Japan needs to rebuild fiscal space, address population ageing and reinvigorate productivity growth

Japan’s economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic but faces new challenges from weak global trade prospects.

NEWSROOM

JANUARY 13, 2024 

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/

photo: Unsplash

Japan’s economy has recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic but faces new challenges from weak global trade prospects. Policy should now focus on ensuring fiscal sustainability, boosting productivity growth, and addressing the economic and social impacts of rapid population ageing. 

The latest OECD Economic Survey of Japan says that GDP grew by 1.9% in 2023 and will continue to steadily grow by 1.0% in 2024 and 1.1% in 2025, mostly driven by domestic demand as global uncertainty weighs on external demand. Headline consumer price inflation is projected to slowly come down to 2.6% in 2024, from 3.2% in 2023, and stabilise at 2% in 2025 as government subsidies end and wage growth gains traction. The strong outcome of the latest wage negotiations, the highest in three decades, points towards a virtuous cycle where rising prices contribute to growing wages and consumption, stabilising inflation close to the official target of 2%. 

Gross public debt reached an unprecedented level of 245% of GDP in 2022 in the context of broad public support during the pandemic and energy crisis and is projected to only slightly decline over the coming years to 243% in 2024 and 242% in 2025. Rebuilding fiscal space and ensuring debt sustainability should be prioritised. Japan needs a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation strategy that puts public debt levels on a downward path including boosting public revenues and increasing the efficiency of expenditures.  

Containing spending growth requires health and long-term care reforms, such as boosting out-of-pocket payments for the more affluent elderly through means-testing, and shifting long-term care out of hospitals. To boost revenues, Japan should gradually increase the consumption (value-added) tax, as the current rate is among the lowest in the OECD. 

Reforms to available fiscal support schemes for investments would encourage more innovations from smaller firms and start-ups that are key to boost productivity and potential growth. Public support to research and development investment is high, but more co-operation between public research and the private sector and better diffusion of innovation is needed. Improving conditions for innovation capital, such as the undersized venture capital, and encouraging the use of mergers and acquisitions, would help. 

“Japan was pursuing a broad structural reform agenda when the pandemic hit. These reforms were having a positive impact, growing workforce participation levels of women and older workers, and supporting Japan’s economic recovery from the pandemic,”OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said. “Rapid demographic change is increasingly putting pressure on the public budget though. Reforms are needed to ensure debt sustainability to prepare for these future spending pressures as well as to increase resilience towards future shocks. Reviving productivity growth is key to raising growth and addressing demographic challenges by fostering innovation and making better use of the shrinking workforce.”  

Past labour market reforms including the Work Style reforms have raised employment by encouraging women to take up regular work through more flexible working conditions and relaxing regulations for older workers. More efforts are needed to further increase labour force participation among women and older persons and attract more talented foreign workers, in particular in sectors with significant labour shortages, to help limit demographic headwinds. Policies to support families and children and lower labour market dualism could help reverse the decline in the fertility rate and boost female employment. Abolishing the right of firms to set mandatory retirement, typically at age 60, would increase employment and weaken the role of seniority in setting wages.  

Despite some progress in reducing carbon emissions and expanding green energy sources, it will be challenging for Japan to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. Projected contributions to emission reductions from innovative technologies, which are not yet cost effective, and nuclear power come with uncertainties. Improving contingency planning by mapping out scenarios for the development of energy sources is key. Ongoing efforts to boost the modest contribution of renewables to electricity supply should be stepped up by enhancing the electricity grid. 

The Silent Killer in Central Asia: How Environmental Degradation Leads to Societal Collapse

This paper sheds light on an often overlooked link between environmental degradation and societal collapse.


BY FERUZBEK DAMIROV
JANUARY 12, 2024

https://moderndiplomacy.eu

Source: Author's photo "The dried up bottom of the Aral Sea"

This paper sheds light on an often overlooked link between environmental degradation and societal collapse. By emphasizing how environmental disasters, from historical droughts to present-day pollution, have led to societal collapse, highlighting the need for urgent environmental action.

Environmental degradation poses serious threats to the social and economic fabric of a country or region. When environmental decline reaches extreme levels, it can disrupt essential life-supporting systems, leading to issues such as food and water scarcity, public health crises, and the displacement of populations. The economic repercussions can be significant, impacting industries, agriculture, and overall economic stability. Numerous studies have highlighted that environmental degradation is a fundamental factor leading to social collapse.

The study by Zijun Wan and Jia Han, “On the Relationship Between Societal Collapse and Environmental Factors,” underscores the critical role of megadroughts in the historical collapse of various societies. It specifically points out how prolonged droughts in regions like the Ming Dynasty, India, Darfur, and Syria led to significant agricultural failures. These environmental stresses contributed to famines and societal instability, culminating in the eventual collapse of these societies.

Similarly, George Anabui Oshoriamhe’s study in the Niger Delta reveals the far-reaching impacts of environmental degradation on social structures. Disappearing forests and oil spills aren’t merely ecological tragedies; they fracture family units, erode community leadership, and jeopardize education and gender equality. This decline not only threatens the region’s social fabric but also poses a risk to Nigeria’s socio-economic stability and potentially even global oil markets.

Further underscoring the gravity of environmental threats, Robert Kaplan’s “The Coming Anarchy” posits it as a key driver of societal collapse. The interplay of dwindling natural resources and political disintegration, as seen in parts of West Africa, fosters escalating conflicts and weakens state structures. This grim scenario highlights the role environmental issues play in undermining global stability.

