Don't want Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine? Send your kids - Wagner
By AARON REICH -

A service member of pro-Russian troops stands inside a residential building in Volnovakha

© (photo credit: REUTERS)

Russia is recruiting prisoners who volunteer to fight in its ongoing war in Ukraine through the Wagner mercenary company, and those who don't want prisoners to fight should send their children to fight instead, Russian oligarch and Wagner co-owner Yevgeny Prigozhin said in a statement Thursday.

The statement, uploaded to the Russian social media platform VKontakte by Prigozhin's company Concord, was made in response to a question from a journalist from the Russian news outlet Komsomolskaya Pravda, which is not to be confused with the similarly named Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda.

The journalist inquired about reports that prisoners are being recruited to fight.

"Of course, if I were a prisoner, I would dream of joining... in order to not only redeem my debt to the Motherland, but also to repay it with interest," said Pirogzhin, a close confidant of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Regarding those who don't want prisoners to be recruited to fight in Ukraine, Pirogzhin said: "Send your children to the front. Either private military contractors and prisoners, or [send] your children - decide for yourself."

"Send your children to the front. Either private military contractors and prisoners, or [send] your children - decide for yourself." Russian oligarch, Putin confidant and Wagner co-owner Yevgeny Prigozhin


Russia recruiting prisoners to fight in Ukraine

There have already been numerous allegations by Ukraine and other international intelligence reports that Russia is working to recruit prisoners through mercenary groups like Wagner to shore up its heavy losses in the ongoing war , which Russia refers to as a "special military operation."

According to Ukrainian intelligence reports, after signing and fulfilling the contracts with the private military company convicts are promised full amnesty after six months of service. They further claimed that the crime committed by convicts is irrelevant, even if it is murder or other serious crimes.

Wagner has reportedly been taking part in this, as they have also suffered significant losses during the war. Also, despite Prigozhin's claims, UK intelligence claims that Russia's military has lowered its standards for recruits and the training is rushed.

According to reports by the Latvia-based Russian independent investigative news outlet The Insider, Prigozhin personally goes to prisons to recruit prisoners, with Putin having supposedly personally authorized it.

"The prisoners want to leave... get out, go anywhere. Because any place on Earth is better than a Russian prison." Olga Romanova

Why are Russian prisoners going to fight in Ukraine?

The Insider also claims that there is a preference for recruiting prisoners convicted of murder. According to the Russian human rights NGO Russia Behind Bars, so far, up to 10,000 prisoners have already been recruited, including murderers, rapists and one "cannibal maniac."

According to Russia Behind Bars head Olga Romanova in an interview with Lithuania-based Russian dissident news YouTube channel Popular Politics, Prigozhin has also said Wagner is just looking for cannon fodder who charge forward, and any convict that tries to desert will be shot.

This was further detailed in a video showing someone believed to be Pirogzhin telling prisoners about the terms of their recruitment.

"No one retreats, no one surrenders," the person resembling Pirogzhin says, according to The Insider, adding that execution follows.

The video in question was also mentioned by the Pravda journalist to Pirogzhin, who referred to the person as "someone similar to Pirogzhin."

However, Romanova stressed that it seems most prisoners aren't being forced to join the war but are instead willingly volunteering, and not even for the money.

"The prisoners want to leave... get out, go anywhere," she explained to Popular Politics. "Because any place on Earth is better than a Russian prison."

Roman Meitav contributed to this report.

Russian inmates ‘told they’ll be freed if they survive six-months on Ukraine frontline’

Miriam Burrell - Yesterday - 

The founder of Russia’s pro-Kremlin Wagner mercenary group has attempted to recruit prisoners to fight Putin’s war in Ukraine, in leaked video footage.


Wagner-chief-Russia.PNG© Leaked video shared on Twitter

Yevgeniy Prigozhin can be seen addressing a large group of detainees in footage shared on Twitter.

English subtitles appear to show Mr Prigozhin telling the inmates, who stood in a circle around him, that he represents a private military company.

Mr Prigozhin told prisoners their sentences would be thrown out in exchange for service with his group for six months.

“While you’re with us for a half a year, you’re always in the combat zone,” he told the group.

“No one falls back. No one retreats. No one surrenders into capture,” the subtitles said.

“During training you’ll be told about two grenades you must have with you when surrending,” he said.

The minimum age the Wagner group is recruiting is 22 years old, he said, and the maximum age is 50, depending on prisoners’ physicality.

Mr Prigozhin also warned the prisoners against drugs, alcohol and sex with “local women, flora, fauna, men....anyone” on the frontlines.

Anyone interested would have to undergo a phsyical test and possibly a lie detector test, he warned.

Speaking in what appeared to be a prison exercise yard, the mercenary boss also alluded to the difficulties Russia has faced in invasion, saying “this is a hard war, not even close to the likes of Chechnya and the others”.

It is unclear who filmed the video, when it occurred or how it was released.

Britain’s Ministry of Defence said in July that Russia had likely tasked mercenaries to hold sections of the frontline in Ukraine due to a “major shortage” of combat infantry.

Greater reliance on paid fighters from the Russian private military company Wagner Group for frontline duties rather than their usual work in special operations was seen as a further sign that Russia’s military is under stress six months into the war.

“This is a significant change from the previous employment of the group since 2015, when it typically undertook missions distinct from overt, large-scale regular Russian military activity,” the Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence update on July 30.

“Wagner’s role has probably changed because the Russian MoD has a major shortage of combat infantry however Wagner forces are highly unlikely to be sufficient to make a significant difference in the trajectory of the war.”

Meanwhile in August it was reported that Ukrainian missiles are reported to have hit a base belonging to pro-Russian Wagner Group mercenaries in the east of the country.

One Ukrainian politician said long-range HIMARS rockets were used in the attack on the city of Popasna.

Wagner group head filmed recruiting Russian convicts
Yesterday 

The founder of Russia's shadowy Wagner mercenary group has appeared in leaked footage attempting to recruit prisoners to fight in Ukraine.

In filmed footage, verified by the BBC, Yevgeniy Prigozhin can be seen addressing a large group of detainees.

Mr Prigozhin told prisoners their sentences would be commuted in exchange for service with his group.

The video would confirm long-running speculation that Russia hopes to boost its forces by recruiting convicts.

While Russian law does not allow commutation of prison sentences in exchange for mercenary service, Mr Prigozhin insisted that "nobody goes back behind bars" if they serve with his group.

"If you serve six months (in Wagner), you are free," he said. But he warned potential recruits against desertion and said "if you arrive in Ukraine and decide it's not for you, we will execute you".

