Friday, June 26, 2020




First comparison of dangers of tobacco cigarettes, e-cigarettes and waterpipes

Any smoking and vaping technique may increase risk of COVID-19 infection and death
EUROPEAN SOCIETY OF CARDIOLOGY


IMAGE
IMAGE: IMAGE SHOWS TOXIC COMPOUNDS, DISEASE MECHANISMS, CLINICAL OUTCOMES AND ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH TOBACCO CIGARETTES, E-CIGARETTES AND WATERPIPES. view more 
CREDIT: EUROPEAN HEART JOURNAL
Smoking and vaping, whether by means of tobacco cigarettes, e-cigarettes or waterpipes, stiffens the arteries, causes inflammation and damages DNA, leading to a variety of health problems, according to a study published today (Friday) in the European Heart Journal [1].
In addition, smoking and vaping may increase the risk of people being infected by COVID-19, suffering worse symptoms and dying from it, say the researchers. They join the World Health Organization (WHO), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Food and Drug Administration and the European Society of Cardiology in urging smokers to try to give up the habit, regardless of which smoking method they use.
The study is the world's first comparison of the effects of the three forms of smoking and vaping on human health and the function of cells that line blood vessels (the endothelium). It provides an overview of the available evidence about the harmful chemicals produced and the mechanisms by which smoking and vaping affect the body. The researchers also looked at the effects of each on medical conditions ranging from stroke to heart attacks and lung cancer.
The researchers found there were multiple good studies showing that, overall, tobacco cigarettes were more harmful than e-cigarettes. However, there were few good, large studies about the adverse effects of waterpipes (often referred to as hookahs, shisha or narghile) and e-cigarettes on endothelial dysfunction and so the evidence was more variable. The researchers say the long-term effects of water pipes and e-cigarettes need to be investigated more thoroughly. In the meantime, they write, "waterpipe smoking is not less harmful than tobacco smoking and thus cannot be considered a healthy alternative".
The researchers reviewed a range of studies, which they graded as providing strong, good or medium levels of evidence on the harmfulness of the three types of smoking and vaping [2]. Compared to non-smokers, tobacco cigarettes increased the risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) by 704% (good level of evidence), waterpipes by 218% (strong) and e-cigarettes by 194% (good); tobacco cigarettes and waterpipes increased the risk of lung cancer by 1210% (strong) and 122% (strong) respectively, while the level of evidence for e-cigarettes was not sufficient to draw reliable conclusions.
They also looked at how much the three smoking techniques stiffened the arteries, an important prognostic indicator for the risk of heart problems and stroke. Compared to non-smokers, tobacco cigarettes increased arterial stiffness by 10%, waterpipes by 9% and e-cigarettes by 7% (medium level of evidence for all three).
The first author of the review, Professor Thomas Münzel, of the Department of Cardiology of the University Medical Centre Mainz in Mainz, Germany, said: "Our review focuses primarily on the adverse effects of these three smoking and vaping techniques on endothelial dysfunction and the relation to oxidative stress and, secondly, on clinical disease. All three forms of smoking and vaping lead to increased production of oxygen-derived free radicals in blood vessel tissue, such as superoxide. This breaks down nitric oxide, which is released by the endothelium, and is important for helping blood vessels to dilate and for protecting against inflammation and clogging of the arteries."
The researchers say the main toxic chemicals in e-cigarette vapour include formaldehyde and acrolein, as well as traces of chemicals called transition metals and volatile organic compounds (VOCs), all of which are known to damage cells. In contrast, tobacco cigarettes and waterpipe smoke contain a much more complex mixture of harmful chemicals and other substances. Waterpipe smoke contains solid particulate matter, originating mainly from the charcoal used to burn the tobacco; this is also present in lower concentrations in cigarette smoke. Nicotine is present in all three tobacco products, is addictive and is responsible for harmful biological effects as well as, to a minor extent, some beneficial effects.
Prof. Münzel said: "These different as well as overlapping profiles of toxic compounds may be a key to understand the similarities and differences in the adverse health effects of smoking and vaping, and should be further investigated in detail by future studies."
The researchers looked at the effects of smoking and vaping on COVID-19 infections. In the EHJ paper, they write: "As outlined by the WHO, tobacco cigarette and waterpipe smoking may contribute to increased burden of symptoms due to COVID-19 compared to non-smoking, including being admitted to intensive care, requiring mechanical ventilation, and suffering severe health consequences."
They conclude: "There is no doubt...that smoking cessation is and will remain the most powerful approach to prevent smoking-induced cardiovascular and respiratory disease. This may be even more important in light of the...COVID-19 pandemic as the use of tobacco products likely increases the risk for COVID-19 associated cardiovascular and other severe complications in smokers and vapers."
Prof. Münzel said: "Given the well-established harms associated with tobacco use and second-hand smoke exposure, the WHO recommends that tobacco users should quit. Proven interventions to help users give up include toll-free quit lines, mobile text-messaging cessation programmes, nicotine replacement therapies and other approved medications, particularly if you have smoked for a long time, and especially if you use tobacco cigarettes and water pipes.
"The WHO also warns that although e-cigarettes appear to be less harmful than tobacco cigarettes, there is growing evidence that they also may cause side effects in the lungs, heart and blood vessels and that e-cigarette use may increase the risk of COVID-19 infection."
The authors also address the issue of tobacco advertising. In the EU, TV and radio advertising of cigarettes, and tobacco products is not permitted. Some countries, such as Slovenia and Norway, have strict laws that ban all types of advertising, even at the point of sale. Germany is the only EU country where tobacco products, including e-cigarettes, can be advertised in public spaces via billboards. In the US, advertising of both tobacco products and e-cigarettes on billboards is allowed. The EHJ study includes maps to show where in the world e-cigarette sales are legal, and where in Europe advertising permitted.
Prof. Münzel said: "E-cigarettes are mostly considered as tobacco products, but the regulations on their advertising are not always clear."
###
Notes:
[1] "Effects of tobacco cigarettes, e-cigarettes and waterpipe smoking on endothelial function and clinical outcome", by Thomas Münzel et al. European Heart Journal. doi:10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa460
[2] Examples of studies that provided strong evidence (shown as +++ in Figure 1 in the paper) were large meta-analyses; studies providing "good" evidence (++) were single studies with over 1,000 participants; and studies providing "medium" evidence (+) were single studies with fewer than 1,000 participants.


