Scientists Use Fruit Peel to Turn Old Lithium-Ion Batteries Into New

TOPICS:Battery TechnologyEnergyNanyang Technological UniversityRecycle

By NANYANG TECHNOLOGICAL UNIVERSITY AUGUST 29, 2020

A team of scientists led by NTU has developed a novel method of using fruit peel waste to extract and reuse precious metals from spent lithium-ion batteries in order to create new batteries. L-R: Asst Prof Dalton Tay, Prof Madhavi Srinivasan. Credit: NTU Singapore

Scientists led by Nanyang Technological University, Singapore (NTU Singapore) have developed a novel method of using fruit peel waste to extract and reuse precious metals from spent lithium-ion batteries in order to create new batteries.

The team demonstrated their concept using orange peel, which recovered precious metals from battery waste efficiently. They then made functional batteries from these recovered metals, creating minimal waste in the process.

The scientists say that their waste-to-resource approach tackles both food waste and electronics waste,  supporting the development of a circular economy with zero waste, in which resources are kept in use for as long as possible. An estimated 1.3 billion tonnes of food waste and 50 million tonnes of e-waste are generated globally each year.

Spent batteries are conventionally treated with extreme heat (over 500°C) to smelt valuable metals, which emits hazardous toxic gases. Alternative approaches that use strong acid solutions or weaker acid solutions with hydrogen peroxide to extract the metals are being explored, but they still produce secondary pollutants that pose health and safety risks, or rely on hydrogen peroxide which is hazardous and unstable.

The team demonstrated their concept using orange peel, which recovered precious metals from battery waste efficiently. They then made functional batteries from these recovered metals, creating minimal non-toxic waste in the process. Credit: NTU Singapore

Professor Madhavi Srinivasan, co-director of the NTU Singapore-CEA Alliance for Research in Circular Economy (NTU SCARCE) lab, said: “Current industrial recycling processes of e-waste are energy-intensive and emit harmful pollutants and liquid waste, pointing to an urgent need for eco-friendly methods as the amount of e-waste grows. Our team has demonstrated that it is possible to do so with biodegradable substances.

“These findings build on our existing body of work at SCARCE under NTU’s Energy Research Institute (ERI@N). The SCARCE lab was set up to develop greener ways of recycling e-waste. It is also part of the NTU Smart Campus initiative, which aims to develop technologically advanced solutions for a sustainable future.”

Assistant Professor Dalton Tay of the NTU School of Materials Science and Engineering and School of Biological Sciences said: “In Singapore, a resource-scarce country, this process of urban mining to extract valuable metals from all kinds of discarded electronics becomes very important. With this method, we not only tackle the problem of resource depletion by keeping these precious metals in use as much as possible, but also the problem of e-waste and food waste accumulation – both a growing global crisis.”

The findings were published in the scientific journal Environmental Science & Technology in July.

A low-cost, sustainable approach

With industrial approaches to recycling battery waste generating harmful pollutants, hydrometallurgy – using water as a solvent for extraction – is increasingly being explored as a possible alternative. This process involves first shredding and crushing used batteries to form a crushed material called black mass. Researchers then extract valuable metals from black mass by dissolving it in a mix of strong acids or weak acids plus other chemicals like hydrogen peroxide under heat, before letting the metals precipitate.

While relatively more eco-friendly than conventional methods, the use of such strong chemicals on an industrial scale could generate a substantial amount of secondary pollutants, posing significant safety and health risks, said Asst Prof Tay.

A waste-to-resource approach to recycling batteries. Credit: NTU Singapore

The NTU team found that the combination of orange peel that has been oven-dried and ground into powder, and citric acid, a weak organic acid found in citrus fruits, can achieve the same goal. 

In lab experiments, the team found that their approach successfully extracted around 90 percent of cobalt, lithium, nickel, and manganese from spent lithium-ion batteries – a comparable efficacy to the approach using hydrogen peroxide.

