Fears of a Second War in Europe as Azerbaijan Launches Military Attack

Allison Quinn
Tue, September 19, 2023 

Reuters


Azerbaijan carried out strikes on the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday as it announced the launch of an “anti-terror” operation, a move that threatens to trigger another war in the region.

The country’s Defense Ministry said it was using “high-precision weapons” to “incapacitate” Armenian-backed forces and target Armenian military positions in a push to force out “formations of Armenia’s armed forces.”

Footage purportedly filmed in Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, which is called Khankendi by Azerbaijan, captured the sounds of loud shelling and artillery fire.

The Gravedigger Who Fears Digging His Own Son’s Grave in Nagorno-Karabakh

“At this moment, the capital Stepanakert and other cities and villages are under intensive fire,” an Armenia-based separatist group warned on social media, calling it a “large-scale military offensive.”

Officials in Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, said civilians were free to leave the area via humanitarian corridors and insisted that “the civilian population and civilian infrastructure are not targets.”

Azerbaijan and Armenia have feuded for decades over Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population.

Attack Drones Dominating Tanks as Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict Showcases the Future of War

A bloody 2020 war between the two former Soviet rivals ended with Azerbaijan recapturing land of historical significance to Armenians. A Russian-brokered ceasefire deal to end that war did little to ease tensions in the region, with the two sides continuing to hurl allegations and periodic reports of shelling.

Armenia has said it does not have any armed forces in Karabakh, and on Tuesday said the “situation on the borders of the Republic of #Armenia is relatively stable.”

Azerbaijan launches military action in Karabakh 'to disarm' Armenians
Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 



Gunfire and explosions heard in Stepanakert, Nagorno-Karabakh

BAKU (Reuters) -Azerbaijan launched military action in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a step that could presage a new war in the volatile area but which Baku said was necessary to restore constitutional order and drive out Armenian military formations.

Karabakh is internationally recognised as Azerbaijani territory but part of it is run by breakaway ethnic Armenian authorities who say the area is their ancestral homeland. It has been at the centre of two wars - the latest in 2020 - since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.

It was not clear whether Baku's actions would trigger a full-scale conflict dragging in neighbouring Armenia or be a more limited military operation. But there were already signs of political fallout in Yerevan where Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan spoke of calls for a coup against him.

The fighting could alter the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus region, which is crisscrossed with oil and gas pipelines, and where Russia - distracted by its own war in Ukraine - is seeking to preserve its influence in the face of greater interest from Turkey, which backs Azerbaijan.

Loud and repeated shelling was audible from social media footage filmed in Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh, called Khankendi by Azerbaijan, on Tuesday.

The Karabakh separatist human rights ombudsman, Gegham Stepanyan, said that two civilians had been killed and 11 people injured as a result of strikes by Azerbaijan's military. Reuters could not immediately verify his assertion.

In a statement announcing its operation, Azerbaijan's defence ministry spoke of its intention to "disarm and secure the withdrawal of formations of Armenia’s armed forces from our territories, (and) neutralise their military infrastructure".

It said it was only targeting legitimate military targets using "high-precision weapons" and not civilians as part of what it called a drive to "restore the constitutional order of the Republic of Azerbaijan".

Civilians were free to leave by humanitarian corridors, it added, including one to Armenia, whose prime minister, Pashinyan, said the offer looked like another attempt by Baku to get ethnic Armenians to leave Karabakh as part of a campaign of what he called "ethnic cleansing", an accusation Baku denies.

Ethnic Armenian forces in Karabakh said Azerbaijani forces were trying to break through their defences after heavy shelling, but that they were holding the line for now.

Armenia, which had been holding peace talks with Azerbaijan, including on questions about Karabakh's future, condemned what it called Baku's "full-scale aggression" against the people of Nagorno-Karabakh and accused Azerbaijan of shelling towns and villages.

"Driven by a sense of impunity, Azerbaijan has openly claimed responsibility for the aggression," Armenia's foreign ministry said in a statement.

Reuters could not immediately verify battlefield assertions from either side.

APPEAL FOR HELP

Armenia, which says its armed forces are not in Karabakh and that the situation on its own border with Azerbaijan is stable, called on members of the U.N. Security Council to help and for Russian peacekeepers on the ground to intervene.

Russia, which brokered a fragile ceasefire after the war in 2020 which saw Azerbaijan recapture swathes of land in and around Karabakh that it had lost in an earlier conflict in the 1990s, called for all sides to stop fighting.

Russia is in touch with both Azerbaijan and Armenia and has urged negotiations to resolve the Karabakh conflict, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Tuesday, adding that Moscow considered ensuring civilian safety the most important issue.

Armenia has accused Moscow of being too distracted by its own war in Ukraine to protect its own security and has accused Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh of failing to do their job.

Speaking inside Karabakh with artillery rumbling in the background, Ruben Vardanyan, a banker who was a top official in Karabakh's ethnic Armenian administration until February, appealed for Armenia to recognise Karabakh's self-declared independence from Azerbaijan.

He also called on the international community to impose sanctions on Baku.

"A really serious situation has unfolded here," Vardanyan said on Telegram. "Azerbaijan has started a full-scale military operation against 120,000 inhabitants, of which 30,000 are children, pregnant women and old people," he said.

The Armenian government held a security council meeting to discuss the situation as people gathered in the government district in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, to demand the authorities take action.

Baku announced its operation after complaining that six of its citizens had been killed by land mines in two separate incidents, something it blamed on "illegal Armenian armed groups." Armenia said the claims were false.

The escalation occurred a day after badly needed food and medicine was delivered to Karabakh along two roads simultaneously, a step that looked like it could help defuse mounting tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Until the last few days, Baku had imposed sweeping restrictions on the Lachin corridor - the only road linking Armenia with Karabakh - and had blocked aid on the grounds that the route was purportedly being used for arms smuggling.

Yerevan had said that Baku's actions had caused a humanitarian catastrophe, something Azerbaijan denied, and were illegal.

Armenia's foreign ministry had said on Monday that Azerbaijan's diplomatic stance looked like it was preparing the ground for some kind of military action.

(Reporting by ReutersWriting by Andrew OsbornEditing by)
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Azerbaijan strikes targets in Nagorno-Karabakh, launches military operation
Elsa Court
Tue, September 19, 2023 



Azerbaijan has launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh with the claimed "goal of restoring the constitutional order," the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan announced on Sept. 19.

Azerbaijan has called it "local anti-terrorist measures." Baku also claimed that Yerevan has been attacking Azerbaijan's soldiers and building additional fortifications in the region.

The news comes after Azerbaijan claimed on Sept. 18 that Armenian forces fired on Azerbaijani outposts on the border between the two countries.

There's no evidence backing these claims at this time.

Armenian Defense Ministry said that the claims do not correspond to reality.

In Stepanakert or Khankendi, the de-facto capital of Nagorno-Karabakh, air raid sounded and there are reports of gunfire and explosions.

Attacks on communications infrastructure have led to a lack of internet and telephone connectivity in the territory, Andranik Shirinyan, Armenia Representative to Freedom House, said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized as Azerbaijan's territory under international law, but its population of 120,000 is predominantly Armenian.

The territory declared independence in 1991 with Yerevan's military support. Until 2020, Armenia de facto controlled Nagorno-Karabakh together with the surrounding regions.

In 2020, Azerbaijan launched a military operation establishing control over parts of Nagorno Karabakh.

In November 2020, Russia brokered an armistice between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Moscow sent forces to patrol the Lachin corridor, the only road connecting Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.

In 2022, Yerevan accused Russia of failing its peacekeeping mission when Moscow began withdrawing its troops in 2022 and allowed Azerbaijan blockade Nagorno-Karabakh, preventing basic supplies from reaching the population.

The U.S. and EU have called on Azerbaijan to end the blockade.

In February 2023, he International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled in favor of Yerevan's appeal to lift the blockade Nagorno-Karabakh.

Baku denied imposing a blockade.

Commenting on the issue, Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev said that "Armenians living in the Karabakh must either accept Azerbaijani citizenship or look for another place to live."

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Why Armenia may be the next target for Russian aggression

Team Mighty
Mon, September 18, 2023 

Armenian opposition supporters march with torches during an anti-Russian rally against Russia's policy in the Karabakh conflict and its military action in Ukraine, in Yerevan on November 9, 2022. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN/AFP via Getty Images)

The small but mighty nation of Armenia is in an interesting geopolitical neighborhood. On its western border is Turkey, a NATO ally but longtime enemy. To its east is another enemy, Azerbaijan, with which Armenia just fought over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, claimed by both countries.

