The link between transit use and early Covid cases

New study looks at the association of America’s mass transportation usage and case counts in opening months of the pandemic

Peer-Reviewed Publication

GEORGIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

 

IMAGE: GEORGIA TECH CO-AUTHORS MICHAEL THOMAS, JOHN TAYLOR, AND NEDA MOHAMMADI view more 

CREDIT: GEORGIA TECH

Researchers from Georgia Tech’s Colleges of Engineering and Computing have completed the first published study on the link between America’s mass transit use and Covid-19 cases at the beginning of the pandemic.

Using data from the Federal Highway Administration’s National Household Travel Survey, the team looked at the nation’s 52 largest metropolitan areas and each community’s likelihood of riding buses and trains. They then compared the numbers with the 838,000 confirmed Covid cases on the Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering's dashboard from Jan. 22 – May 1, 2020.

The timeframe covers the initial days, weeks, and months of the pandemic, before mask mandates were in place and prior to widespread social distancing. Ventilation on public transit had yet to be addressed, along with other public health measures that have since become the norm.

The study found that cities with high-usage public transportation systems displayed higher per capita Covid incidence. This was true when other factors, such as education, poverty levels, and household crowding, were accounted for. The association continued to be statistically significant even when the model was run without data from transit-friendly New York City.

The paper, “Investigating the association between mass transit adoption and COVID-19 infections in US metropolitan areas,” is published in the journal Science of the Total Environment. While the researchers don’t suggest that transit is the sole cause of the high incidence rates, they say it could have been an important factor early in the pandemic.

“This is what we expected, but we wanted to run the models to know for sure. Policymakers shouldn’t make decisions based on what they assume to be true,” said Michael Thomas, one of the study’s co-authors and a Ph.D. student in Georgia Tech’s School of Computational Science and Engineering. “This study is similar to dusting off a dinosaur dig site and finding a leg bone. This isn’t the entire dinosaur. There are many ways of making the argument about Covid spread, and transit is just part of it.”

The team got the idea of tracking transit and Covid cases after watching early reports from Wuhan, China, and reflecting on how differences in public transportation systems may factor into pandemic spread patterns. As assumptions were being made about how American cities should react based on ridership patterns on the other side of the globe, Professor John Taylor thought the pandemic shouldn’t be treated as a “one size fits all” situation.

“In the initial months of the pandemic, models were being developed here at home based on incidence rates in Wuhan. But, in terms of mass transit ridership behavior, China’s may be far different than what we see in American cities,” said Taylor, Frederick Law Olmsted Professor and associate chair for graduate programs and research innovation in the School of Civil and Environmental Engineering. “For instance, people in Chinese urban areas often stand in long, single file lines as they wait for trains and buses. We don’t. Different spread patterns can develop because of differences in mass transit behaviors.”

Taylor’s primary research focuses on the dynamics that can occur at the intersection of human and engineered networks, such as how people change electricity consumption behaviors and changing mobility patterns in natural disasters. Pandemics were on his research radar before Covid became a household name, as Taylor wanted to create better models to forecast the spread of illnesses. His first research effort in this direction was tracking the Ebola virus that reached Texas in 2014.

In the fall of 2019, Thomas was working as a biostatistician at the Georgia Department of Public Health when he spoke with Taylor about pursuing his Ph.D. Thomas submitted his application to Georgia Tech that November — just four months before Covid shut down America.

The two, along with study co-author and senior research engineer Neda Mohammadi, are now creating models to predict the spread of future illnesses among populations. They’re also looking to demonstrate how researchers can modify those models for better accuracy.

“If engineers and scientists can better understand the factors of community spread, policymakers can make faster, more accurate decisions to protect public health,” said Thomas. “In transportation, for example, it could lead to quicker decisions to restrict the number of people on buses. Or policies to stagger vehicle departure times more consistently. Studies like ours provide a basis for those decisions.”

Having more accurate models also takes varying human behavior into account, according to the researchers. Just as people in Wuhan wait for public transportation differently than those here in America, cities can differ from each other.

“Your pandemic is different than your neighbor’s,” said Mohammadi. “Pandemic spread isn’t the same from city to city, nor is ridership. Decision makers often look to other communities to see how they’re responding to shape their actions. That’s not always accurate. Models need to be customizable because populations don’t react uniformly. It’s our goal to improve decision making to be easier, faster, and more accurate for the next pandemic.”

CITATION: Thomas, M., Mohammadi, N., Taylor, J. Investigating the association between mass transit adoption and COVID-19 infections in US metropolitan areas. Science of the Total Environment Vol 811, 152284 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152284

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant No. 1837021. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the NSF.