Asst Prof Tay explained: “The key lies in the cellulose found in orange peel, which is converted into sugars under heat during the extraction process. These sugars enhance the recovery of metals from battery waste. Naturally-occurring antioxidants found in orange peel, such as flavonoids and phenolic acids, could have contributed to this enhancement as well.”

Importantly, solid residues generated from this process were found to be non-toxic, suggesting that this method is environmentally sound, he added.

From the recovered materials, they then assembled new lithium-ion batteries, which showed a similar charge capacity to commercial ones. Further research is underway to optimize the charge-discharge cycling performance of these new batteries made from recovered materials.

This suggests that this new technology is “practically feasible for recycling spent lithium-ion batteries in the industrial sense,” said the researchers.

The team is now looking to further improve the performance of their batteries generated from treated battery waste. They are also optimizing the conditions to scale up production and exploring the possibility of removing the use of acids in the process.

Prof Madhavi, who is also from NTU’s School of Materials Science and Engineering and ERI@N, said: “This waste-to-resource approach could also potentially be extended to other types of cellulose-rich fruit and vegetable waste, as well as lithium-ion battery types such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxide. This would help to make great strides towards the new circular economy of e-waste, and power our lives in a greener and more sustainable manner.”

Reference: “Repurposing of Fruit Peel Waste as a Green Reductant for Recycling of Spent Lithium-Ion Batteries” by Zhuoran Wu, Tanto Soh, Jun Jie Chan, Shize Meng, Daniel Meyer, Madhavi Srinivasan and Chor Yong Tay, 9 July 2020, Environmental Science & Technology.
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.0c02873

The research, which comes under NTU SCARCE, is supported by the National Research Foundation, the Ministry of National Development, and the National Environment Agency under the Closing the Waste Loop R&D Initiative as part of the Urban Solutions & Sustainability−Integration Fund.

Relentless Wildfires Across Northern California Leave Vast Burn Scars

TOPICS:Earth ObservatoryNASAWildfires

By KASHA PATEL, NASA EARTH OBSERVATORY AUGUST 29, 2020

August 26, 2020. (Click image for high-resolution view.)

After more than a week, the seemingly relentless wildfires across Northern California appeared to be waning and better controlled thanks to lighter winds, lower air temperatures, and some extra firefighting assistance to aid California’s crews. Nonetheless, the fires have left extensive scars on the landscape.

August 26, 2020. (Click image for high-resolution view.)

The images above show burn scars from the two largest blazes in what fire managers are calling the August Lightning Siege of 2020, when lightning strikes ignited hundreds of wildfires across Northern California. The images were acquired on August 26 by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Terra satellite. Red marks depict “fire detections,” or pixels in which the sensor and a computer algorithm indicated there was active fire. The false-color image uses a combination of visible and infrared light (MODIS bands 7,2,1) to better show the burn scars through the smoke. Burned vegetation appears brown and unburned vegetation appears bright green.

Since August 17, 2020, wildfires have burned through more than 1 million acres (4,000 square kilometers), destroyed around 2,000 structures, and caused at least seven deaths. The LNU Lightning Complex near Santa Rosa and the SCU Lightning Complex near San Jose had each burned more than 360,000 acres (140,000 square kilometers) as of August 27—making them the second and third largest fires by acreage in state history. Both fires were about 33 percent contained.

August 25, 2020. (Click image for high-resolution view.)

Wildfire smoke has significantly degraded air quality across Northern California and is spreading toward central and eastern parts of North America. Citizens reported hazy skies in North Dakota, Indiana, and even Virginia. Wildfire smoke is particularly harmful because it contains fine particulate matter that can cause breathing and lung problems, particularly for people with asthma.

The map above shows the concentration of black carbon particulates—commonly called soot—on August 25. Black carbon can harm humans and other animals by entering the lungs and bloodstream; it also plays a role in global warming. The black carbon map comes from the GEOS forward processing (GEOS-FP) model, which assimilates data from satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observing systems. In this case, GEOS-FP assimilated fire and aerosol observations with meteorological data on air temperature, moisture, and winds to project the behavior and extent of the plume.

