Excessive Tibetan Plateau spring warming found to cause catastrophic June 2024 heavy rainfall in China

Science China Press

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(a) Observed May T-2m difference between 2024 and the climatology reference; (b) GFS/SSiB2 simulated May T-2m anomaly after soil temperature initialization over TP. (c) same as (a), but for the June 2024 precipitation anomaly. (d) Simulated June precipitation anomaly due to TP LST/SUBT effect. Note: (1). The dotted grids denote the statistical significance based on the Student T-test at the P < 0.1 level. (2). The grey bold 4000m contour lines illustrate the approximate TP geographic location. (3). The numbers in panels are averages of corresponding variables over the TP in panels (a) and (b) and over the red box in panels (c) - (d).

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Credit: ©Science China Press

When catastrophic rainfall began in early June 2024 in southern China (S. China)—an event that caught worldwide attention due to its devastating consequences—no plausible explanation had yet been proposed. This research was inspired by the finding of the international project “Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges/Impact of Initialized Land Surface Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction” (GEWEX/LS4P), which identified a lagged relationship between spring land temperatures over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and downstream summer precipitation over East Asia. Specifically, the findings indicated that when the TP experienced a warm/cold spring, southern China (S. China) was likely to experience a wet/dry summer, respectively.

By examining the record-breaking warm spring land temperatures over the TP in 2024—the warmest TP spring since 1980—the researchers conjectured that this extreme TP warming and the subsequent heavy rainfall in S. China were consistent with the LS4P hypothesis. This study was initiated during the 2024 GEWEX Open Science Conference (July 7-12) in Japan. A group of scientists participating in the LS4P project, including experts from UCLA, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IAP/CAS), the Chinese Meteorological Administration (CMA), the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center (ESSIC) at the University of Maryland, College Park, and other institutions, voluntarily collaborated in response to an initiative by LS4P Co-Chair Professor. Yongkang Xue of UCLA. Their goal was to provide a timely explanation for the scientific and public communities.

The ESM developed by the National Center for Environmental Research (NCEP) and UCLA was used for this study. Since the study was conducted in close to real-time during an ongoing event, Mr. Ratko Vasic of NCEP provided valuable assistance in obtaining initial conditions for model simulations. Drs. Qian Li and Xianghui Kong of the IAP, Chinese Academy of Sciences, promptly produced all numerical experiment results and conducted preliminary analyses.

One of the most challenging aspects of this study was reproducing the observed extreme warm temperatures over the TP in the ESM. Initially, the ESM failed to reproduce the homogeneous extreme warm May temperatures over the TP and underestimated the heavy June rainfall in S. China, exhibiting a severe dry bias. After improving the land temperature initialization for the TP, the ESM successfully reproduced most of the observed TP May 2-meter temperature (T-2m) anomalies and simulated approximately 55% of the observed extraordinary June rainfall anomaly in S. China. The results passed a more stringent field significance test, indicating these results did not occur by chance.

Additionally, the experiment realistically simulated other observed anomalies, including the heavy rainfall in Bangladesh, where an extraordinary June flood occurred and was widely reported in the media, as well as abnormally wet conditions over the eastern TP and southern Japan, and dry conditions over northern China.

The study also assessed the influence of sea surface temperature (SST), traditionally used in climate and weather predictions. Results showed that May and June 2024 global SSTs, with only moderate anomalies, contributed about 17% of the observed rainfall anomaly.

  Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction for late spring and summer, which involves a substantial number of extreme hydroclimate events, has remained stubbornly low in accuracy for years. To tackle this persistent challenge, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) launched a joint S2S Prediction Project, aimed at improving predictions ranging from 2 weeks to 3 months. Among various factors, land initialization and configuration have been identified as one of key areas with the potential to significantly enhance S2S predictions. While many land variables, such as albedo, soil moisture, snowpack, and vegetation, have been utilized for climate and weather predictions since the 1970s, the memory effect of land temperature on predictions has been largely underappreciated until the inception of LS4P. This is surprising given that the T-2m measurements have the highest quality among land variables, with the longest meteorological observational records, global coverage, and dense measurement networks.

The LS4P group, comprising many of the world’s leading climate and weather prediction and research centers, has made great strides in demonstrating the critical role of high mountain land temperature anomalies in S2S predictions. They have published many peer-reviewed papers within the field. “This represents a significant contribution of GEWEX to the S2S prediction that is scientifically challenging and highly relevant to society,” emphasized Professor Xubin Zeng, Co-Chair of the GEWEX. Dr. Aaron Boone of Meteo France asserts this work opens new avenues for improving S2S prediction for operational applications, which is increasingly important given the rising frequency of anomalous meteorological events observed worldwide.

