King Charles' coronation: $200m cost hard to swallow for struggling Britons

AS IT IS FOR THE REST OF US IN THE COMMONWEALTH

By Nick Dole in London for ABC


Souvenirs on sale in central London days out from the coronation. Photo: AFP

The Evelyn Estate is just half an hour's drive from the gold-trimmed gates of Buckingham Palace, but it feels like a world away.

While at the palace they are polishing the silver, tending the tulips and preparing the King's fine coronation robes, at the Evelyn community centre they're unpacking donated food that more than 100 families rely on.

Christina Norman, who was unpacking vegetables and canned food with a team of volunteers, said the world often saw London through a different lens.

"We've got palaces and landmarks … there's a lot of pomp going on," Norman said.

"But people can't afford to eat and heat. People are really struggling."

Over the winter, Britons suffered their biggest fall in living standards since records began, with stagnant wages failing to keep up with stubbornly high inflation of 10.1 percent.

Food is especially expensive, surging almost 20 percent in a year.

Every week, volunteers transform the south London community centre into a food store, allowing residents to fill their trolleys for a couple of gold coins.

They can't help everyone. More than 60 families are on the waiting list.

Norman said many people who used the community store have jobs, but their pay was not enough to keep up with the cost of living.

"We have nurses … who cannot afford their shopping," she said.

"It shouldn't be like that. There's a new class now, the working poor. It's really worrying."

Norman said next weekend's coronation celebrations might be a welcome distraction for people doing it tough.

"It doesn't matter whether the coronation happens or it doesn't. We'll still be in the same position," she said.

"My fault isn't with the royal family, it's with government."

However, 53-year-old Stewart Lendor, who relies on the food store to feed his family of four, said the estimated 100 million pound ($NZ203m) price tag on the coronation was hard to swallow.

"They're feeding the rich and the poor are getting poorer," he said. "It's all about them."

He said he has no interest in seeing King Charles III crowned.

"I don't give a bee because the royal family are doing nothing for us."

Some Britons remain unenthused about King Charles and Camilla. 

Photo: Yui Mok / Pool / AFP

Celebrations stripped back, but not too much

The St Edwards' crown that will be used during the ceremony. Photo: AFP

King Charles is said to have asked for a more restrained coronation to reflect the country's cost of living crisis.

Royal historian Kelly Swaby said the King was cautious about seeming out of touch.

"We're talking about carriages and tiaras and crowns while the UK is having a cost of living crisis, the worst since the Second World War.

"So I think he's very mindful of that," she said.

Even so, Swaby said the King has his reasons for continuing a number of the key traditions some may see as pompous.

"You can't strip it back too much because then people ask, why do we need it?"

The King and Queen Consort will still travel in a golden coach and the monarch will still be anointed with holy oil.

There will still be 2000 invited guests - far fewer than the 8500 invited to Queen Elizabeth II's coronation.

More than 6000 members of the military will participate in the event, which is seven times less than the number involved in the Queen's event in 1953.

In a break with tradition, there will not be a lavish banquet to celebrate the coronation.

However, there will be a spectacular military fly-past, with more than 60 aircraft flying over Buckingham Palace.

Dozens of aircraft will take part in the military fly-past over Buckingham Palace.

 File pic Photo: NIKLAS HALLE'N

And a celebratory concert will be held in Windsor on Sunday, featuring artists like Katy Perry and Lionel Richie.

For students Jess Prasad and Caner Necatigil, who are struggling to pay for food, the coronation celebrations are over the top.

"We're choosing between whether we buy vegetables or eggs and they're spending so much on the coronation. It just feels like a kick in the teeth," 19-year-old Prasad said.

Necatigil said it was "immoral" for the tradition to continue while so many people were struggling to afford life's essentials.
The national mood has changed

Swaby said the UK was a very different place in 1953 when the Queen held her coronation.

"Britain had come out of the Second World War. There were still parts of London that were in rubble."

She said the coronation of the young queen provided a much-needed boost to morale.

"People would go out and buy their first TV just to watch the coronation. TV licences doubled just for the coronation," she said.

Nowadays the public was less easily impressed, she said.

"There's been a steep decline in deference to the monarchy since the Queen's coronation.




"We're currently having debates about how much the coronation costs. Is it strictly needed?"

She said these were "valid questions in the context of what the UK is going through at the moment".

In a recent YouGov poll, commissioned by the UK Republic group, 35 percent of those surveyed said they did "not care very much" about the coronation.

And 29 percent said they did "not care at all".

However, London couple Susie and Henry Pelly said they were "very excited" by the event.

"It brings in massive amounts of tourism," Henry Pelly said.

His wife said it would bring people together. "The Brits are going to be right behind it."

Union flags fly above Bond Street in central London, on April 29, 2023 ahead of the coronation ceremony. Photo: AFP

As a historian, Swaby said she was looking forward to the event.

"We are the only European monarchy that still holds a coronation. It's not strictly necessary," she said.

"[But] it's a day where we continue a tradition. It's a day that really shows Britain off to the world and it shows the ceremonial excellence that we are so renowned for."
The Queen is a tough act to follow

King Charles is all too aware he doesn't enjoy the same level of public affection as his mother did.

In 2013, A YouGov poll found 75 percent of Britons wanted the monarchy to continue.

However, a pre-coronation YouGov poll commissioned by BBC Panorama found that number had fallen back to 58 percent.

Liz Berry, a 32-year-old Londoner, said she was not very interested in the royal family, especially without the Queen at the helm.

"People my age grew up [with] the Queen and being really familiar with her as a figure," she said.

"Whereas, Charles, we maybe don't respect in the same way."

The royal family's very public feud is unlikely to be helping its popularity.

Prince Harry will be attending the coronation, but Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, and their children will remain in California.

In his recent accusations of his brother, Prince William, physically attacking him, and his stepmother, Camilla, leaking to the press, the Duke of Sussex has painted a picture of a deeply dysfunctional family.

However, some royal watchers believe the King can successfully modernise the monarchy and win back public support.

Royal historian Robert Lacey said the King was already showing an openness that the Queen couldn't.

"Charles has also shown an ability to express emotion that his mother never had," he said.

"It was very interesting in his first broadcast and then in subsequent broadcasts."

"He is a monarch expressing feelings in a positive, rather inspiring way. It wasn't his mother's style, but it is the style of this prince who's become a king."

-ABC

Call for British public to swear allegiance to King Charles just an 'invitation', Lambeth Palace clarifies after mockery

30 April 2023

King Charles is pictured meeting members of the public outside Buckingham Palace the day after his mother's death last September. Picture: Alamy

By Adam Solomons

Plans for the public to swear allegiance to King Charles during the Coronation have been clarified as an 'invitation' not an 'expectation or request' after a barrage of criticism on social media

Lambeth Palace revealed on Saturday that a new Homage of the People will replace the traditional kissing of the cheek by hereditary peers.

After the Archbishop of Canterbury proclaims "God Save the King", those watching the ceremony at home, in pubs and in parks will be invited to reply: "God save King Charles. Long live King Charles. May the King live forever."

After the plans prompted mockery, Coronation organisers insisted the rally cry is “very much an invitation rather than an expectation or request”.

Read more: Late Queen's confidante given lifelong home by King Charles days after being 'turfed out' of Windsor

Read more: Warning that Brits celebrating King Charles's coronation could face fines with impromptu street parties

Members of the Welsh Guards prepare to swear allegiance to the King during Coronation rehearsals at RAF Odiham, Hampshire this weekend. Picture: Alamy

A Lambeth Palace spokesperson told The Telegraph: “For those who do want to take part, some will want to say all the words of the homage; some might just want to say 'God Save The King' at the end.

"Others might just want to say it to be a moment of private reflection.

"It’s quite right that people decide for themselves how they relate to this moment."

The clarification also comes a day after Lambeth Palace revealed that next weekend's Coronation will feature faith leaders from non-Christian religions for the first time.

Trafalgar Square is prepared for Coronation events next weekend, with signs placed on Saturday. Picture: Alamy

A Lambeth Palace spokesperson said: "Lambeth Palace and Buckingham Palace are pleased to confirm the names of the Faith Leaders and Representatives who will deliver a Greeting to His Majesty The King at the end of the Coronation Service at Westminster Abbey on 6th May."

