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Thursday, May 04, 2023

ANALYSIS | Sudan: Questions about Wagner Group as another African country falls prey to mercenaries

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Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in what Russian state media described as the salt mines of Soledar, eastern Ukraine, on January 10 2022. (RIA Novosti)Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in what Russian state media described as the salt mines of Soledar, eastern Ukraine, on January 10 2022. (RIA Novosti)
RIA Novosti

The potential involvement of Russia and the shadowy Wagner Group in Sudan complicates things further. While the group has denied involvement in the current conflict, these denials appear increasingly questionable, write Kristian Gustafson, Dan Lomas, Neveen S Abdalla and Steven Wagner.


After more than a week of intense fighting between Sudanese government troops and paramilitary forces in Khartoum, many Western countries – including the US and UK – are evacuating their nationals from the strife-torn city.

While the conflict has been billed as a clash between rival warlords, there are questions about the role played by the private Russian mercenary company, the Wagner Group. This group, allegedly associated with Russian president Vladimir Putin’s ally Yevgeny Prigozhin – although he has denied any involvement – is heavily engaged in several African countries, exacerbating regional instability.

Aid organisations have warned of a humanitarian crisis as, in recent days, tens of thousands of people have fled Sudan to neighbouring countries that already face their own internal issues.

The potential involvement of Russia and the shadowy Wagner Group in the region complicates things further. While the group has denied involvement in the current conflict in Sudan, these denials appear increasingly questionable.

There is growing evidence of Wagner’s role in arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces which are engaged in a violent power struggle against the Sudanese military. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, this week confirmed Washington’s belief that the group of mercenaries is involved in the conflict, stating:

We do have deep concern about the engagement of the Prigozhin group (the Wagner Group) in Sudan … Its engagement simply brings more death and destruction with it.

Wagner Group in Africa

Students taking the Master’s degree in intelligence and security studies at Brunel University London were tasked with assessing the capabilities and intentions of the Wagner Group (and Russia) in Africa. They collected publicly available material (sometimes referred to as “open source intelligence”) to assess the group’s influence. This information was then subjected to structured analytic techniques used by the UK intelligence community and elsewhere, as part of a Brunel Analytical Simulation Exercise to prepare the students for roles as professional intelligence analysts.

They found numerous examples of how the Wagner Group has expanded its operations in recent years – often at the request of national governments. In January, the UK Ministry of Defence estimated there were as many as 5,000 Wagner operatives across Africa in 2022.

Despite the war in Ukraine, leaked US intelligence documents suggest the group is developing a “confederation” of anti-western states. These include Chad, to the west of Sudan, where US intelligence reports allege that Wagner mercenaries are involved in destabilising the government. Chad is a key ally of the US in this region of Africa.

READ | More than 100 000 refugees flee Sudan amid intense fighting

Sitting directly beneath Chad is the Central African Republic (CAR), where the Russian ambassador Alexander Bikantov said in February there are 1,890 “instructors” involved in fighting between the government and rebel troops.

The Wagner Group has reportedly had a presence in CAR for several years, initially providing training and back-up services and latterly involved in combat operations against rebel insurgencies. According to the International Crisis Group, although the CAR’s president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, has denied signing a contract with the Wagner Group, “its presence … is barely a secret”.

The Crisis Group’s report continued:

Rather than eradicating armed groups, the contractors are perpetrating abuses that increasingly drive violence in the provinces and fuel guerrilla warfare against government troops by rebels scattered in the bush.

Wagner mercenaries are also reportedly active in Sudan’s north-western neighbour, Libya, which has been in a state of armed chaos since the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi in 2012. In 2020, the BBC reported a leaked UN document saying there were 1,200 Wagner personnel in Libya. They have reportedly been supporting rebel warlord Khalifa Hafter’s forces against the Tripoli-based government, alongside other mercenaries from Belarus, Moldova, Serbia and Ukraine.

Shifting influence

In Mali, the Wagner Group has supported the military junta to enforce its rule, with a large base at Bamako International Airport. The group’s increasing influence in that part of Africa has coincided with a dilution of western involvement. In February 2022, the French government announced the withdrawal of its forces after nine years of trying, and failing, to counter Islamist insurgency.

In March 2022, Malian state forces – reportedly supported by “suspected Russian mercenaries” (although no group was identified) – massacred civilians and militant fighters. Calls by the UN Security Council for an independent investigation into the massacre were blocked by Russia, and the UN was not granted access to the site.

There is also growing evidence of the Wagner Group’s presence in Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Burkina Faso has experienced two coups in the last 12 months, and is facing escalating threats from Islamic State-linked groups.

READ | Breakthrough: Sudan military leaders agree to nominate representatives for peace talks

Russia is courting Burkina Faso through military and political endeavours, and has stated its intent to aid nations in the Sahelian region in combating the jihadist threat in their countries. DRC, Mali, CAR and Sudan have all abstained or voted against requiring Russia to remove troops from Ukraine.

It’s unclear to what extent the Wagner Group does the Kremlin’s bidding as Prigozhin himself has repeatedly denied any involvement. But as a private enterprise, the profits for them in Africa are spectacular. And, as with so many of the biggest Russian businesses, Wagner’s successes are owed to the Russian state and the kleptocratic elites who are likely to share in its revenue.

The Kremlin provides direct support where profit interests align with Russia’s political interests. At the moment, the troubled countries in which the Wagner Group is alleged to be involved in conflict and destabilisation provide resources and political support at the UN, which are important for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Further regional instability is to be expected.


Brunel MA students Laura Collins, Freya De Santis and Bobby Payne assisted with the research for this articleThe Conversation

Kristian Gustafson, , Brunel University LondonDan Lomas, Lecturer in Intelligence and Security Studies, Brunel University LondonNeveen S Abdalla, Lecturer, International Relations, Defence, and Security, Brunel University London, and Steven Wagner, Senior Lecturer in International Security, Brunel University London

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Saturday, January 21, 2023

Pro-Ukrainian activists in Serbia file criminal complaint against Wagner group


A mural depicting Wagner private military group in seen on a wall in Belgrade

Thu, January 19, 2023

BELGRADE (Reuters) - Serbian and pro-Ukraine activists filed criminal complaints against Russia's Wagner paramilitary group and its supporters on Thursday, accusing it of recruiting Serbs to fight in Ukraine.

Cedomir Stojkovic, a Belgrade-based lawyer who also leads the October civic group, said that those accused include Russia's ambassador to Serbia, Alexander Botsan-Kharchenko, and Aleksandar Vulin, head of Serbia's state Security and Information Agency (BIA).

