Sunday, August 01, 2021

Ultramarathon Mountain Race weather was predicted; impact was not


Researchers call for forecasts to better communicate weather effects on human health and activities.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

Conceptual model of warning value chain. 

IMAGE: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF WARNING CHAIN WAS PRODUCED BY THE WMO/WWRP'S HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER (HIWEATHER) PROJECT IN PURSUIT OF SUCCESSFUL WEATHER-HAZARDS WARNINGS. FROM OBSERVATION TO DECISION MAKING, THERE ARE SEVERAL “MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS” TO OVERCOME. COLLABORATIONS AMONG SCIENTISTS IN DIFFERENT AREAS, GOVERNMENTS, SOCIAL MEDIA, AND CITIZENS ARE NEEDED FOR SUCCESSFUL HAZARD PREVENTION. view more 

CREDIT: MODEL DESIGN BY WMO/WWRP HIWEATHER PROJECT

On May 22, about 170 ultramarathon racers were climbing an eight kilometer stretch of sand and gravel to a mountain top in Yellow River Stone Forest Park in northwest China. Suddenly, it seemed, the temperature dropped, the wind picked up, and the skies opened. Mostly dressed in shorts and t-shirts, armed with foil blankets, 29 runners were trapped, exposed to the weather elements. Twenty-one runners died and eight suffered injury, all from hypothermia. The tragedy sparked outrage in China: the weather was forecasted, so why didn’t the race organizers delay the race or better prepare the participants?

According to a multi-institute research team, the challenge is not necessarily predicting the weather, but rather better predicting the weather’s impact. They published an analysis of the May 22 weather events and a call to action for more comprehensive warning systems on July 29 in Advances in Atmospheric Sciences.

“A good quality weather forecast does not always lead to a successful hazard warning if gaps exist in the warning chain,” said first author Qinghong Zhang, professor in the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University, and director of the HIWeather International Coordination Office of WWRP (World Weather Research Program) under WMO (World Meteorological Organization). “The goal of this study is to identity the possible gaps where efforts can be put forth to improve future high-impact weather warning.”

In the reporting of the event, according to Zhang, descriptions differed. The media called the weather an “extreme” event, while the government described it as a “high-impact” event. In this paper, Zhang and her team analyzed six years of hourly observations in the month of May for the area where the weather most affected the runners. They found that the high-impact weather events that day were indeed extreme, as the cold temperature was in the bottom 5% and the high wind speed was in the top 5% of the 4,464 records examined. Contextualized with the human activities of the day, the weather also becomes high impact. Without the race occurring that day, Zhang said, the weather likely would have had little impact on human life and property.

“Our study indicated that our current medium-range forecasting models are capable of making reasonable forecasts for this event several days before its occurrence,” Zhang said, noting that the models predicted a nearly perfect 30-hour forecast of the weather leading to and during the event. “The tragedy occurred partly because detailed weather forecasts for the race site tailored to the specific needs of the users were not available. What the race organizers and runners really needed was the hypothermia risk forecast.”

The researchers point to the efforts of the WMO WWRP’s 10-year international High-Impact Weather Project (HIWeather), which aims to develop a chain of multidisciplinary inputs to better understand not just weather forecasts, but their potential impacts and how to best mitigate the variable circumstances. 

“More than only forecasting the weather, forecasting the hazards associated with the weather and their human and societal impacts are necessary in order to reduce the loss of life and property,” Zhang said. “Collaborations among scientists in different areas, governments, social media and citizens are needed for successful hazard prevention.”

Other contributors include Chan-Pang Ng, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Peking University; Kan Dai, Jun Xu and Jian Tang, China Meteorological Administration; Juanzhen Sun, National Center for Atmospheric Science, United States; and Mu Mu, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University.

