Thursday, April 24, 2025

 SPACE/COSMOS

Chinese astronauts set to blast off for space station


By AFP
April 23, 2025


Astronauts for China’s Shenzhou-20 space mission (L-R) Wang Jie, Chen Dong and Chen Zhongrui wave during a press conference a day before the launch of the mission - Copyright AFP Pedro Pardo


Matthew WALSH

China will send a new team of astronauts to its space station on Thursday, as the country marches towards its ambition of becoming a space power to rival the dominance of the United States.

Beijing has pumped billions of dollars into its space programme in recent years in an effort to achieve what President Xi Jinping describes as the Chinese people’s “space dream”.

The world’s second-largest economy has bold plans to send a crewed mission to the Moon by the end of the decade and eventually build a base on the lunar surface.

It will mark its latest milestone on Thursday, when the Shenzhou-20 mission will ferry a team of three astronauts to the country’s self-built Tiangong space station.

The all-male trio will blast off at 5:17 pm (0917 GMT) from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center in the country’s remote northwestern desert, according to the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA).

Leading the mission is Chen Dong, 46, a former fighter pilot and veteran space explorer who in 2022 became the first Chinese astronaut to clock up more than 200 cumulative days in orbit.

The other two crew members — 40-year-old former air force pilot Chen Zhongrui, and 35-year-old former space technology engineer Wang Jie — will be embarking on their first space flight.

“Today, I am on the point of realising my dream of flying in space,” Chen Zhongrui told a news conference on Wednesday arranged to introduce the astronauts to the public.

The crew will work on Tiangong for six months, carrying out experiments in physics and life sciences and installing protective equipment against space debris.

For the first time, they will also bring aboard planarians –- aquatic flatworms known for their regenerative abilities.

The team will also conduct spacewalks, replenish supplies and carry out general maintenance on the structure.

Three astronauts currently aboard Tiangong are scheduled to return to Earth on April 29 after completing handover procedures.



– Jewel in the crown –



During a government tour on Wednesday afternoon, AFP journalists saw the rocket ensconced in a sky-blue launch tower, surrounded by red flags as workers in blue jumpsuits made final checks before the launch.

China’s space programme is the third to put humans in orbit and has also landed robotic rovers on Mars and the Moon as it seeks parity with the world’s two most established celestial powers, the United States and Russia.

Crewed by rotating teams of three astronauts every six months, Tiangong — whose name means “celestial palace” in Chinese — is the jewel in its crown.

China has been excluded from the International Space Station since 2011, when the United States banned NASA from collaborating with Beijing.

It has since sought to bring other countries into its space programme, and in February signed a deal with longtime ally Pakistan to bring the first foreign astronaut aboard Tiangong.

As part of this process, “two Pakistani astronauts will be selected to come to China for training”, the CMSA confirmed on Wednesday.


Space Tourism: Balancing Innovation with Environmental Concerns

  • The article presents a debate on whether space tourism is irresponsible, highlighting concerns about its high carbon emissions compared to other activities.

  • Arguments in favor of space tourism suggest it can reduce costs for scientific missions and advance space technology, contributing to a stronger space economy.

  • The verdict of the debate acknowledges the potential benefits of space tourism for innovation but questions if these outweigh the immediate environmental costs and whether resources could be better allocated elsewhere.




Blue Origin’s star-studded space flight caused more backlash than awe, but is all space tourism frivolous? Two writers hash it out in this week’s Debate

Yes: A single space flight emits more carbon than 1bn individual will in their lifetime

Tourism is not the harmless middle-class pastime we’ve all been brainwashed into believing, thanks to a never-ending diet of slick, over-produced adverts.

No. Tourism is an insidious scavenger. While you tramp through some chapel searching for enlightenment and culture, your sweat and breath are busy devouring the frescos. And it gets worse. Much worse.

If you’re on the so-called cutting edge of travel — a trailblazer searching for new frontiers — the first to boldly go to that unspoilt beach in wherever — guess what? There is a cost. After a few trips, too many tourists. So, time to trash the next unspoilt utopia on the list. Some Instagrammable Shangri-la on the verge of collapse. But who cares — so long as you’re keeping up with the Kardashians. Or Katy Perry. Space tourism is worse than all that combined.

The trouble is that we are not talking about some quaint Greek taverna bulldozed to make way for a megahotel. We are talking about space, Earth’s celestial crash helmet that sits over our heads and keeps us safe.

A 2022 World Inequality Report said that a single space flight of a few minutes emits more carbon emissions than 1bn individuals will emit in their lifetime. The study also noted that an 11-minute space trip emits no less than 75 tonnes of carbon per passenger “once indirect emissions are taken into account” and that the number is more likely to be in the 250–1,000 tonnes range.

We all know that pretty soon, space will be like that litter-strewn beach that no one visits. Yet, for those with their feet planted on the ground, no convenient new destination is waiting to be discovered. There is no planet B.

Andy Blackmore is picture editor at City AM and writes at Fishing in the Rivers of Life

No: Space tourism can reduce costs for scientific missions

While there are good arguments to be made on both sides, I believe space tourism is a net positive, and will contribute to a stronger space economy for many reasons.

Similarly to early aviation, space tourism contributes to advancements in propulsion systems, reusable launch vehicles and flight safety. By reducing costs for scientific missions with access to orbit, and generating more cash flow for exploration, space tourism also supports societal advances.

As part of commercial space, investment in tourism helps build infrastructure, and supports new industries from spaceports to vehicles to life support systems to training programs. This in return contributes to the growth of a global space economy, in orbit, cislunar space, on the moon and beyond.

Additionally, expanding access to space for leisure can demystify it. This further encourages public engagement in science and exploration. Experiencing the “Overview Effect” can inspire and educate more people to advocate for a deeper commitment to Earth’s protection and global cooperation.

Moreover, overlooking the environmental impact of other luxury industries (private jets, yachts, cruises) is downright hypocritical, since these are far more prevalent and offer no technological spin-offs. Singling out space tourism among other luxury travel activities is inconsistent and short-sighted.

This debate ultimately rests on values and vision: can bold investments in frontier technologies, including space tourism, play a role in long-term sustainability, innovation, societal potential and benefits for Earth? I believe they can and they will in the years to come.

Chris Bosquillon is a consultant at SAY Space


Evidence blasted into space: Mystery why some meteorites look less shocked solved



Kobe University
250424-Kurosawa-Chondrites-Illustration 

image: 

In carbon-containing meteorites, impacts create extremely hot carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide gases (yellow). Kurosawa says: “We found that the momentum of the ensuing explosion is enough to eject the highly shocked rock material (red) into space. Such explosions occur on carbon-rich meteorites (left), but not on carbon-poor ones (right).” The team thus concluded that carbon-containing meteorites are no less shocked, but that, in fact, the evidence is simply removed.

