UPDATE
Bare electrical wire and leaning poles on Maui were possible cause of deadly fires

JENNIFER McDERMOTT, BERNARD CONDON and MICHAEL BIESECKER
Updated Sat, August 26, 2023


Linemen work on poles Aug. 13, 2023, in Lahaina, Hawaii, following a deadly wildfire that caused heavy damage days earlier. When the winds of Hurricane Dora lashed Maui Aug. 8, they struck bare electrical lines the Hawaiian electric utility had left exposed to the elements. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer, File)

In the first moments of the Maui fires, when high winds brought down power poles, slapping electrified wires to the dry grass below, there was a reason the flames erupted all at once in long, neat rows -- those wires were bare, uninsulated metal that could spark on contact.

Videos and images analyzed by The Associated Press confirmed those wires were among miles of line that Hawaiian Electric Co. left naked to the weather and often-thick foliage, despite a recent push by utilities in other wildfire- and hurricane-prone areas to cover up their lines or bury them.

Compounding the problem is that many of the utility’s 60,000, mostly wooden power poles, which its own documents described as built to “an obsolete 1960s standard,” were leaning and near the end of their projected lifespan. They were nowhere close to meeting a 2002 national standard that key components of Hawaii’s electrical grid be able to withstand 105 mile per hour winds.

A 2019 filing said it had fallen behind in replacing the old wooden poles because of other priorities and warned of a “serious public hazard” if they “failed.”

Google street view images of poles taken before the fire show the bare wire.

It’s “very unlikely” a fully-insulated cable would have sparked and caused a fire in dry vegetation, said Michael Ahern, who retired this month as director of power systems at Worcester Polytechnic Institute in Massachusetts.

Experts who watched videos showing downed power lines agreed wire that was insulated would not have arced and sparked, igniting a line of flame.

Hawaiian Electric said in a statement that it has “long recognized the unique threats" from climate change and has spent millions of dollars in response, but did not say whether specific power lines that collapsed in the early moments of the fire were bare.

“We've been executing on a resilience strategy to meet these challenges, and since 2018, we have spent approximately $950 million to strengthen and harden our grid and approximately $110 million on vegetation management efforts,” the company said. “This work included replacing more than 12,500 poles and structures since 2018 and trimming and removing trees along approximately 2,500 line miles every year on average.”

But a former member of the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission confirmed many of Maui's wooden power poles were in poor condition. Jennifer Potter lives in Lahaina and until the end of last year was on the commission, which regulates Hawaiian Electric.

“Even tourists that drive around the island are like, ‘What is that?’ They’re leaning quite significantly because the winds over time literally just pushed them over,” she said. “That obviously is not going to withstand 60, 70 mile per hour winds. So the infrastructure was just not strong enough for this kind of windstorm … The infrastructure itself is just compromised.”

John Morgan, a personal injury and trial attorney in Florida who lives part-time in Maui noticed the same thing. “I could look at the power poles. They were skinny, bending, bowing. The power went out all the time.”

Morgan’s firm is suing Hawaiian Electric on behalf of one person and talking to many more about their rights. The fire came within 500 yards of house.

Sixty percent of the utility poles on West Maui were still down on Aug. 14, according to Hawaiian Electric CEO Shelee Kimura at a media conference — 450 of the 750 poles.

Hawaiian Electric is facing a spate of new lawsuits that seek to hold it responsible for the deadliest U.S. wildfire in more than a century. The number of confirmed dead stands at 115, and the county expects that to rise.

Lawyers plan to inspect some electrical equipment from a neighborhood where the fire is thought to have originated as soon as next week, per a court order, but they will be doing that in a warehouse. The utility took down the burnt poles and removed fallen wires from the site.

This was a “preventable tragedy of epic proportions,” said attorney Paul Starita, lead counsel on three of the lawsuits.

“It all comes back to money,” said Starita, of the California firm Singleton Schreiber. “They might say, oh, well, it takes a long time to get the permitting process done or whatever. OK, start sooner. I mean, people’s lives are on the line. You’re responsible. Spend the money, do your job.”

Hawaiian Electric also faces criticism for not shutting off the power amid high wind warnings and keeping it on even as dozens of poles began to topple. Maui County sued Hawaiian Electric on Thursday over this issue.

Michael Jacobs, a senior energy analyst at the Union of Concerned Scientists, said that with power lines causing so many fires in the United States: “We definitely have a new pattern, we just don’t have a new safety regime to go with it.”

Insulating an electrical wire prevents arcing and sparking, and dissipates heat.

Other utilities have been addressing the issue of bare wire. Pacific Gas & Electric was found responsible for the 2018 Camp Fire in northern California that killed 85 people. The disaster was caused by downed power lines.

Its program to eliminate uninsulated wire in fire zones has covered more than 1,200 miles of line so far.

PG&E also announced in 2021 it would bury 10,000 miles of electrical line. It buried 180 miles in 2022 and is on pace to do 350 miles this year.

Another major California utility, Southern California Edison, expects to have replaced more than 7,200 miles, or about 75% of its overhead distribution lines, with covered wire in high fire risk areas by the end of 2025. It, too, is burying line in areas at severe risk.

