Thursday, June 26, 2025

  

NATO’s 5% Pledge: An Obscene Betrayal of Global Needs


No to NATO protest at The Hague, June 22, 2025. Photo credit: Xinhua News

At this week’s NATO summit in The Hague, leaders announced an alarming new goal: push military spending to 5% of nations’ GDP by 2035. Framed as a response to rising global threats, particularly from Russia and terrorism, the declaration was hailed as a historic step. But in truth, it represents a major step backward—away from addressing the urgent needs of people and the planet, and toward an arms race that will impoverish societies while enriching weapons contractors.

This outrageous 5% spending target didn’t come out of nowhere—it’s the direct result of years of bullying by Donald Trump. During his first term, Trump repeatedly berated NATO members for not spending enough on their militaries, pressuring them to meet a 2% GDP threshold that was already controversial and so excessive that nine NATO countries still fall below that “target”.

Now, with Trump back in the White House, NATO leaders are falling in line, setting a staggering 5% target that even the United States—already spending over $1 trillion a year on its military—doesn’t reach. This is not defense; it’s extortion on a global scale, pushed by a president who views diplomacy as a shakedown and war as good business.

Countries across Europe and North America are already slashing public services, yet they are now expected to divert even more taxpayer money into war preparations. Currently, no NATO country spends more on the military than on health or education. But if they all meet the new 5% military spending goal, 21 of them would spend more on weapons than on schools.

Spain was one of the few to reject this escalation, with Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez making clear that his government would not sacrifice pensions and social programs to meet a militarized spending target. Other governments, including those of Belgium and Slovakia, quietly pushed back as well.

Still, NATO leaders pressed on, cheered by Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who fawned over Donald Trump’s demand that Europe boost defense spending. Rutte even referred to Trump as “Daddy,” a comment that—while dismissed as a joke—spoke volumes about NATO’s subservience to U.S. militarism. Under Trump’s influence, the alliance is shedding even the pretense of being a defensive pact, embracing instead the language and logic of perpetual war.

Just before NATO leaders were gathering at the Hague, protesters took to the streets under the banner “No to NATO.” And back in their home countries, civic groups are demanding a redirection of resources toward climate justice, healthcare, and peace. Polls show that majorities in the U.S. oppose increased military spending, but NATO is not accountable to the people. It’s accountable to political elites, arms manufacturers, and a Cold War logic that sees every global development through the lens of threat and domination.

NATO’s expansion, both in terms of war spending and size (it has grown from 12 founding members to 32 countries today), has not brought peace. On the contrary. The alliance’s promise that Ukraine would one day join its ranks was one of the triggers for Russia’s brutal war, and instead of de-escalating, the alliance has doubled down with weapons, not diplomacy. In Gaza, Israel continues its U.S.-backed war with impunity, while NATO nations send more arms and offer no serious push for peace. Now the alliance wants to drain public coffers to sustain these wars indefinitely. NATO is also surrounding its adversaries, particularly Russia, with ever more bases and troops.

All of this demands a radical rethink. As the world burns—literally—NATO is stocking up on kindling. When healthcare systems are crumbling, schools are underfunded, and blazing temperatures are making large swaths of the planet uninhabitable, the idea that governments should commit billions more to weapons and war is obscene. Real security doesn’t come from tanks and missiles—it comes from strong communities, global cooperation, and urgent action on our shared crises.

We need to flip the script. That means cutting military budgets, withdrawing from endless wars, and beginning a serious conversation about dismantling NATO. The alliance, born of the Cold War, is now a stumbling block to global peace and an active participant in war-making. Its latest summit only reinforces that reality.

This is not just about NATO’s budget—it’s about our future. Every euro or dollar spent on weapons is one not spent on confronting the climate crisis, lifting people out of poverty, or building a peaceful world. For the future of our planet, we must reject NATO and the war economy.

Medea Benjamin is the co-founder of the women-led peace group CODEPINK and co-founder of the human rights group Global Exchange. She is the author of 11 books, including War in Ukraine: Making Sense of a Senseless Conflict, coauthored with Nicolas J.S. Davies. Her most recent book, coauthored with David Swanson, is NATO: What You Need to KnowRead other articles by Medea.

LONG READ: NATO summit in The Hague is all about the money, not about Ukraine

LONG READ: Nato summit in The Hague is all about the money, not about Ukraine
This year's Nato summit in The Hague will be almost all about the money, and almost not about Ukraine and its existential war with Russia. / bne IntelliNews


By Ben Aris in Berlin June 24, 2025

The collected membership of Nato meets in The Hague on June 25 for a cutdown version of the annual gathering, where Ukraine has been dropped from the agenda and the only thing that will be discussed is increasing defence spending to 5% of GDP, at US insistence.

Three months ago, Secretary of State Marco Rubio attended a ministerial meeting in Brussels with a clear message: the 5% demand was not a joke. After some initial pushback, desperate to keep the US security umbrella open, every one of the 32 members has agreed to the increase that must be met by 2035, except Spain and Slovakia.

The White House is dominating the agenda at the meeting and has forced several compromises. The increase will be divided into 3.5% for "hard defence, 1.5% for infrastructure/cybersecurity, with the US hoping the bulk of the hard spending will go on US-made weapons. Participants at the ministerial meeting later revealed, off the record, that Rubio had warned the partners: either they accept the US demand or Trump will reduce the American military presence in Europe.

In 2024, European Nato members together spent nearly $500bn on defence, or 2% of their combined GDP. An increase to 3% would mean an additional $250bn annually. Up to half of that could go directly towards weapons and ammunition.