He also informed prisoners of Wagner's rules banning alcohol, drugs and "sexual contacts with local women, flora, fauna, men - anything".

Speaking in what appeared to be the penal colony's exercise yard, the mercenary chief also alluded to the difficulties Russia has faced in the protracted conflict, telling potential recruits that "this is a hard war, not even close to the likes of Chechnya and the others".

It is unclear who filmed the video, when it occurred or how it was released.

But the BBC has geolocated the footage to a penal colony in Russia's central Mariy El Republic. Analysts did this by conducting a reverse image search a church visible in the background of the video, which matched to penal colony number six.

A screengrab on the recruiter's face was also run through facial recognition software tools, returning a positive match with an actual photo of Mr Prigozhin.
What is the Wagner Group?

Separately, sources confirmed to the BBC's Russian service that the person in the video was likely Mr Prigozhin.

"This is his voice. His intonation. His words and manner of speaking... I'm 95 percent sure that this is him and this is not a montage," one source told the BBC.

"Very similar, his manner, and his voice is very similar," another said.

The 61-year-old's own company, Concord, refused to deny that he appeared in the footage, noting the "monstrous" similarity when approached by Russian state media.



A November 2011 photo shows Yevgeny Prigozhin (L) assisting Vladimir Putin at a banquet near Moscow© Reuters

Mr Prigozhin - who is a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin - has previously denied links to the Wagner group, whose forces have been deployed in Ukraine, Syria and several African conflicts.

But in the video, the oligarch can be seen telling inmates that he is a "representative of a private war company".

"Perhaps you heard the name - Wagner Group," he asks the group of prisoners.

He said recruits must be in "good physical shape", before revealing that the first 40 recruits from a penal colony in St Petersburg were deployed during an attack on Vuhlehirska Power Station in eastern Ukraine last June.

He said the prisoners had stormed the Ukrainian trenches and attacked Kyiv's troops with knives. Three of the men - including a 52-year-old who spent more than 30 years in detention - were killed, Mr Prigozhin said.

Later in the video, he warned the convicts, who are all sporting black jump suits, that they will be expected to kill themselves with hand grenades if they are at risk of being captured.

The Wagner group's origins are shadowy, but it is believed to have been formed by an ex-Russian army officer, Dmitri Utkin.

The BBC has previously identified links between the group and Mr Prigozhin, known as "Putin's chef" - so-called because he rose from being a restaurateur and caterer for the Kremlin.

The collective is believed to have been deployed to Ukraine since 2014, and since Russia's invasion in February Ukrainian forces have carried out strikes on what they say were Wagner bases in occupied eastern Ukraine.

In August, US defence officials said up to 80,000 Russian troops have been killed or injured since the war began in February, and Moscow has reportedly turned to Wagner to fill the gap left by the heavy casualties.

Last month, independent Russian media spoke to inmates held in facilities in different locations in Russia who told them that Mr Prigozhin had personally visited their facility to recruit inmates to join the fight in Ukraine.

Short of soldiers to send to war, Russia’s mercenaries recruit in prisons

Mary Ilyushina - Yesterday -  
The Washington Post

© Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

To address Russia’s shortage of soldiers to send to war in Ukraine, the Wagner mercenary group seems to be making an offer that it hopes convicted criminals can’t refuse: a get out of jail card.

“After six months [at war] you receive a pardon, and there is no option for you to return to prison,” a man dressed in tan-colored fatigues said, addressing a crowd of Russian inmates standing underneath a poster that read “Choose life.” “Those who arrive [at the front line] and say on Day 1 it’s not for them get shot,” the man added.

The recording pitch, captured on video, surfaced Monday night on Russian Telegram channels, and the man in fatigues making the offer appears to be Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the billionaire nicknamed “Putin’s chef” who is also the reputed financier of the Wagner private military company.

With Russian President Vladimir Putin refusing to declare a national draft, fearing such a move would be politically toxic, Wagner has been playing an increasingly crucial and public role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

It is not clear when the video was filmed, but it appears to provide the first on-record evidence of a recruitment strategy that has been rumor for months: soliciting prisoners to trade prison garb for military uniforms as a way of replenishing Russia’s ranks on the battlefield.

Russia’s shortage of reinforcements was apparently part of the reason Moscow’s troops were unprepared for a Ukrainian counteroffensive in recent days that ousted Russian occupying fosters from most of the northeast Kharkiv region. The successful Ukrainian counteroffensive has only added to Russia’s woes, with some analysts saying Russia is no longer capable of offensive operations, but can only defend the territory it now controls.

Prigozhin, whose chef nickname comes from the lucrative catering contracts awarded to him by the Kremlin, is known as an active supporter of Putin’s political goals, and he is wanted by the F.B.I. for allegedly interfering in U.S. elections. For years, though, he has denied links to Wagner, despite mounting evidence that he is profiting from the deployment of mercenaries to the Middle East and Africa to surreptitiously promote Moscow’s agenda.

But in the video, he starts his pitch by saying openly that he represents Wagner and is looking for recruits as the war in Ukraine “is tough and doesn’t even compare to the Chechen wars or any others.”What is the Wagner Group, the Russian mercenary entity in Ukraine?

Prigozhin’s catering company, Concord, coyly said in a Thursday statement that it “can confirm that the person in the video bears an enormous resemblance to Yevgeny Viktorovich [Prigozhin].”

“Judging by his rhetoric, he somehow deals with implementing the tasks of the special operation, and does so successfully … in addition, the person speaking in the video has a great delivery, just like Evgeny Viktorovich [Prigozhin] does,” the company said in its statement.

Another equivocate statement posted by Concord’s press service came from Prigozhin himself: “If I were a prisoner, I would dream of joining this friendly team in order to not only redeem my debt to the Motherland, but also to repay it with interest.”

“Those who do not want mercenaries or prisoners to fight … who do not like this topic, send your children to the front,” Prigozhin said. “It’s either them or your children, decide for yourself.”

Wagner has been leading a double effort to recruit men all over Russia in what the experts called “a shadow mobilization” as Putin has rebuffed calls for national mobilization from several hawkish Russian officials. Such a draft would almost certainly cause an uproar from the public that has been told for months that Moscow is running only a limited “special military operation” in Ukraine.

In addition to online ads and banners in dozens of cities inviting ordinary Russians to sign up, Wagner recruiters have been touring prisons seeking men between the ages of 22 and 50, but its recruiters say an exception is possible for older men if they are in a “good physical form.”Putin, tone deaf and isolated, pursues war ‘goals’ and refuses to lose

In the video, Prigozhin says the first batch of convicts fought in Ukraine on June 1 as Wagner was helping Russia take the Vuhlehirska power station in the Donetsk region. The mercenaries’ success in capturing the site was paraded on Russian state TV in the first public embrace of “the orchestra,” as the private army is often called, in reference to its namesake, right-wing German classical composer Richard Wagner.

