What would it take to make aviation green in the EU?

Ella Joyner in Strasbourg

DW
22 hours ago

Most Europeans have heard of "flight shaming," and now the EU hopes green jet fuel will be the answer to aviation emissions. The bloc has set ambitious production targets, but not everyone is sold.

Climate activists frequently hit out at the aviation sector for inaction in cutting emissions

 Piroschka van de Wouw/REUTERS


The peak vacation season of July and August is traditionally a chance for people in Europe to get away from it all. But with more frequent, intense wildfires and blistering heatwaves shaping summer in southern Europe, the climate crisis is getting pretty hard to ignore — even on the beach.

More and more people are thinking about the environmental impact of travel, particularly the real cost of a budget airline ticket.

With the dream of next-generation battery or liquid-hydrogen planes still likely decades away — at least for widespread commercial use — many governments are focussing for now on developing less environmentally harmful fuel to use in existing aircraft as a means of cleaning up a notoriously polluting sector.

Electric planes like this one made by Rolls Royce may look cool, but they are not ready to replace commercial fleets

Cover-Images/imago images

EU: 70% sustainable aviation fuel by 2050

The European Union has set its eye on boosting the production of sustainable aviation fuel, currently much more expensive than conventional fossil kerosene and very short in supply.

On Wednesday, the European Parliament is expected to formally approve a 70% target for the share of so-called green aviation fuel by 2050 at EU airports. The rules would increase the green aviation fuel requirements from 2% in 2025 to 6% in 2030 and 20% in 2035 and increase gradually to 70% in 2050. Less than 1% of aviation fuel is currently from sustainable sources.

The EU lawmaker leading negotiations, centrist Spanish politician Jose Ramon Bauza Diaz, called it a potential "revolution" and a "tremendous step towards decarbonization of the aviation sector" at a press conference in the French city of Strasbourg on Tuesday.

Bauz Diaz told reporters he hoped for an "overwhelming majority" in Wednesday's vote. The basic deal was signed off in April by negotiators representing the European Commission, the EU legislature and the 27 member states.

What is green aviation fuel and how green is it really?

The changes would oblige aviation fuel producers — major fossil fuel companies like Shell, Total and others — to change what they supply to EU airports or potentially risk penalties. The rules also would require flights taking off in the EU not to carry more fuel than needed to prevent them from stocking up in cheaper markets with laxer rules and the additional emissions of flying with higher fuel weights.

Of the final, mid-century 70% target, half should be biofuels, for example from used cooking oil or farming and forestry waste, Camille Mutrelle of Brussels-based advocacy group Transport & Environment explained. The remainder would be synthetic fuels, which are produced by harnessing renewable energy in liquid form, she told DW.

In reality, neither of these is straightforward in terms of minimizing climate harm, Mutrelle added. Biofuels are associated with massive land use if not collected from waste products and the production of synthetic fuels is currently extremely energy intensive.

"The amount of energy you can use is enormous," She said. "That raises a lot of questions when it comes to how the renewable energy that is available will have to be distributed between sectors and what share aviation gets."

Experts question whether e-fuel production will develop fast enough to meet climate goals

 Marijan Murat/dpa/picture alliance

With many industries vying for limited sources of cleaner energy to keep their businesses running in line with ever tighter EU laws, the question is whether there will be enough to go around — particularly for power-hungry endeavors like e-kerosene to fuel planes.

While the automotive industry is betting heavily on electric vehicles, the maritime shipping sector may also turn to sustainable fuel in the future.

Nonetheless, this legislation — first proposed by the European Commission in 2021 as part of its plan to make the EU "climate neutral" by the middle of the century, necessitating a 90%-reduction in transport emissions, among a raft of other measures — is an important step, according to Mutrelle, who called it "a great opportunity for aviation to decarbonize."

Where's it going to come from?

For the Transport & Environment advocacy group, the bigger problem is whether enough sustainable fuel, particularly biofuel, can be produced. "It seems, at least to us, extremely unrealistic to believe that 35% of the fuel uplifted in 2050 will be derived from biomass," Mutrelle said.

At present, the production of sustainable aviation fuels is minimal. In Europe, projects are concentrated in France, Germany, Denmark, Sweden, Norway and the United Kingdom.

"There are a lot of projects on the table, but none of them is a done deal," Mutrelle said, adding that the new legislation could help set the tone and encourage the sector's development.

However, imposing targets isn't the same as offering production incentives.

"A true sustainable aviation fuel industrial policy is missing in Europe," she stressed, comparing the situation to the United States, where tax incentives were offered under the Inflation Reduction Act investment spree.
Even if it works, will it be enough?

Although aviation is responsible for about 2% of the worldwide greenhouse gas emissions, the European Commission reported if global aviation emissions were a country, it would rank in the top 10 emitters. It is also fast-growing, having doubled greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2017. Aviation emissions have increased by an average of 5% year-on-year between 2013 and 2019, the Commission said.

Are new green fuels the cleaner future of flying?  11:40

Two years ago, the International Air Transport Association, a trade body representing the world's airlines, made synthetic fuels 65% of its plan to go "net zero" by 2050, along with offsets (19%), while still continuing growth.

The number of commercial flights could increase by as much as 42% by 2040 compared to 2017, according to figures cited by the European Commission.

Stay Grounded, which advocated for reshaping tax and subsidy structures that benefit airline companies, told DW that focusing on such alternative fuels wouldn't help solve the climate crisis.

"The new EU legislation drawing a pathway to substitute 70% of aviation fuels by 2050 by so-called 'green' fuels is no more than greenwashing, to guarantee that aviation continues growing," campaigner Ines Teles told DW in a written statement. "It is absolutely unclear, where the massive amount of biomass (for agrofuels) and renewable energy (for e-fuels) should come from that would be needed to meet those targets."

"The only way to reduce aviation emissions is to reduce flights, and to achieve that we need effective regulations such as progressive taxes and limits," Teles stressed.

Edited by: Sean Sinico

30TH ANNIVERSARY

Israeli-Palestinian Oslo Accords leave a complicated legacy

Tania Krämer
September 12, 2023

Palestinian and Israeli negotiators signed the Oslo Accords, an interim peace agreement, 30 years ago. There's still no lasting peace and the conflict's main issues remain unsolved.

Israel's prime minister Yitzhak Rabin and PLO chairman Yassir Arafat shake hands in Washington on September 13, 1993

Avi Ohayon/GPO

The photo of the handshake between Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat, then-chairman of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO), and Israel's then-Prime Minister Itzhak Rabin seems a distant reality these days.

