Saturday, April 16, 2022

How Global Is the North Korean Economy?

North Korea may be one of the most autarkic economies in the world, but it is far from isolated from global fluctuations. Market price data suggests that North Korea faces much more volatile fluctuations and often much more extreme price swings than those on international markets. At the same time, market prices in North Korea do tend to move in a relatively similar direction as global price trends most of the time, although sometimes in a delayed fashion. This demonstrates that while the North Korean economy is often guided by factors other than global markets, it is far from insulated and isolated from global economic trends.[1]

Global Food Prices

To understand how domestic food prices are impacted by international market swings, consider the graph below (Graph 1) that shows a comparison of rice prices in North Korea with global markets:

Graph 1. Rice prices, North Korea vs. global markets (USD/kg)

Graph by author. Data sources: Daily NK for North Korean data, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank for global prices.

Rice prices in North Korea tend to move in tandem with global markets, but with some time variation. For example, global rice prices increased from 0.38 USD in April 2016 by 21 percent to 0.46 USD that July. North Korea similarly experienced a price rise of almost 21 percent around the same time but in a delayed manner. Prices began rising from 0.58 USD in June 2016 to 0.66 USD that September and plateaued at a total increase of 20.7 percent in October of that same year at 0.70 USD.

Prices also often fluctuate more strongly in North Korea. For example, global market prices rose from 0.36 USD in November 2016 by 22 percent to 0.44 USD in June 2017. North Korea experienced a similar price rise from 0.52 USD in January 2017 by twice the global increase at 44 percent to 0.75 USD that September.

Despite North Korea’s COVID-19 border closure, domestic rice prices have moved in conjunction with international ones. In July 2020, the global market price for 1 kg of rice was 0.46 USD, and the price in North Korea was very close at 0.50 USD. Until February 2021, prices rose on both global markets and in North Korea, but much more drastically in the latter. The global price increased by 17 percent to 0.54 USD, and North Korean prices went up by 42 percent to 0.71 USD.

The more drastic price swings are likely, at least in part, caused by a lack of information on North Korean markets. While price changes in North Korea are often more drastic, they tend to move in parallel with global market prices.

Graph 2. Percentage change in rice prices, North Korea vs. global markets.

Graph by author. Data sources: Daily NK for North Korean data, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank for global prices.

Information from the outside world about supply conditions takes longer to reach North Korea than other countries. Furthermore, poor infrastructure and communication inside the country means price information travels more slowly domestically. Thus, rice prices in North Korea may change more drastically to indications of lower supply or increased demand, leading to large temporary price spikes. As Graph 2 shows, for example, in January 2020, global prices increased by 7.94 percent. In the following month, prices in North Korea spiked by 27.74 percent. Global market prices rose again by 0.22 percent in November 2020, while they increased by 15.86 percent in North Korea. As prices are already consistently higher in North Korea, these fluctuations likely caused significant hardships.

This pattern is similar for corn prices, which are almost consistently higher in North Korea and fluctuate more drastically than on global markets.

Graph 3. Corn prices, North Korea vs. global markets (USD/kg).

Graph by author. Data sources: Daily NK for North Korean data, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank for global prices.

Graph 4. Percentage change in corn prices, North Korea vs. gobal markets.

Graph by author. Data sources: Daily NK for North Korean data, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank for global prices.

The data both on rice and corn shows that global price movements generally impact food prices in North Korea. At the same time, they can also significantly differ, highlighting the still relatively closed nature of North Korea’s economy. For example, the drastic price rise from November 2020 most likely stemmed from an increase in domestic demand due to food shortages following the country’s COVID-19 border closure.

Oil and Fuel Prices

Gasoline prices appear to be less influenced by global oil prices.

Graph 5. North Korean gas prices vs. global oil prices (USD/kg).

Graph by author. Data sources: Daily NK for North Korean data, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank for global prices.

As this comparison above clearly demonstrates, the rate of price changes for oil in North Korea appears to be heavily influenced by other factors other than global price trends.

Graph 6. Percentage change in fuel prices, North Korean gas prices vs. global oil prices.

Graph by author. Data sources: Daily NK for North Korean data, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank for global prices.

While there may be occasional periods where the global price and North Korean prices move in tandem, such as in the first few months of 2016, this is not usually the case. North Korean gas prices tend to be strongly impacted by the state of North Korea-China relations, as China supplies the overwhelming majority of oil and fuel to North Korea. It is possible that the impact of global oil prices on gas inside North Korea comes exclusively from the share of oil and fuel imports that are private rather than what North Korea receives from China on a non-commercial basis.

Foreign Exchange Rates

Foreign exchange rates are the market prices in North Korea that move in closest tandem with global markets. This is not surprising since the supply of these currencies is entirely controlled by international governments and markets.

