Saturday, December 09, 2023


Holocaust comparisons are overused -- but in the case of Hamas' Oct. 7 attack on Israel they may reflect more than just the emotional response of a traumatized people


Avinoam Patt, University of Connecticut 
Liat Steir-Livny, Sapir Academic College
Thu, December 7, 2023 

On Oct. 12, a sign in Tel Aviv says in Hebrew, 'No more words,' near candles lit both in memory of those killed in the Hamas massacres and for the hostages taken to the Gaza Strip. Amir Levy/Getty Images


Many observers have referred to the massacre of Israelis by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, as the deadliest attack against the Jewish people in a single day “since the Holocaust.”

As scholars who have spent decades studying the history of Israel’s relationship with the Holocaust, we have argued that the Holocaust should remain unique and not be compared with other atrocities. We have written against simplistic Holocaust analogies, like comparing mask and vaccine mandates during the COVID-19 pandemic to the Nazi persecution of the Jews, or the practice of labeling political opponents “Nazis.” Both seem to trivialize the memory of what is known as the Shoah, the Hebrew word for “catastrophe.”

But the Oct. 7 massacres perpetrated by Hamas changed our thinking.
Israeli identity and the Holocaust


Over the past 75 years, the collective memory of the Shoah has assumed a central place in Israeli national identity. The memory of the Holocaust has increasingly become the prism through which Israelis understand both their past and their present relationships with the Arab and Muslim world.

Israelis saw the Holocaust’s threat of annihilation echoed in many situations. In 1967, there was the waiting period before the Six-Day War, when the Egyptian leader Gamal Abdel Nasser threatened to “wipe Israel off the map.” It was there in the trauma of the Yom Kippur War in 1973 and the unexpected, simultaneous attacks by Egypt and Syria. When Israel destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in 1981, Prime Minister Menachem Begin justified it with the explanation that “there won’t be another Holocaust in history.”

This association has only strengthened in the past 40 years with the 1982 Lebanon war, two Palestinian uprisings, known as intifadas, and with the present threat posed by a nuclear Iran.

All these events evoke the memory of the Holocaust and are understood within the collective memory of threats of annihilation. This phenomenon represents, for many Israelis, an inability to separate their current situation from the vulnerability of the diaspora Jewish past. And this conflation of past and present continues to play a central role in Israeli politics, foreign policy and public discourse.

The frequent comparisons between the Oct. 7 massacres and the Shoah are more, we believe, than just the default associations of a people submerged in Holocaust postmemory, which refers to inherited and imagined memories of subsequent generations who did not personally experience the trauma. In seeking to describe the depths of evil they witnessed on Oct. 7, Israelis were making more than just an emotional connection between the Holocaust and the Oct. 7 massacres.

A protester holds a placard during a demonstration on Oct. 9 in London, outside of the prime minister’s residence. Photo by Vuk Valcic/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

To help explain the logic of that connection, specific and reasonable comparisons can be made to better understand Hamas’ traumatic and devastating massacre of Israelis. Below are a few of the many parallels:

1. Ideology and identification

Just as the Nazis aimed to annihilate the Jews, Hamas and affiliated terrorist organizations share the same objective: the destruction of Jews. The 1988 Hamas charter refers to “Jews” and not “Israelis” when calling for the destruction of these people.

While the 2017 Hamas covenant states that Hamas does not seek war with the Jews, but instead “wages a struggle against the Zionists who occupy Palestine,” the slaughter of Jews – many of whom were peace activists – in October has proven otherwise.

The national struggle of Hamas is predicated upon the conquest of land and elimination of the Jews. Hamas officials have subsequently promised to repeat Oct. 7 again and again until Israel is annihilated.

2. Indoctrination

While the racial antisemitism of the Nazi regime differs from the antisemitism employed in the fundamentalist Islamic version of Hamas, antisemitism is a key part of the struggle for both ideologies. Indoctrination from an early age aimed at the dehumanization of the Jews is a key part of both how Nazis taught young German students during the Third Reich and in how Hamas educates children in Gaza.

3. Methods of killing and survival


The horrors of Oct. 7 echo the brutal tactics Nazis used during the Holocaust, including not only murder but cruel humiliation of the victims. The testimonies of Oct. 7 survivors reveal the torture of parents and children, sometimes in front of each other, including rape and sexual violence, mocking and lingering in the murder process as the terrorists relished the atrocities they committed.

When the Jews in the Warsaw ghetto realized that the end was near, they worked for months to prepare hiding places for themselves in their homes and created improvised bunkers, doing whatever they could to avoid capture and deportation. They did not imagine that the Nazis would come to eliminate the ghetto in a different way, entering the ghetto with flamethrowers and burning down one building after another. Some Jews were burned alive, while others fled outside and fell into the hands of the Nazis.

On Oct. 7, victims in the kibbutzim and communities near Gaza hid in fortified safe rooms designed to protect them from rocket attacks. Hamas terrorists went from house to house, burning one after the other so that inhabitants would be forced to flee from their protected shelters. Others were burned in their homes.


Two hooded demonstrators burn a flag of Israel on the bridge linking Spain and France on Nov. 11, 2023. Javi Julio/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images
4. Using Jews in the killing process

On Oct. 7, Hamas terrorists took a hostage from Nahal Oz, one of the kibbutzim in the south, and forced him to go from house to house to knock on doors and lure his neighbors outside. Afterward, they murdered him. Holocaust scholars have described such episodes from World War II in which Jews were forced to cooperate as “choiceless choices.”

5. Terminology

The word Shoah is used in the Bible to describe danger from neighboring nations, signifying distress, pain, torment, calamity and a “day of destruction.” While it later came to define the total Nazi extermination of Jews in the 1940s, multiple testimonies collected from survivors of the Oct. 7 massacres use the term once again today, echoing the biblical definition, to signal a day of desolation, darkness, destruction and gloom.

The words used to describe events are often loaded with emotional associations; the power and meaning of words that attempt to convey the depths of traumatic experiences cannot be discounted.

Not the same

There is a difference between pointing out similarities and creating shallow comparisons. We are aware of the tendency, especially in the political sphere, to resort to simplistic, symbolic and performative comparisons to the Holocaust – such as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, Gilad Erdan, donning a yellow star with the words “Never Again” on Oct. 31.

Oct. 7 is not the same as the Holocaust. Even so, we can use the study of the Holocaust to understand the traumatic and devastating encounters between Hamas terrorists and their victims on Oct. 7.

It might be a trivialization of the Holocaust to simply label Hamas as the “new Nazis,” but our analysis reveals that recognizing their eliminationist antisemitism means there can be no return to the pre-Oct. 7 status quo, when Israel’s policy was to accommodate Hamas’ control of the Gaza strip.

Despite the natural tendency to turn away from the most shocking and the most horrific manifestations of human evil, there are times when gazes must not be averted, when horror must be confronted in order to understand the motivations of the perpetrators and the responses of the victims and the survivors.

In this case, at what point do we ignore analogies that seem deliberate and intentional? As Holocaust scholars, we recognize why Israelis are stuck – and struck – by the traumatic nature of Oct. 7.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.