On September 13, 1993, US President Bill Clinton hosted the two leaders to sign the Declaration of Principles on Interim Arrangements of Self Governance — what came to be known as the Oslo Accords — on the White House lawn in Washington.

The interim agreement created the Palestinian Authority and gave it limited authority over parts of the Israeli-occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip — territories Israel had captured and occupied in the war in 1967. The accords had extended mutual recognition between Israel and the PLO and allowed Arafat, who resided in Tunisia at the time, and other exiled Palestinians to live in the West Bank and Gaza.

In the years following the accord, many Palestinians and Israelis hoped that a lasting and just peace could be achieved between them. But that hope has long faded.
Secret track led to interim agreement

Thirty years on, Yossi Beillin reflects on that era. After the Madrid Peace Conference in October 1991, which brought Israelis, Palestinians and negotiators from other Arab countries together, the Israeli politician initiated contact with members of the PLO.

This led to a secret track of negotiations in the Norwegian capital of Oslo.

"My purpose originally was very modest. From my point of view, it was just a way behind the scenes to put things in order to solve the gaps," Beilin, who became deputy foreign minister under Rabin, told DW.

The track proceeded while Palestinians and Israelis were also officially negotiating in Washington, DC.

In Washington, it was Ghassan Khatib who sat on the Palestinian side of the negotiating table. The Palestinian scholar was part of the group of negotiators from the West Bank and Gaza who were holding official talks with Israeli officials in the US capital. The parallel secret track in Oslo, he told DW, was unknown to the team in Washington.

One issue the two sides fought over in Washington was settlements. The team in Washington insisted that any agreement needed a written commitment by Israel to stop the expansion of settlements.

"That was something Israel did not accept. That's why we didn't reach an agreement," Khatib told DW.

Eventually, it was the secret track in Oslo that led to the interim agreement.

"In Oslo, Israel recognized the PLO and in return, the PLO accepted an agreement without a [written] Israeli commitment to stop the expansion of settlements," said Khatib, who today is a lecturer of international relations at Bir Zeit University in the occupied West Bank.

He sees the settlement issue as one of the main reasons why Oslo didn't succeed.

Meanwhile for Beilin, the main issue remains that Oslo was not a peace treaty but a transitional framework that was supposed to lead to a permanent agreement within five years.

"I don't see myself as the defender of Oslo. Oslo was a tool [towards a permanent treaty], but I am not enthusiastic about interim solutions," said Beilin, who points at successive right-wing governments in Israel that he says were not interested in an agreement. "The failure of Oslo is that we never got to our real target, which was a permanent agreement."

Beilin says that he pushed early on for negotiating a final status, warning Yitzhak Rabin that a five-year period would give extremists on both sides an opportunity to thwart the agreement.

"It would have been very difficult to talk already then about the permanent agreement but not impossible. Maybe we could have saved a lot of time, a lot of casualties on both sides," he said.

Sure enough, there was an escalation from extremists on both sides. Palestinian militant Islamist groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad launched a series of suicide attacks and bombings in which hundreds of Israelis were killed and wounded in the years following the signing of the Oslo Accords. Israel's right-wing opposition staged a series of mass demonstrations against the agreement. In 1994, an Israeli extremist opened fire on Muslim worshippers during Ramadan in the Ibrahimi Mosque in Hebron, killing 29 Palestinians. The violence culminated in the 1995 assassination of Israel's prime minister, Itzhak Rabin, by a Jewish right-wing extremist who opposed the peace process.

Different tracks to reach an agreement

Thirty years later, most Palestinians and Israelis have turned their backs on Oslo.

"Only one third of the [Palestinian] public remain in support of Oslo agreement, while it used to be in the 70% in the weeks and months after signing it," said Khatib, who oversees regular opinion polls among Palestinians.

Palestinians observe that despite signing an agreement, Israel is "still taking more land, settling more settlers and restricting the Palestinians in their confined areas," he added.

That is particularly relevant for the young generation, which has not experienced any substantial attempt to negotiate an agreement.

"They think that Oslo is responsible for many of our difficulties that we are living in," Khatib said.

Jewish housing in the Ma'aleh Adumim settlement in the West Bank: Israel's settlement expansion is still a major issue today

 Debbie Hill/UPI Photo via Newscom/picture alliance

Since the Oslo Accords, Israeli settlements have continued to expand. At the end of 1993, there were about 116,300 Israeli settlers in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, according to Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics.

Israel withdrew all its settlements in Gaza in 2005, but today there are about 700,000 settlers in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem. Israeli settlements in the Palestinian territories are illegal under international law and seen as a major obstacle to any future agreement.

Moreover, the Oslo Accords failed to end Israel's military occupation of the Palestinian Territories, which has now been in place for 56 years, since the 1967 War. The core issues remain unsolved: delineating borders between the two states, the future of the city of Jerusalem, Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and east Jerusalem, the return of Palestinian refugees and security arrangements.

This is reality for young Palestinian Shadha Musallam who heads a start-up. Born in Tunisia to a Palestinian refugee mother from Lebanon and a Palestinian father in exile, who worked as head of office with Palestinian leader Arafat in Tunisia, her family was able to move to the West Bank town of Jericho after the agreement.

"After Oslo, the Palestinian Authority passport was created. Before that we didn't have any document pertaining to Palestine. That was life-changing in the sense that we now have a nationality," she told DW.

However, looking at Oslo from today, "it was all a bit rushed" and important details were not negotiated, she said.

"I blame Israel a lot because they did not keep any component of their part in the Oslo agreement," Musallam said. "The A-B-C structure of the land was supposed to be how they will be moving out of the territories or stopping the settlement construction, and they did the opposite."

From left: Israeli Prime Minister Itzhak Rabin, Egyptian President Mubarak, Jordan's King Hussein, US President Bill Clinton and Palestinian leader Yassir Arafat fix their ties before the signing ceremony of the Oslo II Accords

White House photographer/GPO

Musallam refers to the remnants of the Oslo II agreement, signed in 1995, which stipulated the division of the occupied West bank in three administrative areas for a transitional time of five years. Today, the Palestinian Authority has limited control over area A, and the transitional plan was never implemented.

But she is also critical of the Palestinian leadership. "After five years of seeing the agreement fail, they should have taken definitive steps in countering that inaction from Israel. I blame them for not reacting for over 30 years now."
'There is only one option now: One State'

Palestinian Fathi Al Ghoul is a young CEO-founder of a marketing start-up in Ramallah.

"There is a lot to say about Oslo, and a lot of things were wrong, but most importantly we got recognition, an identity," he told DW.