Gaining insight into the Universe’s most powerful objects and events


A timely new collection reminds us that even in times of great hardship, our understanding of the Universe’s most explosive, spectacular and mysterious events and objects continues to grow

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SPRINGER

Supernovas, neutron stars, and neutron star mergers are some of the Universe’s most powerful events and mysterious objects, leftover after the burning of nuclear fuel is exhausted within massive stars. A new special issue of EPJ Special Topics entitled ‘Nuclear astrophysics in our time: supernovae, neutron stars and binary neutron star mergers’ edited by Debades Bandyopadhyay, Saha Institute of Nuclear Physics, Kolkata, India, brings together several papers that document our understanding of these astrophysical events and compact stars.

The collection comes at an important time for astrophysics and for our understanding of the core collapses that give rise to the supernovas that create neutron stars and black holes. The first measurement of gravitational waves in 2015 by the LIGO/VIRGO collaboration led to the first observation of the merger between neutron stars in a binary system in 2017.

The gravitational wave signal from the shell elliptical galaxy NGC 4993 which became known as GW170817 opened up new avenues for astrophysics and provided astronomy with a massive boost, particularly when it comes to the study of the nuclear processes that occur towards the end of a star’s lifetime.

The publication of this collection is made even more timely by the fact that it also happens to coincide with the 100-year anniversary of the introduction of the Saha thermal ionization equation. The formula integrated atomic physics and statistical mechanics to explain the spectral classification of stars and the processes occurring within the outer layers of such stellar bodies was developed by a young scientist named Meghnad Saha from the University of Calcutta.

Saha wrote the series of papers introducing the equation as the Spanish flu pandemic — ravaged the globe just as the COVID-19 pandemic now causes similar hardship. As such the collection offers a timely and inspiring reminder that even at the most challenging of times, science presses on and our understanding and knowledge of the Universe continues to be refined.

The papers included in the collection also highlight the fact that whilst the understanding of these objects and events is important in itself, our understanding of astronomy and astrophysics hinges on a better grasp of these powerful astrophysical phenomena.

 

References

D. Bandyopadhyay “Nuclear astrophysics in our time: supernovae, neutron stars and binary neutron star mergers” Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top. 230, 491–493 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjs/s11734-021-00009-z

 

Decoding how salamanders walk


Peer-Reviewed Publication

TOHOKU UNIVERSITY

Decoding How Salamanders Walk 

IMAGE: A SCHEMATIC OF A SALAMANDER WALKING THAT DEMONSTRATES ITS LATERAL BODY BENDING. view more 

CREDIT: ISHIGURO-KANO LABResearchers at Tohoku University and the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne, with the support of the Human Frontier Science Program, have decoded the flexible motor control mechanisms underlying salamander walking.

Their findings were published in the journal Frontiers in Neurorobotics on July 30, 2021.

Animals with four feet can navigate complex, unpredictable, and unstructured environments. The impressive ability is thanks to their body-limb coordination.

The salamander is an excellent specimen for studying body-limb coordination mechanisms. It is an amphibian that uses four legs and walks by swaying itself from left to right in a motion known as undulation.

Their nervous system is simpler than those of mammals, and they change their walking pattern according to the speed at which they are moving.

To decode the salamander's movement, researchers led by Professor Akio Ishiguro of the Research Institute of Electrical Communication at Tohoku University modeled the salamander's nervous system mathematically and physically simulated the model.

In making the model, the researchers hypothesized that the legs and the body are controlled to support other motions by sharing sensory information. They then reproduced the speed-dependent gait transitions of salamanders through computer simulations.

"We hope this finding provides insights into the essential mechanism behind the adaptive and versatile locomotion of animals," said Ishiguro.

The researchers are confident their discovery will aid the development of robots that can move with high agility and adaptability by flexibly changing body-limb coordination patterns.

The environment for permafrost in Daisetsu Mountains in Japan is projected to decrease significantly


Peer-Reviewed Publication

NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Daisetsu Mountains in Hokkaido, Japan 

IMAGE: PERMAFROST EXISTS BECAUSE SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE IS LOW THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. view more 

CREDIT: NIES

 Areas with ground temperatures that remain below 0°C for more than two years are referred to as permafrost, and approximately one quarter of the Northern Hemisphere and 17% of the Earth’s exposed land surface is permafrost. Permafrost is found in mountainous areas as well as in high-latitude tundra and taiga regions. Recent observations have shown that the permafrost in mountainous areas is thawing in the European Alps, Scandinavia and on the Tibetan Plateau.

