UK

MPs demand publication of OBR advice to Kwarteng

Think tank dubs chancellor’s rejection of further pre-budget advice “inexplicable”

Photo: amer ghazzal/Alamy Live News


By Jim Dunton
30 Sep 2022
CIVIL SERVICE WORLD

Members of parliament’s influential Treasury Select Committee have called on embattled chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to publish an Office for Budget Responsibility outlook he was provided ahead of last week’s mini-budget.

Committee chair Mel Stride also said Kwarteng’s decision not to seek a further forecast from the OBR to be published alongside the £45bn package of tax cuts set out on 23 September had fuelled global financial markets’ lack of confidence in the UK government.

“Some have formed the unfortunate impression that the government may be seeking to avoid scrutiny, possibly on account of expecting the OBR forecast to be unsupportive of the achievement of the economic outcomes the government expects from the Growth Plan,” he said.

While the OBR had made preparations to provide forecasts to support the mini-budget, Kwarteng would have had to request the information and he did not.

However the OBR did provide the new chancellor with an initial baseline economic and fiscal forecast when he took office earlier this month, and Stride’s committee is demanding the immediate publication of that document.

In a letter to Kwarteng yesterday, Stride wrote: “As you know this forecast would have informed us as to how the outlook had changed since the last full OBR forecast (23 March) given the deteriorating economic conditions and policy interventions prior to your appointment. Please could you confirm that you will make public that forecast immediately?”

Stride also called on Kwarteng to bring forward his promised medium-term fiscal-policy statement, earmarked for November 23, to a date around the end of October or in very early November.

He said the OBR had confirmed it would be able to produce a full forecast by the end of October and a “meaningful” one beforehand. Stride said bringing forward the policy statement – which will explain how the government intends to make the mini-budget work – would aid market understanding.

“Given the continued uncertainty within markets, there would be a clear advantage to moving the MTFP statement and the release of the OBR forecast to as early a date as possible,” Stride said.

He added that the move would be particularly helpful to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee.

“The MPC will benefit from clarity around your fiscal plans and access to an independent OBR forecast before their key meeting on 3 November, when they will be taking a critical decision around the level of base rate which will in turn have significant implications for the economy and for millions of people and businesses across the UK,” he said.

There was some good news for Kwarteng today, however.

Revised data from the Office for National Statistics showed that the UK economy grew by 0.2% between April and June, against earlier figures suggesting it had contracted.

The change indicates that the economy is not in recession, as the Bank of England predicted earlier in the month.

IfG raises alarm over Truss and Kwarteng’s disregard for “usual processes”

The past seven days have been hugely volatile for the UK economy. Sterling exchange rates with the US dollar reach an all-time low and the Bank of England was forced to intervene to halt rapidly declining values of government bonds.

While ministers have been quick to blame the uncertain international context, not least ongoing fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Institute for Government deputy chief economist Thomas Pope said Kwarteng and Truss’ disregard for “usual processes” was a significant contributory factor.

He said Kwarteng and Truss had rushed into a fiscal event that did not need to take place for weeks and that the decision to sack Treasury perm sec Sir Tom Scholar in the first hours of the new government was likely linked to his “revealed or anticipated” opposition to their approach.

“This was a radical and extensive package of tax measures delivered less than three weeks into the prime minister’s term,” Pope wrote in an IfG blog.

“This is not enough time for such consequential policies to be stress-tested or for the chancellor to take on the advice of Treasury civil servants, who have a wealth of experience and expertise.

“A budget in late November would have afforded more time to adapt and improve policies while also placing them in the broader fiscal context.”

Pope said Truss and Kwarteng bore particular responsibility for the decision to terminally shut out Scholar’s insight.

“Rather than seek to seek understand the Treasury’s head civil servant’s view on the merits of the plan, or take on his advice for how to manage the policy, ministers’ approach was instead to remove the obstacle and assume that anyone espousing ‘Treasury orthodoxy’ would be of no help in their pursuit of a different economic agenda,” he said.

“By doing this and then moving so quickly, Truss and Kwarteng indicated their intention to sideline and undermine the Treasury and its advice rather than work with it.”

Pope said Kwarteng’s decision to reject the OBR’s offer of an updated economic and fiscal forecast was equally hard to understand.

“Inexplicably, he refused this offer, preferring to announce tax cuts free from the apparent strictures of needing to make the numbers add up,” he said.

Earlier today, Truss and Kwarteng met OBR chair Richard Hughes in an apparent bid to build bridges with the watchdog and reassure markets.

