REVENGE PORN 
Apps That Use AI to Undress Women in Photos Soaring in Use


Margi Murphy
Fri, December 8, 2023 



(Blooberg) -- Apps and websites that use artificial intelligence to undress women in photos are soaring in popularity, according to researchers.

In September alone, 24 million people visited undressing websites, the social network analysis company Graphika found.

Many of these undressing, or “nudify,” services use popular social networks for marketing, according to Graphika. For instance, since the beginning of this year, the number of links advertising undressing apps increased more than 2,400% on social media, including on X and Reddit, the researchers said. The services use AI to recreate an image so that the person is nude. Many of the services only work on women.

Read More: No Laws Protect People From Deepfake Porn. These Victims Fought Back

These apps are part of a worrying trend of non-consensual pornography being developed and distributed because of advances in artificial intelligence — a type of fabricated media known as deepfake pornography. Its proliferation runs into serious legal and ethical hurdles, as the images are often taken from social media and distributed without the consent, control or knowledge of the subject.

The rise in popularity corresponds to the release of several open source diffusion models, or artificial intelligence that can create images that are far superior to those created just a few years ago, Graphika said. Because they are open source, the models that the app developers use are available for free.

“You can create something that actually looks realistic,” said Santiago Lakatos, an analyst at Graphika, noting that previous deepfakes were often blurry.

One image posted to X advertising an undressing app used language that suggests customers could create nude images and then send them to the person whose image was digitally undressed, inciting harassment. One of the apps, meanwhile, has paid for sponsored content on Google’s YouTube, and appears first when searching with the word “nudify.”

A Google spokesperson said the company doesn’t allow ads “that contain sexually explicit content.”

“We’ve reviewed the ads in question and are removing those that violate our policies,” the company said.

A Reddit spokesperson said the site prohibits any non-consensual sharing of faked sexually explicit material and had banned several domains as a result of the research. X didn’t respond to a request for comment.

In addition to the rise in traffic, the services, some of which charge $9.99 a month, claim on their websites that they are attracting a lot of customers. “They are doing a lot of business,” Lakatos said. Describing one of the undressing apps, he said, “If you take them at their word, their website advertises that it has more than a thousand users per day.”

Non-consensual pornography of public figures has long been a scourge of the internet, but privacy experts are growing concerned that advances in AI technology have made deepfake software easier and more effective.

“We are seeing more and more of this being done by ordinary people with ordinary targets,” said Eva Galperin, director of cybersecurity at the Electronic Frontier Foundation. “You see it among high school children and people who are in college.”

Many victims never find out about the images, but even those who do may struggle to get law enforcement to investigate or to find funds to pursue legal action, Galperin said.

There is currently no federal law banning the creation of deepfake pornography, though the US government does outlaw generation of these kinds of images of minors. In November, a North Carolina child psychiatrist was sentenced to 40 years in prison for using undressing apps on photos of his patients, the first prosecution of its kind under law banning deepfake generation of child sexual abuse material.

TikTok has blocked the keyword “undress,” a popular search term associated with the services, warning anyone searching for the word that it “may be associated with behavior or content that violates our guidelines,” according to the app. A TikTok representative declined to elaborate. In response to questions, Meta Platforms Inc. also began blocking key words associated with searching for undressing apps. A spokesperson declined to comment.

(Updates with Reddit comment in 10th paragraph. A previous version of this story incorrectly stated that the apps were free.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

Canada’s fossil fuel firms will need to cut emissions by at least 35% by 2030

Aliya Uteuova and agencies
Thu, December 7, 2023 

Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty Images


Canada will require its fossil fuel industry to cut its emissions between 35% to 38% below 2019 levels starting in 2030, it was announced on Thursday.

Related: ‘Unprecedented mass coral bleaching’ expected in 2024, says expert

The prime minister Justin Trudeau’s government plans to limit emissions from the oil and gas sector through a national cap-and-trade system which he first proposed in his 2021 election campaign, according to the policy announcement.

“Every sector of Canada’s economy must do its part to combat climate change and build a safe, prosperous, and healthy future for Canadians,” said Canada’s environment minister, Steven Guilbeault, in a statement made from the Cop28 UN climate conference in Dubai. He added: “All sectors of our economy need to reduce their emissions and that includes oil and gas companies.”

The policy, part of Canada’s plan to reach net-zero by 2050, works by setting a limit on emissions, and having companies that do not meet that benchmark buy and trade emission allowances with other producers.

The newly introduced framework states that facilities would be able to buy a limited amount of carbon offset credits – which have faced questions over their effectiveness in cutting planet-heating emissions – or contribute to a decarbonization fund.

The cap would cover all greenhouse gas emissions and apply to oil and gas companies, offshore facilities and liquefied natural gas producers. Together they represent roughly 85% of the sector’s emissions, according to the policy release.

The proposal was met with opposition from the premier of Canada’s main fossil-fuel producing province Alberta.

“We have been very firm in saying that we oppose any kind of arbitrary emissions cap, whether it’s on oil and gas emissions or whether it’s on methane,” Alberta’s premier, Danielle Smith, said on Thursday. Smith relayed her intentions to challenge the policy and produce a “constitutional shield” against the proposal.

“This proposed cap also undermines the unity of our country,” Smith said in a statement.

In response to the Canada’s announcement of the capping framework, Keith Stewart, senior energy strategist for Greenpeace Canada said: “This isn’t yet the ambitious emissions cap we need to set us on a path to the full, fast and fair phase-out of fossil fuels necessary to avoid the worst impacts of climate change.”

The government promises to publish draft regulations in mid-2024 with input from the industry.

Reuters contributed to this story

Canada Orders Emissions Cuts Up to 38% for Oil and Gas Firms

Laura Dhillon Kane and Kevin Orland
Thu, December 7, 2023 



(Bloomberg) -- Canada will require its oil and gas industry to cut emissions to 35% to 38% below 2019 levels in six years in what the government is calling a historic first for a major fossil-fuel producing country.

Environment Minister Steven Guilbeault announced the long-promised oil and gas emissions cap Thursday at the COP28 summit in Dubai, a policy likely to inflame tensions with conservative leaders of western provinces that are home to the bulk of the industry.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government will implement a cap-and-trade system to achieve the cuts. It will set a legal limit on the sector’s emissions and then allow companies to buy and trade a limited number of emissions allowances or permits. Companies that reduce emissions will be able to sell more permits, thereby rewarding those who innovate to cut pollution.

“There is no future for this industry unless they decarbonize,” Guilbeault said in an interview.

Producers will be allowed the flexibility to emit up to a level of about 20% to 23% below 2019 levels through the ability to buy carbon offsets or pay into a fund that promotes decarbonization in the sector if their emissions exceed the cap.

The cap will go down over time until Canada’s economy reaches net zero in 2050. Thursday’s announcement is a framework that lays out the plan, with more details to be released in draft regulations in the middle of next year, Guilbeault said. Those regulations will narrow down an exact emissions target for 2030, he said.

