Bank of England Chief hints interest rate hikes to tame inflation

Investors think Bank may raise interest rates up to 3.25 per cent

Web Desk Updated: October 15, 2022 


Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey signalled on Saturday that they may consider hiking interest rates to fight inflation.

Bailey said that they may require a bigger interest rate to fight inflation pressures because of the government's energy subsidies for households and businesses, and its tax cut plans.

"We will not hesitate to raise interest rates to meet the inflation target," Reuters quoted Bailey saying at an event on the sidelines of International Monetary Fund Meetings in Washington. "As things stand today, my best guess is that inflationary pressures will require a stronger response than we perhaps thought in August." The BoE is due to announce its next decision on interest rates on November 3, Reuters reported.

Investors opine that BoE may increase interest rates from the current level of 2.25per cent to 3 per cent, or upto 3.25 per cent, both of which is considered to be bigger moves than usual.

The Governor said they would assess the impact of the government's energy subsidy scheme and Jeremy Hunt's budget statement on October 31. "The MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) will respond to all this news at its next meeting in just under three weeks from now," he said. "This is the correct sequence in my view. We will know the full scope of fiscal policy by then," the publication reported quoting Bailey.

UK bond crisis: Bank of England dragged into PM Liz Truss' fiscal mess

The Bank of England has expanded its emergency purchases of government bonds to calm financial markets riled by a government plan to cut taxes. As a crucial deadline looms, everyone is asking: will it work?

Are Liz Truss (center) and Kwasi Kwarteng (left) blowing up Britain's finances?

The British pound rose on Thursday in volatile trade as investors awaited the impending deadline for the Bank of England (BoE) to end an emergency bond-buying program.

A day earlier, the British currency fell to an almost two-week low but rebounded after the Financial Times reported that the BoE had signaled privately to lenders that it was prepared to extend its bond purchases beyond Friday's deadline, if market conditions demanded it.

Additional support for UK sovereign debt and sterling came following the news that Prime Minister Liz Truss is due to announce that she backing down from the package of tax cuts her government announced in late September. 

BoE wades into UK financial quagmire

The Bank of England decided earlier this week to expand its emergency purchases of UK government bonds — known as gilts — aimed at calming financial markets riled by the government plan to cut taxes without a clear plan of how they will be financed. 

The BoE doubled to £10 billion ($11 billion, €10.9 billion) the amount of bonds it is prepared to buy daily on the open market to stem rising borrowing costs.

Speaking in Washington this week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said it was up to the funds concerned to rebalance their holdings. "My message to the funds involved: you’ve got three days left now. You have got to get this done," he said.

The Bank of England is a symbol of the UK's 'exceptionalism' for many patriotic Brits

Bailey's statement was an attempt to draw a line in a rapidly hemorrhaging market, to make a show of strength. But the outcome is far from certain, as the government and the central bank seem to be pulling in opposite directions. As one trader put it, the situation is like a car being driven by two people — one with her foot on the accelerator, the other with his foot on the brake.

The BoE stepped in two weeks ago with a £65 billion bond-buying program to calm the market after Kwasi Kwarteng, who was dismissed from his post as Treasury chief on Friday, unveiled plans on September 23 for £45 billion worth of tax cuts and £60 billion in increased spending to help households and businesses survive increases in energy prices this winter.

Truss: Economic growth will cover tax cut gap 

Truss said in parliament on Wednesday that the government would not reduce spending, leaving many asking how it plans to finance its tax cuts. She said economic growth would cover the gap.

However, the UK economy shrank 0.3% in August month-on-month and economists told the government that growth is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

The government’s credibility is already on a rocky path. Charlie Bean, a former deputy governor at the central bank, told BBC Radio 4's Today program on Thursday, for example, that the turbulence felt by the markets was the result of "unfunded tax cuts and the looming prospect" of more in the medium term."

The BoE’s bond purchases worked initially, but the bank said on Monday that volatility on bond markets again posed a "material risk" to the UK's fiscal stability after government bond yields, which move inversely to prices, rose to levels last seen after the government announced plans for tax cuts late last month.

The sell-off hit index-linked bonds especially hard, with the yield on 30-year bonds rising over 5% — a level that had previously sounded the alarm bells because it means unsustainable borrowing costs for Britain.

Pension funds in the thick of it

Meanwhile, UK pension schemes are racing to raise hundreds of billions of pounds to shore up derivatives positions before the BoE's Friday deadline. Bond yields rose so far and so fast that the funds' risk insurance products were demanding huge amounts of cash, reportedly about £320 billion, forcing pension funds into a fire sale of bonds, which drove prices still lower and yields higher.

Just over 750,000 Britons aged over 55 who are still working and have defined contribution workplace and personal pensions may have already seen falls in the value of their pensions. Former pensions minister Steve Webb estimated that about half that number could have seen the value drop by at least £10,000 due to the recent turbulence.

Investors are concerned that the government's plans will also fuel inflation, already running at a near 40-year high of 9.9% in the UK. The BoE's target rate is 2%.