NASA Earth Observatory images by Lauren Dauphin and Joshua Stevens, using MODIS data from NASA EOSDIS/LANCE and GIBS/Worldview and GEOS-5 data from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office at NASA GSFC.

UCLA Scientists Test Decontamination Methods for N95 Respirators so They Can Be Used Again

TOPICS:COVID-19Infectious DiseasesUCLA

By UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - LOS ANGELES AUGUST 29, 2020

N95 respirators, which are widely worn by health care workers treating patients with COVID-19 and are designed to be used only once, can be decontaminated effectively and used up to three times, according to research by UCLA scientists and colleagues. Credit: CDC/Debora Cartagena

Scientists hope new methods can mitigate the chronic shortage of personal protective equipment.

N95 respirators, which are widely worn by health care workers treating patients with COVID-19 and are designed to be used only once, can be decontaminated effectively and used up to three times, according to research by UCLA scientists and colleagues.

An early-release version of their study has been published online, with the full study to appear in September in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases.

N95 respirators reduce exposure to airborne infectious agents, including SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, and are one of the key pieces of personal protective equipment used by clinical workers in preventing the spread of the virus. Critical shortages of these masks have driven efforts to find new decontamination methods that can extend their use.

“Although N95 respirators are designed for just one use before disposal, in times of shortage, N95 respirators can be decontaminated and reused up to three times,” said James Lloyd-Smith, a co-author of the study and a UCLA professor of ecology and evolutionary biology. “But the integrity of the respirator’s fit and seal must be maintained.”

In a controlled laboratory setting, the researchers tested several decontamination methods on small sections of N95 filter fabric that had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2. The methods included vaporized hydrogen peroxide, dry heat at 70 degrees Celsius (158 degrees Fahrenheit), ultraviolet light and a 70% ethanol spray. All four methods eliminated detectable viable virus traces from the N95 fabric test samples.

The investigators then treated fully intact, clean respirators with the same decontamination methods to test their reuse durability. Employees with the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratories in Montana volunteered to wear the masks for two hours to determine if they maintained a proper fit and seal over the face. The scientists decontaminated each mask three times, using the same procedure with each.

The masks treated with vaporized hydrogen peroxide experienced no failures, suggesting they potentially could be reused three times, Lloyd-Smith said. Those treated with ultraviolet light and dry heat began showing fit and seal problems after three decontaminations, suggesting these respirators potentially could be reused twice.

The study authors concluded that vaporized hydrogen peroxide was the most effective method because no traces of the virus could be detected after only a 10-minute treatment. They found that ultraviolet light and dry heat are also acceptable decontamination procedures, as long as the methods are applied for at least 60 minutes.

The ethanol spray, the scientists discovered, damaged the integrity of the respirator’s fit and seal after two sessions, and they do not recommend it for decontaminating N95 respirators.

The researchers stressed that anyone decontaminating an N95 respirator should closely check the fit and seal over the face before each reuse.

Reference: “Effectiveness of N95 Respirator Decontamination and Reuse against SARS-CoV-2 Virus” by Robert J. Fischer, Dylan H. Morris, Neeltje van Doremalen, Shanda Sarchette, M. Jeremiah Matson, Trenton Bushmaker, Claude Kwe Yinda, Stephanie N. Seifert, Amandine Gamble, Brandi N. Williamson, Seth D. Judson, Emmie de Wit, James O. Lloyd-Smith and Vincent J. Munster, 3 June 2020, Emerging Infectious Diseases.
DOI: 10.3201/eid2609.201524

Co-authors of the study include Amandine Gamble, a UCLA postdoctoral researcher in Lloyd-Smith’s laboratory, as well as researchers with Rocky Mountain Laboratories, part of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Funding sources included the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, and the National Science Foundation.

In a widely cited study, Lloyd-Smith and colleagues reported in March that the virus that causes COVID-19 remains for several hours to days on surfaces and in aerosols.