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Credit: KUROSAWA Kosuke





Carbon-containing meteorites look like they had less severe impacts than those without carbon because the evidence was blasted into space by gases produced during the impact. The Kobe University discovery not only solves a 30-year-old mystery, but also provides guidelines for a future sampling mission to Ceres.

Knowing what happens when meteorites collide is important for understanding the evolution of the solar system because it provides a window into the solar system’s past. And so, planetary scientists as well as astrobiologists analyzing meteorite samples have been puzzled to find that meteorites containing carbon show much less evidence of high-speed impacts than those without. It is as if the ones containing carbon all somehow collided at lower speeds, although it is unclear why that should be. Kobe University astrophysicist KUROSAWA Kosuke says: “I specialize in impact physics and am interested in how the meteorite material changes in response to impacts, something called ‘shock metamorphism.’ And so I was very interested in this question.”

Kurosawa was inspired by a theory put forward 20 years ago by another Kobe University researcher that the impact produces degassed vapor from water-containing minerals in the meteorite which then ejects the evidence into space. “I thought the idea was brilliant, but it had problems. For one, they did not perform calculations whether this process would produce enough water vapor. Also, there are carbon-containing meteorites without such water-containing minerals that also seem to be less shocked,” explains the astrophysicist. Thinking that the carbon-containing materials themselves should behave differently when shocked, he decided to investigate this idea using a device he had developed: a two-stage light gas gun connected to a sample chamber. This setup allowed Kurosawa and his team to collect and analyze the gases produced by a pellet’s high-speed impact into a sample that mimicked meteorites both with and without carbon without the measurements being contaminated by the gases produced by the gun shot itself.

The Kobe University team now published their results in the journal Nature Communications. Their experiments revealed that impacts on carbon-containing meteorites cause chemical reactions that produce extremely hot carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide gases. Kurosawa says: “We found that the momentum of the ensuing explosion is enough to eject the surrounding highly-shocked rock material into space. Such explosions occur on carbon-rich meteorites, but not on carbon-poor ones.” The team thus concluded that carbon-containing meteorites are no less shocked, but that, in fact, the evidence is quite literally blown away.

All may not be lost, however. On larger space rocks such as the dwarf planet Ceres, the team calculated that gravity may be strong enough to pull the ejected material back to the body’s surface. “Our results predict that Ceres should have accumulated highly-shocked material produced by these impacts, and so we believe that this provides a guideline for planning the next generation of planetary exploration missions,” Kurosawa explains.

This research was funded by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (grant JP19H00726), the Hyogo Science and Technology Association (grant #6077), and the Science and Technology Facilities Council (grant ST/S000615/1). It was conducted in collaboration with researchers from the Chiba Institute of Technology and Imperial College London. This work was supported by ISAS/JAXA as a collaborative program with the Hypervelocity Impact Facility. Numerical computations and analyses were in part carried out on the general-purpose PC cluster and the analysis servers at Center for Computational Astrophysics, National Astronomical Observatory of Japan.

Kobe University is a national university with roots dating back to the Kobe Higher Commercial School founded in 1902. It is now one of Japan’s leading comprehensive research universities with nearly 16,000 students and nearly 1,700 faculty in 10 faculties and schools and 15 graduate schools. Combining the social and natural sciences to cultivate leaders with an interdisciplinary perspective, Kobe University creates knowledge and fosters innovation to address society’s challenges.


The heart of world’s largest solar telescope begins to beat



First Light! The spectro-polarimeter of the world's largest solar telescope in Hawaii looks at the Sun for the first time. The instrument was developed in Germany



Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research

Narrow-band image of the Sun as seen with VTF 

image: 

A narrow-band image of the Sun at a wavelength of λ=588.9nm, that of a well known solar sodium line also known as the “NaD line.” The image was acquired during recent first light efforts with the VTF at the Inouye, and shows how precisely the structures within a sunspot are resolved. Each pixel in the original version of the image corresponds to 10 km (or 6.2 miles) on the Sun.

view more 

Credit: © VTF/KIS/NSF/NSO/AURA





With a primary mirror diameter of four meters, the Inouye Solar Telescope is the largest in the world. Thanks to the optimal observational conditions on the Hawaiian volcano Haleakala and the use of sophisticated methods of image stabilization and reconstruction, the Inouye Solar Telescope has been providing breathtakingly detailed views of our star since 2022: it can make smallest structures visible. To extract as much detailed information as possible about our star from sunlight, the Inouye Solar Telescope is gradually being equipped with additional scientific instruments. They process the incoming light, for example by examining individual wavelength ranges or polarization states of the light separately. Four of the five instruments are already in operation. The latest addition, the world's largest spectro-polarimeter VTF, is the most powerful of them. As part of the technical commissioning, the first images of the Sun have now been taken with VTF. Researchers refer to this milestone as a technical first light.

“The Inouye Solar Telescope was designed to study the underlying physics of the Sun as the driver of space weather. In pursuing this goal, the Inouye is an ideal platform for an unprecedented and pioneering instrument like the VTF”, said Christoph Keller, Director of the National Solar Observatory, which operates the Inouye Solar Telescope.

A look at the dynamic nature of the Sun

The goal of the VTF team is to better understand the dynamic nature of our star. Time and again, the Sun displays powerful eruptions that hurl particles and radiation into space. On Earth, this solar bombardment can trigger spectacular auroras, but can also disrupt technical infrastructure and satellites. With VTF, the Inouye Solar Telescope will peer more precisely than ever before into the region of the Sun where eruptions originate: the visible surface of the Sun, the photosphere, and the adjacent layer of the solar atmosphere, the chromosphere. The complex interaction of hot plasma flows and changing magnetic fields there holds the key to a better understanding of the processes that trigger eruptions. VFT can determine crucial properties such as plasma flow velocity, magnetic field strength, pressure, and temperature.

A colossus peering at the Sun

“The commissioning of VTF represents a significant technological advance for the Inouye Solar Telescope. The instrument is, so to speak, the heart of the solar telescope, which is now finally beating at its final destination,” says Matthias Schubert, VTF project scientist at KIS.