 The islands that make up Japan form a long arc that extends from tropical regions in the south to Palearctic regions in the north. Permafrost has been reported to exist in the 

Daisetsu Mountains, Mt. Fuji and Mt. Tateyama. The Daisetsu Mountains on the northern island of Hokkaido, which are known to support a variety of alpine plants and animals, are also a valuable natural resource that is visited by numerous climbers every year (Picture 1). However, there is some concern that the thawing of permafrost will have a major impact on this mountain ecosystem. No projections of future permafrost distribution have been undertaken in East Asia, including in Japan, to date.

 In this study, by applying the statistical method developed in a previous study for estimating the permafrost distribution to outputs from bias-corrected and downscaled climate model with a 1 km resolution for the area of interest, we investigated the climatic conditions required to sustain permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains.

 Figure 1 shows the time series of the region of the climate conditions suitable to maintain permafrost in the Daisetsu Mountains. According to Figure 3, the region of the climate conditions suitable to maintain permafrost starts to decrease significantly in size from around 2000, and under both the low-carbon scenario consistent with Paris target (RCP2.6) and busines-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). The steep decline in the region at the end of the 20th century occurs because the surface air temperature increases significantly from around the year 2000 onward. The size of the area in the Daisetsu Mountains where climatic conditions were suitable for permafrost were estimated to be approximately 150 km2 in 2010. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, this area is projected to disappear by around 2070. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the area is projected to decrease to approximately 20 km2 by 2100.

 The finding that the climatic conditions of the Daisetsu Mountains are projected to shift towards conditions where permafrost will disappear regardless of the climate scenario used, indicates the importance of impact assessments and developing adaptation measures to climate change. Thawing of permafrost can have a significant impact on the surface vegetation and alpine ecosystems. Previous studies have shown that the thawing of permafrost can have a variety of adverse effects, including lowering groundwater levels and replacement of alpine meadows by steppes, extensive desertification such as that in the eastern and western parts of the Tibetan Plateau, and a decrease in species diversity due to warming. Moreover, thawing of the frozen ground reduces the stability of the ground in mountain regions, potentially increasing the frequency and magnitude of rock falls and landslides, which may affect the safety of trekkers that visit the Daisetsu Mountains annually. In order to deal with these problems, it is very important to monitor the environmental changes in mountainous areas. In addition to accurately monitoring changes in mountain environments, providing local governments with appropriate measures to prepare for major future environmental changes, as shown in this study, is an important issue for the future.

CAPTION

Results of historical (black) and future projections under the low-carbon scenario consistent with Paris target (RCP2.6, blue) and business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5, red) are shown. Thin broken lines show the results obtained from the four projections based on different global climate models, and the thick line is the average of the results using the four projections.

CREDIT

NIES


New report assesses effects of time sat down on mental health in pandemic


Public health policy should encourage reducing the amount of time spent sitting down to improve mental as well as physical health.


Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF HUDDERSFIELD

The study assessed the impact of sitting time and physical activity on mental health during the pandemic, and found that the increase in time spent sitting down had an adverse effect on mental health and even outweighed the benefits of regular exercise. 

Being allowed an hour of outdoor exercise on a daily basis was a key part of the UK government’s strategy in the first national lockdown that began in March 2020. However, the study found that a great proportion of people were spending more than eight hours a day sitting, due to working at home or being at a loose end while on furlough, were experiencing detrimental effects to their mental health. Even people who were being active, with around 150 minutes per week of moderate or vigorous physical activity, reported detrimental effects to their mental health. Even more exercise was required to counterbalance this more sedentary lifestyle. 

The findings have been collated in the report ‘The impact of sitting time and physical activity on mental health during COVID-19 lockdown’, published in Sport Sciences for Health

“I started from position of the government’s allowance of an hour’s outdoor activity during lockdown, which recognises the importance of exercise on mental and physical health,” says Dr Liane Azevedo, one of the report’s three authors along with Dr Susanna Kola-Palmer and Dr Matthew Pears. “ People looked forward to that exercise once a day for a bit of fresh air. 

