AMLO; NEO LIBERAL PERONIST
Mexican president masses supporters to show political ‘muscle’

By AFP
Published November 27, 2022

Supporters of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador fill a thoroughfare in Mexico City - Copyright AFP -
Jennifer Gonzalez Covarrubias

Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador and thousands of supporters took to the streets of the capital Sunday for a march seen as a show of political strength by the left-wing populist.

Amid cries of “it’s an honor to be with Obrador,” the president joined flag-waving crowds to personally lead a rally that comes as his allies warm up for the race to replace him in 2024.

The aim was to celebrate the government’s “transformation of Mexico” four years into his six-year term, Lopez Obrador, known by his initials AMLO, said ahead of the march.

“The president is not alone,” read a placard at the rally, while others vowed support for the government’s controversial electoral reform plan.

“I like the way AMLO governs, always doing everything for the most vulnerable,” said Alma Perez, a 35-year-old teacher who traveled from the southern state of Guerrero to join the march.

Lopez Obrador “has done what no other president has done for the poor,” said Ramon Suarez, a 33-year-old electrician.

“He has some areas in which to improve such as security, but that’s not done overnight,” Suarez added.

Mariachi bands entertained the president’s supporters, who arrived on buses from around the country, many wearing purple, the color of his Morena party.

The rally comes two weeks after tens of thousands joined an opposition protest against the president’s proposed electoral reform.

Lopez Obrador wants to “show muscle,” said Fernando Dworak, a political analyst at the Mexican Autonomous Institute of Technology.

“It was a serious mistake by the opposition to believe that the president can be beaten on the streets,” he told AFP, referring to the November 13 anti-government protest.

– ‘Oiled machinery’ –

Lopez Obrador, who enjoys an approval rating of nearly 60 percent, owes much of his popularity to his social welfare programs aimed at helping the elderly and disadvantaged Mexicans.

Mexican presidents are barred from serving more than one term, and Lopez Obrador has ruled out trying to change the constitution to stay in office.

Even so, he is keen to see his Morena party hold onto power after he stands aside.

Three of Lopez Obrador’s allies and potential successors — Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard and Interior Minister Adan Augusto Lopez — accompanied him at the rally.

Lopez Obrador knows “that in order for him to win elections he needs oiled machinery that works all the time,” said Gustavo Lopez, a political scientist at Tecnologico de Monterrey, a Mexican university.

Opposition parties accuse Lopez Obrador of being an “authoritarian” populist who is “militarizing” the country by giving a greater role to the armed forces in both security and infrastructure projects.

His efforts to revamp the independent National Electoral Institute (INE) have proven particularly controversial.

Lopez Obrador alleges that the INE endorsed fraud when he ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2006 and 2012, before winning in 2018.

He wants the organization to be replaced by a new body with members chosen by voters instead of lawmakers and with a smaller budget.

Critics see the plan as an attack on one of Mexico’s most important democratic institutions.

The reform would require support from at least two-thirds of lawmakers in Congress, and Lopez Obrador’s political opponents have vowed to oppose the changes.

Mexico president to 'show muscle' at big political rally

Jennifer Gonzalez Covarrubias
Sat, November 26, 2022 


Supporters of Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador are expected to flood the streets of Mexico City on Sunday in a major show of political strength by the left-wing populist.

The rally comes as presidential hopefuls, including Lopez Obrador's allies, warm up for the race to replace him in 2024.

Two weeks after tens of thousands joined an opposition protest against his proposed electoral reform, Lopez Obrador plans to lead a pro-government march through the heart of the capital.

The aim is to celebrate the government's "transformation of Mexico" four years into his six-year term, Lopez Obrador told reporters.

"I invite all the people, all those who can attend," including government ministers and lawmakers, he said.

It will be the first such march led by a Mexican president in at least four decades, and possibly the biggest pro-government rally since Lopez Obrador took office in 2018, according to experts.

Lopez Obrador wants to "show muscle," Fernando Dworak, a political analyst at the Mexican Autonomous Institute of Technology, said.

"It was a serious mistake by the opposition to believe that the president can be beaten on the streets," he told AFP, referring to the November 13 anti-government protest.

- 'Oiled machinery' -

Lopez Obrador enjoys an approval rating of nearly 60 percent, and few doubt his ability to draw a huge crowd on Sunday, when he plans to give a speech outlining his achievements in office.

Mexican presidents are barred from serving more than one term, and Lopez Obrador has ruled out trying to change the constitution to stay in office.

Even so, he is keen to see his Morena party hold onto power after he stands aside.

Two of Lopez Obrador's close allies and potential successors, Mexico City Mayor Claudia Sheinbaum and Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard, are expected to march alongside him.

