The energy footprint of architecture built by oil

After the oil boom, energy efficiency a low priority for buildings in Arab Gulf states countries

Peer-Reviewed Publication

NORWEGIAN UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

 

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THESE ARE SOME OF THE EXAMPLES OF BUILDING TYPES THE RESEARCHERS EXAMINED AS THEY PUT TOGETHER ENERGY AND MATERIAL USE ASSESSMENTS OF THE ARAB GULF STATES. 

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CREDIT: GRAPHIC: SAHIN AKIN, NTNU

The six Middle East countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council are located in one of the harshest places on the planet. Temperatures on hot summer days can top 50 degrees C. Access to water in these desert lands is also challenging.

Now, as leaders from across the globe gather in Dubai for international climate talks, a new report shows how the discovery of oil in the region radically changed housing stocks, enabling a shift from traditional to energy-intensive Western architecture. As a result, four of six Gulf States now rank among the world’s worst greenhouse gas emitters, measured on a per person basis.

This high share of residential energy use is very unusual for countries with this level of income. Here we have a high-consumption economy.

“These countries are wealthy and electricity prices are subsidized by the government. So instead of investing in insulation or high quality materials, they just turn up their air-conditioning systems,” says Sahin Akin, a PhD candidate at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology's (NTNU) Industrial Ecology Programme (IndEcol).

Akin’s research was part of a larger effort at IndEcol to look more closely at regional differences in residential buildings worldwide. Residential buildings worldwide matter, because they account for fully 21 per cent of global energy use, and the materials used in their construction are responsible for 30 per cent of the global carbon footprint for overall materials production.

In this case, understanding how different kinds of housing drive energy and materials use can help policy makers adopt specific measures to help lower each country’s greenhouse gas emissions.

Building types important

Akin and his colleagues can’t look at every individual residential unit, of course, because that would be impractical. So what they did instead was to group related kinds of housing units into average types, which they called archetypes. All told, the researchers created 153 simulation models, boiled down to 6 different types, to describe typical housing in the region.

Before oil wealth changed the economic landscape in these countries, many people lived in traditional housing, Akin said.

“These were built by using traditional construction techniques and using local materials such as mud, adobe, and wood in some cases. So they were really good in terms of environmental performance,” he said, mainly because the structures were designed to cool passively, without the aid of air-conditioning, but also because they didn’t require the import of building materials.

Oil wealth, urbanization and the growth of the villa

The arrival of oil wealth resulted in more rapid urbanization in many of the countries, and the increased construction of a housing type that the researchers call a villa.

These structures can be two or three floors high, and can have separate entrances for men and women, in keeping with Muslim practice. There may also been housing for hired workers, such as housemaids and child care providers.

Population in the region went from 7.7 million in 1970 to 59.5 million in 2022, and is expected to jump to 73.4 million by 2050, according to figures from the United Nations.

The result of this trend is that while villas only accounted for 22 per cent of the total number of units in the Gulf region, they accounted for more than half of the total floor area. They tended to be very spacious, with an average of 62 m2 per person, which is nearly double the world average of 32 m2 per person.

And they can be energy intensive, Akin said.

Akin’s analysis found that among more populous countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the total amount of energy use was high, while smaller countries with higher GDP per capita, like Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain, had higher energy use per capita.

“This trend could be linked to the relatively high percentage of villas in the building stocks of these small countries, which use more energy than other building types,” he said.

Population growth a factor, too

Oil wealth also drove another important trend – population. Population in the region went from 7.7 million in 1970 to 59.5 million in 2022, and is expected to jump to 73.4 million by 2050, according to figures from the United Nations.

Oil wealth allowed more children to survive, and with a fertility rate of 6 births per woman, led to a quick growth in the native population. In addition, Akin says, oil wealth attracted immigrants in search of jobs. Workers were also recruited by families to work in households. While some villas might have housing for household help, many expatriates were housed in apartments or condominiums.

“We see these two distinct groups in the rich countries, expats living in condos and natives living in villas. These have differences in terms of energy use and materials, mostly by having more living space per person in villas,” said Edgar Hertwich, the senior author on the article.

Regulations can have an impact

Newly built villas with much more living space were generally the most energy intensive, but there was one surprising exemption, Akin said, which gives hope to the idea that regulations can have a positive effect.