They include Chief Rabbi Sir Ephraim Mirvis, KBE (Judaism), The Most Venerable Bogoda Seelawimala (Buddhism), The Rt. Hon. The Lord Singh of Wimbledon, CBE (Sikhism), Radha Mohan das (Hinduism) and Aliya Azam, MBE (Islam).

After the service is over, the King will receive a special greeting by the Jewish, Hindu, Sikh, Muslim and Buddhist leaders in attendance.

Lambeth Palace said this "unprecedented gesture" reflects Britain's "religious diversity".

China donates patrol boat to Sierra Leone to tackle illegal fishing and piracy off West Africa

Beijing’s ‘gift’ commissioned as communities in Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and Guinea concerned about Chinese fleets depleting fish stocks

Analysts say military donations are a diplomatic means for China to strengthen relations with African continent and protect its economic interests.


Jevans Nyabiage
 30 Apr, 2023

Sierra Leone President Julius Maada Bio commissioned the 26.7-metre patrol boat, Madam Yoko, on April 25. The vessel was a gift from the Chinese government to help Sierra Leone tackle illegal fishing and piracy. Photo: Handout

China’s donation of a navy patrol vessel is aimed at helping Sierra Leone and other West African countries in the Atlantic Ocean fight illegal fishing and piracy, says Sierra Leone President Julius Maada 

Bio commissioned the 26.7-metre (87-foot) long navy patrol boat that is equipped with a 14.5-mm calibre weapon.

He said the Offshore Naval Patrol Boat PB 106 – named the Madam Yoko – was a gift from China to the government of Sierra Leone “as a result of the strong bilateral relationship between the two countries”.

China-funded infrastructure across Africa force difficult decisions for its leaders

Bio said the gift from the Chinese government was significant because it strengthened the country’s offshore capacity and would help the country monitor its territorial waters. Sierra Leone is home to China’s multimillion-dollar mining (mostly iron ore) and timber interests.

“Sierra Leone has been struggling to control illegal, unreported and unregistered fishing on our territorial waters,” Bio said in a speech during the commissioning of the naval patrol vessel on Monday.

Beijing’s contribution to Sierra Leone’s efforts was recognised even though fishing communities along the Atlantic coastline of Sierra Leone, Liberia, Ghana, Nigeria, Senegal and Guinea have raised concerns that China’s distant-water fishing fleet has depleted fish stocks.

“This offshore capacity will obviously reduce the risk and deter those crimes in our maritime domain,” Bio said.

Chinese fishing plans ‘threaten environmental catastrophe’ in Sierra Leone
1 Jun 2021


Further, he said China had provided engineering equipment and overseas training and sent medical teams that had significantly enhanced the capacity of the Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces (RSLAF).

Francois Vrey, a research coordinator at the Security Institute for Governance and Leadership in Africa at Stellenbosch University, said Sierra Leone was subject to a dire illegal fishing threat in its waters and Chinese trawlers were among illegal fleets entering the country’s waters.

He said Chinese vessels – whether flagged or licenced – dominated foreign fishing licences in Sierra Leone.

“China’s distant fishing fleet is vast and the Gulf of Guinea is fertile ground,” Vrey said.

“China is making a play in the Gulf of Guinea given that it is also seeking a naval facility in the Gulf of Guinea, and these waters are also in the picture in the Belt and Road Initiative.

China has donated a patrol boat to Sierra Leone to help the West African nation tackle illegal fishing and piracy to protect its own fishers and seafood stocks. Photo: Visit Sierra Leonean

He said Sierra Leone was a signatory to the Yaoundé Code of Conduct (YCC) that sought to respond to maritime security threats in the Gulf of Guinea.

“This vessel helps in its zone of responsibility as its other vessels also have limited reach, and this one can probably operate further out to sea,” Vrey said of the Madam Yoko.

China’s ambassador to Sierra Leone Wang Qing said the patrol boat gifted to Sierra Leone showed the shared views of both countries towards their long-standing friendship and military-to-military cooperation.

“I want to appreciate our Chinese military team who, since the arrival of the vessel, has been in the country to share expertise with the Sierra Leone Navy on how to operate the vessel and the machine,” Wang said.

Observers said Chinese military donations – typically military equipment and training – were a diplomatic means employed by Beijing to strengthen relations with the continent and protect its economic interests.

China is the continent’s largest trading partner and has pumped billions of dollars in loans that have gone towards building mega projects such as ports, dams and highways under President Xi Jinping’s multibillion-dollar pet project, the Belt and Road Initiative.

US fears over Chinese military in Africa should focus on Atlantic: analysts
13 Feb 2023


Dr Ilaria Carrozza, a senior researcher at Peace Research Institute Oslo, said China’s donation of a navy patrol vessel to Sierra Leone was one of Beijing’s foreign policy tools to cultivate long-term relationships with African countries.

“Donating arms and military equipment is seen by the Chinese leadership as a cost-efficient way of building trust and promoting strategic cooperation between the People’s Liberation Army and the recipient’s armed forces,” Carrozza said.

She said military donations from China were typically associated with economic ties between Beijing and the recipient country and included the aim of protecting Chinese interests and citizens.

“In my research, I have found that China provides donations of arms and military equipment to nearly all African countries, which is coherent with its broader emphasis on South-South cooperation,” Carrozza said.

A study co-authored by Carrozza last year said China had provided military help to 47 African countries in the past two decades, with Zimbabwe and Angola the top recipients of military arms and training.

China’s total spending on security force assistance to African countries between 2015 and 2020 was around the US$25 million a year it pledged to the African Union in 2015, the study said


Koffi M. Kouakou, a senior research fellow at the University of Johannesburg’s Centre for Africa-China Studies, said Sierra Leone, a nation in the throes of electoral campaigns, needed security support.

He said that for decades pirates and drug traffickers used Sierra Leone to transit to Europe with devastating effects on its people, especially its youth.

“China is only responding to President Julius Maada Bio’s request to deal with challenges and protect the country’s battered coast, democracy and sovereignty,” Kouakou said.

“Chinese diplomacy delivers a smart bundle of development and security, or vice versa. This package is almost unbeatable and Western nations are struggling to compete with China on that front.”

Sierra Leone President Julius Maada Bio commissioned the Madam Yoko, a 26.7-metre (87-foot) long navy patrol boat equipped with a 14.5-mm calibre weapon. Photo: Handout


At the Madam Yoko commissioning, Bio said Sierra Leone was taking part in a regional initiative to keep the Gulf of Guinea secure. The gulf, which stretches from Angola to Senegal and is a key shipping route, is said to be one of the world’s most dangerous places for attacks on ships, with piracy still frequent in the region.


For instance, early this month, pirates took control of a Chinese-operated oil tanker in the Gulf of Guinea. China has in the past decade taken part in dozens of military exchanges with countries from the gulf and deployed naval vessels for counter-piracy operations.

Is China making a cautious return to African infrastructure funding?
8 Apr 2023


David Shinn, a specialist in China-Africa relations at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said China’s donation of patrol vessels – including some previously well used boats – to African countries was a common practice.

For example, Shinn said Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana and Mauritania had been given patrol craft by China.

“In 2006, China even donated a gunship to Sierra Leone, which is an interesting choice of countries because of complaints by local fishermen about Chinese fishing in its offshore waters,” Shinn said.

He said licensed and unlicensed Chinese fishing vessels had been depleting fish stocks off Sierra Leone.

In 2021, China and Sierra Leone announced a controversial US$55 million Chinese-financed industrial fishing harbour, Shinn said.

“Sierra Leone may well use the vessel to discourage illegal fishing,” he said.





Jevans Nyabiage
Kenyan journalist Jevans Nyabiage is South China Morning Post's first Africa correspondent. Based in Nairobi, Jevans keeps an eye on China-Africa relations and also Chinese investments, ranging from infrastructure to energy and metal, on the continent.

U.S. Treasury Department authorizes sending cars, tractors and agricultural equipment to Cuba

“The license includes used cars, new cars, trailers, tractors and all agricultural equipment. It is aimed at small and medium-sized enterprises so that they can import their cars for exploitation,” said Eduardo Aparicio, from Apacargo Express, the licensee.

by  OnCuba Staff
April 29, 2023
in Cuba-USA


According to several sources, the United States Department of the Treasury has granted licenses to send cars and other vehicles to Cuba on the condition that the recipients are self-employed, not government officials.