The problem is that, on one hand, the BoE is obliged to slow the economy by tightening monetary policy to tame inflation and is now simultaneously also forced to buy bonds to avoid a market collapse which is putting more cash into the system, thus increasing the need to raise interest rates even higher.

UK citizens have taken to the streets in anti-government protests 

caused by a massive cost-of-living crisis

Rising interest rates obviously feed into higher mortgage rates. The average two-year fixed mortgage rate in the UK has risen to 6.46%, from 6.07% last week, and 2.25% a year ago. 

Contagion is possible

The UK's financial turmoil is also creating contagion concerns. Britain's cost of borrowing on international money markets is above the rates paid by Greece and Italy. The five-year bond has risen to 4.6%, which compares with Italy's 4% and the 4.1% rate of interest paid by Greece. German five-year bonds currently yield around 2%.

The question is whether other central banks will be able to tighten monetary policy when government spending rises due to the cost-of-living and energy crisis.

Edited by: Uwe Hessler

This piece has been updated to reflect Kwasi Kwarteng's sacking as Treasury chief.

DW RECOMMENDS

UK finance minister cuts short US trip for emergency talks

Kwasi Kwarteng left an International Monetary Fund meeting amid concern about UK bond markets. Prime Minister Liz Truss is battling to save her job after five weeks in office.  

• Date 14.10.2022

New Chancellor Jeremy Hunt warns of tax rises and budget ‘squeezes’

Liz Truss's new Chancellor has signalled his plan to up-end the Prime Minister's entire econ strategy, in an extraordinary rebuke of the pledges that brought her into office.

By Dominic McGrath/PA

Jeremy Hunt, widely seen now as the most powerful figure in Government, used a series of broadcast interviews on Saturday morning to signal that Ms Truss's immediate economic plan is now defunct as he suggested that tax rises could form part of a painful fiscal package designed to restore market confidence in the UK.

Mr Hunt, a former foreign secretary, was parachuted into Number 11 to replace Kwasi Kwarteng in a bid to restore order to Ms Truss's ailing administration.

In his first full day in office, he warned of "difficult decisions" to come as he suggested that taxes could rise and budgets - including on health and defence - would likely be squeezed further in the coming months.

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt at 10 Downing Street

 (Photo by Leon Neal/Getty Images)

Ms Truss on Friday sacked her friend and chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng and ditched her commitment to drop the planned rise in corporation tax from 19% to 25%, after three weeks of turmoil on the financial markets in the wake of Mr Kwarteng's £43 billion mini-budget tax giveaway.

Mr Hunt, twice a Tory leadership contender, wasted no time in criticising the mini-budget but endorsed the "fundamentals" of the push for growth.

He told Sky News: "It was a mistake when we're going to be asking for difficult decisions across the board on tax and spending to cut the rate of tax paid by the very wealthiest.

"It was a mistake to fly blind and to do these forecasts without giving people the confidence of the Office of Budget Responsibility saying that the sums add up. The Prime Minister has recognised that, that's why I'm here."

Allies of Mr Hunt had likened his new role to that of the "chief executive" in Government and on Saturday Mr Hunt acknowledged that the prime minister had effectively relinquished control of the public finances over to him.

The Chancellor, who will meet with Treasury officials later and with Ms Truss at Chequers on Sunday, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme he now had a "clean slate" on the mini-budget, as he prepares to deliver a highly anticipated fiscal statement on October 31.

"I'm leaving open all possibilities this morning," he said. "Nonetheless, his comments indicated that cuts to public spending and tax rises could be coming.

"Spending will not rise by as much as people would like and all Government departments are going to have to find more efficiencies than they were planning to."

"And some taxes will not be cut as quickly as people want. Some taxes will go up. So it's going to be difficult."

Appearing to rule out an early election, Mr Hunt repeatedly insisted that voters now wanted stability and in 18 months' time would be able to "judge" Ms Truss at the ballot box.

But Mr Hunt's comments may only add to the sense among some Tory MPs that Ms Truss is increasingly powerless in Downing Street, with her party split about its next steps.

Jeremy Hunt admits government made mistakes and says some taxes will rise

Jeremy Hunt, who replaced sacked Kwasi Kwarteng as Chancellor, said in his first interview in the role "mistakes had been made"

By Kelly Ashmore

15 OCT 2022

The new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has admitted 'mistakes were made' over the mini budget in his first interview since taking on his new job. The former leadership candidate replaced Kwasi Kwarteng in Number 11 on Friday, October 14, on another day of turmoil.

Speaking to Sky News on Saturday morning as he started his first full day in the new role, Mr Hunt admitted errors had been made and warned “difficult decisions” lay ahead.

He said: “There were mistakes. It was a mistake when we’re going to be asking for difficult decisions across the board on tax and spending to cut the rate of tax paid by the very wealthiest.

“It was a mistake to fly blind and to do these forecasts without giving people the confidence of the Office of Budget Responsibility saying that the sums add up.