Lopez Obrador knows "that in order for him to win elections he needs oiled machinery that works all the time," said Gustavo Lopez, a political scientist at Tecnologico de Monterrey, a Mexican university.

Opposition parties accuse Lopez Obrador of being an "authoritarian" populist who is "militarizing" the country by giving a greater role to the armed forces in both security and infrastructure projects.

His efforts to revamp the independent National Electoral Institute (INE) have proven particularly controversial.

Lopez Obrador alleges that the INE endorsed fraud when he ran unsuccessfully for the presidency in 2006 and 2012, before winning in 2018.

He wants the organization to be replaced by a new body with members chosen by voters instead of lawmakers and with a smaller budget.

Critics see the plan as an attack on one of Mexico's most important democratic institutions.

The reform would require support from at least two-thirds of lawmakers in Congress, and Lopez Obrador's political opponents have vowed to oppose the changes.

https://www.marxists.org/archive/trotsky/germany/1934/340715.htm

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Apr 25, 2007 ... It is a military-police dictatorship with which we are confronted, barely concealed with the decorations of parliamentarism. But a government of ...

https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1852/18th-brumaire

18th Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte. Marx 1852

Marx wrote The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Napoleon between December 1851 and March 1852. The "Eighteenth Brumaire" refers to November 9, 1799 in the ...

'Forgotten' Afghan stories highlighted in two new films from Netflix, Nat Geo

Andrew MARSZAL
Sat, November 26, 2022 


The world's focus has shifted to the war in Ukraine, but two major new documentaries aim to throw the spotlight back on Afghanistan, and the people left behind by the United States' rapid withdrawal last year.

National Geographic's "Retrograde" follows an Afghan general who tried in vain to hold back the Taliban advance in 2021, while Netflix's "In Her Hands" tells the story of the country's youngest woman mayor, who had to flee as the Islamists took over.

"We've forgotten about this story -- when was the last time we discussed the war in Afghanistan, or read an article about it?" said "Retrograde" director Matthew Heineman.

"Obviously there's still some coverage of it, but... not that many people are talking about this country that we left behind."

Zarifa Ghafari, the former mayor spotlighted by "In Her Hands," told AFP that back under the Taliban, Afghanistan is "the only country around the world nowadays where a woman can sell their body, their children, anything else, but are not able to go to school."

But at international political meetings, "Afghanistan is out of those discussions."

Both movies begin in the months before the US withdrawal, as their subjects tried to build a safer and more egalitarian future for their country.

The two films end with their central characters forced to watch from abroad as the Taliban rapidly erases all their work.

"Retrograde" began as a documentary with rare inside access to US special forces.

In one early scene, US troops are shown having to destroy -- or retrograde -- their equipment and wastefully fire off excess ammunition that was sorely needed by their Afghan allies.

After the Americans left their base in Helmand, Afghan general Sami Sadat agreed to let Heineman's cameras stay and follow him, as he took charge of the ultimately doomed effort to stave off Taliban advances.

In one scene, Sadat -- stubbornly determined to rally his men to fight on as the situation crumbles around them -- chides his aide for bringing to his war office persistent reports of nearby Afghan troops downing their weapons.

"Every neon sign was saying 'stop, give up, this is over,' and he had this blind faith that maybe, just maybe, if he held on to Lashkar Gah or Helmand, that they could beat back the Taliban," recalled Heineman.

Sadat eventually had to flee, and the filmmakers shifted their lens again, to desperate scenes at Kabul airport as Afghans fought for spaces on the last American planes out.

"It was one of the most difficult things I've ever witnessed in my career," added Heineman, who was nominated for an Oscar for 2015's "Cartel Land."

"Discussions around wars in public policy and foreign policy, they're often talked about and discussed without the human element," said the director.

"One of the things I've tried to do throughout my career is take these large, amorphous subjects and put a human face to them."
- 'Murder' -

Former mayor Ghafari had survived assassination attempts and seen her father gunned down by the Taliban before she too left Afghanistan as the Islamists moved in.

"Talking about that moment, I'm still not able to stop crying... it was something that I really never wanted to do," said Ghafari, who drew the Taliban's ire by campaigning for girls' education after being appointed mayor of Maidan Shahr aged 24.

"I had some personal responsibilities, especially after the murder of my dad... to help secure my family."

The directors of "In Her Hands," which counts Hillary Clinton among its executive producers, returned to Afghanistan and filmed Ghafari's former driver Massoum, now unemployed and living under the Taliban.

In unsettling scenes, he is seen bonding with the same fighters who once attacked the car in which he was driving Ghafari.

"The story of Massoum represents the story of all Afghanistan's crisis... why people are feeling betrayed," said Ghafari.
- 'Share their pain' -

Though the conflicts in Afghanistan and Ukraine are vastly different in nature, both films offer a cautionary tale about what can happen once the West's focus shifts.