Hawaiian Electric said in a filing last year that it had looked to the wildfire plans of utilities in California.

Some don’t fault Hawaiian Electric for its comparative lack of action because it has not faced the threat of wildfires for as long. And the utility is not at all alone in continuing to use bare metal conductors high up on power poles.

The same is true for public safety power shutoffs. It's been only a few years that utilities have been willing to preemptively shut off people's power to prevent fire and the disruptive practice is not yet widespread.

But Mark Toney called wildfires caused by utilities absolutely preventable. He is executive director of the ratepayer group The Utility Reform Network in California. It is pushing PG&E to insulate its lines in high-risk areas.

“We have to stop utility-caused wildfires. We have to stop them and the quickest, cheapest way to do it is to insulate the overhead lines,” he said.

As for the poles, in a 2019 Hawaiian Electric regulatory document, the company said its 60,000 poles, nearly all wood, were vulnerable because they were already old and Hawaii is in a “severe wood decay hazard zone.” The company said it had fallen behind in replacing wood poles because of other priorities and warned of a “serious public hazard” if the poles “failed.”

The document said many of the company’s poles were built to withstand 56 mph (90 kph), when a Category 1 Hurricane has winds of at least 74 mph.

In 2002, the National Electric Safety Code was updated to require utility poles like those on Maui to withstand 105 mile per hour winds.

The U.S. electrical grid was designed and built for last century’s climate, said Joshua Rhodes, an energy systems research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin. Utilities would be smart to better prepare for protracted droughts and high winds, he added.

“Everyone considers Hawaii to be a tropical paradise, but it got dry and it burned,” he said Thursday. “It may look expensive if you’re doing work to stave off starting wildfires or the impact of wildfires, but it’s much cheaper than actually starting one and burning down so many people’s homes and causing so many people’s deaths.”

Tony Takitani, an attorney born and raised on Maui, is working with Morgan on the litigation.

Takitani said in his 68 years there, it’s getting drier and drier. He said what happened on the island is so horrific it’s hard to talk about. But he does think it will force improvements to the grid.

“When the poles go down, it’s kindling,” he said. “The combination of what’s going on with our Earth and people not being properly prepared for it, I think caused this. From living here, from the videos I’ve seen of poles going down and fires igniting, it seems kind of obvious.”

ETHIOPIAN IMPERIALISM

Head of Ethiopia's crisis-hit Amhara region resigns

NOT A NATION A CONFEDERATION

AFP
Fri, August 25, 2023 

Map of Ethiopia locating Amhara region and the town of Finote Selam. 

(Kun TIAN)

The head of Ethiopia's violence-stricken region of Amhara, which the federal government has placed under a state of emergency, has stepped down, according to an official statement reported Friday.

Amhara's parliament "has accepted the resignation submitted by the regional president, Dr. Yilkal Kefale, and appointed Arega Kebede in replacement," the body said in a statement reported by the official Amhara Media Corporation.

The resignation on Wednesday came after the legislature, known as the Regional Council, discussed "the region's current security situation", it said.

"After the discussion a consensus agreement was reached (on the need) for consistent reform," it said.

Tension in the northern region ratcheted up this year after the end of a devastating war in the neighbouring region of Tigray that also drew in fighters from Amhara.

In April the federal government announced it was dismantling regional forces across the country.

The move triggered protests by Amhara nationalists who said it would weaken their region.

Clashes erupted in early July between the national army and local fighters known as Fano, prompting the authorities in Addis Ababa on August 4 to declare a six-month state of emergency.

The Ethiopian Human Rights Commission (EHRC), an independent state-affiliated organisation, on August 14 said heavy fighting had subsided in major urban areas on August 9 but was continuing in other parts of the region.

The military leadership set in place in Amhara under the state of emergency said on August 23 that the situation had "returned to normal conditions" thanks to "measures taken during the second and third phase of military operations."

"The general command gave strict order to continue the military operation in order to strengthen and secure the peace and stability," it said.

The situation in Amhara is impossible to verify on the ground, as the federal authorities restrict access to the region.

The toll from the fighting remains unclear, but the EHRC has voiced concern over civilian casualties from the use of heavy artillery.

Doctors in two of the affected cities told AFP in early August that there had been scores of deaths and injuries among civilians.

On August 13, at least 26 people in the town of Finote Selam died in an air strike, a hospital official and local resident told AFP.

A mosaic of more than 80 ethno-linguistic communities, Ethiopia has struggled territorial conflicts within its borders.

It is structured as a federal republic, comprising 12 regional states that are arranged on ethnic and linguistic lines, and two administrative councils, which includes Addis Ababa.

The Amhara region is inhabited mostly by the Amhara people, the country's second most populous ethnic group.

The Regional Council, which is dominated by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party, had appointed Yilkal, an academic, in October 2021. His successor is a relative unknown on the political scene.

ayv/sva/ri/giv

Democrats accuse tax prep firms of undermining new IRS effort on electronic free file tax returns

FATIMA HUSSEIN
Updated Fri, August 25, 2023 



, H&R Block signs are displayed in Jackson, Miss. Congressional Democrats are accusing big tax preparation firms including Intuit and H&R Block of undermining the federal government's upcoming electronic free-file tax return system, and are demanding lobbying, hiring and revenue data to determine what's going on.