Industry Reaction

The Canadian Association of Energy Contractors said it rejects the cap, arguing it will hurt Canadian energy workers and the small and medium-sized businesses supporting them.

“The world will continue its decarbonization journey, but will demand more pragmatic and affordable policies,” the association’s head, Mark Scholz, said Thursday in a statement. “The federal government’s emissions cap will hinder Canada’s ability to attract capital. It means higher energy costs and fewer jobs for Canadian energy workers.”

The Explorers and Producers Association of Canada said imposing an emissions cap on oil and gas producers, who are already achieving significant emissions reductions, is unnecessary and unacceptable.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is already pushing back, saying the “de facto production cap on Alberta’s oil and gas sector amounts to an intentional attack by the federal government on the economy of Alberta.” Smith has already invoked an act that she says allows the province to override federal legislation to defy its clean-electricity regulations.

The oil and gas sector is the largest single source of emissions for Canada, accounting for 28% of that pollution in 2021, according to Canada’s government. Emissions from the sector were 201 million metric tons in 2019, 20% higher than 2005.

The cap-and-trade system will cover all direct greenhouse gas emissions, while also accounting for indirect emissions related to the production of oil and gas and carbon storage. The cap will regulate upstream oil and gas facilities, including offshore operations, and will also apply to liquefied natural gas plants.

The environment minister said the regulations will ensure that oil and gas companies making record profits invest them in Canadian jobs, communities and the economy. There was no new government funding announced Thursday to help industry meet the targets, though Canada previously promised C$12.4 billion ($9.1 billion) in tax credits for building carbon capture systems.

Guilbeault said he had been speaking with other major fossil fuel-producing countries at COP28 and none had capped emissions from their sector. “It’s never been done before.


©2023 Bloomberg L.P.

COP28: US-UAE climate-friendly farming effort grows to $17 billion

Updated Fri, December 8, 2023 

FILE PHOTO: In an Argentine field, green shoots mask scars of drought


By Leah Douglas, Simon Jessop and Mohammed Benmansour

DUBAI (Reuters) -Funding for a joint effort by the United States and United Arab Emirates to advance climate-friendly farming around the world has grown to more than $17 billion, the countries announced on Friday at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai.

The Agriculture Innovation Mission for Climate (AIM for Climate) was launched in 2021 at COP26 in Glasgow and its funding comes from governments, companies, and non-governmental organizations.

Globally, food and farming contribute about a third of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, according to the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization.

Nearly 80 projects have been announced under the AIM for Climate initiative since 2021, with goals to expand agricultural research, implement sustainable farming practices, and reduce methane emissions.

"I think it's made people think about food and agriculture in a much different way," Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference.

"And I think it's reflected, frankly, in the fact that this COP ... has actually elevated food (and) agriculture to the point where it's an integral part of COP meetings. That has not been the case for the previous 27."

Funding for the effort has grown from $13 billion in May, when the U.S. and UAE co-hosted an AIM for Climate summit in Washington, and from $8 billion at COP27.

The new total includes $12 billion from governments and $5 billion from non-government parties such as companies and humanitarian organizations, said an AIM for Climate spokesperson.

The 27 new projects announced at COP28 range in size from $500 million to $150,000.

In one of the largest projects, companies including Bunge and Alphabet's Google are working with the Nature Conservancy and the Brazilian state of Para to expand regenerative agriculture, which generally refers to practices like reduced tillage of cropland and lower pesticide use.

For the first time, agriculture is a major focus at this year's climate summit, with a full day on Dec. 10 dedicated to food and farming topics.

"We understand that we need to speed up innovations ... to be able to transform agriculture food systems to more sustainable systems," UAE Minister for Climate and the Environment Mariam Almheiri told Reuters.

Advocacy groups want the nations and companies in attendance to pledge to tackle agricultural methane emissions in particular, most of which is from livestock production.

(Reporting by Leah Douglas in Washington; editing by David Evans)

Latest COP28 draft text sets new options on fossil fuel phase out

William James and Elizabeth Piper
Fri, December 8, 2023 

Climate activists protest against fossil fuels at Dubai's Expo City during the United Nations Climate Change Conference COP28 in Dubai


By William James and Elizabeth Piper

DUBAI (Reuters) - The U.N. climate agency published a new draft of its COP28 agreement on Friday which included a range of options for the future of fossil fuel use, the most contentious issue at the summit.

Over the next few days countries are expected to focus on the issue in hopes of reaching a consensus before the summit's scheduled end on Dec. 12.

The options included in the text, which is still under negotiation, were for the final deal to call upon countries to "take further action in this critical decade towards":

- "A phase out of fossil fuels in line with best available science"

- "Phasing out of fossil fuels in line with best available science, the IPCC's 1.5 pathways and the principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement"

- "A phase-out of unabated fossil fuels recognizing the need for a peak in their consumption in this decade and underlining the importance for the energy sector to be predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050"

- "Phasing out unabated fossil fuels and to rapidly reducing their use so as to achieve net-zero CO2 in energy systems by or around mid-century"

- No language on the future use of fossil fuels.

The document also set out an option for a "rapid phase out of unabated coal power this decade and an immediate cessation of the permitting of new unabated coal power generation". The other option for this paragraph was to include no text on the issue.

Elsewhere the draft offers an option to call either for "the phase out of fossil fuel subsidies that do not address energy poverty or just transition", or to include no text on the issue.

(Reporting by William James and Elizabeth Piper; Editing by Katy Daigle)
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At COP28, pageantry is over and negotiations get intense; 'It's go time' to save planet in peril

SETH BORENSTEIN, DAVID KEYTON and JON GAMBRELL
Updated Fri, December 8, 2023 















DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Teams of veteran negotiators fanned out Friday at the United Nations climate conference with orders to get the strongest, most ambitious agreements possible, especially on the central issue of the fading future of fossil fuels for a dangerously warming planet.

The leadership of climate talks, called COP28, sent out four pairs of veteran and high-level ministers to push countries together on four key but stubborn issues as the summit went into its second week after a day of rest Thursday.

New proposed language on how to curb warming released Friday afternoon strengthened the options for a phase-out of fossil fuels that negotiators could choose from. Four of the five options call for some version of a rapid phase-out.

Major oil-producing nations were always seen as likely to resist that, and late Friday, multiple news organizations reported that OPEC's top official, Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais, had written to member countries urging them to reject any text that targets fossil fuels rather than emissions. OPEC didn't immediately respond to an email from The Associated Press seeking comment.

Mohamed Adow, director of Power Shift Africa, called the letter “shameful.”

“These letters show that fossil fuel interests are starting to realize that the writing is on the wall for dirty energy," Sadow said in a statement. “Their fossil fuels have imperiled the planet, pushed millions of people to the brink of survival and sadly, too many over that line. Climate change is killing poor people around the globe and these petrostates don’t want COP28 to phase out fossil fuels because it will hurt their short-term profits.”