“Although our sample of nearly 300 was very active, they were sitting for longer periods with over 50% sitting for more than eight hours a day. We found that sitting time, together with some demographics and pre-existing health conditions, were the main variables to negatively influence mental health and wellbeing. 

“Other studies have shown that if you sit for longer than eight hours, in order to compensate the negative effect of sedentary behaviour on physical health outcomes you need to exercise for longer. Around 60 minutes is ideal, but this is longer than the 30 minutes that is generally recommended as a minimum for daily exercise. 

“Reducing sitting time has a positive effect on mental health. We recommend that together with increase in physical activity, public health should encourage reduction of sitting time for mental health benefits.” 

The research by Dr Azevedo and her colleagues was also shared with Rebecca Elliot, Public Health Manager on mental wellbeing from Kirklees Council to help them assess the impact of Covid-19 on mental health in the local area.  

“Exactly what physical activity is should be better understood by people,” adds Dr Azevedo. “It is not just going to the gym. Just going for a walk specially in green areas  is really important, any type of  moderate activity does have benefits. We also noticed from our study that leisure and gardening are activities that help both physically and mentally. 

“We want to develop an intervention based on these findings, to focus on the decrease of sedentary behaviour as well as increase in physical activity to promote benefits on mental health.” 

Influenza: A century investigation

Book Announcement

BENTHAM SCIENCE PUBLISHERS

Influenza is one of the most ancient and intriguing diseases that has been accompanying our civilization for millennia. While mankind has successfully defeated many dangerous influenza infections in the last couple of centuries, influenza control remains a serious problem for public health. A number of influenza vaccines and antiviral compounds have been licensed in recent times. However, the influenza virus is still ahead of us, as it continues to persistently infect humans to this day. Influenza: A Century of Research shows how influenza virology has developed historically and the tremendous knowledge that has been uncovered in the study of influenza. In this monograph, the authors present a historical perspective on influenza, chronologically, with an emphasis on its virology. Chapters cover information about the isolation of the first influenza viruses, substrates, and models for studying influenza, structure, and life cycle of the influenza virus, mechanisms of attenuation and virulence. Chapters progress into the multidisciplinary aspects of influenza research such as influenza virus ecology and the evolutionary origin of epidemic and pandemic influenza viruses. A significant part of the book also covers the description of the prevention and treatment of influenza and reasons that have contributed to insufficient control for influenza. The questions of how the COVID-19 pandemic affects the circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses, and if we can eliminate this virus are also addressed.

The eBook covers a variety of influenza viruses and models for studying influenza, from the classic to the exotic, the tragic life of “the father of the Russian anti-flu bomb”, the development of the first live cold-adapted influenza vaccine, and much more. After analyzing advances in the field of influenza, the authors raise the question: Will we ever be able to defeat human influenza?

Influenza is one of the most mysterious and ancient diseases that have been accompanying our civilization for centuries. Humankind has successfully defeated many dangerous infections that caused harm to human health and safety. However, influenza control remains a serious problem for public health. A number of influenza vaccines and antiviral compounds have been licensed. However, the influenza virus is still ahead of us. This eBook aims to show how influenza virology has developed historically and the tremendous success that has been achieved in the study of influenza.

In this eBook, the authors have tried to illuminate knowledge on influenza from a historical perspective, chronologically, with an emphasis on the virological part of the studies. The eBook describes a history of isolation of the first influenza viruses, substrates, and models for studying influenza, structure, and life cycle of the influenza virus. Mechanisms involved in the attenuation and virulence of the influenza virus are also discussed. Influenza virus ecology and evolution, the origin of epidemic and pandemic influenza viruses is discussed as well. A significant part of the eBook is occupied by a description of the prevention and treatment of influenza and reasons that contributed to insufficient control for influenza. The question of how the COVID-19 pandemic affects on circulation of seasonal respiratory viruses was also aroused.

The intended audience for this eBook includes students of biological and medical colleges, Ph.D. students, post-docs, a wide range of virologists who are specialized in the field of influenza, and everyone interested in this infection.