Akin and his colleagues found that although Oman had a relatively high percentage of villas in its building stock, it had much lower energy use per capita than the other Gulf countries.

“Oman is different than the other countries because they tend to stick with the cultural habits of the past, with regulations that promote Islamic architecture,” he said.

Building regulations specify that building exteriors should be white, for example, which helps reflect the sun’s rays. That helps reduce the amount of solar heating, he said.

In contrast, Bahrain, despite being the smallest and least populous country in the region, had higher per capita energy use than the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Oman, Akin and his colleagues reported. They speculated that this was due to a number of factors such as lifestyle, climate, and building design.

Materials also important

When asked about the single most important finding of his research, Akin had a simple answer: Concrete.

Yes, concrete, or more exactly, its main component, cement, which with its production contributes nearly three times as much to global warming as air transport.

“The concrete use in all of those countries are a little bit concerning,  because it dominates the entire building stock, regardless of the country,” Akin said. “Even the traditional housing styles are also constructed with concrete in recent years because it's much more affordable and it's easy to use, it doesn't require specific skills.”

Aside from the actual carbon dioxide release from making cement, concrete has another feature that makes it a climate bad guy.

“Concrete has low environmental performance compared to traditional materials,” Akin said.

For example, concrete structures in the region are rarely insulated, unless there are mandatory building regulations that require it. And with low energy prices, it can be easy and cheap to just turn up the AC, he said.

In this context, traditional houses built with local materials are best, since the materials used for their construction generally have the lowest emissions. Houses that are built using traditional methods also use less energy because they are designed to work in the hot climate.

Unusual use linked to high consumption, population

Akin reported on a study that showed that implementing energy conservation measures in Gulf States’ residential buildings could cut energy use by up to 70 per cent. That’s no small percentage, given that housing overall is responsible for fully 70 per cent of all energy use in the region.

“This high share of residential energy use is very unusual for countries with this level of income,” Hertwich says. “We find similar shares in developing countries where subsistence production is important, and residences double as places of work. This is not the case in the Gulf. Here we have a high-consumption economy.”

Another concern is demography. As the fertility declines below replacement levels, smaller and smaller families come to occupy large villas. More floor area per person naturally means higher energy use per person.

The way forward

Akin and his colleagues hope these findings can make a difference in helping individual countries find ways to cut their energy and materials use.

One clear message is that given the region’s climate — hot and sunny — there is significant potential for renewable energy, such as thermal solar, photovoltaic solar and geothermal energy, he said.

Akin and his co-authors say their results can help identify opportunities to cut emissions and develop resource-efficient construction practices and tailored policies for improving the resource efficiency of buildings in the region.

“To mitigate the climate challenges of the future, we first need to have an understanding about the current situation of what's going on in those countries. And then we can address them much more effectively by developing some targeted scenarios for particular building typologies like villas, apartments or skyscraper flats,” he said. “And the ratio among the building stocks is changing across those countries. So we believe that country-specific studies are quite important.”

A modern Oman villa, but painted white and incorporating at least some characteristics of more traditional structures.

CREDIT

Basil Al Bayati, Wikimedia Commons, CC-BY-SA-4.0

Reference:
Sahin Akin, Chibuikem Chrysogonus Nwagwu, Niko Heeren, Edgar Hertwich,
Archetype-based energy and material use estimation for the residential buildings in Arab Gulf countries. Energy and Buildings, Vol. 298, 2023, 113537. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113537

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JOURNAL

Energy and Buildings

DOI

10.1016/j.enbuild.2023.113537 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Computational simulation/modeling

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Archetype-based energy and material use estimation for the residential buildings in Arab Gulf countries

 

Barbra Streisand: The first global Jewish superstar

International conference "CRITICAL BARBRA" pays tribute to multitalented artist

Meeting Announcement

GOETHE UNIVERSITY FRANKFURT

 

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INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE "CRITICAL BARBRA" PAYS TRIBUTE TO MULTITALENTED ARTIST. 

