It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, November 12, 2024
Location of the world’s oldest ochre mine detected
University of Cologne
image:
Ochre mine in the Lion Cavern in Eswatini, a country in southern Africa
In a recent study, an international team of researchers used luminescence dating and geochemical analyses to confirm the location of the oldest ochre mine in the world. It is located in the Lion Cavern in Eswatini, a country in southern Africa. Not only have the researchers dated the mine to an age of around 48,000 years, but they were also able to show how the ochre spread from the mine to nearby areas. The researchers analysed 173 samples from 15 Stone Age sites and reconstructed the methods of ochre extraction, use and transport networks. The study ‘Ochre communities of practice in Stone Age Eswatini’ was published in Nature Communications.
Ochre is a naturally occurring pigment made from iron-rich materials. It has been used by people for thousands of years – for cave paintings and to decorate symbolic objects and personal ornaments. Ochre has cultural, historical and spiritual significance in many societies and therefore offers researchers valuable insights into the growth of human society and human self-expression.
For this study, the researchers created a geochemical fingerprint of the ochre from the Lion Cavern region. For this purpose, small samples of ochre artefacts are safely made radioactive by neutron irradiation. Some of the resulting products can be radioactive. When these radioactive materials begin to decay, they emit characteristic energies. These can be measured and can thus provide information on where the material comes from and how it was created. In this way, the origin and transport routes of the artefacts can be reconstructed. In addition to this method, the researchers used an advanced laser technology, which makes the sample’s molecular bonds vibrate. This vibration indicates the mineral composition of the ochre.
Dr Svenja Riedesel from the Cologne Luminescence Laboratory at the University of Cologne’s Institute of Geography contributed to the dating of the samples. Luminescence dating is based on the fact that materials such as quartz or feldspar absorb small amounts of energy from their surroundings over the course of time. The main source of this energy is the natural radiation in the ground, which is all around us. Small defects in the crystal structure of the material store this energy. “To determine the age of a material, we take a sample and expose it to light or heat in the laboratory,” said Riedesel. “In this way, the stored energy is released again and a weak light – known as luminescence – is produced.” The amount of light released indicates how long the material has not been exposed to sunlight or heat.
Riedesel used quartz grains to date the materials inside of the now abandoned mining caves of Lion Cavern. The results of the luminescence samples show that the caves were created by mining at least 42,000 years ago. This confirms earlier geochronological findings suggesting that ochre was mined in the Lion Cavern 48,000 years ago. “With the help of Optically Stimulated Luminescence dating, we were able to prove that this is the oldest known ochre mine in the world,” summarized the geographer.
Ochre communities of practice in Stone Age Eswatini
Longer droughts, bigger floods: UMass Amherst hydrologist maps the future of water in New England
Climate change is causing a cascade of changes to everything from harvests to flooded basements; new research will help us know what to expect
University of Massachusetts Amherst
video:
“We’re 30–40 years into significant changes to New England’s climate,” says Boutt, “and we’re seeing marked shifts in everything from the water table, to the intensity of rainstorms, to the length and timing of droughts.”
AMHERST, Mass. — New England is warming faster than any other part of the United States due to climate change. Part of the havoc a warming world wreaks is on the “water budget”—the frequency, timing and amount of precipitation, where that moisture goes once it lands, how it interacts with trees and plants, how much evaporates and how it eventually seeps into the ground and flows as subsurface water. Thanks to a $498,999 grant from the United States Geological Survey (USGS), David Boutt, professor in the Department of Earth, Geographic and Climate Sciences at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, will spend the next three years building advanced integrated hydrologic models that will allow New England to predict with spatial precision how the region’s water budget will change in the coming years.
“We’re 30–40 years into significant changes to New England’s climate,” says Boutt, “and we’re seeing marked shifts in everything from the water table, which is rising throughout the region, to the intensity of rainstorms, which are getting fiercer, to the length and timing of droughts.”
Traditionally, most hydrologic research in the U.S. has focused on the arid parts of the country, but, notes Boutt, “especially in the wake of the devastating floods that hit Vermont and Western Massachusetts the last few summers, the USGS is proactively meeting the need New England has for advanced research.”
For his own part, Boutt, along with his UMass Amherst team, which includes a postdoctoral researcher, a graduate student and two undergraduate students, has three objectives.
