Sunday, December 15, 2024

Israel’s Genocide: Perils of European Atonement




Europe has twisted itself into knots. It has ended up weaponising its own barbaric past to shelter the barbaric present.




Fans of Maccabi Tel Aviv stage a pro-Israel demonstration near Central Railway Station, lighting up flares and chanting “Let the IDF win” and “F*** the Arabs!” ahead of the UEFA Europa League match between Maccabi Tel Aviv and Ajax in Amsterdam, Netherlands on November 07, 2024. Maccabi fans clashed with Amsterdam citizens and ripped off Palestinian flags hung on the streets (Screenshot via NBC News)

‘Nazi’ – Europe’s lasting contribution to political language – remains the prime ascription of evil in political critique. While the vast criminality implied means its usage is usually an excess, Europe’s range of behaviour since October 7 last year has placed it, plausibly, within touching distance of its wartime notoriety.

The deep complicity in Israel’s genocide in Palestine, and an unprecedented misinformation campaign to obscure genocidal invocation by Israelis in Amsterdam, has meant that its post-war identity has been emptied both abroad and on its soil, which briefly turned into a miniature theatre of the conflict. In the past year, Europe has turned a serious corner: it chose to invalidate itself, dismantle a collective moral credo and accelerate a dark relapse – in the name of preventing it.             

There was a telling consequence to recent ICC ( International Criminal Court) arrest warrants against Israel’s top leadership. After the ruling, media began speculating over something outside of speculation: whether European nations will enforce the warrants. Major European nations are members of the ICC, which prosecutes war crimes. It follows that Europe must enforce the ruling and failure therein will undermine agreements – including conceptually – and disable the ‘rules-based order’. It is not an act of choice, or one which merits praise reserved for moral courage.

That this matter – a technical guarantee and aligned with Europe’s famous atonement – required the insight of specialists, is the result of self-invalidation. It shows that Europe has so dramatically abandoned its fervent post-Holocaust tenet – zero tolerance for genocide – that a realistic instinct observed, on the subject of genocide itself, it may go rogue.

These managed expectations have already proven wise. Germany has, with tactical ambivalence, all but stated that it would not enforce the warrants and France has refused to enforce them. Hungary, too, will not honour the ICC, which, after exhaustive technical deliberation, ruled that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and ex-defence minister Yoav Gallant are genocidal war criminals.   

Europe has turned legal compliance into a radical idea and is being viewed accordingly. With the Amsterdam misinformation campaign injecting an element of domesticity into a situation where an all-purpose abetment to Israel’s genocide is already underway, only two possibilities separate it from a full reclamation of its Nazi past: a local genocide or European personnel physically committing genocide abroad.

The absence of these events, while allowing European leaders to meet a rather low bar – not being full scale Nazis – is not sufficient to negate the charge that they have junked their ‘Never Again’ and submitted to the other one – the Never Again of Meir Kahane

Components of Genocide

The list of verified Israeli atrocities can be examined with the understanding that indirect complicity in them amounts to criminality. This understanding draws from a Western approach: its sanctions on Iran for providing arms to Russia, and its punitive view of Iranian support to regional proxies.

Major European nations have provided weapons or parts to Israel during the genocide and only shown interest in the outcome – an industrial level slaughter of civilians – to the extent of managing its optics. They have provided material aid, diplomatic cover and image management to a state which is visibly obliterating a people.

They have supported Israel knowing it is targeting and torturing civilians, using Lavender and Where’s Daddy – AI tools with alarmingly broad definitions of ‘terrorist’  – to kill people in their homes, destroying civilian infrastructureburying civilians alive, using chemical weapons, using Palestinians as human shields, using the Dahiyeh doctrine, bombing refugee campssniping children in the headgangraping detainees, engaging in necroviolencewithholding water, food, electricity, medication and other medical services, sharing home invasion pictures and footage aimed at the psychosexual humiliation of Palestinians, carrying out cultural genocide, and scholasticide.

The IDF (Israel Defence Forces) has been stripping, handcuffing and blindfolding large groups of people and carting them off in trucks, with no proof or reason shared with media. It has been using security dogs to maul the elderlykill the differently-abled and – as per Fadi Bakr’s testimony on bestial torture – rape detainees.   

It has killed a record number of aid workers and journalists, and created ‘the largest cohort of paediatric amputees ever recorded, over 4,000 children’.

On the periphery of these atrocities, another narrative is unfolding. Israel – an occupying power – is conducting its conflict in step with louder calls for Greater Israel. Israel’s coalition cabinet contains supremacist zealots – illegal settlers who have antecedents in the Kahane strain of Zionism. They argue for the total transfer of Palestinians to other Arab countries and see no contradiction in simultaneously wanting – with territorial ambitions which extend up to Saudi Arabia – to annex parts of those countries.

Israel is unlikely to relinquish north Gaza, which some of its most radical communities are mobilising to settle. It has an addict’s temperament toward land and is a passionate opponent of refugees’ right of return. It is waiting for January – for Trump – who had previously sanitised its occupation of Golan Heights and Jerusalem.