 

About Georgia Institute of Technology

The Georgia Institute of Technology, or Georgia Tech, is a top 10 public research university developing leaders who advance technology and improve the human condition. The Institute offers business, computing, design, engineering, liberal arts, and sciences degrees. Its nearly 40,000 students representing 50 states and 149 countries, study at the main campus in Atlanta, at campuses in France and China, and through distance and online learning. As a leading technological university, Georgia Tech is an engine of economic development for Georgia, the Southeast, and the nation, conducting more than $1 billion in research annually for government, industry, and society.

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JOURNAL

Science of The Total Environment

DOI

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152284 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Investigating the association between mass transit adoption and COVID-19 infections in US metropolitan areas

Laser trailblazer: US Navy conducts historic test of new laser weapon system

Business Announcement

OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH

 

IMAGE: THE LAYERED LASER DEFENSE WEAPON SHOOTS DOWN A DRONE DURING A FEBRUARY DEMONSTRATION AT THE U.S. ARMY’S HIGH ENERGY LASER SYSTEMS TEST FACILITY AT WHITE SANDS MISSILE RANGE IN NEW MEXICO. THE ONR-SPONSORED DEMONSTRATION MARKED THE FIRST TIME THE U.S. NAVY USED AN ALL-ELECTRIC, HIGH-ENERGY LASER WEAPON TO DEFEAT A TARGET REPRESENTING A SUBSONIC CRUISE MISSILE IN FLIGHT. view more 

CREDIT: (PHOTO COURTESY OF LOCKHEED MARTIN)

ARLINGTON, Va.—The ground-based laser system homed in on the red drone flying by, shooting a high-energy beam invisible to the naked eye. Suddenly, a fiery orange glow flared on the drone, smoke poured from its engine and a parachute opened as the craft tumbled downward, disabled by the laser beam.

The February demonstration marked the first time the U.S. Navy used an all-electric, high-energy laser weapon to defeat a target representing a subsonic cruise missile in flight.

Known as the Layered Laser Defense (LLD), the weapon was designed and built by Lockheed Martin to serve as a multi-domain, multi-platform demonstration system. It can counter unmanned aerial systems and fast-attack boats with a high-power laser—and also use its high-resolution telescope to track in-bound air threats, support combat identification and conduct battle damage assessment of engaged targets.

The drone shoot-down by the LLD was part of a recent test sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) at the U.S. Army’s High Energy Laser Systems Test Facility at White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. The demonstration was a partnership between ONR, the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Research and Engineering) and Lockheed Martin.  

“Innovative laser systems like the LLD have the potential to redefine the future of naval combat operations,” said Chief of Naval Research Rear Adm. Lorin C. Selby. “They present transformational capabilities to the fleet, address diverse threats, and provide precision engagements with a deep magazine to complement existing defensive systems and enhance sustained lethality in high-intensity conflict.”

The LLD testing supports a broader effort by the naval research and development community, partnered closely with the fleet, to mature technologies and field a family of laser weapons that can address multiple threats using a range of escalating options. These capabilities range from non-lethal measures, such as optical “dazzling” and disabling of sensors, to destruction of a target.

Laser weapons provide new precision and speed of engagement for naval warfighters. They also offer simplified logistics that are safer for ships and their crews, as lasers are not dependent on the traditional propellants or gunpowder-based ordnance found on ships.  

Instead, modern high-power lasers run on electricity, making them inherently safer and able to provide weapon capability as long as a ship has power. This also means the cost per engagement for a laser weapon can be very low, since the only consumable item expended is fuel to run the system.

For years, the Department of Defense (DoD) and all the Services have recognized the promise of directed-energy weapons such as lasers, and continue to prioritize research. Recently, the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, the Hon. Heidi Shyu, re-affirmed that directed energy is one of the DoD’s critical technology areas.

ONR plays an important role in developing technologies for laser weapons and has fielded demonstration systems for operational experimentation. Notably, in 2014 ONR saw the Laser Weapon System tested successfully aboard the USS Ponce in the Persian Gulf. More recently, ONR fielded the Laser Weapon System Demonstrator aboard the USS Portland in 2021.

Although there’s no plan to field the LLD, it offers a glimpse into the future of laser weapons. It is compact and powerful, yet more efficient than previous systems. It has specialized optics to observe a target and focus laser beams to maximum effect, while also incorporating artificial intelligence to improve tracking and targeting.

“LLD is an example of what a very advanced laser system can do to defeat significant threats to naval forces,” said David Kiel, a former Navy captain who is a program officer in ONR’s Aviation, Force Projection and Integrated Defense Department, which managed the testing. “And we have ongoing efforts, both at ONR and in other Navy programs, to keep building on these results in the near future.”

During the recent test at White Sands, the LLD tracked or shot down an array of targets—including unmanned fixed-wing aerial vehicles, quadcopters and high-speed drones representative of subsonic cruise missiles.

