WWIII  ICBM

What we know about the 'experimental' ballistic missile Russia fired at Ukraine

Ukraine's air force said on Thursday that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), which are designed to deliver nuclear warheads, at targets in the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. But US officials said they believed the strike was carried out using an "experimental" medium-range ballistic missile. Here's what we know so far.


Issued on: 21/11/2024 - 
By: NEWS WIRES

In this photo provided by the Ukrainian Emergency Services on November 21, 2024, rescue workers put out a fire of a building which was heavily damaged by a Russian strike on Dnipro, Ukraine. © Ukrainian Emergency Service via AP

Russia on Thursday fired an innovative missile at Ukraine in a clear warning of its capabilities as tensions surge, officials from Western governments said, even as they pushed back against Ukrainian claims of an even more widescale action by Moscow.

Ukraine said on Thursday Russia had launched against its territory an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) designed to carry nuclear warheads.

But while warning that such a step would mark a major escalation, Ukraine's European allies did not confirm Kyiv's initial assessments that such a weapon had been fired.

A US official, who asked not to be named, said Russia's strike on Ukraine was not an ICBM, but an "experimental" medium-range ballistic missile.

In an address to the nation late Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin confirmed that Russia had used a new, experimental "hypersonic" medium range non-nuclear ballistic missile named "Oreshnik" ("Hazel") in the attack on Dnipro.

What was fired?

Analysts and now the United States have pushed back on the initial claims from Kyiv that Moscow had launched the nuclear-capable ICBM as part of a barrage towards the central city of Dnipro.

Read moreUS approval for Ukraine long-range missile strikes into Russia is a slim lifeline for Kyiv

Using such a missile at such short range would be a hugely profligate use of valuable resources. "My take is that one must be sceptical and cautious," wrote weapons expert Pavel Podvig, director of the Russian Nuclear Forces Project.

While not naming the missile used or giving technical specifications, the US official said Russia "likely possesses only a handful of these experimental missiles."

"Ukraine has withstood countless attacks from Russia, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads than this weapon," the official said.

In London, a spokesman for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters Russia's strike on Ukraine was a "ballistic missile" with "a range of several thousand kilometres", the first time Moscow had used such a weapon in the war.

What is the context?

Tension has been building between Moscow and Kyiv's allies in the West since Ukrainian forces struck Russian territory with Western-supplied long-range weapons on Tuesday after getting the green light from Washington.

US President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the go-ahead to fire the missiles into Russian territory for the first time while Washington will soon provide Ukraine with antipersonnel land mines to shore up its defences against Russian forces.

Biden is moving to boost Ukraine's war effort in the final two months of his administration, before Donald Trump, who has repeatedly promised to end the war quickly, takes power in January.

"The United States will continue to surge security assistance to Ukraine to strengthen capabilities, including air defence, and put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield," the official said.

In London, the British government spokesman said: "It is another example of reckless behaviour from Russia, which only serves to strengthen our resolve in terms of standing by Ukraine for as long as it takes."
What message is Moscow seeking to send?

Despite the initial confusion on the nature of the missile fired, it is clear that the strike on Dnipro was unusual and aimed at sparking the maximum attention from Kyiv and its allies.

"We are really on something unprecedented, and it is much more a political act than a military act. The cost-effectiveness ratio of the attack is zero," says Heloise Fayet, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI).

"This change of scale is significant," she said, adding this was "the first use by the Russians on the battlefield of a missile with a range greater than 2,000 kilometres."

But the use of this missile "will not change the situation significantly on the operational level. They obviously have very few and they are expensive."

Local authorities said an infrastructure facility was hit in Dnipro and two civilians were wounded.

For Nick Brown, of British defence analysis organisation Janes, "this is really about sending an escalatory message or warning, an expensive and potentially dangerous way for Russia to rattle its sabre."

According to the US official: "Russia may be seeking to use this capability to try to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters... but it will not be a game changer in this conflict," the US official said.

(AFP)

Putin says Moscow 'has right' to hit states whose weapons Ukraine uses to strike Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in a televised message Thursday that Moscow has the right to strike the military targets of countries who have supplied weapons to Ukraine to hit Russia. Putin's statements came after Russia launched a new intermediate-range missile at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro in response to Kyiv's long-range missile attacks earlier this week.


Issued on: 21/11/2024 
By: FRANCE 24
Video by:  Vedika BAHL

01:59

Russian President Vladimir Putin records a televised address in Moscow, Russia on November 21, 2024. © Vyacheslav Prokofyev, AP


Russian President Vladimir Putin announced Thursday that Moscow has tested a new intermediate-range missile in a strike on Ukraine, and he warned that it could use the weapon against countries that have allowed Kyiv to use their missiles to strike Russia.

The Russian strike on the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro on Thursday came in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian soil this week that used longer-range US and British missiles, Putin said during a nationwide TV address.

Following Putin's nationwide address, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for a strong response from world leaders to Russia's use of a new generation hypersonic missile, saying it was a major step up in the "scale and brutality" of the war.

"The world must react. Right now there is no strong reaction from the world," Zelensky said in a statement published on Telegram, adding: "This is an obvious and serious increase in the scale and brutality of this war."


Putin declared that Russia would issue advance warnings if it launches more strikes with such missile against Ukraine to allow civilians to evacuate to safety. And he warned that US air defense systems wouldn’t be capable of intercepting Russian missiles.

Putin said the attack on Dnipro struck a missile factory a new missile called "Oreshnik," a Russian word meaning "hazel."

"We believe that we have the right to use our weapons against military facilities of the countries that allow to use their weapons against our facilities," he said. "And in case of escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond resolutely in a mirror way."

No, these videos don't show Putin's reaction to Biden giving Ukraine long-range missiles

05:01





Putin's announcement came hours after Ukraine claimed that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile overnight at the central Ukrainian city of Dnipro. But American officials said an initial US assessment indicated the strike was carried out with an intermediate-range ballistic missile.

Two people were wounded in the attack, and an industrial facility and a rehabilitation center for people with disabilities were damaged, according to local officials.

The attack comes during a week of escalating tensions, as the US eased restrictions on Ukraine's use of American-made longer-range missiles inside Russia and Putin lowered the threshold for launching nuclear weapons.

The Ukrainian air force said in a statement that the Dnipro attack was launched from Russia’s Astrakhan region, on the Caspian Sea.

"Today, our crazy neighbour once again showed what he really is," Zelensky said hours before Putin's address. "And how afraid he is."

Earlier this week, the Biden administration authorised Ukraine to use US-supplied, longer-range missiles to strike deeper inside Russia – a move that drew an angry response from Moscow.

Days later, Ukraine fired several of the missiles into Russia, according to the Kremlin. The same day, Putin signed a new doctrine that allows for a potential nuclear response even to a conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power.

Read moreUS approval for Ukraine long-range missile strikes into Russia is a slim lifeline for Kyiv

The doctrine is formulated broadly to avoid a firm commitment to use nuclear weapons. In response, Western countries, including the US, said Russia has used irresponsible nuclear rhetoric and behavior throughout the war to intimidate Ukraine and other nations.

They have also expressed dismay at the deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to Russia to fight against Ukraine.

Also Thursday, Russia also struck Zelensky’s home city of Kryvyi Rih, wounding 26 people, said the head of regional administration, Serhii Lysak. The missile strike caused damage to an administrative building, at least five multistory residential buildings, and civilian vehicles.

The Russian Defense Ministry, meanwhile, said in a statement that its air defense systems shot down two British-made Storm Shadow missiles, six HIMARS rockets, and 67 drones.

The statement didn’t say when or where the Storm Shadows were shot down or what they were targeting. Russia earlier reported downing some of the missiles over the illegally annexed Crimean Peninsula.

Ukraine war escalates as NATO braces for Trump-brokered deal: on Putin's terms?

43:55

More than 1,000 days into war, Russia has the upper hand, with its larger army advancing in Donetsk and Ukrainian civilians suffering from relentless drone and missile strikes.