In the north is Georgia which is in a never ending war of words and spies (and sometimes actual wars) with Russia. Both Georgia and Armenia were part of the Soviet Union, but even when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, support for Russia in Armenia was high.

To Armenia south is Iran, which, for the moment, is friendly to Russia-aligned Armenia. But in late September 2023, Armenia will host the United States for a joint military exercise. The move is far more threatening to Russia, which hosts Russian military forces as part of its Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) membership. The exercises are the latest in a split between Russia and Armenia, which could permanently break their relations – or worse.

Armenia and Russia have retained close relations since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Armenia joined Russia in the Commonwealth of Independent States, and joined the economic military and mutual aid collaboration of the CSTO in 1997. But since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan was elected to lead Armenia in 2018, the country has been slowly breaking away from Russia’s sphere of influence.

When fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan broke out over the Nagorno-Karabakh region once again in 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin didn’t immediately intervene, cooling relations between the two even more. Pashinyan went further in September 2023.

“Moscow has been unable to deliver and is in the process of winding down its role in the wider South Caucasus region," Pashinyan said. "The Russian Federation cannot meet Armenia's security needs. This example should demonstrate to us that dependence on just one partner in security matters is a strategic mistake."

The Prime Minister’s words come after Armenia announced it sent the first lady of the country to deliver humanitarian aid to Ukraine. It has also begun to further distance itself from the Russia-led CSTO. The military drills are just Armenia’s latest effort at realigning itself with the West.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that the drills are “cause for concern” and Moscow will “monitor the situation.”

Armenia now finds itself in a Ukraine-like situation. Tired of dealing with Russian hegemony, which has caused a lot of economic hardships in Armenia, the Armenian government is beginning to look further and further West toward the U.S. and EU.

But Russia has built up a lot of armed forces inside Armenia. Even worse, Russians fleeing the war in Ukraine have moved to Armenia in droves, meaning Moscow has the ability to hide its own people among the refugees there, a potential hidden “fifth column” like the tactic used to seize Crimea.

Enemies on three borders, a country potentially filled with pro-Russian sympathizers and an ever-worsening lack of external will to keep Armenia independent could mean Armenia loses its independence entirely. It could be one more former Soviet republic absorbed by Putin’s dream of rebuilding the USSR.

Blinken likely to get involved in Armenia-Azerbaijan diplomatic engagement -US official

Humeyra Pamuk
Tue, September 19, 2023

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken chairs U.N. Security Council meeting on famine, food insecurity

By Humeyra Pamuk

UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - The United States is engaging in diplomatic outreach after Azerbaijan launched "anti-terrorist activities" in the Nagorno-Karabakh region on Tuesday, U.S. officials said, adding that the incident was particularly dangerous.

A senior U.S. State Department official said U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken was likely to get involved in the next 24 hours in the diplomatic engagement already under way on the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Blinken discussed the situation and stated the need for de-escalation, Interfax reported, citing the Armenian government.

Azerbaijan launched military action in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, a step that could presage a new war in the volatile area but which Baku said was necessary to restore constitutional order and drive out Armenian military formations.

A second senior State Department official said the incident overnight was "particularly egregious and particularly dangerous, so we'll obviously be in touch with all sides."

Karabakh is internationally recognized as Azerbaijani territory but part of it is run by breakaway ethnic Armenian authorities who say the area is their ancestral homeland. It has been at the center of two wars - the latest in 2020 - since the 1991 fall of the Soviet Union.

This week, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was able to make simultaneous aid deliveries via the Lachin corridor and a separate road linking Karabakh to the Azerbaijani city of Aghdam.

Despite that, tensions have risen sharply this month, with Armenia and Azerbaijan accusing each other of building up troops.

"It's concerning that this happened overnight, especially because we did see some progress yesterday with shipments moving through the Lachin corridor," the first official said.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have already fought two wars over Karabakh in the three decades since the Soviet Union collapsed. Both had been part of the Soviet Union.

Analysts say successive rounds of talks, mediated variously by the European Union, the United States and Russia, have brought the two sides closer to a permanent peace treaty than they have been for years, but a final settlement remains elusive.

(Reporting by Doina Chiacu and Humeyra Pamuk; Writing by Daphne Psaledakis; Editing by Howard Goller)

Key Democrat chafes at US response to Armenia-Azerbaijan crisis
Lydia McFarlane
Fri, September 15, 2023



Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) expressed frustration Thursday with the Biden administration’s lack of urgency in addressing what the United States has described as a “rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation” in Nagorno-Karabakh, a hotly disputed region at the center of rising tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Menendez, while chairing of a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on the crisis, said he was “amazed” by the responses from Yuri Kim, the acting assistant secretary for the State Department’s Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs.

“I have been doing this for 31 years. I am amazed sometimes at what the department comes before this committee and says,” he said at the end of the hearing.

The senator’s frustration centered on the administration’s application of Section 907 of the United States Freedom Support Act, which bans direct support to the Azerbaijani government. However, Kim listed various reasons that ban has been waived, mainly to bolster Azerbaijan’s anti-terror efforts and secure its border with Iran.

Menendez argued that the U.S. was only helping the regime of Azerbaijan’s authoritarian President Ilham Aliyev, whom the senator blamed for a blockade that has cut off Karabakh in apparent violation of a 2020 truce between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

“I have repeatedly expressed my deep opposition about waiving Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act, allowing the United States to send assistance to his regime,” he said. “This clearly alters the balance of military power between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Aliyev’s favor. I think Azerbaijan’s actions over the past three years have vindicated my skepticism.”

Earlier this year, Azerbaijani troops began a blockade of the Lachin corridor, which has reportedly led to the starvation of indigenous Armenians in the semi-autonomous Nagorno-Karabakh.

The U.S. State Department released a statement Sept. 10 warning of the “urgent need” for humanitarian supplies in the region, but it avoided assigning direct blame.

“The United States is deeply concerned about the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh,” the statement reads. “We note that humanitarian supplies are positioned near both the Lachin and Aghdam routes, and we repeat our call for the immediate and simultaneous opening of both corridors to allow passage of desperately needed humanitarian supplies to the men, women, and children in Nagorno-Karabakh. We also urge leaders against taking any actions that raise tensions or distract from this goal. The use of force to resolve disputes is unacceptable.”

When Menendez asked Kim why Aliyev refused to open to corridor despite numerous promises to do so, Kim responded, “We can have that conversation in a different setting, sir.”

Menendez shook his head before saying, “What would be classified?”

“I’ll give you an unclassified answer: He won’t open the corridor because he is trying to subjugate these people by starvation or by the threat of starvation and subject them to his will,” the senator continued.

In renewing the Section 907 waiver, the Biden administration has argued that targeted U.S. assistance is not undermining broader efforts to broker lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan, who fought a 44-day war over Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020.

Yet the Armenian American community sees the extension of the waiver as a betrayal following Biden’s historic decision in 2021 to recognize, for the first time, the Armenian Genocide.

Menendez has been a consistent opponent of the waiver, and while the waiver is up for renewal, Menendez said he is doubtful the administration will change its stance.

Menendez delivered remarks on the Senate floor Tuesday urging the Biden administration to take immediate action in holding Aliyev accountable for the blockade, which has the characteristics of genocide, according to Article II of the U.N. Genocide Convention.

So far, there is one reported death amid severe food shortages in Nagorno-Karabakh, with many more expected to follow without immediate assistance. Kim noted that with U.S. pressure, one truck has made it through the blockade with humanitarian aid.

“One truck is not mercy,” Menendez said.

That truck was also Russian, which was cause for concern for members of the committee. Moscow mediated the 2020 ceasefire, but Kim said it was proving to be an unreliable broker.

Russia is Armenia’s sole provider of energy and has a military presence in the country. Kim said the crisis offered the U.S. an opportunity to rebalance Armenia’s geopolitical relationships in America’s favor, as Armenians become disillusioned with Russia as an ally amid the Ukraine war.

“[Armenians] are beginning to have second thoughts about having invited Russian troops onto their territory, relying on Russia as their sole source of energy, [and] hosting Russian military installations in their lands,” Kim said.

While Kim repeatedly reassured the committee that the State Department is working hard to reopen the corridor and avoid impending genocide, Menendez was unconvinced.

“I just hope you’ll tell the secretary [of State] on my behalf: I would hate to see this administration stand by and allow ethnic cleansing to take place on their watch and under their eye,” Menendez said.

