NC carbon plan is an opportunity to lead on climate change mitigation | Opinion


Charlotte Observer file photo

John Gaertner
Tue, February 21, 2023 at 3:30 AM MST·3 min read

In December 2022, the N.C. Utilities Commission (NCUC) issued its first Carbon Plan largely as proposed by Duke Energy. It was a responsible decision, not only for Duke Energy but for ratepayers, N.C. businesses that advocate for affordable energy, citizens who demand reliable electricity, climate and environment advocates, and for disadvantaged communities.

I testified to the NCUC in favor of the plan submitted by Duke Energy, with some reasonable but important enhancements, because it is the best opportunity to meet or exceed carbon reduction goals for 2030 and 2050. Here’s my position:

Since 2017 each iteration of Duke plans has increased the commitment to reduce carbon emissions from 2005 levels. Also, the plans are increasingly more detailed, the analytics more rigorous, the staff more knowledgeable, and the process for plan evolution and execution more complete. I expect this trend can continue.

The approved plan addresses the specific technical requirements in the 39 NCUC Orders, including:

▪ optimizing build-out of renewable generation,

▪ accelerating closure of coal plants,

▪ limiting new fossil-gas plants with transition plans to carbon-free fuel,

▪ advancing energy storage — batteries and pumped storage hydro,

▪ extending life of zero-carbon nuclear plants and building new, more versatile ones,

▪ expanding energy efficiency programs and innovative grid technology, and

▪ improving timeliness of transmission system upgrades.

Equally important for a successful energy transition to zero-carbon, the plan and its execution process employ a state-of-the-art decision-making method. It’s impressive that NCUC and Duke Energy have embraced this forward-thinking approach.

The process is important because it has been specifically designed for and applied to complex systems such as the N.C. electric power system, which have high technical and cost uncertainty, competing objectives and divergent stakeholder priorities. It is also designed to continuously improve as issues are encountered and resolved.

Rejecting the plan will not make these issues go away, but will cause delays and more disagreements. Accepting the plan enables immediate progress through collaboration, oversight, and dynamic response to emergent events.

The plan has the best chance for an optimum outcome on carbon reduction, cost, schedule and societal impact.

It has been criticized for including four alternative scenarios with different generation options selected, schedules and costs — instead of one. Consideration of alternative future scenarios is integral to the planning and execution process and is a strength of the Duke Energy plan.

To ensure success, Duke must establish a cadence of near-term actions, monitoring performance and compliance with the NCUC order, and updates of the plan. The NCUC must provide continuous oversight, and other stakeholders must assure their interests continue to get proper consideration.

The N.C. carbon plan is an impressive collaborative achievement that included the legislature, Gov. Cooper’s administration, the NCUC, Duke Energy, and hundreds of other stakeholders. No one got everything they wanted, but we should be proud and determined to accomplish this existentially important objective to mitigate climate change.

John Gaertner spent his career in power generation as a licensed engineer, atmospheric scientist and risk analyst. He is retired from the Electric Power Research Institute and lives in Charlotte.