“We’re proud to say that the Layered Laser Defense system defeated a surrogate cruise missile threat in partnership with the Navy, White Sands Missile Range and Army High Energy Laser Systems Test Facility teams. Lockheed Martin drew best-in-class laser weapon subsystems from across the corporation, including key industry partner Rolls-Royce, to support the entire threat engagement timeline from target detection to defeat,” said Rick Cordaro, vice president, Lockheed Martin Advanced Product Solutions. “We leveraged more than 40 years of directed energy experience to create new capabilities that support the 21st century warfighter.”

Dr. Frank Peterkin, ONR’s directed energy portfolio manager, said, “The Navy performed similar tests during the 1980s but with chemical-based laser technologies that presented significant logistics barriers for fielding in an operational environment. And, ultimately, those types of lasers did not transition to the fleet or any other Service.

“Today, ONR coordinates closely with the Navy’s resourcing and acquisition communities to make sure we develop laser weapon technologies that make sense for the Navy’s requirements to defend the fleet and for operations in the rough maritime environment at sea,” Peterkin continued. “It’s a challenging problem, but Navy leadership at all levels see potential for laser weapons to really make a difference. The next few years are going to be very exciting as we work with the Navy and joint partners to make the capability we just saw demonstrated by the LLD a reality for the naval warfighter.”

 FOR PROFIT HEALTHCARE

Food insecurity doubled likelihood of foregoing or delaying medical care during first year of COVID-19 pandemic in U.S.

Survey conducted in December 2020 also found minorities and low-income individuals were at elevated risk of food insecurity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY BLOOMBERG SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH

Individuals experiencing food insecurity—a household’s lack of consistent access to adequate food resources—in the U.S. during the first year of the pandemic were more than twice as likely to forego or delay medical care due to cost concerns compared to food-secure households, according to a survey led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

Conducted in December 2020, the survey also found that racial and ethnic minority groups and lower-income individuals were significantly more likely to face food insecurity compared to whites and higher-income individuals.

The findings were published online April 13 in the American Journal of Public Health.

For their study, the researchers conducted a nationally representative online survey of 8,481 adults aged 18 and older between December 15 and December 21, 2020. The researchers found that nearly one in five adults—18.8 percent—reported experiencing food insecurity at some point during the previous 30 days. Of those experiencing food insecurity, nearly 3 in 10 (27.4 percent) reported delaying or foregoing medical care in the last month.

In addition to delaying any medical care during the prior month, individuals with food insecurity were also two to three times more likely to have delayed or foregone specific types of care during the first nine months of the pandemic, including skipping a treatment or test recommended by a doctor, not going to a recommended follow-up visit, and not filling a prescription.

The link between food insecurity and foregoing medical treatment is well documented. This study is thought to be the first to investigate this relationship during the pandemic.

“We already know that people who struggle with maintaining a healthy diet are at higher risk of many health problems, including those that can make them more vulnerable to COVID-19,” says Jaclyn Bertoldo, MPH, RDN, the lead author of the study and a Bloomberg American Health Fellow and DrPH student at the Bloomberg School. “Delaying or postponing care could compound the risk of COVID-19 complications and contribute to widening health disparities in the pandemic and well after it ends.”  

The researchers also found that food insecurity disproportionately affected racial and ethnic minority groups and low-income people. Non-Hispanic Blacks were nearly two times as likely as whites to face food insecurity, and Hispanics more than one and a half times as likely as whites. People who had lost a job or more than half of their income due to the pandemic were three and a half times more likely to experience food insecurity.  

“Individuals experiencing food insecurity often make difficult tradeoffs between food and other basic needs, including health care,” says Julia Wolfson, PhD, co-lead author of the study and an assistant professor in the Department of International Health at the Bloomberg School. “Policies to help offset the cost of food, such as Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Benefits, or food stamps, are critical to provide food insecure households with needed money.”

The authors note that tying SNAP benefits to inflation and more frequently adjusting benefit levels is important to help low-income families afford the true cost of food. They also add that continuing to expand access to Medicaid and working toward more affordable health insurance and prescription drug prices can also help low-income families avoid needing to choose between health care and food.   

This survey was part of the National Pandemic Pulse project, a series of comprehensive surveys led by researchers at the Johns Hopkins University. Begun in September 2020, the series’ surveys measure disparities and inequities in the experience and impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Food insecurity and delayed or foregone medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic” was written by Jaclyn Bertoldo, Julia A. Wolfson, Samantha M. Sundermeir, Jeffrey Edwards, Dustin Gibson, Smisha Agarwal, and Alain Labrique.

The study was funded by the Johnson & Johnson Foundation through the National Pandemic Pulse project.