This should alarm Europe, since the Nazi genocide also ran parallel to a quest to conquer and settle land, lebensraum – an ordained, militaristic ‘need’ for land to accommodate a Greater Germanic Reich. In Europe’s case, before the Nazis were contained, major tracts of Europe had been smashed and occupied. Part of the European guilt for non-Germans is that, in these overrun countries, the Nazis found political collaborators, ideologically sympathetic sections and too many bystanders. Some of these countries hosted concentration camps.

This experience informs a shared, influential memory. By extending Israel’s right to self-defence to the right to starve, the right to annex and the right to cleanse, Europe has shown loyalty to war criminals, and contempt for memory. It is watching Israeli construction in north Gaza and the violent settler expansion in the West Bank with a ahistorical detachment that includes not only detachment from its experience of Nazi occupation, but also from its own brutal occupations elsewhere.

Since October 7 last year, Israel has invaded two countries, bombed five and attacked UN peacekeepers. By tonnage, its bombing has surpassed World War II. Conservative estimates say it has killed over 44,000 people – a growing figure which could be dwarfed by the looming possibilities of epidemic and starvation.

The above, while enough to make full moral assessments of Europe, occurred away from it, unlike the genocidal calls by Israelis in Amsterdam. In an act of underrated significance, the West protected those Israelis at the cost of an already terminal credibility.

Amsterdam

The recent coverage of Israeli hooliganism earlier this month points to new milestone on the arc of European relapse: covering up genocidal calls on its mainland and further endangering the targets of those threats, using a stunning array of fabrications charged with imagery from its own grotesque past.

The genocide in Gaza had not until then presented itself in such bare ways on European streets – within that which is optically European. The communalism and violence it has been content to sustain continents away from its clean topographies, quality of life and cultural polish came back in a way so dramatic, it jerked Europe’s worst latencies into hyperactivity:   

Before and after the football match between Ajax and Israel’s Maccabi Tel Aviv, travelling Maccabi fans exhibited collective behaviour, which included vandalising homes, assaulting Amsterdam locals, glorifying genocide and actively inciting it. As a foreign mob, they attacked people and property with weapons. The chanting included ‘Death to Arabs’ and – notably – ‘Why is there no school in Gaza? Because no children are left.’ The latter chant can be read with the fact of Israeli conscription: the Maccabi mob, composed of IDF reservists, was chanting about recent exploits.   

This is evidenced by video from multiple, independent sources. It suggests the Israeli mob should have been promptly arrested under Dutch hate crime law, as their slogans make clear. Instead, they were given police protection – not only during the chanting, but during the violence. The Netherlands, formerly occupied by Hitler and signatory to the Genocide Convention, was providing security cover for genocidal intent. When locals mobilised to challenge the Macabbi rhetoric and violence, they faced a crackdown from their police, then demonisation by their elites.

A diverse set of actors – editors, pundits, mayors, US presidents and kings – were part of an exceptional propaganda campaign. Independent video evidence was lifted by mainstream Western media and reproduced with such a crudely mangled narrative – an open inversion of culpability and victimhood – that it was instantly debunked.   

To protect Maccabi fans, the Western narrative reversed the truth and spiked it with loaded, Holocaust-era language. ‘Jew hunt’ and ‘pogrom’ littered the coverage, which suggested that an innocent group of football fans had been brutalised by prowling gangs of anti-semetic, pro-Palestine locals. Wild references to Anne Frank and Ktystalmacht were made. There was nothing coded about the propaganda: Jew-hating Muslims migrants were hunting Israelis.

German, French and British media were identical in this deception. Bild, BBCThe GuardianTagesschau and others picked up photographer Annet de Graaf’s video showing Maccabi fans attacking locals. They used the footage with a narration to turn reality on its head, saying it depicted Jews being targeted. They disregarded the signature yellow on the attackers’ Maccabi jerseys and duped their viewership into believing shades of Nazism were on display.

In no time, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen had condemned the ‘anti-semetism’. Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof was speaking of ‘anti-semetic violence’ by people with ‘migration backgrounds’, Geert Wilders suggested deporting north African migrants and Dutch king Willem Alexander lamented that Europe failed the Jewish community. Amsterdam mayor Femke Halsema said the events evoked ‘memories of pogroms’ while Joe Biden wrote they echoed ‘dark moments in history’.

The bleakest case concerned Alice Porter, a Sky News journalist. She reported what footage showed: Maccabi hooligans attacking locals and trying to foster murderous sentiment in public. By presenting verifiable truth, she extracted a public confession from Sky News: that it is not a journalistic entity, but theatre scripted by power which, to serve power, will kill its honest reporting if any accidentally occurs. It deleted Porter’s work, released a re-edited version of the report and made her voice a fresh narration liberated from facts. The original report, due to insufficient contempt for truth, did not meet Sky’s ‘standards for balance’.      

After a global fact-check, some publications like The Guardian released ‘revised’ videos saying that Maccabi fans had indeed been provocative and violent. Even in these revisions, they omitted the most sinister part: chants about IDF’s mass pedicide.  