SO I HAVE TO ASK THE RHETORICAL QUESTION, IF THIS IS THE FIRST SUCH STUDY ON WHAT BASIS DID THE CITY OF EDMONTON DECIDE TO PASS A BYLAW BANNING WATER PIPE BARS AN LOUNGES, SHISHA BARS, POPULAR AMONG LEBANESE AND SYRIANS IN THE CITY.

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Edmonton looks at banning shisha lounges as early as July 2020. Edmonton will be following several Canadian cities in its clampdown on smoking shisha in lounges. In 2016, Toronto passed a bylaw banning the use of water pipes in all licensed establishments.Aug 27, 2019
Edmonton's ban on indoor shisha smoking to come into effect ...
https://www.thestar.com › edmonton › 2019/08/27 › edmontons-ban-on-in...


City proposes full ban on shisha lounges by 2021 | Edmonton ...
https://edmontonjournal.com › news › local-news › city-recommends-regu...

Jun 22, 2019 - Hookah bar business owners advocated for a transition period of four to five years before the ban is put in place, to recover costs associated with ...

Shisha lounges and city reach 12-month compromise on ...
https://edmontonjournal.com › news › local-news › it-will-be-detrimental-t...


Jun 26, 2019 - City council will vote to ban shisha lounges in Edmonton effective July ... Wednesday as shisha lounges offered to end hookah and water pipe ...
European police used racial discrimination when enforcing coronavirus lockdowns: Amnesty International

Amnesty International has said police in Europe demonstrated racial discrimination when implementing lockdowns.


Police forces across Europe were marred by systemic racism when implementing coronavirus lockdown measures, Amnesty International said in a report published on Wednesday.

The non-governmental organization which focuses on human rights said that while enforcing lockdowns, police across 12 European countries "disproportionately targeted ethnic minority and marginalized groups with violence, discriminatory identity checks, forced quarantines and fines."

Read more: Activists call for amnesty as COVID-19 spreads in Russian jails

The investigation revealed "a disturbing pattern of racial bias which is linked to concerns about institutional racism within police forces, and echoes wider concerns raised in the ongoing Black Lives Matter protests."