VTF is a true colossus. Weighing 5.6 tons and with a footprint roughly the size of a small garage, it occupies two floors. It was developed over the past years at the Institute for Solar Physics in Freiburg (Germany); installation on site at the Inouye Solar Telescope began at the beginning of last year. The total development time was about 15 years, almost as long as that of the solar telescope itself.

The task of VFT is to image the Sun at the highest possible spatial, temporal, and spectral resolution. To filter out individual, very narrow wavelength ranges from the incoming visible sunlight, the instrument uses two Fabry-Pérot interferometers that are unique in the world in terms of their size and precision. This makes it possible to spectrally scan the sunlight with an accuracy of a few picometers. In addition, VTF selects individual polarization states, i.e. the oscillation direction of the light. Two-dimensional images of the Sun are then created for each wavelength and polarization state, from which temperature, pressure, speed, and magnetic field strength at different altitudes of the Sun can be determined. The observational data achieves a spatial resolution of about 10 kilometers per pixel and a temporal resolution of hundreds of images per second.

“VTF enables images of unprecedented quality and thus heralds a new era in ground-based solar observation,” says Sami K. Solanki, director at the MPS.

A first glimpse

The newly published image utilizes sunlight with a wavelength of 588.9 nanometers. It shows a dark sunspot with its finely structured penumbra in a section of the solar surface measuring approximately 25,000 kilometers by 25,000 kilometers. Sunspots cover the surface of the Sun with varying frequency. They are associated with particularly strong magnetic fields that prevent hot plasma from rising from the interior of the Sun. The image achieves a spatial resolution of 10 kilometers per pixel.

About the telescope and instrument

The Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope is funded by the US National Science Foundation (NSF) and operated by the National Solar Observatory (NSO). The Visible Tunable Filtergraph (VTF) spectro-polarimeter was developed and built by the Institute for Solar Physics in Freiburg (Germany). Project partners are the Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS) in Göttingen (Germany) and the Istituto ricerche solari Aldo e Cele Daccò (IRSOL) in Switzerland.

More information: https://idw-online.de/en/news850970


Largest imaging spectro-polarimeter achieves first light at the NSF Daniel K. Inouye solar telescope



First solar image from the new Visible Tunable Filter marks its emergence as a centerpiece of Inouye's scientific instruments




Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA)

VTF First Light Sunspot Image 

image: 

A narrow-band image of the Sun at a wavelength of λ=588.9nm - that of a well known solar sodium line also known as the “NaD line.” The image was acquired during recent first light efforts with the VTF at the Inouye, and shows how precisely the structures within a sunspot are resolved - and imply how thoroughly they can be examined by combining all data (image, spectroscopy, and polarimetry) available from the VTF. Each pixel in the original version of the image corresponds to 10 km (or 6.2 miles) on the Sun.

view more 

Credit: VTF/KIS/NSF/NSO/AURA





Maui, HI – The U.S. National Science Foundation Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope, the world’s most powerful solar telescope, operated by the NSF National Solar Observatory (NSO) near the summit of Maui’s Haleakalā, reached a major milestone: achieving first light with its most advanced instrument, the new Visible Tunable Filter (VTF). The solar image it produced shows early promise to the instrument’s scientific capabilities. Designed and built by the Institut für Sonnenphysik (KIS) in Freiburg, Germany, the VTF is the world’s largest imaging spectro-polarimeter, emerging as a centerpiece to the Inouye’s instrument suite.

First Light Achieved  

After arriving last year, the KIS team, in collaboration with NSF NSO scientists and engineers, rebuilt and integrated the VTF into the Inouye’s Coudé Lab, marking the completion of the telescope’s originally designed suite of five first-generation instruments. Following extensive optic calibration and alignment, the team successfully carried out the instrument’s first on-Sun observations.

The newly released image reveals a cluster of sunspots on the Sun’s surface with a spatial sampling of 10 km (or 6.2 miles) per pixel. Sunspots, areas of intense magnetic activity, often lead to solar flares and coronal mass ejections. This image, taken during technical testing as part of first light, shows early promise for the VTF’s full capabilities. While it is not yet fully operational, science verification and commissioning are expected to begin in 2026.

The Inouye was built for instruments like the VTF - of such magnitude that it took over a decade to develop. These successful first light observations underscore the unique quality and functionality of the instrument, setting the stage for exciting findings in solar physics in the coming decades. 

“After all these years of work, VTF is a great success for me,” said Dr. Thomas Kentischer, KIS Co-Principal Investigator and key architect behind the instrument’s optical design. “I hope this instrument will become a powerful tool for scientists to answer outstanding questions on solar physics.”

“The significance of the technological achievement is such that one could easily argue the VTF is the Inouye Solar Telescope’s heart, and it is finally beating at its forever place,” added Dr. Matthias Schubert, KIS VTF Project Scientist.

The Instrument

The VTF is an imaging spectro-polarimeter that captures two-dimensional snapshots of the Sun at specific wavelengths. Different wavelengths of light appear to our eyes as different colors - and light increases in wavelength as it moves from violet to red in the optical range of the electromagnetic spectrum. Unlike traditional spectrographs that spread light into a full spectrum like a rainbow, the VTF uses an etalon - a pair of precisely spaced glass plates separated by tens of microns - that allows it to tune through colors. By adjusting this spacing at the nanometer scale (i.e., as tiny as a billionth of a meter), the VTF sequentially scans different wavelengths, similar to taking a series of photographs using different color filters. It takes several hundred images in just a few seconds with three high-accuracy synchronized cameras, at different colors, and combines these images to build a three-dimensional view of solar structures and analyzes their plasma properties.

The VTF features the largest Fabry-Pérot etalons ever built for solar research, with a second etalon expected to arrive from KIS by year’s end.

“Seeing those first spectral scans was a surreal moment. This is something no other instrument in the telescope can achieve in the same way,” said Dr. Stacey Sueoka, Senior Optical Engineer at NSO. “It marked the culmination of months of optical alignment, testing, and cross-continental teamwork. Even with just one etalon in place, we’re already seeing the instrument’s potential. This is only the beginning, and I’m excited to see what’s possible as we complete the system, integrate the second etalon, and move toward science verification and commissioning.”

Additionally, light moves in waves that can oscillate in different directions. Polarimetry is the technique of measuring the direction in which these lightwaves oscillate. When you combine spectroscopy and polarimetry, you are not just looking at the colors of the light - you are also figuring out how lightwaves’ oscillations are oriented at each color. Certain features, like solar magnetic fields, are not obvious just by looking at the light’s colors; but if the light is polarized in a particular way, and we are able to measure it, that can reveal hidden details about the solar magnetic field, which is crucial for understanding solar flares, and space weather. The VTF, with its unparalleled combination of imaging, spectral, and polarimetric capabilities, allows us to get an unprecedented full picture from the light we receive from the Sun. 