UK AUSTERITY

Government wants to cut ‘very large welfare state’, says Truss cabinet ally

Britons living in ‘fools’ paradise’ with state ‘extremely large’, says levelling up secretary

Adam Forrest

THE INDEPENDENT
6 hours ago

Liz Truss admits to 'disruption' caused by tax-slashing mini-Budget

Liz Truss’s government is considering ways to shrink the size of the welfare state, a key cabinet ally Simon Clarke has suggested.

The levelling up secretary said ministers were looking at how to make sure “extremely large” state is aligned to a low-tax economy, as economists and unions warn of major austerity cuts ahead.

Mr Clarke said Britons and others in western Europe were living in a “fools’ paradise” in which they enjoy a “very large welfare state” despite sluggish economic productivity.

“I think it is important that we look at a state which is extremely large, and look at how we can make sure that it is in full alignment with a lower tax economy,” the cabinet minister told The Times.

Mr Clarke said: “My big concern in politics is that western Europe is just living in a fool’s paradise whereby we can be ever less productive relative to our peers, and yet still enjoy a very large welfare state and persist in thinking that the two are somehow compatible over the medium to long term. They’re not.”

Signalling spending cuts, he added: “I do think it’s very hard to cut taxes if you don’t have the commensurate profile of spending and the supply side reform … We are privileged to deal with very large budgets. My experience is that there is always something you can do to trim the fat.”

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Pound – live: Truss admits ‘disruption’ in markets as S&P downgrades UK outlook

Liz Truss admits UK faces economic ‘disruption’ because of mini-Budget

Environment secretary’s own constituency has sewage dumped in rivers 11 hours a day

The government is on course to make public spending cuts of almost £50bn a year after the “unenforced error” of chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-Budget, according to the Resolution Foundation think tank.

Welsh secretary Robert Buckland signalled that major public spending cuts were on the way, as the government looks to reassure markets it can balance the books after a week of turmoil.

“We intend to be extremely rigorous when it comes to bearing down on public expenditure,” Mr Buckland told Sky News on Saturday – saying there would be announcements on spending in the weeks ahead.

The cabinet minister said the government wanted to reassure market to “will be seeking to balance the books in a sensible way” by making sure departmental spending is as “efficient and as lean as possible”.

It comes at the end of a chaotic week which saw the pound slump to an all-time low, the Bank of England forced to spend billions on government debt and Labour take an astonishing 33-point lead over the Tories.

Ms Truss has refused to commit to the annual uprating of benefits in line with inflation in April – something Rishi Sunak had promised to do when he was chancellor.

Pressed in her interview with broadcasters late on Friday, the prime minister said only that it was “something the work and pensions secretary [Chloe Smith] is looking at”.

Some Tory MPs have predicted that Ms Truss would struggle to push real-terms cuts to benefits through the Commons.

Robert Largan, Tory MP for High Peak, tweeted: “This is untenable. You cannot freeze benefits and pensions while cutting taxes for millionaires. A debt reduction plan needs to be both economically and politically sustainable to be credible.”

Some uneasy Tory rebels are also keen reverse Ms Truss’s axing of the 45p tax rate. Some backbenchers have to reportedly start talks with Labour about moves to vote it down in the Commons. “It is not all [the] usual suspects,” one figure involved told The Times.

The levelling up secretary also hinted that further radical plans for the economy announced by Mr Kwarteng in late November could include changes to the green belt.

“The fact the green belt is larger today than it was when Margaret Thatcher came to power is an extraordinary state of affairs,” said Mr Clarke.

The minister added: “We need to look at a planning system where we make sensible adjustments which don’t threaten communities and most fundamentally are about going with popular consent, and actually creating incentives that allow local areas to back growth.”

Recommended

Tory MPs ‘may help Labour to bring down’ parts of Chancellor’s budget

Lord Turnbull, former permanent secretary at the Treasury, accused the Ms Truss and Mr Kwarteng of undermining the Bank of England, the OBR and the Treasury.

“The government’s continuing refusal yesterday to fill the information gap indicates it has still not understood what lies behind the issue,” he wrote in The Times.

 UK

Largest lead we’ve recorded for Labour amidst mini-budget backlash

Polling conducted yesterday (29th September) of 1,329 UK adults found Labour with the largest lead over the Conservatives that Survation has recorded. Our poll found that Labour would win a 49% share of the vote, with Conservatives at 28%.

 

Significantly, voters who backed the Conservatives in the 2019 general election are moving to Labour. 26% of these voters who are not undecided are now saying they would now vote Labour. 

Liz Truss has dropped to a net favourability rating of -32% from -25% within her first month as Prime Minister, reaching levels of unpopularity seen by Boris Johnson at the lowest point of his premiership in July.

