It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
Tuesday, December 31, 2024
'Incredibly weak': Internet praises — then turns on — Ford Motors after social media hack
No, an intern is not to blame for Ford Motor Company’s official X account going rogue on Monday after a series of posts that said: “ALL EYES ON GAZA,” “Israel is a terrorist state,” and “Free Palestine.”
The automaker – the latest high-profile social media account to have been hacked over the years– has since deleted the posts that were fired off Monday evening, and launched an investigation into the matter.
“Our X account was briefly compromised and three posts were made that were not authorized or posted by Ford,” the company wrote on X. “They do not represent the views of Ford Motor Company. Ford and X are investigating this breach.”
But by then, the posts had already made their rounds across social media, and users armed with screenshots were quick to hop on the bandwagon with comments.
“Here for woke ford motor company,” tech journalist Paris Marx wrote on Bluesky.
“Someone give the ford social media intern a raise,” podcaster Cortland Coffey wrote on Bluesky.
“Ford Motor company popped off,” tech journalist Taylor Lorenz told her Bluesky followers.
“Holy s--- this is real (checked myself),” Lauren McKenzie wrote in a social media post. “What’s it called when you’re anti anti-genocide,” she wrote in a follow-up post above Ford’s own social media statement – which drew their own attacks.
“This is a statement and not an apology,” rabbi Samuel Stern wrote in a reply post. “I wonder if the unauthorized posts targeted anyone else if you would have apologized?"
“Incredibly weak statement,” Brianna Wu, executive director of Rebellion PAC, told her followers on X. “Denounce antisemitism. Apologize to the Jewish community. Promise consequences for the people responsible.
U.S. farmers fret over Trump's deportation plans
SHOULD HAVE THOUGHT OF THAT WHEN THEY VOTED FOR HIM
Agence France-Presse December 31, 2024 Around 2.4 million people work in farming in the United States, 44 percent of whom are undocumented, according to a survey by the U.S. Department of Labor (David Swanson/AFP)
Lifelong farmer Joe Del Bosque knows that America can't live without immigrants, but he worries that many of his countrymen think it can't live with them either.
"When they're needed, they welcome them. When they don't need them, they want to kick them out," the 75-year-old told AFP.
"Well, right now the country doesn't know that they do need some of these workers."
Farmers like Del Bosque, who grows cantaloupes and almonds in California, fear they could be at the sharp end of president-elect Donald Trump's promise to deport millions of non-citizens.
AFP 'Right now the country doesn't know that they do need some of these workers,' California farmer Joe Del Bosque told AFP regarding undocumented farmworkers Economists agree that a mass expulsion could leave him and others like him without enough workers to harvest food -- causing shortages and sending prices skyrocketing.
"He's talked about deportations. We don't know yet what that means," said Del Bosque.
"Does that mean everyone? We certainly hope that doesn't mean he's going to raid our farms, because without our people, our farms will come to a stop."
And it isn't just arable farmers who are worried.
Rick Naerebout, executive director of the Idaho Dairy Producers Association, warns the sudden disappearance of skilled laborers could be "devastating" to the dairy industry.
"It would only take a couple days of disruption and not being able to feed or milk our cows to where you would damage our industry beyond repair," he told AFP. - 'Essential' -
Around 2.4 million people work in farming in the United States, 44 percent of whom are undocumented, according to a survey by the Department of Labor.
University of Michigan economist David Ortega said -- despite what some politicians say publicly -- it is widely acknowledged in official circles that the entire system is heavily dependent on illegal workers.
"These are individuals that perform essential, very labor-intensive tasks like planting and harvesting," he said.
"Many of them fill critical roles that many US-born workers are either unable or unwilling to perform."
AFP University of Michigan economist David Ortega said -- despite what some politicians say publicly -- it is widely acknowledged in official circles that the entire agricultural labor system is heavily dependent on illegal workers Farm work is hard, and often done in a difficult environment -- summer temperatures in California can top 40 celcius (104 Fahrenheit), while winters in places like Idaho are routinely below freezing.