The central mission of the VTF is to spectroscopically isolate narrow-band images of the Sun at the highest possible spectral, spatial and temporal resolution provided by the Inouye - i.e., a spectral resolution able to resolve a range of wavelengths as small as 1/100,000th of the center wavelength; a spatial resolution that requires 10 km sampling to image the finest details on the sun accessible to the Inouye/VTF; and a temporal resolution of a few seconds within which the instrument acquires hundreds of images.

This means that it can take consecutive images of areas of the Sun by recording just a distinct small range of wavelengths tied to specific properties of solar phenomena. During one single observation, around 12 million spectra are recorded, which can then be used to determine the temperature, pressure, velocity, and magnetic field strength at different altitudes in the solar atmosphere. From this, high-precision velocity and magnetic field maps can be derived to track evolutionary changes of solar phenomena on spatial scales between 20-40,000 km (i.e., 12-25,000 miles). 

Finally, it is VTF’s polarimetric capabilities that allow us to measure the polarization of the light coming from the imaged areas, and from it, infer its magnetic properties. By correlating all this information - i.e., spatial, temporal, spectral, and magnetic - we get an unprecedented understanding of the nature of our home star, and the mechanisms driving solar phenomena.

Why It Matters

“When powerful solar storms hit Earth, they impact critical infrastructure across the globe and in space. High-resolution observations of the sun are necessary to improve predictions of such damaging storms,” said Carrie Black, NSF program director for the NSF National Solar Observatory. “The NSF Inouye Solar Telescope puts the U.S. at the forefront of worldwide efforts to produce high-resolution solar observations and the Visible Tunable Filter will complete its initial arsenal of scientific instruments.”

The Sun is a plasma laboratory right on our doorstep. Everyone is familiar with aurorae, for instance, which show the influence of solar activity on Earth - a consequence of energy and small particles released by the Sun interacting with our planet’s magnetic field. Similar to weather forecasts on Earth, it should be possible to predict the geomagnetic disturbances caused by energy eruptions on the Sun responsible for these beautiful aurorae - which can also have other unwelcoming implications. Space weather refers to the changing conditions in space, driven by the Sun’s behavior, that affect Earth and space-based technologies. On our increasingly technological Earth, sudden solar storms can cause devastating damage to critical infrastructure, and disable large portions of the electrical power grid, communications networks, or space systems.

“The Inouye Solar Telescope was designed to study the underlying physics of the Sun as the driver of space weather. In pursuing this goal, the Inouye is an ideal platform for an unprecedented and pioneering instrument like the VTF,” said Christoph Keller, NSO Director.

In order to access the necessary measurements to make crucial predictions a reality, we need cutting-edge instruments manufactured with atomic precision. The pioneering image spectro-polarimeter VTF is an example of the necessary technological leaps needed to increase our ability to produce reliable space weather predictions. 

More information can be found online at www.nso.edu.

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About the U.S. NSF Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope

The U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope is operated by the NSF National Solar Observatory (NSO), a federally funded research and development center focused on solar research, under management by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA). The Inouye and NSO are funded by NSF through a cooperative agreement with AURA. The Inouye Solar Telescope is located on land of spiritual and cultural significance to Native Hawaiian people. The use of this important site to further scientific knowledge is done so with appreciation and respect. For more information, visit www.nso.edu.

The Inouye is the largest solar telescope in the world. With a focus on understanding the Sun’s explosive behavior, observations of magnetic fields are at the forefront of this innovative telescope. A combination of an off-axis design, to reduce scattered light, and cutting-edge polarimetery produces the first ongoing measurements of the magnetic fields in the Sun’s corona. The Inouye’s 4-meter mirror provides views of the solar atmosphere like we have never seen before. Focusing on small observing changes, the cutting-edge instrument suite gathers unprecedented images from the Sun’s surface to the lower solar atmosphere. The Inouye Solar Telescope reveals features three times smaller than anything we can see on the Sun today, and does so multiple times a second. Not only do the world-class instruments and optical assembly allow spectacular imagery, but also have incredible spectroscopic capabilities. Observing the specific fingerprints of hundreds of atoms and ions throughout the solar surface and atmosphere will help us explain the dynamic nature of the Sun’s behavior. 

About the Institut für Sonnenphysik (Institute for Solar Physics)

The Institut für Sonnenphysik (KIS) is a state and federally funded research facility located in the city of Freiburg in the south of Germany. Its scientific focus is astronomy and astrophysics with a particular interest in solar physics. The main pillars are fundamental research, operations of the German solar telescope infrastructure on Tenerife (Spain), scientific instrument development, and science data infrastructure. Furthermore, the institute is strongly engaged in the education of students of all levels at Freiburg University.

The mission of the institute is to advance scientific knowledge of the Sun, stars, and their space environments by developing state-of-the-art theories and instrumentation for the largest ground-based solar telescopes at the frontier of what is scientifically and technically feasible, and by providing the global solar physics community with access to these developments. The latest achievement was the successful development of the VTF for the Inouye Solar Telescope.

To advance the understanding of the sun, a wealth of science-ready data will be generated and interpreted through observations performed on ground-based solar telescopes, their instruments and sophisticated data analysis methods and pipelines developed at KIS. The aim is to convey this field of research, which is important for the understanding of the effect of solar activity on space weather and thus on Earth, also to young researchers and to the general public. Along those lines, the institute also develops and provides access points to calibrated observational data for scientific research for free.

About the U.S. NSF National Solar Observatory

The mission of the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) National Solar Observatory (NSO) is to advance knowledge of the Sun, both as an astronomical object and as the dominant external influence on Earth, by providing forefront observational opportunities to the research community. The mission includes the operation of cutting edge facilities, the continued development of advanced instrumentation both in-house and through partnerships, conducting solar research, and educational and public outreach. NSO is managed by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy (AURA) under a cooperative agreement with NSF.




The Visible Tunable Filter’s (VTF) etalon, pictured here, consists of two reflecting plates, employed for measuring small differences in the flux of light for different wavelengths using the interference it produces. The size of the etalon, and its extreme high surface quality, are unique and unprecedented. The VTF was designed and built by the Institut für Sonnenphysik (KIS) in Freiburg, Germany, and has now been integrated into the Inouye Solar Telescope in Maui, HI - where it recently successfully saw first light.