 

 

With the cost of the UK’s Sovereign Debt on the rise, causing severe disruption in the mortgage market, we asked people who they trust with the economy, with a choice between Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng, and Labour’s shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves. Reeves was the clear winner with 48% of people voicing their trust in her more than Kwarteng, at 23%.

 

 

 

Perhaps surprisingly, even those who currently intend to vote Conservative show some distrust of Kwarteng, with 9% saying they trust Labour’s shadow Chancellor more with the economy, 26% being undecided, and only 65% trusting Kwasi Kwarteng. 

 

When asked whether the mini budget held last week had made the UK’s economy better or worse, 65% of people asked said that they thought the economy was now worse off, versus only 11% who said the financial situation was worse off. 

 

Fallout from the mini-budget has brought the Government’s approval rating to new lows, surpassing low ratings seen over “partygate”:

 

 

 

 

 

With the energy crisis showing few signs of subsiding, Labour’s policy of creating a publicly owned clean energy company proved popular, with 62% of respondents to our poll supporting this.

 

 

 

Get The Data

 

Tables for these questions and more are available here. Online interviews of 1,329 adults in the UK were conducted on 29th September 2022. 

________________________________________

Survation. is an MRS company partner, a member of the British Polling Council and abides by their rules. To find out more about Survation’s services, and how you can conduct a telephone or online poll for your research needs, please visit our services page.

If you are interested in commissioning research or to learn more about Survation’s research capabilities, please contact John Gibb on 020 3818 9661 email researchteam@survation.com or visit our services page.

For press enquiries, please call 0203 818 9661 or email media@survation.com

BPC Statement: All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points.

UK

Tory Rebels Are Already Plotting, Less Than A Month Into Liz Truss's Government

Liz Truss outside Downing Street (alamy)

Adam Payne

After only weeks in office, the new Prime Minister is heading to Conservative party conference in Birmingham haunted by ominous opinion polls and irate Tory MPs.

It is hard to imagine even the most pessimistic reaches of Liz Truss's psyche envisaging that she could be heading to her first big gathering of the Tory party as Prime Minister in such dire circumstances.

After an extraordinary week that saw her plans for sweeping tax cuts trigger a dramatic fall in the pound, forcing the Bank of England to intervene to prevent even greater economic calamity, Truss is now facing down a Conservative backbench rebellion, and she hasn't even hit a month in the top job.

While the Prime Minister prepares for Birmingham, in Westminster Tory MPs – many of whom say they are staying well away from Conference – are starting to plot how they could unpick last week's 'mini-Budget', which has seen the Conservatives plummet in the opinion polls.

A jaw-dropping YouGov poll published on Thursday put the Tories 33 per cent behind Labour, the largest lead in decades, and a margin that would decimate the party if replicated in a general election.

 
Related

Several Top Tories Are Staying Away From Party Conference As Crisis Deepens
By Caitlin Doherty  30 Sep

Charles Walker, Tory MP for Broxbourne, yesterday told Times Radio that the question ahead of the next election was not whether the Tories could win it, but how much they would lose it by.

An ex-Downing Street official this week told PoliticsHome "it's over" already for the Truss regime, while a former minister said the new Prime Minister risks not just losing the next election, which is expected to take place in 2024, but "putting the Tories out of power for quite a long time”.

PoliticsHome understands that Conservative rebels have two core objectives.

Firstly, to force Truss and Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng to bring forward the fiscal policies they currently intend to announce on 23 November, as well as publish the Office for Budget Responsibility assessment of their plan to tax cuts through borrowing worth tens of billions of pounds.

This, argue senior Conservative MPs like Treasury Select Committee Chair Mel Stride, could go some way to reassuring financial markets after a tumultuous week.

On Friday, however, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor rejected calls to accelerate the publication of the OBR forecast, setting up a battle in the coming weeks.

MPs' second objective is to convince the Prime Minister to bin her pledge to scrap the 45 per cent tax rate.

While Truss and Kwarteng argue it will help kickstart growth by encouraging investment, dismayed Tories say it is a politically toxic move in a cost of living crisis, and one that inevitably diverted attention away from support being provided to help people with their energy bills.

"There was no reason to cut the 45 per cent at this stage and had they not done that there could have been more focus on the help for individuals," said one ex-minister. Conservative MPs Julian Smith and Robert Largan have publicly called for it to be binned, and privately many more agree.

The current thinking is that Conservative backbenchers opposed to the policy will seek to stop it in its tracks by opposing parts of the forthcoming Finance Bill.

But for now at least the government is showing no signs of changing course.