“The Prime Minister’s recognised that, that’s why I’m here.” Mr Hunt was parachuted into the role yesterday after PM Liz Truss fired Kwasi Kwarteng just 38 days after he was appointed as Chancellor.

The ex-health secretary added: "I want to do the right thing for British people. “It’s a big honour to do the job that I’ve been asked to do by the Prime Minister but I want to be honest with people: we have some very difficult decisions ahead.

Prime Minister Liz Truss delivering her keynote speech during the Conservative Party annual conference at the International Convention Centre in Birmingham. Ms Truss has refused to commit to increasing benefits in line with inflation. (Image: PA)

“The last few weeks have been very tough but the context of course is coming out of a pandemic and a cost-of-living crisis. And the thing that people want, markets want, the country needs now, is stability. No Chancellor can control the markets.


“But what I can do is show that we can pay for our tax and spending plans and that is going to need some very difficult decisions on both spending and tax.”

However, the new chancellor declined to give any specifics ahead of the fiscal statement due on October 31.

He added: "The fundamental strategy behind it all, which is that we have to solve the growth paradox if we want well-funded public services like the NHS and to keep taxes low and falling, then we have to increase our growth rate. That is absolutely right and I also would like to be able to cut corporation tax.

“I’m not going to make any specific commitments about specific departments now, or indeed on the tax side about specific taxes because we have to look at these things in the round.

"We have to make sure as we take these very difficult decisions, we’re honest with people about the situation we face.”

Tory donors turn on Liz Truss even as Jeremy Hunt rips up disastrous mini-Budget

‘Time is running out’ to remove the prime minister, says top Conservative donor. ‘The more we dig this hole the deeper it is going to be’

Kate Devlin
Whitehall Editor

Conservative donors and business leaders are turning on Liz Truss even after the new chancellor ditched many of her key policies in a bid to save the government.

In his first full day in post, Jeremy Hunt admited there would be tax rises and spending cuts ahead as he urged Tory MPs not to oust her.

He also refused to say if he would keep Ms Truss’s flagship pledges to cut the basic rate of income tax and increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP.

Despite his bid to calm nerves, one of the Conservative Party’s most generous donors, John Griffin, said the prime minister was “out of her depth” and called for her to be replaced.

Lord Rose, the Tory peer and chairman of the Asda supermarket chain, described her as a “busted flush” and said the current situation was unsustainable.

Another major donor, Alexander Temerko, did not call for Ms Truss to go, but said: “I hope that the sense of self-preservation will force the government to cooperate with business to pursue a coordinated, socially responsible economic policy.”

In a highly unusual show of strength, which in turn highlighted the prime minister’s weakness, Mr Hunt admitted the government’s disastrous mini-Budget, which spooked the markets and saw the pound fall to its lowest level in 37 years, “went too far, too fast”.

He said the planned tax cut for the wealthiest and a decision not to publish Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) calculations has been a mistake, and promised a clean slate.

In comments that infuriated parts of the Tory right, Mr Hunt said “some taxes will go up” as he works to balance the Treasury books.

Reports on Saturday night suggested the chancellor was set to delay Kwasi Kwarteng’s promise to reduce the basic rate of income tax by a year.

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey has warned that inflationary pressures could mean a higher-than-expected hike in interest rates soon.

Mr Hunt denied Britain was returning to an era of austerity but admitted “difficult” decisions would have to be made on spending, refusing to commit to raising benefits in line with inflation and signalling that the NHS would not be immune from the squeeze.

On the prime minister’s future, Mr Hunt insisted she had “listened” and warned against removing her from office, saying “I think the last thing people want now is more political instability”.

But Mr Griffin, founder of the Addison Lee taxi firm and who has given £4m to the Tories since 2013, said that the chaotic scenes on Friday, when Ms Truss sacked her first chancellor and announced a major U-turn on corporation tax, showed she was “out of her depth”.

He compared Ms Truss to Theresa May, ousted by the party in 2019, and said: “We are back in the same mode now. And in the end people are going to see sense. Time is running out. The more we dig this hole the deeper it is going to be. We need to all sit down now – senior members of society from all parties – to look at this. This is a moment in history and we have to really do what is right.”

Mr Griffin, who was highly critical of Boris Johnson over Partygate, also suggested that the former prime minister was the best person to replace Ms Truss. “It would be nice if there was someone else in prospect,” he said, “but we have to look closely at where our best chances lie.”

Lord Rose, the former boss of Marks & Spencer, who sits in the House of Lords as a Conservative peer, suggested Mr Hunt’s efforts were in vain because the “current situation is completely untenable and cannot be sustained”.

“In my view the prime minister is now a busted flush,” he told the BBC’s Today programme.

Tory MPs agreed that Mr Hunt’s intervention was not enough to save Ms Truss. “She can’t lead us into the next election, everyone knows that – it is just whether she goes in the short term or the long term,” said one.

