Carbon emission drivers in the Belt and Road Initiative countries—An empirical analysis based on countries with different income levels
Tsinghua University Press
With the promotion of the "the Belt and Road" initiative, the economy and society of BRI countries have developed rapidly, but they are also facing severe challenges of rising carbon emissions. Many countries rely on fossil fuels, and the process of energy transition is slow. Coupled with insufficient financial and technological support, especially low-income countries that have limited access to global climate funds, they face greater difficulties in the low-carbon transformation process.
To identify the carbon emission drivers at different development stages of BRI countries and regions, and explores the impact of various energy types on carbon emission changes from the perspective of energy transition, researchers from Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Global Sustainable Development Center of the School of Public Policy of the University of Maryland published a study in the journal Energy and Climate Management on January 20, 2025. By constructing a two-stage factorization model, the study deeply analyzed the carbon emission changes of 102 "the Belt and Road" countries.
The research results indicate that economic development and population growth are the main driving factors for the increase in carbon emissions, while energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy consumption play an important role in reducing emissions. Nevertheless, the rate of increase in carbon emissions from economic growth far exceeds the emission reduction effects of energy intensity and carbon intensity, especially in low-income countries where carbon emissions are on a downward trend, and the contribution of clean energy is increasingly evident. However, in the past decade, the dependence on fossil fuels has been continuously increasing.
The study also analyzed the driving factors of carbon emissions in countries with different income levels and found that low-income countries are mainly affected by population growth, while the effect of energy carbon intensity on carbon emissions is relatively small. On the contrary, middle and high-income countries rely on reducing energy intensity and carbon intensity of energy consumption to control emissions.
In terms of policy recommendations, research suggests that strengthening international cooperation can accelerate their energy transition and reduce stranded asset risks, and developed countries should lead the low-carbon transition and support BRI countries through climate finance, technology transfer, and cooperation. BRI countries should enhance low-carbon collaboration, with high-income nations sharing technology with lower-income ones. Renewable energy must become a key driver of growth, backed by policies like subsidies and incentives. Low-income BRI countries should develop practical transition roadmaps, gradually shifting from fossil fuels to sustainable energy sources.
This research provides a valuable policy basis for the low-carbon development of the "the Belt and Road" countries, and calls on all countries in the world to work together to tackle climate change and promote global green transformation.
This article was written by Baihe Gu and Jing Liu from the Institutes of Science and Development, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Yuhui Sheng from the School of Public Policy and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Ryna Cui form Global Center for Sustainable Development, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland.
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) No. 72374192 and 72140007, and the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences No. 2022151.
About Energy and Climate Management
Managing the changing climate and energy transition are two closely related scientific and policy challenges of our society. Energy and Climate Management is an open access, peer-reviewed scholarly, policy-oriented academic journal dedicated to publishing interdisciplinary scientific papers on cutting-edge research on contemporary energy and climate management analysis. The Journal is exclusively available via SciOpen and aims to incentivize a meaningful dialogue between academics, think tanks, and public authorities worldwide. Contributions are welcomed covering areas related to energy and climate management, especially policy, economics, governance, and finance. Online submission portal available at https://mc03.manuscriptcentral.com/jecm.
About SciOpen
SciOpen is an open access resource of scientific and technical content published by Tsinghua University Press and its publishing partners. SciOpen provides end-to-end services across manuscript submission, peer review, content hosting, analytics, identity management, and expert advice to ensure each journal’s development. By digitalizing the publishing process, SciOpen widens the reach, deepens the impact, and accelerates the exchange of ideas.
Journal
Energy and Climate Management
Article Title
Carbon emission drivers in the Belt and Road Initiative countries—An empirical analysis based on countries with different income levels