“We have reasonable suspicion that Vulin ... gave orders, directives and guidelines that the activities of the Wagner Group in Serbia should not be prevented,” he said.

Stojkovic said that Botsan-Kharchenko, who enjoys diplomatic immunity, could not be prosecuted in Serbia, but that he should be ordered to leave the country.

Once a criminal complaint is filed, it is up to the state prosecutor to decide whether or not to proceed.

Neither Russian embassy to Belgrade, nor the BIA replied to requests for comment.

Petr Nikitin, the head of the Russian Democratic Society, a group that opposes policies of the Kremlin, said those who spread hatred against Ukraine must be prosecuted.

“Spreading hatred among Serbs towards Ukrainians, towards a people who have never done anything bad to Serbia ... is a crime," he told reporters.

According to observers, dozens of Serb volunteers and mercenaries took part in the fighting alongside pro-Russian forces in Ukraine since 2014.

The Serbian legislature prohibits participation of its citizens in conflicts abroad and several people have been sentenced for doing so.

On Monday, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic criticised Russian websites and social media groups for publishing advertisements in the Serbian language in which the Wagner group, led by Evgeny Prigozhin, an ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, calls on volunteers to join its ranks.

Vucic also denied allegations that the Wagner group has a presence in Serbia where pro-Kremlin and ultranationalist organisations have long supported the invasion of Ukraine.

Serbia is a candidate to join the European Union, but it also has close ties with Russia, a Slavic and Orthodox Christian ally, and entirely depends on gas imports from Russia.

Earlier this week, Prigozhin denied his organisation has a presence in Serbia.

Although it has repeatedly condemned Russia's Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations and several other international forums, Belgrade has so far refused to impose sanctions against Moscow.

After big Ukrainian gains in the conflict in the second half of 2022, the frontlines have largely been frozen in place over the past two months, with neither side making big gains despite heavy casualties in intense trench warfare.

Wagner has taken a leading role in fighting near the eastern city of Bakhmut and Prigozhin claimed on Thursday his forces had seized the village of Klishchiivka on Bakhmut's outskirts. Kyiv has previously denied that the settlement has fallen. Reuters could not confirm the situation there.

(Reporting by Aleksandar Vasovic; Editing by Nick Macfie)


Russia’s Wagner mercenary company may earn up to $1 billion by gold mining in Africa, Politico


Russia is mining gold in Africa

Read also: Ukraine's army eliminates Wagner mercenaries’ headquarters and field depot in Soledar – video report

Wagner has considerably expanded its mining business in the Central African Republic to reap up to $ 1 billion in profits. The Western official told Politico that money will highly likely go for buying weapons and paying mercenaries.

The United States has for years warned that Wagner Group has been using mining profits to support the Kremlin regime, evading Western sanctions. New data about Wagner PMC's projects in Central Africa show continuous growth of profit to fund the Russian full-scale war in Ukraine, Politico wrote.

According to the diplomatic cable acquired by the editorial staff, Wagner Group has turned a gold mine located near the town of Bambari into a massive complex that spans eight production zones, with the largest one of over 60 meters (200 feet) deep.

Read also: Wagner PMC sued over recruiting Serbs

The United States says the group is intended for long-term exploration as it fortified the mine, constructed bridges with truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns at key locations.

The CAR bans U.N. peacemakers from launching drones at the mine's location with some of them even shot down by the country's military. U.S. officials consider this evidence of the political power of the Wagner Group in the country.

Read also: Russia’s Wagner mercenary company recruiting political prisoners from Chechnya, says Ukrainian intel

At the beginning of the summer U.S. newspaper the New York Times reported that Wagner PMC owns several gold mines in Sudan to raise money for the Kremlin's regime amid sanctions and pressure from the West. "Wagnerites" also use natural resources from other countries, Politico reported earlier.

Read also: Wagner Group has brought in more than 38,000 prison inmates: Podolyak

U.S. National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby has said that the Wagner Group's owner and Russian oligarch Yevgeniy Prigozhin is spending more than $100 million per month to fund his group’s operations inside Ukraine.

According to the U.S. estimates, about 50,000 Wagner's mercenaries are located in Ukraine. About 10,000 of them are contract soldiers, while others were recruited in prisons.

U.S. cable: Russian paramilitary group set to get cash infusion from expanded African mine


Marc Hofer/AP Photo

Erin Banco
Thu, January 19, 2023

The Wagner Group, a paramilitary organization linked to Russia, is expanding its mining projects in Africa to bring in millions to prop up its military operations in Ukraine, according to a Western official and a U.S. cable obtained by POLITICO.

Over the past year, Wagner has significantly expanded its work in one country — the Central African Republic — where it could see mining profits soar to almost $1 billion, according to the official and the diplomatic cable. That funding will likely be used by the group to acquire new weapons and fighters, the official said.

The group, owned by Russian oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, engages in paramilitary activities across the globe, including in Africa and the Middle East, and has become increasingly active on the frontlines in Ukraine. The Kremlin denies any official link to Wagner.

U.S. officials have for years warned that Wagner has been using mining profits to help prop up the Russian state amid Western sanctions. The details about the projects in CAR show that Wagner’smining efforts are becoming increasingly lucrative for the organization andcreating a pipeline of funding for Russia’s war against Ukraine.

Wagner set up shop in CAR in 2018, creating a cultural center and striking several deals to help secure mining sites, including at the Ndassima gold mine located near the town of Bambari in the middle of the country. Since then, Wagner has turned the once-artisanal mine into a massive complex, according to the cable.

Today, the mine spans eight production zones in various stages of development — the largest estimated to be approximately over 200 feet deep, according to the cable. The U.S. has assessed that the group is helping construct the site for long-term exploitation and has fortified the mine, constructing bridges at river crossings and with truck-mounted anti-aircraft guns at key locations.

“These new developments that they're taking indicate long-term plans for the mine,” said Catrina Doxsee, associate director and associate fellow for the Transnational Threats Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a D.C.-based think tank. “The fact that they are establishing an expanded mining operation, that they're establishing these long-term plans, I think really points to how integrated they've become with the local military and the level of dependency that the CAR government has on them.”

The National Security Council declined to comment. The State Department said in an emailed statement that the U.S. is pursuing “multiple avenues to counter the Wagner group’s illicit transnational activities.” That has included sanctions on Prigozhin and Wagner’s network.