 Another recent example of how environmental degradation is beginning to destroy the fabric of society is the Aral Sea disaster, one of the largest and most infamous global environmental disasters in recent history, which severely affected the countries and people of Central Asia. The drying up of the Aral Sea has led to increased salinity and water pollution, with serious health consequences for the local population. The number of diseases such as respiratory diseases,

hepatitis and anemia has increased dramatically. Dust and sand from the dried seabed, containing harmful herbicides and pesticides, are carried hundreds of kilometers from the sea to residential areas. The Aral Sea was an important food source, but the increased salinity has led to the extinction of more than 20 different fish species by 1983. The fisheries and the communities that depended on them collapsed. The dust and salt storms from the dried bed of the sea have led to land degradation, floral and faunal biodiversity losses, degradation of biotic communities around the delta, and climate change around the former shoreline. The environmental disaster has led to increased ecological migration. The degradation of the local economy and livelihood opportunities, such as fishing and hunting, along with the loss of cultural heritage for the local population, have resulted in increased internal and external migration. The health problems and declining living conditions have also contributed to this migration. Consequently, there has been a rise in poverty and social inequality, exacerbating the existing challenges faced by the affected communities.

The already critical environmental situation could further deteriorate and expand if timely action is not taken in Central Asia. The implementation of the Qush-Tepa Canal project by the Taliban in Afghanistan is expected to result in significant and diverse environmental impacts, many of which may be irreversible. The magnitude of these impacts is likely to extend well beyond the immediate areas of construction and operation. In this context, Dr. Eric Rudenschild’s question, “Is it too late to save Central Asia?” becomes particularly relevant to the areas downstream of the Amu Darya River. Given this scenario, the downstream countries Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan in cooperation with Afghanistan, should undertake a comprehensive Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA), complemented by the development of an Environmental Management Plan (EMP), to effectively address and manage these potential environmental problems.

If immediate measures for cross-border conservation of biodiversity are not implemented, numerous rare and vulnerable species of flora and fauna risk being lost forever, further destabilizing the current ecological balance. The Tugai forests along the Amu Darya basin are particularly at risk. Presently, the lower Amu Darya basin is experiencing environmental degradation due to water scarcity and pollution, adversely affecting its biodiversity. According to the Uzbek State Committee for Nature Protection, as much as 90% of the Tugai, a unique variety of riparian forest, has already been decimated in the Amu Darya delta. This significant loss of Tugai forests has led to a marked reduction in livelihood opportunities, especially for those dependent on cattle grazing. In the downstream section of the basin, the conservation of these Tugai ecosystems is increasingly challenged by the salinity of the irrigated runoff waters. Additionally, the construction of the Qush-Tepa canal could exacerbate this issue, potentially leading to widespread salinization that affects not only Afghanistan but also the broader region. Such an outcome would further stress the already fragile ecosystems and the economies that depend on them.

Uzbekistan recently adopted a forward-looking development strategy until 2030. This strategy includes significant environmental components, such as the ambitious goal of planting 200 million tree bushes annually and increasing forest plantations in the Aral Sea region, which are critical to improving air quality and combating desertification. However, if water resources are constrained due to the external factors like Qosh-Tepa canal project, or climate change sustaining these green areas could become challenging. The strategy must ensure adequate water supply for these green spaces, possibly through the use of treated wastewater or other non-traditional water sources.

In conclusion, the environmental situation in Central Asia, particularly Priaralie region’s ecosystem expected to have adverse environmental impact by the Qush-Tepa Canal, demands urgent collaborative action. The canal’s construction carries grave risks of lasting environmental harm and extensive salinization, endangering fragile ecosystems and livelihoods. Transboundary conservation is essential to safeguard vulnerable species and maintain ecological balance. This scenario highlights the need for thorough environmental assessments and management plans for ecological and economic stability. The failure to take immediate action could have serious consequences for the social stability of the countries affected, supporting the broader concerns expressed in the article on the link between environmental degradation and social stability.

Feruzbek Damirov

Feruzbek Damirov specialises in water governance and resource management, focusing on innovative water-saving technologies. He holds a Bachelor's in Water Resources Engineering and is pursuing a Master's in Integrated Water Resources Management at the German-Kazakh University. Currently interning at the Center for Progressive Reforms, he is enhancing his skills in policy and reform initiatives. A recipient of prestigious awards and scholarships, Feruzbek is a proactive youth delegate and an advocate for climate and water issues.

Signs of a New International Order
The World Majority countries do not set themselves 

the task of breaking the existing international order

and destroying globalisation.

BY TIMOFEY BORDACHEV
JANUARY 13, 2024

The World Majority countries do not set themselves the task of breaking the existing international order and destroying globalisation. However, they are gradually increasing the degree of their independence in determining foreign policy decisions and economic partnerships, writes Valdai Club Programme Director Timofei Bordachev.

The main events and processes in international politics throughout 2023 have shown that the origin of the fundamental changes taking place is natural, and the main processes are constructive. That is why future historians will consider the year 2023 to be when people stopped perceiving the new reality dramatically and began to develop a constructive attitude towards it. In other words, it was in 2023 that many of us finally realized that the collapse of the past international order wasn’t a disaster, and contains far more positive things for the development of the whole world.

Since the nature of international politics is tragic, it will always be accompanied by shocks and horrors of war, which make our individual disappointments about unfulfilled expectations seem naive. Therefore, it is better for observers to limit the public display of their optimistic expectations. However, there is reason to think that behind all the dramas we are observing there loom the features of the balance which will serve as the basis for a relatively peaceful and fair order in the future. Moreover, some features and characteristics of this order have already become noticeable.

It is especially inspiring that the behaviour of the powers acting as their bearers is not destructive to the foundations of relations between states or aimed at inciting full-scale military confrontations. Among these signs of a new international order, several of the most important features can be seen. First, the emergence of democratic multipolarity, symbolized by the BRICS association. Second, the gradual erosion of the monopoly of a narrow group of states in various sectors of the world economy. Third, the revival of foreign policy activity of the majority of countries, which we define as the World Majority: a group of states that do not set for themselves revolutionary tasks, but strive to strengthen their independence in world affairs and determine their own future.