Analysts and observers say that the loosening of restrictions on Ukraine's use of Western missiles is unlikely to change the the course of the war, but it puts the Russian army in a more vulnerable position and could complicate the logistics that are crucial in warfare.

Putin has also warned that the move would mean that Russia and NATO are at war.

"It is an important move and it pulls against, undermines the narrative that Putin had been trying to establish that it was fine for Russia to rain down Iranian drones and North Korean missiles on Ukraine but a reckless escalation for Ukraine to use Western-supplied weapons at legitimate targets in Russia," said Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser who now sits in the House of Lords.

(FRANCE 24 with AFP and AP)

Russia’s missile ‘warning’ to Ukraine and West: what we know



By AFP
November 21, 2024

The nature of the the missile remains unclear - Copyright COME BACK ALIVE/AFP -
Didier LAURAS

Russia on Thursday fired an experimental missile at Ukraine in a clear warning of its capabilities, officials from Western governments said, even as they pushed back against Ukrainian claims of a more provocative action by Moscow.

Ukraine initially accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in combat for the first time in history.

But a US official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Russia had not fired an ICBM but rather an “experimental” medium-range ballistic missile.

In an address late Thursday, President Vladimir Putin confirmed Russia had used a new, experimental “hypersonic” medium-range ballistic missile named “Oreshnik” (“Hazel”) in an attack on Dnipro.

In what analysts said was intended as a warning to the countries arming Ukraine, the Russian leader hinted the missile was capable of unleashing a nuclear payload.



– What was fired?



Analysts and the United States pushed back against Kyiv’s initial claims that Moscow had launched a nuclear-capable ICBM as part of a barrage towards the central city of Dnipro.

As their name suggests, intercontinental ballistic missiles are capable of striking one continent from another, with a range of at least 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles).

Intermediate-range missiles by contrast typically have a reach of between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometres — still long enough to make good on Putin’s threat of striking the West.

In his speech, the Kremlin leader said Russia had tested one of its “newest intermediate-range missile systems in combat conditions. In this case, a ballistic missile with a non-nuclear hypersonic configuration.”

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said Moscow had informed Washington of the missile’s launch half an hour before it was fired through an automatic nuclear de-escalation hotline, in remarks cited in state media.

While not naming the missile used or giving technical specifications, the US official said Russia “likely possesses only a handful of these experimental missiles”.

“Ukraine has withstood countless attacks from Russia, including from missiles with significantly larger warheads than this weapon,” the official said.

In London, a spokesman for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters that Russia’s strike on Ukraine was a “ballistic missile” with “a range of several thousand kilometres”, the first time Moscow had used such a weapon in the war.



– What is the context?



Tension has been building between Moscow and Kyiv’s allies in the West since Ukrainian forces struck Russian territory with Western-supplied long-range weapons on Tuesday after getting the green light from Washington.

US President Joe Biden gave Ukraine the go-ahead to fire the missiles into Russian territory for the first time while Washington will soon provide Ukraine with antipersonnel land mines to shore up its defences against Russian forces.

On Tuesday, Putin signed a decree lowering the threshold for using nuclear weapons, a move Western powers condemned as “irresponsible”.

Biden is moving to boost Ukraine’s war effort in the final two months of his administration, before Donald Trump, who has repeatedly promised to end the war quickly, takes power in January.

“The United States will continue to surge security assistance to Ukraine to strengthen capabilities, including air defence, and put Ukraine in the best possible position on the battlefield,” the official said.

In London, the British government spokesman said of the Russian strike: “It is another example of reckless behaviour from Russia, which only serves to strengthen our resolve in terms of standing by Ukraine for as long as it takes.”

NATO spokesperson Farah Dakhlallah said Russia’s use of the missile would “neither change the course of the conflict nor deter” the US-led defence alliance from backing Kyiv.



– What message is Moscow seeking to send?



Despite the initial confusion about the nature of the missile fired, it is clear the strike on Dnipro was unusual and aimed at grabbing the attention of Kyiv and its allies.

“We are really on something unprecedented, and it is much more a political act than a military act. The cost-effectiveness ratio of the attack is zero,” said Heloise Fayet, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations.

“This change of scale is significant,” she said, adding this was “the first use by the Russians on the battlefield of a missile with a range greater than 2,000 kilometres”.

But she said the use of this missile would “not change the situation significantly on the operational level. They obviously have very few and they are expensive.”

Local authorities said an infrastructure facility was hit in Dnipro and two civilians were wounded.

For Nick Brown of British defence analysis organisation Janes, using the missile was “really about sending an escalatory message or warning, an expensive and potentially dangerous way for Russia to rattle its sabre.”

According to the US official: “Russia may be seeking to use this capability to try to intimidate Ukraine and its supporters… but it will not be a game changer in this conflict.”

Putin hints at strikes on West in ‘global’ Ukraine war

By AFP
November 21, 2024


The attack on Kyiv is the latest in an uptick in escalating strikes on Ukrainian cities, mainly in the south of the war-battered country - Copyright POOL/AFP NICOLAS TUCAT
Florent VERGNES

Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that the conflict in Ukraine had characteristics of a “global” war and did not rule out strikes on Western countries.

The Kremlin strongman spoke out after a day of frayed nerves, with Russia test-firing a new generation intermediate-range missile at Ukraine — which Putin hinted was capable of unleashing a nuclear payload.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky branded the strike a major ramping up of the “scale and brutality” of the war by a “crazy neighbour”, while Kyiv’s main backer the United States said that Russia was to blame for escalating the conflict “at every turn”.

Intermediate-range missiles typically have a reach of up to 5,500 kilometres (3,400 miles) — enough to make good on Putin’s threat of striking the West.

In a defiant address to the nation, Russia’s president railed at Ukraine’s allies granting permission for Kyiv to use Western-supplied weapons to strike targets on Russian territory, warning of retaliation.

In recent days Ukraine has fired US and UK-supplied missiles at Russian territory for the first time, escalating already sky-high tensions in the brutal nearly three-year-long conflict.

“We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against the military facilities of those countries that allow their weapons to be used against our facilities,” Putin said.

He said the US-sent Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and British Storm Shadow payloads were shot down by Moscow’s air defences, adding: “The goals that the enemy obviously set were not achieved”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov did however say Moscow informed Washington of the missile’s launch half an hour before it was fired through an automatic nuclear de-escalation hotline, in remarks cited in state media.

He earlier said Russia was doing everything to avoid an atomic conflict, having updated its nuclear doctrine this week.

White House spokeswoman Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters that Washington saw no need to modify the United States’ own nuclear posture in response.



– ‘Reckless behaviour’ –



Ukraine had earlier accused Russia of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) for the first time in history — a claim later downplayed by Washington.

The Ukrainian air force said Moscow had launched the missile as part of a barrage towards Dnipro, where local authorities said an infrastructure facility was hit and two civilians were wounded.

Putin said that Russia had carried out “testing in combat conditions of one of the newest Russian… missile systems” named “Oreshnik”.

Criticising the global response to the strike — “final proof that Russia definitely does not want peace” — Zelensky warned that other countries could become targets for Putin too.

“It is necessary to urge Russia to a true peace, which is possible only through force,” the Ukrainian leader said in his evening address.

“Otherwise, there will be relentless Russian strikes, threats and destabilisation, and not only against Ukraine.”

The attack on Dnipro comes just days after several foreign embassies shuttered temporarily in the Ukrainian capital, citing the threat of a large-scale strike.

“It is another example of reckless behaviour from Russia,” a spokesman for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer told reporters.

The spokesman for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, Stephane Dujarric, said the new missile’s deployment was “another concerning and worrying development,” warning the war was “going in the wrong direction”.

Yet a US official played down the threat, saying on condition of anonymity that Russia “likely possesses only a handful of these” experimental missiles.