In addition to the cash infusion, the Alliance has prepared a classified document on "capability targets", which also calls for large increases in the number of brigades and key weapon systems each Nato member must possess for effective collective defence.

The new strategy outlines the requirements for core defence capacities, including the scale of air and missile defence systems, the number of long-range weapons held by allies, an increase from the 80 brigades Nato currently maintains and key logistics parameters. Currently, Nato operates under capability targets approved in 2021, prior to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

For instance, Germany currently has 20% fewer brigades than its 2021 requirement. The new document presented to ministers in June now proposes a much larger increase in European armies – the target may rise to 130 brigades. European Nato armies may need to nearly double in size.

Another major challenge is the limited capacity of Europe’s defence industry. As bne IntelliNews reported, despite the outbreak of a major traditional large-scale war in its backyard, Europe have failed to sign off on the long-term contracts defence companies need to invest into new production. Despite entering the fourth year of full-scale war on its borders, Europe still hasn’t scaled up enough to meet demand from European defence ministries. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen admitted in her ReArm speech (video) earlier this year that Russia is now outproducing all of the EU and Ukraine combined.

Article 5

Trump once again refused to give a clear US commitment to Nato’s Article 5 — the alliance’s collective defence clause — as he departed for the meeting in The Hague on June 24.

Pressed by reporters as he boarded Air Force One on whether the US would come to Nato members’ defence if they were attacked, he replied, “It depends on your definition of Article 5,” adding, "There’s numerous definitions of Article 5. You know that, right? But I’m committed to being their friends, you know, I’ve become friends with many of those leaders, and I’m committed to helping them."

Trump has previously expressed scepticism about honouring the collective defence commitment, linking it to how much member states had spent on defence and suggesting those that the US would not protect those who had spent less than 2$ of GDP on defence.

"I’m committed to saving lives. I care about life and safety," he added saying he would explain his position in full once at the summit: "I’ll give you an exact definition when I get there — I just don’t want to do it from the back of a plane,” The Kyiv Independent reports.

Ukraine’s downgrade

The meeting will be much reduced compared to previous summits after all the events other than the welcome dinner in the castle of the Dutch royal family and a single two-hour discussion on spending the next day. In particular, the Ukraine-Nato council meeting to discuss the conflict with Russia has been cancelled and Ukrainian President Zelenskiy has only been invited to the dinner, not the plenary session, Ukrainska Pravda reports.

In place of the Ukraine-Nato council meeting, Zelenskiy is due to have a meeting with Rutte and the leaders of the so-called European Five (E5) countries – France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the United Kingdom. Italy is a new addition to the top four leaders of the coalition of the willing (CoW4) that has taken the lead in Europe in supporting Ukraine.

Initially, Ukraine was not invited to attend the summit at all, but was reinstated at the instance of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Some uncertainty surrounded the participation of Zelenskiy, who is now due to attend, but it remains unclear whether he will meet with US President Donald Trump, who is also due to attend. The two presidents were scheduled to meet at the recent G7 summit in Canada, but Trump skipped out early, cancelling his meeting with Zelenskiy.

The members have also decided to forego the traditional joint statement and will only release a single paged statement after the meeting. While the US is insisting on an increase in spending to 5% of GDP, up from the previous 2% commitment adopted in 2014 at the Welsh Nato summit, nominally to meet a growing threat of attack by Russia, all mentions of Russia have been downgraded in the draft version of the final statement. The draft does label Russia as a "threat" to Euro-Atlantic security but refrains from designating it as an "aggressor" for waging a war in Ukraine – language the White House has shown itself particularly adverse to.

Responding to the Russian threat

While the White House is playing down any threat from Russia, Rutte has put the growing threat from Russia and China at the heart of the rationale for increasing spending on defence.

“Russia has brought war back to Europe and has teamed up with China, North Korea and Iran to reshape the global order. Together, they are expanding their militaries and their capabilities,” Rutte said in an opinion piece for Foreign Policy calling for a stronger Nato. “Russia is reconstituting its forces with Chinese technology and producing weapons faster than we thought it could.”

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is also pushing for more spending to meet the same threat. She warned in her ReArm speech (video) that Russia is currently outproducing all the EU and Ukraine combined and that Europe needs to re-equip itself urgently. This year alone Russia will roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armoured vehicles and 200 Iskander missiles and could be able to challenge Nato directly within five years, says Rutte. Europe will need to boost its weapons production by 400% to effectively deter Russia, analysts say.

The Nato boss also singled out China as a threat, which he accused of becoming “decisive in enabling Russia’s war against Ukraine and supporting Russia’s defence industrial base,” even as it “with no transparency, modernises and expands its own military at breakneck speed.”

China has already overtaken the US and now possesses the world’s largest navy and is adding the equivalent of the entire French navy every four years. It will soon also overtake the US submarine fleet; one of the reasons why China is so fixated on taking control of Taiwan is that its own territorial waters in the Taiwanese Straits are very shallow, making it easy for US spy satellites to see Chinese subs come and go, whereas the waters on the eastern side of Taiwan drop off precipitously and would allow China to deploy its submarine fleet undetected.

China is rearming and will also be able to challenge Nato directly. Its overall battle force is expected to grow to 395 ships this year, and to 435 by 2030, says Rutte. China also aims to have more than 1,000 operational nuclear warheads by 2030. “China’s ambitions and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values,” said Rutte.

“We cannot afford to hope for the best; we must prepare for the worst. It is clear that those who stand against freedom are readying themselves for long-term confrontation with Nato,” Rutte added.

Seoul has withdrawn from the upcoming Nato summit in The Hague in protest of the US attack on Iran.