“This license, which is for ten million dollars, includes used cars, new cars, trailers, tractors and all agricultural equipment. It is now aimed at small and medium-sized enterprises, so that they can import their cars for exploitation,” Eduardo Aparicio, from Apacargo Express, the company that received the OFAC license, told journalist Mario Vallejo.

He explained that there is a high demand, but that the first step is to ask the importing company for a quote to find out what the final value of the operation will be. Cuban customs, he said, do not charge much tax; but it is expensive to pay the importing company, which is asking for around 30% of the invoice value of the vehicle.

For example, a car that costs an average of $20,000 in the United States can cost the self-employed approximately $6,000 more in taxes, and close to $10,000 in logistics and documentation.

The measure has been announced in a context of the fuel crisis. The Cuban government has said that it is due to breaches by suppliers.

Fentanyl, another U.S. war

The aggressive and dangerous Republican discourse insists on pointing to Mexico; Trump came to consider the number of drug overdose deaths a “military attack.”

by  Alfredo Prieto
April 26, 2023
in USA

Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid 50 times stronger than heroin and 100 times stronger than morphine. Photo: Aristegui Noticias.

A ghost as real as it is deadly is running through the United States: its name is fentanyl. A synthetic opioid 50 times stronger than heroin and 100 times stronger than morphine, whose use as a drug is deadly for humans. The Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) has not hesitated to describe it as “the deadliest drug threat our nation has ever suffered.”

The statistics are terrifying. In 2021, nearly 71,000 Americans died from fentanyl overdoses, far more than the 58,220 who died during the Vietnam War. This is a record for overdose deaths: an increase of almost 30% over the same period the previous year. And almost double in the last five years.

The overdose epidemic of the new poison is defined as a “national crisis” that, for the same reason, “knows no geographical borders and continues to worsen.” The government has seized enough fentanyl to give every American a lethal dose, the Office of National Drug Control Policy once reported.

Fentanyl pills. Photo: CNN.

It’s even scarier: according to a CNN report, 10.1 million Americans ages 12 and older abused opioids in 2019, including 9.7 million prescription painkiller users and 745,000 heroin users.

In late 2022, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) announced that life expectancy in the United States had fallen to its lowest level in two decades, partly due to the increase in fentanyl overdose deaths. Those who died from the use of the substance, they announced, were mostly under 40 years of age.

From another angle, these are very easy-to-hide pills. They are smuggled camouflaged in cars, suitcases, and the clothes of those who cross the southern border.

In 2022, DEA agents reported seizing around 14,000 pounds of fentanyl at border posts, a true record. But such lethal merchandise can even enter the country in mail packages weighing less than 1 kilogram. The chemicals used to make it are often shipped from China to Mexico. Also from India.

The Biden administration is credited with committing $4 billion in funding from the COVID-19 relief package, known as the American Rescue Plan, to combat fentanyl overdose deaths, including expanding services for the substance use disorder and mental health. But so far, their efforts have been insufficient. This is where, in part, the crisis arises.

The scapegoat: Mexico

In 2023 things have taken a troubled course in Republican discourse. In January, former President Trump alluded to sending “special forces” and using “cyber warfare” to hit Mexican cartel leaders if he were re-elected and called for “battle plans” to attack Mexico.

For their part, the same month, Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.) introduced a bill seeking authorization for the use of military force to wage a “war against Mexican cartels.” Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) said he was willing to send troops into Mexico to attack drug lords, even without government permission. And Republican lawmakers from both houses have introduced a bill to classify various cartels as “foreign terrorist organizations.”

Deep down they weren’t new ideas. They were handled and disposed of first during the Obama administration and then under Trump himself. But in this context, they have been gaining strength among the most conservative and belligerent sectors of the Republican Party.

At first, it was considered an outlandish proposition with little prospect: for the United States military to attack fentanyl laboratories and traffickers in Mexico, with or without the permission of the Mexican government, to fight a scourge that has claimed the lives of dozens of thousands of Americans was not something that was talked about every day.

Dan Crenshaw. Photo: Crohn.

But the idea was clear: Washington had to take justice into its own hands in the face of the “dysfunctionality” of the Mexicans. Texas Congressman Dan Crenshaw said all they want is to take on powerful criminal groups that terrorize the Mexican people, bribe and threaten Mexican politicians, and poison Americans.

However, not all party leaders signed up for the chorus. John Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, said unilateral military operations were “not going to solve the problem.” And the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Mike McCaul (R-Texas) expressed his concerns in the sense of possible “immigration implications and the bilateral relationship with Mexico.”

The Democrats, for their part, reacted to these proposals starting with the president himself, who expressed his refusal to launch an invasion and refused to apply the terrorist label to the cartels. According to the Biden team, two executive orders issued expanded the power of the authorities to attack transnational drug organizations.

“The administration is not considering military action in Mexico,” National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson said. “Designating these cartels as foreign terrorist organizations would not grant us any additional authorities that we don’t already have.”

Gen. Mark Milley. Photo: Military Times.

On the other hand, the army’s high command did not support them either. General Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said that invading Mexico “was a bad idea. I wouldn’t recommend anything be done without Mexico’s support,” he stressed.

Outside of Congress, however, politicians like Ron DeSantis have continued to push the traditional line of blaming immigrants for drug trafficking. “We have people crossing illegally from every country in the world. And what has that brought us? Now the leading cause of death among people ages 18 to 45 is fentanyl overdoses,” he said.

Last March, GOP White House hopeful Nikky Haley visited the border and called for special forces to be sent to Mexico to deal with cartels “like we did ISIS.” “The Mexican president is told: either you do it or we do it.”

Another candidate for the Republican nomination, Vivek Ramaswamy, has tweeted for his part that President “Biden sits in the White House and watches the fentanyl crisis as if he were a bystander. I will use our army to annihilate the cartels.

”

Nikki Haley. Photo: REUTERS.

All of the above, and other facts omitted for reasons of space, led to a progressive poisoning of the atmosphere. According to an Ipsos poll, 53% of Americans agreed that there was an “invasion” of the southern border; almost 40% claimed that most of the fentanyl entering the United States was trafficked by illegal immigrants, a percentage that rose to 60% among Republicans — despite being an entirely false claim.

The Mexican reaction

The reaction of the Government of Mexico did not wait. “If they do not change their attitude and think that they can use Mexico for their propaganda and political purposes, we are going to call for them not to vote for that party,” President López Obrador said last March.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Photo: REUTERS/Luis Cortés.

Andrés Manuel López Obrador made it clear that these Republican proposals were unacceptable and outside international law. “What do these mean, interventionist, arrogant think they are? Mexico is respected,” he stressed. And he recalled that Mexico “was not a protectorate or a colony of the United States.”

Later, despite assuring that relations with the United States “were in good health,” he launched into criticizing the role of agencies such as the DEA and the State Department in Mexican territory: “Mexico is much safer than the United States.”

“No country fights trafficking like Mexico,” said Secretary of Foreign Relations Marcelo Ebrard in the classic political hyperbole typical of these cases.

Despite the above, the messages from the Mexicans sounded loud and clear. First: the White House could not afford not to cooperate with its neighbor to the south in dealing with the problem. And second: the United States had to recognize its responsibility as the world’s leading consumer of drugs. But for those Republicans, they went with the wind.

Towards the future?

Most analysts and experts agree that instead of stopping, Republicans of this type will continue to wave the “Mexican fentanyl” banner from now on. As this perception of threat grows among their voters, the idea of harsh measures against their neighbor finds more acceptance among themselves and those around them

.

Donald Trump in Waco, Texas. Photo: Getty Images.

If a Republican were to defeat Biden in 2024, the risk of all that nonsense becoming politics is as real as it is an undesirable possibility. Just a fact if this were to happen: at the end of last March, during an election rally in Waco, Texas, Donald Trump compared the number of deaths from a fentanyl overdose to a military attack.

In these cases, the usual thing happens: over and over, blame it on the other. This is an aggressive and dangerous discourse that emphasizes the supply side of drugs while trying to minimize the dynamics brought to the market by the abundant and growing demand for fentanyl in the United States

.