Azerbaijani forces using Russian-style symbols are massing on the border of Armenia

James Kilner
Fri, September 15, 2023 

The ∀ symbol on military vehicle of the Azerbaijani army, which is moving to the border with Armenia

Azerbaijan’s military is building up its forces near Armenia and has painted its vehicles with “war markings” similar to ones used by the Russian army before it invaded Ukraine.

Open-source intelligence shared with the Telegraph by The Centre for Information Resilience (CIR) appears to back up Armenian claims that Azerbaijan is preparing for war.

Alongside intensified activity at Azerbaijani bases, CIR said that it had also detected an increase in flights between Azerbaijan and a military airfield in Israel, one of its allies, and opposing military manoeuvres by Iran, which is allied to Armenia.

“It is possible these are routine movements but analysis of other open-source data available may further indicate military build-up,” said Kyle Glen, a CIR investigator.

The Azerbaijani military symbols are an inverted “A” and stylised “F” and have been painted mainly on army infantry trucks and armoured personnel carriers.

Azerbaijan has not explained the symbols but the Russian military used “V” and “Z” symbols as battle group identifiers before it invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and, as in Russia, Azerbaijani nationalists have also adopted these military markings as avatars and logos.

For the Armenian government, Azerbaijan’s intentions are clear.

“We are concerned that a new war could start, or at least a large-scale build-up of aggression,” said Vahan Kostanyan, Armenia’s deputy foreign minister.

Azerbaijan has previously denied this. Its foreign ministry did not respond to the Telegraph’s requests for comment.

Armenia claims it is possible that Azerbaijan is preparing for an invasion

The focus of the force build-up is the border area around Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous parcel of land roughly the size of Somerset that Azerbaijan and Armenia have disputed and fought over since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991.

In a five-week war in 2020, roughly 7,000 people were killed. Azerbaijan defeated Armenia in the war, using Turkish drones for the first time, before the Kremlin stepped in to impose a ceasefire.

But analysts said that with the Kremlin distracted by its invasion of Ukraine and Western influence limited in the South Caucasus, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev is now looking to finish his lifetime ambition of driving all ethnic Armenians out of the Nagorno-Karabakh region.

“We’re at a dangerous point and we are only a couple of steps away from a new conflict,” said Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank.

The war in Ukraine has also ripped up traditional alliances, fracturing the inherently unstable South Caucasus.

Armenia’s most important ally and business partner has been Russia and the Kremlin had been seen as a guarantor of Armenian independence. Under the 2020 peace deal that stopped the war, Russian soldiers were given a peacekeeping role and the Kremlin keeps one of its biggest overseas military bases outside Gyumri, Armenia’s second city.

But Armenia has accused the Kremlin of ignoring Azerbaijani aggression because it didn’t back its invasion of Ukraine and it has shifted its diplomatic focus towards the West. Nikol Pashinyan, the Armenian prime minister, sent his wife to Kyiv this month with humanitarian aid and has hosted American soldiers for a military exercise, infuriating the Kremlin.

Mr de Waal said that Armenia’s diplomatic shift was understandable. “If Russia doesn’t protect you, what is the utility of the relationship?” he said.

If the war in Ukraine has been a disaster for Armenia’s relations with Russia, it has been a major boon for Azerbaijan, which has increased its gas supplies to Europe.

EU leaders have flown to Baku to shake hands with Mr Aliyev and have welcomed Azerbaijani diplomats in Brussels, making it far harder for them to constrain him. Azerbaijan has also rebuilt its damaged links with Russia, buying extra Russian gas to supplement its supplies to the EU.

Another major headache, analysts have said, is that any potential new war around Nagorno-Karabakh could have wider implications and make it more explosive than the 2020 war. As well as Israel, Turkey is an ally of Azerbaijan and Pakistan is an arms supplier. Armenia has developed an alliance with Iran, although it has insisted that this is not a military alliance, and it buys weapons from India.

Azerbaijan’s has painted its vehicles with 'war markings' similar to ones used by the Russian army

Pressure has been building around Nagorno-Karabakh over the past couple of years. There are regular deadly skirmishes along the border, but it is now firmly focused on a single stretch of road 20 miles long called the Lachin Corridor that links mainland Armenia with a mountain plateau.

Since December, Azerbaijan has blocked the Lachin corridor, first using civilian environmental protesters and then installing a blockade that stops even aid convoys from reaching the city of Stepanakert, all overseen by watching and impassive Russian soldiers.

Roughly 120,000 ethnic Armenians live on this mountain plateau, in and around Stepanakert, which is now cut off.

Luisine, who lives in Stepanakert, said that bread, meat and medical supplies are tightly rationed and that people have reverted to a form of mediaeval subsistence existence.

“There hasn’t been bread for three days,” she said by telephone. “When I walk through the streets I hear children begging their mothers for food and their mothers crying because they have no answers.”

Stepanakert’s stores are bare and there is no coffee, tea or tobacco. Farmers carry basic produce to market on foot or by donkey and cart.

When Luisine visited the town’s main market this week, she said that only fresh mulberries and mulberry juice were on sale. “It’s terrifying right now,” she said.

The Armenian government has accused Azerbaijan of “genocide”. Azerbaijan has said that it installed the roadblock to stop arms smuggling and has offered an alternative route to reach the town.

For Anjelika it is clear that another war is imminent. She said that Azerbaijan wants to drive her from her village, a few miles from Stepanakert, and her son has been drafted into the local ethnic Armenian army.

“Things are terrible. Very bad,” she said, insisting that she won’t leave. “There is nothing left, no butter, salt, cereals, vegetables or hygiene products. Nothing.”

Trump plans to meet with striking autoworkers in Michigan instead of attending second GOP debate

SCAB AND A DOZEN SECRET SERVICE

MEG KINNARD
Mon, September 18, 2023 

Former President Donald Trump will travel to the battleground state of Michigan next week to meet with striking autoworkers instead of participating in the second Republican presidential debate, a person familiar with his plans said Monday.

Trump, who also skipped the first debate last month, has signaled that he is already focused on the 2024 election against President Joe Biden as he maintains a wide lead against his GOP rivals in primary polls. In recent days, he has been leaning hard into the strike, painting himself as sympathetic to the workers and accusing Biden of trying to destroy the car industry by expanding electric cars and other green energy policies.

The Sept. 27 trip, first reported by The New York Times, will also include a primetime speech, according to the person familiar with the plans who spoke to The Associated Press on condition of anonymity before they were made public.

That’s the date others in the GOP field will gather at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, California, for the cycle’s second primary debate.

When his fellow GOP contenders gathered in Milwaukee last month, Trump instead took part in a pre-taped interview with Tucker Carlson, which aired on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter during the debate’s first hour.

Trump has long sought to paint himself as a fighter for the “forgotten men and women” of the working class and spent much of his 2016 campaign campaigning in Rust Belt towns suffering from the shift away from mining and manufacturing. Earlier this year, he visited East Palestine, Ohio, after a train derailment, a visit aides have considered a key moment in his campaign as he worked to recover from midterm losses, and as they tried to move his focus away from his 2020 loss.

Ammar Moussa, a Biden campaign spokesperson, said Monday: “Donald Trump is going to Michigan next week to lie to Michigan workers and pretend he didn’t spend his entire failed presidency selling them out at every turn. Instead of standing with workers, Trump cut taxes for the super-wealthy while auto companies shuttered their doors and shipped American jobs overseas.” Moussa argued that Trump would have let auto companies go bankrupt during the financial crisis rather than bail them out, as President Barack Obama did in 2009.

On Monday, the United Auto Workers and Detroit’s Big Three carmakers resumed talks aimed at ending a strike that began last week. Stellantis described the discussion as “constructive.” A spokesperson for General Motors said representatives of the company and the United Auto Workers were continuing to negotiate.

Shawn Fain, the UAW president who has previously said that a second Trump presidency would be a “disaster," seemed to argue against Trump's efforts.

“Every fiber of our union is being poured into fighting the billionaire class and an economy that enriches people like Donald Trump at the expense of workers," Fain said in a statement issued Tuesday. "We can’t keep electing billionaires and millionaires that don’t have any understanding what it is like to live paycheck to paycheck and struggle to get by and expecting them to solve the problems of the working class.”

Dave Green, a UAW regional director in Ohio and Indiana, said the former president’s actions during his time in office give him “zero credibility” with organized labor now, adding that he doesn’t see a way the UAW would ever endorse Trump.

“His only intention here is to try and get votes for himself. And also divide our members against each other using political rhetoric,” Green told The AP on Monday.