Influenza: A Century of Research is an informative source of information for a broad range of readers, academic or otherwise, who are interested in knowing more about the disease.

About the authors

The eBook is written by two Russian virologists who work for the Institute of Experimental Medicine (IEM), St Petersburg, Russia.

Irina Kiseleva, Ph.D., D.Sc., a Professor in Virology, Head of the Laboratory of General Virology at the IEM. The areas of her specialized expertise are influenza prophylaxis by chemotherapeutic drugs and vaccine therapy, development of egg-derived and tissue culture-derived live attenuated influenza vaccines. Since 2013 she is also a full professor of Virology at St Petersburg University (St Petersburg, Russia). Irina Kiseleva is a prolific author, having published over 300 publications including 50 patents of the Russian Federation.

Natalie Larionova, Doctor of Biology, Leading Research Associate of the Laboratory of General Virology at the IEM, has extensive research experience in the evolution of influenza viruses, preventing flu using drug therapy, and live attenuated influenza vaccines. Together with her colleague, Prof. Irina Kiseleva, she developed the first Russian live attenuated vaccine against pandemic influenza virus A/California/7/2009 (H1N1)pdm09. She has published over 200 articles and 30 patents.

Keywords:

Vaccine Side Effects, antivirals vs antibiotics,genetics in influenza Virus, Viral infection, Thermal Stability of influenza Virus, Flu shots and symptoms, Influenza vaccine, History of influenza

For further information, please visit: https://bit.ly/3ld4KUk

Advances in Computing Communications and Informatics:

Technologies Shaping the Future

Book Announcement

BENTHAM SCIENCE PUBLISHERS

The Internet of Things (IoT) is an emerging technology that has enabled connection and communication between both virtual and physical objects, thereby improving our quality of life. The definition of IoT has evolved because of the convergence of numerous technologies such as embedded systems, commodity sensors, machine learning, and real-time analytics. IoT contributes towards the concept of connected vehicles, connected health, wearable technology, home automation, and appliances having remote monitoring capabilities. Even though these systems provide numerous advantages, the current centralized architecture brings forth numerous issues related to privacy, security, transparency, data integrity, and single point of failure. This, in turn, inhibits the future development of these IoT-based applications. Further, the radical digitization of industry coupled with the explosion of the Internet of Things (IoT) has set up a paradigm shift for industrial and manufacturing companies.

Owing to these issues, it becomes necessary to integrate IoT with a distributed ledger technology. Blockchain technology, an immutable, shared, distributed ledger, is the most suitable choice for a variety of reasons. It stores the various transaction information in a peer-to-peer (P2P) network and promotes information sharing among the network users. Owing to the fault tolerance capabilities, decentralized architecture and cryptographic security benefits such as authentication, data integrity, pseudonymous identities, security analysts and researchers consider blockchain to resolve privacy and security issues of IoT.

The use of hash functions, timestamps, and sophisticated cryptographic algorithms in blockchain technology enables a secure computing environment and provides a tamper-proof ledger that can safeguard against possible attacks. Also, blockchain is used in numerous applications such as healthcare, intelligent transportation, supply chain management, identity management, voting, and maintaining government records.

Due to these reasons, blockchain is considered the most disruptive and emerging future technology that will provide numerous opportunities to various industries. The emerging and promising state-of-the-art IoT and blockchain technology motivated us to propose this book, focusing on various aspects of IoT and blockchain systems like trust management, identity management, security threats, and access control and privacy. The book provides a comprehensive discussion on integrating the IoT system with blockchain technology, highlights the benefits of integration, and how blockchain technology resolves the issues of IoT systems.

Key features include:

  • Introduces the reader to fundamental concepts of IoT and blockchain technology
  • Reports advances in the field of IoT, ubiquitous computing and blockchain computing and the applications of different frameworks
  • Explains the role of blockchains in improving IT security and provides examples of smart grids, data transmission models, digital business platforms, agronomics and big data solutions

Blockchain Applications for Secure IoT Frameworks: Technologies Shaping the Future is a handy reference for information technology professionals and students who want updated information about applications of IoT and blockchains in secure operational and business processes.