It was written by: Avinoam Patt, University of Connecticut and Liat Steir-Livny, Sapir Academic College.


Read more:


Deadliest day for Jews since the Holocaust spurs a crisis of confidence in the idea of Israel – and its possible renewal


Jewish response to Hamas war criticism comes from deep sense of trauma, active grief and fea


How new reports reveal Israeli intelligence underestimated Hamas and other key weaknesses

John Joseph Chin, Carnegie Mellon University
Haleigh Bartos, Carnegie Mellon University

Thu, December 7, 2023 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, center, meets with his security cabinet on Oct. 7, 2023, the day of the Hamas attack. Haim Zach (GPO) / Handout/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images


After the surprise Hamas terrorist attack on Israel from the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, many observers were puzzled about how Israel could have been caught completely off-guard.

We were among those puzzled, and proposed three possible reasons:

Israeli leaders may have underestimated Hamas’ capabilities and misunderstood its intentions.


Israeli intelligence may have been tricked by Hamas’ secrecy, missing signs that it was planning and training.


Israeli intelligence leaders may have been so wedded to their prior conclusion that Hamas was not a major threat that they dismissed mounting evidence that it was preparing for war.

New revelations from recent media coverage have shed additional light on what happened, which mostly confirm the role of faulty threat assessments, Hamas’ improved operational security, and confirmation bias.
An official assessment

On Oct. 29, The New York Times reported that since May 2021, Israel’s military intelligence leaders and National Security Council had officially assessed that “Hamas had no interest in launching an attack from Gaza that might invite a devastating response from Israel.”

As a result, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and security leaders diverted attention and resources away from Hamas and toward what they saw as more existential threats: Iran and Hezbollah. For instance, in 2021, the Israeli military cut personnel and funding for Unit 8200, a key military surveillance unit watching Gaza. In 2022, the unit stopped listening in on Hamas militants’ radio communications, though it apparently gathered other intelligence.

The U.S. made a similar shift, focusing on the Islamic State group and other militants, leaving intelligence gathering on Hamas to Israel.
Revealing surveillance

Within days of Oct. 7, Egypt revealed that it had shared with Israel high-level warnings of impending Hamas violence – “something big.”

A Guardian report in early November revealed that Hamas leaders who had planned the attack took special measures to avoid being detected by Israeli intelligence, including passing orders only by word of mouth, rather than by radio or internet communication. But Hamas’ planning did not totally escape detection.

The Times of Israel reported in late October that Israeli troops of the Combat Intelligence Corps surveilling the Israel-Gaza border months before Oct. 7 saw Hamas militants digging holes, placing explosives, training frequently and even practicing blowing up a mock fence. Their warnings were ignored. The Financial Times reported in early November that Israeli security leaders had also ignored specific alerts of Hamas training exercises from civilian volunteers in southern Israel who eavesdropped on Hamas communications.

The Financial Times also reported that weeks before the Hamas attack, Israeli border guards sent a classified warning to the top military intelligence officer in the southern command. They had detected a high-ranking Hamas military commander overseeing rehearsals of hostage-taking and warned that Hamas was training to imminently “blow up border posts at several locations, enter Israeli territory and take over kibbutzim.” The officer who received the message dismissed it as an “imaginary scenario.” Other leaders considered the warning unremarkable.
A detailed plan

On Nov. 30, The New York Times reported that Israeli intelligence obtained a detailed Hamas plan of attack more than a year before Oct. 7. The plan ran to 40 pages and included specifics that actually were part of the attack, including an opening rocket barrage, drones knocking out security cameras and automated weapons at the border, and gunmen crossing into Israel in paragliders as well as on foot and by motorcycle.

The newspaper also reported that in July 2023, a Unit 8200 analyst observed Hamas training activities that lined up with the Hamas plan, which was code-named “Jericho Wall” by Israeli officials. The analyst determined that Hamas was preparing an attack designed to provoke a war with Israel. Superior officers dismissed her assessment, saying the “Jericho Wall” plan was only aspirational primarily because they thought Hamas lacked the capacity to carry it out.

Israel’s defenses include stations like this guard tower in the West Bank, with robotic weapons that can fire tear gas, stun grenades and sponge-tipped bullets, using artificial intelligence to track targets. AP Photo/Mahmoud Illean
A reflection on the Israeli intelligence community

These recent reports make clear that Israeli officials had enough intelligence to step up security. The fact that they did not suggests they may have dismissed all that evidence in favor of other information they had, which suggested Hamas was not interested in or capable of going to war with Israel.

But that may not have been the only problem. Recent studies point to increasing fissures in civil-military relations in Israel. For example, populist right-wing Israeli politicians in recent years have viewed senior intelligence officials with skepticism as potential leftist rivals, which could have led Netanyahu’s Likud government to be hostile to alternative viewpoints and various intelligence warnings on Hamas.

Although we cannot observe the extent of politicization among the senior Israeli intelligence ranks, the behavior of intelligence leaders who dismissed warnings prior to Oct. 7 is consistent with groupthink, a phenomenon that experts say may occur when social pressure, a leader’s influential position or self-censorship leads groups to express homogeneous views and make uniform – and usually poorer – decisions.

The fact that superiors ignored warnings from the Unit 8200 analyst and the Border Defense Corps is consistent with the idea that groupthink about Hamas’ capabilities and intentions led to confirmation bias dismissing Hamas as an imminent threat.

Some of the ignored intelligence analysts were young women, who have said they believe sexism could have been a reason male superiors ignored their warnings.

Another form of prejudice may also have been at play. Israel has focused intensely on its technological advantages over its enemies, assigning large numbers of personnel to electronic and cyber warfare units. Perhaps technological optimism, faith in what the Financial Times described as “aerial drones that eavesdrop on Gaza and the sensor-equipped fence that surrounds the strip,” won out. Maybe a reliance on technology led to a false sense of security, and even the dismissal of other forms of intelligence that, it turned out, had uncovered Hamas’ real plans.
A turn toward the future

In the wake of the Hamas attacks, Israel’s security apparatus will need to investigate these weaknesses further and undertake reforms. So far, it remains unclear how many people, and at what levels of the Israeli government, received the various warnings in advance of Oct. 7. Therefore, it’s not yet clear what specific changes in Israel might prevent a similar failure in the future.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and analysis to help you make sense of our complex world.

It was written by: John Joseph Chin, Carnegie Mellon University and Haleigh Bartos, Carnegie Mellon University.

Read more:


Hamas assault echoes 1973 Arab-Israeli war – a shock attack and questions of political, intelligence culpability


Reflections on hope during unprecedented violence in the Israel-Hamas war


'Concerned and afraid': Jews celebrate Hanukkah amid rise in hate

KIARA ALFONSECA
GMA
Thu, December 7, 2023


Hanukkah has taken on a new meaning this year for many in the Jewish community after Israel was attacked by terrorist group Hamas on Oct. 7.

More than 1,200 people in Israel were killed, and 6,900 others injured, according to Israeli officials. An estimated 236 people are said to have been taken hostage in the attack.

Israel has retaliated in a siege on Gaza, killing more than 15,900 people in Gaza and injuring 42,000 more, according to Gaza's Hamas-run Ministry of Health and the Hamas government media office.