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CREDIT: SAM SIEGEL

FRANKFURT. One of her biographers once described her as the "world’s greatest living performer ": Barbra Streisand, born in Brooklyn, New York in 1942, is the focus of the international conference "CRITICAL BARBRA", held

from December 14 to 16

at Goethe University Frankfurt, Deutsches Filminstitut Filmmuseum

and the Jewish Museum Frankfurt

The event is organized by film scholars Prof. Vinzenz Hediger (Goethe University Frankfurt) and Prof. Marc Siegel (Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz).

Barbra Streisand is one of the most visible and influential figures in cinema and the music industry. She became famous both as a singer, whose mezzo-soprano voice easily spans three octaves, and through numerous film roles, as a director, dancer, comedian and storyteller. From the 1980s onwards, she was for many years considered the most powerful woman in Hollywood. But Streisand was unique in another important way: Breaking with a long tradition of assimilation in the arts, she was the first recognizably and unapologetically Jewish global superstar. Sporting a Jewish name, Streisand abstained from and often made jokes about the kind of plastic surgery many of her predecessors in show business had undergone.

The CRITICAL BARBRA conference focuses on the multifaceted performer and cultural icon in a multidisciplinary perspective. Streisand's persona and work offer numerous opportunities to analyze modern and contemporary musical and visual culture in its full breadth and depth. "We believe that a conference on Streisand at this point in time can make a useful contribution to the debate about Jewish visibility and the rise of new forms of antisemitism, with a particular focus on current debates about the arts and the art world," says organizer Vinzenz Hediger.

CRITICAL BARBRA pays homage to different aspects of Streisand's talent by means of film screenings, academic lectures, discussions and performances. All events will be held in English.

 

 

First global estimate of marine aquarium trade to encourage sustainable practices

Researchers estimate 55 million marine organisms worth $2.15bn are sold in the marine aquarium trade each year, making it as valuable as global fisheries such as tuna

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF PORTSMOUTH

New research has generated the first global estimate of the number of fish and invertebrates within the Marine Aquarium Trade (MAT), as a way to incentivise industry sustainability and coral reef conservation.

Every year 55 million organisms are sold - worth $2.15bn at retail – placing the MAT on par with global fisheries, such as tuna, in terms of economic significance.

The paper, published in Science Advances, estimates there are currently over 8,000 retailers globally and 6.7 million marine hobbyists. This number is expected to increase to 45 million by 2100 based on population increases and as countries increase their wealth.

Species traded for aquariums are worth more money per kilogram, compared to fish for food. For example, the average price achieved by the fishers for the MAT is $148 per kg, whereas tuna is $3 per kg. 

More than 25 per cent of all known marine species - including high value fish and organisms - are found on coral reefs. These ecosystems are crucial to millions of people as they provide a quarter of all the fish caught by developing countries that border the reefs.

However, scientists warn the aquarium trade is at a crossroads forced by threats from global climate change and other stressors.

Lead author, Professor Gordon Watson from the University of Portsmouth’s School of Biological Sciences, said: “We know that MAT puts stress on key habitats, but it can also help stimulate enthusiasm for marine conservation, and it is a valuable source of income for many communities. 

“Aquariums are a great way to educate people about how critical coral reefs are to a healthy and productive planet.”

This paper estimates there are around 500 species being regularly traded in the MAT; 210 fish, and 296 inverts. Twenty-five were identified as being at extremely high risk of being overfished, including species of snails, hermit crabs, and the Bangaii cardinal fish. Indonesian and Sulu-Celebes Seas are the areas most exploited.

“The Marine Aquarium Trade is a hugely valuable industry that has the leverage to generate change, providing a framework for fishers and governments to protect reefs, and as a result the communities that rely on them”, added Professor Watson.

“But data gaps are amplifying demands for an international ban on the trade. Our study goes some way to fill in these grey areas.”

Despite a growing awareness of the environmental impacts of the MAT, the authors warn if nothing changes it will transform into an aquaculture-dominated industry. This would see species farmed away from the reefs and associated coastal communities who rely on them to sustain their economy, or moving to more destructive methods of fishing.

Professor Watson said: “The trade finds itself at a crossroads with near-future governance decisions being critical for its long-term future. These choices can be distilled into a ‘business-as-usual’ approach or a ‘MAT positive’ one.”