Despite its promise, this approach has yet to gain full recognition within the broader scientific community, where traditional SST-based methods continue to dominate. Historically, it has often taken years to identify the causes of climate-related catastrophic events. The new and exciting results from this study, completed in such a short timeframe, underscore the robustness of this innovative approach. This study demonstrates that excessive TP spring land heating was the primary factor driving the catastrophic June 2024 rainfall in S. China. Yongkang acknowledged that, while there remain many unresolved challenges with this approach, the team hopes their paper in Science Bulletin will inspire further research using diverse methodologies to advance S2S prediction of extreme hydroclimate events and increase public awareness of the latest advancements in this field made by LS4P scientists.

The subseasonal processes associated with the remote effect of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature anomaly affecting downstream summer precipitation. Yongkang Xue, William Lau, and Zhijiong Cao developed this schematic diagram.

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Yongkang Xue, William Lau, and Zhijiong Cao developed this schematic diagram.

 

New research highlights the governance and ecological challenges of mangroves in the Andaman and Nicobar islands

Vrije Universiteit Brussel

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Dr. Poti’s research highlights the impact of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and tsunami on mangrove ecosystems in these islands. The tsunami led to significant land subsidence (up to 3 m) and uplift (up to 1.4 m), dramatically altering the tidal patterns crucial for mangrove survival. As a result, 97% of mangroves in the Nicobar Islands were lost. However, these changes also opened up new intertidal zones, allowing for mangrove colonization in previously non-mangrove terrestrial areas.

“A key finding of my research is the inadequate policy response to these ecological changes.” Dr. Poti says. “Despite the crucial role mangroves play in coastal protection and fisheries, the governance framework remains fragmented, with limited coordination between the Fisheries and Forest Departments. Additionally, top-down governance often overlooks local ecological conditions, leading to failed mangrove restoration efforts.” ​

Encouragingly, Dr. Poti notes an emerging trend of informal collaboration between government officers and researchers, which has the potential to improve conservation efforts. While challenges remain, this shift indicates a growing recognition of the importance of scientific input in environmental policy.
​

References:

Poti, M., Hugé, J., Shanker, K., Koedam, N., & Dahdouh-Guebas, F. (2022). Learning from small islands in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO): A systematic review of responses to environmental change. Ocean & Coastal Management, 227, 106268.
​https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2022.106268

Prabakaran, N., Poti, M., Hugé, J. et al. Shifted baselines: Using the adaptive cycle to assess the post-tsunami mangrove social-ecological system recovery in the Nicobar Islands. Ambio 54, 536–551 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13280-024-02088-3

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Journal

AMBIO

DOI

10.1007/s13280-024-02088-3 

 

Fungi’s hidden power: How fungal biomass holds carbon in soil across ecosystems for millennia

Science China Press

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The model outlines three distinct mechanisms through which fungi actively contribute to processes of organic matter and nutrient transformations in soil

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Credit: ©Science China Press

This study is led by Dr. Guanghui Yu from School of Earth System Science, Tianjin University. This study delves into the role of fungal biomass on the formation of soil stable carbon, conducted by Xiang Wang and Guanghui Yu. Fungi play a crucial role in ecosystem processes such as soil carbon cycling, decomposition, nutrient turnover, and symbiosis with plants. Most vascular plants form mycorrhizae, where fungi exchange carbon for nutrients like phosphorus and nitrogen. Fungal hyphae can extend over vast areas, influencing the "hyphosphere", a zone larger and more dynamic than the rhizosphere. When fungi die, their hyphal fragments contribute to microbial residues, or "necromass", which are key to forming mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM). Fungal necromass is significant in soil organic matter, especially in topsoil, and is sensitive to climate change and management. Despite the importance of fungi in carbon cycles, their role in stabilizing carbon over long timescales is not fully understood.

This study explores the role of fungal biomass in carbon persistence across biomes. The researchers hypothesize that hypha-mineral interactions help stabilize carbon. They analyzed fungal biomass and mineral-associated carbon in six biomes and used nanoscale imaging to study hypha-mineral interactions in Pinus silvestris rhizospheres. Findings show fungi’s vital role in stabilizing carbon in soils, with implications for global carbon cycling.

The researchers collected data on microbial biomass carbon stocks and reactive mineral-associated carbon stocks from six different ecosystems to better understand the critical role of microbial biomass in forming stable soil carbon pools at the ecosystem level. The results revealed a strong correlation between microbial biomass carbon and reactive mineral-associated carbon, indicating their significant contribution to the persistence and stability of soil carbon. The topsoil microbial biomass carbon accounted for 86% of the total microbial biomass carbon, showing a clear connection to the entire soil profile’s microbial carbon stock. Interestingly, fungal biomass carbon in the topsoil was strongly correlated with the reactive mineral-associated carbon across the whole soil profile, while bacterial biomass carbon showed a weaker correlation.

