The world's first near-real-time prediction model for earthquake-triggered landslides has been developed, initiating a new era in hazard prevention

Science China Press

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(A) Coseismic landslide inventories within the Alpine-Himalayan and Circum-Pacific belts. (B) The enlarged view of highlighted 38 earthquakes. The five Köppen-Geiger climate zones are here simplified into three for region division: cold (polar plus snow); temperate (warm plus arid); and equatorial. Beachballs signify primary seismic rupture dynamics.

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Credit: ©Science China Press

Earthquake-triggered landslides are a major secondary hazard, often responsible for tens of thousands of fatalities and billions of dollars in economic losses each year. Yet rapid identification of where landslides will occur remains a challenge: remote sensing can map past failures but relies on cloud-free imagery that may not be available during the critical hours after a quake.

 

To overcome these limitations, Prof. Xuanmei Fan’s team at State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection (Chengdu University of Technology) compiled the most comprehensive global database of coseismic landslides to date, 398,698 mapped events across 38 major earthquakes since the 1970s. Each landslide polygon was rigorously validated integrating remote sensing-based change detection and expert manual review to ensure boundary accuracy and temporal consistency.

 

Building on this inventory, the researchers engineered a suite of 17 topographical, geo-ecological, hydrological, and seismological indicators. Spatial and statistical analysis revealed that peak ground acceleration, slope, and lithology are the key drivers of coseismic landsliding in global scale, with secondary influence from relief and terrain roughness. Moreover, they partitioned the global inventory into the Circum-Pacific and Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belts, each further divided into cold, temperate, and equatorial climate zones, revealing distinct dominant controls in each region and providing a basis for optimizing regional model parameters.

 

Another core innovation is the prediction model based on multi-scale fully convolutional regression network enhanced by channel-spatial attention modules. This architecture enables to generate and focus on the most discriminative features via multi-dimensional inputs, achieving rapid inference of landslide occurrence. In this work, two model variants were trained and tested.

(a) Regional models, tuned to local climatic and tectonic zones (e.g., equatorial and. temperate regions), deliver the highest accuracy where sufficient training samples supplied.

(b) The global model ensures robust performance in data-sparse, cold regions by leveraging the full diversity of global events.

 

Using a leave-one-out cross-validation on all 38 events, the framework consistently achieved spatial accuracy exceeding 82% and processed each scenario in less than one minute on two Tesla V100 GPUs.

 

“Our deep learning model enable to provide near-real-time probability maps of landslide occurrence immediately following an earthquake without any prior labels” says Prof. Fan. “This capability can guide first responders and hazard managers to the most at-risk areas within the crucial early hours.”

 

Prof. John Jansen, co-author from Czech Academy of Sciences, emphasizes the operational potential: “By integrating our model outputs with population and infrastructure overlays, we can estimate exposed at-risk communities in seconds, far before high-resolution imagery becomes available.”

 

Looking ahead, the team plans to incorporate rainfall forecasts and aftershock sequences into the model, moving toward a unified “multi-hazard” early warning system. They are also exploring deployment via cloud-based platforms and integration with unmanned aerial and ground sensors to further shrink the time between earthquake occurrence and hazard prediction.

 

“This work represents a paradigm shift from retrospective susceptibility mapping to proactive, predictive prediction of earthquake-triggered landslides,” says Prof. Hakan Tanyas, co-author from University of Twente. “It opens the door to real-time, global-scale decision support in seismic hazard zones.”

 

With its combination of a unique global landslide database, rigorous mechanistic analysis, and cutting-edge deep learning, this research lays the foundation for next-generation geohazard risk reduction tools, transforming how societies prepare for and respond to the destructive aftermath of major earthquakes.

 

The predictions of two cold regions are generated by global model, whereas the predictions of temperate and equatorial regions are produced by regional models. The model based on global data contains a more comprehensive and varied database, yielding more-balanced parameter training and ensuring a lower limit of prediction for any outcome. While the regional-scale model can optimize parameter weighting under similar background data and enhance the upper limit of targeted prediction, it is naturally more prone to the limiting effects of small sample size.

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©Science China Press

See the article:

Deep learning can predict global earthquake-triggered landslides

https://doi.org/10.1093/nsr/nwaf179

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Journal

National Science Review

DOI

10.1093/nsr/nwaf179 

 

ECNU Review of Education study highlights middle-tier instructional leaders as key drivers of educational reform

A groundbreaking study examines the transformative role of middle-tier instructional leaders in improving teaching quality at scale.

ECNU Review of Education

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Middle-tier leaders play a vital role in strengthening teaching by supporting educators, fostering collaboration, and bridging policy and practice.