– UK ‘directly involved’ –



The head of the Dnipropetrovsk region where the city of Dnipro is located said the Russian aerial bombardment damaged a rehabilitation centre and several homes, as well as an industrial enterprise.

“Two people were wounded — a 57-year-old man was treated on the scene and a 42-year-old woman was hospitalised,” said the official, Sergiy Lysak.

Russia and Ukraine have escalated their use of long-range missiles in recent days since Washington gave Kyiv permission to use its ATACMS against military targets inside Russia — a long-standing Ukrainian request.

British media meanwhile reported on Wednesday that Kyiv had launched UK-supplied Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russia after being given the green light from London.

With ranges of 300 and 250 kilometres respectively, both missile systems’ reach is far dwarfed by the experimental intermediate-range system fired by Russia.

Russia’s envoy to London on Thursday said that meant Britain was “now directly involved” in the Ukraine war, with Andrei Kelin telling Sky News “this firing cannot happen” without UK and NATO support.

But the White House’s Jean-Pierre countered that it was Russia who was behind the rising tensions, pointing to the reported deployment of thousands of North Korean troops to help Moscow fight off a Ukrainian offensive in Russia’s border Kursk region.

“The escalation at every turn is coming from Russia,” Jean-Pierre said, adding that the United States had warned Moscow against involving “another country in another part of the world” — referring to Pyongyang.



– Kyiv in retreat –



The defence ministry in Moscow said Thursday its air-defence systems had downed two Storm Shadows, without saying whether they had come down on Russian territory or in occupied Ukraine.

The missile escalation is coming at a critical moment on the ground for Ukraine, as its defences buckle under Russian pressure across the sprawling front line.

Russia claimed deeper advances in the war-battered Donetsk region, announcing on Thursday that its forces had captured another village close to Kurakhove, closing in on the town after months of steady advances.

Moscow’s defence ministry said Russian forces had taken the small village of Dalne, five kilometres (three miles) south of Kurakhove.

Lysak, the governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, said that 26 people had been wounded in another strike on the town of Kryvyi Rig, where Zelensky was born.

Op-Ed: Escalation or desperation? Russia fires ballistic missile at Ukraine


By  Paul Wallis
DIGITAL JOURNAL
November 22, 2024

Ukraine has long demanded authorization to use the US-made ATACMS missile against targets inside Russia - Copyright DoD/AFP John Hamilton

According to Ukraine, Russia fired the first ICBM ever used in warfare at the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Two people were injured by the conventional warhead.

The missile was part of a barrage of various types of missiles including hypersonic missiles. Other sources say it was an intermediate-range ballistic missile, which is a sort of scaled-down ICBM with a shorter range.

The attack comes after the US approved the use of long-range ATACMS missiles by Ukraine for strikes inside Russia.

The attack also came with a lot of rhetoric attached. Russia has now “updated” its nuclear doctrine to state that any non-nuclear power acting in partnership with a nuclear power is to be considered a “joint attack”.

This is more or less standard Russian dogma, emphasizing its nuclear capabilities. There is no comparison between an ATACMS missile and any sort of nuclear weapon.

Russia’s military situation in Ukraine is now such a total failure that rhetoric makes far more headlines than actual military achievements. Most of their “advances” in Donetsk are minuscule, taking back what they claim to be their own territory.

In an additional escalation, this time a real one, North Korean troops and weapons are said to be operating in Russia. Various sources state these troops are operating in the Kursk region and taking significant casualties. They don’t seem to be particularly combat-effective.

Despite claims by the incoming Trump administration, this situation is likely to be difficult to defuse. Russia is trying to save face. Its military has taken a severe beating for nearly three years.

Ukraine won’t back down. Ukraine has nothing to gain from a pseudo-peace which may simply turn into another attack after the Russian military has regrown itself. A lasting peace is beyond US capabilities to deliver.

The big loser in a failed peace deal would be the US. America would simply look weak and naïve, and in many ways simply stupid. It would also look as though the US was trying to save Russia, which is the exact opposite of saving face for Putin.

The highly skeptical rest of the world wouldn’t be impressed. It’s the wrong message to send to this planet’s other 8 billion people. Trump has a unique ability to damage America’s reputation and credibility in a few sentences. He spent most of his first term annoying America’s allies making baseless statements about them.

He’s not seen as a “strong leader” outside the US. He’s seen as a highly personally compromised figurehead at best and chronically incompetent on average. He certainly can’t even pretend to lead the rest of the world social media propaganda notwithstanding.

That’s a big shift in the wrong direction. America was in fact a leader of the free world. Under Trump, it’s likely to be purely antagonistic and entirely insular, with no trust.

Add to this self-inflicted mess the various other messages about tariffs, deportations, and democracy in general, and the US could lose just about all of the goodwill of the last century in a month or so.

The winner would be China. In comparison to a tariff-addled, backward-looking, fact-ignoring America and a crippled Russia, China can only look good.

Nothing can save Russia from the consequences of this idiotic self-inflicted war. Europe is rearming. China can pull the plug whenever it wants. It’s game over in so many ways.

America can only be “great” by enforcing a just and permanent peace.

Let’s see who the vertebrates are in this scenario.

___________________________________________________

Disclaimer

The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.

Inside the South Korean weapons factory that could supply Kyiv

By AFP
November 21, 2024

South Korean engineers work on a 120mm self-propelled mortar at the Hanwha Aerospace factory in Changwon - Copyright AFP JUNG YEON-JE
Kang Jin-kyu

At the outskirts of a South Korean industrial city, workers at a sprawling weapons factory were conducting final-stage testing for a newly built surface-to-air defence system that could, eventually, head to Ukraine.

Longstanding domestic policy bars Seoul from sending weapons into active conflict zones, but ever since its spy agency accused the nuclear-armed North last month of sending thousands of soldiers to help Moscow fight Kyiv, South Korea has warned it might change course.

If so, likely top of the list for Ukraine would be the “Cheongung” — or Sky Arrow — air defence system, a domestically-produced Iron Dome-style interception shield that AFP saw Thursday during an exclusive tour of the Hanwha Aerospace factory in the southern city of Changwon.

As the melody of Beethoven’s Fur Elise played on repeat over the in-house speaker, veteran welders worked on huge cylinders that will become part of the inceptor system, which is defensive in nature — although Hanwha also produces an attack-focused variant.

“The Cheongung system can be thought of as similar to the US Patriot missile system,” said senior manager Jung Sung-young at Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea’s largest defence contractor.

Ukraine is reliant on Western air defence systems, particularly Patriots, to protect itself from Russian missile barrages — and has been calling for more deliveries.

Washington said in June it would prioritise deliveries to Kyiv, ahead of other countries that have placed orders.

But were South Korea, which remains technically at war with the nuclear-armed North and has maintained production of weaponry long ignored by Western arms industries, to get involved, it could potentially make a huge difference, experts say.

“As a divided nation, we have systematically established and implemented standards at the national level, from the development of these weapon systems to quality control,” said Jung.

“The quality, capability and manufacturing supply chain of our products is sufficiently competitive compared to those of other countries,” he added.

Whether — or how — South Korea decides to help Ukraine directly depends on “the level of North Korean involvement”, President Yoon Suk Yeol said earlier this month, adding Seoul was “not ruling out the possibility of providing weapons.”

If South Korea were to supply arms, the initial batch would be defensive in nature, Yoon said.



– Combat ready –



To fend off the steady barrage of missiles that have targeted Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and civilian areas, Kyiv urgently needs more air defences, Han Kwon-hee of the Korea Association of Defence Industry told AFP.

“Counteroffensives require stability in the rear zones, which is why Kyiv has also conducted drone attacks within Russia, including Moscow,” Han explained.

“They will help Ukraine hold off Russia’s offensives by intercepting drones and missiles flying deep into their territory,” he said — a huge boost for Kyiv, alongside the recent US move to let it use long-range American missiles against targets inside Russia.