To investigate the hypha-mineral interactions and uncover the key mechanisms behind the persistence of fungal biomass carbon, the researchers used high-resolution nanoscale secondary ion mass spectrometry (50 nm resolution) to analyze mycorrhizae in the pine rhizosphere soil. The results revealed that hyphae were surrounded by a distinct mineral coating layer, approximately 500–600 nm thick. This mineral coating, closely associated with carbon, provided direct evidence that mineral nanoparticles help protect fungal exudates.

The study proposes a new conceptual model to explain these interactions, emphasizing the multifaceted roles fungi play in soil organic carbon persistence. According to the model, living fungi contribute to the soil biogeochemical carbon cycle in two ways: First, hypha-mineral interactions generate reactive oxygen species that accelerate organic matter decomposition, enhancing nutrient cycling. Second, the nanoparticles produced by fungi facilitate the formation of organo-mineral complexes, which stabilize soil organic carbon. After death, fungal necromass interacts with nanoparticles, further stabilizing the carbon.

The findings of this study bring together ecosystem-level processes and microscopic 

 

No quantum exorcism for Maxwell's demon (but it doesn't need one)

Nagoya University

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No quantum exorcism for Maxwell's demon (but it doesn't need one)

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Credit: Reiko Matsushita

In a groundbreaking discovery, researchers from Nagoya University in Japan and the Slovak Academy of Sciences have unveiled new insights into the interplay between quantum theory and thermodynamics. The team demonstrated that while quantum theory does not inherently forbid violations of the second law of thermodynamics, quantum processes may be implemented without actually breaching the law. This discovery, published in npj Quantum Information, highlights a harmonious coexistence between the two fields, despite their logical independence. Their findings open up new avenues for understanding the thermodynamic boundaries of quantum technologies, such as quantum computing and nanoscale engines.

This breakthrough contributes to the long-standing exploration of the second law of thermodynamics, a principle often regarded as one of the most profound and enigmatic in physics. The second law asserts that entropy—a measure of disorder in a system—never decreases spontaneously. It also states that a cyclically operating engine cannot produce mechanical work by extracting heat from a single thermal environment and underscores the concept of a unidirectional flow of time.

Despite its foundational role, the second law remains one of the most debated and misunderstood principles in science. Central to this debate is the paradox of “Maxwell's Demon,” a thought experiment proposed by physicist James Clerk Maxwell in 1867.

Maxwell envisioned a hypothetical being—the demon—capable of sorting fast and slow molecules within a gas at thermal equilibrium without expending energy. By separating these molecules into distinct regions, the demon could create a temperature difference. As the system returns to equilibrium, mechanical work is extracted, seemingly defying the second law of thermodynamics.

The paradox has intrigued physicists for over a century, raising questions about the law’s universality and whether it depends on the observer’s knowledge and capabilities. Solutions to the paradox have largely centered on treating the demon as a physical system subject to thermodynamic laws. A proposed solution is erasing the demon’s memory, which would require an expenditure of mechanical work, effectively offsetting the violation of the second law.

To explore this phenomenon further, the researchers developed a mathematical model for a “demonic engine,” a system powered by Maxwell’s demon. Their approach is rooted in the theory of quantum instruments, a framework introduced in the 1970s and 1980s to describe the most general forms of quantum measurement.

The model involves three steps: the demon measures a target system, then extracts work from it by coupling it to a thermal environment, and finally erases its memory by interacting with the same environment.

Using this framework, the team derived precise equations for the work expended by the demon and the work it extracts, expressed in terms of quantum information measures such as von Neumann entropy and Groenewold-Ozawa information gain. When comparing these equations, they got a surprising result.

“Our results showed that under certain conditions permitted by quantum theory, even after accounting for all costs, the work extracted can exceed the work expended, seemingly violating the second law of thermodynamics,” explained Shintaro Minagawa, a lead researcher on the project. “This revelation was as exciting as it was unexpected, challenging the assumption that quantum theory is inherently ‘demon-proof.’ There are hidden corners in the framework where Maxwell’s Demon could still work its magic.”

Despite these loopholes, the researchers emphasize that they don't pose a threat to the second law. “Our work demonstrates that, despite these theoretical vulnerabilities, it is possible to design any quantum process so that it complies with the second law,” said Hamed Mohammady. “In other words, quantum theory could potentially break the second law of thermodynamics, but it doesn't actually have to. This establishes a remarkable harmony between quantum mechanics and thermodynamics: they remain independent but never fundamentally at odds.”