Graph 7. Renminbi-US dollar (RMB-USD) exchange rate, North Korean and international markets.

Graph by author. Data sources: Daily NK for North Korean data, St Louis Federal Reserve Bank for global prices.

However, as made evident in the graph above (Graph 7), conditions specific to North Korea clearly have a strong impact as well. For example, exchange rates have been lower in North Korea than in the rest of the world for most of the COVID-19 period. This is because foreign currency lost much of its economic utility during the border shutdown. The somewhat higher volatility of exchange rates in North Korea can probably be explained, too, by the lack of trustworthy and adequate market information inside the country.

Conclusion

The North Korean economy may be more internationally disconnected than most, but, as this analysis shows, it is not insulated from global price changes. Through both legal imports and smuggling, price changes on global markets usually find their way to North Korea, too, albeit with some delay. Price fluctuations in North Korea are more volatile than in global markets, which reflects the lack of transparent and easily available information on North Korean markets. Thus, although we cannot specify precisely to what extent, even the supposedly autarkic North Korean economy is solidly connected to the rest of the world.


  1. [1]

    When using price data from North Korea to study complex issues, a caveat is necessary. I use data from the Daily NK’s market price index, which uses information from sources inside North Korea that cannot be verified. Moreover, I compare the average of price data observations for each month with monthly global price data. Since data for domestic prices in North Korea and global prices are not reported in the same time format, there may be some irregularities.

Pakistan army denies ‘foreign conspiracy’ behind Imran's ouster

Omer Farooq Khan 
© Provided by The Times of India


ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s military on Thursday plainly denied that there had been discussion at a National Security Committee meeting last month about a “foreign conspiracy aimed at regime change in Pakistan”, as claimed by former prime minister Imran Khan.

In a wide ranging press conference, Maj Gen Babar Iftikhar, the army’s spokesperson, said that Pakistan’s institutions are fully capable of thwarting international conspiracies but the minutes of the national security committee meeting did not contain the word “conspiracy”.

“As far as the military’s response about the NSC meeting, the stance was fully given and a statement was issued which clearly shows what was concluded in that meeting,” he said.

“The words are in front of you, the words are clear. Was there any word such as ‘conspiracy’ used? I do not think so,” Gen Babar said, noting that the government can declassify the minutes of the NSC meeting if it desires.

The spokesperson said that the cipher from the Pakistan ambassador to the US was also received by the ISI and it briefed the NSC based on that cable. He explained that demarches are given not just on conspiracies but for many reasons. “In this case it was given for undiplomatic language and is equal to interference,” he explained.

He also clarified that the US had never asked for any military bases in Pakistan – countering Imran Khan’s narrative that he was “targeted” by Washington for refusing this demand.

Khan, Babar said, was asked about giving bases to the US in an interview. “If a demand like that would have been made, the army would have had the same stance as the PM. But the reality is that they never asked for bases,” he stated.

Commenting on Khan’s Moscow visit, Gen Iftikhar confirmed that the army was on board and was taken into confidence. “There was institutional input that he should go. It was in no one’s wildest dreams that they (Russia) would announce war when the prime minister was there, which was obviously very embarrassing.”

Answering a question on Imran Khan’s comments about Pakistan’s nuclear assets at his power show in Peshawar on Wednesday night, the military spokesperson cautioned everyone to be careful when talking about nuclear assets.

“They aren’t associated to any one political leadership,” he said, adding Pakistan had one of the best systems and there was no such threat to them.

Gen Iftikhar also pointed out that there were rumours about the army chief’s extension. “Let me put this to rest. The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) is neither seeking extension nor will he accept it. He will be retiring on time on November 29 this year.”

“This is character assassination without evidence,” he remarked.

To another question on whether Khan had approached the military leadership to help him find a way out of the vote of no-confidence, the spokesperson said that it was “unfortunate” that the political leadership had been unwilling to talk amongst themselves. “So the army chief and ISI chief went to the PM’s office and discussed three scenarios with him,” he said, adding that one of the options was to allow the no-confidence motion to proceed. The other was that the prime minister resigns or the no-confidence motion is retracted and the assemblies are dissolved. The army chief took these options to the opposition, which said “no” to anything except proceeding with the vote, he clarified.

“No option was given from the establishment,” he said, suggesting that the Khan-led previous government had merely wished for the army chief to facilitate a dialogue with the opposition. On questions about a surge in propaganda against the armed forces on social media — primarily from supporters of the former ruling party — Maj Gen Iftikhar said it was intended to amplify existing fissures. “There do exist fissures and they get amplified like this. To pitch people’s political thoughts and misgivings with such speed, especially among the youth who may not be as well-informed, is unfortunate,” he said. “We need to insulate our society from all this on an institutional level and on an individual level,” he said, adding that it was tragic that the army had become a special target.