# # #

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JOURNAL

American Journal of Public Health

ARTICLE TITLE

Food insecurity and delayed or foregone medical care during the COVID-19 pandemic

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

13-Apr-2022

Investigating the connections between medicaid and cancer survival

University of Colorado Cancer Center Deputy Director Cathy Bradley, PhD, recently published two papers on Medicaid-related research

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO ANSCHUTZ MEDICAL CAMPUS

At first blush, the numbers aren’t great: Cancer patients who are covered by Medicaid tend to have later-stage disease and higher rates of mortality.

But when Cathy Bradley, PhD, deputy director of the University of Colorado (CU) Cancer Center, started digging into the data a little deeper, she found some of the reasons for the dire statistics. Many people with cancer enroll in Medicaid only after they are diagnosed, suggesting they may have been uninsured prior to diagnosis and had limited access to cancer screening and treatment.

“What some researchers have done in the past is looked at Medicaid and observed that people who are insured by Medicaid and diagnosed with cancer have late-stage disease and greater mortality rates,” she says. “What I was able to show is that Medicaid is actually picking up people who were otherwise uninsured or underinsured. They get diagnosed with cancer, and enroll in Medicaid afterward. By then, they have late-stage cancer because they most likely did not have health insurance that would have given them access to screening and treatment prior to cancer diagnosis.”

In recent research published in the journal Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention, Bradley also shows that cancer patients who were insured by Medicaid prior to diagnosis do about as well as people with private insurance.

“Ultimately, the message is that having continuous coverage in order to be able to get access to screening and care prevents late-stage disease and high mortality,” she says.

Insurance trumps income

Using data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Cancer Registry, linked with Medicaid enrollment data, Bradley looked at the association between Medicaid enrollment and distant stage for three screening-amenable cancers: breast, cervical, and colorectal. In addition to her general findings about the importance of continuous insurance coverage, she looked specifically at the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program, a Centers for Disease Control initiative that offers free breast and cervical cancer screening to uninsured or underinsured low-income women who were not low-income enough to qualify for Medicaid initially.

“If cancer is found, these women are enrolled in their state Medicaid program, but Medicaid may only cover their cancer-related treatment rather than full coverage,” Bradley says. “Providers may also be reimbursed at a lower rate than regular Medicaid. What I was able to show is the breast and cervical cancer screening program — which has saved thousands of lives — is inferior to having continuous insurance coverage. Because these women, even though they were slightly higher income, it wasn't the income that made a difference. It was the health insurance.”

Call for coverage

Not surprisingly, Bradley’s paper concludes with a call for more insurance options for those with lower incomes. The Affordable Care Act, which went into effect in 2014, expanded Medicaid eligibility, but many states opted not to expand, setting their income thresholds much lower than the federal guidelines allow.

“Medicaid has gotten an undeserved bad rap. I’m certain Medicaid would rather have patients prior to diagnosis or early stage and take care of them rather than spend a whole lot of money and have them die,” Bradley says. “Even though states that expanded Medicaid greatly reduced the number of uninsured people, there are still over 12 million uninsured people who do not qualify for Medicaid and still don’t have health insurance. And those are the ones most vulnerable to late-stage diagnosis.”

The HIV-cancer connection

An economist by training, Bradley has a longtime interest in insurance and Medicaid and how they affect those diagnosed with cancer. In “An ounce of prevention: Medicaid's role in reducing the burden of cancer in men with HIV,” a recent editorial in the journal Cancer, she explains how people living with HIV have a greater incident of some cancers. Thanks to new treatments, many of these people are expected to live long-term and will require treatment for cancer, she says, and because many of them are also insured by Medicaid, new approaches to public health practice and policy are needed.

“Cancer drugs can be super-expensive, and we've got to think about this complex care of providing for people with both conditions, when 20-30 years ago, you would have died from either of them,” she says. “Now both become chronic, and the cost of the drugs for both conditions is very expensive.”

To avoid these costs, she says, greater emphasis on prevention through HPV vaccination and screening is needed. Measures to control drug costs will also be needed as the population grows.

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JOURNAL

Cancer Epidemiology Biomarkers & Prevention

DOI

10.1158/1055-9965.EPI-21-1077 

New cancer information resources for people of Ukraine from NCCN

The National Comprehensive Cancer Network—a non-profit based in the United States—is providing free patient-tailored cancer treatment guides to help Ukrainians with cancer get the best possible care, available online at NCCN.org/Ukraine

Business Announcement

NATIONAL COMPREHENSIVE CANCER NETWORK

 

IMAGE: NCCN GUIDELINES FOR PATIENTS IN UKRAINIAN AVAILABLE AT NCCN.ORG/UKRAINE view more 

CREDIT: NCCN

PLYMOUTH MEETING, PA [April 14, 2022] — The National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN®)—an alliance of leading U.S. cancer centers—joins the global plea for peace in Ukraine and recognizes the profound impact to cancer care. As an organization whose mission is to improve cancer care globally, NCCN stands in solidarity with the Ukrainian people. As part of that support, NCCN is providing free, Ukrainian-language cancer treatment information guides at NCCN.org/Ukraine.