Editors: Sudhir K. SharmaBharat BhushanParma N. AstyaNarayan C. Debnath

Keywords:

Construction technology, Manufacturing technology, Medical technology, energy power technology, transportation technology, Agriculture and biotechnology, Block chain technology, Voice technology, Science and technology, Tec news .

For Further Information visit: https://bit.ly/2V20fkA


Scientists explore Bacillus strains to control fungus spread in bananas


The Fusiarium wilt TR4 is ravaging banana plantations around the world


Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE ALLIANCE OF BIOVERSITY INTERNATIONAL AND THE INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR TROPICAL AGRICULTURE

Effectiveness of biocontrol Bacillus strains 

IMAGE: SEE MORE IN THE PAPER view more 

CREDIT: ALLIANCE OF BIOVERSITY INTERNATIONAL AND CIAT

Bananas are consumed in different ways around the world; with over 1000 varieties, one can surely find a way to use bananas besides simply eating the fruit. The Cavendish is the most commercially cultivated banana variety in the world, mainly because the characteristics of Cavendish banana plants are more climate and extreme weather resilient, and can withstand global transport. However, these characteristics doesn’t make it immune to pest and diseases.

The Fusiarium wilt is a fungus that attacks the banana plant and causes the plant to dry up and die. One of the most dangerous strains is the Tropical Race 4 (TR4) and with no known universal control measure, it seriously threatens banana production globally, particularly the Cavendish.

In a paper published in an MPDI Journal of Fungus, scientists explored disease-biocontrol agents of five Bacillus strains that display antibiotic ability against TR4 in China, one of the largest banana growers in the world.

Bioagents as pesticides

The threat of TR4 crossed oceans and brought hectares of Cavendish plantations to a halt driving smallholder farmers into poverty.

Today, there is only one Bacillus subtilis bioagent registered in China as a pesticide against TR4. More recent research suggests however, that there are other strains that can provide control over TR4—these strains can trigger either direct or indirect antagonism on the fungus.

In terms of the need to expand biocontrol methods against TR4, Sijun Zheng, a scientist at the Alliance says, “the effectiveness of bioagents depend on its capability to colonize into host plants—this is why we need to explore other strains of Bacillus and other bioagents to combat TR4 more efficiently.”

By looking at specific gene markers, the research team found that all five Bacillus strains, namely N67, YN1282-2, WBN06, HN04, and G9R-3 have the ability to perform antagonistic biocontrol methods against TR4. The biocontrol genes studied are capable of making bacillibactin and biotin, both essential in producing antagonistic effects against TR4. In particular, strains WBN06 and YN1282-2 contained all but one biocontrol gene influencing a better control of TR4 compared to the other three strains that were studied through real-time Fluorescent Reverse Transcription Quantitative Polymerase Chain Reaction.

Unlike other pest and diseases in crops, there is no effective chemical control agent known to manage this soil-borne pathogen TR4.

By looking at what is present in the genes of the Bacillus, it presents an opportunity to explore functional gene’s biocontrol mechanisms against the deadly fungus. This study also opens up the door to see how these Bacillus strains can affect human beings and the ecosystem where it will be deployed.

CAPTION

See more in the paper

CREDIT

Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT

Flood water: Toxins from the riverbed

Researchers from Goethe University present review on the release of pollutants from sediments

Peer-Reviewed Publication

GOETHE UNIVERSITY FRANKFURT

FRANKFURT. Sediments are regarded as a river’s long-term memory. They mainly comprise particles that are eroded from the ground, ending up at some point in river deltas or the sea. However, sediments can also remain stable for a relatively long time – and bind pollutants which, for example, have entered the rivers through mining or industrial wastewater. As a consequence, many old river sediments contain pollutants as “chemical time bombs”, such as heavy metals or dioxins and dioxin-like compounds that are not easily degradable.