This reality stands in stark contrast to claims by nationalist politicians like Trump that these immigrants are "stealing" American jobs.
Naerebout, of the Idaho Dairy Producers Association, said it's a common -- and frustrating -- fallacy.
To illustrate the point, he says one contractor last year advertised to fill thousands of roles.
"They had fewer than 30 domestic applications for 6,000 jobs," he said.
"Only 12 of those individuals resulted in an interview, and only two resulted in a hire, and those two that got hired didn't make it to harvest.
"Americans don't want these jobs." - Posturing -
Such details were absent on the campaign trail, where Trump rallies painted migrants only as a problem for the United States, a source of crime and overcrowding that need to be sent packing.
The rhetoric was popular with voters, especially in rural areas, many of whom cited immigration as a key reason for supporting Trump.
California dairy farmer Tom Barcellos says he is convinced that -- despite Trump's promise to carry out the largest deportation in US history -- common sense will prevail when the Republican takes office on January 20.
"I've been to (Washington) DC many times. I've been to (California state capital) Sacramento many times," he said.
"Those that have the power know we're not going to go raid agriculture, because that's the food source for the American people, and they don't want to raise the cost any more than it needs to be."
For Naerebout there is a desperate -- and long overdue -- need to move past the political posturing of the last few decades and work out a way forward.
"We've been frustrated for, you know, 20 years trying to find a pathway forward to reforms at a national level, and both (Democrats and Republicans) are at fault," he said.
"We as an industry wonder if there's lack of political will to solve the problem because the problem presents itself as a great political fundraiser and stump speech."
AFP Dairy farmer Tom Barcellos told AFP: 'Those that have the power know we're not going to go raid agriculture, because that's the food source for the American people, and they don't want to raise the cost any more than it needs to be'Del Bosque says he hires around 200 workers during harvest season and finds the process frustrating.
Migrants who try to do things legally get bogged down in a bureaucracy that appears to have no understanding of the needs of the workers or the industries that need to employ them.
"A lot of our fresh fruits and vegetables need to be picked by hand," he said.
"If Americans value that kind of food in their diet -- fresh fruits and vegetables -- they need to consider that we have to have a reliable workforce to have a reliable food supply."
The WHO has repeatedly called on China to offer more information on Covid-19's origins - Copyright AFP/File Noel CELIS Jing Xuan TENG
Beijing insisted on Tuesday that it had shared information on Covid-19 “without holding anything back”, after the World Health Organization implored China to offer more data and access to understand the disease’s origins.
Covid-19, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan in December 2020, went on to kill millions of people, shred economies and overwhelm health systems.
The WHO published a statement on Monday saying it was a “moral and scientific imperative” for China to share more information.
In response, China defended its transparency, saying it had made the “largest contribution to global origin tracing research”.
“Five years ago… China immediately shared epidemic information and viral gene sequence with the WHO and the international community,” foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said.
“Without holding anything back, we shared our prevention, control and treatment experience,” she told reporters at a regular press briefing.
But over the course of the pandemic, the WHO repeatedly criticised Chinese authorities for their lack of transparency and cooperation.
A team of specialists led by the WHO and accompanied by Chinese colleagues conducted an investigation into the pandemic’s origins in early 2021.
In a joint report, they favoured the hypothesis that the virus had been transmitted by an intermediary animal from a bat to a human, possibly at a market.
A team has not been able to return to China since, and WHO officials have repeatedly asked for additional data.
Mao said Tuesday that “more and more clues” pointed “to Covid-19’s origins having a global scope”.
China was “willing to continue working with various parties to promote global scientific origin tracing, and to make active efforts to prevent potential infectious diseases in the future”, she said. – Pandemic preparedness –
This month, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said “the world would still face some of the same weaknesses and vulnerabilities that gave Covid-19 a foothold five years ago”, if a new pandemic emerged today.