Alfredo Prieto

Investigador, editor y periodista. Ha trabajado como Jefe de Redacción de Cuadernos de Nuestra América, Caminos, Temas y Cultura y Desarrollo, y ejercido la investigación y la docencia en varias universidades. Autor de La prensa de los Estados Unidos y la agenda interamericana y El otro en el espejo.

Elections Cuba 2023: something new?

I will point out here some data and considerations to contribute to an alternative vision within the impressions shared on social networks and reports, with different discourses.

by  Rafael Hernández
April 28, 2023
in In plain words

Photo: Ernesto Mastrascusa/EFE.


In these brief notes, I limit myself to arguing to what extent the last elections for deputies to the National Assembly of People’s Power (ANPP) in Cuba show significant changes. I am not trying to defend a thesis or give an opinion on what I would like to happen, but to record those changes, in what distinguishes this process, that is, in its own terms.

Given the brief space and the nature of this publication, I will point out here some data and considerations to contribute to an alternative vision within the impressions shared on social networks and reports, with different discourses, prevailing in the formation of public opinion.

In general, these discourses do not explain the functioning of the political system, and above all, they ignore differences and nuances that can be found in the impartial examination of the available data on candidates and voting results. Although I have analyzed elsewhere the last three elections, in 2008, 2013 and 2018, the exhaustive comparison with these would be the subject of another text.



The size of the ANPP in 2023 was reduced from 605 to 470, that is, 22.3% less seats. This reduction was based on the regulation established in the 2019 Constitution, according to which, there would be a deputy for every 30,000 inhabitants, or a fraction greater than 15,000, in each municipality.

In the process of conformation of the ANPP, the popular vote, since 1992, has played a role in two decisive moments. The first, by electing the base delegates, publicly nominated in open candidacies and voted in direct and secret suffrage, who constitute the pool for half of the ANPP.

The second, by confirming or rejecting, through direct and secret suffrage, the selection previously made by mass organizations, municipal assemblies and electoral commissions at the municipal and national level.

According to data provided by the National Electoral Council (CNE), some 19,000 pre-candidates formed the starting list, made up of 12,427 municipal delegates elected throughout the country, and the proposals of electoral organizations and commissions.

This list was reduced to 4,000, which were the pool of nominees. Debated in 900 meetings between the mass organizations, the Municipal Assemblies of People’s Power, and the commissions themselves, this list was reduced to the 470 seats of the new ANPP.

So, the ratio between pre-candidates and each seat was 40. This filtering process, not the open candidacy, is the decisive one in the configuration of the new ANPP.

To this configuration corresponded 221 grass-root delegates, originally nominated and voted openly, almost half (47.02%) of the recently constituted 10th Legislature. According to the CNE, the mass organizations and the commissions proposed and elected another 249. As I noted above, in a process that is characterized by nominating and at the same time electing a candidacy, which the popular vote merely confirms.

Compared to previous elections, the proportion of grass-root delegates in this nomination was the same (47% in 2018). The main difference was in the meetings between those 470 nominees and their voters in each municipality. These had a different extension and intensity than other years.

For seven weeks, between February 6 and March 24, all the nominees visited the municipalities they would represent in the ANPP. In the current context of crisis, these exchanges between voters and nominees did not have a ceremonial bias, but rather opened up another style and, possibly, a real and close commitment between municipalities and deputies.

Votes: the macro

As is known, in these elections more than 75% of the electoral registry voted.

The province with the lowest electoral participation was, as expected, Havana (65%). It was followed by Holguín (72.8%) and Guantánamo (73.8%). Those with the highest attendance at the polls were Ciego de Ávila (86.1%) and Matanzas (83.88%). These two provinces were also the ones that voted the least blank ballots: Matanzas (4.57%), Ciego (4.98%); together with Camagüey (4.99%).

The ones that deposited the most blank votes were Pinar del Río (8.22%), Holguín (6.9%), Villa Clara (6.82%) and Sancti Spíritus (6.69%). All above the most abstentionists, Havana (6.66%) and Guantánamo (5%).

The ones with the most annulled votes were Mayabeque (5.84%) and Havana (5.1%). The ones that voted the least were Guantánamo (1.98%), Santiago (2.44%), Granma (2.52%), Holguín (2.75%), Ciego de Ávila (2.82%) and Isla de la Juventud (1.66%).

The blank vote can be taken due to disagreement or disapproval, discomfort with the economic situation; that is to say, as a protest vote, as it is usually called. It can also be a vote against those candidates. Or the system as such.

As for the annulled vote, this is even more uncertain, and cannot be mechanically added to the blank votes. Anyone who has seen a vote count knows that writing a sentence on the ballot, no matter what it says, leads to an annulment. I have seen ballots annulled for saying that “I vote No because this Constitution does not have an article that protects animals” or “I fully support this Family Code.”

Indeed, if one carefully observes the differences between the provinces, it will be found that abstention, blank vote and annulled vote are not in line in most cases, as would be logical if all expressed political opposition to the government or to the system.

I wonder how the results are interpreted in any other country, where voting is not compulsory, just like here: are those who are not going to vote, do not vote for any of the candidates, or write on the ballots, are they counted as opposition to the system?

Some observers have pointed out that “the deputies were elected by 71% of the valid votes cast (that is, by those that were not blank or null).” But naturally, there were candidates who were elected with a vote lower than 71%.

Regarding the question of the united vote, almost all the provinces, with the exception of Havana and Artemisa, reached more than 70% of the vote for all the nominees. However, the data on the provinces that followed this slogan the most and the least show a significant configuration.

The territories that were above the national united vote of 72.10% were Isla de la Juventud (77.4%), Las Tunas (76.2%), Granma (75.4%) Guantánamo (74.0%), Santiago de Cuba (74.4%), Sancti Spíritus (73.37%), Villa Clara (73.85%) and Pinar del Río (73.33%).

Those that least voted for the complete candidacy were Havana (68.45%), Artemisa (69.82%), Matanzas (70.11%), Ciego de Ávila (70.28%), Camagüey (70.30%).

When taking a careful look at these two groups and comparing them with the configurations of abstention/blank vote/null vote, it will be found that Havana is consistent, but others not so much.

For example, the provinces with the best participation rates and valid votes, Matanzas, Ciego de Ávila and Camagüey, cast fewer united votes, while they were among those with the fewest blank votes. That is, they voted more, better, but at the same time, more selectively.

These results could lead to a reflection on the raison d’être of the united vote. Especially when the logic of the vote did not follow, in many cases, that “lesser-known candidates” are at a disadvantage.

This apparent inconsistency, which seems to reflect contradictory or chaotic behavior of the electorate, may have causes that require a deeper analysis of political behavior in the various regions, and which we do not usually do.

The vote: the micro

By closely examining the structure of the vote, it is possible to see who was the most and least popular.

Of all the candidates, the ones that gathered the most votes at the national level, with 92% of the valid vote or more, were:a gynecologist (97.54%),
a female Polytechnic professor (95.68%),
a female municipal enterprise lawyer (95.54%),
a female municipal government official (95.25%),
Raúl Castro (94.97%),
a senior leader of the Council of Ministers (94.9%),
a female laboratory technician (94.77%),
a female nurse (94.7%),
a female judge (94.56%),
an Olympic athlete (94.44%),
a female vice-president of the Council of Ministers (94%),
a female sports referee (93.86%),
a female leader of the People’s Council (93.80%),
a female leader of the ANPP (93.7%),
a female leader of the People’s Council (93.66%),
a female primary school teacher (93.6%),
an ICAP leader and National Hero (93.37%),
a female president of the People’s Council (93.36%),
a doctor and hospital director (93.34%)
a female president of the Municipal Assembly (93.31%),
a female enterprise director (93.23%),
a female primary school teacher (93.01%),
a female secondary school teacher (93%),
a female state director of commerce (92.96%),
a female enterprise director (92.84%),
a female scientific leader and member of the Political Bureau of the PCC (92.73%),
a female high-performance athlete (92.58%),
a female municipal health leader (92.45%),
a doctor (92.33%),
a president of the People’s Council (92.29%),
a female officer of the Ministry of the Interiorl (92.28%),
a female municipal management official (92.19%),
a general of the Revolutionary Armed Forces and member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of Cuba (PCC) (92.15%),
a female art instructor (92.11%),
a leader of the ANPP (92%).

