Friday, January 17, 2025

Canada vows 'Trump tax' on US in response to tariffs: minister

Agence France-Presse
January 17, 2025 

Canada's Foreign Minister Melanie Joly, pictured here at a November 14, 2024 meeting, is warning against a trade war with the United States under incoming President Donald Trump. (© Agence France-Presse)

Americans will be hit by a "Trump tariffs tax" if the US president-elect increases customs duties on Canadian products, the Canadian foreign minister said Friday, pledging a hard-hitting response in any trade war.

Donald Trump, who returns to the White House next week, has said he plans to slap 25 percent tariffs on Canadian imports as part of his economic and foreign policy plans that also target MexicoChina and other trade partners.

"This would be the biggest trade war between Canada and the US in decades," Foreign Minister Melanie Joly said. "The Americans would be starting a trade war against us.

"We are ready to put maximum pressure," she said at a press conference in Washington, adding that Canada has a series of measures prepared if Trump carries out his threat, which would have a major impact on Canadian consumers and jobs.

A government source told AFP that Ottawa is considering higher duties on goods from the United States including steel products, ceramics like toilets and sinks, glassware and orange juice -- in a first phase of tariffs that could be extended.

"We will be strong and unequivocal in our defense of Canada and Canadians," said outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

"The proposed tariffs would put American jobs at risk, raise prices for American consumers, put our collective security at risk and raise costs all across the continent."

One scenario from Scotiabank suggests that a trade war could cause Canadian GDP to fall by more than five percent, increase unemployment significantly and fuel inflation.


'Financial pain': Canadian official warns US gas prices will skyrocket under Trump tariffs


Prices at a gas station in Los Angeles, California on April 9, 2024 (Image: Shutterstock)



January 17, 2025
ALTERNET

Americans may be in for a nasty surprise at the pump when filling up their cars, should President-elect Donald Trump follow through on a key campaign promise.

Trump has pledged to impose a 25% tariff on goods brought in from Canada, as well as 25% for Mexican goods and 10% for Chinese imports. But the Canadian tariff in particular could result in a big hit to Americans' wallets should Trump make good on his tariff threat, according to a recent report in the Canadian Globe and Mail.

“The imposition of tariffs against the U.S.’s closest friend and economic partner will cause financial pain for Canadian families, no doubt,” Canadian Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said during a panel discussion at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “But it will also increase prices of energy and food for American consumers.”

Data from Trading Economics shows that Canada exported more than $131 billion worth of "mineral fuels, oils and distillation products" in 2023 alone. Wilkinson said that a 25% import tax on Canadian oil could mean that gas prices for Midwestern customers could jump by as much as 75 cents per gallon.

"For Midwestern U.S. refineries there are no real economically viable alternatives," Wilkinson said, adding that the U.S. imports roughly four million barrels of Canadian oil each day. "And for U.S. Gulf refineries, the alternative is to purchase from Venezuela – hardly a friendly or stable partner."

Rather than tariffs that could lead to a costly trade war between the U.S. and its northern neighbor, Wilkinson is instead proposing a closer alliance between the United States and Canada particularly focused on petroleum products (including both crude oil and natural gas). He argued that this would help reduce reliance on countries like China and Russia, especially in regions of the U.S. where there are no resources to extract locally.

"Canadian gas supplies parts of the U.S. where local supply does not exist, such as in the Pacific Northwest and California," WIlkinson said during the panel discussion.

In addition to fossil fuels, Canada also supplies the U.S. with uranium exports, which are used for nuclear power plants. According to Wilkinson, this is all the more reason for an energy-specific trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada given that the only other parts of the world where uranium can be obtained have an adversarial relationship with the United States. He added that this arrangement could also be economically beneficial for the U.S. in the long term.

"The U.S. leverages the resource abundance that Canada possesses for energy and minerals that its economy requires," Wilkinson argued. "And it obtains low-cost energy and low-cost minerals, which allows the U.S. to access energy at a discount, then thousands of American workers refine or transform it, and sell it at a higher price to the rest of the world."


Click here to read the Globe and Mail's report in full (subscription required).


Navigating Canada’s future with Trump’s second term in office


By Gitane De Silva
January 17, 2025
DIGITAL JOURNAL

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Donald Trump with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in London on December 3, 2019 (Wikimedia Commons)


Gitane is a thought leader in Digital Journal’s Insight Forum (become a member).


We are just days away from President-elect Trump’s second term in office. With the rhetoric ratcheting up by the day, it can be hard to separate fact from fiction or wishes from reality.

One thing is for sure: President-elect Trump will take office on January 20, 2025. Regardless of your views of him or his policies, the second Trump Administration is coming and it is best to be prepared.

Thinking you won’t be impacted is not an option. The magnitude of the Canada-U.S. relationship is such that even if you don’t do business with the U.S., you will still feel the effects of any trade wars or border closures.

The numbers on tariffs are sobering. Canada’s trade with the U.S. represents more than 75% of our exports, accounting for 20% of our GDP. A proposed 10% tariff on imports into the U.S., as analyzed by Scotiabank, could lead to a 3.6% decline in Canadian GDP.