Senior Tories were said to be plotting to swiftly oust the prime minister, with some reported to want defence secretary Ben Wallace to replace her in Downing Street.

There were reports on Mr Hunt is due to meet Ms Truss on Sunday at Chequers.

But his plans almost immediately prompted a backlash from Thatcherite Tory MP John Redwood, who tweeted: “You cannot tax your way to higher growth. If you tax too much you end up borrowing more as you have a worse slowdown.”

A government source said: “The PM is committed to delivering the higher growth, better-paid jobs and greater opportunities the country needs and deserves.”

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OUTSOURCING

Why Phoenix leaders want to add private security to city parks

Stark compared private security at parks to security at shopping centers. “It’s important to note the security is not armed,” she said.“I know people are concerned that we may be criminalizing people experiencing homelessness."

By Christina Estes

Published: Thursday, October 13, 2022 - 

Christina Estes/KJZZ

A child playing at Homestead Park in Phoenix in 2021.

A movement is underway to expand private security officers to Phoenix city parks. 

“I really am concerned,” Councilwoman Debra Stark told KJZZ News after Wednesday's city council meeting.

She, along with Councilwoman Ann O’Brien, Councilman Jim Waring and Councilman Sal DiCiccio, requested the City Council approve $400,000 to add unarmed security officers to 8 parks with the highest calls for trespassing and violating rules based on ranger logs between June and August. The parks are: Cortez, Washington, Pierce, Cielito, El Oso, Perry, Desert West and Maryvale.

Stark said she often hears residents complain about public drug use. Last week, she said, officers patrolling Cortez Park were flagged down by people reporting a possible body in the lake at Cortez Park. The department's dive team recovered the body of an adult male with no obvious signs of trauma. 

Stark compared private security at parks to security at shopping centers. “It’s important to note the security is not armed,” she said. "So they’re just there as a visual presence to let people know we’re here, we’re patrolling, we’re making sure everyone’s safe.”

She said the city has been using private security at three downtown parks — Civic Space, Margaret T. Hance and Heritage Square Parks —  for at least a couple years with no problems or pushback. But after some council members questioned the idea, the issue was tabled until next month.

“If various council districts don’t want to have the security, I’ll be happy to take it,” Stark said. “I can list a number of parks in need of security.”

Phoenix has many openings for police officers and park rangers, who provide daily education and enforce park rules and city ordinances. Rangers work with police and behavioral health specialists as part of the city’s efforts to offer services to people who are unhoused. 

“I know people are concerned that we may be criminalizing people experiencing homelessness. 

This is not about that, it’s not about that, and I’m sorry if people think that,” Stark said. “This is really making sure people feel secure when they go to their park.”

The city has 185 urban parks, which do not include numerous parks in mountain preserves.

More stories from KJZZ

Saudi Arabia Announces $400 Million Humanitarian Aid for Ukraine

OCTOBER 15, 2022 

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman speaks during the Gulf Cooperation Council’s (GCC) 41st Summit in Al-Ula, Saudi Arabia January 5, 2021. 

Photo: Bandar Algaloud/Courtesy of Saudi Royal Court/Handout via REUTERS

i24 News – Saudi Arabia on Saturday announced $400 million in humanitarian aid for Ukraine, the official SPA news agency said, adding that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had made a phone call to President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The prince emphasized “the Kingdom’s position of supporting everything that will contribute to de-escalation, and the Kingdom’s readiness to continue the efforts of mediation,” SPA reported.

Saudi Arabia last month played an unexpected role in facilitating a prisoner-of-war swap between Moscow and Kyiv.

However, the war in Ukraine fueled tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United States after the kingdom largely resisted pressure to ramp up oil production to ease the energy crisis resulting from the conflict.

The kingdom has come under growing criticism from Washington after the Saudi-led OPEC group of oil exporters agreed on a drastic production cut with Russia and other allies, which could send energy prices soaring even higher.

Washington accused OPEC+ of aligning itself with Moscow, and on Wednesday, President Joe Biden threatened “consequences” for Saudi Arabia.

Fact Check: Did Trump Admin Sell Largest U.S. Oil Refinery to Saudi Arabia?

BY TOM NORTON 

NEWSWEEK

ON 10/13/22 

The U.S.' troubled and complex history with the Saudi government has continued to cause anguish for the Biden Administration, particularly in light of energy shortages and the conflict in Ukraine.

President Joe Biden has recently warned of "consequences" for Riyadh after Saudi Aramco's decision to cut oil production as part of an OPEC+ agreement with Russia.

With America's energy independence on the line, some now claim that former president Donald Trump traded one of the country's largest energy assets to a nation facing accusations of cozying up to Russia's President Vladimir Putin.

Claims on Twitter suggest that Donald Trump and Texas governor Greg Abbott were involved in the sale of the U.S. largest oil refinery to a Saudi state-owned firm. Pictured here, Trump shakes hands with Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the Oval Office of the White House on March 20, 2018 in Washington, D.C.MANDEL NGAN/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES/GETTY


The Claim

A tweet posted on October 10, 2022, questioned why Saudi Arabia "bought 100% of Port Arthur in Texas...America's largest oil refinery...completed in 2017 (during Trump's Administration)."