Most US coverage, expectedly, was formulaic Israeli state propaganda, with pieces like ‘The age of the pogrom returns,’ ‘Amsterdam is about Jew hatred – and Gaza,’ ‘Antisemetic attacks prompt emergency flights for Israeli soccer fans’ and ‘A worldwide Jew hunt’ appearing in The New York Times alone. US television channels like CNN, NBC, CBS all reported along the same lines, with varying degrees of outrage over a piece of fiction.

Europe, though, stood more deeply exposed. It had protected a massive gang of foreigners on its streets as they attacked its own citizens and called for genocide. Its politicians, editors and monarchs, instead of being stirred by their postwar lessons to come down exceptionally hard on the perpetrators, redirected those lessons to condemn and endanger their own population.             

Europe’s Confused Moral Circuitry

There is chilling poetry in the European predicament. The fact of militarised Israelis chanting for genocide on its soil from the pointed place of Jewish identity – framed by the full historical causality of that circumstance – is surreal. The establishment response was equally so. Europe has falsely derived that guilt begets loyalty to grouping, not opposition to phenomena. In other words, its Holocaust lesson is to always and mechanically aid Zionism, not be against the broad idea of genocide.

An interaction of two factors underlies this: post-war atonement and colonialism. To help itself deal with the guilt of one dark past, it has deployed the other. It has found that the way to exorcise its demons over exterminating part of its population is to channel its residual imperial racism – to remain unflinching when a disfigured legacy of that extermination does the same to ethnically Asian, ex-European subjects. Europe has twisted itself into knots. The circuitry of its guilt and repentance is confused. It has ended up weaponising its own barbaric past to shelter the barbaric present.       

In making an exception to its post-war resolve in the bloodiest of ways – not only arming genocide but providing diplomatic and propaganda cover to its personnel and cheerleaders – it has shown that European atonement is the same as European sin: an act of blood.

Samar is a writer and musician from New Delhi. The views are personal.

 

 

Millions in Indo-Gangetic Plains, Himalayan Foothills Forced to Breathe Toxic Air: ICIMOD Scientists



Major cities across the region, including Multan, Lahore, New Delhi, Kolkata and Dhaka, were seeing elevated levels of smoke, fog, particulate matter and other air pollutants.

Patna: Increasing air pollution has been threatening environment and health across the Indo-Gangetic Plains and Himalayan Foothills (IGP-HF), with hundreds of thousands of people being forced to breathe toxic air.

According to scientists of Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), millions of people in IGP-HF includes India, continue to breathe hazardous air, with recent atmospheric concentrations of PM2.5, the finest and most dangerous particulate matter that measure less than 2.5 micrometres in diameter, reported to be as high as 20 times the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) recommended daily limit.

Researchers at regional inter-governmental knowledge centre at ICIMOD said that major cities across the region, including Multan, Lahore, New Delhi, Kolkata and Dhaka were seeing elevated levels of smoke, fog, particulate matter and other air pollutants.

In view of the serious threat to environment and health, they are developing a suite of visualisation tools that gives users an option for seeing historical and forecasted trends in local, sub-regional and regional air pollution levels.

“Using a combination of real-time data captured from ground sensors and satellite imagery, these visualisation tools are hosted on ICIMOD’s Air Quality Dashboard, which is open to the public for use. Using one such tool, which uses data generated from the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem), the team has been able to show daily PM2.5 levels across the IGP during the first three weeks of November,” said a scientist Bhupesh Adhikary, senior air quality specialist, ICIMOD.

The resulting time lapse shows plumes of PM2.5 stretching across the IGP and reaching out into the Bay of Bengal. The values are as high as 300 micrograms per cubic metre (µg/m³,as daily values) in certain hotspots, including Lahore in Pakistan and New Delhi in India, which is 20 times higher than the WHO daily guideline of 15 µg/m³, he said.

Bertand Bessagnent, coordinator, Action for Clean Air, ICIMOD, said the WRF-Chem is a model that helps air pollution scientists understand the interaction between weather and pollution factors, and helps monitor and anticipate outbreaks of air pollution.

Data from WRF-Chem combines data on both local and regional emissions to give a more accurate picture of how air pollution behaves at a transboundary scale, as often seen in the IGP-HF. Visitors can use this tool to get a two-day forecast of likely air pollution scenarios as they unfold.

Transboundary air pollution is a huge issue in the IGP-HF, with this latest episode of pollution resulting in school closures in Pakistan’s second largest city, Lahore, and across parts of North India. A substantial body of global evidence – that continues to grow – shows that there are serious health consequences of people living in polluted conditions. While globally it was the second leading risk factor for early death in 2021, it is estimated that two million premature deaths happen due to air pollution in South Asia every year, said ICIMOD’s scientists.

Earlier, this year ICIMOD’s study highlighted that the IGP-HF region airshed includes some of the world’s most polluted countries. Air pollution costs the global economy $8 trillion a year, and in South Asia wipes out more than 10% of gross domestic product per annum.