“But the world has also learnt many of the painful lessons the pandemic taught us, and has taken significant steps to strengthen its defences against future epidemics and pandemics,” he said.
In December 2021, spooked by the devastation caused by Covid, countries decided to start drafting an accord on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.
The WHO’s 194 member states negotiating the treaty have agreed on most of what it should include, but are stuck on the practicalities.
A key fault line lies between Western nations with major pharmaceutical industry sectors and poorer countries wary of being sidelined when the next pandemic strikes.
While the outstanding issues are few, they include the heart of the agreement: the obligation to quickly share emerging pathogens, and then the pandemic-fighting benefits derived from them such as vaccines.
The deadline for the negotiations is May 2025.
JANUARY 2020
Five years on, WHO urges China to share Covid origins data
A US man receives a coronavirus vaccine - Copyright AFP/File ENRIQUE CASTRO
The World Health Organization on Monday implored China to share data and access to help understand how Covid-19 began, five years on from the start of the pandemic that upended the planet.
Covid-19 killed millions of people, shredded economies and crippled health systems.
“We continue to call on China to share data and access so we can understand the origins of Covid-19. This is a moral and scientific imperative,” the WHO said in a statement.
“Without transparency, sharing, and cooperation among countries, the world cannot adequately prevent and prepare for future epidemics and pandemics.”
The WHO recounted how on December 31, 2019, its country office in China picked up a media statement from the health authorities in Wuhan concerning cases of “viral pneumonia” in the city.
“In the weeks, months and years that unfolded after that, Covid-19 came to shape our lives and our world,” the UN health agency said.
“As we mark this milestone, let’s take a moment to honour the lives changed and lost, recognise those who are suffering from Covid-19 and Long Covid, express gratitude to the health workers who sacrificed so much to care for us, and commit to learning from Covid-19 to build a healthier tomorrow.”
– ‘Same weaknesses’ –
Earlier this month, the WHO’s Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus addressed the issue of whether the world was better prepared for the next pandemic than it was for Covid-19.
“The answer is yes, and no,” he told a press conference.
“If the next pandemic arrived today, the world would still face some of the same weaknesses and vulnerabilities that gave Covid-19 a foothold five years ago.
“But the world has also learnt many of the painful lessons the pandemic taught us, and has taken significant steps to strengthen its defences against future epidemics and pandemics.”
In December 2021, spooked by the devastation caused by Covid, countries decided to start drafting an accord on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response.
The WHO’s 194 member states negotiating the treaty have agreed on most of what it should include, but are stuck on the practicalities.
Study reveals the COVID-19 pandemic’s impact on other causes of death
Shaken by Covid-19, countries decided to build a framework of binding commitments to stop such trauma from happening again - Copyright AFP Fabrice COFFRINI
An international study involving researchers at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science has identified the significant effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on many causes of death across 24 countries. The scientists analysed cause-of-death data before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The researchers found that life expectancy declined in 2020 for all but four of the 24 included countries, with the US experiencing the largest decline of 2.1 years for males. In 2021, most countries experienced further declines in life expectancy, with females in Bulgaria and males in Latvia experiencing the largest losses of over two years.
Lead author Antonino Polizzi said: “This study explores the direct and indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality across the world and highlights that life expectancy losses had still not returned to pre-pandemic levels in several countries by 2022.”
The study found that, in addition to COVID-19 deaths, increased mortality attributed to cardiovascular disease was a major contributor to life expectancy losses during the first two years of the pandemic, particularly in Russia and Eastern Europe. In 2020, cardiovascular disease-related losses were greatest in Russia which experienced losses of 5.3 months.
Bulgaria experienced cardiovascular disease-related losses of 5.5 months in 2021. The authors suggest that this could have been due to lapses in prevention or treatment of cardiovascular disease, or undercounted COVID-19 deaths.
Hence the pandemic reversed years of progress in reducing cardiovascular deaths in several countries, which constituted one of the largest sources of gains in life expectancy over the period 2015-2019. These losses continued through 2022.