Another tweet, posted on October 8, 2022, asked more bluntly: "Why did the Trump admin and Texas Gov Abbott sell the largest US oil refinery to Saudi Arabia in 2020...?"

The Facts

While there are connections linking Trump, Greg Abbott, and Saudi oil, the buyout of the Port Arthur oil refinery does not appear to have had significant oversight from either the former president or the Texas governor.

It's true that Trump met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman during his presidency, a move which arguably signaled that the U.S. was ready to develop political and financial ties with the Middle Eastern energy powerhouse.

This became more problematic after the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi. More recent revelations about Trump's possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago led many to recall how the former president approved the transfer of nuclear technology to Saudi Arabia as well, though the link is tenuous and speculative.

In 2018, Abbot was expected to meet with Salman, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih, and Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Amin Nasser to discuss the potential expansion into shale field refinery.

However, the Port Arthur deal was part of an agreement that precedes the Trump administration, going back to the time when state-owned Saudi Aramco and Royal Dutch Shell split assets of a joint U.S. business venture that included the Texas oil refinery.

In 2016, the two firms said they planned to divide the assets of Motiva Enterprises, a U.S. venture formed in 1998, which included the Port Arthur refinery.

Known as the Motiva Refinery, it is the largest oil refinery in North America.

In the split, Saudi Aramco took full ownership of Port Arthur, Texas, while Shell took ownership of refineries in Norco and Convent, Louisiana.

This asset division was completed a few months into the start of the Trump Administration.

Then in 2019, Saudi Aramco bought out Shell's 50 percent share of the oil refinery for $631 million.

While it took place during Trump and Abbott's time in their respective offices, it's not clear what either of their administrations would have had to do with this handover.

The Trump Administration did intervene in the import and distribution of oil in the U.S. elsewhere, when it imposed sanctions on Venezuelan firm PDVSA in 2019. It expanded these sanctions in 2021 to others who had later helped PDVSA sell crude oil to Asia.

In a case that arguably has some parallels with Port Arthur, the U.S. Treasury under Trump blocked Venezuela's creditors from seizing the U.S.-based Citgo refinery to collect on PDVSA, the state oil company, debt.

However, this policy was largely an effort to punish the government of Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro, whom the U.S. did not recognize as the country's legitimate leader at the time.

"The United States is holding accountable those responsible for Venezuela's tragic decline, and will continue to use the full suite of its diplomatic and economic tools to support Interim President Juan Guaidó, the National Assembly, and the Venezuelan people's efforts to restore their democracy," said then Secretary of the Treasury Steven T. Mnuchin in January 2019.

So, while there is scope for government intervention in the export, import, and distribution of oil in the U.S., there is no obligation for state or federal government to block the sale or involve itself in the break-up of assets among two companies that hereto shared stakes in a private business venture.


In any case, though the administration's growing ties with the Kingdom (given the influence that Riyadh wields in OPEC+ policy) may in retrospect provide cause for concern, there simply isn't sufficient evidence to show that the Trump Administration or Greg Abbott had any executive or final oversight on the sale of Port Arthur to Saudi Aramco.

Newsweek has contacted Trump, Saudi Aramco, Shell, and Abbott for comment.

PERMANENT ARMS ECONOMY

A peek at the future of US-Taiwan defense industrial cooperation

BY MARK STOKES, COLBY FERLAND AND ERIC LEE, OPINION CONTRIBUTORS - 10/13/22 

Taiwan Presidential Office via AP
In this photo released by the Taiwan Presidential Office, President Tsai Ing-wen visits Taiwanese soldiers near the sign for Hualien Defense in eastern Taiwan on Sept. 6, 2022. She said China is conducting “cognitive warfare” by spreading misinformation in addition to its regular incursions into nearby waters and airspace intended at intimidating the self-governing island.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) poses significant challenges to the United States, Taiwan and other like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has embarked on an ambitious reform and reorganization program — with one result being a defense research, development and acquisition (RD&A) system that encourages synergy between and within military, defense industrial and academic communities. With heavy emphasis on informatization and a microelectronics-heavy supply chain, China is able to move from concept to fielded capability at an unprecedented rate. The main strategic direction of PLA force development is Taiwan — and, by extension, the United States.

Facing a shared threat, the United States and Taiwan should strengthen joint efforts in defense industrial cooperation.

As part of a broader competitive strategy, the United States and Taiwan should develop innovative and asymmetric options meant to align resources in a complex political, economic and military environment. Support for asymmetric approaches to Taiwan’s defense acquisition and posture appear to be gaining favor in U.S. policy. Against the backdrop of an increasingly aggressive Beijing, the subsequent increased focus on Taiwan’s defense has created a golden opportunity to advance U.S. interests, deepen and broaden the bilateral relationship with Taiwan, and address structural problems in confronting shared challenges.