“There were 40 people from St. Petersburg, [from a] high-security facility, recidivists,” Prigozhin said. “They entered the enemy trenches, cut them up with knives; there were three dead and seven wounded. Out of the three dead, one was 52 years old and had already served a 30-year-long sentence. He died a hero.”

Gulagu Net, a Russian human rights organization that helps convicts, first received calls and letters from inmates about Wagner’s recruitment efforts back in March. The head of Gulagu Net, Vladimir Osechkin, told The Washington Post in an interview last month that the effort was very limited at the time.

“Those were colonies for former law enforcement officers. … They were looking for those with combat experience, who took part in counterterrorism operations and various hostilities,” Osechkin said.

“We are talking special forces here, people who know what a weapon is,” he added. “They were told they would be commanders, that the motherland needs them, but as far as we understand, this campaign failed as they haven’t been able to recruit many of them.”

But as Russia’s campaign in Ukraine stalled since the initial gains in the spring, the effort to find fresh reinforcements took on new urgency.

“Starting in July, the number of calls we received grew exponentially, saying that Wagner has launched a mass recruitment campaign in regular colonies,” Osechkin said.How the fighting in Ukraine could lead to a war crimes case against Iran

The enlistment approach was two-pronged: Some convicts were offered support roles, such as digging trenches and doing various construction work near separatist-controlled areas in the eastern Donbas region. Others were recruited for units of 12 people tasked with “special combat missions,” even though they often had little military training.

“It all points to the fact that the Russian army has a personnel shortage, and they are trying to replenish it using prisoners whom they don’t care about,” Osechkin said.

Another civil rights organization, Russia Behind Bars, which has long investigated horrific conditions in Russian prisons, estimated that approximately 7,000 to 10,000 convicts have already been sent to fight in Ukraine.

Both organizations have voiced concern that prisoners are being tricked into joining a potential suicide mission with no legal guarantees, as well as concern about releasing potentially violent convicted criminals serving decades-long sentences for murder or aggravated assault.

“In addition to it being immoral and very dangerous, it also means that the concept of ‘crime’ no longer exists in Russia; they wiped their feet on the judicial system,” the head of Russia Behind Bars, Olga Romanova, wrote in a Facebook post.

According to Gulagu Net, Putin awarded at least one Russian convict who fought in Ukraine with a medal of bravery: Ivan Neparatov, a member of an organized crime group who served 12 years out of his 25-year sentence for murder, robbery and kidnapping.

On the video, Prigozhin told the inmates of the penal colony, which The Post identified to be in the small Mari El republic in central Russia, that he was looking for the most brazen “stormtroopers,” willing to be thrown into hot spots as infantry.

“You have five minutes to make a decision,” he said. “Regarding trust and guarantees, do you have anyone who can get you out of prison alive? Allah and God can get you out [dead]. I am taking you out of here alive. But it’s not always that I bring you back alive.”

Xi article gives insight into China’s direction ahead of party congress

The Chinese Communist Party is now the standard-bearer of the global socialism movement and must learn how to constantly self-correct itself to avoid the fate of the Soviet Union, Xi Jinping said in a recent article.

William Zheng - Yesterday - South China Morning Post

Qiushi – the party’s most authoritative theoretical journal – published the article on Wednesday, just a month ahead of the 20th Party Congress on October 16, which will confirm an unprecedented third term for Xi as its paramount leader.

The article is based on an internal speech given to party cadres in 2018, in which Xi reviewed past successes but also delivered stern warnings to the members, asking them to keep up the “revolutionary spirit” and be ever-ready for self-reflection and self-correction.

Short of that, “even the most powerful regime” would crumble and collapse, Xi said. He noted that the sudden collapse in the 1990s of the Soviet Union and the communist bloc had led to a period of unprecedented difficulty for the global socialism movement.

Many developing countries abandoned the socialist path to copy the Western model, he said
Xi said China, through its 40-year, non-stop effort of reform and rejuvenation, has achieved great success and remarkable progress.

“Today there are about 130 socialist or communist parties active in 100 countries. Many developing countries look at China with envy and want to learn about our governance experience. Socialism with Chinese characteristics has become the standard-bearer of 21st-century socialist development.” Xi said.

“We have the responsibility, capability and confidence to make historic contributions to the progress of scientific socialism.”

He said the key to China’s success is its determination to charter its own course and not blindly follow others’ governance models. Although the party suffered many setbacks during the process, it eventually forged a unique development path through countless trials and tests.

Xi said such a “self-revolutionary” spirit must be maintained, and China must be confident and determined to follow its own path.

“Our destiny lies in the path we select. If we take the wrong path, we will not achieve our goals and may even break the great rejuvenation of Chinese civilisation,” he said.

“China’s success proves that socialism is not dead. It is thriving. Just imagine this: had socialism failed in China, had our communist party collapsed like the party in the Soviet Union, then global socialism would lapse into a long dark age. And communism, like Karl Marx once said, would be a haunting spectre lingering in limbo.”

He warned the party members not to take success for granted and said it would still take a long time for China to achieve its great rejuvenation.

“During this long period, how can we ensure that the communist party will not collapse and our political system will maintain its vigour? [It] is going to be a huge challenge and risk,” Xi said.

“The Soviet Union once was so powerful, now it is just a faint memory. If we don’t have a historical perspective and long-term planning, we will bring ruins up to ourselves.”

Apart from confirming Xi’s third term, the party will also amend its charter at the congress meeting. Most analysts believe the revision will see more of Xi’s governance philosophy and ideology incorporated into the party constitution.

This will further strengthen Xi’s position in the party – he is already the most powerful political leader since Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. It will also help to ensure his legacy will stay and guide the party.

Experts also believe the article was republished now to serve as a reminder to party members of the challenges they are facing and the consequences if they fail.

Xie Maosong, a senior fellow with the Taihe Institute and a senior researcher at the National Institute of Strategic Studies at Tsinghua University, said the next few years under Xi would be crucial, as China continues to face a difficult external environment, with the US leading a Western bloc to contain it “in almost every possible way”.

“The message to the party is that it needs to stay vigilant and alert, quickly learn from past mistakes and adapt, encapsulated in the party lingo as ‘self-revolution’, to prevail from the long marathon competing with the west,” Xie said.

“It is important for Xi to share his long historical perspective with all the party members ahead of the major party conference, and convince them that he will lead them to conquer all the adversities.”

Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore concurred.

“It is very clear that Xi firmly believes that China is the flag bearer of the world’s socialist movements to counter the west after the demise of the Soviet Union. The Qiushi article shows that his worldview has not changed since 2018 and likely will stay the same in the future.”

More from South China Morning Post:

Sweden’s election marks a new far-right surge in Europe

Ishaan Tharoor - Yesterday 

Party leader of the Sweden Democrats Jimmie Akesson gives a speech during an election watch party at the Elite Hotel Marina Tower in Nacka, near Stockholm, on Sept. 11. (Stefan Jerrevang/TT News Agency/AP)

Another taboo in Europe is about to be broken. In Sweden, voters delivered a narrow mandate after elections on Sunday to a loose coalition of right-wing parties, including one with a neo-fascist past. On Wednesday evening, Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, a center-left Social Democrat allied to other left and green parties, conceded defeat. Her party had won 30 percent of the vote — making it still the single largest faction in parliament — but their coalition secured three fewer seats than their rivals to the right.

The kingmakers in Sweden are the far-right Sweden Democrats (SD), a party founded in 1988 by ultranationalist extremists and neo-Nazis. Over the past decade, they have moved from the fringes of their country’s politics into the mainstream. This week, they secured some 20 percent of the Swedish vote, enough to make them the second-largest party in Sweden.

But they may not formally be in power. Such is the political stigma around them that they may remain technically outside a government led by the center-right Moderates and Liberals, yet crucially not in opposition. Coalition politics carry many complexities and wrangling over the new government may take weeks. Whatever the outcome, it seems the far-right SD believes it has a major seat at the table in a country long known for its progressive ethos and policies.

“Now we will get order in Sweden,” SD leader Jimmie Akesson wrote Wednesday on Facebook. “It is time to start rebuilding security, prosperity and cohesion. It’s time to put Sweden first.” Right-wing nationalists are marching into the future by rewriting the past

Akesson’s triumphalism has echoed across the continent. Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Rally Party, hailed the SD’s success as a sign of nationalist resurgence. “Everywhere in Europe, people aspire to take their destiny back into their own hands!” she tweeted.

Related video: Sweden conservatives to form new govt after narrow election win

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Le Pen, of course, knows her share of false dawns, having been repeatedly thwarted in elections no matter incremental gains in defeat. But far-right parties have in the past decade been the beneficiaries of the collapse of the so-called “cordon sanitaire” set up by more mainstream parties to block them from winning power, entering governing coalitions in Swedish neighbor Finland, Austria and Italy. And even when not in government, their agendas have made their way into governance — the center-left government in Denmark, for example, checked right-wing nativism by adopting the anti-immigration policies of their rivals.

Italian elections later this month are expected to deliver perhaps the most emphatic victory for a European far-right party: The Brothers of Italy, which draws its origins from Italy’s neofascist movement, is currently leading in the polls and its leader, the charismatic Giorgia Meloni, is poised to be become prime minister with the backing of a number of other right-wing parties.

Akesson doesn’t have the political alliances that Meloni does but shares an antipathy toward migration, Islam and the spectral “globalist” establishment that far-right campaigners across the West have harnessed in their bids for power. “They don’t include Islam in Swedishness,” said Andrej Kokkonen, a professor of politics at the University of Gothenburg, to my colleagues. “You don’t get to be a Swede and a Muslim at the same time.”

“They have few new solutions for today’s destructive economic and environmental crises,” wrote Pankaj Mishra for Bloomberg Opinion about the far right. “They can, however, channel social unrest to their advantage by reheating identities of race, religion and ethnicity, and retailing myths of national greatness.” A far-right politician is poised to become Italy’s first female leader

Ahead of the election, Andersson pointed to the toxicity of the SD’s legacy. “ There are rightwing populist parties in many European countries, but the Sweden Democrats have deep roots in the Swedish neo-Nazis and other racist organizations in Sweden,” she said last week on the campaign trail in an interview with the Guardian, highlighting an alleged incident where SD campaigners celebrated the Nazi invasion of Poland during World War II. “I mean, it’s not like other parties.”

But that has hardly dented their appeal. The SD emerged as a major political force in Sweden, siphoning off rural votes that once would have gone to parties on the other side of the political spectrum. “Treating nationalists as pariahs has not prevented their rise,” observed the Economist. “On the contrary: elections in Europe now are often a case of loudly pitting the mainstream against the supposedly unpalatable and hoping that not too many voters pick the ‘wrong’ side. Simply hoping the nasties go away has not, in fact, made them go away.”

For more mainstream parties on the right, finding accommodation with the far right has become, in some instances, the only path to power. “If you want a government that is not based on the Social Democrats you need to cooperate with the SD,” said Anders Borg, a former finance minister for the Moderates, to my colleagues. “I cannot see any other viable election strategy.”

“In Sweden,” he added, “we isolated the SD and yet they grew to 20 percent as a lot of ordinary voters drifted toward them. At the same time, the SD has moved away from a fringe position toward being a more ordinary political party.”

That is the narrative surrounding other ascendant far-right parties in Europe, including Meloni’s Brothers of Italy. Meloni angrily rejects accusations of fascism and has cast herself as part of the political mainstream — cooling her Euroskepticism, supporting sanctions against Russia and prioritizing, at least for now, economic relief for Italians over a hysterical culture war.

If the Italian right wins power, Meloni will have to translate all the years of populist rabble-rousing into effective governance. That’s no small matter given the thicket of problems facing her debt-ridden country. “I cannot say that, faced with such a responsibility, my hands aren’t shaking,” Meloni told my colleagues.

How a neo-Nazi movement became Sweden's kingmakers

Yesterday 

More than one in five Swedes voted for the radical anti-immigrant Sweden Democrats (SD) party in elections on Sunday.


Sweden Democrats leader Jimmie Akesson delivers a speech to supporters following Sunday's vote© Getty Images

Now the second-largest political party in the country, its anticipated 73 MPs are expected to play a crucial role in supporting a ruling right-wing coalition - if not a formal position in the government itself.

It would be the first time the nationalist party has come anywhere close to the levers of power in Stockholm.

A focus during the election campaign on issues around immigration and violent crime have put the SD's agenda at the heart of mainstream Swedish politics like never before.

It is a watershed moment for a party founded by Nazi sympathisers, shunned for decades by the mainstream - and now on the cusp of playing a kingmaking role in a country better known for its stable and predictable politics.

According to the latest election figures, the SD won 20.6% of votes cast on Sunday - making it the largest in a bloc of right-wing parties now with a collective majority in parliament.