The first is to analyze past hydrological datasets from the USGS and other state agencies and partners. “We are tremendously lucky that Massachusetts and the USGS have a long history of close cooperation, and we have one of the best, longest and most robust instrumental datasets on rainfall, streamflow, groundwater levels and more,” says Boutt.
The state also has more recent, extremely granular groundwater level datasets that can be used to track the effects of particular hydrologic events. “In the past, data was often recorded monthly by hand, but more recently the USGS and its partners in Massachusetts have recorded data at 15-minute intervals — which means that we can track exactly how the water from, say, a particular thunderstorm moved through the hydrologic system,” says Boutt.
In the second phase of the project, Boutt and his team will analyze the stable water isotopes in ground and surface water. These isotopes are like fingerprints and can tell researchers exactly where the precipitation came from. Given that climate change is altering weather patterns, Boutt wants to see where the water in New England is coming from — the North Atlantic, the Arctic, the Gulf of Mexico — and how its origin is shifting over time.
Finally, in the third phase of research, Boutt and his team will use what they learn from their historical analysis and isotope research to build a series of advanced hydrologic models capable of fine-grained predictions of how the cycles of both surface and groundwater will change according to different climate scenarios.
“Combining the USGS’s expertise with the power of academic research is the best way to understand where we’re headed,” says Boutt, “and will help us prepare for an uncertain future.”
Through analysis of over 3,100 medical board disciplinary proceedings across the nation’s five most populous states, Saver found that spreading misinformation to the public was the least common reason for physician discipline, accounting for just 0.1% of all disciplinary offenses. Even when physicians spread misinformation directly to patients, it resulted in discipline in only 0.3% of cases – exponentially lower than more common reasons like practitioner negligence at 28.7%.
“There’s a striking disconnect between medical boards’ statements about the dangers of physician misinformation, as well as increasing public attention to the problem, and the actual enforcement actions,” said Saver. “Even within the small number of actions involving misinformation, the data shows that boards are far more comfortable disciplining physicians for misconduct involving direct patient care than addressing erroneous public statements. Yet false public communications may cause wider harm.”
The research, which examined disciplinary actions from January 2020 through May 2023, revealed that medical boards face significant challenges in policing physician misinformation, particularly communications made to the general public rather than to individual patients. This raises important questions about whether the current medical board system is equipped to address the modern challenge of medical misinformation.
“Medical boards traditionally focus on monitoring physician-patient relationships,” Saver explained. “But in today’s digital age, when a single physician spreading misinformation can influence thousands of people, our regulatory framework may need to evolve.”
Journal
JAMA Network Open
Article Title
Medical Board Discipline of Physicians for Spreading Medical Misinformation
Article Publication Date
12-Nov-2024
More than 5 million Americans would be eligible for psychedelic therapy, study finds
As the FDA reviews psilocybin-assisted therapy, Emory’s real-world analysis depicts the public health demand and economic impact based on medical eligibility
Emory Health Sciences
image:
Fayzan Rab, MD candidate, psychedelic researcher, and lead author of the study
Acupuncture. Ketamine infusions. “Electroshock” or electroconvulsive therapy. The existing treatment options for those diagnosed with Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD), may sometimes feel daunting or expensive alternatives to medication. However, a groundbreaking study from Emory University demonstrates how psilocybin-assisted therapy could impact more than 5 million people in the U.S. pending approval from the FDA.
The findings highlight both the national need for therapies featuring psilocybin, the active ingredient in hallucinogenic mushrooms, as well as the considerations that elected officials, insurance companies, and public health agencies would need to be aware of to successfully roll-out access to psilocybin-assisted therapy (PSIL-AT).
In the study, researchers used national data from the existing pool of people being treated for MDD and TRD, and applied exclusionary criteria based on comorbidities, such as mania, heart failure, and diabetes, to rule out those who would be medically ineligible for the therapy. These findings indicate that anywhere from 56 to 62% of the individuals being treated for MDD and TRD— roughly 5.1 to 5.6 million people—would be eligible for PSIL-AT and could benefit from it.
“This information is significant because much of the current focus on psychedelic therapies is about its efficacy within clinical trials, and very few people are studying what would be the broader implications of implementing these novel therapeutics,” says Fayzan Rab, lead author of the study and M.D. candidate at Emory University’s School of Medicine. “Our study is one of the first to look at the bigger public health and economic consequences of a world where psilocybin therapy is made more available to Americans.”
According to Rab, psilocybin-assisted treatment currently has a breakthrough designation with the FDA, meaning that it will expedite a review of the Phase III clinical trial results because of its potential as a therapeutic for depression.