Trump earlier this summer traveled to Michigan, where the Oakland County GOP honored him as its Man of the Decade. Asked about the strike in an interview that aired Sunday, he told NBC News that “auto workers will not have any jobs" because "electric cars, automatically, are going to be made in China.”

“The auto workers are being sold down the river by their leadership, and their leadership should endorse Trump,” he added.

___

Associated Press writers Jill Colvin and Joey Cappelletti contributed to this report

Auto suppliers say if the UAW strikes more plants, it could mean the end for many

Jamie L. LaReau, Detroit Free Press
Tue, September 19, 2023 

Pat Green is nervous. He has spent the past two years trying to hire talented people to fill the two plants in Grand Rapids operated by Cascade Die Casting Group, which makes aluminum and zinc diecasting for the automotive and appliance industries.

"We’ve got a good team now and I don’t want to lose people because it was hard to find good people," Green, who is CEO of the company, told the Detroit Free Press on Monday.

Pat Green, CEO of Cascade Die Casting Group in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

That's why on the fourth day of a historic United Auto Workers strike against the Detroit Three automakers, Green was intensely planning for ways to ride it out without having to lay off workers if the strike grows and stretches into weeks. He has good reason for planning. On Monday night UAW President Shawn Fain announced a new strike deadline of this Friday at noon. If Ford Motor Co., General Motors or Stellantis have not made substantial progress toward an agreement with the UAW by that time, Fain will expand the Stand Up Strike to more plants.

For Green's part, if that happens, he'll start by ending overtime at the company and then he'll ask for volunteers to take some time off with a reduced pay plan. It's something he started contemplating late last week.

The UAW's strike started at 11:59 p.m. Thursday when nearly 13,000 UAW workers across the three Detroit automakers walked out of three plants as part of the first wave of shutdowns until a new labor agreement is reached. Those plants are Ford Michigan Assembly Plant (Final Assembly and Paint only) in Wayne, Stellantis Toledo Assembly Complex in Ohio and GM's Wentzville Assembly in Missouri.

UAW Strikers slow a truck from entering the Ford Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023.

If the union and the automakers can't reach a tentative agreement, at some point the UAW has said it plans to strike more plants across the three companies. A broader and prolonged strike would mean parts suppliers couldn't keep production going if the vehicle assembly plants that use their parts are idled. No one is sure of just how long suppliers could hold out.

"We’re in better shape than most, but if others in the supply chain go down, we’ve got another crisis on our hands just like the chips crisis," Green said, referring to a recent shortage of semiconductor chips that crippled the industry. "If this stretches out to five or six weeks, there’s going to be real problems in the supply chain. And I could be wrong; it could be shorter than that.”
The first fallout

The Biden administration has been preparing to offer emergency economic aid to auto suppliers to mitigate any long-term damage caused by a prolonged strike, according to published reports.

But the strike has already had some impact. A component maker in Michigan, CIE Newcor, warned it may have to lay off 293 people.

German-based supplier ZF said that it has already had to lay off some workers at various sites, including in Michigan, said Tony Sapienza, ZF North America, Inc.’s head of communications. ZF supplies components for all the vehicles made at the three plants targeted so far in the strike, including the hybrid transmission to the Jeep Wrangler 4xe hybrid made at the Toledo facility.

Sapienza declined to say which of ZF's facilities have been affected or how many people ZF has laid off. ZF, which has North American offices in Northville, employs 11,000 people at five manufacturing sites and four technology centers in Michigan.

"The impact was immediate; we’ve had to slow production in a couple of areas," Sapienza told the Free Press. "If the strike were to broaden or last anything longer than one or two weeks, that would be a crisis for the supply chain. I’d be really concerned with tier 2 and tier 3 and their ability to stay solvent.”

Sapienza said a bigger and prolonged strike "would hurt" his company, but because of its size, it would be OK.

But “every plant that goes offline creates additional stress in the supply chain, and we really hope our customers and the UAW are taking this into consideration," Sapienza said.

U.S. Steel said Monday it is temporarily idling furnace B at the Granite City steel plant in Illinois as a "risk mitigation" in response to the UAW strike. The company said it is evaluating how many of its 1,450 employees there will be affected.

Keeping an eye on Unifor, too

All of this news comes as the UAW's counterpart in Canada, Unifor, is negotiating a new contract with Detroit automakers as well. Its current contract was slated to expire at 11:59 p.m. Monday. But in the early hours Tuesday morning, Unifor said it would keep talking with Ford, after the automaker made a “substantive offer” on a new labor contract as the former deal expired. Unifor is extending negotiations for a 24-hour period.

Unlike the UAW, Unifor is following tradition and has selected a target company — Ford — to negotiate a deal with first. It would use that agreement as a template for contracts with the other two. In the U.S., the UAW is negotiating with all three automakers separately, but simultaneously.

Around 4 p.m. Monday, Unifor National President Lana Payne said there was still no tentative agreement with Ford.

"While we remain at the table the likelihood of a strike increases with each passing hour," Payne said, adding that the union has advised more than 5,600 members at Ford facilities in Canada to prepare for all scenarios, including a strike.

After Ford's eleventh hour "substantive offer," Unifor said it will negotiate through the night, but members should continue to maintain strike readiness.

If Unifor does not get a tentative agreement and strikes in solidarity with the UAW, that will be a double whammy for parts suppliers.

“These are not normal times," Sapienza said. "We’re coming off of three years of stress on the supply chain and so we’re already in a fragile state. We’re keeping an eye on Unifor, for sure. … There’s only so much more stress the system can take.”

Layoffs could go into the thousands

The state of the supply chain is delicate. That's because it has had to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic, which shut down the industry for eight weeks, then suppliers faced a massive shortage of semiconductor chips used in a variety of car parts. Since early last year many suppliers have struggled to hire and retain workers.

Joe Petrillo, director of business development and advanced engineering at Meridian Lightweight Technologies in Plymouth, said the company is a global supplier of lightweight cast metal parts to many automakers including the Detroit Three. So the strike is a concern because of the interconnection of the supply chain from the tier 1 suppliers — those that supply parts directly to the carmakers — down to the smaller tier 2 and tier 3 suppliers, those who supply components to the tier 1 group.

"We are monitoring the events and checking in with our suppliers and customers," Petrillo said. "In our view, an escalation of events that leads to a prolonged strike that possibly idles all the Detroit Three (manufacturing) plants, may prove to be the last Jenga block on a supply base that has been stressed to the max, having to overcome COVID shutdowns, 'stop-and-go production' due to chip and part shortages, while still trying to work its way through a constrained manufacturing labor market."

Alicia Carter of Westland strikers outside of the Ford Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne on Monday, Sept. 18, 2023.

Glenn Stevens, executive director of MICHauto, the group that advocates for the statewide automotive industry, said he has been talking to suppliers for a couple months and they have all been preparing for a strike scenario for some time.

“Some much more proactively than others, but nobody was flying blind anticipating that there might not be a work stoppage,” Stevens said.

There are about 1,000 supplier facilities in Michigan, he said, noting that 96 of the top 100 suppliers to the North American auto market either have their headquarters or a facility in Michigan. So if the strike expands to other automaker plants and lasts into weeks, the job layoffs could reach into tens of thousands.

"You have the direct employment and you have the multiplier affect of each of the automotive jobs and that is between six to 10 people for every one automaker job, so it’s substantial," Stevens said. "This is the largest industry in our economy. It has an economic contribution of over $300 billion annually to the state of Michigan.
The potential impact

The larger suppliers are likely more protected than the smaller ones from strike fallout, said Laurie Harbour, CEO of Harbour Results, Inc. That's because they often have other customers from other industries to keep business going. They can move people around and change up schedules to avoid massive layoffs.

Laurie Harbour, CEO of Harbour Results, Inc.

"I talked to several companies last Friday and most said little to no impact yet," Harbour said. "Any one program, which is what you’re looking at with the (automakers), is not going to create massive layoffs but come tomorrow or the next day if (UAW's Fain) closes more plants and we get to a significant product like the (Ford) F-150 pickup, then you’re going to see more layoffs."

Because the sales volume of the F-150 is so important, if the union were to strike the plants that build Ford's big seller, "you’ll see thousands of layoffs because you have so many supplier plants and sub-suppliers," Harbour said.

"The fact that it’s happening in this spotty fashion is actually better for the supplier community," Harbour said. "But every day or week that goes by you could see more and more layoffs."

Big auto suppliers react

At giant tier 1 auto supplier Magna International, leaders are closely monitoring the situation, said Dave Niemiec, Magna spokesman. The company has about 12,450 employees in Michigan. Niemiec said it is premature to comment on any specific impact the strike may have on its operations.