Izabella Koziell, Deputy Director General of ICIMOD, had said then, “The longer-term health and productivity costs, and the fall-out from the temperature rises that air pollution accelerates, will be higher still. These are costs that low- and middle-income countries in this region can ill afford. Stakeholders from across the region simply have to come together to shift the dial on dirty air.”

The experts opined that India alone could save up to $1.3 trillion in health benefits by 2030 by meeting air quality standards. Pakistan is estimated to lose $1 billion a year in environmental degradation chiefly due to air pollution.

Rapid industrialisation and population growth are key drivers of declining air quality in South Asia, with sources including transport, industry, agriculture, waste burning, and domestic solid fuel use

ICIMOD’s study said the toxic air in South Asia has risen more than 50% since the start of this century. This has GDP in the region and shortened the average lifespan in India, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan by five years, versus four months for the average American, said leading regional and international scientists at an even held in Kathmandu, Nepal.

According to experts , populations across the region are exposed to polluted air, exposure and vulnerability are greatest among those living in poverty – including those working long hours outdoors, communities living close to landfills or factories, or families unable to afford clean alternatives to solid fuels for cooking, lighting, or heating.

The writer is a freelancer based in Patna, Bihar.

02 Dec 2024

 INDIA

Secure Land Rights Still a Far Cry for Workers, Small Farmers




The Forest Rights Act has barely been implemented in Uttarakhand and Tamil Nadu, finds a new study.

Working class families across India -- whether they live in rural or urban areas -- lack secure rights to the land they use for housing, agriculture or other forms of livelihood, a new study by researchers working with the Social Research Collective has found. This causes them to face harassment, penalties, and evictions, all of which undermine their economic security. Evictions harm children in particular, leading to generational impacts on poverty.

While such actions are justified as being necessary for environmental protection, infrastructure development or to address encroachment of public property, often these objectives are not achieved. Both the Central and state governments have made efforts to address this problem, but so far these efforts have had limited impact and not reached the majority of affected families.

In two urban sites (Delhi and Dehradun in Uttarakhand), the survey participants of a study faced serious problems around housing - 82% in Dehradun and 66% in Delhi were living on land that was not in their names, mostly on land whose status they did not know or which was government land. Contrary to common impressions, more than half of the families in both cities had paid for the land they were living on, often through a broker in the case of Dehradun.

Out of those living on rent across all four areas, the vast majority had no written agreement. Nearly a third (29%) in Dehradun and a tenth (10%) in Delhi had been threatened with eviction and approximately 6-7% in both cities had actually been evicted.

Similarly, even though most lived in rural or semi-urban areas, the researchers recorded that an astonishing 81% of respondents they surveyed in Tamil Nadu had been threatened with eviction, and 19% had actually been evicted. None of those evicted in Dehradun and 90% in Tamil Nadu said they had received no compensation or alternative places to live, but 60% in Delhi had received an alternative place to live, perhaps because of that city's clear rehabilitation policy.

Moreover, 100% of those evicted in Dehradun said there was no change in the use of the land from which they were evicted, while in Delhi a significant number of respondents said the land was given to builders or companies (as well as roads and infrastructure projects).

This calls into question whether these evictions achieved any public purpose.

Finally, those who were not evicted still often suffered from relatively poor-quality housing -- in a surprising finding, nearly one-fifth in Dehradun said they lacked regular electricity connections. Despite being relatively more secure, the majority of people surveyed in the mountain region of Tehri Garhwal in Uttarakhand did not have taps within their homes (tap connections, where present, were often outside their homes).

While housing problems were more severe in the cities, rural families faced considerable problems in using the lands they needed for agriculture, kitchen gardens and common purposes (such as firewood).

In Tehri Garhwal, around 12.5% of respondents said they were using land whose owner they did not know, and over 90% used forests or common lands for some purpose. But in Tehri Garhwal no one had any recorded rights to this use, as a result of which 16% had been fined and almost 4% had been detained or arrested for such uses.

In Tamil Nadu around one-fifth of respondents had been threatened with eviction from their agricultural lands too, and more than half used forests or common lands, but only 6% had any form of recognised rights.

Government efforts to address these problems have had limited reach. Except for Tamil Nadu, the vast majority have not applied under housing schemes. In Dehradun, 1.2% said they had paid for benefits from under such schemes but not received any benefits.

According to the study, the Forest Rights Act, which would protect rights to forests and common lands, has barely been implemented in both Tamil Nadu and Uttarakhand.

As many as 1,840 working class and small farmer families were surveyed as part of this study across four field sites -- Tehri Garhwal and Dehradun in Uttarakhand; Delhi; and the districts of Ramanathapuram and the Nilgiris in Tamil Nadu. The survey was carried out in July and August 2024.

The study recommends that rights to those using land for housing, agriculture and so on should be recognised as the preferred option, with guaranteed rehabilitation for anyone whose rights cannot be recognised. It also suggests expansion of low-cost housing schemes, guarantees of statutory rights to housing, working class cooperatives in developing housing, and, finally, treatment of both affordable housing and land rights recognition not as ‘welfare schemes’ but as development interventions, intended to enhance purchasing power and economic security.