“What is really timely about this research is that it provides a data-driven number that is interpretable to the FDA,” says Rab. “This is how many Americans we think are at stake. I think that will be a meaningful estimate for the FDA to weigh when they consider whether to approve psilocybin for therapeutic use.”
If approved, private and public insurers such as the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services will shape both the demand and the availability of psychedelic therapy. According to the study, almost 20% of the 85 million Medicaid beneficiaries—or 17 million people – are likely to have clinical depression. Therefore, the conditions under which Medicaid might or might not reimburse for psilocybin-assisted therapy will determine the demand.
A psycho-spiritual model to bring patients to a state of spiritual and mental wellness
An additional prominent attribution to the study is that it is supported by Emory University’s Center for Psychedelics and Spirituality(ECPS), which integrates clinical and research-backed expertise in psychiatry and spiritual health to better understand the therapeutic value of psychedelic medicines.
George Grant, MDiv, PhD, and co-director of the ECPS, emphasizes that the public health forecast in Rab’s study provides policymakers with an idea of the economic impact, as well as if the treatment will meet the needs of the underserved.
“Coming to the aid of people who are suffering is very important, and psilocybin-assisted therapy could help people arrive to a place of satisfaction within themselves so that their lives achieve optimal meaning and purpose,” says Grant, also the executive director for Spiritual Health at the Woodruff Health Sciences Center. Regarding the economic impact on the healthcare system, Grant adds, “Psychedelic medicines have promise because the intervention is so fast acting, whereas right now, insurance providers and payers often need to fund the use of antidepressants throughout their lives.”
Grant is referring to past clinical trials studying the efficacy of psilocybin, which indicate that just one singular 25 mg dose of psilocybin is often enough to reduce symptoms of depression—potentially decreasing the financial burden on insurance payers currently funding other interventions.
“I am glad to be supported by the Center for Psychedelics and Spirituality, which is an academic environment, providing an objective third-party perspective to policymakers, the FDA, and public health agencies,” says Rab, emphasizing that the study was not done in conjunction with any pharmaceutical agencies. “I am really hopeful that continued research in the area of psychedelic medicine and therapeutics could benefit the millions of Americans that might qualify for it.”
An estimate of the number of people with clinical depression eligible for psilocybin-assisted therapy in the United States
More green space linked to fewer preventable deaths in most deprived areas of UK
Provision lowest in most deprived neighbourhoods in 3 of the 4 UK nations.
Green space investment might be key preventive public health strategy, say researchers
BMJ Group
The provision of just 1% more green space in the most deprived urban neighbourhoods in 3 out of the 4 UK nations may be linked to around 40% fewer preventable deaths in these areas, finds research published online in the Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health.
Green space is unequally distributed in England, Scotland, and Northern Ireland, with the lowest amounts in the most deprived areas, the findings show, prompting the researchers to suggest that green space investment might be an important public health strategy for tackling health inequalities.
Spending time in green space, such as grassland, woodland, and parks, is not only associated with lower rates of death and ill health, and improved wellbeing, but also with environmental benefits, note the researchers.
In Europe, access to green space tends to be poorer in areas of deprivation. But data on the distribution of these spaces in disadvantaged urban neighbourhoods across the UK isn’t known, they add.
The researchers therefore wanted to investigate inequalities in the distribution of green space in both urban and rural areas (for comparison); and the association between its availability and numbers of preventable deaths in urban neighbourhoods in all 4 UK nations, stratified by level of deprivation.
They drew on local authority data, national statistics, the Index of Multiple Deprivation, and national land survey data, to calculate: the percentage of green space in urban and rural areas; population size and density; deprivation levels; and deaths from preventable causes—those that could be avoided through effective public health and primary prevention interventions.
They included 6791 defined geographical areas in England; 410 in Wales; 1279 in Scotland; and 890 in Northern Ireland.
The average percentage of green space was highest in Wales (45%), followed by Northern Ireland (24%), England (21%), and Scotland (16%). In all 4 countries, the average percentage of total green space in urban areas was significantly lower than that of rural areas.
Of the 4 nations, only in Wales was green space distributed equitably across neighbourhoods with differing levels of deprivation in both urban and rural areas.
In the other 3, the amount of green space was significantly associated with the number of preventable deaths among the most deprived urban areas.
In England, every 1% increase in green space in a defined geographical area was associated with 37% fewer annual preventable deaths.