Dramatic Tale of Environmental Change Told by Ancient Fossil Trees on Peru’s Central Andean Plateau

TOPICS:Atmospheric ScienceEnvironmentGeologyPaleontologyPlant ScienceSmithsonian Tropical Research Institute

By SMITHSONIAN TROPICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE AUGUST 29, 2020

Caption: Left to right: Florentino Tunquipa who discovered and excavated the fossil tree on his land, Rodolfo Salas Gismondi, Carlos Jaramillo, Julia Tejada, Federico Moreno, Camila Martínez. San Miguel Community, Espinar Municipality, Cusco Department, Peru. 2014. Credit: Rodolfo Salas Gismondi

On an expedition to the Central Andean Plateau, researchers from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) and colleagues were astounded to find a huge fossil-tree buried in the cold, grassy plain. The plant fossil record from this high-altitude site in southern Peru contains dramatic reminders that the environment in the Andes mountains changed drastically during the past 10 million years, but not in the ways that climate models of the past suggest. Findings from the expedition are presented in the journal Science Advances.

Paleontologist Edwin Cadena poses next to giant, fossilized (permineralized) tree on Peruvian Central Plateau. Credit: Carlos Jaramillo, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute

“This tree and the hundreds of fossil wood, leaf and pollen samples we collected on the expedition, reveal that when these plants were alive the ecosystem was more humid–even more humid than climate models of the past predicted,” said Camila Martinez, a fellow at STRI, who recently finished her doctorate at Cornell University. “There is probably no comparable modern ecosystem, because temperatures were higher when these fossils were deposited 10 million years ago.”

The anatomy of the petrified (permineralized) wood the researchers found is very much like wood anatomy in low-elevation tropical forests today. Indeed, the altitude then was probably only 2,000 meters above sea level.

But that ecosystem did not last for long. Today, the arid, intermountain plateau lies at 4,000 meters above sea level.

Five million year-old fossils from the same sites confirmed that the Puna ecosystem that now dominates the Andes’ high mountain plateaus had been born: the younger pollen samples were mostly from grasses and herbs, rather than from trees. Leaf material was from ferns, herbs, and shrubs, indicating that the plateau had already risen to its current altitude.

“The fossil record in the region tells us two things: both the altitude and the vegetation changed dramatically over a relatively short period of time, supporting a hypothesis that suggests the tectonic uplift of this region occurred in rapid pulses,” said Carlos Jaramillo, STRI staff scientist, and project leader.

Team visiting Crisoldo Cárdenas, known in the region for his fossil findings. San Miguel Community, Espinar Municipality, Cusco Department, Peru. 2014. From left to right: Federico Moreno, Nandini Kar, María Isabel Vélez, Crisoldo Cárdenas, Julia Tejada, Carlos Jaramillo, Gustavo Ballén, Drew Lubiniecki Below: Edwin Cadena, Rodoldo Salas Gismondi. Credit: Rodolfo Salas Gismondi

“Andean uplift played an important role in shaping the climate of South America, but the relationship between the rise of the Andes, local climates and vegetation is still not well understood,” Martinez said. “By the end of this century, changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations will again approximate the conditions 10 million years ago. Understanding the discrepancies between climate models and data based on the fossil record help us to elucidate the driving forces controlling the current climate of the Altiplano, and, ultimately, the climate across the South American continent.

###

Reference: “Neogene precipitation, vegetation, and elevation history of the Central Andean Plateau” by C. Martínez, C. Jaramillo, A. Correa-Metrío, W. Crepet, J. E. Moreno, A. Aliaga, F. Moreno, M. Ibañez-Mejia and M. B. Bush, 28 August 2020, Science Advances.
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aaz4724

Author affiliations include: STRI; Cornell University; CNRS, EPHE, IRD, Montpellier; Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; Museo de Historia Natural, Lima, Peru; University of Rochester, Rochester, New York; and the Florida Institute of Technology.