Shankar Gopalakrishnan is a researcher and activist based in Dehradun. He is one of the authors of the study cited in the article. The authors of the report are grateful to Smita Gupta for her guidance in designing and interpreting the results of the survey. 

02 Dec 2024




Emissions trading

Qurat ul ain Siddiqui
December 14, 2024 
DAWN




EFFORTS to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have driven several countries to adopt cap-and-trade systems as a way to balance environmental and economic goals. As Pakistan explores this model, it faces the challenge of designing a system that not only reduces emissions but also aligns with the country’s unique socioeconomic realities. Learning from global examples can provide insights into how cap-and-trade systems can be tailored to local needs.

Let’s look at China’s Emissions Trading Scheme. Launched in 2021, China’s ETS is the world’s largest carbon market, currently covering the country’s power sector. It manages some 5.1 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions, accounting for over 40 per cent of Beijing’s total emissions. The ETS establishes an overall emissions cap and permits trading of allowances, incentivising businesses to reduce their carbon footprint while allowing flexibility in meeting their targets. It employs an output- and rate-based design, linking permits to actual electricity generation and emissions intensity benchmarks, encouraging cost-effective reductions. China plans to broaden its ETS by incorporating energy-intensive sectors like steel and aluminium.

South Korea’s Emissions Trading Scheme, launched in 2015, began with a phased rollout that now includes approximately 70pc of the country’s GHG emissions. This gradual approach allowed industries to adapt to new regulations as they built the necessary compliance frameworks. This phased implementation enabled adjustments based on industry feedback and facilitated effective participation in the scheme.

California’s cap-and-trade scheme, operational since 2013, takes a slightly different path by integrating the economic benefits of carbon trading directly into its framework. As of May 2023, the ETS has raised around $27bn from auctions. This revenue is deposited into the state’s Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund and is then allocated to projects aimed at reducing GHG emissions and benefiting disadvantaged communities. So far, around $9.8bn has been invested in initiatives focused on environmental and public health improvements.


A well-designed carbon market can offer benefits.

Similarly, the EU’s ETS, launched in 2005, uses auctioned allowances to generate funds which are then reinvested into renewable energy and energy-efficiency projects. Initially focused on foundational industries, it has expanded to include sectors such as aviation. This scalability and adaptability shows how the EU ETS has remained effective over time. Since 2013, auctioning has been the default method for distributing allowances, and member states are required to allocate at least half of their auction revenues for climate- and energy-related initiatives.

Several features contribute to the efficacy of these systems. They prioritise transparency through measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) frameworks, have in place mechanisms to stabilise market prices, and support industries and communities that may be disproportionately affected. And while each approach varies in design and scope, the core principle remains consistent: a well-structured carbon market can drive emissions reductions without hindering economic growth.

An effective MRV framework is essential for ensuring transparency. Aligning Pakistan’s MRV systems with international standards can establish trust, facilitate accurate tracking, and help refine strategies. Collaboration with established markets could offer valuable tools and expertise. However, developing a dependable MRV system will demand significant inv­estments in training, technology, and policy alignment to en­­s­ure consistent implementation across sectors.

Political will is a critical ingredient for establishing a successful carbon market. Clear, enforceable regulations, ba­­cked by sufficient oversight funding, are essential. Government leader-ship and public awareness campaigns are necessary when it comes to building trust and encouraging participation. To this end, policymakers must also address concerns around potential economic disruption.

That said, designing a carbon market for Pakistan requires balancing economic realities with environmental goals. The country’s long-standing reliance on fossil fuels and high-emission industries, such as textiles and agriculture, necessitates gradual, sector-specific strategies to ensure a careful and just transition. Policies should promote cleaner energy while safeguarding energy security.

For Pakistan, a well-designed carbon market can offer benefits, but success requires sustained efforts in regulation and public engagement. Islamabad must be patient and adaptable to overcome initial challenges and aim for an ETS that integrates global practices with local priorities.

The writer is a journalist covering energy transition, emissions markets, and climate finance.
quratulain.siddiqui@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, December 14th, 2024



The climate paradox: AI’s role in both saving and sabotaging the planet

As the world hops on the AI bandwagon, one question continues to loom: is it sustainable?
 December 10, 2024
PRISM/DAWN
In a world racing to combat climate change, the newest weapon in our arsenal comes with an ironic twist. Artificial Intelligence, our digital saviour in the fight against global warming, has developed quite a thirst of its own. In what could be a scene from a science fiction story, the very machines we’re building to help save our planet are guzzling water and energy at rates that have scientists very concerned.

Every time you ask ChatGPT — that marvel of modern AI that can write poems about climate change or calculate carbon footprints — a few dozen questions, it drinks roughly 500ml of clean water to cool the powerful computers behind its intelligence. That’s two glasses of water for a few dozen queries, while training a model like GPT-3, which is several generations behind OpenAI’s latest o1 model, consumes millions of litres more.

For Pakistan, perched precariously on the frontlines of the climate crisis, this paradox holds particular significance. In a country where glacial melt threatens northern communities and erratic monsoons flood southern plains, AI offers powerful tools for prediction and adaptation.