In Scotland and Northern Ireland, a 1% increase in green space in a defined geographical area was associated with 37% and 41% fewer preventable deaths, respectively, over a period of 5 years.
“With the known health benefits of green space, this discrepancy may help to explain the wide health inequalities in urban areas in which the poorest and most vulnerable are most impacted,” suggest the researchers.
This is an observational study, precluding firm conclusions to be drawn about causal factors, and the researchers point to various limitations to their findings. These include assumed social and financial homogeneity of the geographical areas studied and the use of ‘land cover’ rather than ‘land use’ data.
“The unequal distribution of [green space] in urban areas demonstrates the need to target interventions at more deprived urban areas. Studies have shown that [green space] brings about greater benefit to those of lower socioeconomic position than those who belong to the more privileged groups, particularly in mental health and social integration,” they add.
“Although the study results show the association between lower number of preventable deaths and higher percentage of [green space] area, investment should not solely focus on increasing the existence of [green space] but also on [its] accessibility and quality,” they caution.
Inequality in green space distribution and its association with preventable deaths across urban neighbourhoods in the UK, stratified by Index of Multiple Deprivation
Article Publication Date
12-Nov-2024
A formula for life? New model calculates chances of intelligent beings in our Universe and beyond
How the same region of the Universe would look in terms of the amount of stars for different values of the dark energy density. Clockwise, from top left, no dark energy, same dark energy density as in our Universe, 30 and 10 times the dark energy density in our Universe. The images are generated from a suite of cosmological simulations.
The chances of intelligent life emerging in our Universe – and in any hypothetical ones beyond it – can be estimated by a new theoretical model which has echoes of the famous Drake Equation.
This was the formula that American astronomer Dr Frank Drake came up with in the 1960s to calculate the number of detectable extraterrestrial civilisations in our Milky Way galaxy.
More than 60 years on, astrophysicists led by Durham University have produced a different model which instead focuses on the conditions created by the acceleration of the Universe's expansion and the amount of stars formed.
It is thought this expansion is being driven by a mysterious force called dark energy that makes up more than two thirds of the Universe.
What is the calculation?
Since stars are a precondition for the emergence of life as we know it, the model could therefore be used to estimate the probability of generating intelligent life in our Universe, and in a multiverse scenario of hypothetical different universes.
The new research does not attempt to calculate the absolute number of observers (i.e. intelligent life) in the universe but instead considers the relative probability of a randomly chosen observer inhabiting a universe with particular properties.
It concludes that a typical observer would expect to experience a substantially larger density of dark energy than is seen in our own Universe – suggesting the ingredients it possesses make it a rare and unusual case in the multiverse.
The approach presented in the paper involves calculating the fraction of ordinary matter converted into stars over the entire history of the Universe, for different dark energy densities.
The model predicts this fraction would be approximately 27 per cent in a universe that is most efficient at forming stars, compared to 23 per cent in our own Universe.
This means we don't live in the hypothetical universe with the highest odds of forming intelligent life forms. Or in other words, the value of dark energy density we observe in our Universe is not the one that would maximise the chances of life, according to the model.
Dark energy's impact on our existence
Lead researcher Dr Daniele Sorini, of Durham University's Institute for Computational Cosmology, said: "Understanding dark energy and the impact on our Universe is one of the biggest challenges in cosmology and fundamental physics.
"The parameters that govern our Universe, including the density of dark energy, could explain our own existence.
"Surprisingly, though, we found that even a significantly higher dark energy density would still be compatible with life, suggesting we may not live in the most likely of universes."
The new model could allow scientists to understand the effects of differing densities of dark energy on the formation of structures in the Universe and the conditions for life to develop in the cosmos.
Dark energy makes the Universe expand faster, balancing gravity's pull and creating a universe where both expansion and structure formation are possible.
However, for life to develop, there would need to be regions where matter can clump together to form stars and planets, and it would need to remain stable for billions of years to allow life to evolve.
Crucially, the research suggests that the astrophysics of star formation and the evolution of the large-scale structure of the Universe combine in a subtle way to determine the optimal value of the dark energy density needed for the generation of intelligent life.
Professor Lucas Lombriser, Université de Genève and co-author of the study, added: "It will be exciting to employ the model to explore the emergence of life across different universes and see whether some fundamental questions we ask ourselves about our own Universe must be reinterpreted."