5% GDP target except for Spain, Slovakia

Rutte is on board with the US call for member states to up their spending to 5% of GDP by 2037. All allies will spend at least 2% of GDP on defence this year, as promised at the Wales summit in 2014. However, most members have undershot: by 2021, only six members had reached the benchmark. At The Hague summit members are expected to make a new pledge to increase their country’s spend to 5% and Washington is insisting this time round there be no cheating, the US Ambassador to Nato Matthew Whitaker said earlier this month.

"Five per cent spending will be necessary to have the forces and capabilities to implement our defence plans in full and protect the Euro-Atlantic. This will mark a quantum leap in our collective defence," says Rutte.

Germany’s Bundeswehr warned in an internal strategy paper that Russia poses “existential risk” to both Germany and Europe as a whole, Spiegel reported last week. The Bundeswehr says the modernisation of the Russian Armed Forces is progressing rapidly and they could have 1.5mn soldiers by 2026. The Kremlin is mobilising industry and power "specifically to meet the requirements for a large-scale conflict against Nato by the end of this decade," the document said, but added an attack could come as soon as in the next two years.

Going into the summit almost all the member states have agreed to increase spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, but not everyone is on board. Nato gave Spain a calve out that allows it to spend less, Politico reported on June 22.

Likewise, on the eve of the summit, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico issued a statement saying that Slovakia had better things to spend its money on than defence and would make up its own mind how much to dedicate to defence. Last year it spent 2.1% on defence and the Finance Minister said earlier that there were no plans to increase sending, except for an incremental increase on dual-use projects such as military related infrastructure investments.

“Today, extensive armament and the possible global military conflict are being discussed significantly more than peace or the improvement of people’s living standards,” Fico said in the statement posted on social media. “In a period of restoring public finances and catching up with the average living standard in the EU, the Slovak Republic has other priorities in the coming years than armament.”

Countries closer to Russia are much keener on increasing spending. Poland has allocated the most to defence this year, 4.12% of GDP called for a much faster schedule to reach 5% by 2030. Nato’s Rutte also wants to go fast and reach the threshold by 2032.

Estonia is spending more than anyone else in Nato on defence: military spending hit 5.4% of GDP this year. The army has also doubled its forces on the Russian border and built a new Nato base with US-made high precision HIMARS missiles.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez demanded an exemption from the new target saying that Madrid would struggle to meet the 5% spending target. The language of the draft deal on the table was changed from "we commit" to "allies commit" to spend 5% on defence, which allows Spain more flexibility as long as it meets Nato's updated capability targets approved by alliance defence ministers on June 5. Spain also intends to spend only 2.1% of its GDP on defence this year which it says is enough to meet its obligations.

The US has also exempted itself from spending 5% of GDP on defence and its contributions to funding Ukraine have fallen to nothing since the start of this year, with no new money in the pipeline either.

Separately, Ukraine is asking Nato allies to earmark some of their spending to support Kyiv’s struggle against Russia and allocate 0.25% of their GDP to boosting Kyiv's defence production, Zelenskiy said on June 20 at a press briefing.

"Ukraine is part of Europe's security, and we want 0.25% of the GDP of a particular partner country to be allocated to our defence industry and domestic production," Zelenskiy said at the briefing.

Ukraine is currently in talks with Denmark, Norway, Germany, the United Kingdom and Lithuania on weapons development partnerships, Zelenskiy said.

Most of the biggest powers still have a lot of catching up to do. Poland and the frontline states in the Baltics are the only countries anywhere near to spending 5%. Indeed, Poland is the current leader as it aspires to build the largest conversional army in Europe in the next few years. Big countries like Germany, Spain, France and Italy all spent less than 2% last year.

Canada has even bigger difficulties. As a country that shares its only land border with the United States it has not, until recently, faced a direct military threat. Its spending remains far below the 2% defence spending benchmark: Canada allocated just 1.37% of GDP to defence in 2024 – the fifth-lowest level among Nato members.

Luxembourg currently spends 1.29% of GDP on defence, the third-lowest level in the alliance, but as it is so small it simply lacks the capacity to raise its military spending to the levels Nato demands.

These Nato states may seek to "compensate" for their own shortfalls by increasing their Ukraine-related spending, part of which counts towards the 5% of spending benchmark. Ukraine has welcomed this investment into its military production by other countries – the so-called Danish model.

Nato countries spending, 2024 percentage of GDP

Rank

Country

Spending %GDP (2024)

Spending $bn (2024)

Notes

1

Poland

4.12%

$38bn

Highest in Nato, 31% spending surge in 2024, likely ~4.2% in 2025.

2

Estonia

3.43%

$1.3bn

Pledged 5% by 2035, driven by Russian threat.

3

United States

3.38%

$971bn

~66% of total Nato spending, ~$997B projected for 2025.

4

Latvia

3.15%

$1.1bn

Increased spending due to regional security concerns.

5

Greece

3.08%

$7.6bn

Consistently above 2%, driven by tensions with Turkey.

6

Lithuania

2.85%

$2.1bn

Committed to 5% by 2035, near Russian border.

7

United Kingdom

2.50%

$81bn

Pledged 2.5% by 2027, ~$85B in 2025, aiming for 3% later.

8

Finland

2.45%

$7.2bn

New Nato member, spending rose post-2022 Ukraine invasion.

9

Romania

2.44%

$7.8bn

Increased post-2022, near Ukraine, aiming for 2.5% in 2025.

10

Hungary

2.43%

$5.1bn

Reached 2% in 2023, significant rise from prior years.

11

Denmark

2.33%

$9.5bn

Surpassed 2% in 2024, plans to maintain or increase in 2025.