Credit

KIS





NSO and KIS engineers and scientists work on the Visible Tunable Filter (VTF) inside the Coudé Lab at the Inouye Solar Telescope, preparing the instrument for its first light. The VTF is early in its technical testing phase, and the early images it produced are impressive. The data is expected to improve with the arrival of the second etalon, after which the instrument will subsequently enter its commissioning phase. Eventually, during scientific operations, extensive data processing and resolution will realize its full potential.


Credit

NSF/NSO/AURA




The Visible Tunable Filter (VTF), pictured center in the Inouye Solar Telescope’s instrument lab, is the new centerpiece of the telescope’s scientific instrument suite. The VTF has successfully connected to the Inouye’s light path, and following proper alignment and calibration, has achieved its first light observations.

Credit
NSF/NSO/AURA



Near the summit of Maui’s Haleakalā, the NSF Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope - and its set of cutting-edge solar instruments, such as the Visible Tunable Filter - is set to pave the way for a deeper understanding of our home star.


Credit
NSF/NSO/AURA



A narrow-band image of the Sun at a wavelength of λ=588.9nm - that of a well known solar sodium line also known as the “NaD line.” The image was acquired during recent first light efforts with the VTF at the Inouye, and shows how precisely the structures within a sunspot are resolved - and imply how thoroughly they can be examined by combining all data (image, spectroscopy, and polarimetry) available from the VTF. Each pixel in the original version of the image corresponds to 10 km (or 6.2 miles) on the Sun.


Credit
VTF/KIS/NSF/NSO/AURA

Research update: Plant-based calamari that rivals real seafood in texture




American Chemical Society
Research update: Plant-based calamari that rivals real seafood in texture 

image: 

After this 3D-printed calamari mimic (top image) is battered and deep-fried (bottom image), its look and texture is like squid rings cooked the same way.

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Credit: Adapted from ACS Food Science & Technology 2025, DOI: 10.1021/acsfoodscitech.4c00852





Plant-based seafood alternatives should have similar flavors, textures and nutritional content to the foods they mimic. And recreating the properties of fried calamari rings, which have a neutral flavor and a firm, chewy texture after being cooked, has been a challenge. Building off previous research, a team publishing in ACS Food Science & Technology describes successfully using plant-based ingredients to mimic calamari that matches the real seafood’s characteristic softness and elasticity.

Previously, Poornima Vijayan, Dejian Huang and colleagues presented air-fried vegan calamari rings made from a 3D-printed paste of microalgae and mung bean proteins at ACS Fall 2023, a meeting of the American Chemical Society. When the researchers air-fried the calamari mimic (demonstrated in this short video), it had an acceptable taste, but they noted that the texture wasn’t ideal. So, now they’ve optimized the recipe and printing parameters, improving the plant-based product’s texture so that it’s more like real calamari when battered and deep-fried — the way most calamari is prepared.

The researchers tested multiple versions of their printable paste recipe, varying the amounts of mung bean protein isolate, powdered light-yellow microalgae, gellan gum (thickener) and canola oil (fat). A food-grade 3D printer deposited the pastes into layered rings about 1.8 inches wide (4.5 centimeters). Unlike the original research, this time the researchers froze the rings overnight and then battered and quickly deep-fried them.

In lab tests, the researchers analyzed properties related to the cooked samples’ chewiness, including hardness, springiness and cohesiveness. The deep-fried product with the textural properties closest to real calamari contained 1.5% gellan gum, 2% canola oil and 10% powdered microalgae. From microscope images, the researchers saw that small voids in the structure of these plant-based samples modified their softness, so they resembled the real seafood counterpart. Additionally, an analysis of the protein content in the optimal recipe found that the plant-based version could have more protein (19%) than the reported protein composition of squid (14%).

“This research showcases the potential of 3D printing to transform sustainable plant proteins like mung bean and microalgae into seafood analogs with comparable texture,” says Vijayan, the study’s lead author. “Our next steps involve understanding consumer acceptance and scaling formulation for broader applications.”

The authors acknowledge funding from the National University of Singapore and the Commonwealth Research Scholarship. This research is supported by the National Research Foundation, Prime Minister’s Office, Singapore under its Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise (CREATE) programme. CREATE is an international collaboratory housing research centres set up by top universities. At CREATE, researchers from diverse disciplines and backgrounds work closely together to perform cutting-edge research in strategic areas of interest, for translation into practical applications leading to positive economic and societal outcomes for Singapore. The interdisciplinary research centres at CREATE focus on four areas of interdisciplinary thematic areas of research, namely human systems, energy systems, environmental systems and urban systems. More information on the CREATE programme can be obtained from www.create.edu.sg.

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Oil Markets Are Bracing for Another External Shock

Oil markets are bracing for the next big external shock as Trump's trade war with China continues to escalate and talks of a potential nuclear deal with Iran threaten to bring fresh supply to markets.


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- The start of trade negotiations between the United States and Asia Pacific countries has been marked by evident interest in US LNG projects, whilst the likes of South Korea and Japan kept relatively mum about crude. 

- Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te announced that Taipei would seek to increase the share of US LNG imports from the current 10% to 33%, potentially discontinuing some term supplies from Australia and Qatar.

- South Korea, too, is considering a 20-25% increase in US LNG imports, currently accounting for 12% of its liquefied gas needs, seeking to wind down Qatari contractual commitments that are linked to Brent rather than traded against JKM or Henry Hub. 

- China is moving in the opposite direction, completely halting its imports of US LNG in March and signing three long-term deals with the UAE for the supply of liquefied gas over the next 10 years, seeking further term options in the region. 

Market Movers

- US investor James Cameron has offered $5 billion to buy Kazakhstan’s mining giant Eurasian Resources Group, 40% part-owned by the Kazakh government, as the miner intends to expand into rare earths.

- UK energy firm BP (NYSE:BP) has become the only foreign oil company to bid in India’s OALP-IX bidding round, landing the most coveted GS-OSHP block alongside Indian partners Reliance and ONGC. 

- US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) is reportedly looking to divest some of its upstream interests in Angola, potentially exiting Block 14K that currently produces some 42,000 b/day across Angola and Congo.

- Argentina’s second-largest oil company, Vista Energy (NYSE:VIST), bought Petronas’ 50% stake in the La Amarga Chica shale play in the country’s Vaca Muerta basin for a total of $1.5 billion.

Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Oil producers are preparing for another external shock to oil markets as Brent futures took some collateral damage from Monday’s equity sell-off and remain pressured by the prospect of a potential US-Iran nuclear deal. For the time being, the $66-67 per barrel price for ICE Brent seems to be a temporary resting place for crude before the next big thing happens.