The study also found increased mortality from substance abuse and mental health-related causes in some countries during the pandemic. The US and Canada saw continued increases in drug-related deaths, contributing to life expectancy declines. Alcohol-related mortality also increased, with Latvia experiencing significant life expectancy losses. However, suicide and accident mortality typically declined during the pandemic years.
Japan and South Korea experienced minimal life expectancy losses during the pandemic and were the exception to most of these trends. However, females in Japan saw comparatively large losses from suicide mortality in 2020.
More positively, cancer mortality generally continued to decline in most countries. The authors speculate that cancer care was less disrupted than expected during the pandemic, or that people with cancer were more susceptible to COVID-19 mortality which was then not counted as a cancer death.
The study concludes by underscoring the need for robust healthcare systems capable of handling crises without compromising care for other conditions. It also highlights the importance of targeted public health interventions to address the varied impacts across different countries and age groups.
The research appears in the journal PNAS Nexus and it is titled “Indirect Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Cause-of-Death Analysis of Life Expectancy Changes in 24 Countries, 2015 to 2022”.
NUREMBURG REDUX
Israel must face consequences over Gaza campaign: UN experts
Children check the site of an Israeli strike on a broadcast truck in the Nuseirat refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip, on December 26, 2024 - Copyright AFP Eyad BABA
United Nations rights experts on Monday said Israel must face the consequences of “inflicting maximum suffering” on Palestinian civilians in Gaza, alleging Israel was defying international law and being sheltered by its allies.
“International humanitarian law comprises a set of universal and binding rules to protect civilian objects and persons who are not, or are no longer, directly participating in hostilities and limits permissible means and methods of warfare,” the 11 experts said in a joint statement.
“Rather than abide by these rules, Israel has openly defied international law time and again, inflicting maximum suffering on civilians in the occupied Palestinian territory and beyond.
“Israel continues to face no real consequences, largely due to protection offered by its allies.”
The Gaza war was triggered by the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
That resulted in 1,208 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory military campaign has killed more than 45,500 people in Gaza, a majority of them civilians, according to figures from the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
The experts highlighted alleged crimes against humanity committed by Israel “including murder, torture, sexual violence, and repeated forced displacement amounting to forcible transfer”.
They also noted alleged war crimes including “indiscriminate attacks on civilians and civilian objects… the use of starvation as a weapon of war” and “collective punishment”.
They said civilians were protected persons and did not constitute military objectives under international law.
“Acts aimed at their destruction in whole or in part are genocidal,” they added.
– ‘Dangerous message’ –
The experts called for urgent, independent and thorough investigations into alleged serious violations of international law.
“Israel’s continued impunity sends a dangerous message… Israel and its leaders must be held accountable,” they said.
The experts said they were particularly alarmed by Israel’s operations in the northern Gaza Strip.
Since October 6 this year, Israeli operations in Gaza have focused on the north, with officials saying their land and air offensive aims to prevent Hamas from regrouping.
“This siege, coupled with expanding evacuation orders, appears intended to permanently displace the local population as a precursor to Gaza’s annexation,” the experts said.
UN rights experts are independent figures mandated by the Human Rights Council. They do not therefore speak for the United Nations itself.
The 11 experts included the special rapporteurs on internally displaced persons; cultural rights; education; physical and mental health; arbitrary executions; the right to food; and protecting rights while countering terrorism.
Francesca Albanese, the special rapporteur on the rights situation in the occupied Palestinian territories, was also among the experts.
Israel has demanded her removal, branding her a “political activist” abusing her mandate “to hide her hatred for Israel”.
Venezuela fines TikTok $10 million over viral challenge deaths
TikTok's huge global success has been partly built on the success of its "challenges" - Copyright AFP/File LOIC VENANCE
Venezuela’s highest court on Monday fined TikTok $10 million in connection with viral challenges that authorities say left three adolescents dead from intoxication by chemical substances.
Supreme Tribunal of Justice Judge Tania D’Amelio said that the popular video-sharing app had been negligent in failing to implement “necessary and adequate measures” to stop the spread of content encouraging the challenges.