The South has remained combat-ready since its 1950-53 war with the North ended in a truce, and while Hanwha Aerospace, South Korea’s largest defence contractor, was once seen by analysts as retrograde for its focus on land weapons, it is now in high demand.

AFP saw a wide range of weaponry moving along assembly lines at the company’s sprawling Changwon factory, from infantry armoured vehicles to surface-to-air missile systems designed to intercept incoming missiles.

The heightened geopolitical tensions in Europe have heavily benefited the South Korean company, which saw its on-year operating profit soar over 450 percent in the latest quarter to $343.3 million.

It has signed major arms deals with countries such as Poland and Romania, including the export of K9 Howitzers and Chunmoo missile systems.



– Weapons exports –



Seoul has long harboured ambitions to join the ranks of the world’s top arms exporters — aiming to be the fourth-largest, behind the US, Russia and France — something that is now possible, industry research indicates.

It has already sold 155mm artillery shells to Washington — but with a “final user” agreement in place meaning the United States would be the military that uses the munitions.

Experts have said this allows the United States to then provide their own shells to Kyiv.

Hanwha’s other weapons offer that could shift the balance of war in Ukraine is its Chunmoo guided missile system, experts said.

“With a maximum range of 290 km (180 miles), Chunmoo can strike targets in Pyongyang if launched from the border area in the South,” said Choi Gi-il, professor of military studies at Sangji University.

“What Ukraine urgently needs to turn the war in its favour are offensive weapons like Chunmoo missiles and K9 howitzers, capable of inflicting significant damage on the enemy,” Choi added.

“If North Korea’s direct involvement in the war escalates, (Seoul) may consider sending lethal weapons, in addition to defensive ones.”

Nationalist raves galvanise traumatised Ukrainian youth


By AFP

November 21, 2024

The mix of party and military reflects the split reality of young Ukrainians - Copyright AFP Andrej ISAKOVIC
Barbara WOJAZER

At a rave in a former silk factory in Kyiv, Bogdana Lukyanchuk was out partying for the first time since her father was killed fighting Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

The party raised funds for the Third Assault Brigade, a controversial unit which has gained countrywide name recognition thanks to its military feats and marketing.

“I knew it was a charity event with people that I respected, so I could come and let my emotions run wild for just a day,” Lukyanchuk said, showing a photo of her dad with a broken heart emoji on her phone screensaver.

“There is still life in Ukraine. Life pulsates. Blood pulsates,” the 23-year-old said, shouting over the loud bass.

The Saturday night rave featured a combat drone simulator and merchandise from the Third Assault Brigade.

It was also attended by members of a linked nationalist youth group, Centuria.

The mix of party and military reflected the split reality of young Ukrainians, whose attempts to enjoy life are constantly marked by grief, air raid alerts and strikes.

It showed the efforts being made to galvanise young people exhausted by the war as the Russian invasion nears the three-year mark.



– ‘Gently involve young people’ –



Around 80 percent of Ukrainians have a close relative or friend who has been wounded by Russian forces, according to a survey from the Kyiv Institute of Sociology.

To process the violence against their country, some young Ukrainians find a sense of purpose and camaraderie in nationalist military organisations.

Lukyanchuk came to the rave with friends she met at workshops teaching civilians to handle rifles and use tourniquets, life-saving devices to staunch massive bleeding.

“There are conscious people here,” she said.

She worried that others were forgetting the war.

The patriotic fervour of the beginning of the war has subsided, leaving brigades short of funding and recruits.

In that struggle, the Third Assault Brigade, created by far-right politician Andriy Biletsky, has distinguished itself with its Instagrammable branding.

A neon orange logo in support of the brigade lit up the drone simulation room, which looked like a gamer’s den filled with teenagers slouched on a couch.

Some watched the drone flight simulator on a large computer screen, over which hung the white neon logo of Centuria.

Centuria says it “despises the modern cult of weakness” and aims to raise “strong and proud Ukrainians”.

The group boasts over 16,500 followers on Instagram, where it posts about a variety of events ranging from lectures to knife fights.

The blend of genres serves a purpose, said rave organiser Viktor Mazur.

“We gently involve young people. We don’t do it harshly with heavy propaganda but rather through entertainment, and that way we develop their loyalty,” the 29-year-old said.

Sofia Tabatska was surprised how quickly she worked out how to fly the drone under the guidance of an instructor.

“It’s like playing a computer game, like Grand Theft Auto,” said the 24-year-old.

“It would be nice if I could use it in some way in the future,” Tabatska said.

But she ruled out joining the army any time soon, describing herself as a pacifist.



– ‘Children of the war’ –



Marianna Tkalych, a psychologist, said some militarisation of Ukrainian society was inevitable following the Russian invasion.

But she believes the effect may not be lasting and the real test will come when the war ends and Ukraine’s political process, frozen by martial law, resumes.

The popularity of patriotic and militaristic organisations after the war, she said, will hinge on Ukraine’s capacity to deal with a traumatised generation.

“There will be some young people who have not found their purpose in any other sphere and who haven’t experienced normal life,” said Tkalych, who also heads the research platform Rating Lab.

“The generation growing up right now are children of the war.”

Fourteen-year-old Yury was just a toddler when Russian-backed forces launched a first armed aggression in eastern Ukraine in 2014.

He can hardly remember a life outside the conflict that escalated in 2022.

The teenager says he plans to enlist if the war is still ongoing when he turns 18.

He is already preparing with Centuria.

“I found myself there,” he said, mentioning classes on using assault rifles and fighting.

He said he thought his family would support his plans.

“My mum knows. I hope it will be okay.”

Civil war economy hits Myanmar garment workers


By AFP
November 20, 2024

A civil war is devastating Myanmar, but thousands of garment workers in the country still churn out clothing for brands like Adidas and H&M - Copyright AFP/File Ye Aung THU

As civil war pounds Myanmar’s economy and drives up prices, garment worker Wai Wai often starts her shift making clothes for international brands on an empty stomach.

The orders she and thousands of others churn out for big names including Adidas, H&M and others bring in billions of dollars in export earnings for Myanmar.

It is a rare bright spot in an economy crippled by the military’s 2021 coup and subsequent slide into civil war.

But for 12 hours of sewing clothes for export to China and Europe in a bleak industrial suburb of Yangon, Wai Wai earns just over $3 a day, which has to cover rent, food and clothes.

It must also stretch to supporting her parents in Rakhine state at the other end of the country, where conflict between the military and ethnic rebels has wrecked the economy and driven food prices up.

With times so hard, Wai Wai “decided to mostly skip breakfast” to save extra money, she told AFP, asking to use a pseudonym.

“Sometimes we just have leftover rice from the night before and save money, because if we use money for breakfast, there will be less money to transfer to our family.”

In a nearby factory, Thin Thin Khine and her two sisters work 12 hours a day sewing uniforms for a Myanmar company and earn a monthly salary of around 350,000 Myanmar kyat.

That’s about $165 according to the official exchange rate set by the junta of just over 2,000 kyat to the dollar.

On the open market, a greenback can fetch around 4,500 kyat.

“All my sisters are working, but there is no extra money at all,” she said.

“In the past, we could buy two or three new items of clothing every month, but now we can’t afford to buy new clothes, cosmetics or things for our personal care.”



– Lights out –



Since the coup, Zara owner Inditex, Marks and Spencer and others have left Myanmar, citing the difficulties of operating amid the turmoil.

Others such as Adidas, H&M and Danish company Bestseller have stayed, for now.

Adidas told AFP it worked closely with its suppliers in Myanmar to safeguard workers’ rights, while H&M said it was gradually phasing out its operations in the country.

Estimates of the apparel industry’s export earnings vary.

Myanmar’s commerce ministry said exports were worth more than $3 billion in the past financial year.

But the European Chamber of Commerce in Myanmar said export earnings were higher, surging from $5.7 billion in 2019 to $7.6 billion in 2022 — with more than half of exports going to the bloc.

The European body said the rise in Myanmar exports was helped by low labour costs compared to Cambodia and China, along with trade preferences granted by the EU and United States.