KAPITALISMUS IS KRISIS

Covid-19 has hit advanced economies and Latin America particularly hard

Total coronavirus deaths per 100k versus projected decline in economic growth (2020)

Projected decline in economic growth in 2020 (%)

Italy

Spain

France

Population

Latin America and

the Caribbean

1 billion

UK

2 billion

10

Brazil

US

Germany

Advanced Economies

Emerging and Developing Europe

5

Middle East and Central Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

Emerging and Developing Asia

0

China

0

20

40

60

Total Covid-19 deaths per 100k

SOURCE: JOHN HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

Exclusive: British Library’s chief librarian claims 'racism is the creation of white people'

Liz Jolly supports changes to displays and collections in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests to purge 'perceived racism' at the library

ByCraig Simpson 29 August 2020 • 

The building was designed by architect and former naval officer Sir Colin Wilson, and evokes the shape and character of an ocean-going craft CREDIT: Anadolu Agency

The British Library’s chief librarian has claimed “racism is a creation of white people” and backed calls for major cultural change at the institution, the Telegraph can reveal.

Liz Jolly manages the vast collection of literary treasures held by the institution, and is supporting changes to displays and collections in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests. Reforms are being proposed by a “Decolonising Working Group”, which claims the British Library’s London building is an imperialism symbol because it resembles a battleship.

Staff being supported to decolonise the UK’s national library have also suggested that traditional puppet Mr Punch reflects “colonial violence”

The Telegraph has exclusively obtained documents revealing these claims, and a letter endorsed hundreds of employees which declared a racial “state of emergency” at the institution.



In response to this emergency, an internal report called for the removal of statues of the library’s founding fathers, replacing “Eurocentric” maps, and reviewing collections of western classical music which staff branded part of the “outdated notion” of Western Civilization.

The institution recently faced calls for defunding from MPs after the Telegraph revealed employees had urged colleagues to donate to Black Lives Matter and back the work of Labour MP Dianne Abbott.

The Telegraph can now reveal that Chief Librarian Ms Jolly has urged white staff to support the institution's plans to purge the library of perceived racism.

In a video clip obtained by the Telegraph she tells colleagues: “I think, as I have said before, that we need to make sure some white colleagues are involved, because racism is a creation of white people.”

Ms Jolly receives between £120,000 and £125,000 per year for her work as Chief Librarian, a role she has held since 2018.

She has given her support to a broad “Anti-Racism Project” proposed in the wake of Black Lives Matter protests, telling colleagues “particularly pressing” work was ongoing to review “artworks in the St Pancras building”.

Ms Jolly assured staff that the project is “about developing and delivering major cultural change”, and part of this would be ensuring the repository of literary treasures will “reflect the diversity of Britain today”.

There are calls for the bust of the founder Sir Hans Sloane to be removed due to his connections with the slave trade CREDIT: Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images Europe

This followed on from a letter declaring a “state of emergency” at the library, signed by 200 employees, demanding BAME staff should review any job cuts which might affect employees with “protected characteristics” to ensure continued diversity at the library, better treatment of these workers, and ensuring the BAME Network has a say in who is employed as Head of Collections.

To tackle the legacy of “colonial violence” at the library, the letter also demands a statue of founder Sir Hans Sloane be removed.

This recommended removal is echoed in a report by the Decolonising Working Group, which claims that the “physical space” of the British Library contains “manifestations of the institution’s racism” by glorifying the British Empire.

Staff claim in the report that: “This glorification is hard to miss in the structure of the building itself, designed as it is in the form of a battleship, by far the greatest symbol of British imperialism.”

The building was designed by architect and former naval officer Sir Colin Wilson, who added maritime references such as portholes to the building.

In the report aimed at reforming the British Library “as a space”, visual aspects including a portrait of Mr Punch which hangs in the institution is critiqued.

Portrait of Mr Punch. Oil painting CREDIT: Alamy

The character, popular at seaside shows is: “A theatrical figure from the heyday of Victorian imperialism who ‘entertained’ through an abuse of women and children that mirrored colonial Violence.”

Staff have also claimed Library links to the “ongoing settler-colonisation of Palestine”, and have proclaimed that “every vacant wall” of the institution’s property should be used to advertise the cause of anti-racism.