Earlier, Adow had been among environmental advocates who had some qualified optimism about the expanded 27-page draft language.

“The bare bones of a historic agreement is there,” Adow said. "What we now need is for countries to rally behind the stronger of the options and strengthen them further.”

Making a possible final document stronger was also a priority for top United Nations officials.

“It’s go time for governments at COP28 this week,” U.N. Climate Chief Simon Stiell said at a press event. “If we want to save lives now and keep (the international goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius, 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, of warming since pre-industrial times) within reach, the highest ambition COP outcomes must stay front and center in these negotiations.”

Stiell underlined the challenge ahead if the world doesn’t limit emissions, describing ice shelves melting to cause catastrophic flooding in coastal cities around the globe.

“If we pass these key thresholds, we can never go back from the planet’s perspective,” he said. A report released Wednesday on the sidelines of the summit warned that melting of ice sheets could reach the point of no return with more warming.

COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber said he was “quite positive, hopeful and optimistic” that the summit could bring a “paradigm shift centered around and based on the science.”

Members of the four pairs of high level special teams — who will work with negotiators from nearly 200 countries — said they too thought they'd be able to get the job done.

“I think there is some momentum. Having spoken to all parties' groups of countries for months now there really is this sense of urgency,” Denmark's Environment Minister Dan Jorgensen, told The Associated Press. “We need an agreement, so I am optimistic.”

EU countries, some Latin American countries and the small island countries often victimized by climate change are aligned on calling for a phase-out of fossil fuels, negotiators said.

Two groups of countries are likely to oppose, in some manner, a full and quick phase out of fossil fuels, said World Resources Institute CEO Ani Dasgupta. One is developing nations, like India and Indonesia, that think they need fossil fuels to power up their economies, but with financial and other aid, they can be pulled out of that position, he said.

The other group are fossil fuel producers. The United States is the biggest oil producer in the world and Special Envoy John Kerry earlier this week said the U.S. is committed to supporting strong phase-out language. But a big country looming against it is Saudi Arabia and they are close partners with the United Arab Emirates, the country hosting and running the conference, Dasgupta said.

The UAE has a lot to gain from a successful climate conference and “I think they will bring Saudi Arabia as close as possible,” Dasgupta said. When asked at a press conference about working with Saudi Arabia, al-Jaber, who also leads his country's national oil company, avoided answering that part of the question.

The Arab group is a major blocker so far, a negotiator said. The official spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid affecting negotiations.

“I felt from the consultations that very many parties understand that we have to have a real progress on mitigation,” climate talk for emissions cuts, said Norway Foreign Minister Espen Barth-Eide. “That was not as true in Sharm el-Sheikh” in 2022 climate talks.

Annalena Baerbock, Germany’s foreign minister, said: “What we need to be successful here is to achieve the goal of phasing out fossil fuels ... not emissions. It does make quite a substantial difference.”

European negotiators provided some extra hope. The EU goal is to cut emissions by 55% by 2030, but European Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra said Friday that the European parliament hopes to do better than than and instead slice 57%.

Negotiators said there is a sense of urgency because of floods, droughts, storms and heat waves in a world that keeps setting heat records.

"We cannot negotiate with nature,” Jorgensen said. “The climate cannot compromise.”

As analysts and activists examined the new text they kept looking for more clarity, especially when it comes to fossil fuels and adaptation plans.

The frequent use of phase-out in the draft is good, "but it also has terms that would leave parties in an ambiguous position," said Jamal Srouji of World Resources Institute. He worried that it would not tell people clearly “who needs to do what when."

“We have never been closer to an agreement on a fossil fuel phase-out,” said Oil Change International's Romain Ioualalen.

Asked when talks would start to go around the clock, Danish negotiator Jorgensen looked at his watch and said, “Now.”

___

Associated Press journalist Sibi Arasu and Gaurav Saini from The Press Trust of India contributed to this report.

___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

UN talks look for deal on winding down fossil fuels

Shaun Tandon and Laurent Thomet
Fri, December 8, 2023 

Negotiations over phasing out fossil fuels are at the heart of the UN climate conference in Dubai (Giuseppe CACACE)


Negotiators strived for a compromise on phasing out fossil fuels at UN climate talks Friday as momentum gathered to strike a historic deal in Dubai.

After the arrival of ministers for the summit's final stretch, a new draft was released with more options on the most difficult part of an emerging deal -- cutting fossil fuels to tame the planet's soaring temperatures.

The third version of the draft, which represents views of various countries, offers five options. One that remains from previous versions calls for not mentioning fossil fuels at all.

Other options include phasing out "unabated" fossil fuels -- those whose emissions cannot be captured -- with a goal of peaking consumption this decade and aiming for the world's energy sector to be "predominantly free of fossil fuels well ahead of 2050".

A new line calls for ramping up renewable energy to displace fossil fuels -- oil, gas and coal -- with a goal of "significantly reducing global reliance on non-renewable and high-emission energy sources".

That language is in line with an agreement between the United States and China, the world's top emitters of greenhouse gases, at talks in California last month.

COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber wants to wrap up the talks on schedule at 11 am (0700 GMT) on Tuesday, which means that all the nearly 200 nations will have to come to a consensus.

"Let us please get this job done," he said.

- 'Never closer' -

Romain Ioualalen, global policy manager of the advocacy group Oil Change International, said that the latest text "shows we have never been closer to an agreement on a fossil fuel phaseout."

But he voiced alarm over "large loopholes" under consideration for the fossil fuel industry.

The most vocal holdout to calls to end fossil fuels is Saudi Arabia, which like summit host United Arab Emirates has grown wealthy on oil.

While China has sided with the camp opposed to a phase-out so far, the country is seen as a constructive partner in the talks, negotiators said.

"We won't reach a deal without China," said a French delegation official.

In a sign that oil-rich countries are growing worried, OPEC chief Haitham Al Ghais sent a letter to members of the cartel and their allies on Wednesday, urging them to "proactively reject" any COP28 deal that "targets" fossil fuels instead of emissions.

"It seems that the undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences," Ghais wrote in the letter seen by AFP.

Climate campaigners have viewed Jaber with deep suspicion as he is head of the UAE national oil firm ADNOC.

But he has sought to reassure doubters by stating that a phase-down of fossil fuels is "inevitable".

Wopke Hoekstra, the European Union's climate commissioner, acknowledged that the fossil fuel question was the most difficult at COP28.

He voiced doubt about technologies promoted by energy producers -- including the US -- to rely on new technologies when extracting fossil fuels, so-called carbon capture and storage or CCS.

It is "crystal clear that CCS is part of the solution. But make no mistake -- we cannot CCS ourselves out of this problem," Hoekstra said.

The level of technology "simply doesn't exist. We need to drive down emissions."