Keeping the factories running is a challenge.

In May, the junta said the national electricity grid was meeting about half of the country’s daily electricity needs.

To keep the lights on and the machines spinning, factory owners rely on expensive generators — themselves vulnerable to the regular diesel shortages that plague Yangon.

“The working situation right now is like we invest more money and get less profits,” said small factory owner Khin Khin Wai.

Cotton spindles have more than doubled in price from 18 cents to 50 cents, she said.

“Our lives here are not progressing year by year, they are falling apart,” she said.

Wai Wai’s factory supplies Danish clothing brand Bestseller.

A Bestseller spokesman told AFP that sourcing from Myanmar was “complex” and the company “continuously assessed” the situation, publishing regular reports on its operations in the country.

According to its September report, “on average” workers at Myanmar factories supplying it were paid a daily wage of 10,000-13,000 kyat ($5-6.50 at the official rate), including bonuses and overtime.

– Crackdown –

Abuses in the sector have spiked since the military took power, rights groups say.

This month, Swiss-based union federation IndustriALL Global Union said the junta had banned unions and arrested union leaders.

“There are widespread, comprehensive reports on the extensive violations of workers’ rights,” IndustriALL general secretary Atle Hoie said in a statement.

AFP has sought comment from the junta about conditions in the industry.

The latest concern is a conscription law enforced from February to shore up the military’s depleted ranks.

In its most recent report on Myanmar, Bestseller said two workers at factories that supply it had been drafted between March and September of this year.

Women are included in the draft, although the junta has said it will not recruit them for now.

For migrant workers like Wai Wai who do not have the means to pay bribes to avoid any draft, it is a huge worry.

“I am full of fear about how I will face it if I am called up for conscription,” Wai Wai said.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Gautam Adani: Billionaire Indian tycoon facing US bribery charges

AFP
November 21, 2024

Gautam Adani has been charged by US prosecutors with paying more than $250 million in bribes to Indian officials for lucrative solar energy supply contracts - Copyright AFP Sam PANTHAKY

Billionaire Indian industrialist Gautam Adani, whose business empire has been rocked by US bribery charges against him, is one of the corporate world’s great survivors.

The tycoon — a close ally of Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi — oversees a vast conglomerate encompassing coal, airports, cement and media operations.

The US court charges that he paid hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes sent his companies’ shares plunging. But Adani has seen off big threats before.

On New Year’s Day in 1998, Adani and an associate were reportedly kidnapped by gunmen demanding a $1.5 million ransom, before being later released at an unknown location.

A decade later, he was dining at Mumbai’s Taj Mahal Palace hotel when it was besieged by militants, who killed 160 people in one of India’s worst terror attacks.

Trapped with hundreds of others, Adani reportedly hid in the basement all night before he was rescued by security personnel early the next morning.

“I saw death at a distance of just 15 feet,” he said of the experience after his private aircraft landed in his hometown Ahmedabad later that day.

Adani, 62, differs from his peers among India’s mega-rich, many of whom are known for throwing lavish birthday and wedding celebrations that are later splashed across newspaper gossip pages.

A self-described introvert, he keeps a low profile and rarely speaks to the media, often sending lieutenants to front corporate events.

“I’m not a social person that wants to go to parties,” he told the Financial Times in a 2013 interview.

– ‘Stop Adani’ –


Gautam Adani, whose empire has been rocked by panic-selling and allegations of fraud, is one of the business world’s great survivors – Copyright AFP INDRANIL MUKHERJEE

Adani was born in Ahmedabad, Gujarat state, to a middle-class family but dropped out of school at 16 and moved to financial capital Mumbai to find work in the lucrative gems trade.

After a short stint in his brother’s plastics business, he launched the flagship family conglomerate that bears his name in 1988 by branching out into the export trade.

His big break came seven years later with a contract to build and operate a commercial shipping port in Gujarat.

It grew to become India’s largest at a time when most ports were government-owned — the legacy of a sclerotic economic planning system that impeded growth for decades and was in the process of being dismantled.

Adani in 2009 expanded into coal, a lucrative sector for a country still almost totally dependent on fossil fuels to meet its energy needs, but a decision that brought greater international scrutiny as he rose rapidly up India’s rich list.

His purchase the following year of an untapped coal basin sparked years of “Stop Adani” protests in Australia after dismay at the project’s monumental environmental impact.

Similar controversies plagued his coal projects in central India, where forests home to tribal communities were cut down for mining operations.

– ‘Extraordinary growth’ –

Adani is considered to be close to Prime Minister Modi, a fellow Gujarat native, and offered the leader the use of a private company jet during the 2014 election campaign that swept him to power.

The tycoon has invested in the government’s strategic priorities, in recent years inaugurating a green energy business with ambitious targets.

In 2022, he completed a hostile takeover of broadcaster NDTV, a television news service considered one of the few media outlets willing to outwardly criticise Modi.

Adani batted away press freedom fears, but told the Financial Times that journalists should have the “courage” to say “when the government is doing the right thing every day”.

Last year a bombshell report from US investment firm Hindenburg Research claimed the conglomerate had engaged in a “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud scheme over the course of decades”.

Hindenburg said a pattern of “government leniency towards the group” stretching back decades had left investors, journalists, citizens and politicians unwilling to challenge its conduct “for fear of reprisal”.

Adani Group denied wrongdoing and characterised the report as a “calculated attack on India” but lost $150 billion in market capitalisation in the weeks after the report’s release.

Its founder saw his own net worth plunge by $60 billion over the same period, and he is now ranked by Forbes as the 25th-richest person globally.

US prosecutors on Wednesday charged the tycoon and two other board members with paying hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes and hiding the payments from investors.

The indictment accuses Adani Group’s leadership of bribing Indian government officials to secure lucrative government contracts.

The conglomerate and its founder have yet to respond to the charges.

How Indian billionaire Gautam Adani’s alleged bribery scheme took off and unraveled

Indian billionaire Gautam Adani speaks during an inauguration ceremony after the Adani Group completed the purchase of Haifa Port in Israel on Jan. 31, 2023.(REUTERS/File Photo)

https://arab.news/pjuk8
Updated 50 sec ago
Reuters
November 22, 20240

Gautam Adani allegedly tried to bribe local officials in India to persuade them to buy electricity produced by his renewable energy company Adani Green Energy
The allegations caught the attention of US watchdog agencies as Adani’s companies were raising funds from US-based investors in several transactions starting in 2021


NEW YORK: In June of 2020, a renewable energy company owned by Indian billionaire Gautam Adani won what it called the single largest solar development bid ever awarded: an agreement to supply 8 gigawatts of electricity to a state-owned power company.

But there was a problem. Local power companies did not want to pay the prices the state company was offering, jeopardizing the deal, according to US authorities. To save the deal, Adani allegedly decided to bribe local officials to persuade them to buy the electricity.

That allegation is at the heart of US criminal and civil charges unsealed on Wednesday against Adani, who is not currently in US custody and is believed to be in India. His company, Adani Group, said the charges were “baseless” and that it would seek “all possible legal recourse.”

The alleged hundreds of millions of dollars in bribes promised to local Indian officials caught the attention of the US Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission as Adani’s companies were raising funds from US-based investors in several transactions starting in 2021.

This account of how the alleged scheme unfolded is drawn from federal prosecutors’ 54-page criminal indictment of Adani and seven of his associates and two parallel civil SEC complaints, which extensively cite electronic messages between the scheme’s alleged participants.

In early 2020, the Solar Energy Corporation of India awarded Adani Green Energy and another company, Azure Power Global, contracts for a 12-gigawatt solar energy project, expected to yield billions of dollars in revenue for both companies, according to the indictment.

It was a major step forward for Adani Green Energy, run by Adani’s nephew, Sagar Adani. Up until that point, the company had only earned roughly $50 million in its history and had yet to turn a profit, according to the SEC complaint.