The death of George Floyd on May 25 while in police custody in Minneapolis sparked protests around the world and "highlighted the pervasiveness of discriminatory policing and impunity in Europe as well," the report added.


"THEY AREN'T PROTESTERS THEY ARE ANARCHISTS 
OR, OR WORSE" 
DONALD TRUMP 23/6/2020

PROTESTS AGAINST RACISM, POLICE BRUTALITY AROUND THE WORLD
Washington, DC
One of the largest rallies in the United States was held in the capital, Washington, DC, where thousands of people of all colors took to the streets near the White House, which was barricaded with black metal grates.  PHOTOS 12345678910

Read more: Blacks in the US targeted by an unfair justice system

Poorer areas subjected to greater crackdowns

The enforcement of lockdowns meant poorer communities were more likely to suffer greater crackdowns, according to Amnesty, and these zones often have a higher proportion of people from ethnic minorities.

In Seine-Saint-Denis, the poorest area of mainland France where the majority of inhabitants are Black or of North African origin, the number of fines handed out for breaching lockdown measures was three times higher than in the rest of the country, Amnesty said. Furthermore, poorer areas were often subjected to longer overnight curfews.

In the UK, police in London registered a 22% rise in stop and searches between March and April of this year. During that same period the proportion of Black people who were searched increased by almost a third.


Roma settlements imposed with militarized quarantines

Meanwhile, discrimination against Roma minorities in Bulgaria and Slovakia was evident during lockdown, the report said. Governments from both countries brought in mandatory quarantines on Roma settlements, for example.

In Slovakia they also tasked the military with enforcing quarantines while Amnesty considers that this option "is not suitable to carry out public health measures."

During mandatory quarantines in Bulgaria, over 50,000 Roma citizens were cut off from the rest of the country and suffered severe food shortages, according to Amnesty's investigations.

The 12 countries covered in the report were Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, France, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Serbia, Slovakia, Romania, Spain and the UK


  • Permalink https://p.dw.com/p/3eHvU

Thursday, June 25, 2020

Noam Chomsky on US Democracy | Inside America with Ghida Fakhry




https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turkish_Radio_and_Television_Corporation
New Polling Shows Trump’s Electoral College Advantage Is Slipping

By Geoffrey Skelley  JUN. 25, 2020, AT 1:45 PM

Filed under 2020 Election


ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT


A new batch of polls released by The New York Times Upshot/Siena College this morning has caused a stir as they gave former Vice President Joe Biden leads ranging from 6 to 11 percentage points in six key battleground states: Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Yet these surveys largely reinforced what our polling averages already showed: Biden has a sizable edge over President Trump in the states that are most likely to be the tipping point in the Electoral College, and he leads or is running even with Trump in some states that leaned Republican in 2016. As a result, Trump’s much-ballyhooed Electoral College advantage doesn’t look strong enough to save him — for the moment, at least.

The Times/Siena is one of the most highly-rated pollsters in FiveThirtyEight’s Pollster Ratings — one of six with an A+ mark — so these new surveys did adjust our averages a bit, most notably in Pennsylvania. There had been few high-quality polls conducted in the Keystone State, so our polling average did shift roughly 1.5 points in Biden’s favor because of the Times/Siena survey, which found Biden up by 10 points.



It wasn’t just the Times/Siena survey that found Biden up, either. We got two more polls of Pennsylvania today that showed Biden with double-digit leads. One from GOP pollster Hodas & Associates gave Biden a 12-point lead, and one from Redfield & Wilton Strategies put him up 10 points.

The new Times/Siena polls also bumped Biden’s margin up about a point in three other states: Michigan, North Carolina and Wisconsin. As a result, Biden’s average leads in Michigan and Wisconsin now exceed his national advantage. North Carolina, on the other hand, remains somewhat to the right of the country, but Biden still has about a 3-point lead. This marks a big change for Wisconsin, too, as up until this point, it had been more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole despite Biden’s lead there.
Wisconsin is the latest battleground state to lean blue