- 'Credibility' on line -

Scientists warn that greenhouse gas emissions -- the bulk of which come from burning fossil fuels -- must fall by 43 percent by 2030 for the world to reach the goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

"I think many countries at the end might be able to agree to phase-out if the word unabated is included because unabated will weaken the phase-out and make it more of a phase-down," John Verdieck, director of international climate policy at The Nature Conservancy, told AFP.

This would still "create a good signal because the word phase-out could be in there", said Verdieck, a former climate negotiator at the US State Department.

Ugandan climate justice activist and UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador Vanessa Nakate said there were a record 2,400 fossil fuel lobbyists at the talks and the whole process was at stake.

"If after all of this, leaders still don't have the courage to agree upon a fossil fuel phase out, then it will put in question the credibility not only of COP28 but of the entire COP process," she said.

lth-sct/pvh

OPEC Oil Cartel Tells Members to Reject Efforts to Phase Out Fossil Fuels

Charisma Madarang

ROLLING STONE
Fri, December 8, 2023 


As delegates at the 2023 COP28 UN climate change summit work to identify global climate actions by the Dec. 12 deadline, the head of the OPEC oil cartel urged the group’s members to block any deal aimed at phasing out fossil fuels.

In a letter dated Dec. 6, first reported by Reuters, Haitham Al-Ghais, secretary general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, insisted producers “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy i.e. fossil fuels rather than emissions.”

“It seems that the undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences, as the draft decision still contains options on fossil fuels phase out,” Al-Ghais wrote. “It would be unacceptable that politically motivated campaigns put our people’s prosperity and future at risk,” he added. According to the New York Times, the letter was sent to top ministers in all 13 OPEC countries, and 10 nations in an expanded organization known as OPEC Plus, which includes Russia.

In a statement to Bloomberg, Al-Ghais said that OPEC “will continue to advocate for is reducing emissions, not choosing energy sources,” adding, “The world requires major investments in all energies, including hydrocarbons, all technologies, and an understanding of the energy needs of all peoples. Energy transitions must be just, fair and inclusive.”

Earlier this week, The Guardian reported that the host of COP28 had cast doubt on whether eliminating fossil fuels would help limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, saying there is “no science” behind it.

“There is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuel is what’s going to achieve 1.5C,” Sultan Al-Jaber, CEO of United Arab Emirates state oil company ADNOC, said in November during an online SHE Changes Climate event.

Environmental activists expressed concern in January when Al-Jaber was announced to lead the 2023 COP, noting that his position as an oil executive constitutes a conflict of interest. “Like last year’s summit, we’re increasingly seeing fossil fuel interests taking control of the process and shaping it to meet their own needs,” Teresa Anderson, global lead of climate justice at ActionAid, said in a statement at the time.

Scientists at the summit released a new report warning that without “a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out,” the 1.5C threshold is unobtainable, and surpassing it is almost inevitable.

Despite the mounting calls for countries to come together to mitigate Earth’s climate crisis, the oil-rich kingdom of Saudi Arabia recently attempted to claim clean energy is bad for the environment, and called for nations to take action against wind and solar power.

More from Rolling Stone

Oil-Rich Saudi Arabia Tries to Claim Clean Energy Is Bad for the Environment


COP28 Climate Host: There's 'No Science' Behind Calls to Eliminate Fossil Fuels

OPEC push on fossil fuels draws ire at climate talks
Laurent THOMET
Sat, December 9, 2023 

Climate negotiators are scrambling to reach a compromise over the future of fossil fuels (Giuseppe CACACE)

Negotiations over the future of fossil fuels heated up at UN climate talks on Saturday, with OPEC catching flak over the oil cartel's push to block any phase-out in the final deal.

The tone has veered between optimism and concern about the pace of talks as negotiators have held marathon sessions aimed at finding a compromise on the fate of oil, gas and coal.

OPEC added fuel to the fire after it emerged that its Kuwaiti secretary general, Haitham Al Ghais, sent a letter to the group's 13 members and 10 allies this week urging them to "proactively reject" any language that "targets" fossil fuels instead of emissions.


"I think that it is quite, quite a disgusting thing that OPEC countries are pushing against getting the bar where it has to be," Spanish ecology transition minister Teresa Ribera, whose country holds the rotating EU presidency, told reporters.

Dramatically scaling up the deployment of renewable energy while winding down the production and consumption of fossil fuels is crucial to achieve the global goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

The High Ambition Coalition, a broad group of nations ranging from Barbados to France, Kenya and Pacific island states, also criticised the OPEC move.

"Nothing puts the prosperity and future of all people on Earth, including all of the citizens of OPEC countries, at greater risk than fossil fuels," said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, which chairs the coalition.

"1.5 is not negotiable, and that means an end to fossil fuels," Stege added.

- Iraq supports OPEC -

A third draft deal released Friday offers various ways to phase out of fossil fuels, but it also includes the option to not mention them at all in the final text.

Saudi Arabia had until now been the most vocal country against a phase-out or phase-down of fossil fuels.

In the OPEC letter sent Wednesday, Ghais said it "seems that the undue and disproportionate pressure against fossil fuels may reach a tipping point with irreversible consequences".

Assem Jihad, spokesman for Iraq's oil ministry, told AFP his country supports the OPEC letter.

Iraqi oil minister Hayan Abdel Ghani "has rejected attempts to target fossil fuels", Jihad said.

He added that Ghani has tasked Iraq's COP28 delegation to "ensure that the wording of the final statement puts the emphasis on world cooperation on a reduction of emissions in order to preserve the environment and climate".

But another OPEC member, COP28 host the United Arab Emirates, has taken a conciliatory tone throughout the negotiations and acknowledged that a phase-down was "inevitable".

- 'Critical stage' -

Canadian climate minister Steven Guilbeault told AFP he was "confident" that the final text would contain language on fossil fuels.

Guilbeault is among a group of ministers who have been tasked by COP28 president Sultan Al Jaber to shepherd the negotiations and find an agreement by Tuesday, when the summit is due to end.

"It's a conversation that will last a few more days," Guilbeault said.

"Different groups are talking and trying to understand on what we could agree, but it's still quite an embryonic conversation," he added.

German climate envoy Jennifer Morgan said countries were "now moving into the critical stage of negotiations" but she was "concerned that not all are constructively engaging".

Fresh calls for a phase-out were made by ministers addressing a plenary session on Saturday.

"We are extremely concerned about the pace of the negotiations, given the limited time we have left here in Dubai," said Toeolesulusulu Cedric Schuster, chairman of the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS).

AOSIS has pushed hard for a phase-out, warning that their nations were on the frontlines of climate change, with rising seas threatening their existence.

"I implore you, let this COP28 be the summit where we leaders are remembered for turning the tide," Schuster said, adding that stepping up renewable energy "cannot be a substitute for a stronger commitment to fossil fuel phase-out."

What is carbon capture and why does it keep coming up at COP28?

