Zach C. Cohen
Wed, August 31, 2022
(Bloomberg) -- Democrat Mary Peltola flipped Alaska’s lone House seat in this month’s special election, growing Democrats’ majority in the narrowly divided chamber and setting up a rematch against former Republican Gov. Sarah Palin for the seat in November.
Peltola won the special election to replace the late Rep. Don Young (R-Alaska) at least for the rest of the year, beating Palin — the party’s nominee for vice president in 2008 — and Nick Begich (R), the grandson of Young’s Democratic predecessor in the House. A fourth candidate who won a berth in the contest, Al Gross (I), dropped out days after the all-party primary.
Peltola won the support of 40% of voters’ first-choice ballots. After more than a quarter of Begich supporters’ listed Peltola as their second choice, the Democrat’s lead grew to 51% to Palin’s 49%.
Peltola’s election is the latest instance of Democrats in recent elections capitalizing on the Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down a federal right to an abortion. Rep.-elect Pat Ryan (D-N.Y.) also won a special election for a vacant seat in the Hudson Valley by campaigning on abortion rights, protecting a vulnerable seat in Democrats’ narrow majority.
The high court’s ruling was a “recurring theme” on the campaign trail in Alaska, where voters are “covetous” of their privacy and freedom and “very concerned” about “this new radical conservative Supreme Court,” Peltola, who turned 49 on Wednesday, said in an interview last week.
“Overturning Roe. Wade was a real infringement on both privacy and freedom,” Peltola said. “A lot of people recognize the importance for establishing a good balance of power and having a Congress, both in the House and Senate, that is more receptive to the will of the people.”
Once Peltola and Ryan are sworn in, the House Democrats’ caucus will grow to 221. House Republicans will increase to 212 when Rep-elect Joe Sempolinski (R-N.Y.) takes office. The two remaining vacancies, left by Rep. Jackie Walorski’s (R-Ind.) death and Rep. Charlie Crist’s (D-Fla.) resignation Wednesday, won’t be filled until after the November election.
Palin in a statement acknowledged Peltola’s victory but pledged to keep running for a full two-year term in November.
“Ranked-choice voting was sold as the way to make elections better reflect the will of the people,” Palin said. “As Alaska – and America – now sees, the exact opposite is true.”
Begich also said he will run for a full term in November.
First Alaska Native in Congress
When she’s sworn in, Peltola will be the first woman to represent Alaska in the House. Alaska hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress since the election of Begich’s uncle, former Sen. Mark Begich, in 2008. Young had held the House seat for his party since 1973.
“Alaskan voters vote for the person and not the party,” Peltola said. “And I think there’s such an appetite for someone who is focused on the challenges ahead of us and finding solutions to those challenges.”
Peltola, a Yup’ik Eskimo, will also be the first Alaska Native in Congress.
“Alaska Native people, we don’t compartmentalize in the same way that I think other people would imagine,” Peltola said. “We’re very holistic. And so of course, when we’re talking about our community, we mean everyone.”
Peltola will only have a few weeks between her swearing-in and her race for re-election, and the House is scheduled to be in session for only three of them. But Peltola says she can use the time to gain a foothold in Washington.
“My first priority is to make as many relationships, positive working relationships, as I can with both parties,” she said.
Chairing the Bush Caucus
Peltola represented the rural Bethel region in the Alaska House of Representatives for a decade. Democrats at the time held what she called a “mini minority,” so small that that they feared losing committee assignments.
In the legislature she chaired the Bush Caucus, a bipartian group of lawmakers from the state’s remote areas, with a focus on boosting education and harnessing renewable energy.
“We were always five Democrats, five Republicans,” Peltola said. “And not only were we working to advance the needs of our own house districts and rural districts, we really were fighting for the full state.”
She said she’s hoping to get seats on the Transportation & Infrastructure and Natural Resources Committees, both panels Young chaired. Those posts would be relevant for a state that depends respectively on its airports and fossil-fuel production.