"Obviously, that's happened throughout history, and will continue to happen long into the future. And so what can we learn from this experience?" said Heineman.

Ghafari said: "Whatever happens in Ukraine and happened in Ukraine, it's the same thing that we have been going through for like 60 years.

"The same thing, again and again. So we share their pain."

amz/hg/sw/dva

Qatar's migrant workers enjoy World Cup on the cheap


Sat, November 26, 2022 

Shafeeq Saqafi paid $3 for the Argentina shirt he proudly wore when he sat with 15,000 other migrant workers in a hidden corner of Doha to watch Lionel Messi's side salvage their World Cup.

Messi's goal in the 2-0 win over Mexico late Saturday brought the biggest crowd seen at the Asian Town stadium to their feet and Saqafi beat his chest in delight.

Saqafi and his friends bristle at European media suggestions that they are "fake fans" but readily acknowledge that they buy counterfeit team shirts for $3 or less, instead of the $90 which official kit costs.

"I could not afford to have the letters printed on the back, but the shirt was something I really wanted," said the 32-year-old hotel worker who earns just over $400 a month and sends more than half of that back to his family in Bangladesh.

Saqafi is one of the 2.5 million foreign workers who have been the foundation of Qatar's economic miracle -- helping pump oil and gas, building its World Cup stadiums and infrastructure and staffing the dozens of new hotels that have opened in the past five years.

Rights groups say the workers have been massively abused.

Qatar responds by citing the increased safety standards and salary protections in factories and at outdoor work sites, and reduced working hours in Qatar's notoriously hot summer.

- Hindi pop and football -

The stadium, in the Asian Town shopping complex on the outskirts of Doha, has become a daily draw for thousands of the poorest workers who live in nearby dormitories away from Doha's glitzy shopping malls and restaurants.

An Indian woman DJ revs up the overwhelmingly male and South Asian crowd before each match with Hindi pop songs and Bollywood videos.


Many, like Saqafi, wear Argentina shirts. For most, the fan zone on the cricket pitch is the nearest they will get to the World Cup. The legal minimum wage is 1,000 riyals (around $260), which many still earn.

A few thousand 40-riyal ($10) World Cup tickets were put on sale and quickly snapped up. Those remaining are too expensive for the average construction worker in Qatar.

Buying an official team shirt is also out of the question. So Saqafi and many of his friends bought one of the high quality fakes on sale in backstreet stores.

Yaseen Gul, who has worked for a Doha electrical firm for a decade, said he comes to the stadium "to enjoy myself -- cheaply."

"Qatar is very hard. The work is hard. In summer it is very hot," he said. "But my salary has improved and I will not go home."


Shaqeel Mahmoud said he could not afford to buy match tickets and he had to leave the Argentina game before the end because he had to go work.

A cup of hot milky tea at the stadium beverage stand costs $1, but many workers said this was too much and there were no queues. Hundreds line up at the FIFA Fan Festival 10 kilometres (six miles) away to pay $13.50 for a beer.

"There is no pressure to buy anything so I am grateful for that," said Shaqeel.

tw/it

Thousands protest Turkish strikes on Kurdish groups in Syria

By AFP
Published November 27, 2022

Syrian-Kurdish demonstrators in Qamishli raise pictures of people killed in Turkish strikes - Copyright AFP -

Thousands of Kurds protested on Sunday in the Syrian city of Qamishli against Turkish cross-border strikes targeting Kurdish groups in the country’s northeast, an AFP photojournalist said.

One week ago Turkey began a barrage of air strikes against the semi-autonomous Kurdish zones in north and northeastern Syria, and across the border in Iraq.

It has also threatened a ground offensive in those areas of Syria.

The strikes came after a November 13 bombing in Istanbul that killed six people and wounded 81 and that Ankara blamed on the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which it and its Western allies consider a terrorist group.

The PKK has waged an insurgency against the Turkish state since 1984. Turkey alleges that Syrian Kurdish fighters are the PKK’s allies.

Kurdish groups denied any involvement in the Ankara blast.

Demonstrators in Kurdish-controlled Qamishli in Hasakeh province on Sunday brandished photos of people killed during the last strikes in the semi-autonomous region, the AFP photojournalist said.

They carried Kurdish flags alongside photos of PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan — jailed in Turkey since 1999 — and protesters shouted slogans against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

They also chanted in favour of the resistance in “Rojava” — the name Kurds in Syria give to the area they administer.

“Only the will of the Kurdish people remains,” protester Siham Sleiman, 49, told AFP. “It will not be broken and we remain ready. We will not leave our historic land.”