One Treasury source said that the Prime Minister and Chancellor were "nowhere near" the point of reversing their tax policy, despite the backbench uproar and catastrophic opinion polling.

PoliticsHome understands that the view inside government is that the markets overreacted to Kwarteng's fiscal statement and that the subsequent economic chaos will go down as a short-term blip.

That was the position set out by Conservative party chairman Jake Berry on Friday when he told The Times that people should "ignore the commentariat" and judge the Truss and Kwarteng 'Growth Plan' after it had been allowed time to deliver in a year's time.

"Economic markets both react and overreact in these situations, and how I will judge whether this has been a real success is when today or tomorrow people’s pay packets drop through the letterbox, and they see the fact that this government has cut their tax, putting money back into the pockets of hardworking families," said Berry.

"I think people will judge us on where the markets are not tomorrow, or the day after, [but] in six,12 or 18 months’ time.”

Meanwhile, the mood within the Tory party isn't much less fractious than it was in the dying days of the Johnson administration, despite No 10 having been overhauled by Truss's appointment as Prime Minister less than a month ago.

Those who backed Rishi Sunak in the contest to succeed Johnson complain that the Prime Minister has assembled a government of loyalists at the expense of more talented MPs, doing little to unite the party after a bitter leadership campaign.

“Liz Truss came in to office promising to respect that by building a broad based Cabinet on talent rather than loyalty," one backbench source said.

“She then did exactly the opposite and went even further, revelling in showing utter contempt for anyone who didn’t support her. A risky strategy when the majority of the parliamentary party didn’t want her in the first place."

One Sunak backer said the events of the last week proved that Truss was out of her depth. "She'd drown in a petri dish," they quipped.

Truss will take to the stage in Birmingham on Wednesday knowing that the stakes are high.

Be it winning over the general public, the markets, or a sizable chunk of the parliamentary Conservative party, the Prime Minister is already under pressure to change minds – and fast.

PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY
Swedish arms maker reveals plans for India
Post dateSeptember 30, 2022

Swedish Saab wants to increase production to meet growing demand for “anti-tank capability”

Swedish arms maker Saab will build a new facility in India to make a shoulder-fired anti-tank weapon, according to a company executive, who noted that the plant would serve New Delhi’s armed forces in addition to more than a dozen other nations.

The plans were revealed on Tuesday by Saab senior vice president Gorgen Johansson, who said the company would build a new factory at an unspecified location in India to produce its Carl-Gustaf M4 weapon system, hoping to begin operations sometime in 2024.

“It is a natural step to set up a Carl-Gustaf M4 production facility in India given the long and close relationship we have with the Indian Army as one of the primary users of the system.” he told reporters in New Delhi, adding that Saab would “contribute to the Government of India’s objective of developing a world-class defense industry.”

The factory will manufacture the versatile shaft-launched weapon not only for India’s military, but for customers in 15 other countries, Johansson Addedproverb “we haven’t done this in any other country.”

The new production facility will help to satisfy the growing demand for the weapon, which in the wake of the conflict in Ukraine “more countries will seek anti-tank capabilities going forward,” according to Johansson. Ukraine received at least 100 Carl Gustav M2 rockets and 2,000 rounds of 84mm ammunition from Canada alone, while the Pentagon sent an additional 2,000 compatible grenade ammunition from its inventory.

Carl Gustaf has been in service in India since its introduction in 1976 and has undergone several upgrades over the decades. The Saab boss said the new factory will only manufacture the latest M4 variant, while previous generations will continue to be manufactured by a partner local company, Advanced Weapons and Equipment India Limited (AWEIL). He offered few other details about the plans, saying the production site had not yet been selected.

The new investment was announced as New Delhi declared a target to increase arms production, with Defense Minister Rajnath Singh saying on Tuesday that the country had increased annual exports by about thirteen times over the past eight years, from 10 billion rupees ($122 million) to 130 billion ( 1.5 billion dollars). By 2025, he said, India hopes to push defense exports up to 350 billion rupees ($4.2 billion) and total output to 1.75 trillion ($21.3 billion).

Sweden resumes arms exports to Turkiye after NATO membership bid


Turkish Presidential Spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin (C-R) speaks during a press conference following NATO-hosted talks with Finland and Sweden in Brussels, Belgium on June 20, 2022. Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Sedat Onal (C-L) also attended. [Dursun Aydemir - Anadolu Agency]

September 30, 2022 

Sweden's Inspectorate of Strategic Products (ISP) said on Friday that it had reversed a ban against exporting military equipment to Turkiye, following the Nordic country's decision to join the NATO military alliance and agreement to overcome Turkish objections, Reuters reports.

