WAIT,WHAT?!

U.S., Russia In Quiet Talks to Bring Russian Gas Back to Europe

By Charles Kennedy - May 08, 2025

U.S. and Russian officials are quietly exploring pathways to restore Russian natural gas flows to Europe—an initiative that, if realized, would mark a seismic shift in post-Ukraine war energy dynamics, according to an exclusive report by Reuters on Thursday. 

The talks, still in preliminary stages, are reportedly linked to ongoing peace negotiations and could involve U.S.-backed intermediary arrangements to facilitate pipeline transit through Ukraine or even Nord Stream infrastructure, Reuters reported.

Europe's Russian gas dependency collapsed from 40% to just 19% after the 2022 invasion, slashing Gazprom’s export volumes and forcing Europe into LNG deals at premium prices.

Yet now, with gas prices stabilizing and European voters balking at inflation, energy pragmatism may be edging out geopolitics.

The exclusive Reuters report comes just two days after the European Commission published a roadmap of its plans to end European dependency on Russian gas, which would ban imports of all Russian gas and LNG to EU member states by the end of 2027. Legislative proposals related to this ban will be tabled in June. 

"No more will we permit Russia to weaponise energy against us... No more will we indirectly help fill up the [Kremlin's] war chests," European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jorgensen said in a news conference in Strasbourg on Tuesday, as reported by the BBC. 

That roadmap and subsequent statements prompted Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov to respond to Reuters on Tuesday, saying the move would represent Europe “shooting itself in the foot”. 

There has been a fair amount of skepticism as to how effectively Europe could cut off Russian gas entirely. In April, the EU was reported to be considering declaring a force majeure to negate natural gas supply contracts with Russian Gazprom, without huge penalties. However, this could prove legally challenging due to the fact that this move was not taken three years ago, when Russia first invaded Ukraine.

At the same time, Ukraine has ratified a strategic minerals deal with the U.S., giving American firms priority access to lithium, titanium, and rare earths—crucial inputs for defense and green tech. The deal includes a reconstruction fund, tying resource extraction to long-term rebuilding and Western alignment.

From a market perspective, this is classic high-stakes chess where energy, capital, and geopolitics collide. The possibility of Russian gas reentering Europe would ripple through global LNG pricing and threaten U.S. export competitiveness.

Meanwhile, the minerals pact gives U.S. investors a long-term stake in one of the few growth narratives still standing in Eastern Europe.

These are not isolated headlines—they’re signals of a shifting energy order, which will require investors to pay close attention to where the flows start to move again, and where the capital will follow.  

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

 

How Turkey Could Thwart the EU's Plan to Ban Russian Gas

By Irina Slav - May 08, 2025

• The European Union aims to cut all Russian natural gas imports by 2027, but Turkey's growing role as a gas hub could complicate this effort.

• Hungary and Slovakia continue to import Russian gas through the TurkStream pipeline, boosting dependency despite EU intentions.

• Turkey's plans to replace Ukraine as a transit route could extend Russia's gas influence in Europe, challenging Brussels' energy goals.

The European Union wants to quit all forms of Russian energy imports by the end of 2027. The EU has spoken a lot about this, but action has been mostly absent, with Russia still the second-biggest supplier of gas to the bloc. Now, a non-EU country’s gas ambitions could make Brussels’ task of quitting Russian gas even harder.

The European Commission this week announced plans to bring Russian natural gas imports to zero. This will, apparently, happen by the central government of the EU banning member states from signing new supply contracts with Gazprom while looking for a way to also get them out of existing contracts without having to pay penalties for breaching these contracts.

The first problem with this is that not all EU members are on board with the idea. Hungary and Slovakia are, in fact, very much opposed to the idea, arguing it would further compromise the competitiveness of European businesses for reasons relating to costs. Now, the Commission could get the two into line by adopting the plan with a qualified, rather than a full majority of member states. What it can’t do, however, is stop Turkey from turning into a gas hub, featuring a lot of Russian gas.