Another demonstrator, Salah el-Dine Hamou, 55, said: “The message that we want to convey to the world is that we are victims of eradication.

“How long will we continue to die while other countries watch?”

The Turkish raids have killed at least 58 Kurdish fighters and Syrian soldiers, as well as a Kurdish journalist, according to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which has an extensive network of sources in Syria.

Turkey’s military has conducted three offensives against Kurdish fighters and jihadists since 2016 and already captured territory in northern Syria, held by Ankara-backed Syrian proxies.

US-supported Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), now the Kurds’ de facto army in the area, led the battle that dislodged Islamic State group jihadist fighters from the last scraps of their Syrian territory in 2019.

In drought-hit Iraq, a dam threatens to swallow farmland

Tens of thousands of Iraqis are threatened by the Makhoul dam

Published: November 27, 2022

AFP

A bridge spans the Tigris river near the Makhoul dam site, in northern Iraq's Salaheddine province.Image Credit: AFP

Al Messahag: Jamil Al Juburi, 53, has never left his village in northern Iraq, where his family has worked the land for generations - but a dam will soon swallow his home, forcing them out.

Tens of thousands of Iraqis are threatened by the Makhoul dam, which the government hopes will be operational on the mighty Tigris in five years.

"I was born here and I grew up here," said Juburi, whose village of Al Messahag is set in pasture land on the banks of the river.

"It's difficult to leave for somewhere else. It is a whole past that we leave behind us."

Once the dam is erected, Juburi's whole region will be under three billion cubic metres (105 billion cubic feet) of water.

In a country highly vulnerable to climate change - and buffeted by three consecutive years of drought - authorities have defended the project, which will boost water stores and help prevent shortages.

However, activists decry the impact on more than 30 villages - home to about 118,000 people - and the threats to biodiversity and archaeological sites.

A view of the village of Messahag on the banks of the Tigris river in northern Iraq's Salaheddine province, one of the villages that will be submerged in water if the Iraqi government completes the project of building the Makhoul dam.

Image Credit: AFP

Employed at a state-run oil refinery, Juburi leaves his sons to work the family land, where they plant wheat and citrus trees.

He would agree to move, he said, to put "the national interest above personal interest" - on condition that the dam "will serve Iraq" as a whole.

Juburi also demanded "adequate damages" in order to safeguard his and his family's future.

'Severe threat'

Iraq already has eight dams, but it complains that construction of the facilities upstream, mainly in neighbouring Turkey, has impacted its river volumes.

Plans for the Makhoul facility can be traced back to 2001, in the twilight of dictator Saddam Hussein's rule.

His downfall in a US-led invasion and chaotic subsequent occupation saw the project shelved for years.

Work finally got underway in 2021, with drilling, soil analysis and a bridge spanning the river.

Riad Al Samarai, deputy governor of Salaheddin province, lists a 250 MW hydroelectric power plant and an "irrigation canal that will serve agricultural areas and contribute to the nation's food security" as among the project's benefits.

"The public interest requires the construction of this dam to guarantee water reserves for Iraq," he said.

A road leading to the village of Messahag in northern Iraq's Salaheddine province, one of the villages that will be submerged in water if the Iraqi government completes the project of building the Makhoul dam.

Image Credit: AFP

Five villages are located on the site of the future reservoir, he added, and "a commission has been formed by the provinces and relevant ministries to ensure adequate damages for residents" and to relocate them.

But civil society is up in arms, not only about the human impact.

There are also repercussions for flora and fauna, warn environmental groups Save the Tigris and Humat Dijlah, who say the ancient city of Ashur - a UNESCO world heritage site - is also at risk.

In August, the International Organization for Migration noted that "there has been no official attempt to speak or engage" with local communities.

"Respondents who are farmworkers and landowners saw Makhoul Dam as a severe threat to their livelihoods," IOM said in a report, sharing the findings of a study by Iraqi organisation Liwan for Culture and Development.

Lack of trust

"Nobody has come to see us. Nobody has asked us anything," said Jamil's father, Ibrahim al-Juburi, who is in his 80s.

"My ancestors, my father, then I, all stayed in this region," the farmer said, his body hunched.

Liwan researcher Mehiyar Kathem said the real problem was the "reduction of water that is coming in" from upstream beyond Iraq's borders.

"Iraq doesn't need a new dam," he added. Instead, "the Tigris needs to keep flowing" because of the increase in salinity.

Kathem also pointed to the impact on vulnerable women-led households.

"There is a higher number of women in the area who rely on the agriculture and on the land. We don't know what is going to happen to female-headed households."

The study found that 39 villages - each home to between 200 and 8,000 residents - risk being submerged.