TikTok, which is owned by China’s ByteDance, was ordered to open an office in the South American country and given eight days to pay the fine or face “appropriate” measures.
Venezuela would use the money to “create a TikTok victims fund, intended to compensate for the psychological, emotional and physical damages to users, especially if these users are children and adolescents,” D’Amelio said.
The company told the court that it “understands the seriousness of the matter,” she said.
According to Venezuelan authorities, three adolescents died and 200 were intoxicated in schools across the country after ingesting chemical substances as part of social media “challenges.”
TikTok’s huge global success has been partly built on the success of its challenges — a call that invites users to create videos featuring dances, jokes or games that sometimes go viral.
The app has been accused of putting users in danger with the spread of hazardous challenge videos.
TikTok’s official policy prohibits videos promoting self-harm and suicide.
In November, President Nicolas Maduro threatened “severe measures” against TikTok if it did not remove content related to what he called “criminal challenges.”
Parliament is considering laws regulating social networks, which Maduro said after his disputed reelection in July was being used to promote “hate,” “fascism” and “division.”
He has accused Elon Musk, the billionaire owner of social media platform X, of orchestrating “attacks against Venezuela.”
Taiwan says 2024 was hottest year on record
Natural disasters around the world caused $310 billion in economic losses in 2024
By AFP December 31, 2024 "The average temperature in Taiwan in 2024 will be the highest recorded since 1897," the state forecaster said - Copyright AFP I-Hwa CHENG
Taiwan said Tuesday that this year was the hottest since records began 127 years ago, echoing unprecedented temperature highs felt around the world.
Climate change sparked a trail of extreme weather and record heat globally in 2024, fuelling natural disasters that caused billions of dollars worth of damage.
As of Sunday, the annual average temperature in Taiwan stood at 24.97 degrees Celsius (76.95 degrees Fahrenheit), exceeding the previous record of 24.91C in 2020 and setting a new high, the Central Weather Administration said.
“The average temperature in Taiwan in 2024 will be the highest recorded since 1897,” the state forecaster said in a statement.
But, it warned that the next two months would bring “relatively lower average temperatures, with a chance of extreme cold spells”, despite the global warming trend.
Taiwan said Monday it had increased its target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by the end of the decade to as high as 30 percent from 2005 levels.
Its previous goal was a reduction of up to 25 percent.
“With the development of offshore wind power and renewable energy in 2025, we are confident we can achieve this goal,” Environment Minister Peng Chi-ming told reporters.
The United Nations said Monday that the outgoing year was set to be the warmest ever recorded, capping a decade of unprecedented heat.
Global warming, driven largely by the burning of fossil fuels, is not just about rising temperatures, but the knock-on effect of all the extra heat in the atmosphere and seas.
Warmer air can hold more water vapour, and warmer oceans mean greater evaporation, resulting in more intense downpours and storms.
Impacts are wide-ranging, deadly and increasingly costly, damaging property and destroying crops.
This year saw deadly flooding in Spain and Kenya, multiple violent storms in the United States and the Philippines, and severe drought and wildfires across South America.
In Taiwan, one of the biggest typhoons to hit the island in decades uprooted trees, and triggered floods and landslides in October.
Taiwan is accustomed to frequent tropical storms from July to October, but the island’s weather agency said it was unusual for such a powerful typhoon to hit that late in the year.
Natural disasters around the world caused $310 billion in economic losses in 2024, Zurich-based insurance giant Swiss Re has said.
COLD WAR 2.0
US Treasury says was targeted by China state-sponsored cyberattack
By AFP December 30, 2024 The US Treasury department said that some of its workstations had been hacked after a third-party cybersecurity service provider was compromised. — AFP Stefani Reynolds Beiyi SEOW
The US Treasury Department said Monday that a China state-sponsored actor was behind a cyber breach resulting in access to some of its workstations, according to a letter to Congress seen by AFP.