During flood events in the more industrial regions of Europe, North America and Asia, old sediments can be churned up as a result of the high speeds at which the water is flowing. In the process, the pollutants bound in them are regularly released in one go and contaminate flooded areas. An interdisciplinary team of researchers from Goethe University, RWTH Aachen University and the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, along with other partners, has compiled a review of previous scientific studies on this topic. In it, the researchers, headed by junior research group leader Dr Sarah Crawford in Frankfurt and Canadian researcher Professor Markus Brinkmann, show, for example, which pollutant loads were measured after various flood events, which test systems were developed for different pollutants and how different sediments behave when water flows at high speeds. It describes the risks for drinking water production, the influence of temperature on pollutant intake by fish and methods for assessing the economic costs associated with the remobilisation of pollutants.

Despite the many years of research on this subject, Henner Hollert, professor of environmental toxicology at Goethe University and senior author of the publication in hand, is greatly concerned: “I have the impression that the problem of pollutants from old sediments is greatly underestimated in Germany and also in Europe as a whole. One reason for this could also be that to date there have been practically no studies at all on the economic consequences of this problem, as we’ve been able to show. However, contaminated sediments are a ticking time bomb that can explode each time there’s a flood. What we need now is good river management across the board that not only looks at immediate hazards for humans, animals and infrastructure but also at the long-term consequences resulting from pollutants in the riverbeds. It’s imperative, for example, that we examine flooded areas used agriculturally for river-specific pollutants so that these do not end up on our plates in the form of meat and dairy products.”

In an interdisciplinary approach, researchers from Goethe University Frankfurt, in collaboration with RWTH Aachen University, the University of Saskatchewan in Canada, the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research in Leipzig, the Institute for Social-Ecological Research (ISOE), the Senckenberg Institute, the LOEWE Centre for Translational Biodiversity Genomics and many other partners, are also studying the recent extreme flood events in Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia in terms of hydraulic engineering and the biological, ecotoxicological, ecological, geoscientific but also the social-ecological and economic consequences. These studies are embedded in the new research cluster RobustNature at Goethe University, which is examining the robustness and resilience of nature-society systems in the changing Anthropocene and aims to contribute to knowledge-based transformation research using the examples of biodiversity and water – that is, from knowledge to action.

Picture material can be downloaded from: www.uni-frankfurt.de/103948311

Caption: The remobilisation of pollutants from sediments during severe flooding is a so far underestimated consequence of extreme events. Graphics: Crawford, S. et al. (2021) J. Haz. Mat.

Scholars gauged energy inequality among Eurasian Economic union member states


Russia has the lowest energy efficiency, while Armenia leads for renewable energy development

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NATIONAL RESEARCH UNIVERSITY HIGHER SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS

The amount of energy consumption depends on various parameters: GDP, population, income disparities, etc. Using these indicators, it is possible to measure energy inequality both within individual countries and between whole groups of countries on a regional scale. HSE University and University of Genoa researchers Liliana Proskuryakova https://www.hse.ru/staff/proskuryakova, Alyona Starodubtseva and Vincenzo Bianco focused on the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) member states of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia. Although together, they represent one of the largest energy markets in the world, the question of regional energy inequality remains largely unexamined. The collaboration between Russian and Italian scholars has helped fill that gap. They published the results of their research in the journal Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1364032121004445.

On What Was the Study Based?

Researchers based their work on data from 2000-2017 and employed several methods. First, they analysed scientific research on the EAEU energy sector. It turned out that no more than 20 such studies were available on the ScienceDirect and Web of Science databases.

Second, they studied EAEU sustainable development goal documents concerning both the Union as a whole and its member states. These included programmes, declarations, press releases and official reports. Researchers also used international and national statistical data to verify the information contained in political statements.

Third, the researchers used mathematical methods of analysis. Two of those methods, suitable for understanding trends in energy consumption, were used to measure the level of energy inequality: the decomposition of energy consumption factors using the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and the estimation of inequality using the Theil index. 

The decomposition analysis yielded an ‘ideal decomposition of energy consumption’ — that is, an understanding of the contribution of each factor and each country to consumption trends in the EAEU region.

The Theil index, calculated based on annual energy consumption, GDP variables, population, etc. provided estimates of energy inequality according to two components: ‘inside’ (the degree of inequality for reasons internal to the country) and ‘between’ (the contribution to inequality of the region in which the country is located).