According to Liwan, 67 square kilometres (26 square miles) of "fertile farmland, estates and orchards" will also disappear if the Makhoul dam reaches full capacity, and more than 61,000 livestock will have to be "sold or relocated".

"The dam can disrupt the everyday life of some 118,412 individuals," said Liwan, noting an "absence of trust with decision-makers" among the local communities.

Residents "commonly stated that any expression of discontent with Makhoul dam would fall on deaf ears, and their voices would be ignored", it added.

Equatorial Guinea's poor lose hope

Brand new homes intended for Equatorial Guinea's lower-income families have cropped up across the capital Malabo, but shanty town residents say they are going to the middle class and wealthy instead.

President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo on Saturday won a sixth term in office, a much-expected result in an authoritarian country with next to no political opposition.

The 80-year-old has been in power for 43 years -- the longest rule of any leader alive in the world today except monarchs.

During his election campaign in 2009, Obiang promised "social housing for all" in the oil-rich central African state.


Obiang planned to provide enough housing to raise Malabo's shanty towns, including Nubili, a mass of tin-roofed shacks along narrow paths that is home to thousands of families in the heart of the city.

Since, some 20,000 housing projects have sprung up in the country of around 1.5 million residents.

But sitting outside his shack in Nubili, 70-year-old Julio Ondo said none of them appeared to be for people like him.

"They've made fools of the poor," he said. I've lost all hope of one day living in "dignified housing".

Most people live in poverty in Equatorial Guinea, the World Bank estimates, while wealth is concentrated in the hands of just a few families.
- 'I'll be dead' -

In some parts of Malabo today, lines of identical apartment blocks have sprung up as far as the eye can see, built with the profits of high international oil prices.


In the suburb of Buena Esperanza, some 2,300 small detached homes appeared during the 2010s, supposed to welcome families from Nubili.

But today, shiny four-wheel drives and other expensive cars line the neighbourhood's streets, appearing to indicate the wealth of its new residents.

The homes are being sold for around $15,500, payable in monthly instalments of $78.

But that is astronomical for many in Nubili.

Plantain farmer Antonio Omecha, 72, is one of many who had hoped the housing plan would allow him to leave a slum plagued with disease and frequent fires.

He said he did receive a housing coupon to go and live in Buena Esperanza.

"But we had to pay 1.5 million francs (more than $2,350)" upfront first, he said.

It was impossible on his monthly income of $30.

His neighbour Tobias Ondo, 65, said the new homes were simply too expensive.

"Do you really think someone who works seven days and barely makes 2,000 francs can afford to own such a home?" he said.

"I'll be dead before I go and live in the public housing promised by the president."
- 'Powerful' landlords -

Equatorial Guinea is the region's third richest country, with a GDP per capita of $8,462 last year, after the Seychelles and Mauritius, the World Bank says.

But in 2006, when the oil boom was in full swing, more than three quarters of the population lived in "extreme poverty", or on less than $1.90 a day, the international financial body said. There have been no new figures since.

The country ranked 172 out of 180 in Transparency International's 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index.

During his election campaign at the start of the month, Obiang admitted that social housing intended for "people without great means" had been snapped up instead by "people able to build their own home".

But he did not offer a solution.

Martinez Obiang, of micro-financing firm Atom Finances, says he thinks the homes should have cost no more than the equivalent of $780, payable in tiny monthly instalments of less than $3.

Sociologist Nsogo Eyi said the new homes, including those in Buena Esperanza, did not seem to be serving their intended purpose.

"Some powerful men have bought them to rent them out, including to expats," he said.

AFP reached out to several of these new owners, but they refused to comment.

sam-lad-gir-tg/ah/imm

Obiang wins sixth term as E. Guinea ruler


By AFP
November 26, 2022


Obiang had the backing of a coalition of 15 parties - Copyright AFP Pedro Rances Mattey
Samuel OBIANG

Equatorial Guinea’s ruler Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has been re-elected to a sixth term as president with 94.9 percent of the votes cast, election officials announced on Saturday, putting turnout for the vote at 98 percent.

Obiang, 80, who seized power in a 1979 coup, is the longest-ruling head of state in the world excluding monarchs. He has never officially been re-elected with less than 93 percent of the vote.

Electoral commission head Faustino Ndong Esono Eyang confirmed that Obiang would serve another seven years in the top job. The commission said the turnout rate for the election was 98 percent.

The landslide result was widely expected in the oil-rich and authoritarian Central African nation, where the political opposition is extremely weak.

Obiang had the backing of a coalition of 15 parties, including his all-powerful ruling Democratic Party of Equatorial Guinea (PDGE).

The PDGE, which was the country’s only legal political movement until 1991, also swept all seats in the National Assembly and the Senate.