"This is dramatic given that they only entered parliament in 2010," University of Gothenburg political scientist Johann Martinsson told the BBC.

"Sweden used to have an extremely stable and predictable political party system. Three elections later - and they are the second largest party," he says.

Martinsson describes the party as "primarily an anti-immigration, anti-multicultural, nationalist party" - but stops short of labelling them far-right.


Supporters of the Sweden Democrats celebrate the results of an exit poll following Sunday's vote© Getty Images

Founded in 1988, the SD struggled for two decades to win enough votes to elect any MPs at all. But ever since entering parliament in 2010, the party has increased its share of three successive elections.

As of Sunday it had displaced the Moderates as the country's most popular right-of-centre party.

Martinsson says the results are a "dividing line" in Swedish history.

Its success has led to a fierce debate over how much the party has changed ideologically during its transformation from political pariah to power-broker.

Current leader Jimmie Akesson, who took over in 2005, unveiled a "zero-tolerance" policy against racism and extremism ten years ago - and in 2015 he even suspended the party's entire youth wing over its links to the far-right.

The party has also undergone an extensive rebranding: replacing its burning flame logo with a more innocent-looking flower and scrapping its "Keep Sweden Swedish" slogan.



Eurosceptics and anti-immigration: Akesson leads Sweden's soaring far right



wing nationalists shaking up Europe

Swedish PM's fascism warning as vote nears

But those changes have not been enough to end the accusations that the party poses a threat to Sweden's minority groups.

They include Willie Silberstein, the chair of Sweden's Committee Against Anti-Semitism - who has himself become a target of anti-Semitic abuse in recent days after using his position to publicly criticise the SD in a television interview.

"The Committee has a problem with parties that were founded by Nazis. That is not an opinion - that is a piece of fact," he told the BBC. "If one party is so full of people that need to be excluded because they are Nazis - it says something about that party."

He points to a widely-reported study published last month by Swedish research group Acta Publica that claimed to have identified 289 politicians from the largest parties who had expressed views that could be deemed racist or even Nazi.

The vast majority of them - 214 - were members of SD.

"It scares me that they might have a big influence in Swedish politics," he says. "I think of not only the Jewish minority, but of immigrants in general."
Swedish PM resigns as right-wing parties win vote
Gang shootings cast shadow over Sweden’s election

Tweets and social media posts from party members - and sometimes even elected officials - continue to get the party in trouble.

In the height of the election campaign SD's legal spokesperson, the 26-year-old MP Tobias Andersson, tweeted a picture of a Stockholm underground train branded with the party's colours.

"Welcome to the repatriation express. Here's a one-way ticket. Next Stop Kabul," he wrote.

Some Swedish commentators criticised the post but party leader Akesson refused to apologise, arguing that it was intended to mock those who were offended by the party's posters according to news agency AP.

The party denies the accusations of racism.

"All that was before I was born," says Emil Eneblad, vice chair of the SD's youth movement Young Swedes.

"People accused us of bad stuff in the election, I don't think the fact that there were shady people in the party 30 years ago has affected our election standing," the 21-year-old campaigner told the BBC.

He claims the party had almost doubled its support among young people in Sunday's election - something he credits with focusing on three issues in particular: safety, employment, and immigration.

"Young people are looking for something else," he says.

Political scientist Johann Martinsson says that issues around immigration have been simmering for a long time, pointing out that Sweden has received among the highest number of asylum seekers per capita in the world over the last few years.

This, and a perceived increase in violent crime may explain the surge in support for the SD, a party which has not only campaigned on both issues for years, but has rose to prominence with its controversial claim that the two are inextricably linked.



How a neo-Nazi movement became Sweden's kingmakers© BBC

Doctored photo does not show 'Philippine lawmakers supporting mandatory military service'

AFP Philippines - Yesterday 


An image that appears to show three opposition politicians in the Philippines holding placards in support of mandatory military training has been shared hundreds of times in Facebook and YouTube posts that criticise them for making an apparent U-turn. The claim circulated online after Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte said she wanted to reinstate mandatory military service for Filipinos aged 18 years old. The image, however, has been doctored. The pictured lawmakers told AFP they continue to oppose calls to reinstate mandatory military training in the archipelago.

The image was posted on Facebook on August 17. It has been shared more than 190 times.

The post's Tagalog-language caption accuses opposition lawmakers France Castro, Arlene Brosas and Raoul Manuel of allegedly reversing their stance on proposals to revive ROTC -- the country's mandatory military training programme.

The trio appear to be holding cards that state: "YES TO MANDATORY ROTC!", "WOMEN, SUPPORT ROTC!" and "YOUTH, JOIN ROTC!!"

The post also claims the politicians are "tired of supporting the CPP-NPA-NDF" -- referencing allegations they are linked to communist rebels trying to overthrow the government.

The lawmakers' coalition in Congress previously denied this allegation.

The caption translates in part as: "Rep. France Castro, Rep. Arlene Brosas and Rep. Raoul Manuel urged the public to support ROTC after realising this could bring huge help to the country.

"Though they have criticised this before, they are now openly giving their support. They know this will be beneficial not only for the youth but for the whole country."



Doctored photo does not show 'Philippine lawmakers supporting mandatory military service'© Provided by AFP Fact CheckScreenshot of the false post taken on September 14, 2022

The Philippine government made ROTC optional in 2002 following the death of a student who exposed alleged corruption in his university's military training programme.

Since she was elected in May this year, Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte has spearheaded calls to reinstate mandatory military service.

At least four bills supporting the move have been filed to the Philippine Congress in July, as seen here, here, here and here.

But Castro, Brosas and Manuel have said they would oppose the measure.


The same image was shared in Facebook posts here, here and here; and on YouTube here alongside a similar claim.

Comments on the posts suggested some users believed the image is genuine.

"That's just for show so they can get sympathy and votes from the people," one wrote.

"Don't believe them, I think they are just pretending to support ROTC," another commented.

The image shared in the posts, however, has also been doctored.

The three lawmakers told AFP they have not changed their stance on mandatory training.

'Against mandatory training'

"The posts that state we are supporting mandatory ROTC are false. We oppose mandatory ROTC," Brosas from Gabriela Women's Party told AFP on September 14.

On the same day, Manuel from Kabataan Partylist said: "We at Kabataan Partylist are firmly against the mandatory ROTC or mandatory military training and we have never been supportive of such proposals."

Castro from ACT Teachers Party-List said her party "strongly" opposes the measure to reinstate ROTC. She told AFP on September 15: "Photos circulating online saying otherwise are false, altered and spreading disinformation."