In December, the Commerce Department implemented export controls to try and block the group’s ability to acquire new weapons. Officials in the U.S. are in the process preparing additional measures to punish the group, another person familiar with the matter said, who requested to remain anonymous to discuss potential forthcoming government announcements.

The Central African Republic is now refusing to grant overflight clearances of the mine of unmanned aerial vehicles to U.N. peacekeepers in the country, according to the cable. Several of them have taken fire from the CAR army. U.S. officials believe this is a sign that Wagner is gaining political control in the country, the cable said.

Wagner has a history of using force to push through its mining interests in Africa. In 2020, it sent fighters to the Ndassima mine to secure the area. In 2021, the group was accused of summarily executing rebels and other people living in the area to push them out from their homes in order to develop the mine. Since then, Wagner has operated under the cover of a Madagascar-registered company, according to the cable.


THERE IS A WORD FOR THAT; GHOULS
Russia’s Wagner Group Accused of Ripping Off Grieving Families

Allison Quinn
Thu, January 19, 2023 

Igor Russak/Reuters

While Russia’s Wagner Group embarks on a frenzied recruiting spree after massive losses in Ukraine, pissed-off family members of dead recruits say they’ve been ripped off by the shady band of mercenaries.

“I buried my son, and haven’t gotten any kind of payment for him yet, not a cent! I will not be quiet about this!” said Yelena, the mother of Sergei Shevchenko, a prison inmate in the Krasnoyarsk region who died after being recruited by Wagner.

Local authorities in the town of Kodinsk announced Shevchenko’s death and wrote that the family was in need of “financial support” to give the former inmate a proper burial, according to local media. This despite Wagner promising to cover burial expenses and issue compensation for war deaths.

Yelena said she didn’t know that her son, who’d been jailed on a repeat drunk driving offense, had been swept up by Wagner until he’d already been taken away to join the war.

“I’ve already raised a fuss with the military registration and enlistment office, and reported it to our local newspaper … . If this ‘Wagner’ doesn’t give me anything, I will seek him out!” she said.

Other families have made similar complaints. After Nikita and Alexander Arychenkov, two brothers from the Krasnodar region, were killed while fighting for Wagner in late December, their sister took to social media to shoot down claims the family could at least take consolation in the fact they now have “material prosperity.”

“Nobody has paid [us] anything,” she said.













Russia’s Shadow Army Exposed and Humiliated by Bogus ‘Recruit’

The problem has apparently been widespread enough that it served as inspiration for graffiti in Voronezh, St. Petersburg, and other cities where messages went up demanding Wagner pay up on its promises.

Wagner founder Yevgeny Prigozhin responded to the allegations late last month, saying through his press service that the graffiti must have been done by someone with a grudge against him.

“All fighters get paid down to the last penny,” he said. “All the dead receive the funds written in the contract. That is why not a single person in this world can have a complaint against me regarding payment,” he said.

It was not immediately clear if the same rules apply for those who are executed by the group over perceived betrayals or infractions.

Human rights groups and former members have spoken out about several executions being carried out within the private army to force other fighters not to step out of line. The most high-profile case linked to the group, of course, was the brutal sledgehammer execution of former member Yevgeny Nuzhin, filmed and circulated by a Wagner-linked channel on Telegram to demonstrate the group’s “retribution” last November.

An anonymous Wagner fighter told the VchK-OGPu Telegram channel earlier this month that the group doesn’t issue payouts for the executions, or in cases where there is “no body.”

He also said the group has subtler ways of executing its own undesirables.

“As a ‘nice’ type of execution, [there could be] an explicitly fatal task, where it is basically impossible to survive: Storming positions as far as you can go; reconnaissance by fire without a chance to return, etc.,” he said.

“It has become kind of a tradition.”






















Gains by Wagner Group in Ukraine give ‘Putin’s chef,’ Yevgeny Prigozhin, greater Kremlin clout

Alexander Nazaryan
·Senior White House Correspondent
Thu, January 19, 2023

A pedestrian in Belgrade, Serbia, walks past a mural depicting Russia's paramilitary mercenaries, labeled "Wagner Group — Russian knights" on Nov. 17, 2022. 
(Oliver Bunic/AFP via Getty Images)

A shadowy paramilitary outfit is making gains for Russia in eastern Ukraine — and, in the process, apparently exacerbating tensions back in Moscow, where military chiefs are hesitant to give credit to the influential Kremlin insider responsible for the effort.

The Wagner Group, as the militia is known, is operated by the businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Frustrated by months of military setbacks, Putin tacitly allowed Prigozhin last year to recruit soldiers for the Wagner Group from prisons, offering them freedom in exchange for service.

The recent military successes of Wagner fighters have stoked suspicions that Prigozhin is hoping to assert himself politically at a time when few other Kremlin advisers can credibly point to victories of their own.

To be sure, Prigozhin’s successes are modest. But as far as the Kremlin is concerned, at least they are not defeats that have to be explained away with convoluted and unconvincing conspiracy theories by state television propagandists.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group, attends the funeral on Dec. 24, 2022, at the Beloostrovskoye cemetery outside St. Petersburg, of Dmitry Menshikov, a Wagner Group fighter who died in a special operation in Ukraine. (AP Photo)

In recent days, the Wagner Group appears to have taken the village of Soledar, north of the fiercely contested city of Bakhmut in the Donbas region of Eastern Ukraine.

“Incremental progress” in the Bakhmut area has come “at a great cost,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told Yahoo News at a press briefing Wednesday. But considering that Russia had expected to conquer the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv in a matter of days when it first invaded in February last year, any progress at all is significant.

Although the Wagner Group has long operated in Syria and Africa, where it bolsters despotic regimes, its commitment to Ukraine appears to signal an acknowledgment that traditional means of waging war have failed, if largely because Russia’s moribund military has been in desperate need of reform for decades.

Both Prigozhin and the Wagner Group were sanctioned by the U.S. and European governments last spring, with the State Department accusing him of forging “a trail of lies and human rights abuses.”

The Wagner Group is beholden neither to Kremlin bureaucracy nor to history. But by registering as a publicly traded company earlier this week, Prigozhin appears to be seeking official recognition for his army of irregulars.