Sweden and Finland sought membership to NATO earlier this year following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but faced a hurdle as its application needs the approval of all 30 current members, with Turkiye raising objections.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan had threatened to block their bids over Ankara's accusations that they supported the YPG in northern Syria, which it views as an extension of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) which is also deemed a terrorist group by the United States and European Union.

Sweden and Finland effectively banned arms exports to Turkiye in 2019 after its incursion into Syria against the Syrian Kurdish YPG militia, with ISP revoking existing permits and granting no new ones since then, though no formal embargo existed.

READ: Turkiye asks next Swedish government to take counter-terrorism steps needed for NATO membership

The three countries reached a breakthrough agreement on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Madrid in June, where Sweden and Finland agreed on a set of steps to be taken to address Turkiye's concerns about the candidacies.

The ISP said in a statement it began giving export permits during the third quarter, but did not reveal which companies or products had been given the go-ahead, citing confidentiality.

"Taking into account the altered defence and security policy conditions, ISP has after a full review decided to grant a permit for follow-up deliveries from Swedish defence industry to Turkiye," the authority said.

Turkiye, in May this year, said it had received positive signals with regards to a lifting of the embargo.

Nord Stream leaks leave Danish residents feeling vulnerable and unsettled

While many in Europe believe the damage to Nord Stream was deliberate, Ukraine has accused Russia of terrorism.

Siobhan Robbins
Europe correspondent 
Saturday 1 October 2022 


In the Baltic Sea, we're heading to a crime scene.

The site of suspected sabotage.

We're sailing towards the place where an alleged attack was carried out on Nord Stream; the biggest underwater gas pipelines running from Russia to Europe.

We left from the Danish island of Bornholm, the closest place to four leaks detected off the coasts of Denmark and Sweden this week.

Suddenly a familiar symbol appears on the boat's onboard map.

"A skull and crossbones, what does that mean?" I ask our captain, Kim Finne.

"That is the leak," he replies.

Ahead of us is an exclusion zone of around five miles.

Only the military and official investigators are allowed to get any closer to the leaking pipes as they try to protect the evidence and prove what happened and who is responsible.

Image:Kim Finne



It doesn't take long before we are warned off.

"You are heading towards a restricted area where navigation is prohibited," the Danish Navy tells us over the radio.

The discovery of leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines has sparked an international crisis.

All the damage is in international waters.

A few kilometres closer to Bornholm and the reported explosions would have been in Danish waters which could have provoked a NATO response if proven to be deliberate acts.

It's deeply unsettling for Kim who could smell the leaking gas from his home.

"Do you feel vulnerable living on Bornholm?" I ask him.



"Yes, because Bornholm used to be a really peaceful place and now we see warships, F16 [jets] and explosions so close to Denmark," he replies.

Many in Europe believe the damage to Nord Stream was deliberate.

Ukraine has accused Russia of terrorism.

On Friday, President Vladimir Putin directly accused "Anglo-Saxon" powers of blowing up the pipelines.

"It was a deliberate act of sabotage, and now the Russians are pumping out disinformation and lies. And we're at work with our allies to get to the bottom of exactly what, precisely what happened," countered President Joe Biden.

"Who do you think is responsible?" I ask Kim.

"I will not say I know who has done this but I would definitely say the Russian guy will try to hold Europe in a tighter hand now because they know it's going to be winter."

Bornholm's proximity to the leaks means chemical experts are monitoring the air to check it hasn't been poisoned.

So far, no dangerous levels have been detected.

But the ruptures in the Nord Stream system have led to what is likely the biggest single release of climate-damaging methane ever recorded according to the United Nations Environment Programme.

Campaigners say what's happened in the Baltic Sea is both a political crisis and an environmental disaster:

"Methane being such a potent and aggressive gas, this is something that really will be felt.

Read more:
UK energy firms reassess security of North Sea oil and gas rigs

What we know about the Nord Stream leaks and who was behind them

"Over a 20-year period this is something that is equivalent to the Danish emissions of C02 or what maybe 30 million cars in Europe would emit in one year," explains Mads Flarup Christensen from Greenpeace Nordic.

"It will contribute to the climate crisis that we are in the middle of and that is of course very, very serious."

The full implications of what has happened off Bornholm's coast are still playing out.

Further investigation should be possible once gas stops flowing from the pipelines.

But experts warn that even if evidence can be gathered to prove what caused the leaks and if they are the result of a deliberate attack, it's highly unlikely we will ever definitively know who ordered it.