Doctored photo

Reverse image and keyword searches found the original photo was published on the official Facebook page for the Gabriela Women's Party on August 1.

The caption states the lawmakers were calling for a probe on a clash between state and rebel forces that local media reported killed a young girl and a man with a mental disability in Batangas province, south of the capital Manila.

In the original photo, the lawmakers are shown holding placards seeking justice for the victims.

The original placards read: "DEFEND SOUTHERN TAGALOG!"; "JUSTICE FOR KYLLENE CASAO!" and "JUSTICE FOR MAXIMO DIGNO!"

Below are screenshot comparisons of the doctored photo in one of the false posts (left) and the original photo (right):


Doctored photo does not show 'Philippine lawmakers supporting mandatory military service'© Provided by AFP Fact Check

CHIP OFF THE OLD BLOCK
Philippines: 'Communist' book bans raise new censorship fears

Ana P. Santos, Deutsche Welle - Yesterday 

Free speech advocates are concerned the new government of Ferdinand Marcos will continue cracking down on independent media in an attempt to whitewash the history of his father's brutal dictatorship.

Independent authors and book publishers in the Philippines are coming under pressure for alleged ties to the country's Communist Party and for criticizing the government.

Authorities in the Philippines are cracking down on literature labelled' subversive'.

© Rouelle Umali/ Xinhua News Agency/picture alliance

In August, the Commission on the Filipino Language (KWF) issued a memorandum calling for the removal of books containing "subversive, anti-Marcos and anti-Duterte contents" from public libraries.

The statement refers to former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, and his successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., both of whom have pursued hardline policies towards the media.

The KWF statement alleged that is own chairman, Arthur Casanova, had approved the books without its consent, saying it publishes books focused on "linguistics, grammar and ethnography."

The board of commissioners called Casanova's actions "illegal" and an "attack on the government." It added Casanova should be held responsible for "wasting taxpayers' money and inciting rebellion."

Casanova responded, warning that labeling books "subversive" is a "dangerous accusation which may already be stepping on the boundaries of freedom of expression and academic freedom."

In another case, a recent video posted on a pro-Marcos YouTube channel by Lorraine Badoy, the former head of a task force to end "Communist insurgency," tagged more than a dozen books by Filipino authors as anti-government because they included references written by the Communist Party of the Philippines.

The channel, SMNI News, has over 1.2 million subscribers.

In response, concerned citizens have taken to Twitter under the #HandsOffOurLibraries hashtag and set up a website documenting a "book censorship spree" across different provinces.

Dexter Cayanes, one of the authors who was red-tagged, said it he is falling victim to "certain political interests.

Scale of crackdown 'alarming'

Last year, a Philippine government task force to "end local Communist armed conflict" cooperated with the military on the removal of books considered anti-government from libraries in state-run academic institutions.

Most of the books in question documented the Communist insurgency in the Philippines and peace negotiations with the Communist Party.

La Solidaridad is an iconic, independent bookstore in Manila, which is a popular hang-out for writers and literary enthusiasts. After the task force began its work, the store was vandalized with red paint, ostensibly marking it as part of the "Communist" movement in the Philippines.

Tonet Jose, who owns and manages La Solidaridad, told DW that while he is not a stranger to state repression of freedom of expression, the magnitude of the government crackdown is alarming.

"But I still see hope. After the news of the book ban came out, a lot of people came into the store looking to buy copies of the banned titles," Jose said.

Whitewashing history of Marcos dictatorship?

Earlier this year, the head of the national intelligence agency accused children's book publisher Adarna House of subtly "radicalizing" Filipino youth. Adarna House had bundled a collection of children's storybooks about the martial law era and the brutal dictatorship of the current president's father, Ferdinand Marcos, Sr.

The curated collection was in response to public demand for books that would educate the younger generation of Filipinos about the crime and corruption during the Philippines' two-decades long military rule.

On September 21, the Philippines marks the 50th anniversary of the declaration of martial law, an era which lasted from 1972 until 1981 and saw thousands of activists killed or jailed.

Several reports have shown that a massive and well-orchestrated disinformation campaign by the Marcoses was crucial in influencing public opinion and securing the presidency for the late dictator's son.

Recently, a pro-Marcos movie was produced portraying the Marcoses as victims of the 1986 peaceful People's Power Revolution that ousted them from power.

Documentary filmmaker Alyx Arumpac, told DW that filmmaking has the power to influence the opinion wide audiences, and both sides of an issue use the medium to get complex messages across.

"This type of storytelling can also be an effective tool at countering the myths that the Marcoses have built for themselves," Arumpac told DW.

"Documentary films hold memories and evidence. In that sense, a documentary film serves as a clear record of the past. And that record will stand for decades to come," she said.

Arumpac's film "ASWANG" documented the brutalities of the Duterte Administration's drug war.

It enjoyed a wide viewing and won accolades worldwide. Arumpac has not been red tagged but has been barraged by online threats of rape and death since the release of her movie.

A turning point for culture in the Philippines

Authors, academics and human rights activists warn an entire state machinery is being implemented to target dissent.

Cristina Palabay, secretary general of human rights group Karapatan, said in a recent statement that the state-sponsored crackdown on books is an attempt to "deny the public of much-needed literature and materials encouraging critical thinking and knowledge on Filipino history and language."

Faye Cura, founder of independent feminist book publishing collective Gantala Press, told DW that the intensity of the state's attacks is an indication of how much the government is threatened by the a cultural movement fighting against historical revisionism and disinformation.

"Even more so now, cultural workers must resist all forms of censorship and the silencing of people," said Cura.

Edited by: Wesley Rahn

Copyright 2022 DW.COM, Deutsche Welle. Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

KANADA

False posts claim queen convicted over missing Indigenous children

AFP Canada - Yesterday

Social media posts circulating after the death of Queen Elizabeth II claim she was found guilty of killing indigenous children in Western Canada in 1964. This is false; the late monarch's official schedule did not place her in British Columbia when the alleged crime took place, and the institution said to have convicted her has no legitimate judicial authority.

"Just a reminder that the queen was found guilty of the murder of 10 canadian Indigenous children she and prince Philip took on a 'picnic' to the woods once day while visiting and they were never seen again," says a September 8, 2022 tweet that attracted thousands of interactions.

Queen Elizabeth II died at Balmoral, her rural Scotland retreat, the same day at age 96. Her death inspired numerous false claims on social media.

False posts claim queen convicted over missing Indigenous children© Provided by AFP Fact Check Screenshot of a tweet taken September 13, 2022

Some Facebook posts specify that the conviction was issued in 2013 by the "International Common Law Court of Justice in Brussels" -- not to be confused with the International Criminal Court (ICC), an international tribunal based in the Netherlands.