Hungary and Slovakia are currently getting their Russian natural gas supply via the TurkStream pipeline that runs under the Black Sea to Turkey and then on to Eastern Europe. According to one Bulgarian energy analyst from the progressive think-tank Center for the Study of Democracy, the existence of this pipeline can prolong the European Union’s reliance on Russian gas. Indeed, it has already increased Russian gas imports to Central and Southeastern Europe from some 30% back in 2021 to over 50% as of last year, Martin Vladimirov wrote in an op-ed for Reuters.

Tukey imports a lot of Russian gas. It uses some of it at home and exports the rest to Southeastern Europe. Turkey also has plans to become a major regional natural gas hub, both via imports from Russia and Central Asia, and through local exploration and production. The Turkish government has also made public plans to essentially replace Ukraine as a key transit route between Russia’s gas fields and European consumers.

According to figures cited by the Center for the Study of Democracy’s Vladimirov, Hungary is the biggest importer of TurkStream gas, with flows expected to reach 8 billion cu m this year. That’s up from 6 billion cu m in 2023. Slovakia, meanwhile, plans to ramp-up gas flows via the pipe by amending its long-term contract with Gazprom. Other countries getting gas from the TurkStream pipeline include Bulgaria, which is part of the transit route, Serbia, Romania, and some Western Balkan states.

Now, Vladimirov argues that these flows can be replaced entirely with liquefied natural gas. He does acknowledge, however, that this would come at a price, and it is not an insignificant price. This is what makes stopping Russian gas imports so difficult and what, combined with the presence of the TurkStream pipeline and Turkey’s LNG import terminals, suggests any attempt to bring those Commission plans to fruition is doomed. Because even if Brussels somehow bans Hungary and Slovakia from buying their gas from whoever they please, it would likely still continue to utilize Turkey as a middleman in gas supply—and gas molecules don’t come with a stamp of origin. The gas that the EU imports from Turkey in the future may be coming from Central Asia, but it may also come from Russia, despite any forceful measures to make sure this doesn’t happen. Just like it happened with oil and imports from India replacing imports from Russia itself.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

Europe’s $2 Trillion Energy Reality Check

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 08, 2025

Europe’s worst blackout on April 28 exposed the gap between soaring renewable energy installations and outdated, underfunded power grids.

Despite record growth in solar and wind capacity, delays in grid upgrades have left over 800 GW of renewable power awaiting connection.

The EU needs up to $2.6 trillion in grid investments by 2050 to support the energy transition.


Last week’s worst blackout Europe has ever seen in modern times was a wake-up call for the EU – and the rest of the world – that regardless of booming renewable energy capacity installations, power supply will not be secure unless grids are capable and flexible enough to accommodate clean energy and meet rising demand.

Renewable energy proponents have been touting for years the record-breaking solar and wind capacity additions in Europe and elsewhere, calling at the same time for more investments in grids. With headline-grabbing record renewable installations and reduction of dependence on fossil fuels, the need for trillions of dollars worth of investment in grids may have been overlooked. Until it was too late and Spain’s grid buckled on April 28, leaving the country, most of Portugal, and, for shorter periods of time, parts of France, without electricity and basically ruining (even more) an entire Monday for millions of people.

Investigations continue into what happened and why Spain’s transmission system was disconnected from the European grid midday Monday.

Whatever the cause, the worst blackout in Europe and the first major system collapse in the era of booming renewable energy installations highlighted the need for investments in storage and grid resilience.

Grid Investments Lag Behind Renewables Additions

While focusing on boosting solar and wind power and their benefit for the environment and the reduction of imports of fossil fuels, policymakers are aware that booming renewable capacity generation needs to have access to the power systems. But investments aren’t enough. If electricity transmission, distribution, and interconnections cannot handle power from the record-breaking solar and wind capacity, the clean energy progress stalls.

As early as last year, think tank Ember said in a report that grid investments in Europe are lagging behind renewable additions and a lack of transmission capacity could hold back the energy transition.

Related: Russia Claims Active Talks With China on New Gas Pipeline Are Underway

“Making sure solar and wind can actually connect to the system is as critical as the panels and turbines themselves,” says Elisabeth Cremona, Energy & Climate Data Analyst at Ember.

“There is no transition without transmission.”