 (AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis, File)

WASHINGTON (AP) — Congressional Democrats are accusing big tax preparation firms including Intuit and H&R Block of undermining the federal government's upcoming electronic free file tax return system and are demanding lobbying, hiring and revenue data to determine what's going on.

The lawmakers accuse the companies of lobbying against the new program, hiring former government workers to sway public interest against free file for all, and deliberately sabotaging a government program that had previously offered free tax prep services, according to letters obtained by The Associated Press.

On Thursday, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., and Rep. Katie Porter, D-Calif., sent letters to the executives of Intuit, H&R Block, the American Coalition for Taxpayer Rights and the Free File Alliance, a group of tax preparation companies that provide free online services through the IRS website.

Warren and Porter are seeking specifics on the amount of money firms have made since being members of the Free File Alliance and information on the number of former government workers who’ve joined their firms in the past two years.

“Tax prep companies have engaged in a long and aggressive lobbying campaign to prevent the IRS from offering taxpayers a direct filing option,” the lawmakers' letter to Intuit CEO Sasan K. Goodarzi reads.

Derrick Plummer, an Intuit spokesman, said his firm will respond to the lawmakers' letter, adding that taxpayers already have the ability to file taxes free of charge. “An IRS Direct File system is redundant and will not be free — not free to build, not free to operate, and not free for taxpayers," he said.

Plummer said a free-file system built by the government "is a solution in search of a problem, and that solution will unnecessarily cost taxpayers billions of dollars.”

An H&R Block spokesperson also said that there are free file options for taxpayers and that the “IRS should focus additional funding on improving its existing services for taxpayers.”

An agreement with the Free File Alliance prevented the IRS from creating its own free tax return filing system in exchange for the companies providing free services to taxpayers making $73,000 or less annually, but the agreement's key provision ended in 2019. Tax experts and government reports say the program largely failed to reach its intended audience, with only 3% of eligible taxpayers using it.

The IRS in May announced that it would launch a pilot program for the 2024 filing season to allow taxpayers to file directly to the agency for free. If the effort is successful it could be implemented nationwide in the future, potentially saving taxpayers the added cost of going through a tax prep company.

As it moves forward under the helm of new IRS Commissioner Daniel Werfel, groups on both sides of the issue have mobilized to sway the public and Congress over the usefulness of the program.

An April analysis by the AP found that Intuit, H&R Block and other private companies and advocacy groups for large tax preparation businesses, as well as proponents of electronic free file, have reported spending $39.3 million since 2006 to lobby on free file and other matters. Federal law doesn’t require domestic lobbyists to itemize expenses by issue, so the sums are not limited to free file.

Tim Hugo, executive director of the Free File Alliance, said Friday in an email to the AP that his organization “does not lobby, does not hire lobbyists, has not hired lobbyists in the past, and has never had a PAC.”

And David D. Ransom, counsel for the American Coalition for Taxpayer Rights, said by email that the new IRS free file program will not be free and easy to implement and that the U.S. tax code is too complex for the planned free file program to be successful.

“Proponents of Direct File often suggest that we ought to have tax administration systems that are like those in Denmark or Estonia,” he said. “We deliver social benefits through our tax code; most European countries do not.”

In July, a group of congressional Democrats, including Warren and Porter, released a report that outlined how three large tax preparation firms — H&R Block, TaxAct and TaxSlayer — sent “extraordinarily sensitive” information on tens of millions of taxpayers to Facebook parent company Meta and Google over the course of at least two years. TaxAct and H&R Block said protecting client privacy is a top priority, and TaxSlayer said the report contained false or misleading statements. Meta said it was clear in its policies that advertisers “should not send sensitive information about people through our Business Tools.”

In a letter to the heads of the IRS, the Department of Justice, the Federal Trade Commission and the IRS watchdog, the lawmakers said their findings “reveal a shocking breach of taxpayer privacy by tax prep companies and by Big Tech firms" — and cited the report as an argument for the creation of a government-run free file system.

"Tax prep companies simply cannot be trusted with taxpayers’ sensitive personal and financial information," states the Thursday letter to H&R Block CEO Jeff Jones.

The IRS was tasked with looking into how to create a “direct file” system as part of the funding it received from the Inflation Reduction Act, Democrats’ flagship climate and health care measure, which President Joe Biden signed last summer. It gave the IRS nine months and $15 million to report on how such a program would be implemented.

The report’s initial cost analysis shows an option run by the IRS “could cost less than $10 per return to provide, and of course would be free to taxpayers — by comparison, simple electronic filing options currently available to taxpayers are around $40.”

The study estimates that annual costs of direct file may range, depending on the program’s usage and scope, from $64 million for 5 million users to $249 million for 25 million users.

Sugar in India’s Key Growing Areas Under Threat From Poor Rain

Pratik Parija
Fri, August 25, 2023 





(Bloomberg) -- Sugar crops in some of India’s major growing regions are in desperate need of rain as drier conditions threaten the production outlook, which may place more pressure on containing rising food costs.