12

Norway

2.07%

$11bn

Exceeded 2% in 2024, driven by Arctic security concerns.

13

Slovakia

2.03%

$2.8bn

Just above 2%, increased post-Ukraine invasion.

14

Montenegro

2.03%

$0.2bn

Small economy, met 2% target in 2024.

15

North Macedonia

2.01%

$0.3bn

Reached 2% in 2024, steady increase in recent years.

16

France

1.96%

$66bn

Below 2% in 2024, plans 3.5% by 2025, ~$70B projected.

17

Germany

1.94%

$88.5bn

Below 2% in 2024, ~$100B in 2025 with special defence fund.

18

Italy

1.50%

$35bn

Below 2% in 2024, aiming for 2% in 2025, ~$35B.

19

Canada

1.40%

$30bn

Below 2% in 2024, slow progress to 2%, ~$30B.

20

Spain

1.30%

$20bn

Below 2% in 2024, pledged 2.1% in 2025, ~$20B.

Source: Nato, bne IntelliNews

Ukraine disappointment

Bankova (Ukraine’s equivalent of the Kremlin) will be sorely disappointed by Ukraine’s downgraded role. Since Trump took office, the US has steadily pulled back from supporting Kyiv. The White House has imposed no new sanctions on Russia at all under Trump, while the EU voted through a seventeenth sanctions package last month and is currently working on an eighteenth. The White House also did not allocate any new weapons deliveries, which is a problem, as Ukraine is reported to be running low on air defence ammunition in particular, and could run out completely by this summer, analysts say.

Zelenskiy caused considerable embarrassment at the Vilnius Nato summit in 2023 by aggressively demanding accelerated Nato membership for Ukraine – demands that were met with a deafening silence by the Nato members.

At the Washington Nato summit in 2024, hosted by the Biden administration. Zelenskiy was told explicitly not to bring up the question of Ukraine’ Nato membership up at all, according to reports, as no one wanted to address the issue. Instead, the Nato members watered down their commitment to the empty rhetorical phrase of “Ukraine’s irreversible path” to eventual Nato membership, without committing to a timeline.

This year even the phrase “irreversible path” for the Washington Declaration has been dropped from the final communiqué, which will only be one page long. For comparison, the Washington summit’s final declaration – including its section on Ukraine – had over 40 points. The Vilnius declaration had 90. The Hague summit statement is expected to only contain five points.

Condemnation of Russia was also excluded from the G7 meeting and no joint communiqué was issued there either, due to US objections. Trump will not hold the conventional joint press conference with Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte after the meetings in the Hague.

Lots of money, but no soldiers

In the Hague the talk will focus almost exclusively on hardware, but it ignores the elephant in the room: what is the point of having lots of tanks if there is no one to drive them, or plenty of guns if there is no one to shoot them?

With just a few days left before Nato’s 2025 summit, The Economist editors wondered in the headline of their June 19 leader: "Europe wants to show it’s ready for war. Would anyone show up to fight?”

A 2024 poll by Gallup asked citizens in 45 countries how willing they would be to take up arms in case of war. “Four of the five places with the least enthusiastic fighters globally were in Europe, including Spain, Germany and notably Italy, where just 14% of respondents said they were up for taking on a foreign foe,” according to this analysis of the poll.

Still, Europe does not lack men and women in uniform. Despite a scything in the number of troops since 1990, to less than half the previous figure in many countries, the continent still has more soldiers than America, and roughly as many as a share of its overall population.

Yet the proposal to send peacekeepers to Ukraine to patrol a potential DMZ if a ceasefire deal had been agreed, proposed by France and the UK, was abandoned as unworkable. The Western allies suggested a force of 30,000 be sent, when military experts said at least 120,000 would be needed to man the 1,200-km long line of contact. That number was downgraded to 10,000 when it became clear European forces simply didn’t have the manpower available, before the idea was abandoned entirely in the face of stringent threats of retaliation by the Kremlin if Nato-back troops appeared on Ukrainian soil.

“The bloc’s citizens list Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and matters of defence as the biggest threats facing the EU as a whole. Well over half think that fighting within the union’s borders is likely in coming years,” The Economist reports. “But asked what issues affect them personally and Europeans forget about Russia altogether, worrying more about inflation, taxes, pensions and climate change than they do about potential invaders. It is not that Europeans don’t see the looming threat. It is that they think it is somebody else’s problem.”

Nato members agree to 5% GDP spending hike, but will they pay?

Nato members agree to 5% GDP spending hike, but will they pay?
The 32 members of Nato agreed in principle to increase defence spending to 5% of GDP, but they have ten years to comply and won't be check until 2029. Previously, many countries ignored pledges and even today a third are still not spending the 2% agreed in 2014. / bne IntelliNews

By Ben Aris in Berlin June 26, 2025

Nato leaders agreed to raise defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 and renewed their commitment to collective defence at the Nato summit held in the Hague on June 26.

The recommended spending level has been increased from 2% of GDP that was agreed at the Nato summit in Wales in 2014. Member countries are now supposed to submit “realistic” action plans to Nato and their spending will be reviewed in 2029 to see if they are hitting their targets.

As bne IntelliNews reported, this Nato summit was all about the money. While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy attended the meeting, a planned meeting of the Ukraine-Nato Council, an advisory body, was cancelled.

Zelenskiy also met briefly with US President Donald Trump, although conflicting reports emerged from the substance of their conversation. Zelenskiy claimed that he held a “substantial” conversation with the US president. However, Trump said in comments to the press that he did not mention the proposed ceasefire negotiations and only wanted to know “how he was doing.”