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Credit: Bart Everson from Wikimedia Commons Image Source Link: https://openverse.org/image/dc95175d-b2f5-4f20-9610-32c04ca19e58?q=Teachers+meeting&p=11\

Middle-tier leaders provide on-the-ground support through coaching, feedback, and professional development, reducing teacher isolation. For instance, in Delhi, mentor teachers organize learning sessions and offer feedback based on observations. These leaders also act as knowledge brokers, fostering collaboration and sharing best practices. In Rwanda, they facilitate best practice sharing, while in Jordan, supervisors use evidence-based models to guide teachers. Additionally, they bridge policy and practice, translating policy changes into actionable steps and advocating for teachers’ needs. In Shanghai, they conduct action research to inform policies. Unlike one-off training, the middle-tier approach emphasizes relationship-based support, building trust and networks among teachers, fostering a culture of continuous improvement and shared responsibility.

The study documents successful implementations across diverse contexts, from low- to high-income countries. In Wales, the National Academy for Educational Leadership empowers practicing headteachers to engage in system leadership activities. In Rwanda, leaders of learning have significantly improved headteacher competencies, with monitoring data showing a 60% increase in competency standards between 2018 and 2020. This article was made available online on March 19 2025 in ECNU Review of Education.

Despite their successes, middle-tier leaders face challenges such as time constraints and the need to shift from accountability frameworks to collaborative approaches. The study emphasizes the importance of empowering these leaders through professional development, clear role definitions, and long-term support. Conducted by researchers from the UNESCO International Institute for Educational Planning (IIEP) and Education Development Trust, the study underscores how these leaders act as pivotal change agents across diverse educational systems, bridging the gap between policy and practice.

The research concludes that investing in middle-tier instructional leaders is a cost-effective and sustainable strategy for improving educational quality. It advocates for further exploration of how these roles can be adapted to different contexts and scaled effectively. As one researcher notes, “Middle-tier leaders are the oil in the machine of education systems, fostering feedback loops and building local knowledge ecosystems that drive continuous improvement.”

For policymakers, the study offers evidence-based strategies to enhance teacher performance and system coherence, emphasizing the transformative potential of middle-tier leaders in creating high-performing educational systems. The study calls for further exploration into sustaining motivation and balancing formal roles with intrinsic incentives.

 

***

Reference                                                  

DOI: 10.1177/20965311251329338

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Journal

ECNU Review of Education

DOI

10.1177/20965311251329338 

Method of Research

Case study

Subject of Research

Not applicable

Article Title

Improving the Quality of Teaching at Scale: Middle-Tier Instructional Leaders as Change Agents

 

The Stockholm declaration for more sustainable chemistry

Stockholm University

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Paul Anastas with the Stockholm declaration.
Photo: Liisa Eelsoo

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Credit: Photo: Liisa Eelsoo

Chemistry needs to become more sustainable and urgent actions are needed. That is the main message of the Stockholm Declaration on Chemistry for the Future that was launched at the Nobel Prize Museum on 23 May.

On 19-22 May 2025, The Nobel Symposium on “Chemistry for Sustainability: Fundamental Advances” was held outside of Stockholm. The symposium was organised by Stockholm University Center for Circular and Sustainable Systems (SUCCeSS). Around thirty world-leading researchers in sustainable chemistry and thirty specially invited researchers from Swedish academia and industry met to discuss how research in chemistry can contribute to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Before the Nobel symposium, the invited speakers co-authored the Stockholm Declaration on Chemistry for the Future, with input from SUCCeSS. A physical signing ceremony was held at the symposium, and the website for digital signing was opened.

The Stockholm Declaration on Chemistry for the Future stresses that chemistry is – and has been – vital to advancing human well-being. But at the same time, chemistry has caused unintentional harm to people and the planet. The declaration states that there is need to ensure that chemical products are safe and sustainable to eliminate waste by full material/energy utilization, utilizing non-depleting materials, creating integrative systems etc.

Five ways to transformation
Five essential elements are listed to make this transformation:
1. The goals of reducing or eliminating harm to people and the planet must be integrated in chemical products and processes.

2. There is need to act now. Inaction and status quo are more dangerous for people and the planet than transition.

3. Teachers, students and practitioners of chemistry need to be trained to integrate health and sustainability in their work.

4. Chemical data and information must be fully available and accessible to all. There is need for transparency.

5. Government policies on the chemical enterprise must be aligned with sustainability and health.

The declaration contains a call to action, urging scientists, industry, educators, students and policy makers to collaborate on implementing solutions for human well-being while preserving and protecting the environment. “By embracing this vision, we can harness chemistry´s full potential as a catalyst for a fairer, more sustainable, and resilient world.”

Launch at the Nobel Prize Museum
On 23 May the Stockholm Declaration on Chemistry for the Future was officially launched at the Nobel Prize Museum in Stockholm.