At the UN, Russia, USA Trade barbs over the Nord Stream damage
Post date

October 1, 2022


The US and Russia traded barbs and accusations at a UN Security Council meeting on Friday over the apparent sabotage of a major gas pipeline that Russia uses to supply Europe.

Between September 26 and 29, explosions caused four leaks in the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines that run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea.

The United States, the European Union, NATO and Russia all agree that the damage and gas leaks point to sabotage, but they disagree on who is the likely perpetrator.

Russia asked the Security Council meeting to discuss the pipeline incident.

“It is absolutely clear to us that sabotage of such complexity and scale is beyond the power of ordinary terrorists,” Russian Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia said at the meeting. “We consider the actions to damage the gas pipelines to be deliberate sabotage against a crucial part of the Russian Federation’s energy infrastructure.”

He echoed Kremlin talking points, saying it could not have happened without the involvement of a state or state-controlled actors, and that Moscow would “certainly identify” the perpetrators.

“I hope, colleagues, that everyone in this room is aware of the dangerous brink to which those who committed this sabotage are leading us,” he said.

Assessing the debt

Nebenzia suggested that the United States had the most to gain from damaging the pipeline and directly asked his American counterpart if he could confirm that Washington was not involved.

“Let me be clear: the United States categorically denies any involvement in this incident, and we reject all claims to the contrary,” responded US envoy Richard Mills.

Mills accused Russia of using the Security Council as a platform to launch conspiracy theories and disinformation. He noted that since Russia invaded Ukraine seven months ago, it has repeatedly damaged and destroyed civilian infrastructure there.

“If there’s perhaps any country that has a track record of doing what we’re discussing here today, it’s not the United States,” Mills noted.

Some European officials and energy experts have suggested that Russia likely carried out the attacks to take advantage of higher energy prices and to create more economic chaos in Europe for its support of Ukraine to stave off Russia’s war. But other officials urged caution in assessing blame until investigators determine what happened.

The damage to the pipelines occurred off the shores of Sweden and Denmark. Ahead of Friday’s meeting, their ambassadors sent a joint letter to the President of the Security Council. They said at least two underwater detonations occurred on September 26, damaging pipelines on Nord Stream 1 and 2 and causing “large leaks” of natural gas several hundred meters wide.

The cause was likely two massive explosions, “probably equivalent to an explosive load of several hundred kilograms”, which were “the result of a deliberate act”. The explosions were so powerful, they said, that they measured 2.3 and 2.1 on the Richter scale, which is used to measure earthquakes.

They warned that the gas plumes pose a risk to both sea and air traffic and they issued a navigation warning to ships to keep a distance of at least 5 nautical miles, or 10 kilometers, from the leaks.

Danish, Swedish and German authorities are conducting a joint investigation. Russia’s ambassador said Moscow would only accept the results of an independent investigation that included Russian experts.

NATO

On Thursday, NATO pledged retaliation for attacks on critical infrastructure in its 30 member states.

“Any deliberate attack on Allies’ critical infrastructure would be met with a united and decisive response,” Nato ambassadors said in a statement.

The bloc said the four breaches of the Nord Stream pipelines were of “deep concern” and agreed that current information pointed to “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible acts of sabotage.”

Two of the leaks are on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, where gas flow was recently stopped, while the other two are on Nord Stream 2, which has never been opened.

Although not operational, both pipelines were filled with methane gas, which has escaped and is bubbling to the surface.

Ex-Polish FM thanks the US for the destruction of the Russian gas pipeline

NORD NEWS
Post date

September 30, 2022

Moscow has called the events a “terrorist attack”

While the United States, Russia and most European governments were reticent to judge who might be behind Monday’s explosion that damaged both Nord Stream pipelines and cut Germany off from Russian gas, former Polish minister and member of the European Parliament Radoslaw Sikorski had no such qualms.

“Thank you USA,” Sikorsky tweeted on Tuesday, along with a photo of the massive gas leak in the waters of the Baltic Sea. Both pipelines were severely damaged off the coast of the Danish island of Bornholm, in what many are now calling a deliberate act.

Sikorsky tweeted laterin Polish, that damage to Nord Stream means that Russia must “talk to the countries that control the Brotherhood and Yamal gas pipelines, Ukraine and Poland” if you want to continue supplying gas to Europe. “Good work,” he concluded.

Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 lost all pressure on Monday, after what Swedish and Danish authorities later said were a series of underwater explosions. The first pipeline was operating at reduced capacity after what Russia said were technical difficulties, while the second was fully pressurized but not operating, due to German refusal to certify it.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova wondered if Sikorsky’s tweet amounted to one “official statement that this was a terrorist attack.” Meanwhile, Moscow’s deputy UN ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, thanked Sikorski for “makes it crystal clear who is behind this terrorist-like targeting of civilian infrastructure!”