MICHAEL PHILLIS
Fri, December 8, 2023 


Activists participate in a demonstration calling for climate solutions at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Tuesday, Dec. 5, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 

(AP Photo/Rafiq Maqbool)

The future of fossil fuels is at the center of the United Nations climate summit in Dubai, where many activists, experts and nations are calling for an agreement to phase out the oil, gas and coal responsible for warming the planet. On the other side: energy companies and oil-rich nations with plans to keep drilling well into the future.

In the background of those discussions are carbon capture and carbon removal, technologies most, if not all, producers are counting on to meet their pledges to get to net-zero emissions. Skeptics worry the technology is being oversold to allow the industry to maintain the status quo.

“The industry needs to commit to genuinely helping the world meet its energy needs and climate goals – which means letting go of the illusion that implausibly large amounts of carbon capture are the solution,” International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol said before the start of talks.


WHAT EXACTLY IS CARBON CAPTURE?

Lots of industrial facilities like coal-fired power plants and ethanol plants produce carbon dioxide. To stop those planet-warming emissions from reaching the atmosphere, businesses can install equipment to separate that gas from all the other gases coming out of the smokestack, and transport it to where it can be permanently stored underground. And even for industries trying to reduce emissions, some are likely to always produce some carbon, like cement manufacturers that use a chemical process that releases CO2.

“We call that a mitigation technology, a way to stop the increased concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere,” said Karl Hausker, an expert on getting to net-zero emissions at World Resources Institute, a climate-focused nonprofit that supports sharp fossil fuel reductions along with a limited role for carbon capture.

The captured carbon is concentrated into a form that can be transported in a vehicle or through a pipeline to a place where it can be injected underground for long-term storage.

Then there's carbon removal. Instead of capturing carbon from a single, concentrated source, the objective is to remove carbon that's already in the atmosphere. This already happens when forests are restored, for example, but there's a push to deploy technology, too. One type directly captures it from the air, using chemicals to pull out carbon dioxide as air passes through.

For some, carbon removal is essential during a global transition to clean energy that will take years. For example, despite notable gains for electric vehicles in some countries, gas-fired cars will be operating well into the future. And some industries, like shipping and aviation, are challenging to fully decarbonize.

“We have to remove some of what’s in the atmosphere in addition to stopping the emissions,” said Jennifer Pett-Ridge, who leads the federally supported Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s carbon initiative in the U.S., the world's second-leading emitter of greenhouse gases.

HOW IS IT GOING?

Many experts say the technology to capture carbon and store it works, but it’s expensive, and it’s still in the early days of deployment.

There are about 40 large-scale carbon capture projects in operation around the world capturing roughly 45 million metric tons of carbon dioxide each year, according to the International Energy Agency. That’s a tiny amount — roughly 0.1% — of the 36.8 billion metric tons emitted globally as tallied by the Global Carbon Project.

The IEA says the history of carbon capture “has largely been one of unmet expectations.” The group analyzed how the world can achieve net zero emissions and its guide path relies heavily on lowering emissions by slashing fossil fuel use. Carbon capture is just a sliver of the solution — less than 10% — but despite its comparatively small role, its expansion is still behind schedule.

The pace of new projects is picking up, but they face significant obstacles. In the United States, there’s opposition to CO2 pipelines that move carbon to storage sites. Safety is one concern; in 2020, a CO2 pipeline in Mississippi ruptured, releasing carbon dioxide that displaced breathable air near the ground and sent dozens of people to hospitals. The federal government is working on improving safety standards.

Companies can also run into difficulty getting permits. South Dakota regulators this year, for example, rejected a construction permit for a 1,300-mile network of CO2 pipelines in the Midwest to move carbon to a storage site in Illinois.

The technology to remove carbon directly from the air exists too, but its broad deployment is even further away and especially costly.

WHO’S SUPPORTING CARBON CAPTURE?

The American Petroleum Institute says oil and gas will remain a critical energy source for decades, meaning that in order for the world to reduce its carbon emissions, rapidly expanding carbon capture technology is “key to cleaner energy use across the economy.” A check of most oil companies' plans to get to net-zero emissions also finds most of them relying on carbon capture in some way.

The Biden administration wants more investment in carbon capture and removal, too, building off America's comparatively large spending compared with the rest of the world. But it’s an industry that needs subsidies to attract private financing. The Inflation Reduction Act makes tax benefits much more generous. Investors can get a $180 per ton credit for removing carbon from the air and storing it underground, for example. And the Department of Energy has billions to support new projects.

“What we are talking about now is taking a technology that has been proven and has been tested, but applying it much more broadly and also applying it in sectors where there is a higher cost to deploy,” said Jessie Stolark, executive director of the Carbon Capture Coalition, an industry advocacy group.

Investment is picking up. The EPA is considering dozens of applications for wells that can store carbon. And in places like Louisiana and North Dakota, local leaders are fighting to attract projects and investment.

Even left-leaning California has an ambitious climate plan that incorporates carbon capture and removing carbon directly out of the air. Leaders say there’s no other way to get emissions to zero.

WHO’S AGAINST IT?

Some environmentalists argue that fossil fuel companies are holding up carbon capture to distract from the need to quickly phase out oil, gas and coal.

“The fossil fuel industry has proven itself to be dangerous and deceptive,” said Shaye Wolf, climate science director at Center for Biological Diversity.

There are other problems. Some projects haven’t met their carbon removal targets. A 2021 U.S. government accountability report said that of eight demonstration projects aimed at capturing and storing carbon from coal plants, just one had started operating at the time the report was published despite hundreds of millions of dollars in funding.

Opponents also note that carbon capture can serve to prolong the life of a polluting plant that would otherwise shut down sooner. That can especially hurt poorer, minority communities that have long lived near heavily polluting facilities.

They also note that most of the carbon captured in the U.S. now eventually gets injected into the ground to force out more oil, a process called enhanced oil recovery.

Hausker said it's essential that governments set policies that force less fossil fuel use — which can then be complemented by carbon capture and carbon removal.

“We aren’t going to ask Exxon, ‘pretty please, stop developing fossil fuels,’” he said.

___

The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/climate-and-environment
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Carbon capture a 'dangerous excuse' for burning more fossil fuels

Amanda Morrow
Thu, December 7, 2023 

© AFP - KARIM SAHIB


Week one of the Cop28 climate talks in Dubai heard much about the grand potential of carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS) as dozens of countries push for a broad pact to phase out fossil fuels. While top producers use carbon sequestering as an excuse to keep on burning coal, oil and gas – given they’re now “abated” – critics warn CCS is a fantasy solution that undermines the chances of any viable deal.

Forging the first ever global agreement to phase out fossil fuels is a crux issue at this year’s summit, where host the UAE is a major oil producer. A draft deal on Tuesday proposed "an orderly and just phase-out".

Burning fossil fuels for energy accounts for some 70 percent of emissions and is by far the biggest cause of rising temperatures. But it’s only now – after three decades of UN climate negotiations – that the issue is being tackled head on.

Opposition from countries led by Russia, Saudi Arabia and China, however, could scupper chances of a full phase-out. Meanwhile technology is being put forward as the way oil and gas producers can slash emissions while continuing to operate.