Other recommended actions include reducing the number of European maps on display, being “tools of power”, and reviewing the presence of busts of Beethoven and Mendelssohn, whose revered status is part and parcel of “western civilizational supremacy”. The music collections should also be diversified, the report suggests.

The Decolonising Working Group is part of the BAME Network at the library, which advised colleagues to read Marxist authors and support Black Lives Matter, deeming “colour-blindness” a form of “covert white supremacy”.

Marble bust of Sir Joseph Banks (1743-1820) Botanist, Trustee and benefactor of the British Museum CREDIT: PjrTravel / Alamy Stock Photo

In their compiled report circulated among staff they demand the bust of another library founder, botanist Sir Joseph Banks, be removed and the statue of King George III be reviewed.

Their work has been acknowledged by the ongoing Anti-Racism Project at the institution, which is being backed Chief Executive Roly Keating and Chief Librarian Ms Jolly, who has enjoined white staff to advance the project to address the “creation by white people”

“This says to me that there is something fundamentally wrong with the leadership of the British Library,” said MP Ben Bradley.

“If the Chief Librarian is so unhappy with British history perhaps they should not be in that job.

“The very suggestion that racism only applies in one direction , by white people towards BAME people, is categorically false, inflammatory and divisive.”

The British Library houses almost 200 million objects, many of which have major importance to British history, culture, and literature. These include two copies of the Magna Carta.

The institution and Ms Jolly have been contacted for comment.

Coral develops 'osteoporosis' because of acidic oceans caused by climate change, study reveals

The ocean becomes more acidic as a result of more carbon dioxide building up

By Helena Horton

28 August 2020 • 2:54pm

Coral becomes deformed as a result of acidified oceans, a study has found 

CREDIT: TANE SINCLAIR-TAYLOR/AFP/Getty

Coral reefs develop 'osteoporosis' as a result of the ocean becoming more acidic due to carbon dioxide emissions, scientists have found.

As carbon dioxide builds up in concentration in the ocean, it becomes more acidic, and this is impeding the growth of coral, a new study in Geophysical Research Letters has revealed.

Scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) found significant reduction in the density of coral skeleton along much of the Great Barrier Reef, the world's largest coral reef system, and also on two reefs in the South China Sea, which they attribute largely to the increasing acidity of the waters surrounding these reefs since 1950.

"This is the first unambiguous detection and attribution of ocean acidification's impact on coral growth," said ead author and WHOI scientist Weifu Guo.

"Our study presents strong evidence that 20th century ocean acidification, exacerbated by reef biogeochemical processes, had measurable effects on the growth of a keystone reef-building coral species across the Great Barrier Reef and in the South China Sea. These effects will likely accelerate as ocean acidification progresses over the next several decades."


The ocean has experienced a 0.1 unit decline in pH since the pre-industrial era, and scientists are just now discovering what effect that has on marine life.

Ocean acidification, has led to a 20 percent decrease in the concentration of carbonate ions in seawater. Calcium carbonate is what corals use to create their skeletons, so this decline means that they are at risk.

Because of the reductions in these concentrations, the density of their skeletons reduces, silently whittling away at the coral's strength, much like osteoporosis weakens bones in humans.

"The corals aren't able to tell us what they're feeling, but we can see it in their skeletons," said Anne Cohen, a WHOI scientist and co-author of the study. "The problem is that corals really need the strength they get from their density, because that's what keeps reefs from breaking apart. The compounding effects of temperature, local stressors, and now ocean acidification will be devastating for many reefs."
Related Topics

#GIFTECONOMY

The bright side of indebtedness

USE VALUE VS EXCHANGE VALUE

Guglielmo Faldetta 
Society and Business Review

ISSN: 1746-5680

Publication date: 3 December 2018 Reprints & Permissions

Abstract
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to show that indebtedness can have a positive meaning for people who are embedded in social relationships in organizations if it is meant in the light of the notion of gratitude, gift-giving and generalized reciprocity.

Design/methodology/approach
The study reviews the literature on the common notion of indebtedness and integrates it with the literature on gratitude, gift-giving and generalized reciprocity.