The study has outlined a number of ways the MAT can become more sustainable:

• Species stock assessment of those most at risk and put in stock management
• Address mortality in the chain of custody
• Support local coral reef protection and restoration programmes
• Governance structures needed, similar systems to the tuna
• Successful introduction of the Fairtrade/MSC certification-style system to help implement these things

The paper concludes by saying a ‘MAT-positive’ future is imaginable, but requires real action on climate change, evidence-based management, consumer education, sustainable practice incentivisation, and over-exploitation assessments to ensure that the MAT becomes a ‘force-for-good’ and paradigm of sustainable coral reef fisheries.

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JOURNAL

Science Advances

DOI

10.1126/sciadv.adh4942 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Can the global marine aquarium trade (MAT) be a model for sustainable coral reef fisheries?

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

6-Dec-2023

 

Protected areas in Thailand are at a higher risk of forest fires when located away from indigenous communities, research finds

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF WARWICK

 

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AN ORDAINED TREE IN THAILAND – USING LOCAL ENVIRONMENTAL HERITAGE PRACTICES TO PROTECT FORESTS.

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CREDIT: NURTURING LIVES IN THE FOREST DOCUMENTARY, PROVIDED WITH PERMISSION.

Research from the University of Warwick has found that national parks and protected areas are at a higher risk of forest fires when located farther away from indigenous communities.

Based on the analysis of satellite images from Thailand and case studies from other Southeast Asian countries, the research demonstrates that policymakers can achieve improvements in forest health by working collaboratively with indigenous communities. Involving communities results in reduction of forest fires and air pollution.

Ivo Vlaev, Professor of Behavioural Science at Warwick Business School at the University of Warwick says that current green policies in Thailand do not take into account that indigenous communities have long-standing traditions and sustainable practices for protecting the land.

“Globally, Indigenous peoples' lands cover over 36% of intact forest landscapes, making them crucial for mitigating severe climate change. We also know that the loss of intact forest landscapes has been significantly lower on indigenous lands compared to other areas.

“Current green policies exclude local communities from using the forest and at the same time prevents them from implementing effective environmental management practices, such as community forestry, tree ordination – a symbolic Buddhist ritual which involves wrapping orange robes to help people view them as sacred and therefore prevent logging and deforestation -, forest fire monitoring, and animal grazing - all of which have been proven to protect forest cover.”

The Mae Sa Noi village in the Chiang Mai highlands in Thailand is home to a Hmong community. The villagers have successfully instilled ancient Hmong rituals which involve annual celebrations for a deity believed to be inhabiting the sacred tong seng tree in the forest. 

Co-author of the research, Dr Marco J Haenssgen from Chiang Mai University, Thailand is in close contact with the community through his work. He says: “The purpose of these celebrations is to strengthen the protection of the forest while also showcasing the community’s commitment to the natural environment to the local authorities who are also invited to these events."

The Hmong community has experienced competition for natural resources after the state promoted rural development initiatives in order to diversify agriculture away from opium production in the 1960s. Subsequently, stringent forest protection enforcement led to arrests and fines throughout the 1980s and 1990s. 

“After experiencing these conditions for many years, the community is facing widespread outmigration of young people, volatility of agricultural markets, and even challenges around food security,” continues Dr Haenssgen.

Thai conservation law currently stands in contrast to the global policy direction that aims to support indigenous livelihoods and preserve terrestrial areas. Some policies meant to prevent deforestation actually have the opposite effect by displacing indigenous people and pushing them into more intensive land use, such as cash-cropping which sees continuous cultivation of crops using harmful chemical fertilisers.

“Policymakers need to recognise the value strong communities play in healthy environments and communities need space and the right to thrive sustainably,” says Professor Vlaev.

“It’s not just about giving indigenous people a fair share of the economy, it is about implementing green policies which are actually effective. Several countries have successfully worked with indigenous communities to develop inclusive conservation policies.”

Countries such as Indonesia, New Zealand, Philippines, Norway and Malaysia have involved communities in policy decision-making and achieved sustainable outcomes while respecting indigenous rights.

Mae Sa Noi community celebrating Hmong New Year at the tong seng sacred tree in its local community forest.

CREDIT

Nurturing Lives in the Forest documentary, provided with permission.