Later at a press conference when asked whether the US would send Ukraine desperately needed Patriot missiles for its air defence, Trump said he would “see what we can do.” He added that “we need them too” and explained that the US was sending more Patriot missiles to Israel, which has been under bombardment by Iran until recently.

The increase in spending to 5% represents an escalation in tensions in Europe. Leaders such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Nato General Secretary Mark Rutte have warned that Russia is rearming and could attack Nato members in Europe. The frontline states Poland and Estonia with borders close to Russia lead the way in spending on defence and are already at, or close to, spending 5%. However, member states far from Russia are more reluctant. Both Spain and Slovakia have said they don’t want to spend 5%. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico said on the eve of the summit that Slovakia has “better things to spend our money on.”

While all 32 members nominally committed to spending 5% of GDP on defence, there is no formal enforcement mechanism in the Nato treaty. Previously, following the Welsh declaration of a commitment to 2% of GDP spending, six years later only six members had complied. The US has explicitly exempted itself from the need to spend 5% of GDP on defence, although its spending is already more than the next six members combined in nominal terms.

Indeed, even today eleven out of the 32 members still have not reached the 2% of GDP benchmark, with Canada, Spain, Italy, Slovakia, Czechia and Turkey all spending under the requirement. Many of the other members have only hit 2% in the last few years, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The spending agreement, endorsed by all 32 Nato member states on June 25, comes after the Trump administration exerted tremendous pressure to hike spending. Moreover, conscious of the lax compliance to spending pledges in the past, the US Ambassador to Nato said during the meeting: “We don’t want another Wales.”

The new target includes 3.5% for “core” defence spending and 1.5% for related investments such as infrastructure and cybersecurity. Under the rules contributions to Ukraine’s defence can be counted towards the 5% total, which will allow nations like Luxembourg and Canada that have very low security needs to make up the tally. Nato said the decision reflects “profound security threats and challenges, in particular the long-term threat posed by Russia to Euro-Atlantic security and the persistent threat of terrorism.”

However, the White House's own commitment to forcing Russia into peace talks or supporting European Nato allies remains confused. The Trump administration has imposed no sanctions on Russia and Trump was vague about the US commitment to the Article 5 collective security clause in the treaty.

The US President had doubts about absolute guarantees on the way to The Hague, but changed his mind at the summit. "I'm leaving it in a different mood," he said at the final press conference. "This is not robbery, and we will be here to help them defend their countries."

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also made conflicting comments on the US commitment to increasing the pressure on the Kremlin with more sanctions, talking tough with allies during the formal dinner on June 24, but then toning down the aggressive stance in an interview with Politico.

“If we did what everybody here wants us to do, and that is come in and crush them with more sanctions, we probably lose our ability to talk to them about the ceasefire, and then who’s talking to them?” Rubio told Politico, adding that Trump will know the “time and place” for changing tack.

Nato Secretary Rutte warned that Russia could be capable of launching an attack on Nato territory “within five years,” lending urgency to the alliance’s pledge. The increase, he added, followed months of negotiations and would trigger defence spending in the trillions of dollars through 2035.

Rutte got into trouble by calling Trump “Daddy” in a joint session in relation to the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. "It was so shameful," Politico quotes one European official saying. "Yes, the summit can be considered a success overall. But groveling like this is too much."

But the fracas was overblown as Rutte was making a joke at Trump’s expense after the US president used the word “fuck” in comments live to camera after Israel broke the ceasefire Trump declared on June 24.

After a ceasefire deal, Trump had raised eyebrows by saying Israel and Iran had been fighting "so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing".

During the panel with Trump, Rutte laughed and said: "And then daddy has to sometimes use strong language to get (them to) stop."

The joint declaration reaffirmed Nato’s support for Ukraine, though it notably omitted last year’s language of Ukraine’s “irreversible” path to Nato membership. It also downgraded comments on Russia from “aggressor” to merely a “threat” under US pressure for more restrained language.

The summit, dominated by questions about the United States’ future role in the alliance, follows remarks from Trump suggesting ambivalence towards Article 5 – the cornerstone clause requiring members to defend one another in case of attack.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, addressing the closed-door session, said the summit was about “putting our money where our mouth is.” The message to the Kremlin, he added, was clear: “Don’t pick a fight with Nato.”


Unrelenting Bolivarian Resistance against


Stubborn US Aggression



On the eve of Venezuela’s presidential election on 29 July 2024, Guardian correspondents, Tiago Rogero (based in Rio de Janeiro) and Sam Jones (based in Madrid) predicted the vote “could end 25 years of socialist rule.” It did not. The following, 30 July, another group of Guardian correspondents gave prominent coverage to far-right wing Venezuelan politician Maria Corina Machado, quoting her claim that “Maduro’s exit was inevitable.” Yet, Nicolas Maduro was inaugurated as the re-elected president for the 2025-2031 term on 10 January 2025.

The July 2024 presidential election was followed by the election for National Assembly deputies and all 24 governorships of Venezuela’s federal structure on 25 May 2025. Venezuela’s US-funded far-right opposition, led by Machado boycotted the vote. Corporate media outlets –including the New York Times, the Washington PostLe MondeEl País, the BBC, and others – framed their coverage by labelling the election “divisive” and extensively quoting Machado’s claim that “85% of the electorate did not obey the regime and said no.” In reality, she falsely portrayed the opposition’s boycott as a political victory, implying widespread voter rejection.