Hanukkah, which translates to "dedication" and begins on Dec. 7 this year, is about a recommitment to the ideals of Judaism, according to New York City rabbi Diana Fersko. It honors the Jewish fighters who fought against Syrian armies to defend their religious beliefs in 164 BCE.

"Hanukkah is a story of survival against great odds," said Fersko, author of "We Need to Talk About Antisemitism." "It's about the Jewish people persevering even when our detractors seem overwhelming.

This year, Hanukkah will be celebrated amid a backdrop of growing tensions in the U.S. related to the Israel-Hamas conflict.

PHOTO: NYPD Officers respond to a bomb threat after a man called and stated he placed two backpacks filled with pipe bombs inside of the occupied Central Synagogue, Nov. 11, 2023, in New York. (Theodore Parisienne/NY Daily News via Getty Images)

Communities whose identities are tied to the conflict overseas -- Jews and Muslims, Israelis and Arabs -- have become targets of hate here in the United States.

Federal and local authorities are sounding the alarm about a rise in antisemitism and Islamophobia.

Jewish leaders say the holiday's history is an apt reminder of the ongoing effort to combat antisemitism and stand proud of their Jewish identity.

MORE: Harvard, NYC schools added to DOE probe on antisemitism, Islamophobia

While members of the community may feel cautious about putting menorahs in their windows or publicly celebrating this Hanukkah, Jewish Federations of North America President Eric Fingerhut says that embracing their Jewish heritage is "an act of strength and determination" in the face of hate.

"Our hope is that the Hanukkah lights will do for us what they've done in ancient times, that they will bring some light into this darkness and point us towards an end to this period and towards a brighter period," said Fingerhut. JFNA is an umbrella group of Jewish communal organizations around the United States.

PHOTO: A member of the New York Police Department patrols in front of a synagogue, Oct. 13, 2023, in New York. (Stephanie Keith/Getty Images)

The threat of hate

The Jewish community has seen an increase in vandalism, threats, violence and other crimes across the country.

The growing number of incidents come with a backdrop of the longstanding warning from officials in recent years about a rise in antisemitic sentiment in the mainstream.

The Department of Homeland Security earlier urged Jewish leaders to be cautious of individuals who have been "incited to violence by an ideology of hate."

Authorities have not identified any specific plots linked to Hanukkah, but have also warned of "renewed calls for attacks against Jewish individuals and targets" by foreign terror groups and domestic violent extremists, according to a recent threat assessment obtained by ABC News.

Jewish organizations and institutions say they will heed these warnings, but that security precautions have long been in place to protect their communities. Antisemitism has been a constant threat that's been appearing to grow in the mainstream in recent years, according to federal officials.

The ongoing conflict has only led groups to further escalate their security needs.

Experts at the Jewish security organization Secure Community Network said in a Dec. 5 hearing that people are "concerned and afraid."

In an online briefing, they urged community leaders to coordinate with local law enforcement for large events and public gatherings, as well as create plans in anticipation of any potential problems that may arise.

This can look like limiting access to events through ticketing, conducting pre-event surveys of the location regarding best exit procedures, radio dispatches with private security guards, and more.

MORE: The Israel-Hamas war has college campuses on edge. How some are tackling the issue.

Tough conversations this holiday season

As families gather to celebrate, conversations about the conflict, Israel's response to the Hamas attack, and its impact on antisemitism in the U.S. may arise. But community leaders say Jewish institutions are no stranger to difficult conversations.

Some groups like the Jewish Federations of North America say they stand with Israel's actions "to restore the safety and security of its boundaries, of its borders" following the attack, Fingerhut said.

"Of course, there are disagreements as there always are, but I've actually never seen the Jewish community more united," Fingerhut said, pointing to the March for Israel that he says garnered almost 300,000 attendees.


PHOTO: In an undated stock photo, a couple is seen lighting a menorah. (STOCK PHOTO/Getty Images)

Others, like Jewish Voice for Peace and IfNotNow, are calling for a permanent ceasefire between Israel and Palestinian territories and an end to what they say are oppressive Israeli policies against Palestinian people that have caused a humanitarian crisis.

Stefanie Fox, executive director of the progressive anti-Zionist group Jewish Voice for Peace, said that when she lights her candles on the menorah with her family, she too is aware of the increase in violence against the many groups connected to the conflict.

"As I do that with my son, I'm going to be talking about how we are both proudly displaying our Jewish heritage and also proudly displaying our commitment to fighting for a world where everybody is safe in their home," said Fox.

Community leaders say that communities have been having many tough conversations about the conflict and the aftermath since it began.

Fox urges community members to connect with others across lines of disagreements and differences, and to "start from a place of shared values and see if you can build toward a vision of a very different future than the bloodshed we're seeing today."

Fersko calls synagogues "a place of urgent moral conversation," a reputation expected to hold up amid Hanukkah celebrations.

"I think the Jewish community is actually very strong in having open dialogue with each other and being there for each other and strategizing together," Fersko said.

She continued, "There is this sense that we're celebrating Hanukkah with a spirit of defiance."

ABC News' Aaron Katersky and Josh Margolin contributed to this report.

'Concerned and afraid': Jews celebrate Hanukkah amid rise in hate originally appeared on abcnews.go.com
Unraveling Palestine: Understanding Its Location and the Palestinian Identity
Taija Perry Cook
Fri, December 8, 2023 

Getty Images

On Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas launched an attack on Israeli communities outside of Gaza, killing 1,200 civilians and soldiers and taking about 240 people hostage. In response, Israel has killed more than 16,000 Palestinians, as of this writing. A Hamas spokesperson told Al Jazeera that the attack was in response to "all the atrocities the Palestinians have faced over the decades," and that the international community needed to "stop atrocities in Gaza, against Palestinian people, [and] our holy sites like Al-Aqsa. All these things are the reason behind starting this battle." Given the complex history and confusion often surrounding the topic of Palestine, we've answered a few basic questions below. As always, we appreciate our readers' participation and feedback.

The Palestinian Territories, located in the Levant region of the Middle East, consist of the West Bank and Gaza, including East Jerusalem, and have historically included present-day Israel. Before Israel's statehood, Muslim, Christian, and Jewish Palestinians lived across the region for generations.

Prior to 1948, Palestine was held under a British mandate after England seized the region from the Ottoman Empire during World War I. Throughout the British Mandate, which officially lasted from 1920 to 1947, Jewish immigration to Palestine surged as the brutality of the Holocaust forced Jews across Europe to seek refuge.

The land of Palestine has been diminished dramatically since 1948, when armed Zionist militias – with the help of Great Britain – forcibly claimed the homes and possessions of approximately 750,000 Palestinians in an event known in Arabic as the Nakba, or “catastrophe.” Israel considers this same event, which took place on May 15, 1948, to be Israel’s Day of Independence.

Following the Nakba, Palestinians across present-day Israel were made refugees, with many seeking safety in the West Bank and Gaza. However, many more fled beyond historic Palestine and into neighboring Arab countries, such as Jordan, Syria, Egypt and beyond. Today, approximately 7 million Palestinians live across the diaspora outside of historic Palestine.