The United States and Taiwan share common interests in a more proactive approach to competition with China. Recognizing in part that a viable domestic defense industry can help create conditions for greater popular support for sustained high levels of defense spending, armaments cooperation is central to bilateral relationships between the United States and Japan, India, and NATO. Provision of defense articles and services through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) program — arms sales — are central in U.S.-Taiwan relations.

China’s failure to meet its own obligations under the 1982 Joint Communiqué countermands any U.S. responsibility to reduce arms sales to Taiwan. Since 1982, there has been significant defense industrial cooperation between the United States and Taiwan, but without any senior policy body. This has resulted in inconsistent and significant fluctuations in success of industrial cooperation programs, such as GE Aviation’s thriving joint venture with Evergreen Aviation Technologies compared to Lockheed Martin’s cooperation with AIDC on the stalled F-16 Maintenance Center.

The structure for U.S.-Taiwan defense relations should be adjusted. Like Japan, Taiwan has low political support for increased defense spending; thus, there exists a natural linkage between defense investments and economic growth. With caps on deficit spending, increases in defense budgets compete with economic infrastructure, social programs, research and development, and more.

In Taiwan, political pressure to target economic sectors more relatable to the public’s day-to-day life has limited defense-related resources and caused competition in funding allocation between production and acquisition, and life-cycle sustainment. The latter, having a clear impact on equipment availability rates, directly translates shortfalls in defense spending to issues of defense readiness.

The United States and Taiwan should establish a senior-level defense industrial supply chain (DISC) policy coordination body. DISC would translate popular support, and the will to fight, in Taiwan into requisite defense spending, and increase Taiwan’s operational readiness.

Defense industrial cooperation is a complex issue. Establishment of DISC specifically targets this challenge by mobilizing and giving direction to hundreds of millions of dollars on offer from Taiwan during each FMS transaction, as high as 10-12 percent of the contract value. These funds are referred to as industrial cooperation requirements, or “offsets,” and exist as a Taiwan policy requirement for U.S. defense contractors. Over the next decade, about $1 billion in resources are in jeopardy of being waived or delayed due to an inability to transparently build them into the initial contract agreements because there is no senior-level communication on how best to use them.

This is especially critical at a time when Taiwan’s policies for offsets are undergoing significant reform. During this period of flux, DISC would serve as a critical channel of communication and problem solving between relevant parties in the defense industrial cooperation ecosystem. Offsets are but one form of industrial cooperation, and DISC is structured as a helpful third-party to both Taiwan and the United States, as the same stakeholders and processes apply to all forms of cooperation. At its core, establishment of DISC would better serve Taiwan’s military readiness, potentially saving American blood and treasure in the event of a crisis.

Moreover, the U.S. military increasingly relies on sophisticated weapon systems that are underwritten by advanced microelectronics. Taiwan provides the steel in the spine for the U.S. defense industrial complex. As the U.S. military depends on U.S. commercial technology firms, who in turn depend on Taiwanese chip manufacturing, there is a growing need to more closely coordinate and integrate U.S. and Taiwan defense and technology sectors.

Many in Taiwan may remain on the fence in seeing where their future lies, including within Taiwan’s military. Near and long-term solutions to the PLA threat must be simultaneously expanded. Solely focusing on the near-term challenge of a possible PLA invasion of Taiwan puts aside any long-term thinking. Much of Taiwan’s defense community does not see hope in defending against an invasion without clearly defined U.S. military support. In Taiwan, buy-in from the local defense industry and key stakeholders is critical for a motivated defense effort. In the United States, a conscious effort should be made to find an area for partnership.

A senior-level U.S.-Taiwan DISC forum would seek to advance these goals:Identify Chinese defense trends to identify single points of failure, keep pace with common challenges, and maintain a qualitative military edge in key areas;
Enhance Taiwan’s operational readiness by identifying cooperative opportunities targeted to increasing equipment availability, sustainability, and the relevant human capital skills;
Provide policy guidance for a War Reserve Stocks for Allies (WRSA) program in Taiwan;
Promote cooperative research, development, testing and evaluation of defense technologies, systems or equipment;
Examine opportunities for joint production, sustainment and follow-on development of defense articles; and
Provide a forum for procurement of Taiwan’s technology, equipment, systems, or logistics support solutions that uniquely meet U.S. needs.I advocated full legalization; I was wrongOpportunities for Biden and Congress to combat the overdose crisis right now

Taiwan would benefit from establishing a mechanism for identifying and coordinating capabilities for defense industrial cooperation. In addition, both the United States and Taiwan should invest resources into assessing China’a RD&A in order to pace the threat into the future. This is an opportunity for the United States and Taiwan to cooperate in developing options and capabilities to counter the PLA threat, and to lay the groundwork for achieving unity of effort.

Mark Stokes is executive director at the Project 2049 Institute in Arlington, Va., where Colby Ferland is director of programs and Eric Lee is associate director of programs.