When going through the list of 48 candidates with 91% or more of the votes throughout the country, it is noted that 38, that is, 79%, of this select group were women.

In general, the candidates who reside in the municipalities were the most popular, but also the least popular. The logic that the most voted were the best known was not fulfilled here either.

For example, in a municipality of Havana (Plaza), where the best-known candidates obtained less than 80% of the votes, the representative of a religious association of African origin, which lacks public projection, and in the area of the capital with the least legacy of Santeria, was the most voted, with almost 90% of the votes.

On the other hand, the representative of a popular religious association in a working-class area (Centro Habana) obtained the fewest votes in the municipality, while the candidate with the most votes turned out to be an artist of a rather unpopular genre in that area of the capital. At the same time, none of the other 16 artists who made up the candidacy, some very frequent on TV, obtained the highest number of votes in their respective municipalities.

On the other hand, among the least voted by municipality at the country level were some well-known among their voters: a provincial leader of the PCC, a representative of the unions, a governor, a religious leader.

At the same time, in the same municipality where leaders of the PCC and the local People’s Power had fewer votes at the national level, the most popular was a leader of the Council of Ministers, with 91.7% of the votes.

Who are the deputies in the ANPP 2023

Of the 470 members of the new ANPP, 303 are new deputies for a total of 64.46%. This renewal rate was above that achieved in the last elections, in 2018, where they were just over 50%.

Some changes in the profile of those elected with respect to the 9th Legislature are relevant. For example, in 2018, the entire Council of Ministers had seats in the ANPP. In this one, there are only 13 members, which represents only 42% of the Council of Ministers, and 3% of the Assembly.

By simple inspection, it is noted that there is a higher presence of representatives of the People’s Power of the municipalities (107); university professors (21) and teachers (15); leaders of educational institutions (22); health workers (31); natural science scientists (13); artists without posts (17). There is the same number of military (23); a slightly smaller number of agricultural cooperative members (15); a similar proportion of religious leaders (3).

The main deficit is the lack of representation of entrepreneurs and workers in the private sector. As well as the low presence of mass organizations. The latter, whose role is defined as key in the conformation of the candidacy, have a relatively minor weight in its composition. The 19 deputies that represent them are 4.04% of the ANPP, compared to 9.25% in the outgoing ANPP.

The characterization on the profile of the deputies, however, requires going deeper and with more detailed qualitative elements, which are not contained in this simple picture.

Subject to returning at another time to the new Council of State, and to the changes in the Council of Ministers, to put them into perspective, I will only briefly point out, before finishing, a couple of considerations….

Renewals and continuities

The Council of State, with 21 members, was renewed by 43%, incorporating a biotechnology leader, a female social worker, a female municipal president and another female president of a People’s Council, a female hospital director, a female enterprise director from the energy sector, a female Paralympian athlete, a union leader of economists, a student leader and a historian.

To affirm that it did not change, because “the senior staff” is still aging and is the same, is more an a priori statement, based on expectations, than a well-founded political assessment.

Nor is it appropriate to confer on the age of the President of the Council of State the evidence that nothing can change when the other two members of the presidency are both under 60 years of age. Not to mention the other members of the Council, in particular the women and the new ones, who contribute their visions and local experiences from outside the capital.

Regarding the changes in the Council of Ministers, I limit myself to reminding that this recently elected government is headed by the same president, in his second term.

When Raúl Castro took office as president, in 2008, he changed 12 ministers, 9 of them the economic team of the cabinet. Even though it was the same party, as we all know, he made all those changes, which affected some of Fidel Castro’s appointees. It wasn’t so much like that in his second term.

When Díaz-Canel took office, he incorporated 11 new ministers into the 33-position cabinet. Of the team of ministers and presidents of central organizations with which he inaugurated his first term in 2018, 8 members remain in the newly appointed Council of Ministers. The remaining members of the cabinet have been replaced in the last five years; in some cases, such as the Central Bank, more than once. Of the 4 ministers replaced in 2023, 3 were in the cabinet from the government of Raúl Castro.

The first substantive question is whether there is, this time, the political will, at the highest level, to convert the ANPP into an institution whose weight in national politics corresponds to the new Constitution, and which is on par with the present moment.

The second is whether, in his second term, the current president will make the legacy of Raúl Castro, and his reformist imprint, the foundation of the so-called continuity. A continuity that can only be made politically effective by changing everything that must be changed.

Rafael Hernández
Politólogo, profesor, escritor. Autor de libros y ensayos sobre EEUU, Cuba, sociedad, historia, cultura. Dirige la revista Temas.

Four thousand lithographic stones: the discovery of a treasure in Havana

It was the photographer and researcher Julio Larramendi who noticed the narrow opening in the wall that gave way to the treasure.

by  Rafael Acosta de Arriba
April 22, 2023
in Cuba

The stones that required a more intense wash were those that at the time were protected with an adhered paper. 

A surprising find occurred recently at the Engraving Experimental Workshop of Havana (TEGH): a batch of 4,000 lithographic stones stacked in a dark and narrow space in a corner of the workshop.

The stones, with their stamped inscriptions and images, had been there for decades. It was the photographer and researcher Julio Larramendi who, looking for a specific stone to illustrate one of his books, noticed the narrow opening in the wall that led to the treasure

.

Original state of the deposit of the lithographic stones in the Engraving Experimental Workshop. Some 4,000 units were found.

After this, a process of cleaning and identification of the images engraved on their surfaces, as well as their possible authors, began. The prints were studied and classified. Some sixty students from the Information Sciences course at the University of Havana and the same number from the Workshop School of the Office of the City Historian carry out these tasks.

Duly protected and under the supervision of experts, these young people have extracted the stones one by one to move them to a nearby gallery, always inside the Workshop, an institution that has preserved this heritage for all these years.

The students of the Faculty of Communication begin the extraction and transfer of the stones

.

A total of 62 first-year students participated in the first phase of the project.

This singular team has processed two thousand pieces. Each one has gone through three phases: definition of the state of conservation of the stone and its inscription; washing and scanning of the stone and the stamp drawn on it; and, finally, classification (for example, those that are considered artistic drawings are immediately delivered to the TEGH).

Some pieces required a previous washing. It was done very carefully so as not to affect the drawing.

Once this process is finished, the stones are returned to a provisional space within the Workshop until it is decided what to do with them. In a month or so, the work should be completed.

This process was supported by software developed at the Faculty of Information Sciences that allows saving the data obtained and identifies the student who did the work. Subsequently, research can be carried out on the topics represented in the stones.

Once clean, the stones are measured, classified by drawing quality, identified by themes, scanned with phones, and photographed. 

At the end of one of the cleaning and cataloging sessions, each student in this brigade chose the stone of their choice. 

The pieces have enormous heritage value. Among them stand out stones with the signature of Roberto Matta, Antonia Eiriz, Víctor Manuel, Manuel Mendive and Antonio Canet, among other recognized artists.

Stone worked by Antonia Eiriz. 

In addition, others no less valuable pieces reveal their use for commercial purposes associated with the tobacco industry, first of all, and with beverages and liquors, fruits, perfumery, pharmacy, and chocolates.

This could be the prelude and foundation for various exhibitions, books and other actions of artistic and cultural value. It could even revive an old dream: the creation of a museum of Cuban engraving

.

Based on the drawings it has been possible to date the lot between the end of the 19th century and the middle of the 20th. 

Stone stamping in Cuba had as antecedents the engraving on wood and metal in the 18th century. Then the lithographic technique arrived from Europe, associated at first with the musical development of the colony. Sheet music and other musical prints were the first use for these prints. Then came the rural and city landscapes, the portraits of colonial personalities and the scenes of types and customs of insular society. Lithographic art has left us excellent books, today classic pieces of our literature and visuality.

According to various studies, a French miniaturist painter who had lived on the island for years, Santiago Lessier Durand, established the first workshop in Havana in 1822. From then on, a solid lithographic tradition began to develop.