"After nearly a year of litigation, Queen Elizabeth and her husband, Prince Phillip, were found guilty in the disappearance of ten native children from the Catholic-run Kamloops residential school in British Columbia," says text in a September 9 Facebook post. "Grieving parents haven't seen their children since they left for a picnic with the Royal couple on Oct. 10 1964."

However, the posts are inaccurate.

Court not recognized

The court cited in the posts has no power to hand down convictions, independent experts previously told AFP.

Related video: Death of Queen Elizabeth prompts discussions about Crown-Indigenous relations

Death of Queen Elizabeth prompts discussions about Crown-Indigenous relations

"The International Common Law Court of Justice is not a recognized international court, and has no authority in Canada," said Ian McLeod, a spokesman for the Department of Justice Canada.

The International Common Law Court of Justice has previously spread misinformation about Covid-19 vaccines and regulations. Its self-described "chief adviser," Kevin Annett, is a former pastor in the United Church who was removed from the ministry in 1997.

Visit to Kamloops

The claim that Queen Elizabeth II was responsible for the disappearance of 10 Indigenous children in Western Canada in 1964 is not new. Fact-checking organization Snopes traced it back to 2010.

The rumor recirculated after the unmarked graves of 215 children were found on the grounds of a former residential school in Kamloops, British Columbia in May 2021.

First Nations peoples have sought a royal apology over the crown's role in Canada's residential school program. The schools were set up more than a century ago to assimilate Indigenous peoples, who were physically and sexually abused by headmasters and teachers who stripped them of their culture and language.

During a May 2022 visit, then-Prince Charles did not offer a formal apology, but emphasized the importance of acknowledging Canada's past abuses of its Indigenous community and described reconciliation as "vital."

AFP found no evidence that the royals visited the Kamloops residential school in 1964, as claimed in the posts.

The Canadian Research and Mapping Association said the queen visited Kamloops during her 1959 tour. The Canadian government also recorded a visit to the city by Queen Elizabeth II in March 1983 -- after the residential school had closed.

The queen did visit Canada in 1964, but she remained in Eastern provinces.


False posts claim queen convicted over missing Indigenous children© Provided by AFP Fact CheckThis screenshot taken September 12, 2022 shows the Canadian government's record of royal tours

This claim has also been fact-checked by Full Fact in the UK.

AFP has fact-checked other false and misleading claims about the queen here, here and here.

COMMONWEALTH COUNTRIES AND INDIGENOUS RIGHTS

New Zealand republic debate complicated by Māori treaty

By NICK PERRY, Associated Press - 

WELLINGTON, New Zealand (AP) — The death of Queen Elizabeth II last week has reignited debate in New Zealand about whether it should continue recognizing Britain's monarch as its symbolic head of state or take the final step toward independence by becoming a republic.

People walk on the Waitangi Treaty Grounds where the Treaty of Waitangi was first signed between Maori and the British Crown on Feb. 6, 1840, in Waitangi, northern New Zealand on Oct. 5, 2020. The debate in New Zealand over becoming a republic has an unusual twist: Many Indigenous Maori support New Zealand sticking with the monarchy, unlike the Indigenous people in many other former British colonies. That's because Maori signed a treaty with the British Crown in 1840 that guarantees them certain rights, and some Maori fear a constitutional change could threaten those rights. 

(AP Photo/Mark Baker)

But there remains a significant complicating factor.

While Indigenous people in many of the 14 nations outside of Britain which recognize the monarchy want to ditch it because they see it as a symbol of colonial repression, views are more mixed among Indigenous New Zealanders. Some Māori leaders favor sticking with the monarchy, at least for now.


Visitors to the Waitangi Treaty Grounds where the Treaty of Waitangi was first signed between Maori and the British Crown on Feb. 6, 1840, inspect Te Whare Runanga, a traditional meeting house in Waitangi, northern New Zealand on Oct. 5, 2020. The debate in New Zealand over becoming a republic has an unusual twist: Many Indigenous Maori support New Zealand sticking with the monarchy, unlike the Indigenous people in many other former British colonies. That's because Maori signed a treaty with the British Crown in 1840 that guarantees them certain rights, and some Maori fear a constitutional change could threaten those rights. 

(AP Photo/Mark Baker)

That's because New Zealand's founding document, the 1840 Treaty of Waitangi, was signed between Māori chiefs and the British crown. The treaty guaranteed Māori sovereignty over their traditional lands and fisheries, and some Māori worry those pledges could be threatened by eliminating the monarchy from New Zealand.



A sign on the Waitangi Treaty Grounds where the Treaty of Waitangi was first signed between Maori and the British Crown on Feb. 6, 1840, detailing the history, is seen in Waitangi, northern New Zealand on Oct. 5, 2020. The debate in New Zealand over becoming a republic has an unusual twist: Many Indigenous Maori support New Zealand sticking with the monarchy, unlike the Indigenous people in many other former British colonies. That's because Maori signed a treaty with the British Crown in 1840 that guarantees them certain rights, and some Maori fear a constitutional change could threaten those rights. (AP Photo/Mark Baker)

For the past 33 years, New Zealand's government has been negotiating with Māori tribes and compensating them for historic treaty breaches with settlements of money and land. But the process remains incomplete, with some tribes yet to reach settlements.

Willie Jackson, the government's minister for Māori development, said the appropriate time for a discussion about becoming a republic would come after the period of mourning for Elizabeth.

“When we do have that conversation, I think the reality for a lot of Māori is the position of the treaty is paramount,” Jackson said. “There has been a lot of worry that the treaty will disappear. So, obviously, some people will be looking for some entrenchment with regards to that."

Peeni Henare, New Zealand's defense minister and another influential Māori voice in the government, said that from his perspective, there should be “no thoughts given to becoming a republic” until the treaty settlement process is completed.

Constitutional experts argue that the obligations of New Zealand's government to compensate Māori under the treaty wouldn't need to change if it became a republic, and a switch would be a fairly simple legal maneuver to pull off. That hasn't reassured all Māori.

Some, however, are advocating for New Zealand to become a republic immediately. The small Māori Party, which holds two seats in the Parliament, surprised some observers in February by advocating for a republic as part of broader changes that include setting up a separate Māori parliament.

“The only way this nation can work is when Māori assert their rights to self-management, self-determination, and self-governance over all our domains," said party co-leader Debbie Ngarewa-Packer at the time, adding: “This won’t mean the crown is off the hook. If a couple gets divorced, you don’t lose responsibility for your child."