Men in military uniform, purportedly soldiers of the Wagner Group with its head, Yevgeny Prigozhin, center, pose in a salt mine, apparently in Soledar, in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, in this handout picture released Jan. 10.
 (Press service of "Concord"/Handout via Reuters)

“It’s a brutal fight that he is waging,” Kirby said of Prigozhin, describing the Wagner Group’s offensive as part of an “extravagant effort to increase his influence with the Kremlin.” He also suggested that Prigozhin’s interest in Soledar was not purely strategic, as the town is home to enormous salt and gypsum mines. Such a conflation of interests would not be new: In Sudan, the Wagner Group plundered a gold mine while suppressing democratic dissent.

A native of St. Petersburg like Putin, the 61-year-old Prigozhin is a restaurateur and caterer who started out selling hot dogs. He earned the nickname “Putin’s chef” for the bevy of government catering contracts, including for schools and the military, that eventually came his way.

A pioneer of information warfare, he started the Internet Research Agency, the St. Petersburg troll farm that U.S. intelligence officials believe interfered in the 2016 presidential election.

Prigozhin recently owned up — proudly — to that feat. Though himself a likely billionaire, Prigozhin has little in common with the oligarchs who support Putin but see the Ukraine war as an unseemly distraction from lives of leisure in London or New York. Sarcastic and profane, Prigozhin recalls an earlier, less polished style of political leadership that may appeal to older Russians.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, left, assists Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin at a dinner with foreign scholars and journalists at the restaurant Cheval Blanc on the premises of an equestrian complex outside Moscow on Nov. 11, 2011. (Misha Japaridze/Reuters)

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has all but disappeared from view, but Prigozhin has eagerly courted public attention. Last November, after a Wagner Group defector was executed with a sledgehammer, Prigozhin adapted the tool as a kind of symbol, even sending one to members of the European Parliament, its handle smeared with fake blood, after an effort there to brand the Wagner Group as a terrorist organization.

Earlier this week, Prigozhin similarly threatened supposed traitors within Russia — including, he suggested, within Putin’s own administration — who he predicted would try to flee to the United States: “They won’t take you in,” he warned. “And then you will come to us, where Wagner’s sledgehammer will already be waiting for you.”

(When asked for an interview last year, representatives for Prigozhin’s Concord Group told Yahoo News that Prigozhin would only accede to the request if Yahoo News sent a reporter to St. Petersburg and also brought colleagues from major American outlets.)

Himself hardened by a nine-year prison sentence handed down in 1981 by Soviet authorities for a range of crimes — these included, according to court documents, theft, robbery and at least one assault — Prigozhin spent much of the fall of 2022 in Russian prisons recruiting inmates for the Wagner Group. He spoke to them in frank, unadorned terms about what they could expect if they agreed to serve in Ukraine.

“If you arrive in Ukraine and decide it's not for you, we will execute you,” he warns in one such recording. Disseminated online, the footage of Prigozhin’s unusual efforts attracted outrage in the West, but also seemed to indicate that he was willing to risk a personal involvement that other Kremlin officials simply would not undertake.

A man walks in front of a destroyed school in the city of Bakhmut, in the eastern Ukranian region of Donbas on May 28, 2022, on the 94th day of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 
(Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images)

In Foreign Policy magazine, two Eurasia experts, Peter Rough and Can Kasapoglu, predicted that Prigozhin was making a “power play” intended specifically to challenge Shoigu’s leadership of the military,

Prigozhin ultimately managed to recruit an estimated 40,000 prisoners into the Wagner Group. They were deployed late last year in the Bakhmut region, where Russia has been concentrating its attacks. A senior Pentagon official acknowledged in mid-December that the fighting around Bakhmut had become “very tough,” in part thanks to the ragtag Wagner forces.

The capture of Soledar appears to be the fruit of Prigozhin’s efforts, but that effort is predicated on a disregard for human life that most Western military leaders would simply not countenance. “They continue to throw body after body into this effort,” Kirby said of the Russian advances around Soledar, which he assessed as having been “largely driven” by the Wagner Group.

Last week, credit for Soledar became a point of contention between Prigozhin and the Kremlin, which tried to downplay the Wagner Group’s role, claiming that regular forces were responsible for taking the town. The ensuing disagreement between Prigozhin and the Kremlin played out publicly, in contrast to most Kremlin disputes, which are customarily conducted behind the citadel’s soaring red walls.


John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, addresses a press briefing at the White House on Jan. 12 in Washington, D.C. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images)

“We believe that those tensions remain,” Kirby told Yahoo News, adding that the “rift” between Prigozhin and officials like Shoigu “has not healed.”

With his profile elevated, Prigozhin has become the subject of inevitable political speculation, especially since Putin’s own future — as well as his health — appears more uncertain today than it has been in years.

“Prigozhin, or anyone else for that matter, dare not raise the question of a post-Putin Russia for obvious reasons, but it’s safe to assume that the scenario has crossed his mind,” Rajan Menon, a senior scholar at Defense Priorities, a Washington, D.C., policy center, told Yahoo News.

Prigozhin is hardly the first prominent Russian to see the invasion of Ukraine as an opportunity for advancement. But he may be among the more politically skilled. “He certainly hopes Wagner’s success will boost his standing with Putin, but the risk is that he may stoke Putin’s suspicions if he gets too much political attention in the public space — and that won’t work well for him,” Menon wrote to Yahoo News in an email.


Russian President Vladimir Putin, center, with the governor of St. Petersburg, Alexander Beglov, left, and First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov, right, enter the Obukhov State Plant in St. Petersburg for a meeting with workers on Jan. 18. (Contributor/Getty Images)

Whatever his ambitions, Prigozhin’s influence is sustained by the lives of wayward Russians who form the wave upon wave of fighters whose sheer persistence is meant to exhaust Ukraine’s defenders.

Still, given the infamous brutality of Russian prisons, the mere promise of freedom may be enough to entice more recruits. As long as the Wagner Group continues to muster new forces, Prigozhin's influence with a Kremlin hungry for victories is bound to increase.

One recent clip posted to social media shows Prigozhin addressing former prisoners who had fulfilled their military service and were preparing to head home.

“I told you I needed your criminal talents to kill the enemy in war,” Prigozhin says in the footage, which serves as a kind of recruiting video for the Wagner Group. “Now, criminal talents are no longer needed.”

He then tells the outgoing soldiers who surround him that they should do all they can to avoid returning to prison.

“Try to be a little more careful,” Prigozhin says.

Friday, April 28, 2023

Sudan: questions about Wagner Group involvement as another African country falls prey to Russian mercenaries

THE CONVERSATION
Thu, April 27, 2023 

After more than a week of intense fighting between Sudanese government troops and paramilitary forces in Khartoum, many western countries – including the US and UK – are evacuating their nationals from the strife-torn city.

