Corruption scandal means Zelenskiy would likely lose a presidential election
The expanding Energoatom corruption scandal has hurt Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy's popularity and if elections were held this weekend he would lose in the second round, according to a Socis poll.
A majority of Ukrainians believe Zelenskiy should face either criminal prosecution or political sanctions in connection with alleged corruption where his close friend and former business partner Timur Mindich ran a $100mn kickback scheme.
As part of the ongoing peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, both the Trump administration and the Kremlin are insisting that Zelenskiy organise fresh presidential elections as soon as possible after a ceasefire is called. Zelenskiy has said that he is willing to do so and in sign of how far the talks have progressed last week the Rada submitted a bill to organise elections while martial law is still in effect – something that is otherwise banned by Ukraine’s constitution.
In the nationwide survey, 30% of respondents said Zelenskiy should be tried in court for corruption, while an additional 28.4% supported imposing political bans that would prevent him from running in future elections. Taken together, the findings indicate a clear majority in favour of holding the president accountable.
The results reflect growing public dissatisfaction amid the Mindich corruption scandal, which has implicated figures close to the president. Two ministers have already resigned and the head of Ukraine’s presidential office, Andriy Yermak, was forced to quit. According to the poll, 39% of Ukrainians believe Zelenskiy was directly involved in the scandal, while 29.3% believe he at least had knowledge of it.
Zelenskiy’s approval ratings were already under pressure after he tried to gut Ukraine’s anti-corruption reforms on July 22 by forcing through Law 21414 on July 22 that would have put the main organs – National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) and Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO) – under his personal control just as both bodies were zeroing in on corruption investigations in the president's inner circle that led to Mindich fleeing the country.
If presidential elections were held today, Zelenskiy and Ukraine’s former top general Valerii Zaluzhnyi, now the ambassador to the UK, would each receive roughly 30% of the vote in a first-round contest. However, Zelenskiy would be defeated in any likely runoff scenario.
In a hypothetical second round, Zaluzhnyi would defeat Zelenskiy by a wide margin: 64.2% to 35.8%, according to the poll.
Against another prominent military figure, Kyrylo Budanov, the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Zelenskiy would also lose, by 56.2% to 43.8%.
Budanov has overseen many military operations personally and recently launched a successful counter attack in the battle for Pokrovsk, a key logistical hub that supplies the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) defences for the entire frontline in eastern Ukraine. He has seen his popularity rise and is now one of the two top contenders to take over from Zelenskiy as president.
The Socis poll highlights the sharp political risks facing the president as the country navigates prolonged wartime governance, Western expectations for reform, and intensifying internal political rivalry.
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