“Our heart goes out to the people of Ukraine during this unjust invasion and humanitarian crisis,” said Robert W. Carlson, MD, Chief Executive Officer, NCCN. “War not only threatens people’s immediate safety, it also makes it much harder to provide necessary health care, including essential cancer care. We hope these Ukrainian-language treatment guides can offer some help to patients, their caregivers, and their providers during this difficult time.”

The NCCN resources include 14 newly-translated NCCN Guidelines for Patients® featuring patient-friendly, evidence-based, expert information on the following 8 topics in cancer care:

• Breast Cancer (ductal carcinoma in situ/DCIS, invasive, and metastatic)
• Cervical Cancer
• Colon Cancer
• Distress Management
• Head & Neck Cancers (nasopharyngeal, oral, and oropharyngeal)
• Lung Cancer (early and metastatic)
• Lymphomas (diffuse large B-cell)
• Prostate Cancer (early and advanced)

The English-language versions of these patient guidelines are based on the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology (NCCN Guidelines®)—the recognized standard for clinical direction and policy in cancer care and the most thorough and frequently updated clinical practice guidelines available in any area of medicine. The patient versions are presented in an easy-to-read format via funding from the NCCN Foundation®, to help patients better understand their cancer care, especially when crossing geographic borders and receiving care in different settings.

“As hard as it is to endure an invasion, it can be even harder for people with cancer who have additional, urgent medical concerns,” said Nelya Melnitchouk, MD, Global Medical Knowledge Alliance (GMKA). “This Ukrainian-language information can help people with cancer and their health care providers understand where they are in their treatment journey and how to adapt their next steps in changing circumstances.”

“NCCN joins numerous organizations around the world that are answering the call to support Ukrainian cancer patients, their doctors, and their families,” said Mike Morrissey, Chief Executive, European Cancer Organisation (ECO). “We’ve gathered translated resources from many different medical and patient organizations in one place at onco-help.org, so the people who need this information can access it quickly and easily.”

NCCN’s resource site builds on longstanding work and ongoing partnerships worldwide to also provide adapted and stratified versions of cancer guidelines that can help health care providers identify treatment options to provide the best possible outcomes in resource-constrained or conflict settings, among other unique regional concerns.

NCCN pledges to continue supporting the people of Ukraine by continuously updating the information at NCCN.org/Ukraine and on the NCCN apps. More resources are coming soon.

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About the National Comprehensive Cancer Network

The National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN®) is a not-for-profit alliance of leading cancer centers devoted to patient care, research, and education. NCCN is dedicated to improving and facilitating quality, effective, equitable, and accessible cancer care so all patients can live better lives. Visit NCCN.org for more information on the NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology (NCCN Guidelines®) and other initiatives. Follow NCCN on Facebook @NCCNorg, Instagram @NCCNorg and Twitter @NCCN.

About the NCCN Foundation

The NCCN Foundation® was founded by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network® (NCCN®) to empower people with cancer and advance oncology innovation. The NCCN Foundation empowers people with cancer and their caregivers by delivering unbiased expert guidance from the world’s leading cancer experts through the library of NCCN Guidelines for Patients® and other patient education resources. The NCCN Foundation is also committed to advancing cancer treatment by funding the nation’s promising young investigators at the forefront of cancer research. For more information about the NCCN Foundation, visit NCCN.org/foundation.

Lies that 'might' eventually come true seem less unethical

People could be willing to forgive, spread misinformation they think might become true in the future, study says

Peer-Reviewed Publication

AMERICAN PSYCHOLOGICAL ASSOCIATION

People may be willing to condone statements they know to be false and even spread misinformation on social media if they believe those statements could become true in the future, according to research published by the American Psychological Association.

Whether the situation involves a politician making a controversial statement, a business stretching the truth in an advertisement or a job seeker lying about their professional skills on a resume, people who consider how a lie might become true subsequently think it is less unethical to tell because they judge the lie’s broader message (or “gist”) as truer. The study was published in APA’s Journal of Personality and Social Psychology.

“The rise in misinformation is a pressing societal problem, stoking political polarization and eroding trust in business and politics. Misinformation in part persists because some people believe it. But that’s only part of the story,” said lead author Beth Anne Helgason, a doctoral student at the London Business School. “Misinformation also persists because sometimes people know it is false but are still willing to excuse it.”

This study was sparked by cases in which leaders in business and politics have used claims that “it might become true in the future” to justify statements that are verifiably false in the present.

To explore why people might be willing to condone this misinformation, researchers conducted six experiments involving more than 3,600 participants. The researchers showed participants in each study a variety of statements, clearly identified as false, and then asked some participants to reflect on predictions about how the statements might become true in the future.