Lewis Holden, the campaign chair of lobby group New Zealand Republic, said the treaty remains key to the republic debate in New Zealand. He said his group's position is the same as that of academics — that nothing changes about the treaty's constitutional powers if New Zealand becomes a republic.

When it comes to Indigenous rights, Lewis added, “There is a big question, I think, about that symbolism of staying connected to the monarchy."

He said that New Zealand likely lags behind Caribbean nations and Australia in the push to become a republic, but he hopes there might be a national referendum on the issue within the next five to 10 years.

“Very clearly there was a lot of support for the monarchy simply because of the good feeling that people had towards the queen,” Holden said.

He said the feeling of nostalgia people had for Elizabeth and her connection to historic events like World War II was now gone — or would be after a spike during the mourning period for Elizabeth — and that support in New Zealand for the monarchy would inevitably wane under the reign of King Charles III.

But over the years, New Zealand's political leaders have shown little enthusiasm for engaging in the republic debate, no doubt in part because of the thorny Indigenous issues it raises.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said her government doesn't plan to pursue the issue following the queen's death.

She said she thought New Zealand will eventually become a republic, and it would probably happen within her lifetime, but that there were more pressing issues for her government to address.

Opposition Leader Christopher Luxon said much the same.

“I don't see any need for constitutional change right now. I think that it might happen at some point, but that could even be decades away,” he said.





Start the conversation

TYRANT OF TUNISIA 

Tunisian president issues new electoral law reducing parties' influence

NEWS WIRES - Yesterday 

Tunisia's president issued an electoral law on Thursday reducing, but not ending, the role of political parties in a reformed parliament that will have fewer powers under a constitution passed in July.

© Fethi Belaid, AFP

Under the new law, voters will choose candidates in the Dec. 17 election individually rather than by selecting a single party list - a switch that will weaken the influence of parties.

The unilateral changes are the latest that President Kais Saied has made to Tunisia's political system since he seized most powers last summer in a move his foes called an anti-democratic coup to establish one-man rule.

"We are passing through a new stage in the history of Tunisia towards the sovereignty of the people after previous sham elections," said Saied during a cabinet meeting.

He said political parties were not being excluded and that accusations constituted "lies and fabrications."

The main parties across Tunisia's political spectrum have already rejected the law, saying they will boycott any elections under Saied's new constitution, which has greatly expanded his powers and removed most checks on his actions.



The constitution was passed overwhelmingly in a referendum in which official figures showed only 30% of voters took part - though opposition parties have accused the authorities of inflating even that low rate of participation.

The previous democratic constitution from 2014 enshrined a major role for parliament, giving it the main responsibility for forming governments, while the president had less direct power.

Saied's new constitution has instead brought the government directly under the president, while reducing the influence of a new two-chamber parliament.

The new lower chamber will only have 161 members, compared to the 217 previously. Details of the second chamber, including how its members will be elected, have not yet been issued.

The United States has repeatedly voiced concern at what it sees as democratic backsliding under Saied, a political independent who worked as a constitutional law lecturer before running for president in 2019.

He has rejected the criticism, calling it unacceptable interference in domestic Tunisian affairs, and has denied his actions constitute a coup or that he will become a dictator.

(REUTERS)

(Reporting by Tarek Amara; Writing by Angus McDowall; Editing by Josie Kao)

FASCIST MANICHAESIM 

Brazil's Bolsonaro taps wife to woo Evangelicals, women

Ramon SAHMKOW
Thu, September 15, 2022


Once a discreetly smiling presence at Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro's side, First Lady Michelle Bolsonaro is increasingly wooing Evangelical Christian and women voters to reelect the husband she calls "one of God's chosen ones."

Trailing in the polls to his leftist rival Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the far-right incumbent has turned to his telegenic, fervently Christian wife to help him with those two key demographic groups ahead of October 2 elections.

A mainly behind-the-scenes presence for most of Bolsonaro's term, the first lady is now playing a starring role in his campaign -- to the point of giving what he himself called the keynote speech when he launched his reelection bid a month ago.

"She's the most important person here," Bolsonaro, 67, gushed that day.

He then handed the mic over to his beaming 40-year-old wife, who warned ominously against returning "our enemies" to power and led the crowd in the Lord's prayer.

Bolsonaro has long struggled with women voters.

In his 2018 campaign, the former army captain was the target of a women-led movement called #EleNao -- "not him" -- launched by critics who accuse him of misogyny.

He has revived those accusations this time around with controversial campaign-trail behavior such as bragging about his supposed sexual prowess and lashing out at a woman journalist who asked him a tough question during the first presidential debate.

"You must have a crush on me or something," he told her sarcastically.

Enter the first lady.

"Her role is to make (Bolsonaro) more attractive to women voters," says Sergio Praca, a political analyst at the Getulio Vargas Foundation.

- Winning strategy? -

Both Bolsonaro and former president Lula are keenly courting women (53 percent of the electorate) and Evangelicals (an estimated 31 percent of Brazil's 213 million people).

Known for his aggressive style and use of profanities, Bolsonaro has sometimes rubbed both groups the wrong way.

Political analysts say women voters also resent his lack of policies to help them through the country's post-Covid-19 economic malaise, whose impact has fallen disproportionately on their shoulders.

Michelle, Bolsonaro's third wife, sends the message the president is a "conservative family man" and "trustworthy" candidate, says Carolina Botelho, a political communication specialist at Rio de Janeiro State University.

The elegant first lady's increasingly active role has turned heads -- including among the electoral authorities, who recently blocked a Bolsonaro campaign ad from television, ruling she had exceeded the time allotted to candidates' allies.

But it is unclear the strategy is paying off: Bolsonaro's poll numbers among women have remained essentially flat, with a double-digit lead for Lula.

Michelle "may have reinforced (Bolsonaro's) standing among women who were already with him, but she hasn't drawn in those who were against him," says Botelho.

"She speaks well to a fanatic, radicalized audience, but not to the rest of the population."

- Religion and politics -

The first lady appears to have greater pull with conservative Christians, given her history of volunteering on church-affiliated charity projects and her close ties with powerful Evangelical pastors and politicians.

"Her main strength is among the Evangelical electorate," says Adriano Laureno, a political analyst at consulting firm Prospectiva.

Her speaking style "closely resembles a pastor's," with constant references to God and a struggle between good and evil, he adds.

In this case, the strategy appears to be working: Bolsonaro holds a double-digit lead over Lula among Evangelicals.

Polls also show a majority of voters in Brazil believe religion should play a role in politics.

The first lady does just that in her public appearances, regularly repeating her husband's slogan: "Brazil above all, and God above everyone."

rsr/jhb/bgs