Paul Anastas, professor of chemistry at Yale University and senior advisor at SUCCeSS, has been the driving force behind the work with the declaration.
“The essence of The Stockholm Declaration on Chemistry for the Future is the imperative of transforming invention into impact by unleashing the power of chemistry to improve people’s lives by implementing it at scale now,” says Paul Anastas.

Ben Feringa, Nobel laureate in chemistry 2016 and professor at University of Groningen, is one of the signatories of the declaration and he also attended the launch event.

“The Stockholm declaration is an urgent call to join forces to re-invent chemistry in order to build our sustainable future. Chemistry as the "creating and central science" will make the difference in society and industry in the years ahead teaching our young talents and providing breakthrough discoveries for sustainable innovations,” says Ben Feringa.

Berit Olofsson, professor of organic chemistry at Stockholm University and co-director of SUCCeSS, adds:

”The organisation of the Nobel Symposium on Chemistry for Sustainability: Fundamental Advances was an important milestone for SUCCeSS. We are proud to be closely connected to this important declaration, which will have a large impact on re-inventing chemistry towards a sustainable future."

The Stockholm Declaration on Chemistry for the Future welcomes scientists and others working in chemistry to read, sign and spread the declaration.

Read the Stockholm Declaration on Chemistry for the Future

Read article on Stockholm University web on the declaration

Read more about Stockholm University Center for Circular and Sustainable Systems (SUCCeSS).

Read more about The Nobel Symposium on Chemistry for Sustainability: Fundamental Advances, 19-22 May 2025

 

Contact:
Paul Anastas, professor of chemistry at Yale University and senior advisor at SUCCeSS
E-mail: paul.anastas@yale.edu Phone: ++1203-436-5127
Berit Olofsson, professor of organic chemistry at Stockholm University and co-director of SUCCeSS
E-mail: berit.olofsson@su.se Phone: ++46 8-674 72 64

Photos from the launch and the signing of the declaration can be find here.
(Contact Berit Olofsson if there are questions related to the photos.)

New research reveals unexpected benefit of tariffs – managers make better investment decisions

Study of firms in China shows trade shocks have positive disciplinary effect on managerial behaviour

University of Bath

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New research from the University of Bath has identified an unexpected side-effect of the imposition of trade tariffs – they focus cash-strapped managers’ minds on efficiency and improve their investment decisions.

“Tariffs and trade shocks are overwhelmingly bad for companies, trade, the consumer and the global economy – but our research shows there is one positive aspect – they can influence managerial investment decision-making for the better,” said Dr Hanwen Sun, Associate Professor in Finance at the university’s School of Management.

The research team from the University of Bath and Jinan University in Guangzhou, China examined the investment efficiency of more than 2,000 firms in China following the imposition of trade sanctions such as tariffs and anti-dumping measures, known as ‘trade defense instruments’ (TDIs). The study noted more than 1,300 TDIs were imposed on China between 2003 and 2016.

“It seems counter-intuitive – that there could be an upside. There is, after all, a wealth of evidence to suggest TDIs are very costly, harming company profits and the wealth of nations. But what we found is that managers who found themselves operating in a suddenly hostile environment responded by improving efficiency, chiefly through making more considered decisions about where to invest for the future,” Professor Wenjing Li from Jinan University said.

The study – Trade shocks and investment efficiency - focused on free cash flow and the effect of it being constrained by tariffs and sanctions. Dr Sun said they found that investment efficiency improved in around two years after TDIs were imposed.

“Investment efficiency is related to free cash flow. If cash is abundant, it can lead to over-investment or ill-considered investment, or even empire building by ambitious managers who may not be operating in the best interests of a company. When that manager is confronted suddenly by tariffs or sanctions that put a large question mark over free cashflow, our research suggests they will rein in their ambitions and consider more carefully where they are putting their money for the future,” Dr Sun said.

The researchers discovered that the effect was particularly pronounced for firms subjected to higher penalty tax rates and for those producing higher-value goods targeted by TDIs.

Additionally, TDIs have the effect of intensifying competition in domestic markets as doors to overseas markets close, further constraining over-investment and focusing managers’ minds.  

“These mechanisms illustrate how trade shocks influence corporate decision-making by reducing managerial discretion and directing resources towards more lucrative projects, thereby mitigating inefficiencies and improving resource allocation – in short, they serve as an external disciplinary mechanism that ultimately may benefit the companies,” Dr Sun said.

Dr Sun’s co-authors were Professor Wenjing Li, Dr Yuanhuai Peng, and Professor Youchao Tan of the School of Management at Jinan University in Guangzhou, China.

ENDS/tr

Notes to editors 

• For more information please contact the University of Bath Press office at press@bath.ac.uk

 

The University of Bath

The University of Bath is one of the UK’s leading universities, with a reputation for high-impact research, excellence in education, student experience and graduate prospects. 