Rainfall is badly needed to replenish groundwater used for irrigating crops in Maharashtra, Sanjay Khatal, the managing director of the Maharashtra State Co-Operative Sugar Factories Federation Ltd., said in an interview. The state is India’s biggest sugar producer, accounting for about 37% of output.

“At the moment, the crop is at risk, but if rains improve in the balance period of the monsoon season, then the situation will take a turn for the better,” he said. Some parts of Maharashtra have received as much as 20% less rain than normal since the start of the season, according to the weather bureau.

A smaller crop could prompt the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi to curb exports to prevent a surge in domestic prices ahead of elections early next year, similar to the measures India has already implemented on rice. Maharashtra’s Khatal said it’s too early to make a prediction about sugar production given there is more than a month before the monsoon ends.

The Indian government will make a decision about overseas sugar shipments for 2023-24 when actual estimates of total production are available, according to the food ministry.

The South Asian nation is the world’s second biggest producer after Brazil, and any production shortfall and subsequent export ban could reverberate across markets, boosting sugar futures traded in New York and London. India allowed mills to export about 6.1 million tons in 2022-23, compared with 11 million tons a year earlier after late rains reduced yields and cut output.

The New York contract, which climbed for a third day after reversing losses, is headed for a 2.3% weekly gain.

“There aren’t any talks with the government on sugar exports at present,” said Aditya Jhunjhunwala, president of the Indian Sugar Mills Association. “We will assess the crop after monsoon season is over in September and approach the government on allowing exports after that,” he said, adding there will be enough supplies next season to meet domestic demand.


The group estimates production at 31.7 million tons in 2023-24 and domestic consumption at 27.5 million tons, leaving a surplus of 4.2 million tons. India’s planted sugar cane area was at 5.61 million hectares (13.9 million acres) as of Friday, little changed from a year earlier, according to the farm ministry.

Lower Rainfall

Even though 94% of India’s sugar cane area is irrigated, rains are needed during the monsoon from June to September to fill dams, ponds, wells and replenish ground water. Some areas of Karnataka have received as much as 27% less rainfall so far, while in Uttar Pradesh, rains have been mixed.

Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Karnataka account for more than 80% of India’s sugar cane production, according to the agriculture ministry. As of Thursday, water storage in the country’s 146 main reservoirs was 21% less than a year earlier, according to the state-run Central Water Commission.

The harvest in Karnataka, the third biggest producer, will likely fall by 20% in the year starting October due to less rain, according to Shivanand H. Kalakeri, the state’s commissioner for cane development and director of sugar.

“We have asked mills to start a little late next season as the crop needs some more time to mature,” Kalakeri said. Factories normally begin crushing in the middle of October, Kalakeri said.

https://plawiuk.blogspot.com/2023/08/worlds-largest-sugar-producer-india-to.html

https://sidneymintz.net/sugar.php

Sugar - Sidney Mintz 

Sugar, or sucrose (C12H22O11), is manufactured photosynthetically by green plants. We humans can't make sugar. The best we can do is to extract it, and change ...

SWEETNESS AND POWER 

MINTZ.pdf 

Billionaire Ray Dalio says India’s moon landing is another sign of its ‘ascendence’—and predicts stellar growth for its economy


Steve Mollman
Sat, August 26, 2023

Billionaire Ray Dalio believes India is the next big investment opportunity. The nation’s historic moon landing this week only strengthened his conviction.

On Wednesday, India successfully landed a spacecraft on the lunar south pole, thought to be the moon’s richest region for water. Just days earlier, Russia had failed in its attempt to become the first country to land a craft there.

India’s rover will now look for water, which could be a source of oxygen and fuel for future missions—or lead to a moon colony.

“This success belongs to all of humanity,” Indian prime minister Narendra Modi said during a webcast of the event.

“India's successful lunar mission…is another one of many straws in the wind showing its ascendence,” wrote Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, in a post on X.

He noted that India tops his “health index for countries”—where he projects 10-year growth rates for nations—with an estimated 7% growth rate.

India has “the right mix of ingredients that shows that it has great potential and the right leadership to catalyze it,” he added.

In June, Dalio described Modi as “a man whose time has come when India’s time has also come. He and India are in an analogous position to Deng Xiaoping and China in the early 1980s—i.e., at the brink of the fastest growth rates and biggest transformations in the world.”

With tensions simmering between the U.S. and China, he noted, Modi is “in a unique position to influence the complexion of the world order via influencing the non-aligned world's dealings with these two leading world powers. I believe that Modi has what it takes to have the greatest impact on the largest number of people in the world at a time that the risks of harmful impact are greater than at any time in our lifetimes.”

Dalio is somewhat less enthusiastic about China these days. While he’s invested billions into Chinese companies, he said earlier this month that it’s time for China to “engineer” a massive restructuring of its debt. But “there isn’t a country I know of that hasn’t done this, typically several times,” he noted.

Meanwhile some big names share Dalio’s enthusiasm for India. Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently said his electric-vehicle maker would establish a presence in the nation “as soon as humanly possible.” And Goldman Sachs predicted last month that India would become the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, surpassing the U.S.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

UPDATE 1-

Chinese minister says India free to join RCEP trade bloc

Reuters

Fri, August 25, 2023 

NEW DELHI, Aug 25 (Reuters) - India is free to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China's Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said on Friday in New Delhi, adding that it would boost trade between India and China which is growing "very fast".