The young Palestinian was born in the Yarmouk refugee camp in Syria. After the Oslo Accords, the family was able to come to Gaza, where Al Ghoul grew up in the Shati refugee camp in Gaza City. They had to move to the West Bank in 2007, when Hamas seized power from the Palestinian Authority

"In general, with regards to Oslo, it failed. It was a process and was supposed to end with a two-state solution. But if you look at reality, I think Israel killed the dream of the two-state solution," Al Ghoul said, referring to the notion of the creation of an independent Palestinian State alongside Israel. "We really wanted that there will be two states, side by side, now the only option is a one-state solution."

These days, the young CEO is worried about plans by the far-right Israeli government to annex parts of the occupied West Bank and the increase in extremist settler attacks against Palestinians.

"There is the occupation, and there are [Israeli] checkpoints and many difficulties in moving around. But these days I am really afraid to go to Nablus or Bethlehem. I am really afraid of the settlers," he said.

An Israeli soldier stops a driver at a checkpoint at the entrance of a Palestinian village south of Nablus in the West Bank

JAAFAR ASHTIYEH/AFP

A generation without any peace process

Opinion surveys among youth on both sides suggest that they are far less in favor of a two-state solution than previous generations who experienced some attempts of finding a solution.

In Israel, only 20% of Jewish Israeli youths aged 18-34 are in favor of a two-state solution, according to a joint poll published in January 2023 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah and the International Program in Conflict Resolution and Mediation at Tel Aviv University.

Dorit Shechter lives in an Israeli settlement in the Binyamin region in what she refers to as Judea and Samaria, a biblical name for the West Bank.

"I personally think it [Oslo] was a huge mistake. Every time Israel gave land for any peace agreement, it blew up, it literally blew up in our eyes," said Shechter, who grew up in a city near Tel Aviv and describes herself as religious. She remembers a childhood marked by Palestinian attacks and bombings during the Second Intifada [arabic: Uprising] which started in 2000.

For her, the concept of land for peace doesn't work. "I would say first of all, we must not give any piece of land of Israel. It is, for sure, not bringing peace, but it brings only terror. I think that not making a decision is also a kind of solution. So, we should just leave it as it is," she told DW.

From Oslo baby to post-Second Intifada soldier

Hillel Assaf, an Israeli who grew up in Jerusalem, has a different view.

"I was an Oslo baby, and I became a post-Second intifada soldier," said Assaf, referring to the Palestinian uprising with casualties on both sides. After serving as a soldier in the occupied West Bank, he later became active in Breaking the Silence, a group of army veterans critical of the ongoing military occupation of the Palestinian Territories.

He thinks new ideas and a new generation of politicians are needed to bring about change.

"You see Abu Mazen [Mahmoud Abbas, Palestinian president] in the pictures of the Oslo Accords. [Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's Prime Minister] was doing all the defamation against Oslo," said Assaf, who works for a progressive civil society organization in Israel.

"It's like we can't have a paradigm shift with the same people. It's just not going to happen. So, I really hope these people step off the pedestal and let other people come in," he told DW.

At the same time, it has become difficult to imagine a new path in the current political atmosphere, he said.

"I feel closer to some Palestinians than to ultra-nationalist Jews that are supposedly on 'my side.' I'd rather be stuck with the normal people on both sides," said Assaf.

"So, whatever the solution might be, I hope it comes from the moderate mainstream and not from the fringes of each different group."

Edited by: Rob Mudge and Carla Bleiker

Oslo Accords promise turned into ‘destroyed dreams’ in Gaza

By AFP
September 12, 2023

PLO chairman Yasser Arafat joins Israeli premier Yitzhak Rabin and US president Bill Clinton for the signing of the first Oslo Accord on September 13, 1993 

- Copyright AFP/File ALAIN JOCARD

Adel Zaanoun

Three decades after a historic handshake on the White House lawn that capped months of secret Israeli-Palestinian talks, disillusioned young Gazans face the consquences and failed promises of the once-celebrated Oslo Accords.

The agreements inked in the early 1990s were meant to lead to an independent Palestinian state, but years of stalled negotiations and bloody violence have left any peaceful resolution of the ongoing conflict a distant dream.

In the blockaded Gaza Strip, “the Oslo Accords… destroyed our dreams, future and ambitions,” said 20-year-old student Iman Hassouna.

She was not born when Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) leader Yasser Arafat returned to Gaza from exile months after the September 13, 1993 signing ceremony in Washington.

The interim accords granted the nascent Palestinian Authority some level of self-government but never expanded into a lasting solution, which “has had a negative effect on the future of my generation”, according to 22-year-old Adham Abdullah.

Fellow student Ahmed al-Abadila, 20, said what remains of the accords is “nothing but ink on paper”.

Mustafa al-Sununu arrived in Gaza alongside Arafat in July 1994 and was subsequently named captain of the Palestinian presidential guard.

“We thought the country would become like Singapore: open roads, work opportunities for our children, a government, an airport, a port and a passport”, Sununu, now 47, told AFP.

“We thought the state was within reach.”

– ‘Prison’ –

Gaza, a narrow coastal enclave, is now home to some 2.3 million people, according to the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics.

Daily struggles in the impoverished territory have been exacerbated by a crippling Israeli-led blockade since Hamas Islamists took control in 2007, two years after Israel withdrew troops and settlers.

Unemployment is rife with about 70 percent of young people without a job in Gaza, where residents regularly suffer power cuts and inadequate access to clean water.

“All countries have airports, border posts, ports… while our airport was destroyed and our borders have been closed,” said Israa Murad.

“We’re in prison,” according to the 21-year-old who studies journalism at Gaza City’s Al-Aqsa University.

Palestinians celebrated the opening of Gaza’s first airport in late 1998, but it was destroyed by Israeli forces in 2001 during the second Palestinian uprising, or intifada.

Since then, the Oslo Accords have become irrelevant for many.

“I’m not interested in that,” said the student Hassouna. “We young people are looking for work and a better future.”

– ‘No chance for peace’ –

Sununu, the former presidential guard chief, went into early retirement in 2008, like thousands of others employed by the security services of the Palestinian Authority (PA), based in the occupied West Bank.

It was the result of persistent rivalry between Hamas and its rival, Fatah — the party of Arafat and his successor Mahmud Abbas, which dominates the PA.

Two months ago, the retired officer opened a fast-food restaurant near the old presidential palace in Gaza City’s Al-Rimal district.

“We had high hopes,” he recalled of the days of the Oslo Accords.

But “the dream of a state has been broken.”

Gaza has seen four major outbreaks of fighting between Israel and Palestinian militants since 2008 which have left thousands dead, most of them Palestinians, and ravaged the territory’s infrastructure.