Unlike the July 2024 presidential election –when the far-right factions instigated street violence resulting in 27 deaths at the hands of armed thugs, including two armed attacks on the presidential palace –, the 25 May 2025 legislative and gubernatorial elections (Venezuela’s 32nd electoral process), proceeded calmly and peacefully. However, the far-right’s boycott was never merely a peaceful protest against an election organized by a government they refuse to recognise. Their actions went far beyond that.

On 28 May, Venezuela’s Interior Minister, Diosdado Cabello, reported the arrest of over 70 individuals of various nationalities (Venezuelan, Colombian, American, Argentine, Spanish, Ecuadorian, Serbian, Albanian and others). Several foreign-funded ‘NGOs’ appeared implicated in the plot. Authorities seized explosives, assault rifles, and other military equipment intended for attacks on foreign embassies, hospitals, emergency services, electricity substations, police stations, and high-profile political figures – particularly those from the opposition who participated in the election. The suspects had entered Venezuela via Colombia. Cabello also revealed that Venezuela’s armed forces had thwarted nearly 60 attacks on oil installations in the preceding ten days. Evidence indicated the terrorist group was led by Venezuela’s far-right leaders.

This was not their first attempt. The government has also reported the arrest of mercenaries coming from Trinidad and Tobago with ties to a broader network trained in Ecuador – a country now reportedly a hub of cocaine exports. A glance at a map reveals Venezuela’s encirclement by US-aligned hostile forces: Guyana, Ecuador, Colombian narcotraffickers, and SOUTHCOM to its north and beyond.

Machado’s boycott strategy backfired, fracturing her already divided coalition further when several former boycotters decided to stand as candidates and urged their supporters to vote. The result? Chavismo secured 253 of 285 for the National Assembly and 23 of 24 governorships, including the election of a governor for Guayana Esequiba –a territory Venezuela claims. The sole governorship not won by Chavismo, Cojedes, went to Alberto Galíndez, an opposition politician who recognises Maduro’s legitimacy and accepted the overall results. Moreover, Chavismo gained 1.3 million more votes than in the 2021 elections, demonstrating growing support. With this victory, President Maduro and the Bolivarian Revolution now hold not only the presidency until 2031, but also commanding majorities in the National Assembly and among governorships.

The May 2025 election results marked a resounding triumph for the Bolivarian government and a stinging defeat for the Trump administration –particularly with the election of Chavista, Admiral Neil Villamizar as governor for Guayana Esequiba. On 23 May, the Guardian quoted Guyana’s president Irfaan Ali,  who denounced the election in this state as an “assault on Guyana’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.” Yet, the report conveniently omitted any mention of the 1966 Geneva Agreement, which underpins Venezuela’s claim.[2]

In collusion with Guyana, the US has transformed Guyana into a military enclave, using it as a base for regular military provocations against Venezuela since 2021. Strangely, just one day after the election, on 26 May 2025, the Guardian wrote an exhaustively researched feature with stunning photographs –not on Venezuela’s election, but on…the Orinoco crocodile.

Beyond their self-defeating abstentionism, Machado and the far-right further eroded their credibility by enthusiastically endorsing U.S. sanctions –effectively advocating for Venezuela’s economic strangulation – and cheering Trump’s brutal deportation policies targeting Latin Americans, especially Venezuelans whom he falsely labels as “government-controlled criminals.

When asked whether she supported Trump’s deeply unpopular policy of deporting Latino and Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador’s CECOT prison –a facility notorious for torture– Machado replied “Absolutely!” –uncritically parroting Trump’s baseless claims.

The record of Venezuela’s far-right opposition is simply appalling. Not only have they been heavily involved with Colombian narco-traffickers to carry out terrorist acts against their own country, but their leader, Juan Guaidó, even proclaimed himself “interim president” on a Caracas street in 2019. Worse still, this claim was recognized by the U.S.-led Collective West. They colluded with Western powers to facilitate the confiscation of Venezuelan assets—including gold, bank accounts, and property—in actions that amount to nothing less than high treason.

With the backing of the Collective West, they prolonged the farce of the 2015 National Assembly’s legitimacy—where they once held a majority—long after its mandate expired in 2020. In fact, they still falsely claim legitimacy in 2025, five years after the end of their constitutional term, while continuing to pay monthly U.S. dollar “emoluments” to their obsolete lawmakers.

Under the guise of a humanitarian effort to bring food by force across the Colombian border, they even attempted a military incursion with Colombian paramilitaries, aiming to seize control of a Venezuelan city and install a “provisional government” to be recognized by the U.S. and the Collective West.

The Venezuelan opposition’s actions are indefensible. They have been linked to multiple assassination attempts against President Maduro, including plots to decapitate Venezuela’s political and military leadership using explosives. They organized a mercenary incursion aimed at violently overthrowing the Bolivarian government, with the explicit goal of assassinating Maduro and as many Bolivarian leaders as possible. They have enthusiastically supported the U.S. blockade’s economic asphyxiation—which remains in place—while sabotaging every election since 2013 through violent disruptions.

Repeatedly, they have called on the military to revolt, urging the overthrow of Venezuela’s democratically elected governments (under both Chávez and Maduro). Their tactics include systematic infrastructure sabotage, consistently timed to coincide with elections. They have exacerbated U.S. sanctions by promoting hoarding, artificially inflating prices, and engineering shortages of basic goods—deliberately inflicting severe hardship on the population. Even worse, they manipulated Venezuela’s currency crisis through DolarToday, a platform that daily published inflated exchange rates to fuel hyperinflation.