“Having a voice on the resources committee for Alaska is critical,” she said.
Peltola said any of the state’s near-term growth would likely come from gas, oil, and mining. She said recent “hangups” in permitting oil and gas projects are attributable to litigation that began during the Trump administration.
“I would not put this 100% at the feet of Joe Biden and Deb Haaland,” Peltola said, referring to the president and the secretary of the Interior Department. “There are a lot more factors to it than just two Democrats.”
Peltola said she plans to carry on Young’s “legacy” of working with “everyone and anyone who is reasonable,” which allowed him to be an “effective” advocate for the state.
Peltola, a mother of four, said she’s known Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) since they were both elected to the Alaska House in 1998. They bonded over their shared status as legislators with young children, and Peltola said they agree on the need to work across party lines.
Peltola has also crossed paths with Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) and his family through her time in the legislature and as manager of community development and sustainability for the Donlin gold mine project.
“I feel like I have very good relationships with both Lisa and Dan,” Peltola said.
Peltola also served as executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission, where she advocated for the protection of the state’s western salmon runs. She also sat on the Orutsararmiut Native Council Tribal Court and the Bethel City Council.
‘Only Game in Town’
Peltola will seek a full two-year term in November as Alaskans, who favored former President Donald Trump by 10 points in 2020, weigh races not just for the House but for the Senate and governorship.
Peltola reported $125,000 on hand as of Aug. 4, according to her latest disclosure with the Federal Election Commission. She spent just $249,000 on her campaign and was far outspent by her Palin and Begich, who respectively spent $963,000 and $672,000.
Begich also vastly outspent Palin and Peltola in TV advertising, according to media tracking firm AdImpact, mostly on ads faulting Palin for resigning the governorship in 2009.
Palin and Begich also benefited from outside advertising. Sen. Rand Paul‘s (R-Ky.) super PAC spent $250,000 boosting Palin, while Begich got support from the Koch family-linked Americans for Prosperity.
“The only game in town really is the two-year seat,” Peltola said.
Bloomberg Businessweek
Palin defeat in Alaska and Kansas abortion vote show 2022 midterms will be Roe election
Turns out Joe Biden was right when he said ‘Roe is on the ballot’, writes Eric Garcia
US House candidate Mary Peltola reacts at her campaign party at 49th State Brewing in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S. August 16, 2022
(REUTERS/Kerry Tasker)
Democratic candidate Mary Peltola’s victory against former governor Sarah Palin in the special election to fill Alaska’s sole congressional seat would be a political earthquake on its own given the fact a Democrat has not won that seat since 1972.
But the fact that this was Democrats’ second special election victory in as many weeks shows a massive momentum shift after many political prognosticators had thought Republicans would blow them out as they seek to take back the majority.
Last week, Democrats held a seat in New York’s 19th district after Governor Kathy Hochul selected Antonio Delgado to be her lieutenant governor. In response, Pat Ryan won a special election largely campaigning on defending abortion rights against a more moderate and well-known Republican in Marc Molinaro.
These two victories come off the back of Kansas voting against a constitutional amendment that would have allowed for restrictions on abortion. But even in races that Democrats have lost – such as the special election in Nebraska’s 1st district and in Minnesota’s 1st district – they overperformed and made inroads in rural parts of the country.
Saying that all of these races are driven by the same dynamics would be absurd – Kansas is different from New York which is different from Alaska – and many of the candidates ran on wholly unique messages. But it is hard to deny that the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v Jackson ruling overturning Roe v Wade earlier this summer didn’t have some kind of effect.
When the Supreme Court handed down its decision, President Joe Biden said “Roe is on the ballot.” At the time, it was hard to see given that his approval ratings continued to hit historic lows, inflation remained high and when Politico leaked a draft of the Supreme Court’s opinion in May, the Senate failed to pass legislation to codify Roe.