The incident happened earlier this month, when the actor compromised a third-party cybersecurity service provider and was able to remotely access the Treasury workstations and some unclassified documents, a Treasury spokesperson added.
Treasury contacted the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency after it was alerted of the situation by its provider BeyondTrust, and has been working with law enforcement partners to ascertain the impact.
“The compromised BeyondTrust service has been taken offline and there is no evidence indicating the threat actor has continued access to Treasury systems or information,” the department’s spokesperson said.
In its letter to the leadership of the Senate Banking Committee, the Treasury said: “Based on available indicators, the incident has been attributed to a China state-sponsored Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actor.”
An APT refers to a cyberattack where an intruder establishes and maintains unauthorized access to a target, remaining undetected for a sustained period of time.
The department did not provide further details on what was affected by the breach, but said more information would be released in a supplemental report at a later date.
“Treasury takes very seriously all threats against our systems, and the data it holds,” the Treasury spokesperson added.
The official said that the department would continue working to protect the US financial system from threats.
– Alarm over hacks –
Several countries, notably the United States, have voiced alarm in recent years at what they say is Chinese-government-backed hacking activity targeting their governments, militaries and businesses.
Beijing rejects the allegations, and has previously said that it opposes and cracks down on all forms of cyberattacks.
In September, the US Justice Department said it had neutralized a cyber-attack network that affected 200,000 devices worldwide, alleging it was run by hackers backed by the Chinese government.
In February, US authorities also said they had dismantled a network of hackers known as “Volt Typhoon.”
The group was said to be targeting key public sector infrastructure like water treatment plants and transportation systems at the behest of China.
In 2023, tech giant Microsoft said Chinese-based hackers seeking intelligence information breached the email accounts of a number of US government agencies.
The group, Storm-0558, had breached email accounts at approximately 25 organizations and government agencies.
Accounts belonging to the State Department and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo were among those hacked in that breach.
Belgium becomes first EU country to ban disposable e-cigarettes
By AFP December 30, 2024 From January 1, it will be forbidden to sell single-use vapes in Belgium.
Wildly popular with young people for their dizzying array of flavours, including apple, watermelon and cola, the time is up for disposable e-cigarettes in Belgium — the first EU country to ban them.
From January 1, it will be forbidden to sell single-use vapes in Belgium, a bid to protect young people’s health as part of a national anti-tobacco plan.
The European Union aims to achieve a tobacco-free generation by 2040, reducing the 27-country bloc’s smoking population from around 25 percent now to less than five percent of the total.
Some EU countries plan to bring that deadline forward.
Vapes are often promoted as less harmful than smoking traditional tobacco products.
They attract younger users with their colourful packaging and the promise of mouth-watering flavours, and the advantage of avoiding that nasty smoke smell on fingers.
But since e-cigarettes still contain nicotine, which is highly addictive, critics fear they could be a potential stepping stone to more traditional tobacco products.
“The problem is that young people start using vapes without always knowing their nicotine content, and nicotine is addictive,” said Nora Melard, spokeswoman for the Alliance for a Tobacco-Free Society in Belgium.
“We have young people saying they wake up at night to take a puff,” she told AFP. “It’s very worrying.”
Belgium boasts it has reacted quickly to the dangers posed by disposable e-cigarettes, which hit the market more than five years ago.
In 2021, the federal government submitted a proposal to the European Commission, the EU’s executive arm, to ban single-use vapes.
The commission, which must give its approval for any sales ban, accorded a green light to Belgium in March 2024, paving the way for a national law to enter into force.
France has obtained EU acceptance for a similar ban.
Once enacted, the French law will ban the production, sale and free offer of vapes, with a fine of 100,000 euros ($104,000) for any violations.
– ‘Ecological disaster’ –
Health authorities in France and Belgium say that chronic nicotine consumption is especially harmful to the adolescent brain and could encourage use of other drugs.
An EU study in 2023 found the majority of e-cigarette users opted for a rechargeable vape but the single-use versions were popular with young people aged 15 to 24.