In one experiment, researchers asked 447 MBA students from 59 different countries who were taking a course at a UK business school to imagine that a friend lied on their resume, for example by listing financial modeling as a skill despite having no prior experience. The researchers then asked some participants to consider the possibility of the lie becoming true (e.g., “Consider that if the same friend enrolls in a financial modeling course that the school offers in the summer, then he could develop experience with financial modeling”). They found that students thought it was less unethical for a friend to lie when they imagined whether their friend might develop this skill in the future.

In another experiment, 599 American participants viewed six markedly false political statements designed to appeal to either conservatives or liberals, including, “Millions of people voted illegally in the last presidential election” and, “The average top CEO makes 500 times more than the average worker.” Each statement was clearly labelled as false by reputable, non-partisan fact-checkers. Participants were then asked to generate their own predictions about how each statement might become true in the future. For instance, they were told that “It’s a proven fact that the average top CEO currently makes 265 times more money than the average American worker,” then asked to respond to the open-ended prompt, “The average top CEO will soon make 500 times more money than the average American worker if …”

The researchers found that participants on both sides of the political aisle who imagined how false statements could eventually become true were less likely to rate the statement as unethical than those who did not because they were more likely to believe its broader meaning was true. This was especially the case when the false statement fit with their political views. Importantly, participants knew these statements were false, yet imagining how they might become true made people find them more excusable.

Even prompting the participants to think carefully before judging the falsehoods did not change how ethical the participants found the statements, said study co-author Daniel Effron, PhD, a professor of organizational behavior at the London Business School.

“Our findings are concerning, particularly given that we find that encouraging people to think carefully about the ethicality of statements was insufficient to reduce the effects of imagining a future where it might be true,” Effron said. “This highlights the negative consequences of giving airtime to leaders in business and politics who spout falsehoods.”

The researchers also found that participants were more inclined to share misinformation on social media when they imagined how it might become true, but only if it aligned with their political views. This suggests that when misinformation supports one’s politics, people may be willing to spread it because they believe the statement to be essentially, if not literally, true, according to Helgason.

“Our findings reveal how our capacity for imagination affects political disagreement and our willingness to excuse misinformation,” Helgason said. “Unlike claims about what is true, propositions about what might become true are impossible to fact-check. Thus, partisans who are certain that a lie will become true eventually may be difficult to convince otherwise.”

Article: “It Might Become True: How Prefactual Thinking Licenses Dishonesty,” by Beth Anne Helgason and Daniel Effron, PhD, London Business School. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, published online April 14, 2022.

Contact: Beth Anne Helgason may be contacted at bhelgason@london.edu.

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JOURNAL

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

It Might Become True: How Prefactual Thinking Licenses Dishonesty

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

14-Apr-2022

Bank of Canada and Multiverse Computing complete preliminary quantum simulation of cryptocurrency market

Business Announcement

HKA MARKETING COMMUNICATIONS

 

IMAGE: BANK OF CANADA AND MULTIVERSE COMPUTING COMPLETE PRELIMINARY QUANTUM SIMULATION OF CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET view more 

CREDIT: BANK OF CANADA

Toronto, Canada – April 14, 2022 – Multiverse Computing, a global leader in quantum computing solutions for the financial industry and beyond with offices in Toronto and Spain, today announced it has completed a proof-of-concept project with the Bank of Canada through which the parties used quantum computing to simulate the adoption of cryptocurrency as a method of payment by non-financial firms.

“We are proud to be a trusted partner of the first G7 central bank to explore modelling of complex networks and cryptocurrencies through the use of quantum computing,” said Sam Mugel, CTO at Multiverse Computing. “The results of the simulation are very intriguing and insightful as stakeholders consider further research in the domain. Thanks to the algorithm we developed together with our partners at the Bank of Canada, we have been able to model a complex system reliably and accurately given the current state of quantum computing capabilities.”

Companies may adopt various forms of payments. So, it’s important to develop a deep understanding of interactions that can take place in payments networks.

Multiverse Computing conducted its innovative work related to applying quantum computing for modelling complex economic interactions in a research project with the Bank of Canada. The project explored quantum computing technology as a way to simulate complex economic behaviour that is otherwise very difficult to simulate using traditional computational techniques.

By implementing this solution using D-Wave’s annealing quantum computer, the simulation was able to tackle financial networks as large as 8-10 players, with up to 2^90 possible network configurations. Note that classical computing approaches cannot solve large networks of practical relevance as a 15-player network requires as many resources as there are atoms in the universe.

“We wanted to test the power of quantum computing on a research case that is hard to solve using classical computing techniques,” said Maryam Haghighi, Director, Data Science at the Bank of Canada. “This collaboration helped us learn more about how quantum computing can provide new insights into economic problems by carrying out complex simulations on quantum hardware.”