Yet as temperature records shatter each summer and water scarcity looms, the environmental cost of these digital solutions cannot be ignored. “Climate change is the biggest challenge facing the planet. It will need every solution possible, including technology like artificial intelligence,” notes Jackie Snow in National Geographic.

But as Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief executive, recently admitted at the World Economic Forum, AI’s growing energy demands present their own challenge: “There’s no way to get there without a breakthrough.”






At its best, artificial intelligence acts like a planetary nervous system — sensing, predicting, and helping us respond to environmental threats. Google’s Flood Hub, for instance, provides flood forecasts up to seven days in advance across more than 80 countries, helping protect communities across Africa, Europe, South and Central America, and the Asia-Pacific region, including Pakistan. As of 2023, their forecasts cover areas where over 460 million people live. In October 2023, this service expanded to the US and Canada, covering more than 800 riverbanks where over 12m people live.

In California, machine learning algorithms help firefighters predict and track wildfire spread. And in agriculture, AI’s precision farming techniques are reducing water waste and optimising crop yields.

These applications aren’t just impressive — they’re essential. The World Meteorological Organisation estimates that improving early warning systems could reduce climate disaster damages by 30 per cent.

AI is already delivering real climate action results. Global Forest Watch uses AI and satellite imagery to create a real-time tool to monitor and combat deforestation. Google’s AI-powered project Green Light collaborates with 12 cities including Manchester, Rio de Janeiro, Jakarta, and Abu Dhabi to reduce stop-and-start traffic events through AI-supported traffic light management — with early indicators showing potential for up to a 30pc reduction in stops, which could reduce emissions at intersections by up to 10pc. In the fusion energy field, Google DeepMind has developed a deep reinforcement learning system that helps researchers better control nuclear fusion plasma, opening new pathways for clean energy research.

But running these powerful AI systems requires enormous computing power. For example, training GPT-3 consumed an estimated 1,287 MWh (megawatt-hours) of electricity, which is roughly equivalent to the energy consumption of an average Pakistani household over 2,000 years, if the 643 kWh average annual consumption figure is to be believed. This January, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that global data centre electricity demand will more than double from 2022 to 2026, with AI fuelling that increase.

And their carbon footprint is equally large. Training a single large language model is equal to around 300,000kg of carbon dioxide emissions. This is of the order of 125 round-trip flights between New York and Beijing. According to researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, training one of these models can generate carbon emissions equivalent to the lifetime emissions of five average American cars.

The water footprint is equally startling. Modern data centres use vast amounts of water for cooling — up to 500,000 gallons per day for a large facility. By 2027, some experts project that AI systems could demand as much water as half the United Kingdom’s annual consumption.






In west Des Moines, in America’s Iowa state, residents were startled to discover that a nearby data centre — one that helped train some of the world’s most advanced AI models, like GPT-4 — was consuming millions of gallons of their local water supply. A lawsuit by local residents revealed that in July 2022, the month before OpenAI finished training the model, the cluster used about 6pc of the district’s water.

“Within years, large AI systems are likely to need as much energy as entire nations,” warns Crawford. This isn’t hyperbole — the compute power needed for AI training has been doubling every 3.4 months since 2012, a staggering deviation from the traditional 18-month doubling of computer power known as Moore’s Law.

But it’s not just about keeping machines cool. Each component in an AI system’s lifecycle demands resources. Manufacturing the specialised chips that power AI requires ultra-pure water and rare earth minerals. The servers running these systems need constant power, and the batteries storing that power contain materials whose mining creates its own environmental challenges.






While the benefits of AI — improved climate predictions, optimised energy systems, better disaster responses — can be global, the environmental costs fall disproportionately on certain regions and communities.

The disparity is stark: in 2022, while Google operated its data centre in Finland on 97pc carbon-free energy, that number plummeted to between 4-18pc for its data centres in Asia. This dramatic difference means some communities bear a far heavier burden of fossil fuel consumption and air pollution than others. “Unfortunately, there remains a widening disparity in how different regions and communities are affected by AI’s environmental impacts,” note Shaolei Ren and Adam Wierman in the Harvard Business Review.

The scale of this challenge is set to grow dramatically — global AI energy demand is projected to increase tenfold, exceeding the annual electricity consumption of Belgium by 2026. In the United States alone, AI-driven data centre energy consumption is expected to reach about 6pc of the nation’s total electricity usage by that same year.

In water-stressed regions like Pakistan, where every drop counts, the water demands of AI infrastructure could compete with basic needs like agriculture and drinking water.

This disparity extends beyond resources to expertise. According to a Stack Overflow survey published by the OECD, North America hosts 30pc of the world’s AI experts (who are active online), while Pakistan accounts for 0.67pc. This concentration of talent and computing power in the Global North risks creating solutions that may not fully account for the needs and constraints of developing nations.