To a question about rumours of rifts within the military — with some groups favouring the ousted government — the spokesman said the army works on unity of command.

Putin and the American Far Right


 
 APRIL 15, 2022


“Only the dead have seen the end of war.”

– George Santayana, 1922

Russia methodically is destroying a neighboring independent democratic country and is accused of committing mass atrocities, war crimes that include evidence of executions of hundreds of civilians. Yet American far-right radicals applaud Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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At the same time, the Russians, defeated by stiff Ukrainian resistance in their unsuccessful siege of the capital of Kyiv, switched tactics and are massing armor, aircraft and thousands of infantry for an assault against the eastern Donbas region that has been occupied by pro-Kremlin forces. It borders Russia, which makes resupply easy.

The mayor of Mariupol, Vadym Boychenko, said there were more than 10,000 civilian dead in his besieged city after six weeks of Russian bombardments and assaults, their corpses “carpeted through the streets,” the Associated Press reported. The city is in the south, on the Sea of Azov.

This isn’t a war. This is a determined, calculated, purposeful slaughter of the Ukrainian people, an ungodly genocidal horror akin to a holocaust. And Putin apparently is not finished with inflicting brutality; it’s as if he has carte blanche.

President Joe Biden told it like it is Tuesday at an event in Iowa, accusing Putin of committing “genocide.” He said afterward he used that inflammatory description of the invasion “intentionally” because “it sure seems that way to me,” even if international lawyers may disagree.

“It’s become clearer and clearer that Putin is trying to wipe out the idea of being Ukrainian,” he said. “More evidence is coming out literally of the horrible things that the Russians have done in Ukraine.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky applauded that statement in a tweet: “True words of a true leader. Calling things by their names is essential to stand up to evil.”

The allied democracies surely would have ended this war weeks ago if Russia weren’t a major nuclear power. Possession of those doomsday weapons is what keeps Putin going.

Faced with the prospect of a powerful Russian invasion on open Donbas terrain instead of more easily defended urban areas, Zelensky pleaded with the allies in an interview on “60 Minutes” Sunday for more weapons.

“They have to supply weapons to Ukraine as if they were defending themselves and their own people,” he said. He often has repeated that Ukraine is battling Russia alone on behalf of all democracies, not only his own country.

“If they don’t speed up [the supply], it will be very hard for us to hold on against this [Russian] pressure,” Zelensky said in Ukrainian, the translation to English in subtitles.

His repeated appeals for allied aid is reminiscent of how Prime Minister Winston Churchill begged President Franklin Delano Roosevelt for weapons at the outset of the Battle of Britain early in World War II, when London stood alone against the Nazi onslaught of Europe. The 1930s Neutrality Act, a series of laws passed by an isolationist Congress, initially prevented FDR from helping the British, until amendments permitted the Lend Lease of ships for resupplying the island nation.

The Western coalition has rejected Zelensky’s repeated appeals for creating a no-fly zone over Ukraine and fighter planes to attack Russian warplanes, arguing that they could incite an unpredictable Putin to launch a wider war, possibly with tactical nuclear weapons.

“I think that today no one in this world can predict what Russia will do,” said Zelensky, possibly the most popular head of state on the planet. “If they invade further into our territory, they will definitely move closer and closer to Europe. They will only become stronger and less predictable­­.”

Ukraine is bordered on three sides by former Soviet satellites, most of them NATO members except Belarus and Moldova. The others are Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania.

The Biden administration announced Tuesday it was sending heavier weapons to Ukraine, including helicopters.

By siding with Putin and defending his self-defense motive for invading Ukraine, the radical right forged a new page in its get-Biden playbook. The right is trying to make him look weak, ineffective and indecisive in combatting Russia only with weapons such as anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles supplied by a surprisingly united U.S.-built coalition.

Putin has been concerned for years that Ukraine would join NATO, creating a Western military alliance on his dictatorial doorstep. But for every action there’s risk of an unintended reaction: Now Finland, which also borders Russia, and forever-neutral Sweden are considering joining NATO.

Right-wing radicals have lied their way into subverting the American narrative with barely disguised racism in the U.S. political arena, animosity aimed at books and learning and gay and transgender people in an unholy culture war against the country’s ideals, values and progressive hopes for a brighter future.

So, with the midterms coming up in November, why not stretch it to include the Russo-Ukraine war? More ammo to use against Biden.

The far-right American news site Infowars and others of its ilk repeated the Russian claim that Washington paid for bioweapons labs in Ukraine, The New York Times reported. Russia said it had documents backing up that claim, citing it as a reason for its “special military operation,” the paper said. Russia bars reference to its entry into Ukraine as an invasion.

And right-wing extremists defend Putin’s justification for the invasion, blaming America for the expansion of NATO into former Soviet countries after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. Putin views that as a threat to Russia even though Ukraine is not in the 30-member alliance, much as it would like to be.