“We have lived through four wars and other tragedies and sorrows,” said Murad.

“How could we just forget all our past… How can we stand hand in hand with our occupiers and seek peace?”

To her, “there is no chance for peace between the Palestinians and Israel. What has been taken by force can only be taken back by force.”

Former Palestinian negotiator Hassan Asfour, who now lives in Egypt, accused extremists “of conspiring to thwart the Oslo Accords”, which many Palestinians and Israelis would agree has largely succeeded.

Speaking to AFP by phone, he said Palestinians should “leave Oslo” and forge a new path towards the future.

‘There is no solution’: 30 years after Oslo, Israeli settlements still expanding

 

Issued on: 13/09/2023 - 

01:53

Thirty years ago, the famous handshake between Palestinian Yasser Arafat and Israeli Yitzhak Rabin ratified the Oslo Accords. The aim was to implement a two-state solution. Since then, however, the number of Israeli settlers in the West Bank has continued to rise. Recently, a new plan, backed by settlement leaders, envisages doubling their numbers to 1 million by 2050. France 24’s Irris Makler and Claire Duhamel sent this report from Jerusalem.

Are Middle East investments in the West a threat?

Nik Martin
September 11, 2023

From football clubs to phone companies, Gulf Arab states are on an investment binge in the West, thanks to high oil prices.

Saudi Arabia is on a spending spree that goes beyond luring the world's best footballers

 Ahmed Yosri/REUTERS

When not tempting the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Neymar and Karim Benzema to Riyadh for hundreds of millions of euros a year, Saudi Arabia has regularly opened its deep pockets to prop up ailing businesses in the West.

Together with its neighbors the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Qatar, the massive Saudi Public Investment Fund (PIF) stepped in at the height of the 2008/9 financial crisis to support several Western banks, even as their own economies cratered along with the oil price.

"The Gulf sovereign wealth funds can invest large sums in an unbureaucratic manner, especially when the going gets tough. They've often proved to be white knights for many companies," Eckart Woertz, Director of the GIGA Institute for Middle East Studies, told DW.

The Kingdom currently has stakes in Nintendo, Uber, Boeing and Newcastle United Football Club. In June, Golf's PGA Tour agreed on a controversial merger with the Saudi-backed LIV Golf that was denounced by human rights groups.

PIF also owns nearly two-thirds of would-be Tesla rival Lucid Motors, splurging some $5.4 billion (€5.04 billion) over the past five years on a firm that produces less than 10,000 vehicles per year.

Telecoms investments under scrutiny

The latest investment, albeit much smaller, is Saudi Telecom's (STC) announcement last week that it had built up a 10% stake in Spain's telecommunications giant Telefonica, worth some €2.1 billion ($2.25 billion).

Saudi Telecom is gradually increasing its stake in Spanish telecoms company Telefonica

Thiago Prudencio/DAX via ZUMA Press Wire/picture alliance

Over the past eight years, Telefonica's market value has shrunk by two-thirds. Price wars for mobile and internet services, investments in new technologies and expansion to new markets have left the Spanish firm with a huge debt pile.

The UAE's phone company e& (formerly Etisalat) this year upped its stake in another major European telecoms firm, Vodafone, from 10% to nearly 15%. Last month, e& said it was considering a further increase to 20%.

The two investments have naturally sparked national security concerns as the Gulf states are autocratic regimes that have a long history of human rights abuses and rampant surveillance of their populations.

Last week, Nadia Calvino, Spain's first deputy prime minister, said the stake in Telefonica would need to be scrutinized "with the defense of Spain's strategic interests in mind."

The Madrid government is said to be particularly wary of Telefonica's ties with the country's defense sector.

Britain too is worried whether Vodafone's tie-up with e& could impact the former's $19 billion planned merger with rival Three UK, which is currently being scrutinized by the country's competition watchdog.

Three is owned by Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison and the deal could give China — and also the UAE — access to critical UK communications infrastructure. But some analysts think the concerns may be overblown.

Oil-rich Gulf nations are not China

"Saudi Arabia does not pursue comparable interests to China or Russia," said Woertz. "While China has been pursuing technology that is already installed here in highly sensitive communications infrastructure, that is not the case with Saudi Arabia. They don't produce high-end technology like China's Huawei."

Woertz was referring to the ban placed on Huawei and other Chinese tech firms by the United States and many of its allies in recent years. Western intelligence agencies have raised concerns that Chinese wireless networking equipment could contain backdoors that enable surveillance by Beijing.

Deep pockets for high-end chips

Amid a global shortage of high-end semiconductors needed to power advanced artificial intelligence language models, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are reported to have been buying up chips made by the US tech company NVIDIA.

The two countries have spoken openly about a desire to become leaders in AI technologies, which many tech leaders have warned could be misused by autocratic regimes. Indeed China has a lead over the rest of the world in surveillance of its 1.4 billion population.

"Human rights defenders and journalists are frequent targets of government crackdowns [in UAE and Saudi Arabia]," Iverna McGowan, director of the Center for Democracy and Technology's Europe office, told the Financial Times last month. "Pair this with the fact that we know how AI can have discriminatory impacts, or be used to turbocharge unlawful surveillance. It's a frightening thought."

Surveillance skills and close ties to China

There are increasing concerns that Gulf states are using AI technology to snoop on Western companies and users

 Mahmoud Khaled/picture alliance

Gulf Arab states have hit the headlines recently for their own surveillance prowess. In 2019, Google and Apple removed a popular UAE-based messaging app ToTok, after the New York Times reported that it was being used by Emirati intelligence agencies to spy on users.

The Gulf Arab states also heavily censor the internet, including anti-Islamic content, government critics and liberal issues, including LGBTQ+ rights.

The Gulf countries are also key partners of China's so-called Digital Silk Road (DSR), the technological arm of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) that aims to smooth trade between China and much of the rest of the world.

Several analysts have warned that the pervasiveness of Chinese snooping technology in the Middle East will likely pose additional security concerns for the West.

No end to sportswashing

Human rights groups have regularly denounced Saudi Arabia for a practice known as sportswashing — in other words, distracting from its appalling rights record with mega sports deals, like the recent merger of Golf's PGA tour and the massive investment in a Saudi league filled with top footballers from the West.

"It's been clear for some time that Saudi Arabia was prepared to use vast amounts of money to muscle its way into top-tier golf — just part of a wider effort to become a major sporting power and to try to distract attention from the country's atrocious human rights record," said Felix Jakens of Amnesty International UK.