The opposition’s transgressions go even further. On multiple occasions they have enlisted the services of mercenary Erik Prince, even launching a crowdfunding campaign (Ya Casi Venezuela) to finance his proposed violent overthrow of President Maduro’s government. They are currently under FBI investigation for large-scale corruption, accused of embezzling nearly US$1 billion in humanitarian aid meant for Venezuelans abroad – of which mere 2% as properly allocated). Worse still, they have fraudulently managed over US$40 billion in Venezuelan assets through shady contracts with Miami-based firms, exchanging national resources for personal bribes. Their attempt to replicate the DolarToday scheme was swiftly  crushed by the government, which acted decisively to shut it down.

This brazen subversion aligns with broader U.S. imperial ambitions. In a blatant reaffirmation of the Monroe Doctrine, SOUTHCOM commander Admiral Alvin Holsey declared before the Senate Armed Services Committee (13 February 2025) that the U.S. must prevail in the “strategic competition with China in the Western Hemisphere” and counter “Russia’s malign agenda” – naming Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua as their conduits. Thus Washington now openly frames its assault on Bolivarian Revolution as part of its geopolitical competition with China and Russia. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth underscored this stance on 6 June 2025, bluntly stating “We are preparing for war with China.

Yet, despite 12 years of relentless aggression since Comandante Chávez’s passing, the Venezuelan people have shown extraordinary resilience, defying predictions of inevitable collapse. The government’s response? Deepening democracy. Ahead of upcoming municipal and mayoral elections (27 July 2025), Venezuela is intensifying its participatory democracy model, empowering the comunas –grassroots, self-managed councils where communities directly decide and implement projects to improve their living standards: direct democracy.

President Maduro has announced the “creation of the Communal Portfolio Fund of the national budget” that will directly allocate resources to projects developed by local communities. These funds will be managed through communal circuits, with spending priorities democratically decided by commune inhabitants themselves.

In revealing interview (7 June 2025), Jesús Faría, PSUV Vice Minister of Productive Economy of the PSUV, emphasized the urgent need to accelerate the expansion of Communal direct democracy and consolidate people’s power. Faría made a critical observation: the PSUV must take the lead in advancing the commune system. With tens of thousands of grassroots organizations across Venezuela, the PSUV maintains a Gramscian hegemony –not by imposition but by organically articulating this vibrant social ecosystem into a cohesive for socialism. Its structural bonds with them enable it to harmonize and mobilize this rich social universe towards socialist construction.

Thus, even as U.S. imperialism doubles down on its fanatical crusade to destroy the Bolivarian Revolution, Venezuela is fortifying its socialist foundations. By empowering communes, deepening participatory democracy, and strengthening the PSUV’s vanguard role, the revolution is building unshakable resilience—proving that people’s power, not imperial aggression, will shape Venezuela’s future.

ENDNOTES:

[1] If we take December 1999 as the start, of the Bolivarian Revolution is 25 years old; the Venezuela Solidarity Campaign was founded on 25 May 2005, thus making 20 years old. We pay homage to the Bolivarian process for keeping alive and fulfilling humanity’s dream of a better world.

[2] On the details of the Venezuela-Guyana dispute.

Francisco Dominguez is the national secretary of the UK-based Venezuela Solidarity Campaign,  Roger D. Harris is with the Task Force on the Americas, the US Peace Council, and the Venezuela Solidarity Network, based in North America. Read other articles by Francisco Dominguez and Roger D. Harris.

Don’t Buy the Scare About US Social Security


 June 24, 2025

Image Source: US Government – Public Domain

The release of the 2025 Social Security Trustees Report led to lots of hyperventilating in the media as well as dire warnings about the program facing insolvency. While people can earn a good living pushing scare stories on Social Security, they have little basis in reality.

To be clear, the most recent trustees report does show the program facing a shortfall so that in nine years it will not be able to pay full scheduled benefits. But it is important to get a clear picture of what this means.

First, let’s look at the numbers on their face. Under current law, the government cannot pay out benefits if the money is not in the Social Security trust fund. The projections show that in 2034, after the bonds held by the trust fund have been sold off, the program will have enough money to pay 82 percent of scheduled benefits.

While a benefit cut of 18 percent would be a terrible thing for most beneficiaries, 82 percent is still very far from zero. So, the idea that the program will just go away is a complete invention. Congress can vote it out of existence, but that doesn’t seem very likely given the share of the population that either are currently beneficiaries or expect to be getting benefits in the near future.

Another point about these numbers that deserves to be attacked head on is the idea that Social Security in its current structure is a major cause of generational inequality. While the retirement of the baby boom cohorts substantially reduced the ratio of workers to retirees, there is little change projected in later years in this century. This means that the share of scheduled benefits that could be paid, absent any action from Congress, falls only modestly in subsequent decades.

Going out to 2065, when today’s 25 year-olds will be turning 65, the program is projected to be able to pay 74 percent of scheduled benefits. This would mean that if Congress never touches the program and the projections prove correct, a lifetime medium earner would get a benefit of $30,900 in 2065, more than 20 percent higher than the $25,200 a medium earner would get retiring today (all numbers are in 2025 dollars). Where’s the generational inequality?

The fuller picture would be somewhat more complicated. We expect a retiree’s income to bear some relationship to their income while working. The benefit the program would be able to pay in 2065, absent any changes, would be a lower share of lifetime earnings than is the case today. But then again, why are workers in the next forty years expected to have higher lifetime earnings? It’s because we have given them a larger capital stock and better infrastructure and level of technology than what we had when we entered the workforce.

We can have serious debates about whether the rate of increase in real wages and living standards is as rapid as it should be, but there is no doubt that the direction of change is positive, at least on average (an important point I will return to shortly). If we want to concern ourselves with generational inequality, we should look to the condition of the planet we are handing down to our kids. If we don’t do more to address global warming the earth will be a much less pleasant place in 30 or 40 years than it is today. That is a real and serious harm to young people.