Motivated by the empirical observations about the cooperative nature of adoption of cryptocurrency payments, this theoretical study found that for some industries, these digital assets would share the payments market with traditional bank transfers and cash-like instruments. The market share for each would depend on how the financial institutions respond to the cryptocurrency adoptions, and on the economic costs associated with such trades.

The quantum simulations helped generate examples that illustrate how similar firms may end up adopting different levels of cryptocurrency use.

About Multiverse Computing

Multiverse Computing is a leading quantum software company that applies quantum and quantum-inspired solutions to tackle complex problems in finance to deliver value today and enable a more resilient and prosperous economy. The company’s expertise in quantum control and computational methods as well as finance means it can secure maximum results from current quantum devices. Its flagship product, Singularity, allows financial professionals to leverage quantum computing with common software tools.  The company is targeting additional verticals as well, including mobility, energy, the life sciences and industry 4.0.

Contacts:

Multiverse Computing
www.multiversecomputing.com

A pre-Easter surprise: massive recall of chocolate products due to outbreak of monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium in 10 European countries

Rapid communication in Eurosurveillance describes epidemiological investigations and measures taken

Peer-Reviewed Publication

EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR DISEASE PREVENTION AND CONTROL (ECDC)

An outbreak of monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium in 10 European countries with 150 reported cases, predominantly affecting young children, has been linked to chocolate products produced by a large multinational company. Since the identification of the first cases in the United Kingdom (UK) in February 2022, one of the most extensive withdrawals of chocolate products in European commercial history has taken place. Given the approach of Easter, the widespread product distribution, and the vulnerability of the affected population, early and effective real-time sharing of microbiological and epidemiological information has been of critical importance in managing this serious food-borne incident.

In a rapid communication published in Eurosurveillance, Larkin et al. [1] describe the epidemiological investigations and coordination of measures across countries. In February 2022, a small five-single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) single linkage cluster of eight cases of infection with monophasic Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serotype Typhimurium (1,4,5,12:i:-) eBG 1, sequence type (ST) 34 was identified in the UK. The cluster was unusual, with all but one reported case younger than 10 years, and the strain demonstrated genotypic markers of an unusual antimicrobial resistance pattern not commonly seen in livestock, food, or human disease cases in the UK. The cluster was not closely related to any other UK strains of monophasic S. Typhimurium.

Exploratory interviews using an open-ended, anthropological approach (not binary yes/no questions) were undertaken for hypothesis generation, after which a targeted questionnaire was used to refine hypotheses identified through the exploratory interviews, confirming a strong signal for a specific brand of chocolate products.

Following the UK’s notification on the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) EpiPulse Food and Waterborne Diseases (FWD) platform on 17 February 2022, and an Early Warning and Response System (EWRS) alert on 25 March, Germany, Sweden, France, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, Norway, Ireland, Belgium, and Spain reported confirmed or probable cases in their respective countries. By 8 April 2022, a total of 150 confirmed and probable cases had been identified, with case sampling dates ranging from 21 December 2021 (the first UK case) to 28 March 2022. Descriptive epidemiological investigations demonstrated cases to be predominately in young children. The hospitalisation rate was 42% of cases for whom information was available, higher than that usually reported in salmonellosis outbreaks and for individual cases of infection with S. Typhimurium. While this is probably also influenced by the demographic characteristics of those affected, this is a possible indicator of increased clinical severity of infection in this outbreak.

Food chain investigations in the affected countries indicated that most products implicated in the epidemiological investigations were predominantly produced at a single production site in Belgium. This was the same facility from which the outbreak strain had been identified in December 2021 in the processing equipment for the buttermilk ingredient.

Based on the strong descriptive epidemiological evidence implicating these products in this outbreak, on the identified food chain links and on evidence of contamination previously identified at production, risk management actions were taken in all affected countries, including withdrawal of all product lines produced in the identified production facility and extensive product recalls, supported by news alerts and advice for consumers, starting with the first recall on 2 April in the UK and Ireland and extended to other countries shortly after. Extended recalls were also carried out from 7 April as the investigations in several countries progressed, resulting in further evidence to support these recalls. On 8 April, Belgian authorities stopped production at the facility in Belgium, and the WHO/FAO International Food Safety Authorities Network (INFOSAN) also issued a global alert on 10 April notifying 77 countries and territories to which distribution of the implicated products had been established to initiate a global recall.

Multidrug resistant profile

A striking aspect of the outbreak was the multidrug resistance profile of the outbreak strain, specifically resistance to kanamycin and gentamicin, and the presence of lnu(F), a determinant of resistance to lincosamides, which are relatively rare for monophasic S. Typhimurium in Europe. The outbreak strain is susceptible to fluoroquinolones, azithromycin and third-generation cephalosporins, which provide effective treatment options for cases of bloodstream infection, but the unusual AMR profile provided an additional characteristic of the outbreak strain that could be assessed by all countries in the early stages of investigation for case ascertainment and possible hypothesis generation. This emphasises the usefulness of including more uncommon AMR profiles in early international communications and subsequent incorporation as part of the international outbreak case definitions, where this facilitates identification of possible or probable cases before the application of WGS and/or epidemiological investigations to confirm outbreak cases.