Drake Equation explained
Dr Drake's equation was more of a guide for scientists on how to go about searching for life, rather than an estimating tool or serious attempt to determine an accurate result.
Its parameters included the rate of yearly star formation in the Milky Way, the fraction of stars with planets orbiting them and the number of worlds that could potentially support life.
By comparison, the new model connects the rate of yearly star formation in the Universe with its fundamental ingredients, such as the aforementioned dark energy density.
The study, which was funded by the European Research Council and also involved scientists at the University of Edinburgh and the Université de Genève, has been published today in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society.
This Hubble Space Telescope image captures a triple-star system, which can host potentially-habitable planets. Our nearest stellar neighbour, the Alpha Centauri system, includes three stars.
Credit
NASA, ESA, G. Duchene (Universite de Grenoble I); Image Processing: Gladys Kober (NASA/Catholic University of America)
Caption: How the same region of the Universe would look in terms of the amount of stars for different values of the dark energy density. Clockwise, from top left, no dark energy, same dark energy density as in our Universe, 30 and 10 times the dark energy density in our Universe. The images are generated from a suite of cosmological simulations.
Credit: Oscar Veenema
Note: The simulations were run on the Cosma@DiRAC supercomputer in Durham as part of the EAGLE project (J. Schaye et al., 2015, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical society, Vol. 446, p. 521), and were first presented by L. A. Barnes et al. (2018) in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Vol. 477, p. 3727.
Caption: This Hubble Space Telescope image captures a triple-star system, which can host potentially-habitable planets. Our nearest stellar neighbour, the Alpha Centauri system, includes three stars.
Credit: NASA, ESA, G. Duchene (Universite de Grenoble I); Image Processing: Gladys Kober (NASA/Catholic University of America)
Caption: The Drake Equation, a mathematical formula for the probability of finding life or advanced civilisations in the Universe, as revised by two University of Rochester researchers in 2016.
R* = the rate of yearly star formation in the Galaxy
fp= the fraction of stars with planets orbiting them
fg= the fraction of stars that could support habitable planets
ne = the number of planets that can potentially support life (per star with planets)
fl = the fraction of planets that actually develop life at some point
fc= the fraction of civilisations that emit detectable signs of their presence
Notes for editors
About the Royal Astronomical Society
The Royal Astronomical Society (RAS), founded in 1820, encourages and promotes the study of astronomy, solar-system science, geophysics and closely related branches of science.
The RAS organises scientific meetings, publishes international research and review journals, recognises outstanding achievements by the award of medals and prizes, maintains an extensive library, supports education through grants and outreach activities and represents UK astronomy nationally and internationally. Its more than 4,000 members (Fellows), a third based overseas, include scientific researchers in universities, observatories and laboratories as well as historians of astronomy and others.
The RAS accepts papers for its journals based on the principle of peer review, in which fellow experts on the editorial boards accept the paper as worth considering. The Society issues press releases based on a similar principle, but the organisations and scientists concerned have overall responsibility for their content.
Durham University is a globally outstanding centre of teaching and research based in historic Durham City in the UK. We are a collegiate university committed to inspiring our people to do outstanding things at Durham and in the world.
We conduct research that improves lives globally and we are ranked as a world top 100 university with an international reputation in research and education (QS World University Rankings 2024).
We are a member of the Russell Group of leading research-intensive UK universities and we are consistently ranked as a top 10 university in national league tables (Times and Sunday Times Good University Guide, Guardian University Guide and The Complete University Guide).
The impact of the cosmological constant on past and future star formation
Article Publication Date
13-Nov-2024
WINDFALL PROFITS!
Fossil fuel CO2 emissions increase again in 2024
University of Exeter
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have reached a record high in 2024, according to new research by the Global Carbon Project science team.
The 2024 Global Carbon Budget projects fossil carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions of 37.4 billion tonnes, up 0.8% from 2023.
Despite the urgent need to cut emissions to slow climate change, the researchers say there is still “no sign” that the world has reached a peak in fossil CO2 emissions.
With projected emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) of 4.2 billion tonnes, total CO2 emissions are projected to be 41.6 billion tonnes in 2024, up from 40.6 billion tonnes last year.
Over the last 10 years, fossil CO2 emissions have risen while land-use change CO2 emissions have declined on average – leaving overall emissions roughly level over that period.
This year, both fossil and land-use change CO2 emissions are set to rise, with drought conditions exacerbating emissions from deforestation and forest degradation fires during the El Niño climate event of 2023-2024.