Tucker Carlson of Goebbels LLC (a.k.a. Fox “News”), who presented autocratic-run Hungary in a documentary earlier this year as a conservative heaven, has been sympathetic to Putin’s arguments for the invasion of Ukraine. He has gone even further, fomenting a conspiracy theory that U.S. encouragement to get “Ukraine to join NATO was the key to inciting war with Russia.”

Then, as Aaron Blake of The Washington Post put it, Carlson twisted his theory that Washington wanted war with Russia by making it sound as if that idea was fact by asking, “Why in the world would the United States intentionally seek war with Russia? How could we possibly benefit from that war?”

This is how conservative conspiracy theories, regardless of facts, get launched.

Divisive Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia late last month defended Putin’s motives for invading Ukraine, the Financial Times reported.

“You see,” she told the Voice of Rural America, a conservative radio show, “Ukraine just kept poking the bear, and poking the bear, which is Russia, and Russia invaded. There is no win for Ukraine here. Russia is being successful in their invasion.”

No, it isn’t. Pure lies.

Another radical from the Trump wing of the GOP, Rep. Madison Cawthorn of North Carolina, called Zelensky a “thug” in a video that went viral, the Times said.

“Remember that the Ukrainian government is incredibly corrupt, and it is incredibly evil, and it has been pushing woke ideologies,” he said in the video. Being woke refers to someone who is conscious of racial discrimination, other forms of oppression and facts.

“Trump is primarily the leader in terms of those comments,” Olivia Troye, a former advisor to onetime Vice President Mike Pence, told the British newspaper. She now criticizes the previous administration.

Ours is a free country – still – with the right to speak what you believe without official retribution.

But it’s almost as if these Trumpist radicals were traitors as their leader, who is under investigation by government agencies and a congressional committee, characterized Putin as “savvy” and “smart” and ”genius” as the Russian leader amassed his forces to invade Ukraine in late February.

This from a former president of the United States, who has tucked himself under the wing of the world’s most powerful dictator, whom he no doubt envies for his ability to do what he wants without fearing the checks and balances of a democracy.

Imagine if Trump were in a second term now: No U.S. help for Ukraine in retaliation for Zelensky rejecting his request to find dirt on Biden; no U.S. help for NATO, which he dissed as president, charging that it was cheating the United States because it wasn’t paying enough for the common defense; and probable support for Putin because he accepted the Russian’s argument that Ukraine was not a separate country from Russia.

And this would-be America First dictator is considering running for a second term in 2024. If he does and wins, kiss goodbye to an already vulnerable American democracy.

 

Richard C. Gross, a correspondent, bureau chief and foreign editor of United Press International at home and abroad, retired as the opinion page editor of The Baltimore Sun.

How Movements can Maintain Their Radical Vision While Winning Practical Reforms


 
 APRIL 15, 2022

LONG READ

Ever since it launched its first audacious land occupations in the mid-1980s, in which groups of impoverished farmers took over unused estates in Southern Brazil and turned them in to cooperative farms, the Landless Workers Movement (known in Portuguese as the Movement dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem Terra, or MST) has stood as one of the most innovative and inspiring social movements in the world. By 2016 its estimated 1.5 million members had established 2,000 permanent settlements throughout Brazil, with some 350,000 families winning land by organizing for their rights. By the start of the pandemic, the movement also maintained more than 170 community health clinics and 66 food processing facilities, which quickly became vital centers of mutual aid, as the group began giving out huge quantities of food to people in need. 
In addition to using direct action to win land reform, the MST has pioneered a program of radical schooling for Brazilian youth and adults, especially those living in rural areas. As of 2018, the movement was operating in 2,000 schools — with thousands of MST-aligned teachers instructing upwards of 250,000 students. Remarkably, although state and local governments fund and administer many of these schools, the MST has been able to place its own teachers and implement a radical pedagogy. This includes study of agrarian reform and social justice movements, as well as the ideas behind agroecology — a model of sustainable agriculture that rejects corporate agribusiness.
For movements in the U.S. and beyond wondering how they can engage with the system without being co-opted, the MST offers a powerful example. Many social movement scholars believe that movements can institutionalize their wins over the long-term by having the state and mainstream political parties adopt their demands and programs. However, these scholars also contend that such institutionalization comes at a price: too often, as movement programs are incorporated into mainstream structures, grassroots forces become demobilized, dull their radical edge, and lose their ability to exercise disruptive power
 
Rebecca Tarlau, a professor of education at Penn State University, believes that it does not have to be this way. In her 2019 book “Occupying Schools, Occupying Land: How the Landless Workers’ Movement Transformed Brazilian Education,” Tarlau argues that the MST provides a model for how activists can use a strategy of “contentious co-governance” to win practical reforms from the state while also resisting cooptation. 
 