While the conflict has been billed as a clash between rival warlords, there are questions about the role played by the private Russian mercenary company, the Wagner Group. This group, allegedly associated with Russian president Vladimir Putin’s ally Yevgeny Prigozhin – although he has denied any involvement – is heavily engaged in several African countries, exacerbating regional instability.

Read more: Sudan: violence between army and militia is a symptom of an old disease that is destroying Africa

Aid organisations have warned of a humanitarian crisis as, in recent days, tens of thousands of people have fled Sudan to neighbouring countries that already face their own internal issues.

The potential involvement of Russia and the shadowy Wagner Group in the region complicates things further. While the group has denied involvement in the current conflict in Sudan, these denials appear increasingly questionable.

There is growing evidence of Wagner’s role in arming the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces which are engaged in a violent power struggle against the Sudanese military. The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, this week confirmed Washington’s belief that the group of mercenaries is involved in the conflict, stating:

We do have deep concern about the engagement of the Prigozhin group (the Wagner Group) in Sudan … Its engagement simply brings more death and destruction with it.
Wagner Group in Africa

Students taking the Master’s degree in intelligence and security studies at Brunel University London were tasked with assessing the capabilities and intentions of the Wagner Group (and Russia) in Africa. They collected publicly available material (sometimes referred to as “open source intelligence”) to assess the group’s influence. This information was then subjected to structured analytic techniques used by the UK intelligence community and elsewhere, as part of a Brunel Analytical Simulation Exercise to prepare the students for roles as professional intelligence analysts.

They found numerous examples of how the Wagner Group has expanded its operations in recent years – often at the request of national governments. In January, the UK Ministry of Defence estimated there were as many as 5,000 Wagner operatives across Africa in 2022.

Despite the war in Ukraine, leaked US intelligence documents suggest the group is developing a “confederation” of anti-western states. These include Chad, to the west of Sudan, where US intelligence reports allege that Wagner mercenaries are involved in destabilising the government. Chad is a key ally of the US in this region of Africa.

Sitting directly beneath Chad is the Central African Republic (CAR), where the Russian ambassador Alexander Bikantov said in February there are 1,890 “instructors” involved in fighting between the government and rebel troops.

The Wagner Group has reportedly had a presence in CAR for several years, initially providing training and back-up services and latterly involved in combat operations against rebel insurgencies. According to the International Crisis Group, although the CAR’s president, Faustin-Archange Touadéra, has denied signing a contract with the Wagner Group, “its presence … is barely a secret”.

The Crisis Group’s report continued:
Rather than eradicating armed groups, the contractors are perpetrating abuses that increasingly drive violence in the provinces and fuel guerrilla warfare against government troops by rebels scattered in the bush.

Wagner mercenaries are also reportedly active in Sudan’s north-western neighbour, Libya, which has been in a state of armed chaos since the ousting of Muammar Gaddafi in 2012. In 2020, the BBC reported a leaked UN document saying there were 1,200 Wagner personnel in Libya. They have reportedly been supporting rebel warlord Khalifa Hafter’s forces against the Tripoli-based government, alongside other mercenaries from Belarus, Moldova, Serbia and Ukraine.
Shifting influence

In Mali, the Wagner Group has supported the military junta to enforce its rule, with a large base at Bamako International Airport. The group’s increasing influence in that part of Africa has coincided with a dilution of western involvement. In February 2022, the French government announced the withdrawal of its forces after nine years of trying, and failing, to counter Islamist insurgency.

In March 2022, Malian state forces – reportedly supported by “suspected Russian mercenaries” (although no group was identified) – massacred civilians and militant fighters. Calls by the UN Security Council for an independent investigation into the massacre were blocked by Russia, and the UN was not granted access to the site.

There is also growing evidence of the Wagner Group’s presence in Burkina Faso and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Burkina Faso has experienced two coups in the last 12 months, and is facing escalating threats from Islamic State-linked groups.

Russia is courting Burkina Faso through military and political endeavours, and has stated its intent to aid nations in the Sahelian region in combating the jihadist threat in their countries. DRC, Mali, CAR and Sudan have all abstained or voted against requiring Russia to remove troops from Ukraine.

Read more: Burkina Faso coup raises questions about growing Russian involvement in west Africa

It’s unclear to what extent the Wagner Group does the Kremlin’s bidding as Prigozhin himself has repeatedly denied any involvement. But as a private enterprise, the profits for them in Africa are spectacular. And, as with so many of the biggest Russian businesses, Wagner’s successes are owed to the Russian state and the kleptocratic elites who are likely to share in its revenue.

The Kremlin provides direct support where profit interests align with Russia’s political interests. At the moment, the troubled countries in which the Wagner Group is alleged to be involved in conflict and destabilisation provide resources and political support at the UN, which are important for Russia’s war on Ukraine. Further regional instability is to be expected.


Dan Lomas, Lecturer in Intelligence and Security Studies, Brunel University London,

Kristian Gustafson, Brunel University London, 

Neveen S Abdalla, Lecturer, International Relations, Defence, and Security, Brunel University London, 

Steven Wagner, Senior Lecturer in International Security, Brunel University London

Brunel MA students Laura Collins, Freya De Santis and Bobby Payne assisted with the research for this article


This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Sudan: Russia's Wagner Group and the grab for power and gold

Russian mercenaries appear to be working closely with the military junta in Sudan. Billions of dollars have allegedly been circumvented in exchange for political and military support from the Kremlin.

Philip Obaji Jr.
DW
TODAY

"The Russians buy almost everything," Omar Sheriff, a miner in the northeastern Sudanese town of Al-Ibaidiya, told DW shortly before the current conflict between Sudan's armed forces and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group began.

Sheriff is one of dozens of artisanal miners in Al-Ibaidiya, a town on the bank of the Nile River located about 400 kilometers (248 miles) north of the capital Khartoum, who labor in searing heat to cut gold from rocks in the desert. They separate the gold from the rocks using chemical processes involving toxic substances like cyanide leaching and mercury that can harm both the miners and the environment.

Most of the gold ends up in a processing plant 16 kilometers away run by a company owned by the founder of Russia's paramilitary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, a close friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"The Russians can pay close to $4,000 (€3,620) for a truckload of gold," says Sheriff. "They are often desperate to buy everything."

Wagner Group in Sudan at dictator's invitation

The Wagner Group first surfaced in Sudan in 2017 at the invitation of then-President Omar al-Bashir following a meeting between the Sudanese dictator and Putin in Moscow.