Wisconsin is the latest battleground state to lean blue
FiveThirtyEight polling averages as of 1 p.m. EDT on June 25, 2020
STATEBIDENTRUMPMARGINLEAN RELATIVE TO NATION
Colorado54.5%36.6%D+17.9D+8.3
Maine53.738.6D+15.1D+5.6
New Mexico54.440.4D+14.0D+4.5
Virginia50.839.4D+11.4D+1.9
Minnesota54.343.5D+10.8D+1.2
Michigan50.439.7D+10.7D+1.2
Wisconsin50.240.5D+9.6D+0.1
National50.641.1D+9.5EVEN
Nevada48.539.7D+8.8R+0.7
New Hampshire50.341.7D+8.6R+0.9
Pennsylvania50.542.3D+8.1R+1.4
Florida49.142.2D+6.8R+2.7
Arizona47.542.7D+4.8R+4.7
North Carolina47.344.1D+3.2R+6.3
Ohio48.245.5D+2.7R+6.8
Georgia47.145.7D+1.4R+8.1
Iowa45.945.5D+0.4R+9.2
Texas46.546.9R+0.4R+9.9
“Lean relative to nation” is how much more pro-Biden or pro-Trump a state’s polling average is than the national polling average.

“Lean relative to nation” is how much more pro-Biden or pro-Trump a state’s polling average is than the national polling average.

The other thing to note here is that Biden is above 50 percent in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. This is significant because even though Hillary Clinton led in these states at points in 2016, she never crossed the 50 percent threshold. That speaks to just how durable Biden’s lead might be.

But perhaps what’s even more significant about this batch of recent polls is that Trump’s possible Electoral College advantage is slipping. Biden doesn’t lead by as much in most of the battleground states as he does nationally, but his leads are big enough — anywhere from 5 points in Arizona to 9 points in Nevada — that it won’t matter that many battleground states lean to the right of the country.

Take Biden’s leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Those three Frost Belt states were each decided by less than 1 point in the 2016 election, yet Biden leads them all by at least 8 points. That gives him a firmer grip on the Electoral College. The race, of course, could narrow in the coming months, but as the Times/Siena surveys found, Biden also has a sizable edge in states such as Arizona and Florida, which means even if his position weakens in the Midwest — perhaps some white Republican-leaning voters come home to Trump — Biden’s strength in other parts of the country might be less affected and still give him a path to victory with 270 electoral votes.

And the fact that Biden now has multiple paths to the White House is the biggest problem facing Trump. He needs a notable shift in voter sentiment that makes the national environment less favorable for Biden. With four months to go, that’s quite possible, but at the moment, our polling averages suggest that he’s in a lot of trouble.


Geoffrey Skelley is an elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. @geoffreyvs



Trump is in a precarious position for re-election – but he still has a chance

The numerous challenges of 2020 have hit Trump hard – but the conditions are ripe for a repeat surprise victory, some experts say



Daniel Strauss THE GUARDIAN 25 Jun 2020
 

Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at the BOK Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma, on 21 June. Photograph: Mike Logsdon/RMV/REX/Shutterstock

If Donald Trump wins the 2020 election and returns to the White House it won’t be by a landslide. And if he’s going to win at all he will need the US economy to rebound, to see suburban voters swing back in his direction, and overwhelm voters with a sense of optimism about another term under Trump.

That’s the verdict of about a dozen Republican veteran political strategists and operatives spoken to by the Guardian. Those priorities underscore the precarious situation the US president finds himself in. Most national and statewide polls show the former vice-president Joe Biden leading Trump, often by comfortable margins.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/21/us-presidential-election-mail-in-ballots-doubt
A 2000 repeat in 2020? Concerns mount over ‘integrity’ of US election
The numerous challenges of 2020 have hit the president hard. He has struggled to offer consistent leadership on the coronavirus and been lambasted for mishandling a pandemic that has killed more than 120,000 Americans. The resulting economic crisis has seen more than 40 million people make unemployment claims. He’s also received severe criticism in responding to protests over the death of George Floyd, an African American man who died in police custody, and suffered the usual political scandals, such as a roasting by former top adviser John Bolton.

None of that, though, means Trump has no chance of re-election, these strategists said.


Contrary to the polls and the tumbling economic indicators, some Republicans across the country have shown a strong sense of optimism that the conditions are ripe for a repeat of Trump’s surprise victory in 2016.

But that’s only if a few important fundamentals change. The economy is the top priority followed by whether Trump can win over key voting constituencies beyond his core base. He also has to convince the electorate that a second term will less chaotic than the first.