 NEWS

Grindr Faces Boycott After Gay CEO's Right-Wing Tweets Are Revealed

#DeleteGrindr is trending over past tweets supporting Trump, DeSantis, Youngkin, and more from the hookup app’s new CEO.

BY DONALD PADGETT

OCTOBER 13 2022 

The right-wing political views of the new head of Grindr are causing some users to delete the popular gay dating and hookup app.

The tag #DeleteGrindr is trending after news incoming CEO George Arison, 44, previously tweeted he was a conservative who supported some of the positions of then-President Donald Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin. Arrison, who is openly gay, starts his new job on October 19.

“FYI I am a conservative & agree with some Trump policies,” Arison wrote in a since-deleted Tweet on February 28, 2020.

“Should totally run for President,” he wrote of Youngkin in a retweet dated February 24 of this year.

Arison appeared to express support for DeSantis in another retweet from January. In a retweet, he wrote the man who championed the recently passed “don’t say gay” law was “not ideal” but agreed the Republican governor was “better-suited to advance a new, more comabtive (sic) and populist party.”

The Advocate has reached out to Grindr for comment.

Users on social media responded quickly, calling out the past statements from Arison.

Another user called out Arison’s support for Youngkin.

Others indicated they were ditching Grindr completely.

Arison came to Grindr from e-commerce marketplace Shift Technologies, Inc., where he was CEO and co-founder. In a statement to Queerty about the issue, Grindr centered on Arison’s sexual identity as a gay man, husband, and father.

“George is an out gay man, proudly married to his husband and the father of two children,” Grindr said. “George is passionate about fighting for the rights and freedoms of LGBTQ people around the world.”

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Comet Supercomputer Pilots Extreme Ensemble for Predicting Atmospheric River Events


An atmospheric river soaks California. 

Credit: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Published Date October 12, 2022
By:Cynthia Dillon - cdillon@ucsd.edu


Atmospheric rivers are narrow bands of moisture-laden air, often more than a thousand miles long and a few hundred miles wide, that affect precipitation around the world. Forecasting their impact is especially important in the western United States where they can account for up to 50% of total annual rainfall. They bring significant benefits, such as filling reservoirs and contributing to Sierra snowpack, but can also lead to catastrophic floods and landslides.

To gain a better understanding of atmospheric rivers, the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) at Scripps Institution of Oceanography, in collaboration with the San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC), both located at UC San Diego, developed an unprecedented forecasting system based on a large collection of atmospheric simulations. Based on initial conditions, dynamic models and physics this collection of calculations – called an ensemble forecast – is a novel and innovative element of CW3E’s work to increase the skill of predicting the timing and magnitude and associated uncertainty of extreme precipitation events primarily focused on atmospheric rivers.

With a goal to reliably quantify the forecast uncertainty, improve overall quality of probabilistic predictions and better sample the distribution of extreme events, the new West-Weather Research and Forecasting (West-WRF) Near Real-Time (NRT) 200-Member Ensemble, CW3E relied on the Comet supercomputer at SDSC to supply the computing power, which has a peak performance of nearly three quadrillion operations per second. This capacity was needed to complete the ensemble’s nightly data runs in less than 10 hours, per the operational requirements of CW3E’s Atmospheric River Reconnaissance (AR Recon) Program, which improves forecasts of precipitation for water management decisions by targeting airborne observations in and around atmospheric rivers and utilizing buoy observations over the Northeast Pacific. The goal of AR Recon is to improve forecasts of the landfall and impacts of atmospheric rivers on the U.S. West Coast at lead times of one to five days.

The ensemble calculations used 1,200 Comet compute nodes to accelerate the runs, while still leaving over 700 compute nodes for other ongoing research at CW3E. It included 100 unique combinations of physics models, boundary conditions and applied perturbations based on the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS). The models covered a domain that ranged from the southwest of Hawaii to the western states of California, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Nevada and Arizona, to southern Alaska. Through careful planning by CW3E and SDSC, researchers attained a 94% success rate of ensemble members finishing in time to support CW3E’s AR Recon.

Early results from ongoing analysis of the data shows the ensemble design achieved the project objectives. CW3E researchers are working to expand upon the current decision-support forecast products. The new products will address the challenges of probabilistic uncertainty in a format that is easier to understand and incorporate into decision-making. Researchers from CW3E and SDSC are collaborating on a project to improve the performance and stability of the ensemble and expect performance increases.

With the success of the West-WRF-NRT 200-member ensemble, CW3E is exploring how to further improve the system design and performance during the 2022-2023 water season.

This work used the Comet supercomputer, which was made available by the Atmospheric River Program Phase 2 and 3 supported by the California Department of Water Resources (awards 4600013361 and 4600014294 respectively) and the Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations Program supported by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Engineer Research and Development Center (award USACE W912HZ-15-2-0019).

Inquiries should be directed to Daniel Steinhoff, Luca Delle Monache, or Patrick Mulrooney.