Recommendations for inclusive forest conservation policies

Academics say Thailand can learn lessons from the experiences of other countries and set out a series of practical recommendations to develop effective sustainable policies and enhance forest conservation:

• Implement flexible laws and regulations that consider the specific needs and aspirations of Indigenous communities. The Royal Forestry Department holds the responsibility to create designated zones where Indigenous peoples have the right to manage and utilize forest resources following their traditional practices. This area may extend further into national park territory than presently. Providing a legal framework for Indigenous communities to assert their rights over ancestral lands and resources can also contribute to sustainable forest management.
• Establish collaborative arrangements involving local communities to co-care for forest land. Involving indigenous communities in forest fire prevention, waste collection, and other activities will enhance their sense of ownership and motivation to protect and conserve the forest.
• Ensure land protection rights and secure tenure for Indigenous communities. The Ministry of Interior and the Ministry of Social Development and Human Security play key roles in strengthening measures to safeguard these rights and address land conflicts. Additionally, establishing social insurance schemes and promoting welfare benefits can improve the social and economic well-being of Indigenous communities, reducing pressure on agricultural production.
• Thailand can encourage consumers to support highland communities by labelling products sourced from them, produced under culturally protected and sustainable indigenous practices. The Thai Food and Drug Administration ensures compliance with Good Manufacturing Practices, supporting sustainable production methods and quality. The Royal Project Foundation, a major agricultural-environmental development organization, can also support food labelling as a market-based initiative. “No-burn” labels can be used to signify that this agriculturist has not practiced crop burning that is responsible for air pollution.
• Thailand should streamline and expedite the process of issuing land titles to recognize their customary land rights, to join the rest of the world in recognising the capabilities of Indigenous people.
• The Ministries of Culture, Interior, Social development and Human Development have a central role in promoting cultural diversity and enforcing Indigenous cultural freedom, thereby helping Thailand expand the special cultural zones that provide legal protection and recognition for Indigenous cultures and traditions. These zones should be designed to preserve and promote Indigenous languages, knowledge systems, and cultural practices, yet with a focus on everyday heritage rather than locking communities into “traditions” that are bound to evolve.

 

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JOURNAL

Forest Policy and Economics

DOI

10.1016/j.forpol.2023.103092 

ARTICLE TITLE

The impact of conservation and land use transitions on the livelihoods of indigenous peoples: A narrative review of the northern Thai highlands

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Dec-2023

 

Giant doubts about giant exomoons

The extrasolar planets Kepler-1625b and Kepler-1708b are supposedly the home worlds of the first known exomoons. A new study now comes to a different conclusion.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT

 

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SEVERAL INFLUENCES CAN CREATE A MOON-LIKE SIGNAL IN A LIGHT CURVE – EVEN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF AN ACTUAL MOON.

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CREDIT: MPS/HORMESDESIGN.DE

Only two of the more than 5300 known exoplanets have so far provided evidence of moons in orbit around them. In observations of the planets Kepler-1625b and Kepler-1708b from the Kepler and Hubble space telescopes, researchers had discovered traces of such moons for the first time. A new study now raises doubts about these previous claims. As scientists from the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) and the Sonnenberg Observatory, both in Germany, report today in the journal Nature Astronomy, "planet-only" interpretations of the observations are more conclusive. For their analysis, the researchers used their newly developed computer algorithm Pandora, which facilitates and accelerates the search for exomoons. They also investigated what kind of exomoons can be found in principle in modern space-based astronomical observations. Their answer is quite shocking.

In our Solar System, the fact that a planet is orbited by one or more moons is rather the rule than the exception: apart from Mercury and Venus, all other planets have such companions; in the case of the gas giant Saturn researchers have found 140 natural satellites until today. Scientists therefore consider it likely that planets in distant star systems also harbor moons. So far, however, there has only been evidence of such exomoons in two cases: Kepler-1625b and Kepler-1708b. This low yield is not surprising. After all, distant satellites are naturally much smaller than their home worlds - and therefore much harder to find. And it is extremely time-consuming to comb through the observational data of thousands of exoplanets for evidence of moons.