The RCEP is the world's largest trade bloc backed by China and groups 15 Asia-Pacific economies, including Australia, Japan, New Zealand and 10 member-states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Relations have soured between the two nuclear-armed neighbours after clashes at a disputed border site in Ladakh in the western Himalayas resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers in June 2020.

Shouwen, speaking during a discussion at the 'Business 20 summit' of G20 member nations, said it was India's decision whether to join the RCEP and that the door was "always open".

India's Trade Minister Piyush Goyal, who chaired the discussion, said trade between India and China is growing but "largely skewed in China's favour".

Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to China's President Xi Jinping about India's concerns over unresolved border issues on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg this week.

Both sides agreed to intensify efforts to disengage and de-escalate, India's foreign secretary told reporters on Thursday.

Xi told Modi that improving China-India relations served the interests of the two countries and was conducive to peace, stability, and development, according to China's official Xinhua news agency, which said the meeting was at Modi's request. (Reporting by Shivangi Acharya; Writing by Shivam Patel; Editing by Kirsten Donovan)

Toronto program encourages hijab-wearing women to get on two wheels

Anna Mehler Paperny
Sat, August 26, 2023 









Community program Hijabs and Helmets aims to provide education and a welcoming environment toward people new to cycling

By Anna Mehler Paperny

TORONTO (Reuters) - For Tagreed Elhassan it's the feeling of the wind in her face.

Cycling gives her a sense of independence and a way to exercise. She learned the basics growing up in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and now a program in her new home of Toronto has taught the 24-year-old Eritrean refugee how to steer and basic bike mechanics, giving her the confidence to teach others.

"I learned it here," she said, sitting in a park in Toronto's east end. "Small things that grow into something big."

Hijabs and Helmets aims to provide education and a welcoming environment toward people new to cycling and the city - especially to Muslim women who may come from backgrounds where cycling was not the norm.

The program was created three years ago to meet a community need, said Menna Badawi, a community health worker at Access Alliance Multicultural Health & Community Services and program lead for Hijabs and Helmets.

It gets most of its funding from Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment, which owns Toronto sports teams including the Maple Leafs ice hockey team and the Raptors basketball team.

The group realized "there was a gap in services for Muslim women in the community ... who are interested in cycling and kind of don't know where to go," Badawi said.

Badawi, who has been part of an all-women Muslim running club, said she understood the feeling.

"As a Muslim hijabi I did find there was a gap in recreational sports for women who look like me," she said.

The group serves Toronto's Taylor Creek area, which has a high proportion of newcomers, Badawi said.

Elhassan said she got involved in the program last year with her sisters. Soon she felt comfortable enough to bike to the supermarket, bags balanced on handlebars.

The deliberate inclusion of hijab-wearing women "means a lot," Elhassan said. "I felt like, oh, we are recognized."

(Reporting by Anna Mehler Paperny, Editing by Rosalba O'Brien)

Canadian minister makes rare China trip for talks on climate, biodiversity

Steve Scherer
Sat, August 26, 2023 


Canada's Minister of the Environment and Climate Change Steven Guilbeault speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa

By Steve Scherer

OTTAWA (Reuters) - Canada's Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault on Saturday leaves for Beijing to join talks on fighting climate change and preserving biodiversity, the first Canadian minister to go to China in four years.

A month ago, U.S. climate envoy John Kerry visited China for similar discussions. Other G7 countries including France and Germany have also sent climate representatives since COVID-19 travel restrictions were lifted.

"I'm hoping that we can have open and frank conversations about a number of issues relating to climate change," Guilbeault told Reuters on Friday. Both Canada and China are large emitters and "maybe there are ways we can cooperate", he said.

Guilbeault, a former advocate for environmental groups including Greenpeace, will attend the annual meeting of the China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development (CCICED), an climate advisory group to the Chinese government, from Aug. 28-30.

Guilbeault said two important issues he wants to bring up are methane emissions reductions and a global renewable energy target, which is being discussed ahead of the United Nations climate change conference later this year.

"There's a lot of low hanging fruits in terms of methane emission," he said. "This is a conversation we can have with the Chinese government and... maybe we could work on that together."

Guilbeault said he also wants to follow up on a U.N. nature summit hosted by Canada and presided over by China late last year, which culminated in a global deal to protect the ecosystems that prop up half the world economy.

Canada is seeking China's cooperation on the climate despite tensions, including recent allegations that Beijing interfered in the last two federal elections, and after a long standoff involving two Canadian men that ended in 2021.

Chinese authorities took two men, Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig, into custody in December 2018 shortly after Canadian police detained Meng Wanzhou, the chief financial officer of Chinese telecoms equipment giant Huawei Technologies Co Ltd, on a U.S. warrant.

The men were released on the same day in September 2021 when the U.S. Justice Department dropped its extradition request for Meng and she returned to China.