( Getty Images)

The West Bank, surrounded by present-day Israel and bordering Jordan, is home to nearly 3 million Palestinians. They live alongside the more than 700,000 Israelis who have broken international law – as per the Fourth Geneva Convention – by settling in the West Bank.

Gaza, a narrow strip of land on the Mediterranean coast, is one of the most densely populated areas of the world with nearly 2.2 million inhabitants, almost half of whom are children. About 78% of the Gazan population are refugees or descendants of refugees.

While the majority of nations today recognize Israel as a legitimate state, others continue to refer to the entirety of historic Palestine as “Palestine,” and not Israel. As of 2012, Palestine has a non-member observer state status in the U.N.; it is only one of two states with such status along with the Vatican City. While non-member observer states are able to speak at General Assembly meetings, they are not able to vote on resolutions.

Palestinians are a diverse and complex group indigenous to the land of Palestine; a community that carries with it a rich legacy of cultural, linguistic, and symbolic identity. Palestinian national identity has been shaped in many ways by Israeli occupation.


Palestinian mother and child, 1920. Photo by Khalil Raad. (Image via Wikimedia Commons.)

The majority of Palestinians are Muslim, although a significant Christian minority exists alongside other religious minorities.

Within present-day Israel, at least 20% of the population identifies as Palestinian or Arab, the majority of whose families were not killed or forced to flee their homes in 1948. While these citizens of Israel maintain the right to vote, Palestinians within Israel have long expressed that their existence is one of second-class citizenship within a web of systemic discrimination.
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Impressive Milestones Achieved on Chinese Advanced Nuclear Power Projects

Aaron Larson
Thu, December 7, 2023

China National Nuclear Corp. (CNNC) announced on Dec. 6 that China’s independently developed high-temperature gas-cooled modular pebble bed (HTR-PM) reactor demonstrator had commenced commercial operation. The HTR-PM project was constructed at a site in Rongcheng, Shandong Province (Figure 1), roughly midway between Beijing and Shanghai in eastern China. Touted as “the world’s first commercially operational modular nuclear power plant with fourth-generation nuclear technology,” the achievement marks an important milestone, transitioning the technology from experiments to the commercial market.



1. Built on a site near Shidao Bay, also known as Shidaowan, the HTR-PM is the world’s first fourth-generation nuclear design to enter commercial operation. Courtesy: CNNC[/caption] Construction of the pioneering project began in December 2012, led by China Huaneng (which holds a 47.5% stake in the demonstration), along with CNNC subsidiary China Nuclear Engineering Corp. (CNEC, 32.5%), and Tsinghua University’s Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology (INET, 20%). Chinergy, a joint venture between Tsinghua and CNEC, served as the engineering, procurement, and construction contractor for the nuclear island. The HTR-PM features two small reactors, each with a capacity of 250 MWth. The reactors use helium as the coolant and graphite as the moderator. Each reactor is loaded (Figure 2) with more than 400,000 spherical fuel elements, or pebbles, each 60 millimeters in diameter, which is roughly the size of a tennis ball. Each pebble contains about seven grams of uranium fuel enriched to 8.5%. 



2. Fuel loading at the Shidaowan HTR-PM in China began in the spring of 2021. It involved putting 870,000 spherical TRISO fuel elements into the two small reactors that will drive a single 210-MWe turbine. Courtesy: CNNC[/caption] Heat from the reactor produces steam in a steam generator. Tsinghua has reported helium temperatures at the reactor core inlet run about 250C, while outlet temperatures reach about 750C. Steam at 13.25 Megapascal (MPa) and 567C is produced at the steam generator outlet. The steam is used to drive a single steam turbine connected to a 210-MWe generator. The demonstration project was first connected to the grid on Dec. 20, 2021. Significant testing has been done since that time to validate operation and demonstrate acceptability. CNNC said the HTR-PM design has broad applications in various fields including power generation and combined heat and power. It noted advantages include high safety, power generation efficiency, and environmental adaptability. Tsinghua has said more than 30 years of continuous research, conducted by hundreds of Tsinghua scientists, has gone into the project. Developers stepped from the basic research of key technologies, to a 10-MW experimental reactor (HTR-10) built at an INET site, and finally to the demonstration project that is now in commercial operation at Shidaowan. Notably, Tsinghua said 93.4% of the equipment used in the final HTR-PM project was manufactured domestically.
Linglong One SMR Milestone

Meanwhile, China also is leading the nuclear industry forward with construction of the world’s first multipurpose small modular reactor (SMR) demonstration project, known as Linglong One. The unit is sited in southern China on the island of Hainan. In November, CNNC announced the top head of the steel containment vessel for the unit was hoisted into place, signaling commencement of the peak phase of internal installation. The Linglong One project began construction at the Changjiang Nuclear Power Plant on July 13, 2021. Linglong One, also known as the ACP100 design, is a multipurpose pressurized water reactor design developed by CNNC following more than 10 years of independent research and development. CNNC has called it “another significant achievement of independent innovation after Hualong One, CNNC’s third-generation nuclear power technology.” In 2016, the Linglong One design became the first SMR to pass a safety review by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Each Linglong One unit has a generating capacity of 125 MW. The demonstration project is wholly owned by CNNC’s China National Nuclear Power. CNNC has said the design and construction of Linglong One are revolutionary and groundbreaking. Modular construction is its most prominent feature. On Aug. 10 this year, the core module of the Linglong One reactor was lifted and placed in the nuclear island (Figure 3). The pressure vessel, evaporator, and other key equipment were installed in one step. Through standardized design, single module production, and mass production, the construction period is shortened and costs reduced, while improving safety, the company said. The small size and simplified system make the SMR convenient for transportation and operation. 



3. The Linglong One core module is shown here being lifted for installation into the plant’s containment building. Courtesy: CNNC[/caption] In addition to generating electricity, CNNC said the Linglong One can also be used for seawater desalination, and heating or cooling, among other useful purposes. The company envisions it serving as self-contained energy sources for parks, islands, mining areas, and high-energy-consuming enterprises.

 —Aaron Larson is POWER’s executive editor (@POWERmagazine). POWER Senior Associate Editor Sonal Patel contributed to this article.
Cop28 is a farce rigged to fail, but there are other ways we can try to save the planet

The Guardian
Opinion
George Monbiot
Sat, 9 December 2023 

Photograph: Dominika Zarzycka/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Let’s face it: climate summits are broken. The delegates talk and talk, while Earth systems slide towards deadly tipping points. Since the climate negotiations began in 1992 more carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels has been released worldwide than in all preceding human history. This year is likely to set a new emissions record. They are talking us to oblivion.

Throughout these Conference of the Parties (Cop) summits, fossil fuel lobbyists have swarmed the corridors and meeting rooms. It’s like allowing weapons manufacturers to dominate a peace conference. This year, the lobbyists outnumber all but one of the national delegations. And they’re not the only ones: Cop28 is also heaving with meat and livestock lobbyists and reps from other planet-trashing industries. What should be the most important summit on Earth is treated like a trade fair.