In its latest annual report, the human rights group accused Saudi Arabia of human rights violations including unfair trials, torture in prisons, mass executions and discrimination against women.

While rights concerns are important, and security threats need investigating, GIGA's Woertz said that pragmatism often trumps other issues in business, especially in times of crisis.

"For companies, human rights are not their primary concerns. It is about growing the respective business and as an investor they [Gulf countries] are very useful," he said.

Edited by: Rob Mudge

Gabriel Boric: Chile's democracy 'still under construction'

Diego Zuniga

September 11, 2023

In an exclusive interview with DW, Chilean President Gabriel Boric talks about the political polarization caused by the 1973 coup and highlights the strength of today's institutions and democracy in Chile.

"For me, politics is not a game of arithmetic," Chilean President Gabriel Boric told DW. "I believe that democracy, to be strengthened and to take care of itself, has to know how to respond … to the needs of our citizens."

Boric, Chile’s president since March 2022, is the country’s eighth elected leader since Augusto Pinochet’s military rule ended in 1990. The 37-year-old was born more than a decade after Pinochet’s violent coup ousted the Marxist president, Salvador Allende, on September 11, 1973, but like many Chileans he too has had to grapple with its aftermath.

In an exclusive interview with DW's Jenny Perez to mark the 50th anniversary of the 1973 coup, Boric spoke of the current role of the armed forces, the challenges faced by his government and the changes he himself has undergone since he was elected.

"Taking office as president of Chile means you have to adapt when it comes to certain things. You are ruling over an entire country, and, therefore, you represent the whole of Chilean society, those who voted for you and those who didn't," said Boric, who is also the leader of Chile’s left-wing Social Convergence Party.

"But my longing for social justice, for social transformation, for progress toward a fairer distribution of wealth, toward a total end to discrimination against women and sexual diversity, toward a development that is just and integral, remains intact," he said, adding that he remained "a person with left-wing convictions."

Chile's most leftist president since Allende

These political positions, and the fact that Boric is Chile's most progressive head of state in the past 50 years, have influenced the commemorative events around the anniversary of the coup and Allende's death on September 11, 1973.

Boric said that given the chance he would thank the president [Allende] for his commitment, courage and sacrifice.

"I would tell him that we are working hard to follow in his footsteps, hoping 'to continue opening great avenues again, where free men and women can walk together to build a better society,'"

Boric is Chile's eighth leader since the end of Augusto Pinochet's military dictatorship

Image: Matias Delacroix/AP/picture alliance

Boric said citing from the last speech Allende ever made on the day he died.

It remains unclear to this day whether Allende's death was suicide or murder.

The repercussions of Pinochet's dictatorship still divide much of Chilean society. Boric had campaigned for a bigger event marking the anniversary of the 1973 coup, but according to a survey by pollster Pulso Ciudadano at least 60% of Chileans were not interested.

A "Pact for Peace," an effort introduced by Boric's predecessor to resolve the social and political conflict that has triggered countrywide protests since 2019, was also divisive. During his presidency, Boric has attempted to improve coexistence through minimum agreements of democratic respect, including the rewriting of the constitution, but the country's right-wing and center-right parties have not supported his efforts. He has championed the idea of a "Pact for Democracy."

"We continue to have differences as to why this institutional breakdown is taking place, and I see with concern that there are many right-wing leaders who insist on the idea that without Allende, there would have been no Pinochet," said Boric. "When you think about what that means, it is very worrying. It means that should there be another constitutional government they do not like and a climate of polarization and political difficulties, then the answer is a coup d'etat and a dictatorship.

"I hope Chilean society agrees with me when I say that we will always solve the problems of democracy with more democracy and not less. And that nothing will ever justify violating the human rights of those who think differently," he said.

Boric believes it's a positive development that all of Chile's living ex-presidents, including the center-right Sebastian Pinera, have signed the Pact for Democracy.
No danger of another coup

When asked about Chilean society taking a possible ultraconservative turn and the increase in more radical visions from all sectors, Boric told DW he was worried. He stressed the need for the government to respond to the "needs of our citizens."

"In Chile, we have been waiting 10 years for a pension reform. Not only do pensions not go up, but the trust Chileans have in democracy as a mechanism for solving their problems is weakened," he said.

"Democracy, from my point of view, is an end in itself, and we have to be looking after it constantly, watering it, caring for it," he said, adding that it was "based on consensus."

"The art of politics, the art of fair policies, is to reach agreements among those who think differently for the sake of a shared common good. And when societies become polarized, that shared common good can seem distant."

Chilean President Boric has shown an affinity for Salvador Allende, who was ousted in a coup by General Augusto Pinochet in 1973

Image: ORF

However, Boric said he did not believe there was a danger of the events of September 1973 being repeated in Chile: "It would be irresponsible of me to say so," he pointed out.

He also highlighted recent policy achievements, such as mining royalties or reducing the work week to 40 hours, as examples of how Chilean democracy can function.

"I believe that the opposition is playing a role, which has indeed resulted in a blockage to certain reforms, but it is part of how democracy works, and it is up to us to seek and explore new ways of reaching agreements," he said.

And the role of the military? "Now, I am certain that the armed forces are not looking to engage in any kind of adventure and that they are steadfast constitutionalists and respectful of the constitution and the rule of law," Boric stated.

'Democracies are constantly perfecting themselves'

The Chilean president's confidence lies in the strength of the country's institutions but he recognizes that maintaining democracy is an ongoing process.

"Chilean democracy is a democracy that is still under construction. I would not say that there is a moment when democracies are fully consolidated because societies change, and with change comes new challenges," he said.

"The inclusion of the feminist movement in our society, for example, has been very organic given the way politics was understood until 10 years ago. The old idea of infinite development at any cost is not only being questioned today. It is seen as something that could endanger the very survival of humanity. So democracies are constantly perfecting themselves."

Referring to the fact that the Chilean dictatorship came about in the context of the Cold War, which led to numerous military regimes in the region, Boric pointed out that "the power of arms is very meager. It vanishes with time. Bodies can disappear, people can be murdered, comrades can be tortured, but the dignity of those who fell and those who fight for a free country always ends up prevailing.

"And this is valid for the history of Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil and so many other Latin American dictatorships — or the world," he warned.

'We have to defend' democracy, human rights

Since his presidency began in 2022, Boric has also stood out on the international stage for his condemnation of leftist dictatorships in the region. In this regard, the president said he wasn't afraid of criticism.

"I am convinced that, in terms of human rights, we must have a single standard, both from the historical point of view and from a whole of society point of view, and therefore, we cannot go around choosing which autocracies we like and which we don't like," he said.