 

What Was the Result?

 

Electricity consumption in the EAEU increased by 153% from 2000 to 2017, with a cumulative annual growth rate of 5.3%. The study found three contributing factors for this:

- economic activity: the increase in energy consumption as a result of GDP growth in the region;

- the structural effect — that is, the influence that an individual country’s economic activities have on the region as a whole;

- intensity — considers the influence that changes in the energy intensity of EAEU member states have on energy consumption in individual states and on the region as a whole.

 

The growth of economic activity in 2000-2017 had the greatest influence at the regional level, contributing to a 67% increase in energy consumption. Energy intensity had the second greatest influence at 32%. The structural effect accounted for the rest.

The structural factor played a minor role because the entire region is largely under the clear and ongoing influence of one country — Russia.

On the other hand, the structural component has a positive value in all EAEU member states except Russia. ‘It follows from this that, compared to Russia, the relative economic weight of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan has increased and was responsible for the increase in energy consumption’, the researchers said.

 

The increase in energy intensity is explained by the rise in energy consumption in Kazakhstan and the 38% increase in Russia. Rich in fossil fuels, these countries have fewer incentives to increase the energy efficiency of their economies.

The reverse process is occurring in Armenia and Belarus, where intensity is decreasing, probably due to a decline in fossil fuel consumption and a more dynamic development of ‘green’ energy. Kyrgyzstan is following a path typical of developing countries by focusing on economic growth at the expense of wise energy use.

At the level of the EAEU, energy intensity significantly drove the growth of electricity consumption in 2006-2011. After that, the positive and negative influence alternated depending on the situation in Russia: as the latter consumed significantly more energy, it affected the entire region adversely.

The economic activity (GDP growth) component positively influenced energy consumption, except during the years 2008-2009 and 2014-2015. ‘During these periods’, the researchers explained, ‘several countries, including Russia, saw GDP decline, which reduced energy consumption’.

‘In the EAEU states, GDP and energy consumption are interrelated, which is consistent with the literature on developing countries’, they concluded. However, ensuring energy sustainability in the region requires something completely different.

It is necessary to decouple energy consumption from economic growth, in part by increasing the share of renewable energy.

In addition to GDP, the degree of energy inequality can depend on other factors such as population size, income distribution, the standard of living, etc. Researchers used the Theil index to determine their significance and found that this indicator continuously declined and remained low from 2008 onward.

They also used the index to ‘decompose’ factors between and within two groups of countries — the energy-rich and energy-poor. At first, until 2008, most inequalities resulted from differences between the two groups. ‘The rich could benefit from their dominant position in international energy markets, and this explains the higher level of inequality compared to the poor, that took some time to reach a comparable level’, the researchers noted.

 

Then, the situation changed. ‘In 2008-2017, inequality declined and the contribution within the groups prevailed: economic growth levelled the standard of living in the region by reducing the difference between countries’.

 

How Is this Useful?

 

The results of this work help not only assess energy inequality — which, because it examined the EAEU for the first time, is valuable in itself — but also to determine actions that can reduce this inequality. At the level of the Eurasian Economic Union, this primarily requires the cooperation of all the member countries.

The researchers have shown that the states should expand their cooperation to include such areas as, for example, energy efficiency and alternative energy. The necessary conditions for this exist, but approaches to energy policy would have to change, ranging from amendments to the EAEU Treaty to stimulating joint scientific research.

Combined efforts are also needed to break the established link between economic growth and energy consumption. ‘Decoupling GDP growth from energy consumption is not an easy task and might seem impossible given the necessity of ensuring energy access to everyone’ the authors of the study said. One of the most likely solutions is for ‘EAEU members to share the burden, making it possible to achieve economies of scale, specialisation and the hedging of risk’.

The creation of common energy markets is a step in this direction. The process is underway, but it involves fossil fuel markets, which are inconsistent with Goal 7 targets calling for a transition to ‘green’ energy. However, the researchers are certain that these integration goals can be adjusted if the political will exists.