To make the search easier and faster, the authors of the new study rely on a search algorithm they developed and optimized themselves for the search for exomoons. They published their method last year and the algorithm is available to all researchers as open source code. When applied to the observational data from Kepler-1625b and Kepler-1708b, the results were astonishing. "We would have liked to confirm the discovery of exomoons around Kepler-1625b and Kepler-1708b," says first author of the new study, MPS scientist Dr. René Heller. "But unfortunately, our analyses show otherwise," he adds.

Hide and seek of an exomoon

The Jupiter-like planet Kepler-1625b made headlines five years ago. Researchers at Columbia University in New York reported strong evidence of a giant moon in its orbit that would dwarf all the moons in the Solar System. The scientists had analyzed data from NASA's Kepler space telescope, which observed more than 100,000 stars during its first mission from 2009 to 2013 and discovered over 2000 exoplanets. However, in the years that followed the 2018 discovery claim, the exomoon candidate forced astronomers to play a cosmic version of hide-and-seek. First it disappeared after the Kepler data had been cleaned from systematic noise. Yet clues were found again in further observations with the Hubble Space Telescope. And then last year, this extraordinary exomoon candidate got company: according to the New York researchers, another giant moon much larger than Earth orbits the Jupiter-sized planet Kepler-1708b.

The right match

"Exomoons are so far away that we cannot see them directly, even with the most powerful modern telescopes," explains Dr. René Heller. Instead, telescopes record the fluctuations in brightness of distant stars, the time series of which is called a light curve. Researchers then look for signs of moons in these light curves. If an exoplanet passes in front of its star as seen from Earth, it dims the star by a tiny fraction. This event is called a transit, and it re-occurs regularly with the orbital period of the planet around the star. An exomoon accompanying the planet would have a similar dimming effect. Its trace in the light curve, however, would not only be significantly weaker. Due to the movement of the moon and planet around their mutual center of gravity, this additional dimming in the light curve would follow a rather complicated pattern. And there are other effects to be considered, such as planet-moon eclipses, natural brightness variations of the star and other sources of noise generated during telescopic measurements.

In order to detect the moons nevertheless, both the New York researchers and their German colleagues first calculate many millions of "artificial" light curves for all conceivable sizes, mutual distances and orbital orientations of possible planets and moons. An algorithm then compares these simulated light curves with the observed light curve and looks for the best match. The researchers from Göttingen and Sonneberg used their open-source algorithm Pandora, which is optimized for the search for exomoons and can solve this task several orders of magnitude faster than previous algorithms.

No trace of moons

In the case of the planet Kepler-1708b, the German duo now found that scenarios without a moon can explain the observational data just as accurately as those with a moon. "The probability of a moon orbiting Kepler-1708b is clearly lower than previously reported," says Michael Hippke from the Sonneberg Observatory and co-author of the new study. "The data do not suggest the existence of an exomoon around Kepler-1708b," Hippke continues.

There is much to suggest that Kepler-1625b is also devoid of a giant companion. Transits of this planet in front of its star have previously been observed with the Kepler and the Hubble telescopes. The German researchers now argue that the instantaneous brightness variation of the star across its disk, an effect known as stellar limb darkening, has a crucial impact on the proposed exomoon signal. The limb of the solar disk, for example, appears darker than the center. However, depending on whether you look at the home star of Kepler-1625b through the Kepler or the Hubble telescope, this limb darkening effect looks different. This is because Kepler and Hubble are sensitive to different wavelengths of the light that they receive. The researchers from Göttingen and Sonneberg now argue that their modeling of this effect explains the data more conclusively than a giant exomoon.

Their new, extensive analyses also show that exomoon search algorithms often produce false-positive results. Time and again, they "discover" a moon when there really is just a planet transiting its host star. In the case of a light curve like that of Kepler-1625b, the rate of "false hits" is likely to be around 11 percent. "The earlier exomoon claim by our colleagues from New York was the result of a search for moons around dozens of exoplanets," says Heller. "According to our estimates, a false-positive finding is not at all surprising, but almost to be expected," he adds. 

Strange satellites

The researchers also used their algorithm to predict the types of actual exomoons that could be clearly detectable in light curves space missions like Kepler. According to their analysis, only particularly large moons orbiting their planet in a wide orbit are detectable using current technology. Compared to the familiar moons of our Solar System, they would all be oddballs: at least twice the size of Ganymede, the largest moon in the Solar System and therefore almost as big as Earth. "The first exomoons that will be discovered in future observations, such as from the PLATO mission, will certainly be very unusual and therefore exciting to explore," says Heller.