All these bright phenomena of world politics in 2023 show that political changes, if we use Edward Carr’s definition from his The Twenty Years’ Crisis: 1919–1939 have a much higher probability than revolutionary changes, which have always led humanity to world wars. Now we see that even the most conservative forces in international affairs, united in military-political blocs led by the United States, are also either moving towards a revision of the order in which they had a privileged position, or are waging defensive battles, the task of which is to create conditions for future negotiations. In the same case, when it comes to the forces of progress, led by the BRICS group, the struggle for change also has the character of a revision of the international order, but not its decisive destruction. This allows the observer to be cautiously optimistic about our common future.

At the same time, the revisionist approach on the part of the actual opponents of the West seems to us to be the most important characteristic of the changes taking place. Perhaps for the first time, powers whose practical activities are aimed at revising unjust orders and customs, firstly, rely on the existing body of international law, and, secondly, do not set themselves the task of neutralizing powers with which they are in a state of direct or indirect conflict. What role the phenomenon of significant stockpiles of nuclear weapons at the disposal of the five powers plays in this remains to be repeatedly comprehended by historians. However, if it is decisive, it is the consequences, and not just the cause, that have paramount importance for us.

The BRICS group was created in an era when the dominance of the United States and its closest European allies in world affairs was almost complete; they could act as the main distributors of global wealth and, most importantly, this situation was relatively satisfactory from the standpoint of other states. This is another phenomenon of the international order to which we are now saying goodbye, and also an indication of how it is happening: never before has injustice in relation to the interests of the majority of the world’s countries, as well as the complete satisfaction with its position of a narrow group of powers, been so effectively balanced by the benefits extracted by practically everyone from globalisation. One can even assume that the state of affairs we know as the Liberal World Order was, in its nature and content, a transitional period between the absolute tyranny of the European empires of the 19th century and the new international order that is only now emerging. It arose in this capacity precisely as a response to the inevitable process of the emergence of many sovereign states, which in the last century acquired a universal character.

The countries that created BRICS in 2006 initially set themselves the task of increasing their influence on world affairs in order to make global development more consistent with their own interests. They did not claim to destroy the US-led world order, and they still haven’t come up with such an ambitious programme. At the same time, the main feature of this association — the sovereign equality of the participants — initially distinguished them from the existing formal and informal coalitions of the West, at the centre of which is the unquestionable power of the United States over the main actions of its allies in the field of foreign policy and security. The BRICS group, by its composition, could not be like this and there is no risk of a similar arrangement of relations between its members.

However, as the crisis of the Liberal World Order grew, the influence and role of the BRICS in world affairs gradually increased. First of all, the political significance of the group has grown — namely, as a way to identify an alternative to Western approaches to solve the problems of global development and the broader international agenda. At the same time, the countries of the group still do not formulate tasks that could be considered a direct challenge to the West or a reflection of a vision of an “ideal” world order, comparable in clarity to the Western one. This is, in our opinion, an inevitable consequence of the lack of hegemony of one power in the group, which does not prevent the emergence of common interests within it, but deprives it of the opportunity to set goals and objectives, the implementation of which requires the subordination of everyone to the leader’s will.

Despite its characteristics and differences from traditional institutions, the BRICS group has undoubtedly become the main phenomenon of international politics in 2023. The decision to expand the group, taken in August 2023, will within a few weeks make it a community of large and medium-sized states. What becomes important is how, with a new composition of participants, and developing partnerships with other powers, the BRICS group will move towards the implementation of its main tasks regarding the world economy — creating “safety nets” that allow globalisation to stay afloat in conditions where its previous leaders in the West can no longer fully perform these functions. The creation of alternative financial mechanisms and the limitation of the monopoly position of the US dollar are now no longer ways of destroying the old world order, but the tools necessary to prevent the global economy from plunging into chaos.

This will allow for the preservation of the most important achievements of globalisation — universal market openness, free trade and technological exchange. That is, precisely those structural capabilities which the independent policies of the countries of the World Majority rely on. These states do not set themselves the task of breaking the existing international order and destroying globalisation. However, they are gradually increasing the degree of their independence in determining foreign policy decisions and economic partnerships. In general, the countries of the World Majority are divided into two groups. Countries of the first group are already confidently building their own independent trajectories to achieve the main development goals and act as partners of both the West and its leading opponents. Countries of the second group are only increasing the level of their demands on the United States and its allies regarding the conditions for maintaining formally respectful relations. However, both types of behaviour are signs of a new era in international politics.

https://moderndiplomacy.eu/

From our partner RIAC

Timofey Bordachev

PhD in Political Science, Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club; Academic supervisor of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies, HSE University, RIAC Member

Classified UFO briefing: House members emerge with mixed feelings

BY ELLEN MITCHELL - 01/12/24 - THE HILL




House lawmakers left a Friday classified briefing on UFOs, referred to as unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) by the government, with mixed feelings, some frustrated with the limited information and some claiming they were given more clarity on last summer’s explosive testimony on the unexplained sightings.

The closed-door briefing at the Capitol Building — where Thomas Monheim, inspector general of the intelligence community, spoke with House Oversight and Accountability Committee members — lasted about 90 minutes and was meant to improve transparency around the government’s knowledge of UAP.

The secretive meeting comes after a hearing in July when the three former Defense Department officials told the panel’s national security subcommittee that UAP sightings could pose national security risks.

The public hearing featured jaw-dropping testimony from former military intelligence officer and whistleblower David Grusch, who asserted the Pentagon and other agencies are withholding information about UAP — including shrouding a “multi-decade” program trying to reverse engineer nonhuman technology the U.S. government has retrieved from crash sites and now possesses. The Pentagon denies his claims.

But several lawmakers emerged from the briefing saying they barely gleaned any new information about Grusch’s accusations.

“Let’s just say that all of us were very interested in the substance of his claims, and unfortunately, I didn’t get the answers that I was hoping for,” said Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), who was one of several members irked with the lack of new material at the briefing.