Easy to use and advertised everywhere on social media, disposable vapes are also attractive for their low cost.
At five or six euros, one single-use vape is half the price of a 20-pack of cigarettes. Some allow for up to 9,000 puffs, the equivalent of more than 300 cigarettes, according to experts.
Many Brussels tobacco shops are running out of single-use e-cigarettes, as renewal is impossible.
“I don’t understand why vapes are banned and not tobacco, which is also dangerous,” one young user, Ilias Ratbi, told AFP.
Others welcome the ban. “I think it’s good to stop selling it,” said Yona Bujniak in central Brussels. “There are a lot of young people who start without necessarily thinking about the consequences.”
Opponents also point to the “ecological disaster” caused by disposable vapes.
When seeking the EU’s approval for its ban, Belgium argued that the plastic single-use vape with its lithium battery usually gets thrown away within five days of purchase.
By contrast, the rechargeable versions can last for around six or seven months.
More in Common have run a poll on behalf of the Times, reporting that if there were an election tomorrow, Labour would lose 200 seats, including those of Angela Rayner, Yvette Cooper and Wes Streeting. The Independentreports that they would be joined by Ed Miliband, John Healey and Briget Phillipson.
There can be little doubt that this government has had a poor start. Its decisions to cut pensioners’ winter fuel allowance, and to fail to pay compensation to the WASPI women have not gone down well. While the changes to Inheritance Tax (IHT) have provoked massive resistance from rich land owners, pensioners and contributors to private defined contribution schemes have not yet cottoned on to the impact of the IHT changes proposed in the budget.
Labour’s plan is as it’s always been, to grow the economy and use that growth to fund improvements in services. There are huge questions about whether Labour’s growth plan is sufficient, particularly while they seek to remain outside the European Union’s customs union and single market. It can also be questioned whether construction and financial services can really be the engines for growth that can or will be shared with the population at large. While the budget was better than expected, and better than threatened, the failure to alleviate the financial crises in local government and higher education is storing up a problem for the future.
One of the reasons the Democrats lost in the United States earlier this year, is that while, they pursued policies that led the economy to grow, they took their eye off the ball on the questions of inflation. Many voters were poorer due to a stagnation in real earnings. The lesson to be learned is that growth is not enough, it has to be evenly shared and real wages/earnings need to rise. This means the government needs to regulate and tax profits, rigorously pursue the New Deal for workers and increase expenditure on income transfer programmes targeted at increasing the real incomes of poor families, that is, state pensions, income support allowance, child benefit, and the so-called welfare cap should be removed. This will also have the macro-economic benefit that consumption, that is, aggregate demand will rise.
Politically, the UK and Labour have the frightening example of Germany, where a timid Social Democratic party, forced into a coalition with an ultra-neoliberal Liberal Party, failed to deliver a better life to the German electorate, partly because they didn’t try. They are likely to lose the coming election, although that does not mean they will necessarily be out of Government. In Germany, the AfD are currently polling in second position, with the SPD third. The MiC poll suggests that Reform UK will come third, replacing the Lib Dems. Also across Europe, we see a decline in support for the Greens as combating climate change is seen as a further cause of the cost of living crisis.
The current Labour leadership are completely unequipped to combat the growth of ethno-populism and also underestimate its organisational capability and internet presence, as shown by their ridiculous and cowardly position on the threat of foreign funding of Reform. Its strategy of appealing to Tory voters to switch to Labour did not succeed; dissatisfied Tories on the whole voted Reform or in even larger numbers stayed at home.
The big problem Labour faces is it designed its manifesto to win the election, not run the country. It’s still triangulating and refuses to recognise that triangulation reinforces and legitimises the politics of their opponents. This is particularly so on the issues of immigration and racism.
Some are suggesting that a change of leader is needed. What’s needed is a change of direction that genuinely puts the country first. It remains ‘the economy stupid’, but the economy is real wages/incomes for the majority of people. We have been waiting a long time.