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki did not quite go as far as Sikorski, choosing to describe the Nord Stream incident as “an act of sabotage, related to the next stage of escalation of the situation in Ukraine.”

Not just any MP, Sikorski is a former British citizen and fellow at several US and NATO think tanks, as well as Poland’s former defense (2005-2007) and foreign minister (2007-2014). In October 2014, he was arrested manufactures a claim about Russian President Vladimir Putin who wanted to divide Ukraine with Warsaw, and was forced to back down.

Sikorski called Russia a “serial rapist” in January 2022 and in June told Ukraine’s Espreso TV that NATO had the right to give Kyiv nuclear weapons. He is married to the American expert Anne Applebaum, who is also one outspoken enemy of Russia.

While Sikorski thanked the US for the Nord Stream sabotage, Kyiv blamed Russia. President Vladimir Zelensky’s adviser Mikhail Podoliak called The “a terrorist attack planned by Russia and an act of aggression against the EU”, to argue that the best response would be to send German tanks to the Ukrainian army.

Swedish intelligence initiates Nord Stream’s sabotage inquiry

Post date

September 30, 2022


Sweden’s security service (SAPO) said on Wednesday it will investigate unexplained explosions and leaks on Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea, calling them “gross sabotage”.

SAPO took over the investigation from the police because “it could relate to a serious crime that could be at least partially targeted Swedish interests,” it said.

The intelligence service added “it could not be ruled out that a foreign power is behind it”.

In separate statements, SAPO and the Swedish Prosecutor’s Office said the investigation was currently focused on potential “gross sabotage”.

On Monday, leaks occurred in the Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea off the coast Danish the island of Bornholm.

Seismic institutes reported on Tuesday that they had recorded “in all probability” explosions in the area before the leaks were discovered.

Both Moscow and Washington denied on Wednesday that they were responsible for the suspected sabotage.

EU manager Ursula von der Leyen on Tuesday said “sabotage” caused the leaks. She threatened the “strongest possible response” to any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure.

The EU has not named a potential perpetrator or suggested a reason for the suspected sabotage.

“Any deliberate disruption of European energy infrastructure is completely unacceptable and will be met with a robust and united response,” said the EU’s foreign policy chief. Josep Borrell on Wednesday.

The UN Security Council will meet on Friday at the request of Russia to discuss the damage. The French UN mission, which holds the presidency of the 15-member council in September, said the meeting would address the Nord Stream pipelines that Russia and European partners spent billions of dollars building.

The Copenhagen police begin an investigation

The Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines have been at the center of geopolitical tensions in recent months as Russia cut gas supplies to Europe in suspected retaliation against Western sanctions following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

While the pipelines – are operated by a consortium majority-owned by Russian gas giants Gazprom – are not currently operational, they both still contain gas.

According to Danish authorities, the leaks will continue until the gas in the pipelines runs out, which is expected to happen on Sunday.

More than half of the gas in the damaged gas pipelines Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 has left the pipes, according to the head of the Danish Energy Authority, Kristoffer Böttzauw.

Danish police have also launched an investigation into the case and cooperated with police authorities in Sweden and Germany, Copenhagen police chief Anne Tonnes told a press conference.

The pipelines contained a total of 778 million cubic meters of natural gas, which corresponds to 32% of Denmark’s annual CO2-equivalent emissions, the Energy Agency states in a statement.

Germany says it must prepare for the “unthinkable” after gas leaks

Germany’s interior minister said on Wednesday the country must prepare for previously “unbelievable” threats to its energy security after dramatic pipeline leaks that the EU blamed on sabotage.

Nancy Faeser said Europe’s top economy would need to step up its vigilance to manage such risks in the wake of the damage to the Nord Stream 1 and 2 energy links between Germany and Russia.

“We have to adapt to scenarios that were previously unthinkable,” she said. “It requires strong security agencies with the necessary resources and powers.”

Faeser called for a quick investigation into the “probable act of sabotage” on the pipelines under the Baltic Sea near Denmark and Sweden so that “those responsible” can be identified.

“Protecting critical infrastructure is the highest priority,” she said, adding that Berlin had “for months” assumed there was an “abstract threat to the energy infrastructure” given its high profile in the wake of Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht said the “disturbing incident” underlined the importance of an ongoing “modernisation” of the German navy’s surveillance fleet in cooperation with partner states on the Baltic Sea.