"However, we have focused considerable attention on contingency planning to proactively address any temporary business disruptions to our operations," Niemiec said. "If that time comes, we are prepared in terms of temporarily scaling back production on affected programs as efficiently as possible, while being equally prepared to ramp up quickly when ready. In the meantime, we remain hopeful that the parties will be able to reach amicable agreements and the disruption and potential impact will be minimal."

When asked of any impact from the strike on Lear, spokesman Brian Corbett said, "At this time, we’re not commenting on the UAW strike."

Auto supplier ZF's North American headquarters in Northville, Michigan.

'We have to take action'

Harbour said most suppliers she's talked to are prepared or at least forming plans if the strike grows that include considering how to effectively keep producing, make scheduling changes to their shifts and have layoff strategies in place, even offering supplemental pay up to 70% of workers' salaries if they are laid off.

"Those are the ones who are financially strong and don’t want to lose their people," Harbour said. “It’s a daily challenge and you’ll evaluate everything every day: What is my forecast? What can I deliver to my customer? And run a little bit of inventory so that when the spigot comes back on, I have parts and ready to go.”

At Cascade Die Casting Group, Green said the company makes parts for the Detroit Three's SUVs and pickups. For example, it makes parts for the Jeep Grand Cherokee that Stellantis builds at the Mack Avenue Assembly Plant in Detroit. If the UAW strikes that plant or any of the plants that make the Detroit Three's heavy duty pickups, Green has to be ready.

"We know we can build some inventory for a period of time, but that’s a week or less so we’re going to have to start making plans to ask our employees to take time off almost immediately," Green said. "We’re waiting until one of the plants we supply parts to shuts down and we expect the union will shut down additional plants when they turn up the heat. When that happens, that’s when we have to take action.”

More: Canada's Unifor nears deadline in contract talks with Detroit 3: What to know

More: UAW's Fain: Biden, White House team not involved in negotiations with automakers

Jamie L. LaReau: jlareau@freepress.com. Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. 

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Auto suppliers warn closures if UAW strikes more plants

A new breed of leaders are atop the largest US unions today. Here are some faces to know

United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain talks with members at the Labor Day parade in Detroit, Monday, Sept. 4, 2023. Fain has become an outspoken and aggressive union member and leader. At the time of his March election, Fain vowed to take a more confrontational stance in negotiating with big automakers — as well as clean up the union and unite members following a wide-ranging scandal that landed two former presidents in prison. 

(AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

 Sean O'Brien, Teamsters General President, center, greets teamsters and United Parcel Service workers at a rally in downtown Los Angeles on July 19, 2023. O’Brien, a Boston-area native who grew up in a Teamsters family, worked with then-president James Hoffa (the son of Jimmy Hoffa, the former Teamsters leader) as the chief negotiator in the Teamsters' 2017 contract talks with UPS.

 (AP Photo/Damian Dovarganes, File)


 Fran Drescher, president of SAG-AFTRA, is interviewed at a Writers Guild of America rally outside Paramount Pictures studio on May 8, 2023, in Los Angeles. In the ’90s, Drescher rose to fame as the co-creator and star of “The Nanny.” She is now the first president of the guild to preside over a film and TV actors strike since 1980. Actors have been on strike since July and, like the screenwriters who began picketing earlier this year, they're seeking better pay in an industry vastly changed due to streaming and the emergence of artificial intelligence. (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello, File

 Teamsters union president Sean O'Brien talks with President Joe Biden, at the White House in Washington on April 4, 2022. O’Brien, a Boston-area native who grew up in a Teamsters family, worked with then-president James Hoffa (the son of Jimmy Hoffa, the former Teamsters leader) as the chief negotiator in the Teamsters' 2017 contract talks with UPS. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik, File)
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Actor Joely Fisher, from left, SAG-AFTRA president Fran Drescher and Duncan Crabtree-Ireland, SAG-AFTRA national executive director and chief negotiator, take part in a rally by striking writers and actors outside Netflix studio in Los Angeles on July 14, 2023. Drescher took over as president of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists in September 2021 and has become a firebrand, as well as the face and voice of the top creative minds in Hollywood, over the past few months.

 (AP Photo/Chris Pizzello, File)

Associated Press
Mon, September 18, 2023 

NEW YORK (AP) — There will be no Emmy Awards tonight and there are thousands of auto workers on picket lines in Missouri, Michigan and Ohio in a seemingly rapid reemergence of organized labor this year.

Unions have nowhere near the pull, or members, that they did decades ago, yet something has changed. There's no single explanation, but the boiling point we’re seeing today comes amid soaring costs of living and a widening gap between what workers and top executives are paid. Thousands of workers who were asked to make sacrifices during the pandemic even as corporate profits soared are now asking for a bigger piece of the pie.

Those demands have sparked grassroots organizing efforts across the country in the last year. And some of the nation’s largest unions have simultaneously been at the center of heated contract negotiations — with writers and actors hitting Hollywood picket lines, unionized auto workers striking at Detroit's Big Three and UPS reaching a new deal to avert a work stoppage that could have significantly disrupted the nation's supply chain.

Leading those efforts are new union leaders voted into power by workers that have seemingly run out of patience as they have a more difficult time making ends meet.

Here are some faces you should know.

Shawn Fain, United Auto Workers

Before Shawn Fain became the rallying voice for thousands of unionized auto workers striking at major car companies today, he was an electrician for Chrysler in his hometown of Kokomo, Indiana.

Fain became president of United Auto Workers this year, but his time with the union began at that then-Chrysler plant in 1994. Two of Fain’s grandparents were GM UAW retirees and one grandfather also worked at Chrysler, the union says. A biography on the UAW website notes that Fain “always carries one of his grandfather’s pay stubs with him" to remember where he came from.

Fain won a tight election to lead the UAW promising a more confrontational stance with big automakers. He vowed to clean up the union and unite members following a wide-ranging scandal that landed two former presidents in prison.

Fain has engaged aggressively with General Motors, Ford and Stellantis (formerly Fiat Chrysler). Months of contentious contract talks erupted into targeted strikes last week against all three Detroit automakers for the first time in the union's history.

The union under Fain has threatened to hit more plants if there is not enough movement from automakers during negotiations. The UAW wants across-the-board wage increases of 36% over four years, about twice what automakers are offering.


Even Fain has acknowledged that union demands are audacious, but he says automakers are raking in billions and can afford them.

“They could double our raises and not raise car prices and still make millions of dollars in profits,” Fain said last week. “We’re not the problem. Corporate greed is the problem.”

Sean O'Brien, International Brotherhood of Teamsters

Much of what you need to know about Teamsters president Sean O'Brien is right there in his handle for X/Twitter: @TeamstersSOB. Yes, those are O’Brien’s initials, sort of, but the underlying message is clear.

No one understands that better than UPS and perhaps James Hoffa, (son of the notorious Teamsters leader Jimmy Hoffa who disappeared in 1975), who was unseated by union members seeking a major leadership change.

O’Brien, a Boston-area native who grew up in a Teamsters family, worked with then-president Hoffa as the chief negotiator in the Teamsters' 2017 contract talks with UPS, but Hoffa abruptly fired him. The contract agreement was widely criticized by members and passed only through a procedural technicality, with a majority of votes cast in opposition.

O’Brien announced a union presidential campaign in 2021 against Hoffa, who soon bowed out. The network of reform-minded union leaders O’Brien assembled helped to elect him easily.

O'Brien immediately zeroed in on UPS and sought to right in their contract what many in the union saw as numerous wrongs. The Teamsters secured a lucrative contract last month that boosted wages and eliminated a second, lower-paid tier for some drivers. The winning margin: 86%.

O'Brien's UPS campaign appears to be a prelude to organizing delivery drivers for the online behemoth, Amazon.com.

“This is the template for how workers should be paid and protected nationwide, and nonunion companies like Amazon better pay attention,” O’Brien said.

Fran Drescher, SAG-AFTRA

Fran Drescher rose to fame as the co-creator and star of “The Nanny” in the ’90s. She's become the first president of Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists to preside over a strike since 1980.

Actors have been on picket lines since July and along with screenwriters who struck earlier this year, they're seeking better pay in an industry vastly changed due to streaming and the emergence of artificial intelligence.

Since becoming president of SAG-AFTRA in 2021, Drescher has become a firebrand voice for the top creative minds in Hollywood.

Drescher told The Associated Press that this moment in Hollywood is about the entire world of work, and a larger stand against corporate leaders who value shareholders over the people who create their product.