Rome Hosts High-Level Nuclear Talks. Negotiators from the United States and Iran met in Italy’s capital, Rome, over the weekend to continue negotiations started a week ago in Oman over Tehran’s nuclear programme, with both sides lauding the progress the talks had made over the past week.

US Wants to Make the Gulf Great Again. As the US Bureau of Ocean Energy Management recently upped the Gulf of America’s untapped reserves to 5.77 billion barrels, the Trump administration has launched a new 5-year offshore oil and gas leasing plan, which might include blocks in the Arctic.

Gold Continues to Edge Higher. Amidst widespread speculation of Donald Trump wanting to fire US Fed chair Jerome Powell, gold prices touched $3,500 per ounce for the first time on record in Tuesday’s intraday trading, up 32% since the beginning of the year.

China Loads Up On Middle Eastern LNG. China’s state-controlled oil majors CNOOC and Zhenhua Oil, as well as privately owned ENN Natural Gas, have all signed term deals with the UAE’s state oil company ADNOC, ranging from 5 to 15 years and coming into effect as early as 2026.

Egypt’s Hyped Exploration Boom Fails. An array of international energy firms have exited their respective concessions in Egypt’s offshore zone in the Red Sea after US oil firm Chevron relinquished its stake in Block 1, with rumours also suggesting Shell is set to give up on the adjacent Block 3.

P66 Fights Back Against Activist Investor. Leading US refiner Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) has issued a letter demanding that activist investor Elliott Investment Management back down from its push to break up the company due to a conflict of interest, as it is separately seeking to buy distressed Citgo. 

India Slaps Tariffs on Chinese Steel. The government of India announced a 12% tariff on some steel imports from China that would be valid for the next 200 days, arguing that a flood of cheaper Chinese steel products put domestic mills under immense pressure and forced job cuts.

South Korea Dreams Big to Impress Trump. South Korea’s leading steel manufacturer, Posco Holdings (NYSE:PKX), is reportedly planning to join its peer, Hyundai Motor Group (KRX:005380), to build a $5.8 billion steel mill in the US, expected to start operations in 2029 in Louisiana.

Using Oil, Russia Seeks to Stay in Syria. The ouster of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has led to a complete halt in Iranian oil deliveries to the Levantine nation. In its stead, Damascus has opted for Russian crude and diesel deliveries as Moscow wants to keep its Tartus naval base. 

China’s Copper Grows Despite Low Profits. Chinese production of refined copper surged to 1.25 million tonnes in March, up 8.6% from a year ago and hitting a new all-time monthly high, with minimal profitability somewhat cushioned by higher gold prices, a co-product of copper smelting.

Saudi Aramco Eyes Automotive Roles. Saudi Aramco, the national oil firm of Saudi Arabia, inked a deal with China’s leading EV producer BYD (SHE:002594) to develop new energy vehicle technologies, seeking to benefit from the proliferation of battery-powered cars across Asia.

Heavy Rains Resuscitate Rhine Shipping. Easter precipitation has finally allowed German shippers to transport full cargoes along the River Rhine, the country’s main energy transportation artery, with water levels in Kaub rising by 40% to 125cm.

Morocco to Build an LNG Import Terminal. The North African country of Morocco is preparing to begin tendering procedures for its first-ever liquefaction terminal, to be located in the port of Nador, as its gas requirements are expected to soar from 1 Bcm currently to 8 Bcm by 2027.

By Michael Kern for Oilprice.com

 

Drill, Baby, Drill... But for Water

  • Water scarcity is emerging as a major constraint for resource industries.

  • Satellite data reveals long-term declines in global water storage capacity, especially in dry regions like the U.S. Southwest.

  • Water is becoming an investable commodity, with increasing demand from agriculture, industry, and even data centers.

A while ago, in a article about investment opportunities, we concluded that water was the new oil, the commodity that would provide one of the the best returns in the future. A bit hyperbolic, maybe? But there is another aspect of water relevant to resource industries, namely that its scarcity will inhibit or raise costs of resource development, including that of oil and gas.

Take fracking, which made America’s petroleum industry great again. It requires large quantities of water. And after the fracking, the drillers have to do something with the frack-produced water, which now contains chemicals and other pollutants. They can reuse some of it for more fracking, but what about the rest? How much treatment will it require to spray on fields, to drink, or to return to the aquifer? How much will treatment cost? The debate on that may, to some, read like something out of Ibsen’s “Enemy of the People,” a play we suspect is not often produced in the Oil Patch. There is, however, still another issue, beyond polluted water.  Many frackers operate in dry regions with diminishing underground water supplies, and that, we suspect, will become a growing issue in the oil business.

But you knew all that. What attracted our attention were two journal articles. One (by Islam, et. al., Science, 14 March 2025)  examined the water requirements for the production of 38 minerals. It predicted that water needs for the production of key minerals would exceed sustainable water supplies. In the case of copper, 37% of production is in places where it already “exceeds available water capacity.” There is some good news, though. Coal demand will taper off, making its water supplies available. But the bad news is that saving water here is not the same as making water available there, because we can’t economically move surplus water from a closed coal mine in Germany to a copper mine in Chile. The article, being focused on resource use, though, does not even consider the voracious water consumption of data centers. You may remember the old song about how the farmer and the cowman should be friends. Nowadays, the farmer and the data center owner won’t be friends once they get started arguing about water. 

The second article (by Seo, et.al.,Science, 28 March 2025) provides evidence from satellite surveys  that, global warming and long droughts have reduced terrestrial water storage and may have irreversibly reduced water storage capacity in the soil. The big decline seems to have begun in 2000. Both articles show most stress or damage in the American Southwest, and over parts of the Ogallala Aquifer. In other words, the Oil Patch. If these studies are even half correct, water will become increasingly scarce in those regions for purposes other agriculture and human consumption. 

This brings us back to our original bullish investment thesis on water. A rising population needs more of the product. The industry, to maintain operations or grow, needs more products. Supply of product remains steady, globally, but pollution and changing climate make the available supply less dependable on a regional basis. On the plus side, nobody claims that the product is destroying the world, shadowy foreign cartels do not control its price, and nobody, so far, has cried “hoax” when shortages require action. The American Society of Civil Engineers said that water-related spending in the USA was way below what was required, and they made their estimate several years before this new information came along. Our conclusion: if you need water to operate, don’t take it for granted that you can get it, and if you have the money and the assets (expertise in hydrology, geology, construction, pipelines, operation of large installations, and capital for long term investment) move in before the action. Drill, baby, drill. But for what?