(Reporting by Steve Scherer; Editing by David Gregorio)

Trump, Biden policies shifted trade from China at a cost, study shows


Sat, August 26, 2023
By Howard Schneider

JACKSON HOLE, Wyoming (Reuters) - U.S. trade has shifted away from China due to policies enacted by the Biden and Trump administrations, but U.S. reliance on China-linked supply chains has not necessarily been reduced and consumers have faced higher costs, according to new research presented on Saturday at a Federal Reserve economic symposium.

Despite deglobalization fears after the coronavirus pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, overall trade "has held steady at just under 60% of world (gross domestic product)rather than gone into freefall," Laura Alfaro, an economist at Harvard Business School, and Davin Chor, an associate professor at the Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth, concluded in their paper, which was presented at the annual gathering of central bankers and economists in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

But U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, recently enacted industrial policies, and the pandemic, do seem to have touched off a "'great reallocation' in supply chain activity: Direct US sourcing from China has decreased," from 21.6% of U.S. imports as of 2016 to 16.5% last year, Alfaro and Chor wrote.

What's less certain is what that means, with the authors saying the shift from China is raising prices for consumers without clearly providing offsetting benefits in the form of, for example, improved manufacturing efficiency in the U.S.

It is not even certain that the decline in China's U.S. import share represents a true delinking, they said.

Vietnam and Mexico, for example, appear to have captured much of the reallocated trade, the authors said, based on an analysis of goods import and export patterns, while an increase in U.S. purchases of less processed goods from abroad was "indicative of some reshoring of production stages."

And among companies, they said, "concerns are being voiced over the wisdom of sprawling supply chains that can expose firms and countries to the risk of disruptions," from events like the pandemic or severe weather, or policy shocks like tariffs.

Yet in the background, the researchers noted that China had "stepped up" its trade and investment activity with Vietnam and Mexico, as well as other countries.

"The U.S. could well remain indirectly connected to China through its trade and global value chain links with these third-party countries," they argued.

Prices for goods from some countries, moreover, were beginning to rise.

"The recent policy restrictions to shift sourcing patterns or even to encourage substitution toward domestic inputs are poised to add to wage and cost pressures in the U.S.," the research found, a pointed conclusion as the Fed tries to lower inflation by slowing the U.S. economy.

(Reporting by Howard Schneider; Editing by Paul Simao)

Tech war: Biden's decree zaps lucrative investments in China's chip and AI sectors

South China Morning Post
Sat, August 26, 2023 

It is most likely that China's largest chip foundry, a key piece of the puzzle in Beijing's efforts to achieve greater self-sufficiency in semiconductors, would not have been able to set up its first plant in Shanghai's suburbs in the early 2000s without funding from American investors such as Walden International and Goldman Sachs.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) is just one of many Chinese firms that received US venture capital funding from investors seeking extraordinary returns from China's economic take-off, a bold example of the marriage of domestic technological ambition with adventurous American funds.

However, amid rising geopolitical tensions between the world's two biggest economies and the implementation of tough US investment curbs, prospects for such collaboration in future have dimmed, dealing a direct blow to China's ambitions to become a global power in artificial intelligence (AI). Industry insiders and analysts say the withdrawal of financial support and technical expertise is a game-changer.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

"The damage is done in the sense that a lot of people will be scared away from the China market", said Ben Harburg, managing partner at MSA Capital, a Beijing-based venture capital fund. "We will avoid sectors that we think are at risk or may fall foul of current or future US sanctions," said Harburg in a recent interview with the Post.

MSA Capital manages US dollar funds with capital from sovereign wealth funds, international asset managers and pension funds, as well as Chinese entrepreneurs.

With more investors like MSA Capital trying to dodge the sanctions bullet, the backers of these funds will also have to rethink their China strategies given rising geopolitical acrimony.

Elton Jiang, founding partner at Shanghai-based Genilink Capital which backs chip start-up Black Sesame Technologies among others, said American investors will not only stop putting money into certain sectors but may also divest from companies in existing portfolios to comply with new restrictions.

Jiang added that the biggest disruption from new investment restrictions will be the deterrence factor for potential investors in China.

While US dollar limited partners (LPs) - the investors who back venture funds without being involved in day-to-day management - come from all over the world, including America, the Middle East and Southeast Asia, "historically LPs from the US account for the most significant share of all types of dollar LPs," said Jiang. "The investment restrictions will make the LPs have second thoughts about allocating any money to China."

In August, the Biden administration unveiled an executive order aimed at restricting US venture capital and private equity investments in Chinese companies involved in semiconductors, microelectronics, quantum technologies and AI systems.

Washington's move to screen outbound investments came as American venture capital money was already drying up in the Chinese market, according to analysts at independent market research firm Rhodium Group. Its data shows that US backing of China start-ups plunged to a 10-year-low last year to US$1.27 billion, well down from a peak of US$14.4 billion in 2018.

While the tougher restrictions were largely anticipated by the global investment community, practitioners said that the announcement has been the final nail in the coffin for investment in the sanctioned sectors.

Kaidi Gao, an analyst at investment data service Pitchbook, said some of the largest LPs - such as pension funds on the private equity side - have now pulled back completely from fresh investment in China.

A recent report by investment research firm Preqin showed that China-focused VC funds raised US$2.7 billion from April to June, a plunge of 54.2 per cent from the previous quarter. Meanwhile, for sectors like semiconductors, funding has long been migrating to local yuan funds, according to local industry experts.

