THE WAR AT SEA
Ukraine Claims to Have Destroyed a Russian Submarine
Ukraine's military intelligence service claims that a Russian submarine was destroyed in last night's missile attack on a shipyard in Sevastopol, along with a tank landing ship.
"Significant damage has been inflicted and we can now say that the vessels are most likely not recoverable. Yes, today there’s good news - the destruction of the large enemy landing ship . . . as well as the Kalibr-carrying submarine, which is very important," said Ukrainian intelligence officer Andriy Yusov in a televised interview.
Official photos from the scene confirm that one of the vessels was a Ropucha-class landing ship, and it appears that the attack destroyed much of the ship's superstructure.
While Ukraine's claim about the destruction of a submarine could not be definitively confirmed, it would align with satellite surveillance and with a recent report from a Russian military news channel. Telegram war-reporting account "Shot" reported Wednesday that a Kilo-class sub - identified as the Rostov-on-Don (B-237) - was damaged by the attack. Commercial satellite imagery also showed a Kilo-class sub in the drydock before the attack and blackened areas around the same spot the day after (below).
Russia's defense ministry has already confirmed that two vessels were damaged by the strike, without identifying their classes or names.
Apparent Kilo-class sub and Ropucha-class landing ship at the Pivdenny Bay drydocks, September 12 (BlackSky)
Apparent discoloration and damage at the same location, September 13 (BlackSky)
If accurate, the loss of two capable vessels would represent a serious blow to the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which cannot easily replace large warships because of the military traffic closure on the Bosporus. (Rostov-on-Don itself transited the Turkish Straits and entered the Black Sea just weeks before Turkey shut the waterway to naval vessels.)
It would also be a blow to the Russian Navy overall: in fiscal terms, the two vessels were worth several hundred million dollars, and the construction of a replacement Kilo-class would take years at backlogged Russian shipbuilder USC.
The wreckage left by the attack also takes two strategic graving docks out of commission for an unknown period of time. Drydocking capacity is already at a premium for Russian naval forces in the region, according to defense analysts.
For Ukraine, the destruction of a Kilo-class sub would be operationally and symbolically important. The Black Sea Fleet's diesel-powered subs have been used repeatedly to launch Kalibr cruise missiles at Ukrainian civilian infrastructure. They are also a potent threat to shipping, and Ukraine is working hard to restore confidence in the safety of the sea lanes to and from Odesa.
Russian Drone Strikes Cut Deep Into Ukraine's Danube River Lifeline
Repeated Russian drone strikes on Ukraine's Danube River ports are taking a serious toll, a top Ukrainian official warned Wednesday.
The ports of Reni and Izmail, located on the Ukrainian bank of the northern Danube estuary, are a lifeline for the nation's farmers and grain traders. When Russia shut off access to Ukraine's Black Sea coastline in July, resuming a de facto blockade of dry bulk shipping between Odesa and the Bosporus, the small Danube ports became one of the last remaining options for getting abundant Ukrainian wheat and corn to international markets.
Ukraine and its allies have been working on ways to boost throughput at Reni and Izmail, but Russian forces have been trying just as hard to destroy port capacity. Using waves of Iranian-designed Shahed suicide drones, Russia has repeatedly hit silos, truck marshalling yards, storage warehouses and other civilian infrastructure at the port complexes. Overnight Tuesday, the latest strike destroyed several buildings and left seven people injured, including two who required intensive care.
Interior Ministry of Ukraine
The strikes have cut back grain throughput at the ports by half a million tonnes a month, according to Ukrainian Minister of Infrastructure Oleksandr Kubrakov. This amounts to a measurable share of Ukraine's grain exports, which totaled some 50 million tonnes last year.
"This threatens food shortages in countries that depend on Ukrainian agricultural products. Additional air defense systems assets for Ukraine will strengthen global security," said Kubrakov.
Air defense could also strengthen security in neighboring Romania, where officials have set up temporary bomb shelters and air-raid alert systems for the villages located across the river from Reni and Izmail.
On Wednesday, the Romanian military recovered the remains of a Russian drone some 15 miles south of Izmail, deep in Romanian territory. It is the third time that pieces of a Russian suicide drone have been found inside of Romania, but the first time that a drone trespassed far past the border.
Romania's secretary of state for strategic affairs, Iulian Fota, summoned the Russian ambassador on Wednesday and lodged a stern protest "against the repeated violation of Romania's airspace." Fota called for a halt to attacks on Ukraine's civilian infrastruture, describing the Russian strikes on grain ports and other civil facilities as "war crimes."
Romania is a NATO member state, and the overflow of Russian drone operations onto NATO territory has raised concerns of possible escalation. NATO spokesperson Dylan White told media on Wednesday that “NATO has no information indicating any intentional attack by Russia" against a NATO member nation.
Video: Ukraine Hits Two Russian Ships in Strike on Sevastopol
Overnight Tuesday, a Ukrainian cruise missile attack struck a strategic shipyard in the inner harbor at the Russian-occupied port of Sevastopol. Residents captured loud blasts on video and shared images of a fire along the shoreline.
Russian media sources report that the explosions occurred at Sevmorzavod Shipyard, a repair complex used by Russia's Black Sea Fleet. The yard's twin graving docks are tucked into a small inlet on Pivdenna Bay, the narrow channel where the port's warship berths are located.
The Russian Ministry of Defense has confirmed that two ships under repair at the yard were damaged in the strike. The city's Russian administration reported that 24 people were injured, and news footage from the scene showed ambulances driving through at high speed.
As recently as this week, satellite imagery of the yard showed a Ropucha-class landing ship and a Kilo-class submarine in the graving docks, according to open-source analysts. A photo of the scene provided by the regional governor (top) would be consistent with the superstructure of a Ropucha-class vessel.
While it is unconfirmed, naval analyst H.I. Sutton suggests that the Kilo-class sub may have been the second vessel hit by the strike.
Russia's defense ministry also reported a simultaneous drone-boat attack on a group of Russian warships under way in the Black Sea. This secondary strike was not successful, the ministry claimed.
Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the attacks or provided further details, but the strike follows after a series of Ukrainian attacks that degraded Russian air defense and radar installations around the Crimean Peninsula. Within the past month, Ukrainian forces have destroyed a high-end S-400 surface-to-air missile complex in western Crimea and recaptured four Russian-held oil rigs in the northwestern Black Sea; the rigs had been used as Russian military sensor and observation platforms.
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