“At some point you have to say no more,” she said in recent interview. “I think it’s a conversation now about the culture of big business, and how it treats everybody up and down the ladder in the name of profit.”

Unlike the writers’ negotiations, the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers, which represents major studios, has yet to resume talks with the actors guild.

Writers Guild of America Leaders

Screenwriters have been on strike since early May — far surpassing the landmark 2007-2008 work stoppage that last ground Hollywood productions to a halt.

Talks between WGA leadership and the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers resumed last month, but haltingly. Those on strike seek more pay, the use of smaller writing staffs for shorter seasons of television shows, and control over artificial intelligence in the screenwriting process.

Today, news and documentary writer Michael Winship is the president of the Writers Guild of America East. TV writer and former journalist Lisa Takeuchi Cullen, WGAE’s current vice president, will become the next president after voting closes later this week.

Takeuchi Cullen, whose previous TV credits include “The Ordained” and “Law & Order: SVU,” tweeted last month that, “I will lead @WGAEast in our epic battle for fair pay."

“This is not your father’s Council. Your elected representatives are tireless, passionate, and in the thick of our careers," she wrote. "We have skin in the game. We get our members’ issues because they are ours too.”

Meredith Stiehm, a writer and executive producer who created the CBS procedural “Cold Case,” has been president of the Writers Guild of America West since 2021. Stiehm is running for reelection against challenger Rich Talarico (“Key & Peele”), with voting set to close Tuesday.

A night with striking UAW picketers involves laughter, dancing — and sleep deprivation

Phoebe Wall Howard, Detroit Free Press
Updated Fri, September 15, 2023

Temperatures dropped to 52 degrees after 3:30 a.m. Friday and all the TV camera crews were gone.

Striking UAW members remained.

Factory workers carried their picket signs at gates outside Ford's Michigan Assembly Plant in Wayne, hugging each other and laughing and chanting and even dancing on Michigan Avenue as thousands of UAW workers from three Ford, GM and Stellantis auto plants in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri started a historic strike against the Detroit Three.

Factory workers at Michigan Assembly endured six-hour strike shifts that began at midnight Thursday with plans to continue non-stop every day until workers reach a deal with Ford Motor Co. Their four-year labor contract expired at 11:59 p.m. Thursday. And while members on the picket line talked of deserving better wages and benefits, few criticized the company or its executives directly.

Horns honked with every car and truck that passed, it seemed all night. People streamed in and out of the UAW Local 900 union hall across the street from the factory that builds the Bronco SUV and Ranger pickup.

"This is what it's gonna take to get to where we need to be," said Dwayne Walker, 60, of Westland, president of UAW Local 900. "Now is our time. If not now, when?"

More: UAW strike 2023 against Detroit automakers: Live updates, news from the picket sites
'It feels different'

UAW President Shawn Fain had been and gone, mobbed by throngs and flanked by press that could be heard speaking various languages. He spent time talking to the press but he remained on site and talked with members and their supporters into the night.

"I love what you're doing, leading the way for us," Jean Taylor, 63, of Wayne told Fain. He smiled.

Jean Taylor of Wayne, a Hi-Lo driver for 30 years at Ford's Woodhaven Stamping Plant, showed up at the Michigan Assemby Plant to support striking workers. She is standing outside the UAW Local 900 hall on Sept. 15, 2023.

Taylor, a retired Hi-Lo driver who spent three decades working for Ford at Woodhaven Stamping Plant, went to the strike site to support the UAW. She said she felt overwhelmed by the feeling of unity on Friday morning. "It feels different to me because young people are coming together. They understand the union, the cause and the fight.
Got faith

Inside the union hall, a father and son who work at the plant picked up signs for picketing. Their shifts aren't until next week and they came early.

"This is a historical moment. You have to stand up for what you want," said Chris Trotter, 48, of Brighton, who has worked in the stamping plant for 10 years. "It's all gonna work out if you've got faith."

Chris Trotter Jr., left, and his father Chris Trotter, of Brighton, seen here on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023 at UAW Local 900, each work at Ford's Michigan Assembly and each has strike duty.

Chris Trotter Jr., 18, of Brighton, who began working in body shop assembly at the same plant as his father in May, said, "I think it takes a lot of work, time and effort to get what you want."

As they passed through the exit, a big group of factory workers from the Dearborn Truck Plant came into the union hall to pick up posters and signs. They had finished building the Ford F-150 pickup and wanted to walk the strike line.
Up for 21 hours so far

Ebony Kennedy, 47, of Inkster, works in the Michigan Assembly Plant's quality department when she's not organizing the hall to support striking workers. She fills the coffee pot, stacks styrofoam cups and puts out miniature bags of Doritos, Fritos and Ruffle chips.

She hadn't slept in 21 hours.

Coffee is ready for striking workers at the UAW Local 900 hall across the street from Ford Michigan Assembly on Sept. 15, 2023.

The uncertainty of the situation is hard, Kennedy said.

"In 2019, it was raining and we brought ponchos" to GM workers on strike," she said. "Now it's us. We collect things all the time for other people, and now we're collecting for ourselves. I thought we'd be donating."

While taking care of her own members, she's also preparing for Christmas, when the union will adopt about 250 children identified by childcare agencies, schools and members.

To maintain her energy, she sticks to a Keto diet and avoids sugar. "You feel lighter. I have hummus and chicken and snack all day."
'It's gonna be OK'

These factory workers sometimes refer to themselves as industrial athletes. They work 10-hour shifts, stand on their feet for 10 to 12 hours and navigate repetitive motion. Still, even Day 1 of a strike is exhausting.

Michael Miller, 26, of Monroe, came into the union hall with a red nose after walking all the gates to check on picketers. As a strike captain, he needs to make sure every member is working the strike shift in order to earn the $500 a week strike pay and get health insurance.

Michael Miller of Monroe, seen here on Friday, Sept. 15 at the UAW Local 900 hall, works at Michigan Assembly.

"For us young guys, everyone thinks we make good money. We're striking so we don't have to go somewhere else. In the 1990s, people earned $30 an hour. It's the same 20 years later. Houses were $50,000 then and they're $250,000 now," Miller said. "A lot of people didn't want to strike. Everyone says we're selfish. We want what's right. We build a (Ford) truck every 52 seconds, 600 times a day. People have no idea what it's like to work here."

Leaning back in a chair in an early empty hall, he said, "This is a tough time. Life in general. We need to let people know it's gonna be OK. Everyone is going through a lot right now."

More: Experts weigh implications of UAW strike strategy
Built Ford Tough

At any given time, 200 to 300 members of UAW Local 900 are assigned strike line duty. A man with an injured foot rested awhile, having walked the picket line. The coffee station was mobbed. And Chuck Browning, a UAW vice president and top negotiator for the Ford Department, stopped by the union hall after the strike began. Members said they were shocked he didn't leave until 2:30 a.m.

Dwayne Walker of Westland is president of UAW Local 900, home to the Michigan Assembly Plant workers who build the Ford Bronco, Ranger. He is seen here on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023 at the union hall.

Ford workers wore hoodies and jackets with an arm patch that said, "Built Ford Tough."

They talked with each other about their children working at Ford and General Motors and attending Wayne State University. They talked about paying child support, the cost of new cars, the UAW strike strategy and life.

"The check engine light comes on when you get to be this age," a 60-year-old factory worker said, sending those at his table into peels of laughter. Another man sipped soup from a Tupperware container.

Union leaders estimated 3,500 people had been at the union hall throughout the evening. Each strike shift had 147 people covering 18 or so (factory) gates, union organizers said.

Justin Skytta of Livonia is not a UAW member but was one of many young supporters from outside the auto industry at the strike outside Michigan Assembly on Sept. 15, 2023.

People were so spread out that it seemed so quiet in the hours before sunrise.

By 3:25 a.m., a picketer came in and said to no one in particular, "It's cold as hell out there but I'm warming up."

Tonya Hoskins of Westland, left, has worked at Ford for 27 years. Najoi Montgomery of Southfield has worked at Ford since 2020. Both UAW members are seen here at the Michigan Assembly strike site on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023.

Outside, Najoi Montgomery danced in the street (not alone) to the traditional hustle "I've changed" by Jaheim with Keyshia Cole. She has worked for Ford since 2020, putting seatbelts in Broncos and left headlights on Broncos and Rangers.

"I dance on the (assembly) line," Montgomery said. "Don't mind me."
No naps

A few feet away, train horns sounded in the distance.

