COVID-19 in Alberta: Rising case counts, test positivity show seventh wave has arrived

Matthew Black - 

Alberta has entered the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic’s seventh wave, according to the latest data published by the province on Wednesday, but it’s too soon to say how severe, or not, it will be.


© Provided by Edmonton JournalCoronavirus mutation is continuously taking place as populations' immunity grows.

The data indicates the province’s test positivity has grown steadily since the end of June after it had been declining since mid-April. As well, the nearly 20 per cent positivity rate recorded July 7 was the highest since the end of May.

“It’s been climbing even though the testing numbers are small, that trend has always been pretty useful,” said Dr. Lynora Saxinger, a University of Alberta infectious-disease specialist of the test positivity rate, adding “I don’t like the way that it’s heading.”


The seven-day rolling average of new cases has also risen consistently over the past two weeks.

Those new cases haven’t resulted in an increase in severe outcomes, with the rate of deaths and hospitalizations remaining relatively unchanged.

“I think the bigger question is whether we’ll also have a severe case surge,” said Saxinger.

In prior waves, severe outcomes were lagging indicators, meaning they rose a few weeks after a spike in cases and test positivity.

Saxinger says that may not necessarily be the case in Alberta’s seventh wave.

“In Omicron, it kind of all happened at the same time,” she said, referencing the dominant COVID-19 variant.

Vaccination remains an effective protection against those severe outcomes, with those who are unvaccinated at many times more risk of death or hosptialization than those with three or more doses.

Over the past four months, unvaccinated Albertans in their 70s died at 10 times the rate of those in the same age group who had three doses.

A spokeswoman for Alberta Health said the province is reviewing the latest guidance on rolling out fourth doses of COVID-19 vaccines and an update will be provided in the near future.

Last week, Ontario and Quebec announced they were considering expanding booster shots to all adults amid seventh waves in those provinces.

But Saxinger cautions against comparing Alberta’s situation too closely to other provinces and countries.

“The shape of the last waves, even between places, has been wildly different compared to earlier on. And so the kind of community immunity situation really does start to play a bigger role,” she said.

“That doesn’t necessarily mean it’s going to be the same everywhere, but on the other hand, it’s not reassuring.”

– With files from Dylan Short
mblack@postmedia.com