Europe needs to significantly boost grid investments and fully align planning processes with the new reality of the energy transition, according to the clean energy think tank.

At a global level, the situation is pretty much the same—the International Energy Agency (IEA) says that thousands of gigawatts of renewable energy are waiting in grid connection queues.

“This shows grids are becoming a bottleneck for transitions to net zero emissions,” the IEA said, noting that booming investments in renewables contrast with barely changed spending on grid resilience and expansions that have been static at about $300 billion per year over the past decade.

EU Needs Up to $2.6 Trillion in Grid Investment by 2050

That’s too little to support grids that support the rollout of more renewable energy.

The European Commission has estimated that $2.265 trillion (2 trillion euros) to $2.6 trillion (2.3 trillion euros) is required to meet grid needs until 2050, a review of the EU’s electricity grids by the European Court of Auditors showed earlier this year.

“Success hinges on overcoming key challenges, including coordinating grid planning across the EU, streamlining permitting processes and tackling equipment and labour shortages,” the European Court of Auditors (ECA) said in the report.

“A large part of the EU electricity grid dates from the last century: almost half of distribution lines are over 40 years old,” said Keit Pentus-Rosimannus, the ECA Member responsible for this review.

“To ensure the EU’s competitiveness and autonomy, we need modern infrastructure that can support our industry and keep prices affordable.”

This decade alone, the EU needs a cumulative $660 billion (584 billion euros) in grid investments, the Commission estimated in its ‘Grids, the missing link - An EU Action Plan for Grids’.

This “missing link” between the renewables boom and the connection and transmission of clean energy to consumers, as well as the need for much higher investments in battery storage, came to the forefront of the green energy debate after the massive power outage in Spain last week.

Delays in grid development have created a backlog of over 800 GW of wind and solar capacity awaiting connection in Europe, nearly double the current supply, Allianz Research said a month and a half before Europe’s worst blackout.

Moreover, the lack of grid flexibility exacerbates intraday price volatility, with high electricity prices during peak demand and negative prices during off-peak hours, according to Allianz’s analysts.

The EU also needs to improve cross-border electricity interconnections to make grids more flexible and allow countries to import electricity from neighbors when needed. The EU has bumped its interconnection target to?at least 15% by 2030, up from a previous 10% target. This means that an EU member state should be able to import up to 15% of the electricity it consumes from one or more of its neighbors.

By the beginning of 2025, a total of 14 out of the 27 EU countries had exceeded the 2030 target and 5 countries were above the 10% threshold, while 8 countries were still below the previous target from 2020.

“If finished on time, the interconnection projects in the pipeline are expected to further improve interconnectivity levels, but more interconnections are needed in some regions, particularly in view of increasing renewable generation capacities,” the EU says.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

Google and Shell Extend Life of Historic Dutch Wind Farm with Landmark PPA

By Editorial Dept - May 07, 2025   Oilprice.com

Google has signed a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) with Shell to buy the entire output from the 108MW Shell NoordzeeWind offshore wind farm off Egmond aan Zee, Netherlands. The deal marks the first time a corporate PPA has been used to extend the lifespan of an operational wind project.

Originally commissioned in 2007, NoordzeeWind was the Netherlands’ first offshore wind farm. Thanks to the new PPA, Shell will pursue permit extensions and upgrades, potentially keeping the facility running until 2031—four years beyond its expected lifespan.

Shell took full ownership of the project in 2021, having previously developed it in partnership with Vattenfall.

For Google, the deal builds on a growing clean energy portfolio in the Netherlands. The tech giant says it now supports over 1GW of renewable generation in the country. In February 2024, it agreed to purchase 478MW from two offshore wind projects—Hollandse Kust Noord and Hollandse Kust West—both developed by Shell and Eneco. That followed a 153MW PPA signed with Eneco in 2023.

Google operates two data centers in the Netherlands—Eemshaven and Middenmeer—and is constructing a third in Westpoort, reinforcing the company’s need for stable clean power in the region.

 

U.S. Seeks to Downgrade Climate Risk in Global Financial Regulations

By Tsvetana Paraskova - May 09, 2025

The U.S. is proposing that the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Risks (TFCR) at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) be downgraded to a working group, the Financial Times reported on Friday, citing sources briefed on the matter.