The Chinese founder of a memory controller chip design firm, who asked not to be identified due to the sensitivity of the matter, told the Post on his return from a fundraising trip, that many small Chinese chip start-ups aim to supply state-backed companies when their products are ready or they go public on the mainland's tech-heavy STAR market. In this situation, "taking US money would send a bad signal in either case", he said.
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An AI chip from Tongfu Microelectronics is displayed during the World Semiconductor Congress in Nanjing in China's eastern Jiangsu province on July 19, 2023. 

That comment echoes remarks made at the 2023 China Semiconductor Equipment Annual Conference (CSEAC) earlier this month, where an investor from venture capital fund Fountain Bridge Capital said they have long separated US funds and yuan funds for investment targets in China's semiconductor industry, with the latter the only way to currently invest in the sector.

The semiconductor sector has always been a special case, with long investment horizons and high risks due to its asset-heavy profile.

The sector used to be shunned by private money until China's self-sufficiency drive intensified due to increased tensions with Washington. Many Chinese private equity and venture capital funds were seen chasing executives at CSEAC to talk about investment opportunities.

To date the state-backed China Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, also known as the Big Fund, has been the main vehicle for the Chinese government to pump money into the chip sector. The first phase of the fund raised US$19.7 billion with the second raising about US$30 billion, and it has made multiple bets on Chinese semiconductor companies since its creation in September 2014.

It is difficult to estimate the overall subsidy package extended by Beijing and local governments to the domestic chip industry, as many forms of grants are not necessarily handed out in cash terms.

The memory controller chip founder said the city government of Zhengzhou, capital of central Henan province, wants to have skin in the game by providing cheap land parcels, factory facilities and even by paying for some equipment rather than through direct investments, as some of their financial vehicles have been damaged by China's patchy economy.

However, for some industry practitioners, local yuan funding can never make up for the loss of US dollar funds, which typically have a long investment maturity and high-risk tolerance.

One Shanghai-based investor, who also requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, said a strength of US dollar funds is their ability to back high-risk projects, setting them apart from many yuan funds that take money from so-called government guidance funds, which are typically more risk averse. Local currency funds are less likely to invest in early projects with no income, added the investor.

In a recent round-table discussion, Duane Kuang Ziping, founding and managing partner at China-based Qiming Venture Partners, said US dollar funds have a preference for risky projects that have the potential to generate outsized returns.

"Using graphics processing units (GPU) as an example, RMB funds would not bet on GPU projects until the world's first GPU start-up has been validated [for its potential]," Kuang said in dialogue with Yang Xiaolei, CEO at local investment intelligence service China Venture, according to an article published by the firm.

Kuang also said that despite the current ChatGPT frenzy in China - which has seen local firms rush to compete with OpenAI's breakthrough generative AI product, RMB funds would never have backed a research lab like OpenAI in the first place. This is because yuan funds will not take a risk if the development pattern and growth path are not already clear, he said.

With tougher US investment restrictions now in place, this poses a particular problem for those Chinese start-ups looking to replicate or exceed OpenAI's success with its ChatGPT chatbot, which can provide human-like responses to user questions.

The Shanghai-based investor said although the hype surrounding China's generative AI sector is still gathering steam, there are fundamental obstacles to turning a potential ChatGPT competitor into a profitable business.

The last batch of Chinese AI giants, such as SenseTime and Megvii, had a sizeable share of revenue coming from government orders or subsidies. But the Chinese government has not shown an equal amount of love for the generative AI sector, which will also be subject to the country's strict online censorship regime.

To date, all domestically-developed AI chat bots are still in the public testing phase, and no company has yet been given the green light to roll out their products to the public on a commercial basis.

On the business side, companies have been beta-testing their AI bots in traditional industries to improve efficiency and lower costs. But the financial case has yet to be proven.

iFlyTek, a Chinese AI firm that said it had surpassed the capacity of OpenAI's ChatGPT in October, saw its net income fall 74 per cent in the first half from a year earlier. The revenue plunge came months after the Anhui, Hefei-based company launched its ChatGPT-like bot SparkDesk in early May, trumpeting its integration into a wide range of traditional industries.

Baidu, which unveiled its Ernie Bot earlier this year, had a strong second quarter with revenue growth of 15 per cent, but financial details related to its generative AI efforts are scant.

Co-founder, chairman and CEO Robin Li Yanhong said in the earnings call that generative AI "holds immense transformative power in numerous industries, presenting a significant market opportunity" for the company, without disclosing how much revenue it has made from the service.

Despite the hazy financials, generative AI remains a hot sector for investors.

"The AI leaders are mainly in China and the US ... where the technologies are mostly being created and the leading companies are going to be," said Jeffrey Towson, a partner at research firm TechMoat Consulting. "There is a lot of capital in the world. But only two big epicentres for AI."

But as the geopolitical storm continues to gather for US investors in China, it seems increasingly likely that they will steer clear.

Long-time SMIC investor Walden International has watched as the foundry delisted from the New York Stock Exchange in 2019 after 15 years of trading and floated its shares in Shanghai the following year.