“He has to remind people that what he said he would do he’s done. Clearly the things out of his control are the only things that are hampering him,” said Republican pollster Rex Elsass. “So he needs to remind people that when things are normal – and they will be! They won’t be chaotic forever – we have an opportunity to continue to restore the economy and strengthen America’s position internationally. The optimism that had been in America can be restored and will be restored.”

To an extent, the Trump campaign has already begun to pivot in its approach. Trump’s campaign has tweaked a key pillar of its message, now promising a “great American comeback” after the catastrophic financial downturn coinciding with the coronavirus pandemic.

The economy is a longtime silver bullet for American political campaigns. James Carville, the strategist for Bill Clinton, propagated the phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” and for the operatives who see a hidden path for a Trump victory, it’s through the economy.


I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the crazinessChris Wilson

“If we have an economy in which unemployment goes back down to 5% or below, if we have a Dow that is above 40,000 … I think in the fall you’re going to have a situation where people are going to forget all the craziness and give him credit for what will be seen as a pretty remarkable if not historic turnaround,” said Republican pollster Chris Wilson.

But Trump can’t ignore the specter of Joe Biden, his Democratic rival.

Republicans regularly mock the former vice-president and de facto Democratic nominee for essentially campaigning from his basement, but he still polls ahead of Trump in head-to-head matchups. What’s more, Trump is viewed more unfavorably than Biden. A Quinnipiac poll released Thursday found a majority of those surveyed view Trump unfavorably compared to a plurality who view Biden unfavorably. Both candidates are underwater in favorability.

So to win, Trump will have to successfully frame Biden as an untenable choice to most voters.

“It’s hard to imagine Donald Trump winning a referendum on his presidency unless the world changes dramatically between now and November,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster. “So that means his best hope of re-election is to make it a choice where Joe Biden becomes defined as an unacceptable alternative. That’s going to be substantially more challenging than it was in 2016 because Joe Biden doesn’t generate the same degree of animosity as Hillary Clinton did.

Ayres though said that unlike in past presidential cycles, the 2020 election is not shaping up to where a small and select set of states is the only pathway for either candidate. Even though Biden is leading in key midwestern states such as Wisconsin and Michigan there are other pathways to victory.

“There are many other states that are well beyond the big three of the upper midwest that appear at this point to be in play. I mean you’re looking at Arizona, Georgia seems close, Texas seems close, Iowa and Ohio seem like tossups right now that Trump won comfortably,” Ayres continued. “Biden seems to have a pretty significant lead in Michigan and Pennsylvania is his home state. Wisconsin seems to be the closest of the big three up in the rust belt. There are a lot different scenarios where Biden could get to 270 as well as Trump getting to 270 because there are so many more states in play than the half dozen that we usually focus on.”


Top Democratic officials hope that a groundswell of support among minority voters will carry Biden to victory, a view shared by the Republican strategist Stuart Stevens. Stevens argued that the deciding factor for 2020 would be turnout of African Americans and white voters, not any specific state.

“If non-white turnout goes back to what it was in 12, 08, even 04, Trump should lose,” Stevens, who has joined the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, said. “If it doesn’t he has a shot.”


THE MAGIC NUMBER IS 333
  • In Michigan, The Times and Siena found Biden leading Trump by 11 points47% to 36%.  Trump carried the state by 0.3 percentage points in 2016. 
  • In Wisconsin, the poll found Biden leading Trump by 11 points, 49% to 38%. Trump carried Wisconsin by 0.7 percentage points in 2016. 
  • In Pennsylvania, the poll found Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 50% to 40%. Trump carried Pennsylvania by 0.7 percentage points in 2016. 
  • In North Carolina, the poll found Biden leading Trump by nine points, 49% to 40%. Trump carried North Carolina 3.6 percentage points in 2016.
  • In Florida, the poll found Biden leading Trump by six points, 47% to 41%. Trump carried Florida by 1.2 percentage points in 2016.
  • In Arizona, the poll found Biden leading Trump by seven points, 48% to 41%. Trump won Arizona by 3.5 percentage points in 2016.
https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-white-voters-polling-swing-states-trump-2020-6

If Biden sweeps those states, he’d be at least 333 Electoral College votes, far more than the 270 needed to carry the White House and slightly more than President Obama managed in his 2012 reelection campaign.