The logo of the Adani Group is seen on the facade of its Corporate House on the outskirts of Ahmedabad, India, on November 21, 2024. (REUTERS)

But the initiative soon hit roadblocks. Local state electricity distributors were reluctant to commit to buying the new solar power, expecting prices to fall in the future, according to an April 7, 2021 report by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, a think tank.

Sagar Adani and the Azure CEO at the time discussed the delays and hinted at bribes on the encrypted messaging application WhatsApp, according to the SEC.

When the Azure CEO wrote on Nov. 24, 2020, that the local power companies “are being motivated,” Sagar Adani allegedly replied, “Yup ... but the optics are very difficult to cover. In February 2021, Sagar Adani allegedly wrote to the CEO, “Just so you know, we have doubled the incentives to push for these acceptances.”

The SEC did not name the Azure CEO as a defendant, but Azure’s securities filings show the CEO at the time was Ranjit Gupta.

Gupta was charged by the Justice Department with conspiracy to violate an anti-bribery law. He did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Azure said on Thursday it was cooperating with the US investigations, and that the individuals involved with the accusations had left the company more than a year ago.

‘Sudden good fortune’

In August of 2021, Gautam Adani had the first of several meetings with an official in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh, to whom he allegedly ultimately promised $228 million in bribes in exchange for agreeing to have the state buy the power, according to the Justice Department’s indictment.

By December, Andhra Pradesh had agreed to buy the power, and other states with smaller contracts soon followed. Other states’ officials were promised bribes as well, US authorities said.

During a Dec. 6, 2021 meeting at a coffee shop, Azure executives allegedly discussed “rumors that the Adanis had somehow facilitated signing” of the deals, according to the SEC.

Gautam Adani said on Dec. 14, 2021, the company was on track “to become the world’s largest renewables player by 2030.”

“The sudden good fortune for Azure and Adani Green prompted speculation in the marketplace about the contract awards,” the SEC wrote in its complaint.

Letter from the SEC

Before long, the SEC began to probe. The agency sent a “general inquiry” letter to Azure — which at the time traded on the New York Stock Exchange — on March 17, 2022, asking about its recent contracts and if foreign officials had sought anything of value, according to the Justice Department indictment.
According to the Department of Justice, Gautam Adani told representatives of Azure during a meeting in his Ahmedabad, India office the next month that he expected to be reimbursed more than $80 million for the bribes he had paid officials that ultimately benefited Azure’s contracts.

Some Azure representatives and a leading investor in the company decided to pay Adani back by allowing his company to take over a potentially profitable project. The representatives and investor allegedly agreed to tell Azure’s board of directors that Adani had requested bribe money, but hid their role in the scheme, prosecutors said.

All the while, Adani’s companies were raising billions of dollars in loans and bonds through international banks, including from US investors. In four separate fundraising transactions between 2021 and 2024, the companies sent investors documents indicating that they had not paid bribes — statements prosecutors say are false and constitute fraud.

FBI search

During a visit to the United States on March 17, 2023, FBI agents seized Sagar Adani’s electronic devices. The agents handed him a search warrant from a judge indicating that the US government was investigating potential violations of fraud statutes and the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act.

According to prosecutors, Gautam Adani emailed himself photographs of each page of the search warrant on March 18, 2023.

His companies nonetheless went through with a $1.36 billion syndicated loan agreement on Dec. 5, 2023, and another sale of secured notes in March 2024, and once again furnished investors with misleading information about their anti-bribery practices, according to prosecutors.

On Oct. 24, federal prosecutors in Brooklyn secured a secret grand jury indictment against Gautam Adani, Sagar Adani, Gupta, and five others allegedly involved in the scheme.
The indictment was unsealed on Nov. 20, prompting a $27 billion plunge in Adani Group companies’ market value. Adani Green Energy promptly canceled a scheduled $600 million bond sale.

UK sanctions Angola’s Isabel dos Santos in graft crackdown


By AFP
November 21, 2024

Isabel Dos Santos is one of three people dubbed 'infamous kleptocrats' by the UK government - Copyright AFP/File Patrick T. Fallon

The UK government on Thursday announced sanctions on Angola’s Isabel dos Santos, the billionaire businesswoman and daughter of the country’s former president, as part of a new anti-corruption drive.

It also sanctioned Dmytro Firtash, a Ukrainian tycoon with links to the Kremlin, and Aivars Lembergs, one of Latvia’s richest people, who is accused of abusing his political position to commit bribery and money laundering, the foreign ministry said.

They are all subject to travel bans and asset freezes, it added in a statement, calling them “three infamous kleptocrats” and accusing them of “stealing their countries’ wealth for personal gain”.

Dos Santos, the ministry said, had “systematically abused her positions at state-run companies to embezzle at least £350 million ($443 million), depriving Angola of resources and funding for much-needed development”.

Considered Africa’s richest woman, she is currently wanted by Angolan authorities investigating alleged illegalities in the management of national oil company Sonangol between 2016 and 2017.

Her father, Jose Eduardo dos Santos, who died in 2022, ruled energy-rich Angola for 38 years until 2017.

She was sanctioned by the United States in 2021 for “involvement in significant corruption” and is barred from entering the United States.

Responding to the UK decision Thursday, dos Santos said that it was “incorrect and unjustified” and that she “intends to appeal”.

“I hope that the United Kingdom will give me the opportunity to present my evidence and prove these lies fabricated against me by the Angolan regime,” she said in a statement released in Portuguese.

“No court has found me guilty of corruption or bribery,” she added. “We are facing another step in Angola’s politically motivated campaign of persecution against me and my family.”

– ‘Ill-gotten gains’ –

Firtash is a one-time ally of ousted pro-Russian Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych.

He is currently in Austria fighting extradition to the United States, where he is wanted on bribery and racketeering charges.

In June 2021, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a decree imposing sanctions on Firtash, including the freezing of his assets and withdrawal of licences from his companies, after accusing him of selling titanium products to Russian military companies.

“(Firtash) extracted hundreds of millions of pounds from Ukraine through corruption and his control of gas distribution and has hidden tens of millions of pounds of ill-gotten gains in the UK property market alone,” the UK government statement added.

Sanctions would also be imposed on his wife, Lada Firtash, and UK-based Denis Gorbunenko, a UK-based financial “fixer”.

Lembergs, a former mayor, is accused of bribery and money laundering. His daughter, Liga Lemberga, is also sanctioned.

In 2021, a Riga court found him guilty of 19 charges including extorting bribes, forging documents, money laundering and improper use of office.

The measures are the latest under 2021 anti-corruption sanctions legislation brought in by the previous Conservative administration.

“These unscrupulous individuals selfishly deprive their fellow citizens of much-needed funding for education, healthcare and infrastructure — for their own enrichment,” said Foreign Secretary David Lammy, a member of the UK’s new Labour government elected in July.

 ”I committed to taking on kleptocrats and the dirty money that empowers them when I became Foreign Secretary… The tide is turning. The golden age of money laundering is over,” he said.

The Conservative government of Boris Johnson announced the first sanctions under its new global anti-corruption regime in 2021.

Britain had previously followed the European Union’s sanctions regime but since leaving the bloc in January 2020 struck out alone with its own policy.

The global anti-corruption sanctions were designed to prevent Britain from being a haven for illicit funds and money laundering.

SPACE/COSMOS

Many physicists argue the universe is fine-tuned for life – findings question this idea

The Conversation
November 21, 2024

Universe (Image credit: NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, CC BY)

Physicists have long grappled with the question of why the universe was able to support the evolution of intelligent life. The values of the many forces and particles, represented by some 30 so-called fundamental constants, all seem to line up perfectly to enable it.

Take gravity. If it were much weaker, matter would struggle to clump together to form stars, planets and living beings. And if it were stronger, that would also create problems. Why are we so lucky?

Research that I recently published with my colleagues John Peacock and Lucas Lombriser now suggests that our universe may not be optimally tailored for life. In fact, we may not be inhabiting the most likely of possible universes.