Cop28 president insists he 'respects climate science' amid fossil fuel polemic
Failing ambitions

Cop28 president Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, who is also in charge of UAE oil giant Adnoc, has been heavily promoting CCS as a climate solution.

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for CCS 

The last time carbon dioxide in the atmosphere consistently matched today's human-driven levels was 14 million years ago

Issam AHMED
Thu, December 7, 2023 

Environmental activists display placards during a demonstration at the venue of the COP28 United Nations climate summit in Dubai (Giuseppe CACACE)

The last time carbon dioxide in the atmosphere consistently matched today's human-driven levels was 14 million years ago, according to a large new study Thursday that paints a grim picture of where Earth's climate is headed.

Published in the journal Science, the paper covers the period from 66 million years ago until the present, analyzing biological and geochemical signatures from the deep past to reconstruct the historic CO2 record with greater precision than ever before.

"It really brings it home to us that what we are doing is very, very unusual in Earth's history," lead author Baerbel Hoenisch of the Columbia Climate School's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory told AFP.

Among other things, the new analysis finds the last time the air contained 420 parts per million (ppm) of carbon dioxide was between 14-16 million years ago, when there was no ice in Greenland and the ancestors of humans were just transitioning from forests to grasslands.

That is far further back in time than the 3-5 million years that prior analyses have indicated.

Until the late 1700s, atmospheric carbon dioxide was about 280 ppm, meaning humans have already caused an increase of about 50 percent of the greenhouse gas, which traps heat in the atmosphere and has warmed the planet by 1.2 degrees Celsius compared to before industrialization.

"What's important is that Homo, our species, has only evolved 3 million years ago," said Hoenisch.

"And so our civilization is tuned to sea level as it is today, to having warm tropics and cool poles and temperate regions that have a lot of rainfall."

If global CO2 emissions continue to rise we could reach between 600 - 800 ppm by the year 2100.

Those levels were last seen during the Eocene, 30-40 million years ago, before Antarctica was covered in ice and when the world's flora and fauna looked vastly different -- for example huge insects still roamed the Earth.

- Ancient plants -

The new study is the product of seven years of work by a consortium of 80 researchers across 16 countries and is now considered the updated consensus of the scientific community.

The team didn't collect new data -- rather, they synthesized, re-evaluated and validated published work based on updated science and categorized them according to confidence level, then combined the highest-rated into a new timeline.

Many people are familiar with the concept of drilling into ice sheets or glaciers to extract ice cores whose air bubbles reveal past atmospheric composition -- but these only go back so far, generally hundreds of thousands of years.

To look further into the past, paleoclimatologists use "proxies": by studying the chemical composition of ancient leaves, minerals and plankton, they can indirectly derive atmospheric carbon at a given point in time.

The researchers confirmed that the hottest period over the past 66 million years happened 50 million years ago, when CO2 spiked to as much as 1,600 ppm and temperatures were 12C hotter, before a long decline set in.

By 2.5 million years ago, carbon dioxide was 270-280 ppm, ushering in a series of ice ages.

That remained the level when modern humans arrived 400,000 years ago and persisted until our species began burning fossil fuels at large scales.

The team estimates that a doubling of CO2 is predicted to warm the planet by 5-8 degrees Celsius -- but over a long period, hundreds of thousands of years -- when increased temperatures have rippling effects through Earth systems.

For example, melting the polar ice caps would reduce the planet's ability to reflect solar radiation and become a reinforcing feedback loop.

But the new work remains directly relevant to policy makers, stressed Hoenisch.

The carbon record reveals that 56 million years ago, Earth underwent a similar rapid release of carbon dioxide, which caused massive changes to ecosystems and took some 150,000 years to dissipate.

"We are in this for a very long time, unless we sequester carbon dioxide, take it out of the atmosphere, and we stop our emissions sometime soon," she said.

ia/bgs

CNN poll: Large majority of US adults and half of Republicans agree with Biden’s goal to slash climate pollution

Ella Nilsen and Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN
Fri, December 8, 2023

Michaela Vatcheva/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Nearly two-thirds of US adults say they are worried about the threat of climate change in their communities, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS. More than half are worried about the impact of extreme weather, as the climate crisis touches every region in the form of extreme heat, devastating storms and drought.

Even more want the federal government to do something about it. A broad majority of US adults – 73% – say the federal government should develop its climate policies with the goal of cutting the country’s planet-warming pollution in half by the end of the decade.

That has been the goal of President Joe Biden, who has made tackling the climate crisis a greater priority than any other president, including through billions of dollars in tax subsidies to create more renewable energy infrastructure and help consumers buy discounted electric vehicles, solar panels and energy-efficient appliances. The Biden administration is also crafting and implementing several federal regulations designed to cut pollution from the oil and gas industry, power plants, and gas-powered vehicles.


The polling comes as nations debate the future of fossil fuels at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Vice President Kamala Harris announced at the summit last week that the US would commit another $3 billion to the global climate action fund, and the Biden administration announced new rules to slash emissions of methane – a powerful planet-warming gas – by 80% from the US oil and gas industry.

Cutting US climate pollution is a bipartisan aspiration, the CNN poll finds. Nearly all Democrats say the US should slash its greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2030, and 76% of independents and half of Republicans agree.

American voters could be presented with a stark choice on how their country addresses climate change in the 2024 election; a potential rematch between Biden – who signed the country’s biggest climate investment into law last year – and former President Donald Trump, a climate change denier who has vowed to repeal several of Biden’s signature clean-energy policies.

When it comes to climate change, Americans say by a 13-point margin that their views align with Democrats more than Republicans. Much like abortion, climate change is one of the strongest issues for Democrats, CNN’s poll finds.

Americans give Biden a 43% approval rating for his handling of environmental policy, which is several points above his overall approval rating and well above his numbers for handling the economy. But few Americans, only 2%, see climate change as the most important issue facing the country, giving higher priority to the economy and cost of living.

But climate change and clean energy are increasingly intertwined with the economy. Climate change-fueled disasters don’t just impact commerce, they also strike at the heart of the American dream: homeownership.

In some states prone to wildfires and extreme weather, the cost of home and property insurance is skyrocketing. In some cases, insurance companies are dropping coverage all together because the risk is too high. That, in turn, has damaging implications for the housing market and cost of homes, experts have told CNN.

Most US adults say humanity bears a great deal of responsibility to try to reduce climate change but believe the US and Chinese governments and the energy industry are all doing too little to fix the problem.

Americans are also finding less fault with themselves: A somewhat lower 40% of Americans say that people like them hold a great deal of responsibility to reduce climate change. Meanwhile, 58% say that they, personally, are doing the right amount to reduce their impact on the climate crisis, with 37% saying that they are doing too little.