It’s not surprising that the two decisive measures these negotiations should have delivered at the outset – agreements to leave fossil fuels in the ground and to end most livestock farming – have never featured in the final outcome of any Cop summit. Nor should we be astonished that these agreements favour non-solutions such as carbon capture and storage, whose sole purpose is to provide an excuse for inaction.


The appointment of Sultan Al Jaber as president of Cop28 could be seen as this fiasco’s denouement. His day job is chief executive of the United Arab Emirates’ state oil company, Adnoc. Adnoc is now planning a massive expansion of its oil and gas operations. Before the meetings began, Al Jaber was planning to use them as a lobbying opportunity to sell his company’s products to delegates. In arguing with people calling for more effective action, he recited classic fossil fuel industry tropes, including that old favourite: if we were to phase out fossil fuels, we’d go back to living in caves. Fossil fuels present the real threat to civilisation. There have been some uninspiring presidents of the international climate summits, but none so manifestly unsuited to the role.

Perhaps it’s unsurprising that, of 27 summits completed so far, 25 have been abject failures, while two (1997’s Kyoto protocol and the Paris agreement, in 2015) have been half-successes. If any other process had a 3.7% success rate, it would be abandoned in favour of something better. But the world’s governments carry on doing the same thing in the expectation of different results. You could almost imagine they wanted to fail.

The first and most obvious reform is to shut out the lobbyists. But the fossil fuel lobby, grotesque as it is, is by no means the only problem with the way these jamborees are run. The process itself is terminally crocked.

The only global negotiations that are organised like the climate summits are other environmental summits, such as the UN biodiversity conferences. When states want something to happen – trade agreements, for example – they use different methods. The failure of the Cop meetings is baked in. In 1994, Saudi Arabia, backed by other members of the oil cartel Opec, insisted that all general decisions must be made by consensus. Because this question was never resolved, the UN’s rules on decision-making remain in draft form.

The result is that the oil states got what they wanted, by default. What “consensus” means is that every nation has a veto: 198 delegates can agree to a measure, but it can be blocked by the 199th. The most lethal interests prevail, by design. The only way such impasses can be resolved is by a determined president “gavelling” decisions through: insisting that a consensus has been reached and hoping no one calls their bluff. It’s not easy to picture Al Jaber playing this role.

Since this horrible farce began 31 years ago, plenty of people have proposed reforms. The proposals fall into three categories. One is to improve the way consensus decisions are made. Well-meaning as these are, they’re futile: you can tweak the process, but it will remain dysfunctional.

Another approach is to replace consensus decision-making with voting, an option that remains, in draft form, in the UN rules. The obvious objection is that a majority would impose decisions on other nations. But this reflects a narrow conception of what voting could do. There are plenty of ways of ensuring everyone can be heard, without relying on crude binary choices. One of the most promising is the Borda count, a decision-making method first proposed in 1435.

The modified Borda count developed by the de Borda Institute looks especially useful. First, the delegates agree on what the principal issues are. These are then turned into a list of options, on which everyone is asked to agree (the options could range from the immediate phase-out of fossil fuels to planetary Armageddon). The options are listed on a ballot paper, and each delegate is asked to rank them in order of preference. A scoring system awards points for every ranking. The more options a delegate ranks, the more points each one is worth to them. This enables complex decisions to be made without excluding anyone.

The third approach, which could run alongside the second, is to bypass the Cop process by developing new binding treaties. The professor of environmental politics Anthony Burke suggests an approach modelled on the 2017 treaty on the prohibition of nuclear weapons, the 1997 anti-personnel mine ban convention and the 2008 convention on cluster munitions. In these cases, states and citizens’ groups frustrated with a lack of progress began building treaties without the participation of the powerful nations – the US in particular – that sought to resist them. They developed enough momentum not only to push the treaties through the UN general assembly, but also to establish new diplomatic norms that made defiance of the treaties much harder to justify, even for nations that refuse to ratify them.

Burke proposes treaties on deforestation and the elimination of coal, and a stronger version of the fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty that others have developed. He suggests that if they don’t immediately gain the support of the general assembly, they can begin as regional treaties, establishing, for example, deforestation-free zones. He argues that these treaties should be folded into an overarching greenhouse convention, supported by an International Climate Agency, modelled on the International Atomic Energy Agency.

However we do it, we need to break the power of the Earth-devouring industries before they break us. Otherwise, we will keep watching as yet another year is wasted, yet another of our last chances scorches and shrivels. Soon, there will be no years left.

George Monbiot is a Guardian columnist
Supermarkets must ensure products don’t contribute to illegal deforestation, says Steve Barclay

Emma Gatten
Sat, 9 December 2023

Palm oil in products will only be allowed under the new legislation if it is from trees that have been legally felled - SAMSUL SAID/BLOOMBERG

Supermarkets will be forced to ensure that products on their shelves do not contribute to illegal deforestation, the environment secretary will announce today.

Steve Barclay will say palm oil, cocoa, beef, leather and soy products will be covered by the legislation, in an attempt to stop British products contributing to deforestation, in a speech at the Cop28 climate conference in Dubai.

Agricultural expansion causes an area the size of the UK to be ploughed up each year to meet British demand for products.


“I find it heart-rending to see the way illegal deforestation is destroying the habitats of tigers, jaguars, orangutans and many other endangered species, and I know many people across the world feel the same,” Mr Barclay said.

“It’s why we are cleaning up supply chains to make sure that big businesses in the UK aren’t responsible for illegal deforestation.

“It also means shoppers can be confident that the money they spend is part of the solution, rather than part of the problem.”

The legislation was first introduced in the 2021 Environment Act, but could not be enforced until the Government had laid out the products to which it would apply.

Green groups have said the laws do not go far enough because they only cover illegal deforestation.

Some 70 per cent of deforestation for global products is illegal, but there is little understanding of where goods on British shelves come from.
Clean up supply chains

Several supermarkets have already vowed to clean up their supply chains to stop illegal deforestation for products such as soy.

Under the new legislation, businesses that have a global annual turnover of £50 million and use over 500 tonnes of regulated commodities a year will be banned from using them if sourced from land used illegally.

These businesses will also be required to undertake a due diligence exercise on their supply chains and to report annually.

Tanya Steel, CEO of WWF, which has pushed for the legislation, said it was “an important first step to getting illegal deforestation off UK shopping shelves.”

“However illegal deforestation is only part of the picture – with wildlife numbers plummeting and wild habitats facing destruction, we must stop felling forests, full stop,” she said. “Forests absorb 30% of the carbon we emit from burning fossil fuels, so nature is clearly our greatest ally in tackling climate change.”

Major food companies ‘acting like Big Tobacco’ by selling addictive and harmful products

Laura Donnelly
Sat, 9 December 2023

A study in 2017 found that poor diet was responsible for 10.9 million deaths globally in 2017, compared with eight million for tobacco - E+/SOLSTOCK

Processed food manufacturers pose as big a risk to public health as tobacco companies, a leading food expert has claimed.

Dr Chris van Tulleken, associate professor at University College London, said the mass-produced food industry was acting in a similar way to Big Tobacco firms by selling addictive products which could be harmful.

He claimed major food companies were putting the pursuit of profits above public health, especially when marketing snacks and processed foods to children.