The Basel Committee is the top global regulator of the banking sector, and its 45 members comprise central banks and bank supervisors from 28 jurisdictions. For the United States, the representatives on the committee are four institutions – the Fed, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation.

In a sign of the continued retreat from climate issues of the Trump Administration, the U.S. regulatory bodies on the Basel Committee have proposed downgrading the task force, and debates on the matter are on the agenda for a meeting of the committee on Monday, according to FT’s sources.

The task force was created in 2019 and has published several proposals for the assessment of climate-related risks in the financial sector since then.

It is likely that the European Central Bank (ECB) and other European members on the Basel Committee oppose the American proposal of diluting the task force into a working group.

Earlier this year, reports emerged that the US Federal Reserve had blocked an attempt led by the ECB to make climate risks a pillar of global rules for banks and require them to report their strategies on meeting climate commitments.

Members of the Fed have expressed in closed-door meetings at the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) concerns about such rules because they believe the committee might be overreaching with this particular supervision, according sources who spoke to Bloomberg. The Fed officials also feel they have a narrow mandate in this area to regulate climate risk disclosures from the Wall Street banks, the sources added.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

 

UK More Than Doubles Clean Energy Scheme for Offshore Wind

By Charles Kennedy - May 09, 2025

The UK is more than doubling the funding for a so-called Clean Industry Bonus to support offshore wind projects, just as the world’s biggest offshore wind project developer, Orsted, pulled the plug on a major UK plan due to worsened economics.

The UK government announced on Friday that it is bumping up the budget for the Clean Industry Bonus to $722 million (£544 million) from an initial $265 million (£200 million).

Under the Labour government’s plan to make Britain a clean energy superpower, the UK has introduced the Clean Industry Bonus. This scheme will provide financial rewards for offshore wind developers, on the condition they prioritize investment in regions that need it most or in cleaner supply chains, including traditional oil and gas communities, ex-industrial areas, and ports and coastal towns.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is now more than doubling the funding for the scheme after the UK received hundreds of bids, exceeding expectations.

“This additional funding has the potential to help secure billions in private investment in new factories manufacturing components for the offshore wind industry across the UK,” said Ana Musat, Executive Director of Policy at industry association RenewableUK.

“The expansion of the offshore wind supply chain will, in turn, enable us to deliver the massive pipeline of offshore wind projects planned for installation in UK waters at the lowest cost for billpayers in the years ahead.”

The UK's efforts to boost offshore wind development through government incentives come days after Ørsted said it had decided to discontinue the development of the Hornsea 4 offshore wind project in the UK in its current form, due to rising costs.

“The combination of increased supply chain costs, higher interest rates, and increased execution risk has deteriorated the expected value creation of the project,” said Rasmus Errboe, Group President and CEO of Ørsted.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

 

Nord Stream 2 Enters Debt Restructuring Deal with Creditors

By Charles Kennedy - May 09, 2025

Nord Stream 2, the Switzerland-based company behind the gas pipeline project, has reached an agreement with its creditors to restructure its debt, a Swiss court in Zug said on Friday.

Friday, May 9, was the deadline set by the court for Nord Stream 2 to restructure its debt and repay smaller creditors, or be declared bankrupt. 

Bankruptcy was avoided thanks to the debt restructuring deal announced by the court today.

Nord Stream 2, an $11-billion project to carry Russian natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Baltic Sea following the Nord Stream route, was built at the end of the 2010s. However, the pipeline was never put into operation after Germany axed the certification process in early 2022 following the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Russia, for its part, shut down Nord Stream 1 indefinitely in early September of 2022, claiming an inability to repair gas turbines because of the Western sanctions.

Gas leaks in each of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines in the Baltic Sea were discovered at the end of September 2022.

Debates on the pipelines continue despite the fact that they haven’t shipped any gas to Germany for more than two and a half years.

In March this year, the then German economy and energy minister Robert Habeck said that ideas to resurrect the Nord Stream gas pipelines from Russia to Germany were the “wrong direction of discussion”. Speculation has intensified that a revival of the pipelines could be a part of a deal for the end of the war in Ukraine.