Superhero film 'Black Adam' premieres in New York

The world premiere of "Black Adam" in New York on Wednesday, Oct. 12, 2022 -

Copyright © africanewsEvan Agostini/2022 Invision

By Lauriane Noelle Vofo Kana
with AP Last updated: 14/10 - 

"Black Adam", the first-ever feature film to explore the story of DC antihero Teth Adam is coming to the big screen featuring Dwayne Johnson and other Hollywood big names.

The 2 hour-9-minute film tells the story of a slave gifted with almighty powersthat he uses for vengeance. Imprisoned for 5,000 years he is freed and wields his dark sense of justice onto the world.

At the world premiere in Times Square Wednesday, lead actor and co-producer Johnson was happy looking how far he's come.

"When I saw my first Black Adam comic and he was intense, he looked bad ass, he looked cool. And he had brown skin. And then I start to realize he has all the powers of Superman. And he looks like me", Johnson revealed.

"That's why I was important to me. So I fought for this thing. And ten, 15 years ago, the studio had said, Hey, are there any other superheroes that you're interested in playing? Because Black Adam, depending on your interpretation, was a secondary character. I said, No, it's always got to be Black Adam. I fought for 15 years. Here we are."

Revered material source

Former James Bond Pierce Brosnan enjoyed his time as a modern superhero.

"There's such a wealth of stories there. I've stood in the in the wings of wonderment, wondering if I would ever be asked to play in a movie, to be a superhero. Because I grew up on comics. Batman was the dude that I loved....."

The movie is based on characters from DC comics created by Bill Parker and C.C. Beck. A source material revered by cast members.

"This film was made by fans for the fans. This film was made with the passion and the respect of what that source material is", actor Aldis Hodge said.



"For me, it was really a monumental moment of being able to step into my own and really fully form a character, but also really realize my dreams in terms of what this looks like as an actor. This is the grandest stage I've ever been on with the greatest cast. It's amazing!", he exclaimed.

"Because we put our heart, literally blood, sweat and tears into this", Hodge concluded.

"Black Adam" lands in South Africa on 21 October 2022 as well as in the U.S. and U.K. theaters.

The Black Adam Theme (from "Black Adam") by highly respected Grammy Award-winning and Emmy-nominated composer Lorne Balfe ('Mission Impossible: Fallout,' 'The Lego Batman Movie,' 'Black Widow').

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https://www.africanews.com/embed/2093332

Dwayne Johnson explains why 'Black Adam' is an inspiration; jokes he ate donuts to prepare for the role

Haley Chi-Sing, Stephanie Giang-Paunon
Thu, October 13, 2022

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson is taking on his first superhero role, and he is taking his job as a superhero seriously!

The actor told Fox News Digital about his training regimen for "Black Adam," while also emphasizing the positive influence he believes the diverse cast will have on children.

"All kids will look at ‘Black Adam’ and the JSA [Justice Society of America] and the cast and the color and the diversity that we have in our cast and crew and go, ‘I can be that,’" Johnson said at the "Black Adam" New York City world premiere.

Johnson, the star of the newest DC superhero film, was joined on the red carpet by his "Black Adam" co-stars including Pierce Brosnan, Noah Centineo, and Aldis Hodge.

Johnson told Fox News Digital he has been inspired by Black Adam since he was a child and could especially relate to the fictional comic character due to his "brown skin."

"So that's why I've been pushing for this movie for so long, for so many years," Johnson said with a smile. "Black Adam influenced me as a kid and made me think, ‘Oh, I can do that! I can be that!’"

Johnson continued on to say he hopes that not only children of color but "all kids" will look at the new DC superhero- as well as the diverse cast -as inspiration.

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson attends DC's "Black Adam" 

New York Premiere at AMC Empire 25 on Oct. 12, 2022 in New York City.

"I also want them to think that that's the norm," Johnson said regarding the film's diverse cast. "It's going to be the norm."

The film's cast represents a variety of different backgrounds and ethnicities.

Johnson also joked around on the red carpet, laughingly telling Fox News Digital he ate "donuts and cake and a bunch of s--- I shouldn't be eating" when asked how he trained for the film.

"No, I worked really hard for this," Johnson said. "I wanted to get in the best shape of my life; that was my goal, at least."

Left to right, Pierce Brosnan, Noah Centineo, Dwayne Johnson, Aldis Hodge and Quintessa Swindell attend DC's "Black Adam" New York Premiere at AMC Empire 25 on Oct. 12, 2022 in New York City.

The actor noted that he only got "one shot" with the role and worked hard to give the performance his all. Johnson said that no matter which direction the film was taken - good or bad - he ultimately had given "it his all."

"Black Adam" is directed by Jaume Collet-Serra, and is a spin-off of the 2019 DC superhero film, "Shazam." The film follows Johnson's titular anti-hero character who has been imprisoned for 5,000 years before being released into the modern world.

Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson appears at the Warner Brothers panel promoting his upcoming film "Black Adam" at 2022 Comic-Con.

"Black Adam" will be released on October 21.