Findings
The study reveals that through the notion of gratitude, gift-giving and generalized reciprocity people may conceive their indebtedness as gratitude for having received something, so triggering giving behaviors that does not necessarily aim to repay the debt, but to develop and feed their social relationships.

Originality/value
In the past indebtedness has been conceived as a negative feeling. This study reveals that it may have also a bright side when it is applied to people in flesh and bones, as they are immersed in good quality social relationships.

Keywords
   
Citation
Faldetta, G. (2018), "The bright side of indebtedness", Society and Business Review, Vol. 15 No. 1, pp. 26-34. https://doi.org/10.1108/SBR-11-2018-0132

 Download as .RIS
Publisher: Emerald Publishing Limited
Copyright © 2018, Emerald Publishing Limited

Putting the COVID-19 Death Toll Into Perspective – Here’s the Pandemic’s Impact on US Lifespan

TOPICS:COVID-19DeathPopularPublic HealthUC Berkeley

By UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - BERKELEY AUGUST 26, 2020

UC Berkeley demographers calculate pandemic’s impact on US lifespan based on projected mortality rates.

With over 170,000 COVID-19 deaths to date, and 1,000 more each day, America’s life expectancy may appear to be plummeting. But in estimating the magnitude of the pandemic, UC Berkeley demographers have found that COVID-19 is likely to shorten the average U.S. lifespan in 2020 by only about a year.

Seeking to put current COVID-19 mortality rates into historic, demographic and economic perspective, UC Berkeley demographers Ronald Lee and Joshua Goldstein calculated the consequences of U.S. lives lost to COVID-19 in 2020 using two scenarios. One was based on a projection of 1 million deaths for the year, the other on the more likely projection of 250,000 deaths.

Their findings, published online last week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal, conclude that 1 million deaths in 2020 would cut three years off the average U.S. life expectancy, while 250,000 deaths would reduce lifespans by about a year.

That said, without the societal efforts that have occurred to lessen the impact of COVID-19, there could have been 2 million deaths projected by the end of 2020, a reduction of the average U.S. lifespan by five years, the researchers pointed out.

Their estimated drop in life expectancy is modest, in part, because 250,000 deaths is not a large increase on top of the 3 million non-COVID-19 deaths expected for 2020, and because older people, who typically have fewer remaining years of life than others do, represent the most COVID-19 fatalities, the study notes.

Still, while COVID-19 mortality rates remain lower than those of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic, the coronavirus epidemic could be just as devastating as the longer-lasting HIV and opioid epidemics if mitigation efforts fail, the researchers said.

“The death toll of COVID-19 is a terrible thing, both for those who lose their lives and for their family, friends, colleagues and all whom their lives touched. Those are real people, not abstract statistics,” said Lee, a UC Berkeley professor emeritus of demography and associate director of the campus’s Center for the Economics and Demography of Aging.

“But the population perspective helps put this tragedy in a broader context. As we work to contain this epidemic, it is important to know that we have been through such mortality crises before,” he added.

Goldstein’s and Lee’s measures are based on factors that include a current U.S. population of 330 million, age-specific death rates and the economic valuation of saved lives.

Among their other findings:

• One million COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. in 2020 would be the equivalent of U.S. mortality levels in 1995, adding three years to each American’s biological age, albeit temporarily.

• The age gap (old versus young) for people dying from COVID-19 is marginally wider than during pre-pandemic times, while the male-female gap is slightly narrower. The researchers found similar death-by-age patterns across several countries.

• The economic cost of lives lost to COVID-19 in the U.S. is in the trillions of dollars. According to standard government measures, the demographers estimated that the loss of 1 million lives in 2020 would amount to between $10.2 and $17.5 trillion, while the amount for 250,000 deaths would range from $1.5 to $2.5 trillion.

Reference: “Demographic perspectives on the mortality of COVID-19 and other epidemics” by Joshua R. Goldstein and Ronald D. Lee, 20 August 2020, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2006392117