Mike Kosciolek, 55, of Troy, a Hi-Lo driver for 24 years, sat near the plant's giant Ford sign holding his placard while listening with earbuds to the fantasy novel "Homeland," from The Dark Elf Trilogy by R.A. Salvatore.

"I'm here trying to make things better," he said.

As the clock ticked past 4:30 a.m., it felt like time was dragging. It was the calm before shift change at 6 a.m.

Mike Smith, vice president of UAW Local 900, has thousands of members who work at Michigan Assembly. He played a key role in strike logistics for the targeted strike on Friday, Sept. 15, 2023.

Mike Smith, 52, of Wayne told anyone who would listen that porta-potties should be delivered to the strike line on Friday.

"I haven't slept in 24 hours," said Smith, vice president of UAW Local 900. "I tried to lay down on the floor in my office."

It never happened.

"I wish I had time to shower and shave," he said.


This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Ford Michigan Assembly plant: UAW strikers laugh, dance, drink coffee

UAW: More plants could strike without progress in negotiations

Tue, September 19, 2023 

A United Auto Worker cheers at cars as they pass outside an entrance to the Stellantis's factory where the Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator are built in Toledo, Ohio on Monday. The UAW stet a new deadline of Friday to call more workers to strike. 

Photo by Aaron Josefczyk/UPI

Sept. 19 (UPI) -- United Auto Workers union President Shawn Fain said in a video Monday night if more progress has not been made with Detroit's Big Three automakers by noon Friday, more union workers will be called to strike.

About 12,700 union workers have been on strike approaching a week at General Motors, Ford Motor and Stellantis plants but Fain suggested that it has not resulted so far in negotiations progress.

"Autoworkers have waited long enough to make things right at the Big Three," Fain said in the video. "We're not waiting around, and we're not messing around. So, noon on Friday, Sept. 22, is a new deadline."

"Either the Big Three get down to business and work with us to make progress in negotiations, or more locals will be called on to stand up and go out on strike."

Workers are currently striking at GM's midsize truck and full-size van plant in Wentzville, Mo., Ford's Ranger midsize pickup and Bronco SUV plant in Wayne, Mich.; and the Stellantis' Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator plant in Toledo, Ohio.

Fain did not indicate in the video under what negotiation positions would prompt additional walkouts or which plants might be targeted next for strikes.

The union said its key demands focus on a 40% hourly pay increase, a reduced 32-hour workweek, a shift back to traditional pensions, and a restoration of cost-of-living adjustments.

UAW to strike at more US auto plants if no progress made by Friday

Updated Mon, September 18, 2023 

By David Shepardson and Joseph White

(Reuters) -The United Auto Workers union said it would announce on Friday more plants to strike if no serious progress was made in talks with Ford, General Motors and Chrysler-parent Stellantis, adding to pressure on the Detroit Three automakers.

Ford also faces a total strike at its smaller Canadian operations if no agreement is reached on Monday evening with the union representing about 5,600 Canadian auto workers, just days after workers at one of its U.S. plants walked out.

The UAW last week launched a targeted strike against Ford, GM and Stellantis, targeting one U.S. assembly plant at each company.

"We're not going to keep waiting around forever while they drag this out," UAW President Shawn Fain said in a video message late on Monday setting the new deadline after complaining about a lack of progress in recent talks. "We're not messing around."

Canadian union Unifor, whose contract with Ford expires at 11:59 EDT on Monday (0359 GMT on Tuesday), said there was still no deal just hours before the deadline.

Unifor National President Lana Payne said in a video posted on the union's website that Ford needed to do more to meet members' expectations and demands.

"If there is a strike, this will be a total strike," she said. "Every single one of Unifor's 5,600 members at Ford in Canada will be on picket lines."

Ford has two engine plants in Canada that build V-8 motors for F-series and Super Duty pickups assembled in the United States. It also has an assembly plant in Ontario.

A walkout by Canadian workers that shut down those engine plants could cripple U.S. production of Ford's most profitable vehicles, even if the UAW decides not to order walkouts at truck plants in Kentucky; Dearborn, Michigan; and Kansas City, Missouri.

"Ours is a small but highly consequential footprint for Ford operations in North America and this is our leverage, and we will use it," Payne said.

US NEGOTIATIONS CONTINUE

Talks between the UAW and the Detroit automakers continued on Monday as a strike by auto workers over pay dragged on for a fourth day with little sign of progress toward a deal. Some 12,700 workers are striking at the three U.S. plants, including 3,300 at Ford's Wayne, Michigan assembly plant.

Union negotiators and representatives of GM, Ford and Stellantis held talks over the weekend in an attempt to end one of the most ambitious U.S. industrial labor actions in decades. On Monday, the UAW held talks with Stellantis though no deal was reached. It had scheduled a new round of talks with Ford for late afternoon.

Fain told NPR on Monday there were "minimal conversations over the weekend so the ball is in their court .... We have a long way to go."

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said it was premature to forecast the strike's impact on the economy, which would depend on how long the action lasted and what was affected.

The strikes have halted production at plants in Michigan, Ohio and Missouri that produce the Ford Bronco, Jeep Wrangler and Chevrolet Colorado, alongside other popular models.

Ford on Friday furloughed 600 workers who are not on strike at the Michigan Bronco plant because of the impact of the work stoppage. GM said it expected to halt operations at its Kansas car plant early this week because of the strike at its nearby Missouri plant, affecting 2,000 workers.

Analysts expect plants that build more profitable pickup trucks like Ford's F-150, GM's Chevy Silverado and Stellantis's Ram to be the next strike targets if the walkout continues.

The union and companies are at loggerheads over pay and benefits for workers. The three automakers have proposed 20% raises over the 4-1/2-year term of their proposed deals, though that is only half of what the UAW is demanding through 2027. The UAW at one point during the talks offered to lower its demand to 36%.

Besides higher wages, the UAW is also demanding shorter work weeks, restoration of defined benefit pensions and stronger job security as automakers make the shift to electric vehicles.

Separately, former President Donald Trump plans to skip the second Republican presidential debate and make a speech in Detroit on Sept. 27 to autoworkers and others discussing vehicle issues, an aide said.

(Reporting by David Shepardson and Ben Klayman; Additional reporting by Doina Chiacu and Jeff Mason; Editing by Alexander Smith, Richard Chang and Jamie Freed)

U.S. Steel to idle Granite City furnace B, blames UAW strike; steelworkers union rejects blame

Coke conveyors stand near the blast furnaces at U.S. Steel’s Granite City Works in Granite City, Ill., Oct. 21, 2015.

LUKE SHARRETT, NEW YORK TIMES

By Mark Maxwell and Sam Clancy – KSDK
Sep 18, 2023

United States Steel Corp. is temporarily idling furnace B at its Granite City steel plant, the company said Monday.

According to a statement from a U.S. Steel spokeswoman, the move is "risk mitigation" in response to the United Auto Workers (UAW) strike that began last week.

"As a result, we have decided to temporarily idle blast furnace ‘B’ at Granite City Works and are reallocating volumes as needed to other domestic facilities to efficiently meet customer demand," the statement said.

United Steelworkers Local 1899 President Dan Simmons said the union is still working to understand how many workers could be affected. He estimated perhaps 300 to 350 of the plant’s workers could be laid off, though he cautioned that figure was preliminary.

“They’re saying this is a temporary idle,” he said. “It won’t be a total plant shutdown.”

The U.S. Steel spokeswoman said the company anticipated the layoffs would last less than six months.

A spokesperson said in an email Monday to the Business Journal that the company expects the layoffs to happen in phases "as equipment is safely, temporarily idled."

"Impacts on specific areas of the facility – and the exact number of employees impacted -- are currently under review," the spokesperson said. "There are currently approximately 1,450 employees at Granite City Works, but we do not believe that many will be impacted."

The announcement comes four days after the UAW began its strike. About 10% of of the union's workers went on strike Friday at three different plants across the country, including General Motors' plant in Wentzville, but Simmons said he isn't buying U.S. Steel's explanation for the move.

“Our order book here was solid,” Simmons said. “It kind of caught us all off guard. It is total bull [expletive] that they’re trying to point to UAW. They’re looking at disruptions down the road. They had this planned for a while.”

A second furnace at the site – furnace A – has been idle since the pandemic started in 2020.

The idling of furnace B comes more than a year after U.S. Steel announced a plan to sell the two blast furnaces at its Granite City Works, and also said at that time that it plans to have only one finishing mill there.