As past polls have found, there is a profound partisan divide over how Americans feel about climate change, and what to do about it, that outweighs other factors such as age and gender. The poll finds Democrats are far more likely than Republicans to say that humanity bears a great deal of responsibility to reduce climate change (77% vs. 42%). And Democrats are 36 percentage points likelier than Republicans to say they’re very worried about the risk of climate change in the communities where they live.

But the fact that human activity is fueling the planet’s warming isn’t lost on Republicans; the poll finds about three-quarters of them think humanity has at least some responsibility to fight climate change.

The poll finds that more than 4 in 10 Americans say they’ve experienced extreme weather over the past year, with most in that group calling climate change a contributing factor. In the past few years, Americans have faced climate-fueled extreme heat, drought and flash flooding that has devastated communities.

The CNN poll was conducted by SSRS from November 1-30 among a random national sample of 1,795 adults initially reached by mail. Surveys were either conducted online or by telephone with a live interviewer. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points; it is larger for subgroups.

ICYMI

Half of Republicans in new poll support Biden push to cut emissions

Nick Robertson

THE HILL
Fri, December 8, 2023 


Among nearly three-quarters of Americans who said in a new poll that they want the federal government to design policies around a goal of halving greenhouse gas emissions by 2030, half of Republicans joined Democratic respondents, bucking party lines and showing significant support for Biden administration commitments to fighting climate change.

The CNN poll released Thursday found about two-thirds of respondents are worried about the impacts of climate change on their communities, and nearly 60 percent are worried about increasing extreme weather.

The results come as world leaders gather at the COP28 climate summit in Dubai to discuss climate change policy. Negotiations have focused on the fossil fuel industry, but they face setbacks as some nations cling to fossil fuel revenues to support their economies.

Last week, Vice President Harris pledged $3 billion at the summit to help developing countries’ climate policy, including investing in green energy.

The Biden administration has also allocated billions in tax breaks for purchasing electric vehicles, solar panel arrays and appliances, and it has implemented regulations to reduce industrial emissions.

Those policies are popular, the poll found, with about two-thirds of poll respondents saying each of the policy initiatives should either be a top priority of the government or is important.

Despite support for underlying policy, a slight majority still disapprove of how Biden has handled environmental issues, according to the poll. Only 43 percent of Americans and 11 percent of Republicans approve of Biden’s environmental record.

At the same time, another 58 percent of Americans say the federal government isn’t doing enough to fight climate change, with just a quarter saying it is doing “just the right amount” of work.

The CNN poll surveyed about 1,800 people reached by mail last month, with a margin of error of 3.2 percentage points.

U.S. climate report issues stark warnings for Midwest ag, health and infrastructure

Kavahn Mansouri
Thu, December 7, 2023

Yunyi Dai/Special to National Public Radio

A new report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program shows rising temperatures, extreme precipitation, drought and other climate-related challenges are intensifying in the Midwest. It paints a picture of major changes to lives and livelihoods, as well as the opportunity to mitigate the impact of global warming,

The fifth National Climate Assessment found as climate conditions worsen, public and environmental health and the economy of the region are all at risk.

“Rising temperatures, extreme precipitation, drought, and other climate-related events in the Midwest are impacting agriculture, ecosystems, cultural practices, health, infrastructure, and waterways,” the report states.

Hotter summers and weather that swings between extreme drought and flooding threaten crops and livestock production throughout the region. On top of that, the report notes milder winters are allowing pests that wreak havoc on crops to expand throughout the region.

The climate analysis warns that without intervention, the Midwestern states that produce roughly one-third of the world’s corn and soybeans will find it more difficult to do so. Those states include Missouri, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, Indiana and Ohio.

The Mississippi River basin is experiencing more extreme flooding and low river conditions which leads to decreased river flow, more stress on dams and other river-related infrastructure.

Since 1980, flooding alone has caused more than $49 billion in economic damage throughout the Midwest.

“That very sharp and punctuated transition in a very short period of time where you’re either feasting or going to famine is a challenge for ecosystems,” said study co-author Jeff Wood, assistant professor of biometeorology at the University of Missouri School.

The climate assessment notes authors of the report have low confidence in the region’s current efforts to mitigate these changes, but Wood said he’s hopeful that can change.

“There has been a lot of interest particularly here in Missouri,” Wood said, pointing to solutions from the USDA like leaving crops out during winter months to prevent soil erosion. “There is interest — it’s growing — but more could be done.”

Read the full assessement here.

At the COP28 climate action conference underway in the United Arab Emirates, the U.S. pledged phase out coal-fired power plants by 2035.

Coal makes up about about 40% of fossil fuel emissions. As recently as 2022, plants in Nebraska and Missouri announced delays in their closure plans.
Health & disparities

The climate assessment also warns a warming climate is worsening public health in the Midwest.

As temperatures rise, respiratory problems and air quality are expected to worsen, according to the report. Indeed, smoke pollution from wildfires, increased pollen production and the production of harmful ground-level ozone gasses have recently afflicted the Midwest.

Earlier this year, Midwest hospitals saw an uptick in respiratory cases as wildfire smoke from Canadian wildfires covered the region.

Additionally, tick-borne illnesses, including Lyme disease and other diseases carried by bugs, are likely to increase as the weather continues to warm.

The assessment’s section about the Midwest points to green infrastructure, heat-health early warning systems, and improved stormwater management systems as elements that could curb the health impacts of climate change.

The report found the U.S. is warming faster than the global average and that the effects of climate change are being felt in every part of the country, citing more extreme weather, drought and wildfires that are becoming more frequent across the country.

What’s more, the report found minority communities are more likely to face challenges due to climate change — especially Black, Hispanic and indigenous communities – because those communities typically live in areas more susceptible to the effects of climate change.

“Climate change affects us all, but it doesn’t affect us all equally,” said climate scientist Katharine Hayhoe, one of the authors of the assessment, in an article from NPR.

In the same article, Solomon Hsiang, a climate economist at the University of California, Berkeley and a lead author of the assessment said:

“The research indicates that people who are lower income have more trouble adapting [to climate change], because adaptation comes at a cost.”
Adaption action

Alice Hill, a climate expert with the Center on Foreign Relations, said there’s a reason the U.S. is lagging in the implementation of climate mitigation policies. She said advocates in the U.S. have been calling for a national adaptation strategy for climate change since at least 2013.

“We still don’t have one, and that means we haven’t defined the roles of the federal government, the roles of the state and local governments, and the roles of the private sector,” Hill said as part of an interview about the impact of climate change on housing.

“Resilience to climate change requires all levels of government as well as the private sector to work together to understand the risk, understand which choices are available, and then talk about how we finance the investments in getting ourselves to a position of greater safety,” Hill said.

Outlined in the report are opportunities in the Midwest to push back against climate challenges, including industry investment into “climate-smart” agriculture and federal investment into infrastructure to keep damage from extreme weather at bay.

This story comes from the Midwest Newsroom, an investigative journalism collaboration including St. Louis Public Radio , Iowa Public Radio, KCUR, Nebraska Public Media News, and NPR.