Rep. Tim Burchett (R-Tenn.), meanwhile, said the briefing was just “more of the same.”

“It’s very compartmentalized; it’s like looking down the barrel of a .22 rifle. All they know is just right in that little circle,” he told reporters. “Now it’s just whack-a-mole — you go to the next [briefing], until we get some answers.”


Burchett, who says he believes in the existence of extraterrestrial life and accuses the U.S. government of covering up evidence of it, added that what was discussed Friday “verified what I thought.”

And Rep. Andy Ogles (R-Tenn.) — part of the UAP Caucus but not the Oversight Committee — said what “most Americans fear is true,” claiming there is a “concerted effort to conceal as much information as possible — both in Congress and to the general public.”

“I asked very specific questions and was unable to get specific answers,” he said. “And so that’s a problem, and we’re not going to stop until we get the truth.”


But others were more optimistic, with Rep Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) telling reporters that the briefing gave lawmakers “a direction to go next, and that’s the key thing.”

“I think that some people were looking for things. This was not the venue to determine those things, but for me, I got a lot of clarity,” he added.

Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.), meanwhile, said it’s reasonable to contend that “everyone that was in the room received probably new information.”

Garcia earlier this week introduced the Safe Airspace for Americans Act, along with Rep. Glenn Grothman (R-Wis.). The bill is meant to close the gap in UAP reporting by enabling civilian pilots and personnel to report encounters with the Federal Aviation Administration, which would send reports to the Pentagon’s All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, in exchange for legal safeguards.

The secrecy around UAP has frustrated and confused lawmakers, who argue that transparency on the topic is crucial for national security.

The most publicly visible UAP sightings have been relayed by military pilots, with some even appearing to capture the phenomena on camera.


But lawmakers have argued that when they try to get more information as to what exactly is happening and what the government knows, they’ve been stonewalled by the intelligence community, and even from within their own ranks.

“This is not about whether there are aliens or there are not aliens,” Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.), a member of the UAP Caucus, said in early December. “The problem is when we ask those questions, rather than being provided information that would prove it false, they stonewall the information, and that is what piques the interest.”

Lawmakers investigating UAPs, or UFOs, remain frustrated after closed-door briefing with government watchdog


By Stefan Becket
January 12, 2024 / CBS News

Washington — House lawmakers emerging from a classified, closed-door briefing with an internal government watchdog on Friday said they remained frustrated in their attempts to get more information about explosive whistleblower claims made about unidentified anomalous phenomena, or UAPs.

Thomas Monheim, the inspector general of the intelligence community, briefed members of the House Oversight Committee's national security subcommittee on Capitol Hill. The meeting came months after the subcommittee held a high-profile public hearing that featured tantalizing testimony from a former military intelligence officer-turned-whistleblower named David Grusch.

At the hearing in July, Grusch said he was informed of "a multi-decade UAP crash retrieval and reverse-engineering program" and accused the military of misappropriating funds to shield these operations from congressional oversight. He claimed he had interviewed officials who had direct knowledge of aircraft with "nonhuman" origins, and that so-called "biologics" were recovered from some craft. The Pentagon denied his claims.

The subcommittee has been leading the charge to improve transparency about what the government knows about anomalous phenomena. Rep. Glenn Grothman, a Republican from Wisconsin and the subcommittee's chairman, said before Friday's meeting that lawmakers were looking "to track down exactly what the military thinks of individual instances of these objects flying around."
The UAP briefing

Several lawmakers who emerged from the briefing on Capitol Hill said they were frustrated by the lack of new information about Grusch's allegations. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, a Democrat from Illinois, told reporters that lawmakers "haven't gotten the answers that we need."


"Everybody is wondering about the substance of those claims. And until we actually look at those specifically, and try to get answers about those, those claims are just going to be out there," he said. "And so that's what we needed to kind of delve into. And unfortunately, I just wasted time in there not kind of figuring out whether those were true."

From left, Ryan Graves, David Grusch and David Fravor arrive for a House subcommittee hearing on unidentified anomalous phenomena on July 26, 2023.

DREW ANGERER / GETTY IMAGES

GOP Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee said the subcommittee was playing "Whack-a-Mole" in its efforts to elicit information from the executive branch: "You go to the next [briefing], until we get some answers."

Others struck a more positive tone. Rep. Robert Garcia, the top Democrat on the subcommittee, said he "would have loved to receive much more information," but added that "it's reasonable to say that everyone that was in the room received probably new information."

Garcia and Grothmann unveiled a new bipartisan bill this week that would enable civilian pilots and personnel to report UAP encounters with the FAA, which would then be required to send those reports to the Pentagon office investigating the phenomena. The bill, known as the Safe Airspace for Americans Act, would also offer protections for those who come forward.

Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida said the meeting was "the first real briefing that we've had, that we've now made, I would say, progress on some of the claims Mr. Grusch has made."

"This is the first time we kind of got a ruling on what the IG thinks of those claims. And so this meeting, unlike the one we had previously when we did this briefing, this one actually moved the needle," Moskowitz said.
What are UAPs?

"Unidentified anomalous phenomena" is the government's formal term for what used to be called unidentified flying objects, or UFOs. They encompass a broad range of strange objects or data points detected in the air, on land or at sea.

The most well-known UAPs have been reported by military pilots, who typically describe round or cylindrical objects traveling at impossibly high speeds with no apparent means of propulsion. Some of the objects have been caught on video.

The military has made a point of improving avenues for pilots to report UAPs in recent years and worked to reduce the stigma once associated with doing so. The Pentagon office dedicated to examining the encounters has received hundreds of reports in recent years.

Many UAP reports have been shown to have innocuous origins, but a subset has defied easy explanation. The issue has gained renewed attention from lawmakers over the past few years, with heightened concerns about the national security implications of unidentified objects flying in U.S. airspace.