The private military organization set up Meroe Gold, a Prigozhin-controlled company which was later sanctioned by the United States, to run its operations in the African nation. Shortly afterwards, it began to explore Sudan's gold resources.

In the process, Wagner began to build a relationship with General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemeti, and his paramilitary RSF. Members of the RSF, according to locals in Al-Ibaidiya, gave protection to Russian merchants who sought to buy gold from miners. The Russian-owned gold processing plant is also said to be guarded by several RSF paramilitaries who work closely with Russian security personnel believed to be from the Wagner Group.

"For more than four years we've seen RSF soldiers working closely with the Russians," Mustafa El Tahir, who has been mining gold in al-Ibaidiya since 2018, told DW. "Anywhere the Russians go, RSF goes with them."

In 2021, as much as 32.7 tons of Sudanese gold worth about $1.9 billion was reportedly unaccounted for
Ashraf Shazly/AFP/Getty Images

Wagner maintained its relationship with Hemeti after the Sudanese pro-democracy movement toppled al-Bashir in 2019. His ouster paved the way for a transitional civilian government. That relationship appeared to be instrumental in overthrowing the civilian-led government nearly two years later. Following the coup, allegedly supported by Russia, army General Abdel Fattah Burhan took over as military leader making Hemeti his deputy.

Plane with gold bullion

Since the military's return to power, Wagner's collaboration with Hemeti has picked up. In February 2022, as Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, Hemeti traveled to Moscow to give his backing to Russian plans to set up a navy base on the Red Sea, a move Burhan refused to endorse.

On that trip to Russia, the plane Hemeti traveled in was also transporting gold bullion, according to the New York Times, citing two senior Western officials. During the talks in Moscow, Hemeti reportedly requested help from Russian officials to acquire military equipment.

In 2021, as much as 32.7 tons of Sudanese gold worth about $1.9 billion was unaccounted for, according to a report by US broadcaster CNN. The report also found evidence that shows that Russia has worked closely with Sudan's military junta to ensure that billions of dollars in gold bypass the Sudanese treasury in exchange for the Kremlin's political and military backing.

"All the while, this corrupt scheme involving the Wagner Group and the military government has been supervised by Hemeti," says Ahmed Abdallah, a Sudanese human rights campaigner in exile in Germany. "It always felt like both men [Hemeti and Burhan] were never on the same page regarding how to do business with Wagner."

Now, a new report suggests that Wagner has been supplying the RSF with missiles to support their fight against the Sudanese military.

Last week, CNN reported that the open-source group "All Eyes on Wagner'' had analyzed satellite images which appeared to show a Russian transport plane shuttling between two key Libyan airbases controlled by Khalifa Hifter, leader of the eastern Libyan National Army, who is backed by the Wagner Group.

Wagner Group's dealings remain murky


The report alleged that an increase in activity by the Wagner Group at the airbases suggests that there was a plan by both Russia and Hifter to back the RSF even before the conflict started.

"Behind Hemeti's push could be the Wagner Group, whose personnel was arrested and accused of gold smuggling by the Burhan regime just before the fighting began," Yaser Abdulrehman, a Sudanese lawyer told DW. "Hemeti and Wagner are like Siamese twins."

But the Wagner Group's true intentions appear to remain unclear.

"While it appears that the Wagner Group has offered Hemeti military assistance, the Wagner Group's involvement in this conflict remains opaque," Isabella Currie, a researcher on the Wagner Group, told DW.

"Caution is advised in drawing conclusions about a potential alliance between Wagner and Hemeti, or Wagner's role in stoking civil unrest in Sudan. Instability in Sudan may not serve to benefit either the Putin regime or Prigozhin's network, particularly if the conflict begins to impact Sudan's border with the Central African Republic, where Prigozhin has established relationships and resource extraction contracts," she said.

Edited by: Rob Mudge

Sunday, August 14, 2022

 

WHAT ABOUT ERIC PRINCE?!

Guest Post: “Wagner Group Atrocities – Holding Russia Accountable Under Prosecutor v. Tadic?”  

Today’s guest post is by Army judge advocate LTC Alex Kostin (writing in his personal capacity).  He argues for accountability for the atrocities allegedly committed in Ukraine by the Russian military company, the Wagner Group, and provides a path for doing so. 

What is the Wagner Group?  Last April the BBC reported on its origins and said this:

“British military intelligence says 1,000 mercenaries from the Russian private military company, the Wagner Group, are being deployed to eastern Ukraine. The group has been active over the past eight years in Ukraine, Syria and African countries, and has repeatedly been accused of war crimes and human rights abuses.”

Notably, in the U.S. view merely being a mercenary is not illegal under international law.  The DoD Law of War Manual (¶ 4.21) says:

“The act of being a mercenary is not a crime in customary international law nor in any treaty to which the United States is a Party.Under the customary law of war and the GPW, “mercenaries” receive the rights, duties, and liabilities of combatant status on the same basis as other persons.” 

The U.S. does recognize that there are a “number of treaty provisions [that] are intended to repress mercenary activities” but points out that the “United States has not accepted any such provision because these efforts are not consistent with fundamental principles of the law of war.” (¶ 4.21.1).   

For a variety of technical and other reasons, even those States parties to treaties intended to repress mercenary activities have nevertheless had little success in prosecuting the Group for being mercenaries.

However, the focus of this post is not simply about being a “mercenary,” per se, but rather the commission of war crimes.  On that score the U.S. insists:

“Mercenaries must comply with the law of war and may be tried and punished for violations of the law of war on the same basis as other persons. States that employ mercenaries are responsible for their conduct, including their compliance with the law of war.” (¶ 4.21) 

LTC Kostin concludes that the Group is, de facto, an entity of the Russian state, and it is responsible for the Wagner Group’s actions. 

Importantly, he further contends that the International Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY) case of the Prosecutor v. Tadic provides a useful blueprint as to how a prosecution might be framed, to include holding the Russian state accountable. 

Lots to think about here, so take a look at his argument!

Wagner Group Atrocities – Holding Russia Accountable Under Prosecutor v. Tadic 

by LTC Alex A, Kostin, USAR, JAGC*

February 24, 2022, marked a dark page in the world’s history when Russia launched an unprovoked war against Ukraine. The international community should not let Russia get away with the gross international humanitarian law (IHL) violations committed by its Wagner mercenaries, Russia’s de facto state actors. 