By Leonard Hyman and William Tilles for Oilprice.com

Turkey Eyes Oil & Gas Exploration In Bulgaria, Iraq And Libya

  • Turkey is pursuing oil and gas exploration in Bulgaria, Iraq, and Libya
  • Ankara aims to boost domestic production and become a key energy hub linking East and West.

  • Turkey’s energy strategy includes influence in post-conflict Libya and potential pipeline links through Syria.

Turkey is currently in talks to explore for oil and gas in Bulgaria, with similar plans for exploration in Iraq and Libya, Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has revealed. According to the minister, state-owned energy company Turkiye Petrolleri AO (TPAO) will sign an agreement with an unnamed foreign partner within the next month to conduct exploration in Bulgaria’s section of the Black Sea. 

Turkey not only wants to boost domestic oil and gas production, but also harbors ambitions to become a regional energy hub. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an has been trying to position Turkey as an energy hub, connecting natural gas producers to its east and south with markets to the west. The country’s strategic geographical position and infrastructure give it an advantage in this regard.

Turkey and Bulgaria signed a deal in 2023 to permit Bulgaria’s state-owned Bulgargaz to import 1.85 billion cubic meters of gas per year-- good for ~60% of Bulgaria's annual demand--through the Strandzha-Malkoclar interconnection border point with Turkey. Bulgargaz has to pay a €2 billion service fee to Turkish gas firm Bota? over a 13-year period, regardless of whether it makes use of this capacity. According to Bayraktar, the capacity to export via Bulgaria right now is only around 3.5 billion cubic meters a year but capabilities can be boosted. 

What we need is an increase in the capacity of the interconnection between Turkey and Bulgaria”, which currently can only receive about half of the amount of seven billion cubic meters per year that, from a technical point of view, Turkey can provide it,” Bayraktar told Bloomberg.

But Libya is probably Erdogan’s biggest gamble, that is just as much about power and influence as it is about energy.

After more than a decade of instability, Libya is expanding oil production, despite extreme political fragility that has analysts increasingly worried about a return to civil war.

According to Chairman of Libya’s National Oil Corporation Masoud Sulaiman, Libya plans to increase oil output from 1.4 mb/d currently to 2 mb/d in 2028. However, ramping output to that level will require considerable capital outlays: Abdulsadek estimates that Libya needs between $3 billion and $4 billion to reach its intermediate goal of oil production rate of 1.6 mb/d, adding that a new license bidding round is expected to be approved by the cabinet. The Libyan economy relies heavily on oil, with fossil fuels accounting for more than 95% of its economic output.

Last year, Turkey announced that it was prepared to significantly increase natural gas exports to the European Union, desperate to further wean itself off Russian gas. In order to do that, the most likely route is to re-export Azeri natural gas from Turkey. That, in turn, would require Turkey to take in more Russian gas to make up for the shortfall. Ankara is keen to play the role of savior and boost its leverage with respect to Brussels, but it wants some demand guarantees before it starts spending on the necessary infrastructure. The Trans-Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline, which forms part of the Southern Gas Corridor bringing Azerbaijani gas to Europe, is a strategic advantage for Turkey. The country is also home to five LNG terminals, seven gas pipelines, three floating storage units, and two underground storage facilities, as well as considerable excess import capacity that could be used for trading.

On the other hand, over the past couple of years, Europe has been trying to secure alternative gas supplies to replace Russian gas transiting through Ukraine. Russian gas stopped flowing to EU states via Ukraine after a five-year deal expired on January 1 2025, marking the end of a decades-long arrangement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky declared that his country would not allow Russia to "earn additional billions on our blood", with a cross-section of leaders describing it as yet"another victory" against Moscow.

Russia can still send gas to Hungary, Turkey and Serbia through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea. Azerbaijan’s natural gas sold to Turkey could be re-exported to Europe, possibly through Bulgaria, but not without effort and expense. In an interview with Bloomberg,  Bayraktar pushed hard for a Bulgaria route, noting a potential for increasing volumes to the EU up to 10 billion cubic meters per year, while sending a clear message to Brussels: It won’t happen without some demand guarantees.

Turkey’s ambitions to become a leading energy hub in Europe also gathered momentum after the sudden collapse of the 54-year Assad dynasty in Syria. Turkish companies are well-placed to secure major contracts should Syria transform into a free market, with the cost of reconstruction estimated at $400 billion. Turkey could construct a gas pipeline to the west of Syria and connect to the Arab Gas Pipeline network (which links Syria, Jordan, and Egypt). This would help Turkey to offer regional gas producers such as Israel and Egypt a more commercially viable route to European markets compared to current LNG alternatives. 

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

 

New Trade Rules Set to Disrupt Global Air Freight

  • The air cargo industry is projected to lose billions in revenue due to new US tariffs and the end of tariff exemptions for low-value parcels from China and Hong Kong.

  • Small online sellers with direct-to-consumer fulfillment models are particularly vulnerable to the new trade rules, which increase costs and create customs clearance challenges.

  • The changes in US trade policy are expected to significantly reduce air freight demand and alter the dynamics of global e-commerce shipping.


U.S. plans next month to cancel tariff-free access for low-value parcel shipments from China and Hong Kong, coupled with a new 145% tariff rate on Chinese imports, could bleed more than $22 billion in revenue from the air cargo sector over three years and put thousands of online sellers with direct-to-consumer fulfillment models out of business, according to an e-commerce and logistics consulting firm. 

Derek Lossing, the founder of Cirrus Global Advisors, has previously said the Trump administration’s recent trade actions against China would “decimate” air cargo out of China because demand for products on the Temu and Shein platforms would plummet. His Seattle-based consultancy has now quantified the downstream effects of the changes on the air cargo sector. 

The Cirrus Global Advisors model shows the airfreight industry revenue could contract $22 billion if the White House maintains tariffs at 125% for a substantial period of time, based on assumptions about lower consumer demand, excess airline capacity and downward pressure on yields. Large cargo airlines and freighter forwarders, like Atlas Air and Kuehne+Nagel subsidiary Apex Logistics, with heavy exposure to large Chinese marketplaces, as well as Amazon and smaller online brands, are expected to experience downward pressure on revenues, Losing said in a phone interview.

The estimate was made before the U.S. clarified that China tariff rate was actually 145%, to include a previous tariff, but it’s unclear if the higher rate would further drag down industry revenue.