Early notification of the detection of the outbreak and the preliminary findings of the UK investigation followed by rapid multi-country collaboration in information-sharing was essential to the rapid progress of the outbreak investigations. The descriptive epidemiological information provided strong evidence implicating the vehicle of infection, especially when amalgamated at an international level, enabling public health and food safety authorities to undertake the necessary controls swiftly. The subsequent information about the detection of the outbreak strain in the implicated processing facility in December 2021, provided further microbiological confirmation of the link between the company’s products and the Europe-wide outbreak.

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JOURNAL

Eurosurveillance

DOI

10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2022.27.15.2200314 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Observational study

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Investigation of an international outbreak of multidrug-resistant monophasic Salmonella Typhimurium associated with chocolate products, EU/EEA and United Kingdom, February to April 2022

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

14-Apr-2022

New approach can predict pollution from cooking emissions

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF BIRMINGHAM

Organic aerosols – such as those released in cooking – may stay in the atmosphere for several days, because of nanostructures formed by fatty acids as they are released into the air.

By identifying the processes which control how these aerosols are transformed in the atmosphere, scientists will be able to better understand and predict their impact on the environment and the climate.

Experts at the Universities of Birmingham and Bath have used instruments at the Diamond Light Source and the Central Laser Facility, both based at the Harwell Campus in Oxford, to probe the behaviour of thin films of oleic acid – an unsaturated fatty acid commonly released when cooking.

In the study, published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, they were able to analyse the particular molecular properties that control how rapidly aerosol emissions can be broken down in the atmosphere.

Then, using a theoretical model combined with experimental data the team was able to predict the amount of time aerosols generated from cooking may hang around in the environment.

These types of aerosols have long been associated with poor air quality in urban areas, but their impact on human-made climate change is hard to gauge. That’s because of the diverse range of molecules found within aerosols, and their varying interactions with the environment.

By identifying the nanostructure of molecules emitted during cooking that slows down the break-up of organic aerosols, it becomes possible to model how they are transported and dispersed into the atmosphere.

Lead author Dr Christian Pfrang, of the University of Birmingham’s School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, said: “Cooking aerosols account for up to 10 per cent of particulate matter (PM) emissions in the UK. Finding accurate ways to predict their behaviour will give us much more precise ways to also assess their contribution to climate change.”

Co-author Dr Adam Squires, of the University of Bath, said: “We’re increasingly finding out how molecules like these fatty acids from cooking can organise themselves into bilayers and other regular shapes and stacks within aerosol droplets that float in the air, and how this completely changes how fast they degrade, how long they persist in the atmosphere, and how they affect pollution and weather.” 

The research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council and the data was produced and analysed using the University of Birmingham’s BlueBEAR high performance and high throughput computing service. BlueBEAR employs some of the latest technology to deliver fast and efficient processing capacity for researchers while minimizing energy consumption by using direct, on-chip, water cooling.

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JOURNAL

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

DOI

10.5194/acp-22-4895-2022 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

The impact of molecular self-organisation on the atmospheric fate of a cooking aerosol proxy

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

13-Apr-2022

Paleobiology: Rare beetle larva in amber

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LUDWIG-MAXIMILIANS-UNIVERSITÄT MÜNCHEN

LMU zoologists have found the first ever riffle beetle larva in Baltic amber.

Amber is a treasure trove of information from the Earth’s past, as it can preserve trapped plants and animals down to the smallest detail. The fossilized tree resin is an outstanding source for fossils of soft-bodied creatures such as insect larvae, which are less frequently preserved in sedimentary deposits (stony fossils). Most of the amber in Europe comes from the Baltic amber forest, which covered large areas of today’s northern Europe 33-38 million years ago. Scientists led by LMU zoologist Joachim Haug have now discovered the first ever riffle beetle larva in Baltic amber. Although riffle beetles (Elmidae) seem to play an important role in modern freshwater ecosystems, there is scant fossil evidence for this group, and what evidence there is comes from adult specimens. Using microtomography and synchrotron radiation analyses, the scientists also managed to reveal details of the larva that were obscured by inclusions and turbidity in the amber. These showed that the larva possesses unusually large rows of triangular plates on the upper part of its body. The larva’s presence in Baltic amber points to the existence of oxygen-rich rivers in the Baltic amber forest, as the larvae of click beetles mostly live in such habitats.

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JOURNAL

PeerJ

DOI

10.7717/peerj.13025 

ARTICLE TITLE

The first fossil immature of Elmidae: an unusual riffle beetle larva preserved in Baltic amber