There is clear evidence that Russian state actors, such as the military, have violated IHL, and the recent buzz surrounding the International Criminal Court (ICC) Prosecutor’s opened investigation suggests the international community will not let these abuses go entirely unexcused (though it is relevant to note the ICC is a court of individual criminal responsibility, not state responsibility).

However, the international community must also punish the IHL violations committed by Russia’s de facto state actors, the Wagner mercenaries.  Wagner, while an officially private military contractor, is, I will show below, a paramilitary group under overall Russian state control acting as a de facto unit of the Russian military. 

Were an international tribunal adjudicating such atrocities to apply Tadic’s “overall control” test, it would likely succeed in holding Moscow responsible for the Wagner group’s actions.

In recent years, Wagner has committed gross IHL violations in Ukraine and worldwide. 

Wagner is actively fighting in Ukraine after sending most of its foot soldiers there.  To boost its Ukrainian presence, the group opened its ranks to men with criminal histories, those with unpaid debts sought by Russian law enforcement, and foreigners. While the current war in Ukraine is its latest battlefield, the group participated in Russia’s proxy wars in eastern Ukraine in 2014-15, Libya, and Syria (where it attacked American-backed forces resulting in mass casualties among the mercenaries).

The group maintains an active presence in the Central African Republic (per the 2019 investigation by Novaya Gazeta, Wagner was suspected of murdering Russian journalists who came to investigate its activities there) and other African countries.  Further, Wagner’s atrocities are well documented. In 2017, an Assad army deserter was brutally murdered by Wagner members.  

BBC collected at least two eyewitness’ accounts that Wagner intentionally killed prisoners in Libya in 2019. As of March of 2022, Wagner has been accused of murdering 300 civilians in Mali and scores of civilians in the Central African Republic

Prior to the war in Ukraine, Russia was able to avoid accountability for Wagner’s atrocities.

The Russian state has consistently denied any connection to the group, and no authoritative tribunal has made a formal ruling regarding attribution. In September of 2021, Putin’s spokesperson falsely claimed Russian private military companies were providing solely “consultative and security” services.

Putin falsely claimed that private Russian military companies in Syria had nothing to do with the Russian stateThese denials indicate that Russia is aware of the 1986 International Court of Justice decision, Nicaragua v. United States of America (“Nicaragua”).

Nicaragua created an exceptionally high attribution threshold. Under Nicaragua, a paramilitary unit can only be found a de facto state organ when 1) the state paid, financed, and coordinated/supervised the group’s actions, and 2) the state “specifically ‘directed or enforced’ the perpetuation” of IHL violations by the group “with respect to the specific operation in the course of which [IHL] breaches may have been committed.”  Tadic at 40.  In other words, under Nicaragua, the unit’s action could be attributed to the State only if it was completely dependent on the State.

After committing mass IHL violations in Ukraine, it should be harder for Russia to escape attribution

Things changed after Putin’s army executed and tortured Ukrainian civilians en masse in the town of Bucha, leading to the investigations of Russian war crimes.  Further, evidence of Wagner’s atrocities in Ukraine is becoming available – in May of 2022, the Ukrainian state charged Wagner fighters with the brutal murder of a Ukrainian village mayor and her family. The group committed the crime alongside Russian soldiers.

The Tadic attribution test should be used to hold Russia responsible for Wagner’s gross IHL violations.

If an international tribunal for prosecution of Russian war crimes in Ukraine is established to adjudicate, among other things, whether gross IHL violations committed by Wagner should be attributed to Russia, there are several reasons why Tadic should be applied to determine whether Russia should be held responsible. 

Russia is not entitled to escape responsibility for the HL violations committed by its mercenaries.

a) Tadic explains that “states are not allowed on the one hand to act de facto through individuals and on the other to dissociate themselves from such conduct when these individuals breach international law.”  at 48.

Attributing Wagner’s IHL violations is particularly important for this war of aggression.  To avoid application of the Geneva Conventions (GC), Russia refuses to acknowledge that this war is an international armed conflict. The state claims it never invaded Ukraine, but is conducting a “special operation.”   Russia has also made calling the war an invasion a domestic offense punishable by up to 15 years in prison.

The international community should not reward Russia by accepting this blatantly false characterization.  As Prof. Alexander Proelss of the University of Hamburg Faculty of Law explained at the May 2022 Cushing International Law conference (which this author was privileged to attend), “the aggressor is not entitled to ‘downgrade conflict’ and thus escape the requirements of the international humanitarian law.”  

b.) Under Tadic, it is easier to establish state control over an actor when the state attempts to occupy another state.

Tadic holds that a state is in overall control of an organized paramilitary group if it finances and militarily assists such a group and coordinates or helps in the general planning of the group’s military activity. Id. at 56. For the state to be held responsible, it is not necessary for it to issue specific instructions to commit IHL violations.  Id. at 56, 59.  

Where the state controlling the paramilitary group is a geographically adjacent state with territorial ambitions in the area where the conflict is taking place, and it is attempting to achieve its territorial enlargement through armed forces which it formally controls, it may be easier to meet the threshold for establishing control over a paramilitary group.  Id. at 59-60. 

c) The relationship between the Wagner group and the Russian state meets the overall control test.  Under Tadicthe degree of state control needed to attribute a group’s gross IHL violations to a state may vary depending on the factual circumstances of each case. Id. at 47-48. Tadic drew a distinction between an individual (or an unorganized group of individuals) and a paramilitary group. 

The threshold for establishing control over individuals is higher, because it would be necessary to show that the state issued specific instructions to each individual. Id. at 48-49.  Paramilitary groups during war, on the other hand, have a structure, a chain of command, a corresponding set of rules, and outward symbols of authority. 

The individuals in these groups normally do not act on their own but are subject to the authority of the group’s commander.  Id. at 49To hold a state responsible for IHL violations committed by a paramilitary group, it is sufficient to show that the group was under overall control of the state.  Id.  The Tadic distinction is correctly drawn.  When a paramilitary group is equipped, financed and organized by the state, it is reasonable to assume the group’s commanders are controlled by that state.

Its commanders ensure its fighters act per their directions, which they receive from the controlling state.  Consequently, when overall state control is shown, the state is responsible regardless of whether the state directed the specific IHL violations and even in situations when the group performs contrary to the state’s instructions.  Id. at 49-50.

d) Finally, unlike NicaraguaTadic is grounded in international precedent.  Tadic explained that the test proposed by Nicaragua is at variance with the international judicial and State precedent that held States responsible in the circumstances where a lower degree of control that that demanded by the Nicaragua test was exercised.  at 51. 