"If we value and defend democracy and, in particular, the universal respect for human rights as an advance of humanity, we have to defend it from the left, center, and right, whether we are red or blue. And I will stay firm on this no matter who it bothers."
US discloses role in 1973 coup

Boric also spoke in favor of the recent gesture by the United States to declassify documents outlining the role of the world power in the 1973 coup.

"The US ambassador to Chile has been very open to it. Some documents have already been declassified, and I believe that the position of the United States today is clear when it comes to condemning what happened," he said.

"However, we can always do more. The Nixon administration at the time made every possible effort — and this is all documented — first, to prevent President Allende from taking office and then to hinder and create the conditions of chaos that allowed for the coup."

US President Richard Nixon's administration was heavily involved in the events leading up to the coup in Chile, with the CIA helping to finance opposition efforts to organize strikes by truck drivers and shop owners. The US also backed Pinochet's government despite his regime's human rights record.

Boric (right) is optimistic about cooperating with Scholz (left) when it comes to investigating the German sect Colonia Dignidad

Image: Geert Vanden Wijngaert/AP/picture alliance

Boric said that he would ask for information on the alleged collaboration of the West German intelligence service with the Pinochet dictatorship and the German sect Colonia Dignidad, which cooperated with the regime.

"I have talked about this with Chancellor [Olaf] Scholz the few times I have met him. From what I have seen, I think he is keen to collaborate in everything related to the investigation and recognition of what happened in Colonia Dignidad," said Boric.

There has been an agreement to install plaques in memory of the victims of the German sect, although there have been no significant advances on that front. Boric said that "just a bit of willpower" is needed for that.

"What is clear to us is that there are still many dark elements around, even 50 years after the breakdown of democracy in Chile. Therefore, we will continue to fight for truth and justice."

This article was originally written in Spanish.

 Chinese city hunts for dozens of crocodiles

September 12, 2023

Chinese emergency teams are scrambling to track down a large number of crocodiles that escaped after heavy storms and floods that hit in recent days.


Crocodiles are bred in China for their skin and meat, which is sometimes used in traditional medicine

CFOTO/picture alliance

Chinese media reported on Tuesday that more than 70 crocodiles had escaped after deluges in Guangdong province caused a lake at a crocodile farm to overflow.

Authorities asked residents around the city of Maoming to stay inside as the severity of deluges hampered the search for the reptiles.
What's the latest we know?

"Crocodiles are still in the water, and several government departments are working to catch them," the state-affiliated China National Radio (CNR) reported, citing the local agriculture office.

"The specific situation is still under investigation," CNR said, adding that the exact number of animals still on the loose was not known.

The newspaper Beijing News said emergency forces were sent to locate the escaped crocodiles with the help of sonar equipment.

Authorities said the high water levels had made the search difficult, and asked residents to stay indoors.

Heavy rains drench southern China for 7th day  01:26

Footage showed responders in red uniforms searching flooded fields in rescue boats. In other images, crocodiles could be seen that had already been captured with their mouths and limbs tied together.

Bred for skin and meat

Crocodiles are bred in China for their skin as well as their meat, which is sometimes used in traditional Chinese medicine.

At least 69 grown crocodiles and six younger ones were kept at a farm near the lake that burst its banks, allowing the creatures to escape.

CNR also said the affected area was also home to a "crocodile theme park."

rc/jcg (dpa, AFP)

CONFLICTS ARMENIA

Azerbaijan lets aid into majority-Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh

Separatist authorities in Azerbaijan's Armenian-populated breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region say supplies have arrived via Azerbaijan-controlled territory. Azerbaijan had closed a route linking the territory with Armenia.

A truck carrying aid from Russia crossed from Azerbaijani-held territory into the ethnic Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday, despite objections from some residents.

It is the first time in 35 years that officials in Nagorno-Karabakh have allowed use of the transport link amid fears that the connection would allow Azerbaijan to fully absorb the breakaway territory.

Why was the aid shipment needed?

Azerbaijan started to blockade another road — the Lachin corridor — in December, alleging Armenians were using it to ship arms in and smuggle minerals out.

Amid acute shortages of food, fuel, and medicine, Nagorno Karabakh authorities on Saturday conceded on allowing aid to be funneled through from Azerbaijani-held areas.

The local authority said the truck had arrived at its destination, the territory's capital, Stepanakert, carrying blankets, toiletries and 1,000 food parcels.

Under the terms of the agreement, Nagorno-Karabakh officials had also stipulated that Azerbaijan reopen the Lachin corridor.

While it appeared that this might not immediately be the case, Russia's foreign ministry said the shipment of aid represented "a first step" to resolving the crisis.

Russian officials said they expected that the Lachin corridor would be unblocked "in the near future."

Vital and symbolic transport link

Nagorno-Karabakh slipped from Azerbaijan's grasp in a separatist war as the Soviet Union collapsed. Since 1994, it has survived with direct support from Armenia thanks to control over the Lachin corridor.

During that first war, Armenia had gained control of swaths of territory around Nagorno-Karabach. However, Azerbaijan won that territory back in a six-week-long war with Armenia in 2020 — leaving Nagorno-Karabach once again surrounded.

Under a Russian-brokered armistice, the Lachin corridor became the sole connection between Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh.

Russian troops policed the corridor until it was blocked last December.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has accused Russia of being either "unable or unwilling" to control the transport route. He has also warned of a return to all-out conflict.

Germany does not recognise the so-called "Nagorno-Karabakh Republic," considering it to be part of Azerbaijan.

rc/jcg (AFP, Reuters, AP, dpa)

US-Mexico border is world's deadliest land route, UN says

More migrants have died or disappeared across the Americas than ever before according to the UN body. Crossing from Mexico to the US is particularly risky.



The border between the US and Mexico is the world's "deadliest land route"

 Jose Luis Gonzalez /REUTERS


At least 1,457 displaced persons have died or disappeared in the Americas in 2022, the UN's International Organization for Migration (IOM) said on Tuesday.

With 686 documented deaths and disappearances, the US-Mexico border makes up for over half of the cases. While this is a slight decrease from last year, it still makes it the world's "deadliest land route" according to the IOM.

Dangerous desert areas

The Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts bordering the US are particularly dangerous. More deaths have been reported here than in the far bigger Sahara desert, the IOM said.

Documenting deaths and disappearances of migrants – especially in remote areas – is made difficult by lack of data from official sources according the UN organization.

"The fact that we know so little about migrants who disappear in the Americas is a grim reality,” said Marcelo Pisani, IOM Regional Director for South America. "The impacts on the families left behind to search endlessly for a lost loved one are profound."