We recently spoke with Tarlau to discuss this strategy — as well as the wider lessons we can learn from the 40-year struggle of Brazil’s landless workers. Our conversation has been edited for length and clarity.

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In your book, you talk about “the long march through the institutions.” Can you explain this idea and how it applies to the MST?
A lot of people associate this idea with Antonio Gramsci, although it actually wasn’t a phrase that he used. The “long march through the institutions” comes from German activist Rudi Dutschke, who was referring to how students could potentially transform universities as institutions — and also the way that students could go on to transform other institutions after graduating.
The idea, which draws on Gramsci, is that when social movements engage with state structures, they’re not necessarily destined to be co-opted. Of course, that can happen. But if you have a collective movement, thinking through structures like schools and healthcare systems — as well non-state structures, such as unions and civil society organizations — is extremely important, because those are the institutions that people spend their daily lives in. We spend hundreds of hours in schools, in healthcare systems, in institutions that provide housing. So you can have a utopian vision, but if you’re going to affect everyday people, you also have to try to engage and transform these mainstream institutions.
So, implicit in the idea that activists should undertake a “long march through the institutions” is the notion that they might regularly try to avoid such engagement?
Yes. And that’s because the danger of cooptation is real. And also because engagement with the state is so often reduced to electoral politics. Especially in the United States, people get disillusioned with the idea that if you get someone elected, they’re going to make the change. And, first of all, that never happens, right? But also, this notion misunderstands power.
 
With the long march through the institutions, electoral politics is only one piece of the puzzle. I quote one of the leaders of the MST, João Pedro Stedile, who addressed a conference of MST teachers in 2015, just as Brazil’s President Dilma Rousseff was being kicked out of office by conservative legislators and right-wingers were mobilizing the streets. He said, “Some people think we can just take the presidential palace and then have power. But there is nowhere in Brazil with less power than the presidential palace!” Everyone laughed because Dilma was about to be impeached. And then he said that we need to understand power differently — we need to understand it like Gramsci, who says we need to contest power in all spaces of social life, whether that’s in the media or the schools or with the land. And the MST has been doing that for a very long time.
 
You describe the MST’s interactions with the state as a process of “contentious co-governance.” What does this term mean, and why does it matter?
I think this is key in not getting co-opted. We’re used to seeing institutional reforms at moments when social movements are really strong. And then the reform continues, and social movements die down.
One example of this in the United States in the educational sphere would be Black Studies and Ethnic Studies departments. These were born out of the Third World Liberation Front, out of the Chicano movement, and the Black liberation movement. So there was a really strong link between social movements and institutional reform. But as movements died down and the reform continued, you started to get a disconnect. I don’t want to be misunderstood: there are still amazing, radical faculty in those programs throughout the country. But the departments are no longer organically linked to a cohesive social movement that is thinking about these programs as part of a larger strategy of social and political change.
 
For me, the idea behind contentious co-governance is that you are not just implementing a reform, you are having a social movement enter an institution as part of a broader plan for social change. That involves a lot of contention. If that plan is to radically transform racial capitalist and hetero-patriarchal systems yet you’re using institutions that are within those systems, that’s going to cause conflict. Because you’re constantly pushing forward ideals that go against the ideals of that institution. I refer to this as “contentious co-governance.”
 
In this model, not only does contention continue because the social movement has to keep going into the streets and mobilizing in order to keep the reforms moving forward, but it’s also contentious because — if you’re doing things right — you’re even coming into conflict with your allies inside the institutions. 
A common view in social movement theory is that movements become less disruptive, less radical and arguably less effective as they institutionalize and their programs of change become incorporated into mainstream structures — and that this deradicalization is part of the price of being successful. But you take a different position. You argue that institutionalization is, in fact, a key part of the MST’s longevity — and furthermore, that the MST has been able to maintain a radical vision despite undertaking a march through state institutions. Can you say more about this dynamic?
 
I think the kind of process that scholars such as Frances Fox Piven and Richard Cloward document does happen. Social movements often get a win and then are demobilized. But I don’t think that is the only path possible when a movement is doing institutional reforms. In fact, for almost 40 years the MST has been able to maintain its long-term activism partially because it provides institutional services that everyday people need.
You see this in the schools. The MST programs were the only schools in some communities. If you were from a rural area and wanted to go to high school — which is not a radical goal, but a mainstream goal for anyone who wants social mobility — the MST could provide that for you. And then in this high school, you’re introduced to these really radical pedagogies that discuss how to read the world critically and understand the history of capitalism and agrarian reform. These programs force you to practice what it means to be part of a social movement, since the school systems are organized to be driven by small collectives of students. So you get transformed, and that plays back into the movement. You earn a degree that’s recognized by the state, but you’ve also spent four years in a transformational program.
 