Scientists assert 'alien mummies' in Peru are really dolls made from Earthly bones

A picture of a study carried out by the Institute of Legal Medicine of Peru on the 'alien mummies' that concluded that they are dolls made with animal bones is displayed in Lima

By Marco Aquino Fri, 

January 12, 2024 

LIMA (Reuters) - A pair of "alien mummies" that mysteriously turned up at the airport in Peru's capital last October have entirely Earthly origins, according to a scientific analysis revealed on Friday.

The two small specimens were described as humanoid dolls by experts at a press conference in Lima, and likely fashioned from both human and animal parts. A separate three-fingered hand believed to be from Peru's Nazca region was also analyzed, with experts ruling out any connection to alien life.

"They're not extraterrestrials. They're dolls made from animal bones from this planet joined together with modern synthetic glue," said Flavio Estrada, an archeologist with Peru's Institute for Legal Medicine and Forensic Sciences.

"It's totally a made-up story," Estrada added.

The two figurines turned up in the Lima airport offices of courier DHL in a cardboard box, and were made to look like mummified bodies dressed in traditional Andean attire. Some media outlets subsequently speculated about possible alien origin.

Last September, two tiny mummified bodies with elongated heads and hands with three fingers were featured at a Mexican congressional hearing, generating widespread media coverage. Mexican journalist and UFO enthusiast Jaime Maussan claimed those bodies were about 1,000 years old and recovered from Peru in 2017, but not related to any known species.

Most experts later dismissed them as a fraud, possibly mutilated ancient human mummies combined with animal parts, but certainly from Earth.

At the Lima press conference on Friday, which was organized by Peru's culture ministry, experts did not say that the dolls found in the DHL office were related to the bodies presented in Mexico, and they stressed that the remains in Mexico are also not extraterrestrial.

(Reporting by Marco Aquino; Writing by David Alire Garcia; Editing by Will Dunham)

Peruvian researchers rule out aliens as the creators of 2 mysterious dolls
Katherine Tangalakis-Lippert,Associated Press
Fri, January 12, 2024 


Forensic archaeologist Flavio Estrada from Peru's prosecutor's office shows a doll, which was seized by authorities before it was shipped to Mexico, during a press conference to explain what it is made of at the Archeology Museum in Lima, Peru.Martin Mejia via AP

Two humanoid dolls seized from a shipment to Mexico have been studied by Peruvian forensic experts.


Rumors circled that the dolls had been created by aliens, but experts found that wasn't the case.


Instead, the mysterious figures were found to have been made of paper, glue, and animal bones.

At least we know they're not aliens, forensic experts in Peru said Friday about two humanoid doll-like figures and an apparent three-fingered hand that was seized by customs authorities in the South American country last year from a shipment heading to Mexico.

After studying the objects, forensic experts with Peru's prosecutor's office said human hands made the objects with paper, glue, metal, and bones from humans and animals.

The findings quash some people's belief that the figures come from an "alien center or come from another planet, all of which is totally false," said forensic archaeologist Flavio Estrada, who led the analysis.

"The conclusion is simple: they are dolls assembled with bones of animals from this planet, with modern synthetic glues, therefore they were not assembled during pre-Hispanic times," Estrada told reporters. "They are not extraterrestrials; they are not aliens."

The prosecutor's office has not yet determined who owns the objects. Officials on Friday would only say that a Mexican citizen was the intended recipient of the objects before customs agents seized them in October.

Dolls seized by authorities are displayed during a press conference to explain what they are made of at the Archeology Museum in Lima, Peru.Martin Mejia via AP

The country of Peru has long inspired speculation about alien visits to Earth, with its famous Nazca lines and iconic temples of Macchu Picchu drawing the attention of skeptics who argue extraterrestrials are the only explanation for such tremendous feats of engineering and ancient architectural development.

But the lack of scientific evidence to support those theories doesn't stop them from trying to pass off mysterious discoveries as proof of otherworldly visitors.

Mexican journalist José Jaime Maussan and some Mexican lawmakers became the subject of international ridicule in September when he went before the country's congress to present two boxes with supposed mummies found in Peru.

He and others claimed they were "non-human beings that are not part of our terrestrial evolution."

In November, Maussan returned to Mexico's congress with a group of Peruvian doctors and spent more than three hours pressing the case for "non-human beings" that he said were found in Peru, where he made similar claims in 2017. A report by the Peruvian prosecutor's office that year found that alleged alien bodies were "recently manufactured dolls, which have been covered with a mixture of paper and synthetic glue to simulate the presence of skin."

"They are not the remains of ancestral aliens that they have tried to present," the 2017 report stated.

Experts on Friday showed reporters a couple of 2-foot-long dolls dressed in red, orange and green clothes. They said examinations showed the bones of birds, dogs, and other animals were used to create the dolls.

Meanwhile, an alleged three-finger hand was subjected to X-ray examinations. Estrada said the "very poorly" built hand was created with human bones.

They're not aliens. That's the verdict from Peru officials who seized 2 doll-like figures
Associated Press
Updated Fri, January 12, 2024



Forensic archaeologist Flavio Estrada from Peru's prosecutor's office shows a doll, which was seized by authorities before it was shipped to Mexico, during a press conference to explain what it is made of at the Archeology Museum in Lima, Peru, Friday, Jan. 12, 2024. According to Estrada, two dolls and a three-fingered hand are constructed of paper, glue, metal, human and animal bones.

 (AP Photo/Martin Mejia)

LIMA, Peru (AP) — Aliens they are not. That’s what forensic experts in Peru said Friday about two doll-like figures and an alleged three-fingered hand that customs authorities in the South American country seized last year from a shipment heading to Mexico.

The forensic experts with Peru’s prosecutor’s office said the objects were made with paper, glue, metal and human and animal bones.

The findings quash some people’s belief that the figures come from an “alien center or come from another planet, all of which is totally false,” said forensic archaeologist Flavio Estrada, who led the analysis.