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JOURNAL

Nature Astronomy

DOI

10.1038/s41550-023-02148-w 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

ARTICLE TITLE

Large exomoons unlikely around Kepler-1625 b and Kepler-1708 b

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Dec-2023

 

Three proposals from researchers to meet EU climate goals

Peer-Reviewed Publication

LINKÖPING UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

MATHIAS FRIDAHL, ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR, LINKÖPING UNIVERSITY, SWEDEN.

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CREDIT: MAGNUS JOHANSSON

The EU countries have decided that the EU is to be climate neutral by 2050. By 2030, greenhouse gas emissions must have been reduced by at least 55% compared to 1990. 
To meet this target, continued vigorous efforts are needed to reduce emissions, but that alone will not be enough. This is the conclusion of seven researchers from Sweden and Germany in an article in the journal Communications Earth & Environment. One of them is Mathias Fridahl, associate professor at the Department of Thematic Studies - Environmental Change at Linköping University, Sweden.

“We have painted humanity into a corner. It’s no longer possible to solve the climate crisis simply by reducing emissions. We also need to clean the atmosphere of carbon dioxide,” says Mathias Fridahl.

The problem is that there are currently no incentives for companies and countries to invest in new technologies to remove carbon dioxide. That is why a change in the EU's climate policy is needed.
“There are many technologies that are quite well developed, but which aren’t economically viable,” says Mathias Fridahl.

He and his colleagues have three proposals that they believe could soon make a difference.

Anyone contributing to the removal of carbon dioxide should be able to get paid for it under the EU emissions trading scheme. This should only apply to methods that have a long life span, that is, capture linked to the storage of carbon dioxide for thousands of years.
To get the trading scheme up and running, the researchers propose that the EU set up a central bank for carbon dioxide. The bank would give investors a good price for the carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere. In order to maintain the drive to continue reducing emissions at the same time, the proposal is that the bank strongly regulates how removal may be used to compensate for continued emissions.

The bank’s financial muscle could come from revenues from carbon tariffs on goods from outside the Union.

To stimulate other measures with a shorter life span, the researchers propose an extension of the EU’s land use regulation. This sets out the measures to remove carbon dioxide that member states are allowed to be credited with when reporting their climate emissions. Today, there is a limited amount of removal methods in forestry and agriculture. The researchers contend that if the regulation were extended to more measures, it would encourage countries to invest resources in carbon removal.

The researchers also want the EU to identify which emissions will be very difficult or impossible to do anything about. Greater clarity would reduce the risk of companies and member states postponing measures in the hope that their emissions will belong to the group that is difficult to tackle. This would stimulate innovation and efforts to reduce emissions in parallel with initiatives to remove carbon dioxide.

Mathias Fridahl stresses that, if the proposals are implemented, it is important that they are not used to avoid the requirements to simultaneously reduce emissions.
He thinks the issue will be addressed as early as next year. The European Commission is then to present proposals for a new intermediate objective for climate action up to 2040. 
“In this process, the prospects are good for addressing the question of removal methods,” says Mathias Fridahl.

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JOURNAL

Communications Earth & Environment

DOI

10.1038/s43247-023-01121-9 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Commentary/editorial

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Novel carbon dioxide removals techniques must be integrated into the European Union’s climate policies

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Dec-2023

COI STATEMENT

The authors declare no competing interests. Miranda Böttcher is an Editorial Board Member for Communications Earth & Environment, but was not involved in the editorial review of, nor the decision to publish this article.

 

Acoustic monitoring shows surprising resilience of subtropical forests to extreme weather – but climate change looms

Analysis of 13,000 hours of recorded sound from an acoustic monitoring network across Okinawa Island, Japan, reveals that ecosystems are more resilient to super-typhoons than anticipated but are threatened by climate change.

Peer-Reviewed Publication

OKINAWA INSTITUTE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY (OIST) GRADUATE UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: 

MAP OF OKINAWA WITH DIFFERENT LAND COVER TYPES AND FIELD SITE LOCATIONS DERIVED FROM A 2015 LANDSAT 8 IMAGE. 