E-commerce shipments account for an estimated 50% to 60% of China-U.S. air volumes and an estimated 20% of global air cargo volumes, according to logistics providers and the International Air Transport Association. Experts agree that dozens of widebody freighters are dedicated to hauling e-commerce shipments across the Pacific each day from China, but Lossing said he believes an estimate of 100 such aircraft by Netherlands-based consultant Rotate is high.

Total air cargo revenue on the China-U.S. trade lane will decrease more than 30% because of the lower volumes caused by the new U.S. trade policies and the lower yields that will follow, Lossing, a former Amazon logistics executive, predicted. 

When the Biden administration last fall proposed tighter rules for a subset of Chinese goods to qualify for de minimis, a program that allows the duty and tax-free entry of shipments with an aggregate value of $800 or less per person, per day, Cirrus Global Advisors estimated the impact to global air cargo revenue at $3 billion over three years. The estimate for revenue loss has steadily increased with Trump’s aggressive posturing against China before and after his inauguration, culminating with a complete ban of all Chinese goods from duty-free treatment, effective May 2. Starting next Friday, retailers will need to file formal customs entries, which require much more information and time than the fast-track de minimis process, to clear individual shipments

U.S. Customs and Border Protection says lax data requirements for de minimis shipments makes it difficult to screen for entry of illicit and unsafe goods. Trump canceled de minimis on the grounds that it enables smuggling of the opioid fentanyl and cheap imports that undercut U.S. retailers and manufacturers. 

Limiting de minimis when tariffs were relatively low was mostly considered an inconvenience for large Chinese marketplaces like Temu, Shein and Alibaba because their prices are so low consumers likely wouldn’t change their shopping habits if a piece of clothing increased in price by $2 or $3. But the imposition of 145% tariffs has blown up the model of fulfilling orders in China and shipping them by air directly to the customer’s residence, which was cheaper and faster than shipping in bulk by ocean to a U.S. warehouse for pick, pack and delivery. 

Temu, a hugely popular market for cheap goods, and fast-fashion brand Shein last week notified customers on their websites that they will raise prices starting April 25 in response to new trade rules and rising tariffs. The South China Morning Post reported that Temu has already sharply reduced online advertising in the U.S. Despite this, both sites have seen a spike in orders recently as shoppers try to get goods before the tariffs kick in. 

In addition to higher prices from tariffs, digital markets could lose sales as new customs clearance requirements create friction for customers during checkout, Lossing predicted Friday on LinkedIn.

“How comfortable will U.S. online consumers be to provide more, personal sensitive information to shop on a Chinese website, to facilitate a customs declaration for a B2C shipment,” he wrote. If e-commerce hassles and privacy concerns deter consumers from completing purchases the decline in cross-border parcel volumes and air cargo revenues could be even greater than currently forecast.

The Cirrus model, like others, assumes that the steep drop in China e-commerce shipments to the U.S. will significantly reduce demand for freighter aircraft. Airlines will respond by accelerating the retirement of older aircraft and relocating assets to other markets, resulting in excess capacity there and lower average freight rates. The degree to which express carriers and freighter operators reduce flight schedules or remove aircraft from China service will depend on how much consumers pullback from shopping. 

And If the European Commission follows through on intentions to remove the de minimis exemption for goods valued below $170 and impose a customs handling fee on individual B2C packages the harm to cross-border e-commerce players, including all-cargo airlines, could be severe, Losing told FreightWaves. 

“That’s kind of the one-two punch that actually would potentially push the revenue loss for air cargo over our current estimate,” he said. 

And the potential damage to the industry could spread if the Trump administration, as threatened, eliminates de minimis benefits across all nations once systems are in place to collect tariffs from millions of extra shipments per day. But the harm could also be less severe if the President follows a pattern of quickly undoing policy pronouncements and relaxes the tariffs or de minimis rules.

Small online sellers at high risk

The crackdown on Chinese e-commerce shipments poses an existential threat for many small-and-medium e-tailers with storefronts selling goods directly from China, as well as logistics providers that handle customs clearance and last-mile delivery for B2C shippers, said Lossing.

Large Chinese marketplaces were already preparing for more restrictive de minimis rules by building millions of square feet of U.S. warehouses the past couple of years to support a more traditional B2B2C fulfillment model, logistics executives said. Temu, for example, will consign goods to its U.S. entity, clear them via a formal customs entry, pay duty and truck them to a fulfillment center, where they will be stored, picked, packed and delivered.

Another reason for consolidating air or ocean shipments on one customs entry is to reduce the cost for customs brokerage and merchandise processing fees paid to the government per shipment. The cost for customs brokers to file entries will shoot up from 10 cents to $3 per package once the special de minimis pathway is eliminated. 

The National Foreign Trade Council calculates that without de minimis the average $50 package would require about $31 in paperwork, a brokerage fee of $20, plus tariffs and taxes, which would more than double the delivery cost.

In addition to significantly higher import costs, air shipments are expected to take longer for CBP to process under the standard entry process. 

Lossing said there are tens of thousands of small companies in China that sell on Amazon and other platforms that won’t be able to pay the 145% tariff and don’t have the resources to use a traditional containerized export model. And many customers will switch to countries like Vietnam, where tariffs are lower, for their online orders. 

He shot down arguments that the direct-to-consumer model for e-commerce from China is still viable because it allows merchants to defer tariffs until the actual time of sale versus paying them at a U.S. port of entry and it avoids the risk of having cash tied up in unsold inventory while paying for warehousing. 

On LinkedIn he challenged the assertion on Bloomberg Television by Izzy Rosenzweig, CEO of e-commerce logistics provider Portless, that the benefits of fulfilling individual orders from China to U.S. residents still made economic sense. Rosenzweig said Shein has plenty of margin to absorb higher import costs, while Temu’s goal is to fulfill 80% of its orders in the domestic U.S. 

“There are some pretty significant data points that show that the China D2C model will not survive at these tariff rates and de minimis closure. I guess only time will tell what happens….The only upside we see for the China-US e-commerce model is air freight rates are set to drop 30%-40% on the trade lane, bringing the cost per parcel down over $1 per unit,” Lossing posted.

Aaron Rubin, founder and CEO of ShipHero, a warehouse management software provider for e-commerce brands, said on LinkedIn that FedEx is charging an additional 45 cents per pound on airfreight from China because so many companies are running sales to liquidate their Chinese products for de minimis expires on May 2.

New tariffs, higher shipping rates and customer friction together “will force all companies to create and implement B2B2C clearance models because asking for sensitive customer information at checkout is a nail in the coffin” for direct-to-consumer fulfillment, Lossing said on LinkedIn. 

By Zerohedge.com