Holly Edgell contributed to this story.

How to adapt to climate change may be secondary at COP28, but it's key to saving lives, experts say

SIBI ARASU
Updated Fri, December 8, 2023 



COP28 Climate Summit
Activists participate in a demonstration for climate adaptation at the COP28 U.N. Climate Summit, Friday, Dec. 8, 2023, in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. 

(AP Photo/Peter Dejong)

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — As United Nations climate talks enter their second week, negotiators who are largely focused on how to curb climate change have another thing on their plates: how to adapt to the warming that's already here.

Discussions for what's known as the Global Goal on Adaptation — a commitment made in the 2015 Paris Agreement to ramp up the world's capacity to cope with climate-fueled extreme weather — are being overshadowed by negotiations on how the world is going to slash the use of fossil fuels, causing frustration among some climate campaigners in the most vulnerable countries.

Officials and activists from climate-vulnerable nations are pushing for more money to help them deal with scorching temperatures, punishing droughts and deluges and strengthening storms made worse by global warming. Major fossil fuel-emitting countries need to pay vulnerable, developing countries being battered by these events, experts and officials say, to help them avoid catastrophic humanitarian and economic losses.

"The problem is the fact that adaptation is actually the second long long-term goal of the Paris agreement,” said South Africa-based Amy Giliam Thorp of climate think-tank Power Shift Africa. The first goal is a commitment to curb warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times.

Climate talks have already pledged millions to deal with the aftereffects of extreme weather events fueled by climate change as part of a loss and damage fund, and over a hundred nations promised to triple renewable energy production globally.

Adaptation hasn't seen similar commitments at the talk so far. At a protest Friday calling for more money for adaptation, climate activist Evelyn Achan from Uganda said that “our countries, our communities are suffering so much.”

“We don’t have the money to adapt to the climate crisis and yet we do not cause the climate crisis, we are least responsible for the climate crisis. So, we're demanding for leaders to put in place adaptation finance,” she said.

Observers say a goal for adaptation is likely to be decided at the summit, but as things stand, it’s set to be only a fraction of what some nations are calling for.

At plenary remarks on Wednesday, COP28 President Sultan al-Jaber said adaptation “is a key element of climate action" and urged countries to “consider how we can make real progress to address the adaptation finance gap” between what’s been promised and what’s needed.

But Ani Dasgupta, the CEO of the World Resources Institute said he's “concerned” about what will happen to adaptation goals at COP28. “Not much is there,” he said. Dasgupta said he had expected some discussions on adaptation to be ongoing at this stage of climate talks.

“One would have expected to see some vision” with regards to adaptation, said Dasgupta. According to him, negotiators couldn’t agree to something on adaptation that they could give to the ministers. “That’s a worrying sign, so it goes with a blank slate.”

Dasgupta feels that as things stand there is a chance that fossil fuel phaseouts and adaptation goals might be used as a tradeoff on the high tables of global climate diplomacy. “Both of them are needed,” he said.

Mary Friel, Climate Policy lead at the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies said “not moving forward on adaptation would be a major failure.”

A U.N. report found that developing countries need nearly $400 billion per year to prepare for climate change but only $21 billion was given in 2021. The report also said that an additional $194 to $366 billion is needed with every passing year.

And the longer it takes to act on giving money adaptation, the higher the costs will be in future, Power Shift Africa’s Thorp said.

Negotiations on climate adaptation have been “incredibly frustrating” said Teresa Anderson, global lead of climate justice at Action Aid International, who's in Dubai, United Arab Emirates for the climate talks. “The negotiations haven’t matched the urgency and pace and the type of ambitious commitments we need to see."

The trouble is that adaptation money doesn’t give funders a return on investment, she said.

“Rich countries see mitigation action in their own interest. Wherever it happens in the world, it’s going to benefit everyone, even in the global north. Adaptation efforts and finance will only benefit people in the global south," Anderson said. “The only reason they (rich countries) apparently want to give climate finance is if it’s going to help themselves.”

Rishikesh Ram Bhandary, who tracks climate finance at the Boston University Global Development Policy Center, added that the money that has been earmarked for adaptation is also not getting out the door fast enough.

It's having real-life implications for people living on the frontlines of climate change.

Tiwonge Gondwe, a small-scale farmer who grows groundnuts, pumpkins, maize and other crops in Malawi, which is susceptible to droughts and food insecurity, said the land is becoming less fertile each year because of global warming.

“I have never received any funding from my government saying this is the mechanism to adapt to climate change,” she said. “We don’t have food, and it’s increasing hunger and poverty in my country. We need leaders to act now.” ___

Associated Press journalists Malak Harb and Seth Borenstein contributed. ___

Follow Sibi Arasu on X, formerly known as Twitter, @sibi123 ___

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP’s climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

China says Biden plan to shut it out of US battery supply chain violates WTO rules

Joe Cash
Thu, December 7, 2023 

BEIJING (Reuters) — China said on Thursday that Biden administration plans to limit Chinese content in batteries eligible for generous electric vehicle tax credits from next year violate international trade norms and will disrupt global supply chains.

The plans will make investors in the U.S. electric vehicle (EV) supply chain ineligible for tax credits should they use more than a trace amount of critical materials from China, or other countries deemed a "Foreign Entity of Concern" (FEOC).

"Targeting Chinese enterprises by excluding their products from a subsidy's scope is typical non-market orientated policy," said He Yadong, a commerce ministry spokesperson.

"Many World Trade Organization members, including China, have expressed concern about the discriminatory policy of the U.S., which violates the WTO's basic principles," he said.

China's dominant position in the global battery supply chain has prompted United States and European officials to take action over fears that cheap Chinese EVs could flood their markets.

The European Commission is currently investigating whether Chinese manufacturers benefit from unfair state subsidies.

Washington has already passed two laws explicitly excluding investors from being able to benefit from a $6 billion allocation of tax credits for batteries and critical minerals, as well as subsidies of $7,500 for every new energy vehicle produced, should they include FEOCs in their supply chains.

The term applies to China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. The rules will come into effect in 2024 for completed batteries and 2025 for the critical minerals.

President Joe Biden's administration is also proposing tough criteria, including a 25% ownership threshold, for determining whether a company is controlled by a FEOC.

"By establishing 'glass barriers', the U.S. is doing more harm than good to the development of EV technologies and the industry more broadly," He said, warning that the plans would "seriously disrupt international trade and investment".

China accounts for almost two-thirds of the world's lithium processing capacity and 75% of its cobalt capacity, both of which are used in battery manufacturing.

Analysts, though, have questioned whether China's position in global battery supply chains warrants the U.S. and EU rhetoric over the potential risks.

"There is a lot of hyperbole around this. And I'm not sure the measures the EU or the U.S. are considering match the scale of the risk," said Dan Marks, a research fellow for energy security at the Royal United Services think tank.

"What we should be saying is these strategies in Europe and the U.S. are really industrial strategies. They're just about having competitive industries that can survive."