“These companies are using the same techniques as tobacco firms to create and then market addictive food, especially to children,” he said. “Poor diet has overtaken tobacco as the leading cause of death globally – and poor diet means an ultra-processed diet.”

Ultra-processed foods go through multiple processes during manufacturing, are often high in salt and sugar, and contain additives, emulsifiers and preservatives.

They are typically lacking in fibre and nutrients but are high in calories.

Most junk food is ultra-processed, including ready meals, frozen pizzas, shop-bought cakes and potato-based snacks. But many foods which have traditionally been considered “healthy” are also ultra-processed, including supermarket sliced bread, “low fat” and “diet” foods and drinks, and packaged snacks aimed at preschool children.

Speaking at the Unicef UK Baby Friendly Initiative Conference in Harrogate last month, Dr van Tulleken said: “We have a real crisis of industrialised, processed foods being marketed to children… We are sure that these foods have addictive properties for both children and adults.”

Dr van Tulleken, who is the author of Ultra-Processed People, described ultra-processed food as “food made with the cheapest possible ingredients which is made with the purpose of generating money for an institutional investor”.

Poor diet a bigger killer

An analysis of deaths in 195 countries, published in The Lancet in 2019, found poor diet is now responsible for more deaths worldwide than tobacco.

The study, led by the US-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, found poor diet was responsible for 10.9 million deaths globally in 2017, compared with eight million for tobacco.

Tobacco companies have a long history of interest in mass-produced foods.

American cigarette makers Philip Morris and R J Reynolds owned some of the world’s biggest food manufacturers, including General Foods, Kraft and Nabisco, from the 1980s to the mid-2000s, during which time there was a surge in worldwide consumption of ultra-processed foods.

The companies – now merged as Kraft Heinz – continue to sell Heinz baby food and snacks, as well as popular brands like Heinz beans, Philadelphia cheese spread and Capri-Sun drinks.

“It’s not just that these [food manufacturers] are comparable to tobacco companies, they were the tobacco companies,” Dr van Tulleken added. “The tobacco industry used its knowledge about flavour and marketing to create and market addictive food, especially to children.”

Healthier choices

A spokesperson for the Food and Drink Federation, which represents the food industry, said: “Processing allows us to make the safe, delicious and nutritious food and drink enjoyed by households across the country each day and ensures consumers have a range of choice on the supermarket shelves with products at every price point… Over a number of years, we have invested a great deal in changing the recipes of our products to remove fat, sugar and salt and to add more fibre, fruit and vegetables. We’ve also reduced portion sizes and launched new, healthier products.”

The Department for Health and Social Care said it had introduced calorie labelling in restaurants and required pre-packaged foods to carry “a variety of information to aid shoppers – including a list of ingredients and nutritional data”.

A government spokesperson said: “We are taking strong action to encourage healthier food choices and to tackle obesity – recognising that it is the second biggest cause of cancer and costs the NHS around £6.5 billion a year – while respecting the importance of individual choice.”


UK Employers watering down private healthcare perk as NHS backlog soars


James Fitzgerald
Fri, 8 December 2023 

Healthcare perks are being watered down

Employers are watering down private healthcare perks after premiums rose by 60pc due to NHS delays.

Firms are removing dependent cover from policies, asking staff to ‘co-pay’ on claims and in some cases restricting cancer support to reduce the cost of delivering the workplace benefit, according to consultancy firms.

Insurers paid out a record of nearly £3bn in claims last year, the Association of British Insurers said, as NHS backlogs caused a growing number of employees to use their workplace scheme for the first time.

The increase has led to premiums rising by between 20pc and 60pc and piling more cost on their employers who pay for the schemes.


Luke James, of health insurance consultancy Mercer Marsh Benefits, said: “Twenty per cent rises in premiums is on the low end of the cost rises. Our figures show that we are seeing 40pc to 60pc premium rises in the UK and across Europe. It’s huge, and we don’t expect much to change in 2024.

“All of this is driving up costs for employers [who offer private health cover]. I think the issue we have is that it is the No1-valued employee benefit, so it isn’t something an employer can decide not to offer anymore. If a member of staff is unwell, employers need their employees to get better and back to work.”

Mr James said to manage costs, employers are instead limiting the cover or asking employees to ‘co-pay’ on claims.

“They are also removing some treatments from the cover but these are short-term quick wins that are not sustainable for employers,” he added.

In eyecare alone, 640,000 people are in the queue for an NHS appointment or treatment, according to analysis by the Association of Optometrists, leaving them at risk of going blind. The average wait time is over a year.

According to research publication Corporate Adviser Intelligence, there were 60,995 British businesses covered by the country’s biggest insurers at the end of 2022, including Canada Life and Aviva, a 5.2pc jump year-on-year.

The employer typically pays for the cover but, in some cases, employees pay the excess if a procedure, care, or treatment is above an agreed threshold. The cost of insurance depends on age, risk, and health - with a comprehensive policy costing around £25 a month for a 20-year-old, and more than £150 for someone in their 80s.

Rachel Western, of consultancy firm Aon, said some businesses are removing dependent cover, which is common for workplace health policies, to save some money.

“We are seeing clients considering the longer term impact of premium rises, so conversations we have with clients are looking at lots of ways to limit cost in the future,” she said.

According to Ms Western, these cuts to employee health benefits include adding in excesses, reducing outpatient cover, restricting cancer benefits to avoid some high-cost exposures, restricting network options and looking at who the benefit covers – if this should be restricted or managed.

She said: “Private medical care has always been a high spend for workplaces but we are heading towards a place where private health cover is becoming one of the biggest costs in a workplace budget.

“The big risk is if that moves into these people getting more treatment and higher costs then these [workplace] schemes are going to potentially become unaffordable for corporate businesses, or a large part of their annual budget.

“There are three main ways a corporation can reduce costs on a private health scheme: cover people for less, or make people healthier – focus on preventative medicine and health and wellbeing strategies – and some element of contributions [from employees].

“Also, there is a lot of dependent cover in place [in workplace schemes], that could become something that corporates look at [cutting]. Scrapping these options will not be seen well by employees and businesses need to weigh up whether these benefits are affordable – and how they offer them.”
UK
Lorry driver strikes threaten Christmas food shortages at Asda

Daniel Woolfson
Fri, 8 December 2023

A woman pushes a shopping cart at an Asda superstore at the Gateshead Metrocentre, in Gateshead

Asda is facing walkouts from lorry drivers over Christmas in a fresh blow to the supermarket’s billionaire owners, the Issa brothers.

Around 80 lorry drivers at the retail giant’s operations hub in Rochdale are plotting strike action over the festive break.

Union chiefs at Unite said the industrial action, which is due to take place across several dates in December and on January 2, could lead to shortages of chilled foods on supermarket shelves.

The workers, who are employed by the supply chain company Wincanton, have argued they are being paid £1.24 an hour less than counterparts doing the same role at a different Asda facility in Lutterworth.

They also claim to be receiving lower rates for overtime, as well as for night, weekend and bank holiday shifts.

The workers in Lutterworth are employed directly by Asda.