Yes, a movement could do education through non-formalized courses. But not everyone has four years to give to a non-formal program, as compared to enrolling in a school that is recognized by the state. By using state institutions, you get a bigger chunk of society to have these radical experiences. And a lot of people stay in the movement. 
 
It is not uncommon to see movements providing social services. But what jumps out to me about the MST is that they’re getting these services to be funded by the state and yet keeping them radical. You open your book with a quote from a Brazilian activist, Antonio Munarim, who asks “How do we maintain this movement?” And his answer is, “Negotiating with the state without being absorbed.” What do you think are the central practices that have allowed the MST not to be absorbed, when other movements are? 
I quote another MST leader in the book named Erivan Hilário, who says “It’s only cooptation if you stop being connected to the movement.” I think one reason the MST has been able to do this is they keep people involved in the movement, even when those people are a part of the institutions. 
 
For example, if you go and become a teacher, or a doctor, or an agronomist, you’re still within MST, and you’re still accountable to a collective body. A lot of people are broadly associated with the MST because they have gotten land through the process of land occupation or live in an MST settlement — the number of 1.5 million members comes from that. But there are a smaller number of people, maybe 30,000 to 40,000 people around the country, who are involved at a much deeper level. These are people we would say are “organic” to the movement. They’re participating in the movement’s decision-making spaces.
 
In every settlement or camp, there is one or more “nucleus,” which might be 10 or 20 people who are involved in making collective decisions. Then there are regional and statewide and national decision-making bodies that sort of replicate this structure. There are also thematic bodies — if you’re part of the education sector, or the women’s sector, or now there’s an LGBT collective sector, you might be part of what’s called an instancia — literally, an “instance” of decision-making within the movement. People who are part of the movement are spending a lot of time in these collective bodies, so they’re held accountable.
 
There are other things, too. A lot of teachers or even agronomists who are MST leaders will be asked to give a part of their salary to sustain the movement. This is a huge debate in some of the circles: How much should teachers give? Should they give up half their salary? Teachers don’t make that much, so it’s a big deal that this gets decided in collective decision-making spaces. But if a person decides, you know, “I don’t want to give up a fourth of my salary,” they might leave and no longer be organic to the movement. But I would argue that they’ve still been influenced by the movement because they got their job through an MST degree program and they’ve gone through this collective process.
 
Apart from the money, just the investment of time involved here seems tremendous. To be working full-time as a teacher or a state agronomist, and then also going to all these meetings in the evenings — that’s a big commitment.
That’s why people leave. The MST has childcare at every meeting, so if you have a kid you can bring them. But it’s still really intense. I know a lot of folks that have husbands or wives who are not OK with having their partner spending so much time there. That usually breaks their relationship or breaks the person’s relationship with MST. It’s similar to the U.S.: It’s hard to be a full-time activist, right?
How is the MST able to have its programs funded by the state? Is it dependent on having a sympathetic political party in power?
A lot of people think that the MST and the Workers Party, or PT, are the same thing — or that they’re always supporting each other. But that’s not true. The MST has always had autonomy from political parties. Now, sometimes their efforts do get tied to the PT: Certainly when Lula took power in 2003, that was a moment of huge expansion for a lot of MST programs. So left-wing political power is important. 
But then there are locations, like in the northeast of Brazil, where there’s not really a progressive political party, and the movement has a different approach. In places where you have a weak state, where the state that doesn’t have much capacity to actually offer services to people, the MST has been able to step in. In a sense, they are helping the state. I spoke with some conservative mayors in these places, who would talk to me because I’m a U.S. academic. And I’d say, “These MST people are teaching your teachers about Marxism, and you’re part of the most conservative party in Brazil. Why are you OK with this?” And they’d say, “You know, our teachers need trainings. The MST is bringing in people from all over the country who have doctorates. They’re offering a type of training that we can’t otherwise offer. And our teachers like the trainings. So it’s good for us.”
Even though the state was funding something that might overthrow it eventually, in the short term it was very convenient to have the social movement doing these things. 
The state isn’t one thing. It is multifaceted, with various types of institutions at national, sub-national, and local levels. The MST is like water, trying to soak in wherever it can.
There’s a dynamic that’s inherent in Bayard Rustin’s famous phrase “from protest to politics” which suggests that social movements start on the outside but gradually move towards insider roles over time. You challenge this idea and argue that “both forms of political intervention can happen simultaneously over many decades.” 
I think outside pressure, negotiation, and co-governance inside institutions all have to go together. The MST is fighting for policies — around agriculture, education, health, transportation — that not only are expensive, but that involve investing in communities that aren’t usually invested in. And then this movement is very radical and explicitly Marxist. So there’s a lot of resistance. They constantly have to organize protests, both to get these policies implemented and to continue the policies afterwards.
 