We particularly studied how the emergence of intelligent life is affected by the density of “dark energy” in the universe. This manifests as a mysterious force that speeds up the expansion of the universe, but we do not know what it is.

The good news is that we can still measure it. The bad news is that the observed value is way smaller than what we would expect from theory. This puzzle is one of the biggest open questions in cosmology, and was a primary motivation for our research.

Anthropic reasoning

We tested whether “anthropic reasoning” may offer a suitable answer. Anthropic reasoning is the idea that we can infer properties of our universe from the fact that we, humans, exist. In the late 80s, physics Nobel laureate Steven Weinberg discussed a possible anthropic solution for the observed value of the dark energy density.

Weinberg reasoned that a larger dark energy density would speed up the universe’s expansion. This would counteract gravity’s effort to clump matter together and form galaxies. Fewer galaxies means fewer stars in the universe. Stars are essential for the emergence of life as we know it, so too much dark energy would suppress the odds of intelligent life such as humans appearing.

Weinberg then considered a “multiverse” of different possible universes, each with a different dark energy content. Such a scenario follows from some theories of cosmic inflation, a period of accelerated expansion occurring early in the universe’s history.


Weinberg proposed that only a tiny fraction of the universes within the multiverse, whether real or hypothetical, would have a sufficiently small dark energy density to enable galaxies, stars and, ultimately, intelligent life, to appear. This would explain why we observe a small dark energy density – despite our theories suggesting it should be much larger – we simply could not exist otherwise.



Number of stars (white) produced in universes with different dark energy densities. Clockwise from the upper-left panel: no dark energy, same dark energy density as in our universe, 30 and 10 times the dark energy density in our universe. Credit: Courtesy of Oscar Veenema, former undergraduate student at Durham University, now PhD student at Oxford University, CC BY-SA


A potential pitfall in Weinberg’s reasoning is the assumption that the fraction of matter in the universe that ends up in galaxies is proportional to the number of stars formed. Some 35 years later, we know that it is not that simple. Our research then aimed at testing Weinberg’s anthropic argument with a more realistic star formation model.
Counting stars

Our goal was to determine the number of stars formed over the entire history of a universe with a given dark energy density. This boils down to a counting exercise.


First, we picked a dark energy density between zero and 100,000 times the observed value. Depending on the amount, gravity can hold matter together more or less easily, determining how galaxies can form.

Next, we estimated the yearly amount of stars formed within galaxies over time. This followed from the balance between the amount of cool gas that can fuel star formation, and the opposing action of galactic outflows that heat up and push gas outside galaxies.

We then determined the fraction of ordinary matter that was converted into stars over the entire lifetime (past and future) of a certain universe model. This number expressed the efficiency of that universe at producing stars.



Credit: Image readapted from D. Sorini, J. A. Peacock, L. Lombriser, in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 535, Issue 2, Pages 1449–1474. Source: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stae2236, CC BY-SA

We then assumed that the likelihood of generating intelligent life in a universe is proportional to its star formation efficiency. As the figure above shows, this suggests that the most hospitable universe contains about one-tenth of the dark energy density observed in our universe.


Our universe is thus not too far from the most favourable possible for life. But it also isn’t the most ideal.

But to validate Weinberg’s anthropic reasoning, we should imagine picking a random intelligent life form in the multiverse, and ask them what dark energy density they observe.

We found that 99.5% of them would experience a larger dark energy density than observed in our universe. In other words, it looks like we inhabit a rare and unusual universe within the multiverse.

This does not contradict the fact that universes with more dark energy would suppress star formation, hence reducing the chances of forming intelligent life.




Marbles in boxes. CC BY-SA

By analogy, suppose we want to sort 300 marbles into 100 boxes. Each box represents a universe, and each marble an intelligent observer. Let us put 100 marbles in box number one, four in box number two and then two marbles in all other boxes. Clearly, the first box contains the single largest number of marbles. But if we pick one marble at random from all boxes, it is more likely to come from a box other than number one.

Likewise, universes with little dark energy are individually more hospitable for life. But life, although more unlikely, can still spawn in the many possible universes with abundant dark energy too – there will still be a few stars in them. Our calculation finds that most observers among all universes will experience a higher dark energy density than is measured in our universe.

Also, we found that the most typical observer would measure a value about 500 times larger than in our universe.

Where does that leave us?


In conclusion, our results challenge the anthropic argument that our existence explains why we have such a low value of dark energy. We could have more easily found ourselves in a universe with a larger dark energy density.

Anthropic reasoning may still be salvaged if we adopt more complex multiverse models. For example, we could allow for the amount of both dark energy and ordinary matter to vary across different universes. Perhaps, the reduced spawning of intelligent life due to a higher dark energy density might be compensated by a higher density of ordinary matter.

In any case, our findings warn us against a simplistic application of anthropic arguments. This makes the dark energy problem even harder to grapple with.

What should we cosmologists do now? Roll up our sleeves and think harder. Only time will tell how we solve the puzzle. However we will do it, I am sure it will be incredibly exciting.

Daniele Sorini, Post Doctoral Research Associate in Cosmology, Durham University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The first ‘zoomed-in’ image of a star outside our galaxy


By AFP
November 21, 2024

The image of the massive star, which is encircled by a mysterious "egg-shaped cocoon" - Copyright AFP Andrej ISAKOVIC

Scientists said Thursday they have taken the first ever close-up image of a star outside of the Milky Way, capturing a blurry shot of a dying behemoth 2,000 times bigger than the Sun.

Roughly 160,000 light years from Earth, the star WOH G64 sits in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a satellite galaxy of our home Milky Way.

It is a red supergiant, which is the largest type of star in the universe because they expand into space as they near their explosive deaths.

The image was captured by a team of researchers using a new instrument of the European Southern Observatory’s Very Large Telescope in Chile.

Keiichi Ohnaka, an astrophysicist at Chile’s Andres Bello National University, said that “for the first time, we have succeeded in taking a zoomed-in image of a dying star”.

The image shows the bright if blurry yellow star enclosed inside an oval outline.

“We discovered an egg-shaped cocoon closely surrounding the star,” Ohnaka said in a statement.

“We are excited because this may be related to the drastic ejection of material from the dying star before a supernova explosion,” added the lead author of a study published in the journal Astronomy & Astrophysics.

– ‘Witness a star’s life in real time’ –

Ohnaka’s team has been watching the star for some time.

In 2005 and 2007 they used the Very Large Telescope’s interferometer, which combined the light from two telescopes, to learn more about the star.

But capturing an image remained out of reach until a new instrument called GRAVITY — which combines the light of four telescopes — recently came online.

When they compared all their observations, the astronomers were surprised to find that the star had dimmed over the last decade.

“The star has been experiencing a significant change in the last 10 years, providing us with a rare opportunity to witness a star’s life in real time,” said study co-author Gerd Weigelt of Germany’s Max Planck Institute for Radio Astronomy.

Red supergiants — such as Betelgeuse in the Orion constellation — are “one of the most extreme of its kind, and any drastic change may bring it closer to an explosive end,” added study co-author Jacco van Loon of Keele University in the UK.

In their final stages of life, before they go supernova, red supergiants shed their outer layers of gas and dust in a process that can last thousands of years.

It could be this expelled material that is making the star appear dimmer, the scientists said.

This could also explain the strange shape of the dust cocoon that surrounds the star.

Another explanation for the egg-shaped cocoon could be that there is another star hidden somewhere inside that has not yet been discovered.

Gaza boy dreamed of ride to Moon but Israeli missile 'tore him into pieces'

"He said to me 'I hope a rocket comes and I can go to the Moon'. He didn't realise that the rocket would come and tear him up into pieces," says mother of Abdul Aziz, 7, who was killed by Israel along with his brother Hamza, 5 and sister Laila, 3.