But it’s fairly clear that public opinion has also shifted. A new Quinnipiac University poll released today showed that 34 per cent of respondents think abortion should be legal in all cases, the highest that it has ever been since Quinnipiac started asking the question in 2004.
This isn’t to say voters don’t care about other issues. The same survey showed that 27 per cent of voters think inflation is the most urgent issue facing the country today, with abortion, climate change and gun violence all tied for second at 9 per cent each.
But that is a decided change from even a few months ago. In addition, Democrats’ recent polling shows them enjoy a slight lead in the generic congressional ballot – which determines whether voters would prefer to vote for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat for Congress.
Furthermore, it’s fairly clear that even staunch conservatives have to modulate their stance on abortion. Arizona Senate Republican candidate Blake Masters has scrubbed his campaign website when it comes to abortion rhetoric, removing language about a “federal personhood law,” which earned the chagrin of anti-abortion conservatives, only for his campaign adviser to clarify that he hasn’t moderated.
Democrats still face major structural advantages given that the president’s party typically loses seats in a midterm, but the outlook is quite different and now Democrats are able to campaign on something to run against, as well as their own record.
Turns out Joe Biden was right when he said ‘Roe is on the ballot’, writes Eric Garcia
US House candidate Mary Peltola reacts at her campaign party at 49th State Brewing in Anchorage, Alaska, U.S. August 16, 2022
(REUTERS/Kerry Tasker)
Democratic candidate Mary Peltola’s victory against former governor Sarah Palin in the special election to fill Alaska’s sole congressional seat would be a political earthquake on its own given the fact a Democrat has not won that seat since 1972.
But the fact that this was Democrats’ second special election victory in as many weeks shows a massive momentum shift after many political prognosticators had thought Republicans would blow them out as they seek to take back the majority.
Last week, Democrats held a seat in New York’s 19th district after Governor Kathy Hochul selected Antonio Delgado to be her lieutenant governor. In response, Pat Ryan won a special election largely campaigning on defending abortion rights against a more moderate and well-known Republican in Marc Molinaro.
These two victories come off the back of Kansas voting against a constitutional amendment that would have allowed for restrictions on abortion. But even in races that Democrats have lost – such as the special election in Nebraska’s 1st district and in Minnesota’s 1st district – they overperformed and made inroads in rural parts of the country.
Saying that all of these races are driven by the same dynamics would be absurd – Kansas is different from New York which is different from Alaska – and many of the candidates ran on wholly unique messages. But it is hard to deny that the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v Jackson ruling overturning Roe v Wade earlier this summer didn’t have some kind of effect.
When the Supreme Court handed down its decision, President Joe Biden said “Roe is on the ballot.” At the time, it was hard to see given that his approval ratings continued to hit historic lows, inflation remained high and when Politico leaked a draft of the Supreme Court’s opinion in May, the Senate failed to pass legislation to codify Roe.
But it’s fairly clear that public opinion has also shifted. A new Quinnipiac University poll released today showed that 34 per cent of respondents think abortion should be legal in all cases, the highest that it has ever been since Quinnipiac started asking the question in 2004.
This isn’t to say voters don’t care about other issues. The same survey showed that 27 per cent of voters think inflation is the most urgent issue facing the country today, with abortion, climate change and gun violence all tied for second at 9 per cent each.
But that is a decided change from even a few months ago. In addition, Democrats’ recent polling shows them enjoy a slight lead in the generic congressional ballot – which determines whether voters would prefer to vote for a generic Republican or a generic Democrat for Congress.
Furthermore, it’s fairly clear that even staunch conservatives have to modulate their stance on abortion. Arizona Senate Republican candidate Blake Masters has scrubbed his campaign website when it comes to abortion rhetoric, removing language about a “federal personhood law,” which earned the chagrin of anti-abortion conservatives, only for his campaign adviser to clarify that he hasn’t moderated.
Democrats still face major structural advantages given that the president’s party typically loses seats in a midterm, but the outlook is quite different and now Democrats are able to campaign on something to run against, as well as their own record.
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