I think there’s a lesson there: If there’s ever a moment where you’re not protesting, you’re either no longer fighting for something radical, or you are going to lose. Because if you’re fighting for something radical, there’s going to be resistance that has to be overcome.
Even when you win, you need protest to defend your institutional gains. In 2010, the MST was challenged by the judiciary in Brazil, which said that the movement could no longer partner with universities in their higher education programs. To get the programs back, the MST had to protest and mobilize — but they could draw on all the institutional power they had gained. When the MST first started its university program, no one would work with them. But they got one university to partner on the project, and then they just grew it and grew it. By 2010, the program had become so successful in serving a population of folks who never had university access, that even university presidents were supportive. When the courts tried to interfere, not only did you have progressive politicians and people in the streets protesting, you had 52 university presidents who said, “Stop trying to cut this program that we love and support.” When you put that alongside the protests, it sealed the deal. The MST got the programs back.
In your book you mention examples in which the MST acknowledges that there is tension between organizing disruptive mass protests, on the one hand, and trying to maintain their services and do inside-game politics on the other. And yet, their movement is able to manage these tensions. 
Absolutely. One example was with the MST’s first university program. The students boycotted a national exam that they were supposed to take. This basically messed up the entire program for the professors that supported them. For these professors, who had gone out on a limb for the program, the exam was really important for getting legitimacy. When the MST students boycotted, the professors were like, “never again.” The MST never did another program there. Luckily, other universities opened up. But this showed the tensions in play.
I interviewed some people about that situation. Upon reflection they said, “Yeah, that was our first program; we were so radical, we didn’t even let the professors be part of the program.” But in future iterations of these courses, faculty members became part of the collective that made the decisions. So the movement is always learning. It’s learning about when to pick a fight, when it’s worth it, and how to treat allies that may have their own interests. 
 
The MST is constantly trying to balance the inside game and the outside game. And tensions do come to a head. If you’re too close to the government, then maybe you’ll decide to get that extra money for your rice farm, and you won’t occupy that land that’s going to cause a big conflict. My point is, the MST realizes this is a tension. They’re constantly discussing it. At times, they’ve maybe made some wrong choices, but they’re doing the best they can to navigate these issues. At this point, the MST has been a movement for 40 years, and they’ve learned a lot. They learned that the kind of radical collectivism where everyone has to live in the same dormitory doesn’t work — that you’ve got to give people a little freedom from the collectivity. In terms of the state, they are constantly discussing the tensions involved. They’re always working to figure it out. 
 
To what extent do you think the MST’s example of contentious co-governance is relevant for people in other countries, particularly the United States?
We’ve talked a lot about movements providing services. I think the MST shows us that you can’t just provide a service, like the state or private actors would. It has to be a service where you’re prefiguring an alternative way of being. I embrace the term prefiguration: I love the idea of enacting the world we want to see in the current moment. I want to take the term back from a kind of anti-state ethos — that prefiguration is creating the world you want to see in Zuccotti Park [with Occupy Wall Street], or somewhere else outside of the confines of the state. I think you can be prefiguring an alternative world within state institutions. It’s hard. The institutions are never going to be perfect. But the challenge is for us to practice what that world should look like in those spaces.
 
This is what you call “co-governance prefiguration,” right?
Exactly. And there are examples in the United States. Crystal Sanders has a book about how civil rights activists in particular locations, like Mississippi, were able to take control of Head Start programs in the 1960s and turn them into radical movement schools. This is different from the Freedom Schools that are often cited and that were outside the state. This is actually occupying a space within formal educational offerings.
 
I think Black studies and Chicano studies departments are other great examples of social co-governance in the educational sphere. But again, the problem is that the social movements that won them died down. I think that some of the radical teacher unions right now are trying to do things: The Black Lives Matter school curriculum was created by an activist in Seattle, and then expanded by Philadelphia union activists. So there are examples.
What do you think are the biggest lessons the MST provides for avoiding cooptation?
I think in the United States we’re obsessed with the divide between people who engage in electoral politics and people who are against that strategy — a position that becomes anti-state. I think the problem is we don’t think about occupying other spheres of the state outside of electoral politics. State power exists in a lot of different spaces. And so we need to think about how we can solidify a movement and then find the spheres of state power in which we might be able to wield some control. I think the MST gets that from Gramsci, who they hold up as one of the movement’s pensadores, or intellectual heroes.
Have things changed for the MST since far-right President Jair Bolsonaro came to power in 2019? Has the movement stayed intact?
Bolsonaro has been awful for working-class people, and the extent to which he damaged the gains working people have made over decades and decades is just devastating. There’s also been more violence and evictions that I don’t want to minimize. But in the epilogue of my book, I also make the argument that even Bolsonaro is not the Brazilian state. He is the president. But he doesn’t control the multifaceted apparatus that is the state. Even as he has shut down a lot of programs, the MST is still embedded in the state and moving forward in different ways. 
The most important thing I would highlight with respect to the last couple years is the MST’s role during COVID. The MST has basically engaged its entire movement infrastructure to help people survive the pandemic. They’ve donated a ridiculous amount of food — like thousands of tons. Every single month, farmers from across the country just bring food together from the MST and give it to poor urban areas. We call it mutual aid; they call it solidarity. They also transformed a bunch of their schools into hospitals right after the pandemic started. And they have something like 15 urban cafes that they’ve opened up across the country over the past five years, which are now providing hundreds of free lunches every day. I’ve been studying the MST since 2009, and it is the most amazing thing I’ve ever observed.
We won’t know the long-term results of this for some time. They’ve gained a lot of allies, because the state was just not there. Even the private organizations were not there. But the MST was there, allowing people to survive. And you have poor folks in the urban cafes who will come and get a free lunch, and then the next day they’ll ask to volunteer. Then the MST will plug them into the system. Lots of people are being connected to the movement through this solidarity work. It’s just incredible.