This discovery also suggests that the second law does not impose strict limitations on quantum measurements. Any process permitted by quantum theory can be implemented without violating thermodynamic principles. By refining our understanding of this interplay, the researchers aim to unlock new possibilities for quantum technologies while upholding the timeless principles of thermodynamics.

“One thing we show in this paper is that quantum theory is really logically independent of the second law of thermodynamics. That is, it can violate the law simply because it does not ‘know’ about it at all,” Francesco Buscemi explained. “And yet—and this is just as remarkable—any quantum process can be realized without violating the second law of thermodynamics. This can be done by adding more systems until the thermodynamic balance is restored.” The implications of this study extend beyond theoretical physics. Illuminating the thermodynamic limits of quantum systems provides a foundation for innovations in quantum computing and nanoscale engines. As we explore the quantum realm, this research serves as a reminder of the delicate balance between the fundamental laws of nature and the potential for groundbreaking technological advancements.

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Journal

npj Quantum Information

DOI

10.1038/s41534-024-00922-w 

 

DNA barcodes and citizen science images map spread of biocontrol agent for control of major invasive shrub

New CABI-led research using publicly-shared DNA barcodes and citizen science images have provided new evidence on the establishment and spread of a biological control agent used for the control of the major invasive shrub Lantana camara.

CABI

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Lantana camara is a major invasive shrub globally, impacting upon biodiversity, economies, ecosystem services, and driving socio-ecological change

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Credit: Arne Witt/CABI

New CABI-led research using publicly-shared DNA barcodes and citizen science images have provided new evidence on the establishment and spread of a biological control agent used for the control of the major invasive shrub Lantana camara.

Lantana camara was introduced as a garden and ornamental plant throughout the tropics and subtropics but is now pervasive throughout the Old World, invading woodlands, forestry, orchards, grasslands, and disturbed areas, where is displaces useful and indigenous plants.

Dr Matthew Cock, CABI Emeritus Fellow, and colleagues took DNA barcodes from the Barcode of Life Data System (BOLD) and citizen science images from the iNaturalist and Afromoths websites to detect the establishment of the biological control agent Orphanostigma haemorrhoidalis (Guenée) (Lepidoptera, Crambidae) – which is used to tackle L. camara – in countries where it has not previously been reported.

In this research, the scientists used for the first time a combination of publicly shared DNA barcodes and citizen science images to assess the establishment and spread of an introduced weed biological control agent, O. haemorrhoidalis, as well as confirm historical distribution and establishment records reported in the literature.

Two genetically distinguishable populations of O. haemorrhoidalis

Dr Cock, and colleagues from Australia’s Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and MIA Consulting, found that there are two genetically distinguishable indigenous populations of O. haemorrhoidalis in the Americas, one in south-eastern USA and the other widespread in the rest of the Neotropics.

These two populations were introduced into different parts of the World and subsequently spread.

The scientists, whose research was published in the journal CABI Agriculture and Bioscience, used DNA barcodes from BOLD to clarify that a population from Florida is established in Hawai’i, Australia and Fiji, while a population from Trinidad is established in parts of mainland Africa (including new records for Cameroon, Nigeria and Ghana), Madagascar, Mauritius and La Réunion.

New country records for O. haemorrhoidalis were established from iNaturalist images from Eswatini, Kenya, and Mozambique, and from Afromoths for Tanzania.

Presence of O. haemorrhoidalis in its introduced range and beyond

Dr Cock said, “The DNA barcodes publicly shared by scientists on BOLD, and images shared by citizen scientists on iNaturalist, confirm the presence of O. haemorrhoidalis in much of its introduced range as well as several countries where it had not been previously reported.”

He said the use of unique Barcode Index Numbers (BINs) which are assigned to clusters of similar DNA barcodes, has enabled the introductions of O. haemorrhoidalis from Florida and Trinidad to be tracked separately.

Dr Cock added, “Based on our findings, we conclude as follows. Orphanostigma haemorrhoidalis derived from Trinidad is now widespread in Africa and the Mascarenes and can be expected to continue to spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa where lantana occurs.

“Orphanostigma haemorrhoidalis derived from Florida is established in Hawai’i, Australia and Fiji and we assume is the BIN present on Norfolk Island and in the other Pacific countries where it is known to occur (Federated States of Micronesia, Niue, Tonga, and Vanuatu). Based on the evidence available it appears that this is the only BIN established from the introductions into Hawai’i, and onward from there.”