It is understood Asda plans to use its own drivers on days the strikes take place to limit disruption.

The threat of shortages comes as traditional supermarkets like Asda prepare for festive competition with discounters Aldi and Lidl, which have acquired market share during the cost of living crisis.

Asda’s market share has fallen to 13.4pc in November, according to recent Kantar data, down from 14.2pc in January of this year.

Difficulties retaining customers have coincided with political scrutiny over Mohsin and Zuber Issa’s ownership of Asda, as the brothers have faced questions over high levels of debt and complex business structures.

Mohsin and Zuber Issa have come under scrutiny as a result of the complex corporate governance structures they employ - on Super / Alamy Stock Photo

MPs have quizzed the Issas over whether billions of pounds in borrowings could prevent them from offering lower prices for consumers as inflation eases.

Over the past year, the Issa brothers have been scrambling to pay down debts by selling off assets across their sprawling empire, which includes fast food chain Leon and petrol forecourts business EG Group.

Unite regional officer Paul Lomax said: “Asda shoppers will be disappointed that shelves could run bare during the festive period, but this is entirely the fault of Wincanton and Asda for denying our members pay parity.

“Strike action can only be avoided if Wincanton makes a vastly improved offer, the ball is now firmly in its court.”

A spokesman for Asda said: “These negotiations are between Wincanton and Unite and we would encourage them to reach an agreement that is acceptable to both parties.

“We employ a large number of Asda delivery-driver colleagues who deliver to our stores every day and we are confident that customers will be able to get everything they need in store to enjoy a wonderful Christmas.”

A Wincanton spokesperson said: “We can confirm that we are currently in constructive talks with Unite and Asda to find a solution which is satisfactory for all parties based at our site in Rochdale. We have made a competitive offer which we hope is accepted, and which is currently under consideration by Unite and its members.”
UK
Claire Coutinho hands £30m to US mini-nuke project rivalling Rolls-Royce


Howard Mustoe
Fri, 8 December 2023

Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has awarded Florida based Holtec the government funding - Chris J. Ratcliffe/Bloomberg

Energy Secretary Claire Coutinho has handed £30m in government funding to a US designer of mini-nuclear reactors which plans to accelerate operations in the UK.

Holtec, based in Florida, has been competing with Rolls-Royce and other companies to secure taxpayer backing to explore low-carbon energy sources.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are seen as a potential supplier of green energy to rival wind farms and solar energy.

They are smaller than full-size nuclear power plants and can be factory-built, cutting costs through mass production.

Holtec is developing a reactor that can be cooled in an emergency without external power.

A single 160MW Holtec reactor will occupy six hectares, the equivalent of 10 football pitches, making it suitable for industrial sites.

The firm’s main business comes from selling equipment to manage spent nuclear fuel.


Nuclear Minister Andrew Bowie said the Government is rapidly expanding Britain's nuclear power capacity - Geoff Pugh

Nuclear Minister Andrew Bowie said: “As the Government that revitalised the UK nuclear industry, committing public funds to nuclear for the first time in a generation, we’re rapidly expanding our nuclear power capacity to move towards a cleaner energy mix and help deliver net zero.”

Holtec and Rolls-Royce are up against French state-owned power producer EDF, US designer NuScale Power, Westinghouse Electric Company and GE-Hitachi in bidding for SMR orders from the UK.

NuScale, which already has design approval in the US for its model, was dealt a blow last month when its maiden deal to build six plants in Utah collapsed.

Depending on its size and design, the price of an SMR could start at $100m, rather than the tens of billions that traditional nuclear power stations cost.

Hinkley Point C in Somerset was estimated to cost around £26bn in 2015, for example, but could now end up costing £33bn, according to latest estimates.

Tom Greatrex, chief executive of the Nuclear Industry Association, said: “This funding shows the UK is committed to its new nuclear programme which needs to be rolled out at pace and at scale to ensure we ramp up nuclear so we can deliver clean power for net zero and good, green jobs for our communities.
Sunak’s North Sea drilling plan is purely ‘symbolic’, says former BP chief

Jonathan Leake
Sat, 9 December 2023 

Rishi Sunak’s planned expansion was little more than a political gesture, says Lord Browne - Simon Dawson/Bloomberg

Former BP chief Lord Browne has said Rishi Sunak’s decision to expand North Sea drilling is “not going to make any difference” to Britain’s energy security and is “symbolic”.

Lord Browne, who is now among Rishi Sunak’s lead scientific advisors, said he was “surprised” by the Prime Minister’s decision to grant new licences to drill in the North Sea annually.

Speaking in Dubai, where he has been attending the Cop28 climate talks, Lord Browne declared that the UK continental shelf was dying as an oil and gas resource and suggested Mr Sunak’s planned expansion was little more than a political gesture.

He told The Telegraph: “I’ve always thought that most of the North Sea and [the Atlantic] West of Shetland is at the end of its exploration life. So I was quite surprised at this plan. It’s a bit more symbolic, I think, than real.

“Someone wants to make a point that there’s freedom of choice here. It’s not going to make any difference in terms of the volumes found, and even in carbon dioxide produced if it’s used.”

North Sea drillers face not just dwindling supplies, but also a deeply unstable political environment. The last two years alone have seen offshore taxes raised from 40pc to 75pc, with Labour promising more to come should it win the coming election.

Lord Browne suggested that the UK’s offshore operators are now just planning to make as much money as they can and then quit.

“This is not an industry that is going to invest the same amount of money every year… People recognize that when governments become unreliable, that will stem the investment.

“And if there is nothing left to do [no remaining oil and gas], then people will naturally say fine – now we’re in the endgame. Let’s just take as much money as we can.”

Industry disagrees, with Mike Tholen of Offshore Energies UK suggesting the North Sea is the “foundation of energy security” and the platform on which to build a renewable sector.

However, Lord Browne’s comments carry weight given his reputation as arguably BP’s more influential former chief executive.

They are even more striking given Lord Browne’s current role as chair of the Government’s Council for Science and Technology – a group of the UK’s most senior scientists appointed to advise Rishi Sunak. On this issue, however, they appear not to have been consulted.

Lord Browne led BP between 1995 and 2007 during a period of fossil fuel expansion so successful that he became known as the industry’s “sun king”. However, the 75-year-old no longer regards himself as an “oil and gas man”, instead arguing he is now focused on investing in green energy.

“I stepped down as chief executive of BP in 2007. But even while I was with BP, I was trying to say, actually, energy is changing.

“I’ve been migrating, I would say, over the last 16 years, into an investor that invests in climate change. I don’t feel like an oil and gas person.”

That declaration may surprise his former colleagues, many of whom remain at BP.

Lord Browne’s links with oil and gas go back to his childhood when his father was an executive at Anglo-Persian Oil, now BP, and the family lived in Iran. His book, Beyond Business, describes how seeing a giant fire raging after a 1958 oil well blowout is what inspired him to enter the industry.

In 1966, as a graduate physicist, the then John Browne followed his father to BP, taking on exploration and production roles all over the world before eventually running BP’s exploration division.

He has overseen the discovery and extraction of billions of barrels of oil and gas – but that, he says, is now all over.

“We have to do something about climate change.”