The percentages won by the opposition candidates, Andres Esono Ondo of the Convergence for Social Democracy and Buenaventura Monsuy Asumu of the Social Democratic Coalition Party, were not announced, with both garnering just a few thousand votes.

“The definitive results of the vote find in our favour once more,” Obiang’s son, Vice President Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, wrote on Twitter.

“We will continue to prove that we are a great political party.”

– ‘History repeating itself’ –

Obiang has ruled Equatorial Guinea for more than 43 years after ousting his uncle, Francisco Macias Nguema, who was then executed by a firing squad.

He has suppressed dissent and seen off a string of attempted coups in the Spanish-speaking nation.

Security forces arrested opposition figures in the weeks before the result, with the regime saying it was thwarting a “conspiracy” to commit attacks in the capital Malabo and economic hub Bata.

The authorities also closed the country’s land borders with neighbouring Gabon and Cameroon before campaigning began, saying it was foiling infiltrators from disrupting the vote.

Obiang is just the second president in Equatorial Guinea’s history since it gained independence in 1968 from Spain, its colonial power for nearly two centuries.

“Equatorial Guinea’s history has been repeating itself for 43 years and the political vision established by the government will continue after this election,” Justo Bolekia, a professor at Spain’s University of Salamanca, told AFP.

“It was predictable, including for the opposition. We were even expecting a score closer to 98 percent,” he added.

The discovery of offshore oil in the mid-1990s turned Equatorial Guinea into sub-Saharan Africa’s third-richest country in terms of per-capita income in 2021.

But the wealth has remained concentrated in the hands of a few families.

In 2006, when the oil boom was in full swing, more than three quarters of the population lived in extreme poverty, or on less than $1.90 a day, according to the World Bank. There have been no new figures since.

The country also has a reputation for graft, ranking 172 out of 180 nations on Transparency International’s 2021 Corrupti


Teodoro Obiang, Equatorial Guinea’s iron-fisted ruler


By AFP
Published November 26, 2022


President Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has been in power for 43 years, longer than any current leader apart from monarchs - Copyright POOL/AFP ludovic MARIN

Confirmed for a sixth term as president, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo has ruled oil-rich Equatorial Guinea since August 1979, overseeing a regime notorious for crushing dissent and fearing coups.

The 80-year-old’s 43 years in power are the longest of any leader alive in the world today, with the exception of monarchs.

He seized power from Francisco Macias Nguema, who in 1968 had become Equatorial Guinea’s first president upon independence from Spain and later declared himself president for life. Macias — Obiang’s uncle — was executed by firing squad two months after the coup.

Obiang’s opponents say that under his iron-fisted, hermetic tenure, the country has become the “North Korea of Africa”.

The regime’s ruthlessness is regularly condemned by rights watchdogs, who have documented mass, arbitrary arrests, dissidents held in nightmarish prison conditions and frequent sweeps against suspected plotters.

In a country where there is just a single authorised opposition party, Obiang exercises near-total political control.

In 2016, he was re-elected with 93.7 percent of the vote: this time, the official result gave him 94.9 percent, on a turnout of 98 percent.

– Son in the wings –

Obiang’s son, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, known as Teodorin, is widely seen as his successor, and has ascended the ranks to the position of vice president today.

In an interview ahead of the 2016 vote, the elder Obiang told the French-language Jeune Afrique magazine that this would be the last time he would run.

“I have been in power for too long, but the people want me to be their president,” he said.

Asked whether Teodorin was being groomed for power, he said: “Equatorial Guinea isn’t a monarchy… but if he’s got talent, there’s nothing I can do.”

Speculation that he would hand over the reins in the upcoming vote gained pace as his public appearances became rarer.

But those expectations were quashed after Teodorin was enveloped in scandals abroad and a conviction in France for ill-gotten gains — state assets acquired illegally.

France, Britain and the United States have ordered him to forfeit millions of dollars in assets, from mansions to luxury cars, while France also handed him a three-year suspended sentence and a fine of 30 million euros.

The storm, coinciding with a downturn in oil revenue and the economic blow inflicted by Covid, may have prompted the elder Obiang’s inner circle to advise against leadership change.

The PDGE unanimously chose Obiang as its candidate “because of his charisma, his leadership and his political experience”, Teodorin wrote on Twitter. The party’s election slogan, seen universally on posters and state TV, was “continuity”.

– Fear of coups –

Obiang graduated from military school while the country, as Spanish Guinea, was still under the rule of Spain’s fascist dictator, General Francisco Franco.

He then held a string of key jobs, including head of the notorious Black Beach prison — a place of “living hell”, in the words of Amnesty International.

His violent path to power has bequeathed a deep fear of coups.

His bodyguard comprises soldiers who are members of his clan, but — for additional security — he has a close-protection unit who are reputedly Israelis. Zimbabweans and Ugandans have also been brought in to help guard the presidential palace.