The IOM urged countries in the region "to act on the data to ensure safe, regular migration routes are accessible."

Increased migration across Latin America and Caribbean

The IOM said the numbers in its report "represent the lowest estimates available." Still, the overall number of deaths and disappearances has more than doubled since 2018.

Migration across the Americas has been increasing in recent years. Movements between countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have seen an especially steep hike: from 5.3 million migrants in 2010 to 11.3 million in 2020, numbers from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) show.

North America is still the primary destination for people migrating from Latin America and the Caribbean. In 2022, more than 2,5 million people crossed the southern border of the US, setting a new record.

fg/jcg (afp, ap)

Latin America worst region for environment defenders — NGO

Zac Crellin

DW

13/09/2023 

More land defenders were murdered in Colombia than any other country in the past 12 months. The Amazon also saw a large number of lethal attacks, particularly against Indigenous people.

Indigenous people have been murdered in the Amazon as illegal mining encroaches on their land

ALAN CHAVES/AFP via Getty Images

Latin America is the most dangerous region in the world for environmental defenders, according to a new report released by the Global Witness NGO on Wednesday.

The environmental crime watchdog said at least 177 land defenders were killed worldwide last year. One in five of them were murdered in the Amazon rainforest.

The countries where the most environmental defenders were killed were Colombia, Brazil, Mexico and Honduras.

Very few perpetrators are brought to justice, which has created a climate of impunity.

"For too long, those responsible for lethal attacks against defenders have been getting away with murder," said Shruti Suresh from Global Witness.
Murders increase in Colombia

Colombia was found to be the deadliest country on the list with 60 land defenders murdered in the past year — accounting for a third of such killings worldwide.

"Once again, Indigenous peoples, Afro-descendant communities, small-scale farmers and environmental activists have been viciously targeted," the report read.

Since coming to power in August last year, leftist President Gustavo Petro pledged to put an end to such violence.

His government signed on to the Escazu agreement in October 2022 which includes protections for environmentalists.

But despite this, the number of murdered land defenders in Colombia is almost double the figure reported in 2021.

At least 382 defenders have been killed in the country since Global Witness began documenting deaths in 2012. Colombia is also the country with the highest number of reported killings globally over this period.

Dozens of killings last year also occurred in Brazil and Mexico, with 14 land defenders also having been murdered in Honduras in 2022.

Indigenous groups under attack

The report is a reminder that Indigenous communities are disproportionately targeted by lethal attacks, often related to illegal mining, logging and fishing encroaching on their land.

Around 34% of murdered land defenders last year were Indigenous, despite making up around 5% of the world's population.

"Research has shown again and again that Indigenous peoples are the best guardians of the forests and therefore play a fundamental role in mitigating the climate crisis," said Laura Furones, a researcher on land defenders at Global Witness.

"Yet they are under siege in countries like Brazil, Peru and Venezuela for doing precisely that. We hear of new attacks every day, and our report highlights some of those stories."

The murder of Indigenous peoples expert Bruno Pereira and British journalist Dom Phillips in the Amazon last year brought global attention to the threat faced by rainforest communities every day.

 

Indigenous land defenders demanded justice for Bruno Pereira and Dom Phillips, who were murdered in the Amazon last year

Andre Penner/AP Photo/picture alliance

A worldwide problem

Outside of Latin America, the Philippines was the most dangerous country for environmental defenders after 11 people were reported murdered in the last year.

Other countries where environmental defenders have been killed recently include India, Indonesia, South Africa and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Global Witness said many murders go unreported, often due to a lack of independent monitoring in many countries and restrictions on press freedom.

The NGO said it therefore cannot capture the full scale of the problem, while governments around the world also fail to investigate these incidents.

Edited by: Wesley Dockery

Colombia deadliest country for green activists in 2022, says report

Environmental activist murders doubled in Colombia last year, making it the most dangerous country in the world for those trying to protect the planet, a watchdog said Tuesday.

Nadia Umana, a Colombian environmental leader threatened by criminal gangs, speaks during an interview with AFP in Bogota on August 30, 2023. 

© Raul Arboleda, AFP

By:NEWS WIRES

In its annual review, Global Witness named 177 land and environmental defenders who had been killed in 2022 -- from the Amazon to the Philippines and Democratic Republic of Congo.

Latin America again bore the brunt of the murders, including 39 killings across the vast Amazon rainforest, a vital carbon sink facing widespread destruction at a time the world is grappling to curb climate change.

The number of those killed has progressively decreased since a record 227 in 2020, however "this does not mean that the situation has significantly improved," said Global Witness.

"The worsening climate crisis and the ever-increasing demand for agricultural commodities, fuel and minerals will only intensify the pressure on the environment -– and those who risk their lives to defend it," warned the London-based watchdog.

While in 2021 most killings took place in Mexico, Colombia last year surged ahead with 60 deaths -- more than a third of all the murders globally.

"This is almost double the number of killings compared to 2021, when 33 defenders lost their lives," said the report.

Many of those targeted were Indigenous people, members of Afro-descendant communities, small-scale farmers and environmental activists.

At least five children, three of them Indigenous, were among the global tally.

"Yet there is hope," said the NGO, praising efforts under new leftist President Gustavo Petro to boost protection for defenders -- a first in the country.

Colombian sociologist and activist Nadia Umana, 35, fled her northern home after the murders of four colleagues, all of whom had been fighting for the return of rural lands taken over by paramilitaries.

"Knowing that a colleague of yours was murdered is an indescribable pain," Umana told AFP in Bogota.

Even the country's vice-president, Francia Marquez -- the 2018 winner of the prestigious Goldman environmental prize -- has faced multiple threats.

In 2019, she survived an attack by gunmen who tried to kill her over her work defending her home region's water resources against mining companies.
Mining, logging, farming

According to Global Witness, almost 2,000 land and environmental defenders have been murdered over the past decade -- some 70 percent of them in Latin America.

In Brazil, where British journalist Dom Philips and Indigenous expert Bruno Pereira were killed last year in the Amazon, a total of 34 land defenders were killed.

Mexico, Honduras, and the Philippines also had high numbers.

Global Witness said that while it was "difficult to identify" the exact drivers for the killings, 10 were found to be linked to agribusiness, eight to mining, and four to the logging industry.

Aside from activists, state officials, demonstrators, park rangers, lawyers, and journalists are also among those who lost their lives.

"All of them shared a commitment to defend their rights and keep the planet healthy. All of them paid for their courage and commitment with their lives," said the report.