His Damascene conversion began at BP with a controversial attempt to rebrand the company as “Beyond Petroleum”. BP managers tend to get embarrassed about the rebrand now but the underlying aim – of evolving the company for a post-fossil fuel era – has survived multiple leadership changes.

Lord Browne said this is because the science on climate change has become ever more convincing.

“We are dealing with something which is most likely to be an existential threat for humanity. Unless we alter our path, the world’s temperature by 2100 will be 3C higher than today.

“It changes where people can live, where you can grow crops, and living conditions for so many people, probably in a fatal way. The obvious answer is to stop putting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.”

So far, there is zero sign of that happening. Annual global greenhouse gas emissions have risen from the equivalent of 33 billion tonnes of CO2 in 1990 – the Cop conference’s benchmark year – to 54 billion tonnes last year with no sign of a decline.

Some see the UN’s annual conferences as simply creating the pretence of action where none exists to soothe an increasingly concerned public.

The conferences are now huge – Lord Browne is among 70,000 people attending the Dubai meeting. Leaks to the BBC included claims that UAE officials planned to use the conference as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals.

If Cop really is about tackling fossil fuel emissions, won’t future generations see it as the UN’s greatest failure?

Lord Browne counters: “It’s easy to say these UN Cop conferences are just useless talking shops… but some of them do achieve something. I think the one in Paris did achieve something by setting targets for nations. Whether we reach the targets is a different question.”

The Paris talks in 2015 saw 196 countries sign up to a legally binding agreement to limit global warming to no more than 2C, with the ambition of keeping it below 1.5C. In practice, it would mean greenhouse gas emissions peaking by 2025 at the latest and declining 43pc by 2030. There is no sign of either target being reached.

Oil and gas companies including BP that have sought to focus more on renewable energy have subsequently shifted back to oil and gas.

Lord Browne admits the dilemma. “These publicly listed companies have shareholders who look at the returns available right now. They are doing exactly what the signals from the investors are leaving them to do, which is to maximise returns based on their skills.”

Oil and gas companies are always likely to choose pleasing investors over saving the planet, he believes, so it is down to governments to create the rules and incentives to cut emissions. They are doing spectacularly badly, he thinks.

“I think the world has failed. I wouldn’t blame the Cop talks – they are just a set of meetings, a conference. But the world has failed because it has not figured out the right incentives to persuade people to reduce greenhouse gases.”

Lord Browne left BP in 2007 after making false statements to a UK court after a British tabloid “outed” him as gay. Lord Browne has called the incident a “such a bad error of judgment”.

However, all these years later the people and policies he brought in are still guiding the company today.

Tony Hayward, who was mentored by Lord Browne as his successor, had his tenure ended early by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon disaster. Next was Bob Dudley, another executive promoted by Lord Browne.

Mr Dudley stepped down in 2020 and was replaced by Bernard Looney, another of Lord Browne’s favourites. He was forced out after failing to reveal details of his relationships with multiple colleagues. Interim chief executive, Murray Auchincloss, was also a Lord Browne protege.

What’s striking is that all four have broadly followed the “beyond petroleum” path laid out by Lord Browne two decades ago.

What advice does he have for BP now? “I think they need to recognize that there are many voices out there, and that they need to not be arrogant.

“Companies don’t have a right to exist. They only exist when people buy their product. They should be mindful of that and respect what people say, meaning moving with regulation, reducing CO2 releases, and being part of society.

“It would be really wrong for a company to say ‘We’re here, you need us and there’s nothing you can do about it’. That’s just not true in the end, customers will go elsewhere.”
We really could triple renewables by 2030, but it won’t be a breeze


Jillian Ambrose
THE GUARDIAN
Sat, 9 December 2023 

Photograph: Ina Fassbender/AFP/Getty Images

In the past week almost 120 global leaders have pledged to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity before 2030 in a bold attempt to slash the global consumption of fossil fuels.

As the second half of the Cop28 UN climate conference in Dubai unfolds in the week ahead, more countries may join the calls for a global target of 11 terawatts (TW) of renewable power by the end of the decade, three times higher than the 3.629TW in place at the end of 2022.

Tripling the world’s renewables by 2030 is an “ambitious yet achievable goal”, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Based on the rate of growth for wind and solar power in recent years, the world is on track to meet this target.


But the global energy watchdog has warned that “stronger policy actions by governments” will be required to surmount the obstacles that threaten to slow the progress of wind and solar power developers. Overcoming challenges, such as rising costs, uncertain supply chains and grid bottlenecks, is considered essential for leaders struggling to hit their goal of limiting global heating to within 1.5C of pre-industrialised levels.

Tripling the world’s renewables would halve the global demand for coal power by 2030, according to estimates, which would deliver almost half the reductions in methane – a potent greenhouse gas – needed from the coalmining sector this decade.

“This is crucial for 1.5C,” said Dave Jones, the global insights lead for climate thinktank Ember. “The tripling goal would take renewables to the next level, with solar and wind reaching 40% of global electricity generation by 2030. Together, these would unlock deep economy-wide fossil fuel reductions and ensure that oil, coal and gas demand not only peak this decade but see a meaningful fall.”

The goal has won the support of 118 countries, which could pave the way for a historic opportunity to cement the ambition in the Cop28 final text. In practice, not every country would be increasing its renewable capacity threefold to hit the global target. Some countries starting from a lower level would need to more than triple their wind and solar power, while for others with a high share of renewables already, it would not be feasible to triple their capacity again.

Chinese wind turbine maker Envision Energy believes meeting the international pledge by 2030 would be “easy”. “This is not visionary,” its chief executive, Lei Zhang, told journalists at the Dubai summit. “If you look at the wind and solar growth rate in the past, you see triple is not difficult because all renewables have been lower cost than fossil fuel.”

Increasing capacity may have been simple in recent years with the help of low interest rates and generous government support schemes, but the sector’s progress for the rest of the decade is less certain. Rising inflation and the disruption to the global offshore wind supply chains has taken a toll on the biggest offshore wind developers in the last year by raising costs by over 40% in some cases. Higher interest rates have pushed up the cost of financing.

More than 90 gigawatts of wind capacity was installed globally across 55 markets in 2022, 14% less than in 2021, according to data from S&P Global. The figures show that global offshore installations more than halved to 9GW in 2022, driven by steep declines in mainland China and the UK.

The future growth of solar power looks relatively assured as global manufacturing capacity is set to reach 1TW a year in 2024, according to the IEA. Still, solar power projects are expected to face a more difficult time connecting to power grids, which require a dramatic rewiring to cope with the extra demand.

Fatih Birol, head of the IEA, has urged governments to “open their eyes” to the scale of the task facing them. Advanced economies will need to lay at least 23m km of power lines by 2040 to meet their renewable energy goals, the IEA says, and on a global level, 80m km of cable will be needed.

So far China and India, two of the world’s biggest polluters, have not backed the pledge despite setting ambitious renewables agendas of their own. India is aiming to triple its renewable capacity by 2030, said Ember. It found that China was responsible for two-thirds of global growth in solar and wind in the first half of 2023, while official forecasts predict the country will double its renewable capacity by 2030.