How Big is the Social Security Funding Gap and How Did We Get Here?

There are two important points about the projected funding gap. First, it is more of an accounting problem than an economic problem. Second, it is not especially large relative to other expenses the country has faced.

The first point is simply that when the trust fund runs out of bonds, as is projected in 2033, it does not create a new economic burden for the country. The government will not be paying substantially more in benefits in 2034 than in 2033, it just won’t have bonds in the trust fund to cover part of the expense.

That is an accounting issue. The increase in spending on Social Security from 2033 to 2034, measured as a share of GDP, is just 0.03 percentage points. That would be less than 1.0 percent of the Pentagon’s budget. This is the extent of the increased economic burden in the year the trust fund faces depletion.

If the goal is to fully fill the annual funding gap, the projections imply that it would require increased revenue and/or a cut in spending of a bit more than 1.0 percent of GDP (one-third of the Pentagon’s budget). The reason for this gap is that the program has been spending more than its income for more than a decade with the annual gap growing continually larger over this period. The bonds accumulated in the trust fund had been filling this gap.

There is nothing nefarious here. This was all by design and fully public. The last major adjustment to the program in 1982 structured it to build up a large trust fund while the baby boomers were in the workforce, to be spent down when they retired.

If the point is to fill the gap by committing additional revenue to the program, we could raise the cap on wages that are taxed (currently $176,100), we could increase the tax rate, or we could assign other government revenue to the program. The last change would literally just be accounting. If we said that $300 billion a year of general revenue (roughly 1.0 percent of GDP) would be paid into the Social Security fund, it would reduce or eliminate the shortfall in the Social Security trust fund, but it would have no effect on the budget deficit as it’s usually reported. In short, we can easily come up with the money to pay all scheduled benefits.

If the government decides to raise additional tax revenue to cover the Social Security shortfall, it makes sense that the bulk of it would come from rich. They have been the big winners in the economy over the last half century.

But the logic for taxing the rich goes even further. The upward redistribution over this period was a major factor in creating the shortfall in the program. In 1982, the last time Congress made major changes to the program, only 10 percent of wage income was above the cap and escaped taxation. Currently close to 18 percent of wage income is above the cap.

In addition, in the years since 2000 there has been a major shift from wages to profits. In 2000, profits were 18.2 percent of corporate income. In 2024, they were 28.3 percent. If profits had remained at their 2000 share, the average wage in the corporate sector would be more than 12 percent higher than it is today. The combination of the upward redistribution of wage income, from ordinary workers to highly paid professionals, Wall Street types, and corporate executives, and the shift from wages to profits, explains much of the shortfall the program is now projected to face. That makes a good argument for changing the program so that the winners from this upward redistribution pay more to support the program.

There is one other point worth making about the prospects for additional tax revenue. We could raise the tax rate. While any additional payments to support the program should come mostly from the rich, it is not absurd to think that ordinary workers can pay a higher tax rate. After all the program is designed to support a considerably longer retirement than was the case in 1990, the last time there was any increase in the tax rate.

From 1966 to 1990 the tax rate on wages rose from 5.8 percent to 12.4 percent, an increase of 6.6 percentage points over 24 years. By contrast, there has been no increase in the last 35 years. If the tax were to increase, say by 2 percentage points over the next two decades, it hardly seems like a major crisis. The average real annual wage is projected to be 32 percent higher in 2045 than it is today. It would be hard to make a case that workers in 2045 would be suffering a major hardship if we took back 2.0 percentage points of this increase in the form of higher taxes for Social Security. We do have to worry about inequality, but for the last decade, workers at the bottom have been roughly keeping pace with average wage growth.

It is understandable that politicians running for office don’t like to talk about tax increases, but in this respect, Donald Trump can perhaps offer a useful lesson. He is imposing import taxes (tariffs) that could well reach $400 billion a year. This is equivalent to a 4.0 percentage point increase in the payroll tax. He is doing this without even getting approval from Congress. To date, this tax hike has prompted only limited public complaint. It is hard to believe that a tax increase, half this size, phased in over twenty years, to support the country’s most popular social program, would be an impossible political lift.

Social Security is a Great Program

On this last point, it is worth reminding everyone how incredibly popular Social Security is. It enjoys overwhelming public support across the political spectrum, with even supermajorities of Republicans expressing support for the program.

The reason is obvious. For more than 80 years Social Security has provided a substantial degree of economic security to the country’s working population and their families. It provides this security even to high-income workers who may not think they need it, because even a highly paid doctor or lawyer may find they are no longer highly paid after a serious illness or car accident.

It also is incredibly efficient, with administrative costs for the retirement program that are less than 0.4 percent of the benefits paid each year. By all measures the amount of fraud in the program is minimal. Elon Musk’s DOGE team actually helped to confirm this basic story. While they went in with grand promises to root out waste and fraud, they essentially found nothing and instead pushed absurd lies like 20 million people with birthdays putting them over age 120 getting benefits or 40 percent of the phone calls to the agency were people trying to commit fraud.  (The small grain of truth in the 40 percent figure was that 40 percent of the identified instances of fraud were initiated through phone calls, which means 60 percent were either initiated on-line or through in-person visits.)

In short, Social Security does what it is designed to do in providing retirement security, as well as security against disability, for workers and their families. As much as the media and its political enemies like to hype the scare stories, there is no reason it should not be around long into the future and paying out full scheduled benefits.

This first appeared on Dean Baker’s Beat the Press blog.

Dean Baker is the senior economist at the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC.