parking lot at the intersection of Township Road 502A and Range Road 280.

A view of Willow Creek running through Coates Conservation Lands. (David Bajer/CBC)

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Adrienne Lamb

Adrienne Lamb is an award-winning journalist based in Edmonton. She's the host and producer of Our Edmonton featured weekly on CBC TV. Adrienne has spent the last couple of decades telling stories across Canada.

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Ancient handprints on cave walls in Spain found to include children's hands

cave art
Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

A trio of researchers from Universidad de Cantabria and the University of Cambridge has found evidence suggesting that up to a quarter of all ancient handprints found on cave walls in Spain were made using children's hands. In their paper published in the Journal of Archaeological Science, Verónica Fernández-Navarro, Edgard Camarós and Diego Garate describe their study of ancient hand prints found in five Spanish caves and what they believe their findings suggest about ancient hand prints on cave walls in general.

Over the past several decades,  prints on  have come to represent ancient cave art as much as drawings of animals. Scientists studying the handprints have generally agreed that they, along with the animal drawings, were all likely done by males in a given group. In this new effort, the researchers have found evidence suggesting that up to a quarter of all cave hand prints were made using children's hands.

The researchers began their work by noting that there is very little mention of the impact or activities of children in ancient societies. That led them to wonder about some of the art on the walls of caves across Europe and in Spain in particular—and that led them to take a closer look at the hand prints.

In studying the hand prints, the researchers noted that most of them appeared to have been made using stencils, rather than applying ink to the hand and pressing it against the wall. They also found that most of the stenciled hands had been created using a common technique of the time—placing a hand near a wall and blowing pigments at it using a hollow bone or reed. They further noted that rather than placing their hands on the wall, most of the prints had been done by holding the hand a little distance from the wall—a means for generating a stencil with a slightly 3D look. In replicating the technique with their own hands, they found that such an approach led to a stenciled hand that was slightly larger than the hand used to create it. They then closely studied hundreds of the hand prints, taking careful measurements of each while using 3D photogrammetric models as references.

In looking at their data, they found that up to 25% of the hand prints on the walls in five caves in Spain were of children's hands, some of which could have come from toddlers or even infants. They suggest their findings indicate that doing  art was a group activity shared among all members, including children. They also suggest their findings hint that some other ancient forms of art, left behind as artifacts, may have been done by children.

Hand and footprint art dates to mid-Ice Age

More information: Verónica Fernández-Navarro et al, Visualizing childhood in Upper Palaeolithic societies: Experimental and archaeological approach to artists' age estimation through cave art hand stencils, Journal of Archaeological Science (2022). DOI: 10.1016/j.jas.2022.105574

Journal information: Journal of Archaeological Science 

© 2022 Science X Network


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Ancient ancestors evolved to be strong and snappy, study finds

by University of Bristol

Ancient ancestors evolved to be strong and snappy, study finds
Dunkleosteus – one of the animals involved in the research. Credit: Nobu Tamura

Researchers led by the University of Bristol show that the earliest jaws in the fossil record were caught in a trade-off between maximizing their strength and their speed

Almost all vertebrates are jawed vertebrates, including humans, first evolving more than 400 million years ago and distinguished by their teeth-bearing jaws. Humans owe their  to the evolution of jaws, which allowed animals to process a wider variety of foods.

Jaws evolved from the gill arches, a series of structures in fish that support their gills. A new study, published in the journal Science Advances today, explores how a breathing structure came to be a biting structure. To do this, researchers based at Bristol's School of Earth Sciences collected data on the shapes of fossil jaws during their  and mathematical models to characterize them. These models allowed the team to extrapolate a wide range of theoretical jaw shapes that could have been explored by the first evolving jaws. These theoretical jaws were tested for their strength—how likely they were to break during a bite, and their —how efficiently they could be opened and closed. These two functions are in a trade-off—meaning that increasing the strength usually means decreasing the speed or vice versa.

Comparing the real and theoretical jaw shapes revealed that jaw evolution has been constrained to shapes that have the highest possible speed and strength. Specifically, the earliest jaws in the dataset were extremely optimal, and some groups evolved away from this optimum over time. These results suggest that the evolution of biting was very quick.

William Deakin, Ph.D. student at the University of Bristol and lead author, said: "Jaws are an extremely important feature to gnathostomes—or jaw-mouths. They are not only extremely widespread, but almost all creatures that have them, use them in the same way—to grab food and process it. That's more than can be said for an arm or a foot or a tail, which can be used for all sorts of things.

"This makes jaws extremely useful to anyone studying the evolution of function. Very different jaws from very different animals can be tested in similar ways. Here we have shown that studies on a large variety of jaws, using theoretical morphology and adaptive landscapes to capture their variety in function, can help shed some light on evolutionary questions."

Philip Donoghue, Professor of Palaeobiology at Bristol and co-author of the study, said: "The earliest jawed vertebrates have jaws in all shapes and sizes, long thought to reflect adaptation to different functions. Our study shows that most of this variation was equally optimal for  and speed, making for fearsome predators."

Emily Rayfield, also a Professor of Palaeobiology at Bristol and co-author of the study, added: "The new software that Will developed to analyze the  of jawed vertebrates, is unique. It allows us to map the design space of key anatomical innovations, like jaws, and determine their functional properties. We plan to use it uncover many more of the secrets of evolutionary history."Jaws: How an African ray-finned fish is helping us to rethink the fundamentals of evolution

More information: William J. Deakin et al, Increasing morphological disparity and decreasing optimality for jaw speed and strength during the radiation of jawed vertebrates, Science Advances (2022). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abl3644. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abl3644

Journal information: Science Advances 

Provided by University of Bristol 

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Albertans could lose power, heat as disconnection moratorium lifts next month

In Alberta, residents cannot be disconnected from their utilities during winter months, defined as Oct. 15 to April 15 each year.

Author of the article: Dylan Short
Publishing date: Mar 19, 2022 • 
 
Albertans who have fallen behind on their energy bills could see services limited or disconnected starting in mid-April. 
PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK /Postmedia

More than 1,000 Albertans could be at risk of being disconnected from their utilities next month when the provincial restriction on stopping services is lifted.

In Alberta, residents cannot be disconnected from their utilities during winter months, defined as Oct. 15 to April 15 each year. This year’s winter has seen bills across the province skyrocket, leading the Opposition NDP to raise concerns over next month’s deadline.

Energy critic Kathleen Ganley attempted to continue to the freeze of disconnections through the summer until next year’s moratorium becomes active. However, that proposal was defeated in the legislative assembly.

NDP Leader Rachel Notley said Friday that she believes there are “tens of thousands” of Albertans who are behind on their bills.

“We don’t know the exact details, but we do know that the government has the opportunity to protect those families,” said Notley while presenting a proposal to combat rising inflation. “That is what we are asking them to do.”

When the NDP was in power, it implemented a rate cap in 2016 that limited costs to 6.8 cents per kilowatt for regulated rate option contracts. That price cap was scrapped by the current United Conservative government in 2019.

Associate Minister of Natural Gas and Electricity Dale Nally said in a statement that data on potential disconnects is not yet available but that last year, there were 1,485 disconnections reported to the provincial Utility Consumer Advocate as part of the reconnection program. In 2017-18 there were more than 3,000 reported disconnects.

Those reports do not include all stoppages of services, but rather outline how many people did not have access to their utilities throughout the summer months up until Oct. 15 of last year.

“We regularly keep in contact with retailers about market conditions and issues like disconnections. This week, there was not an above-average number of disconnections disclosed to us compared to what has been seen in past years on April 15,” said Nally in a statement. “We will stay in close contact with these retailers and take action if these numbers rise to concerning levels. The true impact of accounts in arrears from the January to February billing cycles will not be known until about May or June.”

Albertans have been hit hard by rising utility bills as demand driven by extreme weather has been coupled with market factors driving up prices with some Calgarians reporting nearly a doubling on their bills compared to last year. In response, the government implemented a natural gas rebate that will kick in next winter if prices exceed $6.50 per gigajoule. The UCP’s projections in its latest budget do not expect prices to reach those prices but Finance Minister Travis Toews said Albertans will be protected if prices continue to rise.

The government has also created a $150 retroactive rebate for electricity prices over the past three months and has reduced provincial taxes on gasoline to help ease record inflation rates brought on in part by soaring gas prices and unprecedented demand in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Enmax, the company that supplies power to a large number of Calgarians, cited privacy reasons as it said it could not provide numbers on how many residents are at risk of losing power. Spokesperson Chinta Puxley said Enmax will reach out to customers on load limiters — devices that restrict power to a few essential items in the home — to help find manageable payment options.

Epcor, which provides power to Edmontonians, said it expects the same number of people to be on load limiters as in previous years when April 15 arrives. It, too, said the company would work with customers who are behind on their payments.

Nally said the most important thing Albertans can do if they fear they are facing a loss in utilities is to stay in contact with their providers. He also said they can contact the Utility Consumer Advocate for more information on specialized programs or contract support.

“Retailers have committed to exploring every option possible to help their customers stay connected with payment plans or other solutions, and they will proactively reach out if a customer is nearing disconnection,” said Nally.

Nally said accepting the NDP’s proposal to extend the moratorium on removing services would cost Albertans in the long run as other consumers would have to pick up the bill.

THOSE OTHER CONSUMERS ARE BUSINESSES

dshort@Postmedia.com
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ANTI-VAXXERS RALLY
Vancouver plaza flooded with protesters and counter-protesters on Saturday (PHOTOS)

If you heard a commotion downtown on Saturday afternoon, it was probably the protesters at Jack Poole Plaza.
Vancouver Police said they had to shut down several roads in the area near Coal Harbour because of the congestion.

Protestors took over the plaza on March 19, with convoy supporters on one side and counter-protestors on the other.

“There were people protesting for freedom and then people counter-protesting the freedom protesters,” the VPD said in an email to Daily Hive Vancouver.

There were around 1,500 people by 3 pm.

Mask mandates have already been lifted in the province, but these protests might keep happening until all laws related to COVID-19 are dropped.

Recently, BC Premier John Horgan told convoy protestors to “give their head a shake,” which also agitated some people who support them.

Counter-protestors spotted Canadian conspiracy theorist Chris Sky at Jack Poole Plaza with a camera crew.

The Community Over Convoys group, which organizes against “Freedom Convoy” supporters in Vancouver, tweeted they were “kicked out” of the space by VPD after being told they needed a permit.


They also tweeted about several arguments between the two groups, with convoy supporters allegedly getting confrontational and following them even after VPD told them to leave.


Daily Hive Vancouver reached out to Community Over Convoys for comment and will update this story.

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UCP KENNEY leaked confidential poll data despite refused permission, Alberta pollster says

UCP 'really did cherry pick' numbers that it leaked, says

 pollster Janet Brown

Dominika Lirette · CBC News · 
Pollster Janet Brown says the United Conservative Party leaked data from a poll she did that was favourable to Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, but did not provide the full context of those results. (Todd Korol/The Canadian Press)

An Alberta pollster is calling out the United Conservative Party for leaking private data from a poll she did, which shows the party has moved ahead in popular support.

Janet Brown believes the party leaked some of the more favourable results from her poll, because Premier Jason Kenney's leadership review is coming up on April 9, and memberships need to be bought by Saturday.

However, she said that the leaked information is missing context and doesn't include some of the less flattering data. 

"They had asked me if I would be willing to put this data out, because they thought it would work to their advantage," said Brown. "I had said 'no' to them on a couple of occasions, but they leaked the numbers anyway."

Brown runs Opinion Research, which does polling for clients across the political spectrum, as well as unions and other businesses. She also sends a syndicated report, called The Wild Ride Update, to subscribers, one of which is the UCP.

The subscription agreement, however, states that subscribers must keep the data in her reports confidential, she explained while on CBC's Daybreak Alberta.

"My business model just doesn't work if the data the client has paid for is out there in the media."

Janet Brown, shown here, knows it was the UCP who leaked the poll because of the unique footer marked at the bottom of every page of the report. (CBC)

Brown says she knows it was the UCP who leaked the poll because each report she gives to clients has a unique footer at the bottom of every page.

"The reporters who have received the document have confirmed to me that the document they receive is the one that I prepared for the initial party," she said while on CBC's West of Centre.

The UCP has not responded to CBC's requests for comment. 

UCP 'really did cherry pick' results, says Brown

Earlier this week, Alberta government political staffers received emails asking them to take Friday off work and volunteer to call supporters ahead of the leadership vote.

The latest Angus Reid Institute poll suggests Kenney has a 30 per cent approval rating — second-lowest among the provincial premiers. Kenney is also combatting critics within his party, namely Brian Jean.

Jean, who recently won the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection as the UCP candidate, has been outspoken about Kenney needing to step down as party leader, and will be gunning for that role on April 9.

"They very much wanted to have some good news out there, because so many other polls were not reflecting very positive on the UCP," said Brown. 

Brian Jean, right, just won the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche byelection as the UCP candidate. He has previously said replacing Jason Kenney, left, is his first priority. (Chris Schwarz/Government of Alberta, submitted by Brian Jean)

Lori Williams, an associate professor of policy studies at Mount Royal University, says this leak shows there is a lot of nerves at the premier's office.

"This and a number of other things indicate that there is a great deal of concern, almost panic, it seems," she said.

"They are very worried about the vote on April 9th and they are pulling out all the stops to try to manage a win."

Brown says the party "really did cherry pick" the data, explaining that what was leaked is missing context.

For example, Brown's poll suggests the UCP is ahead by four points and that the premier's approval rating has climbed from an "abysmally low" 19 per cent to the current level of 36 per cent.

Yet, the reporting so far doesn't focus on the fact that 60 per cent of Albertans disapprove of the job that Kenney has done as premier.

Also, 55 per cent of the poll's respondents said they find what Kenney says about the economy and Alberta's future as not very, or not at all, trustworthy, she said. 

"So, yes, things have definitely improved for the UCP, things have improved for the Premier," Brown said.

"But there's a lot of data in here that would suggest that this is probably not the celebration that the UCP want it to be." 

 

Brown added that her polls also track what she calls "soft" or "orphaned" voters — people that didn't give an opinion. Without factoring them in, someone cannot accurately comprehend the results.

In the poll that was leaked, soft voters made up about 14 per cent of respondents. This suggests that there are still many voters who are "sitting on the sidelines," not really knowing what happens next, she said.

They are undecided, in part, because they don't know who the premier will be as of April 10.

'Unethical,' says political scientist

Williams says the UCP leaking this data is "unethical," because the data was supposed to be confidential and they didn't include all of the information when they leaked it.

"This is the bread and butter for Janet Brown and her polling organization. So they're basically jeopardizing her business for the sake of what they thought might be a good news story at a time when the news is otherwise very bad," she said.

"But then there's the dishonesty involved in releasing information that looks like it's saying one thing, when if all the information were released, it would be clear that it's saying something quite different."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR




 

Dominika Lirette

Reporter/Editor

Dominika Lirette is a reporter at CBC Calgary. Twitter: @LiretteDominika

    With files from Daybreak Alberta and West of Centre podcast


    Braid: Pollster says she was pressured by UCP and the premier's office

    Janet Brown accuses the UCP of 'spinning' her numbers and releasing private commercial information


    Author of the article: Don Braid • Calgary Herald
    Publishing date:Mar 18, 2022 • 
    The Alberta Legislature is seen at sunset in Edmonton. 

    Pollster Janet Brown regularly produces an Alberta opinion survey called Wild Ride Update. The latest took her on a wilder ride than she ever expected.

    She accuses the UCP of “spinning” her numbers and releasing private commercial information.

    Brown came under intense political pressure when her poll for paying clients showed a strong government comeback, with even the prospect of a majority in next year’s election.

    Calls urging her to release the poll came from senior levels of both the party and the premier’s office.

    “They were desperate for some good news ahead of the leadership vote, and they thought they could spin these numbers in a positive light. I repeatedly told them ‘No,’ but they leaked them to the media anyway.”

    Journalists began getting summaries or the poll itself, sometimes from roundabout routes.

    The poll, which I received, is certainly dramatic.

    Brown says that in current conditions the UCP could win 40 per cent of the popular vote and 47 legislature seats, compared to 36 per cent and 40 seats for the NDP.

    Other pollsters show much lower popularity and vote percentage for Premier Jason Kenney and his party.

    Brown’s work was exactly what they’ve been praying for — a positive, reputable poll with the leadership review looming on April 9, and new party membership sales for that vote cutting off at midnight Saturday.

    But there was a problem. The information is confidential. Brown agrees with all her paying clients — everyone from unions to parties and companies — not to make results public.

    “The United Conservative Party is a subscriber, and earlier this week, they asked me repeatedly if I would release some of the data,” Brown said.

    “I explained to the UCP that a leak would cause issues for me with the other subscribers. But they still leaked some of the numbers.”

    When her data goes public, she says, her whole business is threatened.

    “Who will want to pay for the information? My polling methods are very expensive. I can’t do this without the support of my clients.”

    With the most dramatic numbers out of the bag, Brown says the leaks “stripped out the context” of her findings.

    “For instance, the survey also showed that 60 per cent of Albertans disapprove of the job Jason Kenney is doing as premier,” she said.

    “And 55 per cent find the things Jason Kenney says about Alberta’s economy and future to be not very or not at all trustworthy.

    “I’ve been pulled into this unwillingly, but now that it’s out there I feel I should provide that context.”

    The original source of the leak seems obvious.

    Brown marks each client’s copy with their name, “partly so I’ll know who leaked it if that happens,” she says.

    Every page of the copy I received says “UCP.”

    Independent pollster Janet Brown accuses the UCP of “spinning” her numbers and releasing private commercial information. 
    PHOTO BY HANDOUT /Postmedia

    Brown stresses that the party did not order this poll. All clients receive her regular syndicated survey and she decides on the issues.

    The other question, of course, is the credibility of the poll itself. Brown is out of sync with others who now find only a modest UCP comeback

    But she has a long record of producing results that seem eccentric at first and then prove to be correct.

    In 2008, when everybody thought then-premier Ed Stelmach was in difficulty, she predicted he would win between 70 and 72 legislature seats. He got 72.

    In the 2012 provincial election, Brown was as wrong as everyone else, expecting a Wildrose victory that turned out to be another big PC win.

    That’s when she became convinced there was a “structural problem” in Alberta polling and revised her methods, especially the handling of undecided voters.

    As a result, she often finds higher conservative support than other pollsters do.

    “It’s been a challenge my whole career, trying to convince people that when I have results they’re not the results I want, they’re what I find and believe to be going on in Alberta.”

    Governments and parties love her or hate her depending on her results.

    “The UCP caucus cancelled my subscription a year ago because they were so appalled by my numbers.

    “I did some work on Alberta’s reputation outside the province, and Jason Kenney stood in front of the Calgary Chamber of Commerce and basically called my work un-Albertan.”

    Now her findings are suddenly correct because they’re useful.

    “I’m just a girl in a bathrobe trying to do good work in an industry of giants,” Brown says.

    “Being accurate has always been a lot more important to me than being popular. I treasure my independence.”

    Her new findings have been sucked into Alberta’s frantic political whirlwind and spun out again for purely partisan reasons.

    Given her record, however, her take on the UCP comeback might just turn out to be right.

    Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Calgary Herald.
    Twitter: Don Braid
    Facebook: Don Braid Politics
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