“The conclusion is simple: they are dolls assembled with bones of animals from this planet, with modern synthetic glues, therefore they were not assembled during pre-Hispanic times,” Estrada told reporters. "They are not extraterrestrials; they are not aliens.”

The prosecutor’s office has not yet determined who owns the objects. Officials on Friday would only say that a Mexican citizen was the intended recipient of the objects before they were seized by customs agents in October.

Mexican journalist José Jaime Maussan and some Mexican lawmakers became the subject of international ridicule in September when he went before the country's congress to present two boxes with supposed mummies found in Peru.

He along with others claimed they were “non-human beings that are not part of our terrestrial evolution.”

In November, Maussan returned to Mexico’s congress with a group of Peruvian doctors and spent more than three hours pressing the case for “non-human beings” that he said were found in Peru, where he made similar claims in 2017. A report by the Peruvian prosecutor’s office that year found that alleged alien bodies were actually “recently manufactured dolls, which have been covered with a mixture of paper and synthetic glue to simulate the presence of skin.”

“They are not the remains of ancestral aliens that they have tried to present,” the 2017 report stated.

Experts on Friday showed reporters a couple of 2-foot-long dolls dressed in red, orange and green clothes. They said examinations showed the bones of birds, dogs and other animals were used to create the dolls.

Meanwhile, an alleged three-finger hand was subjected to X-ray examinations. Estrada said the “very poorly” built hand was created with human bones.

Rights suppressed, threatened worldwide, group says

BY LAUREN IRWIN - 01/12/24 - THE HILL

Destruction from Israeli aerial bombardment is seen in Gaza City, on Oct. 11, 2023. After 11 weeks of war in Gaza, the Israeli military campaign against Hamas now sits among the deadliest and most destructive in history. The Palestinian death toll is approaching 20,000 and satellite data shows that one-third of structures across the tiny enclave have been destroyed. 

(AP Photo/Adel Hana, File) ADEL HANA AP

Last year, human rights were suppressed and challenged around the world as wars waged on and began, climate-fueled disasters increased, economic inequality worsened and discrimination against marginalized communities continued, Human Rights Watch (HRW) declared.

In a new report, the global nongovernmental organization focused on human rights called on governments internationally to protect and defend human rights “with the urgency, vigor, and persistence needed” to address existential challenges posted for people around the world.

“We only have to look at the human rights challenges of 2023 to tell us what we need to do differently in 2024,” the report said.

The report highlighted the war in Gaza and the humanitarian crisis facing Palestinian people as Israel continues its operations against Hamas for its Oct. 7 attack. More than 23,000 people have been killed and civilians have been displaced and are at risk of infection and starvation because of the war.

The report called out governments that have spoken out against certain international crises, like the war between Russia and Ukraine, and not crimes committed by other governments, including Chinese “crimes against humanity in Xinjiang.”

“When governments pick and choose which obligations to enforce, they perpetuate injustice not only in the present but in the future for those whose rights have been sacrificed,” HRW wrote.

The report criticized the actions of various governments around the world — including the United Arab Emirates, the United States, Vietnam, Australia and countries in Europe — that have triggered “the nefarious use of vague laws” that target climate activists and deter efforts to confront the crisis.

Deadly wildfires swept parts of Canada and Europe, and governments struggled to respond to the world’s hottest year on record. Storms wreaked havoc on millions in Bangladesh and Libya, HRW wrote.

Despite the deterioration of human rights last year, HRW said progress was made on many fronts, thanks to institutions that “challenge those who wield political power.” The group called on governments international to increase support for groups that solidify human rights protections.

“These human rights crises demonstrate the urgency of all governments applying longstanding and mutually agreed principles of international human rights law everywhere,” HRW wrote. “Upholding human rights consistently, across the board, no matter who the victims are or where the rights violations are being committed, is the only way to build the world we want to live in.”

Tunisia government shows further regression in terms of human rights: HRW reports

January 12, 2024 

Tunisian President Kais Saied 

[TUNISIAN PRESIDENCY/Anadolu Agency]


The Tunisian government showed further regression in terms of human rights and the rule of law during 2023 in the absence of genuine checks and balances on President Kais Saied’s power, Human Rights Watch (HRW) said today in its World Report 2024.

HRW’s report says, in 2023, Tunisian authorities intensified their repression against the opposition and other critical voices, imprisoning several dozen people on dubious and manifestly political charges.

The report adds that President Kais Saied continued to wield almost unchallenged power after eliminating nearly all institutional checks and balances on executive power.

Beginning in February, Tunisian authorities stepped up politically motivated arrests and prosecutions of opposition figures of various political tendencies, lawyers, activists and journalists, the report says.

At least 40 opponents or individuals deemed critical of the authorities were behind bars as of December, with most of them accused of “conspiracy against state security” or dubious terrorism related charges, often merely for their peaceful speech or activism.

At least 27 lawyers faced civil or military prosecution as of September.

During 2023, the Tunisian police, military, National Guard, including the coast guard, committed serious abuses against Black African migrants, HRW reports.

The killing of Gaza’s environment

How Israel's bombing campaign has made the strip increasingly unlivable



JOSHUA FRANK
JAN 13, 2024

On a picturesque beach in central Gaza, a mile north of the now-flattened Al-Shati refugee camp, long black pipes snake through hills of white sand before disappearing underground. An image released by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) shows dozens of soldiers laying pipelines and what appear to be mobile pumping stations that are to take water from the Mediterranean Sea and hose it into underground tunnels. The plan, according to various reports, is to flood the vast network of underground shafts and tunnels Hamas has reportedly built and used to carry out its operations.