This is confirmed, in her book La memoria en las piedras (Ediciones Boloña, 2001), by the renowned researcher Zoila Lapique Becali, Honorary Member of the Academy of History of Cuba and an authority on the subject.

Subsequently, the lithographic activity was modernized and industrialized in order to produce the largest number of copies of the prints for commercial purposes.



1 of 6
Lithographic stone of the Tobacco Factory.
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This is how the first half of the 20th century went. With the political and cultural dynamics that began with the triumph of the Cuban Revolution, it was a matter of time before a Workshop for artistic engraving was created.

In July 1962, the TEGH was founded, located today at the end of the Callejón del Chorro in the Plaza de la Catedral, Old Havana. This emblematic institution began to work with disposable equipment from the former Havana Lithographic Company. During its existence, it has gone through several stages in terms of development, but it has always been the epicenter of the creative work and exhibition of engravers in any of the techniques. Before settling in its final location, the Workshop was in other buildings, including the Palace of the Marquis of Arco.

There is a version of its history that speaks of the fact that its presses, plates and stones were in serious danger due to the defensive fever that prevailed in the first revolutionary years. Lithographic stones were used at this time to create parapets and barricades. The machines would be melted down for the same military purpose, in the face of continuous aggression and threats from the United States.

It is also said, in this version, that Che Guevara and the poet Pablo Neruda — the latter visiting Cuba and attentive to the claims of the local engraver José Venturelli, a worker at the Workshop — intervened jointly in favor of the Workshop not becoming extinct.

In the institution’s six-decade history, the best Cuban engravers and many artists of other nationalities have passed through its machines and produced splendid pieces of art, while exhibitions and events have been held that have exalted the tradition of engraving on the island.

PHOTOS Julio Larramendi

Cuba and U.S. exchange information to cooperate against terrorism

They addressed issues such as the hijacking of aircraft and maritime vessels. Also, the use of digital media for violent purposes, according to a press release published by the MININT.

by  OnCuba Staff
April 30, 2023

AN-2 aircraft belonging to the National Air Services Company (ENSA) for fumigation work upon arrival in the United States after being stolen by its pilot. Photo: Telemundo.

Cuba and the United States this Thursday and Friday held in Havana a technical exchange on cooperation to combat terrorism, reported the Cuban Ministry of the Interior (MININT).

Authorities from both governments discussed the hijacking of aircraft and maritime vessels, as well as the use of digital media for violent purposes, according to a press release published this Friday on MININT’s official website.


“Both parties agreed on the importance of cooperation in this sphere, and agreed to continue technical meetings in the future,” it said.

Likewise, it regretted that the administration in Washington accuses Cuba in an “arbitrary and unjustified” manner of being a “sponsor of terrorism” and considered that carrying out this exchange “is an expression of the commitment of the Cuban government in the fight against this scourge, and of the commitment to take all necessary steps to combat its perpetrators.”

“It does not contradict the absolute rejection of the list issued by the State Department on this issue, which was duly recorded at the meeting,” added the report cited by Cuban media.

The MININT recalled that this meeting “is a continuation of what was agreed in the bilateral talks on application and compliance with the law,” held on January 18 and 19 of this year on the island.

After the January talks on cooperation in judicial matters, this is the second meeting of this type held since the bilateral talks on national security were halted during the administration of former President Donald Trump (2017-2021).

In addition, it has taken place after several months of a timid rapprochement between the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden and the island’s authorities, marked by the resumption of talks to discuss immigration issues.

The Cuban delegation was made up of representatives of the Ministries of the Interior and of Foreign Relations, the Office of the Attorney General of the Republic and the General Customs of the Republic.

Officials from the Justice, State, National Security Departments and the Embassy in Cuba participated for the United States.

EFE/OnCuba

Yoon’s overwhelming pro-US policy could become nightmare for S.Korea, with losses to outweigh gains, experts say

By  Yang Sheng

GLOBAL TIMES

Published: Apr 29, 2023

Photo:AFP

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol's overwhelming pro-US policy, including South Korea's new nuclear deterrence agreement with the US that could allow Washington to dispatch a nuclear ballistic missile submarine to South Korea, has drawn strong criticism from its neighboring countries China, Russia and North Korea, with analysts saying Yoon's increasingly extreme foreign policy has "lost balance" and will likely see losses outweigh gains.

During a discussion held at Harvard Kennedy School on Friday, Yoon said that the new nuclear deterrence agreement that he reached with the US should be understood as an "upgraded" version of the allies' 1953 Mutual Defense Treaty, according to the Yonhap News on Saturday.

Under the Washington Declaration Yoon adopted with US President Joe Biden on Wednesday, the two countries agreed to "share information on nuclear and strategic operations and planning," and regularly deploy US strategic assets to South Korea, to enhance the credibility of the US "extended deterrence." Extended deterrence refers to the US approach of mobilizing all of its military capabilities, including nuclear, to "defend" South Korea.

Chinese experts said deploying US nuclear weapons on the Korea Peninsula is an extremely dangerous and provocative act toward China, Russia and North Korea. And that Washington and Seoul will face strategic level retaliation which could spark another nuclear crisis in the region.

Kim Yo-jong, vice department director of the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea, said in a statement that published on the North Korean state media Korean Central News Agency on Saturday that Yoon's visit to Washington "was an occasion for us to have much clearer understanding about the root-cause and physical entity disturbing peace and security of the Korean Peninsula and the region."

The formation of Washington-Seoul "Nuclear Consultative Group," the regular and continuous deployment of US nuclear strategic assets on the peninsula, combined with frequent military exercises "made the regional politico-military situation unable to be extricated from the currents of instability. This provides us with an environment in which we are compelled to take more decisive action in order to deal with the new security environment," Kim said.

Song Zhongping, a Chinese military expert and TV commentator, told the Global Times on Saturday that the US "extended deterrence" strategy is not for defending its ally South Korea but an approach to use North Korea's military development as a pretext to deploy US strategic assets, including nuclear weapons, to impose more strategic pressures to China, Russia and North Korea.

"This will do nothing good for the denuclearization of the peninsula but to make the situation worse and also seriously threaten the security of China, Russia and North Korea. After the Ukraine crisis in Europe, the US is likely to use the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue to provoke another crisis in Asia, but China and Russia will not allow the US to do so," Song noted.

Yoon's foreign policy was criticized by a South Korean opposition leader as humiliating on Friday.

Lee Jae-myung, chairman of the main opposition Democratic Party said Yoon's performance at his meeting with Biden ended up in a humiliating situation of generously spreading "global hogang" diplomacy. Hogang, a buzzword in Korean, refers to a customer who is easy to deceive.Lee also criticized Yoon for his improper positions on the Ukraine crisis and the Taiwan question, according to the Xinhua News Agency.

China and Russia also criticized the US-South Korea agreement. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said in a statement published on Friday that "We saw the reports about the agreement between the US and the Republic of Korea on joint planning with respect to the use of nuclear weapons. This turn of events is clearly destabilizing in nature and will have serious negative consequences for regional security projecting onto global stability."

Russia also responded to Yoon's comment about considering supply arms to Ukraine. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said any decision by South Korea to supply arms to Ukraine would make Seoul a participant in the conflict, Reuters reported on April 19.

On Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said the US puts its own geopolitical interests before the security of the whole region, when asked to comment on the Washington Declaration.

"The US has been a source of tension through exploiting the issues on the Korean Peninsula. The US behavior is a result of its Cold War mentality. What the US has done stokes bloc confrontation, undermines the nuclear non-proliferation system and hurts the strategic interest of other countries. It has also increased tensions on the peninsula and jeopardized regional peace and stability. This is the very opposite of the goal to denuclearize the peninsula and we are firmly against this," said Mao.

According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry on April 23, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Sun Weidong made solemn representations to South Korean Ambassador to China Chung Jae-ho over Yoon's wrong remarks on the Taiwan question.

If Seoul ignores warnings from China, Russia and North Korea and completely executes US order for "extended deterrence" in the region, South Korea will likely face retaliation from China, Russia and North Korea, said experts.

This will cause serious damage to South Korea's security and development, because Yoon is making his country appear more hostile to its three important neighbors, analysts said. China and Russia are also key trade partners for South Korea.