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CREDIT: KENNETH DUDLEY, ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND INFORMATICS SECTION, OIST.

If a tree falls in a forest, and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound? Researchers from the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST) have answered this question by remotely recording the soundscapes of Okinawan forests, allowing them to track how extreme weather events like typhoons affect different ecosystems on the island. Overall, they found that the forests were surprisingly resilient – and the soundscapes offer a powerful way to glean crucial information that can guide conservation efforts.

In September 2018, super-typhoon Trami shook Okinawa, and six days later came the slightly less severe typhoon Kong-Rey. To probe the true extent of the damage these storms caused to local wildlife, researchers from OIST and Trinity College Dublin analyzed 13,000 hours of audio from soundscapes collected before, during, and after the typhoons.

The soundscapes were collected as part of the Okinawa Environmental Observation Network (OKEON) Churamori Project, which includes an acoustic monitoring network spanning 24 sites across the island of Okinawa, from the untouched forests in the north to the urban sprawl of the south. OKEON depends on close collaboration between researchers, local experts and institutions in Okinawa, and citizen scientists.

“Working with huge acoustic datasets from natural ecosystems gives a more holistic view of real-world responses to disturbance, which are difficult to observe using theory or laboratory experiments,” says Dr. Samuel Ross from the Integrative Community Ecology Unit at OIST and lead author of the study, which was published in Global Change Biology.

By converting the recordings to numerical data, the researchers were able to detect the overall level of animal sound—the so-called biophony—at each of the 24 sites. They also used supervised machine learning to rapidly identify the bird calls of three Okinawan bird species, which made it possible to track their presence through time and space.

Despite the relatively small size of the island, environments across Okinawa reacted very differently to these massive weather disturbances. “We expected that the ecosystems would respond in the same way to the typhoons, but surprisingly, we got the complete opposite result,” says Dr. Ross.

Instead of typhoons destroying habitats and quietening wildlife, the microphones picked up different numbers of bird calls at the various field sites. Human development didn’t seem to account for the different responses either. “We were surprised by how resilient the developed sites were,” Dr. Ross explained. “We expected that sites where humans have altered the structure of ecosystems would be more vulnerable.”

That resilience may not hold, however. Climate change is bringing larger, longer lasting, and more frequent typhoons that hit further inland. Super-typhoons like Trami used to be very rare, but in August 2023, another one struck. “Ecosystems in Okinawa may be pre-adapted to extreme weather to some degree, which might explain the resilience of these ecosystems to typhoons, but climate change could push these ecosystems to their limit,” says Dr. Ross. “If you hit an ecosystem over and over again with extreme disturbances, eventually there comes a point where it can't take anymore.”

Acoustic monitoring networks such as the OKEON sensor array offer an alternative to costly and labor-intensive traditional ecological monitoring. This approach can also yield targeted recommendations for local conservation efforts in vulnerable areas. The study tracked the calls of three bird species: the large-billed crow, the Ryukyu scops-owl and the Japanese bush warbler. While the crow and the scops-owl resisted the extreme weather events, the number of bush warbler calls diminished, suggesting this bird struggled after the typhoons. With this knowledge, ecosystem managers in Okinawa could focus their conservation efforts on the species worst affected by natural disasters.

 

The three bird species examined in the study. From left to right: Japanese bush warbler, Ryukyu scops-owl, and large-billed crow. 

CREDIT

Patrick Kuhn

Okinawan soundscapes from super-typhoon Trami 

Three audio recordings from Yanbaru forest in Okinawa, Japan, each taken at 06:00. The first 15s clip is from 30 Aug 2018, before super-typhoon Trami, the second is from 29 Sep 2018, during the typhoon, and the final clip is from 29 Oct 2018, after the second typhoon Kong-Rey.

CREDIT

Audio: OKEON Churamori Project. Video (in order of clips): Tomomi Okubo, Andrew Scott, Alexandru Mihai, Andrew Scott, Aya Peloquin, Adrian Skov

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JOURNAL

Global Change Biology

DOI

10.1111/gcb.17067 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Data/statistical analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Divergent ecological responses to typhoon disturbance revealed via landscape-scale acoustic monitoring

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

7-Dec-2023