AA

Relatives of the Palestinians who were killed in an attack on Al Mawasi area of Khan Younis mourn as dead bodies were taken from the Nasser Hospital for burial in Khan Yunis, Gaza on November 21, 2024. / Photo: AA


As Areej al-Qadi tearfully kissed the bodies of her three young children killed by Israel in an air strike in Gaza, another mourner lashed out at the United States and Arab leaders for not ending the genocide.

Palestinians in Gaza attending one funeral after another after more than a year of Israeli genocide feel abandoned and angry that their pleas for help have gone largely unanswered.

Qadi said her son Abdul Aziz, 7, killed by Israel along with his brother Hamza, 5 and sister Laila, 3, while they played outside in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis, had wanted to be an astronaut.

"He said to me 'I hope a rocket comes and I can go to the Moon'. He didn't realise that the rocket would come and tear him up into pieces," she said.

"What right does America have, talking about democracy, justice and equality? said displaced mourner Ra'fat al-Shaer. "Also a message to the Arab world, to the heads of the Arab nations. How long will this continue?"

Arab countries have not backed their own calls for an end to the suffering of fellow-Muslims with any threats to end diplomatic agreements with Israel despite the killings of tens of thousands of civilians.


Reuters
Mourners gather next to the bodies of Palestinian children killed by Israel in a strike, during a funeral in Khan Younis in southern Gaza, on November 21, 2024.

'They were all martyred'

Israel has killed more than 44,000 people, wounded more than 104,000 and turned Gaza, one of the world's most densely populated places, into a wasteland of crushed cement and twisted metal.


Most of Gaza's population of 2.4 million people has been displaced and the enclave is at risk of famine, more than a year into Israel's genocide.


Many analysts say the reported death toll is a conservative estimate.


A letter to US President Joe Biden from a group of almost 100 American doctors who served in Gaza estimated a death toll of more than 118,000 in October 2024. And according to the UK medical journal The Lancet, the death toll could be more than 180,000.


People like Mahmoud Bin Hassan al-Thalatha, the father of the three children he said were killed along with other innocent people by Israel on a bustling street, say their only recourse is prayer.


"My children were martyred, the people walking were martyred, and the stall vendor was martyred while he was sitting down, they were all martyred. May God have mercy on them."

SOURCE: Reuters TRT World

Fly my encrypted data to the moon — or to the Canadian Space Agency’s first quantum communication satellite anyways


By Abigail Gamble
November 21, 2024

DIGITAL JOURNAL

Katanya Kuntz is a a quantum physicist and CEO and Co-founder of Qubo Consulting Corp. — Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal

“Imagine a rat’s maze,” says Katanya Kuntz, a quantum physicist, CEO and co-founder of Qubo Consulting Corp.

She’s explaining how quantum technology works, during an interview with Digital Journal at Calgary Innovation Week.

You’ve got a rat at one end of the maze, and cheese at the other end. A classic computer is going to test out one path at a time, to figure out which path will get them to the cheese.

“But a quantum computer can try all possibilities simultaneously at once, and then find the path,” she said.

Which means, it figures out the best path much more quickly. And that’s thanks to quantum physics.

Here’s how quantum physics and technology work:

“We’ve had quantum physics for more than 100 years,” Kuntz explains. It’s the study of the microscopic building blocks of pretty much everything in the universe — like atoms. And they have different, rather wacky rules that we’re not used to experiencing in everyday life.

Some of what we understand about these building blocks or particles (their principles or rules) has been applied to what were called Quantum 1.0 technologies for a while, says Kuntz.

Essentially, everyday tools like lasers, LED lights, electronics, MRI and x-ray machines are created by applying the foundational principles of quantum physics to a technological process.

To return to the rat maze analogy…

In quantum physics, one of the “basic” rules is that a particle can exist in multiple places, simultaneously.

A particle doesn’t have a fixed location until we look at it. This happens because particles behave like waves of probability rather than fixed objects. Until we observe or measure a particle, it’s in a state of uncertainty, where all possible outcomes coexist.

So a quantum computer can explore every different maze path that’s possible, all at the same time.

Cool, huh?

It gets cooler though, because these days, scientists are working on technologies that use the more complicated quantum principle of entanglement to create “quantum networks” or a “quantum Internet” that will enable next-level data encryption. It’s Quantum 2.0.

Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal

How Quantum 2.0 is going to protect our data so it’s unhackable

An exciting example of Quantum 2.0 technology is Canada’s first quantum communication satellite that’s set to launch in 2025 or 2026, which will help secure our data in a whole new way, says Kuntz.

In addition to her role at Qubo, Kuntz is the science team coordinator for this mission, which is called the Quantum EncrYption and Science Satellite (QEYSSat), and is owned by the Canadian Space Agency.

What’s the satellite going to do exactly?

The QEYSSat science team is going to beam a laser up from the Earth to communicate with it.

“So there’s a ground station in Waterloo, Ontario,” Kuntz explains, “It’s literally a telescope … we’re going to shoot a laser up.” And this will be a “quantum uplink” sending particles of light — called photons — up from the ground to space.

Quantum communication systems are sent to space because satellites allow secure communication over long distances, something that’s hard to achieve on Earth due to interference and the limited range of ground-based fibre systems.

These photon signals can be used to encode and encrypt everything from online banking to sensitive transaction records to private government data, and are much, much more secure than any of the other encryption technologies we use today.

“With quantum, you can actually encrypt the information securely. So it’s theoretically 100% secure,” explains Kuntz.

And this level of encryption is increasingly necessary as hacking and ransomware threats become a bigger concern, she says.

“Calgary’s Public Library system got hacked about a month ago and was held hostage, and they still don’t have internet, computers, printers, anything electronic. There’s literally a sign when you walk into the public libraries here that says, ‘no technology.’ And you can take out books, but you can’t return books because they can’t check anything.”

How and why we need quantum satellite encryption:

When you encode information on the individual photons, if a hacker is trying to access your data, it will affect the light stream, and you’ll know because you’re monitoring that channel, says Kuntz.

“This is to everyone’s benefit,” she says and is part of the Canadian government’s quantum strategy, prepping for the day when the first quantum computers come online. This could happen in the next five to 15 years, says Kuntz.

“There’s around 20 countries already that have quantum satellite missions, so we’re not the first,” she says. But the value of having our own in Canada is to establish our own secure quantum network.

“So it’s our national sovereignty to have our own quantum Internet. It protects our own public information.”

Katanya Kuntz spoke with Abigail Gamble for Digital Journal during Calgary Innovation Week. Photo by Jennifer Friesen, Digital Journal

Everyone else needs to prepare for our quantum future too

It’s not just governments who need to prepare for the quantum future, says Kuntz. Businesses and organizations can (and probably should) start looking now for quantum solutions to their problems.

And by problems, she means almost any challenge that includes a lot of complex variables.

For instance: “There are cities that are using quantum optimization algorithms, like Tokyo, to improve their transportation and waste management,” Kuntz says.

Some of the complex challenges quantum can help navigate include:

“If there’s events in the city, how is that going to affect the waste management? If there’s [extra] traffic flow, if there’s [unexpected] weather events, if there’s suddenly a snow dump, that’s going to really affect your routes, and maybe your garbage trucks won’t get to all their stops.”

Quantum tools can help provide solutions in situations like these, that are faster (like our rat to cheese scenario) and ensure the data involved is more secure (with next-level encryptions).

The speed and security of quantum can be used to improve the efficiency of every sector from finance, to aviation to agriculture and manufacturing, Kuntz says. “It’s not just one industry. This is touching every single industry in the world.”

She also notes that companies and organizations alike need to be prepared for when quantum computers come online, because they’ll be able to hack anything that isn’t quantum encrypted.

“Elect somebody in your company to be your technology evangelist, and have a small budget for their training.” Once they understand quantum a little better, Kuntz recommends sending them off to find people and tools who can help do a “cryptographic inventory” of your assets.

“Engage with a quantum company and start exploring,” she says.

Written By Abigail Gamble
Abigail is a writer, editor, journalist and content strategist based in Toronto and El Salvador.