This could become a "nightmare" for Yoon and his country, and the protection and investment provided by the US are not worth the loss that South Korea will suffer in terms of both economy and security, experts said.

Jin Canrong, associate dean of the School of International Studies at the Renmin University of China, told the Global Times on Saturday that Yoon's decision-making on foreign policy has been deeply affected by the pro-US advisors, and that his policy has lost balance and become increasingly extreme, but "this kind of unwise policy is unsustainable, because it is against the national interests of South Korea."

America’s Spies Are Losing Their Edge

New technologies and a lack patriotism in Silicon Valley are leveling the playing field for Russia and China.

Technologically challenged.
Photographer: Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty Images

By Max Hastings
April 29, 2023

What a month this has been for secrets! Or rather, for no-longer-secrets. Ukraine is not winning its war, thinks the US military. Egypt planned to send rockets to Russia. Russia’s Wagner Group mercenaries tried to buy arms from Turkey through Mali. The US has penetrated Russian intelligence services.

These are just a few of the delicious tidbits allegedly exposed by 21-year-old Air National Guardsman Jack Teixeira, apparently from a Pentagon treasure trove.

If we sit down and think about these revelations, almost none comes as a surprise to those of us who study defense and foreign affairs. Everybody knows that almost all nations spy on their friends as well as on their enemies. For many moons there has been informed speculation about the stuff showcased in the leaks. The real damage derives from their authoritative sourcing to Washington — to America’s 18 intelligence agencies, nine of them within the Department of Defense.

“Scandals” of this kind make headlines with monotonous regularity. The successes of intelligence agencies remain hidden from our gaze for years if not decades. The failures, however, fill whole books within months. As a student of warfare, I long ago concluded that while intelligence is a vital tool of national security, the activities of all secret services vacillate between deadly gravity and farce.


Quite a few senior spymasters go mad, as did James Jesus Angleton, the Central Intelligence Agency’s counterintelligence chief who convinced himself in the 1960s and 1970s that Western agencies were riddled with traitors. Meanwhile, the CIA’s operations against Cuban leader Fidel Castro were unfailingly foolish and unsuccessful.

The agency has always attracted more than its rightful share of cowboys. One day in 1972, I found myself stuck with a BBC camera crew at Pakse in Laos, when a communist offensive was launched. Out on the town’s airfield, I spotted three obvious Americans in jeans and sweatshirts, carrying rucksacks and M16 rifles.

I asked them when the rumored “round-eye” evacuation flight would be coming in. They ignored me, looking studiously at the horizon until, at my third time of begging for information intended to save our frightened British necks, one man muttered between clenched teeth: “We don’t exist. We’re not here.”

They were spooks, of course, behaving with a childishness that was pretty common in Indochina in those days, matched by ruthless carelessness with local people’s lives.

Amy Zegart of Stanford’s Hoover Institution is an expert on US intelligence and author of the excellent recent book, “Spies, Lies and Algorithms.” (She recently did a Q&A with my Bloomberg Opinion colleague Tobin Harshaw.) She argues that the nature of spycraft is changing dramatically. The days of the cowboys, which started with the World War II Office of Strategic Services created by “Wild Bill” Donovan, are numbered. If Western intelligence, and above all counterintelligence, is to perform its critical role in Western defense, it must keep pace with the revolution, match new threats.

We in the Western democracies enjoy the huge privilege of living in open societies, as Chinese, Russian, North Korean and Iranian people do not. But part of the price of our freedom is that we are more vulnerable to attack, especially by foreign intelligence services.

Before, during and after World War II, Soviet agents operating freely in the US were able to recruit some 200 American informants, some of them deep inside government and the scientific community. Federal Bureau of Investigation director J. Edgar Hoover built a legend around the alleged prowess of his bureau (and himself), but in truth the Feds were slow to catch communist traitors. Many went unidentified for years.

In more recent times, cash has inspired treason more often than ideology. The FBI handed $7 million to an ex-KGB man who provided the information that, in 2001, belatedly unmasked the long-serving Moscow informant Robert Hanssen. The Russians paid $4.6 million to Aldrich Ames, a CIA case officer finally exposed in 1994, who provided them with information that enabled them to arrest and execute at least 10 American sources inside Russia.

As late as 2007, the US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment did not even mention cyberwarfare. Today, of course, it is recognized as central to security, and both the Chinese and Russians are good at it. The transfer, and thus theft, of secrets has been made far easier by the migration of information from paper to computers.

Most corporations and some elements of national defense are appallingly vulnerable, because of lax electronic data security, highlighted by the Russians’ 2020 SolarWinds hack of Washington systems. Zegart asserts that almost every Chinese weapons system has been created from stolen American technology, which former US cyberwarfare chief Keith Alexander branded bitterly as “the greatest transfer of wealth in history.”

It is ironic that the Chinese secured vital technical data on the F-35 and F-22 jets at a time when allies including Britain were struggling to secure Washington’s approval for access to the codes necessary to operate the aircraft, which they were then purchasing from the US.

Zegart raises the specter that before long, quantum computing may make possible the unravelling of all encrypted data. Sure, the West will be able to exploit this. Our enemies are likely to do even better, however, because we have many more high-tech secrets worth stealing.

It was once the case that intelligence gathering, and especially aerial surveillance, were monopolies of governments. Today, almost anybody can play. Small commercial satellites provide information that allows civilian intelligence geeks to unravel extraordinary secrets. A satellite image of an earth landscape that a few years back sold for $4,000 is now available for $10.

Meanwhile, a college student exploited publicly accessible facial recognition technology to identify most of the “Faces of the Riot” — the people who sought to storm the Capitol on behalf of President Donald Trump in January 2021.

Only around a quarter of all material in intelligence reports derives from secret sources. The intelligence community — or IC — needs to exploit open sources and integrate civilian talent into its processes much more energetically. The risk must be recognized that some civilian whistle-blowers and wannabe investigators will pursue conspiracy theories and peddle false information. But others bring to the party real assets, especially their own brains and insights.

Where once spies were obliged to enter a foreign country to steal its secrets, today not only states but nonstate actors can wreak untold harm through hacking and cyberattacks without venturing beyond their own front doors.


No American or Israeli hacker set foot in Iran in 2010 in order to insert the deadly Stuxnet worm in Tehran’s nuclear program’s computers, wrecking centrifuges and setting back Iranian weaponization by a year. Selfies taken by Russian soldiers in Ukraine have proved invaluable in creating order-of-battle intelligence about President Vladimir Putin’s invading army.

As globally available information doubles every two years, technology shows itself increasingly more potent than human analysts, even before artificial intelligence kicks in. Machines can identify Chinese missile sites on satellite images more quickly than human analysts.

A small army of Russian hackers, often authorized and funded by the Kremlin but mostly outside the government intelligence organizations, makes constant attacks on Western interests. Former CIA Deputy Director David Cohen said of the Russian online disinformation campaign in the 2016 US presidential election: “They wanted Donald Trump to win, they wanted Hillary to lose, but most of all they just wanted to f*** with us.”

Zegart believes that American dominance of the information and technology universe is under severe threat, which can only grow greater: “The intelligence playing field is leveling, and not in a good way.”

Among her sensible prescriptions, perhaps the most important is for greater integration between the IC and American business, especially technology companies. Yet the tech giants often recoil from cooperation with government, and especially with its intelligence agencies. In times gone by, in the world wars and the Cold War, government officials routinely sought the aid of big corporations, and got it. Today, patriotism has atrophied.

Facebook professes to regret its past failures, and expresses a commitment to serve the public interest. But behind closed doors, says Zegart, it seeks “to deny, delay and deflect regulation and stifle critics.” Google canceled an artificial intelligence partnership with the Pentagon in 2018 after a protest by more than 3,000 employees.

Susan Gordon, an intelligence veteran, observes that Google, Apple and Facebook are huge players in the cyber universe, but seem accountable to no one. She, like Zegart, argues that all the tech companies must accept their share of responsibility for US national security.

Now that cyberattacks have become a routine part of the 21st century, the West is obliged to defend itself daily. The National Security Agency reportedly employs more mathematicians than any other organization in the US. Spies, or rather intelligence organizations, have unwillingly gotten dragged into warfighting, especially the electronic kind.