So what can we do?

Be informed

Many people are saying that we survived the first Trump Administration and the second one “won’t be that bad.” Except that I expect this time to be completely different. Trump is prepared, he has a professional team around him and he is appointing people to key positions. He also controls the White House, Senate and House of Representatives, and inherits a conservative-dominated Supreme Court. Believe him when he says he plans to take action on day one, and don’t expect too many checks and balances on implementing his agenda. And also don’t assume that everything he is pushing for is wrong. Asking Canada to pull its own weight on defence and security matters is a reasonable request, even if the methods are unorthodox.
Be pragmatic

One of my best friends is a psychologist who likes to remind me that in certain situations, you can be right or you can be happy. Sometimes, the person you are dealing with isn’t interested in the facts. You can spend your time arguing every point until you are blue in the face, or you can focus on the few things that really matter and get to yes on those. Canada and the U.S. are neighbours, for better or for worse. The fact that the relationship is asymmetrical doesn’t mean that Canada doesn’t have any levers. We will find a way to work together, not only because we matter deeply to each other, but because we have to.
Be engaged

Like a garden, relationships need tending. It’s unfair to expect the federal government to “fix this.” Democracy is a sport that requires the active participation of its citizens. Engage with your elected officials, business associations, U.S. colleagues, and others in this sphere to advocate for Canada’s interests and support efforts to find solutions instead of simply criticizing from the sidelines.

The next few months are bound to be bumpy, but if we are smart and strategic, we will come out smarter, maybe a bit leaner, and definitely a lot stronger.




Written By Gitane De Silva
Gitane is the Founder and Principal of the consulting firm, GDStrategic. She previously served as the CEO of the Canada Energy Regulator and as Alberta’s Deputy Minister for International and Intergovernmental Relations. Gitane is also a seasoned diplomat and a specialist in Canada-U.S. relations, having served as Alberta’s Senior Representative in Washington, DC, and Canada’s Consul General in Chicago, among other roles. A respected public policy leader, Gitane is a Special Advisor at Blue Rock Law, a Global Fellow with the Canada Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, and a Board Member with the Public Policy Forum. Gitane is a member of Digital Journal's Insight Forum


Residents of Canada, US border towns fear Trump creating divisions


By AFP
January 17, 2025


A border post marks the boundary between Derby Line in the US state of Vermont and its twin town of Stanstead in the Canadian province of Quebec 
- Copyright Parco Archeologico di Pompei press office/AFP Handout


Anne-Marie PROVOST

A shared library, sports fields and fire stations. The American border town of Derby Line and its Canadian twin Stanstead have been living in harmony for more than two centuries, but their bonds are being tested by US President-elect Donald Trump.

“There is uncertainty. Are we going to maintain our good relations?” says Jody Stone, the mayor of Stanstead, Quebec.

A black line that runs across the floor of the Haskell Library, which also serves as a concert hall, marks the US-Canada border.

The front door is on the American side, but Canadians don’t need to go through a customs checkpoint to gain access. Inside, Americans and Canadians regularly cross paths as they browse the library stacks.

“We have very, very strong ties,” says Sylvie Boudreau, president of the library’s board of trustees who lives in Stanstead, adding that Trump taking office on January 20 could bring uncertainty to the

Since they were founded in the late 18th century, the twin towns have relied on each other.

The Canadian town of 3,000 residents would get help from Derby Line’s fire department in emergencies, and similarly would offer help to its American neighbors when needed. They also share water and sewage, an ice rink and basketball courts, and American educators teach Canadian schoolchildren.

But everyone has been on edge since Trump’s election win in November, and even more so after his comments about tightening security at the border to stop illicit drugs and migrants from crossing into the United States, and slapping punishing tariffs on Canadian imports.



– ‘I like Canada’ –



The latter is a real concern for businesses in the region, particularly quarries and companies that sell granite, as well as finished countertops and tombstones to the United States.

Mayor Stone, who owns a distribution company, is preparing for the possibility of Canadian retaliatory duties on American imports.

“I’m preparing myself, I’m making sure to buy as much as possible in Canada because if there’s ever a problem with the Americans, I have to be able to supply my customers in Quebec,” he explains.

On the US side of the border, Trump’s remarks are also disconcerting to Americans, who consider the ties forged since the two towns’ founding to be more important than politics.

Trump’s trolling of Canada, including calling it America’s 51st state, does not make the United States a good neighbor, says Derby Line resident Rachel McDowell.

“I like Canada. I like going there. I don’t have any problems with Canada,” says McDowell, 27, adding that she fears Trump’s polarizing rhetoric will only create divisions.

Canadian Guy Lemay, a 71-year-old retired police officer, is in favor of strengthening the border as requested by the American president-elect. Ottawa has announced a Can$1.3 billion (US$900 million) plan to beef up patrols with helicopters and drones, and deploy more border agents.

But Lemay, who frequently goes to the United States to fill up with gasoline since it is cheaper there, says he is against imposing tariffs.

“It’s going to be rough,” he says. “And it’s the citizens who are going to pay, on both sides.”




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