The Big Fund and local firms such as Datang Telecom Technology as well as China Information and Communication Technology Group among other state-affiliated firms, have since emerged as some of SMIC's biggest backers, according to the company's latest annual report.

Meanwhile, the San Francisco-based firm has just received a letter from the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party expressing "serious concern" and probing its investments in Chinese tech start-ups.

Copyright (c) 2023. South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

Japan prepares shape-shifting Moon rover for launch after Indian success

Julian Ryall
Sat, August 26, 2023 

The probe has been dubbed the ‘Moon Sniper’ due to the precision

with which it is meant to hit its landing target - Jaxa

Japan is preparing to fire the latest shot in the intensifying international space race with the launch on Monday of its “Moon Sniper” lander mission.

A domestically built H2-A rocket is scheduled to take off from southern Japan on Sunday night, carrying a lander module that is expected to reach the lunar surface in four to six months.

The rocket, the launch of which has been pushed back due to poor weather, will also deploy an x-ray imaging satellite.

Earlier this week, India completed the historic landing of a craft near the lunar south, becoming only the fourth nation to achieve a so-called soft-landing on the Moon after the United States, Russia and China.

Japan’s hopes of keeping up in the race to exploit the Moon’s resources are now focused on the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon (Slim), although the probe has been dubbed the “Moon Sniper” due to the precision with which it is meant to hit its landing target.

Less than 8ft high and weighing 1,545lbs, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (Jaxa) is aiming to land its spacecraft within 300ft of its target on the surface, significantly better than the mile or more that is traditionally regarded as an accurate touch-down. The agency plans to put the probe down in the Sea of Nectar, in the lower latitudes of the near side of the Moon.

Jaxa is aiming to put the Smart Lander for Investigating Moon probe in the Sea of Nectar, in the lower latitudes of the near side of the Moon - AFP/Getty

“This is part of the space race, the race to find water in the form of ice near the polar regions“, said Kazuto Suzuki, a professor of science and technology policy at Tokyo University.

“But the primary purpose of this mission is to demonstrate the technology and techniques required to safely and accurately land on the Moon,” he said. “That is extremely difficult to do, partly because of the six-second delay in communications between control here on Earth and the lander, as we have seen recently with the Russian craft.”

The mission will also use a palm-sized, shape-shifting mini-rover developed with a toy company to investigate how the Moon was formed by examining exposed pieces of the lunar mantle.

The SORA-Q robot will unfold like a Transformer, splitting in half and exposing a pair of cameras and dividing its two hemispheres into wheels before springing into action.

Japan’s space programme has not been immune to failure, with communications lost with Jaxa’s Moon-lander Omotenashi in November last year. The first attempt by a private company to land a craft on the Moon also fell short in April, with J-Space saying its probe was damaged in a “hard landing”.

Rockets have also experienced problems, with a next-generation H3 model failing shortly after lift-off in March and an Epsilon rocket similarly destroyed five months previously. A ground test of an Epsilon S solid rocket motor last month ended in a devastating explosion after 50 seconds.

Jaxa is nevertheless undeterred from its mission, said Prof Suzuki, and the Slim mission is seen as a building-block for further exploration of our solar system.

“Currently it is Russia and China that are trying to establish a permanent base on the surface of the Moon, which is why they are searching for water in the polar regions, but Japan is allied with the US on its Artemis project,” he said.

Amish communities are adapting a surprising new technology in their homes and farms: ‘It’s really taken off’

Erin Feiger
Sat, August 26, 2023 

Amish barns and solar panels are probably not two things most people think of as going together, but times are changing. Anabaptist World recently reported that Amish communities are starting to adopt solar as their source of power.

It’s a long-held misconception that the Amish use no electricity at all. Instead, most of them simply believe that relying heavily on electricity or access to public power grids will tie them too closely to the rest of the world.

Some Amish people have used gas and diesel generators to produce electricity and candles or kerosene lamps to light their homes. However, as solar panel technology improves and prices drop, these generators and lamps are becoming less attractive.

For the Amish, solar power allows access to clean, renewable energy while remaining off-grid. The shift benefits the environment as well.

Burning kerosene, like burning all dirty energy, releases carbon dioxide. Kerosene lamps also produce black carbon, which absorbs light and heats its surroundings.

According to the Climate & Clean Air Coalition, mass black carbon has a per-unit warming impact on climate that can be up to 1,500 times stronger than carbon dioxide.

Burning kerosene also comes with severe health risks and can damage the lungs and increase asthma and cancer risks. Exposure to diesel exhaust can also cause serious health conditions like asthma and respiratory illnesses and can worsen existing heart and lung disease.

Switching to solar eliminates all of this, although the trend is still fairly recent in Amish communities.

“We really didn’t see a lot of adoption until 2015 or maybe even later … In the last four years, it’s really taken off,” Mark Horst, the owner of King Solar in Kansas, told Anabaptist World.

But many believe the technology will continue to gain popularity.

“For a commercial scale — say a chicken house with feed lines or power tools in a shop — 15 years ago, technology wasn’t there to power that … It’s changing faster than ever now,” James Mast, founder of ARK Battery in Ohio, told Anabaptist World.