The EU, however, is seeking to end the bloc’s dependency on Russian energy, and unveiled a roadmap this week to phase out imports of Russian oil, gas, and nuclear energy by 2027.

But Slovakia and Hungary have criticized the EU’s plan, claiming that it is “economic suicide” that will hurt the EU more than Russia.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

 

Wall Street Billionaire Bets on Putin’s Last Gas Pipeline

By Julianne Geiger - May 09, 2025

Paul Singer’s Elliott Management is kicking the tires on a deal that would have been unthinkable just a few years ago: buying a stake in a pipeline that carries Russian natural gas into Europe.

The pipeline in question is the Bulgarian extension of TurkStream—Russia’s last functioning gas artery to the continent. With the rest of its gas empire sanctioned, sabotaged, or politically radioactive, TurkStream is the Kremlin’s last straw clutched tightly in the hand of European demand. Now, Elliott is reportedly sniffing around that straw, according to the Wall Street Journal, possibly as part of a broader play to scoop up infrastructure assets from Bulgaria’s state-owned gas operator Bulgartransgaz, including data centers and cables.

The move, still in early-stage talks, comes at a curious time. Washington is posturing hard on energy independence and Russia containment. But Singer—hedge fund tycoon, Republican megadonor, and serial corporate agitator—has never been one to follow the script. Elliott is famous for making governments squirm (see: Argentina), and it’s currently pressuring BP to lower spending and ditch transition plans and get back to pumping more crude. It’s also trying to carve up Phillips 66 while simultaneously eyeing a deal for Citgo, Phillips' rival.

So if Singer wants to backdoor his way into Europe’s energy bloodstream through Bulgaria, well, that tracks.

Politically, the investment could offer Bulgaria two things: cash to shore up its creaky grid, and a diplomatic love note to the Trump camp. The thinking in Sofia is that an American hedge fund stake might protect the asset from future sanctions. That’s optimism, or spin, depending on your mood.

For Moscow, the symbolism is rich: a U.S. fund helping revive Russian gas exports? But it’s also pure Singer—betting on assets that others are too squeamish to touch, then squeezing out value with a crowbar and a balance sheet.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

 

Shell’s Deepwater Dreams Hit Delay in the Gulf

By Julianne Geiger - May 09, 2025, 

Shell’s plans to juice output from its deepwater Perdido development in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico just ran into a delay-shaped pothole. Two new wells intended to lift production from the Great White unit—one of the stars of the Perdido complex—won’t come online until the end of the year, the company confirmed this week. That’s a shift from the original timeline, which had all three wells humming by April.

One of the three did go live in March, but the other two are lagging. All told, the trio was expected to bring up to 22,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) in new production when fully operational. For a platform like Perdido—which has a peak output capacity of 125,000 boepd—that’s not game-changing, but still material.

Shell, which operates the Perdido hub with a 35% stake, hasn’t specified what caused the delay. Chevron and others round out the remaining ownership.

Perdido has been a cornerstone of U.S. deepwater production since first oil in 2010, situated in some of the deepest waters the industry taps. Shell has leaned into the project’s long-term potential, announcing late last year that it would drill two more wells in the nearby Silvertip unit. Those are expected to add another 6,000 boepd—eventually. First oil from Silvertip isn’t expected until 2026.

The Gulf of Mexico remains a key profit engine for Shell, especially as the company trims back on green-energy projects and focuses on what it calls “value over volume.” Translation: they’re sticking with barrels that pay. But timelines slipping—especially in the ultra-costly offshore sector—can dent near-term output goals and shareholder confidence.

Delays happen. But with the energy transition now more of a polite suggestion than a mandate, getting every barrel out of places like Perdido remains priority number one.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

Column: After Ukraine deal, US turns its critical minerals gaze to Africa

Reuters | May 7, 2025 |

Rwanda, Africa. Stock image.

Away from the headlines around the minerals deal with Ukraine, the United States has pursued a potentially even more significant critical metals deal in the Great Lakes region of Africa.