“I won’t talk about specifics, but they include explosives to destroy and other means to prevent Hamas operatives from using the tunnels to harm our soldiers,” said IDF Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi. “[Any] means which give us an advantage over the enemy that [uses the tunnels], deprives it of this asset, is a means that we are evaluating using. This is a good idea…”

While Israel is already test-running its flood strategy, it’s not the first time Hamas’s tunnels have been subjected to sabotage by seawater. In 2013, neighboring Egypt began flooding Hamas-controlled tunnels that were allegedly being used to smuggle goods between the country’s Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip. For more than two years, water from the Mediterranean was flushed into the tunnel system, wreaking havoc on Gaza’s environment. Groundwater supplies were quickly polluted with salt brine and, as a result, the dirt became saturated and unstable, causing the ground to collapse and killing numerous people. Once fertile agricultural fields were transformed into salinated pits of mud, and clean drinking water, already in short supply in Gaza, was further degraded.

Israel’s current strategy to drown Hamas’s tunnels will no doubt cause similar, irreparable damage. “It is important to keep in mind,” warns Juliane Schillinger, a researcher at the University of Twente in the Netherlands, “that we are not just talking about water with a high salt content here — seawater along the Mediterranean coast is also polluted with untreated wastewater, which is continuously discharged into the Mediterranean from Gaza’s dysfunctional sewage system.”

This, of course, appears to be part of a broader Israeli objective — not just to dismantle Hamas’s military capabilities but to further degrade and destroy Gaza’s imperiled aquifers (already polluted with sewage that’s leaked from dilapidated pipes). Israeli officials have openly admitted their goal is to ensure that Gaza will be an unlivable place once they end their merciless military campaign.

“We are fighting human animals, and we are acting accordingly,” Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said shortly after the Hamas attack of October 7th. “We will eliminate everything — they will regret it.”

And Israel is now keeping its promise.

As if its indiscriminate bombing, which has already damaged or destroyed up to 70% of all homes in Gaza, weren’t enough, filling those tunnels with polluted water will ensure that some of the remaining residential buildings will suffer structural problems, too. And if the ground is weak and insecure, Palestinians will have trouble rebuilding.

Flooding tunnels with polluted groundwater “will cause an accumulation of salt and the collapse of the soil, leading to the demolition of thousands of Palestinian homes in the densely populated strip,” says Abdel-Rahman al-Tamimi, director of the Palestinian Hydrologists Group, the largest NGO monitoring pollution in the Palestinian territories. His conclusion couldn’t be more stunning: “The Gaza Strip will become a depopulated area, and it will take about 100 years to get rid of the environmental effects of this war.”

In other words, as al-Tamimi points out, Israel is now “killing the environment.” And in many ways, it all started with the destruction of Palestine’s lush olive groves.



Olives No More

During an average year, Gaza once produced more than 5,000 tons of olive oil from more than 40,000 trees. The fall harvest in October and November was long a celebratory season for thousands of Palestinians. Families and friends sang, shared meals, and gathered in the groves to celebrate under ancient trees, which symbolized “peace, hope, and sustenance.” It was an important tradition, a deep connection both to the land and to a vital economic resource. Last year, olive crops accounted for more than 10% of the Gazan economy, a total of $30 million.

Of course, since October 7th, harvesting has ceased. Israel’s scorched earth tactics have instead ensured the destruction of countless olive groves. Satellite images released in early December affirm that 22% of Gaza’s agricultural land, including countless olive orchards, has been completely destroyed.

“We are heartbroken over our crops, which we cannot reach,” explains Ahmed Qudeih, a farmer from Khuza, a town in the Southern Gaza Strip. “We can’t irrigate or observe our land or take care of it. After every devastating war, we pay thousands of shekels to ensure the quality of our crops and to make our soil suitable again for agriculture.”

Israel’s relentless military thrashing of Gaza has taken an unfathomable toll on human life (more than 22,000 dead, including significant numbers of women and children, and thousands more bodies believed to be buried under the rubble and so uncountable). And consider this latest round of horror just a particularly grim continuation of a 75-year campaign to eviscerate the Palestinian cultural heritage. Since 1967, Israel has uprooted more than 800,000 native Palestinian olive trees, sometimes to make way for new illegal Jewish settlements in the West Bank; in other instances, out of alleged security concerns, or from pure, visceral Zionist rage.

Wild groves of olive trees have been harvested by inhabitants of the region for thousands of years, dating back to the Chalcolithic period in the Levant (4,300-3,300 BCE), and the razing of such groves has had calamitous environmental consequences. “[The] removal of trees is directly linked to irreversible climate change, soil erosion, and a reduction in crops,” according to a 2023 Yale Review of International Studiesreport. “The perennial, woody bark acts as a carbon sink … [an] olive tree absorbs 11 kg of CO2 per liter of olive oil produced.”

Besides providing a harvestable crop and cultural value, olive groves are vital to Palestine’s ecosystem. Numerous bird species, including the Eurasian Jay, Green Finch, Hooded Crow, Masked Shrike, Palestine Sunbird, and Sardinian Warbler rely on the biodiversity provided by Palestine’s wild trees, six species of which are often found in native olive groves: the Aleppo pine, almond, olive, Palestine buckhorn, piny hawthorne, and fig.

As Simon Awad and Omar Attum wrote in a 2017 issue of the Jordan Journal of Natural History:

“[Olive] groves in Palestine could be considered cultural landscapes or be designated as globally important agricultural systems because of the combination of their biodiversity, cultural, and economic values. The biodiversity value of historic olive groves has been recognized in other parts of the Mediterranean, with some proposing these areas should receive protection because they are habitat used by some rare and threatened species and are important in maintaining regional biodiversity.”

An ancient, native olive tree should be considered a testament to the very existence of Palestinians and their struggle for freedom. With its thick spiraling trunk, the olive tree stands as a cautionary tale to Israel, not because of the fruit it bears, but because of the stories its roots hold of a scarred landscape and a battered people that have been callously and relentlessly besieged for more than 75 years.