In 2022, CABI scientists contributed to research, published in the journal Plant-Environment Interactions which showed how L. camara reduced the growth of maize in East Usambara, Tanzania, by 29%.

They sought to gain a better understanding of immediate as well as legacy effects and of direct and indirect impacts of L. camara for improved management of invaded cropland.

Online social network of people sharing biodiversity information

iNaturalist is an online social network of people sharing biodiversity information to help each other learn about nature. It is also a crowdsourced species identification system and an organism occurrence recording tool.

It can be used to record users’ own observations, get help with identifications, collaborate with others to collect this kind of information for a common purpose, or access the observational data collected by iNaturalist users.

Afromoths, meanwhile, provides an online database of the Afrotropical moth species (Lepidoptera), updated with the latest information obtained from 10,000+ published sources and studies.

The main objective of this searchable website is to make all relevant information on every Afrotropical moth species hitherto known, accessible to any user worldwide.

Full paper reference

Cock, M.J.W., Day, M.D. & Winston, R.L. Publicly-shared DNA barcodes and citizen science images provide new evidence on the establishment and spread of the lantana weed biological control agent, Orphanostigma haemorrhoidalis (Lepidoptera, Crambidae) CABI Agric Biosci, 7 February 2025, DOI: 10.1079/ab.2025.0010

The paper can be accessed here from 10:00hrs UK time on Friday 7 February 2025: https://www.cabidigitallibrary.org/doi/10.1079/ab.2025.0010

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Journal

CABI Agriculture and Bioscience

DOI

10.1079/ab.2025.0010 

Method of Research

Experimental study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Publicly-shared DNA barcodes and citizen science images provide new evidence on the establishment and spread of the lantana weed biological control agent, Orphanostigma haemorrhoidalis (Lepidoptera, Crambidae)

Article Publication Date

7-Feb-2025

 

Soft tissue from a 183 million-year-old Jurassic plesiosaur analyzed

Lund University

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Skeleton of the new plesiosaur at the Urwelt-Museum Hauff in Holzmaden, Germany.

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Credit: Credit: Klaus Nilkens/Urwelt-Museum Hauff

WATCH VIDEO STORY: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GkG_1_5arOU 

Researchers at Lund University in Sweden have analysed the soft tissue from a fossilized plesiosaur for the first time. The results show that the long-necked marine reptile had both smooth and scaly skin. This was likely so it could both swim rapidly and move along rough seabeds.

Plesiosaurs lived in the world's oceans for much of the Mesozoic Era (203–66 million years ago). These reptiles, which could grow up to 12 meters long, fed on fish and moved much like sea turtles using four paddle-like flippers. Until now, little has been known about the external anatomy of plesiosaurs. However, in a new study published in the scientific journal Current Biology, a research team led by scientists from Lund University has managed to analyze soft tissue from a 183-million-year-old plesiosaur found near Holzmaden, Germany.

"Fossilized soft tissue, such as skin and internal organs, is exceptionally rare. We used a broad range of techniques to identify smooth skin in the tail region as well as scales along the rear edge of the flippers. This provided us with unparalleled insights into the appearance and biology of these long-extinct reptiles," says Miguel Marx, a PhD student in geology at Lund University and the lead author of the study.

The results reveal an unusual combination of smooth and scaly skin on different parts of the body. The researchers believe this variation could be related to different functions. The plesiosaur needed to swim efficiently to catch fish and squid-like animals, a task made easier by its smooth and hydrodynamic skin. However, it also needed to move across rough seafloors, which the scaly flippers would have likely allowed it to do.

"Our findings help us create more accurate life reconstructions of plesiosaurs, something that has been extremely difficult since they were first studied over 200 years ago. Also, the well-preserved German fossil really highlights the potential for soft tissue in providing valuable insights into the biology of these long-extinct animals," explains Miguel Marx.

By reconstructing the appearance of ancient animals, researchers can enhance our understanding of macroevolution and the adaptations required to survive in specific environments. In recreating the past, we can also better understand Earth’s history and where we are headed.

"Apart from the mosaic of smooth skin and scales, it was an incredible moment to visualize the cells in thin sections of the fossilized plesiosaur’s skin. I was shocked when I saw skin cells that had been preserved for 183 million years. It was almost like looking at modern skin," says Miguel Marx.

In addition to Lund University, the following institutions and organizations participated in the study: Uppsala University, RISE (Research Institutes of Sweden), Naturkunde-Museum Bielefeld, and Urwelt-Museum Hauff.

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Journal

Current Biology

DOI

10.1016/j.cub.2025.01.001 

Article Title

Skin, scales, and cells in a Jurassic plesiosaur

Article Publication Date

6-Feb-2025