Issued on: 13/09/2023 
(AFP)

Disasters getting worse, say Brazil cyclone victims

Muçum (Brazil) (AFP) – In his 74 years, Humberto Simonaio had never experienced anything like it: the cyclone that hit southern Brazil swelled the Taquari river so badly it inundated even high ground he had never seen flood before.

Residents of the town of Mucum, in southern Brazil, remove belongings from a house damaged by a deadly cyclone © Silvio AVILA / AFP

Simonaio, the owner of a beloved, half-century-old ice cream parlor called Keko in the hard-hit town of Mucum, said he knew he needed to get his freezers and other equipment to higher ground as last week's storm headed toward the southern state of Rio Grande do Sul, packing torrential rains.

But he never imagined the local river would become such a torrent it would also overrun the supposedly safe spot he took them to, a friend's shed in one of the highest parts of the city, he said.

"Since the day I was born, I'd never had to evacuate because of a flood," said Simonaio, who had a machine swept several meters (yards) away by the current but plans to reopen soon.

"I don't know why these storms have gotten so big. This was the biggest in our history," he told AFP.

Mucum, population 4,600, is hardly alone: experts say extreme weather events are growing more common around the world, hitting places like Hong Kong, Greece and Libya this month alone, as climate change fuels bigger, deadlier disasters and governments struggle to adapt.

A week after the storm hit Mucum, the town is still cleaning the mud and wreckage from its streets and mourning its dead.

Sixteen of the nearly 50 people killed in the cyclone were found here. Dozens of others are still missing across the region.

"Human lives are being seriously affected by the excessive warming of the atmosphere, which is resulting in extreme weather events in various parts of the world," said Dakir Larara Machado da Silva, a climate scientist at Rio Grande do Sul Federal University.

"Record heat waves, prolonged droughts, a month's worth of rain in 24 hours -- it's a ticking time bomb," added the professor, who got a first-hand view of the destruction when the storm hit his state.

"Areas that didn't used to be affected (by floods) are starting to now."

'Here to stay'

In a neighborhood of Mucum called Fatima, the one hit hardest by the storm, 56-year-old teacher Ana Luisa Batiuci says she used to feel relatively safe: the house where she lives with her husband and daughter sits on a hilltop.

But they got more than a meter (three feet) of water inside.

"It had never risen so high," she told AFP, cleaning up the mud.

Selmar Klunk, 38, the director of a regional tourism association, was helping neighbors in the nearby town of Encantado save their belongings as the floodwaters rose.

After working through the night, he learned the flood had reached the parking lot where he left his car, two kilometers (more than a mile) from the river.

Machado da Silva called the disaster an "exceptional climate event" that "defies preventive measures" -- and will probably be repeated.

"It's the start of something that's here to stay," he said.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva also linked the tragedy to the warming climate.

The planet is experiencing "an unprecedented climate emergency," he said from the G20 summit in New Delhi.



Issued on: 13/09/2023 
© 2023 AFP

As climate catastrophes rise, reinsurers reduce risks

Monaco (AFP) – Natural disasters are now happening so frequently that reinsurers -- the firms that sell insurance to insurance companies -- are scaling back their exposure to such risks.

Natural disasters such as the wildfires that scorched Hawaii have become more frequent © Patrick T. Fallon / AFP/File

While this may make business sense, it raises the question of whether individuals and businesses will be able to protect themselves against the effects of climate change if their insurance companies cannot even get coverage themselves.

Just weeks after wildfires caused major damage in Hawaii and parts of Europe, and as catastrophic floods ravaged Libya, the issue was front and centre at a major industry gathering held in Monaco this week.

Reinsurers identified climate change as the biggest risk they now face in a survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation.

"Climate change is the number-one risk once again as reinsurers bear the brunt of the cost of catastrophe claims from an ever-increasing number of extreme weather events," the report said.

"As these losses spiral upwards, the survey highlights growing concerns that some areas and types of business could become uninsurable," it added.

Ratings agency Fitch said in a note to investors ahead of the conference, which ends Wednesday, that some companies "were already retreating from the property-casualty market in 2022".

It added that "even the strongest reinsurers have now pulled back, largely through tightening their terms and conditions to limit their aggregate covers and low layers of natural catastrophe protection".

Another ratings agency, S&P, said "more than half of the top 20 global reinsurers maintained or reduced their natural catastrophe exposures during the January 2023 renewals, despite the improved pricing terms and conditions and rising demand".

The reinsurance unit of insurance giant AXA raised prices 6.3 percent during the first half of this year, but it took in three percent less, mostly because of a reduction in exposure to natural catastrophes.

According to Fitch, reinsurers are reducing their exposure to so-called secondary peril events. These are smaller weather events, which are becoming more frequent and virulent owing to climate change.

'Doesn't make any sense'

Reinsurers are still offering ample cover against the most severe weather events, Fitch added.

Data released by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that weather and climate disasters in the United States where losses exceeded $1 billion averaged 18 per year between 2018 and 2022, up from 8.1 events between 1980 and 2022, using inflation-adjusted figures.

The United States was hit by a record-breaking 23 such events in the first eight months of this year, it added.

This rising number of natural disasters has put pressure on reinsurers.

"There was an under-estimation of the frequency of events, and I think we underestimated the development of the population in different areas as well," said Jean-Paul Conoscente, chief executive of the property and casualty branch of reinsurer Scor.

Scor began to reduce its exposure to natural catastrophes in 2021.

Fitch analyst Robert Mazzuoli noted that policies that paid out to insurers once a certain amount of damages from a particular risk, like hail, was reached, have completely disappeared when they were very popular only two or three years ago.

Providing coverage against risks with "really high frequency... doesn't make any sense", said Thomas Blunck, who heads up the reinsurance committee at the world's top reinsurer, Munich Re.

These natural disaster policies were initially developed to protect insurers from extreme events and not against the volatility inherent in the business, said Conoscente, explaining the development in the industry.

'Brutal' shift

But this repositioning of reinsurers is not without consequence for traditional insurers.

"This is part of the reasons which has driven us to have a rather negative outlook," said Manuel Arrive, a Paris-based director at Fitch Ratings.

Jean-Philippe Dogneton, head of the French insurer Macif, criticised the "rapid" and "brutal" shift in the reinsurance sector.

Fitch's Robert Mazzuoli said some reinsurers "were abrupt with their clients and treated them poorly".

Given the current circumstances, insurers may have little choice than increase their rates or in turn reduce the risks that they cover, which is already happening in certain countries.

Scor's Conoscente said for the moment "you can get insurance anywhere" but on the condition of being able to "pay the necessary price".

For him, the real problem is that "a large portion of the population isn't ready to pay the real cost" of climate change.

 13/09/2023 

© 2023 AFP