White Phosphorus and Bombs, Bombs, and More Bombs

While contaminating aquifers and uprooting olive groves, Israel is now also poisoning Gaza from above. Numerous videos analyzed by Amnesty International and confirmed by the Washington Post display footage of flares and plumes of white phosphorus raining down on densely populated urban areas. First used on World War I battlefields to provide cover for troop movements, white phosphorus is known to be toxic and dangerous to human health. Dropping it on urban environments is now considered illegal under international law, and Gaza is one of the most densely populated places on earth. “Any time that white phosphorus is used in crowded civilian areas, it poses a high risk of excruciating burns and lifelong suffering,” says Lama Fakih, director for the Middle East and North Africa at Human Rights Watch (HRW).

While white phosphorus is highly toxic to humans, significant concentrations of it also have deleterious effects on plants and animals. It can disrupt soil composition, making it too acidic to grow crops. And that’s just one part of the mountain of munitions Israel has fired at Gaza over the past three months. The war (if you can call such an asymmetrical assault a “war”) has been the deadliest and most destructive in recent memory, by some estimates at least as bad as the Allied bombing of Germany during World War II, which annihilated 60 German cities and killed an estimated half-million people.

Like the Allied forces of World War II, Israel is killing indiscriminately. Of the 29,000 air-to-surface munitions fired, 40% have been unguided bombs dropped on crowded residential areas. The U.N. estimates that, as of late December, 70% of all schools in Gaza, many of which served as shelters for Palestinians fleeing Israel’s onslaught, had been severely damaged. Hundreds of mosques and churches have also been struck and 70% of Gaza’s 36 hospitals have been hit and are no longer functioning.

A War That Exceeds All Predictions

“Gaza is one of the most intense civilian punishment campaigns in history,” claims Robert Pape, a historian at the University of Chicago. “It now sits comfortably in the top quartile of the most devastating bombing campaigns ever.”

It’s still difficult to grasp the toll being inflicted, day by day, week by week, not just on Gaza’s infrastructure and civilian life but on its environment as well. Each building that explodes leaves a lingering cloud of toxic dust and climate-warming vapors. “In conflict-affected areas, the detonation of explosives can release significant amounts of greenhouse gases, including carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and particulate matter,” says Dr. Erum Zahir, a chemistry professor at the University of Karachi.

Dust from the collapsed World Trade Center towers on 9/11 ravaged first responders. A 2020 study found that rescuers were “41 percent more likely to develop leukemia than other individuals.” Some 10,000 New Yorkers suffered short-term health ailments following the attack, and it took a year for air quality in Lower Manhattan to return to pre-9/11 levels.

While it’s impossible to analyze all of the impacts of Israel’s nonstop bombing, it’s safe to assume that the ongoing leveling of Gaza will have far worse effects than 9/11 had on New York City. Nasreen Tamimi, head of the Palestinian Environmental Quality Authority, believes that an environmental assessment of Gaza now would “exceed all predictions.”

Central to the dilemma that faced Palestinians in Gaza, even before October 7th, was access to clean drinking water and it’s only been horrifically exacerbated by Israel’s nonstop bombardment. A 2019 report by UNICEF noted that “96 percent of water from Gaza’s sole aquifer is unfit for human consumption.”

Intermittent electricity, a direct result of Israel’s blockade, has also damaged Gaza’s sanitation facilities, leading to increased groundwater contamination, which has, in turn, led to various infections and massive outbreaks of preventable waterborne diseases. According to HRW, Israel is using a lack of food and drinking water as a tool of warfare, which many international observers argue is a form of collective punishment — a war crime of the first order. Israeli forces have intentionally destroyed farmland and bombed water and sanitation facilities in what certainly seems like an effort to make Gaza all too literally unlivable.

“I have to walk three kilometers to get one gallon [of water],” 30-year-old Marwan told HRW. Along with hundreds of thousands of other Gazans, Marwan fled to the south with his pregnant wife and two children in early November. “And there is no food. If we are able to find food, it is canned food. Not all of us are eating well.”

In the south of Gaza, near the overcrowded city of Khan Younis, raw sewage flows through the streets as sanitation services have ceased operation. In the southern town of Rafah, where so many Gazans have fled, conditions are beyond dire. Makeshift U.N. hospitals are overwhelmed, food and water are in short supply, and starvation is significantly on the rise. In late December, the World Health Organization (WHO) documented more than 100,000 cases of diarrhea and 150,000 respiratory infections in a Gazan population of about 2.3 million. And those numbers are likely massive undercounts and will undoubtedly increase as Israel’s offensive drags on, having already displaced 1.9 million people, or more than 85% of the population, half of whom are now facing starvation, according to the U.N.

“For over two months, Israel has been depriving Gaza’s population of food and water, a policy spurred on or endorsed by high-ranking Israeli officials and reflecting an intent to starve civilians as a method of warfare,” reports Omar Shakir of Human Rights Watch.

Rarely, if ever, have the perpetrators of mass murder (reportedly now afraid of South Africa’s filing at the International Court of Justice in the Hague, accusing Israel of genocide) so plainly laid out their cruel intentions. As Israeli President Isaac Herzog put it in a callous attempt to justify the atrocities now being faced by Palestinian civilians, “It’s an entire nation out there that is responsible [for October 7th]. This rhetoric about civilians not aware, not involved, it’s absolutely not true. They could’ve risen up, they could have fought against that evil regime.”

The violence inflicted on Palestinians by an Israel backed so strikingly by President Biden and his foreign policy team is unlike anything we had previously witnessed in more or less real-time in the media and on social media. Gaza, its people, and the lands that have sustained them for centuries are being desecrated and transformed into an all too unlivable hellscape, the impact of which will be felt — it’s a guarantee — for generations to come.


This article has been republished with permission from TomDispatch.


Joshua Frank is an award-winning California-based journalist and co-editor of CounterPunch. He is the author of the new book Atomic Days: The Untold Story of the Most Toxic Place in America (Haymarket Books).