The path to sustainable AI isn’t just about accepting trade-offs; it’s about reimagining how we build and deploy these systems. Tech companies are making unprecedented investments in renewable energy. According to the latest Solar Means Business report, industry leaders including Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Google have signed renewable energy agreements totalling almost 50 GW of clean energy generation capacity — equivalent to the entire power generation capacity of Sweden.

But the real innovations are happening at the intersection of efficiency and design.

“Training better models can actually save more energy over time,” explains Justin Burr from Google AI. “Given the number of times they’re used each day for inference, in less than a week they save more in energy than the old hand-tuned versions.”

Google’s machine-learning optimised Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) demonstrate this principle in action — their version 4 can generate 93pc fewer emissions compared to traditional unoptimised servers.

Location matters too. The carbon intensity of AI training can vary dramatically depending on where the data centres are located. Norway’s electric grid, for instance, produces just 29g of CO2 per kilowatt-hour, compared to 709g in South Africa.

Some regions could turn geography into an advantage. In Quebec, for instance, the combination of hydroelectric power and cold winters creates a unique opportunity: data centres can tap into clean energy while their waste heat is repurposed to warm nearby homes.

“I think that more tax incentives should be given for cloud providers to open data centres in places with hydro or solar energy,” suggests Alexandra Luccioni, an AI researcher quoted in Nature. “In Quebec, we have a very low-carbon grid that relies mostly on hydro, plus with the cold winters, the heat generated by computing centres can be used to heat homes.”

The research community has also been pushing for what they call “Green AI” — a movement that prioritises computational efficiency alongside accuracy. Roy Schwartz and his colleagues found that 90pc of papers at top AI conferences prioritised accuracy over efficiency. But this is changing. Teams like France’s BigScience project have demonstrated that it’s possible to build models similar in size to GPT-3 with a much lower carbon footprint.

Water conservation is becoming a priority too. Meta’s data centres have experimented with raising the temperature and lowering humidity requirements, achieving water savings of up to 40pc in some cases. Google has gone further, pledging to replenish 120pc of the water it consumes by 2030 through initiatives including wetland restoration and rainwater harvesting.

The most promising approaches don’t just focus on individual metrics but take a holistic view of environmental impact. The Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency emphasises that “environmental sustainability should be considered as one of the principles towards responsible development and application of AI”. This means considering everything from the sourcing of materials for AI hardware to the end-of-life disposal of equipment.

“Not every problem demands a machine learning-based solution,” notes Deepika Sandeep, an AI scientist who heads the AI and ML programme at Bharat Light & Power, a clean energy generation company based in Bangalore, India. He advocates for a judicious approach where simpler, less compute-intensive solutions are used when possible.

These improvements can’t come soon enough. But Bill Gates takes a more optimistic view of AI’s environmental equation. While concerns about AI’s energy appetite grow, Gates argues that the technology’s overall impact on climate change will be net positive. The additional strain that AI data centres put on power grids is relatively modest, he contends, and will be more than offset by the efficiency gains that AI enables. “It’s not like, ‘Oh no, we can’t do it because we’re addicted to doing chat sessions,’” Gates points out, dismissing fears that our growing AI usage might derail climate action.

The race is now on to ensure that breakthrough comes in the form of sustainable innovation rather than increased consumption.






For Pakistan, these developments present both challenge and opportunity. As the country works to modernise its technology sector and harness AI for climate resilience, choices made today will shape the environmental impact for years to come.

Dr Kashif Talpur, a machine learning researcher in UK’s Solent University, emphasises the importance of considering the full lifecycle of AI models. “

“An AI model has to go through two stages: training and inferencing. Inferencing, which occurs when the AI model is in the hands of end users, constitutes about 90pc of its lifecycle. This stage incurs significantly higher costs compared to the prior one, involving millions of dollars, thousands of kilowatts of energy per hour, and substantial carbon emissions. On average, a large AI model generates more carbon footprint in its lifetime than an average American car.”

He further explains the scale of the challenge: “The scale of these models makes them highly energy-demanding, as millions of users submit numerous queries daily, with each query requiring a separate inference. Additionally, speed is a critical efficiency parameter for AI model performance, necessitating powerful, energy-hungry processing units. The more complex the problems these models are expected to solve, the more computational resources each inference requires.”

“Today’s large language models, such as ChatGPT, Gemini, and various other copilots, are equipped with billions of parameters. Maintaining and cooling the infrastructure, like data centres, adds to the ongoing costs in terms of energy consumption, hardware wear and tear, and operational expenses,” Dr Talpur notes.

However, he also sees cause for optimism in technological advancements. “Recent developments in AI hardware, such as specialised computational units like NVIDIA’s AI chips, offer more efficient solutions compared to traditional GPUs and TPUs. These advancements can significantly speed up tasks while reducing energy demands. On the software side, AI and machine learning scientists are developing models with quantisation abilities, which help reduce the computational capacity needed. This shows a promising AI future with environmental issues addressed up to most extent.”

For Pakistan, charting a path forward means investing not just in AI adoption, but in making that adoption sustainable. It means policies that favour renewable energy for potential future data centres, that prioritise water conservation in cooling systems, that incentivise the development of lean, green AI models. It means cultivating local talent and ensuring Pakistani voices are heard in the global dialogue about responsible AI.