The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo reached out to the Donald Trump administration with a Ukrainian-style proposal in February in response to the rapid advance of the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group in the east of the country,

The US government has responded enthusiastically with a flurry of negotiations aimed at ending a decades-long conflict born out of the Rwandan genocide of 1994.

The political momentum is building towards a potential peace deal between Congo and Rwanda as soon as May, to be accompanied by bilateral minerals deals between both countries and the United States.

At stake are the mineral riches of North and South Kivu provinces, a major but highly problematic source of metals such as tin, tungsten and coltan.
Saving the Bisie tin mine

The M23 rebels seized control of Goma and Bukavu, eastern Congo’s two largest cities, in February. By early March, they had advanced rapidly westwards to Walikale, the location of the Bisie tin mine.

Bisie is a poster child for ethical mining in the Congo, having transitioned from an artisanal site to a fully-modernized operation that is the world’s fourth largest producer of tin concentrates.

Bisie’s operator, Alphamin Resources, quickly shut down and evacuated the site as M23 rebels closed in, sending tin prices into a frenzy and threatening the Congolese government with the loss of a major source of revenue.

The fall of Walikale seems to have accelerated direct talks between the US government, Congo and Rwanda, resulting in M23 fighters withdrawing in what they presented as a goodwill gesture ahead of Qatar-brokered peace talks.

Alphamin resumed operations at Bisie on April 15.
Armed riches

Bisie is the only official-sector mine in North and South Kivu provinces. Everything else is artisanal.

Researchers from The International Peace Information Service have mapped over 2,800 sites in eastern Congo since 2009 and collected information from 829 active sites that it estimated employed some 132,000 miners between 2021 and 2023.

Of the sites surveyed, 85% were mining gold and most of the rest digging for the 3T minerals – tin, tungsten and tantalum, the latter occurring as coltan ore.

Video: Conflict in Congo threatens supply of key mineral for smartphones and AI

The IPIS estimates that 61% of miners at these sites were affected by “armed interference”, defined as coercive rent-taking, from one of the many armed groups operating in the region, not least the Congolese army.

This has been a problem for many years. Indeed, Congo was the template for what became known as “conflict minerals” legislation such as the 2010 Dodds-Frank Act requiring US companies to adhere to responsible sourcing rules.

Sadly, not much has changed on the ground.

The M23 rebels themselves are involved in the minerals trade. Artisanal producers of coltan in the town of Rubaya pay a 15% tax to the group, Reuters journalists found on a visit to rebel-controlled areas.

The seepage of metals across Congo’s eastern borders is a major problem, not just for the Congolese government, but also for Western buyers due to the threat of conflict minerals contaminating the official supply chain.

Gates, Bezos-backed critical minerals explorer to ‘go big’ on Congo – report
The great railway game

Congo’s minerals wealth is undisputed and its potential rewards far more immediate than from the deal with Ukraine.

A peace deal between Rwanda, Congo and the M23 rebel group would be an important first step to restoring order to the troubled Kivu provinces.

But there are plenty of other armed groups actively operating in the region and it is unclear how far the United States would want to commit to any military presence to deter them.

The prize, however, is tantalizingly large.

Congo is also one of the world’s richest sources of copper and cobalt, which are produced far away from the Great Lakes region in the southern province of Katanga.

This part of Congo’s mineral wealth is largely controlled by Chinese operators, which ship both raw materials and finished metal back to China.

The West would love to loosen China’s grip.

A lot of investment is going into the Lobito Corridor project, which will rehabilitate and extend a railway line linking the Angolan port of Lobito with Congo’s copper-belt mines.

The aim is to use the railway as a generator of economic development and also open up a western transport route for Congo’s metals.

China’s response is a $1.4 billion deal to upgrade the Tanzania-Zambia railway line that transports Chinese-produced metals eastwards to the port of Dar es Salaam.

Railways have until now defined the great minerals game being played out between East and West in the heart of Africa.

A minerals-for-security deal in the north of the country would open a whole new front in that strategic competition and a new chapter in Congo’s history.

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Andy Home, a columnist for Reuters.)

(Editing by Barbara Lewis)