Why should Arizona Desecrate Sacred Lands Just to Send Copper to China?


 
 APRIL 15, 2022

Arizona mining promoters often claim that the world faces a drastic copper shortage that will block the development of a clean energy economy needed to avert the worst impacts of climate change.

The only way to achieve a decarbonized future, they say, is for copper-rich Arizona to avert the supply crisis by developing another generation of so-called “sustainable” copper mines.

Their pitch then deploys an America First trope that other countries, like China, will fill the void without Arizona developing new copper mines.

But the truth is far different, and the copper barons know it.

There is no copper shortage

The copper cheerleaders now include Fred DuVal, who misleadingly states in his March 13 guest column that “the current – and projected – global copper supply is insufficient to power this transition to clean energy.”

DuVal then suggests a specific way to avert America’s dire copper shortage by constructing the proposed Resolution Mine east of Superior, repeating an unsupported industry assertion that Resolution “will produce up to 25% of America’s needs.”

Here are the facts.

First, the world is not facing a copper supply crisis, according to the leading industry source for copper market transparency. The International Copper Study Group World Copper Factbook for 2020 states:

“Since 1960, there has always been, on average, 38 years of reserves and significantly greater amounts of known resources. In addition, recycling, innovation, and mining exploration continue to contribute to the long‐term availability of copper … Despite increased demand for copper produced from ore in recent years, increases in reserves have grown, and there is more identified copper available to the world than at any other time in history.”

The U.S. Geological Survey’s 2022 copper production report states that the world produced 21 million metric tons of copper last year. A 2015 USGS survey determined the world has 2.1 billion metric tons of copper resources and estimated undiscovered copper resources of 3.5 billion tons.

The fact that copper is widely available and has low exposure to trade disruptions are two reasons why copper is not included in the USGS 2022 list of 50 mineral commodities critical to the U.S. economy and national security.

Resolution’s copper would likely go to China

Second, U.S. mines already produce more copper concentrate than can be domestically refined into useable metal. Last year, U.S. mines produced 1.2 million metric tons of raw copper. They exported 360,000 tons overseas, the bulk of which came from Arizona mines. The U.S. only has three copper smelters and they do not have sufficient capacity to process what’s already produced in the U.S.

DuVal asserts that the Resolution Mine will supply 25% of America’s copper needs. Resolution has stated it does not intend to build a new smelter to process its 500,000 tons of sulfide ore projected to be produced each year. So, where will Resolution’s copper be smelted?

China is the only logical place to smelt Resolution’s copper.

Resolution Copper Project is a joint venture of the two largest, foreign-based mining companies globally, Rio Tinto (55%) and BHP (45%). Aluminum Corporation of China is Rio Tinto’s single largest shareholder with 14.6% of the company’s stock.

By huge margins, China is the world’s leading importer of raw copper and is the world’s leading producer of refined copper. According to USGS, Chinese refiners produced 10 million metric tons of copper in 2021, 10 times the amount produced in the United States.

Why destroy a sacred site for that?

There is no legitimate reason to destroy and industrialize a vast area of Tonto National Forest and obliterate our most sacred religious site for copper controlled by foreign mining companies destined for export overseas, most likely to China.

Our tribe stands vehemently opposed to the Resolution Mine that would destroy irreplaceable sacred and cultural sites at Oak Flat on the Tonto National Forest 70 miles east of Phoenix. Oak Flat is the foundation of our traditional religious beliefs. It is on the National Register of Historic Places as a Traditional Cultural Property.

Our tribe has opposed Resolution for nearly 20 years.

During this period, we have gained a few insights into the hypocrisy of copper industry boosters. They intend to continue extracting raw American copper, desecrating our land and then shipping it overseas to be processed into useable products sold back to American consumers.

Those are the facts that DuVal ignores.

Terry Rambler is chairman of the San Carlos Apache Tribe.