Most of all, it means recognising that embracing AI’s transformative potential comes with a responsibility — a duty to deploy these tools in a way that doesn’t exacerbate the very problems they’re meant to solve.

In this respect, Pakistan’s journey with AI is a microcosm of the larger global challenge. As intelligent machines become increasingly essential in the fight against climate change, ensuring they don’t become part of the problem will be a defining test of our time.

The stakes, for Pakistan and the planet, couldn’t be higher. But with foresight and a commitment to sustainability, there’s hope yet that the AI revolution will be a force for healing, rather than harming, our fragile world.

Header illustration created with generative AI
Harvesting the sun for industrial growth
December 9, 2024
DAWN




Here comes the sun, and it’s all right. The surge in distributed solar over the last eighteen months has led to an exodus from the electricity grid, as the reduction in the price of solar panels has made distributed solar more affordable. Growth in the adoption of solar has changed the way households and industries alike consume electricity.

During the past decade, peak consumption was largely during the day when industries and households consumed electricity for production and cooling purposes, respectively. However, as distributed solar energy started becoming more affordable, there has been diversion of consumption from the grid to distributed solar.

Such diversion has led to the emergence of a phenomenon called a ‘duck curve’ globally, whereas the sun starts shining bright, energy generated through solar starts kicking in, reducing consumption of electricity through the grid.

Effectively, due to favourable economics of solar, peak energy requirements shifted from the daytime to late at night at 11pm, extending to 2am. This provides an opportunity to adjust peak time-of-use (TOU) prices — currently for 6pm to 10pm during which peak consumption actually doesn’t exist.

The surge in distributed solar leading to surplus capacity can allow industries to purchase electricity at marginal price

Peak consumption late at night effectively means that surplus capacity is available during the day, which can be redirected for industrial consumption. Doomsayers suggest that industrial consumption moving off-grid would be the death knell for the grid — however, the data may suggest otherwise.

A review of industrial consumption over the last two years suggests that there has been a drop in consumption year-on-year. Industrial growth as measured by the Large Scale Manufacturing (LSM) index stayed flat between FY23 and FY24 — when electricity consumption from the grid actually reduced. Adjusting for it, it is estimated that around 300 megawatts of industrial demand moved to solar.

However, that doesn’t mean that any industrial growth that will come in the future would come from solar — it will require the grid, as any surplus space available for solar close to industry would soon be filled up, or become too expensive for solar to make economic sense.

The surge in solar consumption has led to surplus capacity during the daytime. First, principles of economics suggest that there are buyers of a certain commodity at various prices, and any surplus can be cleared out through a marginal price. Moreover, in the case of power, the marginal cost would be the cost of the fuel that is being utilised to dispatch that additional unit of electricity.

Due to the surge in solar consumption, during peak daylight hours, between 7am and 2pm, the average surplus capacity available relative to the peak was in the range of 3,000MW. Similarly, during June 2024, the same was in the range of 1,500MW. Effectively, during a 24-hour period, the variation between peak consumption and average consumption during peak daylight was in the range of 1,500MW and 3,000MW for June 2024 and September 2024, respectively.

During the same daylight interval of 7am and 2pm, the average marginal cost of electricity was Rs20.4 per kilowatt hour (kWh) for June 2024 and Rs13 per kWh for September 2024. This provides an opportunity to sell surplus capacity at the marginal cost.

Industries can be provided an incentive to consume incremental electricity at the marginal cost, plus a buffer for prudence. As they consume more electricity, their average electricity costs reduce, improving the overall economics of production in the process.




Maximum industrial electricity consumption in the country has not exceeded 3,800MW from the grid; any additional utilisation that may come, even if consumption is maxed out may not be more than 400-600MW depending on the current numbers.

Effectively, over the short run, it is entirely possible to allow industrial users to utilise surplus capacity available during peak daylight at marginal costs. Such a maneuver would not just increase consumption from the grid, but also reduce average costs of industries in the process.

The marginal cost would be different every month, depending on the season, temperature during the day, cloud cover, etc. Similarly, for different electricity distribution companies, the surplus capacity available relative to peak capacity is in the range of 13pc for K-Electric and 28pc for the Sukkur Electric Supply Company.

Adjusting for variation, marginal costs can be further adjusted to stimulate consumption for different distribution companies. Such a regime that prices incremental consumption between certain hours of the day at a marginal cost can be institutionalised through TOU metres.

In the mid- to long run, marginal costs can be projected on an hourly and monthly basis. Surplus capacity available can be auctioned off through a Dutch auction process to industries that are willing to incur capital expenditure to expand production, and eventually consume more electricity.

Surplus capacity and solarisation is a good problem. The solution to the problem lies in clearing out such surplus capacity through a market-driven pricing process. The country has a shrinking industrial base — it is time to grow it and leverage surplus power generation capacity through an efficient pricing regime.

The writer is the CEO of National Credit Guarantee Company Ltd and assistant professor of practice at IBA, Karachi