Obiang says he has foiled at least 10 attempted coups and assassinations during his long spell in power, often blaming dissidents living in exile or “foreign powers”.

The authorities closed the borders ahead of the elections to thwart suspected plotters.

Obiang has been buttressed by the discovery of oil in territorial waters in mid-1996.

The bonanza has turned Equatorial Guinea into sub-Saharan Africa’s third-richest country, in terms of per capita income.

But the wealth is very unequally distributed — four-fifths of the population of 1.4 million live below the poverty threshold according to World Bank figures for 2006, the latest available.

The country has a long-established reputation internationally for graft, ranking 172 out of 180 nations on Transparency International’s 2021 Corruption Perceptions Index.

Charles V: French scientists decode 500-year-old letter

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IMAGE SOURCE,BIBLIOTHÈQUE STANISLAS DE NANCY

Image caption,

French codebreakers finally cracked the 500-year-old code

By Hugh Schofield

BBC News, Paris

A coded letter signed in 1547 by the most powerful ruler in Europe has been cracked by French scientists, revealing that he lived in fear of an assassination attempt by an Italian mercenary.

Sent by the Holy Roman Emperor Charles V to his ambassador at the French royal court - a man called Jean de Saint-Mauris - the letter gives an insight into the preoccupations of Europe's rulers at a time of dangerous instability caused by wars of religion and rival strategic interests.

For historians, it is also a rare glimpse at the darks arts of diplomacy in action: secrecy, smiling insincerity and disinformation were evidently as current then as they are today.

Cryptographer Cecile Pierrot first heard a rumour of the letter's existence at a dinner party in Nancy three years ago. After lengthy research she tracked it down to the basement of the city's historic library.

Setting herself a challenge to decode the document within a few days, she was disconcerted to find the task rather harder than she had thought.

The three-page letter - consisting of about 70 lines - is mainly written using about 120 encrypted symbols, but there are also three sections in plain contemporary French.

"The first thing was to categorise the symbols, and to look for patterns. But it wasn't simply a case of one symbol representing one letter - it was much more complex," says Pierrot.

"Simply putting it into a computer and telling the computer to work it out would literally have taken longer than the history of the universe!"

IMAGE SOURCE,GETTY IMAGES

Image caption,

Charles V was the Holy Roman Emperor from 1519-1556

Little by little she and her team began to make progress. There were, she found, two types of symbol: simple and complex. Vowels were in the main not written as letters, but added as diacritical marks as in Arabic. The 'e' vowel though had no diacritical mark, so was largely absent.

They also found that while most symbols represented letters or combinations of letters, others represented whole words - like a needle for English King Henry VIII. And there were symbols that had apparently no function at all.

Finally the breakthrough came when historian Camille Desenclos pointed the team to other coded letters to and from the emperor. On one of these, kept at Besançon, the recipient had made an informal translation.

"This was our Rosetta Stone," says Pierrot, referring to the inscriptions which help decode Egyptian hieroglyphics. "It was the key. We would have got there in the end without it, but it saved an awful amount of time."

IMAGE SOURCE,BIBLIOTHÈQUE STANISLAS DE NANCY

Image caption,

The code was much more complex than initially thought

The rarity of the letter 'e' is a sign that the codemakers knew their stuff. Because 'e' is the most common letter (in old as in modern French), it is what codebreakers would be looking for first. And the fake symbols were simply put in to sow more confusion.

"Of course by today's standards it is pretty basic," says Pierrot, who spends her normal time thinking about quantum physics and massive prime numbers. "But given the tools they had, they certainly put us to work!"

So what is in the letter?

The team has not yet issued a full translation, which they are saving for an academic paper. But this week they set out the themes.

February 1547 was a time of rare relative peace between the rival powers of France and the Holy Roman Empire. Emperor Charles V - ruler of vast areas including Spain, the Netherlands, Austro-Hungary and southern Italy - was no longer actually at war with King Francois I. But mistrust still prevailed.

Two recent events were in both rulers' minds. The first was the death of the Henry VIII just a few weeks before. And the second was the rebellion in Germany by a Protestant alliance called the Schmalkaldic League.

In the letter, Charles V reveals his concern to maintain the peace with France so that he can focus his forces against the League. He tells the ambassador to keep himself abreast of thinking in the French court, in particular any reaction to the death of King Henry.

What he wants to avoid above all is the French and English combining to lend more assistance to the Protestant rebels.

IMAGE SOURCE,THE CAMBRIDGE MODERN HISTORY ATLAS

Image caption,

Charles V ruled over a swathe of land, spanning across western and central Europe

Charles V then speaks of a rumour which is circulating - that he, the emperor, is to be the target of an assassination attempt by the Italian condottiere (mercenary leader) Pierre Strozzi. Saint-Mauris is to find out as much as he can about this story. Is it just gossip, or a genuine threat?