In support of this argument, Tadic cited multiple decisions which held countries responsible for the actions of paramilitary groups on the basis of overall control, without inquiring whether the countries specifically directed the groups to commit IHL violations. Id. at 51- 56.

To hold Russia accountable for Wagner’s gross IHL violations, a Tadic-based framework should be used.

The prosecution should establish that: a) Wagner is a currently existing Russia-authorized mercenary paramilitary group; b) the mercenaries committing gross IHL violations belong to Wagner; c) Russia financed, supplied, and provided training and/or medical treatment for Wagner; and d) Russia has overall control of Wagner – i.e. that Wagner is operating with Russian military forces with the Russian goal of occupying Ukraine and defeating Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF)). 

a) Wagner is a mercenary group authorized by RussiaContrary to Russia’s boldfaced denials, Wagner exists.  In 2021, the European Union imposed sanctions against some of its commanders. In Syria, its mercenaries attacked US-supported Syrian positions at Deir Ezzor in February of 2018. It fought as a de facto Russian army’s auxiliary unit during the Russia-sponsored war in eastern Ukraine in 2014-2015, Syria, Libya, and other African countries. The best proof  that Wagner’s existence is fully authorized by Russia is, that under Russian law, the group is a criminal organization.  

The Russian Constitution’s Art. 13 prohibits “existence and activities of … public organizations whose goals are …creation of paramilitary units….”  So, Russian law makes recruiting, training and financing mercenaries and serving as a mercenary in combat a felony.  Thus, if the Russian state followed its own law, Wagner would have been banned as a criminal organization with its members serving long felony prison terms. 

Quite the opposite is happening in Russia – Wagner is openly recruiting and training in Russia (see subsection c, below) and is fighting in Ukraine and elsewhere.  Considering the extreme centralization of decision-making in Russia in the hands of its strongman, the only reasonable explanation for Wagner’s thriving in Russia is that the group was created and authorized by the Russian state and Putin personally.

b) Wagner mercenaries are committing gross IHL breaches.  Its members are mercenaries as defined by the GC AP Art. 47(2).  They are recruited to and take part in the armed conflict. They are motivated to do so by the desire for private gain (they were paid around $5000 a month in Libya), are not parties to a conflict, are not members of the Russian armed forces, and have not been sent by a State that is a non-party to the conflict on official duty as members of its armed forces. 

To establish that the mercenaries committing gross IHL breaches in Ukraine belong to Wagner, the prosecution would need to present evidence of the Wagner-identifiable items found on the fighters, their confessions, and the information they post on social networks. 

Combat military medals awarded by Russia (a 2021 investigation showed its commanders were awarded Russia’s most prestigious military awards reserved for military/law enforcement),  paraphernalia such as distinctive dog tags (according to the official UAF’s intelligence directorate channela Wagner dog tag was taken off the body of a mercenary in March of 2022), and identifiable Wagner patches could offer compelling identification of Wagner individuals.

c) Russia finances, trains, and provides army-grade weaponry and medical treatment to Wagner.  To hide Wagner’s connection to the government, candidates apply for civilian jobs through shell companies and are not recruited directly.  However, Wagner members are openly training at the site next to the airborne unit’s base.  Its fighters were also evacuated and treated in Russian military hospitals after fighting in Syria.

It would be difficult to track down Russian state financing of Wagner, as it is financed through a string of shell companies connected to Mr. Prigozhin, a member of Putin’s inner circle.  Information obtained from Wagner’s records, confessions of Wagner’s fighters, and investigation of Prigozhin’s group of companies would likely help prosecutors trace Wagner’s direct financing to Russia.

The prosecution would also need to produce evidence of Wagner’s active participation in combat and use of Russian army-grade modern military equipment/weaponry to set it apart from the military and security contactors Russia claims they are. 

The internationally recognized 2008 Montreux document explains legitimate contractors can provide “armed guarding and protection of persons and objects…; maintenance and operation of weapons systems; prisoner detention; and advice to or training of local forces and security personnel.” 

The Russian-army grade heavy weaponry Wagner is using in combat is by definition not used by contractors.  The documented combat use of such equipment by Wagner operatives indicates it is a de facto Russian military unit. Wagner’s attack at Deir Ezzor using heavy weaponry indicates it is equipped with the weapons available solely to the Russian army. 

The BBC exposé on Wagner’s activities shows it commonly requests and uses such heavy weaponry.  The information BBC obtained indicated Wagner planted several types of Russian-made anti-personnel minesand its supply order included advanced weaponry such as assault rifles, night vision goggles, compact radar systems, T-72 tanks, and 120-mm mortars. 

d) Russia’s occupation of Ukraine’s territory shows it is in overall control of Wagner. The Ukrainian war made proving the second Tadic prong easier.  The Russian army’s occupation in southeastern Ukraine shows that Putin’s goal is annexation of the Donbass region of Ukraine and connecting Crimea to Russia via Donbass. 

To prove that Russia has “overall control”, prosecutors would need to demonstrate that Wagner participated in combat operations along with the Russian forces pursuing joint goals of defeating the UAF and occupying Ukraine’s territory. This would be prima facie evidence that the group and Russia have shared military objectives in Ukraine, and consequently that Russia has overall control of Wagner.

Conclusion

With the mounting evidence of Russia’s atrocities, the need for an international tribunal for prosecution of Russian war crimes became more urgent. Use of Tadic’s “overall control” test by such a tribunal would allow the international community to hold Putin’s regime responsible so it can no longer hide behind the back of its thugs-for-hire.

About the author 

LTC Alex Kostin, USAR, is a reserve judge advocate currently serving in the National Security Law Division, Office of the Judge Advocate General, U.S. Army, as a National Security Law attorney.  On his 5th active duty tour, he previously served an Integrated Disability Evaluation System (IDES) counsel, trial counsel, and as a legal assistance/administrative law attorney, both in the U.S. and overseas.  In the reserves, he served as a CJA for the IO Brigade and the Division, and in other capacities.  As a civilian, he works as a post-conviction attorney representing Washington Department of Corrections in federal and state courts.  He is bilingual (Russian is his native language) and that allowed him to use Russian sources for this post.

Disclaimers:

*The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the U.S. Army, or any part of the US Government.

The views expressed by guest authors do not necessarily reflect my views or those of the Center on Law, Ethics and National Security, or Duke University.  See also here.

Remember what we like to say on Lawfire®: gather the facts, examine the law, evaluate the arguments – and then decide for yourself!