I wish that I could share Zegart’s expressed belief that CIA analysts are people of “exceptional intellectual skills.” Intelligence organizations, like the rest of us, are lousy at predicting the future, rather than merely describing the present and past. She quotes Phil Tetlock of the University of Pennsylvania, who studies the track records of modern prophets, and who observes acidly that “the average expert was about as accurate as a dart-throwing chimpanzee.”

Some of the chimpanzees serve at CIA headquarters in Langley, Virginia. Several of their failures have been catastrophic, most spectacularly the 2002 claim that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction, which triggered President George W. Bush’s Iraq war.

It has always seemed to me an intractable problem that whereas in World War II, intelligence could recruit some of the most brilliant civilians in American and British society, in modern peacetime it is much tougher to get the best and brightest to accept relatively ill-rewarded government jobs.

Public service is unfashionable, on both sides of the Atlantic. Some spooks are indeed smart, but others are not. It should be a source of concern that the vast Chinese and Russian intelligence and especially cyberwarfare communities may have access to some cleverer people than their Western counterparts.

Zegart highlights another grave challenge facing intelligence services — a decline in public trust, partly fed by the West’s enemies through deepfakes, social media and disinformation, but also fueled by some prominent Americans. It was an extraordinary moment when Trump, as president, declared that he trusted Putin’s denials of Russian interference in the 2016 election more than he trusted his own nation’s intelligence services.

Trump appeared dismissive of the activities of, for instance, the Heart of Texas and United Muslims of America Facebook accounts, created by the Russian Internet Research Agency, the former peddling the slogan “Time To Secede.”

In a new Foreign Affairs piece, Lawrence Norden and Derek Tisler of the Brennan Center for Justice highlight the critical role in defending American democracy of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency’s “Rumor vs. Reality” resource, colloquially known as “rumor control.” This provides factual information to dispel some of the commonest election conspiracy theories.

Several states, including Connecticut, Kentucky and Ohio, have established rumor control notice boards, providing factual information to voters and explaining the multiple safeguards against election fraud. In the new world, measures such as this provide reinforcement for the defenses manned by the intelligence agencies. They are needed not merely to validate US domestic processes, but also wild foreign- and home-generated fake news reports.

Zegart expresses concern about the image of intelligence projected by Hollywood’s movie and TV output, which emphasizes torture, treachery and assassination. Those play only the most marginal roles in the IC’s real-life activities. Yet I was troubled to receive a letter a few months ago from a former British spymaster commenting on a newspaper article I had written, in which I asserted that information secured by torture is seldom reliable.

On the contrary, claimed my acquaintance laconically: torture works; often produces valuable results. Well, maybe. But it alarmed me that he had no compunction about expressing this view in writing, above his own signature.

I am also bothered, as Zegart seems not to be, by the dilemmas posed by drone assassinations in far-flung places. Sure, most of those whom the CIA-directed drone crews kill are enemies of freedom, murderous fanatics. But what happens when our enemies start playing this game with our people, perhaps our prime ministers and presidents?

Drones are frighteningly available, for relatively tiny sums of money. They are likely to become terrorist tools of choice.

Amy Zegart’s book performs an important service by highlighting the need for the intelligence services to update their outlook, personnel and operations to face the new world, and especially the cyberworld.

Meanwhile, Jack Texeira’s alleged superleak reminds us that intelligence and covert activities — “edgy things,” as former CIA director Michael Hayden calls them — are huge business both for the good guys and the bad ones. The other side is getting better at them all the time. We need to do the same, even if some of the nasty bits make us feel queasy.

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Max Hastings is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former editor in chief of the Daily Telegraph and the London Evening Standard, he is author, most recently, of "The Abyss: Nuclear Crisis Cuba 1962."

OPINION
Jerry Springer, carnival barker of a modern freak show, cleared way for Trump


Nick Bryant

Journalist and author

WESTERN AUSTRALIA TODAY
April 30, 2023 — 

When did the penny drop that America was careering off the rails? Doubtless for many it was watching those early returns on election night in 2016, as it became shockingly clear that the politically impossible was about to be made real and Donald Trump would soon be reciting the presidential oath of office.

Perhaps it came earlier in the Obama years, after reading all those polls which suggested three-quarters of Republicans doubted whether the president was even a US citizen. Or maybe, like me, you turned on cable television sometime in the ’90s and found yourself transfixed by The Jerry Springer Show.

Donald Trump “stole my show and took it to the White House”, Jerry Springer once complained.

The presenter of what TV Guide once famously labelled the worst television program of all time died last week, although clips from his shows will continue to enjoy an afterlife on YouTube for years to come.

Springer, of course, was the carnival barker of a modern freak show, which featured, among other things, the “man who married his horse”, a porn actress who claimed to have slept with 251 men in the space of 10 hours, and a steady stream of white supremacists, including a self-styled “breeder for the Klan”. In a tabloid decade that brought us the OJ Simpson trial, John Wayne Bobbitt and his penis-severing wife, Lorena, the Pamela Anderson and Tommy Lee sex tapes, and what we erroneously called the Monica Lewinsky scandal, Springer plumbed new lows.

His show was vulgar, foul-mouthed, gratuitously combative, unashamedly populist, defiantly anti-elitist and a massive ratings winner. Little wonder that Springer complained years later that Donald Trump “stole my show and took it to the White House”.

There was also something about the emotional connection that the host enjoyed with his audience that foreshadowed the rise of Trump. Certainly, it was easy to imagine the people in his studio audience who chanted “Jerry, Jerry, Jerry” joining in the Trumpian chorus that bellowed “Lock her up, Lock her up”. When Hillary Clinton spoke of “the basket of deplorables” she could almost have been describing some of Springer’s most devoted fans.

Most bizarre and unhinged moments on the Jerry Springer Show


The Jerry Springer Show was notorious for fights, bizarre relationships and shocking reveals.

Unlike Trump, however, Springer realised the ridiculousness of it all, and was laughing up his sleeve at his followers. A former liberal-minded mayor of Cincinnati, who had once worked on Robert Kennedy’s presidential campaign, he wanted to see America elect its first female president. “Hillary belongs in the White House,” he tweeted after watching a presidential debate in 2016: “Donald Trump belongs on my show.”

But those Clinton/Trump debates sometimes felt like Jerry Springer had produced them; and never more so than when, in the aftermath of the Access Hollywood scandal, Trump arranged for some of Bill Clinton’s female accusers, including Paula Jones and Juanita Broaddrick, to sit in the studio audience. It was a Springer-esque stunt.

Certainly, Springer is a seminal figure in the trashification of US popular culture. The reality TV shows that became so prominent at the turn of the century tried in many ways to do in primetime what Springer was doing so profitably in daytime: to tantalise, to shock, to thrive off orchestrated confrontation. Maybe the cable news channels that arose in the ’90s, like Fox News, borrowed from that same confrontational playbook, as they sought out guests with the most outlandish views and tried to set up polarising on-air battles (although the founding CEO of Fox News, Roger Ailes, honed those tricks working for the Nixon campaign in 1968).

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Crucially, all this came about at the very moment when politics, entertainment and even journalism were becoming so synergetic, a symbiosis illustrated by Bill Clinton playing his saxophone on late-night TV and telling MTV that he preferred briefs rather than boxers. In those years, the famed Overton window of political acceptability moved towards becoming floor-to-ceiling.

In the 30 years since, US political culture has unfortunately absorbed the worst traits of American popular culture. The freakish dramatic personae, faux combat and pantomime-style chanting of trashy daytime television. The venality and amorality of reality shows, such as Survivor, which are based on the belief that winning isn’t everything, when it is the only thing. The tropes of professional wrestling. The narcissism of social media influencers. All this helps explain how a reality TV star reached the White House, and why the GOP has become so crazed.

Unquestionably, the Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene is pure Jerry Springer. You could build an entire show around her pet theory that a “Jewish space laser” was to blame for the 2018 California wildfires. Other Republican lawmakers could tell us how they bought 251 assault rifles in 10 hours. The Proud Boys could take the seats once occupied by the KKK. And all the time the studio audience could chant: “Donald, Donald, Donald.” The Trumpification of US politics might not have happened had its Springerisation not come about first.