And finally in the longest part of the letter Charles V sets out for his ambassador the current state of play in his campaign against the League. There has been a new outbreak of rebellion in Prague, and the emperor's nephew Ferdinand of Tyrol has been forced to flee.

But Charles V gives instructions on how Saint-Mauris is to "spin" the news at the French court. The Prague rebellion is a minor affair, he is told to say, and Ferdinand has left the city because he wants to join his father - the emperor's brother - on campaign.

For the historian Camille Desenclos, the fact that some parts of the letter are encrypted and others not is significant.

"They all knew there was one chance in two that the letter would be intercepted. In which case there were messages that were worth passing to the French," she says - like the fact that the emperor was co-operating on confidence-building measures in northern Italy.

"These were left in plain language. But there were other matters that had to stay secret - like the true state of affairs with the Protestant rebellion, and they were put into code."

What followed? Only a few weeks later the French king François I died, to be replaced by his son Henri II. Charles V defeated the League the next year, but Protestantism was in Germany to stay. In 1552 Henri II formed a new alliance against the emperor with the Protestant princes.

And there was no assassination attempt. Charles V died in a Spanish monastery in 1558.

The S&P 500 is Not the Economy

Posted November 25, 2022 by Ben Carlson

Technology stocks make up nearly 24% of the S&P 500.

And that number is probably understating things since many of the biggest companies aren’t technically in the tech sector.

Amazon and Tesla are two of the biggest holdings in the consumer discretionary sector.

Facebook, Google and Netflix are in the communications sector.

Many of these companies are now such a part of our lives that it’s difficult to classify them in just one sector, but you could make the case that technology stocks actually make up more like one-third of the S&P 500.

We’re now seeing mass layoffs in these companies that are so embedded in our daily lives and such a big part of the stock market:

This seems like it has to be worrisome for the rest of the economy…right?

I suppose we could be looking at a canary in the coal mine situation where this is the first domino to fall but the tech industry isn’t nearly as important to the overall economy as it is to the stock market.

Carl Quintanilla pointed out a research note from Goldman Sachs this week that put the tech layoffs into perspective.

Goldman notes that even in the unlikely scenario where every single worker in internet publishing, broadcasting and web search were all laid off immediately, the unemployment rate would rise by less than 0.3%.

In fact, technology only makes up 2% or so of the entire U.S. labor force.

Part of this is because technology companies are more efficient. They don’t need as many employees as a steel mill.

But this mismatch also stems from the fact that the stock market is different than the economy in many ways.

Sam Ro shared a great chart this past week on his Substack that shows the difference in composition between the S&P 500 and the U.S. economy in the form of earnings and economic growth:

Sam notes, “The S&P 500 is more about the manufacture and sale of goods. U.S. GDP is more about providing services.”

The stock market is mostly corporations that make and sell things.

The economy is mostly the stuff we do with those things.

Most of the time the stock market and the economy are moving in the same direction but they also diverge on occasion.

The S&P 500 also receives roughly 40% of revenues from overseas. For technology stocks, that number is closer to 60%.

Profits for the broader economy continue to hit all-time highs:

The same is true for the stock market this year:

Unfortunately, investors aren’t willing to pay as much for those profits this year because inflation and interest rates are higher.

Sometimes investors pay a high multiple of corporate profits and sometimes they pay a low multiple.

The same is true of economic growth.

Take a look at the inflation-adjusted annual returns for the U.S. stock market compared to real GDP growth by decade:

Economic growth was higher in the 1940s but stock market returns were higher in the 1950s.

Real GDP growth was basically the same rate in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Yet the stock market was awful in the 1970s and terrific in the 1980s and 1990s.

Growth has been subdued in each of the first two decades of this century. One of those decades experienced phenomenal stock market performance while the other was dreadful.

Sometimes the stock market takes its cues from the economy.

Sometimes the stock market decides to do its own thing.

I don’t know what’s going to happen with the economy in 2023. I wouldn’t be surprised by continued growth or a recession.

But even if you had a crystal ball that foretold which one of those scenarios was coming in the new year, it probably wouldn’t help you predict what’s going to happen to the stock market.

Michael and I talked about the difference between the stock market and the economy and more on this week’s Animal Spirits:

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Further Reading:
It’s OK to be Confused Right Now

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BEN CARLSON, CFA

A Wealth of Common Sense is a blog that focuses on wealth management, investments, financial markets and investor psychology. I manage portfolios for institutions and individuals at Ritholtz Wealth Management LLC. More about me here.  For disclosure information please see here.