We are ranked in the top 10 of all of the UK’s major university guides. We are also ranked among the world’s top 10% of universities, placing 150th in the QS World University Rankings 2025. Bath was rated in the world’s top 10 universities for sport in the QS World University Rankings by Subject 2024.

Research from Bath is helping to change the world for the better. Across the University’s three Faculties and School of Management, our research is making an impact in society, leading to low-carbon living, positive digital futures, and improved health and wellbeing. Find out all about our Research with Impact: https://www.bath.ac.uk/campaigns/research-with-impact/

 

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Journal

Journal of Corporate Finance

DOI

10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2025.102795 

Method of Research

Data/statistical analysis

Subject of Research

People

Article Title

Trade shocks and investment efficiency

 

Humans are seasonal creatures, according to our circadian rhythms

University of Michigan

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Researchers from the University of Michigan tracked the activity (black step counts) and circadian clocks (red lines) for two medical interns in the Intern Health Study. The differences between the graphs underscore how differently shift work can affect different individuals over seasons.

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Credit: R. Kim et al, npj Digital Medicine (2025) DOI: 10.1038/s41746-025-01678-z

It's tempting to think that, with our fancy electric lights and indoor bedrooms, humanity has evolved beyond the natural influence of sunlight when it comes to our sleep routines. 

But new research from the University of Michigan shows that our circadian rhythms are still wild at heart, tracking the seasonal changes in daylight.

"Humans really are seasonal, even though we might not want to admit that in our modern context," said study author Ruby Kim, U-M postdoctoral assistant professor of mathematics. "Day length, the amount of sunlight we get, it really influences our physiology. The study shows that our biologically hardwired seasonal timing affects how we adjust to changes in our daily schedules."

This finding could enable new ways to probe and understand seasonal affective disorder, a type of depression that's connected to seasonal changes. It could also open new areas of inquiry in a range of other health issues that are connected to the alignment of our sleep schedules and circadian clocks.

For example, researchers—including the study's senior author, Daniel Forger—have previously shown that our moods are strongly affected by how well our sleep schedules align with our circadian rhythms.

"This work shows a lot of promise for future findings," Kim said of the new study published in the journal npj Digital Medicine. "This may have deeper implications for mental health issues, like mood and anxiety, but also metabolic and cardiovascular conditions as well."

The research also showed there is a genetic component of this seasonality in humans, which could help explain the vast differences in how strongly individuals are affected by changes in day length.

"For some people they might be able to adapt better, but for other people it could be a whole lot worse," said Forger, U-M professor of math and director of the Michigan Center for Applied and Interdisciplinary Mathematics.

Exploring this genetic component will help researchers and doctors understand where individuals fall on that spectrum, but getting to that point will take more time and effort. For now, this study is an early but important step that reframes how we conceive of human circadian rhythms.

"A lot of people tend to think of their circadian rhythms as a single clock," Forger said. "What we're showing is that there's not really one clock, but there are two. One is trying to track dawn and the other is trying to track dusk, and they're talking to each other."

Kim, Forger and their colleagues revealed that people's circadian rhythms were tuned into the seasonality of sunlight by studying sleep data from thousands of people using wearable health devices, like Fitbits. Participants were all medical residents completing a one-year internship who had enrolled in the Intern Health Study, funded by the National Institutes of Health.

Interns are shift workers whose schedules change frequently, meaning their sleep schedules do as well. Furthermore, these schedules are often at odds with the natural cycles of day and night.

The fact that circadian rhythms in this population exhibited a seasonal dependence is a compelling argument for just how hardwired this feature is in humans, which isn't altogether surprising, the researchers said. 

There's a lot of evidence from studies of fruit flies and rodents that animals possess seasonal circadian clocks, Forger said, and other researchers have thought humans' circadian clocks may behave similarly. Now, the U-M team has provided some of the strongest support for the idea yet in observing how that seasonality plays out in a large, real-world study.

"I think it actually makes a lot of sense. Brain physiology has been at work for millions of years trying to track dusk and dawn," Forger said. "Then industrialization comes along in the blink of evolution's eye and, right now, we're still racing to catch up." 

Participants in the Intern Health Study also provide a saliva sample for DNA testing, which enabled Kim and Forger's team to include a genetic component of their study. Genetic studies led by other researchers have identified a specific gene that plays an important role in how other animals' circadian clocks track seasonal changes.

Humans share this gene, which allowed the U-M team to identify a small percentage of interns with slight variations in the genetic makeup of that gene. For that group of people, shift work was more disruptive to the alignment of their circadian clocks and sleep schedules over seasons.

Again, this raises many questions especially about health implications and the influence of shift work on different individuals. But these are questions the researchers plan to explore in the future.

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Journal

npj Digital Medicine

DOI

10.1038/s41746-025-01678-z 

Article Title

Seasonal timing and interindividual differences in shiftwork adaptation

Article Publication Date

28-May-2025