With over 40 billion tonnes released each year at present, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere continues to rise – driving increasingly dangerous global warming.
The research team included the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia (UEA), CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich, Alfred-Wegener-Institut and 80 other institutions around the world.
“The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly dramatic, yet we still see no sign that burning of fossil fuels has peaked,” said Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute, who led the study.
“Time is running out to meet the Paris Agreement goals – and world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions to give us a chance of staying well below 2°C warming above pre-industrial levels.”
Professor Corinne Le Quéré, Royal Society Research Professor at UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences, said: “Despite another rise in global emissions this year, the latest data shows evidence of widespread climate action, with the growing penetration of renewables and electric cars displacing fossil fuels, and decreasing deforestation emissions in the past decades confirmed for the first time.”
Dr Glen Peters, of the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Oslo, said: “There are many signs of positive progress at the country level, and a feeling that a peak in global fossil CO2 emissions is imminent, but the global peak remains elusive.
“Climate action is a collective problem, and while gradual emission reductions are occurring in some countries, increases continue in others.
“Progress in all countries needs to accelerate fast enough to put global emissions on a downward trajectory towards net zero.”
Professor Friedlingstein added: “Until we reach net zero CO2 emissions globally, world temperatures will continue to rise and cause increasingly severe impacts.”
Other key findings from the 2024 Global Carbon Budget include:
Globally, emissions from different fossil fuels in 2024 are projected to increase: coal (0.2%), oil (0.9%), gas (2.4%). These contribute 41%, 32% and 21% of global fossil CO2 emissions respectively. Given the uncertainty in the projections, it remains possible that coal emissions could decline in 2024.
China’s emissions (32% of the global total) are projected to marginally increase by 0.2%, although the projected range includes a possible decrease in emissions.
US emissions (13% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 0.6%.
India’s emissions (8% of the global total) are projected to increase by 4.6%.
European Union emissions (7% of the global total) are projected to decrease by 3.8%.
Emissions in the rest of the world (38% of the global total) are projected to increase by 1.1%.
International aviation and shipping (3% of the global total, and counted separately from national/regional totals) are projected to increase by 7.8% in 2024, but remain below their 2019 pre-pandemic level by 3.5%.
Globally, emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) have decreased by 20% in the past decade, but are set to rise in 2024.
Permanent CO2 removal through reforestation and afforestation (new forests) is offsetting about half of the permanent deforestation emissions.
Current levels of technology-based Carbon Dioxide Removal (excluding nature-based means such as reforestation) only account for about one-millionth of the CO2 emitted from fossil fuels.
Atmospheric CO2 levels are set to reach 422.5 parts per million in 2024, 2.8 parts per million above 2023, and 52% above pre-industrial levels.
The effects of the temporary El Niño climate event also led to a reduction in carbon absorption by ecosystems on land (known as the land CO2 “sink”) in 2023, which is projected to recover as El Niño ended by the second quarter of 2024.
Emissions from fires in 2024 have been above the average since the beginning of the satellite record in 2003, particularly due to the extreme 2023 wildfire season in Canada (which persisted in 2024) and intense drought in Brazil.
The land and ocean CO2 sinks combined continued to take up around half of the total CO2 emissions, despite being negatively impacted by climate change.
How long until we pass 1.5°C of global warming?
This study estimates the remaining “carbon budget” before the 1.5°C target is breached consistently over multiple years, not just for a single year. At the current rate of emissions, the Global Carbon Budget team estimates a 50% chance global warming will exceed 1.5°C consistently in about six years. This estimate is subject to large uncertainties, primarily due to the uncertainty of the additional warming coming from non-CO2 agents (e.g., CH4, N2O, aerosols). However, it’s clear that the remaining carbon budget – and therefore the time left to meet the 1.5°C target and avoid the worst impacts of climate change – has almost run out.
The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 120 scientists, provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, building on established methodologies in a fully transparent manner. The 2024 edition (the 19th annual report) will be published in the journal Earth System Science Data on November 13 as a pre-print, and later as a peer-reviewed paper.
The report will be published at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan. A UN press conference will be held from 10:30-11am Azerbaijan time on 13 November, in Press Conference 2 (Natavan), Area C, Blue Zone. The official UN launch event for the 2024 Global Carbon Budget will take place on 14 November, from 3-4.30pm Azerbaijan time in Side Event 5 in the Blue Zone.