U.S. Steel (NYSE: X) and SunCoke Energy announced in June 2022 a nonbonding letter of intent on the sale of two blast furnaces at Granite City that would eventually allow SunCoke to manufacture pig iron there for U.S. Steel. U.S. Steel told the Pittsburgh Business Times, a sister publication to the St. Louis Business Journal, that the sale of the blast furnaces would result in an estimated 550 jobs remaining out of 1,500 at Granite City Works.

U.S. Steel said in August that it was reviewing proposals as part of a strategic review it began last month after rejecting a bid by Ohio-based rival steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE: CLF) and its support from United Steelworkers. U.S. Steel officials said in a second-quarter earnings call in late July that conversations with SunCoke over the Granite City plant were continuing.

Go here for KSDK's full report.

Libya demonstrations turn flood aftermath into political storm

Reuters
Updated Tue, September 19, 2023 








Libyans protest outside mosque one week after deadly floods in Derna

(Reuters) - The aftermath of Libya's worst ever natural disaster was evolving into a political storm on Tuesday, after demonstrators furious at the failure to protect their city from a flood torched the home of the mayor of Derna.

The administration in charge of eastern Libya said it had suspended the mayor and fired the entire city council, after angry demonstrators demanded punishment for officials who left residents in harm's way.

The overnight protests marked the first unrest on the ground since a flood wiped out the centre of the city leaving thousands of residents confirmed dead and uncounted thousands more still missing. Following the protests, communications links with Derna were abruptly cut off on Tuesday morning.

Some journalists for media that have been broadcasting live from the city for days said on Tuesday that they had been ordered out. Officials in the eastern administration played this down or denied it.

Hichem Abu Chkiouat, minister of civil aviation in the administration that runs eastern Libya, told Reuters by phone that some reporters had been told to stay away from rescue operations, but denied this was linked to security or politics.

"It is an attempt to create better conditions for the rescue teams to carry out the work more smoothly and effectively," he said. "The large number of journalists has become an impediment to the work of rescue teams."

A spokesperson for the state-owned Libyan Telecommunications Holding Company, Mohamed Albdairi, told Libya Alahrar television that the communications had gone down in the area because some fiber optic cables had been severed. Engineers were investigating whether this was due to excavation work or sabotage, and looking to repair it, he said.

Monday's demonstration was the first open expression of mass discontent since dams burst above Derna in a storm on Sept 10, unleashing a torrent of water that swept away the centre of the city.

Demonstrators crowded into the square in front of Derna's landmark gold-domed Sahaba mosque chanting slogans. Some waved flags from atop the mosque's roof. Later in the evening, they torched the house of Mayor Abdulmenam al-Ghaithi, his office manager told Reuters.

The government administering eastern Libya said Ghaithi had been suspended as mayor, and all members of the Derna city council had been dismissed from their posts and referred to investigators.

A week after the disaster, swathes of Derna remain a muddy ruin, roamed by stray dogs, with families still searching for missing bodies in the rubble.

Angry residents say the disaster could have been prevented. Officials acknowledge that a contract to repair the dams after 2007 was never completed, blaming insecurity in the area.

Libya has been a failed state for more than a decade, with no government exercising nationwide authority since Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in 2011. Derna has been controlled since 2019 by the Libyan National Army which holds sway in the east. For several years before that it was in the hands of militant groups, including local branches of Islamic State and al Qaeda.

The demonstrators denounced the eastern-based parliament speaker Aguila Saleh, who has called the flood a natural catastrophe that could not be avoided.

"Aguila we don't want you! All Libyans are brothers!" protesters chanted.

Mansour, a student taking part in the protest, said he wanted an urgent investigation into the collapse of the dams, which "made us lose thousands of our beloved people".

Taha Miftah, 39, said the protest was a message that "the governments have failed to manage the crisis", and that the parliament was especially to blame.

The full scale of the death toll has yet to emerge, with thousands of people still missing. Officials have given widely varying death tolls. The World Health Organization has confirmed 3,922 deaths.

(Reporting by Reuters; Writing by Tom Perry and Peter Graff, Editing by Alexandra Hudson, William Maclean)

Libya floods: Why damage to Derna was so catastrophic

the Visual Journalism team and BBC Verify - BBC News
Thu, September 14, 2023 

Devastation in Derna


The Derna flooding death toll could reach 20,000 according to the city's mayor.

Entire neighbourhoods disappeared into the sea as a huge tsunami-like torrent of water swept the port city in eastern Libya.

Survivors described the situation as "beyond catastrophic".

BBC Verify and the BBC's Visual Journalism team have been analysing some of the reasons why the floods caused such catastrophic damage in Derna.
Record rainfall

The water was brought by Storm Daniel which hit Libya on Sunday.

The storm - a Mediterranean hurricane-like system known as a medicane - brought more than 400mm of rain to parts of the north-east coast within a 24-hour period.

That is an extraordinary deluge of water for a region which usually sees about 1.5mm throughout the whole of September.

Libya's National Meteorological Centre says it is a new rainfall record.

Satellite data shows the extent of some of the rainfall across the region - although in many places the amount recorded on the ground was higher.


Map showing the heavy rainfall over northern Libya and highlighting Derna and Benghazi

It's too early to attribute with certainty the severity of this storm to rising global temperatures.

However, climate change is thought to be increasing the frequency of the strongest medicanes.

Prof Liz Stephens, an expert in climate risks and resilience at Reading University in the UK, says scientists are confident that climate change is supercharging the rainfall associated with such storms.

A really simple guide to climate change


Four ways climate change affects extreme weather


Central bridges and communities along riverbed were swept away
Two dams overwhelmed

The Wadi Derna river runs from Libya's inland mountains, through the city of Derna and into the Mediterranean.

It is dry for much of the year, but the unusually heavy rain overwhelmed two crucial dams and destroyed several bridges.


Satellite image shows dam and buildings on usually dry riverbed

Residents of the city, who had been ordered by the local authorities to stay in their homes, reported hearing a loud blast before the city was engulfed in water.

"The dams would have held back the water initially, with their failure potentially releasing all the water in one go.

"The debris caught up in the floodwaters would have added to the destructive power," says Prof Stephens.

The upper dam had a storage capacity of 1.5 million cubic metres of water, whilst the lower dam could hold 22.5 million cubic metres.

Each cubic metre of water weighs about one tonne (1,000kg), so 1.5 million cubic metres of water would weigh 1.5 million tonnes.

Combine that weight with moving downhill, and it can produce enormous power. Witnesses have said that the waters were nearly three metres in places.

It is estimated that six inches (20cm) of fast moving flood-water is enough to knock someone off their feet, and 2ft (60cm) is enough to float a car. So it is no surprise that whole buildings were taken out in the flood.


Analysis of satellite images shows how many buildings affected

Experts say it's too early to know whether the extreme rainfall was simply too much for the dams to handle, or whether the condition of the structures also played a role.

Based on their observations, the dams are likely to be made from dumped and compacted soil or rocks, which is not as strong as concrete.

"These dams are susceptible to overtopping [when water exceeds a dam's capacity], and while concrete dams can survive overtopping, rockfill dams usually cannot," says Exeter University's Prof Dragan Savic, an expert in hydraulic engineering in the UK.

It appears that the upper dam failed first, according to structural engineer Andrew Barr.

He says the water then probably flowed down the rocky river valley towards the lower dam before overwhelming it, resulting in the sudden and catastrophic flooding of the city which lies trapped between mountains and the sea.

A research paper published last year on the hydrology of the Wadi Derna Basin highlighted that the area "has a high potential for flood risk", on the basis of likely historical flood volumes, and that the dams "needed periodic maintenance".

The report, by civil engineering expert Abdelwanees AR Ashoor from Libya's University of Omar Al-Mukhtar, said that "the current situation in the Derna valley basin requires officials to take immediate measures, carrying out regular maintenance of the existing dams, because in the event of a huge flood, the result will be disastrous for the residents of the valley and the city".

‏Several experts have highlighted the possible role that the political instability in Libya has played in the upkeep of the dam.

As rescue efforts in the city continue, Libyan journalist Johr Ali, who has spoken to survivors in the city, told the BBC: "People are hearing the cries of babies underground, they don't know how to get to them.

"People are using shovels to get the bodies from underneath the ground, they are using their own hands. They all say it's like doomsday."

Car engulfed in mud and rubble

Toys seen in damaged shop

Produced by Chris Clayton, Mike Hills, Paul Sargeant, Tural Ahmedzade, Kady Wardell, Gerry Fletcher, Filipa Silverio and Erwan Rivault. Additional reporting: Mark Poynting, Peter Mwai, Alex Murray, and Esme Stallard.