Germany, which until recently was heavily dependent on Russian energy, will wait for a full investigation into the incident before drawing any conclusions, a government spokesman said on Wednesday.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP, AP and Reuters)

AI experts pan Tesla’s humanoid robot reveal: ‘next level cringeworthy’

By Tom Krisher And Matt O'brien 

 The Associated Press
Posted October 1, 2022 

An early prototype of Tesla Inc.’s proposed Optimus humanoid robot slowly and awkwardly walked onto a stage, turned, and waved to a cheering crowd at the company’s artificial intelligence event Friday.

But the basic tasks by the robot with exposed wires and electronics — as well as a later, next generation version that had to be carried onstage by three men — was a long way from CEO Elon Musk’s vision of a human-like robot that can change the world.

Musk told the crowd, many of whom might be hired by Tesla, that the robot can do much more than the audience saw Friday. He said it is also delicate and “we just didn’t want it to fall on its face.”

Musk suggested that the problem with flashy robot demonstrations is that the robots are “missing a brain” and don’t have the intelligence to navigate themselves, but he gave little evidence Friday that Optimus was any more intelligent than robots developed by other companies and researchers.

The demo didn’t impress AI researcher Filip Piekniewski, who tweeted it was “next level cringeworthy” and a “complete and utter scam.” He said it would be “good to test falling, as this thing will be falling a lot.”

“None of this is cutting edge,” tweeted robotics expert Cynthia Yeung. “Hire some PhDs and go to some robotics conferences Tesla.”

Yeung also questioned why Tesla opted for its robot to have a human-like hand with five fingers, noting “there’s a reason why” warehouse robots developed by startup firms use pinchers with two or three fingers or vacuum-based grippers.

Musk said that Friday night was the first time the early robot walked onstage without a tether. Tesla’s goal, he said, is to make an “extremely capable” robot in high volumes — possibly millions of them — at a cost that could be less than a car, that he guessed would be less than $20,000.

Tesla showed a video of the robot, which uses artificial intelligence that Tesla is testing in its “Full Self-Driving” vehicles, carrying boxes and placing a metal bar into what appeared to be a factory machine. But there was no live demonstration of the robot completing the tasks.

Employees told the crowd in Palo Alto, California, as well as those watching via livestream, that they have been working on Optimus for six to eight months. People can probably buy an Optimus “within three to five years,” Musk said.

Employees said Optimus robots would have four fingers and a thumb with a tendon-like system so they could have the dexterity of humans.

The robot is backed by giant artificial intelligence computers that track millions of video frames from “Full Self-Driving” autos. Similar computers would be used to teach tasks to the robots, they said.

Experts in the robotics field were skeptical that Tesla is anywhere near close to rolling out legions of human-like home robots that can do the “useful things” Musk wants them to do — say, make dinner, mow the lawn, keep watch on an aging grandmother.

“When you’re trying to develop a robot that is both affordable and useful, a humanoid kind of shape and size is not necessarily the best way,” said Tom Ryden, executive director of the nonprofit startup incubator Mass Robotics.

Tesla isn’t the first car company to experiment with humanoid robots.

Honda more than two decades ago unveiled Asimo, which resembled a life-size space suit and was shown in a carefully-orchestrated demonstration to be able to pour liquid into a cup. Hyundai also owns a collection of humanoid and animal-like robots through its 2021 acquisition of robotics firm Boston Dynamics. Ford has partnered with Oregon startup Agility Robotics, which makes robots with two legs and two arms that can walk and lift packages.

Ryden said carmakers’ research into humanoid robotics can potentially lead to machines that can walk, climb and get over obstacles, but impressive demos of the past haven’t led to an “actual use scenario” that lives up to the hype.

“There’s a lot of learning that they’re getting from understanding the way humanoids function,” he said. “But in terms of directly having a humanoid as a product, I’m not sure that that’s going to be coming out anytime soon.”

1:29 Robots help kitchen staff stay cool during Calgary heat wave – Aug 19, 2022

Critics also said years ago that Musk and Tesla wouldn’t be able to build a profitable new car company that used batteries for power rather than gasoline.

Tesla is testing “Full Self-Driving” vehicles on public roads, but they have to be monitored by selected owners who must be ready to intervene at all times. The company says it has about 160,000 vehicles equipped with the test software on the road today.

Critics have said the Teslas, which rely on cameras and powerful computers to drive by themselves, don’t have enough sensors to drive safely. Tesla’s less capable Autopilot driver-assist system, with the same camera sensors, is under investigation by U.S. safety regulators for braking for no reason and repeatedly running into emergency vehicles with flashing lights parked along freeways.

In 2019, Musk promised a fleet of autonomous robotaxis would be in use by the end of 2020. They are still being tested.